What Sussan Ley's leadership means for the Liberals

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A historic day for the Liberal Party.

After a crushing election defeat, the party has elected its first female leader.

Susan Lee has beat Angus Taylor in a tight contest for the leadership, while Ted O'Brien has comfortably claimed the deputy leader role.

It comes after a crushing election defeat and as the party looks to rebuild and has arguments about the direction it will take.

So what does this mean for the direction of the Liberal Party?

Welcome to Politics Now.

Hi, I'm Patricia Carvallis.

And I'm David Lipson.

And David is in charge of all things Canberra.

So this is a man who is perfectly positioned to talk today.

David, huge day here in Parliament.

What a day.

What a time to be reporting on Australian federal politics.

Just extraordinary.

You know, we had an election result, was really a landslide in a way that we weren't expecting.

We were expecting that result to be quite close.

What we've had today is a vote on the Liberal leadership that is actually agonisingly close.

Agonisingly is the perfect word for what it is.

So these are the numbers.

So it was Angus Taylor versus Susan Lee.

Angus Taylor did, as we know and I've said in this podcast, run on a joint ticket is how he presented it with Jacinda Number Jimpa Price.

But as Liberal Party sources have told me, there is no joint tickets in the Liberal Party.

You run for the leader and then there is a separate version of trying to elect a deputy leader.

And so what happened is Angus Taylor versus Susan Lee stood up and the results were this close.

29 votes to 25.

Now, the reason that makes everyone a little nervous is, of course, the composition of the party room, David, is only based on Andrew Hearst, the Federal Liberal Party director's call on what looked to be their seats.

So it's not finally the AEC's numbers, although I think he's probably got it pretty close.

He's, you know, he's conservative, they've gone.

Okay, that's one thing.

And then, secondly, people who got to vote, people like a Liberal senator from New South Wales, Holly Hughes, who is no fan of Angus Taylor, got a vote.

But as of the middle of the year, my friend, they're no longer in the party room.

Yeah, Linda Reynolds as well is another one.

And so 29, 25, it's just a few votes in it.

But then if you take out a vote for Linda Reynolds and a vote for Holly Hughes, you get to sort of 27,

25, maybe 27, 26.

You're getting very close to one or two people swinging.

So what that means in any political party is you've got two sides who are, you know, agonisingly close to power.

One has it for now.

What happens in the future?

We don't exactly know.

But, you know, perhaps we should, just for the uninitiated, just talk a little bit about Susan Lee, who she is.

She's been the deputy leader of the party through the Dutton opposition.

She has been in the parliament for 21 years, I think it is.

She was, you know, she holds a regional seat.

She was a pilot.

She got an economics degree as a mature age student, so she's well versed in that.

Well she's a mum of three, I think grandmum of six.

She's not as conservative as Angus Taylor and that's, I guess this, well we heard a lot during the campaign, Sliding Doors election, this is a moment for the party because they've gone with Susan Lee instead of Angus Taylor and Piquet

what a difference will that mean for the for the party, do you think?

I think it's significant actually but it was close and that's the issue.

So I think to say that the party has taken a moderate direction is correct because she won a majority.

You know, a win's a win.

You don't kind of half win, you win, right?

So she's won the leadership.

She stood, as did Ted O'Brien, separately for the deputy leadership.

On very much, we're taking the party to the centre.

We believe that we need to do the hard work and take the lessons.

We've lost young people, we've lost women, we need to do this work, reconnect with average Australia, modern Australia.

she used the word modern a lot.

So they have made an active decision to go down this road.

But the fact that it's so close shows that not everyone agrees with that approach.

Now I know what some of the Conservatives think.

They've told me.

Their view is actually that it's not that the party has abandoned anyone, that they ran a crappy campaign,

that they were scrappy, that they were out-campaigned, that their campaign infrastructure was crap, their ads were crap.

So they're very negative about the sort of what they put out there, but they never

don't fundamentally think it's about direction.

They don't think their direction is an issue.

So I think that will become an ongoing conversation inside the Liberal Party.

I don't think it's settled just because Susan Lee has been elected, although it does at least initially provide the public with a bit of an answer.

Hey, we've turned to a woman now.

We can't go through this podcast, David, without reflecting the fact that this is a party and it has to wear this baggage that overlooked Julie Bishop, who was

so popular in the public in modern Australia, in those suburbs.

They overlooked her.

They have had issues around gender and respect for women in leadership.

I think a lot of them would concede that.

They have now turned to a woman in Susan Lee, who is really experienced.

I mean, I first met her when she was a junior minister in the Howard government.

That's how long I've been around, but also that she's been around.

And so she is really experienced.

This is the first woman,

female leader

of the Liberal Party in 81 years.

It's the first time they've had a woman.

So, I mean, that alone is a hugely significant moment.

The question is,

has she been set up to fail?

Because this is a huge, huge task that she now has ahead of us.

And, you know, this term, the glass cliff, you know, is that what we're seeing?

Yeah.

Look,

she put her hand up.

She wants to go in there.

That's her agency as a woman.

And so has she been set up to fail?

Well,

anyone who puts themselves in that position right now has, historically speaking, a high chance of failing, whether it's Angus Taylor or her, Dan Tee, and anyone else.

They really do.

So there's nothing extraordinary about that being a thing that only would happen to her.

It would happen to anyone.

Of course, if they spend the next six months tearing her down,

I think

that would land very badly, don't you think, on the public?

Absolutely.

Tearing down their first female leader.

Like they've only just elected her.

Now she's going to speak soon.

We're just, we're bringing you this podcast before that even happens.

There's a few other things worth mentioning.

Just internal Pajipa Price, I have to mention this, who came in into the Liberal Party room, annoyed the Nationals,

annoyed some Liberals.

because she was queue jumping.

That's how they described it to me.

She runs apparently on this joint ticket, but there is no such thing as a joint ticket because they have to run individually.

What happens when the deputy leadership comes up?

Does she stand up?

She doesn't.

I mean, this is what's quite extraordinary.

She came in with a head full of steam, saying she was going to fight for her party, fight for Australians that needed it, that she was there.

Her and Angus Taylor did this social media video sort of fireside chat talking about the need for unity and all this sort of thing.

It looked like, you know, that was a done deal.

And then when it came to the vote, she didn't contest.

She backed out.

So the deputy leadership of the Liberal Party came down to Ted O'Brien and Phil Thompson, and Ted O'Brien won it easily, 38 to 16.

Ted O'Brien, of course, is the architect of the coalition's nuclear policy, which is a whole nother thing.

And, you know, when we talk about going forward, the things they've got to work out, that's probably up the top of the list or up near the top of the list, that along with net zero.

What do they do with nuclear?

And this is the tricky terrain that Susan Lee and now Ted O'Brien have to traverse.

But I guess what's interesting, just going back to Jacinta Numpa Gimpa Price, is

do you think that her coming across, jumping on that joint ticket with Angus Taylor,

A, harmed his chances today and B will harm his standing longer term?

Did it harm his chances today?

Absolutely.

And I've had that verified by several Liberal Party sources who told told me that's how it landed on them.

Like, hey, what?

So it did not go well.

That's not to say they all, there's a lot of people who recognise she's an excellent fundraiser, campaigner.

The base loves her.

Lots of positive things that they will say about her.

It's not like all negative.

But the way he just, you know, she all of a sudden jumped ship and all of a sudden was running when she wasn't even in their party room and all of a sudden wanted to be a leader of their party room without even being to one meeting

did land badly on him him because he clearly, you know, was the architect of this ticket.

And they're even angry at the concept of a ticket, right?

I mean, you notice that even Susan Lee clearly had talked to Ted O'Brien and they talked about it.

They never really presented as a joint ticket publicly so much, even though I think in the party room they said, oh, we'd be a good combination.

So they were a bit different about the way they framed it.

You asked me one more question, though, which is, will it harm him in the long term?

Angus Taylor has so many enemies that I find it baffling sometimes.

And as someone said to me, it is so brutal in the New South Wales Party.

Like their factions, you know, we talk about Labour factions a lot, don't we?

But they have them too.

And in New South Wales, the Moderates versus the Conservatives versus another part of the right who are Scott Morrison's people

were...

It's brutal, isn't it?

It's so brutal.

And New South Wales in particular.

I mean, New South Wales.

Oh, they've got such nice weather.

They've got nice weather.

They don't have a good sort of party structure or system in New South Wales.

Have trouble getting candidates.

We saw that in a serious way in 2022, but some issues in the recent election as well.

And yeah, the factions don't mess around, shall we say.

So, you know, I think that'll be really interesting to watch.

Well, yes, what Jacinta Napa Kipa Price does.

She's an ambitious woman.

She's talented, as you say.

Is she waiting in the wings for something else?

Will she be driving the direction of the party in a direction, let's say, that may not help the Liberal Party and the metro seats where they really need to

win seats?

I think the answer to that is she will be driving it in a more conservative direction.

But beyond that, what does it mean for Angus Taylor?

What does it mean for others waiting in the wings?

I think we've really got to give Susan Lee

an opportunity to push through here.

And she's experienced.

She's won the contest.

Yes, it's close.

But, you know, a couple of things to say, I guess, in her favour.

She's a regional MP.

Sometimes as a Liberal, that doesn't help you with the Nats, but this is something else they've got coming up, right?

They've got to form the coalition agreement or not.

There's

some, particularly in the Nationals, who are saying maybe now's the time to split.

So Susan Lee, I think, is probably pretty well versed to

kind of broker such a deal.

She's, you know, certainly those in her camp say that she's collegiate in a way that Peter Dutton wasn't, that, you know, he was such a dominant force in the party that people kind of just fell into line.

Susan Lee is going to listen.

She's going to sort of,

you know, I guess...

make deals,

broker agreements, work out middle ground, all of that sort of thing.

But yeah,

this is difficult stuff going forward.

So later today, she'll do her press conference and we'll get some indication.

I suspect that she will be

welcoming to the tent.

People like Jacinda Nuba Jimba Price on her front bench.

That's just my call based on knowing Susan for a very long time.

I think she'll play

the sort of game of bringing people in rather than freezing them out, which I think would be smart.

You know, people say, where is she most dangerous, right?

Dangerous to the incumbent leader, because Jacinda is such a force of nature.

And that's a compliment I'm giving.

Like, she is a force of nature.

The fact that people talk about her non-stop speaks volumes, doesn't it?

That I reckon keeping her on the front bench, you know, and

not trying to repress her would be smart

rather than being petty about it.

It'll be interesting to see how Angus Taylor now positions.

I was just about to say, you know,

does he keep the Shadow Treasury portfolio?

If he doesn't, if he goes quiet,

you'd have to wonder what he's plotting and planning.

Or, you know, if he's not rewarded, what does that do to him?

Well, yeah, I've spoken to people who say, you know, he's just going to,

in terms of running, as of yesterday before the result, you know,

he's going to have one shot.

You know, he doesn't need to stick around and do all this.

So, I don't know.

Like, is he here for the long haul?

Or

people, you know, reconsider these things I reckon he's got the passion and the hunger myself as an observer of him so this kind of changes the dynamics a lot in the parliament so Anthony Albanese now when the parliament sits in late July we understand faces his first liberal opposition leader who's a woman like that is a different dynamic I don't subscribe personally as a woman I find it almost offensive no not almost just offensive the idea that oh he will he be able to talk to her because she's a woman and this woman Come on, we're all politicians.

I agree with you, but this was a consideration among some in the Liberal Party.

You know, they thought that by having a woman as leader, it would make it more difficult for Anthony Albanese to really hit hard.

You know, some were saying that.

Some were saying that.

Maybe some therapy is needed.

Women are leaders too and can play in the bear pit of politics because that is the way it works.

Look, just finally, how can we not mention it?

And I don't want to make people grumpy because it matters.

Today, all of the government ministers got sworn in.

There's a lot of, you know, those of us who are political hounds, we're looking at obviously the kind of leadership tensions and the liberals.

And my eyes have been there.

But some pretty amazing pictures coming out of that, right, Lippo?

Like, really, this is a government.

Big numbers, a lot of new talent coming in.

A lot of women coming in too, you know, a cabinet with more women than we've ever seen before.

You know, this is, it was was quite an interesting split screen.

This was literally happening at the same time that the Liberals were going at each other over who was going to lead the party and the Labour Party, the government, returned with extraordinary numbers.

I think we're up to 93 seats at this point.

It's wild.

Is going through the pomp and ceremony of

being sworn in at government house with all their families arriving, the kids running around.

There were some really gorgeous moments.

I think it was Annika Wells with her kids in the background playing footy down a corridor.

You could see them through the door and eventually the Governor General called the whole family in, why don't you come and watch your mum be sworn in?

Anyway,

these kind of

these very different images, I guess.

But

obviously,

it's not all happy.

It's not all roses in the Labor Party, is it?

No, well, I had Ed Husick on Q ⁇ A and, you know, our first question was a woman who'd come to say she's a Labor supporter.

She was really disappointed that the Labor Party's factions operated this way.

She put it straight to Ed Husick.

And, you know, he confirmed, as he did with David Spears, that, yeah, he said the best way that the factions work is when you don't even notice what they're doing, not this sort of stuff.

So not all happy, but such a thumping majority that the Prime Minister can certainly

not worry and watch his back.

Is someone going to spill the leadership right now and get rid of the Prime Minister in anger?

Good luck with that, right?

He's got incredible authority over that party.

And I'm sure, though, any smart politician would be watching going, what are the Liberal Party doing?

What direction are they taking?

I'm sure they're looking, but I'm sure it's not keeping him up at night.

Yeah, that's right.

And, you know, I'm sure you sort of talked about this on the pod yesterday, but looking at

the way that Anthony Albanese has sort of divvied up portfolios, shifted things around,

he means business.

He's got some real priorities.

He's got some big things he wants to achieve.

Yes, it's kind kind of messy, uncomfortable for people that are being, particularly those that are being dumped from cabinet, absolutely so, but even others that are being moved around to portfolios that they wouldn't necessarily love.

Longer term, he wants results.

And that's, I think, pretty clear from the way he's divvied this up.

Yeah, and he needs results because, you know, people have given them a first term, they've given the big majority, they will want action.

The public can turn quickly, and the Prime Minister knows that.

And so, even with a thumping majority, you need to deliver.

I've gone on about this, but I really don't think that

the electorate is not afraid to speak its mind.

And the Prime Minister had a very dark year after the voice.

And then again, I think they reset for the stage three tax cut overhaul, but then a bad year till the end of last year, right?

So he's got the memory of what it feels like when things are just not going right.

He's got to set things right.

He's got to actually get some wins.

And he can now.

He's got, you know, the Greens, who I think are a little,

They've been put on notice from the election results, so in terms of their behaviour, don't you reckon?

Yeah, I do.

I do.

I do think

they weren't that willing to admit it for days and days and days, but I think the reality is that they're quite cowed.

They're quite

humbled, I guess you could say, by this result.

They can blame it on preferences all they like, but

that's our system.

That's the system.

And

the preferences that were delivered to them were

partly as a result of the policies that they had.

The Liberals who had

preferenced them more, I guess, in the past, and decided, no, we want you at the end of the queue or near it.

But yeah, I think the Greens will be really interesting to watch as well.

And they've got their leadership contest coming up, I think, Thursday, they're deciding.

Yeah, and as I found out last night, what isn't it?

Just only women running?

Yeah, yeah, I think so.

Yeah, yeah.

So those other parties will all have women.

Out of all the parties, you know, we're used to getting leaks and people talking to us and background information.

The Greens prefer to keep a very tightly locked box when it comes to their party room discussions, first of all, and also all of this sort of messiness around who's going to take the leadership.

But yes, Sarah Hanson-Young is probably, you'd say, the leading contender or one of them.

I think she probably has the most chops, been around a long time, knows how things work, and probably the most moderate ability to sort of take the party in the right direction.

That's my view from watching.

Pragmatic.

Larissa Waters is another contender there.

Maureen Faruqi might put a hand up.

Maureen Faruqi might put a hand up as well.

So we will see.

We will.

Oh, David, I've had a great time talking to you.

I feel sort of like I've...

cathartic, you know, talking about everything I've watched all day.

Thank you so much.

Great to be on the pod again.

Thanks, Speaker.

And that's it for politics now.

I'll be back in your feed tomorrow with David Spears, and we'll know more about what Susan Lee's said and the way she's managing and also what the government's up to.

Don't worry, we'll give you as much as we can find out.

You can also send questions to the party room at abc.net.au and Fran and I will answer them.

Catch you later.