Factional fights left, right and centre

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The Prime Minister is already under pressure as he looks to refresh his front bench with all of these new MPs entering the parliament.

And Jim Chalmers, Penny Wong, and Katie Gallagher's portfolios are safe.

They're all key economic or foreign affairs portfolios that the Prime Minister has put on a sort of higher plane.

But there's all this factional infighting underway to determine the rest of the spots.

And the leadership of the Liberals and the Nationals and possibly now even the Greens could be up for grabs.

So who are emerging as the key contenders?

Welcome to Politics Now.

Hello, I'm Patricia Carvellis.

And I'm David Spears.

And David, so many stories, so little time, let's get to them all.

Labor increasing their numbers in the most wild and abundant way.

It is an embarrassment of riches for the Labor Party right now, isn't it?

It is.

And one of the spoils of victory is the problem you kind of like to have, I guess.

If you were contemplating before the election, where would you rather be?

I'm sure Anthony Albanese would happily have the problem of trying to squeeze all these people into a 30-member front bench and maybe having to drop one or two to make room.

We We can get to all of that.

But yeah, this is one of the problems you absolutely like to have.

And he's right, there's plenty of talent there to choose from.

But yes, along the way, there will be some difficult decisions that have to be made, not just by the Prime Minister, but by the factions themselves, particularly in New South Wales.

Yeah, let's explain that system to our listeners who clearly like politics because they're listening, but maybe don't watch it like in the insane way.

way we do.

Let's talk about how that gets determined.

So the Labour Party, different to the Liberal Party, although they have factions too, let's not kid ourselves, they just work a bit differently.

The Prime Minister isn't in charge of who gets put forward.

He then decides the portfolios, right?

And right now, the numbers have changed.

So with such a landslide, the composition of the Labor Party room has changed in terms of the left and the right, the New South Wales right, the Victorian right.

And as we are recording, because there might be new news later, it's all sort of happening very fast, I've been told, like in the next 24 hours, 3,000 phone calls are being made.

The Victorian right leader now, really, who is the Deputy Prime Minister Richard Miles, is kind of spearheading a push, arguing that the New South Wales right

has too many in cabinet and someone has to lose.

And as it stands, it looks like...

maybe Ed Husick, who's the industry minister, is set to lose.

But that is a very, and watch this space, that is a contentious decision.

In terms of even the diversity, which should matter, he's the only Muslim in the cabinet.

Western Sydney was a big problem for them.

Western Sydney had a big backlash when it comes to issues around Gaza.

He's been outspoken on those issues.

He's a good communicator.

What's going on, David?

Yeah, and look, to point out, it's not just Victoria making this complaint.

Other state factions are making this point as well.

It's a simple, you know, the iron law of maths.

New South Wales is overrepresented on the front bench.

Other states do deserve more, given this election outcome than New South Wales has.

The problem, though, is if you're going to take one, I mean, arguably it should be two, but I guess it sounds like one taken out of the New South Wales right faction representation on the front bench, you're looking at who?

Tony Burke.

He is

Home Affairs Minister and Leader of the House.

So

very close without Anthony Albanese.

He has been even before Anthony Albanese was leader.

I don't think he's going to be touched.

He is seen as a very strong operator.

You've got Jason Clare

also has impressed in

campaign after campaign as someone who can absolutely carry the government's argument.

He's been education minister most recently, very highly regarded.

You've got Chris Bowen, who's the Minister for Climate and Energy,

who certainly elements of the right and right-wing media have gone after relentlessly.

And, you know, there were questions about how he'd go in his own contest there that I saw on Q ⁇ A with you the other night.

He was very keen to respond.

He did well in his result.

I don't think Anthony Albanese would want to give those critics on the right a scalp like Chris Bowen at this point.

Then you have Michelle Rowland, the Minister for Communications, and I don't think they're going to want to demote a woman.

Who else have we got?

Christy McBain, who's on the outer ministry, not in the cabinet.

Again, I don't think you'd want to drop Christy McBain.

You've got Ed Husick,

who is industry minister.

You know, he's an impressive media performer as well.

All the reasons you mentioned there about diversity and so on and being willing to push the government from time to time on issues as well is no bad thing.

Do you want to be dropping him?

No, you don't.

So this is a difficult call.

What does the Prime Minister do?

Does he look for a parachute somewhere, a posting or something he can offer?

It gets a bit difficult at this point, but I think not making room here could buy more trouble in the other state factions.

So something we'll have to give okay i agree with you something will have to give and there are no easy choices out of those no and and the prime minister

you know he he's got the people he loves and the people he doesn't love as much too like anyone um so what influence will that have yeah some people are closer i think to the prime minister than others and that's why i mentioned tony burke as someone who's very close uh with the the prime minister um you know in in the way that many on the left are like mark butler penny wong katie gallagher some of the closest to Anthony Albanese, but Tony Burke certainly is from the right, and that right-left divide in New South Wales is important, and others like Ed Husick aren't as close.

That's just a reality.

That's absolutely a reality.

But the other part of this is, you know, just a bit of history.

Ed Husick stepped aside before.

I don't know about the optics of making the same person step aside twice.

No, I agree.

And just to explain that, in 2019, he made way for Christina Keneally, also from the New South Wales right, to be on the front bench because they needed to lift their number of women in the front bench in the shadow cabinet at the time to 50-50.

So he

took the fall on that occasion, has returned to the front bench.

Look, yeah, if he was to go now, you can understand why he'd be feeling pretty bitter about it.

I mean, this is one of the tough parts of politics.

You work your guts out in government as a minister, a cabinet minister, difficult role.

You go through the campaign.

amazing victory for Labor.

And then what?

You get shafted.

You get demoted.

It's not ideal.

So this is the difficult part.

I mean, but it's not just the other state factions.

I guess there'd be people, and look, I don't know this, but I assume people like Andrew Charlton, also in the New South Wales right,

will want at some point to get a step up the ladder and deserve a step up the ladder.

And you've got this other generation, New South Wales right ministers like Chris Bowen, Tony Burke, Jason Clare, who have been there since the Rudd Gillard years.

And there is a need for generational change at some point.

So

these are difficult balances for the Prime Minister to strike.

I think it's important within Labor, and you spelled out how it works with the factions and

at the state level working out who is going to be nominated to be on the front bench.

It's not the Prime Minister making all of these calls himself.

The Prime Minister allocates the portfolios, who gets what, divvies up the roles,

but it's a process that allows for some shared ownership of who is on the front bench.

And I think that's an important mechanism for Labor.

The Prime Minister also has incredible authority right now.

And

in my view, you know, I'm allowed to be a commentator here, shouldn't be afraid to use it as well.

He has incredible authority.

He has been the leader of a thumping majority.

And that does give him, and I know Kevin Rudd sort of flexed his muscle a little bit with the factions in terms of, you know, obviously ended up getting hit by them too.

So maybe you can be

the Labour factional system can be incredibly opaque, very authoritarian sometimes,

and it needs to have the leader be able to execute some power over talent.

Yeah, what you're saying is if the faction leaders say, you know, we want this person from, I don't know, Queensland or Tasmania, the Prime Minister should have the political capital after a win like this to say, well, thanks, but no thanks.

I'd really rather stick with this person who's far more talented.

And he should have that power to do that.

Look, I think that's right.

I think there's also need for governments, if they want to be good long-term governments, they need to take the opportunities for renewal.

And those opportunities actually don't come along all that often.

And this is a point where you can have some renewal.

There will be bruises.

But again, he can use his political capital to weather those bruises right now.

Yeah, I genuinely don't know where he'll land on that New South Wales right decision in particular, or where the faction in New South Wales will land.

They've got to work this out amongst themselves, right?

Sure, they can knock on the Prime Minister's door and say, we want to keep all of our spots and tell the rest of the states to go get nicked, but that's not really responsible either.

They need to sort this out themselves.

And that's like as we record the podcast, you know, there are seriously a lot of phone calls being made

to try and do that right now.

So David, the other big issue, of course, is, well, the election is not entirely determined.

Of course, we know who the government is, but we don't know where all the seats have not been determined.

There is still voting underway in some seats, which have been deemed too close to call.

But the Liberals have been handed what is really a small lifeboat, a little glimmer of hope in the sea of what is clearly devastation and ruin.

And that's Goldstein being called for Tim Wilson this morning, which is an incredible victory for him.

He held the seat.

He lost it to Teal Zoe Daniel, former ABC correspondent, of course.

He now has it again, which, you know, hats off to him.

Like, that is quite an achievement to come back after being, you know, smashed like he was at the last election.

He's come back and he's also sort of a moderate.

He's talking big.

I'm seeing he just did a press conference and he was there and they need to stick with nuclear.

What else has he said?

This was the best day this week for the Liberal Party.

I think we can safely say, PK, to claw back Goldstein.

Zoe Daniel had claimed victory on Saturday night and the count has swung back and now it's Tim Wilson who's able to claim victory.

Yeah, it was interesting.

He was emotional.

He stood there and did this press conference today with all of his supporters wearing their blue t-shirts behind him and he was thanking them.

They were written off three years ago, he said.

So yeah, he got quite emotional, very pleased to have clawed back this vote and bucked the national trend, it must be said.

So it is an impressive turnaround we can go into and there'll be plenty written about how they've managed to do that.

And Kuyong's not out of the woods yet either for Monique Ryan.

The Liberals, you know, that's that's still tight.

But for Tim Wilson, a couple of things he said that I thought were really interesting.

He was asked a few times about, you know, his role as maybe leader or deputy leader.

I think that Jason Volinski, a former liberal moderate, who'd suggested that he should be in the leadership mix, if not leader himself.

I don't know if there's a big clamour to make Tim Wilson leader, but he sort of sidestepped that question.

He did, however, make it clear that economics.

is his passion.

He referred back to his time leading the House Committee on Economics when he was in the parliament last time.

And he remains passionate about economics.

Do you get the hint here, PK, the sort of role that he might be hoping for?

But also on nuclear as well.

He said it was one of his core beliefs.

I found this really interesting that he really mounted a case as to why Australia needs nuclear power to have the industrial capacity.

Otherwise, we're going to lose industry.

And, you know, he clearly thinks nuclear is something they should stick with, as do the Nationals.

Some and the Liberals, though, aren't so sure.

So I found that really interesting that a Liberal moderate like Tim Wilson, who's clawed back a seat from, as you say, a Teal Independent, is planting a flag in the ground on nuclear power.

I'm in the process of writing a piece for tomorrow on where things stand on nuclear and climate change after this election result.

And one of the points is it's getting harder and harder, I think, for nuclear to stack up.

You've got at least a three-year delay now.

If Labor wins the next election, as looks likely, a six-year delay.

Maybe it's a nine-year delay.

Can nuclear still solve the problems of getting to net zero by 2050?

Can nuclear still

provide an option when coal is going to be shutting down in the 2030s?

It gets harder and harder to stack it up.

But you've got the Nationals standing very firm on nuclear and some liberals like Tim Wilson as well.

I think the point you make about just the years themselves till the next election, and then if this wipeout of this election means it's really a six-year period, although you know, things can turn around fast.

I'm actually not in that camp.

I've seen elections swing very fast.

But the maths on nuclear is absolutely correct.

So I, you know, that might be Tim's position,

but it's a tricky one.

You hear from some of the liberals that I've spoken to today that maybe they should settle on a position of removing the moratorium on nuclear power, but not the full boots and all.

We're going to build seven plants that are government funded.

Taxpayers are going to be on the hook for these nuclear power plants.

I mean,

this was a very bold policy from Peter Dutton.

We said that all along.

And there are some Liberals saying, well, maybe we don't need to go that far, but we could say, let's remove the moratorium.

The Nats are obviously still more gung-ho about nuclear.

Problem is, even if they land on that sort of, yeah, let's just move the ban, remove the ban on nuclear power, it still leaves them them open to a big scare campaign from Labor, right?

I mean, Labor ran successfully on nuclear not stacking up, on being far too expensive and taking far too long.

And I think unless the Liberals move it off the table completely, Labor's still going to have a lot of fun with this.

Oh, David, I reckon

after Tim Wilson did his press conference, there was like, like, let's organise another emergency party for the Labor Party headquarters.

Like, are we going to get another election out of this?

They probably thought.

Now, traditionally, the reason I say this is at the end of an election campaign, you know, then there still will be a big review into all of the policies, the strategy, and clearly, you know, I think it was column A, B, C, D to Z for all of the, you know, failures here, which are systemic, intergenerational,

the actual campaign itself, leadership choices, Machiavellian politics internally, like so many reasons they did badly.

Not one thing, many things.

But come on, you've usually got to review all your policies and think about smashing them.

Even the things you love, even the best chew toys must be thrown away.

And it surprises me if they want to give Labor another election.

But, you know, let's see if that'll settle itself quite that neatly.

I think there's many people in the Liberal Party who know that it was a problematic policy and don't want to take it.

Yeah, and it's just been interesting, you know, having conversations since Saturday night with various people, how nuclear played.

I can tell you in Tasmania, and I hadn't really picked this up during the campaign, but it's been pointed out to me since, that a lot of voters there felt like, well, hang on, we're not going to be getting any benefit from nuclear power, right?

We're pretty, Tasmania, for those who may not know, are pretty fine when it comes to hydropower.

But they were going to be on the hook, like all taxpayers, for building these seven nuclear power plants around the country.

Hang on, what's in this for us as Tasmanians?

So it didn't go down well there, is the point.

And that's just one story, one element of this nuclear issue during the election.

Yeah.

Okay.

I talked about a lot of phone calls in the Labor Party, also a lot of phone calls of the Liberal Party.

You know, they're going to need extra charges for their mobiles because they're trying to work out the leadership and the numbers there.

Susan Lee and Angus Taylor.

moderates sort of putting their support behind Susan Lee, bit of a split in the right, it seems to me.

Angus Taylor, obviously, is the right-wing candidate, has some support there.

Does Dan Teehan make it through the middle of the middle?

Yeah, so my conversations I had today suggest that it's now down to a two-horse race.

There's not a lot of support for Dan Teehan.

So we're talking Susan Lee or Angus Taylor.

I did see Phil Currie reporting in the Financial Review that Taylor might not end up running.

That's not my understanding at the moment, but again, it wouldn't surprise if the numbers become clear.

That's normally what happens.

They don't end up running if they know they're going to lose.

But I'm not sure if we're quite at that point yet based on the chats I've had.

I'm told Susan Lee has an edge, but I don't know whether you'd call that a commanding edge at the moment.

I was told, I mean, I was told the numbers basically, there are eight in the middle that could break either way.

Yeah, I was top ten.

So that's pretty similar.

It's funny when you get the briefings, isn't it?

Obviously, these people can't speak on the record.

We're trying to find out information.

That's how the sausage is made.

Take it with a grain of sausage.

And with these things, as you all know, there's always the case where people think

a person or a group of people are on one side and so does the other candidate.

I'll give you a little insight into one of my old jobs as a sort of more junior and then intermediate political reporter.

My job would be, whenever there was a leadership spill, to call every single MP, think about how many there are, and try and find out which column they're in and then help with the graphics.

And then, of course, some don't want to tell you, some are lying to you.

So you're doing the numbers when you're a reporter sometimes just like the leaders are just like the just exactly and hopefully they're telling you the truth because oftentimes they'll tell both candidates that they're backing them yeah

hoping for a good ride should that candidate win and they might get a promotion but uh in reality they're only going to be able to back one i just think when you said that used to be your role i mean for what six or seven years it was a pretty regular occurrence on both sides i was so busy steady and then when i came over to the abc i was like guys i'm good at this yeah and then it's all about i mean sometimes I'd talk to their numbers people and be like, oh, look,

I'd think I'd have the numbers better than they did.

I was quite proud of myself.

I was quite good at that job.

So yes, that's going on.

We don't know the result, but we'll keep you informed on this podcast.

Tomorrow, Frank Kelly actually will be joined by Mel Clark because I'll be traveling and working on a story.

So they will give you the newest, latest.

So park that.

Let's talk about the Greens.

My goodness.

Is it possible, David Spears, that Anthony Albanese, who clearly must think he's an app, I mean, mean, I'm just, this is my analysis, I don't know, he hasn't told me this, but he must think he's such a legend at the moment.

Has he taken out the opposition leader and potentially also the Greens leader?

It's remarkable.

I mean, think how many times during the course of this last parliamentary term, PK, we've talked about the jam that Anthony Albanese's been in, wedged between the right and the left on issues like Gaza in particular and having to navigate this centre ground and getting belted from the

Greens for being complicit in genocide and from Peter Dutton on the the other side for not supporting Israel enough.

And it was just one issue on which he had to sort of navigate this difficult.

And now

look at this election outcome.

I mean, Dutton, gone, lost his seat, and the coalition absolutely crushed.

The Greens potentially wiped out of all of their lower house seats.

There's still counting going on in Rhine and obviously Melbourne as well for Adam Band.

But what an outcome.

Yeah, it's extraordinary.

And now the questions are starting to emerge as to, well, who could be the Greens leader?

Sarah Hanson-Young, you'd have to think, would be the favourite there.

But

they're all keen to wait and see where the count finishes, understandably, in Adam Bant's seat.

But, you know, even if he does hold on, it's a funny sort of result.

I mean, the Greens' vote, as they like to point out, has been pretty strong, but it just hasn't translated into the seats where they needed them.

They have lost ground, though.

with first preferences in Melbourne.

So

they have taken a hit.

Like Adam Bant's vote hasn't held up, right?

No, I'm talking about their national vote's done okay.

But I do think it's interesting their leader's vote has been

no, that's right, that's right.

And, you know, obviously Max Chandler-Mayer, another high-profile casualty as well, the housing spokesman.

And, you know, yes, he copped criticism for going too hard at times in resisting Labor's housing measures and standing on stage with the CFMEU after all that emerged in relation to that union.

So, look, you know, mistakes clearly were made over the course of the term.

I think it'll probably need a bit more time to work out whether the Greens' election strategy, I mean, they clearly pivoted from last year's focus on Gaza to the election campaign focus on the big toothbrush and whether that was the right approach for the Greens.

You know, dental has long been an issue for them, but

I don't know, was it enough?

Did it work?

Do they need to get back to climate issues?

Yeah, it'll need a bit more time, I think, to work out exactly where they went wrong.

But you are right, they're Vosh

at the Senate level, that, you know, they clearly are still still a force.

This isn't like the end of the Greens, but perhaps it is a story about their role.

Are they going to be a strong lower house force or not?

I do want to reflect on one thing though, particularly if Adam Bant does lose Melbourne, right?

It's such a big deal for that to happen.

I'll tell you why.

When the Greens did win that seat, and I know that place well because I went to high school in that suburb.

And when the Greens got the seat in 2010, I mean, it was such a seismic shift and the view in Labour was we lose these inner city seats pretty much forever.

They were very sad.

They had, you know, Lindsay Tanner used to have it, like it was a big shift.

And they didn't want to write them off, but they were aware that when Albanese and then Polibisec finally had to move on, and they will one day, that these would be Greens' gains and that this was going to be the future and it was becoming more fragmented.

This is quite the game changer, isn't it?

I think this is historically quite significant.

This candidate that might get up, Labor's Sarah Wishy,

I can tell you, people in the seat of Melbourne barely got like a leaflet from this woman.

Well, this happened with Labor in a few places, right?

We were talking,

I think we mentioned it on Insiders on Sunday.

David Crowe brought it up, the seat of Petrie,

where, yeah, Labor had not been expecting to win.

They literally picked out, from my understanding, a staffer six weeks before the election and said, look, you're going to have to be the candidate.

And she was fine.

And

they barely had enough money to put the corp flutes up.

They didn't spend a cent more than that, right, on campaigning in that city.

And they won it.

This has been the story in a few different pockets of the country where they didn't need anything much more than that national campaign to get them over the line.

Remarkable.

It's remarkable.

Oh, I just think it's just so wild.

Look, before we say goodbye, the Prime Minister's going to be going to Indonesia as his first trip next week.

That's significant.

I think it's actually, it was his first trip when he first became Prime Minister too, so it's very symbolic too that he always prioritises.

After the Quad meeting, he always prioritises Indonesia, and I think that's very good regionally.

But after the whole sort of Russia bases business during the campaign, which ended up being disastrous, I think, for the opposition leader Peter Dutton.

But it's a pretty important meeting, isn't it?

Yes.

I mean, there's still that, you know, outstanding question as to the nature of the defence relationship between Indonesia and Russia.

Sure, they've denied any plan for Russian air bases on Indonesian soil.

But, you know, as we probably discussed a few weeks ago when all of this was dominating the campaign,

what about

permanent rotations or the sort of thing that the US does in the top end here in Australia?

Clearly, they have a closer defence relationship than they had previously.

They've been doing a lot more military exercises together.

So yes, that would all be top of the list of things I'm sure that the Prime Minister would want to discuss with President Subianto.

So look, the exact day that he goes,

not announced yet, but we expect it to happen next week.

So he'll have a busy few days.

The caucus meeting on Friday to finalise the ministry.

Presumably he then has to announce that.

And then a swearing in, which I assume would be Monday.

And then no doubt soon after that on the plane to Jakarta to meet the Indonesian President sometime next next week.

Down to business.

He'll attend the G7 meeting in Canada within weeks as well, where he's expected to meet Donald Trump for the first time as well.

So yeah, there's a bit to get on with for the re-elected Prime Minister.

Well, this is exactly the sort of stuff he last week would have been dreaming was possible.

And now it is.

So there you go, how one week in politics can change everything.

And that's it for politics now.

But David, you've got, of course, insiders on background on the weekend.

Who have you got?

Yeah, talking to Charlotte Mortlock, who people might know is the founder of a grassroots Liberal Party membership group, the Hillmers Network, which is all about trying to

get more women pre-selected in the Liberal Party.

And of course, it's been another disappointing election outcome as far as the Liberal Party's ability to reach women, pre-select women, get women into Parliament.

They're going to have far fewer women than they even had in the last term of parliament.

So we'll talk to Charlotte about that.

What's gone wrong?

Do they need to do quotas?

Something that they've resisted for years and years.

Simon Birminger said they should.

Exactly.

How do they reconnect with women as an organisation?

That's very exciting.

I will be listening to that.

Tomorrow, Frank Kelly will be back in your feeds for the party room.

Mel Clark is her co-host.

Not me, but I'll be listening.

In fact, I might send a short voice note to the party room at abc.net.au because I do have many questions.

Okay.

I'll let your questions be asked.

I won't take that.

I want to send a question though, David.

Wouldn't let me.

So many questions.

Just if, look, if Mel Clark is hosting, and I'm sure she'll be listening to this as well, just anything in the energy climate space, and you'll be right.

You'll get more insight and information than you bargain for, Pika.

Yeah, ask Mel Clark a question that I would never be able to answer.

David, I will speak to you soon.

See ya.

See ya.

Bye-bye.