Trump Unveils Steep New Tariffs, TikTok Develops App for U.S. & CoreWeave’s $9B Acquisition

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Welcome to Prof G Markets.

I'm Ed Elson.

It is July 8th.

Let's check in on yesterday's market vitals.

The major indices all fell after Trump renewed trade tensions.

We'll talk more about that in just a second.

The Dow and the Nasdaq dropped roughly 1%.

The S ⁇ P fell 0.8%.

The dollar gained and the yield on tenured treasuries rose.

And meanwhile, Tesla shares fell nearly 7%, shedding $68 billion in value after Elon Musk said he was forming a new political party.

Okay, what else is happening?

Trump announced a new slate of tariffs yesterday.

Those tariffs include a 25% tariff on South Korea, a 25% tariff on Japan, a 30% tariff on South Africa, and several more tariffs on countries including Malaysia, Kazakhstan, Indonesia, and Myanmar.

This comes as the 90-day tariff pause approaches its end.

As a reminder, the Liberation Day tariffs, which were enacted on April 2nd, were later paused by Trump, and that pause is set to expire tomorrow, on Wednesday.

The administration has discussed extending that deadline, but as of this morning, unless new trade deals are reached, the original Liberation Day tariffs will go back into effect.

Okay, so we have our first confirmed tariffs of the week, 25 to 40 percent tariffs on what looks like 14 countries right now.

And these will likely be the first of many.

Trump said over the weekend, quote, I am pleased to announce that the United States tariff letters and or deals with various countries from around around the world will be delivered starting Monday, July 7th.

So as of Monday, we are 14 for 14 on tariffs.

There was some possibility based on what he'd said that we'd get some deals too.

But as of right now, no, we're not getting any deals.

All we're getting is tariffs or tariff letters, as he put it.

And in this case, the tariffs will be applied to two of our largest trading partners.

We have Japan, which accounted for more than $200 billion worth of trade last year, our fifth largest trading partner, and also South Korea, which accounted for $180 billion worth of trade, our sixth largest trading partner.

So these are two very important players in our economy.

In addition, they are also two of our closest allies.

I mean, you just look at our...

military relationship, for example.

America has 50,000 troops stationed in Japan, and we also have nearly 30,000 troops in South Korea.

So aside from Germany, there is no other nation that hosts more American soldiers than Japan and South Korea.

Meanwhile, these two countries are very important partners in space exploration, in semiconductors, in AI, in clean energy.

The list goes on.

And now we have decided, actually, no,

they're not a partner.

They are, in fact, a threat, as he said, a threat to our economy and a threat to our national security.

Now, I'm not going to act surprised here.

I don't think anyone's really that surprised.

I think we've seen this all before.

This is essentially Liberation Day part two.

But, you know, we did see some market impact.

As I mentioned, the SP fell around 1%, so did the NASDAQ.

And there are questions now as to what this will do to America and to our economy.

So for more on that, our producer Claire spoke with Barry Appleton.

He is the co-director of the Center for International Law at New York Law School.

I think the markets have misunderstood what this week's about and what's going on and i think it's better to get a sense of the context because the markets keep moving they keep going ahead and keep pulling back retrenching and it's because they don't understand the game what you need to understand is that you know president trump is a real estate guy and he also runs golf clubs and mar-a-lago right so he understands about about people wanting to pay for access.

So what he's decided to do, disrupt the games.

We had all these trade agreements, all these things that said everyone would get market access for free.

And in exchange, the U.S.

would get access for services or access for certain market, you know, and other things, but we didn't ask for money.

Now he says, no, you want to come to our game?

You want to come to my club?

You want to come to Mar-a-Lago and eat the chocolate cake?

You got to pay.

The payment's going to be the tariff.

And so the question was, everybody had to put in an application.

Those applications were due today.

And so what what he did is he had the first set of letters to people that he wasn't going to give preferential pricing.

So he would look at these applications, decide, am I going to give you the friends and family rate?

Am I going to charge you like the supermarket rate?

Am I going to give you any discount or no discount at all, right?

If you give him an invite to go meet at the palace with the king, then he makes it really cheap.

If you're going to say bad things like South Africa, he just made it 30%.

right?

So that's what's going on.

So the applications they're in.

He then has a series of letters.

So he's he's decided that he's got at least seven countries out of 70 that say they wanted to deal with things at least seven he wanted to teach them a lesson they're the ones that got the truth social tweet today okay so out he goes to them he says i'm going to charge you what the market will pay and you're going to pay for market access In fact, you're going to pay surge pricing.

It's like going to a

Taylor Swift concert.

You are paying extra to be able to get those seats.

So that's going on.

And that is supposed to come out on the 9th.

So on Wednesday, he's supposed to give all these countries their letters.

So you're going to see what I call a policy stript tease.

He's going to take one veil off at a time, letter after letter coming out onto a social.

And each country is going to find out what's going to happen.

But markets don't like uncertainty.

And they actually don't like policy coming out in drips and drabs.

So the market doesn't know how to react.

But if you understand that's part of a show, it's part of an act, and it's just the first part of it, then you might react in a different way than if you think it's the end of the game.

So the markets didn't like this on the weekend.

They started to hear what was going on.

Then they saw more today and they started selling off again.

But there's no difference in the market today than there was yesterday or on Friday.

Okay, what you want to know about is what's going to happen at the end of the week and the end of this month.

So the first thing is, do you believe that Trump wants tariff revenue?

It's pretty clear now after the one big beautiful bill and listening to the Treasury Secretary, he wants some tariffs.

So no one's getting in for free.

Anybody that thinks they're getting into Mar-a-Lago for free is going to be very mistaken.

Everyone pays something now.

That was Professor Barry Appleton, co-director of the Center for International Law at New York Law School.

Very chaotic once again.

I mean, this whole tariff policy is being played out online on Truth Social.

As he said, these tariff letters aren't really being sent to these countries.

These tariff letters are being posted online on Truth Social.

They're essentially screenshots.

And we are watching the show play out in real time.

And so I think he's certainly correct on that point.

One thing is for certain, though, and that is that this story is not over yet.

July 9th has yet to come.

We've still got lots of tariffs in the pipeline, potentially lots of deals in the pipeline.

I don't know.

We'll see.

We haven't seen that many so far, but we'll be keeping very close tabs on this throughout the week.

So stay tuned.

TikTok is reportedly building a new app for American users ahead of a potential sale to American investors.

The company plans to launch the new app on September 5th, although the existing app will work until March 2026.

And this new app is part of a broader effort to make the platform more appealing and ultimately more transferable to a US buyer.

As a reminder, TikTok was going to be banned in America unless it was sold by its Chinese owner, ByteDance.

That was until Trump decided to delay that ban and he allowed TikTok to continue operating.

However, he is now reportedly working on a deal to get TikTok into the hands of a US investor.

And the fact that TikTok is now building this US version of the app, well, that is probably more evidence that a TikTok sale may indeed be on the horizon.

Meanwhile, the timing of all of this is quite convenient for Trump.

As we just discussed, he's working through these trade negotiations with many countries, including China.

And according to Alice Hahn, China economist and director at Greenmantle, this deal could be another bargaining chip in those negotiations.

The biggest question mark,

which is Beijing's reaction function.

On that topic alone, I sense that there could be more

concessions from China, meaning that they could decide to allow this subsidiary of a u.s tick tock to be spun out of uh by a dance itself and that that unit of the business the u.s operations that is could be sold to uh to u.s parties i sense that the chinese at a macro fundamental level uh want to try to reduce tensions on trade with trump because they are worried by the erratic nature again we just saw in the last um day or so that he's talking about another 10 bricks tax.

And certainly he's applied pressure on transiplins for a couple of these Southeast Asia countries.

So I could see the Chinese potentially offering this as a concession very quietly.

That was Alice Han, China economist and director at Greenmantle.

Bargaining chip or not, there is a growing sense that TikTok will at some point be sold to an American investor.

And the question then becomes, one, when?

Two, how,

and three, to whom?

Those are all the questions that we're all asking and we can't really answer right now.

There have been some rumors.

Oracle has been floated as a buyer, for example.

So has Amazon.

And there have also been some more outlandish rumors.

Kevin O'Leary, for example, Mr.

Wonderful, he's been floated as a buyer.

And Alexis O'Hanian, the co-founder of Reddit.

Now, I don't...

doubt that those guys have made bids.

Kevin O'Leary, for example, has spoken about his bid on TV.

But I think the question you have to ask is, do do you have the money?

And the answer for those guys and for many people is probably no.

This deal is going to be a lot.

This deal is expected to be north of $50 billion.

And there are very few entities out there, let alone people, that can actually afford that.

So in terms of buyers, no, I don't think Kevin O'Leary is going to own TikTok.

But there is definitely a world in which a company like Oracle could own it.

And that would be a huge shake-up to the social media economy, which is, of course, as of today, totally dominated by meta.

So let's check in with Scott on this.

As you probably know, he has been calling for TikTok to be banned for several years now.

I'm sure he has some opinions on this.

Plus, it's been a while since we've heard from him.

He's been off on vacation with his family, but I am happy to report that he is, as of today, back to work.

So let's give Scott a call.

Hey, Scott.

How are you, Ed?

I'm doing well.

How are you?

It's been a while.

Yeah, it has been a while.

I had a nice weekend, and I'm wrapping up our trip.

Oh, you're still in Ibiza.

Yeah, still here.

Okay.

Still here.

Head to Los Angeles on Wednesday.

But yeah, still here.

Good stuff.

What's the plan for LA?

Well, I don't know if you've heard this, Ed, but I'm working on an original scripted program from a little company called Netflix.

Oh, there we go.

Little company called Netflix that I bought at $12 a share and then sold at $10 and now it's trading at $1,400.

So I want to find a time machine so I can go in that time machine, go back, kill me, and then come back and kill myself.

When is that coming out?

It's coming out in fall of next year, fall 2026.

Oh, that's pretty soon.

That is quite exciting.

Okay, well, we'd like to get your take on this TikTok news.

TikTok is building this new app.

Probably the best evidence we've gotten so far that they will.

sell to an American investor.

What's your take, Scott?

My gut is that it's the mother of all jazz hands, that it's a giant's head fig, that it's essentially bullshit, that they're going to try and rebrand it, say it's a different app, come up with a bunch of reasons for why it's unique, maybe allow some additional investors, create a new entity.

But as long as the algorithm is controlled out of Beijing,

or there's backdoors into the algorithm, and they can continue to raise a generation of military, nonprofit, and business leaders.

and teach them to basically hate each other and hate America, which is, I think too valuable a propaganda machine for them to give up i don't think they're going to want to unplug a neural jack from the wet matter of all of america's youth so and i think the president has proven himself to that he is not a serious person with regards to threats to ban things so i think it's going to be performative and branding uh but at the end of the day i think the ccp will continue to control the algorithm so for me it all comes down to ownership so we'll see So what would your prediction be?

How do you think this plays out?

Are you saying that we'll see a sale of the app, but the CCP will still have control of the algorithm, but the sale will happen, or we won't see a sale at all?

How do you see this playing out?

I don't know if they'll come up with some jazz hands around a new app, new branding, some additional security measures, but I just get the sense that the CCP would rather

have call President Trump's bluff and say, okay, ban the app

and perhaps lose 20% of revenue, which they don't really care, than give up what has become the most, the propaganda dream of MI6 and Mossad and the CIA.

I just don't think, I don't think the CCP is going to give it up.

So that's my prediction, that at the end of the day, this thing is either banned because they refuse to give up control of the algorithm.

or effectively it's performative.

I think that basically that

Trump's hand, he's overplayed his hand.

It's getting weaker and weaker.

I mean, just thinking about the tariffs, Ed, I believe, and there's evidence that there's been more dollar volume of trade deals done outside of the U.S.

between third parties that have been inspired by Trump's threats.

So the EU and Mercosur, the EU and India, Southeastern nations, African nations are talking.

and doing regional trade deals.

I believe the dollar volume of deals inspired by Trump's hostile rhetoric and threats of a trade war is much greater than the actual deals that have been consummated so far between the U.S.

and nations.

I mean, I think his hand is just getting weaker and weaker.

Yeah, I think that makes sense.

Before you go, Scott, can we just get a vibe check on

Ibiza and Europe and the Mediterranean?

How are things over there?

Well, I mean, income inequality rage is on.

I'm with, I'm on an island.

There's sort of this.

It's fine to say it's nice.

Well, yeah, okay.

It's really nice, but

the douche circuit lives on, whether you're in St.

Bart's or Abitha or Mickinos.

You know, this isn't the real world.

This is the 1% and the children of the 1%.

So I don't know if this is a decent indication.

What I will say is that inflation, and nobody talks about this, inflation at the high end has been greater than any other segment.

Rich people inflation.

Yeah, because these people are pretty much price insensitive, and it's not easy easy to spin up one of these global hotspots.

So,

but this is definitely, it reminds me of the, it's the last 20 years, whenever I go skiing, I ask myself, how does a middle-class family afford this?

And the answer is they can't.

But there appears to be no slowdown amongst kind of these very,

I don't know, high-prestige elite places.

What Abitha has done, Ed, and I'm glad you asked, and I'm sure you're regretting asking, what Abitha has done that's really interesting is a lesson in branding, and that is they have done a great job of creating a kind of a global hotspot or a party island that has the best DJs in residence.

So they've kind of become known for having the best DJs in the world.

And it's a really interesting brand positioning, which results in great margin.

But it's just a super interesting strategy that they've figured out that, all right, we're going to be the party place that has the best DJs in residence.

And how does it compare to Mikonos?

Well, I'm older, so I enjoy Mikonos more because I think it has more character in the individual islands with no cars and more interesting.

But if you're your age and you're being overpaid by a boss who has affection for you for no real reason or no real tangible reason, you're going to want to come.

Like you and the team would come to a Biza.

Like Greece is

a little bit more interesting, a little bit more classy, which is, you know, you're none of those things.

So I would say a Biza.

Okay, noted.

Thank you, Scott.

Enjoy your night.

Thanks, Ed.

After the break, a $9 billion acquisition from Corweet.

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We're back with Profit Markets.

AI company Core Weave is acquiring Bitcoin mining company Core Scientific for $9 billion.

The all-stock deal will value Core Scientific at roughly $20 per share.

That represents a 66% premium to its closing price before the transaction.

The deal is expected to close in the fourth quarter of this year.

Just a reminder on Core Weave.

What is Coreweave?

This is the company that went public in March of this year.

It was the biggest American IPO of the year.

They raised $1.5 billion.

And as we've discussed, since going public, the stock is up nearly 300%.

So it is absolutely ripping.

Now, what does Core Weave actually do?

Well, put simply, they sell compute.

Core weave operates 33 data centers around the world and they have roughly 250,000 NVIDIA chips and they sell access to those chips to tech companies, companies like OpenAI and Meta and Google and Microsoft.

People call it an AI company.

It probably makes more sense to call it a data center company.

They're not building AI, but they are selling the compute that is needed to build AI.

So why would Coreweave, this data center company or this AI company, why would they want to buy CoreScientific, which is a Bitcoin mining company?

Well, the answer actually makes more sense than you might think, because it turns out that Bitcoin mining and AI actually have quite a lot in common.

And that is they they both require tons of compute.

As we've discussed, the Bitcoin network consumes more than 200 terawatt hours per year, and that is more than the annual electricity consumption of Argentina.

So, if you want to mine Bitcoin, well, basically, you need chips, and ideally, lots of them.

And that is exactly what Core Scientific offers.

They have nine data centers across the US, and those data centers were originally supposed to be used for Bitcoin.

But suddenly, the AI revolution happened.

And then the company realized, well, those same data centers are actually just as useful for AI as they are for Bitcoin.

So the company pivoted and they started renting out their compute to AI companies.

And now Core Scientific will become part of this AI company that is Coreweave.

Interesting side note, by the way, Coreweave has a very similar history to CoreScientific.

It also started out as a Bitcoin company.

But then as AI took over, they suddenly realized, oh, these data centers, they can actually be used for AI.

So they pivoted to AI as well.

So there's a lot of overlap between these two companies.

They also both have the word core in their names.

But to be clear, that is just a coincidence.

These are two totally separate, totally distinct companies.

Okay, back to the deal.

$9 billion all-stock deal.

As I mentioned, Coreweave is paying a 66% premium for this company.

And that is pretty enormous.

The average premium for a public company acquisition is between 20 and 40%.

This acquisition is pushing 70%.

So in other words, Coreweave appears to be overpaying.

And that would explain what happened to the stock.

Coreweave stock fell nearly 5% on the news, somewhat significant, but also somewhat expected.

What was less expected, though, was what happened to core scientific stock.

You would think that if a company was being bought at this significant premium, then the stock would go up.

That is at at least usually what happens in MA.

But no, core scientific stock went down by about 15%.

In other words, investors seem to think this premium wasn't enough.

They wanted more.

And the net net of this transaction is that both companies lost value.

And that is...

quite strange.

So to better understand what is really happening here, we spoke with Gil Luria.

He is the head of technology research at DA Davidson.

Since the deal is only going to close in the fourth quarter and it's a stock-only deal, what this reaction tells us is that the holders of Core Scientific believe that Core Weave's stock will be lower by the time the acquisition closes, which is why the value of shares they get at that time will be lower than the implied stock price.

at the closing today.

So that's the reaction to Core Scientific.

On the Core Weave side,

this is a little bit more financial engineering from their side.

This is a company that really is mostly built around financial engineering.

And this is just a little bit more of that.

Core Weave is not using cash, right?

They're just issuing new shares, diluting their own shareholders.

Is that why Core Weave shareholders are potentially upset about this acquisition?

Yes, that's exactly right.

So they're using almost 10% of their shares to buy a business that is also losing money and also has negative cash flow.

So that's a deludive acquisition, which is why Core Weave's shares down today as well.

Okay.

And then basically, core scientific shareholders are thinking Core Weave is currently overvalued.

That's right.

Since the transaction will close in the fourth quarter, a lot's going to happen between now and then.

Core weave,

the share lockup from the IPO will happen.

And so a lot more shares will become available, which will likely reduce the share price for Core Weave.

So by the time core scientific shareholders get Core Weave share, the share price will be lower.

And that's what's reflected today.

Before I let you go, I'd love to just get your sense of Core Weave as a business.

Our co-host, Ed, he sort of thinks that Core Weave exists because NVIDIA wants it to exist and that they have this over-reliance on NVIDIA's GPUs.

What do you think of that?

Yeah, NVIDIA created Core Weave and other Neo clouds such as Core Weave to put pressure on its largest customers, Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon.

And it's continued to prop Core Weave up all the way through the IPO in order to do that.

Core Weave is really

a deal between NVIDIA, Microsoft, Microsoft, and debt holders to build data centers.

So this is a much more of an unusual situation where the whole entity was created because NVIDIA didn't want to just have four or five customers.

It wanted to diversify its customer base.

So instead of selling the chips directly to Microsoft, it sold them to Core Weave.

Coreweave doesn't have any customers.

Microsoft does.

So then Microsoft turns around and rents that capacity from Core Weave.

If all that sounded convoluted, it's because it is.

This is financial engineering to serve the purposes of NVIDIA.

Really, Core Weave in its essence is if you would take a 12.5% margin loan to buy treasuries yielding 5%,

it's not a good idea.

And eventually the market will figure that out.

Well, I have to say, I.

loved that response from Gil Luria.

He's the head of technology research at DA Davidson.

Totally agree with his analysis on Core Weave as a company.

But he also mentioned something there that is really important about this acquisition and how the stock reacted to this acquisition.

Because this is an example, and it's a great example of the market whispering a secret to us that many perhaps didn't want us to hear.

And in this case, the secret is being revealed by the shareholders of Core Scientific, who, by selling their stock after they had received this pile of Core Weave shares that, as I said, were worth 66% more than the current value of their company, by selling, they essentially told us that they do not believe in the current valuation of Core Weave.

They believe that by the time this deal closes in Q4 of this year, Core Weave will be worth significantly less than it is now.

And they will be left with a pile of shares that they basically just don't want.

So put another way, this is about as good of a sign as you could get that Core Weave is indeed overvalued.

And this is something that I have pointed out before, and that is partly why I like this story, because yes, Core Weave was the hottest IPO of the year.

Yes, it is part of the AI story.

Yes, it's quadrupled since the IPO.

It looks great.

But when you look beneath the hood, what you discover is a business that is fundamentally quite weak.

It's way over dependent on NVIDIA.

It's got way too much customer concentration in Microsoft.

And it's also got $8 billion worth of debt.

As Gil said, it's essentially a practice in financial engineering.

And as I've said before, the only reason this company exists is because NVIDIA wants it to exist.

But if that changes for whatever reason, well, then you don't really have much of a company left.

So that's the the concern that I have flagged.

But what we are learning with this transaction, and specifically with what happened to Core Scientific stock, is that other investors, the shareholders in that company, they are concerned about this too.

And that is why you saw this enormous drop in this company you've probably never heard of, because the investors in Core Scientific believe that despite that 66% premium, which seems great, despite that, the current valuation of Core Weave is too high.

The company is over-sensationalized, it is over-hyped, and they believe that come Q4, when the deal closes, the hype will have run out.

It sounds like Gil Luria agrees with that thesis, and in this case, I agree with that thesis too.

Okay, that's it for today.

Thanks for listening to Profit Markets from the Vox Media Podcast Network.

I'm Ed Elson.

I'll see you tomorrow.

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