How Maria Won Her First WSOP Bracelet

Pushkin.

This is an iHeart podcast.

In today's super competitive business environment, the edge goes to those who push harder, move faster, and level up every tool in their arsenal.

T-Mobile knows all about that.

They're now the best network, according to the experts at OoCla Speed Test, and they're using that network to launch Supermobile, the first and only business plan to combine intelligent performance, built-in security, and seamless satellite coverage.

That's your business, Supercharged.

Learn more at supermobile.com.

Seamless coverage with compatible devices in most outdoor areas in the U.S.

where you can see the sky.

Best network based on analysis by OOCLA of SpeedTest Intelligence Data 1H 2025.

You've probably heard me say this.

Connection is one of the biggest keys to happiness.

And one of my favorite ways to build that?

Scruffy hospitality.

Inviting people over even when things aren't perfect.

Because just being together, laughing, chatting, cooking, makes you feel good.

That's why I love Bosch.

Bosch fridges with VitaFresh technology keep ingredients fresher longer, so you're always ready to whip up a meal and share a special moment.

Fresh foods show you care, and it shows the people you love that they matter.

Learn more, visit Bosch HomeUS.com.

This message is a paid partnership with AppleCard.

I was just at a theme park in Florida with my almost four-year-old.

Between enjoying the sunshine and the rides, the last thing I wanted to worry about was my wallet.

That's why AppleCard with Apple Pay saved my vacation.

One tap, a check-in, and I was off to see the attractions.

Every purchase, from hot dogs, and oh, we had hot dogs, to t-shirts, earned me daily cash.

Unlike waiting in line for a ride, there's no waiting until the end of the month for rewards.

And my daily cash is automatically deposited into the savings account I opened through Apple Card, where it earns interest.

With Apple Pay's secure technology built right into my iPhone and Apple Watch, I pay to shops, restaurants, and attractions without ever digging from my wallet.

The best part?

No fees, no hassles.

I spent less time managing my money and more time doing nothing short short of epic.

Apply for AppleCard in the wallet app on your iPhone.

Subject to credit approval.

Savings available to AppleCard owners, subject to eligibility.

Variable APRs for AppleCard range from 18.24% to 28.49% based on credit worthiness.

Rates as of July 1st, 2025.

Savings on AppleCard by Goldman Sanct Bank, USA, Salt Lake City Branch.

Member FDIC.

Terms and more at applecard.com.

Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about about making better decisions.

I'm Maria Konikova.

And I'm Nate Silver.

Today on the program, since the last time you heard this show,

one of the two hosts of Risky Business has won a World Series of Poker bracelet.

We will soon disclose who that is and conduct an interview with him or her.

I love the suspense building, Nate, and looking forward to the interview with him or her.

After that, we're going to ship gears and talk about the Nobel Prizes, specifically the Nobel Peace Prize that was awarded last week, and P-Doom and the probability of kind of nuclear destruction and what has happened with that over the years.

And then some politics.

So,

exciting poker developments this weekend.

I was down in

New Orleans for a friend's birthday, played a little bit at the Harris there, which has a very aggressive policy of making making sure there are lots of drink servers.

So the games are good and loose.

Won three game and I won $201.

And even more exciting.

Congratulations, I found that it was a $25 chip I'd forgotten to cash in.

So really, really $2.26.

So I think it would be hard to top that for poker accomplishments since the last show, right, Maria?

I think it would be.

I think that's pretty impressive.

And congratulations.

It always feels so good to find that extra chip.

It's like

almost better than, yeah, it's almost better than actually having the cash, I feel like.

Yeah, for sure, for sure, because you forget you have it.

I love the poker stories, by the way, as a tangent of D-Gens, because they're always D-gens.

Like poker players who are not D-Gens, these stories don't happen to them.

When they're like, oh, you know, I was emptying out an old sweatshirt and I found, you know, two 5K chips or like a 10K or this or that.

And they totally forget.

They're like, oh, and this old backpack, like at a 25K chip.

Like, it's awesome.

So those stories always uh tend to crack me up but they do happen and it happened more frequently than you would think meanwhile I woke up on Monday

a little bit later than usual due to the New Orleans weekend

and I saw a note from you posted at what time was this like three or four in the morning or something it was three in the morning Pacific time yeah okay Maria tell me what that note said

I don't remember exactly what the wording was, but something along the lines of like, holy shit, I won my first World Series of poker bracelet.

Oh my gosh, Maria, I'm so proud of you.

And the audience of the show is proud of you too.

So tell me, tell me everything.

Tell me, did the tournament actually end at 3 a.m.?

Yeah, the tournament ended at like at like 2.50,

something along those lines.

So it was an incredibly long tournament.

I mean, it was 10 and a half hours, but

those hours

tend to be much more difficult for players like me who are getting on in years, Nate, because we're playing so late into the night.

So, you know, it's unlike in a live World Series of Poker event where like you're playing over multiple days, like here it's just concentrated.

And, you know, I happen to be in Las Vegas right now, which is where I was playing this event.

But for the poor people on the East Coast, it's even worse, right?

They ended at 6 a.m.

So tell me more about this.

Is a

bracelet event, obviously.

Yep.

It's an what is it, 888 or something?

Yeah, it's the crazy eights 888 event.

And

it was

part of so as of last year the World Series of Poker has done a fall series where they have I don't actually know how many events 20 something like that where they

where they award online bracelets which is a you know a different thing because some people think that online bracelets shouldn't count

but they do count for now so I'm going to count mine because absolutely

what did you do when you won

um oh my i was very very tired um and everyone i know was asleep so i oh except for my parents so my parents are currently on vacation in france um so i texted my parents um and told them that i won a bracelet because they were the only people i knew who were awake plus

your husband was asleep

anyway what your husband was asleep he was asleep yes but i did wake him up um to tell you

yeah i think you have an obligation to do it yes um and uh I obviously I also texted Eric Seidel since, you know, he, this is as, I'm not going to say as much his victory, but like I wouldn't be here if it weren't for his mentorship and coaching and training throughout the years and support.

So he was asleep, but he, by the time he texted me back, I was asleep because, you know, I went to bed quite late.

Did you adopt any particular strategy for this event?

I mean, do you, I mean, the vibes are a little bit different than on

these online.

I haven't played that many.

I've never even cashed one online actually with the World Series.

So, this is the first, yeah, this is the first time I've played in an online bracelet series.

Actually, that's not true.

I played during COVID.

So, do you remember during COVID when the World Series Live was canceled?

They ended up doing a bracelet series that summer during the World Series instead.

And we rented an Airbnb in New Jersey and spent a few weeks in New Jersey.

And I played online there and did not do well.

But so, this is the second online series that I've played.

And

I got to Vegas a few days ago, this weekend, and have been able to play a few events.

And it's definitely

you know, it's definitely different because

I'm someone who specializes in live tournaments.

So it's hard for me.

It's much harder for me to play online because I don't see faces.

You know, I don't see a lot of the kind of physical things

that I would normally use.

That said, I actually started, you know, I learned poker by playing online.

I would go to New Jersey every single day and play on poker stars.

I know that.

Yeah.

So

because online poker is not legal in New York, but is legal in New Jersey,

I would cross the river, I would take the PATH train, and I would sit in a cafe and I'd play online on poker stars.

And the reason I did that, even though I always knew that I had, that I wanted to play live, was everyone I was working with, namely, you know, Eric Seidel and Phil Galfond, at the time, they were saying, you know, you need to get hands in, right?

You need to get practice in.

You need to, you need to get repetition and figure out what these spots feel like.

And the only way to do that is by playing online.

So it's not like, you know, I started live and I've never played online.

That was where my initial training came from.

But I still actually think that for me, online poker is much tougher.

And

I mean, my strategy was just to try to play

as well as I possibly could.

And I ended up in for the max number of rebuys, which obviously is not ideal.

You could rebuy three times.

And

I ran Pocket Jacks into Pocket Kings twice

for two of the bustouts.

And my final hand of the tournament, actually, in Poetic Justice, was Pocket Jacks.

But yeah, so,

you know, obviously I don't love max rebuying, but I was ready to do that.

And I think sometimes you need to, you know, when you,

you know, the rebuys are there for a reason.

You know, you're playing a rebuy event.

And so I just wanted to play my best game and

really make sure that I was playing well and not punting.

So a few days ago, the first online bracelet event I played was the 3200 6 Max, and I came in eighth.

And that was so close.

And I was actually,

you know, talking to someone afterwards, and I was like, oh man, that's probably the closest I'll ever come to winning a bracelet, seven players away.

And then a few days later, I came even closer.

So that felt very nice.

So this fourth bullet, was it relatively smooth?

Did you rack up a big stack early?

No, so some of it was smooth, but I actually, so you can review all of your hands, which I did prior to this conversation.

You know, I had gotten, I got short a few times, and then there were actually a few pivotal hands that really helped propel me to the win.

I

was

middle of the pack for most of the tournament.

And I was actually quite low.

In the last bullet, I thought that I was going to bust because I got very unlucky in one hand and was down to sub-10 big blinds for a chunk of time.

And then was able to work it back up, grind it back up,

and build up a stack.

And then there were a few hands that I thought were quite interesting.

I think one of the most important hands in the tournament was

when we were down to two tables.

So at this point, we were already all in the money.

And

the pay jumps, by the way, so because I was in for four bullets, I needed to get better than 10 to

break even because

it's a very flat payout structure.

And

we were, I think there were 15 of us left at the time.

And I was kind of middle of the road.

You know, I was a mid, I had 20 something big blinds.

So I ended up, we were eight-handed at the table.

And I was in the hijack.

So for people who don't know poker, you know, that's kind of middle, middle-ish position.

And I was dealt King 10 of Spades, which is, which is a pretty good hand.

You're pretty excited.

Pretty excited.

I'm pretty excited.

So I raised, Min raised, you know, two big blinds.

And then the player who was on the button, who was the biggest stack at at the table so almost twice um what i had and and you don't who don't know who this is no um his uh his name was sefuku so his uh screen name is ritualistic suicide by disembowelment um so so that's fun and you're in the hijack a lot of violent terminology here

Absolutely.

I'm in the hijack.

And he is on the button and he decides to three-bet me.

And he makes it six big blinds.

and

you know this is already an interesting spot right because I'm short enough that I could fold but I have a really playable hand right a hand that does really well post-flop and you know it's not it's not a huge three bet anyway it could go either it can actually go anyway right I can if I think he's full of shit I can just shove because I have a nice reshove stack I can fold there's no shame in in folding king 10 or I can call and I haven't run this hand through any sim yet so I'm not sure if what I did was correct or not but I called and the flop so at this point right what is our pot at this point our pot is 15 big lines

yeah something like that and the flop comes seven eight nine one spade two clubs and we have king 10 of spades yep so we have an open-ended straight draw right um seven eight nine ten um and

we have a a backdoor flush draw, right?

So we're drawing, we're drawing to a lot of nutty or second nutty type hands, but we don't have anything.

We still have King Hai.

So I check, which I would do with basically all of my hands in this situation when I'm out of position.

And he checks back.

which is interesting, right?

Because it tells me something about the strength of his hand, right?

Also, if he has really strong hands, he doesn't want to check back that board because it's an incredibly draw-heavy board, right?

If you have pocket aces,

you do not want me to see another card, right?

You do not want me to hit my straight.

You do not want me to hit my

flush.

Like there, you really do not want me to get a free card, right?

So he checks back and the turn is the queen of clubs.

So now

Jack 10 has made a straight.

And let's remember, I have a 10 in my hand, right?

So I block the nuts

or the second, obviously

the flush has come in.

yeah meaning it's hard now for harder for him to have combinatorically

the best possible hand because you have

and that's actually not true because he could still have clubs right he could have one club in his hand i don't think he checks back clubs on um the on the flop but he could have a hand with one club that could be that could be uh drawing very live but i don't think he has two clubs in his hand um and i am blocking the straight the not straight but the so the queen is actually like not not a great great card for him when he checks when he checks back the uh the flop and so i decide to lead so here i do decide to lead um which i would actually do with a lot of my flushes because i have a lot of flushes here right and um and i do have straights here and i don't want and with the 10 like i could very well have jack 10.

now you know i i don't want any more clubs to roll off so i bet um and um i bet pretty small um and the reason i bet small by the way was if you think of the stack sizes i will have a pot size bet left if he calls on the river.

And so that's a really good

ratio because I'll be able to shove for full pot.

And I can, by the way, still improve.

He has some hands that just are going to give up pretty easily there.

You know, ace jack

without a flush draw or something like that.

I don't know if you'd three-bet pockets for it.

Basically,

for that small size, I can get a lot of hands that are doing better than me, right, to fold, which is great.

And if he has a club, right, if he has the ace of clubs in his hands, if he has the king of club in his hands, he's never folding even to a huge bet, right?

So I think that I'm not accomplishing that much if I bet bigger.

And also his hands that aren't very happy, I don't think he's ever raising me with red aces, right?

Or red kings,

because that board is just not a great board for him to do that.

So he calls.

And the river comes a queen of spades.

So pairs of board.

So now

seven, eight, nine, queen, queen.

Yep, three clubs, two spades.

And so at this point, I have king high, right?

Yeah.

I don't have much.

And the pot is huge.

And there's no way if I check, he's going to be checking back all of his Ace Highs.

Like he's going to be so happy to check that thing down.

But if I bet, you know,

he might hero call with some pairs, you know, now that the queen has paired, he might hero call some hands.

But if I shove, if I go all in for the pot, that's a huge, you know, that's a huge percentage of his stack too.

And if he calls and is wrong,

that's lights out for his stack.

And he's the chip leader of the table.

He's not the chip leader of the tournament, but he's the chip leader of the table, and that's a great position to be in.

So I shove

because, you know, after kind of thinking through my options, I figured that I can safely do that.

And I can represent a lot of strong hands that he does not have.

And by the way, when the queen of

spades and the queen of clubs are both on the board, it's much less likely that he actually has an ace queen, right, or king queen

because the suited varieties

are not there anymore for the ones that have backdoor draws.

If he has king queen, he might even fold it.

Yeah, absolutely.

So I shoved.

And the guy, so in retrospect, shoving into a guy whose screen name is Japanese Ritualistic Suicide by Disembowelment might not have been my finest people reading moment.

But so he goes into the tank and he starts running down his time bank.

And I'm like, oh, fuck, when they do that, right?

When they run down the time bank, like they're calling.

And then finally.

We have opposite experience.

I find like people.

People like to fold to me more than they like to fold to you, though.

I feel like.

Yeah, it's probably true.

Yeah.

But he didn't know who I was.

So eventually he folds.

And with that hand, I actually get the chip lead of the table.

And that was huge for me, right?

I'm still not chip leader of the tournament because all the chips are on the other table.

But I now have the chip lead because this bluff was able to get through.

And by the way, had he called, I would have been out.

right because all of his pairs even if he had pocket deuces

they beat me his ace highs beat me basically i'm losing to everything that we get there with um and a few hands later so at this point point I become the table chip leader, then I lose a few hands.

So

the person to my direct right, so he's the small blind when I'm the big blind, now covers me by a little bit.

And a few hands later, it folds to us

and he raises the small blind and he raises big, he raises to 4x.

And I happen to have queens in the big blind.

And I just, and I, at this point, I have

35 35

big blinds, something like that, 36.

And I just shove

because, you know, it puts max pressure on, and I don't mind just taking down that pot.

And he calls, and he has nines.

And that's very unfortunate for him, blind versus blind, right?

We both have legitimate hands.

And I hold.

And that puts me into, I think, third in chips in the tournament.

And after that, I,

you know, I went back and forth, but i had a big stack and i did not have any major losses um and was able to eventually yeah win the tournament but i think that that was kind of that was a that bluff the fact that that bluff went through was crucial and then having that queen's hand after you know a few hands later um i think was really important so one of those hands was skill right the bluff and the other hand was pure luck um because um you know it's it was lucky for me that he had a legitimate hand and that that legitimate hand wasn't Kings Erases.

I like nines.

I like nines too.

I like nines too.

Have you processed it yet?

I haven't.

I was very tired yesterday and I haven't really had a chance to let it sink in.

But, you know, it feels really nice.

I think it's a big accomplishment.

And

I'm just going to be proud of it.

God damn it.

I'm going to own it.

Yeah, you can't probably.

Anyway, we're really proud of you, Maria.

The whole show is, I think, in the audience.

So congrats.

Thank you.

Thank you.

I'm playing another event today.

Oh, geez.

Okay.

See, that's kind of low-key D-Gen, I feel like, to like be like, people do that too.

They'll be like, I just won a million dollars.

I'm going to jump into this $800 tournament.

If I want to fucking brace it, taking a few days off, tell you that.

Well, I'm going to do that.

Well, I'll be taking a few days off after this because I'm leaving the lovely state of Nevada and going to Miami.

So

I'm not going to be able to play poker there.

There is poker in Miami.

I'll have you know.

There is poker in Miami, but I will not be playing poker in Miami.

Okay, well, congrats, Maria, and let's talk about

nuclear war.

Yeah.

After the break, nuclear war and other fun things.

In today's super competitive business environment, the edge goes to those who push harder, move faster, and level up every tool in their arsenal.

T-Mobile knows all about that.

They're now the best network, according to the experts at OOCLA Speed Test, and they're using that network to launch Supermobile, the first and only business plan to combine intelligent performance, built-in security, and seamless satellite coverage.

With Supermobile, your performance, security, and coverage are supercharged.

With a network that adapts in real time, your business stays operating at peak capacity even in times of high demand.

With built-in security on the first nationwide 5G advanced network, you keep private data private for you, your team, your clients.

And with seamless coverage from the world's largest satellite-to-mobile constellation, your whole team can text and stay updated even when they're off the grid.

That's your business, supercharged.

Learn more at supermobile.com.

Seamless coverage with compatible devices in most outdoor areas in the US where you can see the sky.

Best network based on analysis by UCLA of SpeedTest Intelligence Data 1H 2025.

As many of you know, I've spent a lot of time studying what really makes people happy.

What works, what doesn't, and why.

And here's the truth.

It's It's not about having the perfect home or perfectly plated food.

It's about connection.

One of my favorite ideas is something I call scruffy hospitality, inviting people over even if things aren't spotless or fancy.

Because science shows that just gathering, laughing, chatting, maybe even cooking together gives our well-being a real boost.

That's why I love what Bosch is doing.

Their quality refrigerators use VitaFresh technology to keep fruits and veggies fresher longer, so you always have something on hand to pull together a meal.

And when you cook with fresh ingredients, you're not just making a meal.

You're showing people they matter.

Plus, meals made with real fresh foods actually promote more energized and joyful interactions.

Bosch appliances are designed to keep things running smoothly, so you can stress less and focus more on what really counts, the people you're with.

To learn more, visit BoschHomeUS.com.

Live in the Bay Area long enough and you know that this region is made up of many communities, each with its own people, stories, and local realities.

I'm Erica Cruz-Guevara, host of KQED's podcast, The Bay.

I sit down with reporters and the people who know this place best to connect the dots on why these stories matter to all of us.

Listen to The Bay, new episodes every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, wherever you get your podcasts.

All right, so we are recording this on Tuesday, October 15th,

and this is the week after all of the Nobel Prizes were awarded.

And the one I want to talk about today, Nate,

was, you know, one of the biggest Nobel Prizes that is often kind of awarded to make some sort of a statement.

And this is the Nobel Peace Prize.

And this year, it went to an organization called Nihon Hidankyo, which is an organization that was was founded in 1956 by survivors of the atomic bombs in Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

So

these are the Hibakusha.

That's the Japanese word for survivors.

And so

ever since it's been founded, they've been working towards a world basically where nuclear deterrence is strong, nuclear disarmament,

and they've been trying to kind of enforce this nuclear taboo, right?

That you cannot use nuclear weapons.

And so it means something that after all this time that they were awarded the Nobel Prize this year.

And so I want to...

First, I'd love to hear your reaction.

Then I wanted to talk about, you know, why now and why it's so important now that, you know, these survivors are in their 80s and there aren't very many of them left,

why it's so important that a group like this actually be

honored and what they're fighting for kind of be brought to the public consciousness.

Yeah, it was an interesting set of Nobel Prizes in general.

There were some AI-related awards.

Look, I think you kind of answered the question, which is that you're losing the generational memory of the only time that nuclear weapons were used in combat, which is by the United States on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

And,

you know, people at the time,

von Neumann, who was one of the kind of founders of game theory and worked on the Manhattan Project,

they all kind of assumed we were all going to die in like 20 or 30 years.

You know, a nuclear attack would be very bad.

The bombs have only gotten more powerful.

You know, what was it where during the Cold War, the U.S.

and the Soviet Union were

developing tens of thousands of these.

In fact, some people like von Neumann kind of half seriously proposed a preemptive strike on the USSR to prevent them from having the bomb.

You know, other people wanted to share the technology more widely.

But it seemed like a very dangerous thing.

And if you had asked somebody, what are the odds that this would be the last nuclear usage for the next 79 years,

I'm not sure what odds it would have given you, right?

In the Cuban Missile Crisis, Kennedy thought that we had

between a one in three and a one in two, so 33 to 50% chance of that conflict turning nuclear.

There have been accidents before.

I mean, the whole concept is a little bit screwy, right?

Well, because like

if you're unwilling to use weapons, then

they don't create a deterrent, right?

But if you are willing to use them, then that's a real risk.

And then the risk of accidents.

You know, Thomas Schelling talked about the threat that leaves something to chance.

To chance, yep.

And by the way, Thomas Schelling also won a Nobel Prize for that work.

So since we're talking about Nobel Prizes, let's call that out.

Yep.

So yeah, look,

you know, there is a lot of discussion now, including on the show, we've been a couple segments, on P-Doom, probability of doom, really bad shit happening, everyone blowing up

because of runaway, misaligned, artificial intelligence.

You know, nuclear war risk was the original P-Doom in the sense that it was the first technology that had the potential to wipe out all of civilization potentially, a threshold moment that the world kind of can't undo anymore.

And I wonder if people have gotten a little bit complacent about the risk.

The number of nuclear states is proliferating.

You know, North Korea, you know, I don't know who officially says they have what, but you know, North Korea has the bomb now.

Maybe not the best bombs, but you know, probably got a couple of bombs.

Bidet bomb.

Iran

has been trying to develop nuclear weapons.

In the Middle East, that's a hotbed, obviously, of problems right now.

And

Israel has this practice of strategic ambiguity.

So if you ask them, they'll say, ah, nuclear weapons, we never heard of them.

But clearly, part of their deterrence is based on the ultimate threat that they might have.

And Ukraine, right?

I mean, you know, one

fortunate thing about the theater of conflict in Ukraine

is that if you were to have a nuclear weapon detonated there, dirty bomb or whatever, it would potentially blow if trailing winds are east into Russia.

It would create fallout contamination over Russia.

So it's a little bit suicidal to do that potentially.

Yeah, I mean, look, this shit's serious.

It is serious.

And by the way, kind of the fallout risk to Russia, we saw that happen during Chernobyl, right?

Like it depends on what the wind conditions are, but

that was not a nuclear bomb.

That was just a, that was just an accident.

And

that is absolutely absolutely a very real thing.

Yeah, this shit is really, really serious.

And

I think that one of the really important things that the Nobel Committee tried to do was kind of try to re-up this historic memory that's dying out.

Because people who are survivors of World War II in general, you know, are dying, right?

We're living with kind of the end of that generation.

And you see, and I think that this is, you know, this is a trend all over the the world it's not just kind of nuclear threat but you see people who are like oh well maybe the holocaust never even happened right like the holocaust denialism like people like oh prove it right prove that this happened oh it wasn't so bad like people forgetting like what an absolute horror this was and now you have Vladimir Putin threatening saying, oh, you know, like, I want to make this nuclear threat real.

And what people don't, you know, tend to like gloss over in Thomas Schelling's work is that, you know, in his very famous example of the game of chicken, right, where you have two cars going head to head, right?

And you have to be the second, you have to not swerve, right?

You want the other guy to swerve.

That's the only way that you win.

He says that, you know, the way that you win is you rip out your steering wheel and you throw it out the window because that's a credible commitment.

Now they know, right, you can't swerve.

Like there's no, so they have to.

But what happens if both people

do that that at the exact same time and throw their steering wheels out the window?

They die, right?

And there's a plot of

Dr.

Strangelove, too,

which is, according to some experts, a parody of von Neumann.

But

so, yeah, what they wanted was a machine that would automatically retaliate if it detected an attack, because even if you therefore incapacitate the state, this is the one out to mutually assured destruction, right?

If you can destroy all their facilities before they have a chance to retaliate, before they can decide,

then you can do a first strike, right?

This is partly why there are so many different nuclear triad, air, sea, space, et cetera.

You want to make it impossible to do an incapacitation strike.

So yeah, the doomsday machine would have launched back automatically.

And so,

you know, look, I mean, the one thing I'll say is like,

it's another example of where game theory kind of has worked pretty well in the real world.

I think there's also a lot of

there's also a lot of back channeling, I think, with this stuff.

It's a very coordinated dance about like, what exactly are you saying, which maybe should make you feel better, is that like,

you know, there are the red phone, so to speak.

I don't know if there's literally a red phone anymore, right?

But like all these things

exist for a reason.

Yeah.

But I do want to, you know, there was something else that you said, which I think is important.

and also kind of the other element of the Doctor Strangelove thing, is that accidents happen, right?

And if you don't have a human on the other side, and this actually, this is where also the p-dooms of nuclear war and AI kind of

are dovetailing, right?

And one feeds into the other as you kind of seed control, automation, decisions, et cetera.

I want to just shout out Stanislav Petrov,

who was a lieutenant colonel in the Soviet air defense.

And he basically single-handedly prevented nuclear war in 1983 when there was a false signal that the U.S.

was attacking

the Soviet Union.

And his decision, he decided, you know, he couldn't reach anyone.

So like, it's plausible that there could have been some sort of retaliatory strike.

And he decided that this was a mistake, that there was not actually a strike.

And he made the decision to cancel the launch and to not launch nuclear weapons.

Now, he was right, right?

It was actually a glitch.

There was no nuclear attack against the Soviet Union.

But now imagine that it was someone else, right?

And imagine that there was someone who didn't kind of have the guts to make that sort of decision,

or imagine that it was an AI.

And we, you know, we are living in a very different world or not living in any world because then the Soviet Union actually physically launches nuclear weapons.

Obviously, then the United States retaliates.

And, you know,

I don't think even,

yeah, cluster fuck seems a little bit too weak of a phrase for that, but we're not living in a very happy place.

And I think that it's really important to remember moments like that as well, as we think about P-Doom, as we think about nuclear deterrence, as we think about the taboo on using nuclear weapons.

These are all really important questions.

And the world is forgetting and not just forgetting, but saying, oh, fuck it.

You know, there are lots of things going on right now that make it a pretty dangerous moment.

So I think that it's really crucial to have these conversations and to try to employ game theory so that we don't all

kill each other.

Do you think Trump would increase or decrease the chance of a nuclear conflict?

I think that's a...

I'm not sure.

I think that he would probably.

It's funny because I think back to Khrushchev, right?

We talked about the

Cuban Missile Crisis.

And I think one of the reasons that Kennedy thought that the risk of nuclear war was so high was because Khrushchev was fucking insane.

Like people, he could,

he didn't, you know, people didn't know what might happen.

And that was, but that was always kind of part of, it wasn't just him, right?

All of the Soviet leaders, leaders,

they tried to cultivate that insanity on purpose, because if I'm crazy and you don't know what I'm capable of, then you have to tread carefully.

And I think Trump is crazy in that sense, right?

You don't know what he's capable of.

I think he's much more capable of using nuclear weapons than Kamala Harris would be or basically than anyone else.

But I don't know if having him in power would deter other countries because they're scared of him.

So I think on the margin, it would probably, my P Doom would probably go up.

So

do you have a point of view?

I think he might lower it slightly.

Okay, interesting.

Because I think

he does create a little bit more of a deterrent potentially.

I don't think he's warmongering, actually, right?

I think he's crazy in lots of ways, but I don't think that's the way in which he is crazy.

And yeah, I don't

Yeah, I just don't know that we know the ways in which he is crazy.

And he's, you know, and he's getting on in years.

And I think that there is, kind of, and he's ranting.

I think there is some kind of threat to personality change that comes with dementia and age and all of these things.

So I just don't know, right?

This is not something where I can give you a clear-cut answer, as I've said, but I think it's interesting to consider.

And I think that in general, the threat of nuclear war has probably gone up

much more in the last few years than it has in a very long time.

Speaking of Trump, you want to talk a little bit of politics?

Yeah, let's do that after the break night.

In today's super competitive business environment, the edge goes to those who push harder, move faster, and level up every tool in their arsenal.

T-Mobile knows all about that.

They're They're now the best network, according to the experts at an OOCLA speed test, and they're using that network to launch Supermobile, the first and only business plan to combine intelligent performance, built-in security, and seamless satellite coverage.

With Supermobile, your performance, security, and coverage are supercharged.

With a network that adapts in real time, your business stays operating at peak capacity even in times of high demand.

With built-in security on the first nationwide 5G advanced network, you keep private data private for you, your team, your clients.

And with seamless coverage from the world's largest satellite-to-mobile constellation, your whole team can text and stay updated even when they're off the grid.

That's your business, Supercharged.

Learn more at supermobile.com.

Seamless coverage with compatible devices in most outdoor areas in the U.S.

where you can see the sky.

Best network based on analysis by OOCLA of SpeedTest Intelligence Data 1H 2025.

As many of you know, I spent a lot of time studying what really makes people happy.

What works, what doesn't, and why.

And here's the truth.

It's not about having the perfect home or perfectly plated food.

It's about connection.

One of my favorite ideas is something I call scruffy hospitality, inviting people over even if things aren't spotless or fancy.

Because science shows that just gathering, laughing, chatting, maybe even cooking together gives our well-being a real boost.

That's why I love what Bosch is doing.

Their quality refrigerators use VitaFresh technology to keep fruits and veggies fresher longer, so you always have something on hand to pull together a meal.

And when you cook with fresh ingredients, you're not just making a meal, you're showing people they matter.

Plus, meals made with real fresh foods actually promote more energized and joyful interactions.

Bosch appliances are designed to keep things running smoothly, so you can stress stress less and focus more on what really counts, the people you're with.

To learn more, visit BoschHomeUS.com.

In a region as complex as the Bay Area, the headlines don't always tell the full story.

That's where KQED's podcast, The Bay, comes in.

Hosted by me, Erica Cruz Guevara, The Bay brings you local stories with curiosity and care.

Understand what's shaping life in the Bay Area.

Listen to new episodes of the Bay every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, wherever you get your podcasts.

All right.

Last time we spoke last week, Nate, you said that there really hadn't been many quality polls that had come out.

This was kind of the first, that was the first week after the vice presidential debate, which, you know, what vice presidential debate?

I think at this point, everyone forgot that that even happened.

But there have been some more higher quality polls that have come out in the interim.

So

let's talk through it and let's talk through kind of the current state of the election.

Yeah, so we're taping this FYI on Tuesday, October 15th.

I have not run

the model update for the day yet.

I'm going to do that as soon as we get a break.

Harris, as of last night's model run, yes afternoon's 51% chance of winning Trump at 48.7.

Those don't end up to 100 because there's an 0.3% chance of a tie.

I wonder with every update if Harris is going to dip under 50%.

Like, not that it really matters, not that 49 versus 51 are magically that different.

But, you know, you've seen, you've had a slightly good week of polling for

Trump, right?

Where this two-point lead that Harris had in kind of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin has kind of turned into like a one-point lead or a five-tenths of a point lead, and that's just not a very safe position.

But like, all seven of the closest states remain within a point.

And, you know, and sub-level, I'm not sure what more there is to be said, apart from like it seems like we're locked into like

a very close election where you won't know.

Um,

we won't know much in the morning, we may not know much in the evening.

I mean, look, there is a chance that the polls are all off in the same direction.

Um, so uncertain is not quite the same thing as guaranteeing a close election.

But it, you know, I mean, keep listening to the podcast, folks, and reading the newsletter.

But like, how much more are you learning from the polls at this point?

All they're really saying is just it's just the average of the past two elections anyway, right?

So I'm not sure we're learning all that much.

I have a, I have a question for you.

So

relatively good week of polling for Trump.

Harris, still ahead in your model.

Why does polymarket currently have Trump at 58% to Harris's 41%?

That's a huge difference.

What's going on?

So what you had last week was

some whale activity.

What makes the gambling world work are whales.

Whales are rich people who are degenerates.

often bad at their chosen craft.

I mean, the term whale is a little bit ambiguous.

Like in crypto, it refers to someone who

was potentially a smart, very wealthy trader.

But generally, the connotation is that you're a degenerate gambler who makes a lot of money for the casinos or for the house.

So Elon Musk last week began tweeting about Polymarket, where I should run people, that I'm a paid advisor.

And that moved the numbers without any real underlying justification from the polling data that day.

And you can tell because there are a couple of things that were unusual.

One was that you didn't actually see any shift in the popular vote contract.

It was just the Electoral College, the higher profile one.

But a smart trader would be looking, if there's a shift toward Trump, that would manifest itself in all the markets and not just the Electoral College overall market.

But it's a lot of activity from a relatively small number of traders.

Now, since then, our model and other models, more actually our model than others,

have shifted a bit toward Trump, right?

So it's like 51%.

I mean, it had been up as high as 58% for Harris in September 27th.

So Trump has gained a little bit, but there's also this like disproportionate amount of nervous panic among Democrats.

They kind of feel like Kamala Harris has lost the plot and Democrats are perpetually worried anyway, although maybe they should be, right?

I mean, like, you know, look, if it's 50-50, then

a coin flip for very high stakes is more than non-degenerate gamblers usually want to undertake risk-wise.

And there's no safe path for either candidate anymore.

There's not going to be any security unless there's some really surprising development and we're running out of time for that to happen.

Yeah.

And, you know, it's clear that the Democrats are really taking this seriously.

You have

former President Barack Obama campaigning for Kamala Harrison, Pennsylvania.

Maybe they're now, maybe Nate, maybe they're now

regretting the decision to not have Shapiro on the ticket.

I'm not sure what to do with that.

Because they're, yeah, we've already, we've uh, we've talked about this ad nauseum, but um, you know, they're trying, they're trying to do everything they can.

Like, Obama is one of their big guns.

And we can, you know, this is another segment, but we can talk a little bit about like whether, you know, his messaging is effective, like what's happening.

But I think there is some panic there.

There's some panic that she's losing the black vote.

And like all of these things.

Not losing the black vote.

Losing, doing less well.

So the the New York Times poll, Trump is

getting 15% of the black vote, fairly high undecided among black voters,

but doing less well than Democrat typically does.

Yes, that was very poorly stated

on my side.

Yes, not losing the black vote, but doing relatively less well.

And in pen states like Pennsylvania, every single point matters, right?

Like we have talked about this over and over.

Like this is a close election.

Everything matters.

Undecided voters matter.

And yeah, people are clearly taking it seriously.

And, you know, on the one hand, you have Elon Musk jumping up and down on stage.

And on the other hand, you have Barack Obama.

Good.

I don't know, man.

I don't know.

He's got a little high off of fumes there.

Good old Elon.

Yeah.

Don't you understand that politics kind of cringe?

Anyway.

But like, I think people tend to

read these things like, oh, Kamala Harris is going on Joe Rogan.

She must be desperate.

It's like, well, she probably should have been doing more of this all along.

She should have gone on kind of

long.

Yeah, and the all-in podcast, right?

After Trump went on, like, she should have absolutely gone on.

Like, there are big media appearances that like she should have absolutely done earlier.

Yeah, look.

People read this as, oh, he must be desperate.

It's like, well, I don't know.

I mean, you're supposed to do campaigning, right?

That's a normal thing that you do.

I think they had a period where they just thought they'd ride the

uh charlie xcx brat summer magic vibes

carpet ride straight to the white house um

and that's not how usually it works i mean she's at an electoral college disadvantage and and

you know trump throws a lot of out there um

you know you've had much more

outspoken support for Trump among certain groups of voters.

The vibes are different, I think.

If you read kind of some of the

backstory of the part of Silicon Valley it's not all Silicon Valley it probably isn't most right

but you know part of what people have been trying to do in Silicon Valley is to say it's okay to openly support Trump and and that will create a permission structure for others to support him too and so

you know Twitter is a very different platform than it was four years ago

the mood is different I think ironically the fact that people seem like

a little bit less pissed off as they were in 2020 maybe democrats like actually want apocalyptic thinking

where people are like, okay, but yeah, I, you know, look, I think one fundamental problem Democrats have is

it's hard to say that every election is the most important election of all time without without voters starting to wonder if you just always say that.

Yep.

And on that note, let's let's see.

Let's see what happens next week because this is one of the most important elections of all time.

As we've talked about, you know, we've talked about P P-Doom.

We've talked about, you know, this is going to matter for a lot of different things.

And yeah, let's just see what the updates show next week.

And Elon Musk, please, please stop making us watch you jump up and down on stages.

Thank you very much.

That's a personal plea from one of the co-hosts of Risky Business.

Risky Business is hosted by me, Nate Silver.

And me, Maria Konakova.

The show is a co-production of Pushkin Industries and iHeartMedia.

This episode was produced by Isabel Carter.

Our associate producer is Gabriel Hunter Chang.

Our engineer is Sarah Bruguer.

Our executive producer is Jacob Goldstein.

If you want to listen to an ad-free version, sign up for Pushkin Plus.

For $6.99 a month, you get access to ad-free listening.

Thanks for tuning in.

You've probably heard me say this.

Connection is one of the biggest keys to happiness.

And one of my favorite ways to build that, scruffy hospitality, inviting people over even when things aren't perfect.

Because just being together, laughing, chatting, cooking, makes you feel good.

That's why I love Bosch.

Bosch fridges with VitaFresh technology keep ingredients fresher longer, so you're always ready to whip up a meal and share a special moment.

Fresh foods show show you care, and it shows the people you love that they matter.

Learn more, visit BoschHomeUS.com.

This is Justin Richmond, host of Broken Record.

Starbucks pumpkin spice latte arrives at the end of every summer like a pick-me-up to save us from the dreary return from our summer breaks.

It reminds us that we're actually entering the best time of year, fall.

Fall is when music sounds the best.

Whether listening on a walk with headphones or in a car during your commute, something about the fall foliage makes music hit just just a little closer to the bone.

And with the pumpkin spice latte now available at Starbucks, made with real pumpkin, you can elevate your listening and your taste all at the same time.

The Starbucks pumpkin spice latte.

Get it while it's hot or iced.

Live in the Bay Area long enough, and you know that this region is made up of many communities, each with its own people, stories, and local realities.

I'm Erica Cruz-Guevara, host of KQED's podcast, The Bay.

I sit down with reporters and the people who know this place best to connect the dots on why these stories matter to all of us.

Listen to The Bay, new episodes every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, wherever you get your podcasts.

This is an iHeart podcast.