Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova
Risky Business is a weekly podcast about making better decisions. The hosts, Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver, are both journalists who moonlight as high-stakes poker players. On Risky Business, they bring their analytical framework to everything from politics to poker to personal decisions.
Maria has a PhD in psychology and is the author of several books including, most recently, The Biggest Bluff. While researching the book, she inadvertently became a professional poker player, with over $500,000 in tournament winnings. She is a PokerStars Team Pro.
Nate is the founder and former editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, and one of the country’s leading election forecasters. He has over $800,000 in lifetime poker tournament winnings and his forthcoming book, On the Edge, is about gambling and risk.
Risky Business is a co-production of iHeart Media and Pushkin Industries.
Maria has a PhD in psychology and is the author of several books including, most recently, The Biggest Bluff. While researching the book, she inadvertently became a professional poker player, with over $500,000 in tournament winnings. She is a PokerStars Team Pro.
Nate is the founder and former editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, and one of the country’s leading election forecasters. He has over $800,000 in lifetime poker tournament winnings and his forthcoming book, On the Edge, is about gambling and risk.
Risky Business is a co-production of iHeart Media and Pushkin Industries.
Episodes (51)
Determinative Decisions Before Birth: Genes and Names
Nate is on vacation this week, so Maria is joined by journalist David Epstein, author of The Sports Gene and Range. They talk about a new company that offers comprehensive genetic sequencing on...
The Game Theory of Reality TV (with Survivor’s Boston Rob)
This week, Maria interviews reality TV legend Boston Rob. Rob has been on Survivor six times, and has also appeared on The Amazing Race, The Traitors, and Deal or No Deal Island. He’s a master...
Where the Puck Is Going: Why Maximum Gerrymandering May Be Inevitable
As Texas embarks on a rare round of mid-decade redistricting and California threatens to answer with its own, Nate and Maria analyze the history, politics, and game theory of gerrymandering. For more...
What’s the Optimal Personality for AI?
This week Nate and Maria discuss the release of GPT-5, the latest model from OpenAI. This model promises to be faster, smarter, and more useful while also reducing hallucinations and sycophancy. It...
Grand Theft Automated: How to Save a Trillion Lives from Cautionary Tales
A radical thought experiment transforms the lives of a new breed of philanthropists, as they follow the logic of altruism to extraordinary lengths. The most famous convert to the Effective Altruism...
America’s New AI Strategy
With all the frenzy last week around Jeffrey Epstein and ColdplayGate, you might have missed an important story: Trump’s new AI Action Plan. Released alongside three new executive orders on AI,...
You Play Better When You’re Having Fun (with Leo Margets and Erik Seidel)
To wrap up our coverage of the World Series of Poker, we bring you a poker interview extravaganza. This year, Leo Margets became the second woman ever to make it to the Main Event final...
The Butterfly Effect in Poker. Plus: How To Think About Conspiracies.
Nate and Maria share some updates from the final days of the World Series of Poker, and reflect on the importance of making peace with randomness. Then: the Trump administration’s sudden about...
Why did COVID Decision-Making Go So Wrong? (with David Zweig)
Early in the COVID pandemic, the US closed schools and sent kids home. And then, the schools stayed closed—even as they began to reopen in other parts of the world. Experts and officials claimed...
Live from Aspen! Zohran Mamdani’s Win, and How To Communicate Probabilities
Nate and Maria take a quick break from the World Series of Poker to tape a live episode at the Aspen Ideas Festival. They give some updates on a scandal at the World Series, then discuss Zohran...
Iran: Don’t Rush To Judge A Dangerous Moment
This week, Nate and Maria discuss Trump’s strikes on Iran. How can we understand this developing situation, without falling prey to our own biases? And when nuclear weapons are involved, how do...
Cautionary Questions with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova
Can game theory be used to win a world cup? Can you pay the way out of political corruption? And are there winning strategies in life we don't use because we're too embarrassed? We're sharing this...
Does Ranked Choice Voting Work? Plus, New AI Predictions
Nate and Maria report back on the ups and downs of the WSOP. Then, they discuss ranked choice voting and the upcoming New York City mayoral primary. This voting system is supposed to help a consensus...
This Year’s World Series Of Poker Is Different
Nate and Maria are back in Las Vegas for the World Series of Poker 2025. They discuss a key rule change that will have a major effect on their strategy. Then, they’re joined by a Risky Business...
An Elon Musk Report Card
Elon Musk has left the Trump administration. Nate and Maria talk about his brief but influential tenure, and discuss why overconfidence is a particular problem for people like Musk. Plus, they answer...
Why ChatGPT Sucks at Poker
ChatGPT is amazing at many things…but it can’t seem to figure out poker. Nate and Maria explain why, and talk about the implications for artificial general intelligence. Plus, they...
Motivated Reasoning in the Biden Campaign, Silicon Valley, and Beyond
We tend to use logic to reach conclusions that agree with our biases. Psychologists call this motivated reasoning. Today, Nate and Maria talk about motivated reasoning in the Biden campaign and...
What Should Colleges Do about ChatGPT?
Nate and Maria revisit their conclave predictions, and discuss Maria’s recent win in Monte Carlo. Then the talk about college students’ rampant use of ChatGPT to cheat on assignments, and...
Life After Poker (with Vanessa Selbst)
Nate and Maria interview former professional poker player Vanessa Selbst—the only woman ever to reach the number one ranking on the Global Poker Index. They discuss her experiences playing poker...
The Conclave, Sinners, and Negotiation Tips
The next pope will be chosen through a ritualized process involving secret ballots, smoke signals, and a lock-in at the Sistine Chapel. Nate and Maria talk about how the papal conclave works, and what...
The Right (And Wrong) Ways to Fight Trump
This week, Nate and Maria talk about the Trump administration’s deportation of Kilmar Abrego Garcia without due process. The stakes are high–but immigration is a stronger issue for Trump...
Will AI Radically Change the World by 2027?
This week, Nate and Maria discuss AI 2027, a new report from the AI Futures Project that lays out some pretty doom-y scenarios for our near-term AI future. They talk about how likely humans are to be...
Tariffs, Tariffs, Tariffs
Nate and Maria discuss Trump’s latest round of tariffs. What is the strategy here, if any? What should other decision-makers – like Elon Musk or the United States’ Congress –...
The Ivy League Bows to Trump, Plus Protecting Your Genetic Data and Your Time
This week – after a quick check in on their March Madness brackets – Nate and Maria discuss Trump’s showdown with the Ivy League. Should schools like Harvard and Columbia do more to...
Group Chat Protocols, Bracket Updates, and thoughts on the WNBA
This week, Nate and Maria discuss The Atlantic’s bombshell report about how its top editor was added to a national security group chat, and get into why the most major security risk is never...
March Madness Bracket Extravaganza
This week, Nate and Maria talk college basketball. Nate explains how he made his recently-released March Madness model. Then, they compare their tournament brackets. Maria gets some help from...
China’s Best Moves, and How to React to a Dealer’s Mistake
Last week, Nate and Maria talked about the game theory of American diplomacy right now. This week, they look at it from the perspective of America’s biggest rival: China. How should China...
How Trump is Getting the Game Theory Wrong
This week, Nate and Maria discuss Trump’s tariffs and analyze his strategy from a game theory perspective. They get into the difference between zero-sum and cooperative games, speculate on how...
Thinking Smart About Low-Probability Events
This week, Nate and Maria discuss the asteroid that had a 3% chance of colliding with Earth. That risk is now closer to 0%—but, what does this example reveal about how to consider extremely...
Trust and Facing the Unknown (with Rachel Botsman)
This week, Maria speaks with trust expert Rachel Botsman about her new audiobook How To Trust and Be Trusted. What is trust? Why, even in the face of overwhelming evidence, do we sometimes trust the...
Trump’s First Three Weeks: What Actually Matters?
Amid a maelstrom of executive orders and other presidential actions, Nate and Maria discuss best practices for staying focused on the important things. They also give their takes on what those...
Air Travel, Alcohol, and How to Bet On a Coin Toss
Our intuitive risk assessments can be way off–we’re too scared of hijackings, and not scared enough of crossing the street. This week, Nate and Maria discuss the real risks of plane...
Should You Learn Poker from ChatGPT? And Other AI Questions
In the wake of DeepSeek’s explosive entrance into the AI chatbot world, Nate and Maria talk AI strategy. At the national level and the personal level, what benefits does this technology actually...
Trump’s Strategy: Distraction and Executive Action
What do the decisions Trump has made so far tell us about his strategy for his second term? And what strategic options do the Democrats have? Nate and Maria talk birthright citizenship, tech CEOs,...
Wildfires, Insurance, and Planning for Disaster
Nate and Maria discuss the California wildfires. How do incentives in insurance markets drive decisions by homeowners – and by insurers? What’s the best way to make rational decisions...
Nate and Maria’s 2025 Predictions
Nate and Maria share their predictions for the year to come, covering everything from the price of Bitcoin, to the fate of President Trump’s cabinet picks, to whether Nate will wear skinny...
Learning From Failure, Avoiding Regret, and Managing Risk with Restaurateur Henry Rich
Maria talks to her friend Henry Rich about how he’s managed to find success in one of the world’s riskiest industries: restaurants. Themes include learning from failure, accounting for...
Luigi Mangione, the Rise of Bluesky, and High-Stakes Chokes
Nate and Maria talk about what Luigi Mangione can show us about the danger of black and white thinking, and how platforms like Bluesky and X create bubbles that make matters worse. Then, with the...
The Riskies: The Best, Worst, and Most Interesting Decisions of 2024
What were the best, worst, and most interesting decisions of 2024, and what can we learn from them? Nate and Maria award the year’s most notable decisions in our first annual Riskies awards...
Presidential Pardons and Other Family Gift-Giving Strategies
Is Biden on tilt? Nate and Maria analyze the Hunter Biden pardon and try to find the line between false equivalence and equivalence. Then, inspired by the president’s present, they offer some thoughts...
Maria and Nate’s Guide to GTO Travel
Nate and Maria share their game-theory-optimal travel strategies – the best time to get to the airport, the optimal airport meal, the value of rental car insurance, and more. Also: The biggest travel...
How Senators and NFL Players Make High Risk Decisions
Nate and Maria talk through the game theory of how moderate Republican Senators are likely to react to Trump’s controversial cabinet nominees. Then, they discuss the new “Guardian Caps” the NFL has...
Will Trump Bring the River to Washington?
Nate and Maria discuss the influence of Riverians like Elon Musk on the Trump Administration, and what’s next for Democrats looking ahead to 2026. Then, Maria tells Nate about a few key hands from the...
How Trump Won
Nate and Maria take a closer look at the results of the election. They discuss polling errors, prediction markets, demographic shifts, and campaign strategy. And Nate shares some parting advice for...
What to Look for on Election Day
On the day before the election, Nate gives a final model update, explains the latest polls, and talks about what he’ll be looking for on election day. Then, Maria and Nate trade their predictions and...
The Worst Decisions of the Harris and Trump (and Biden) Campaigns
What were the worst and best decisions of this year’s presidential campaigns? With less than a week to go, Nate and Maria look back at the key strategic decisions of the race.And of course, we spend...
Odd Lots: Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova on the Art of Election Betting
Earlier this election cycle, Nate and Maria appeared on Odd Lots to talk about prediction markets and election betting. It was a fun conversation -- and we're releasing it now for anyone hoping to get...
How to build a championship team, with Daryl Morey of the 76ers
This week, Nate and Maria talk to Daryl Morey of the Philadelphia 76ers about bringing game theory and probabilistic thinking to the NBA. And, of course, Nate and Maria discuss the election. For more...
How Maria Won Her First WSOP Bracelet
Maria snagged her first World Series of Poker Bracelet! She and Nate break down her strategy on the crucial hands that got her the win. Then, we turn our attention to the Nobel Peace Prize and the...
The Degenerate Gambler’s Guide to the Election
Nate and Maria give a degenerate gambler's guide to the election, covering everything from Nate’s $100k gamble on Florida to listener-inspired prop bets. Maria explains why poker bots are shaking up...
How to Win Bets and Influence Elections
Caroline Ellison, the second most important person who worked at FTX, was sentenced to prison this week. Nate and Maria talk about how she and Sam Bankman-Fried thought about making +EV bets (with...
About this Podcast
Copyright
2025 Pushkin Industries & iHeartMedia, Inc. 2024
Language
en-US
Categories
News, Politics, Society & Culture, Sports