Best Of Risky Business: Lessons From The River

Transcript

Speaker 1 This is an iHeart podcast.

Speaker 1 Guaranteed human.

Speaker 2 In today's super competitive business environment, the edge goes to those who push harder, move faster, and level up every tool in their arsenal. T-Mobile knows all about that.

Speaker 2 They're now the best network, according to the experts at OoCla Speed Test, and they're using that network to launch Supermobile, the first and only business plan to combine intelligent performance, built-in security, and seamless satellite coverage.

Speaker 2 That's your your business, supercharged. Learn more at supermobile.com.
Seamless coverage with compatible devices in most outdoor areas in the US where you can see the sky.

Speaker 2 Best business plan based on a combination of advanced network performance, coverage layers, and security features. Best network based on analysis by OOCLA of Speed Test Intelligence Data 1H 2025.

Speaker 1 The Chasinc Business Premier Card is a painful card with flexibility made for business owners who make things happen.

Speaker 1 Earn a total of 2.5% cash back on every purchase of $5,000 or more, plus, earn a limited 2% cash back on every other purchase, giving you unlimited earned potential to invest cash back into your business.

Speaker 1 Inc. Business Premier is part of a suite of credit cards from Chase for Business designed to meet your needs every step along the way.
Learn more at chase.com forward slash business card.

Speaker 1 Chase for Business, make more of what's yours. Accounts subject to credit approval.
Restrictions and limitations apply. Cards are issued by JPMorgan Chase Bank NA, member fdic

Speaker 3 if you're a maintenance supervisor for a commercial property you've had to deal with everything from leaky faucets to flickering light bulbs but nothing's worse than that ancient boiler that's lived in the building since the day it was built 50 years ago it's enough to make anyone lose their cool that's where granger comes in with industrial grade products and dependable fast delivery granger can help with any challenge from worn-out components to everyday necessities call clickranger.com or just stop by.

Speaker 4 Ranger for the ones who get it done.

Speaker 4 Hey, I'm Lindsay.

Speaker 5 Hydrodonitis superativa, HS, caused bumps and abscesses that made me feel embarrassed. I talked to my dermatologist and started a treatment that works for me, Cosentix.
I found relief.

Speaker 6 Cosentix secukinumab is prescribed for adults with moderate to severe hydrodonitis superativa, HS. Don't use if allergic to Cosentix.
Get checked for TB before starting.

Speaker 6 Increased risk of infections and lowered ability to fight them may occur, like TB or other serious bacterial, fungal, or viral infections. Some were fatal.

Speaker 6 Tell your doctor if you have an infection or symptoms, like fevers, sweats, chills, muscle aches, or cough, had a vaccine or plan to, or if IBD symptoms develop or worsen.

Speaker 6 Serious allergic reactions and severe eczema-like skin reactions may occur. Learn more at 1-844-COSENTIX or COSENTIX.com.

Speaker 5 You're stronger than HS. Ask your dermatologist about Cosentix.

Speaker 1 Pushkin.

Speaker 1 Hey everyone, we are off for the holidays, so we wanted to reshare one of our favorite episodes.

Speaker 1 Last year, when Nate's book, On the Edge, came out, I had a chance to interview him about it on the podcast.

Speaker 1 And I thought it would be really fun to take a look back at that interview where Nate was in the interviewee seat. Then I wrote a little review recap of the book on my substock.

Speaker 1 If somehow you are listening to Risky Business and you have not read the book, please read the book. It's wonderful, Nate.
You did such a great job. Thank you.
And I really enjoyed that conversation.

Speaker 4 Yeah, no, look, maybe I should go back and reread that. Look, I think the book is precious.
I think it's talking about all the kind of topics from,

Speaker 4 you know, prediction markets to AI to crypto that are only, you know, to gambling scandals, right? That are only becoming more pertinent today. But thank you for that interview, Maria.

Speaker 4 And yeah, maybe I'll take a listen to myself.

Speaker 1 Yeah, so enjoy, everyone.

Speaker 1 So first of all, Nate, congratulations.

Speaker 1 I know that this was a long time coming labor of many, many years.

Speaker 4 Yeah, no, I spent basically three years of my life where I'd say this is my main professional focus,

Speaker 4 talk to 200 people. And I don't know, I just, I would recommend email really smart people and ask to have a conversation with them and pretend it's for a book and then don't write the book.

Speaker 4 That's probably still worth it in some sense.

Speaker 4 But no, I actually went ahead and wrote the book.

Speaker 1 And we're very glad you did. So I'm going to start

Speaker 1 with,

Speaker 1 Nate, in the book, you make this distinction between two communities. You have the village and you have the river.
Talk me through what exactly those mean.

Speaker 4 Let's start with the village, even though it's not the focus of the book, just because it's a little bit easier to define in a term that's more conventional.

Speaker 4 The village is basically the kind of liberal progressive East Coast establishment. So it's the New York Times, it's Harvard University, it's think tanks and nonprofits.

Speaker 4 It's, you know, government, when you have a Democrat in office, at least, it's kind of the expert class, the professional managerial class, that whole cluster of attributes.

Speaker 4 By contrast, the river is kind of the world that I suppose I inhabit or I imagine myself inhabiting.

Speaker 4 It's the world of calculated risk-taking, where people are some combination of being very analytical and extremely wildly competitive.

Speaker 4 So, like, poker is an archetypal, maybe the archetypal river activity.

Speaker 4 But as I discovered this world in the book, you know, I found that the venture capitalists and the effective altruists and the hedge fund people and the sports bettors, even the crypto people,

Speaker 4 they all have a common vocabulary. They all talk about things in roughly the same ways.
And

Speaker 4 so it's like, it's not a place. It's a discrete community.
I mean, in Las Vegas and Silicon Valley, you might get closer to an actual network, but like.

Speaker 4 They're just these people that I think are often poorly understood by the mainstream media and yet are incredibly wealthy and powerful.

Speaker 4 Many of the richest people in the world have some of these river tendencies and like surprisingly to me would take my emails and my phone calls because they kind of recognize like a fellow traveler a little bit.

Speaker 4 And then what I discovered is that the kind of conceit of the proposal that actually there's a commonalities in how people think was more

Speaker 4 literally true than I had thought. And that there's more literal crossover.
Poker players who become effective altruists or hedge funders who host poker games or venture capitalists who do

Speaker 4 sports betting as a metaphor for some of these things.

Speaker 4 So it's a real place of a real group of people that I think, Maria, are in our circles. Maybe not the only circles we run in, but certainly one common type.

Speaker 4 And I felt like I had the opportunity to tell a really good story about these people. I did not, I think I got lucky.

Speaker 4 I think I'm running in my like 98th percentile run good for how some of these topics really blew up. I mean, AI in particular, although that was a fairly incidental thing in the book,

Speaker 4 effective altruism, and particularly Sam Bakeman-Freed, who I talked to first before the collapse and then got to talk to afterward as well.

Speaker 1 Yeah, so

Speaker 1 you draw some really interesting parallels between worlds that I didn't necessarily connect. Like, obviously, poker, sports betting.
Like, yes, you know,

Speaker 1 I get why those things are related. Then you go into finance, you go into venture capital and the hedge fund world in Silicon Valley.

Speaker 1 You go into AI and people who are kind of the AI researchers. And I actually love your little aside where you have the physical risk takers, where you have the astronauts.

Speaker 1 And I love that you have a female astronaut. By the way, did you on purpose, like, did you try to have two women or did that just so happen?

Speaker 1 You know, because as you know, like it's something that like is interesting to me. And when you're talking about risk takers, people often assume men.

Speaker 1 And so I was very curious if that was a deliberate choice or if it just so happens that these most interesting stories happen to be female.

Speaker 4 No, there was a deliberate choice made to, I mean, look, it's a careful balance to strike because it is a world that's very male. Also, a world that is...

Speaker 4 Poker's a little bit more diverse, but the rest of the river is quite white and or Asian and or Asian sometimes.

Speaker 4 So there was a deliberate choice to like

Speaker 4 not sugarcoat this and pretend it's all 50-50, but like, but also that I call them characters, the people I talk to, like Catherine Sullivan, this astronaut's amazing, and she has an amazing stories.

Speaker 4 And she was studying like oceanography in Nova Scotia and beat out like 10,000 other people to become an astronaut. I mean, it's an amazing story.

Speaker 4 Catalyn Carico, I had to learn all the names pronounced correctly for the audiobook, but now I've forgotten them, who was this woman who like smuggled money in a teddy bear to move out of hungary and then was just shat upon in the establishment while she was working on mRNA vaccines and eventually uh joined bioin tech um and won the nobel prize co-won the nobel prize for her work on mRNA vaccines i mean they have amazing stories or someone like our our mutual friend but one of the best poker players in the world i think maria ho who has great stories to tell too so so urbanessa selps is another person that we know but like is just an amazing person so yeah i mean when you find people like that and you want to tell their stories and there was but there's also sections that

Speaker 4 that directly tackle there's one section in the poker chapter about why aren't there more women in poker and then one section in the VC chapter about why are there so few black and Hispanic and women founders and so you have to take it on directly without it being a woke book because I'm not super woke but you can't but there are real shortcomings here I mean the VCs in particular I think are they claim to want

Speaker 4 people who have overcome, who have grit, who have overcome odds, and who are high variants, who are different different than the consensus, and yet they have this prototype of like the on-the-spectrum, you know, white or Asian 20-something nerd who dropped out of Harvard or MIT as a sophomore.

Speaker 4 And Sam McMinn Fried played into that stereotype. And they're not actually, I think, trying to diversify their portfolio.

Speaker 4 And just in a purely, not moral, but even like financial sense of wanting like high variance founders.

Speaker 1 Yeah, no, I think one of the things that I enjoyed about the book is that it's about how to take risk well, but you also talk about some of the shortcomings of

Speaker 1 the people on the river and how they think about risk. But first, let's talk about kind of the good elements.
So what does the river have in common when it comes to evaluating risk?

Speaker 1 What can we take away from them when we're thinking about, okay, I am, you know, Maria everyday person.

Speaker 1 How do I kind of think about risk in my life? What do I take from these people who take risks professionally so that I can just make better decisions and better risk assessments myself?

Speaker 4 So let me take the two axioms that you hear over and over and over again in Silicon Valley and make it very successful financially, despite having all these flaws.

Speaker 4 I mean, some of these guys are difficult people.

Speaker 4 It is mostly guys. It's not very diverse.
There are some big flaws, right? I think their political instincts are often poor.

Speaker 4 But they do two things, one of which is they understand expected value, which is kind of the theme of this show.

Speaker 4 They understand that if you can make a bet that has a 10% chance of 100x payout, that's an extraordinarily good bet.

Speaker 4 And if you can make a lot of those bets by aggregating different companies into a fund, then you're kind of guaranteed to make money and maybe make a lot of money.

Speaker 4 And it also applies to things like evaluating nuclear war risk or AI risk, things that might be, you know, a 2% chance in over some timeframe or 5% chance, whatever else, but have like very bad to infinitely bad negative payouts.

Speaker 4 The second thing that Silicon Valley knows is that having a longer time horizon is really worth it.

Speaker 4 We're a country that likes to make money, but we're a get-rich quick country and not a get-rich slowly country. When you're investing in startups, early stage startups, they often have a time horizon.

Speaker 4 You know, SpaceX took 13 years, I think, to make a first profit, nine years before they actually even launched a rocket successfully or something like that.

Speaker 4 So I think you almost always benefit from having like a longer time horizon than other people. People just discount discount the long-term future way too much, even in their personal lives, I think.

Speaker 4 And so therefore, those, I think, are kind of the two foremost lessons and why the book is, you know, kind of ambivalently to positive on that Silicon Valley ethos, even though the individual characters there are complex.

Speaker 1 So one of the things that you stress over and over is that people who evaluate risk correctly and make risks that tend to pay out over the long term, they

Speaker 1 not only can understand the upside, but they can also protect against the risk of ruin, right? The risk of not being able to take these risks going forward.

Speaker 1 So, first, I'd love for you to talk a little bit about this idea of risk of ruin, because you talk about people who do it correctly and then people who might not.

Speaker 1 And

Speaker 1 also, like,

Speaker 1 how do you balance that? And how might that be different from person to person?

Speaker 4 Yeah, I mean, we have this abstract concept in poker of a bankroll,

Speaker 4 which is, and that is how much money can you spend on poker before you're kind of poker broke or at least you're severely limited in the size of the games you might play and you might have to pass up positive EV opportunities.

Speaker 4 So, to some extent, this is related to the idea of opportunity cost.

Speaker 4 There's a famous formula from sports betting called the Kelly criterion, which tells you how much can you bet to maximize your expected value

Speaker 4 without enduring a very high risk of ruin. Now, I can get into the technicalities of why that formula might make you a little bit more aggressive than you should be.

Speaker 4 In general, though, like 90% of people in the world are, I think, too risk-averse about this kind of thing.

Speaker 4 This goes back to, as you'll know, like some of the Kahneman and Tversky work on prospect theory.

Speaker 4 It may have also an evolutionary basis where we weren't living in the time of abundance that we are now. And so,

Speaker 4 and so, you know, you only got one shot before it made sense to protect your household. It made sense to be very cautious about if you get an infection, you might die.

Speaker 4 And I think people have not adapted to this world of abundant but confusing opportunity that we have very much.

Speaker 4 Annie Duke wrote a book called Quit, and she's in the book too, also a former hooker player, of course.

Speaker 4 She cites studies like by Steve Levitt of Freconomics that when they have people flip a coin to make a decision and a major decision, not like am I getting Thai food or Indian for dinner tonight, which I do flip a coin about sometimes, by the way, but things like, should I leave my partner or should I quit my job or should I move across the country to a different part of the world?

Speaker 4 People are happier on average when they make a change. And so, you know, the 90% of people who are risk-averse maybe could take some messages from that book.

Speaker 4 But you also meet the SBFs and the Elon Musks of the world.

Speaker 1 And

Speaker 1 let's actually unwrap that last bit a little bit, the SBFs and the Elon Musks, because

Speaker 1 you write about the fact that, you know, obviously they are, people wouldn't,

Speaker 1 people don't necessarily lump them together, right? Because Elon Musk is someone who is richest man in the world and then SBF is going to jail. However, they do have this one characteristic in common.

Speaker 1 So I would love for you to expand on that a little bit.

Speaker 4 Yeah, and I should be clear. I mean, I don't mean to, I am very, and the book is very unsympathetic to SBF.

Speaker 4 I'm not saying I'm sympathetic to Elon, but Elon has accomplished a lot of things.

Speaker 4 And I think Elon's a real person whose career wasn't based on, I mean, I don't think Sam's whole career was based on fraud, but he didn't, you know, Elon has not committed $10 billion worth of stealing people's crypto deposits, basically.

Speaker 4 Yeah, they are the two people that really, really, really go balls to the wall. I think we can use that phrase in terms of risk

Speaker 4 taking. If you read the Walter Isaacson book on Elon Musk, his poker strategy is literally going all in every hand until he runs out of money or wins it all.

Speaker 1 I didn't know that. That was crazy to me.

Speaker 4 It makes sense, though.

Speaker 4 I've played in the all-in podcast poker game a couple of times with some of Elon's buddies, and that's a very aggressive game, shall we say.

Speaker 4 I'm forbidden to reveal details, but there's a lot of blind, naked aggression there.

Speaker 4 You know, SBF is even

Speaker 4 more unambiguously, I think, irrational in taking a very literal approach of utilitarianism where, you know, he has said repeatedly, he told his co-founder Carolyn Ellison this, he told the economist Tyler Cowan this, that if he could flip a coin to determine the fate of the world, and either half the time the world

Speaker 4 is destroyed, but the other half the time the world is like 2.01x is good, then he's calculating the expected value. He's so committed to that that, hey, you know, 1.0005 is greater than one.

Speaker 4 Therefore, you would take the coin flip, even though you might destroy the world. And in fact, you take that coin flip repeatedly over and over again.

Speaker 4 this is called the st petersburg paradox where um it's a bet that has infinite expected value but is infinitely likely to leave you ruined so what should you do probably not take the bet it's not that hard a dilemma actually um but to sbf it was and in my interviews with him you kind of um

Speaker 4 find a pattern of him saying i mean in the first interview i did with him when he's riding high january 2022 bitcoin still near its all-time peaks he's like if you're not really literally willing to ruin yourself not the fake ruin like if elon musk has to sell Twitter and he's only worth $170 billion instead of $220 billion,

Speaker 4 that's not what I would describe as being ruined.

Speaker 4 And Sam was very clear that I don't think you should protect your downside.

Speaker 4 You have to be so risk-loving that you should literally be willing to like destroy your life and your reputation if it's positive expected value, which I think is insane.

Speaker 4 I think reflects, I mean, not a clinical diagnosis, but I think literally some, I think he's a somewhat defective person emotionally in other ways. And, and,

Speaker 4 you know, the fact that he was enabled by so many supposedly smart actors is, is a core question that's asked by the book. I mean, I, you know, the

Speaker 4 New York Times Review understood this, which is that it's like the book is actually pretty unsparing to some of these characters in the river, even though like, it's not a book where I'm going to be like, Peter Thiel is evil and Elon Musk is evil and a fascist.

Speaker 4 Like, that's not my style of writing. And I think, I think they're interesting people who deserve to have their stories told by someone who kind of understands the personality type.

Speaker 4 But SBF was a really dangerous figure.

Speaker 4 And on top of everything else, like also a fairly bad calculator of risk. His decision to go take the witness stand at his trial after the government's testimony was just incredibly devastating.

Speaker 4 And they had him dead to rights and contradicting everything he told.

Speaker 4 people publicly, everything he told me in interviews that were on the record, although with an embargo, I mean, they couldn't be used until the book was released.

Speaker 4 You know, the willingness to lie, plus the constant miscalculations he made, where he probably could have avoided jail time by conceding defeat and not taking the witness stand, not avoided all the jail time, but 10 years or five years and not 20.

Speaker 4 You know,

Speaker 4 why

Speaker 4 did so many people vouch for him is a question that I think

Speaker 4 has to be pondered.

Speaker 1 We'll be back after a quick break.

Speaker 1 When you give to a nonprofit, how do you measure success? You'll hear a lot about things like low overhead costs and efficient fundraising, but what about the actual impact on people's lives?

Speaker 1 GiveWell, this episode's sponsor, focuses on that impact.

Speaker 1 They've spent more than 70,000 hours on research to help donors fund highly cost-effective programs that save or improve lives to the greatest extent possible per dollar.

Speaker 4 GiveWell has spent 18 years researching global health and poverty alleviation and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they've found.

Speaker 1 Over 150,000 donors have already trusted GiveWell to direct more than $2.5 billion.

Speaker 1 Rigorous evidence suggests that these donations will save over 300,000 lives and improve the lives of millions more.

Speaker 4 You can find all of their research and recommendations on their site for free.

Speaker 4 And thanks to the donors who chose to sponsor their research, GiveWell doesn't take a cut from your tax-deductible donation to their recommended funds.

Speaker 1 If this is your first gift through GiveWell, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year or as long as matching funds last.

Speaker 1 To claim your match, go to givewell.org, pick podcast, and enter Risky Business at checkout. Make sure they know that you heard about GiveWell from Risky Business to get your donation matched.

Speaker 1 Again, that's GiveWell.org with code RISCKYBUSINSE to donate or find out more. When you own your own business, you own every decision.
Now own the card that rewards you for it.

Speaker 1 The Chase Sapphire Reserve for Business Card brings the best Sapphire Reserve benefits to business owners who expect hardworking rewards.

Speaker 1 Designed to meet the needs of business owners at scale, this pay-in-full card elevates your travel experience and offers premium benefits and value towards business services that will take your business to the next level.

Speaker 1 Sapphire Reserve for Business provides over $2,500 in annual value.

Speaker 1 Fuel your business and maximize rewards with 8x points on all purchases through Chase Travel, 3X points on social media and search engine advertising, annual partnership credits, and more.

Speaker 1 Make every journey more rewarding with a $300 annual travel credit and access to a network of airport lounges whether you're looking for pre-flight productivity or time to rest and recharge.

Speaker 1 Chase Sapphire Reserve for Business with over $2,500 in annual value. It's a card that gives back all you put in.
Learn more at chase.com forward slash reserve business.

Speaker 1 Chase for business, make more of what's yours. Accounts subject to credit approval, restrictions, and limitations apply.
Cards are issued by J.P. Morgan Chase Bank NA, member FDIC.

Speaker 2 They're now the best network, according to the experts at OOCLA Speed Test, and they're using that network to launch Supermobile, the first and only business plan to combine intelligent performance, built-in security, and seamless satellite coverage.

Speaker 2 With Supermobile, your performance, security, and coverage are supercharged. With a network that adapts in real time, your business stays operating at peak capacity even in times of high demand.

Speaker 2 With built-in security on the first nationwide 5G advanced network, you keep private data private for you, your team, your clients.

Speaker 2 And with seamless coverage from the world's largest satellite-to-mobile constellation, your whole team can text and stay updated even when they're off the grid. That's your business, supercharged.

Speaker 2 Learn more at supermobile.com. Seamless coverage with compatible devices in most outdoor areas in the US where you can see the sky.

Speaker 2 Best business plan based on a combination of advanced network performance, coverage layers, and security features. Best network based on analysis by Ookla of Speed Test Intelligence Data 1H 2025.

Speaker 7 What's up? It's Big Loan from It's Up Dead Podcast. On this episode, we're unpacking the difference between toxic love and a real bond.

Speaker 7 How so many of us were taught to survive love instead of experiencing it. A lot of men think being solid means being silent.
I'm good. I got it.

Speaker 7 That's the script we memorize before we even know ourselves. Because somewhere along the line, expression got labeled weakness.
So now we perform composure while we're falling apart.

Speaker 7 You'll share your body, but not a conversation. And that's not intimacy.
But what if being a man really means you care enough to communicate? Real love isn't loud. It's consistent.

Speaker 7 It's the small things, the small check-ins, the shared accountability, the honesty that feels awkward, but keeps everyone safe. Stop confusing numbness with dependability.

Speaker 7 We got to break the cycle and break the pattern.

Speaker 7 This special episode of It's Up There Podcast with Long brought to you by Healthy Sexual from Gilead Sciences on the iHeart radio app or wherever you get your podcast.

Speaker 1 You actually touched on something there, which I think is important to unwrap a little bit more, which is that if you're taking these huge gambles, you better be pretty damn sure your calculations are accurate, that your percentages are accurate.

Speaker 1 But we're living in a world where you can't do that. And so I'm curious, you know, you build models, right? That

Speaker 1 try to kind of model things that are uncertain, that are unknowable, that have this margin of error.

Speaker 1 And so I think you understand more than most people that, you know, if you say 60% certain or like 60% chance of this, like you're not actually like that there is a margin of error there, right?

Speaker 1 Like if you 51%

Speaker 1 likely that that you're going to have a plus EV and 49, what if you're wrong, right? Like, what if it's 49 that you're

Speaker 1 actually negative EV and 51 that you're going to destroy civilization? So,

Speaker 1 I'd love you to walk us through that thinking and through kind of the hubris that you both need to succeed in some ways in this area, but also that might make you overconfident of these sorts of percentages where you really, really can't afford to be.

Speaker 4 Yeah, look, we've seen bad election models. We saw models that gave, yeah, saw models that gave Trump a 1% chance or 0.1% chance of winning in 2016.

Speaker 4 We saw models earlier this year that gave Biden, even after he had tanked in the debate, a 50-50 chance of winning, which didn't make any sense.

Speaker 4 Even building models for these kind of closed problems like

Speaker 4 elections or sports forecasting is pretty tough. You have a lot of choices to make as a modeler.
Your biases might creep in and other things.

Speaker 4 So

Speaker 4 to then kind of take these very back of the envelope informal models and try to apply them to every problem in the world is, you know, obviously prone to going wrong to some extent.

Speaker 4 And like in effective altruism, they're very literal about this.

Speaker 4 I talked to Will McCaskill, who was kind of one of the founders of at least the brand name of EA and wrote a book called What We Owe the Future.

Speaker 4 He calls himself a long-termist, meaning he's concerned about the very, very, very far future.

Speaker 4 The first time I talked to him, he was like okay so how do we weigh like a human's life against an animal's life and he's like well it should be based on the number of neurons in the animal's brain or maybe the number of neurons to the one-third power or something like that is a good approximation but that leads to weird things like an elephant elephants elephants are actually worth more than human beings by that calculation it turns out um but you also face these uncomfortable decisions the book uses a story of a time when a dog named i don't know if it's a i didn't know yeah Yeah, I didn't realize that the poodle, like, I didn't know the story.

Speaker 1 So yeah, please.

Speaker 4 There's a poodle that name named Dakota that gets loose in Prospect Park or some park in North Brooklyn from its owner and dashes into the subways at the first stop inbound on the F train from Manhattan to Brooklyn.

Speaker 4 So this is happening at like 3.30 on a weekday. So you're starting to get the rush hour commute.
And the question is, should we shut down the entire F-line

Speaker 4 in order to search for and rescue Dakota, which they did. And Dakota popped up at some other subway station an hour or so later.

Speaker 4 But that's a case where,

Speaker 4 this is how I put it in the book.

Speaker 4 If you had like a human baby who had fallen onto the tracks, like no one would dispute that we should halt. every train until that baby is found.

Speaker 4 If it was a squirrel, then we would just run out of the squirrel, right? No questions asked.

Speaker 1 We would. We would.
I mean, I hate squirrels.

Speaker 4 And the dog

Speaker 4 is intuitively kind of a close decision. And so, and so, and but the fact is that you have to make a decision.

Speaker 4 And we had to make these decisions in COVID where, you know, what's the cost of shutting down schools versus the cost of preventing some degree of sickness and death, right?

Speaker 4 I mean, that's a real, that's a real trade-off. Or things that are more intangible.
What's the cost of

Speaker 4 undermining people's happiness because they can't, at least they're not supposed to see their friends in person during COVID, or they can't go to a baseball game or go to a restaurant or see their dying relative in a hospital or go to church, all these other things.

Speaker 4 Like, like, what's the cost of that? And we make these decisions with, with, you know, different heuristics and different rules of thumb that are often very clumsy and maybe

Speaker 4 words of magnitude wrong. I think the decision to keep schools shut down after vaccines were available is like.

Speaker 4 wrong by like 10x or 100x, like unambiguously a terrible decision that some blue states made even after vaccine availability.

Speaker 4 So you kind of get in this dilemma where

Speaker 4 you have to make decisions, you have to make some calculation, but I think people underestimate how back of the envelope these are.

Speaker 4 And when you start to put numbers to things, then people sometimes stop asking questions about models when they should ask more questions.

Speaker 1 Is there something that you would recommend? Because this is something that I've come across many times at a wall I hit in a lot of my research.

Speaker 1 Is there something that you have seen in people who are are successful where they are able to modulate or at least like

Speaker 1 self-check their overconfidence and their hubris? Because it seems like most of the people on the river don't do that, right? Like Elon Musk, absolutely not. Like Peter Thiel, absolutely not.

Speaker 1 Like all of these men who you talk about, they don't seem to have a switch where they can be like, okay, you know what? Let me take a step back and self-evaluate.

Speaker 1 Did you find anyone who was able to do that? And if so, how? Like, how do you do that?

Speaker 4 Um, I mean, in some ways, some of the poker players I talk to seem like they're more at ease with themselves and can modulate it somehow.

Speaker 4 You know, Jason Kuhn, for example, is an interesting poker player who has some very, you know, had a rough upbringing, has some very aggressive tendencies, but I think has some type of perspective of there's this very competitive part of him that he understands can be unleashed, but has to be, you know,

Speaker 4 meted out in doses somehow.

Speaker 4 Look, there is some bias in the book in the following sense, which is that the people who are quote-unquote crazy or the people who really like to talk about themselves and take crazy risks make for better stories.

Speaker 4 So, yeah, I mean, I'm thinking about like, you know, Michael Moritz is a Sequoia capital,

Speaker 4 venture capitalist who's been very successful, early investor in Google and many other companies.

Speaker 4 He's a guy who I think is probably pretty measured, actually, a former journalist, Michael Moritz.

Speaker 4 Vinod Khosla is another one who invests in kind of alternative things like alternative energy or, you know, what's it called? Artificial meat, things like that.

Speaker 4 I mean, he seems to be like reasonably well-balanced. Patrick Collison, the founder of Strife.

Speaker 4 And these people are all in the book, but because they're less bombastic, they maybe get like both a little bit less of a write-up from me and then

Speaker 4 kind of having some lost in translation problem too.

Speaker 4 But yeah, look, overconfidence is a really big problem for people on the river because by definition, these are people who probably won their first couple of big bets.

Speaker 4 Sometimes by skill, sometimes by luck. I'd say often more luck than skill, but usually some of both.

Speaker 4 And when you're on a winning streak, then you can think that you're God's gift to whatever venture that you happen to be involved in. And you can be overconfident.

Speaker 4 And because there is like, there is like fruitful territory. I mean, the village leaves a lot to be desired for how it assesses risk and does other things.

Speaker 4 And so, you know, you can, in some ways, the critiques that these two communities have of one another are both pretty smart. I mean, I think the Rivers critique of the village, that these guys

Speaker 4 are too risk averse, that they're partisan, that they're too concerned with social perception. I think that's basically right.

Speaker 4 But also, some of the Silicon Valley founders and VCs are total arrogant pricks.

Speaker 1 Yeah, that's one way of putting it.

Speaker 1 And I think that something that you just hinted at,

Speaker 1 which is, I think, going to necessarily be like a problem when you're trying to figure out who to interview for the book.

Speaker 1 And it's just in this industry, well, in the world in general, is we have this survivor bias, right? Which

Speaker 1 we see the people who are successful. How are you going to go out and interview all the people who took these risks

Speaker 1 where it didn't pan out? One of the things that really struck me as I was reading your book was when you actually did some of these simulations, right?

Speaker 1 And you actually wrote out what the numbers looked like if you had different strategies. And some of them I was like, holy shit, right?

Speaker 1 Like this crazy risky strategy, like, yes, you die 95% of the time, but like, look at that 5%.

Speaker 1 But that 5% is mostly who you end up interviewing, right? Because they become the Elon Musks of the world. So what does that do to kind of our perceptions of some of these traits, you know? Yeah.

Speaker 4 And so look, this became a little bit easier. I'm just speaking kind of behind the scenes as a writer.

Speaker 4 When the SBF thing blew up, then that became easier. There's originally going to be like a chapter on

Speaker 4 failures, but that meant more people that like, you know, won a poker tournament and then developed some type of problem afterward or whatever else.

Speaker 4 But like SBF kind of served enough of that role where

Speaker 4 narrative-wise, I thought it was okay. I mean, there is one story about

Speaker 4 a person named Run Bo Lee, who was a smart guy, University of Toronto.

Speaker 1 That was kind of a heartbreaking story.

Speaker 4 Yeah, go ahead. Yeah, he came to me and he said, you're writing this book about these successful people.
Just kind of cold emailed me.

Speaker 4 And he's like, I'm somebody who got really burned by day trading, by day trading options in particular um getting into all the wall street bets kind of communities and he has lost a million dollars on options trading and and and he wanted to tell a story and i'm like this story has to go in the book there's also you know the chapter on las vegas which is chapter three um is about how casinos particularly through slot machines kind of manipulate their patrons into spending more i mean the stories i heard from natasha shull who is an uh kind of an amazing woman she's an nyu anthropologist who had like never been out of the East Coast.

Speaker 4 And she's like, Las Vegas is an exotic place. I want to study Las Vegas as an anthropologist, did her dissertation about it, then wrote a book about it.
And that's a story about problem gambling. And

Speaker 4 although I didn't talk to that many problem gamblers, really,

Speaker 4 you know, it gets very dark about slot machine addiction.

Speaker 1 Well, one of the things actually that really was interesting to me there because I hadn't read Schull's book

Speaker 1 was this insight that you that you go into

Speaker 1 which is that a lot of these problem gamblers the people who play thought machines they know they're losing and they don't care that they're just like they enjoy like they enjoy that experience even though they lose and to me like that was actually an aha moment because I always thought that at least they thought they could win right that like one of the allures was that like you might be a winner but you even said that some of them don't like winning because it brings them out of that flow state yeah you're in some machine zone, Natasha Schull calls it, the machine zone where it's just you and you're pressing the reels.

Speaker 4 And,

Speaker 4 you know, I don't have much of a compulsion to play slots, but I've tossed in a few bucks here and there when you're frustrated at the end of a poker tournament.

Speaker 4 And some of the games are very fun and compelling, right? You got like gorillas or what's the big one? Not gorillas, but Buffalo, Buffalo, Buffalo.

Speaker 1 I've never played slots in my life.

Speaker 4 Even I'm going to force you to, I'm going to give you money to play slots, I think, Maria, so you can no longer make that brag, which I find nitty, by the way.

Speaker 4 But yeah, they want to shut out all the other distractions of the world and just channel it into like one problem, which is

Speaker 4 problem gambling, which is very different than like

Speaker 4 the table games players. The blackjack craps player more often fits the stereotype of somebody who is bored because they don't have enough risk tolerance in their life, enough risk in their life.

Speaker 4 And so they're using this as a way. And some of this is gendered too, if you want to go there.
But like, you know, men feeling the need,

Speaker 4 if you've been in enough craps tables, craps I do find fun, don't play it much.

Speaker 4 If you've been in enough groups of guys at a craps table where they'll encourage one another to make bets that, you know, every craps bet's negative EV,

Speaker 4 but also to play outside their means and gamble bigger, so they'll have stories to tell. I mean, that's, you know, that's a certain type of young man is more likely to do that kind of thing.

Speaker 4 And it might substitute for other types of ways to prove their bravery.

Speaker 4 but like the slots machines players and then the the skill game players the the poker players the sports betters the handful of advantage players which means um people who try to count cards in blackjack there are conditions please do not

Speaker 4 try this yourself. There are conditions under which playing slot machines can be plus EV because of contingencies in the machines or bonus payouts or jackpots that become sufficiently large.

Speaker 4 But those are those are 1% of the gambling world. i mean sometimes maria i feel like you and i are used

Speaker 4 you know

Speaker 4 some of the prestige resorts generally speaking the prestige resorts in las vegas and elsewhere have the best poker rooms the win

Speaker 4 um the aria uh etc resorts world now um allows you i sometimes wonder if like we're used a little bit to to whitewash the fact that like 99 of people in that casino are doing negative expected value gambling

Speaker 1 no i mean that i think that's true and i do and i do overlook that

Speaker 1 on purpose because I don't like paying attention to that. Right.

Speaker 1 But but yeah, no, I think you're right. And

Speaker 1 I don't want to judge anyone for, you know, playing slots or doing whatever they're doing, but I do find it a little bit depressing when I see people who don't have an edge and who are just kind of pressing buttons.

Speaker 4 Yeah, look, I

Speaker 4 comfort myself by saying that poker, at least, I think, is

Speaker 4 plus C V and a utilitarian calculus for society, just because I think it is such a unique teacher of certain critical life skills in an environment where you have something real at risk.

Speaker 4 I just think that poker, playing poker makes you more adept at handling real-life, risky situations a lot of the time.

Speaker 4 You know, apart from that, I mean, I think

Speaker 4 there's a lot in the book about sports betting.

Speaker 4 I think there's more papers coming out saying that sports betting increases bankruptcies among exactly the classes of people that you would expect like you see oh an uptick in bankruptcies and males age 20 to 39 i wonder what could have caused that when sports betting went online in x and y state um

Speaker 4 you know look i think the slot machine stuff is probably quite bad from utilitarian standpoint i think the state lottery is actually maybe the worst of all on a kind of a per capita basis where the odds are very bad for the player and the socioeconomics of who plays the state lottery are it's basically attacks on like lower class people for the most part um so there's a lot of hypocrisy there are also lots of arguments about the arms race that hey if we don't legalize this game then maybe somebody else would right i mean if i had my um

Speaker 4 you know if i could perfectly calibrate it then maybe i'd have something where you have a

Speaker 4 casino that offers poker and table games but not slot machines and maybe you have sports betting which can be done in person at a facility but not online where the addiction seems to be higher and they have fairer rules where you don't limit winning players, et cetera, and you have limits on how much you can take from whales.

Speaker 4 Like there's a world in which

Speaker 4 I would be, I think, more content with. And again, I'm not a moralistic person.
The book is not going to be scoldy. And I believe in showing and not telling, but like, it's not like the

Speaker 4 gambling industry comes out looking great. It comes out looking smart.
It comes out looking like it understands how to like model its customers out.

Speaker 4 And I would say one thing to say in counter to this is that if you go to the mid to high range resorts in Las Vegas, my subjective view is that people seem to be having a pretty good time, and Las Vegas gets a lot of repeat business, so there's some type of win-win in that deal.

Speaker 4 But I might

Speaker 4 draw the line a little bit higher than like a total free-for-all, which is kind of where we're headed now.

Speaker 4 We'll be back in just a minute.

Speaker 1 The Chase Inc. Business Premier card is made for business owners who make things happen.
Designed for a high spend and limitless cashback, Inc.

Speaker 1 Business Premier is a painful card with built-in flexibility. Get the buying power you need to make large purchases, cover unexpected expenses, and help your business grow.

Speaker 1 Earn a total of 2.5% cash back on every purchase of $5,000 or more, plus, earn unlimited 2% cash back on every other purchase, giving you unlimited earned potential to invest cash back into your business, from innovation and technology to everyday expenses.

Speaker 1 Inc.

Speaker 1 Business Premier is the only business credit card with 2.5% cash back on every purchase of $5,000 or more and is part of a suite of credit cards from Chase for Business designed to meet your needs every step along the way.

Speaker 1 Learn more at chase.com forward slash business card, Chase for Business. Make more of what's yours.
Accounts subject to credit approval, restrictions and limitations apply. Cards are issued by J.P.

Speaker 1 Morgan Chase Bank NA, member FDIC.

Speaker 2 They're now the best network, according to the experts at OoCla Speed Test, and they're using that network to launch Supermobile, the first and only business plan to combine intelligent performance, built-in security, and seamless satellite coverage.

Speaker 2 With Supermobile, your performance, security, and coverage are supercharged. With a network that adapts in real time, your your business stays operating at peak capacity even in times of high demand.

Speaker 2 With built-in security on the first nationwide 5G advanced network, you keep private data private for you, your team, your clients.

Speaker 2 And with seamless coverage from the world's largest satellite-to-mobile constellation, your whole team can text and stay updated even when they're off the grid. That's your business, supercharged.

Speaker 2 Learn more at supermobile.com. Seamless coverage with compatible devices in most outdoor areas in the US where you can see the sky.

Speaker 2 Best business plan based on a combination of advanced network performance, coverage layers, and security features. Best network based on analysis by UCLA of Speed Test Intelligence Data 1H 2025.

Speaker 7 What's up, y'all? It's Big Loom from Miss Up Death Podcast.

Speaker 7 In this powerful episode, we're breaking down the danger of silence and how way too many of us are taught to protect the vibe instead of protecting ourselves.

Speaker 7 We spend more time researching cars, microphones, sneakers, then we will researching on how to protect our bodies and our partners.

Speaker 7 If you have an honest conversation, one uncomfortable minute can save you a lifetime of regret. The CDC says nearly one in five people carry an STI.
and most don't even know it.

Speaker 7 Real intimy isn't built in the dark. It's built in the disclosure.
Condoms, testing, transparency. Those aren't passion killers.
They're peace builders. It's too much risk in our silence.

Speaker 4 Speak up.

Speaker 7 You can listen to this special episode of It's Up Dead Podcast with Loon, brought to you by Healthy Sexual from Gilead Sciences on the iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcast.

Speaker 8 Hi, it's Eva, and I think it's about time you discovered the world's first luxury hospitality brand at sea, the Ritz-Carlton Yacht Collection.

Speaker 8 Imagine setting sail on an all-inclusive voyage where every moment is entirely yours.

Speaker 8 Explore the Amalfi coasts, the islands of Thailand, or Alaska's glacial fjords and the lagoons of French Polynesia.

Speaker 8 Or maybe just stay aboard and indulge in a spa day, dining from Michelin-starred chefs and kayaking directly from the exclusive marina platform.

Speaker 8 There are so many possibilities and so much time to relax. Every journey, unlike the rest, the Ritz-Carlton Yacht Collection.
Learn more at RitzCarltonYacht Collection.com.

Speaker 1 I have a few questions, but first I'm just curious, are you still

Speaker 1 doing sports betting? So I loved that you picked it up in a serious way for the book, although, holy shit, I had no idea that you'd wagered over a million dollars for your research.

Speaker 1 Nate, I didn't know.

Speaker 1 But

Speaker 1 yeah, tell us about that and tell us what you're doing right now.

Speaker 4 So I wanted to have skin in the game, to borrow another author's phrase, and see what it's actually like when you're going through the grind of sports betting and NBA season.

Speaker 4 So I bet almost the entirety of the 2022-23 NBA season, all the regular season, then about half the playoffs and then 538 blew up.

Speaker 4 And so I had other things to do and I didn't bet the end of the playoffs.

Speaker 4 And I learned that, I mean, it's probably what I should have expected, but I learned that it's pretty hard.

Speaker 4 I went on a huge heater at the start of the NBA season where it was up like 70,000 bucks. I'm like, man, I'm really fucking good at the sports betting stuff.

Speaker 4 But then things change. One thing that changes is you start to get limited by some of the sites, especially if you're trying to do things like, oh, I just suck because I'm a Twitter addict.

Speaker 4 I follow a lot of NBA writers. Oh, Damian Lillard of the Portland Trailblazers is injured today, but the line at Sportsbook X does not yet account for that.

Speaker 4 So let me go and bet $3,000 on this bet, which is now hugely positive EV. You can do it the first time, maybe the second time, the third time, your hands are cut off, basically, kind of literally.

Speaker 4 So, when you aren't able to take advantage of things that, you know, in principle, I think you should be. I mean, if they're posting a line, they're taking action on it.

Speaker 4 And the fact that, like, in the NBA regular season, it's all about is this player injured? Who is trying to actually win and who's not?

Speaker 4 The models that you have at the start of the season don't work as well when you're kind of in this like triage phase of the trenches of the NBA regular season.

Speaker 4 Um, and you know, and you talk to other bears, like, yeah, I have three guys whose entire job is spanky. Kira Lewis is a guy who we interview in the book.

Speaker 4 I have three guys who just track injury data for me. And meanwhile, I'm trying to like do some Twitter search for is this player in the warm-up.

Speaker 4 You know, you're competing essentially against the best players, the best bettors in the world.

Speaker 4 So I, of that $1.8 million in bets, and believe me, this is just like on average,

Speaker 4 the bet size is like $1,200. You're making $1,500, $1,200 bets or whatever over the the course of the season.

Speaker 4 I made about $5,000,

Speaker 4 probably spent about 5,000 hours on this. So I made less than minimum wage, actually, with

Speaker 4 my sports betting side hustle.

Speaker 1 I love it. I love it.
So I want to ask two more things before we wrap up.

Speaker 1 The first is kind of a theme that I, and I think I picked up on this because, you know, it's something that I've obviously thought about

Speaker 1 a lot.

Speaker 1 And it's the strand that is woven throughout the book, which is that even though the book is about skill, about finding edges, about how to make plus EV gambles, there is this thread throughout it of luck, right?

Speaker 1 And of the fact that you also do need to get lucky. And you, you actually, you point to a lot of these moments where things could have turned out so differently.

Speaker 1 Like, you know, to pick a random example, the car crash that Peter Thiela and Elon Musk were in, right? Like what happens if the car lands differently?

Speaker 1 And I don't know if you want to talk about that specific example, but this is something that you're clearly very aware of. And I just want to raise it and talk about it a little bit.

Speaker 4 Yeah, there is a survivorship bias problem when you're writing a book about successful people.

Speaker 4 And literally, kind of in the case of Elon Musk and Peter Thiel, Elon had sold his first company, bought like a million-dollar McLaren F1 or something sports car, basically almost like a, you know, Formula One caliber car, and they're driving it on, I think, Sandhill Road or somewhere in Palo Alto,

Speaker 4 and Elon floors the accelerator while trying to change lanes, and it kind of spirals up into like doing a little helicopter motion and miraculously lands on its wheels, and Elon and Peter are okay and actually hitchhike to their VC meeting.

Speaker 4 And I guess keep PayPal alive with that hitchhike. But so I asked Peter Thiel,

Speaker 4 you know, I asked him in a way that was nerdier. I asked him, if you ran the world a thousand times, had a thousand simulations, then how often would you wind up in this position?

Speaker 4 And he objected to this question and went on a whole thing about determinism versus probabilism, which is interesting, but we don't have time for today, I don't think.

Speaker 4 But yeah, life is very contingent.

Speaker 4 We've talked on this show about the assassination attempt against President Trump, where that was a very close call, or things like the butterfly ballot in the 2000 election, which is in one ballot in one county in Florida in 2000.

Speaker 4 The ballot had a funky design where some people who would have wanted to vote for Al Gore wound up voting for Pat Buchanan instead.

Speaker 4 And that was enough to cost Gore the election on top of the recount stuff in Florida. It wouldn't have mattered if this ballot design had been better.

Speaker 4 So life is, whether it's literally metaphysically random or not is a philosophical question, but it's random to our ability to determine it in a lot of ways.

Speaker 4 And it's just, it's just very hard

Speaker 4 to acknowledge the role that luck plays in your life. It's very hard, even for me or for you, maybe you're the exception, Maria.
It's very hard not to tell yourself a clever narrative in which,

Speaker 4 you know, even in writing the book,

Speaker 4 I think I've gotten very lucky with a lot of things to kind of have like this SBF story like fall into my lap, for example, was I think pretty lucky.

Speaker 4 And having a book that covered territory like AI that kind of became a much bigger deal and sports betting really blew up.

Speaker 4 I mean, you know, so I think I've gotten very lucky in a lot of things recently.

Speaker 4 The way that like, you know, I didn't know that actually having this independent newsletter is actually, actually much better economically than being working for a big company. I didn't know that.

Speaker 4 And I could easily have taken a deal with another big company and wound up worse off for it in a lot of respects.

Speaker 4 And so I, you know, I know the role that luck has played in my life, including just things like being basically healthy and having a supportive partner and supportive friends and being born into a country where it's okay to be a gay man and a country where

Speaker 4 you have some downside protection. I mean, those are all things that are very lucky.

Speaker 4 So, you know, the next time that I take a cooler in poker or lose set of rissette or something, then I can't complain too much.

Speaker 1 Well, I had more questions, but that seems like such a beautiful place to end that I think I have to not ask my remaining question.

Speaker 1 But yeah, I mean, obviously this is something I've thought about a lot and was kind of the big theme of the biggest bluff.

Speaker 1 But it's nice to see that, you know, that this is something that you're thinking about as well, because I do think that it's easy for us to get overconfident.

Speaker 1 And I think that as we, you know, during risky business and all of these endeavors, we do want to maximize our skill, but we do need to always remember that we are insanely lucky to even be in this position.

Speaker 1 So Nate, I hope that you get, continue to get lucky and that this book sells an insane number of copies and that it does incredibly well, and that you and I can continue making this show together because we're both continuing to be lucky and yet take plus EV edges whenever we can.

Speaker 4 Thank you so much, Maria. And Mino, maybe if you want to have me on the show again sometime, you know, I had a lot of fun.
We have a good chemistry, I think.

Speaker 1 I agree. I agree.
So, yeah, you're welcome back. How's next week looking for you?

Speaker 4 Actually, really fucking busy, but we'll make it work.

Speaker 1 Let us know what you think of the show. Reach out to us at riskybusiness at pushkin.fm.
Risky Business is hosted by me, Maria Konakova.

Speaker 7 And by me, Nate Silver.

Speaker 4 The show is a co-production of Pushkin Industries and iHeartMedia. This episode was produced by Isaac Carter.
Our associate producer is Sonia Gerwit. Lydia, Jean Cott, and Daphne Chen are our editors.

Speaker 4 And our executive producer is Jacob Goldstein. Mixing by Sarah Bruguer.

Speaker 1 If you like the show, please rate and review us so other people can find us too. But once again, only if you like us, we don't want those bad reviews out there.
Thanks for tuning in.

Speaker 9 Honestly, honestly, honestly, no one wants to think about HIV, but there are things that everyone can do to help prevent it. Things like PrEP.

Speaker 9 PrEP stands for Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis, and it means routinely taking prescription medicine before you're exposed to HIV to help reduce your chances of getting it.

Speaker 9 PrEP can be about 99% effective when taken as prescribed. It doesn't protect against other STIs though, so be sure to use condoms and other healthy sex practices.

Speaker 4 Ask a healthcare provider about all your prevention options and visit findoutaboutprep.com to learn more. Sponsored by Gilead.

Speaker 8 Hi, it's Eva, and I think it's about time you discovered the world's first luxury hospitality brand at sea, the Ritz-Carlton Yacht Collection.

Speaker 8 Imagine setting sail on an all-inclusive voyage where every moment is entirely yours.

Speaker 8 Explore the Amalfi coasts, the islands of Thailand, or Alaska's glacial fjords and the lagoons of French Polynesia.

Speaker 8 Or maybe just stay aboard and indulge in a spa day, dining from Michelin-starred chefs and kayaking directly from the exclusive marina platform.

Speaker 8 There are so many possibilities and so much time to relax. Every journey, unlike the rest, the Ritz-Carlton Yacht Collection.
Learn more at RitzCarltonYacht Collection.com.

Speaker 10 This is Sophie Cunningham from Show Me Something. Do you know the symptoms of moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea or OSA in adults with obesity?

Speaker 10 They may be happening to you without you knowing.

Speaker 10 If anyone has ever said you snored loudly or if you spend your days fighting off excessive tiredness, irritability, and concentration issues, it may be due to OSA.

Speaker 10 OSA is a serious condition where your airway partially or completely collapses during sleep, which may cause breathing interruptions and oxygen deprivation. Learn more at don'tsleep on osa.com.

Speaker 10 This information is provided by Lilly, a medicine company.

Speaker 1 This is an iHeart podcast.

Speaker 1 Guaranteed human.