San Antonio Gets Fox, Luka-Lakers Day Two Angles, and Super Bowl Props With Kirk Goldsberry and Cousin Sal

Coming up, second pod of the weekend. Let's talk more Luca.
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If you missed it, Ryan Rosillo, Rob Hone, and I on Saturday night, out of nowhere, Luka Doncic gets traded to the Lakers for Anthony Davis and other stuff. And we just hopped right on.
We did a podcast. You can find it on YouTube and the Bill Simmons YouTube channel.
You can find it on Spotify, wherever you get your podcasts. So this is the second podcast of the week.
We'll get to that in a second. Don't forget, Super Bowl 59 is happening.
It's all happening on Fandle too. You can opt in and bet on a player to score an anytime touchdown.
If they score the first touchdown of the game, they win their anytime TD bet and split 2.5 million in bonus bets with everyone else who used their token on that player. So if you use it on like AJ Brown scores first touchdown the game, 10,000 people use their token on AJ Brown.
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If the player scores the last TD of the game, the customer wins their anytime TD bet and splits the 2.5 million in bonus bets with everyone else who used their token. On that player, you are going to hear Cousin Sal and I talking about all of our favorite Super Bowl props.
So we're going to hit this one specifically as well. My favorite anytime TD pick, a whole bunch of other stuff that's coming up in a second.
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So remember, Sal and I come in later with our annual Super Bowl props. We did not expect that to be the second segment on this podcast

because I'm bringing in Kurt Goldsberry. There's just some extra stuff since that trade happened last night.
We're reacting to that trade in real time. Now it's Sunday afternoon, PT, and we've learned a lot.
We've read a lot. We've heard a lot.
We've talked to some people and we're going to lay down a second set of thoughts, a day removed from the most shocking trade, I think, in NBA history.

So Kirk Goldsberry next, then Cousin Salad doing Super Bowl props first.

Once again, our friends from Pearl Jam. All right, Kirk Goldsberry is here.
We are taping this a little before 6 o'clock PT on Sunday night. I invited Kirk to talk about day two of the Luka Doncic Lakers trade because we'd covered it last night.
A whole bunch more to discuss more meat on the bone. But as we're preparing to the pod, of course, there was another major trade that included a team Kirk used to work for the San Antonio Spurs.
Fox to the Spurs, Levine to Sacramento with some picks. Chicago basically gets their 2025 pick back and take some contracts.
And the headline, Kirk, is that San Antonio did not give up a lot for De'Aaron Fox. So why? They're in a different regime.
I think they're officially now built in try to win mode, which is sort of a big paradigm shift for the San Antonio Spurs that have been in rebuild mode. But now they're trying to win mode.
I think this is the symbolic threshold of a team that's ready to compete. Okay, so why didn't they give up more picks to get Deere and Fox, who I had number 20 on my trade value list? Because I didn't have to, was the short answer.
They gave up some draft capital, obviously. I think those are some nice picks they gave up.
But I expected maybe to see Devin Vassell's name, maybe see Jeremy Sohan's name. I think, yeah, you're right.
The headline is that none of those guys, as we have right now, are included in this deal. So they kept Wemby, Fox, they added Vassell, Castle, who I think was a non-starter, Sohan, Harrison Barnes, Kelton Johnson, CP3, Champagny.
Yeah. Pretty nice nine.
Now CP3 coming off the bench, maybe playing with Fox. We've seen CP3 in OKC.
He was playing with Schroeder and with SGA. He weirdly knows how to play with other small guards.
If I'm a Spurs fan, I'm out of my mind that this was the trade because they gave up the 27 Spurs first. I don't care.
I have Wemby. I'm going to be one of the best 10 teams in the league in 27.
They gave up the 2031 Minnesota first, which hurts. That might be a real pick.
They got this, um, they gave up this 2025 Charlotte pick that is basically one through 14 protected and it's going to turn into two seconds and Sacramento gets two first five seconds and they get Zach Levine, who I think we both really liked this year. I actually think he's an asset.
I love it. But again, they don't have a North Star.
The Sacramento Kings have been like this my whole life. I don't know what they're trying to do.
Now they've reunited the great DeRozan-Levine duo. They reunited an eighth seed for multiple years from the East.
The East Coast eighth seed is back for vengeance this time. Vooch has to be feeling left out.
Come on, guys. We could have gone 43 and 39 together.
Why am I still in Chicago? Yeah, for me, the story here is in San Antonio, Bill. The Spurs have a sort of a stopgap point guard in Chris Paul, who's been great.
Harrison Barnes has been great. But this is a player in Fox that is a young, great offensive weapon that I think will pair very well with Victor Wambanyama.
This is a team that I think was going to have a very high defensive ceiling just because of Victor for years to come, but the offense was the question mark. This helps them address that.
And now I think it's like we have Victor at the five, we have Fox at the one. Let's surround two, three, and four with defense and shooting.
And I think there's a clear team building project in front of them that they are thrilled to have. It's a pretty simple problem now as opposed to a bigger problem.
Yeah, and they still have a bunch of picks. They have the two, three, four spots, a lot of length, some potential shooting, although they haven't been shooting the ball this year, but ultimately you're hoping there's going to be some shooting.
And they protected their nucleus and they still have another trade to make. I still feel like the only, the only like no way they're trading these guys on the Spurs would be Wemby, now Fox and Castle.
And everyone else is still in play for me. And they have contracts they can put

together. They're not going to trade for Jimmy Butler, but if he was a little more enticing, that's the type of trade.
Maybe they could trade for Luka Doncic if he fails his physical in the Lakers, and it turns out he's 290 pounds. But this is an awesome trade for them.
In my head, this was a four or five firsts

and probably Sohan

or Vassell

in it. Seemed like that was it.
But I guess if you're the Spurs, you're like, look, man, we're not giving up a lot for this dude. He wants to come here anyway.
He's from Texas. We'll just get him in a year and a half.
So we can do this now and you'll get some stuff or we'll just wait. We're on no rush.

We're not going to win the title.

One thing Eddie Johnson said on my pod on Thursday,

I thought was a great basketball,

ex-basketball PowerPoint was about Fox as a lefty with Wemby as a righty versus Fox as a lefty with Sabonis as a lefty,

which I thought was cool.

But I like the idea of Fox, you know,

not great when players push their way out of a team,

but you know, he gave him a heads up.

I'm not going to resign here.

He's been pretty clear about that for the whole season.

Thank you. Fox, not great when players push their way out of a team, but he gave him a heads up.
I'm not going to resign here. He's been pretty clear about that for the whole season.
He picks San Antonio. He picks this whole Wemby circus that will become a circus in a good way because you're attaching yourself to one of the generational superstars in the league.
You fit in nicely with him. Now you throw those lobs at the righty, as Eddie was pointing out.
And it just feels like an incredible career move for Fox.

It really does.

It's like, wow, I totally get what you're thinking here.

Yeah, I couldn't agree more.

I mean, obviously, we had the big piece on Victor on the ringer last week.

I went all in on this guy.

And then he had a great game in Paris right after, so I felt good. But everybody around the league is seeing the same thing that we are, Bill.
De'Aaron Fox among them. This is a superstar.
In the Ringer 100, he's gone from number 67 to number 6 in less than two years. You had him as the number one trade value asset in the league.
Do you agree with that? Of course. I mean, he's 21.
He's a 25-point-a-game scorer, and he's the best defender in the league. And this is the worst Victor we'll ever see, is his famous quote about himself.
And he's not just the best defender in the league. He's decidedly the best defender in the league already.
He absolutely disrupts and devastates games with his defense

and really fucks teams up already.

There was a sequence in Paris at the end of the third quarter

that I'd ask everybody to go watch

of the first Pacers game in Paris

where Victor blocked four shots in a row.

One was a goaltend.

And then he made a three, threw a lob,

and caught a lob on the other end of the court. And that was just like, all right, that's crazy.
That's what De'Aaron Fox is seeing. That's what everybody else is seeing.
This dude is only getting better. And I think the Spurs are really excited today to have another piece in place, another all-star level piece for the future to build an offense, specifically, Bill, around a guy who, and I think this is your term, looks like a giraffe on ice a little bit sometimes on offense.
De'Aaron Fox is going to take care of some of that and they can grow together. And is there a better, just a lob game than Fox and Wemby? I love it.
I don't know if Fox is on a, if this is going to be like a Chicago Bulls run for Wemby someday or a Lakers run or, you know, a Kobe Gasol run or a 2010s Warriors run. I'm not sure.
Fox to me seems more like a Clay Thompson, Draymond Green level star. He's not like a true number two.
He's not the Kobe to Shaq, something like that. It still feels like there's room for them to get one more awesome wing.
And then that's the threesome. Wemby, awesome wing, Fox.
And they have two years to figure it out. They're not going to win the title this year.
They're not going to win the title next year. But they have the pieces to figure this out.
And as we're seeing now, not just with Fox, Wemby is becoming a seductive spot in San Antonio. If you're a player that wants to win, that wants to kind of be along for the ride for some titles and some playoff appearances in a place with no state tax, a really good organization, it becomes pretty enticing.
So here's the small market model working. Well, yeah.
And I wrote this in the Wemby piece, but there's like two guys under 26 in the Ringer Top 100s, top 10 rankings. Victor Wembenyama is by far the youngest.
And the other one is Luka Doncic, who is about to be 26, right?

So, I mean, Wemby has, he's going to be Doncic's age in 2029, I wrote, which is just crazy.

Just think about how much time he has to get better.

And look, yeah, he is there.

He's going to be this great player.

I don't want to sort of belabor the point.

But this is a deal that the Spurs, they don't make a lot of trades.

They don't want to sort of belabor the point, but this is a deal that the Spurs, they don't make a lot of trades. They don't do this kind of thing historically.
So this is a big deal for them, and I'm sure they're pretty happy with it. They didn't, like I said, I think the other headline is they didn't give up Castle.
They didn't give up Vassell. They didn't give up Sohan.
And they still have Atlanta's pick this year, which is looking really good. By the way, how is that pick not in this trade? Because Jalen Johnson just goes out and that Atlanta pick is going to be somewhere probably between nine and 14 in a really loaded draft.
Maybe even better than that. Atlanta is cratering right now, unsurprisinglyurprisingly without jaylen uh so yeah i think they're in really good shape and you know nobody nobody's nobody's truly

surprised by that but this is the kind of move that that a pop organization hadn't typically

made this is a team that builds through the draft um through savvy free agency signings

doesn't usually go after a big trade piece like this so So it's a big deal for the San Antonio Spurs. I'm just relieved that, and we got some of it with Chris Paul this year, but I am a big, if you have a big guy, you have to have a good or very good point guard that can take care of him.
If I have a good eater in my house, I want to have a good chef to cook for the, if I have a Hall of Fame eater in my house, not going to go to the crappiest grocery store. I want real meals for my guy.
Sacramento now has a team of Sabonis, Levine, DeRozan, Malik Monk, and Keegan Murray, basically as the, I guess guess the crunch time five I guess that means some Monk playing playing some point to Rosen having the ball this is just turning into a let's just play our best five guys together they don't really have another point guard maybe they'll try to get one maybe they can try to flip an asset into something but it's just a weird weird team. And you mentioned earlier, it's a directionless team.
It's a team. When we worked at Grantland together 10 years ago, we got a lot of comedy out of.
They took Stauskas. What was that with the eighth pick? And it was that video of Vivek going around the table, like Stauskas, Stauskas going around.
And we all got a kick out of that. They've just been a train wreck forever.
Really since 2000. It's been 20 years of this.
Then two years ago, they get the two seed. Light the beams happening.
They got a little something with Sabonis and Fox together and it feels like they're on the right way. And this year, they fire their coach.
They bring in Doug Christie. They start winning a couple games.

It's like, whoa, okay, feeling good again.

And then Fox has that trade request and it craters everything again.

They lost by 180 points to OKC yesterday

and became clear something was going to happen.

What would you tell a Kings fan?

It feels like the same old thing to me, Bill.

The West has been brutal

since we've been covering basketball together. You're looking at teams like Memphis, Houston, Oklahoma City, San Antonio for the foreseeable future, not to mention the L.A.
Lakers. Edwards.
Yeah. Yeah.
Yeah. Not, it's just, okay, what are you trying to do to get past teams like that?

Um,

so it's not a slight against the Kings,

but it is,

do you really. okay, what are you trying to do to get past teams like that? So it's not a slight against the Kings,

but it is, do you really think this is going to beat the Grizzlies

or the Rockets or the Thunder?

I don't see that with a team built around DeMar DeRozan and Zach Levine.

And it was a cool story when they were like,

Because we've already seen it.

That's right. Yeah, I think you're right.
Because we have seen it. Um, so bonus playing with those guys is a fun wrinkle.
I mean, the right kind of sophisticated offensive coach could probably have fun with this team. I'm not sure Doug Christie's our guy for that.
Um, and if I'm a Sacramento fan, I'm just bummed. I'm bummed that we didn't get the Atlanta pick.
I'm bummed I didn't get at least three firsts. I'm bummed I didn't at least get, I don't know, Sohan back, something.
Could we have turned Keegan Murray into Devin Vassell? You know, makes the Spurs, they just didn't get any of it. And then from the Chicago side, you know, this is the, this is the Reinsdorf middle.
That's what they call it. Can we be between 36 and 44 wins every year? Can we have the illusion of hope? I think in their case, like that team's not a contender.
I wanted to see Budzelis play more. I actually like him.
Yeah, you like him. They had to carve out some minutes for him.

They got their first round pick back.

I would assume the next move is Vucevic being traded somewhere.

Maybe they moved Josh Giddey.

I don't know,

but it would seem like

this is a move toward

let's now finish in the bottom 10

in the league

and try to get another good pick, right?

Yeah, and I think they reclaimed

their own pick, which is great. So they can be there.
But yeah, Vucevic has some value on the market. I know teams like Phoenix or Golden State have been looking for shooting bigs, and he matches that description.
This guy is one of the best jump shooting bigs. Defensively, he leaves a lot to be desired.
But I think he's a good player. And I wouldn't be surprised to see, you know, by the end of this week that he's playing in a different uniform.
So when you say a lot to be desired, you mean because he doesn't play defense? I think his nickname was Layup Line, if I'm not mistaken. But I might be mistaken on that.
You're being kind. I like, I like how you are cutting guys down sometimes in the like nicest possible way.
He leaves a little to be desired. Like, is he a guy you could maybe score 70 points against in the right game? Yes, he is.
Uh, anyway, Chicago. Now we can add them to the whole, to the capture the flag sweepstakes try to get in there

last thing Add them to the whole capture the flag sweepstakes. Try to get in there.
Last thing I'll say, and then we can move on to the Luka trade because I really have other stuff I want to say about Luka and everything that happened. This interesting moment for Darren Fox.
We see these guys call their shot, right? These guys that push their way to another team. They're usually about half a level higher than Darren Fox, or they have some sort of playoff pedigree, like in Jimmy Butler's case.
In this case, he doesn't have it. I think he's a player we've all thought was really talented.
He's about to hit his late twenties. We've seen him in the playoffs.
You know, um, he didn't, he didn't leap out in any great way. There's not It's not like some Anthony Davis, that one him in the playoffs you know he didn't leap out in any great way it's not like some Anthony Davis that one year in the playoffs when he just laid waste to the Blazers he doesn't have any of that and I think we all think he's really good but now this spotlight is completely different you're playing in Sacramento, you're buried you're just another team in the west with all these famous players and teams.
Now you're playing with the most famous international

player that this league's going to have.

It's a different level of scrutiny and everything.

Yeah.

It should be symbiotic.

These guys should make each other better.

De'Aaron Fox's

strengths should play into Victor Wembenyama's

strengths and vice versa.

The dude is

lightning. He's one of the faster players with the ball in his hand in the league.
Do you think the Spurs want to play like that? I think when you have him, you have to. Are they going to want to push and run and go? Is Wemby going to want to do that? I mean, the first pass you look for, Victor Monyama gets a defensive rebound.
Now that first pass is, okay, can he get Fox at midcourt on this sort of Bill Walton-style outlet pass, you know, this Kevin Love over yet. So I think you, when you have Randy Moss, you throw the ball deep.
And I think you, when you, when you get this, this is not Chris Paul, right? Like they've been playing with Chris Paul. He's slowing everything down.
Yeah. Cause he's old in a good way for him, but you know, so I think they will play fast.
And I think, you know, Victor at the five is one of the more, you know, agile five men in the him. So I think they will play fast.
And I think Victor at the five is one of the more agile five men in the league.

So I think you'll see that pace number creep up in San Antonio.

You have a bunch of young guys now.

So I think they will play to his strengths.

And he should get some easy buckets.

And he's a crunch time guy for them too would be the

other piece crunch time yeah for sure um the shooting has always been his his his challenge but like if you look at his free throw number which is what us nerds look at it's great he shoots 80 from the free throw line that should be a 40 three-point shooter it just hasn't been there. I'd love to see him, as he goes into

sort of his late 20s,

become a 37, 38,

40% three-point shooter. He hasn't

done that yet.

And that's the thing that could take him over

the top and make this a triumph for the Spurs.

But he has

a lot of

potential here, and

you're right. It's a laser focus for him.
Crunch time. Fox, Castle, Vassell, maybe Sohan, Wemby.
It's a pretty good defensive team. It's not going to make a lot of threes.
There are going to be some bad shots. But defensively, that's a pretty interesting team.
And you'd probably, I guess, target Fox and go after him and try to put him in pick and rolls. But other than that, those are all guys that I think would be in pretty good shape.
Anyway, interesting trade. Anytime you can get San Antonio, Sacramento, and the Mediocre Bulls together for a three-teamer.
You just thank your lucky stars.

We're going to take a break.

We're going to come back.

And we're going to talk about Luka.

Day two.

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That is L-O-O-M.com. All right, Kurt Goldsberry, you're sitting home on a Saturday night.
Luka Doncic is being traded to the Lakers. What's your immediate reaction? Like everybody else, this is hacked.
It's embarrassing for Shams. I can't believe that the hacker didn't come up with a realistic trade.
Right. If only the hacker had come up with a realistic trade, this would have been a masterpiece.
Yeah, put Reeves in it. Put Reeves in the 2031 first in a swap, and then I might think this happened.
Literally, that's my reaction. I think it says it all that everybody I know legitimately thought this was a hack and now are like digging into David Stern style conspiracy theories, trying to rationalize it afterwards.
So those are the two points. When it happened, this guy got hacked.
After it happened, this is a conspiracy theory. What, what, what explains this in reality? Shocked.
I mean, count me among the people, Bill, this is the biggest, craziest NBA trade of my life. Uh, this, I don't, I don't even think I was saying that last night to Riscilla Mahoney, just we're reacting in the moment.
I had some time to sit with it. And I'm like, this is definitely the craziest NBA trade.
There's never been anything like this. There's never been an inkling.
I'm going to walk you through. I came up with the six levels of massive NBA trades.
And I'm using mostly the 21st century trades as a litmus test because I was really trying to figure out, has there been a crazier trade than this? Level one, big deal, but we definitely had an inkling. So that's like Iverson to Denver, Carmelo to the Knicks, Chris Paul to the Clippers, even Kevin Love to the Cavs.
Big deal, but we knew we had a feeling and it wasn't like massive and we weren't going to be telling our grandkids where we heard the news, Kyrie to the Boston, et cetera, et cetera. Level two, big deal, immediately one-sided then stupid.
So it's a trade. You maybe add an inkling, but then you see and you're like, wait, what? That's all they got.
So that's like Vince Carter to the Jersey, T-Mac to the Rockets, Joe Johnson, the Hawks, Harden to Houston's a great one for this. Gobert to the T-Wolves are like, wait, what? What happened? That's level two.
Level three is the big deal out of nowhere that you feel like something tilted.

That's level two. Level three is the big deal out of nowhere that you feel like

something tilted. That's

Jason Kidd for Stephon Marbury

in 2001. It's like, whoa.

Those guys might be the two best

point guards in the league. They just traded them for each

other. Gasol to the Lakers.

Darren Williams

to Utah, where

he had a feeling it wasn't going great there, and all of a sudden they're trading him for Derek Favors in two firsts, and it to Utah, where he had a feeling wasn't going great there.

And all of a sudden they're trading him for Derek Favors and two firsts.

And it was like, whoa.

But then we move into this next level, level four, the mega deal, but we knew something

was coming.

So that's like Shaq to Miami.

That's KG to the Celtics.

That's Anthony Davis to the Lakers.

Harden to the Nets.

Durant to the Suns.

We had a feeling. We knew, but it was still like, holy shit, that's a monster trade.
Then you go to level five, the mega deal out of nowhere. This is where it gets pretty rare.
That's Paul George to the Clippers. We know Kawhi's picking back and forth between Lakers, Clippers the whole week.
We don't see the Paul George piece. Now, all of a sudden, they're on the same team.
They're trading Shea, Jilgis, Alexander, Danilo Gallinari, four first, two swaps, and another protected pick. And we're just like, what happened? And I think that was the biggest shocking trade, at least this century, until we get to level six last night.
What the fuck just happened? Did the reporter get hacked? It's never happened before. This is the first did the reporter get hacked mega trade.
So you go backwards to the seventies, eighties, like will to the Lakers cream to the Lakers date. Every time we had a feeling, maybe somebody that a guy was available, but you talked to a bunch of NBA teams.
Had you heard Luca was available? It was even conceivable. Hell no.
Okay. Hell no.
I talked to people who were involved with this deal. I had no idea this was possible.
And I think you had them fourth in the trade value. Yeah.
Generally, when anybody's, I would like to do a historical analysis of what's the highest person on that list that's ever been moved. Like, well, so a good way to, somebody sent this to me that Bob McAdoo is the only real comparison we can ever do.
Who was around the same age range. He'd won the MVP twice.
All-NBA guy. And it's the only one that's even in the ballpark from a talent resume standpoint already.
But in that case, they were trying to save money and they basically sold them to the Knicks. What about Kareem out of Milwaukee?

Like that reminds me of this too.

Yeah, or Moses Malone.

But we knew those guys were getting traded.

Those guys were like, trade me or I'm going to do Frazier.

Moses Malone signed with Philly and they had to then come up with a deal.

So that's like the caliber of dudes.

Davis is another one in 2019 with the Lakers.

We knew that though, right? Not like this where the guy didn't know he was getting traded. This has never happened.
Yeah. Nobody knew that this dude was on the market, which to me is the legacy of this deal.
And it actually helps explain it now, 24 hours later to me, is that the Dallas Mavericks valued Anthony Davis as much as Luka Doncic. Say what you want about that assessment, but that is the only justification or rationalization that explains how we got here right now, Bill, because they only called one team, which you and Rosillo and Mahoney did a great job of calling out that part of this.
They really were zeroed in on getting Anthony Davis to their team. And I disagree with that assessment.
I think most people around the NBA wildly disagree with the assessment, but that is the only explanation of how we got here today. that the Nico Harrison looked at Anthony Davis and says, I want that as much as I want Luka Doncic.
Yeah, and people I've talked to, reading stuff, hearing stuff, it really seems like this starts in the finals last year when Boston kicks their ass and Luka's defense is a problem And I think kid was just like, we were never going to win the title unless this guy takes a little more seriously on the other end and gets into better shape. Right.
That's, so that's something they're talking about internally all the time comes into this season, still not an awesome shape, gets hurt, gets hurt again. And, um, you have Polinka and Nico Harrison who had this whole crazy long relationship together.
Like these were two, two of the guys that Kobe was the closest to. So they've known each other like from the height of the Kobe era.
And, uh, they just start talking and the reporting all said they started talking in the beginning of January and they've been talking ever since.

And I think it's a masterful job by Polinka to convince Nico not to shop him.

Now, if you're going to be fair to Nico,

they're going to trade Luca.

They know what they wanted.

They wanted a big guy.

There's no other big guy

that they could have traded him for, right?

So if you're going to make calls,

you're calling Milwaukee for Giannis

and you're calling Boston for Tatum. So when people talk about how do you not shop them around, they feel like, like Nico said in the press conference, whether you agree with it or not, they felt like they have a team that has a chance to win the title.
They wanted to add somebody who could help them win the title this year. So that rules out basically everyone in the league and brings you to Tatum and Giannis.
And they didn't call

Boston. They didn't call Milwaukee.

Now, if they called Milwaukee and said,

do you have any interest in trading for Giannis?

And Milwaukee, or do

you have any interest in trading Giannis? And Milwaukee said,

I mean, the only

way we'd ever even consider doing that is

if Luka was on the table and then Nico goes,

well, hold on.

What are you thinking? And then you kind of stumble into it, but they didn't make the calls. It's staggering.
That remains and will always be the staggering part of this transaction. And I think when the dust settles, that's the biggest question that Nico Harrison's going to have to answer to for years is sure.
You reach the conclusion internally. Again, I'm not justifying this, but they reached the conclusion internally that we do not want to pay this person $350 million.
We don't think his calf is going to hold up. We don't think his body's going to hold up.
We don't think his nutrition is good, whatever. They reached the conclusion that they're out.
That's part one. And Nico said, we felt like we were heading toward a tumultuous summer that we couldn't avoid so we're trying to get out of this now which leads me to believe they maybe they were split internally and paying him or the ownership is involved and i had one executive experience me like this the why is pretty clear they didn't want to be in the business of l Doncic long-term.
They think he's more like Joel Embiid than the rest of us. They think that this is a big long-term risk and they don't want that Joel Embiid albatross contract hanging over their cap table for the next, whatever, five, six years.
But you reach that point, and I think Ryan did a great job with this too. Okay, now what is the process? The how is the problem.
We can disagree with the why, but the how they executed this is the problem. You have a generational trade asset.
You have to canvas the league. You have to cast a wide net.
You have to get two or three parties negotiating against each other to get the best deal. You're trading Herschel Walker, dude.
You got to get the dynasty coming back to Dallas. You got to get all those offensive linemen, all those Vikings picks for those of us of a certain age.
And they didn't do that, dude. That's going to be the thing he has to answer to for the next few years.
I was talking to my wife about it last night after we did the podcast. And she was just like, I don't understand why they traded Luca.
Wasn't he in the finals? Like, she knows nothing. She doesn't care.
And I was like, yeah, they just, you know, they just felt like, I guess they didn't want to pay him. I still don't know anything.
And she goes well did they did they try to trade him to other teams was that the best trade and I was like no they just had one team and she's like that's weird right like she she was just like trying I was trying to explain it to her like she was like a little kid in elementary school it's like yeah usually usually when you're shopping a guy you tell the other teams and then one of the funniest things I got this morning was one of my friends was like,

Dallas is the team in your fantasy league that they just trade and you fucking lose your mind.

And everyone's on email threads arguing about it because they can't believe they wasn't shopped.

And that's basically what Dallas did here.

A couple of kickers, though, with this, that makes me wonder if maybe the general public has completely overrated the talent in this trade or these two teams are just insane. Dallas put in a second round pick.
So we're sitting there going, how is Max Christie in this trade instead of Austin Reeves? How is their 2031 first not in there? Why wasn't there like three years of swaps? And as Rusilla made the joke last night, which was great about Poinca like holding firm on the 31 pick, like the deal was going to go away. It was even crazier than that.
He's like, not on my own firm, give me a second round pick. And he got it.
So that's how bad the Mavs, A, wanted to get rid of Luka, I guess, and B,

wanted Anthony Davis. Yeah.
And there's a week-long process. One of my sources inside the Lakers was indicating that the deal was bigger.
And I think you guys were literally joking about this last night, that there were two firsts and there was Dalton Connect. And the deal got whittled down because I think Rob Palenka was able to convince the Dallas Mavericks that Luka is a lot of risk.
You guys are right for trying to look at this this way because this guy, oh, he's drinking or whatever, his weight problem, whatever it is. So they were able to convince it.
This is a weeks-long process.

That's another thing that came out today.

This wasn't...

This was a...

And Dallas started...

Almost three and a half weeks.

Dallas started it, dude.

This fell in Rob Palenka's lap.

And then he was able to reduce

the outward Lakers assets to such... Dude, Mikael Bridges commanded five first-round picks.
Well, so the thing with Palenka, I've just been marveling at... He's like a character out of Succession or something.
He has over and over again figured out how to blame whoever was coaching the Lakers for whatever was wrong with them over any of his moves right the westbrook trade like you could point all these different things at point but he always survives and then he somehow jedi mind tricks nico harrison with this davis thing and talks to him for three weeks convinces him not to shop him anywhere else no no if you're gonna trade luca like it has to be for davis who else in the league would it be You have to get an all defensive center back. Like you're going to shop them anywhere else.
No, no. If you're going to trade Luca, like it has to be for Davis.
Who else in the league would it be? You have to get an all defensive center back. Like you're going to shop them like Milwaukee.
Luca's not going to go to Milwaukee. Like Milwaukee's not going to trade Giannis for him because Luca's never going to sign there.
They know that Boston loves Tatum. They're not turning Tatum into Luca.
They love Tatum. That's their guy.
Like, so now it's like Bam Adebayo. Like you can't trade Luca for Bam Adebayo.
It's got to be Anthony Davis. So he's just kind of tilting it so that Nico's like, yeah, you're right.
I guess you guys are the only suitor. And it worked.
The other thing is they think this team is going to win. They think that the Kyrie, Klay Thompson, Anthony Davis trio is a big three.
They think that. Well, that's stupid.
They can't think that. They think they're going to win.
Otherwise, they wouldn't have done it. But I think the only way, again, that you can explain why they would only call the Lakers is they wanted Anthony Davis.
They started off this process, hey, we think we can get Anthony Davis. And Nico has this pre-existing relationship with Anthony Davis.
And Jason Kidd has this pre-existing relationship with Anthony Davis in the Lakers. And again, I don't agree with these things, but I, like everybody, spent the whole day trying to understand how this could have gone and how they only called one organization.
And it's almost like- They want a tough defensive team, right? So they're thinking we can run our offense through Kyrie and AD. We have a bunch of shooters and tough defenders and we could actually hang in the West in a real way if those two guys are healthy.
They might not necessarily be wrong, but it doesn't mean they should have traded Luka Dacic. I think they're going to be pretty good this year.
I'm not going to say this is a disaster. No, they're going to have real size with the two centers and Davis.
They have wings that can play D. They have Kyrie, who's a crunch time guy.
This is a pretty big offensive burden for him. But I can see how you talk to yourself into this, except for the part that you're giving up a generational talent who's having one of the first seven years of his career.
There's only four other guys in the history of the league.

Wilt, LeBron, who are the other two?

Wilt, LeBron, Kareem.

No, there's one other one.

But anyway, that are on this.

Oh, Oscar Robertson.

That have the first seven years that Luka had

in the history of the league.

We're talking almost 80 years.

Yeah, Stephen Curry hasn't made first team All-NBA as much as as Luca has. It's crazy.
Stephen Curry took him three years to even

become Stephen Curry, right? Luca immediately and he made Western finals and the finals.

So I'm going to run through a couple of things I'm going to throw at you.

Just from, from, uh, reading, listening, talking to people, one, a couple of the narratives that

didn't pass the sniff test for me or just things that I didn't hate yesterday. I want to, the first

So Just from reading, listening, talking to people, a couple of the narratives that didn't pass the sniff test for me are just things that I didn't hate yesterday that I wanted to.

The first one, the AD and LeBron and Clutch being blindsided by this trade,

having no idea that it was in the works,

finding out like we all did after the fact.

As you know, I'm a conspiracy guy. I'm a sniff test guy.
This does not pass the sniff test for me for this reason. Buried in all of this stuff was Anthony Davis waived his trade kicker to go to Dallas.
And he did it pretty quickly. So you have Anthony Davis blindsided by the trade, who loves Los Angeles, who's in his little clutch triangle with LeBron and Rich Paul, and out of nowhere, gets traded to Dallas, and he's so upset about it that he decides to forego $5.9 million and waive his trade kicker, money he's entitled to.
And he's like, I'm good. Yeah.
Yeah. Forget it.
I want to help you guys out. It just doesn't pass the sniff test for me.
LeBron James, same thing. LeBron, you would think he would take this so personally.
You trade my guy. This is my hand pointed sidekick.
You got to trade me now. Quietly today.
It's like, nah, he's going to be here after the trade deadline. And then Clutch, same thing.
Shams has a relationship with Clutch. Shams gets the scoop.
I just think they knew before the trade and I wouldn't bet my

life on it, but that would be my bet. Yeah.
I think the idea that this traveled in silence

the whole time. It's absurd.
It's a lot. It's absurd.
Now that we know it's been since January

7th, it's absurd. That's right.
That's what I learned today, too, is that this was a month-long process. And the idea that this was as quiet, it is hard to believe, particularly the way that Clutch and LeBron have inserted themselves into the Lakers basketball operations.
And I agree with you. The idea that Anthony was so quick to waive that thing, that's a that seems kind of fired up to go to Dallas, which this is why I wanted to do a second day pod raises a bunch of questions for me.
It's like, you seem pretty pumped about this. You're, you're not sticking them with the trade kicker and you seem like you like where you're going

and you have this long relationship with Nico Harrison

and you're getting away from the Lakers

and maybe you feel like you're selling high

in your Laker experience

you won a title, LeBron's 40 years old

eh, new challenge

Dallas, maybe I'll be the guy there in Texas

just seems like

if he was pissed about it

you're making them pay the 5.9

and he didn't

yeah, that's a great point

it's also a big compliment

I'm not. just seems like if he was pissed about it, you're making them pay the 5.9 and he didn't.

Yeah, that's a great point.

It's also a big compliment, I think,

when he all said this last night that he is the piece for

Luka Doncic and I think that's almost

flattering to a point.

That they had to throw in a second round pick

from Dallas' side just to get this done.

And there's some intel that

Anthony was not in love with playing in Los Angeles the way they were playing basketball. I think it all comes together, that he might not have been as satisfied there as he was letting on.
And then if LeBron was truly blindsided by this, just from his, let's say, some passive-aggressive behavior over the years from him with roster moves and lack of moves. And he just seems pretty fine with the events, at least so far.
It's 630 now on a Sunday night. We haven't seen him really like leak anything, say anything, and just seems okay because he's smart because he gets to play Luka Doncic.
And now there's a scenario where, hey, Lucauka, let me teach you some diet stuff. Hey, Luka, this is called a VersaClimber.
What do you think of this thing? Hey, Luka, I see you're weighing about 265 right now. Do you realize if you weigh 250, this, this, this, this, this will happen? Hey, Luka, here's why you keep hurting your calf.
You're not doing like, Luka basically inherits the greatest personal trainer

in the history of the league.

LeBron doesn't get hurt.

Ever tried red wine instead of these,

you know, the Czech pilsners

that you've been crushing over the last 10 years?

Right.

I think that's true.

This is the scary thing of the tradesmen.

This is what my dad said today.

He's like, I don't want Luka and the Lakers

for a million reasons,

but what if he figures it out?

What if he's in better shape? What happens then? Well, dude, and he is, and I think a lot of us feel this way. This is, they poke the bear and that's not a fat guy.
Yeah. I meant to say the FU potential now we have.
Huge FU potential, Bill. Huge.
This guy, he talks like, when I first got into Luca, when he would run his mouth against dudes like Pat Beverly and stuff, and he was a kid and he would just give it right back. And sometimes more than he was getting.
Uh, and I was like, this guy is a competitor. Uh, and now I, yeah, you guys did say this yesterday, but it's true.
They poured a bunch of gas on this dude's fire. And if he, if he channel it the way that I think and a lot of Mavs fans think right now, look out, dude, because you're right.
He can come in in like LeBron 2012 mode, you know, after that Mavs series and just be like, all right, I'm here and I'm mad and I can't wait for February 25th to play the Dallas Mavericks in Dallas. I'm going to get in the craziest shape of my life.
I remember for page two in 2004, when Shaq got traded, I wrote a column called The Vengeance Scale. And I ranked the vengeance scale from zero to a hundred because I thought like, I was like Shaq, at least for the next couple of years, is going to get in shape and dedicate his life to trying to win a title and stick this up the Lakers' ass.
And he eventually did. Wade got hurt in 05.
He did in 06. I think Luka, the competitive, he's both like crazy competitive, but also frustratingly competitive because if he was that competitive, he would be in better shape.
But I think he's competitive enough that when somebody trades you, you're just going to be pissed when you're playing for the Lakers in LA and this incredible franchise and you get, you know, bathed in love from all that you see the 77 jerseys, all that stuff. Um, it has a chance to really ignite them.
And that would be the thing. I mean, I feel so bad for the Mavs fans.
I've talked to a couple of them today. Like they're just so devastated.
They just can't believe this. And if I'm Mavs in the worst part of this trade is what happens if we lose in round two and Luca just goes on a heater for the next like eight years.
And we're like, we fucking lost Jalen Brunson and Luca Donchich. And I was on a thread with some Red Sox fans.
We were arguing about the Mookie Betts trade versus the Luka trade. And Luka, I think, is a more important asset because there's four untradable NNBA guys every year.
In baseball, there's 25 guys on a team. But Mookie was our Luka, basically.
Yeah. And we'd actually won a title with him.
And he really was a unique, amazing top five, top A player. And we got, we didn't get Anthony Davis for him.
I'll just tell you that we got, we got Connor Wong and Jeter Downs and Alex Verdigo. And we got rid of David Price's contract.
That was a trade. And it made me not like baseball.
Like I, I don't really watch the Red Sox in the same way anymore. So for the Mavs fans, like I know some Mavs fans, like Jason Gallagher,

who we used to work with,

he's talking about his son.

It's like, I'm following Luka to the Lakers.

It's like a lifelong Mavs fan.

It's like, now I am a Laker fan.

That whole fucked up side of this is crazy.

No, it's totally true.

So many fans,

like when Mbappe goes from PSG to Real Madrid, they're just I'm going to Real Madrid I'm a Real Madrid fan now I guess this is a generational talent who is going to bring fans like Jason Gallagher's son with him that's not going to be a unique story and that message poor Gallagher sorry uh but yeah dude that I went to the Mavs subreddit today and it was like sons of Sam Horn in October 2003 it was so bad they were going they were going to the arena with like props somebody brought a coffin like they were they were having like a protest somebody brought a croft like croft of just just visceral pain dude well and there's also some incredible conspiracy stuff already i mean god only knows what's true half true 10 true but people thinking what are your favorite conspiracy no my favorite i i love this one that the owners have always wanted the vegas and their eventual goal is to basically flip franchises, move Dallas to Vegas so they can have their old casino thing. The expansion team that was going to go in Vegas would be the Dallas team.
They'd pay whatever. And the first way to do this was to be basically to torpedo the Mavericks franchise relationship with their fans by trading Luka Doncic.
And it's like, I have no notes. That's one of the best conspiracy theories I've ever heard.
And I'm in Texas right now. One more layer to that one is like gambling in Texas may or may not happen, right? Probably not happening.
So yeah, like this family made, for those who don't know, this family made its money in Vegas. Like, yeah, they're a casino family.
Yeah. So that's a good one.
There's definitely some other ones about just trying to get ratings up and the Lakers back. But yeah, there's a lot of conspiracy.
How do we help the Lakers? That's what my dad said. I mean, the father of conspiracy Bill, conspiracy conspiracy bill senior was like, this just feels like the Lakers were about to die and they had to put another star in their team.
Cause my dad was like, how does this team keep pulling this off? Like all the Celtic fans were just getting pissed about this today. Cause this is the team we hate the most.
And it's just like, this team just steps in shit and they're born on third base in the ultimate way. They fuck up the entire 2010s, the entire 2010s.
Even like they take Lonzo Ball over Tatum. Like you can point to a million things and it all leads to LeBron being like, yeah, you know what? I really want to live in LA.
And they just miraculously land LeBron. Then they have this clutch alliance where we're putting Anthony Davis on the

Lakers. Nobody else trade for him.
The Celtics

are like, here are all these picks and we'll

trade you Jalen Brown. They're like, nope.

He's got to go to the Lakers. So now they get Davis

and LeBron together and then

they get six years out of Davis and turn him into

Luka Doncic, the best generational

offensive prospect

slash star slash

heading into his prime guy since LeBron.

Ah!

And they got, yeah, you guys

Thank you. operational offensive prospect slash star slash heading into his prime guy since LeBron.
And they got, yeah, and you guys did a little of this yesterday, but they got Shaq and they got Pau Gasol exactly when they needed him. And like, yeah, what we said in San Antonio is like, there's three teams, there's three ways to build an NBA team, the trade, free agency, and draft.
And the Lakers really have access to all three of those levers in a way that no other team does, specifically trades and free agency. And this is just another example of that.
And the Spurs or the Grizzlies or the Thunder will never get a trade for somebody like Luka Doncic or a free agency play like that. So they do start on third base.
That's exactly right. And this is the updated version of them getting Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 50 years ago.
It's just wild, but it is kind of cool in that sense as an NBA historian that it falls in line with this, but as Celtics fans, not exactly thrilled with that historic parallel, I guess. Yeah, you could do an all-time nine-man rotation of NBA 75 guys that they've traded for or signed in for AGC.
Wilt, Kareem, Shaq, and Kobe, because they traded for Kobe. Gasol, Dwight, LeBron, AD, Luka.
Those guys are all top 75 guys that they acquired. Yeah, and pick any other NBA team and say, who's the best player your team's ever traded for? Right.
For us, the Celtics would be Robert Parrish and KG, I think would be the two best. And that's in 80 years.
Unless you count the Bill Russell trade, because they flip draft picks. But yeah, it's really rare.
The Bucs, or even the Sixers, or the Magic. These kinds of players don't just show up on your doorstep.

Yeah, and then the flip side for the Mavs,

this is, I mentioned the Mookie Betts trade.

This is Edmonton trading Gretzky in 1988,

which we did a 30 for 30.

That was actually the first 30 for 30 ever.

But Gretzky had already won titles for them.

The whole point is Luka had not won the title for them yet.

He had the promise of, oh my God, we have this guy for the next 20 years.

Then we have the other weird piece

Thank you. for them.
The whole point is Luka had not won the title for them yet. He had the promise of, oh my God, we have this guy for the next 20 years.
Then we have the other weird piece, about the Lakers, who are playing well. They still have to do the trade, but the irony of them doing the trade right now was they had just started to look like a contender and they had an identity and they were big and physical and they'd figured out some of the spacing.

Christie and Finney Smith were both playing well at wings.

So they finally had confident wings they could put out there.

So that was part of the trade last night

was the timing of it was like,

I just watched this team and they look really good.

And now they just made the most shocking trade

in the history of the league.

So a defense of the Luka trade from Dallas aside, I just want to do this as a thought exercise. If you're trying to zag, what's the defense? If you're like, you know what? Nico Harrison has figured this out and he's going to fucking show you that this trade was really smart.
What's the defense? The defense is that Luka Doncic is the next Joel Embiid. He is a person whose body isn't going to hold up to these crazy pace and space games that happen 82 times a year, plus playoffs.
Like Luka played 100 games last year. He's repeatedly strained his calf.
We think there's an Achilles tear risk here. We think there's a weight.
We think the lower body's going to go or the back's going to go and we're going to be on the hook for that Joel Embiid equivalent. And we don't want to do it.
And this is the last trade deadline opportunity we have to turn him into something. I don't take that stance, but that's the case.
And I think that's what they saw. Moreover, I thought specifically they wanted Anthony Davis, and I think they think they're a better team with Anthony Davis than with Luka Doncic.
That's the only case. Alright, I'll add to the defense.
Anthony Davis, anchored a finals team in 2020 that won it all. Defense wins championships.
No defense stars don't win titles. Go find me one.
Seen a lot of no defense superstars take teams to round three, maybe even round four, but they don't win. How do we know he was signing here in 2026? We don't know.
Got to get out early. The way to do this is to do it now.
And we feel like we can get a lot of value. And then AD was the only guy we wanted.
Luka was never going to Milwaukee. Boston went to Tatum.
Bam's not good enough. KD's too old.
Edwards makes no sense for either side. Jalen Brunson, no.

So where are we shopping him to?

We're going to trade him for a bunch of picks?

Like, we didn't want to do that.

We feel like our team's good.

I think that's the defense, and it's moronic.

It's, yeah, we'll see.

I mean, I will leave a sliver, a sliver of hope for the Mavs fans that they could be hoisting up Larry O'Brien in the next year or two. I don't think that's going to happen.
They're so mad they'd probably boo the finals trophy ceremony. Throwing their Luka Doncic jerseys at it.
Fuck you! It's almost like Ohio State football. They won the national title and they're still pissed off that they lost that Michigan game right it's a lot but we're still mad yeah like they could literally boo the the parade uh but yeah I don't see it I think they really believe that Anthony Davis and I think this is Nico Harrison believing that Anthony Davis can anchor a top defense in the nba and that with kyrie and clay and their role players uh that they can they can compete for a title that's the they still need one more trade i think they need a little somebody a little more uh he checky who can create their own shot and they still have time to do it because they have you know he's from dallas who j.
Is he from Dallas or Houston? Where's that from? I forget. Saruti just texted us that the Warriors' Jimmy Butler trade talks have finally ended because the Warriors did not want to commit to an extension.
And Jimmy Butler said, this is, who reported this, Saruti? It was... Wendy.
Oh, Wendy reported. Yeah.
So there you go.

Yeah, I was thinking about the one thing we didn't talk about yesterday because we were

so dumbfounded by the trade.

Are there moves for

the Lakers

this year to become an interesting playoff team?

Because I'm positive if LeBron

is playing like he did last night and he can just

stay somewhat

healthy and fresh for a couple rounds,

that's not a team I want to see in round one or round two.

Then Luka with him

Thank you. playing like he did last night and he can just stay somewhat healthy and fresh for a couple rounds.
That's not a team I want to see in round one or round two. Then Luka with him.
And you just have these two freaky physical six foot eight, six foot nine guys who don't really have a position who can, who both have crazy hoops IQs. And then if you can put the right team around them, which they're inching closer to having, except they don't have any rim protection at all.
And could they go get Nick Claxton was a rumor today. Could they take a fly on Robert Williams? Could they get Clint Capella? Would the Hawks want to trade a Kongu for the 2031 pick? Would you put Austin Reeves on the table? What could you get for him? Austin Reeves is expendable now.
Why do you need Austin Reeves? Do you have Luka Doncic? House and I were talking about this today. You need him as your six-man injury protection for one of those two guys.
Somebody who's 25 minutes a game. You always have two...
Obviously, the other two guys are way better offensively, but you always have two really good creators and Reeves is turning into a pretty good creator, um, at all times. So could you, could you turn like Gabe Vincent, 2031, something else into like Nick Claxton? Claxton and Time Lord are the names that keep coming up.
And I would guess that one of them will be on the Lakers. I would guess that.
They need a five. Obviously, they need a five.
They don't have it. You're not sold on Jackson Hayes? Christian Wood? Yeah, I'm a professor at the University of Texas, and Jackson is one of our guys.
So I'm a big Jackson Hayes guy. But no, I want a five, man.
And my question for you, Bill, is like, do you believe that this Lakers team thinks they're going to compete for a title now this year in the next five months? Here's the thing. They should think that way.
And I didn't think they had a chance to win four straight rounds with the team they had because it was putting too much. LeBron looked good against the Knicks.
He was awesome against the Knicks. To ask somebody to do that

for 10 straight weeks, to me, at age

40 is not realistic. But now

they have a guy who can, we've already

seen him single-handedly beat teams in a

series who's now going to be pissed off

trying to shove it up somebody's ass. So if I'm

the Lakers, I feel like I could

win three rounds

now. I feel like we're going

against OKC and it's like, we have LeBron and

Luka and you guys are small

and we're going to OKC and it's like we have LeBron and Luka and you guys are small and we're going to just try to bully ball you and you can do whatever, but we're still going to be a bitch to play. I can't believe I'm saying this, but they have the six best.
They were 21 to one last night. Now they're 18 to one.
Some people are betting them, which is not surprising. But if they get a rim protector and they can play LeBron and Luka with some sort of shooting point guard, Finney Smith and the rim protector at crunch time with Reeves coming off the bench and some other pieces, I wouldn't want to see him in a series.
That's where I'm at. But it hinges on that rim protector because right now they're just not built for a playoff run without rebounding and rim protection.
Well, they have the miracle of Palenka keeping Reeves and the 2031 pick. So they, I mean, they go get that.
And that almost could be part of the trade, right? Yeah. And every call I'm sure you had today that I had today is like, Oh yeah, they might trade LeBron to Golden State too, which I don't think will happen, but came up so many times today that we have to address it.
It came up last night too. Yeah, it's...
I think he stays. It's a better career move than I think he likes LA.
Right? You get traded. Your son has to come with you.
That's weird. Going to Golden State.
What ultimately are going to happen? You get to play with Curry. It's an older team.
You have a better chance of winning the title with the team you have now. If he's all about titles and an unbelievable, out-of-nowhere title run, which is still dubious, but you go through all these teams and, all right, they're playing Houston in round one.
Are you going against Luka, pissed off with LeBron as his sidekick? Right. Against like Fred Van Vliet? Like, what are we doing? Yeah, and there's still the buyout market too.
And these guys just became the biggest magnet. And that market is always irregular and unreliable.
Don't get me started. But every once in a while, there is a valuable piece on the buyout market and they will get really attractive potential buyout pieces looking at their team.
So I think they have two moves left. This is a big four-day period for the Lakers front office.
They're going to look at sending out that pick. They're going to look at sending out Austin Reeves, maybe even Rui Hashimura, to try to turn it into something at the five especially, but around these two generational playmakers.
Two generational playmakers and two guys who don't shrink in the playoffs. Yeah.
So I think they are going to try to go, but I think they're going to do a little bit cautious. I'd be surprised if the pick went.
I'll say that. I think they're going to try to do it with personnel.
Well, they're going to be in a situation where they're going to have to sign Luka this summer and LeBron's going to opt into his deal. So they basically have one chance to align all the money because they're going to get crushed next year no matter what happens, but they're the Lakers and they shouldn't care because all of a sudden they have this meal ticket of LeBron was about to end with the season tickets, the suites, everything else.
You have the Clippers in their new arena, which is awesome. Lakers playing in the shitty Staples Center.
And now it's like, now it's, now here's, come see Luka Doncic. And it's a guy that, you know, there's always been a weird thing with LeBron and the Laker fans because it's right after Kobe and there's this whole Kobe contingent.
And Luka had this awesome early relationship with Kobe and I could just see them being all in on adopting him. And also he won't be the first guy to move to California and immediately lose 20 pounds and look awesome and be tan and get in shape.
It's happened many times. This is what happens when you come out here.
Perfect place for it. Who's he going to be dating? TMZ is getting ready.
But yeah, in all all seriousness that 77 jersey in purple and gold

how long till we start

seeing the tweets

the number one selling jersey

in the NBA

it's already done

like it's

again

this is a team that just

finds money

and this is just

an updated version of that

it's a born out third base team

it's frustrating as hell

the thing with the Lakers though

they do have really good fans I gotta hand it to them and they have an expectation. It's annoying that it's always going to somehow work out, right? Even if they're in the 2010s, they kept ending up with these picks and it was a mess and Kobe's last two years weren't great.
And it was always like, we're the Lakers. This is going to work out.
The Celtics used to have that in the eighties and nineties. It's like, well, now it'll work out, and then all of a sudden it didn't work out forever, and I was always like, just wait with this Lakers thing when LeBron leaves.
Just wait, and now they end up with Luka Dacic, and he'll probably be pissed off. Yeah, because it felt like they were heading towards an era where they were going to have a 34-year-old Anthony Davis as their focal point.

Yeah.

Austin Reeves and Max Christie.

And now they're going to have a 27-year-old Luka Doncic just angry at the world.

And hopefully, you know, they are able to extend him.

And I do want to say that.

And one of the sort of main points here is like,

there's no guarantee he's going to sign that extension in Los Angeles. Yeah.
What if Miami is like batting their eyelashes at him? What if San Antonio? Like what if Oklahoma city? Like there, there are, there are teams that are going to let him know that they really want him to play there. Oh, come on.
The NBA isn't allowed to do that. Kirk teams aren't allowed to talk to players from other teams.
That doesn't happen. Oh God.
But it's like, so I think that that's something I haven't heard talked about enough is there is a chance that he will not want to be there. I think it's a small chance.
I think he's now at the New York Yankees and he is sort of that A-Rod character who's going to settle into that sort of prestigious role.

Dude, people don't leave the Lakers.

Once you're here and you're on the Lakers and they're spending money and you're in the sunshine, you don't.

Guys have not left the Lakers.

Great players, they stay.

That's what happens.

All right, let me ask the sports guy this.

I think he stays.

Let me ask you this.

How far do the Lakers go this year?

Whew. let me ask you this how far do the Lakers go this year I feel like I'm going to throw it right now they're a 5 seed

they are tied with Denver in losses

for the 4 seed

and they're only 3 back from Memphis

I think they have to get in the top half

of that top 4

so they can have at least one home series. I'm just, I'm all in on Luka.
I completely believe in him as a terrifying offensive force. And I think he needed a kick in the ass like this.
I'm all in on him. Like, I feel like they can make the finals.
I don't think it's crazy. We watched him do it last year and he owns Oklahoma city.
That's right. That's what I was just going to say.
That's the one team they have to beat. And he plays great against them.
And even this year, he had a good game against them. But, uh, you know, and then you take a team like Denver, how do you beat a team like Denver, um, with two really gifted offensive players, you know, and then there's the LeBron piece too.
This is like an amazing out of nowhere life raft for a chance to get another title and rewrite some of his shit. And dude, I think his odometer benefits from this.
I think off-ball LeBron, he lasts a little bit longer. He's a little more durable than on-ball LeBron.

And I think just him setting screens is a crazy concept.

Right, them running pick and rolls, right?

Yeah, he's the new Carl Malone.

He just becomes Carl Malone for them.

Well, that was the thing last night in the Knicks game.

Physically, he was so impactful

compared to everyone on the Knicks.

It just didn't feel like they had a big enough athlete

to handle him.

And LeBron hasn't felt like that in a while.

It really feels like it had a big enough athlete to handle him. And LeBron hasn't felt like that in a while.
It really feels like maybe he knew that Luca trade was coming. And that's why he was playing with a little, a little pep in a step.
But I just think those guys are going to be really hard to play. There's a flip side of this where those two are a disaster on defense.
You can't play the two of them with Reeves together. JJ, who is now realizing the weight of, holy shit, I took this Lakers job and now we have Luka Doncic.
He's like, his hair's fucking falling out by April. They aren't able to get the right rim protector.
I would say it's 65-35 for me that they could actually be an incredibly dangerous playoff team versus... but I was, I was surprised with the people I talked to today.
Like people kind of weren't seeing the immediate title picture. I think Luca, as long as he's healthy, he has to be, it's like Jokic.
It's like when Denver looked like shit in the start of the season and we were all worried about them. It's like, well, they still have Jokic.
Like I'm not counting them out yet. Yeah, I mean, Oklahoma City gets my respect.

They deserve it.

Me too.

Beyond that,

Houston,

who I adore,

Memphis,

I love.

I just think they're both too young,

really.

And if you're telling me

I have Luka and LeBron

against either of those two teams,

there's a case

for those Lakers

to just,

to get them

with wisdom.

Well, I would say the Clippers from a defensive roster standpoint are actually built the best to kind of battle this team, which means maybe we'll finally get the Clippers Lakers series. We've been waiting for it forever, but yeah, I just think in a series, it's going to be really hard to match baskets with them.
If Luke is right. And I don't know why he wouldn't be right.
He was averaging 28 a game, by the way. I know he's having his worst statistical year, but yeah, this is an amazing time of events.
By the way, we put it on wax, your season tickets for the Clippers. We put it on wax like three weeks ago that we was like, let's not forget the Los Angeles Clippers.
Then Kawhi comes back and they've looked like the best team in the NBA at times. Wow, until today.
What happened today? Or yesterday. No, didn't they lose to Toronto? Oh yeah, that's right.
They lost to Toronto. But yeah, like over the last two months, or I should say January, just look it up.
Their indicators scream we're good. And their defense has been good all year.
And as we said that last time. No foul today for them, though.
Yeah. Yeah, Clippers versus Lakers.
We could see it. Amazing trade.
Congrats to the Spurs for getting Fox as well. I don't know.
We have four days until the trade deadline, Kirk. I don't know what else to expect.
We don't know where Jimmy Butler's going. There's still...

What other things should we be watching? Jimmy Butler...

The Nets have a for sale sign

up in the front yard.

I think both Claxton

and Cam Johnson are

on the move, if I had

to guess. Miami,

God only knows what they're up to.

Are Memphis and Houston going to feel like they should do something? Which would be great for the Lakers if they didn't. Is Cleveland going to tinker with anything at all? Vucevic is another one.
Can the Suns get off Nurkic's deal with a pick and try to get a better rim protector? Jeremy Grant, I think, is one to watch in Portland.

If Portland can find a taker for Jeremy Grant.

And can Milwaukee figure out anything?

Would be my other question.

Are they just stuck with the team they have?

I'm sure there's more.

Classic Bill Simmons trope

that was relevant this crazy weekend

is new owner syndrome,

which, by the way,

when the Bucks changed owners, that's when this Lillard thing happened and the Drew Holiday thing. This is like the owners remain the most underrated characters in pro sports sagas.
And this is another example. Would Mark Cuban have done this deal? I was texting somebody about that today saying Cuban's gotta be disconsolate because first of all, he trades the Mavs as the or sells the Mavs as the franchisors are going up.
He's seems like he had a feeling like he might be involved. He's not.
And then Luca, this is handpicked like if they win the title, he gets to take credit for that forever. Now they trade him.
I remember one of the, we did a Grandland feature with Mark in 2013 or 14 on, you know, at that time he was like symbolic of this new era of bad boy tech owner guy. And we talked about how the Mavs were a laughingstock before him, you know, and no disrespect to Mark Aguirre, Orlando Blackman, but they were never a great franchise.

And then he gets them to the finals two or three times.

And it sure looks like this new ownership group is taking things in a different direction.

So, yeah, he's got to be just so destroyed.

Kirk Goldsberry, great to see you.

Looking forward to your next piece.

And we'll see you in Austin in a few weeks.

Yeah, that's right.

Can't wait for that.

Big live show coming.

Hell yeah.

Good to see you.

Thank you. Looking forward to your next piece.
And we'll see you in Austin in a few weeks. Yeah, that's right.
Can't wait for that. Big live show coming.
Hell yeah. Good to see you.
Thank you. Thank you, brother.
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beer st louis missouri must be 21 plus to order alcohol alcohol available only in select markets all right we're taping this on a sunday afternoon sal you hate this it's super bowl week it's supposed to be all nfl and then the the NBA holes come flying in with the most shocking trade in NBA history.

And now you got to take a seat on the side.

I know a seat on the side.

Disgusting.

Disgusting that this is the most important sports podcast you're going to do all year. And how many minutes of NBA wholeness did you air before me?

I know.

It's a double pod this weekend.

Yeah, I know. Yeah, but you put the Luka It's a double pod this weekend.
Yeah, I know.

Yeah, but you put the Luka stuff before me, didn't you?

Yeah, you did.

You're like the second guest.

Son of a bitch.

I know.

We're still going.

We're still doing our thing.

I know.

You know, Luka just got traded.

Your league is back.

You could go back to 17-minute quarters and 100 games in the regular season.

We kept 12-minute quarters.

We're good now.

That's what happened. Silver's like, hey, man, we're thinking of changing the size of the court and how much time is in each quarter.
Can we just do something to make Boston, New York, and LA great over the next three years? Come on, Dallas. Can you step up here? Yeah, what if we put Luka and LeBron on the same team? Will anyone complain about the ratings again? The good news is, I will say,

your trade machine and trade thoughts,

which I thought

a lot of times

was nonsense,

like when week seven

when we had to do

10 minutes on

Giannis to the Nets,

and I was like,

okay, good.

But now people

should listen to you

because nothing

is too ludicrous.

There's not one trade

that could be too crazy

to pass muster here.

It really is true.

Like now, at this point, the only person I would refuse to believe got traded is Wemby. Yeah.
I think everyone else in the league, you could talk me into a trade in a ridiculous scenario involving any player. Super Bowl, Chiefs-Eagles, we've had a week to either think about it or not think about it.
There are a ton of props. Fando has amazing pages and pages of great stuff, great links.
We're going to have Ringer specials on there later. Ringer Sunday pregame is going to have some stuff.
We're good. Do you have a feel for the Super Bowl yet? And has it affected your Super Bowl props? The things that you think will happen in the game, are you steering that way already? Yes, I think so.
I think you and I will give our official picks who's going to win towards the end of the week. I did notice that I don't need two weeks.
Let's get to the part where I'm depressed already. I don't have to be depressed about being depressed.
So I don't like this extra week in between. It makes me analysis leads to paralysis.
It was like a lot of ways to determine how old we are. Like, oh, Babe Ruth won the home run title closer to when we were born than today, you know? And that sucks.
And you and I will send something. Oh, yeah.
Is that true? Three's company premiered 48 years ago. It all sucks.
But I was thinking today, I was like, we at most have 30 more Super Bowls left if we're lucky. Like, take care of myself.
You don't, you know, you, you're going to start doing cocaine. So that's a problem.
Yeah. But there's going to be a thousand more Super Bowls and we're only going to see 30.
That's disgusting to me. That really made me feel sick.
So, uh, join in in that. I think about that all the time.
How, when, when I'm finally dead, how mad I'm going to be. Not just that I'm dead, but I'm not going to know what's going to happen for the next 25 Super Bowls, NBA.
It's like, oh, shit. I am.
My lean is close game. I have two leans so far, and I'm still debating where to go with the game and probably will decide on Tuesday.
But it feels like the line is off and it feels like it's going to be a close game. Those are my two leans.
I actually think the Eagles should be favored the more I stare at this. And I don't know what the Mahomes tax is at this point, but it feels like it's a field goal.
Right. Can you say both those things? I know most people, like Raheem has a model and most people have models might even have the Eagles by three at this point and so but can you also say but I think it's going to be a close game because if you're going to lean model and Eagles and you think it's going to be a close game how dare you go against Mahomes and it's right then the Chiefs should win the fourth game of a close game I guess more like I think it's going to be a blowout.
Like, I don't think either of these teams is blowing out the other team. Could one of them win by 10 points, 12? Sure.
But it feels like it's going to be a relatively close game, no blowout. And I just think the Eagles should be favored by like two and a half on a neutral field.
Yeah, maybe. They have more good players all over the place.
They have an easier way to win than the Chiefs do. And you go back and you look at, as great as the Chiefs were, the fact that they were 17-2 thrown week 18.
They're basically 17-1 to throw every week 18. But it just was harder for them week to week than when you watch this Eagles team just seems to be really crude.
I mean, the Eagles have won 15 in the last 16. Pretty easily.
So you're taking the Eagles. That's okay.
I'm leaning toward the Eagles and I'm just afraid to go against Mahomes, which is why the line is where the line is. That's why that's the whole point of this line is nobody wants to bet against the Chiefs.
I wouldn't look into the line too. By the way way, I'm going to pretend to get texts from NFL GMs during this pod.
I felt that was very effective with Russillo last night with the NBA guys. It's a great wrinkle for him.
Yeah. All right.
But I would disregard the line because I do have facts here. In the first 58 Super Bowls, only seven times as a favorite one and not covered.
It happened with the Rams, Bengals most recently. It happened twice in the last 17 years.
So take KC minus one and a half or take Philly Moneyline. You'll probably be okay, right? That's a playoff manifesto staple, especially at this time.
You're just betting who you think is going to win. Don't worry about the one.
Yeah. So that's what I'll say about that.
But I think you're right. It might be off, but I also think it doesn't matter because of that fact.
I just, well, it matters for teasers and stuff. Yeah.
So you can get Philly above seven. Pretty tasty.
Um, all right. So every year, and we've been doing this forever, I actually researched this.
We were the first people, the first two people ever to like Superbowl props. Yo, you researched it really? Yeah.
We were the first ones. I don't think a lot of people were like, nobody ever talked about Super Bowl props.
That's true. We felt like we were really going on a limb.
We did a pod, like maybe the 2007 Super Bowl, and we floated some props, and everybody in the world was like, what are these? What are these guys talking about? No, all these years later, it's a cottage industry. I don't feel like you get the credit.
There'd never been a Super Bowl prop before we did a pocket. I love it.
We willed it into a business. As far as we know.
Right. They actually didn't even exist.
Like first touchdown? What? What are these guys talking about? We started everything. You couldn't find it.
You couldn't even bet it. So eventually we forced the books to actually come up with these.
That's actually not true, obviously. And the first time we watched the Super Bowl together, when it was the first day Jimmy Kimmel was doing a show and we were in charge of monitoring the Tampa Bay Oakland game and coming up with jokes and we were in a van and you had this whole printout sheet of Super Bowl props that was like 58 pages and we're just going through and there would be silence.
He silence. Like, Hey, Simmons, what about Rich Gannon over under completions? And that was just the whole ride.
So we've loved this forever. That was a great find when you could, you had a sort of the internet wasn't what it is now.
And if you could find a PDF where you could print all the props, right. And it would just send your printer into a tizzy, you know, it'd be like 25 pages.
Yeah. Cause it'd be, because all the HTML would be off.
It would be like the margins would be too small. You'd have like these little crazy, beautiful mind notes on each page.
Now we just go to Fandle and there's all these hyperlinks. Come a long way.
Beautifully separated. It's great.
Can we start with MVP? Yeah. Because there's a couple.
Mahomes is plus 110. Barclays plus 280.
Hertz is plus 370. And the most interesting one was the field versus Mahomes is minus 150.
And we always look at this and we always like it. And, but if you think, if you think Casey is not going to win, this feels like a fun MVP back because you basically get everybody else.
Yeah. I don't know if you could parlay it with other stuff.
I didn't look at it that way. That is good.
And I was thinking, though, so we have to get in their heads, right? Is there Mahomes fatigue if the Chiefs win for MVP? Like, he didn't have a great game against Philly. No.
It was against Philly. No, the last game.
So he stayed under 200 yards, but had three touchdowns, and they had to give it to him, right? So I'm trying to write a script for how Mahomes doesn't get MVP if the Chiefs win. Is it Kelsey announces Thursday that he's going to retire after this game and he gets two touchdowns? Or Xavier Worthy, like eight for 120.
There's that like Julian Edelman type of game that's sitting there. There's like the big Kelsey game.
I don't know if any, the way they use their running backs, I don't see how either running back would be in it. Right.
So you're looking at a crazy worthy game, a crazy Kelsey game, or Mahomes if Casey wins. The funny thing is...
Mahomes plus 110 is nice. You talk about how long, how we've come such a far way, however you say that.
You can live bet the MVP, right? Remember like Kadarius Toney was like a punchline He had, like, a big game. He had a big punt return and a touchdown.
Like, oh, man, but Mahomes was still favored. I remember looking at that.
Like, you know, so there's something to look at that. I think choosing between Barkley and Hurts is really tough if you're taking the Eagles.
I might just rather take the Eagles. I did look at defensive MVP as plus 1,500.
Once the game gets to the 40s, you're kind of cooked. But 9 out of 57 defensive players have won.
And so that's like 1 out of 6 or 1 out of 7. And you're getting 15 to 1.
It's not bad. The problem with taking the field versus Mahomes, I guess you get everyone on the Chiefs too with that minus 150.
So, it's a parlay of the Eagles side which you could just bet straight up for plus 110, but then you're covered on every other non-Mahomes thing. But, I think the best value is Barkley at plus 280 because I think if they win, I think he's going to be the best player in the game would be my assumption.
Like, he gashes them a couple times. He's been the best player of the playoffs.
It's a narrative that makes sense to me. And I thought the odds were pretty good.
What would the Hurts game have to be for MVP? So he's throwing two touchdowns, probably one deep one. He's probably 20 for 27 for 255.
He probably has one long run of like a 40-yard run. Maybe he's like seven for 52 running.
And he's just, it's something like that, right? I think you're right. Plus, it's Barkley's birthday, you know, on the Super Bowl.
So I don't know how much that factors in. Yeah, turns 28.
Is that what it is? And plus, if it's plus 280 and he turns 28, am I wrong to say he's 28? That's pretty good numbers. numbers but I think you're right I don't know if Hurts getting the touchdowns on the tush push if he gets like three of those and puts up good yards if that's going to put him over the top but it's it's been Barkley's year I think that's that's probably the case for Barkley yeah plus 280 is still good if it's close to three the Barkley bets that jumped out so I've never monitored this, but there was a 25 plus rushing yards each quarter for plus 750.
Yeah. That I've never bet on and I have no idea if that's a good bet or not.
It seems terrible. Two touchdowns is plus 280.
So you'd have to, you'd probably have to break one of those then maybe get one around five or six. I thought the odds were pretty good.
There was one where him and Kareem Hunt, 200 plus rush yards is three to one.

So you figure if he got over like 130, 140, if he thought Hunt was going to be in the 50s, 60s, that could get there.

Three to one's nice.

But I think the one I like the most is 169 plus rushing yards, which would be a new record,

is five to one.

Thank you. is 169 plus rushing yards, which would be a new record, is 5-1.
So you just bet on that, and basically the bet is, I bet that Saquon Barkley will break the record. 169, boom, 5-1.
It's pretty good. Yeah.
I was looking at, you said Barkley 2 plus touchdowns is plus 270? So that's the same. No, it's plus 280.
Yeah. So that's the same odds as his MVP, right? Right.
So you just take that instead? That's interesting. I think I might want to take that instead.
I don't think there's a game where he's stuck in one touchdown. Do you have any other Barkley bets? Yeah.
Well, it's funny. Actually, this one was just texting me from Les Snead of the Rams GM.
He said, Kelsey, 25 or more receiving yards in each half is a good number there. So that happened already this year.
What's the odds on that? It's like plus 220 or something. Oh, man.
All right. Yeah.
So it was 307 yards over the last three Super Bowls.

So I kind of like that.

And that already hit against the Texans this year.

So.

Okay.

Yeah.

So I had the Barkley one.

The Hurt stuff.

There's an anytime TD for him for minus 115.

And that's just one tush push, right? If it's first and goal from the two, third and goal from the one. I gotta say, I was surprised that was the line.
I thought that was gonna be like minus 140. It's almost like surprising if he doesn't get one.
That one jumped out to you? Yeah, we go crazy about it on the Ringer pregame show. And I don't know if there's like a million props, so they'll throw in one you can win on automatically there.
But it's so easy there. It's minus 110 or right in there.
Ten of the last 13 games he scored a touchdown. So why should that be almost even odds? And they have a play designed for it.
So it's almost suspicious. Here's another one that goes along with it.
Shortest touchdown under minus one,

under one and a half yards.

We used to love this one. Oh, wow.

We bet that a bunch of times. Yeah.

The VIG is a little high. It's minus 172.

But we loved it before the Tush Push. And now it's

like, you know,

it was, he did

it twice, last matchup, twice

versus San Francisco.

First time, four of the five in the Super Bowl. Seven of the last nine Super Bowls have seen shortest touchdown under one and a half yards.
What are the odds on that? It's minus 172. It's not great.
So you might just want to take Hertz for the touchdown, minus 110. But for seven of the last nine Super Bowls, it didn't hit last year, so that's why I like it especially.
Now, I really like that. So Fando has, they have that anytime touchdown, like either first one or last one of the game, that they're putting a pretty big thing on that you could get in.
If it's an anytime TD bet and it ends up being the first touchdown in the game, you end up in this bonus bets pool. If it's the last touchdown of the game, same thing.
I think Kurtz was my favorite anytime touchdown bet. I bet that goes up.
I think that's going to be like minus 135 by game time. Two other things with him.
Longest run was 11.5 yards. It feels like every game they have that one run where it's like the delayed QB draw and he's running to the right or the left and he just goes for like 30 yards.
And I can't believe that wouldn't happen in this game once. So 11 and a half I really liked.
And then longest pass of the game for him, 32 and a half yards. So, and this ties into some,

some AJ Brown stats too.

But when you look at the Chiefs,

so they gave up against Buffalo,

they gave up a 34 yarder,

a 24 yarder and 23 yarder against Houston. They give up a 34 yarder,

a 24 yarder and 24 yarder.

So they do give up big plays when you watch

where it's like that bend,

but don't break, but you can get the, you can bust one on them. So I was give up big plays when you watch where it's like that bend, but don't break,

but you can get the,

you can bust one on them.

So I was thinking,

I like that one too.

The,

the just longest one,

33 yard pass to somebody,

AJ Brown,

Devonta Smith,

maybe it's got,

maybe Barkley on a wheel route.

Yeah.

I think they'll bust one.

Yeah.

I like that a lot.

I mean,

I love Spagnuolo's defense,

but it does,

um, you know,

it takes a minute to settle in sometimes.

I think you could break a tackle or something

in there. That's a good one.
What do you

feel about passing yards?

There's two. There's 210.5 is

the over-under for Hertz.

You could go

175 plus passing yards

for him as minus 310.

I think they're too goofy. I almost feel like the total

pass yards is a stay away for him

because we've seen games where

Thank you. 375 plus passing yards for him is minus 310.
I think they're too goofy. I almost feel like the total pass yards is a stay away for him because we've seen games where they just run the ball all the time.
We've also seen games where they vary it out. It doesn't make sense to me.
Yeah, so I think you have to script it out in your head, right? Because for a lot of these last games, he was winning with 154 yards passing. Yeah.
And then last week, he kind of surprised us.

He's like throwing on third and six.

Like, what are you doing?

You have a fourth and one play that never fails.

Why are you throwing on third and six?

Right.

And he would complete it

to Vonta Smith and A.J. Brown.

They had big games.

So what do you feel?

Do you feel like they're going to play catch up?

If you feel like they're going to have

to play catch up at some point

or that, hey, it's a Super Bowl.

Just scoring just gets out of hand.

Yeah.

And I think you go over.

But otherwise, if you're a pro Barkley on everything, I mean, his three-plus touchdowns hurts is 36-1. Barkley's three-plus touchdowns is 15-1.
So you can have fun with those, too. So out of those Barkley-Hertz, what's your favorite one? I think I like the rush yard record for plus five-to-one on Barkley just for the hell of it.
I like your two touchdownss and I like the anytime TD and the longest pass, longest run for Hertz. I feel like you at least split those.
Yeah. I also like Saquon or Hertz to have two or more touchdowns at plus one seven.
I was like banging my head against the desk trying to figure out which of these two is going to get two or more. And then Fandle has a spot for it where either they have like an an either-or guy thing.
Saquon or Hertz, two plus touchdowns, plus

170. You're almost definitely

going to be... Oh, wow.
Those are way better odds

than the Barkley plus 280.

Yeah, you're going to be one away

at halftime, right? You're just going to need

some luck to push it over the top.

Too bad you can't hedge that.

A.J. Brown, I didn't really have any stuff

I like for him. Some of the stuff

isn't out yet that usually comes

Wednesday, Thursday, like the completion bets

Thank you. Too bad you can't hedge that.
A.J. Brown, I didn't really have any stuff I liked for him.
Some of the stuff isn't out yet. That usually comes Wednesday, Thursday, like the completion bets and things like that.
Right. But A.J.
Brown just seems hit or miss to me. I'm staying away.
Any other Eagles bets that you're fired up about? I like Devontae Smith. I think they have, for Eagles, not too much.
Like 70-plus for him is plus 205. 80-plus is plus 320.
So if you've got that long play in there and you think it's going to be him, we haven't done Chiefs yet, right? No. Yeah, okay.
Yeah, so that's really it. And I also, kicker prop here, Elliott over 7.5.
Like you think to yourself, oh, this team's always going on 4th and 1. They don't have, you know, they're not going to kick.
He's gone seven straight games where he's had seven and a half. Like, you think to yourself, oh, this team's always going on fourth and one.
They don't have, you know,

they're not going to kick.

He's gone seven straight games where he's had seven and a half

or more points.

And he had nine in the Super Bowl.

So the tush push doesn't really

factor into, like,

their scoring chances

with Jake Elliott.

So what are the odds

on the seven and a half?

It's just even odds.

Yeah.

Minus 110.

Yeah, because one of the ones,

one of the bets that's not out yet

is the missed field goal thing for him

because he always feels like he has one at some point.

All right, so on the Chiefs side,

some Mahomes bets that jumped out to me,

over 29.5 rush yards,

just too many times with his legs.

If you look at the biggest games he's played,

the carries are more exciting to me. Five and a half carries.
Cause you get that 29 and a half rush yards. Yep.
You have the potential of the kneels not going to back. The carries are the carries that's minus one 40.
So there's some deals help you with the carries. Yeah.
This year he was 11 for 43 against Buffalo. He was seven for 14 against Houston, including the three nails at the end.
Uh, in 2023, nine for 66 against San Fran, six for 15 against Baltimore and six for 19 against Buffalo. So the last five times he's had six or more.
And then if you look at the Superbowls, the other Superbowls, the Philly won six for 44, the Tampa won five for

33, San Francisco nine for 29. So the only time he didn't get five and a half out of, you know, eight of the biggest games of his career and all the Super Bowls is that one Tampa game when he had five, not six.
So to me, over carries minus 140. I'm putting the juice on, I'm doing it.
I like that a lot.

Yeah, he infamously went under in yards when he had that eclipse, right? Against San Francisco in the Super Bowl when he started taking Neal's. I like, much like you do at Hertz, I like over 11.5 longest rush for Mahomes.
He's hit this in four of his last five games, averaging 13 for a longest over that stretch. So, yeah.
I mean, I think that's how you play Mahomes. Maybe do both of them.
Yeah, I'd be a little nervous about the actual yardage. So, the other one, if you want to do a yardage bet, I would recommend the 40-plus rush yards for Mahomes.
That's plus 180. And again, 43 against Buffalo, 66 against San Francisco, 44 against Philly.
So he's done it a few times. You're basically getting two to one odds, but I think he's going to need to do it in this game because Philly's the way they're going to probably play defense in him.
They have those four guys. They play everybody else back.
They fake blitz. They do all these different things.
But if you're just rushing those four, he can just slide out and over and over again

find these pockets.

Yeah, I like that.

I like him with his legs in this game.

And he's healthy, too.

We know he's healthy.

He's healthy.

He's also, there's a stat for him

or a bet for him under one,

under two and a half sacks that he takes.

He's hit this in four of his last five.

I mean, he knows when to take off.

He's just the smartest there is.

Mahomes under two and a half sacks.

That's a good one.

Because if he's over two and a half sacks,

KC's probably not winning.

Right.

So,

Kareem Hunt is somebody

that really fascinates me.

Hmm.

Anytime touchdown for him

is plus 135.

He's scored in the last four games.

Two touchdowns for him is plus 950. And the reason I mention it is because Mahomes, they don't run sneaks with him.
So unless Mahomes scores from the four-yard line or the seven, when it's around the goal line, they go with running backs. His 50-plus yards is plus 115 for rushing.
70-plus yards is plus 320. Most rushing yards in a game, if you like KC, is 7-1 for Hunt.
But I was looking back at the Houston game and then especially the Buffalo game. He was 17 for 64 in that Buffalo game.
And they threw to him once. Pacheco is 5 for 12.
I think the Eagles are big. Pacheco's like a little guy.
I actually think Hunt's going to be the guy for them in this game. And I feel like it's gravitating toward them anyway, or for that anyway, when the bigger the moment it is, it just seems like they like having Hunt out there.
So I kind of like all the Hunt bets. Yeah, he's their tush push, right? He's a wrecking ball at the one or two yard line.
So they give it to him. He goes in.
Pacheco, I would only take his receiving props. I don't think they trust him.
I don't trust him as a running back. Over four and a half longest reception for Pacheco's.
Hit 13 of the last 17. He averages like nine over that stretch.
But let me throw this by you. I'm putting a little on Mahomes for first touchdown at 18-1.
I know because he got injured, they don't do the tush-push. A little talk about play, it should be spoken about more, is when he rushed to the line of scrimmage against Buffalo and did that end around, basically that bootleg to get the first down.
I think Andy Reid wants to have an FU moment here, whether it's a Philly special or something. I think I could see him wanting Mahomes to score from the one.
I don't know if it's early on

or late in the game, but

you might get a

sneak. I mean, I don't know why.

Is he more likely to get injured?

I know he got injured on the sneak

years ago, but

they've just never tried it since he got hurt.

Along those lines, there

was a Chiefs prop I liked. It was

over four and a half guys that rushed the ball. And this basically goes down to Pirine.
If Pirine runs the ball, they get to five. Because Worthy has at least one carry every game.
Hunt and Pacheco. Mahomes is going to run.
So you're basically better on Pirine. Pirine has no runs in the playoffs.
And the Chiefs always zag when they get to the Super Bowl. So I wonder, is there like the one that's like third and nine? Oh my God, it's a draw play to P.
Ryan. But I like the four and a half over.
It's going to come down to like a stupid replay because Mahomes, you might get P. Ryan, but it could be just like a little flip play where it counts as a pass.
Oh, then it seems like a, yeah, that would that would suck. Um, yeah, the, the Mahomes stuff, I love the stuff with his legs, the hunt stuff.
I think he's going to actually, you know, be pretty prominently involved. The guy that I can't get a handle on is Kelsey.
Who's, Oh, you just figure the yards for all of his props are five yards higher than they should be. Cause he said he's the most public prop bet there is.
You can do 80 plus yards for him is plus 235. Seven plus receptions is plus 135.
And then there's that 25 plus yards each half. Each half.
Two to one. To me, he's a stay away.
I didn't like how he disappeared in that last game. No N'Kobe Dean.
So maybe that's a way for him to...

But I just feel like they're going to take him out.

Yeah, I'm torn here.

Because maybe they stole enough money from us

in the AFC Championship game

because we all bet Kelsey props, right?

So maybe that's...

Okay, so maybe he comes back.

And we know...

I gave you his Super Bowl numbers, right?

Like 307, I think, in three games.

But there's another way to do this. I'm looking at Noah Gray for a long of 10 or more yards because the Eagles weren't great against the tight ends, right? What was it? Zach Ertz went for 110 catches or something last week, something crazy.
Noah Gray's 10 or more for a long. He's hitting 12 of the last 17.
What are the odds on that? I mean, it's just even up. But that could be something that...
That's a good one. They go to him a lot too.
I like that one. So you agree that Kelsey's a stay? Yeah, I think the yards is just tough with him.
I would do the first half, second half. That's it.
Game props. My favorite ones.
Both teams get a fourth down conversion as minus 124. I can't remember the last NFL game I watched where both teams didn't get a fourth down.
The Eagles seem to get at least one every game. Minus 124 seems like a layup.
I had this written down. I mean, they've gotten a fourth down conversion in every playoff game this year, both teams.
That's 5-0, and they're 70% plus on the year, and that's top three in the league. Great.
There's another one that I wouldn't recommend, but I thought was interesting just because I thought the odds would have been better for the better. Fourth down conversion in your own territory, minus 114.
Oh, wow. Like why is that like plus 160? Oh, wow.
It's so rare to go in your own territory. But if that's minus 114, then why wouldn't I just bet on both teams to get a fourth down conversion? Right.
You know. That's the way I do it.
So successful two-point conversion, a bet that I think we've done the last couple years, and the odds still haven't shifted enough on it. It's plus 175.
It feels like we have one every year. You know, I looked at it, and it felt like it, but it's not the case.
It's not true? No, it's not. Did I? I just eye-tested that? Yeah.
I mean, look at the scores. They're all like 20.
You know, I think you need a kicker probably to miss at some point and some weird shit to happen. But are you looking for four, both teams or one team? You said one team converts? It just says any successful two-point conversion is plus 175.
Yeah. All right.
So I think you need like five touchdowns.

And one of them is a two-point conversion. Maybe it's a stay away.

How about a 60-yard reception for either team?

Plus 435.

60-yard plus.

That's like one worthy down the sideline or one A.J. Brown.

I wanted the odds to be better for that.

Seems like a Super Bowl play, maybe, yeah.

And then this is one of my favorites.

Philly wins the time of possession.

Minus 128.

I went back and looked, and they've won almost every week, it feels like.

And if you think they're going to win the game,

then they're going to win the time of possession.

I had the 0-8, 7-0 points as well. Did you have Jalen Carter over three and a half tackles and assists for plus 120? I did write that down.
Yeah. Guy's a fucking maniac.
How is he not going to get four tackles and assists? Yeah. I had Dajon over, or Dajine over one and a half assists.
He's hit this in five straight and had Quinion Mitchell under a half of assists. He's five out of six if you go under there.
By the way, I did have, sorry, Kelsey. This could be a good Kelsey one.
Oh, Kelsey first catch for Kansas City, plus 230. Last two Super Bowls, he's had the first catch.
What was it? Plus 230? Plus 230. Last two Super Bowls, he had a one-yard catch and a 20-yard catch.
My favorite prop. And then we're going to take a break, and then you're going to go through all your crazy props.
All right. Chris Jones' sack.
Ooh, plus 136. So what do we know? What have we seen from the Eagles? Hertz will go back, and if it's not there, he holds it on too long.
We see guys go up the middle and get them. And it seems to happen twice a game.
That's exactly what Chris Jones was put on the earth to do is to push the line back. And every once in a while he gets to the guy.
And I just was surprised. I thought that was going to be, I don't know, even odds.
Plus 136 seems like just free value. I like that.
When they're switching in centers during the game,

that means you can't really double-team a Chris Jones.

So it's pretty good.

I'll have more to say about that in a bigger moment.

But yes, there's nothing wrong with that.

All right, so those are all mine.

We're going to take a break.

We're going to come back.

The cousin's going to rip through his favorites.

And then the most important part of the podcast,

the Gary Russell bet.

Can't wait.

Next. Here we go.
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Make it a Vrbo. All right, guys, you have the floor.
Rip through your bets, and then we'll be Gary Russell. Let's do it.
Any quarter to end 0-0 plus 3-10. This has happened 25% of the games, like 14 times.
I think for the last nine, the first quarter ended zero, zero. I love the zeros everywhere.

You can go on Fandle and buy your squares now, right?

You don't have to get stuck with two, five at some shitty Superbowl party and pretend

you have a chance and do the math all day with a girl who's selling a Girl Scout cookies.

Someone's great niece ends up winning it without paying attention anymore.

Or Daniel buying four squares and then three other squares for little kids and then just winning it. They haven't looked at the screen at once.
So I love that, that you could buy your own squares. KC 7-0 is plus 650.
Philly 7-0 first quarter is plus 650. I'd take a chance on those.
Plus 650? Yeah, for first quarter. Is there a 7-3? Of course, yeah.
7-3-0s. Mix them all up.
Have some fun. There's one for game one.
That looks great. That sounds way more fun than being in a pool.
Yeah. Yeah.
Okay. Do it up.
I would think you would like this. The triple crown bets.
These are like the anchor bets you and House were doing, right? I couldn't land on the right one for the right odds. I was looking at you so you can bet

Mahomes throws for the most pass.

Good. Barkley does the most

rushing. Easy.
Oh, I'll get nuts with

Xavier Worthy as most receiving,

and that's my threesome. Plus 650

right there. Yeah.
But if you anchor the

two, if you could be at peace with the fact that

Mahomes is going to have more passing yards,

you know, not a certainty,

but, you know, just live with it, and Barkley should be the rushing yard leader. Then put Worthy in.
Then put A.J. Brown in.
Then put Devontae Smith in. You can have, like, a nice little, you know, three or four bets there.
So you're saying just do a whole bunch of them? Yeah. Like, do your Mahomes.
I'm saying that for everything, man. We got one game left.
Pick two or three. Yeah, exactly.
And then we have Luka Doncic and the Lakers to bet on.

We're fine. Yeah, we're good.
The NBA is here to save you. Crazy bets.
Luka first Ozempic shot

plus 160 on Monday. I don't know how that happened.
Luka first gluten-free diet consultation.

He's going to be like the Jonah Hill after because we're going to be such a practical joke.

I mean- Luca first gluten-free diet consultation. He's going to be like the Jonah Hill after.
This is going to be such a practical joke. Being in a really nice sunny city does have a way of making you feel bad when you're pulling over the t-shirt and it's a little tight because you're about to walk around.
Not me, but yeah, him. Yeah, he should.
All right, we got to do the Sal special. Eagles first half, Chiefs game, plus 750.
It hit the last two years. Oh, wow.
Chiefs were trailing at halftime against the Niners. What a great one.
Yeah, and the Eagles. So plus 750.
And if you want to go the other way, Chiefs first half, Eagles game, plus 800. So a tie does not help you at half.
Eagles first half, Chiefs game, plus 800. So a tie does not help you.
Eagles first half, Chiefs game, plus 750. I mean, I could actually see that happening.
I would have thought that would have been like plus 500. Yeah, that's the one.
Great one, Cousin. Cousin South special.
Fando should fucking give that to you. They should name that officially the Cousin South special.
People should know what it is. Thank you.
Thank you. Both teams complete the first pass, minus 120.
This one I got from GM John Schneider just texted me for the Seattle Seahawks. Both teams, first pass.
First completion, both teams. This has hit four in a row.
All four, five,, one-yard passes. These guys don't screw around.
I don't know. I don't see them going for the home run ball early on, right? So this is like second and seven.
Let's throw the quick out to Noah Gray for four. Let's take Goddard really quick.
Little shovel pass. Just let's keep the clock moving.
Confidence builder. Only minus 120.
I really like that one.

Not great, but still.

Exact scores.

This is fun, too.

KC to score exactly 30 is 17 to 1.

27 is 11 to 1.

24 is 10 to 1.

Five times this year, it's hit on those three numbers. For the Eagles, 28, 27, and 26.

You got 22 to 1, 11 to 1, 23 to 1. Five times those numbers of it.
Live it up, man. Live it up.
Let's see. What else do I want to do? Oh, here's something interesting.
So they have the playoff leaders, right? Yeah. Up until like wild card.
I saw that. So who's the guy who's still winning for receivers? Deami Brown.
Yeah. 229 yards.
He's plus 360. I think he could hold on.
I think this is where he shines. I think he shines next Sunday by not being in the game.
He is, Goddard has 188. So if you don't think Goddard will have 46, you're good there.
Kelsey has 136. He would need, you know, 90 something.
And Worthy has 130. I just think plus 360 for the leader at this point might be a decent way to go.
I almost wonder if the move is to bet the over on Goddard, but then you also bet the Deami Brown bet, and you can hedge it either way. Smart.
See, you're smarter than I am with that. So playoff leaders, that's such a fun one.
I can't believe.

So Goddard's the favorite at minus 125.

Deami Brown is plus 280.

Oh, it's 280 now?

And then Worthy's 10-1.

It keeps going.

It keeps going.

Yeah.

Well, if you think that 60-yarder to Worthy's coming,

maybe that's the way to do it.

But all right.

Braden Mann, Eagles punter, under 55 and a half longest punt,

only over 55 four times all regular season.

Who knows if he'll even punt, right?

He had two against Washington.

That's a weird one.

That's a long punt.

Like, that would almost have to bounce because the guy didn't pick it up.

Yeah, I got that from Questi Adolfo Mensah, the Vikings GM.

That almost would make me nervous that that line is so high, like Fandle knows something. Oh, really? It's like a giant punt.
Yeah. It is a lot.
All right, jersey number for the first touchdown, over 15 and a half. You lose the quarterbacks, but you get almost every defensive player.
You get Barkley, you get Goddard, you get Kelsey, you get Hunt, you get Peyton Hendershot. I love it.
Over 15 and a half. Even odds for that.
Even odds? Yeah. Well, they have to have a number.
They put it right at the Kelsey line there. 15.
Yeah, but there's got to be some other player that's under 15. Devonta Smith is under 15.
No, Hertz is under both quarterbacks. Yeah.
Devonta Smith. Yes.
He's number six. AJ Brown.
Yeah. And AJ Brown's number 11.
I just like having Barkley and Kelsey for almost a Noah Gray. Yeah.
And my guy Noah Gray. All right.
Let's see. What else do we have here? They have next-gen stats.

Did you see? I don't even know

how they would do this because worthy

to register fastest is plus 285

and he is the fastest

but so

what if it's like an 8-yard catch?

Do they really just measure how fast?

He wouldn't be able to get speed probably

in that spot. So you're

basically betting that he's going to have the longest play

at plus 285.

It seems like it would have to

Thank you. He wouldn't be able to get speed probably in that spot.
So you're basically betting that he's going to have the longest play at plus 285. It seems like it would have to be a pass that's at least 25 yards, right? Or a run that's at least 25 yards so the guy can get the full head of steam.
Right. So that's why Barkley's the favorite for that one.
So he's supposed to have the longest play. It's that simple.
Yeah. I'm going to bet on Travis Kelsey.
I just feel like he's looking fast lately. It just seems like...
No, I would bet on Worthy on that on the 3-1 odds and then hope that he gets lucky. I mean, imagine Jimmy the Greek looking at this.
You could have Worthy at 18.5 miles per hour. That's minus 172 to do that.
Even the Greek would probably end up saying something racist about the bet and make it very uncomfortable. Position first touchdown.
What would you say? Which would you go with? Probably running back. Tight end would intrigue me, though, because you have Kelsey Gray and Goddard.
Tight end's plus 420. It's not bad.
That's what I was looking at there. Yeah.
Tight end, plus 420, first touchdown. I like that one.
Right, I think it's still 420. You know, we were talking about the FU moment for Reed against the Eagles.
I know he's played and ready. Any quarterback to receive a touchdown, 70 to one.
Alignment to score, 18 to one. A quarterback, either quarterback catches a pass is 21 to one.
That's pretty good. I know these things don't happen a ton, but this is it.
There's your last chance to use the trick play for the year, right? Yeah, I can't see Casey doing it with Mahomes. So it basically come down to Jalen Hurts.
And then if you're Sirianni, do you want to rip off the Philly special or play like that? And then it doesn't work. Oh, look at fucking Sirianni.
Trying to do the Philly special. But that's by the goal line, right? Yeah.
But maybe just something stupid. Maybe the 21-1 just to catch a pass could be interesting.
Right. Right.
Then you get the stupid stuff. I mean, I'm going purple Gatorade.
It's gone down already. It was plus 240.
Oh, there's been action. You could bet it on Fandle now, which is a freaking miracle.
Purple's down to two to one. It was purple the last two years.
The Chiefs won the last two years. It was purple.
Why would they screw with a good thing? Purple has a chance to catch orange as the high. Orange is five.
Purple is four of all the Super Bowls. We've got the Kobe thing.
It's been five years since Kobe's gone. You could go purple there if you're the Eagles.
Also, let's just talk about Kendrick Lamar has an Easter thing going. Maybe it's in his rider that there has to be purple Gatorade.
I don't know. Purple two to one seems like a good.
That sounds, I could probably get inside info on that. There's some sort of purple something.
There's too much action on purple. Maybe it's, maybe it's that Luca went to the Lakers.
Now it's like a whole purple week. Oh yeah.
That's the other thing. Yeah.
That, this is going to be the first. Hold on.
I'm going to throw up again. You don't like that? No, just Luka.
Going to the Lakers makes me physically ill. Yeah.
They're like, oh, my God. He's lost 25 pounds.
And LeBron has him using the Versa Climber. It's like, cool.
Nobody's going to win the title now for the next seven years. Listen, no one was more surprised than LeBron.
He found out. What was he getting? Like a bacon-wrapped hot dog in New York after the Knicks game? He had nothing to do with this at all.
Nothing. He had no idea.
That's good. No.
He had no idea. He was completely shocked.
I'd like to see Big Dom get involved in this Gatorade scandal. Doesn't this seem like something like Big Dom switches it out and some mobsters hit big on this prop? I think that's how this one's going down.
John Batiste Anthem.

This one you might not be able to find,

Fandle. 120 and a half seconds.
He did

a minute 35, which is

95 seconds at the NBA All-Star

game in 2017.

Does he show off

30 seconds worth?

How many? 120

seconds? That seems like a lot.

It's two minutes. So it's been under

two minutes in five of the last six years.

Thank you. seconds worth.
How many? 120 seconds? That seems like a lot. It's two minutes.
So it's been under two minutes in five of the last six years. I'll never forget when Louis K.
gave us the inside info and risked his job so we could win that prop. Is Louis going to be at this thing again? Did we win? Yeah, we won because he told us what was going to happen.
He was in the building. Yeah.
It's like the best inside info. I had the flip side of it though.
Nick Khan, my friend, Nick Khan, who runs WWE. Right.
We saw his son at a UFC a few weeks ago and we're talking Royal Rumble. And his son, Sonny, who's a great kid.
And it was like, Sonny, what's going to happen to the Rumble? And he goes, John Cena is going to win the Royal Rumble. And then he's going to wrestle Cody Rhodes at WrestleMania.
Oh no. And we were like, holy shit.
and then John Cena was going to win the Royal Rumble and then he's going to wrestle Cody Rhodes at WrestleMania. And we were like, holy shit.

And then John Cena was one of the last two

and then he lost.

So Sonny swerved us.

He's learning from the best.

Wow.

If you can't trust WWE inside NFL.

I can't trust a nine-year-old son of the guy who runs WWE.

Who can I trust?

Come on, Nick.

Nick's patting his son on the head right now. He's like, great job.
Good job, son. Did it again.
Well, I'm trying to figure out. Oh, two or more diss tracks from Kendrick Lamar regarding Drake.
His mind is 400. Wow.
Well, he's definitely playing Not Like Us. Right.
So then they would have to. Maybe, does a medley count? What if it's a medley with like four songs in it? Yeah, they have to because everything's a medley now.
They don't really stop down for new songs. And then there's dumb shit.
There's Taylor Swift to announce pregnancy during or after Super Bowl 16 to 1. Will he propose Travis after at 8 to 1? We might just have to do that so you don't throw up again.
Can we talk about the proposal? Because why is that still lingering in such a real way? Makes you almost think it's going to happen after the game. If the NFL was scripted, the Chiefs would win and then he would propose.
So 8-1 seems high. Right.
And he didn't go to the Grammys, which is going on right now as we're... Also, that's a better bet than Chiefs' money line because he's not going to propose if they lose.
That's true. He's only proposing if they win.
Right, right, right. The Chiefs have lost by 10.
Hold on. Let's go to the field where Travis Kelsey has a special announcement.
Right. It has to be a win.
Chiefs are going to try harder if they know he has plans to propose. I don't know.
It gets confusing. Probably not.
Do you know Metro Boomin? What about him? He's the first celebrity on stage. He's plus 125.
He's the favorite. Not Tommy Alter? Tommy's fourth.
I had Tommy Alter. He's my number one.
I'm trying to think that might be it before we get to the good stuff there what are the ads of me being in New Orleans is it what do you do you have another NBA thing this week or something I don't know there might be more trades I don't know oh that's right you got to stick around for these dumb as you know because you've seen it New Orleans is terrible for me yeah it's not fun for you I can it. I can't handle it.
So that doesn't mean I'm not going to go, but I know that it's a bad city for me. Yeah.
Well, the bad thing is you could not even be looking for trouble and get food poisoning from Roy Oysters. How do you say that? Yeah, it's Roy Oysters.
You know Roy Oysters. Roy Oysters is a new state of community.
He's touring with Jeff Ross and Bill Burr. He's going to be the first diss track.
Yeah. Alright, so the quick setup for Gary Russell, this was a million years ago.
We were doing a Super Bowl props right around when we invented Super Bowl props in the 2000s. You did the Gary Russell bet.
You had this big bet. You were all

excited about it. I thought it was going to be like

Ben Roethlisberger, 280 yards or whatever

it was. Nope.

This was Cardinal Steelers Super Bowl and your

big thing was Gary Russell.

What was that? He would... To not

score a touchdown. To not score a touchdown.

You had studied it, researched

it. It was minus 150.
He had

like two touchdowns all year. I was like, why is this only minus 150? Yeah.
So he scores in the first quarter. And I think we were watching the Superbowl together and we're just dying laughing.
And then we get this email from somebody who said they were at a Superbowl party. There's a male and a female.
They both started laughing. They didn't know who each other were.
They were like, do you guys listen? Do you listen to the BS report? And they ended up getting married. So the Gary Russell pod has led to, this pick has led to a marriage.
It's led to a marriage. It's led to almost bankruptcy for me.
I am not very good at it. Now I pick an underachieving no-name player to have a reception or a carry.
I hit with Henry Hanowski. The concept is, it's the least sexy prop you can bet.
But you're Adam and Lee. Hank Hanowski was the best one, I think.
That was good. I took your Patriots tight end once, that Michael Humanoi.
Oh, yeah. That one hit.
Yeah, Michael Humanoi. I think that hit.
But honestly, I don't think I've hit since Fozzie Whitaker. I feel like the, and I feel like the Chiefs and Eagles have ruined the Gary Russell special because we kind of know all the third and fourth stringers, right? I'm not going to go with Kenneth Gainwell or Jahan Dotson or you said Samadji P.
Ryan for the Chiefs. Otherwise, we know the top six receivers.
So I had to dig deep. And here's what I ended up with.
I was never going to count you out. I knew you would find something.
You weren't going to quit on Gary Russell. No, I can't quit on Gary Russell.
I can't believe we haven't heard from that couple. It must have split early on, if that's actually how they met.
Yeah, maybe that's like a sad story now. It's a sad story.
It's a divorce. The guy's living with his parents.
Please reach out to us if that's the case are you ready yeah Chiefs defensive lineman Mike Dana to record a sack at plus 235 is the Gary Russell special 2025 hear me out 27 year old fifth round pick out of Michigan he's on the postseason roster had a good game against the bills he had a sack he did his name was his name was mentioned a couple times he had a sack and now it's gonna be mentioned again and again again he had six and a half sacks last year he had five and 22 he had two at philly in 2021 he's one of those guys simmons you talk about who was like really good in high school and then some scouts saw that and he was really good in college and then he ended up being a pro. Oh, my theory.
Yeah, when a guy is really good high school, college, and then the pros. Yeah, they get recognized.
Yeah. Derrick Henry theory.
Four tackles, a sack, two quarterback hits, a forced fumble against the Bills. Madden gives him 85 acceleration and 90 tackling ability.
Mike Dana, go get it. My Gary Russell special dude of 2025, a sack plus 235.
Grew up in Michigan. Played at Central Michigan University and the University of Michigan.
Fifth round draft pick. Six foot one and a half, 251.
Oh, stud. He's won two Super Bowls,

re-signed with the Chiefs on a three-year,

$24 million deal in April 2024.

He's not chopped liver, that Mike Dana.

Yeah.

No way.

Mike Dana.

Great one.

There we go.

All right.

That's our Super Bowl prop stuff.

So you're doing a whole bunch of stuff this week.

You're going to New Orleans.

We're going to be doing a bunch of content.

And eventually, they'll give you a pick. Do you want to do parent corner quick? I could do it.
I have one. Yeah.
All right. Uh, I, uh, well, first of all, I crashed puberty night the other night.
Remember I told you Harrison and his friends. Yeah.
There's a, there's an instructor and we switch houses every Friday. Um, they gather and there's something going on.
And this week it was at my house. So it was hard to avoid, even though my wife's like, just get lost.
You're not mature

enough for this. So I was going to take my other son out to dinner, but I was like, let me check

in on this. And they're showing a birth on TV.
It's like on my television, like a birth. And the

kids are like covering their faces and everything. And then they have, yeah, it's really nutty.
And

they have questions afterwards about pregnancy. And Harrison asks, can the baby poop when it's inside the mother? And I just like snickered and I was like, I got to get the hell out of here.
This is just too stupid. But that's part one.
Part two, you talked about the Royal Rumble. I still love it.
I still do like the pool as long as there's like four people involved.

So I was like, all right, I'll put up $50.

My godson was here, my two younger sons.

It was me.

And then we picked numbers for Archie,

who's in college, right?

So we got six people,

or no, five people, six picks each.

And it comes down to Jey Uso, who Harrison has,

and John Cena, who Archie has.

And Archie loved John Cena.

He was his absolute favorite growing up.

So it's kind of poetic. And like you said, it would make sense that John Cena would at least come down to these two.
He would win. He would emerge.
They've been hinting at it for a month and a half. And this is the farewell tour.
John Cena is going to be leading WrestleMania. And it doesn't happen for John Cena.

Jey Uso ends up winning.

Harrison wins the $50 and immediately makes a taunting video

and puts it on the family text chain.

He's like, your boy lost it for you, Archie.

That's it for you.

$50 right here.

Sorry, pal.

You know, all that stuff.

And then Archie, a few hours later, says, I didn't even get to, congratulations, Harrison. I didn't even get to pick my numbers.
I will be back better than ever next year. And so that we could go back to these days.
And he pans the camera and he shows his laptop of Harrison having a temper tantrum when he lost the Royal Rumble. Oh, he's taunting him for past behavior.
So I was like, this is great. This is the best thing I've ever done.
You've always wanted this. Created shit on the family text chain.
Melissa's like, what's wrong with you people? So anyway. Wow.
She's definitely like that south side of the family. Yeah, that's it.
So my son was going away this weekend and I drove him. He was going on some skiing trip, even though he barely skis.

And I drove him to a friend's house so he could drop his stuff off there

because they were leaving from the friend's house after school.

So I drive Ben and his friend to school, which I haven't done in a while.

Kid gets in, his friend gets in the back.

Ben, who was sitting in the front with me, then goes and gets in the back. So now I have no passenger seat.
And I don't know, what's your stance on this? Because I'm like, what am I, the fucking Uber driver? He's like, well, I didn't want him to be alone in the back. I'm like, cool, this is crazy.
There's nobody in the front seat. You guys aren't like eight, like you're 17.
Like you should be in the front. He's like, well, I want to sit back here.
And, uh, I usually say something, I usually say something stupid, like in a butler voice, like, would you care to go to the parks? Uh, you know, and nobody ever gets it. And now that's it.
So what are the passenger, what are the parent passenger rules when this happens? Like, cause I really feel like your kid should sit in the passenger seat. And then if he wants to talk to his friend, turn around and talk to him.
But don't leave the passenger seat empty. We have three basically adults.
They're both juniors in high school. And I'm in the front and they're in the back.
It's just fucking weird. Okay.
So this is different, I think, than from when we were growing up and everything else.

Because are they showing each other stuff on the phone for the whole ride?

No. They just wanted it.
They're both on their phone. I don't even know.
Maybe they're texting

about me with a doofus item. I don't know what they're doing.

They could do that anyway. They could still do that.
You're watching the road.

Yeah. It's weird, man.
I don't like it. So I'm on the record with that.
Another

bank complete. Now, because we're roughly around the same size, he just comes into my closet and just takes, oh, I need a t-shirt.
I'm tired of my own t-shirts. I'll just grab one of dad's.
And he just goes in and he picks. And then I never see a t-shirt again.
And he also picks out. He's ruffling through them.
So it's like this pile in my shelf so marshals the whole thing of like i hope my kid grows and we're around the same size someday it's actually when it actually happens it sucks because he just starts wearing my clothes and then the third thing was um he he wanted to get some ski stuff for the trip and he's like no i'm gonna do it myself i'm gonna do it myself like all right this is gonna be a disaster um right so he said no no i'm doing myself so he goes and he gets a couple things and uh he thinks he's good and then my wife came home and she's like i thought we're gonna get no he's like i'm good i'm good so then he shows this bag of what he got and And he got like 40% of the stuff.

Is there a bigger heat check than the boys in that 16 to 18 range who are like the, I got this, I got this.

And they just are fucking terrible at everything.

Yeah.

They don't have it.

Guess what?

You don't have anything.

You're driving around with a broken windshield wiper that I told you to fix three weeks ago.

And then it starts raining and you put the windshield wipers on and you scratch the

windshield.

Like you don't have anything.

It's like, you're not smarter than me.

I am positive I'm smarter than you.

Thank you. Yeah.
And skiing trip is right there at the top of that. I mean, you can forget a million things, right? Yeah.
Yeah. That's bad to jump into first.
One of the first things to jump into. But it's like you become this basketball coach where you're bringing somebody off the bench and the guys just not listening to the plays and then like dribbling into a triple team.

You're basically Bronny James.

And you're just like, you're just supposed to run the pivot action to the side.

This heat check age that boys have, it just makes me want to punch Ben like twice a week.

And he'd probably take me in a fight.

Can he just reach into your closet and grab some ski clothes?

I don't understand. Just fucking listen to me.

I told you to get oil.

Like I told you. I know you told me.

Yeah, but you didn't get the oil.

Right. I know.

Does it get better?

Archie's now about to hit his 20s.

Does it get better? No, it's about

the same. I don't know.
Archie started cooking for himself now, which surprised me. Does he clean up after? Not that great at that, but it could be a little worse.
That was another thing with Ben. Our dog was sick for a week because he put the fucking cake frosting right next to the counter and then he blamed the dog.
Well, he shouldn't have gone up there and gotten it. Murph has an IQ has an IQ of 20.
Like you can't be like what things he shouldn't have done. He's an idiot.
But is this a boy thing? I mean, you have one of each so I don't know. I really think it's a boy thing.
I don't. I just think they feel like they're always right and they're also still stupid because they're not adults yet and that front

part of their brain hasn't fully formed. So it's

a rare combination of irrational confidence

and lack of experience

with everything. And I don't need

help. It's what women accuse

of us, like never asking for directions

but then this is like the less mature

thing. Yeah.

Just leave me alone.

And then they're batting 28%% decisions. Sitting in the back seat.
And then sitting in the back seat as I'm driving. My son did a weird thing real quick about that.
Like not sitting. Not only did he not sit in the front seat, but I had to take a bunch of wrestlers to a tournament.
He let like one of the wrestlers sit in the front seat with me. Like, instead of him, instead of him, I was like,

all right,

I guess I'll talk to this kid for an hour.

Wow.

Front.

What do you just don't like us?

That might be.

Yeah.

Yeah.

That might be it too.

Can they just say that?

Yeah.

All right.

Cause good luck in New Orleans.

There it is.

We missed you.

Come down,

man.

You can come for a couple nights.

Don't worry.

I can't be ruled out.

Good luck with the betting and all the picking this week. And I will see you on Sunday night after the Super Bowl.
Yes. Good job by you, buddy.
Good job by you. All right.
That's it for the podcast. Thanks to Goldsberry and Sal.
Thanks to Kyle and Saruti and Gahal. As always, you can watch all the clips and videos from this podcast on the Bill Simmons YouTube channel.
We have new rewatchables coming for you as well. On Monday night, we did Before Sunrise last week, doing Before Sunset.
On Monday night, that's going up. Brought in a fourth person with me and Sean and Chris Ryan to talk about one of my favorite movies of the 2000s.
You can watch that on the

Ringer Movies YouTube channel as well. I'm going to see you definitely for another podcast Tuesday

or Wednesday. Not sure which day.
So. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com.
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