The Colbert-CBS Drama and NFL Leap Team Possibilities With Matt Belloni and Nate Tice

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We did species this time around.

We're getting weird.

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So I cut down the Sundays,

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And most importantly, I needed to start prepping for the football season.

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So that's coming up later.

Big football

conversation with Nate, but leading off with Matt Bellany, who hosts the town for us.

But we got to talk about Stephen Colbert, CBS,

Trump, Skydance, Paramount.

everything that's going on.

How does this affect Jon Stewart?

Is Late Night TB Dead?

There's just so many storylines with this that uh, it's the rare podcast where we're leading with Hollywood stuff, so uh, that's all coming up next.

I had a whole NBA thing I was going to do, but I think I'm going to save that for a later podcast.

Uh,

so that's it, that's what I got for you.

Matt Bellany, Nate Tice, Hollywood football, all next.

Let's take a break and then pro Jam.

All right, Matt Bellany is here.

He hosts a great podcast called The Town for the Ringer.

You can also read him on Puck.

And we have Friday news dumps in media.

And there's been some great ones over the year.

When you get to July, you can almost pull off the Thursday news dump, Matt Bellany.

And CBS did this.

They shockingly, although I guess it wasn't as shocking as maybe it felt when it happened, shockingly got rid of Stephen Colbert's show in May.

It's going to be gone.

This could be the death of late night TV on CBS.

And as you've covered in Puck and you covered on your podcast on Friday, we are moving toward a different era of late night, which might not even be an era.

Were you surprised by this when you heard the news?

Yes.

The short answer is yes, because I didn't think they would pull the plug like that.

I thought there would be a protracted cuts and salary reduction and an attempt to save the show rather than simply cut bait.

But at the time, I didn't know, and I think most people around town did not know how much money Late Show was losing each year because CBS had kept that pretty quiet.

And once I got into the numbers, it makes sense there that they would say, you know what, this is not salvageable.

This is not a matter of Colbert taking a 30% pay cut, firing some people, getting rid of the band, all the things that we've seen in other areas of late night.

There was just a big chasm because the show costs more than $100 million a year to make.

Depending on who you believe, it's well over $40 million that it's losing or about $40 million, which is what my sourcing says.

Now, there are some caveats to that and some ancillary revenue that's not counted there, but

that's just not tenable.

And then you have the politics angle, which we can discuss.

But no, once you get into the numbers, it's not surprising.

I have the politics angle saved for the second piece of this.

The first part, so you reported $40 million a year, it's losing,

which seemed high to me.

But I'm not going to say I don't believe it, but it seemed high.

I always wonder with studios, we see this all the time with back-end end deals with movies and you know they they can kind of rig numbers however they want what how come i know they're telling you 40 million well my sourcing is telling me yeah we're sourcing you're hearing but it's not just coming from one source let's just say that yeah but i'm saying i run these numbers by many people in the ecosystem of a show But we've seen people go the other way with this, where if they want to brag about something, they could say, oh, it's making this.

Yeah, it's generating one amount in revenue, which is what they often will say, not accounting for the costs.

And late show is a complicated thing because it's produced by CBS Studios.

So essentially, CBS, the network, pays CBS Studios a license fee for the show.

So it adds another level of complexity.

We saw this with Family Guy years ago, where Family Guy was technically losing money for Fox.

But because Fox produced the show, it was making money because they sold the show all over the world in syndication, other rights, where they were making a fortune on it, even if they weren't making money on Fox.

Now, that is not an option that is available to a show like Late Show with Stephen Colbert because it is a American topical comedy show.

It doesn't have much value after it airs on the linear channel and on the YouTube channel.

It just kind of goes away.

So that you take away that revenue.

You take away away the fact that it's a much smaller show on digital footprints.

It has about a third the YouTube subscribers as Jimmy Fallon does on the tonight show, half of what Kimmel has.

And then you look at the other value that Colbert has for CBS, where he doesn't do a lot of other things for CBS.

He produced the late night show after midnight,

which got canceled after Taylor Tomlinson left, but he's not hosting the Macy's Day parade like Fallon is.

He's not doing millionaire for ABC like Kimmel is.

It's those two guys have much more of an ingrained relationship with their network than Stephen Colbert does.

He just hosted a show.

Right.

So he definitely, the show lost money, there's no question.

They could probably get creative about how much they're saying it.

You made the key point, though.

It didn't have the same social media footprint.

as the two Jimmies, especially, because they can make a bunch of money on the YouTube side.

This goes backwards, though, because you have to really go to COVID, where that's really when the ad money started to shift for all these, uh, for all these shows, partly because of COVID, the writer's strike.

Um, but then you also have just habits are shifting, you know, when was the last time real time.

When was the last time you, Bill Simmons, cozied up to a late night show at the 1130 hour and just sat and watched it?

I'm always going to watch it on streaming or, or on, I'll watch a YouTube clip.

The only time I can remember doing this recently was with Jon Stewart's first show back.

I will occasionally watch Stewart if I'm like up and I will flip over.

But Colbert was getting 2.5 million viewers on average on Linear, which shockingly in this day and age was the leading show, according to that metric, on broadcast.

Now, if you talk the Fox News guy, Greg Gutfeld gets more, but that's a whole other thing.

It's got

11.

And the audience is like, you know, literally hooked up to to an iv because they're so old but the the

the the fact that the leading show got canceled i think is shocking to a lot of people but the stuff that you just talked about the digital and the other things that's where it it comes into greater focus and you're like oh okay i get it well so here's here's what i don't get

so the model's changing They're still making all these late night shows in the same expensive way they were doing it 20, 25 years ago, right?

Where you have, I don't know how many people work on a late night show, but it's a 2000.

They say 200.

Colbert said 200.

Colbert.

Yeah, I'm just going to say 175 to 200 people working on a show that you're delivering four nights a week, usually taking summers off, 40 weeks a year.

So it's, so in the old days, the motto for the late night show was, well, this is eating innings, like almost like a starter that can throw 250 innings at baseball.

It's like, oh, every five days we get to trot this out.

And it used to be a younger demo.

It used to be a place where younger people would go to CBS because usually the primetime audience was older and the Letterman audience was younger at the beginning.

And it was really the only place that you would get to see, you know, big stars like Leo DiCaprio or, you know, George Clooney on these networks because they would come on the late night show.

And it was sort of a cachet thing.

Well, it was the number one stop if you were promoting anything.

And then, as we saw, really in the last, I would say since the 2016 election, when podcasts became, you know, moved into the conversation for all that stuff.

I just thought it was weird to me.

There wasn't any innovation with the model.

And I think there wasn't innovation because these shows made a shitload of money until recently, until those two events.

I think they kind of didn't want to change.

It was like, well, it's if it ain't broken, don't don't fix it.

But when you think about it, you have all these people that work for a show, you have really talented hosts and you have this social media you know all these all these side things you could be doing to just kind of do the show the same way you did it 10 years ago doesn't make sense so the part that does that surprises me matt is they didn't go to him and say hey let's make a real effort to try to fix this the show loses money late night is changing How can we do a completely different show?

Maybe you only need 10 people that work for the show.

Maybe it's just you doing one long guest.

We'll pay your salary.

We'll have a couple of producers and that'll just be the show four days a week.

Instead, they were like, we're out in May.

This is a wrap.

This is done.

And we'll get to some conspiracy stuff with that.

But to not go to him and say, how can we fix this?

When he'd been there for, I don't know, a decade, I was really surprised by that.

I think it's hard to do that to a show.

where there are employees that have worked there for 10, 20 years

and a host that is used to making a certain amount, $20 million a year is what I've been told.

And to say, we need to do something completely different.

These people that have been supporting you since you started on this network, 70% of them are going to be gone.

And this salary that you've been making and you've been building up your entire career, you're going to make half as much as you can.

Yeah, but they did it.

They did it by canceling the show.

They did it anyway.

They did it.

But they're doing it anyway.

Like,

why isn't there a plan B for it?

Yeah, it's true.

And I just think from my sourcing, the response I got to that was it's almost like a level of respect with a host and with a team where it's like, we can't just gut it.

Like

there is a certain amount of cutting we can do to these shows that they are still recognizable.

You can still do the Seth Meyers show without a band.

So they said your band is gone.

You can still do these shows four nights a week without cutting so much to the bone that they're not, they don't feel like nightly talk shows.

So they cut all these shows, tonight shows four nights a week.

Colbert, four nights a week.

So there is, but if you start going beyond that, and my understanding is that the

value and the price, the

loss discrepancy there was so large that it would have been such a fundamentally different show that it was just hard to have that conversation.

That is my understanding.

Now, we can get into the other reasons as well, but

I do kind of understand how you either do it or don't.

The other thing is, CBS owns that building, the Ed Sullivan Theater.

And if you look at what they've been doing across the company, they sold Television City in LA.

They sold BlackRock in New York.

They are going to sell the Ed Sullivan Theater for a lot of money.

So, what do you say to Colbert?

Oh, and by the way, you're going to move to a tiny studio uptown that is going to make your show look like it's, you know, John Oliver, where it doesn't feel like a nightly talk show.

Like, it just, I don't know, when you start to really look at it, you say, okay, what are we even doing here?

Right.

And maybe this is just a format that now when we're in this TikTok, Instagram, YouTube era, and we have a Kajillion podcast.

that maybe this is, maybe this is the natural end of the format.

I know everybody's been talking about it forever.

Kimmel's openly talked about how this is probably his last deal and then maybe do something else and maybe this is just maybe this is how it ends like when we were growing up you watch carson live at 11 30 like you you know and if you missed it there was really no way to to see what happened unless you started taping on a vcr or something and now it's like if anything happens But if anything happens on a late night show now, I'll be able to see the clip the next day.

Of course.

So you've removed all of the all of the necessity to watch it in the moment.

Yeah.

And you talk about innovation innovation and the lack of innovation in the format.

I disagree a little bit, only in the sense that the stuntification of late night, I think, is an innovation.

And the acknowledgement that

means the viral moment with Olivia Rodrigo, Rihanna, and Seth Meyers daydreaming.

That's from 10 years ago.

The mid-2010s was even like you go back to Jimmy Doing the I'm fucking Ben Affleck, I'm fucking Mac Damon.

That was 2008.

Totally agree, but the Cordon show, for instance, largely existed to produce those moments.

They knew nobody was watching at 1230.

They didn't even really try at 1230.

They put all their efforts into these franchise bits and segments that not only could live on digital, but became other shows.

They were selling Carpool Karaoke, the series to Apple.

They were selling, you know, there's

all sorts of things that they sold.

They were partnering directly with advertisers to create segments that would live on the 1230 show, but mostly were there for YouTube.

So I think they were tweaking it.

It didn't change the fact that these hour-long shows were, you know, monologue, bit,

A, celebrity, B, celebrity, musical guest, good night.

Like that didn't change and maybe it should have, but

I don't know.

I just don't think anything could have really stemmed the tide of the viewer erosion that we've seen people just aren't watching stuff and i know colbert had a big rating but cbs i mean my dad loved cbs he was devastated when blue bloods got canceled my view half that audience is keeled over on the couch with their heads yeah to the right and just whatever is on is what's getting a getting a rating like i don't I don't even know what the answer would have been if I'm CBS and it's like, let's put something different in here.

Let's bring in Theo Vaughan.

Maybe we could get Theo.

Like, they're not doing that.

So I don't know.

Theo Vaughn doesn't want that job.

No, no.

Well, that's that was the interesting thing with Taylor Thomason because they renewed the show.

Yeah.

And she said, I actually quit.

I don't want to do this anymore because

I was saying this to somebody that a few months ago, actually, Nate Bragatzi, who is an awesome guy who sells out NBA arenas all over the place, right?

Anytime he wants, he could just go to another 10, 15, 18, 20,000 venue and do comedy for two hours and he makes a ton of money.

That's the kind of guy in 1989, we would have been like, oh, could he be the next 1230 host?

And the chances are there's no fucking way he's doing that.

No, he would have taken that job 30 years ago.

Look at your guy, Shane Gillis.

Shane Gillis would be absolutely groomed for a talk show of some sort.

Or a big studio moment.

Is Shane Gillis too edgy to have a 1230 show?

We would add all.

Or he would have done an R-rated comedy for a big studio and had his moment trying to be a movie star.

He's not even trying to be a movie star.

He's doing his own comedy tour.

He did his own show that he brought to Sunday.

No, he didn't bring it to Sunday.

He did his own show and he sold it to Netflix after he made it

because he just did it on his own.

Like he doesn't need these platforms because these guys have such big touring businesses on their own.

Well, I look at somebody like Kimmel.

When Kimmel got the ABC show,

which I was lucky enough to get hired for and get to meet him and get his whole crew,

you know he's on the man show

they have this spot at 12 it's going to be 12 05 abc right after nightline and it's him versus jon stewart and it's like this coveted piece of tv real estate if you took 2002 jimmy now and just put him in a time machine he wouldn't want to host a late night show he would want to you know he would he would probably try to either have some sort of daily serious stern show or he would want to have like his version of a big podcast that's four or five days a week.

I don't even think he would already have it toward a late night show, right?

First of all, he would have already had a following on digital that he owned as his following.

True.

Right?

Yeah, they would have owned the man show.

They would have been putting out the clips.

Exactly.

And he would have had to look and say, okay, do I want to tie myself down to a late night ABC show for Disney?

Or do I want to own my destiny and grow?

And yeah, maybe I'll host the SBs.

Maybe I'll do other things like Shane Gillis just did.

But I don't need that.

Best thing that ever happened to Shane Gillis was he got fired off SNL before he ever aired.

Right.

Maybe you're right.

No, you're 100%.

He would have gone into the churn and become another one of those people where five years later, we're all saying, oh, well, they have careers afterward.

And nobody's saying that about him now.

He's a power.

Right.

No, you're right.

I think with

the...

when we talk about like the future of late night, which basically there is no future.

You don't think there's any future.

See, that is the question.

But to me, it's like SNL is still getting huge ratings.

And a big piece of that is that it's live.

And I do wonder if, and ironically, Jimmy was the one that his show's called Jimmy Come Alive because he did it live.

For

a couple weeks.

Well, it was a couple of months, actually, but there are all these reasons why we couldn't do it that way anymore.

Yeah, you were there.

I was not there.

I've heard some stories.

Yeah, you know, it wasn't a great model and it was very unreliable and a million things could go wrong every day.

But ironically, that might be the model that works now for late night where it's like, this is live.

You don't know what the fuck's going to happen.

Hold on to the next one.

The wild card in all of this is what the streamers are going to do about this kind of comedy.

Because so far, the late night host model has largely not worked on streaming.

There was a Hassan Minaj show.

There's been efforts to take these broadcast shows.

Why are you saying largely?

It's never worked.

There hasn't been one success.

Oliver and Bill Maher do okay on HBO Max.

Oliver and Bill Maher, Bill Maher launched in 2004 and Oliver launched what, 2014?

Those shows do well on the service, whereas late night with Stephen, the late show with Stephen Colbert did not do well on Paramount Plus.

And Kimmel's numbers, I don't know what Kimmel's numbers are on Hulu, but I'm betting they're not great because the clips are all free on YouTube.

For some reason, the Bill Maher and John Oliver shows they are churn protectors at HBO Max, meaning people are subscribed to those services for those shows and are their fans.

And if you cancel them, those people will be pissed and may leave.

And they keep people coming back to an app that is not the first choice for a lot of people in streaming.

So they have a pretty big value to HBO Max.

Netflix, where no one show is particularly important to Netflix because they have so much, they have not been able to launch this kind of comedy.

And we just this last week got the numbers from Mulaney.

And Mulaney did not try to do a mainstream talk show.

Everybody's live with John Mulaney.

It was, I watched it many times.

I'm a fan.

It was not a mainstream show, but I was surprised at how few people watched.

She got 1.6 million for the first episode, and it went precipitously downhill from there.

And it averaged 500,000 viewers for the entire season.

Not great.

I don't think he cared about having having a giant audience for that show.

I think he wanted, I think they gave him a lot of money to do whatever the hell he wanted.

Yes.

And he wanted to make a very better show that people would love.

A small group of people would really, really love.

And it might get nominated for, I guess it didn't get nominated for awards, but it didn't.

But there was only three categories.

He got nominated, I believe, in some small category, but it was renewed.

They ordered two seasons.

So we'll see if they actually air the second one.

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You mentioned Gutfield before.

If you look at the last 10 years of

talk shows, whether they're weekly or daily that have launched, and I would like to include myself that lasted less than 20 episodes,

None of them worked.

Not one of them.

I don't think any of them made it.

And I think the number is actually

way bigger than you'd think.

These shows are not

hitting.

Sam B had a moment.

Sam B did okay for a while.

It got canceled.

It did.

Yeah, I guess

that one maybe lasted two years.

But what's interesting is...

We've had a million successful podcasts, right?

And we've had podcasts that are weekly, like even Polar's podcast recently, but then we'll have the ones that are three, four, five times a week.

Pohl is a perfect example.

Poehler would have had a talk show in 12 years ago.

21 to 20 years ago, NBC, 1230.

Absolutely.

Amy Poehler would have been a hot commodity and she would have gotten a show somewhere, daytime or

evening, whatever she wanted.

Conan is a great

test case of the new normal here because he made it.

He had the 1230 show.

They moved into 1130.

It didn't work under those terms of the time that he was there.

They'd kill for those numbers now.

Right.

Then he went to TBS and in cable, it kind of worked for a little while because there was still an audience there.

Then didn't make sense in cable, went to do his own podcast, and he's never been more popular.

He got demoted to podcast territory, quote unquote, and it made him even more popular to the point where

Turner gave him a travelogue show, which got nominated for Emmys, and he hosted the freaking Oscars and he got a kennedy senator award you know like conan's never been cooler and he's arguably been like put into the wilderness it's crazy i mean that the only shows that are the outliers are saturated live

um marr and oliver like and then kimmel's model i i still think kimmel and fallon are really really really relevant on youtube I mean, they have massive, massive channels.

If something happens on those shows, everyone's going to see it.

And they were able to crack the code on that.

But that doesn't explain why those shows have to be on at 11.35 at night every night.

And here's the question that gets dicey.

Is Olivia Rodrigo and

name your big star, Tom Cruise?

Is Tom Cruise going on Fallon if it's just a digital show?

Yeah, probably not.

I don't know.

Because

Tom Cruise's people are sophisticated.

They know the currency of him going on Fallon is not the 1130 audience.

It's whatever he does and says travels the universe online.

But there is a kind of imprimature of quality and prestige that the tonight show has with a certain audience.

And when you're scrolling through YouTube, it's not just Jimmy Kimmel or Jimmy Fallon doing a stunt with a celebrity.

You can get that on Hot Ones.

You can get it on Chicken Shop Date.

You can get it on a Million Marin.

You can get it on Bill Simmons.

But there's something about the Tonight Show that is a differentiator.

I don't know how long that branding matters, especially to young people, but it still does kind of matter that it's a TV show.

The tonight show will be the last one left.

So you have the tonight show and your last man standing.

Yeah, and I don't even know if it'll be Fallon necessarily.

I just think that's someone to replace him.

Someone will get that show and it will outlive Fallon.

I think the Tonight Show and Siren Live will never, when we're live, those shows will always exist.

Those will be the two.

Kim Kim will show as soon as he's done doing it.

That show will be done.

Yeah.

Nobody's replacing that.

The CBS has already punted it.

Yeah.

But I think the tonight show is enough of an institution.

I don't know.

Like, let's say you're running NBC.

Do you want to be the person that got rid of Saturn Live in the tonight show?

You're not?

Nobody's doing that.

I agree with you.

SNL is a different thing because they can.

significantly cut the budget of that show when once Lauren is gone.

And it's still SNL.

It may not be as good.

They could also make more shows if they're doing 20 a year.

I know.

And they sit out the summer when 900 things are happening.

I can't believe they do that.

It's partly because of the way the show is made.

It's so difficult to make it the way they make it.

It's an opportunity for somebody to compete with them directly in a real way.

They could do a summer stunt SNL for four weeks in July and sell ads into it and capture all the news and people would watch.

But Lauren doesn't want to do that.

No, maybe the next one.

Lauren's on Paul McCartney's yacht for most of the summer.

Yeah, maybe the next person would.

All right.

So who do you think is next?

Seth obviously has a target.

I don't know.

I hate speculating on what shows.

You know all these guys.

No, no, it's not, it's not even.

Yeah, I do know, but it's not even that.

It's you could just see where it's heading.

I think what was interesting about this Colbert thing, beyond all the stuff we already talked about, is, you know, there's real conspiracy angles with this, with this Paramount being settled.

Colbert was killing

Trump in the settlement this week.

Two days later, the whole thing happens, and they executed it

pretty fastidiously.

Yes.

So, where do you fall on the conspiracy scale?

Do you think this is 10% politics, 90% politics?

I think the show lost money, and I think they, they, whatever this merge, this is my take.

I don't have full inside information.

This is just me reading the tea leaves and being a smart person.

I think I'm a smart person.

I think

this merger is going through.

The new guy doesn't want to take over CBS Paramount and the first thing you do is get rid of Colbert.

But I also think the merger wasn't going through unless they start kowtowing to the president with stuff like this.

Oh, so you think it was a quid pro quo?

We will not approve your merger unless unless you fire Stephen Colbert.

I don't think it was that.

I think it was a concern

that this would be the type of thing.

I mean, as we're recording this today, he just said how he wants Washington to

become the Redskins again, or he's not going to approve the new RFK stadium.

I think this is a piece of a bigger chess move where it's not just this.

I'm genuinely worried about Stewart's show and the daily show and whether that's going to be next.

Because I think that that there is some kind of macro agreement between Paramount, the new owners, David Ellison and crew, and the Trump administration to wipe the slate clean of media that Trump does not like.

Does Bill think that?

I don't know.

Does conspiracy Bill think that?

100%.

Listen, it's impossible to know.

Trump could announce tomorrow that this was all his plan, and I don't think I would believe him if he said it.

So we'll know if the daily show is canceled on Monday, we'll know exactly what's going on.

Um, Daily Show, by the way, also not a profit center, but we do, but the daily show is on Comedy Central.

There has to be a certain amount of original programming on these cable networks to justify their carriage fees.

So, the economics are a little different there.

It's also a lot less expensive to produce the daily show than it is to do a show like late show.

Um, but if they just cut bait on Jon Stewart and the full daily show, then we know that this is pressure.

Well, then it's not even worth discussing.

I think the irony of this is the daily show and that Jon Stewart move was not even just a home run for them, it was a grand slam.

It completely reinvigorated the show, it reinvigorated him.

Yes, it's been uh awesome content, and they've been bragging about it.

That's the thing.

They put out a press release last week about how Stewart's ratings are up.

You won't, you don't do that if you're planning to cancel the show.

Yeah, but that's the thing.

It's

there's so much money at stake and so much real estate with whatever this merger is that if this is the casualty, it's like, oh, just get rid of those two shows.

Like, you know how these freaking super crazy rich people, like, they do.

These two money-losing shows that only cause us headaches.

Yeah, I'm just like, what?

I don't want to deal with this show.

I don't want this to be my problem when it comes in.

I thought it was interesting that

you reported on this about how, what's his name, George Cheeks?

George Cheeks is the multiple CEOs, right?

They have three CEOs running Paramount, but Cheeks is in charge of CBS.

And

Chris McCarthy is the one in charge of Comedy Center, who is very instrumental in bringing Stewart back.

Yes.

And we also don't know which one of these CEOs, who has the most juice.

Did they have equal juice?

No, we do know that Chris McCarthy is expected to leave the company, and George Cheeks is expected to stay.

So my theory that I have voiced on the town is that I think George Cheeks is signaling to the new ownership with this cancellation that he can make the tough, unemotional decisions on money-losing sacred cows like Stephen Colbert.

And if it happens to

please the president at a time when Skydance could really use the president to be happy with them, then that's an added bonus.

So, I would say I'm less conspiratorial than maybe Conspiracy Bill is,

but I do acknowledge the cloud of politics that is hovering over all of this.

I just think that CBS has been looking at this a long time.

They know that this is not getting better.

It's not like they take a little pay cut here, survive for a year or two, and then they come back when the ad market comes back.

The ad market is not coming back in linear television.

And

if you're looking at this unemotionally, shows that are not making money should not be on the air.

And we're going to see, I think, with the new Skydance regime at Paramount, a significant cut in the original programming on CBS and all the channels.

We're going to see primetime get gutted.

We're going to see

morning and afternoon.

Did prime time already get gutted?

It's been gutted, but CBS has been one of the few that is hanging on to scripted programming during primetime.

If you look at CBS, they have less of the reality and news programming during prime prime time than NBC and ABC do.

And they've been justifying that because they say their audience is older.

They're still watching TV.

They still have these hits.

And they can sell those shows to streaming services later, either their own or another one, or they sell them over to syndication overseas or wherever.

I just think that that money is coming down, down.

So maybe CBS stops programming Friday nights.

Maybe they in their news.

They're going to go on there.

By the way, they can do what ABC and just run a three-hour Bachelor in Paradise episode, which is what they did on Tuesday night.

Or

Bachelor in Paradise.

Yeah, or they have Kimmel do two hours of Celebrity Millionaire on ABC.

They do

Celebrity Wheel of Fortune.

They have Elizabeth Banks doing Press Your Luck during prime time.

They have Steve Harvey doing a judge show.

There's a judge show starring Steve Harvey on ABC in prime time.

It's kind of amazing.

And they do that because it's cheap.

And the economics don't justify the amount of money they spend on scripted.

CBS is making a couple of comedies this year.

They're making a comedy called

DMV.

And the economics on that show, they're shooting it in Montreal.

They're paying people nothing.

It's like a fraction of what a half hour comedy used to cost on CBS.

They're just cutting, cutting, cutting, and not doing originals on broadcast because these are like newspapers and magazines now.

They are dying businesses.

And the only way to make money on them is to suck them dry.

Just cut all the costs and take the revenue as long as you can.

Well, we said in the earlier part of the 2020s, these networks were just going to become sports, late night, and morning programming.

News.

Yeah.

And now...

Now the late night piece is going away.

There's one part I don't understand with the Colbert piece.

Conspiracy Bill doesn't understand it and Bill doesn't understand it either.

Timing.

Why say until May?

Okay.

So I don't understand that part.

Like, why not just say after September sweeps or November sweeps, we're done.

We're going to December.

There's no more Colbert show.

Why go all the way through May?

Well, first of all, his deal goes all the way through May.

So they're paying him regardless.

And secondly, the way the producer deals on Colbert work is the producers on the show are signed from September through August.

That's actually why this was coming up now.

People are like, why now?

You know, if they, if they, if this wasn't related to the merger, then just, you know, wait till the deal closes and then fire him then.

The reason they had to do it now, according to sources, is they have these deals with producers that go from September through August.

And they were going to have to go to these producers and say, honestly, your deal is only going to go through May next year, not August.

So what is Joe Blow producer going to think when he hears that?

Oh, the show is being canceled.

Secondly, they had a negotiation coming up.

Your guy, Baby Doll, he would have started to make noises about a new deal right around now if they wanted to keep Colbert for a new deal.

And my understanding is that there were some questions like, oh, do we want to get into it with them?

Do we want to do this?

And it sort of forced the issue now.

Colbert is the one that wanted to announce it now.

CBS was not positioning this to be announced right now.

I think they knew what the optics would be on this, but Colbert was like, if the show is ending, I need to let my people know right away.

First of all, they need to look for other jobs.

Many of these people have been here for a decade or two.

It's not easy to get another job in this world.

You need to give them time.

And secondly, it's going to leak.

These things never hold.

So if it's going to leak, he want, they told him Wednesday night.

He said, I'm telling my people on Thursday before the show, put out whatever press release you want, and then it'll air on the show Thursday night and done.

And he did.

And I think the fact that he's got 10 months in the chair to do whatever he wants is going to be pretty interesting.

So I just want to say I deliberately did not talk to Baby Doll about any of this because he was going on vacation.

Well, yeah, he might not be home either, but I haven't talked to him about any of this.

We're taping this on a Sunday.

And I think it's really important we're taping this on a Sunday because as far as I know, Jon Stewart has a show on Monday.

And that is going to be the most fascinating show that we've had since the Letterman extortion,

whatever that episode was, which we didn't know was coming.

First of all, Jon Stewart is already rich.

Yes.

And he's already done a million Kajillion things.

And he could give two shits.

Yes.

Right?

For him, it's about his reputation.

That's it.

He doesn't,

he's going to stand up for his dude.

And this is it.

This is, in my opinion, one of the most important shows he's ever done.

There's no way he's not going to talk about it.

Well, the question is: does he quit on the air?

I think it's in play.

I think it's in play.

It's a must-watch show.

Like that,

like, it comes on at eight o'clock here.

Like, I'm definitely watching that live.

So, here's a good question: if Stewart just dive bombs the entire company, quits on the air, drops some F-bombs, names, names, the whole thing.

Do they air it?

Because he tapes.

I don't think he'll do that because he's got a whole staff working for him.

Yeah.

And he's going to be,

but I also think he's going to have to stand up.

And I think everybody would have his back about,

you know, how he's going to feel about this.

But yeah, I.

I don't, if they cancel the show, I think he'll be fine.

I don't think it'll be fine for a lot of people that work for it.

And I think he'll feel bad about that.

But this is the whole point of the show is he's going to, he has to stand up to this.

This is this is 25 years of him on Comedy Central, basically.

Like, you know, I just don't, he doesn't, he's not sending this one out.

Yeah.

And does this issue metastasize to a larger Paramount question?

They're negotiating right now to bring back the South Park guys.

And South Park, you know, they've had this is a South Park's dispute is over money.

They have been fighting with the new regime because the Skydense people have to approve the Paramount deal.

And my understanding is that they are working towards a settlement.

But do those guys go nuclear on them?

I don't think they will because they like making the show.

And literally, it's, they're going to make billions of dollars in their next deal.

But

others could feel differently.

There's a whole,

but I disagree, though, because I think they're in the same spot as Jon Stewart.

Those guys have made a fucking crazy amount of money already.

And I don't know, man.

The point of that show is they stand up to shit like this.

That's true.

They could still do it and not quit.

I'm saying, do they quit?

I don't think the South Park guys quit or just do it for somebody else.

Well, they can't do South Park for anyone else.

No, but they could just create a

property.

Yeah, they could do that.

They got a Kendrick movie coming out next year.

They could do other things, but they have shown over almost 30 years that they really like doing South Park.

And

I think that they will fuck around with the owners, but I don't think they will quit.

Well, this is unprecedented territory.

It really is.

We have a show get canceled, and people's first reaction is:

did the president make this happen?

I know, it's so crazy.

It is.

Guess who owns the network that has the number one show in late night?

Fox, Rupert Murdoch, who Trump sued on Friday.

Because Murdoch owns the Wall Street Journal and they did the Jeffrey Epstein Donald Trump story.

And Murdoch has been an ally of sorts.

He gets into his spats with Trump every once in a while.

But Fox is owned by the Murdochs.

And now they're in litigation with the president.

It's so crazy.

I think this has a chance to be the weirdest Hollywood year ever.

Oh, really?

Because we have five and a half months left.

And I just feel like we're headed toward, like, this was the first salvo.

I just feel like there's more coming movies of the movies with,

in some ways, the movie business is back,

right maybe a little bit sure i'll give you that i max and you know that like there's been there's been some positive momentum and then on the other hand like i don't know what's going to happen with the award season the tv season like i who the fuck knows are there even going to be a network show that anyone cares about anymore certainly not cell a that's not that's not happening will the office spin off work the paper

right and then also like that's going to peacock but all these other non-Netflix streamers are now starting to really cut back on the content they're making.

And this is going to be the first time I think people are going to feel

a real void.

Like, just not, it's not going to be this t-shirt cannon shooting out shows every now.

It's going to be, you have these, like, I just watched the Netflix, the missing lady show on the yacht.

Which one that was?

The missing lady of the week on Netflix?

Missing Lady on the Yacht, whatever that one was called.

I watched all three episodes.

Did you watch this?

That's just going to be TV now.

Of course I watched Poop Cruise.

Who are you talking to?

It was number one on one of the charts one week.

Yeah.

I mean, the number one franchise on Netflix right now is called Train Wreck.

And it's an unscripted documentary franchise about things that happened in the 2000s and 2010s that made cable news headlines, but Gen Z didn't know about and millennials kind of forgot about.

That's basically

like, wait, what's this Bubble Boy?

And now my daughter's watching that going, Dad, what's up with Bubble Boy?

Right, exactly.

The fall of Brett Favre.

What happened there?

Right.

Well, and then you have like shows like Games on Summer I Turn Pretty Season 3.

My daughter is like approaching it like it's a Super Bowl.

I know.

Yeah, it's just TVs.

I think what's really changed the most is that

the monoculture of a TV show, I think, is just, I don't even know like what my daughter's generation.

shows that they're going to share other than Stranger Things.

Wednesday.

Yeah, it's, it's, but it's like less than 10.

I know.

And Stranger Things, check me on the number, but I believe when it ends at the end of this year, Stranger Things will have made and aired like 60-something episodes over 10 years.

Yeah.

It just, it just takes so long to make these shows now that there's no such thing as like, oh, it's September.

We're back in school.

Let's check out the new season of the Cosby show.

Like, there's 22 of these coming.

Like, it's just not the same anymore.

I was on a text thread with some friends who were my age.

There was this thing that was online.

It was the entire Nielsen ratings of the 76, 77 TV season.

It was like 100 shows.

And it was like 1-00.

It was like Laverne and Shirley, Happy Days.

And we were on the thread.

And I was like, I don't understand how I watched 70 of these 100 shows as they were happening.

Like, I'm just going down the line.

Like, I definitely watched that.

I watched that.

When I was an only child, I guess I had a little bit of a woman.

And you were clearly watching sports and movies, too.

Yeah, but and maybe I didn't watch all of them, but I felt like I did.

And anecdotally, I felt like I knew at least what was going on a little bit.

And now it's like, what are those shows like that now?

They're just well, if you look at the number, the top 100 shows from last year, like 90 of them are football games.

I know.

Well, what was interesting about 76, 77,

what number do you think Monday Night Football was in the ratings?

Oh, fascinating.

Clearly, not top 20 because you would have mentioned it.

It was 20th.

It was 20th.

Okay.

So it was still big.

Still big, but not like happy day is big.

That's true.

And still they didn't figure out that if they did that three nights a week, people would also watch three nights a week of football.

Well, that was in addition to Sundays.

Yeah.

Well, that's the only thing that in the end, it's just going to be sports that survives.

Yeah.

I mean, and that sports is now so expensive that these companies can't really afford much else.

CBS is a perfect example.

Like they are looking at this renegotiation that the NFL can do after they change control because they have a right to renew it.

They're going to, of course, do it.

They're going to extract, extract, extract.

That's why I think it wouldn't be surprising to me if the NFL like got a night of television on CBS or an hour twice a week to do highlights during the season or some propaganda show about how great the NFL is in your community.

Like something, they'll get something out of CBS and they'll be able to take some games away probably to sell them to Netflix.

Well, the prices of like when ESPN sold off some of their college football playoff games, I couldn't believe that.

I mean, we're about to find out what happens with UFC.

And I think Netflix is going to get the UFC

numbered pay-per-views.

Dana White said this past week that he's looking forward to being in business with a global platform.

Yeah.

So what does that mean?

Well, so it's it's two deals.

It's the numbered pay-per-views and then it's kind of the rest of it.

And, you know, if it's going to Amazon or Netflix or whoever, it's going to be the numbered ones.

Yeah.

I'm guessing he doesn't mean Apple, even though they technically are a global platform, but I'm betting it's Amazon or Netflix.

It's got to be one of those.

Apple's back.

Oh, you think so?

F1.

They're rejuvenating.

They're going to be your broad movies now.

I like it.

I like the back, baby.

But it doesn't bother you that that movie is probably not going to be profitable in theaters.

Yeah, but that goes back to our accounting thing that we talked about.

I know, I know.

It could be, they'll probably say it was super profitable, and the answer is probably in the middle of the movie.

They will say it has tremendous value on the service.

And great.

We'll see if it pops up on the Nielsen charts.

I bet it will because it's got a lot of attention.

You know, they said that about Killers of the Flower Moon, which definitely lost money in theaters, but they got a ton of Oscar nominations.

Tim Cook got to tweet about Leo DiCaprio and Martin Scrocesi, and it was a sort of brand halo for Apple.

And if that's why they're in the entertainment business, then God bless them.

Because so far, at least, it's certainly not to make money.

Well,

that is true.

I will say,

and I've been critical about some of the Apple shows for the last couple of years, but I do feel like they, I have a better sense of what an Apple show is now, even than when we talked about it on YourPod, you know, six months ago.

There is some sort of a blueprint now with like the one big star,

some sort of angle.

They are the

picture.

Yeah, it's the Star Fucker Network.

It's like if Tim Cook doesn't know who the person is, they can't do a show.

Right.

Like if they could put John Ham with like kind of a torn suit on and like a fancy house behind him, they don't even need to know what the show's about.

Yes.

And they had hits this past year, at least a couple.

Severance was a big hit for them.

Like it was on the charts, which the Apple shows never are except for Ted Lasso.

I can only tell you, I look at everything selfishly from a ringer perspective and what we can do, prestige TV, podcasts, and the watch.

And can you just give us shows that we could talk about?

Apple was in the mix this year for us.

Like we had really from Presumed Innocent last year and several times.

I thought that was good.

Your friends and neighbors, like, they had some stuff that was like, all right, we got to get on the board.

You were not on board with the studio.

You're not on board with their 23 Emmy nominations.

No, I would.

Well, you didn't get one, though.

I did not get one.

Please don't bring that up.

By the way, it's unfair that you said I was not on board.

I watched every episode of the episode of

We did an episode of the first three episodes.

All right.

I watched all of them.

I actually thought the last couple couple episodes were really good.

I thought it was a really uneven show.

I really respected it.

I watched every minute of it.

And my problem with it ultimately was I didn't know who I was supposed to be rooting for, which might have been the answer.

Maybe nobody.

Yeah.

Like

Seth Morgan's character, it's like, I just didn't like the character.

And I was supposed to be rooting for him.

They lean heavily on the fact that Seth himself is so likable, that he can do some dumb and kind of despicable things and you're still supposed to like him.

I happen to think Seth is great and I do like him even in a role like that, but I hear your criticism.

Yeah, I just felt like they could have tilted him more.

Did you get, did you get a lot of recognition from that?

What happened?

I mean,

I want to know, did your life change?

No, my life.

Are you kidding me?

Other than people texting me, no.

And although I do get recognized, like at a Dodgers game, you went to the Dodgers game today where people just pointing at you like, hey, that's the guy from the studio.

Are you kidding me?

Not at the the Dodgers game, at like Sundance or at like the polo lounge on a Friday afternoon.

Yes, everybody knows, but people know me from the town now, too.

And from my newsletter, so it doesn't.

They know you because you work with Craig Horlbeck.

They're like, hey, that's the guy who works with Craig.

I bring Craig to movie premieres.

Nobody wants to talk to me.

They don't want to talk to him.

He's a handsome guy.

Tomorrow.

Much more personable to me.

He knows a lot about fantasy football, which I do not.

And he's got very deep movie knowledge from the Rewatchables.

He's the only 30-year-old that can quote risky business.

I know.

We're indoctrinating him in the 80s and 90s, including species this week.

He texted me about species.

He's like, I can't believe this movie existed.

Yeah, that's his reaction a lot of the time.

Yeah.

It's like, what were they thinking?

Matt Bellony, pleasure to see you as always.

We can read you in the puck on Puck News and we can listen to you.

on the town an awesome podcast produced by craig korbeck and theringer.com and theringer.com yes uh Good to see.

All right, Nate Tice is here.

We're recording on a Sunday.

He's a second-time new dad.

He works for Yahoo.

You can listen to his podcast and read him there.

He's been on this pod a few times.

First of all, how much sleep are you getting?

Are you prepared for NFL when you don't sleep?

Yeah, no, I'm okay.

Actually, like the old background of coaching and scouting kind of helped me prep for this of like...

surviving on two to four hours and a lot of coffee.

But no, we're good.

We got a good rhythm.

My wife is a champ.

That's what I'm leaving it at.

She's been an absolute champ.

I've had a nice break.

They do 95% of the work.

So I got into NFL.

I have the same process every year in the last like 10, 11 days.

Dove in, did my process,

had a good time actually doing it.

Some things jumped out to me and where I wanted to land to talk to you.

I'm not ready to have any full scale opinions yet.

The jump-a-level teams.

I want to start there because that's a good way to think about the season as a whole, each conference, who's going to move up from one level to another.

I don't want to go negative.

We'll go positive because it's sunny out here in Southern California.

It's good times, you know, not a lot of stress.

But there's three different types of teams that jump a level.

We have the playoff team to legit contender, the blah team to playoff team, and the out-of-nowh team.

which is just, they're just staples now.

Now we don't bat an eyelash when somebody like the Broncos or the Commanders or the Chargers, when they just jump five, six wins.

This is just what happens.

Which group is the hardest group for you to figure out out of those three groups?

I actually would say the playoff team to legit contender because I think that's the hardest

crap, you know, hardest tier to break into.

You know, kind of a legit Final Four team, you know, that it can make that any single year, can withstand some injuries, has a dude at quarterback or at least an offense that can roll that way, has a run game, has a defense.

And like, not a lot of teams have, can check all those boxes.

You know, we saw what the Eagles did.

The Chiefs are kind of their own thing.

They're the mid-90s Houston Rockets.

They're kind of just always, they're always their own thing.

So, but like every other team, all the Mortal teams, like, this is what you need to have.

And it's just really hard to check all those boxes of truly having a run game, truly having an explosive passing game and vice versa on defense, being able to stop.

those things on defense.

So that's the hardest one to break into because it's just, it's just hard.

It's just really hard to build that legit team.

Yeah, you're talking this little crack between the two tiers so last year the lions were the team that made the jump and that was the team i went all in on last year picked them to win the super bowl that did not happen but you know they laid the groundwork the previous year they had a really good playoff loss if you can have a good playoff loss good foundation they kept their two coordinators and it just felt like everything was lined up and you could really see it i had a little more trouble coming up with the team this year but i had four candidates and i'm going to take the next few weeks to figure it out but the four candidates I sent you, and I'll give you the conference odds on Fienduel for each of these.

But the Rams were at plus 850, had a really nice, as we look back, a really nice loss to the Eagles, right?

Kind of had the Eagles, even at the tail end, they're in the 15th round, just throwing Haymakers with the Rocky.

Jalen Carter plays away.

Two Jalen Carter plays away.

That's what it was.

But yeah, they were very close to getting them.

So there's one.

Yep.

Tampa 13 to 1 with some wide receiver injuries last year and

just were just frisky the whole time.

And they're bringing all 11 starters back on offense.

Worfs is going to be out for a couple of weeks.

So that's team number two.

The Texans, I just have to put in at 12 to 1 to win the conference just because of how good the defense was in the playoffs specifically.

And you'd think like they kind of had the year from hell in a bunch of different ways with some receiver injuries.

And, you know, they did trade tons.

So I'm not crazy about their offensive line, but that's another one.

Then

the fourth one is the one that surprised me that I included in here is the Broncos at 13 to 1.

Made the playoffs,

felt like they overachieved just to make the playoffs, had all the makings of, oh, we'll get to this year and they'll take the dip back.

There's some reasons why that might not happen.

The one team I don't have in here is Washington because I think they were officially a contender.

They made the title game.

You can't put them in there.

All right.

So Rams, Bucks, Broncos, Texans, which one did you get the most excited about?

Rams.

And it's just because they have, you know, why maybe you get excited about the Texans, the Rams kind of a version of this, where they have the great equalizer in a playoff game.

That's a pass rush.

And they have a dude at quarterback.

And they have, you know, Alaric Jackson, their left tackle, is going to be out with blood clots.

And I know you know about players on your team having blood clots and what they can do to a season.

So like, but that's, that's this one wrinkle in kind of like the theory of the Rams this year.

But Devontae Adams still has plenty left in the tank.

Like, he is still a difference maker.

But the thing is, I think Puka Nakua is not getting kind of the credit of what he actually is.

I think some people think he's a beneficiary of the offense.

Like, no kidding.

That's every top receiver is a beneficiary of the offense, but he's a legit top five receiver in this game.

He's an actual elite guy.

Now, Devontae Adams is like a 2A, you know, in this offense.

And, you know, Cooper Cup Cup is no longer there.

Cooper Cup has really fallen off and really is not the difference maker.

He's become a kind of very isolated type of player and how they have to use them.

But they drafted Terrence Ferguson.

And

he's a tight end from Oregon, really athletic.

They're going to use more tight ends.

This is where I'm envisioning this offense.

And I think it's going to be just a better version of what we've seen the last couple of years.

When this offense has been healthy, I know that's an if.

It's a big if.

They have been supernova.

Like not even not just like, oh, a top offense, like one of the better offenses we've seen in the last 20 years level of good.

And we saw it last year.

Remember the Vikings game?

I think it was a Thursday night game when they found Puka Nakua comes back and they just go crazy.

That's this is what this team could be.

So it's a fine line.

That's why the odds are what they are.

But man, they have a pass rush.

The defense is more funky than outright good, but the pass rush is good.

And so that's why I think they have a really, you know, they actually have a snowball's chance in hell to win this, this, not just division with that's really, really tough division, the IFC West, but the conference as well.

So pass rush, passing game, or run game.

That's a really good team.

Is it a tough division?

That's one of the things I'm staring at with the research.

I keep hearing how tough the NFC West is, and I'm staring at it going, eh?

It's really frisky.

It's a lot of good units.

Like, there's a lot of good defenses.

There's a lot of good run games.

Like, it's a lot to prepare for.

I don't think any of them are elite, but it's a lot of good.

Like, I think any four of those teams are playoff teams because I'm going to get to another one in a little bit, but maybe that's why I'm angling this way.

Okay, I got you.

Yeah.

So Puka,

I think he's for your, for the smart guy NFL people,

he's, he's like,

just the studying him on a Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, the blocking, all the kind of football player stuff he does.

He's whatever that weird team is, it's like the all NBA for the NFL super nerd team.

He's just, he's in there.

He's like catnip.

Adams, I'm really intrigued by with the

just being in a good situation again.

I just, I thought Rodgers was terrible last year.

I thought their offense was terrible.

The coaching was terrible.

Then you go back to Vegas where he was in that Netflix show famously just, you know, almost seeming like he didn't want to get killed.

He hasn't been in a good situation really since probably the second to last Green Bay situation.

And now he's in number two.

And if that, if they hit with that tight end, everybody's already trying to pump him up as a fantasy asset.

But

that was the thing that jumped out to me too in the NFC.

I do think there's a Bucs case, and I want to study more about how long Worfs is going to be out.

But

I don't know, that's just a team that has an identity.

I know what they are, and they have one of the best four lines in the league offense.

So we know that can block.

We know they're going to be able to move the ball.

We know they're going to be able to score.

I like the division they're in.

Schedule is going to be a little harder this year, but that's, I think it's probably one of those two teams, right?

Is there any other team?

I guess no other team even really qualifies.

Yeah, I mean, this is kind of cheating, it feels like, because of the record last year is if J.J.

McCarthy is just okay or better, the Vikings did a lot of nice things this offseason to kind of maybe shore up their volatility.

And just the offensive line and the defensive line, you know, getting Hargrave, getting

Hargrave and Jonathan Allen in there, just some real beef.

So it's just, they don't have to be as funky.

you know, on the defense.

They actually have some guys that can just win as well.

And they have some other players that are really good.

And just the offense, too.

I think this offensive line, they got Wayne got Mason from San Fran.

You know, Aaron Jones is still there.

But now they have a one-two punch.

And because they have Justin Jefferson, they get a lot of like unique looks.

Devontae Adams got these looks too, actually, which is why I think this Rams parents could be awesome.

But they get so many soft boxes that they can just pound away at them, get five, six yards, a pop.

Just like it's nothing.

And so now they finally have built a line and they got Jordan Mason to be the hammer with Aaron Jones.

And now they got a guy that can just really pound away four or five, six yards.

So the Vikings, I'm just keeping my eye on because I really, it's just McCarthy has to just be okay, 18th quarterback or better.

And this team can, you know, there's an angle here.

There's a line here that they can really make it.

I hate them from a future standpoint because.

There's no way to be right or wrong.

Who the fuck knows with McCarthy?

He's coming off a major knee injury.

He's never started an NFL game before.

And everything hinges on whether he's good or not.

And it could go any direction.

And anyone who says, like, I know how this is going to play out, like, there's no way to know.

It's 14 to 1 for a reason.

I will say that.

So, to win the IFC championship.

Yeah.

It's 14 to 1 for a reason.

Well, and they won 14 games last year before everything fell apart in the span of eight days.

We went from thinking, could this team actually win the Super Bowl?

to

all of a sudden Sam Darnold's on his way to Seattle.

Yeah.

Yeah, so that team broke my brain.

And then we go to

the other side with the Broncos and the Texans.

I personally don't think the Texans O-line.

No.

If you're in the bottom five or six with O-line, with your O-line and there's really, you can rank them any way you want, but I don't see how, I don't see a scenario where they're not in the bottom, bottom crew.

And that part worries me.

And the bigger thing, and I'm sure we'll be talking about this over the next six weeks, is what do we have with CJ Stroud?

Because it feels like we overreacted to year one.

I don't want to also overreact to year two, but he, you know, he took a major step back last year for most of the year.

And I don't know what I'm getting from him.

No, I, I, with Stroud, no, I get it.

He started actually developing a couple bad habits because of this old line, but I still really trust him because the new OC, the new coordinator is going to give him a little bit more say in the offense.

Um, the old offensive system, the, what Sloic, Bobby Sloic came from, is the Shanahan offense, which doesn't really let the quarterbacks kind of drive the wheel.

You know, they, they really kind of, you know, puts a lot of bumpers on the offense.

They put a lot on the center and the offensive system to work.

stroud is very smart like and really cerebral so i'm i'm curious how this is going to look but what you say is about the offensive line is why i'm worried too is just because it's different doesn't mean it's better um i know they had some like bad vibes but last year the guys they added so they added kenny on uh oh no they got rid of kenyon green uh but then they got ed ingram and lincoln tomlinson so kenny on green allowed the third highest pressure rate among guards last year among starting guards Ed Ingram was first and Lincoln Tomlinson was fourth.

So, you know, yeah, it's different, but it's, you know, is it really going to be any better?

Because that's what you added.

It's going to be a little bit better because of the vibes.

But again, I don't think the run game is going to be trustworthy.

But I am, I do like Stroud a lot.

Their division, that division is so wonky.

The AFC South.

And again, they have the, I think the defense is going to be really, really good because of the pass rush.

They have decent linebackers, and I think their DB room's really good.

They have Derrick Stingley or Max Overburger.

Other guys, too.

Yeah, the secondary is going to be really good.

So if they're, again, if healthy, but I think the offensive line is still going to be a weakness, even if they have a lot of different names and faces out there.

Yeah, the case for them is the defense they threw in the playoff game,

you know, and the pass rush and like there's a pass rush, secondary.

All right, I can see something there.

And they, you know, they fix the receiver room.

But then it's, you just got to think the conference they're in.

The NFC is so much easier to find value, I think, betting-wise, as we're talking about that, because it's way more wide open.

The AFC is like, you got, you know, who you got?

You got the demons at the end.

You know, you got Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, shoot, even the middle tier teams, Justin Herbert, all these guys, Joe Burrow.

So it's like, that's the AFC is just so much tougher at the top.

They already have the contender guys.

You know, that's more the middle ground that's interesting.

Well, the NFC, it's like, whoa, I think it can go any which way.

Yeah,

I did my first stab at my player rankings because it really helped me last year where I did do all the and the end.

The AFC South was just the worst of all the divisions from just the standpoint of talent.

And I was surprised.

I didn't think they would be coming in last.

But

offensive lines, Houston, Cincinnati, the Giants, Seattle, Jacksonville, and then maybe New England.

Although I think if Will Campbell's good, the New England's line might actually be okay.

So he's kind of the swing.

But those are probably the five worst plus New England if Campbell doesn't make it.

So the

other team there in the AFC,

the Broncos,

I was prepared to write them off, and they weren't going to have enough firepower, harder schedule this year.

AFC West is going to be really hard.

I don't know.

The Broncos might be good.

I find myself leaning toward them as maybe that's a playoff team that can actually make a leap up and be like, whoa, the Broncos.

Like, they kind of subtly fix some of the issues they had with the weapons standpoint.

They have to hit on both their rookies, but they have a top four line.

Their defense is good.

They spent some money on the defense and they have one of the best five coaches in the league.

So I think the case for them would be the Chiefs fall backwards.

The Chargers fall back a little bit because their schedule is going to be harder.

And then Vegas is Vegas and maybe they can climb up.

There's no chance the Broncos can win that division, right?

For you?

You just have the Chiefs penciled in forever?

Put it this way.

I think the Broncos are alive to win it, but I do think the Chiefs are better this year in the weirdest way.

So I do think it's still the Chiefs division.

What's the case for the Chiefs being better?

Let me hear it.

Uh, I actually am high on the offensive line, they added both guys.

Um, so yeah, there's I think there's gonna be some up and downness, but this is a quarterback used to that up and downness.

I also just think some of the defensive guys that they had, I think that's gonna make more sense if they're healthy on the back end.

I keep saying if they're healthy, but this is true in the NFL.

This is how you have to look at these things.

Um, but I do think that they still have the dude at quarterback, and I think Rashi Rice coming back, and now, no, I mean, suspension pending, but I do think that he is a lot better than people are giving him credit for.

And what's going to add to the explosiveness of the offense, I think maybe Travis Kelsey kind of knows his role now, too.

Kelsey was interesting last year because he's definitely dropped off as a receiver, but it was probably his best blocking year ever.

Cause he was kind of,

yeah,

he's never been a.

into blocking.

He knows how he gets paid and why, you know, why he's very famous.

But last year, he kind of knew his role.

Like it was kind of interesting, became like Robin Lopez almost.

But

he's just scrapping setting screens, you know, getting the offensive boards.

But no, that it's, I have more faith in the Chiefs this year than I did last year in the weirdest way.

And maybe it's just because I'm being lazy mentally, but I do think the Broncos are a better team.

I think this defense could be the best defense in the NFL.

And I think the Broncos added some juice with the skilled players that I really liked.

Like, I've really come around on Pat Bryant, their third round pick.

It was a little high, but I do like the pick.

And then RJ Harvey is going to add just a little bit of juice in the running back room.

Their running backs were just bad last year.

And the O-line is a top 5-0 line.

That's how you win a playoff game.

Like, I could see the Broncos being a playoff team easy, but I don't know if it, I still think it's the Chiefs to lose.

Well, you know what's funny about what you said with the Chiefs?

By the way, the Chiefs are minus 110 on Fando for the division.

Chargers plus 280.

The Broncos are plus 330, which I think is too high.

I think that should be a little closer.

But the funny thing with the Chiefs, I agreed with what you said.

I also feel like the case for them, at least from a talent standpoint, is they should probably be better because it's weird.

Last year was the year from hell for them in some ways, right?

But then they were 11-0 in one score games.

So it's like year from hell, but then also this crazy luck over and over again for the first three-fourths of the season.

And you feel like even if the one-score luck balances out, the health luck is going to flip it the other way.

That division is going to be a bitch, though.

Like Vegas was a walkover last year, and Vegas is not going to be a walkover, though.

They're going to actually be hard to play.

Yeah, Vegas is going to be so funky.

They're the ultimate knuckleball team.

Like, it just, Geno Smith is a legit quarterback, and then they have Chip Kelly, who's going to just,

I'm very excited for Chip Kelly back in the NFL and as an OC, not as an NFL.

So he can just sit in his lab and do what he wants to do.

I think it's going to be one of those.

And their defense is interesting, too.

You know, it's not, they lack a little bit of firepower along their lines, but they still have dudes.

You know, they, they, Max Crosby's a dude.

Christian Wilkins, if he's healthy, is a dude.

Um, and of course, they got Genti, their running back.

So, and Brock Bowers on offense.

So, there's, I look at them as like a

seven-win team that's going to just be really annoying because of what they do on offense and defense.

Definitely like a, what do you, what do you call it, a league pass team.

That's what the Raiders are, kind of for me.

They're a league pass team, and they're also a do not throw them the team they're playing in a three-team tease or some sort of parliament because the Raiders are plus nine and a half and somehow just beating somebody out right.

They're a stayaway for me.

I think out of those four teams, Rams, Bucks, Broncos, Texans,

I think now it's July 20th.

It could change.

We still have the training camps are going to start.

There's going to be all the stuff we learn from all the media pieces and all the coverage and the day-to-day stuff.

And like, there's so many variables.

Like Ted McMillan might come into Carolina and just be, people are just going to be like, I'm blown away.

every day this guy does something it's like it could be one of those situations like all right now I have to revise this Carolina thing if this guy's gonna be Mike Evans right away I don't know if that's gonna happen but we have or Hampton on the Chargers like the season the the preseason might start and everybody might be like this guy's incredible or the guy you mentioned on the Broncos Harvey yeah what if he's just awesome you know and we went from like as you said the bottom five running back crew in the uh in the nfl to all of a sudden they have this dude on pace for 1400 yards so we don't know yet, but these are just kind of the leans, I think.

I think those are fair.

And this year, too, just this class, there's a lot of what players consider were more good than elite, you know, a lot more green chip guys than blue chip guys.

Right.

And that's the thing is when you get a lot of that, there's a lot of variance, though.

There's a lot of guys that could rise a lot higher.

Like, the team was right in taking this guy.

So, that's where I think there's just a lot more surprises when you get that.

Like, okay, this is, you know, it's kind of just an interesting class, and especially the positions.

You know, there's a lot of running backs that can make an impact.

Caleb Johnson with the Steelers going to, it was just the whole time it was, he has to go to his own team.

He has to go to his own team.

He has, and then he goes to the Steelers who only run zone.

And it was like, okay, well, this could work.

Like even

whoever's playing at quarterback, but it's like there's at least a path there to, okay, this guy actually in this offensive system, because they have an interesting offensive line too, that they can sneak up on teams.

They can beat some of these bad teams that just can't stop the run.

And I know that sounds just so simplistic, but that's

what football is.

It's like if a team can run five yards at a time, they're not going to recall anything else.

They don't need their new quarterback to do anything.

Do you feel like there's any meat left on the bone nicks bone?

Or did what we see last year is basically what it is?

Everything's going to come down to what he can do on third down.

But this is kind of how I pictured him.

Like a lot of, he has some creativity to him.

He's a great athlete, and he's got an absolute rocket of an arm.

It's sometimes he technically will be accurate because he throws underneath a lot.

And Sean Payton did a hell of a job to kind of figure out the offense with him.

But that's the thing is he built it for his rookie quarterback.

Can he make the leap?

Usually we'll see a lot.

It all depends on third down.

I don't think there's a lot more because he's older.

And this is just how we played in college, too.

You know, a cheetah doesn't change its spots kind of thing.

Like this is the type of player he'll be.

But it's good enough to start.

It's good enough to win a playoff game, I think, because of just how they built this offense.

So, but I don't think there's as much meat as maybe the other guys of his class.

And I think that was kind of the expectation when they drafted him, too.

We're taking a break, and then we got to race through the rest of these because I really want to clear the floor for you for Timberwolf's Summer League combo.

But we're taking one break.

All right, next category is the Blah team to the playoff team.

I would describe Blah,

you're like seven and ten, you're eight and nine.

A couple things happen,

nothing memorable.

Maybe you had a bad injury, or in the Bengals case, you had just had crazy bad luck in close games.

In Miami's case, maybe your quarterback seemed like he should have to retire from football and then he didn't.

In Atlantis' case, maybe you spent a ton of money on a guy who turned out he was a corpse and then you had to bring in the next guy.

Yeah.

In the Niners' case, maybe every single thing that could have possibly gone wrong went wrong.

So our nominees, so last year was the 24 Vikings,

who

they were fine.

Nobody really had any high expectations for them.

Then, boom, they're 14 and three.

The year before, it was the 23 Lions, and the Browns made big jumps.

So, our nominees this year from this weird range, the Bengals 9-8 last year, Colts 8-9, Miami, 6-11.

That's AFC.

So, let's do AFC first.

Bengals, Colts, Miami.

Who intrigues you?

Bengals, just because the offense.

But that's of that group,

that's not like, I'm not like really excited.

uh i i'm not as i think this is what the bengals are they're in this range yeah like they are a nine-win team maybe can get to 10 but because just i there's so much just i mean they haven't signed their first round pick still uh they they're just the defense i still don't trust um i respect that why would you the defense is terrible why would you trust it and and look at the division they're in and the conference they're in again it's just that it's it's hell in the afc if you don't have at least a viable side at least a top half side on both sides you know offense and defense so it's based on how many points they can score uh you know and i do respect the offensive vision i've actually really have liked zach taylor's slash joe burrow i'm sure he has a lot of input like the changes they make year to year like i really do think everything the defenses throw at them they always find new little wrinkles even if it's a you know maybe not the most varied offense like the closest comparison is the colts and the the otts with payton manning like where he it was just like they ran their seven plays you got to stop them.

And that's kind of the level they're at right now.

But it's a lot like those Colts teams of the Ottawa.

What was their defense like?

You know, it was just based how good they are, is based on how good their defense was.

But I don't, it's just that's such a tough division and conference that it's hard to say that they can be anything more.

It's more other teams have to drop around them, if that makes sense.

I don't get the Bengals case.

It's July 20th.

I might change my mind, but I just look at

they're the guy in fantasy who spends $170 on three guys and then tries to fill out the rest of the roster with the $1 guys.

That's exactly what they do.

And after the draft, he's like, I have Chase and Higgins and Burrow.

And you're like, cool, no running backs.

It's a lot like the Saints with Breeze for a while.

And remember them in the 2010s?

He's thrown 5,000 yards, but they're winning six games.

You know,

it's a lot like that.

They're just a weirdly shaped team because they didn't hit on defense like they needed to.

Well, the combo of overpaying, well, they didn't overpay.

They properly paid their three guys, but they paid them like...

Yeah.

They paid Chase and Burrow like top five guys.

They got a slight discount on Higgins, but he's still making a lot of money.

But they're also a cheap franchise.

And so like when the Chiefs today, before we started recording, they signed Carl Aftis for like a $90 million extension.

And I've made this joke over and over again.

I'm going to keep making it.

I don't understand the NFL salary cap at all.

It doesn't seem like this isn't like the second apron where your Timberwolves have to be like, can't afford Alexander Walker who pushed us over the second apron.

There is no any apron in the NFL.

And she's just like, yeah, Carl Aftis.

We'll just keep pushing the money that way.

The Bengals don't do that at all.

Teams are starting to complain about that, though.

They saw what the Eagles are doing.

They're like, okay, okay, okay.

You guys won your title.

Let's stop this.

But

we'll see how that works.

Well,

CBA is going to fight.

Yeah.

But I look at the Bengals and I'm like, if you're going to

spend big money on three guys, you can't also then be cheap.

The other teams in that group is just hard.

Like the Dolphins are like, what are the Dolphins?

They are such a, they have an awful DB room.

Awesome front seven.

I'll say that on defense, but then on offense, it's like, I can't trust the offensive line, even if I do like pieces.

They kind of just feel like they're in an identity shift.

They keep talking about how tough and physical they're going to be, but it was like, oh no, you guys want, we're winning with a lot of speed, though.

So, like, and then the Colts, it's,

I, I, I, I, I know what Daniel Jones is, uh, even if I really like what the wrong game is going to be.

And I was, I still have a garden on Anthony Richards, Richardson Island, and and actually, I, and actually, maybe like a picket fence on Riley Leonard Island.

Like, so you own property on Anthony Richardson Island?

I do, I do, like a garden, really.

I just thought there was a chance he could be like Culpepper.

Like, you know, you got to remember what I saw when I grew up with.

So I still have a garden.

I used to have a house, but I sold it.

Here's the difference, though.

Culpepper was this big-ass dude who was actually pretty durable, at least for the first part of his career.

Yeah.

His knee exploded.

Well, then his knee exploded.

Yeah.

Yeah, yeah.

But I mean, he would take big hits and get up.

Richardson seems like he's accurate.

Well, that helps too.

But Richardson seems like it takes big hits and stays down.

Yes.

And that's what led to the turmoil last year where

his teammates were openly complaining about him.

He couldn't do that.

That's where I kind of sold.

But then he played some games where he kind of, like against the Jets, who kind of had the white flag.

But I said it's a garden.

You know, now you're making me say it's just a flower, just one plant.

One type of plant.

Thank you.

I appreciate it.

I respect it.

I think Miami has a chance to be absolutely terrible.

And I already, it's one of the only future bets I've already made was to bet the adjusted unders on them.

I don't see it at all.

What is it at?

Well, I think it moved, but I did one of the bets I did when I was in Indiana was I did,

I think I did under seven wins for them or under six wins or something, like whatever.

I think it's moved a little bit.

I also think McDaniel is in first coach fire territory.

It feels weird right now.

Yeah, it feels like, let's see how this goes.

I think their division, you know, the Pats are going to be better and the Jets might actually be like a whiff frisky.

And then you have Buffalo in there.

So I don't know.

Jets are going to be a bad team beater.

That's why I call them.

Because they have a run game and they have a defense that's going to be good too.

So it's like, and just a mentality.

So they're going to be like a bad, like, you better bring it.

Like, I can see them.

I can see what they're going to be that classic team that wins three at the end of the season.

Yeah.

And everyone's like, oh, Aaron Glenn's got him coming around as they finished 6-11.

You know, but he was one of the last three, you know, but a lot of close games.

But the Jets, the Jets run game, that whole line's pretty, pretty badass.

And they got a little run game with Justin Fields and stuff.

So, yeah, watch the Jets run game this year.

I don't see them being

a high points offense, but I see a lot of like 16 to 13, 19 to 12.

Greg Maddox starts.

10 to 9.

Yeah, yeah.

Love pass starts.

I don't really like any of those choices either for the AFC.

And by the way,

it's perfect to be like, you know what?

I don't like Bengals Colts or Miami.

Um, in the other division or the other conference, Falcons, Dallas, and uh, the Niners, Falcons were eight and nine, Dallas, seven and ten, Niners, six and eleven.

Penix to me is a follow-up to that J.J.

McCarthy point I made earlier.

Like, I just don't know.

Like, what if he's just not good?

We have no idea.

There were flashes, right?

Did you like what you saw?

Yeah, he's kind of like cutler to me, Jay Cutler, where it's the highs are high and he has a huge arm, but sometimes it's the varsity blues scene where the cowboys getting knocked off the horse.

You know, like that, it's just once in a while, you don't know where it's going.

Yeah.

And that's the thing.

So I think he's volatile, but I think the run game is going to be good.

And I think that he, he has enough highs that it's going to like, yeah, there's going to be some games where he comes alive.

But I think that defense is just going to be bad.

I don't think they're going to be able to stop the run.

So, and they play in a division with the Bucks, the Panthers, and the Saints, who all like drafted first-round linemen and invested in a run game.

So, yeah, I'm not, I'm staying away from the Falcons, even if Pennex is okay.

Niners, everybody's on.

Yeah.

Um, it's a 10 and a half.

They're hugging.

10 and a half is too high.

It's schedule-related and it's like injury luck-related.

And I get it, but I just think they lost a lot of dudes.

And, you know, from a receiver standpoint, everyone's like, well, then Ayuk will be back.

And it's like, Willie, when's he coming back?

He blew out his knee in October.

Like, we're just throwing him back in, just running up and down the field for three hours.

I'm not buying that yet.

And it's just a tough, another, you don't think so, but it's a tough division.

They have the easiest schedule in the NFL.

And man, they

I do think they're better because on defense,

I think that they went about this offseason like how they should have, not only just getting Robert Salo back in the building, but

they became really bad against the run.

They leaned into the bit a little too much.

They really wanted to be like, we're feisty.

We get upfield on the front, like, ah, ears pinned back.

But, you know, they went and signed Javon Hargrave, who I complimented for the Vikings, but for the 49ers, he just actually wasn't what they needed because he was just too risk-reward.

And they already have that with Nick Bosa, who's their dude.

But it's just kind of like, okay, all right, if we don't get him right away and get this TFL, that's a six-yard gain.

And Fred Warner has to clean it up.

And I think now, but having said all that, like, so this, the stats, and I know EPA is kind of can be a little volatile if you don't have a huge data set, but this is a nice season long.

So since 2019, the the 49ers against the run, EPA per rush, ninth, 2019, ninth in 2020, first in 2021, second in 2022, 2023, 28th, 2024, 28th.

And how they play defense is very,

they play quarters.

So it's very like, I wouldn't say soft, but it's more like, hey, we rallied to tackle.

Like we have really good linebacker and Fred Warner.

We have feisty safeties.

And I think what they did was, okay, first round pick, Michael Williams, who is going to enter the league as maybe against against the pass.

He's going to be more of a developmental guy, but he's like awesome against the run.

And so I think they ate, you know, ate their vegetables a little bit this offseason.

So I kind of like, I kind of like that on defense to really help them out because that was more of a blemish than I think people realized last year.

And I think, of course, you have Kyle Shanahan, which, so if guys are healthy, like you said with the receivers, like it's easy.

I think it's an easy nine wins, 11 wins, like the win total is, that's a little, that's a little sketchy to me.

You know, I think this is a 9-10 win team, but definitely a proved team.

Williams, 10-1 on Fanduel for Defensive Rookie of the Year.

Okay.

That one jumped out at me because he only had Abdul Carter and Jalen Walker ahead of him.

Yeah, and Carter has, they have too many dudes on the Giants defense.

You know what I mean?

So his stats might not be crazy.

Like, you know, he might be good, but yeah.

Now, I'm high on Michael Williams.

Even if, you know, he might not be a high sack guy this year, but man, this guy's going, I think, going to be a two-way against the Rodney and the pass.

Going to be a really good player down the road.

So

i i got to look at the niners more i want to find out more about iu because i don't i think they're going to have a lot of trouble throwing the ball the mccaffrey stuff has already started he's in the best shape of his life and so we get to do that

yeah so is it every the dude works out for 12 months

every year it's like oh this is the year he's came in and he's in great trimity again the blood spin you know he's getting all that i don't trust it is it cool if i don't trust it i just don't assume he's going to play for four straight ones anymore yeah yeah and that and that's what's tough I trust the run game, if that makes sense, but CMC makes the whole offense like supernova.

So it's that if you trust that, but I do think they're obviously going to be better just because they have to be.

They

faced so much bad luck last year.

Well, Bruce Salt nominees.

Yeah, Dallas.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Falcons, I just think we put to the side.

Who knows?

Dallas.

There's a pretty interesting case for Dallas, which would be fun for me because it really determines cousin Sal's mood on Sunday nights.

But, you know, they're getting some guys back, some injuries.

They had a good draft.

Dak's back.

Coaching change.

There's some signs.

Coaching change is always good.

If it's, I know people weren't that fired up about the Brian Scheinheimer thing, but, you know, when teams, people weren't fired up about Dan Quinn.

Who the F knows?

Is there a Cowboys case at all for you?

We know they have the quarterback.

They're going to be able to block.

They'll have a pass rush.

Their D-line, that whole area is among the best in the league.

Maybe?

No, definitely maybe.

I think they are definitely going to be a winning team.

You know, now this NFC is going to be wide open.

I think not only the offensive line, they drafted another guy in the first round, Tyler Booker.

So they have some real beef.

But then they also, their offensive coordinator is Clayton Adams, and they signed him from the Cardinals.

He was the offensive line coach with the Cardinals.

And I really like this because this is kind of what the Lions kind of, I'm not going to say what the Lions did outright, but it's like having a full-faith OC who's actually the O line guy.

This is actually what the Packers did.

It was maybe a bear.

So Schoenheimer is the play caller, but the OC is technically like the run game coordinator.

So I think that was actually just, if you just read between the lines, this is a commitment to what they're going to do.

And this is where Dak can really beat Dak is control the game before he's one of the best before the snap, can kind of control everything.

So you get the strong run game that, hey, you're going to play us like this because now they have George Pickens.

And I, Pickens, I didn't like for everybody, but I like George Pickens for the Cowboys because he is a great stylistic fit.

Oh, yeah.

I think he's a two.

Like, I don't think he's a true number one guy, but guess who is a number one guy?

CeeDee Lamb.

CeeDee is a slot.

He's a power, what I call a power slot.

He's best from the slot or best as a Z who is off the ball and can move around.

That's a flanker.

George Pickens is a true X.

He is on the

straight line.

Straight line.

goes and stop routes.

Dak Prescott, for better or for worse, loves throwing stop routes, which is a 10 yards or 12 yards and turnaround stop.

That's literally what it sounds like.

It's kind of an archaic route now because of how defenses play, but he likes them.

If you're accurate and you have a dude that can win, Pickens is amazing at him.

It was so I actually think that was great.

And this frees up CeeDee Lamb to move all over the formation.

So he makes sense more to the Cowboys than I thought maybe to other teams.

So I really like that fit for a few reasons.

On defense, they have the dude, Micah Parsons.

I really liked a sneaky signing they had, Jack Sanborn, who's with the Bears.

And, you know, they got faced injury at linebacker, and that's maybe they're still a little iffy against how the run.

I think they'll be okay, but they're going to be great against the pass because they're pass rush.

But Sanborn, I think, will help shore it up until Overshone comes back.

Like that, I thought that was a sneaky good signing for them, that he can end up being a decent linebacker starter, just an okay starter for them, but that's what they need.

Desperately need that right now.

Well, and they threw away their

running back position again, which I don't totally understand.

Yeah.

Yeah.

I didn't like that.

I do like the run.

It's one of those, I like, it's maybe like how the Broncos were.

I really like the run ball, the blocking and the run game, but maybe the running backs are going to be frustrating.

Guess who's who they have?

Javante Williams, who was with the Broncos last year.

Well, I don't love their,

you know, that when we do these FPI, whatever the hell the schedule thing,

I don't totally love it because I think teams change so much from year to year.

I just look at their first eight weeks.

Like they start out there at Philly in the first game of the year.

Like that sucks.

That's that's like almost a guaranteed 0-1 they have giants at home

at Chicago week three like what if Chicago is pretty good home Packers week four at Jets at Panthers and then they're at Broncos week eight so it's like you look at that and you go can you get to four and four can you be four and four coming out of that could you get to five and three or is it probably looking like a three and five so it's going to be somewhere in there and that's going to determine how they go yeah no absolutely that oh man that is a tough slate yeah i don't like it it's one of those where you look at it and go ah yeah i don't really like any of these games and even matchup wise it's not exactly ideal it's like you those are teams that can well put you said overshot and when when does he come back like it's i have no idea like

it might be like second half of the season yeah

all right let's do uh we'll make this quick the uh

the out of nowhere teams which have become more and more of a lock this we had the broncos chargers in washington this is one of the reasons i did so well last year is i nailed these last year, which makes me almost, I'm almost coming to grips with I'm going to get killed this year because I did too well last year.

But I sent you all the playoff odds, all the teams.

Give me like three that jump out to you as like a possible out-of-nowhere leap.

Again, I lean towards the NFC and there was a nice stat I got from NFL research this week.

It was, I think we were at 35 straight years.

So since 1990, that four teams that didn't make the playoffs made the playoffs the next year.

We're at 35 straight years.

I always tried to do three in each conference.

Last year, there were only four total that flipped.

Usually it's six.

Okay.

And you usually have to just try to figure out the six.

The math.

Yeah.

Yeah.

That's why I just keep looking at the NFC because I just think it's so up and down based on the quarterbacks.

You've already talked about some of the young guys.

It's like, you know, the Packers could be a good team, but like I look at the Cardinals

as the first team that comes to mind for this exercise because not only just because I like their offense, but I really, really, really intrigued by their defense.

They faced the fifth easiest schedule.

Again, we know how that can change and everything.

I think the offense, I know what it is.

I don't think it can maybe get to that top five, but I think this could be a top 12, top 10 unit with a good run game, explosive offense.

The big thing for me is I don't know who can take the top off.

So it might maybe feel a little tight.

They got to expand Marvin Harrison Jr.'s role.

So, but I trust the offense in the weirdest way.

And even if Skyler Murray can be up and down, he was better last year.

That was one of his most, that was his most consistent season ever.

So if they can just even get that.

But the defense, this defense last year was the 10th best defense in the EPA over the second half of the season.

It coincided with a lot of guys coming back from injury.

They had the fourth most Justin Adams loss according to what's now FTN fantasy, which used to be football

outsiders guys, but those guys, but they were 10th in the second half of the season.

They had the sixth highest pressure rate in the second half of the season.

They got Baron Browning.

They added a whole bunch of new faces on defense, like real talent,

draft and free agency.

They get guys coming back from injury, like B.J.

O'Jalari, who missed his second year, but had a solid rookie year.

Signed Josh Swede, Dalvin Tomlinson, drafted Walter Nolan in the first round.

So they added real talent, and they were a top, again, top 10 defense without this talent last year.

The Cardinals, I think, are going to be at the very least frisky and a team that I think there was one plus 125 on the odds that you sent sent me.

Yeah,

they've been one of the most bet teams during the offseason.

Secrets out.

This was a lot more fun taking May

than it is right now in July.

Well, counter.

Can I counter?

Yeah, absolutely.

Who are the blue chippers on this team for you?

Trey McBride.

Right tight end.

There's one.

Paris Johnson Jr., left tackle.

Okay.

Buddha Baker, safety.

I would even say they have another safety, Jalen Thompson, who is like borderline.

But I agree with, I know where you're going with this.

It's a lot more green and yellow,

more like above average to good.

Yeah, that's what when I did all my preliminary rankings,

I had those, I had Johnson, Harrison, McBride, and Baker, and Harrison's barely.

I mean, he certainly didn't earn it last year.

We're going more of a

college pedigree, right?

Yeah.

No, he's going to be, he's just like his dad.

It's crazy.

Like, it's, he's literally a bigger.

I think he's just like his dad.

No, yeah.

Yeah.

Who?

No, I don't know.

No, but I do think that they were trying to make him a true ex, like I talked about with Pickens.

He's not that.

He's a route runner.

He's a guy that has to move around the formation.

And so I think they pigeonholed him in the first half of the season.

And I think they're figuring out a little bit, but

they need to do it.

It's one of those I have to see.

Like in theory, it's like, yeah, they can do it, but it's like, I still have to see it.

There were games where you didn't even know he was playing.

It was one of of those.

It was like Brasilo's Tobias Harris joke.

It was like, hey, there's Martin Harrison.

I didn't realize he was out there the last two hours.

No, he had some empty games.

They faced, I talked about that cover two stuff.

He was getting the respect of that already.

But then I was kind of disappointed in the Cardinals' passing game to go like, okay, open them up.

Like, you're getting these cover two looks.

All right, move them to the slot.

I don't know.

You know, so it's one of those I want to see this year.

But if they, if they figure it out, they got a lot of good pieces, I do think.

They had that stretch.

I think they won four straight.

We got all excited about them, and they were overachieving, and then they just fucking cratered.

Oh, I mean, it was a cratering, and they lost that Carolina game.

Yeah, yeah, Carolina.

Oh, the Carolina game was brutal.

Yeah, so I don't know.

I just

don't trust Kyler Murray at all.

I do not have them marked down.

Maybe I'll change my mind as I keep reading the newspaper stuff.

All right, give me your second one.

Uh, second one, or uh, where are my notes there?

Oh, okay.

Second one, uh, was the Bears.

Uh, I found Popular case.

I'm going to dig in.

I know.

Again, I do believe in Ben Johnson.

I believe in coaches that don't blink.

I think he is very, very detailed.

And I think he's working with a quarterback that is more detailed than people are giving him credit for.

I think we've talked about this before.

But I like the O-Lion editions.

Joe Tooney is a top-five guard.

He is.

Joe Tooney played tackle at the end of last year with the Chiefs.

It was bad.

But

it was very unfair.

The thing with the Bears is for years, and I would say since Olin Kreutz basically retired, so over a decade ago, they have had just a hole at center.

And it's really helped or helped cripple their quarterbacks, their young quarterbacks.

I'm a big believer in having a solid center at the very least to take the load off a young quarterback.

They went and got, they kind of overpaid it a little bit.

They got Drew Dahlman.

But Drew Dahlman, at the very least, is a top half center in this league, a top 10 center in this league.

He has to be specific.

They have to use a lot of zone, but they're now working with a play caller that runs a lot of zone.

And Ben Johnson.

And I think it works with the quarterback because they're going to do more boot and more play action and more movement to their offense.

There's a lot more on this, more than just, ooh, good play caller from good offense goes to offense with quarterback.

It's more than that.

There's a lot of stylistic fits that make sense here.

Caleb was a really good quick game and

screen thrower because he's so creative and can throw sidearm and throw all these funky throws.

Ben Johnson calls a lot of receiver screens.

Like that, that's one of the sneaky parts about this line's offense.

I'm on Russell Brown was getting so many receiver screens.

Khalif Raymond, even Jameson Williams, all these guys.

Now they get with DJ Moore, who's awesome on receiver screens.

Roman Dunes is great on receiver screens.

Even the tight end Colson Loveland's great on little outside receiver screens.

So

I'm digging it.

I finally am actually like kind of buying the hype.

I was not hyped last year.

I saw the holes in the line.

I'm like,

this might not go great.

I know who the play caller is.

I know how this old line is.

This might not go great.

This year, I'm actually buying it because of Dahlman of Tooney, even Ozzy Trapillo, who they drafted on day two.

There's just a lot that makes sense stylistically.

And I like the defense.

Having said that, they face a third-hardest schedule.

So

that's a little bit of the part of this, but I do believe in what I saw from the flashes of Caleb Williams, even though I think a lot of people are low on him right now.

I think this is going to work.

The offensive line stuff's real.

I mean, I was doing, and shout out to Brandon Thorne because because I like when he does his rankings, but he did a good job.

There's a couple other things, you know,

the ones that really watch it and study it.

You just got to trust them because I'm not going to be able to know who the good right guard is and whatever.

But it really looks like they have a top nine or 10 offensive line now.

And that was the reason last year fell apart among the, you know, it was the coaching and the offensive line.

They fixed the coaching.

They're going to be able to block.

They have weapons.

They spent money.

Defense should be okay.

You know,

is Caleb good?

I think is going to be what we find out.

Because I do feel like, I just think Drake May is a safer bet than Caleb

as long as he can avoid these big hits that he was taking last year.

But I just think

you're not a bug with Drake.

Just go out of bounds.

Don't put your head down.

You're in the NFL.

You're not in the ACC anymore.

Just go out of bounds.

It's fine.

But yeah, I see the case for the Bears, but I think it's a pretty popular one.

If you had to pick an AFC team, who would you pick?

AFC out of nowhere.

Oh, AFC out of nowhere?

Oh, man.

I had, I think I wrote one down.

Just say the Pats.

Come on.

Yeah, it was the Patriots, wasn't it?

It was the Patriots.

Yeah.

I think I texted you this, but.

What's cool about Will Campbell is

I think his floor is just so high that no matter what, he's a best five enabler, which means no matter what, the Patriots have their best five offensive linemen out there because he can play, I think, all five spots.

And there's something to that.

Like that, that is something that is really beneficial to an offense.

He's also a high IQ guy

because he was calling out blitzes last year as a left tackle, a true junior left tackle, just stuff like that.

Just little things you see on tape, true leader type.

Like not only that, they got Garrett Bradbury, who was iffy last year.

He gave up a lot of pressure last year with the Vikings.

But I did like their third-round pick.

I like Jared Wilson

from Georgia.

I thought he's more of a big athlete, different than what you usually see at center, but he really took to it.

Like he's a guy I was really high on this draft process.

So I actually, and I like that he doesn't necessarily have to start right away, but I do think I really like the upside of what he can become.

And again, I talk about having a good center quarterback pairing.

I think that's paramount to a good offense.

So yeah,

of of course I just have to talk about the offensive line, but that's because where the success is going to come from.

And then I think about it though, last year they had a zero out of 10 coaching staff and they had a zero out of 10 offensive line.

So if you're going just 20 points for those two units, they get a zero.

And now maybe Rabel, maybe he can be like a seven or an eight out of 10 and maybe the offensive line can be a four.

And so that's got to be worth like four wins.

There's something to like people always think you have to go from shit to like great.

There's something from just going to shit to not shit, you know, from a zero to a four,

a one to a five, or a six.

Like that, you can get a huge.

I was just talking about the Bears.

Drew Dahlman just has to be above average, and it's like four tiers better center play than the Bears have had in years.

But same with the Patriots, but it's just their entire offensive line.

And Cole Strange is coming back.

Cole Strange has had moments and stretches where he

looks like a good starter.

It's just that it's just been few and far between with injuries and stuff.

So yeah.

Well, I'm already

with the Pats.

You like the Cowboys?

Where are they at now?

Seven and a half?

Eight and a half?

The Pats are like in the plus 156 range to make the playoffs, which seems way too low.

Cowboys are plus 186.

You also, like, when you talk about this exercise, and I'm going to be talking about it a bunch on this podcast, but you almost like, it's like a nightclub.

Somebody's got to come out to bring the new person in, right?

So to me, if the Bears are going to get in there, Green Bay has to leave.

Right.

Green Bay, that's the spot.

You know, for Arizona,

it's probably the Minnesota spot if they're going to grab one of them, right?

Because I think we both think the Rams are going to be.

We just pumped up the Rams, too.

Yeah, exactly.

And it's like, all right.

And then we just pumped up the 49ers as well.

So it's who is not making it.

I know.

And that's what's

more bullish on the Seahawks, too, more than most people are, too.

I will say.

Oh,

make the case because I do feel like their over-under seems at least a win too low.

And I thought Sam Darnold versus Geno seems like sideways, right?

Yeah, I do too.

Year two of the coach.

I thought they had a really good draft.

I thought they had one of the four or five best drafts, right?

Yep, I agree.

And I think their defense is going to be like legit, legit.

McDonald's defense usually takes a minute to click.

And because just because it's so varied,

they run a lot of a lot.

People say, oh, you got to copy the McDonald's scheme.

It's like, well.

That means you're running everything.

But no, they shored up once they got Ernest Jones last year.

Their linebacker play got better.

Their defensive front is going to be really good.

They got a lot of different body types, too.

They got gap shooters, pluggers.

Leonard Williams really came along, who they traded for last year, but they have a lot of talent up front.

But also, they have really talented DBs.

Devon Wetherspoon is all-pro worthy in the slot, and he's going to get weaponized in this defense.

But I agree with you.

I think Darnold is a sidestep because I think the offense's floor is going to be higher.

They put a lot on Gino last year with a play caller that seemed to be in over his head, as it turned out.

Now they get Kubiak, and I think that offense, they're going to run a lot of zone, a lot of boots.

Darnold's fine in that, and he'll bring some highs to the offense because he's going to go for it.

He's hell or high water.

He'll bring some lows too.

But I think that's kind of part of the offense.

You know what I mean?

We're going to lean on the defense, have a zone run game, and have some volatility with our pass game, but we'll live with it.

I'm, yeah, I'm higher on them.

They, they cut Noah Fant today, which was interesting, but I still like A.J.

Barner a lot, their tight end, and the guy they drafted Elijah Arroyo.

But no, I'm higher on them than most because I think that defense is going to be pretty, pretty good.

And I think the offense is going to be better than people anticipate.

They drafted, I keep going and going, sorry, but Grey Zabelle at guard.

I like Ola Wilawatimi at center.

I like Charles Cross, the left tackle.

And again, going from shit to not shit.

Not saying this is going to be a top five offensive line, but a zone boot offense helps the offensive line.

So they could be like 18th or 20th.

And I think that I see a vision here.

Like, I think a higher vision than maybe others do.

Two good drafts in a row, which is always, I like their draft last year.

I thought they got a couple good guys out of that.

So yeah, there's,

I would, I personally like the Seattle case more than the Arizona case, but this is why we have all this time to think about it.

All right.

That's what a month ago.

We left just enough time.

We left just enough time for the Minnesota Timberwolves and the buzz already starting that they got to do well this year.

Anthony Edwards is going to start looking around.

God,

why do we have to do this with the NBA?

I never understand it.

It's ridiculous.

Can't we just have good things?

He likes Minnesota.

The team's good.

They made the conference finals two years in a row.

What are we doing?

Yeah.

Yeah.

Dean Moore covers the Wolves, does a great job.

He laid it all out.

He's like,

no one can make more money than Anthony Edwards if he stays the Temple Wolf

ever.

Because he was a number one pick and he's already made

all NBA teams.

And so, you know, it can hit a higher number.

He's not going anywhere.

Have we looked at the youth of this team?

I mean, the summer league squad was like, that was a lot of fun to watch when you have some legit NBA guys out there as opposed to like Tyus Jones is your best player.

You know, it was like, you know, TJ Shannon was way too good out there.

And you can see Edwards was at every game and he was hyped up for all the guys and stuff.

And yeah, he's not going anywhere.

I don't think.

Well, you know what else you have coming this year, which I'm really excited about?

The full bringing Garnett back into the fold.

Yes.

Because that's been one of the big tragedies.

He hated Glenn Taylor.

There were real reasons for it.

All he wanted to do was be a big part of the Minnesota Timberwolves, but he was going to wait until, so now you're going to bring, they'll retire his number this year.

I don't know.

The vibes are good.

And by the way, you made the conference finals two years in a row.

Right.

The team's doing well.

Things are things are okay.

Yeah.

And shooting the Joan Beringer, who I admit, I watched five minutes of before the draft.

The highlights were good.

Oh, my goodness.

He's second youngest player in the draft, which is is always going to get me going.

But he catches everything.

Like, I'm, I'm pretty astounded by him.

Like, I, I, I, he moves like a star.

And I know I'm getting way ahead of myself.

Five summer league games, four and four and a half.

He was very fluid.

I, I, I, very fluid.

I saw him.

Yeah.

It was, it's something, there's something there.

Like, he catches, he has a good feel for space.

He's stronger than he's not just this lanky athlete.

A little French connection with Gobert.

Yeah.

Obviously, Gobert learned from him.

Kind of tipped him off.

Yeah, I know.

It's, uh, I, I was pleasantly surprised by his summer league.

What do you get from Dillingham, though?

Like, how does this Dillingham thing work?

Because I mean, I thought the offseason was a miracle that you got to keep Nas Reed and Randall.

I didn't think that in February, that seemed impossible to me.

I didn't understand what was going to happen with the lack of a market and how all these guys are basically screwed.

But just to keep, it seemed like you're going to keep one of those three and you kept two of the three.

You lost Alexander Walker, which is the easiest guy to replace.

But Dillingham now has to be good next year, or at least as a bench guy.

It was interesting, and I talked to Rob Moore again about this, but he, or Damo, I'm sorry, he had a point that he brought up then, the Summer League is they use Dillingham in a different role each game.

Okay, you're the primary creator in this game, you're off-ball in this game.

And some of that was how the defenses were playing.

But it was a really interesting.

I thought his best game was when he was off-ball

and as opposed to a primary creator.

And I thought that was

slashing and then making the extra pass.

I thought, you know, what's really nice too is he can shoot off the bounce.

And that's huge because of how he wants to play.

He's a great oop thrower as well, which is something Ant is very weirdly iffy at.

But that helps as well.

It just opens up that part of the offense.

He is not my cup of tea usually at my types of players.

Dribble heavy, undersized.

That's not usually what I prefer.

But the thing is, is they have a good size on the team to insulate that.

there's not three of these undersized guys.

Everybody else is jumbo on the Timberwolves at their position.

So I do like that fit with it.

I just think he's going to take some time and he needs, he needs to play.

He has to figure out what he can and can't get away with.

But this is a team that wants to make a run.

So

that's the balance that I think Finch has to

be trade bait.

TJ Shannon being legit is making.

everything feel a lot better to me at least.

I think he's going to really be a really nice player.

The Conley piece is the piece that, unfortunately, you're in the same boat that the Celtics were in with Horford last year, where it can look good in the regular season, especially if he's only playing two games a week.

But once you get in that playoff grind and you're playing every other day, and in his case, you have to go through OKC, the most frightening team of all time, if you're a guard, and he's going to be 38 next year.

It's just not, you're just not beating OKC if he's playing big minutes.

And it's terrifying when he's out there.

You can feel it's NBA playoff basketball, and it's really nice to have a team to watch again

throughout it.

It's so crazy.

And this is what the NFL is week to week.

We talk about matchups, but it's so crazy in NBA when you just feel a guy getting picked on because it's so open in the NBA.

It's five on five.

So you know who's getting isolated, who's getting picked, who has to, they're making switch onto the ball.

What's the NFL equivalent of that?

Running at a guy.

Like if the guy can't hold up against the run and you just like an undersized linebacker, an undersized D Anderson.

He's a good player like, you know, like Bryce Huff or Hassan Reddick, really good against the pass, but it's like, okay, well, you're undersized.

We'll just run a tight end and a right tackle at you over and over again.

And we'll get six yards.

That's kind of what it is.

Or man-to-man coverage and a guy can't guy just can't keep up with the other dude.

That's what the NFL is, like the best coaches.

It's just like, you watch.

Yeah, you talk about Sean McVay and what Kyle Shanahan do, Sean Payton, Andy Reid, and they do all the the motion and stuff.

All they're doing is manipulating the defense to get into a certain look so this guy is exposed or this defense is exposed.

And it's just, you know, same thing in the NBA.

You see all the picks and switches and all that.

It's like, oh, they're just trying to get this guy isolated 25 feet out.

So it's fun to watch.

Like I'm trying to get more into NBA tactics.

I'm picking it up a little bit.

Well, everyone was so freaking hunt-heavy that,

you know, it was interesting to watch that OKC Indiana series when,

you know,

there was just so much movement at all times.

It was, it was like this level above hunting.

It was pretty cool.

And then, of course, Halberton blows out its Achilles.

Game seven falls apart.

All right.

Great series.

By the way, before we go, what's the thing you're, the single thing you're most excited about with this 2025 NFL season as you dive into the things?

What's your number one thing?

Oh, man.

All the second-year quarterbacks.

That's cheating, but all of them, because I think every story of them is going to be significant.

Can commanders stay up top?

What is Caleb Williams?

I'm high on him.

What's Drake May?

I'm super high on him.

Can Bo Nix improve?

Can Michael Pennix be anything?

What is J.J.

McCarthy?

Because I think all those teams

can make noise

in some way, shape, or form.

So I think that's my cheating answer.

But yeah, the second year QBs, there's a changing of the guard happening right now.

We're feeling it with Mahomes and Allen and

Lamar and Burrow and all these guys.

There's more coming.

We got some real talented dudes coming through, and I'm excited to see them all take a leap.

Well, and then this draft next year.

Um, I did my, yeah, yeah, Jesus, I did my QB rankings, and I moved Mahomes out of the alpha spot for the first time this decade, and I put Josh Allen in there.

Okay, I love Josh Allen.

One guy has to get the highest thing, and I'm just like, I just think, listen, whatever.

I'm not going to do a 40-minute Mahomes conference.

I just think Josh Allen's the safest bet at a quarterback in the NFL right now.

And I think he has to be the alpha.

It's right.

I think there's a three-man tier with Lamar Allen and Mahomes.

I agree.

But if you have to pick one,

I have Mahomes in two minutes, man.

I'm just talking regular season.

Regular season.

Yeah, Josh Allen's a force of nature because it's just he has to be the regular season alpha at this point.

Man,

yeah, just because the Bills offense is better.

That's what it just looks like.

He's fake.

Like Mahomes is fake, but Josh Allen's actually fake.

Like he's a creative player.

He's with

Cam Doton, Cam Newton times two to me because I think even just throwing wise, he's doing even more.

But yeah, no, I think Allen is, to me, is the clear two.

I still have Mahomes just because of respect of what he does.

But I think Allen is the clear two to me.

I mean, that's why he's defending MVP.

One of the great Allen stats was that the

14 sacks for Buffalo last year.

Yeah.

Like,

it should just get factored into your QB stats somehow.

That was always a great Brady Manning stat.

He gets kind of, I kind of have been really fighting this with Josh Allen and trying to like support him here.

He's become one of the most cerebral quarterbacks in the NFL, and he doesn't get any credit for it because he's just such a freak athletically.

But he has become one of, I talk about C.J.

Stroud getting more control before the snap.

Allen's gotten that the last two or three years, and he is great at it.

It's just that he doesn't get painted that way.

Burrow kind of gets it painted this way.

You know, some other guys do.

Allen doesn't get painted this way, and he's one of of the best at it.

He calls out blitzes, he changes protections.

I got reels of it on Twitter, but it's just he has become like a complete guy outside of just the freakiness.

And I think that even Mahomes, too, all these top guys are very cerebral, but I think Alan kind of gets really underrated with that.

Like he's one of the smartest QBs, and he gets full control.

And then he just is a 0.0001% athlete on top of it, which also helps.

Alan, then I had the next group: Allen, the Alpha, the Blues, Mahomes, Burrow, Jackson.

I put Daniels in there.

I think he has to be.

You got to see one more?

So you would never have to.

I got to see one more year.

He's top 12, I would say to me.

I got to see it a little bit more.

Well, this is why it's a work in progress.

I'm glad I asked you.

Yeah.

No, and then I'm high on Jordan Love more than most people.

I think his, he played banged up last year.

He doesn't take sacks.

He can hit all that high throws.

I'm high on the Packers, too.

And I never even talked about him because I really liked Love and some of the other stuff they did.

So I'm super high on him.

I had some other guys pretty high.

I had Stroud at 10 because

I think he's going to have a decent year, even with the Line stuff.

I just think they're going to give him more control.

And I like the receivers.

I like the couple of guys they drafted and everything.

Are you pro, anti, or in the middle with Purdy?

I'm in the middle.

I've said I'm brock gnostic.

I've been agnostic, but I've like him more than I used to.

Last year was really cool to watch him kind of like they gave him more to do.

They uh they don't use play action as much and they let him just truly drop back and be a quarterback and like go and progress.

And it's kind of cool to watch them kind of give him the reins to do it.

So like I've become more and he can create a little bit.

He's a really good thrower on the move.

I used to be kind of lukewarm on Purdy, but now I like him.

Like I

like him and enjoy watching him because he's got some balls on him too.

25 to 1 for MVP.

Your guy Jordan Love is 25 to 1 as well.

Okay.

Yeah.

But odds are it's going to be Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson.

Just put those bets in now.

All right.

Nate Tice, go back to your newborn baby and your other child and your wife and Tim Bloom, Summer League highlights.

Thank you.

Anthony Andrews is staying.

Kevin Garnett's coming back.

Football's coming.

Things are looking up.

Great to see you.

Thanks for coming on.

Thanks for having me.

Always fun.

All right.

That's it for the podcast.

Thanks to Nate Tice and Matt Bellany.

Don't forget new rewatchables is coming on Monday.

Species, a movie that you can find on streaming services.

We're going to really ramp up in August.

I'm just warning you now.

I'm getting all my little ones, little dopey movies I wanted to do out of the way in July because it's time to do it.

But we have some really good ones coming up as we head to 400 movies on the rewatchables.

Yeah, we're getting close.

I'm going to be back again on Sunday, a week from now.

So we are sticking to the Sunday schedule, and that's the plan.

And I'll see you in a week.

Enjoy the week.

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