Five NBA Trade Ideas, a Sleeper NFL Playoff Team, Eagles-Packers, and Week 10 Picks With Joe House

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Speaker 1 Coming up today, so House is going to come on, on, as always, on Thursdays to do NFL pick, but picks. But

Speaker 1 Picasso had to go into the art studio and do some trade machine work. There's a lot of unhappy teams.
I don't know what's going on with John Morant.

Speaker 1 Even though it is November 6th, it's feeling very trade wiffy. So we are going to make up some fake trades.
Well, I made up some fake trades.

Speaker 1 I'm going to throw them at house and then we're going to talk about the NFL slate, Ringer 107.

Speaker 1 Complicated week. It's all next.
We're going to take a break. Then Pearl Joe.
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Speaker 1 All right, we're recording mid-afternoon East Coast time. I'm on the East Coast, went to the Celtics game yesterday.
Joe House is here. We're gonna talk NFL a little bit later.
A lot of stuff.

Speaker 1 This is a good House Simmons pod because it's just NBA NFL, just a vortex. I went to the Celtic game last night.
I saw your terrible wizards team.

Speaker 1 Not that the Celtics were much better. And,

Speaker 1 you know, the trade machine Picasso has

Speaker 1 definitely bought a Ziesel and bought some paint and bought some brushes once the John Morant news happened. But going to that Celtic game yesterday,

Speaker 1 the wheels started turning. I don't really know what the point of this Celtic season is.
I don't mean to be a dick.

Speaker 1 It's fine. Jalen Brown's good.
Derek White's good. Simons is okay.
Pritchard is okay. Kate has

Speaker 1 been fun. He's a double, double guy.
You won money on that yesterday.

Speaker 1 But it's probably a below 500 team. And the question is, what's the point? And if Tatum is going to be out, maybe

Speaker 1 with this legendary draft class, maybe you start audibling. And that got me thinking about Tradeshouse.

Speaker 1 And here's the problem: really hard to make trades this year.

Speaker 1 The new CBA,

Speaker 1 first apron, second apron.

Speaker 1 Big contracts, teams that just like

Speaker 1 we can't take more money. It's actually against the rules for us to add even $1.

Speaker 1 Is this good? Because I was arguing with Bobby Marks about this today, Texas. Bobby Marks, like the league is, he said this on ESPN.
The league's in better shape. This is all good.

Speaker 1 We have like a better balance now i feel like a lot of teams are stuck with who they are what do you see well you have to def define good what what goal are you seeking to

Speaker 2 achieve with the parody that is the the the world that we live in right now i mean if you're adam sober what's your goal or like the league what do you think their goal was you think it was just parody across the board and no high payrolls and that's it yes yes Parody above all else.

Speaker 2 Not that dissimilar from the NFL, where a team like Washington can be really bad for a number of years, luck into something in a lottery,

Speaker 2 in a draft, get a franchise-changing quarterback, and then make it to the NFC championship game.

Speaker 2 Or a team like New England, which has been bad for four or five years, gets a great addition in a draft.

Speaker 2 And all of a sudden, New England, not just a playoff threat, but potentially, you know, it's okay for the good

Speaker 2 to dream. Let me hear it.

Speaker 1 If you get your quarterback, you can still spend money around him and you can still push money forward into the future and pay for shit. You can do what KC has done.

Speaker 1 And like Casey was trying to trade for Brees Hall at the trade deadline. How do they have money to do anything?

Speaker 1 I look at some of these basketball teams and I like the Knicks and Cleveland are the two best teams in the East.

Speaker 1 They also can't make any sort of trade that would improve whatever situation they have now, which maybe that's a good thing. I don't know.

Speaker 2 They made the trades. I mean, the Knicks made, you know, four trades, five trades, like

Speaker 2 franchise altering,

Speaker 2 Mikhail Bridges,

Speaker 2 cat, you know, acquiring Brunson, stealing Brunson away from the Mavericks, and, you know,

Speaker 2 convincing Brunson to take an undermarket deal. Like, that's how you build up a nucleus that's competitive.

Speaker 1 Um, most teams have not done that, and also the way they sprung these rules where instead of saying these are going to start three years from now, they just kind of

Speaker 1 jump-started it.

Speaker 1 And I, I just look around, and it's not just that I see teams that are probably upset about where they are, kind of stuck with their roster, whatever, but I also don't see a lot of options for fixing it.

Speaker 1 And that's what's that's what I don't remember before.

Speaker 2 What needs fixing? Like, you don't like the way that

Speaker 2 the West lines up competitively with Houston, Denver.

Speaker 2 Houston is a point city.

Speaker 2 They can still get that point guard. They have an asset in the form of Frame of Leeds contract sitting right there for a team that has guards.

Speaker 1 The problem is the guards are either really expensive or not quite expensive enough.

Speaker 1 That's a complaint about a guy getting hurt, which happens, you know, in the NBA and the NFL and everywhere else but one of the but one of the things i was looking at is like the lakers really just can't trade lebron he is no trade clause anyway but even if they decided you know what we're having a better time without you you don't really want to be here anymore because it's luca's team now let's figure this out there's nowhere for him to go

Speaker 1 like he he can't go to the knicks he can't go to cleveland because of the rules um and then i look at some of the other guys that are already available like morant

Speaker 1 i'm assuming tray you've been on this hawks thing you you love the Tuesday game when they look great without Trey Young. And it was like a little, hey, look at us.
Look how long and happy. And

Speaker 1 you were in on that.

Speaker 2 It wasn't me. It's just, you know, I wish that we had gambled on the over-under of when the first story is about, hey, we kind of have a chemistry here without Trey Young.
Oh, it's so interesting.

Speaker 1 We still love Trey, but it's interesting that we can also play without him.

Speaker 2 Yeah, you knew that story was coming. I mean, the first one hit immediately after that Orlando Orlando game.
I loved it so much.

Speaker 1 So you seem like you like these new rules more than I do. I wish there was some sort of hybrid version of both of them.
Like I look at, for instance, your team has C.J.

Speaker 1 McCollum and Chris Middleton, who I got to watch in person last night. And Middleton, whatever life he's leading this year is just the ideal life.
He's making like 33 million.

Speaker 1 He kind of jogs around, takes a couple of threes, pats some dudes on the back. And I guess they're just going to buy him out in February, but they can't really trade him.
They can't trade McCollum.

Speaker 1 McCollum's a guy that, you know, is still a good offensive player. He's going to be on the team and get bought out in February because nobody's going to trade for him.
And I don't know if that's,

Speaker 1 I don't know if that's a good CBA,

Speaker 1 if you have situations like that.

Speaker 2 Yeah, don't, don't, don't

Speaker 2 fill in the blanks. I like a version of the NBA where trades are possible.
I mean, we've been living, you and I, I'm nobody better than you, but I've enjoyed it along the way as well.

Speaker 2 25, 30 years of imagining trades

Speaker 2 to improve teams along the way, along, you know, on the fly. And quite a bit of the way that I've enjoyed the NBA over the years is getting through the first month of the season.

Speaker 2 Okay, now that we have that under our belts, let's really sort of start seeing what kind of moves can be made, what kind of stuff is out there, how can teams get better? Who's excited about that?

Speaker 2 Now we're two weeks in.

Speaker 1 Now it's two weeks in. It's like eight teams that would immediately make a trade if they could.

Speaker 2 But if you can't make the trade, then that's not a good version of the nba in in my humble opinion the trades are an elemental part because you know this this version of the nba

Speaker 2 um as has been talked about sort of ad nauseum over the last 12 months people don't watch the nba like i'm watching the games and then i'm going to talk about the games afterwards everybody's already in some conversation where the games are secondary to the ongoing narrative of of of the league the the the games give us some some color for us to to talk about.

Speaker 2 Like, how about the Chicago effing Bulls? How about Josh effing Giddy?

Speaker 2 That's great stuff.

Speaker 2 But it's not crucial that I sit and watch the Bulls from the beginning of the game to the end of the game. I don't have to watch the game at all.

Speaker 1 Well, so like baseball, my team needs a left-handed reliever. Let's just go get one.
And then you go get one, right?

Speaker 1 Football,

Speaker 1 even though the cap seems pretty prohibitive, it seems like teams can always kind of figure out how to add somebody if they really want somebody, right? The Colts really wanted a cornerback.

Speaker 1 Yeah, fuck it. Let's go get one.

Speaker 1 Basketball has lost a little bit of that, and yet I did find five trades that I really liked. I did not send these to you.

Speaker 2 I knew you did. I knew it.
I knew it.

Speaker 1 Well, two of them have John Morant.

Speaker 1 Great. And the first one's pretty chalk.
I think this one's probably floated around, but it's Miami and Memphis. You send Ja to Miami.
You put KCP in the deal. Memphis takes back Hero and Rogier.

Speaker 1 And you just call it a day. And Memphis basically turns

Speaker 1 Ja into Hero, and Rogier is expiring. Miami has to take on an extra year at KCP.

Speaker 1 They get Ja. They roll the dice that Ja can be turned into a superstar again.

Speaker 1 I thought the Durant stuff on court that got captured by video last night when he was going back and forth with Ja's dad and he's like, your guy doesn't even want to be here past the weekend.

Speaker 1 And when the players are talking like that, that tells me this is a rep.

Speaker 1 And there's really not a lot of spots for John. I also don't really know what his trade value is at this point with all the issues he's had and the lack of durability.

Speaker 1 Like, if you told me that two years ago, it looks like, well, Miami's got to throw in three firsts and two swaps. It's like, I don't think they have to throw in anything.

Speaker 1 I think just getting Hero for Ja might be enough if you're Memphis, right?

Speaker 2 It has to be that way. I mean, what reasonable expectation does Memphis already hit its draft draft pick lottery with the Bain trade? And what they touch, what that creates for them.

Speaker 2 I don't really blame Bain, to be honest with you.

Speaker 1 I see it. I'm just asking if you saw his stats.

Speaker 2 The man's out on an island. It's not good.

Speaker 2 It's not good. It's a rough one.
Anyway, go ahead. Well, I like this.
So

Speaker 2 the reason that Morant is, you know, a damaged goods proposition is because

Speaker 2 what situation is going to work for him where he will come

Speaker 2 and play grown up like he's not he won't be a grown-up in memphis memphis is a situation that i think you know that it's run by adults i i've always uh respected the acumen of the front office i've respected the what they put in charge of of coaching and so he couldn't make it work there okay

Speaker 2 so what are the situations where it might work you can cross off literally two-thirds maybe three-quarters of the league, just cross it off. Like, there is not a world

Speaker 2 anywhere near the universe, the Milky Way we live in, where he could come to a place like Washington and that would be a successful kind of situation. No, I mean, that is so,

Speaker 1 I think it's actually illegal in the cap for you guys to trade for anyone who's had some sort of gun incident in the past.

Speaker 2 I don't think we've served the 50-year sentence yet.

Speaker 1 No, I'm just

Speaker 2 still feels too soon.

Speaker 2 That was 20 years ago, it still feels too soon.

Speaker 1 When you talk about situations,

Speaker 1 it's not just like, oh, this team, he doesn't make sense in this market because this team's not that good. He'll run amok.

Speaker 1 It's also, this team is doing really well. They wouldn't want to risk it just in case this goes sideways.

Speaker 1 And then the third group is teams that probably would take a chance on him, but they can't figure out how to make the trade. Like, I think the Clippers are a really good example of that.

Speaker 2 Yeah. So I would say that.

Speaker 1 I can see the Clippers like, oh, James Harden and something else from John Morant. Right.
Conceivably, but there's no way that trade happens. And why would Memphis do that?

Speaker 1 So there's really Miami is the one who's going to be.

Speaker 2 Miami's very good. Miami's very good.

Speaker 1 Yeah, because he's definitely like the ceiling of him is higher than Hero. You get out of having to pay Hero when his extension's coming up.

Speaker 1 And then you hope like, hey, if we can get Jazz head straight, we have him and Bam. Those are two of the best 25, 30 guys in the league.

Speaker 2 And Miami also has like an institutional thing. Like,

Speaker 2 you know, they'll get Alonzo Morning.

Speaker 2 they'll get udonis haslam they'll get all the old heads with the with the miami lineage to come get in this this this kid's head to talk to the camp and be like this ain't it there's a way for you to make another 500 million dollars if you would like to make another 500 million dollars over the course of your career let's figure it out together as a team you're now part of heat culture and there's a there's a pathway to this but you you gotta you gotta get right there's one other team for him.

Speaker 1 I didn't make this one of my five trades, but just I was thinking, if you're just talking about a bad team,

Speaker 1 there's a Brooklyn case.

Speaker 2 Oh,

Speaker 1 I think this draft that's coming up is so good.

Speaker 1 I don't think Brooklyn's going to do anything that will jeopardize them getting a top three pick because you have the Kansas kid might be the best guard prospect since Vince Carter or even go back to Kobe.

Speaker 1 Like, that's potentially how good he is, Peterson. And then DeBansa and then Boozer's son, the power forward,

Speaker 1 Cam Boozer.

Speaker 2 Awesome.

Speaker 1 Those, those three are all franchise guys. And if I'm Brooklyn, I'm doing nothing.
I could get Ja over the summer if I have to, but sure.

Speaker 1 But that was the only team because I was thinking like, man, just make him like the king of Barclays. He's obviously one of the coolest guys in the league, right? He's got the shoe and he's the whole.

Speaker 1 There's like street cred with him that Brooklyn just doesn't have. Brooklyn's like invisible.
They couldn't be more relevant. They're the third most popular team in New York.

Speaker 1 And at least if you have Ja, now I can put somebody on the side of the building. And that would be the same case for Trey Young, by the way.
But yeah, Brooklyn's doing nothing because of this draft.

Speaker 1 Next trade.

Speaker 1 I do like that Miami trade. I'm kind of as somebody who hates the heat.

Speaker 1 If that trade happened, I'd be like, fuck, they're going to fix John Morant. God damn it.

Speaker 2 Yes, they could.

Speaker 1 The only other John Morant trade is in this

Speaker 1 team is in this next trade, and it's a three-teamer.

Speaker 1 And of course, Trey Young has to be in it as well.

Speaker 1 Memphis gets Trey Young.

Speaker 2 Okay.

Speaker 1 Toronto gets John Morant.

Speaker 2 Okay.

Speaker 1 Atlanta gets quickly.

Speaker 1 Murray Boyles, the number one pick they took. Yeah, Toronto.
And a protected like 29 first. Not like an unprotected, but like some sort of other asset.

Speaker 1 And Memphis basically turns

Speaker 1 Morant Morant into Trey.

Speaker 1 And Trey goes in there. The Memphis fans will love him immediately.

Speaker 2 And

Speaker 1 maybe everybody's happy.

Speaker 2 So we can't have Morant to Atlanta and Trey to Memphis because Morant in Atlanta feels like a disaster.

Speaker 2 You agree with that?

Speaker 1 A disaster, maybe off the court. And I think on the court, if I'm trading Trey Young and I'm not investing in him, it's because I really like these long guys that I want to build my team around.

Speaker 1 Johnson and Reese Shea and Daniels. Like, this is, I want this to be my team.
I don't want to bring in another point guard who's going to have the ball all the time. Yeah.

Speaker 1 But you turn John at some depth. Quickly's the sixth guy off the bench.
Murray Boyle's another long guy.

Speaker 1 And that's just kind of how you spend the 50 million a year on Trey Young that you would have had to spend. You know what I mean? What's Atlanta get?

Speaker 1 That's what they would get. They would get Quickly and Murray Boyle's.

Speaker 2 oh i see okay and what memphis gets is tray and what toronto gets is ja and that's it and maybe

Speaker 1 maybe memphis has to throw in a tiny bit extra because i don't know if do you think tray and ja have equal trade value i would say tray's like a whiff higher right at this point well the problem is the contract is expiring yeah you're right so maybe they're even i think i think they're pretty close to even I like that idea for Toronto because they're just like kind of they're a team of, they're like a movie of where there's no star for the poster.

Speaker 2 We in the north.

Speaker 2 Yes, like a guy they can rally around, a guy that, that, you know, it's easy to say, oh, his, his situation, he was cheated out of, out of his potential down there in Memphis.

Speaker 2 We're going to rally behind him. I do like the coach in Toronto.
I think he's, he's, he's very good.

Speaker 2 Organizationally.

Speaker 2 You know, they move past Maasai,

Speaker 2 which seems like the right move.

Speaker 2 They have to have some structure for Ja to succeed.

Speaker 2 Seems like a town that

Speaker 2 he could work in. I kind of like it.

Speaker 2 Kind of like it.

Speaker 1 I kind of like it. If I'm Toronto, I don't do it, though.

Speaker 2 Why?

Speaker 1 I want to see what I have with this team a little bit longer. I think they're mildly intriguing.
Like, did you see any of the game on Tuesday when they just house the Bucs?

Speaker 2 Yes.

Speaker 1 They've had some moments this season that, and they're a 500 team, but they've had some moments where I'm like, huh.

Speaker 2 I get it.

Speaker 1 Yeah,

Speaker 1 I kind of understand. And maybe there's a better trade for them in December, January.

Speaker 2 But that's a lot of wattage. You know what I mean? Like that kind of

Speaker 2 a guy that's on the precipice of a superstar kind of thing, he was going to have a whole shoeline. He was going to have all of it.
How are you getting down in Toronto?

Speaker 1 And Bernos seems like he doesn't even have the answer to this either. Why is John Rand unhappy this year?

Speaker 1 Like,

Speaker 2 shouldn't he be trying to cooperate to Memphis? Something seems like

Speaker 2 when they fired Tayo Jenkins. It just didn't get fixed.

Speaker 1 It's been two years of this.

Speaker 2 It feels like it's been going on for a long time.

Speaker 1 Third trade, this goes back to what I was saying with the Celtics at the top.

Speaker 1 I hate hate saying this, and this has been floating around for six weeks.

Speaker 2 Okay.

Speaker 1 And I've resisted.

Speaker 1 I actually think they should probably trade Derrick White. And I love Derrick White.

Speaker 1 Like, he's an awesome Celtic. I don't want to trade Derrick White.

Speaker 1 But this team is like just good enough that they're going to screw up their pick. They have all of the, all of the reasons to just.
kind of just be one of the five worst teams in the league.

Speaker 1 Like they're really close. They can't rebound.

Speaker 1 is like incredibly important if he's not in the game they completely fall apart they have like a small lineup they play with josh minot that's kind of fun who's been a revelation as like you know a dirt cheap guy on the bench although now he's starting um and they just kind of live and die by threes

Speaker 1 but he's you know he's gonna be 32 later in the season and you know by the time tatum comes back i i just

Speaker 1 It's the one where I'm like, why wouldn't they, if somebody was willing to really go after him,

Speaker 1 how do you not think about it? Because you're not only getting assets, but you're making the team worse, which is kind of where you maybe want to be. Like that, they're playing like Luca Garza and,

Speaker 1 you know, Scheierman. They're playing guys who are just not NBA rotation guys, I don't think.

Speaker 1 And a lot, and Jalen's been really good. Like Jalen, you know, the question was, could he be a true number one? Like, he really can.

Speaker 2 But.

Speaker 2 Can you explain to me something with him?

Speaker 1 The hair thing. I don't.

Speaker 2 Why is he painting on the hairline?

Speaker 1 I think to get attention.

Speaker 2 I'm so

Speaker 2 Washington

Speaker 2 wore the striped jerseys because we couldn't see the painted on hairline. I know.
I don't think

Speaker 1 Davis said. Well, here's my Derrick White trade, and it's the trade that has been floated around for two months.
Okay.

Speaker 1 But it, but I think the trade's a little different than maybe it was two months ago. He goes to Houston,

Speaker 1 he goes with Tillman's expiring,

Speaker 1 and the Celtics get Van Vuit, and they get Tari Eason, who's been awesome this season, and they get Phoenix's 2027 first.

Speaker 1 And look, if Houston doesn't want to do that, then there's no trade. But I think that's the price.

Speaker 2 That's a stick.

Speaker 1 They could turn Derrick White into Eason and that Phoenix pick. Tari Eason.
And you're the Celtics, you kind of have to do that. I don't know how you say no to that.

Speaker 2 Well, that's a triple, double, triple, double win for Boston. You kidding me? That 2027 Phoenix pick and Tari Eason?

Speaker 2 I respect that. Okay, so now

Speaker 2 Houston, that's outrageous. All right, but if you're Houston.

Speaker 2 Right.

Speaker 1 But that's my price up on Boston. So what do you do if you're Houston?

Speaker 2 Something that costs a lot less than that.

Speaker 1 So you say no way.

Speaker 2 Yes. Yes.
No way.

Speaker 1 Houston's close to winning the title this year. Yeah.

Speaker 2 Tari Eason's an important part of that. Like he gives.

Speaker 1 Yeah, give up something to get something.

Speaker 2 I understand that, but

Speaker 2 that pick is

Speaker 2 crazy valuable, the 27 Suns pick. And Tari Eason is very valuable to him.
And the FVV contract is

Speaker 2 a movable part for somebody.

Speaker 1 Yeah, it goes this year and then next year.

Speaker 1 So would you do Eason and a lesser pick than the Phoenix pick?

Speaker 1 I don't know. Because now I'm not doing it from Boston.
I'm only trading Derek White if you've blown me away.

Speaker 2 I get that part. That part resonates.
I understand it. But where Houston is right now and the way that they're playing.

Speaker 1 Houston looks scary. Easton's like playing awesome.
So the Rockets fans are listening to this and be like, fuck you. We're not trading tire East.
I just said that.

Speaker 2 And I don't blame you with you. Yeah, so how's the money Houston fans?

Speaker 1 I'm just saying that's the price for Derrick White. And if they can't get something like that, I'm keeping them.

Speaker 2 Okay, that's fine. Good luck.
You're going to keep him. And the most important thing.

Speaker 1 And then we'll have the eighth pick in a three-player draft.

Speaker 2 Next trade.

Speaker 1 Oh, you're going to love this because your team's involved.

Speaker 2 Oh, boy. Here we go.

Speaker 1 Philadelphia gets Chris Middleton and C.J. McCollum.

Speaker 2 Okay.

Speaker 2 Fine.

Speaker 1 Washington gets two and a half years of Paul George,

Speaker 2 Eric Gordon,

Speaker 1 and Jared McCain.

Speaker 2 Okay.

Speaker 1 So you take Paul George for the next almost three years. He becomes your Chris Middleton this year, but just for three years, and you get McCain out of it.
That's the tax.

Speaker 2 It's worth it. It's worth it.
I would do that. You would do this.
Yes. Yes.

Speaker 2 I think McCain

Speaker 2 is extraordinary. What we, the, the, the problem that you have with McCain is now,

Speaker 2 you know, two consecutive years with these, with this injury stuff, is this a persistent, is this a trait or is it, or is it a bug? Bad luck. Yes, exactly.
You have to make that determination.

Speaker 2 But talent-wise,

Speaker 2 for a young player of his caliber, there's nobody on Washington as good as Jared McCain. And there's nobody coming down the pike to Washington that's as good as Jared McCain.

Speaker 2 Now, I am, I'm sitting here enjoying Mr. Saar.
You know, you got to see him last night. He's got some skill.
There's some skill in there.

Speaker 2 Here's my scouting report.

Speaker 1 really really promising stretch five

Speaker 1 like kind of a deade three-point shooter yeah i thought it was going in every time he took it he's got size i wouldn't say he's a great rebounder but he's not bad i didn't really see him be able to put the ball on the floor at all and and really do anything so i basically he's i think he becomes a better shooting Miles Turner would be my guess for him down the road, right?

Speaker 1 That was my takeaway watching him for two and a half hours last night. It's like

Speaker 1 Miles Turner and Serge Abaka had a baby, basically.

Speaker 2 You just have to remember he's 20. Right.
Like, we're getting a lot of evidence that there is NBA skill there.

Speaker 1 No, he's the opposite of a bust. You should feel good about Sarah.

Speaker 2 I do feel good about him.

Speaker 1 I have

Speaker 1 really no idea what's going on with the guards.

Speaker 2 Neither do they.

Speaker 1 Like, Bub Carrington seems like he'll be in the league for a little while, but he's not a starting point guard. Nope.

Speaker 1 I don't know why they would ever in a million years play him and Trey Johnson together. That was really confusing.
Trey Johnson, I texted you. His nickname should be drive-through.

Speaker 1 Everybody was just going by him. Like it was just going in, get a cheeseburger, keep going.

Speaker 1 But he's somebody that we know who he is. He's going to be like a scorer, but on that team, everybody wants the ball.
And it's just, it's a bad fit for him.

Speaker 2 Yeah.

Speaker 2 Yeah. God forbid somebody like BJ Edge comber, Ace Bailey,

Speaker 1 you just, yeah, you just missed it. Well, Saar looks like that SAR thing worked out, right? Yeah, I think if we redraft that draft, he's they'd probably take him again.

Speaker 1 So, you do you think Philly would do that? Because I guess it depends on how good you think McCain is and how desperate you are to get rid of the Paul George contract.

Speaker 1 They might be like, We're fine with the Paul George contract, we'll just pay it.

Speaker 2 Yeah, I mean, the calculus for Philly is:

Speaker 2 can

Speaker 2 we have this team going forward with both Embiid and Paul George? And the success of the team kind of depends on both those guys mining their manners for a little while. Right.
Maybe not even playing.

Speaker 2 Because really,

Speaker 2 both of them should shut the fuck up. Like, neither one of them should talk about anything having to do with, you know, career.
And

Speaker 2 they have no contribution to make to this iteration of the Sixers other than to play the

Speaker 2 role player thing that Embiid is playing. I mean, his inefficiency right now costs them the game against Cleveland.
They have him perfectly set up

Speaker 2 to play in this role where it should be about 25 minutes. He gets shot, but he took 21 shots.
He took six fucking three-pointers.

Speaker 2 He was one for six from three-point land, and they let the Cleveland Cavaliers come back

Speaker 2 from 20 some points down. That's bullshit.
That's not who they're,

Speaker 2 it shouldn't be permissible. They have a hard strategy thing to solve because Joel LMB, we signed him to this giant extension.

Speaker 2 He's a 22 to 26-minute player a night who should be able to come in off the bench and give you 16 to 20 because of the skill that he has. Well, he's basically late 2000s Andrew Bynum.

Speaker 1 Sure. Big guy that comes off the bench.
He can carry the offense for six minutes, hopefully.

Speaker 2 Yep.

Speaker 1 But maybe in crunch time, you don't want him out there because he's so slow.

Speaker 2 So you have that role filled. What's the Paul George role?

Speaker 2 Do you start him? You have to start him.

Speaker 1 The thing with the Sixers, and all of their fans would say this, is they just want to watch VJ and

Speaker 1 Maxie, and they want to see the team go up and down. And they know what the team's identity is.
And there are these two guys that are in the way of that identity.

Speaker 1 I don't think Paul George can play that way anymore. Me either.

Speaker 1 So if you're them, it's like, eh, maybe we're selling high in McCain. He wasn't even a lottery pick.
He was my favorite, favorite pick in the draft.

Speaker 2 Yeah, you know him from

Speaker 2 California, right?

Speaker 1 Yeah, I loved him in high school. I think he's, you know, I think he's a real dude, but he played really well for a couple of weeks to start the season, got hurt.

Speaker 1 So, you know, maybe you're selling high in that and it's a way to get out of the Paul George thing. I don't know.

Speaker 1 I think Philly would ultimately probably say no to that, but I think your team, that's the kind of trade they should be thinking. Totally.
We'll take your terrible contract.

Speaker 1 We have these two expirings. You can get out of jail with whatever you have and give us an asset to do this.

Speaker 2 I didn't hesitate. I said yes.
Please,

Speaker 2 for the record.

Speaker 1 My fifth trade is my favorite one, and I'm going to give it to you.

Speaker 2 Let's go.

Speaker 1 Right after this break. The Bill Simmons podcast is brought to you by FanDuel.
Your Friday Nights Just Got a Ladder, NBA Happy Hour happening on FanDuel. Every Friday from 6 to 7:30 p.m.

Speaker 1 Eastern, FanDuel's got limited time specials to pregame the weekend boost bonuses surprises all live in the app so on friday for instance houston is playing san antonio i think san antonio is in some trouble because they lost ellen harper they don't have darren fox yet and the lack of an actual point guard i think is starting to hurt them a little houston's got a lot of size i like houston that game but you can bet on that bet on whatever you want NBA happy hour every friday from 6 to 7 30 eastern only on fan duel official sportsbook partner of the nba visit fanduel.com slash bs to get started must be 21 plus president select states states or 18 plus in president in D.C., Kentucky, or Wyoming.

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Call 1-888-789-777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. This episode is brought to you by Shaky's, the People's Pizza Parlor.

Speaker 1 When it's game day, it's group day at Shaky's Pizza. Nothing beats piping hot pizza, a pitcher of ice cold beer, and rooting for your favorite team with your pals at Shaky's Pizza Parlor.

Speaker 1 I've done this.

Speaker 1 I'm going all in with Shaky's ultimate meat pizza, golden fried chicken, legendary crispy mojo potatoes, and you could order it online at shakies.com or watch the game at your neighborhood shakies with handcrafted pizza, chicken, and mojos.

Speaker 1 Turn football fantasy into reality at Shakey's, the People's Pizza Parlor. My fifth trade is my favorite one out of all of them, but we're going to do it right after this break.

Speaker 1 Our friends from FanDuel, they put NBA fans in control right from tip-off, allowing us to choose our own reward.

Speaker 1 Before you place your bets, check out the FanDuel Sportsbook app, choose your own reward that best fits your betting style. So, for choose your own reward,

Speaker 1 I'm choosing my starting five so far this season. The players that have impressed me knocked my socks off the most to date.
I thought we could do this together. Giddy has to be number one.

Speaker 2 Number one. Put him up there.

Speaker 1 I'm so proud. I was like,

Speaker 1 so few of us like that, like the Giddy Caruso trade for Chicago.

Speaker 2 I just always like tremendous win-win. An amazing win-win.

Speaker 1 One of the better trades. Yeah, it was almost like a wide George Hill trade.

Speaker 2 I think if you go back, anybody wants to go back and listen to the podcast of Bill Simmons and people from the ring are talking about that trade.

Speaker 2 I think everybody was very like, hey, we were all like a trade. Yeah.

Speaker 1 All right. So Giddy won.

Speaker 1 I got to say, I really like Saar. I think I would put him in my starting five.

Speaker 2 I think

Speaker 2 if you have a 20-year-old team. It's nice to say that, but you don't have to do that because I'm sitting here.
There's been some other guys.

Speaker 1 20-year-old seven-foot-one guy who can make six threes in a game. Like, that's not nothing.

Speaker 2 That's not nothing. I agree.
It's hard to say when, like, a team that doesn't win any basketball games.

Speaker 2 No, it's really hard to play with a point card.

Speaker 1 By the way,

Speaker 1 my favorite guy on the Wiz is Kispert.

Speaker 1 That guy should be on a winning team at some point in his life.

Speaker 2 Tremendous.

Speaker 1 He's a winning player. Tremendous.
It's a shame to waste him on that team.

Speaker 2 Very underrated golfer.

Speaker 2 He's excellent. He thinks he's the second best golfer in the NBA behind Seth Curry.
Wow.

Speaker 1 He does. Tari Ethan's my third guy.

Speaker 2 Tari Ethan,

Speaker 2 is he really a revelation? He's established.

Speaker 1 He's shooting 55% from three. I would say yes.

Speaker 2 I guess he's got to shoot threes like that. I get that point, but all I'm saying is like, he's already in a certain class.

Speaker 1 Well, they're asking me, they said there was no criteria. I'm looking at the FanDuel rules here.

Speaker 2 Let me throw that I think have been awesome. How about, how about, well, let you finish because I know you go.
Maybe you already have a guy. Maybe you already have this guy.
Who?

Speaker 2 The Jake LaRabia guy.

Speaker 2 You don't think for the

Speaker 1 Snowtime, the Snowtime Lakers?

Speaker 2 Yes.

Speaker 2 Yes.

Speaker 1 Yes. Part of the May-Ace Boys? There you go.

Speaker 2 Now we're talking. Protein cup.

Speaker 1 That's good. And I'll do Cedric Howard as my fifth one because I really like that guy.

Speaker 2 Love him.

Speaker 1 No matter how you play, Fando has given you the power to choose your reward, own your game this NBA season. Make your choice now.
My fifth trade, my favorite one.

Speaker 1 You mentioned the Bulls earlier, and I intentionally held you off.

Speaker 1 They've been really fun to watch, and it dates back to last year. We talked about it when we did the over-unders.
Their over-under was like 32.5.

Speaker 1 We didn't understand it because they were so good down the stretch. They didn't really lose anybody.
and we figured Boosellis would be better.

Speaker 1 What's interesting is all of it, they're six and one, and Giddy's been basically a triple-double this season. They're shooting the lights out.
They have actually defense on the swing spots now.

Speaker 1 Jones has come in as a backup point guard. And the guy that hasn't played yet is Kobe White,

Speaker 1 who is in the final year of a $12 million deal.

Speaker 1 You know who needs a point guard house? Well, there's a few teams, but I would say Minnesota is leading the way.

Speaker 2 Oh, wow. Yes, they do need a point guard.

Speaker 1 Chicago has a big-ass trade exception that can make some funkiness with their trades in a good way. It's one of the few teams that, with these modern rules, they can get pretty creative.

Speaker 1 They can take Kobe White. They could add somebody to him.
They could take somebody back who makes more money than him. They have a lot of flexibility.
But if you send him to Minnesota,

Speaker 1 a team that desperately needs a point guard,

Speaker 1 and you take back Defincenzo and Rob Dillingham

Speaker 1 and call it a day.

Speaker 1 I think I would do that if I was both teams.

Speaker 2 What's in it for Chicago?

Speaker 1 Definitely, another swingman shooter. He can get the Kevin Herder minutes

Speaker 1 or maybe share the Kevin Herder minutes or whatever. And then you're rolling the dice with Dillingham, hoping that down the road he's more of an asset.

Speaker 1 Maybe you can get more from Kobe White. I don't know, but he's in an expiring deal, making 12.

Speaker 2 I mean, is Kobe White going to play better than Trey Jones?

Speaker 1 I mean, the way Trey Jones has been playing, I don't know.

Speaker 2 That's what I like. Kobe White's a good player, though.

Speaker 1 I mean,

Speaker 1 he averaged 1920 a game.

Speaker 2 Over 29 minutes. Trey Jones is, you know, isn't he 85 cents on the dollar, Kobe White?

Speaker 1 Well, because the other

Speaker 1 The other way to go is you could talk to Houston about

Speaker 1 see if they're interested in Rich Guy Reed.

Speaker 1 Try to do a little Reed Shepherd,

Speaker 1 some other contract, send them back Kobe Jones.

Speaker 2 Kobe White. Kobe White.
Not Trey Jones. Trey Jones and Kobe White.

Speaker 1 When you said Jones, I screwed up.

Speaker 2 I didn't know that. Trey.

Speaker 1 Trey's right. Kobe Jones was a really good soccer player in the mid-90s.

Speaker 2 Okay.

Speaker 1 Houston's another thing, but I think Kobe Jones is a live trade asset right now.

Speaker 2 I said it again.

Speaker 2 Kobe White.

Speaker 1 And I think Kobe White's a live trade asset right now.

Speaker 1 And Kobe White. No, I think Kobe White's live on the trade machine.

Speaker 2 I do like this a lot. Kobe White underrated and this Bulls team getting better.

Speaker 2 The only question I have is like, is DiVincenzo,

Speaker 2 like, how's he fit with what this Bulls team is trying to do?

Speaker 1 Maybe that's not enough. I had a lot of trouble with Minnesota because they don't really have any picks.

Speaker 1 You could do swap stuff with them. I was just trying to figure out a way to get him there because

Speaker 1 if I'm Chicago, I'm now in a car keys situation. Yeah.
Like I've struck oil with Josh Giddy. This is not a sample size.
This guy is dominating games.

Speaker 1 He's getting like, even like in crunch time, he's getting where he wants in the court and creating what shot he wants. Like you've got something really special happening here.

Speaker 1 And I don't want Kobe White coming. I'm not going to pay him next year.

Speaker 1 I'd rather put my chips into the giddy basket and I would try to trade him.

Speaker 2 Well, I mean, especially like Boozelis is everything you hoped he could be. Mother Everson.
We were talking about that in the over-unders.

Speaker 1 We were hoping it was sitting there for him.

Speaker 2 47% from the field, over 42% from three.

Speaker 2 Yeah. Over

Speaker 2 free throw. Oh, he's a professional basketball player in the NBA.

Speaker 1 Well, the thing with them when you watch them, and I've really enjoyed watching them all year, is multiple guys who can beat somebody off the dribble and kick out or go to the basket.

Speaker 1 And they're just really hard to defend because you're always kind of going backwards. And Kobe White fits into that.
So they might decide we're just better off keeping him.

Speaker 1 But I think when you have a $12 million point guard and expiring contract in a league where nobody can make a trade, that's a really good asset. Maybe Defincenzo and Dillingham's not enough.

Speaker 1 I guess Dillingham, he was the eighth pick in the draft and Minnesota gave up an unprotected 2032 first for him. So I would assume he's an asset.

Speaker 1 He's only 20 and it's the one asset they really have at this point. So whether that's a fair trade or not, I don't know.
But I'm the Kobe White thing, I'm really watching and see what they do.

Speaker 1 We've never seen Chicago spend money. They've been happy to go 40 and 42 every year and not pay the luxury tax until they've been for 15 years.
But they have a chance to, you know, it's really fun.

Speaker 1 They also, if they wanted,

Speaker 1 they could take Kobe and a couple of their bigger contracts and go after an expensive guy.

Speaker 2 Well, who's like an expensive guy that we think is like a guy in the 40s, 50 million range, like a

Speaker 1 real

Speaker 1 guy?

Speaker 2 but the who i'm not gonna say a jalen brown but like a jalen brown not not actually jalen brown not not jalen brown not actually jalen like unless bezell they wouldn't nobody wants to mess with a subonis right subonis isn't

Speaker 1 subonis for chicago no that i think they would improve the wings if they did anything

Speaker 1 that patrick williams akoro those kind of guys

Speaker 1 But fun team to watch. All right, that's it for the trade machine.
We're moving to NBA.

Speaker 1 Any other basketball before we go? Any other basketball takes you want to get off?

Speaker 2 No, you believe in this Lakers thing yet?

Speaker 2 How can you not? I mean, I'm super proud of myself. I stared at it for so long last night.
The only basketball take for me to get off is I've started playing money line parlays.

Speaker 2 I stayed away from last night. The slate didn't line up for it, but the game I stared at long and hard was that Lakers San Antonio game

Speaker 2 because I really wanted to bet the Lakers. And I'm glad that I stayed away from it.
But

Speaker 2 I understand, but it's like, that would have been too nerve-wracking. Just, you know, that late at night.
I don't see that.

Speaker 1 San Antonio's in a rough spot without point guards here.

Speaker 1 You know, they don't have Fox yet, and they lost Harper, and I just, they feel like they're a ball handler short. I thought I watched a lot of that Phoenix game, and I thought

Speaker 1 Phoenix did work some stuff against them. And all of a sudden, they seem very stagnant to me.

Speaker 1 And they just need those guys back. I'm monitoring San Antonio because when they get all these guys back, I think they're going to go rocket ship.

Speaker 2 Okay.

Speaker 2 All right. Football.

Speaker 1 I sent you, we are right in the, as we try to figure out Ringer 107 picks, we're right in the exact part of the season

Speaker 1 when everybody thinks they knows who the playoff teams are going to be.

Speaker 1 And yet somebody comes out of nowhere and somebody has a swoon. And sometimes it's one team in each conference where it happens.

Speaker 1 So I mailed you all the candidates.

Speaker 1 And I think there's three teams that you could say have a chance to make a leap. And I'll just use the FanDuel playoff odds to show that this would be significant.

Speaker 1 Houston is three and five plus 520 to make the playoffs. And I think they fit all the criteria for a possible leap team.

Speaker 1 Minnesota is four and four. They were three and four.
They won last week.

Speaker 1 If you're under 500, week seven or later, you fit this criteria. So they're four and four now.
They're plus 430 for the playoffs. And then Arizona is three and five,

Speaker 1 plus 980. So I'm just going to give you those three teams to start.
Houston, Minnesota, Arizona. I'm going to tell you one of those three teams will be in the playoffs.

Speaker 1 Which of those three would you pick?

Speaker 2 The team that I think is the best of those three teams is Arizona.

Speaker 1 I think you're right.

Speaker 1 I couldn't believe the plus 980. I thought that

Speaker 1 seemed really high to me.

Speaker 2 They haven't lost. They lost five games so far this season, but none of them by more than four points.

Speaker 1 I mean, that. Yeah, I have them with the adjusted record.
I have them as three and one with four either or games.

Speaker 1 And all the game, all their losses and games have been close. And it seems like they're happier with their quarterback situation than they were.

Speaker 2 I mean,

Speaker 2 to put it mildly, the problem with Arizona, the reason that the price, you know, it's just a gauntlet. They are on the road at Seattle.
They're home against San Francisco. Now, Jacksonville,

Speaker 2 I'm sure we'll get to today. Home against Jacksonville doesn't worry me, but on the road at Tampa, home against the Rams.

Speaker 1 They have two easy games at Cincinnati, home Jacksonville. And at Cincinnati, I don't even know how easy of a game that is because Burrow might be back.
It's week 17.

Speaker 2 Burrow's not coming back. What's the point of playing Joe Burrow on that terrible football team?

Speaker 1 At Seattle, at Tampa, at Houston, at Cincy, at Rams left, and they're three and five. So they basically

Speaker 1 have to go seven and two.

Speaker 2 It's tough.

Speaker 2 I think, you know, if I you would say Cincinnati is, to me, is a win. They have Atlanta at home.
That's a win. Atlanta's, what a team.

Speaker 2 They're at Houston, I think, just because of the injuries. Houston and Arizona are very similar.
And why I think it's like you have them properly organized in the same class.

Speaker 2 This concussion situation with CJ Stroud this weekend against Jacksonville, it just couldn't come at a worse time.

Speaker 2 And they, the Houston Texans, were poised to do the thing that we picked them last week to do. We hit that.

Speaker 2 I mean, you know, stupid.

Speaker 2 It was a cheap shot. Like, I don't, you know.
Yeah. He didn't hit him in the head, but he hit him as he slid down and he got concussed from hitting his head off the turf.

Speaker 2 I feel like not enough has been made of the fact that that's a cheap shot and it knocked the quarterback out.

Speaker 2 And that probably clinches for Houston their inability to make the playoffs this season because they were kicking Denver's ass in that game.

Speaker 1 So I have out of those three, I have Houston as the team that I would pick, even though I think Arizona is the best of the three. Because Houston's three and five.

Speaker 1 I have them at three, three and two either or games so far. They're plus 5-20 to make the playoffs.

Speaker 1 But if you look at the schedule, first of all, they'd have to win the Jacksonville game this week, which is home, which is going to come up in Ringer 107 because I have hard thoughts on that game.

Speaker 1 At Tennessee.

Speaker 1 So they could be 5-5 in 10 days, right? A little more doable at that point.

Speaker 1 Home Buffalo, at Indy, at KC, home, Arizona, home, Las Vegas. At the Chargers,

Speaker 1 home Indy, and that game might mean nothing to Indy. So then you might be locked into a one or a two seed.

Speaker 2 The problem is they'll be five and five. I like the idea of where you're going, but then Buffalo, Indy, Kansas City, Arizona, those are the next four.

Speaker 2 That's how you define what. Yeah, they at an absolute bare minimum must go two and two.

Speaker 1 The question for me is: can nine and eight make the playoffs in the AFC?

Speaker 1 Because

Speaker 1 you have four teams,

Speaker 1 four teams. I have four, I have five teams that I think are going to be in the playoffs, New England, Buffalo, Indy, Denver, and Casey.

Speaker 1 And I know Casey is the AT, but I just think those five teams are going to be in. I'd be shocked, like really genuinely shocked, right?

Speaker 1 Do you have any of those out? No. New England, Buffalo, Indy, Denver, Casey.
They're all in. So there's two spots left.

Speaker 1 And we know one of those spots goes to the AFC North, and then the other goes to the wildcard. See, Pittsburgh at five and three.
Again, two spots left for these four teams.

Speaker 1 Pittsburgh, five and three, they're minus 115 to make the playoffs on FanDuel. Seems like the right thing.
Baltimore three and five. They're minus 170.

Speaker 1 Chargers six and three. They're minus 192.

Speaker 1 And Jacksonville's five and three. They're minus 158.

Speaker 2 So the odds are off.

Speaker 1 There's actually value in playing all of those to not make the playoffs, right? Because only two of them are going to make it. So you're probably going to win that either way.

Speaker 1 I would have the Chargers out. I think the Joe Alt thing finished them.

Speaker 2 I agree with this.

Speaker 1 I just think

Speaker 1 they they can't block.

Speaker 2 Cannot.

Speaker 1 On top of some of the other shit that's happened, though. And I don't, I really don't.

Speaker 1 I think Herbert's just going to get better.

Speaker 2 He's so vulnerable to pressure.

Speaker 1 They also

Speaker 1 have a Philly home game. They have Pittsburgh this week at KC.
They have at Denver last week of the season. It just feels like nine and eight to me.
I think they could go three and five.

Speaker 1 So that would be one of my no's.

Speaker 1 And then Jacksonville, I just think is fraudulent.

Speaker 2 That's how they're out. I've discussed that many times.
No, no, no. So the two teams that I have in,

Speaker 2 you didn't ask,

Speaker 2 are no, AFC. Yeah, Baltimore and Denver.
What do you have? I have Baltimore and Denver.

Speaker 1 I had Denver in already.

Speaker 2 You said AFC West when you ran through the teams because you had the Chiefs in, and then you said another spot for the AFC West.

Speaker 1 Oh, I had New England, Buffalo, Indy, Denver, and KC. I had those five.

Speaker 2 Okay, okay, okay. So two left.
I see. Oh, okay.
Now I got it.

Speaker 1 Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Chargers, Jacksonville, Houston. Pick two.

Speaker 1 Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Chargers, Jacksonville, Houston.

Speaker 2 I have Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

Speaker 1 I think that's right.

Speaker 1 And Houston would have to take one of their spots. I think how is that?

Speaker 2 This is how stupid I am.

Speaker 2 Yeah. We'll get to it and then ringer

Speaker 2 107.

Speaker 2 Okay.

Speaker 2 I really like Pittsburgh in LA this week.

Speaker 1 Oh, unfortunately, I do too. I had it marked down.

Speaker 1 Damn it.

Speaker 2 It makes a ton of sense.

Speaker 1 You know what killed Houston?

Speaker 1 That game last week.

Speaker 1 It did. And they'd be four and four right now.
I think they'd be fine.

Speaker 2 With a game in hand against Denver, which is an important thing.

Speaker 1 Going six and so they're three and five. They'd have to go seven and two down the stretch to get the 10 wins.

Speaker 2 I can't get there with Houston. I can't get there.

Speaker 2 All right.

Speaker 1 So, the only reason I bring all this up is I think it informs how we should be thinking about ringer 107 because

Speaker 1 this is a fork in the road for the playoffs in a lot of ways. In the NFC,

Speaker 1 where we have four teams that I think are in, Philly, Green Bay, Tampa, and Seattle, there's three spots left.

Speaker 1 And yet

Speaker 1 the Rams are minus 750 to make the playoffs at 6-2.

Speaker 1 Detroit is minus 430 to make the playoffs at 5-3. And San Francisco is minus 385 to make the playoffs at 6-3.
This is all in FanDuel.

Speaker 1 So FanDuel is basically saying

Speaker 1 the other four spots,

Speaker 1 four to one odds against these teams making it basically, which is they're prohibitive favorites. So Chicago is plus 185.
They're 5-3.

Speaker 1 Carolina is 5-4. They're plus 235 with a pretty easy schedule.

Speaker 1 And then Minnesota, 4-4, and Arizona, 3-5.

Speaker 1 There's a Mild Bears case, House.

Speaker 1 I actually was surprised they were plus 185. I thought that should have been a little closer to even because they got the Giants this week.

Speaker 1 They could be 6-3 at Minnesota, Pittsburgh, at Philly, at Green Bay, Cleveland, home, Green Bay, home, at San Francisco, home, Detroit.

Speaker 1 And I think they can get to at least nine wins.

Speaker 1 But would you go chalk or would you have an outlier? Detroit, Rams, San Francisco, last three spots. Would you go chalk?

Speaker 2 Yeah.

Speaker 2 You would. You would go chalk.
The parlay that

Speaker 2 we talked about and we've been sort of pursuing over the last couple of weeks still feels

Speaker 2 right to me. I just,

Speaker 2 even though Chicago, I want to give them credit because

Speaker 2 they keep surprising with changing the script of things that they can't do, and then they start doing it successfully.

Speaker 2 They, I think they're the best rush team on offense, the best running team on offense over the last maybe at least three weeks, maybe a month.

Speaker 2 The combination of DeAndre Swift and the guy that you picked up in free agency last week for his dominant 170

Speaker 2 monoguy, yeah, Monaguy, not a guy, Monaguy.

Speaker 2 Yes,

Speaker 2 well,

Speaker 1 so Detroit,

Speaker 1 Rams, Detroit, San Francisco, all to make the playoffs right now is minus 112.

Speaker 1 Basically, even odds, those are the three.

Speaker 1 And if I had to pick a party crasher, I think I would pick Chicago just because they've had the turnover luck all year.

Speaker 1 And it's weird, but with turnover luck, it seems to change season to season and not during the season. Once you're kind of in that turnover, good shit's happening.
It feels like it just keeps going.

Speaker 1 I have no anecdotal evidence. I mean, no hardcore evidence, more anecdotal.
But sometimes every, it feels like there's a horseshoe up the ass team in each conference every year.

Speaker 1 And this year it's Pittsburgh and Chicago. The team.
And it just feels like a run that keeps going.

Speaker 2 The team I'd like to fade based on all the vulnerability we saw out of them last week is Detroit because that offensive line has revealed something to us. They just had a lot of injuries.

Speaker 1 Yeah. Yeah.

Speaker 2 The injuries in the secondary, but they still have three games against the worst teams in the NFC East, which are all of the NFC East teams except for the Eagles.

Speaker 2 They get to play Washington this week. Now, eight and a half is a ridiculous number, preposterous.

Speaker 2 And under no circumstance do I tell anybody to lay eight and a half with the Detroit Lions on the road outdoors against Washington. They might end up covering.

Speaker 1 Yeah, if Daniels was playing that Lions four.

Speaker 2 Three and a half, right, exactly.

Speaker 2 And the difference between Mariota and Daniels is not five points.

Speaker 1 This year's version of Dennis.

Speaker 2 Sure, yes. I'm here to tell you.

Speaker 2 But

Speaker 2 Detroit also still gets the Giants. They still get Dallas.
And so otherwise, because their schedule ends with two division games on the road against Minnesota and on the road against the Bears.

Speaker 2 If they're duking it out with the Bears, that Bears last game of the season might be for that playoff spot.

Speaker 2 So

Speaker 2 what are the odds for the Bears to make?

Speaker 1 Plus 185. Well, and then Carolina, we should mention quickly.

Speaker 1 They're five and four. I have them at two and two with five either or games.
That's not bad. But they're playing New Orleans this week.
They're going to be six and four.

Speaker 1 At Atlanta next week, they could be seven and four.

Speaker 1 At San Francisco, who knows who's left on that team? Yeah. Play the Rams bye week at New Orleans,

Speaker 1 Tampa, Seattle, and then at Tampa last week of the season, but Tampa will have at least quenched whatever they needed. There's a pretty easy case for nine wins for them.

Speaker 1 And then all that would need is one upset after that. And then all of a sudden they're 10 and 7 in the playoffs.

Speaker 2 I haven't bet eight and eight going through the schedule the way you just did, going into eight and eight, but like

Speaker 1 all of a sudden they beat the Rams in Carolina. And you're like, oh my God, that my issue with looking at the playoff picture this year is there's no, I can't believe this.

Speaker 1 like when we get to January and we're like,

Speaker 1 I can't fucking believe this team's in the playoffs. And that team is there every year.
And I don't know who that team is this year, but it's going to be a team.

Speaker 2 It's going to be the Bears.

Speaker 1 It's going to be the Panthers,

Speaker 2 right? What's the Carolina odds to make the playoffs?

Speaker 1 Plus 235.

Speaker 2 So a tiny bit on the Bears at plus 185 and a tiny bit on Carolina at plus 235

Speaker 2 to offset the plus 340

Speaker 2 17 parlay for the NFC picture that I bet two weeks ago.

Speaker 1 That's what it was, plus 340?

Speaker 2 Plus 340.

Speaker 1 Oh, when I sent it to you.

Speaker 2 And then it dropped because Washington went out and put up a stinker against the Chiefs. Washington at that point was still

Speaker 2 in the running.

Speaker 1 San Francisco is the weak link in the 30s.

Speaker 2 Yes.

Speaker 1 With the man injuries they've had. And they still have at Zona.
They still have an at Indy. They got the Rams this week where they're getting four and a half points in that game.

Speaker 1 They have Seattle last week of the season, they're at Cleveland one week. I could easily see them losing five more games.

Speaker 1 I was telling you and Sal and Henshau, I had made some San Francisco bets before the year. I bet the under 10 and a half.

Speaker 1 And when I went to, when I was in Boston, you can look at Fando and they offer you the, do you want to buy this out now? Cash out. Yeah, you can cash this out

Speaker 1 if you're not happy. So they offered me like 85% of the Niners under bet.

Speaker 1 Right? Maybe even 90%. They're like, you can have all this now, or do you want to ride it out? And I was like, oh, that's interesting.

Speaker 1 So Fandel doesn't think the Niners are winning 11 games because they really want me to cash this bet out for 90%.

Speaker 1 Not a good sign. All right, we're going to take one more break and do some picks.
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Terms apply. All right, Ringer 107.
We're one game under 500. Some bad luck last week with Houston.

Speaker 1 I just felt like we've been banging out three and twos, four and ones for a while. The Houston one, what can you do? Stayaways this week.

Speaker 1 I'd like to stay away from Panthers minus five and a half against the Saints, if that's possible.

Speaker 1 I don't want to lay that many points with the Panthers.

Speaker 2 Say less. Don't have to bet.
Don't have to argue about that one.

Speaker 1 Browns minus two and a half against the Jets, who just traded two of their best guys on defense and look like

Speaker 1 a classic Ewing Theory situation. And I don't want to take Dylan Gabriel on the road.

Speaker 2 No. And

Speaker 1 Jefferson might not be playing.

Speaker 2 Weather, all kinds of stuff.

Speaker 1 Weather. I just, I don't want any part of that.
I don't want that in a ring of 107. That's out.

Speaker 1 Lions

Speaker 1 at Washington laying eight and a half. I thought about the Lions in a parlay situation, but first of all, they screwed us last week.
Nope. Second of all, we're not taking Washington.

Speaker 1 They've lost by 22, 21, and 24 the last three weeks. And it seems like if they fall behind by 10, the game's over.

Speaker 1 And their defense is 38th yards per play, 29th pass. I have no idea what's going to happen this game.
I don't really want to have money on it.

Speaker 2 You agree?

Speaker 2 I'm not going to make a case that we should bet on Washington. I'm just saying the number is crazy.
It's way overinflated. It's not a good thing.
No, it is.

Speaker 1 It's our flash sale line of the week.

Speaker 2 Yes, it is.

Speaker 1 Do you like Washington at five and a half? Here's eight and a half.

Speaker 1 Right now, 12-hour lightning deal.

Speaker 2 By now, Washington can get pressure. They don't have no edge pressure, but they can get pressure up the middle.

Speaker 1 Well, it's also that this is the season. If they lose this game, the season's over in their home.

Speaker 2 And I do think they're going to lose this game, but eight and a half is preposterous. Anything over a touchdown is ridiculous.

Speaker 1 House, remember when Washington was awesome and they went to the

Speaker 1 feels like it was about eight years ago. It was just last year.

Speaker 1 I think Seahawks Cardinals is a stayaway for me.

Speaker 1 It's Seahawks home minus six and a half. And I know there's some cases for the cards playing them.
They've been, you mentioned them earlier.

Speaker 1 They've been, every game's been close, et cetera, et cetera.

Speaker 1 Seattle's advanced metrics stuff is pretty nuts. And I kind of want to see somebody beat them before I go against them.
I also don't want to lay seven in a must-win game for Arizona.

Speaker 2 I don't know what that number is based on. If Kyler Murray was playing, then I could see this number making sense.
Yeah. Because Mike McDonald

Speaker 2 would absolutely have something cooked up

Speaker 2 for Kyler. But

Speaker 2 the six and a half is not a good number. I think Arizona is much better than that.
And Seattle is super gettable at home.

Speaker 1 On the flip side, you could say that number is not high enough because Seattle's first in DVOA in the whole league. Aaron Schott said they had the fourth best DVOA through eight games since 1978.

Speaker 1 So they're not just really good. They're fucking killing teams.

Speaker 1 Second, their D is second against a run, second year per play, third for quarterback hits.

Speaker 1 Their passing offense is obviously awesome. Here's my fear with this one.
I think they're going to, especially post-Shahid trade, a little too much,

Speaker 1 too much buzz.

Speaker 2 I agree. I mean, I think so.
I just like

Speaker 1 this feels like a classic, oh, and in Arizona, Arizona's up 10-0. I don't want any part of this game.
Next one is Bears home against the Giants. They're laying four and a half.

Speaker 1 And my eyes keep drifting to it. And I keep trying to talk myself into it, but it feels too square.
It's in the Vegas zone for a reason.

Speaker 1 I mean, the Giants run defense is awful. I love that Bears running back last week.
I think he can run all over these guys.

Speaker 1 But yet, you look at the turnover look the Bears have had and some of the other signs, and it's like, I just, it's a stay away from me. I wish this line was like one and a half.

Speaker 2 Then they'd be fine. Then it would be worth betting on.
Yeah, no chance. I won't let us bet on the Bears under this

Speaker 2 at that number.

Speaker 1 Do we want to go near near Packers Eagles?

Speaker 2 I have a strong conviction on one side of that game.

Speaker 1 Oh, well, let's hear it. The Packers are favored by two and a half head in Green Bay.
What is your strong conviction?

Speaker 2 I really think this is an opportunity for the Eagles to re-assert themselves at the top of the NFC class. I think the Eagles are super live to go get the one seed.
in the NFC.

Speaker 2 It is there for the taking. In view of the trades that they've made, they have told us that that is their desire.
They have been very good against Green Bay historically. And

Speaker 2 the argument in favor of Green Bay is,

Speaker 2 will they show up or won't they? Every other game, they've played the good teams in the league very well, Green Bay has, but it is inexcusable.

Speaker 2 to have the loss that they had last week against Carolina and and their receiver room, the only guy that I can look at and know confidently is healthy coming into this game is Dobbs.

Speaker 2 I think that wears the kazoo helmet. Yes, he does.
Yes, he does. I think that

Speaker 2 it is yet to be written how impactful the absence of Kraft is on that offense.

Speaker 1 Manthe Golden playing, maybe not playing at all, but who knows?

Speaker 2 Kraft especially, though, is the thing.

Speaker 1 Yeah, Kraft. We talked about that.

Speaker 1 Shil and I talked about that Tuesday. He looked like Shield thought he was the best tight end in the league.
Right.

Speaker 2 Yes.

Speaker 2 The different

Speaker 2 things that Green Bay could do. They can't really run the ball.
They don't really run the ball.

Speaker 2 I think it's a great situation to get into the Eagles.

Speaker 1 Can I interest you in maybe a little slight bump up and some sort of teaser parlay situation with the Eagles to get them to go?

Speaker 2 I'll listen for. I'll listen.

Speaker 1 I think you're right on on the Eagles. My one fear

Speaker 1 is

Speaker 1 Green Bay doesn't turn the ball over and they're great on third down. They're second on third down, second and turnover.
So when they have the ball, they have it for a while.

Speaker 1 Eagles are 26th on third down, 22nd in causing turnovers,

Speaker 2 right?

Speaker 1 And my fear is you take the Eagles and the Packers just have these long, boring seven-minute drives. And then the Philly gets the ball back and they go three and out.

Speaker 1 And the Packers have the ball for eight minutes again. And I just was playing that in my head.
DVOA, Green Bay seventh and Philly's 11th.

Speaker 1 I'm with you on, I like the Eagles spot because I agree with you on Kraft. I think that was a bigger issue than

Speaker 1 maybe the Lions are giving credit for. Do you have an opinion on Charger Steelers? Because that was in the maybe camp for me.

Speaker 2 I think that it is basically a West Coast home game for the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Speaker 2 I think that the place is going to be packed with Steelers fans. And I thought that the adjustment that they made on

Speaker 2 defense

Speaker 2 and the way that they played the Colts was amazing. Now, yes, they generated six turnovers.
Are they going to generate six turnovers against the Chargers?

Speaker 2 It feels unlikely, but they showed an ability to adapt. And, you know, they took away from the Colts what the Colts like to do.

Speaker 2 And we've been sitting here waiting for this pittsburgh uh defense to to reveal itself to us all season long um they worked into high cover they were they just showed a lot of flexibility that they for whatever reason been unwilling to show us earlier and i think that this

Speaker 2 did they play some robert bernays

Speaker 2 I think they did.

Speaker 1 Stakesaw splits?

Speaker 2 I think they had that one. There was some simulated pressure, some simulated some simulated worst pressure oh interesting yeah did they do any ex-robber

Speaker 2 there was probably some ex-rober to basket

Speaker 1 well the stats say pittsburgh's defense fucking sucks yeah they do they give up this year they've given up 278.3 passing yards per game we watched it per game yep Watched it all season.

Speaker 1 32nd in the league against the pass.

Speaker 1 And they're second in turnovers, which makes no sense. Here's a concerning stat:

Speaker 1 the Cleveland Browns have 134 first downs.

Speaker 1 Would you say that's a good offense?

Speaker 2 Doesn't feel like it.

Speaker 1 The Steelers have 139. The five, five more.

Speaker 1 They basically have the same number of first downs as the Cleveland Browns.

Speaker 1 It makes me nervous.

Speaker 2 They're also 30th in the run.

Speaker 1 I don't know. This is still a maybe to me.

Speaker 1 Let's go to the parlay section of this

Speaker 1 where I have the Bills defense minus nine and a half. And I would love to put the Bills money line with a pick and adjust the line just a little bit.

Speaker 2 Okay.

Speaker 1 Where we have the Bills first

Speaker 1 run, third pass, or third yard per play. Miami's 30th against the run, 28th yards per play.
Miami stinks, by the way, in case you haven't noticed. Buffalo's defense, second against the pass.

Speaker 1 All these good

Speaker 1 matchup stuff. Plus, like every week we've had a new MVP, and this feels like it's the Josh Allen.
Hey, actually, I'm the MVP week where he just like kills the Dolphins.

Speaker 1 He's favored right now.

Speaker 1 No, I know, but it's somebody's like

Speaker 1 each week. Somebody's had a, is he the MVP? But we haven't had the Josh Allen.
Is he the MVP week yet? Maybe it's this week. I would love to put them in with something.

Speaker 1 And I was thinking that something could be the Ravens in Minnesota, unless you want to do the Eagles.

Speaker 2 Let me hear the,

Speaker 2 I love the Ravens this week, so you're not going to have to sell me.

Speaker 1 Ravens,

Speaker 1 this line drifted a little high.

Speaker 1 This line went to

Speaker 1 Ravens minus four and a half in Minnesota.

Speaker 2 But

Speaker 1 it's an absolute must-win for Baltimore, and they're completely healthy.

Speaker 2 And

Speaker 1 could Minnesota really beat Detroit and Baltimore in back-to-back weeks? Nope. That's what I keep thinking.

Speaker 2 Nope.

Speaker 1 So I was thinking: like, for instance, we could take the Ravens line to two and a half,

Speaker 1 throw it with the Bills money line, and that gets us in the minus 120. Fine, we could also take the Eagles line up to four and a half,

Speaker 1 put that with the Bills money line, same bet. I think we should do one of those two.

Speaker 2 I'd rather put

Speaker 2 because one of those two bets we i feel like we need as its own standalone bet so which one we can figure that out yeah what's well let's we'll go through the rest of these

Speaker 1 just talk me out of the falcons colts falcons plus six and a half

Speaker 2 um i'm dying

Speaker 2 i'm dying to bet the colts it's in indy

Speaker 1 I'm sorry, it's not in Indy. It's in Berlin.
It's in Berlin.

Speaker 2 It's in Germany. Yeah, it's in Berlin.
Which franchise of those two do do I think is going to be better prepared?

Speaker 2 Like the fucking Falcons can't figure out how to travel to San Francisco and be competitive.

Speaker 2 They're going to travel internationally and have their shit together enough to put up, you know, a modicum of resistance against this Colts team that's dying.

Speaker 1 after getting its pants pulled down and you know and on that that stage with Pittsburgh to show everybody Ward's concussed, and Gardner supposedly cleared, but Gardner is going to go from the Jets to the Colts and then fly to Germany, and that's his first game, and he's going to be good.

Speaker 2 I'm a little dubious. Better than their alternative.
Better than the alternative, that's for sure.

Speaker 1 I thought the Falcons were pretty good last week. They were.
I thought they played a good spot. They were a great spot for them.

Speaker 2 They did. They did play a great

Speaker 2 bad. They played a lot.
They were not good.

Speaker 1 This does violate our Europe role, which is why I had to put an asterisk next to it. I would probably lean Falcons, Falcons, but I think we have to stay away.

Speaker 2 Okay.

Speaker 1 Fucking hey, I like the Niners. I wish I didn't.
Niners are plus four and a half at home against the Rams.

Speaker 2 You're supposed to grab all those points with the Niners. That's what we're supposed to do.

Speaker 1 They played in week five. It was an overtime game.
San Francisco won 26-23.

Speaker 2 The Rams won every aspect of that game. The Rams beat the crap out of the Niners in that game until, you know, there was a fumble at the goal line.

Speaker 1 Niners are home.

Speaker 1 There's all kinds of weird Rams kicker shit going on.

Speaker 2 So I feel like there's a free three points in this game.

Speaker 1 It's Niners plus four and a half, but it's really Niners plus seven and a half because somebody in the Rams is missing a kick.

Speaker 2 Interesting.

Speaker 1 There's a lot of like the McShea versus Shanahan stuff I think has been overblown because the Rams did beat them twice last year.

Speaker 1 But

Speaker 1 it's a nice, fun, long rivalry. And

Speaker 1 I don't don't know. How good do you think the Rams are? Because the advanced metrics say they're better than

Speaker 1 what I feel like I'm watching with my eyes.

Speaker 2 Their defense is gettable. Their secondary is super gettable.
It's just that they've been able to put pressure on teams and they've been able to.

Speaker 1 Third and sack, fourth, and hits.

Speaker 2 Yeah, there you go. So that is how they've addressed the fact that their secondary is crazy vulnerable.

Speaker 1 I think it's too many points. I have it marked out.

Speaker 2 Okay.

Speaker 1 Next one, Bucs Pats.

Speaker 1 Bucs minus two and a half in Tampa against the Pats.

Speaker 1 Listen, we're under 500 and it's week 10, and I have no problem going against my team for one week. I'll still root for them.
Okay. I think this line's too low.

Speaker 1 I just think this is a horrible matchup for the Pats. I don't like it at all because it's not going to, the Pats are great stopping the run.
It's not going to really matter.

Speaker 1 I don't even think Bucky Irving's going to play. I think the Tampa's going to throw the ball and move the ball and do the stuff they do with Baker.

Speaker 1 And the Pats, Atlanta was going up and down the field on them throwing the ball last week. And it really,

Speaker 1 you know, I think they have problems covering tight ends. They have problems covering running backs.
There's, there's receiver issues with the Pats.

Speaker 1 Whereas Booty, the moment he left the game, they were kind of never the same. They lost like their deep threat when they lost him.
And Diggs is playing half the game.

Speaker 1 If you look at the snaps, like Matt Collins played 60% of the snaps last week and Kyle Williams played 50%.

Speaker 1 And also, like, Ramondre is hurt. They're not really running the ball.

Speaker 2 And

Speaker 1 I just think they're due for a shit game. They haven't been down by 10 points to anybody since week one.

Speaker 1 I don't like the spot.

Speaker 2 I think this. We're in lockstep.

Speaker 2 Yeah. I was worried that I was going to have to talk you into this.
I have to talk about it. No, no, no.

Speaker 1 I just, I feel bad because I didn't want to go anti-Pats, but we have

Speaker 1 107.

Speaker 2 We have to go get it. Yeah.
We're in lockstep to Tampa as a play this week.

Speaker 1 At that number. Plus, if the Pats win, I'm happy to sacrifice the 1.07 pick.
Fuck them.

Speaker 1 Texans, Jaguars. I can't believe we're going back to the wood, but I like the Texans again.

Speaker 2 I just can't with Davis Mills. I just can't do it.

Speaker 1 I just can't. Well, it might have to be one of my picks.

Speaker 2 It could be your pick. I just, you know, I watched it.
We were in a perfect situation with the Denver game.

Speaker 2 I'm aware.

Speaker 2 The Jaguars, let there be no doubt. I mean, Trevor Lawrence, his completion percentage over expectation.
He is in the company of players like

Speaker 2 Cam Ward and Dylan Garrett.

Speaker 1 I have his EPA. He's 46th.
Yes. Fields is 37th.

Speaker 1 Two is 43rd. Kirk Cousins is 52nd.
So he's barely better than Kirk Cousins, who was dead.

Speaker 2 You want to play?

Speaker 1 I just don't think Jacksonville against that defense is doing jack shit. So let me make Davis Mills case.

Speaker 1 He's 5, 19, and 1 as a starter. Oh, wait, that didn't help me.

Speaker 2 Shit. That's your opener.

Speaker 1 Now, I got to make a different case.

Speaker 1 Came in cold

Speaker 2 last Sunday.

Speaker 2 They gave him a play. They know he was going to play.
This whole week. They know he was going to play.

Speaker 2 They made a plan for him this week. Last week, they played.
Now he knows he's going to play.

Speaker 1 It's like, hey, we're playing Jacksonville. Jacksonville, 27th against the pass, 31st sacks this year.

Speaker 1 Pretty good against the run. First and penalties.
That's another Jacksonville thing. They fucking have 10 penalties a game.
Yeah.

Speaker 1 Davis,

Speaker 1 here's the plan. You're going to do this.
You're going to do this. We got Nico back with third and five.
We have this pet play for you. Well, look at how they had the whole week to plan them.

Speaker 2 How starved Jacksonville

Speaker 2 is in the receiver room.

Speaker 1 They don't have Thomas or Hunter.

Speaker 2 To think that jacoby meyer is going to be the

Speaker 2 they had to go in that direction

Speaker 1 yeah like i watched the raiders game last week and i don't remember him doing anything

Speaker 1 i remember brock bowers doing stuff sure by the way i forgot to mention during the indie thing i i was so mad i missed this on tuesday a couple people mentioned it to me um new owner syndrome with the Sauce Gardner trade.

Speaker 1 It was a basketball trade.

Speaker 2 Very good. Very good.
I love it.

Speaker 1 The daughters took over the team. Everybody loves the daughters.
This was like, ah, we got a Sauce Gardner. Let's go get him.
It was like a new owner. It was a classic new owner trade.

Speaker 2 It really was.

Speaker 1 Two firsts and Gardner for Sauce Gardner. We got to do this.

Speaker 1 Houston's defense is top six everywhere. Yeah.

Speaker 1 I just feel like the defense wins the game. Okay.
Mills makes two throws. Okay.

Speaker 1 They're going to be able to run the ball.

Speaker 1 It's minus, is it still minus one and a half?

Speaker 1 It's minus one and a half.

Speaker 2 Wait, the Texans are our underdogs in this game. Did it flip again?

Speaker 1 It's flip? I'm telling you. No, yeah, their Texans are underdogs again.

Speaker 1 They were favored four hours ago.

Speaker 2 Well, for what are Ringer 107 purposes, what are they?

Speaker 1 They're

Speaker 1 plus 1.5.

Speaker 2 So they're underdogs. There you go.
Yeah, they're underdogs. That's what we want.
Okay.

Speaker 1 All right, we're going to take a break and then House and I are going to come back and figure out the Ringer 107 once and for all. This episode is sponsored by BetterHelp.

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Speaker 1 That's j-o-i-n-b-i-l-t dot com slash bill. All right, today's Ringer 107.
It's brought to you by FanDuel. We have five picks that we like that we figured out over the, over the long commercial break.

Speaker 1 You'll have no idea how long it was. This is House's pick.
I'm going to pass. House gets a pick every week.
House, you picked the Bucks minus two and a half over the Patriots. What was your case?

Speaker 2 The case is the case that you made for

Speaker 2 New England. It's a tough spot.

Speaker 2 It's Tampa coming off of a bye, restored health, a lot of skill positions, even with Bucky Irving still missing, upper class for New England. New England's been impressive, but this is

Speaker 2 a real heavyweight that needs to win games to finish out the season. So I like Tampa at home.

Speaker 1 Yeah, the Pats can come out of this and still be only three losses in with only a couple games left in this season that are hard and in two Jets games as well.

Speaker 1 Yeah, it's a tough spot. I'd be put this way, I'd be very surprised if the Pats won this game with

Speaker 1 some of the injuries on offense, with the way they blocked the last couple weeks, 17 sacks in three weeks, with the way they've been covering tight ends and running backs.

Speaker 1 This is a tough spot for them.

Speaker 1 Next pick, we're going to do a little parlay.

Speaker 1 Ravens down to minus two and a half in Minnesota. So Ravens have to win by three in a must-win game.

Speaker 1 And if you believe the Ravens are still a Super Bowl contender, there's no way they can't win this game against J.J. McCarthy in Minnesota.

Speaker 1 And we're going to put that with the Bills' money line against the Miami Dolphins. And that is exactly minus 120.

Speaker 1 House, we barely made it. If it had been one inch another way, we lose that parlay.
So anyway, that's minus 120. Ravens minus 200.
Bills' money line.

Speaker 1 And I could see both of those where both teams win by like two touchdowns. Me too.
I feel like we're going to be smooth sailing with that parlay. Next one is another Joe House favorite.

Speaker 1 It's the Eagles plus two and a half in Green Bay, and I agree.

Speaker 1 The craft injury, the uncertainty in the wide receiver room, the Eagles kind of needing to play a good game. All of their stats are like, eh.

Speaker 2 It's the pass rush for the Eagles that I think we're going to see for the first time. Remember how dominant they were down the stretch and through the playoffs? We have the return of Nolan Smith.

Speaker 2 We have the additional. We did Ramback, Jalen Philips.

Speaker 2 Yeah, now we got some dudes. And look, this is the vulnerability of Green Bay.
Like, you know, they have the training wheels on Jordan Love because

Speaker 2 that offensive line isn't quite 28th in run block win rate, the Packers.

Speaker 2 So they don't intimidate you with establishing the run, Green Bay, and they can't set up play action because teams aren't taking the run serious.

Speaker 1 So Monday night game, too, for this. Yeah.

Speaker 1 Yeah, this is a nice Eagles.

Speaker 1 We've now reclaimed our territory spot. I like it.
So Eagles plus two and a half. That's our third pick.

Speaker 1 The Niners.

Speaker 1 This is my pick.

Speaker 1 I just think it's too many points.

Speaker 1 And I can only name four guys in their defense at this point.

Speaker 1 But Niners plus four and a half at home against the Rams. You're getting an extra three points from the missed field goal that the Rams are going to have during this game.
So it's a flash sale.

Speaker 1 It's really, you're getting it at nine or seven and a half.

Speaker 1 I just think these games are going to be close with all these NFC West games.

Speaker 1 I just feel like that's how it's going to go all season. They're all going to come down to the wire.

Speaker 1 Maybe Seattle can elevate above these teams, but

Speaker 1 you know, if the Niners lose, it's a little bit of a,

Speaker 1 I hate the word must-win, but it's, it's a, you don't want to go six and four,

Speaker 2 lose, yeah, but they stole their split with the Rams.

Speaker 2 They stole that split

Speaker 2 by winning in week five the way they did.

Speaker 2 Yeah.

Speaker 1 I just don't want to be six and four with half my team in the hospital.

Speaker 2 Fair enough.

Speaker 1 And then if you're the Rams, it's a little bit of a must-win because you don't want to lose every tiebreaker to the Niners potentially, but I don't know.

Speaker 1 It feels like there's some voodoo against the Niners.

Speaker 1 Fando asking me to cash out of my Niners under 10.5 made me suspicious.

Speaker 1 We'll see if they can fight the voodoo off this week. Texans, plus one and a half at home against the Jaguars.
Trevor Lawrence favored

Speaker 1 in Houston against one of the three best defenses in the league.

Speaker 2 What are we doing? Nope, nope, nope.

Speaker 1 Here's my impression of Trevor in the third quarter.

Speaker 1 Here's my impression of Trevor in the fourth quarter.

Speaker 2 Eyes on the back of the head,

Speaker 2 hands covering the eyes, hands covering the back of the head.

Speaker 1 D'Amico Ryans owes us too.

Speaker 1 A little bit. He owes us.
A little bit.

Speaker 1 The

Speaker 1 14-second drive with the minute 14 left on your own 10-yard line.

Speaker 1 My word.

Speaker 1 So anyway, we're taking the Texans plus one and a half. So to recap, Bucks minus two and a half.
Ravens minus two and a half with Bills money line. Parlay minus 120.

Speaker 1 Eagles plus two and a half. Niners plus four and a half.
Texans plus one and a half. I like that we have a couple home dogs this week too.

Speaker 2 I feel the same way.

Speaker 1 Some home cooking. And I can't believe we win against my team.
But that was the Ringer 107 and it was

Speaker 1 presented by FanDuel. Did you like the Sauce Gardner trade?

Speaker 2 I did.

Speaker 2 I understand the

Speaker 1 mark for trading multiple firsts for a good player. You've always loved that.

Speaker 2 Because he's a good player. Like you don't have to wonder.

Speaker 2 He's a first-round pick that is like,

Speaker 2 how many of those first-round picks that they traded are going to be as good as Sauce Gardner? Tell me the answer to that, and then we can assess this. But look, this Colts team

Speaker 2 recognizes the window and recognizes they have an, it's the part of their team that is, you know, the most vulnerable because of injury and, you know, the talent that they had there.

Speaker 2 I have absolutely no issue whatsoever with them going for it.

Speaker 1 It's kind of like when you went and got Marshawn Lattimer last year.

Speaker 2 It was

Speaker 1 one of your favorite commanders.

Speaker 2 That's not true. And good luck to him and the rest of his, I don't think he's going to have much of a football career after this, but to the rest of

Speaker 2 whatever happens to him in life, good luck to him.

Speaker 1 Can we talk about the guillotine league really fast? Go ahead.

Speaker 2 Before we go. Go ahead.

Speaker 1 Are you still alive in the guillotine league?

Speaker 2 You took all of my good players. I I had

Speaker 2 the beauty of the guillotine. I had a great team.
I mean, I had an amazing team. I just hit a week.
I had Bijan Robinson going up against the Dolphins and he produced four fantasy points.

Speaker 2 I had Caleb Williams in a good situation. Oh, yeah.
I can't remember.

Speaker 2 You took all my guys. I had Bucky Urbane.

Speaker 1 So there's two strategies. One is in the guillotine league, for people that don't know.

Speaker 1 You start out with 17 teams, 16 teams, however many teams you want to have. Lois team every week gets voted out.
So we were, we start out.

Speaker 2 You're voted out, it just gets cut.

Speaker 1 Well, it's just cut. You're just cruelly.

Speaker 1 That's it. And your players become available and people can bid on them.
And there's two ways it can go.

Speaker 1 One is you have a thousand bucks to spend bidding war for the guys like when Bijan Robinson becomes available, or you try to get KG

Speaker 1 and see how long you can last with the team you picked, pick around the edges, but kind of wait until there's less teams. And I chose the latter strategy and almost lost twice.

Speaker 1 Like, I probably should have lost. I don't really think I should be alive, but I lucked out.

Speaker 2 I had

Speaker 2 barely made it.

Speaker 2 You beat me on Monday night football with Isaiah Pacheco running for 48 yards or whatever. That's how I did it.

Speaker 1 And we both had terrible weeks and I barely edged you out. But I had the most money this week.

Speaker 1 And somebody's team got cut.

Speaker 1 And all of a sudden, it was Josh Allen was available and James Cook and Jamar Jamar Chase and Jalen Waddell, all these dudes. And I had the most money.
I had like 630 bucks.

Speaker 1 Jeff Chow had 500.

Speaker 1 And then nobody else had more than like 180. Yeah.
And so I was like planning it out. And I actually outwitted Jeff Chow, who runs business for the ringer in Spotify Studios.

Speaker 1 I outwitted him just flat out. I bid 251 for Josh Allen and 251 for James Cook, thinking Jeff would go for one, beat him on both of those and then got Jamar Chase too.

Speaker 1 And now I'm in the driver's seat. And I just stuck it to Jeff Chow.
It was great.

Speaker 1 Mr. Business.
Yeah. Who's the business guy now?

Speaker 2 I don't, I don't. Yeah.
I don't, I'm not privy. Once you get cut, you can't go back and look.
And honestly, I don't know why I would. But what did he bid? What Chow bid on those guys? I don't know.

Speaker 1 You know what he bid? Not enough.

Speaker 1 So here's my team:

Speaker 1 Josh Allen, Jameer Gibbs, James Cook, Ameka Abuka, Quentin Johnston, George Kittle, Sam Laporta, and DK Metcalf.

Speaker 2 It's a pretty good team.

Speaker 1 That's a pretty good one. It's pretty good.
And this is what happens if you can somehow survive and then go all in and like week nine, week 10.

Speaker 1 But now that everyone knows that strategy, I don't know what the counter strategy is to that. I guess it would be just be drafting.

Speaker 2 Don't have guys get hurt. That's, that's, you know.

Speaker 1 Well, that's the thing. The other guillotine league I was in, we had Lamar and he got hurt in week four.

Speaker 2 And it was like, so you're done. That's right.

Speaker 1 Yeah, you're done. You got to get a little healthy.
But you liked it, though.

Speaker 2 I loved it. You kidding me? I did a good job drafting.
I was very proud of myself.

Speaker 2 You just catch a dry week and you're done. You just go home.

Speaker 1 I'd rather be done versus like have the carcass of my mediocre fantasy team drag on for 14 weeks.

Speaker 2 You know what I mean? I have a, I'm in a league where my team is one and eight. I did an auto draft and the rankings that it was CBS.
I'll call them out. I mean, it was an abomination.

Speaker 2 They should be embarrassed claiming that they have fantasy experts. All I did was hit auto-draft and went to like the 10th overall pick in a

Speaker 2 non-PPR league. They gave me Lamar Jackson.
Like, what?

Speaker 2 I need a fucking running back at the 10th pick. Whoever the best running.

Speaker 1 Well, couldn't you have said that in your settings?

Speaker 2 This is the point of auto draft.

Speaker 2 Right. You're the fucking expert.
You're a good person.

Speaker 2 will make this better.

Speaker 1 Maybe this will be, maybe AI will be used for some good.

Speaker 2 So stupid. So it's fine, but I do diligently set a lineup every week because I have integrity and it's for the integrity of the league.
I mean, I made six trades in or acquisitions this past week.

Speaker 2 But yes.

Speaker 1 Did you just praise yourself for making moves in a fantasy league?

Speaker 2 Just maintaining the integrity of the league, not just walking away from my hot trash auto-draft CBS bot, go go fuck yourself hot garbage uh

Speaker 2 scenario

Speaker 1 hey one other thing before we go it looks like it looks like the uh Sunday ringer pregame show

Speaker 1 is going to be available on all the FanDuel

Speaker 1 RSNs let's go how about that so if you have one of those fan duel RSNs

Speaker 2 where

Speaker 1 you know, like you see Golik and Golak ads or you have that, like that's usually one of them.

Speaker 1 We're going to be on those and we're going to be on them with the Ringer gambling show as well so a little extra a little extra market share a great way to spend your sunday morning all we do is we have it's 11 winners it's 11 a.m this week though we're starting early 11 it's a two-hour show now 11 a.m why can't we start at 10 all the way to kickoff fine yeah start at 9 30.

Speaker 1 i'm here we're doing the we're doing the games we're trying to give out winners there's a good chance i'll be sitting in some airport watching it because my flight's been delayed for 19 hours you might have to host guest Alliance with Just Alan.

Speaker 1 Just come down to DC.

Speaker 2 You can have a great time.

Speaker 1 That might have to do that.

Speaker 2 Come see Kornheiser. We'll have a great time together.

Speaker 1 Kornheiser.

Speaker 1 He's never leaving.

Speaker 2 Leaving what?

Speaker 1 He just signed again.

Speaker 2 Why? Why?

Speaker 1 It's a great life. He's been telling us he was going to retire for 10 years.

Speaker 2 He plays golf and he does the show. It's a great life.

Speaker 1 I really do. You have any farewell thoughts for ESPN BET?

Speaker 2 Oh, is it gone?

Speaker 1 It's gone.

Speaker 2 Oh, they're wrapping up. They tried.
They tried.

Speaker 1 Best of luck. Too late to the party.

Speaker 2 A little bit late.

Speaker 1 Yeah,

Speaker 1 it's a wrap.

Speaker 2 Okay. Anything else before we go?

Speaker 2 Nothing. Okay.
Some great golf in Europe.

Speaker 1 Great golf in Europe?

Speaker 2 Well, it's actually, it's the DP World Tour that is playing in their race to the whatever cup. I think they're in the Middle East.
They are in the Middle East.

Speaker 2 They're playing somewhere in Dubai, but all the best guys are playing. The entire Ryder Cup team for Europe is playing.

Speaker 2 Ah, the team you win. John Rahm

Speaker 2 and Tyrrell Hattie. It was your team.

Speaker 1 Those are your guys. Yep.
All right, House. Good times.
So my favorite NBA trade that I came up with was which one?

Speaker 2 What was the last one? Well, honestly.

Speaker 1 Kobe Jones, Kobe Waite.

Speaker 2 No, I like John Morant to Miami better.

Speaker 1 So So that was the chalk one.

Speaker 2 Makes a lot of sense.

Speaker 1 It's a winner for content. All right.
See you, House.

Speaker 1 All right. That's it for the podcast.
Thanks to House and Gahal and Eduardo as well. I am going to hopefully have a podcast on Sunday.
I'm flying back on Sunday to the West Coast.

Speaker 1 Is this going to be a good idea with what's going on with airports right now? We're about to find out. So if you see me Sunday night, I'll be happy.
You'll be happy.

Speaker 1 Everyone will will be happy have a great weekend

Speaker 1 must be 21 plus and president in select states for kansas in affiliation with kansas star casino or 18 plus in president in dc kentucky or wyoming gambling problem call 100 gambler visit rg-help.com call 888-79-7777 or visit ccpg.org/slash chat in Connecticut or mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland.

Speaker 1 Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24-7 support in Massachusetts or call 877-8 HOPE-NY or text Hope NY in New York.