Guess the 2025 NFL Over/Under Win Totals With Cousin Sal

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I put up a Prestige TV podcast yesterday. We covered the studio, the first two episodes.
People like the show. Me, Sean Fantasy, Joanna Robbins talked about that.
I'm also going to be there on Sunday Night, White Lotus, episode seven. We already have that one in the bank.
It's the last one we were able to tape ahead of time because it looks like no screeners for the last episode, the 90-minute one So we're going to be doing that live, uh, two Sundays from now, uh, new rewatchables coming Monday night. We are doing, I'm in Boston right now.
We're doing a Goodwill hunting tonight. So you can hear that as a podcast of the live show on Monday night.
And then we're sticking around all weekend. Coolidge corner, um, a place that I lived for a little bit once upon a time.
We're doing a little Coolidge Corner film festival. They have a theater that's been there forever and they've actually taken care of it.
And it's one of the best places to see movies in Boston. So we're showing heist movies, Boston movies all day, Friday, Saturday, Sunday.
I think we did nine movies total. Me and Sean and Chris are going to be there for a couple of them to talk afterwards.
So if you're interested, I think there might be some tickets left. It's theringer.com slash events to go check that out.
So this is fun. This is like an unexpected Christmas.
NFL win total over-unders came out today and cousin Sal and I decided we missed Guess the Lions. We're just going to do it again.
We're going to play guest aligns with the overrunners.

We intentionally did not look at them.

They came out on Fandle right before we taped this podcast.

And that's what you're about to hear.

But first Pearl Jip. All right, taping this on a Thursday.
Cousin Sal is here. Normally we just play Guess the Lions during the NFL season.
We haven't seen Sal since the Super Bowl. the saddest look on his face every year, knowing that it's come to an end.
And now we came up with a new idea Thursday. I'm doing a pod.
You were available. Fandle dropping NFL over under win total.
So we said last night, I'm not going to look. You're not going to look.
And we're going to do guess the lines. We made our guesses and we're going to go through every team and see what our instincts were.
What do you think? This is a spectacular day, a new day in our calendar. Hopefully we can keep doing this.
I mean, I've been sick all week. I was in Vegas.
I come back from Vegas. I'm sick every time now.
It's like, you come back with syphilis. I just have a cold and it doesn't help being next to nephew Kyle fires up like 37 lung darts in 18 hours.
It kills my throat. But anyway, I got some pep in my step.
This is one of the five. If they should do this, Vandals should release the win total over-unders the last Thursday in March.
This would be one of the five best non-football sports days of the year. I mean, between March Madness, the four Sweet 16 games, opening day baseball, and preseason over-under win totals.
Are you kidding me? This is great. Yeah, we should have gone live.
This should have been an event. It should have been like when the NFL releases the schedule.
We should have been the one announcing the Fandu over-unders for each team. Trying to guess what they were.
Yeah, we'll work on this. I think next year we can do an even bigger version of it.

I know you go right from football just to a series of wagering on sports

you don't really know that well than basketball.

I'm sure you made a shitload of preseason baseball bets, March Madness.

Yeah.

You got some golf coming.

There's some weird tennis stuff happening.

What's the dumbest thing you've bet on in the last six years? I have Joker in the Miami Open. I have to wake up and bet soccer.
And now there's like, you have to have like nine streaming services to have all the soccer capabilities for the world to worldwide gamble on it. But yeah, that's basically it.
Just nonsensical soccer in the morning. Like what country?

What region of the world are we in?

All of them.

All of them.

The ones-

All the parts of the world?

Yes.

Is Greenland a country or do they belong to us now?

I don't know.

I bet them all.

It's a continent?

I don't know.

Did they are 51st state?

I haven't checked.

Our cherished 51st state.

Yes.

Yeah.

Were you able to bet on Stephen A versus LeBron?

Is there like a future bet there? Who's favored? Stephen no mistake. Stephen A.
would swing at him. He would.
That's the biggest thing I've ever heard. Stephen A., they started first take today.
Two-minute intro from the show credits of Molly and went to Stephen A. 17 straight minutes.
And it was incredible, compelling TV. He's an artist.
Was it really? I was really into it.

Yeah, I really enjoyed it. He's really good.

Yeah. I don't know where

this goes, but I'll tell you this.

If you're going to do the who has more to

lose sweepstakes, I'm going to say LeBron

has more to lose if this just gets worse

and worse and worse. Interesting.

Really? Yeah.

I'm not saying he has more to lose. I'm saying

he's just more famous. This is great.
I'll keep this going as long as you want. I don't know that LeBron's more.
Stephen A. could be our next president.
I don't know who's more famous. Maybe that's how Stephen A.
wins. He becomes the next president, and he abolishes the NBA max contract.
That'll be his first thing. Okay.
NFL regular season win totals.

So we're going to go by,

you want to go alphabetically

or you want to go by divisions?

I don't know.

Probably divisions.

I mean, I really like to do 15 minutes

on Jokic's no look pass

and another 20 on whether

Steph's tunnel shot went in.

But okay, if you want to get right into it,

it's fine.

The tunnel shot.

Is that Steph's fault that it was Senate? Like, should he have retweeted the angle and said that it didn't actually go in? He needs to apologize. I was saying that he's no longer a first ballot Hall of Famer.
I mean, he now drops to two or three. But I thought my favorite thing about it is typical NBA fashion.
It took three days to review. Like, why didn't we get that second angle an hour later? We found out on Thursday.
Mark Davis is still at the monitor. Okay.
Let's do divisions. We'll start with the AFCs.
Buffalo Bills. They went 13-4.
We're going to tell you the only things that we know that we did work on were what other two divisions each team is playing. Right.
So the Buffalo Bills were 13-4 last year.

Next year, they're playing the AFC North.

Not awesome.

NFC South, pretty good.

So I'm going to say that's about an average

degree. Yeah, it's a wash.

I think that's fair. And we should also

say, we may have

some leans here, but these aren't our official

picks. You don't want to tarnish your

27-5 last year? Yeah, I'm going to go 5-27 next year. I'll never top 27-5.
So we're still missing two key components. We haven't seen the draft, obviously, and we don't know the schedule.
We know who everybody plays. We don't know rest advantage.
We don't know who has three road games in a row and stuff like that. Those are crucial.
We don't know what's happening in the draft. None of this stuff.

We're trying to guess what do we think FanDuel

thought would be the perfect over-under? Because the goal of this, when they're putting out

these over-unders in March, how do we get the most action both ways in the over-under?

Last year, Dallas, they put a win too high.

I'm sorry it was your team, but everybody bet the under.

Everybody kept that in the under, and they had to move it from 10.5 to 9.5, which was

the They put it a win too high. Everybody bet.
Well, I'm sorry it was your team, but everybody bet the under. Everybody kept that in the under and they had to move it from 10 and a half to nine and a half, which was a really bad sign.
So one of the things we're interested this year is snapshot of in March when this comes out. And then how does it shift? They'll start putting action.
If people are banging the over, like if people start banging the Patriots over, they'll make it a minus 140, minus 145. So you'll get a sense of like, oh, who is America really starting to get behind? Which can either be a good thing or a bad thing.
So Buffalo, I went with 11.5, so. 11 and a half wins as the over-under.
What'd you have? I said 12. And again, I'm looking at these for the first time.
You can't say 12, you have to do a 0.5, right? No, no, no. Half of them were regular square numbers.
Oh, really? Oh, I didn't even know we were doing that. Okay.
Yeah, I wrote down the last years. They were like, you were right though, of course.
So the cheating right off the top. Oh, okay.
Worked out. 11 and a half.
I knew this would be a new way for you to get bad. Meanwhile, you won Guess the Lions last year and there's been a lot of talk about you and whether you've been cheating.
This doesn't count. This doesn't count for anything.
Like, are you using PDs? What's going on over there? So they went, they had 13 wins last year and it's 11 and a half. And that's to say that the division got better or you just can't make them 12.
I don't know. Well, we should also mention, this is crucial too, minus 140 already.
For the over. At least I'm in Boston, so I can bet it.
And I could do a live bet as we're talking. But minus 140 already, which makes me wonder do they bump that at some point.
But I think Miami's probably a little, either the same or a little worse than last year. Jets, who knows? The Pats are the only one that you could say they'll definitely be better.
As far as we can tell, Buffalo didn't get worse. I think they're fine.
I think what they have out of Bosa is good. They just need...
They're going to get the seven Bosa games. Yeah.
That's good.. That's good.
I mean, he's definitely going to miss time, but they extended Allen,

which is great. I mean,

11.5, 12 is fine, so you get it.

Oh, I forgot to mention

one variable that you have to factor in is the

schedule. So we're doing this by how they

finished last year. So AFC is Buffalo's

first place schedule next year. They'll have a bunch

of night games, so

all that stuff. Miami, 8-9 last year.
AFC North, NFC South, second place schedule next year. They'll have a bunch of night games.
All that stuff. Miami, 8-9 last year.
AFC North, NFC South. Second place schedule.
Whatever this is, I might make a live underbet right now. What do you have for this one? I have nine.
Nine? Wow, you really went round numbers. Yeah.
About half of mine. I got more halves.
I might be low. I might be low.
Yeah. They're eight and nine.
I might be low. I said seven and a half.
I don't like the vibe of that Dolphins team at all. And the answer is eight and a half.
Eight and a half. So I get it.
I'm going under. Yeah, that's a guaranteed under for me.
Well, they had eight last year. You want to imitate JJ talking about this, or should I do it? Go ahead, you do it.
You start. I'll jump in.
I don't know, bro. Eight and a half's low.
It's a must-win season for McDaniel. It's a must-win.
It's got to win 10 games, or is that keeping his job, bro? You're going to tell me Zach Wilson is going to step in there and do the job? I'm not buying it. I'm not buying it for sure.
That's a discussion for a different day. All right.
Eight and a half. Even money both ways.
My prediction is that's going to be an under bet for a lot of people. All right.
Jets are next. They were 5-12.
Third place scheduled next year.

Justin Fields now a quarterback.

Seventh pick in the draft. We'll see what they do

with that. The one thing that

could affect this is if they take

Shadar Sanders with the seventh pick

and basically get nothing out of

that first round pick because they already took

Fields.

Fields, yeah.

I'm going to say six and a half for these guys. What do you have? I get this.
I said six. Did you see it? It is five and a half.
Wow. Amazing.
It was nine and a half with Rodgers. It's five and a half with Justin Fields.
They went way too high on Rodgers, which we know. But five and a half.
What a slap in the effing Empire State Building face. I think that's too low.
Don't you? New coach, Aaron Glenn. Fields, different look than Rodgers, but not necessarily a worse look.
Seventh pick in the draft.

I don't know.

I haven't seen... All right, so how many games will they be favored in?

One in their division?

Yeah, maybe the home Pats game,

the home Dolphins game, maybe.

None of the AFC North games, probably.

No.

A couple other than the NFC South.

Carolina, if it's home against Carolina?

Yeah, I think that's about fair. If it's home against New Orleans? Ah, what a mess.
And then maybe one other shit team? All right. All right, this is the most exciting one.
The Patriots, 4-13. New coach.
Just spent money all over the place on a bunch of different positions. The fourth pick in the draft.
Seems like about a 50-50 chance they're getting Abdul Carter or Travis Hunter. Drake May year two.

To say the coaching staff will be better is an understatement.

And they're going to have a fourth place schedule and they get to play the NFC South.

There's a lot of things lining up for them to be the Washington.

This could be 10 and a half and you're going over.

10 and a half I'd be insulted.

I think it should be 12 and a half.

What do you have?

I have seven and a half. Yeah, that's what I had too.
And the answer is seven and a half. All right.
That's fine. That's fair.
Minus 115 already. All right.
So we're two, you're up 211 with me right now. Yeah.
Does that go up? What if they get Abdul Carter or Chantar in the draft? Does that go up? Well, you're very influential and I know you're, I'm not influential with this. You're over the moon about Stefan Diggs.
You got your way there. I'm not that one.
I'm not. I'll work by the, by the end of April, I'll be over the moon on the Dick signing.
Right now, I'm kind of still confused.

Although it does seem like they can get out of it after a year.

But the 32-year-old receiver coming off ACL surgery, I don't know.

You're not going to be in a spot where you're going to want to lose that last game,

which is where you were,

which one would typically go over some of these teams over-unders.

You have to factor that in.

And no, I think you could be an 8-9 team.

You should be happy with 8-9 in Drake May's second year.

Well, the question is, could you be better than that?

And that's what we said with Washington last year,

where they checked every box and both of us were,

we both jumped on the over.

But we kind of drew the line at, could they be a playoff team?

You need to watch in the NFL.

Denver type situation, right?

I think your situation is even closer to Denver, even though I know Nick's was a rookie coming in, but older, whatever. Yeah, I think that's kind of what you have to do.
Sneak up there. It's the recipe that works every year.
And the question is whether it's the Patriots or another crappy team making the jump. It's, did you improve your coach? Do you have a QB? Is your schedule easy?

If you have those three things, it becomes very realistic to go from four to ten

wins. We see it all the time.

And I think they're a great candidate for this.

I mean, you already

sold the nine-part documentary

for the 2025 Patriots.

So, I mean, good job by you,

I guess. Did they greenlight that yet?

Yeah. It's just about Drake May.
It's not about the Patriots. We're just with, it's like Truman Show.
Remember that movie, Truman Show? It's that with Drake May. We just, we follow him around.
All right, we're going to take a quick break and then we're going to do the rest of the divisions. This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra.
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All right, come back. We going to do the AFC North.
There's a world where this is the best division next year, depending on what happens with Cleveland. Like if they took Sanders at second and he was good right away with the rest of the team they have, maybe, I don't know.
Yeah, let's try to remember to add up the over-under wins to determine who's the best division. So yeah, we'll see.
This could have the most. Baltimore.
So the AFC North is playing the AFC East and the NFC North. Pretty tough.
Pretty tough. So for easy games, if the Bears are even mediocre to decent, there's no easy games in the NFC North.

And then in the AFC East, maybe the Jets,

maybe the Dolphins, maybe the Pats,

but maybe two of those three teams are pretty frisky.

So that's a pretty tough one.

Baltimore, first place schedule.

They're going to have Sunday night games,

Monday night games. They're in the running for a Christmas game,

a Thursday game.

They're going to have another monster schedule

because they want to put Lamar on TV. I predicted 11 and a half for this.
That's exactly what I said. Where are we? The answer is 11 and a half.
There's 11 and a half. Okay.
We got it. We split it.
And one time too. They're really, that's one of those.
If the schedule stuff was a little easier, I would have gone 12 and a5, but I think you almost have to do the docket by one game just because you know what's probably headed for them. They were 11 last year, and they won 12 games, so that's a nice settling spot for them.
Last year, Pittsburgh 10-7. Second place schedule.
We talked about the AFC East, NFC North, and as far as know they don't have a quarterback yet now they're running out of possibilities because the Giants signed two of the guys Rogers is still lurking and just seems like he's milking it there's Jackson Dart possibilities I guess maybe they wanted to try to Bo Nix that situation. Not a lot of other options after that,

unless they want to play the Mason Rudolph card.

And yet this is a team every year that goes over there over.

Do you think they factored that in with this over under pick or not?

You know,

it's weird with it.

They didn't.

So yesterday,

Russ signs with the giants and Fandles like,

all right,

so Rogers is the only missing piece at this point.

And probably to the Steelers. We don't give a shit.
We can't wait. We can't wait.
We're not going to move at a tick if he signs with Pittsburgh or not. I mean, what do they have? They have Rudolph and they have Skylar Thompson.
They should go for it. Go for it with those two.
That'll be fun. Or trade for not Kenny Pickett, but somebody of that ilk.
Yeah. Give up like a six-round pick.
It's pretty brutal. I can't believe they didn't figure this out.
So I guessed eight and a half. That's what it was last year.
Sounds great. What'd you have? I said seven and a half.
I don't like this team. You're right.
Seven and a half. Yeah.
Wow. doing better than me you're up you're plus 2 on me right now

and there's been

there's been some juice

already

that is minus

120

as we're taping this

it is 151 Pacific

which way?

East time

juice on the over

yeah

okay

because Mike Tomlin wins

9 or 10 games

every single year

and that's just what he does

yeah

I don't know

this is a tough schedule

I think

I think everybody knows

how to beat the Steelers Thank you. Mike Tomlin wins nine or 10 games every single year, and that's just what he does.
Yeah. I don't know.

This is a tough schedule.

I think everybody knows how to beat the Steelers now.

You need 17 points.

Go get it.

Maybe even 16.

Yeah.

Rodgers going to the Steelers is probably the most fun outcome

from a content standpoint.

And there's a chance that Steelers fans will just hate his guts by November. But we'll see how it goes.
Cincinnati. I had the hardest time with this one, I think, of anyone in the AFC.
They're playing the AFC East, NFC North. Third place schedule.
They re-sign their receivers. They have Burrow.
We'll see what happens with Hendrickson. Middle of the first round pick.

I couldn't get to the 10 range with them.

I went nine and a half.

Oh, wow.

All right.

I went 10 and a half.

I think they juiced this up because any fantasy player is not really paying attention to how bad their offensive line might be.

Wants to bet the over in the Bengals.

And it was 10 and a half last year.

What is it?

It is 10 and a half. You're fucking killing me.
Here we go. This is your new favorite game.
This is it. This counts as four.
Four weeks, I think. One thing with this one, though, there's already a lot of juice on the under.
It's minus 130, the under 10.5. So I might be right in two months.
I don't see 11 wins for this team. That's a lot.
That 11 wins makes them one of the four best teams in the AFC. And you would take Buffalo over them.
You would take KC over them. You would definitely take Baltimore over them.
And then it comes down to, would you take like, are they in the Texans Char Chargers kind of class? Or higher than that? Because that over-under says they're higher than that. I'm with you.
I'm as right about the Bengals as I am as wrong about the Browns. And I feel like betting them to win 11.
So it's going to be a tough schedule. They always get off to a slow start.
I said they lost Alex Kappa and Trent Brown. So it could be one of those years where Burroughs is running for his life.
So I don't love them with 11 wins. Yeah, we start.
I said they lost Alex Kappa and Trent Brown, so it could be one of those years where Burrow's running for his life. I don't love them with 11 wins.
We still don't know what's happened with Hendrickson. Cleveland, 3-14 last year, fourth place schedule, and no cap space whatsoever.
Kenny Pickett maybe is the quarterback, unless they take Sanders. I love what you said what you said that's the funniest trade ever pick it somehow Philly got like a six round pick out of it to trade pick it turn pick it into Dorian Thompson Robinson like a six rounder that's got to be it I I went low I went five and a half you know I know, I said five and a half too.
I'm regretting this. I think it could be even lower.
They're miserable. Nailed it.
Five and a half. Is it? Okay.
Yep. So, juice on that one too already.
Minus 125. So, people are banging the over.
If you're banging the over, there's a case for it. You have to think they're taking Sanders and that he's going to be good right away.
He's bowed next year for them. I don't know.
I guess that's the case. This is a weird year with the quarterbacks.
It really is. There might be actually too many quarterbacks versus teams that are going to take quarterbacks in the first round.
I know I'll be wrong because everybody takes quarterbacks early, but are the Browns and Titans definitely taking a quarterback or the Giants? Titans are. I think Titans.
I think Cam Ward is pretty locked into that one. All right.
McShay had some intel in his newsletter today that he thought there was a possibility the Giants were trying to trade up to one and basically got the word that Titans were taking Ward.

Everyone seems to think he's going first.

The odds reflect it.

Right now, he is minus 1,200 on FanDuel to be the first pick.

I thought I'd go for some of those.

I put money on Dart and Sanders just thinking,

like, maybe someone does something really stupid here.

Because I don't feel like we've heard a lot about...

I know Ward's getting a little bit buzzed,

but not to warrant minus 1,200. I told our guy Jack at FanDuel.
I said I wanted them to have the Bill Simmons runs around his house with his arms up in the air screaming euphorically, 1, 2, 3, 4 draft scenario that I want to be able to bet. Ward goes first.
Cleveland takes Sanders second. Giants take Travis Hunter third.
And then we get Abdul Carter fourth. And that, I'm running around my house like this.
That's fine. And I want to be able...
And by the way, we should be able to bet that. They don't have the exact order of draft things yet because I think it's too far away.
They usually do it two weeks before the draft. I want it now.
Yeah. We're within a month.
Like, fucking put it up. Let's go.
I want to bet all kinds of scenarios. Bangs his shoulder on the fridge, separates it much like Abdul Carter.
Hey, come on. Abdul's fine.
All right. AFC South.
Now, they're playing the AFC West and the NFC West this year. What are your thoughts on that? I think that's fine.

I think that's fine.

They play themselves.

So that's what's good.

That was a tepid endorsement.

Well, you know what?

I'm also looking at...

So let's add that up.

33 wins for the AFC East

and 35 for the AFC North. Oof.
Okay. Well, that number's about to drop for the AFC.
So, Houston 10-7 last year and then they're playing the West and the West. Yeah.
I think you could argue they're worse. Right? I don't know when Tank Dell's coming back.
Diggs is gone. He was gone anyway.
They traded Tunsell. They got a second round pick for him.
The AFC South, I'm assuming, will be a whiff better than it was last year. They're playing a first place schedule.
I wanted to go 10.5 and I couldn't get there. I went 9.5.
What'd you do? That's what I have. Is it 9.5? It can't be 10.
We'll see. I did think about the round 10 yep 9.5 ooh breaking you got it right yeah not only do we get it right minus 160 on the under so that's the biggest so the most action we've seen so far is that minus 160 Vegas doesn't like Houston.
They're a weird team, right? Fired their offensive coordinator. Yeah.
They should mow through this division. And they were in how confident were we in C.J.
Stroud last year? And then we didn't get that confidence back until like the first round of the playoffs. So it's strange.
They signed a lot of one-year players, Cam Robinson, Deneau Hunter, Trent Brown. We'll see what happens.
Indianapolis, 8-9 last year. Second place schedule.
Our guy, Dabundo, is a little higher on the Anthony Richardson. Don't count this guy out.
He was banged up last year. This is going to be the FU comeback year for Richardson.
If that doesn't happen, Daniel Dimes is right behind him. What'd you go? I want to have an opinion about Jones.
I'm not there yet, but I feel like I have no reason to support him, but maybe that was as disastrous a situation as you could come from. Giants, torn ACL Giants.
Yeah. Now coming to the Colts, maybe.
Maybe that's deal. Oh, sounds like you like it.
I have seven and a half. What'd you have? We're on par here.
Seven and a half for me too. And it's seven and a half.
And minus 110 both ways. Not a lot of Colts actually.
All right. So you're still up plus two on me, but we've nailed the last couple.
Okay. This one was a hard one.
Jacksonville, third-place schedule, West and West, 4-13 last year. You know, I don't know what this team does.
I don't understand it. Like, they waive Christian Kirk, and then they just signed another receiver for the money, and now they're paying two fine receivers, a double salary, basically.
Are you not excited about that, Amy Brown? I'm not. Fifth pick in the draft could be Gente.
Could be Tyler Warren. Everybody likes him as an awesome tight end.
They just keep throwing resources at the receiver position. It never happens.
But I was between five and a half and six and a half for this. New coach was the big thing for me.
And I went six and a half. What'd you have? Did I go too high with seven and a half? I just feel like all these teams are the same.
You did not go too high. Seven and a half.
Whoa. God, you're killing me.
You want to cash out? Hit the cash out button. Is there a bet back? What's that bet back thing Fendel has? Not only is it 7.5, minus 130.
So action on the Jaguars. What am I missing? Yeah.
What are we missing? I don't know. Just bad division? Bad division.
Bad owner, though, too. That's why you can't ever take them.
It doesn't ever seem to work out for them. Injuries or anything.
But I thought they were about the same as the Colts. I mean, they shouldn't be that much less than the Colts.
Our agent, James Babydoll Dixon, likes to wish luck from people. Wish luck to some people from time to time.
Some people recently got some luck. Oh, yeah.
Yeah, there's some people in the Hollywood industry who might have been phased out of their jobs.

There was luck was wished by James Babydoll Dixon.

I wish a lot.

I wish everyone a lot of luck going over Jacksonville minus seven and a half.

I'm just telling you right now.

That's insane.

I don't see it at all.

You really have to believe this is the year with Lawrence.

It's like it's now year six.

Like, yeah, I'm not saying it's not going to happen with him. It's like, it's now year six.
Like,

yeah,

I'm not saying it's not going to happen with him,

but I'm not betting that scenario.

Right.

I don't like it either,

but you know,

it all ends up being like,

they come up with a number of how many games they'll be favored in.

Right.

And so that's probably it playing that garbage division.

They'll be favored in every home game and they'll be favored against a couple

NFC West. At least two of the home games.
One, 3-14 last year. West and West, fourth-place schedule.
Cam Ward, we're assuming, they take him first. I don't know their offensive line situation, if it's much better than it was last year.
I was trying to think, is this the safest bet to be the worst team in the league in the AFC next year? Tennessee. Is there any team you like less? No.
And I don't know why I put this at five and a half. I think I regret that because they could make it nice and easy.
And well, I don't want to sway you you but did you go low? No I had so initially

I penciled in five and a half

and then after I did all the divisions

for the AFC and I was like

man who's the worst team?

Like there's gonna we see this every year

there's a four and a half there's a three and a half

and there's none of those in the AFC

that I had and so I ended

up with a four and a half so we'll

see the answer is five and a half. Wow.
Okay. Nailed me again.
This is my new thing. This is my jam.
Let's just keep doing this every week. Not only is it five and a half, it's up to minus one 30.
I wouldn't go over on that at all. So if you're doing that, you're expecting Cam Ward to get drafted and be good right away.
Right. And you're going to say like rookie Cam Ward is significantly better than Will Levis,

which it's not inconceivable.

No, I'm still having nightmares of that game one.

I bet against Caleb Williams, who was supposed to be the rookie.

I bet Will Levis had a giant lead on the Bears.

And then Will Levis is throwing passes from his ass.

Right.

Staring at pick sixes. It's just not a good team.
My favorite with that with you is when you then get mad at Will Levis like this was his fault. Like you bet on him.
It's like, I can't believe this Will Levis. It's like, you can't? No size at all? He might shouldn't be there today? He threw the game.
If we were to write down three games that players threw, quote, whatever. I know, Fandle, we're not getting in trouble.

That's the one. That felt like what it would

have looked like if somebody actually...

Yeah, I see. Right, if you had made a movie

about it, that's what it would look like.

Well, here's the thing. We only had

the Jets at five and a half,

Cleveland at five and a half, and Tennessee

at five and a half so far. We have no four and a half.

So one of those three

will be at four and a half by June or July

because that's just how this shit goes.

That's right. That's fair.
So just to recap,

East, 33 wins.

North, 35.

South, 30.

Okay.

Going

to the AFC West,

which

might be good for all we know. Kansas City, 15-2 last year, playing the AFC South and the NFC East.
So you're talking Giants are going to suck. Three of those AFC South teams might suck.
Houston might not be very good.

Sorry, your Dallas team might not be very good.

And Washington and Philly would be the two hard games

out of those eight.

But they'll have the first-place schedule.

They're going to be in all the night games.

But that's about as good of a...

Is there a better division draw than AFC South,

NFC East?

Maybe West?

NFC West, AFC South?

That's pretty good.

I think one of the teams has both Souths. I think that's in the NFC,, AFC South? That's pretty good.
Those would be two to three I would want. One of the teams has both Souths.

I think that's in the NFC, but one of the divisions.

So I went 12 and a half for this.

That's what I did.

And I wonder if it's even light.

Tell me what it is.

It's light.

It's 11 and a half.

That's wrong.

That's very weird.

Do your spiel.

Just do it. You do it every year.
What, just to bet Chiefs at 6-1 bet Mahomes 6-1 just do all of them well well first of all like everything you say they go through they had 15 freaking wins last year every year they have a first play schedule every year they possibly play the first Thursday night game every year they're going to Christmas. Every year, they're going to have six primetime games.
They end up with 13, 14, 15 wins. How do you make this 11 and a half? They won the division by four games last year.
All right, the Chargers might be a little better. Raiders a tiny bit better.
Is Denver going to be better? I'm all in on over 11 and a half. That is embarrassing.
That's balling board material. Super Bowl 7-1 for them.
Mahomes 8-1 MVP. Yeah.
At the Mahomes layaway MVP bet plan, was that your idea or how's this? I can't remember. I mean, I'm not going to.
It should be out there for everybody. I just do it.
Just bet that every year and it'll win three out of five times. Yeah, the KCD, like a CD, like a savings.
But yeah, that's right. You're not going to wait seven or eight years to cash in on those.
Or Chiefs plus 360 to win the conference. Just do it.
Just do it every year. You win three out of the four years and you're getting incredible multiples on youragers.
And they had a decent offseason with the free agents. They lost Tooney

but they got Nick Bolt

they extended Bolton, Jalen Moore

Trey Smith, they franchise tag

they're going to be fine.

I'm

marking that one down.

I feel like that's 11 and a half

that's 11 and a half for what?

Another week? Come on. What are we doing? Chargers, 11 and six.
Second place schedule. AFC South, NFC East.
And I don't know. They lost some guys.
Now, some guys weren't playing full seasons for them. Right.
The wide receiver room. We'll see what they do in the draft.

Running back,

I don't know. There's some scope position stuff.
Last year, easy schedule.

Overachieved.

The season did not end

great.

And yet, I felt

like it's going to be 10.5 because of Harbaugh

and Herbert. What'd you have?

Wow. I had 9.5.
I don't know. I think that's tough.
And you hit it again. You're up four.
Wow. Jesus.
Look at this. Look at this.
Nine and a half. 10 and a half.
Huh? If the Chiefs are 11 and a half and you thought, I don't know. There's still the Chargers.
Remember, right? So my thinking was the Harbaugh year two. They weren't supposed to be as good as they were last year, but they were able to on the fly add some dudes, and now one more free agency in draft.
Could the arrow be pointing up? But Vegas is saying no. I don't want to screw anything up, but I know some Chargers people.
They like the tight end out of Michigan. Love one.
Oh, okay. That could be a nice little thing for them.
Denver was 10-7 last year, playing a third place schedule because the Chargers passed them. That's helpful.
And we have them AFC South, NFC East. I went 8.5.
Would you go? Yeah, I'm right there with you. Eight and a half.
It's got to be eight and a half. It's eight and a half.
Minus 105, so just a whiff of action on that one toward the under. And then last but not least, this one's a hard one.
The Las Vegas Raiders. They get Geno Smith and they got rid of our guy Antonio Pierce.
Yeah. Who I don't feel like is probably getting hired anytime soon for another head gig, just be my guess.
And they replaced him with a Pumpkin Jack P. Carroll.
Right. A lot of gum chewing.
Max Crosby gets extended. Fourth place schedule.
Plus AFC South, plus NFC East. And by your theory, you think, at least in the home games, they might be favored like five times.
Yeah. I went five and a half.
Oh, I went a little higher. There was six and a half last year.
I think they may perceive this Geno Smith thing as an upgrade

even though they only had four ones.

I said six and a half.

And you nailed it exactly. And not only did you

nail it, minus 130

now action on the Raiders.

I should have seen that one. Interesting.

You're killing me. You beat me by

five. So this is the

I'm firing all my scouts and all

my helpers.

I don't know why I'm just off left and right. Or here's the thing.
Maybe I'm not off. Maybe we'll look back in December and be like, oh, Simmons's first instinct.
Maybe we should. Well, that's what you should do.
You should mark your biggest differences and say, hey, that's going to be. So 36 wins for that division.
That's the tops. That's more than the AFC North projected.
36 for the West. And by the way, God bless Pete Carroll, but he's in his mid-70s.
Geno Smith, 34 years old. I'm not sure if the offensive line, would you even go C-plus on the offensive line? Bowers, we like.
But yeah, there was a lot of work left with that team.

They're still fourth best in the division,

and there's still two games behind Denver, according to this.

I mean, they just drew the short straw with that division

is the big issue.

He's six games. All those games are going to stink.

All right, one more break, and then we'll do the NFC.

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All right. During that commercial break, I licked my wounds.
I fired two people. And trying to come back, there's only 16 teams left, and you're up five.
You found your calling. You found the perfect game.
And you're cheating. Duke was in your corner and he almost didn't let you out for the seventh round here.
And you're like, no, no, no. Don't you dare throw that towel in.
But all right. Let's see what you got.
He thinks it's a damn show. He thinks it's a damn fight.
Philadelphia are defending Super Bowl champions. I know that kills you just to hear those words.
Disgusting. And guess what? They have endless amounts of money to just...
I know they lost some starters. They didn't lose any of their best eight or nine guys.
I'm with you, man. It doesn't make sense.
I don't get it. I don't care.
I get people... I have smart people telling me, oh, just follow the money.
It's like, no. Just roll it over and just keep rolling it over.
And the bill is due eventually. Okay, cool.
Creative accounting. It's what the Niners did.
I know it's sour grapes, but whatever. They're paying $50 million a year for the QB, $57 million for the two receivers, and now $12 million a year for Saquon Barkley.
Somehow that's all legal under the cap. They have Jalen Carter coming.
They paid Bond, who's like, oh yeah, oh my God, somebody's going to grab him. Nope.
They kept him. But I get the model because you have to just keep nailing the draft.
You let the veterans go and you move those draft picks, you move in and it makes sense. It's just weird.
But when the salary cap goes up 30 million every year, I just can't believe any team can afford two primetime receivers and a

quarterback. The receivers thing.
Yeah. The Cowboys did that.
I can't believe that. They would be 90 million over the cap.
Like we just want to pay three guys and we can't do it.

Right. But maybe you can pay the three guys.
Maybe that's the lesson. You pay Parsons,

Lamb and Dak and everybody else could pay three guys. Why can't you pay three guys?

Yeah. Just draft Georgia offensive linemen and defensive tackles and in, three years, they'll all work out.
We'll be fine. They'll dominate.
What was your reaction to whatever was going on on the social media the last 24 hours with the guy claiming that Dak might get traded to the Cleveland Browns? I know you saw it. I ignored it.
Can't even figure out how that would work. Well, you know, it's like, you know, when we have friends telling us, you got to bet this, you got to bet this.
And depending on the friend, you're like, no, I'm going to stay away. That's kind of how I was with this rumor mill.
Like whoever was passing it along, I was like, oh, that guy has more credibility. This is dumb.
But yeah. So the thing would be, you would take Deshaun's contract and trade Dak and just get killed for a year, but you would then be able to reset your...
I don't even get... But now you wouldn't have a quarterback? They would have to lead Jerry off in handcuffs, a straightjack.
The guys at the White Coast would just have to take him away at that point. He's like, I've traded Dak Prescott for Deshaun and a future second round pick, and I'm going to become a professional actor.

Taylor Sheridan is building a new show around me as an aging NFL owner who's lost his mind.

Take three cheerleaders of your choice too.

I'm out of here.

Whatever you want.

Philadelphia, 14 and three last year.

Yikes.

That's not true, is it?

Yeah.

Playing the NFC North and the AFC West. That's pretty hard.
So your easiest games are Vegas and Chicago out of those eight. Not to mention first place schedule.
They're playing Thursday, the first game of the year. Not to mention no one ever wins this division two years in a row.
You're just not allowed. I, I, I really wanted to go 12 and a half and I couldn't do it.
And I'm an 11 and a half. That's where I'm.
It's gotta be 11 and a half and it's 11 and a half. This is even money both ways.
I can't, I swear I'm not cheating. Philly minus 165 to win the division, by the way.

Oh, just for the record, since we did the AFC wins,

Casey's minus 150, Texans plus 140, Baltimore minus 135,

and the Bills are minus 210.

Those are new too.

Those divisions weren't up till today either.

That's great.

Oh, really?

Yeah, that's great.

No, they just had, that's great.

No, they just had conference and Super Bowl.

Pats plus 650?

Bengals plus 190?

So it looks like the opportunity would be the AFC South if you can talk yourself into the Colts of plus 290,

and I'm not sure I want to talk myself into that.

Plus 290, I don't know.

What did you say Texans were? 160 or something? Minus Texans are plus 140. Jags are plus 250.
Plus 140 Texans. Yeah, I like the Texans.
We can't bet the Souths. Come on.
Let's not do it. And then Chargers plus 330 and Broncos plus 490.
Raiders 12 to 1 if you want to get excited about that. For your division, well,

let's do the overrunners first.

All right, coming

back. So we have Washington

12-5 last year.

I forgot they won that many games. I knew they were

a playoff team, but shit.

That's an unbelievable

record. The Pats got 12-5.

I'm going to lose my mind. Their overrunner was 6-1 they won 12 games oh yeah they almost doubled it second place schedule NFC North, AFC West I battled between 9 and a half and 10 and a half for this and I went 10 and a half alright I upped it from 9 and a half to 10 so I have 10.
You have 10.5. Motherfucker.
9.5. Really? Wow.
Wow. No trust.
Little action on the under, too. Minus 120 under.
Interesting. In a dumb way here? Like, you know, like, give Ertz and Debo.
Well, I don't. Is he going to make a difference? Laramie Tunsell.
I feel like

Houston gave him up too easily.

Maybe there's something there more than

Bobby Wagner. Some of these

signings. Kinlaw.
I don't know.

How is this

team three wins worse if Daniels

is healthy?

Let's say he plays the whole

year. How would they not be a 10-win

team? Oh, three worse because they won 12. Yeah, they won 12.
And they won in the playoffs. Now 9.5 is their over-under? That seems weird to me.
I think they're anticipating the schedule is going to be harder, but that's kind of nuts. I wonder if they look at point differential from last year.
Was that really a 12-win year or wasn't, you know.

Also,

really good coaching staff.

Nobody left.

They kept everybody.

That's a weird one.

I'm going to mark that one down.

So,

plus 100 over 9.5 wins for them right now.

The Cowboys.

Did you go 8-9

or 7-10 last year?

What did we decide?

You tried to give me an extra win. They were 7-10.
Disgusting. 7-10.
Playing the NFC North and the AFC West in Philly and Washington four times. And that was enough for me to go 7-1.
Oh. I bumped it to 8.
I figured this is a team that won 12 games three years in a row. They fell apart last year.
This is America's team. They can't give everyone free money.
I have eight. What is it? Seven and a half.
Here comes the comeback, baby. I'm back down to minus five.
Seven and a half and plus 100 on the over. I like the under.
That's so embarrassing, man. That is embarrassing.
Why are you guys going to be good?

What's the case?

Just Dak being healthy?

Because we were selectively aggressive

during the free agent period.

We extended Osa.

We got Fowler,

guy 10 and a half sacks last year.

What does selectively aggressive mean?

I've never heard that phrase in my life.

I'm telling you exactly what it is.

You sign Javante Williams and Miles Sanders.

You get your punt,

not only your punter, your punt returner and your long snapper tied up. You get that? We're good.
Seven and a half. Wow.
Might have to bring Babydoll back in to wish you a lot of luck. Wow.
This was a 12-year team two years ago. The 12-win team.
They're not going to win the Super Bowl in the 2020s, which will mean three straight Super Bowl-less decades for you. But at least you have Juan Soto.
How dare you? We have Juan Soto. I'm praising you.
We're in the Mets at opening day of the season today. Juan Soto is going to be the Cowboys quarterback in like three years.
You'll see. New York Giants, 3-14 last year.
Tough division. Plus NFC North, AFC West.
And they're paying Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston for some reason. Why not pick? Why not just pick one of those guys? Yeah.
They got to get hard knocks back in New York. I know Joe Shane's going to lock his doors.
I got to let anybody in, but they have that, that quarterback room with Jameis, Russ and Tommy DeVito. What laughs? And that's before they even throw any pick sixes.
What did they possibly see from Russell Wilson in the last six games of the season with the Steelers to think he's anything more than like a $5 million quarterback? I do not understand it. What is the, what's the game plan for that? And you have Jameis who's, I would probably rather have Jameis at gunpoint.
Wouldn't really want to eat in the room. Who would you rather have, Jameis or Russell Wilson? Coin flip.
No reason to pay $10 million. So you're paying one guy $4 million and the other guy like $20? Yeah.
I like it. This was my favorite Cowboy signing, the free agency, Russell Wilson to the Giants.
It was the best. I mean, honestly, like...
You were selectively aggressive and cheering for it. Well, we're not getting 2015 Russell Wilson.
He doesn't run. He's bad in the pocket.
If that offensive line was anything like it was with Daniel Jones, it's going to be a disaster for him, right? It went bad for him in Seattle near the end. He went to Denver.
It went so bad that they paid him to go away and then went to the Steelers who completely quit on everybody in the last four weeks of the season. And now you have Dayball and Shane basically trying to save their jobs, telling us we don't want to take a rookie quarterback three because we won't be here when he starts being good.
And now Wilson versus Russell is – Wilson versus Winston is nuts. But I'm the other way.
I'm like, why even keep Dayball around? Because you're not going to win with this team, and this is going to be his last year, right? This Russell Wilson thing. I mean, they're a mess.
They offer Darius Slate more money than they did Saquon. What was that? Yeah.
I picked a four and a half for this. I think this is going to be our first four or three.
I'm going to say five. I don't even know why, but.
Okay. Five and a half.
You win again. Is it really? Yeah.
Okay. I might want to book that five and a half from people.

Yeah, that's a disaster.

What's the division odds?

Division odds, Giants 20 to one.

Is that the biggest one we've had so far?

Cleveland's 23 to one.

Dallas 7 to one.

Washington plus 250.

Eagles minus 165

I like

don't mind that

Washington's a play

Washington's a play

I don't mind that one at all

okay

NFC North

so the NFC East

34 wins

AFC East 33

I don't know about that

I don't agree with that

Giants number at all

in fact I'm going to make

my first like

mark it down prediction

I think that's

four and a half

by the summer

right

I don't think that stays there

can I tell a quick story? Being in Vegas, I bet the Giants have the worst record in the league last year, and they were three and 14, but it tied with three other teams. It's a four-way split.
I go to cash this. I don't have to say what casino this is, but I go to cash it in.
So I should, you know, I was about to win $1,300. So if you split it four ways, I went 300 and change.
So I presented to the counter. It's a miracle.
I'm cashing a futures, a ticket from last year. And the guy's like, Nope, this is a loser.
I was like, well, how is this a loser? I pull up on my phone. There's four teams with three, with three wins.
Then he brings this guy over. He couldn't have been older than 19 years old.
He's got this thing that resembles a phone that he's looking into. The Giants lose on a tiebreaker to the Browns, and he lists six tiebreaking scenarios, and they lost on the six tie.
I was like, wait a minute. Isn't this dead heat rules? And I was like, no, we don't do dead heat, sir.
This is how we do it. And you lost on the six tiebreaker.
I'm like, all right. I don't even know what you're looking into, by the way.
You could be, you know, you could be, I'm not sure what you could be. But, and I hate when they're indignant about it.
Like, yeah, like TSA is like when you fly from, and they're like, you have to take your laptop out. Like, all right, well, I just flew in from Fort Worth and I didn't have to.
And they're like, they're so dickish about it.

But anyway, I lost because of the

sixth tiebreaker.

That feels like fraud.

I know.

It's like all this rooting I did for nothing.

Kind of wish you had named the casino,

but that's

unbelievable.

NFC North, Detroit,

15-2 last year. That's not happening again.
They do play the NFC East and the AFC North. So, Giants, that's an easy game.
Maybe your team's easy. Steelers.
Brown's easy. Maybe Steelers are easy if they don't get a quarterback.
A lot of trouble with this. I'm going to say 11 and a half.
That's what I have. 11 and a half.
Is it higher? It is 10 and a half. That's bad.
That's wrong. Well, I'll tell you this much.
There's action on the under of all things. Wow.
Minus 140, under 10.5. I'm sorry.
That's wrong. This team had the year from hell injury-wise.
You're not going to find a worse example of a team that was plagued with injuries, and they won 15 games, and now you're taking four and a half games off their total? They can get their whole defense back. I know the division is tough.
They lost both coordinators. Yeah.
That's not nothing. Right.
They had a horrible end to the season. Yep.
And it's the Detroit Lions. Four and a half win differential? They replaced them, though.

They replaced them with a cornerback everybody likes.

They did.

Yeah.

I don't know.

And we haven't seen the draft yet.

I like the over.

I'm saying I like the over.

Why is that four and a half different?

Like, Minnesota's not going to win 14 games.

So they'll, right?

I don't even know that the division's better.

So you would bet the Lions plus 120 at over 10 and a half right now. Yeah.
11 and six. I really like that one too.
I almost, that line's so suspicious. I almost feel like we don't know something.
Right. Like, what do they know that we don't know? Dan Campbell bit all the kneecaps off.
There's none left. Dan Campbell has been deranged all offseason.
Minnesota was 14-3 last year. This is so hard.
They changed their quarterback from the great Sam Darnold to J.J. McCarthy, who we have not seen play NFL yet.
Tough for schedule, second place. This is the biggest drop-off, 14 and 3 but I went 9 and a half for them I don't see how it can be in the 10s I went 8 and a half I think this is an impossible one to pick I think 9 and 8 would be good for them you motherfucker is it? 8 and a half yes Yes.
That is plus 115 right now.

You're really good at this.

Guessing the over-unders, your final destiny.

This is it.

You found the gimmick.

We've been podcasting since 07.

You figured it out.

Unbelievable.

I did it.

You're going to have to pull me into NBA.

I think you've clinched.

I think I'd have to get all the rest ones just to tie you. That's it.
What a beating this was. That is a full-fledged, we don't trust J.J.
McCarthy number. That's it.
That's the biggest drop-off? Five and a half from 14 and a half. Five and a half drop-off and J.J.
McCarthy might be good. Right.
Vikings, dare I say a little, nobody believes in us. There's still some Aaron Rodgers.
14-3 last year. A lot of the guys are still in this locker room.
They went 14-3. Yeah.
Green Bay, they went 11-6 last year. Third place schedule and I'll probably regret this, but I went 9-1.
I did think about the 10.5. It's got to be 9.5.
And it's 9.5 but plus 115 on the over. So they're minus 135 on the under.
I think that's just right for them. So division odds now Detroit plus 110 Green, Green Bay plus 250, Bears plus 450, and Minnesota with the worst odds of anyone at plus 550.

But I should have done that after we did the Bears.

Right.

Well, now you're going to, you can maybe lock in there.

Maybe I can cheat.

Well, I had eight and a half for them anyway. They're five and 12 last year.
NFC East, AFC North. They spent a lot of money in the lines.
They're going to have a high draft pick. And with the way the division's kind of falling back to them a little bit, it seems like an eight and a half.
What'd you have? I went nine only because it was nine last year, right? Like, wasn't that weird? Remember we were betting them not to make the playoff. Do we bet them under nine or do we bet them not to make the playoffs? I feel like they're in love with the Bears.
The fans are in love with the Bears. I know they fix that offensive line.
I have nine. It is eight and a half.
Okay. Plus 120 for the over on that one.
Hmm. Not touching that.
Not touching. Yeah, that is a stay away.
Okay. So 19 and 18.
So that's 37 wins. Is that the most? That's the most for any division.
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Terms and conditions apply. Two more, NFC South, Tampa Bay, 10 and 7.
Feel good story. Playing the NFC West and the AFC East.
So potentially, I don't really love anybody in the NFC West. And we might not love three of the four teams in the AFC East.
So this is a nice little scenario for To make it a break. Yeah.
For the South. And then, you know, they're bringing their receivers back, bringing the team back.
It felt like a nine and a half to me, so. Oh, really? Oh, I don't think you can make any of these teams over eight and a half.
Okay. That's what I did.
And you were correct. Eight and a half.
This is embarrassing for you.

I'm at the stage now

where I'm bringing in the shortstop

to pitch the ninth inning.

He's throwing his knuckleball.

I mean, this could be

just a giant Bill Simmons meme

for 90 minutes.

This is great.

I'm going to make the Walton Goggins

finding out that his friend

had sex with everyone's

Thailand face.

Minus 125 action for the Bucs, FYI.

Can't do it.

No South.

No South talk till week 12.

New Orleans.

Oh, no, not New Orleans.

Atlanta is next.

So they're playing a second place schedule, plus the NFC West, plus the AFC East.

And they went 8-9 last year.

Full year of pennics.

I put 8.5 for these guys.

A little whiz of weird offseason already.

I just went 8.

Okay.

I don't know why you keep doing the round numbers, but I'm not going to question your process

since you're beating me by six teams.

7.5 is our answer. Wow, you won that one too.
So that one. Motherfucker.
I mean, that's just so much is up in the air with his cousins and they lose their center. I was feeling so good after my 27 and five, but now I'm in shambles.
No, you're good. It's such a good year last year.
Then I lose the Super Bowl. I get killed in KC.
And now my whole thing's falling apart. Maybe the under should be

me. I think I've dropped by five wins.

This doesn't matter. You pick

the winners 27 times.

I'm just picking the number. I don't know what the hell

to do. I don't know what to do with the number.

I care about dumb shit like this, so it matters.

New Orleans.

God, are they going to be terrible.

5-12, NFC West,

AFC East, and the third

place schedule.

They're in cap hell. They brought back

Thank you. God, are they going to be terrible? 5-12, NFC West, AFC East, and the third place schedule.
And they're in cap hell. They brought back Carr with this weird, well, we're screwed anyway.
How about we'll guarantee your money? They have the ninth pick in the draft. Yeah.
Brandon Cooks, Jawan Johnson, same old names. Yeah.
New coach, but they had like the last pick of the coaches.

It was like they went to go get a dog from the kennel and every other choice was gone.

And they're like, we have this one left.

Any interest?

I went five and a half and it might be a win too high.

I went round number because I couldn't think about it too much.

Six for me.

Well, you hit it again. Really? You doing this round number thing is bullshit.
There's been no round numbers the whole time. Vandal has round numbers.
I'm just trying to do this correctly. I can't believe you.
You should try harder. This is like the most you've ever cheated.
There are round numbers. Pick five and a half.
So I was like, I'll just take six. It's like price is right.
You're just gaming the system. I sent you all the numbers from last year.
You could have noticed that there weren't halves on several of them. Well, it's six and a half this time.
We haven't had a round number yet. Wait, is it six and a half or six? Yeah, it's six and a half.
You won because you picked six because you cheated. Oh, okay.
Oh, I see. And then last one is Carolina.
Five and 12 last year somehow. I still can't believe I didn't win my, when I was in Boston that time, and I bet the adjusted under four and a half wins for them, and somehow Bryce Young came in and just smoked it.
They ended up with five wins. I lost.
I still other one was the adjusted under on the pats. Three and a half.
And Joe Milton came in at the end. Joe Milton? Yeah.
He's going to be a cowboy. Joe Milton, the next to the worst quarterback? Anyway, he came in.
By the way, that was nuts. We don't think about that enough, that Andy Dalton was totally content to bring them to another 3-14 year.
Then at the car accident. You should see if you're covered.
Your auto insurance covers that bet. Do you have to pay the deductible? I won't try to find out at the casino you went to.
Yeah. I went 5.5 for the Panthers.
I did too. Okay.
The answer is six and a half. Jesus.
No. What the hell? What are we doing? Come on.
I don't agree with that at all. Why are they better than five ones last year? Holy moly.
Where do they pick up this extra two games? Divisions. Tampa plus 135.
Atlanta plus 230. New Orleans plus 480.
And Carolina, action started out in the fourth slot, but now they're plus 410. People are banging the Panthers.
What am I missing? We may have to do that. But no South talk.
Hey, what was your bet last year for the South? They'd have fewer than how many wins? One of our locks that we hit was that they would have less than 30 wins, which they did. And then we had an NFC East first South bet.
I think just the top two teams in the NFC East almost beat the entire NFC South. So it's 29 this year if you add the 7.5, 8.5, 6.5, 6.5.
It's 13 and 16.

29.

I got to be honest.

We've done 28 teams.

I think my single favorite is New Orleans under 6.5 so far.

Why are they going to be good?

What is good about them?

What's the case?

No.

They're old.

They're messy.

They came out of a great start last year. They were 2-0, scored like 100 points, and then they were the Saints.
Like, if we were to say who's going to have the worst record in the league next year, they would at least be one of the teams we batted around. Yeah, I think that's smart.
NFC West. They're playing the NFC South and the AFC South, which I thought the NFC West...
Yeah, that's the best draw. I thought the NFC West was probably going to suck this year, but that made me rethink it.
The Rams are in the one spot with the schedule. They were 10-7 last year and first place schedule on the one hand but then playing the South kind of messed with my head a little bit.
I went 10.5 for them. Oh, wow.
I went nine.

So let's see.

I know you don't like the round numbers.

Nine and a half.

That's me.

Minus 145.

Listen,

I think this is going to be ultimately good for me because I think my instincts

will be the correct instincts.

You don't like them this year?

I do. I like them because of their schedule and because I don't think their division is going to be good.
Do you like Arizona, San Francisco or Seattle this year? No. After the Super Bowl I picked my way too early team odds wise, value wise.
The Rams were 20 to 1. I was like wow that's pretty good.
They were a couple plays away from beating the champion Eagles. And then they did a smart thing, signed Stafford.
Awesome. I think Devontae Adams has juice left.
Flip cup and Adams. Yeah, it's good.
They're in good shape, I think. Nine and a half is a nice number, too.
Yeah, I mean, one of the great things about this process is especially after the draft and when we get to the summer, I'm sure we'll

flip-flop on a bunch of these instincts.

But

I just think the Rams,

best coach, they've had success.

Stafford's kind of near the

end. This seems like a pretty good division

bet type of thing for me.

Seattle,

they were 10-7 last

year. Same South versus South, second place schedule, and I went 8.5 for them I said 7.5 I hit this one 8.5 really? really you won one? I did really I won one I'm remembering all of this for Guess the Lions this year I don't like like these moves.
These could go very badly with Sam Darnold and Cooper Cupp. I don't know.
I didn't like the Cooper Cupp signing at all. There were so many bad stats about him getting open over the last five years.
In 2020, he was open 90% of the time, and it was down like 14. The thing with Darnold, though, he was 14-3 last year.
I know. So now he's an 8-win quarterback.
That's the only thing that makes me nervous. But I want to see if they fix their offensive line completely through the draft.
We'll see. Arizona is 8-9.
No Gene on O'Meccafe. Arizona was 8-9 last year.
And if Seattle's 8-1-1-1 with this South-South thing, I think Arizona has to be eight and a half. So that's what I picked.
Maybe you'll beat me here. I said seven.
Seven? Round number bullshit. It's higher.
Eight and a half plus 105. Well, at least I'm ending in a way my fans can have some hope.
Yeah, I'm going to let you win these last couple.

You took out your starters.

Yeah.

You're like Buffalo in week 17 and Joe Milton let you up.

Plus 105.

And then last but not least, San Francisco, who lost so many people.

It's like a whole paragraph of all the people they lost.

This is so tough.

And yet they were 6-11 last year.

That was the rebuilding year.

But now they're in a rebuilding year. And they're going to have to pay Purdy, but they are playing the South and the South.
I said 6.5 would you have? Oh, wow. I had 8.5.
Okay. Wow, this is the biggest disparity we've had.
It's got to be my way, right? How is this rate? 10 and a half. That's too high.
That's way, way high. What in the hell? What am I missing? You know, you read enough about them.
It's like, yeah, these were good moves. These were good cuts.
Deebo Samuel, all these cuts, everything they did, Greenlaw. I don't know.
I don't... I thought this was like a blow it up or building year for them.
Wait, so they're favored to win the division? Not the Rams? I'm going to tell you right now. I'm stunned by that.
Yeah. San Francisco plus 155.
Rams plus 180. Seahawks plus 490.
Cardinals plus 500. Wow.
So I have to bet this now. If I was four wins off, even though we don't know what's happening in the draft, that has to be an automatic bet for me.
Yeah, that's atrocious. That's not good.
I'm stunned. That's not good.
We got to go under there. Also, how do we know McCaffrey's even going to be remotely where he was? Exactly.
That's the way to go. Yeah, I don't know why.

Well, that was really fun.

That was a good time.

And they have Mac Jones, though.

Did you mention that?

They did sign him for two years.

I forgot to mention Mac Jones.

The MVP is Lamar, plus 450.

Allen, plus 550.

Burrow, plus 600.

So the Niners are probably like seven.

Seventh best to win the Super Bowl?

I hope that's not true. For the conference, they have the third best odds, 9-1.
What am I missing? What's happening? I think it's way more likely they have a year from hell again and Shanahan is out of there. I missed the whole offseason.
I really did. I was there for the whole offseason.
I didn't see anything that made me think that they were going to be awesome. I thought they lost a shitload of people.
I mean, do we feel like they hit their drafts the last couple years? Like, you know, they're trying to trade IUC as we speak, and I don't even think they can do that. Nobody wants to play there.
Plus he's coming off an ACL. Yeah, they were riding high off the Purdy, not having to pay him.
Now it's – I got to look into that. We're missing something.
Let's do a quick parent corner before we go. All right.
My son Archie's home on spring break. They do quarters.
So he gets home and I say, how are your grades? And he kind of like half-asses a response and everything and immediately shifts gears and tells me he's on season four of The Sopranos. And I was like, oh, that's great.

That's better.

You could have told me you're mafia cum laude right now.

I mean, that's all I care about.

That's what college should be all about, right?

Spend tens of thousands of dollars a semester to catch up on classic TV shows in your dorm.

That's like reading a great novel.

Yeah, it really is.

So I was like, oh, sorry. So you're in season four.
You got like a season and a half. I was like, I want to watch the finale with you.
And he's like, oh, I don't know. Once I get going, I really, I don't know.
Am I really going to be able to stop short and not watch the finale for like a month? I'm like, no, I want to watch with you. And it's like, he's like, all right, I'll try.
But it made me think, like, if you had to watch a finale with your kids who are viewing for the first time, which ones would you put up there? Sopranos. Only Sopranos.
Anything else? Breaking Bad or not as much? No. Only Sopranos.
Just for the reaction. Right.
There was this clip going around of people watching Tommy get shot in Goodfellas. Did you see different reactions.
Right. Yeah.
Yeah. And I would think that would be the TV version of, of that watching people react to like, wait, what did, wait, what, you hated that.
That was the maddest I've ever seen. Non-sports related.
I'm still mad that you're not mad about it. I really do.
Yeah. Now I think it's great, but I know it's going to happen.
I know it's happening now. You liked it right away.
You did. No, I did not like it right away.
It's nonsensical. I guess no one hated it as much as I did.
But I had a terrible reaction to it. I didn't want to be friends with anyone who liked it.
I like that. It's such a cheap way to go out.
But the answer is he left it open-ended because he's a movie maker. He wanted to maybe make a movie.
What? That's the only answer. So he didn't die.
This is dumb. He set it up that this is what death is like.
You don't know when it's coming and everything goes black. Bullshit.
So my son, like five days ago

for spring break,

went to Portugal and Spain

because he's in this, he plays

the upright bass and he's in this

jazz band. So a bunch of the jazz

people went to play in all these places.

So

they, my wife

drives him like in the middle of the night to the airport

because they have like a six o'clock flight. And then he's flying for two days straight.
I wanted to redo all of our interactions with him since he's been gone. He's been gone since Friday night and WhatsApp because they don't have messages, anything.
First of all, she only hears from him once on WhatsApp, then puts me on a text with them. Miss you guys too.
That was, that was one. We are in Rondo and are about to perform in four minutes.
Second form of communication with him. Sent us one, two pictures of, you can see of a tree and a mountain.

Nice.

My wife asked, how is the performance?

No answer.

Sends a picture of the dog.

Misses you nothing.

Performances have been great.

It's super nice out here.

That was the third communication.

Miss home though.

T-H-O.

Great.

Picture. Need a photo of your face, my wife says.
Nothing. Then silence again.
Hey guys, super long day. We left at nine and just got back.
My wife responds, that's your report? Anything else happening? Is it any fun? Sends us back this picture.

What is it?

I couldn't say.

It's just a picture of him and his friend

with the mouth behind them.

And he says,

it is fun.

It's just a lot.

Yeah.

And that's it.

Those have been all of our interactions with him.

Has he tried to call us once?

Only one picture of his face? And I have no idea if he's even alive in Spain right now. I was trying to, my wife and I were talking about, I was trying to remember, was I this much of a dick when I was 17? And I think the answer is probably yes, right? We didn't want to deal with our parents in any way, shape or form when we were 17.
Right. We didn't have WhatsApp and anything else like that too.
So it wasn't as easy. So maybe that's a little, yeah, but maybe we spot it hard to believe there wasn't one moment where he's like, you know what? I'm going to send my parents an update, just a long paragraph.
Here's the best thing I ate. Just check in and say hi to grandma for me, whatever.
Nope, nothing. I think the big news is who the hell knew that Ben Simmons played the upright base after all these years on an international level? I was an international base player.
Yeah. How about that he went to Portugal and Spain, two countries I haven't been to yet? I don't know.
Who can figure that? I bet on soccer. I have a bunch of Portuguese.
I didn't mean to mention Portugal and Spain in a non-soccer context. You just reminded me.
Yeah. There you go.
Anyway, that's Parent Corner. The other thing is, we're doing this live rewatchables tonight in Boston.
And my daughter goes to college here, so I left her a ticket. I'm like, are you going to come tomorrow night? She's like, I don't know.
It's a big night. Meaning it's a big night where they go out.
So she's 50-50. I might need to have more kids.
That's where I probably ended. You know with those older guys when they just all of a sudden have the second family, you're like, huh, that's weird.
Maybe I just need to start again. Yeah.
Nah, dude. Nah, they'll come around.
I think you need to hold the rewatchables at the place where she's going out. That's what you have to figure out.
Right. Maybe go to the bar.
She shows up by accident. Yeah.
50-50. Might go, might not.
Depends on what's going on tonight. You son of a bitch.
You guys are doing Goodfellas tonight? No, we're doing Goodwill Hunting tonight. Oh, Good Will Hunting.
Good Fallas is playing at the

Coolidge Corner Film Festival. Oh, man, that's going to be so

much fun. So much fun.
All right, Sal, congrats

on absolutely kicking my ass. Thank you.

If that was a baseball game, that would have been

17-3. What's your favorite MLB future?

Mercy rule.

I went Soto over

33.5 home runs.

And what was

my other one I had? I have Texas Rangers to make the playoffs. And, uh, what was, what was my other one? I had, I have,

uh,

Texas Rangers to make,

to make the playoffs.

Oh,

I like it.

Yeah.

I think I'm good.

And I had mad dog Russo on cousin Sal's winning weekend.

You can see it Friday.

Uh,

on sandal TV.

And by the way,

he,

uh,

I,

I went through,

I'll send you the clip.

I was like,

you know,

we Simmons and I do this podcast for the last 15 years.

We've closed it with good job by you.

We stole it from you.

I said,

can you give me a good,

Thank you. We stole it from you.
I said, can you give me a good, a good job by you? And he's like, well, first of all, you tell Bill, I watched three episodes of the Celtics documentary and it is dynamite. I mean, you got him and his father and they're talking and Koozie and Russell.
And then he went through all that. I'm like, all right, I'll tell him.
And then he gave me a good job by you. I thought he was going into convulsions.
It was great. I'll send it to him.
Oh, that sounds amazing. All right, check that out.
That's on Against All Odds, right? Against All Odds. Yeah, yeah.
But you're also on the Rear Gambling shit too. That's right.
Yeah. All right, so there you go.
How are you doing to March Madness, by the way? Are you winning? I'm doing all right. I mean, you can't, it's hard to lose when there's all chalk.
I mean, it's a, I know you hate it. I mean, three favorite parlays.
I get irrationally angry at how much you, your irrational. I've been following.
I'm just doing a bit. I like that.
I know you are. I know.
I was on the thread we have with JJ and Raheem in house. Just, oh, my bracket.
Oh, my God. It's busted.
It's dumb, but it's still guys coming to Vegas. By the way, it's not like 20 years ago.
They charged like 500 bucks to get into Caesars. Anyway, you want to see it anywhere.
It's 400. Like, ask Kyle.
It's 400 or more. Oh, my God.
But anyway, we did all right, it's a lot of fun. Good job.
You great to see you.

Thanks to Kyle and Cerruti and Gahau.

As always,

don't forget,

you can watch this on the ringer movies,

YouTube channel, or as a video podcast on Spotify.

So good job.

Good job.

Bye.

Bye. I'm a bruised side.
I don't have a feeling.

I'm a bruised side.

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