Best of The Program | Guests: Sohrab Ahmari & David Steinberg | 10/15/20

Attention, all small biz owners.

At the UPS store, you can count on us to handle your packages with care.

With our certified packing experts, your packages are properly packed and protected.

And with our pack and ship guarantee, when we pack it and ship it, we guarantee it because your items arrive safe or you'll be reimbursed.

Visit the ups store.com/slash guarantee for full details.

Most locations are independently owned.

Product services, pricing, and hours of operation may vary.

See Center for Details.

The UPS store.

Be unstoppable.

Come into your local store today.

All right, we've got some great stuff on today's podcast.

Breaking news on Elon Omar and the scandal that apparently no one wants to pay attention to.

We have it now on tape.

It's taken us months to get it translated.

We have the author of the story.

It's an exclusive story only on theblaze.com.

It is about vote buying in Minnesota in the Somali community.

It's dead to rights.

We have have that story for you.

Also, we have the op-ed editor of the New York Post talking about not only the story of Hunter Biden and now all of the documents that have come out and look like it proves everything we said in our specials on Hydra to be true.

We have that story for you, but also we have the story of the

pushback from Twitter and Facebook, and

we have the poll numbers.

And

Stu and Steve Dace kind of go at it head-to-head.

And you also probably want to stick around and don't want to miss Glenn's story about, and if you're an NFL fan, you'll know this name, Patrick Mahoney, the quarterback of the Kansas City Chiefs.

You'll really appreciate it.

I thought that was his name.

I don't know who he was.

It was an embarrassing moment.

You're not going to want to miss that one.

All on today's podcast.

Don't forget, by the way, to go to Blazetv.com/slash Glenn.

You can get the code Save Our Election.

Save Our Election.

We'll save you 20 bucks.

You can get the Glenn special yesterday on hijacking the election, also Studios America, lots of other great stuff.

No baloney, but some Mahoney.

Some Mahoney.

Patrick Mahoney,

Blazetv.com slash Glenn.

Save Our Election.

This is a honest effort.

It really was on my part.

Save 20 bucks.

Here's the podcast.

You're listening to the best of the blend back program.

We have David Steinberg on with us.

He's the investigative reporter who has dedicated the last few years of his life to Elon Omar and the now story that has just been posted

at theblaze.com

about the Minnesota

Democratic candidate that is alleging outright vote buying by Minnesota Democrats.

And she says it's worse than Somalia.

And she is from Somalia.

Welcome to the program, David.

How are you?

Good.

Thanks for having me on.

You bet.

Thank you for your hard work and your great story on the Blaze.

David,

tell me the story again in a nutshell.

I just went over it, but tell me your version of the story here on what happened.

Well, the big thing going on here is that this isn't an edited, this isn't a sting operation.

This woman is a Democrat.

She was running for city council in Minnesota, Minneapolis.

And again, this is the city council which recently voted to defund the police.

She is a defund the police supporter.

So this is a very progressive left-wing Democrat.

She's running for that seat.

On July 6th, she gets onto Facebook Live.

She speaks only in Somali.

She's very upset.

She talks for 15 minutes.

She says, I'm announcing that I am no longer going to go door-to-door campaigning because she's so upset that everybody she meets says, my vote is 200 bucks.

And apparently, they're saying this because they were promised this by somebody else.

So in this video, she says, you know what?

If someone promised you 200 bucks, don't vote for me.

Just go get your 200 bucks and vote for them.

I don't want any any part of this.

And then she describes two very specific

incidents she witnessed while she was out campaigning.

She says she met these eight women and they wanted to vote for her.

And her campaign had sent a van to drive them to the poll.

And this is perfectly legal, helping get people to the polls.

She said they were eight mostly elderly women.

They all get there and they're all waiting around for the driver and they start to tell him, sort us out, sort us out.

The driver says, I don't know what this means.

So the driver calls her up.

He asks her what it means.

She says, I don't know what it means.

Apparently, they were all promised $200 by somebody else, and they were expecting the $200.

And so she tells the driver, take them back home.

I don't want any part of this.

She describes another situation.

where she met an older woman.

She asked if the woman had voted, and she said, oh, yeah, sure, I voted already.

She said, who'd you vote to her?

I don't know.

And apparently, after a few more questions, the woman revealed that a Somali man came around, knocked on her door, and took her ballot.

Now, this is apparently such a widespread situation that, as she says in this video,

the elder Somalis in the community, a lot of them simply do not understand that buying votes is illegal in the United States.

She says

these are older refugees.

Most of them have not been able to learn English.

They came from a very poor background.

They escaped a war.

And since they've gotten to America, they have been exploited like this.

They simply don't know.

They think it's just how it's done.

And so this woman, who I'm describing her as a patriot in the article, look, she wants to defund police.

She's very radical left.

I don't agree with her.

But what she says in this article is, this is a country of laws.

This is going to destroy our community.

It has to stop now.

You all know about it.

We all know each other here.

And you all know sooner or later this is going to come down on us.

And this, she's very upset that this is bringing a terror light on the Somali American community there.

And to be honest, she's right.

You know, Trump has been very hard on the community.

And he is, in every rally, he discusses Omar.

He discusses what's going on with Minnesota in the refugee community.

And that reputation, there are a tremendous number of people in this community.

They're all my sources.

And they've had enough.

They are intimidated.

They want to join America.

They don't want to live like this.

And they feel like they have to keep their mouth shuts.

This woman had enough.

She just got on Facebook Live, talked for 15 minutes in Somali.

She said her name.

She says, I know people are going to say I'm crazy.

I'm a snitch.

But she said, you know what?

People know.

They already know, and you're all going to get caught.

And she's not a nobody.

I mean, she is the former head of the fundraising for the Democratic Party in Minnesota.

Is she not?

Yeah, the DFL is the name of the Democratic Party in Minneapolis.

She was the head of fundraising for the DFL office in Minneapolis.

She has been selected for several state boards and commissions by the governor of Minnesota.

This is not a newcomer who just decided to run and had no votes.

This woman's been around.

She's,

it seems like at least 15 years of volunteering and campaigning and activism in the local Democratic Party.

She knows everybody, and she just had enough.

She was tired of people asking her for money.

And she was tired of seeing the seniors get exploited.

And she just posted this very upset video.

I didn't edit it.

You posted the whole video on the site.

We posted the entire translation.

We got two Somali translators, one person to translate, one person to check it over.

And everything you see there is exactly what she said.

And as of this moment, the video is still live.

She posted this on July 6th.

That won't be up there for very much longer.

We do have all of this burned to disk, do we not?

I'm sorry?

We do have all this on the hard drive, don't we?

Yes, yes.

What you have posted right now is stored on the Blaze.

We did download it.

We have archived everything, and it's not going anywhere.

We did reach out to her for comments.

It's been two days, and we have not heard back from her.

But again, if we do hear from her, the first message is, of course,

this is incredibly brave.

We think she's a patriot.

We're glad she did this.

And she wouldn't be necessarily a friend of the Blaze.

She probably, I mean, she is a progressive Democrat.

Absolutely.

Again, if you look at her campaign page, she was certainly on board with defunding the police.

She said, Disfund, dismantle, rebuild, what was her motto on that.

Absolutely, I don't expect she would be a fan of anything we post.

But again,

my point of view on this, again, all I mean, who do you think my sources have been for two years?

Somali refugees, Muslim refugees in the community, which is about 80%

Democrat to begin with, but they're scared.

They're intimidated.

They've had enough.

They want to be...

So how do you mean?

David, how do you mean they've been intimidated?

Who's intimidating them?

Oh, the elder voters.

People come around collecting ballots, and they simply think they have to give them the ballot

because this is how it went in Somalia, as she describes it.

She says, you know, we have all these other problems in our community, and now you can add corruption of seniors to that list.

Everything that you have put in this article has been verified and re-verified.

And you can see it with your own eyes.

You can read the text.

Again,

somebody translated, then we went back and we had somebody else independently

translate to make sure that it was all exactly what we say it is and get her words exactly right.

And so all of this is all buttoned up.

There is another part of this story that

may or may not be true that we will only know if a subpoena, but

it goes to Keith Ellison.

And I don't know if you want to or care to share that, but

it would explain why nothing is being done by the Attorney General.

Do you want to share that?

I'm happy to share that.

Look, the election is coming in two weeks, and if we have several thousand votes purchased in a swing state,

look, Minneapolis could be decided by a couple thousand votes and Minnesota, the state, the presidential election might be decided by Minnesota.

So somebody's got to look into this now.

So what I've heard

is is that Ms.

Saido Shai is her name, after she posted this video on July 6th, she received a text from Keith Ellison with two words, shut up.

Now, apparently, people were trying to get her, after she explained this to people, they were trying to get her to

show the phone.

and to just see the evidence of what happened.

And

she walked away and left.

She was not willing to share that.

But yes,

that is the story circulating: is that after she posted this, she gets a text from Keith Ellison, shut up.

David, you told me a few months ago that you had confidence because you knew the FBI, DOJ, was looking into this,

and not this particular thing, but Elon Omar and all of the corruption that was happening there with Keith Ellison, et cetera, et cetera.

Now we have this.

Why hasn't anything been done?

Is it just deep state, all part of it?

All I can say is that

it's been almost a year.

I'd say, I think 11 months since there was initially a meeting set up with the Minnesota DOJ

and the FBI.

to receive

to speak with some witnesses and to receive information.

Some of it has been published, some of it not.

And I do know that the FBI then brought on

an agent from ICE

and also an agent from the Department of Education, Inspector General's Office, because Ilhan Omar's marriage fraud is

it absolutely appears to be

partly, part of it was immigration fraud, part of it was student loan fraud.

After she got married, both she and her brother husband attended North Dakota State University for two years.

The marriage essentially started two months before school, and they separated two months after she gets her degree.

And they certainly would have received, being married, they would have received a much better student loan deal.

So it was also sent to the Department of Education.

David, I want to

just consider something I just remembered in talking to you.

I remember back in the day, this is probably 2010, of hearing how out of control the State Department was in settling all of these Somali refugees in one place, that it was unusual and that they had just set up a whole Somali community.

And they picked

Minnesota, and the people involved at the time said, I don't know why this is happening, why it's in Minnesota.

And they just picked it and picked this whole community up and planted it in Somalia.

Now, with everything we know about the State Department, I would wonder if there's any

if

they knew exactly what they were building there.

Well, look, if you head back to,

I believe the Bush administration was when this first began,

they started to do DNA testing on the scene in West Africa among the applicants, and they completely shut off the Somali refugee program when up to, I believe the number was 83%

of tests proved that families were not actually related to each other.

Now, again,

I'm not here to criticize people fleeing the world.

Yeah,

I'm not here to criticize.

I'm saying what they did was they brought people to this country

who could never assimilate because they came here under illegal circumstances.

So what you have in Minneapolis, you have a community that was destined to fail, destined to be run by strong arm, you know, people like Ilhan Omar's campaign because it's lawless.

Nobody wants to snitch.

Everybody has a secret.

And that's what happened.

And this woman is just tired of it she you know it's she says it's worse than somalia it's lawless we have certainly heard of people afraid to speak not because

of of the bad actors in the somali community but because

everybody has relatives back home in somalia and they know uh they know who has power back there for example ilhan omar's family is the most powerful family in in Putland, which is the northern republic.

Somalia is essentially split into three loosely combined nations at the moment, unstable.

The north part, Putland, Garo, I believe, is the capital.

She has the most powerful family in the city over there.

David,

thank you so much for this.

Please keep us up to speed on it.

There is an exclusive article now on theblaze.com front page.

Read it, share it with as many people as you can while you can.

If you are ready for some really great news, keep listening.

Built Bar is back and it is unbelievable.

If you've been listening to my show this year, I love Built Bars.

It's an all-American story.

This is a client I asked to be on the show because I didn't listen to my wife again, and she'd been telling me about it, but it has protein bar on it, and those always taste like a doormat.

This is unbelievable.

The mint brownie flavor?

Oh, yes, baby.

It is life-changing.

The new bars taste better than ever.

In addition to the 12 original flavors, Built Bar just added cookies and cream, carrot cake, caramel brownie, lemon, almond cheesecake, apple, almond crisp.

I mean, it's just, it's great.

Built Bar, delicious, nutritious, high-protein, low-calorie, high-fiber, low carbs, 100% real chocolate, and 100% really good.

Plus, they've reset the code for this new launch.

Right now, go to builtbar.com, use the promo code Beck, get $10 off your first order.

Promo code Beck, BuiltBar.com.

This is the best of the Glenn Beck program.

Let me go to Sir Rob Amari.

He is the op-ed editor for the New York Post, author of The Unbroken Thread.

And he has been witnessing in a part of this

in real time on what is going on.

So Rob, welcome.

Gwen, thanks for having me.

So tell me, first of all, quickly, and we'll get back to it maybe later, quickly tell me the Joe Biden story that was posted yesterday.

So

this was a, well, really, a Hunter and Joe Biden story.

You'll remember that

Joe Biden has repeatedly and emphatically denied that there was nothing untoward going on between his family, his dynasty, and Ukraine while

Mr.

Biden was vice president and the second most powerful man on earth, playing an outsized role in the destiny of that embattled Eastern European nation.

He's denied it.

But

the New York Post, my colleagues, I'm not the reporter on this.

I can't take any of the credit for it.

I'm just our opinion or op-ed editor.

But our reporters got hold of the contents of a hard drive that appeared to belong to Hunter Biden, and they include emails showing

that the

firm called Barisma, it's a shady Ukrainian energy firm that had

Hunter on its board of directors paying him at least $50,000 a month, nice work if you can get it,

that they had

asked him to arrange a meeting

with

his father.

And so it becomes clear why our illustrious vice presidential son, who

otherwise has no special expertise in Eastern European energy markets and oil and gas matters, was being paid $50,000 a month.

I mean it was obvious all along, right?

Why would ERISMA pay Hunter Biden $50,000 a month?

But now we,

you know, we get it.

It's influence peddling.

And so in addition to other things that just corroborate that,

you know,

this is the real material.

We need also that among the cache of materials are all sorts of personal photos, including photos of Hunter with like a crack pipe in his mouth, smoking, you know, and sort of debauched stuff.

But the important thing is that we were very clear from the beginning about how we got hold of this material.

It was reported deeply, fairly, meticulously, and

it was based on much more solid sourcing than mountains of stories published in center-left outlets over the past four years that collapsed and were based on

unnamed sources telling unnamed sources telling the reporter.

And none of those got censored by the major social media platforms the way this story is.

And this story, in this story, I mean, it's either a very good fraud

or it is the truth.

And the reason why I say a very good fraud is

it confirms all of these threads that most people aren't even covering.

It covers all of the threads and all of the players that if you've really been doing your homework, if you really know the story of Burisma, et cetera, et cetera, it all fits.

It all fits.

Yeah, I mean, Blen, there is something very

delicious about this because we've, you know, has spent the past four years talking about collusion, collusion, collusion that never,

never materialized.

The special counsel, again, in his report, Robert Mueller definitively ruled out there having been any collusion between Teen Trump and the Kremlin or any Russian assets or elements.

Definitively ruled out.

Then at the end of this tail end of this four years, it's almost like some sort of Greek tragedy or comedy.

You know, you find

a cache of material that confirms that there was influence peddling, certainly with foreign entities when Joe Biden was vice president with his Klan.

So

yesterday they came out and said, Joe Biden, because in this information, it shows that Hunter Biden asked for a meeting with the Burisma officials and Joe Biden in Washington.

And Joe Biden said, well, there's nothing on the official schedule.

However, there's a hole in his schedule, exactly where that meeting was supposed to take place.

And also the July or the January 5th meeting that we know now, because of handwritten notes, he was a part of with President Obama that

went against what the FBI was saying.

We know that happened, and that's not on his schedule.

So what does it not on my schedule even mean?

So go ahead, if I may, I just want to rehearse the denial that the Trump, that the Biden camp put forward yesterday.

Okay.

And go through its, it has three elements, and it's very amusing if you think about it.

So the first element says a bipartisan committee found that Joe Biden had done nothing wrong in Ukraine.

It's included that.

That's a non-sequitur.

We have new evidence.

So

whatever the various congressional bodies found, fine.

That's very nice.

But we have new evidence.

We have the smoking gun or the smoking crackpipe, if you will.

So that

rule that.

The second one was the Post did not tell us that Rudy Giuliani was involved in obtaining this underlying material.

Okay, but plenty of newspapers don't go around saying who their sources are.

So that, again, is a non-sequitur.

And then the third thing they said was that the meeting, and this is, you know, as you know, if you know lawyers, if you know PR people, they choose words very, very carefully.

They said the meeting did not take place as alleged by the New York Post.

As alleged by the New York Post.

So, okay, so then in a political story, they said they couldn't rule out the possibility that an informal get-together took place.

So this is a story where we're being banned.

We're not being,

Facebook.

has reduced distribution.

They said they had, and you can't post it on Twitter.

This is a story where the complainant has not disputed really any of the facts in the story, right?

The person who's being accused.

Hunter does not say that I didn't write those emails or anything like that.

So

Twitter and Facebook are acting on a case where even the person who's being accused in the story isn't really denying the core facts.

So now, here is what happened yesterday.

We know that Twitter and Facebook throttled you back.

Twitter actually,

I think, banned your post, did it not?

Correct.

So it began with a Facebook official, actually, named Andy Stone.

Andy Stone tweeted, although he's a Facebook official, but he used Twitter to say that, you know, I'm paraphrasing, but I won't link to that awful New York Post story, but it certainly deserves fact-checking.

In the meanwhile, we have taken steps to reduce its distribution on our social media platform.

Now, the thing to know about Andy Stone before we get into the actual substance of that stuff is Andy Stone in his bio says before he joined Facebook, he worked

as a staffer for Senator Barbara Boxer, Democrat of California, and for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the DCCC.

That's weird.

So you have essentially a Democratic operative who's at the levers of control for

where free speech really happens.

We have theoretically, we have a First Amendment Amendment where I can go in a, in a, I live in Manhattan, I can go on a street corner and sort of bang drums and be like, Hunter was corrupt, but that's not where speech really happens in our day and age.

Where it really matters is on these privately owned platforms.

That's where free speech either lives or dies.

And the person who controls the levers is an openly democratic operative, proudly says he works for Center Boxer and works for, or used to work for, the DCCC, and is reducing distribution.

And then a couple of hours later, I think I tried to post a story and I noticed I got an error message from Twitter saying, you know, we've we've determined that this story is harmful alongside our partners, and so we're not going to let you post it.

So here's what you get today.

Today, when you get the post of, hey, make sure you read our follow-up, you're not going to get it because they're not circulating it.

But I tried to click through on the story and it says, warning, this link may may be unsafe.

The link you're trying to access has been identified by Twitter or our partners as being potentially spammy or unsafe in accordance with Twitter's URL policy.

This link could fall into any of the below categories.

Malicious links that could steal personal identification or harm electronic devices.

Spammy links that mislead people or disrupt their experience.

Violent or misleading content that could lead to real-world harm, or certain categories of content that if posted directly on Twitter are a violation of the Twitter rules.

Back to the previous page or ignore this warning and continue.

That is so damaging to not only your traffic but also your reputation that I think there's a lawsuit to be had in that.

Well, I will leave that to our legal team, but what I will say is that we are talking about America's oldest continuously published newspaper that was founded by one of our founding fathers, Alexander Hamilton.

And I get goosebumps when I say that about the Post.

And so, you know, this is not some sketchy website where they can do this to you without consequence.

This is

an old newspaper, a beloved newspaper in New York City, a paper that's a local paper, but also has a national and global voice and imprint.

And,

you know, the closest thing to an argument I saw from a Twitter safety thread they had put up, they said, this includes

information that was unauthorized for release.

Well, my Twitter friend, let me tell you about the Pentagon papers.

Let me tell you about the Trump tax story.

All of journalism is practically built on disclosing things that people don't want disclosed.

That's the line of work that you and I are in, Glenn.

So

what does that mean?

So,

what is the solution to this?

Where do you see this going?

So, Rob?

We're conservative and we're used to, I mean, I am,

we're used to talking about

everything being a

market-based solution to everything.

But I think

there are situations where market actors can become monopolistic, and we have a tradition, you know, a great Republican trust-busting tradition.

You know, the way that these operators can

silence dissident voices, essentially.

I mean, I described it in a column in today's paper.

I said this is a kind of neo-totalitarianism, and it's not the kind of totalitarianism where

you have this hardened man in a darkened cell driving a screw under someone's nails and so forth.

It's just this kind of, you know, a kind of Silicon Valley type who's very righteous and certain that he's educated and he knows better than the American people.

And they shouldn't be able to decide for themselves what information they read and what conclusions they draw.

It's better if someone enlightened like himself or herself decides for them.

I'm in engineering.

I went to engineering school.

I know tech, so I know better than you.

And that's profoundly un-American, but they have the power because that's where that, as I said, this is where speech really happens.

If we have free free speech it it lives or dies on these platforms not not just on a street corner and so I believe there has to be reform of you know the law governing

a lot of these platforms it's called section 230

and it is it it's all very complex but the bottom line is look if we at the New York Post publish libelous material against someone, we can be held liable in court

for publishing libel.

If you broadcast libel, you can be.

But this law in the 90s created a kind of carve-out that said, you know, platforms that are these neutral platforms can

avoid liability.

They're like bulletin boards.

So the stuff that you various people come and post on there, even if it's libelist,

they're not treated as publishers the way

your program is or the the way

our newspaper is treated under the law.

And they're specifically allowed to censor prurient content.

But the whole philosophy behind Section 230 was that they would act like neutral arbiters other than these kind of specific categories of pornography and so forth.

But now they're not.

They're really acting like publishers.

Twitter has a kind of worldview of its own.

Like right now, if you go on Twitter, there's a kind of the first page that opens up says discover or search, I can't remember.

And it kind of presents what Twitter's own editors think are interesting stories.

And today's is, guess what?

The Washington Post confirmed that Joe Biden did not push that troublesome prosecutor to be fired.

Literally says that.

There is video of Joe Biden saying, sorry, I get angry about this stuff because it's such gaslighting.

There is video of Joe Biden saying,

I pushed that guy out.

I threatened the Ukrainian saying if if he's not fired by the time I'm gone,

this is the best of the Glenn Beck program.

So,

I just want to get both of you on to see what you agree on and what you disagree on, and where the differences are.

Because I get a happy vibe from Steve.

I get a very sad vibe from Stu.

And

I just want some hope in my life.

So, if you both agree with what Stu says in the end, please spin it in such a way, you know, I'm not buying the stool.

I already have the rope.

Okay.

Donald Trump is going to win by 45 points.

That's my thing.

I'm good.

And we keep the Senate?

Oh, gosh.

They're going to have all the senators, even the ones not even running.

They're going to resign and get appointed to be Republican.

Wow, that's great.

Okay.

So, Steve,

let's start with a happy talk and the good news.

Tell me why we shouldn't believe the polls and which polls are accurate.

You know,

it just goes to show you how weird this year is that I am now where America goes for optimism.

I don't even know what to do with that.

I know, I know.

I know the feeling.

They came to me.

They came to me for common sense.

You just recently like, well, we want him to explain it.

What?

That's how screwed up you are?

This is usually the stage of the election when y'all put me in a closet so I don't ruin this thing down the stretch.

But the reality is that the methodologies are just deeply flawed.

And I think we can have two separate debates, who's going to win the election and are the polls correct.

And I just look at, just this morning, three of the last four polls that were included in the RCP average, Real Clear Politics Polling Average,

are putting Donald Trump in the danger zone of breaking Herbert Hoover's record for the worst popular vote finish in the two-party era when it was just a two-man race of an incumbent president.

He got 39.7%.

You look at the base energy Donald Trump has, you look at the energy of the crowds that he can draw, you look at where the unemployment numbers are.

I think we're going to get a massive economic growth report here at the end of this month.

There's just no way possible Donald Trump is going to hover anywhere near on a level, and then how polarized the country is, how radicalized the opposition is.

There's no way he's getting a Herbert Hoover-like popular vote percentage.

And I just go back to 2008.

I mean,

guys, tell me right now, right now, which campaign do you think, if you didn't look at a poll, if you looked at every other metric, which campaign do you think was in better shape at this stage without John McCain 2008 or Trump 2020?

Which one?

Which, wait, wait, wait, which one?

Trump 2020

or McCain 2008.

Oh, my gosh.

Yeah, absolutely Trump 2020.

Well, the good news for you is the real clear politics polling average at this point had John McCain about three and a half points better than it has Donald Trump.

So

in that election, Barack Obama got the biggest Democratic presidential election victory since LBJ's historic romp in 1964.

So then to me, we're starting from a baseline, Glenn, that the polls are at least wrong, that Donald Trump is at least in as good a shape as John McCain was in 2008.

And then we can debate how much better shape from there.

I will tell you that I think it is possible to see,

now not with the historic reasons of Obama, but I think there is in the GOP the kind of momentum that

Barack Obama had in the Democratic Party.

Not the crossover independents, I'm not talking about that, but the people who are in the party,

I think there is the kind of he's got to win kind of attitude

that Obama had in the, this is going to be great, historic, you've got to vote for him because what it says about you and history.

I think that's the same kind of momentum.

I agree.

No, I think the momentum is there on the opposite of that as well.

He's got to lose or America is over.

And I think both of those dynamics are at play.

You look at the voter registration energy on the Republican side all over the country.

Republicans are actually winning early voting right now.

Never happened, as far as I can, that I can ever remember.

But you look at the amount of money Democrat candidates are raising all over the country.

It's insane amounts of money.

I think that just further proves this isn't going to be some historic 12-point popular vote margin loss.

It's not even going to be some historic...

I mean, Barack Obama, I just said, had the biggest win since 1964.

He won the popular vote by seven points.

Joe Biden's going to do better than that and against a sitting president.

with this kind of loyalty amongst his own base.

There's no way that's going to happen.

So I'm not arguing that Trump is going to win.

I can't bet political futures in Iowa.

If I could and you gave me plus 160 or plus 200, I'd absolutely put 100 or something on Trump.

Would I do it straight up?

No.

Okay.

But if you were going to give me value odds, yeah, you bet I would bet him.

But that's a different question to are the polls right?

Okay.

Those methodologies are flawed, clearly.

All right, before we get into the methodologies,

Stu,

comment on what he just said because those are good points.

Yeah, and I don't think there's much there that I disagree with.

I don't believe it's going to wind up a 12-point election.

I mean, there are polls out there that are showing that, but

I don't think that's going to be the reality.

You know, the average poll right now is around what's the RCP at right now?

Seven or eight.

It's increased a little bit since that debate, but it's been bouncing around in the high single digits, basically.

I do think we'll see some narrowing before Election Day.

I'd be surprised if if Donald Trump loses by more than John McCain.

I think Steve's right on that.

Like, I mean, my impression, not looking at a poll, would be that they're in better shape.

But again,

this has bounced perfectly for Joe Biden.

You know, I mean, what is Donald Trump's best strength as a campaigner?

Large in-person rallies.

He's tried to do that, but for most of the year, they've basically been illegal, right?

He's in the middle of the, you know, the pandemic and all of the things that that bring along, but it doesn't only bring along negative things like you know economic despair and all that with with Trump it also brings out incredibly positive things for Joe Biden in that you can hide him I mean they've been able to literally hide this guy I don't know if you've seen a single crowd of Joe Bidens they just they they they show them at an in an airport hangar and they never show the crowd because there's nobody there yeah And, you know, I think Trump entered the first debate with an opportunity to change the narrative and take him from a place where he was, I think, throughout the summer, which was behind, but, you know, within striking distance with a couple of big, good, positive events.

And he had three of these debates to go.

The first one,

we all covered it together.

We all thought it was a terrible debate.

And it seems to have affected the polls in a negative way for Trump.

Debate number two gets canceled because Trump's got the coronavirus.

And debate three three is, I mean, it's supposed to happen next week, but is it?

I mean, who even knows?

We're now seeing that Kamala Harris has people who are traveling with her that have tested positive for coronavirus.

So would you be shocked in the least if Joe Biden, again, this is one of the reasons I don't understand what Trump is doing tonight.

You have an opportunity.

Joe Biden is going on television for a length, a period of time and actually going to talk in front of the camera.

The last thing in the world I want people to do is to not see that.

And now Donald Trump is on another network who's going with Savannah Guthrie.

Savannah Guthrie.

Who hates him?

Who hates his guts.

Like, if I was Donald Trump, I would walk out on stage with a television with ABC's broadcast of Joe Biden and just hold it up to the camera and hope people watched that.

Because honestly, like, people know who Donald Trump is.

They need the problem, I think, that Trump has here is that people, unlike 2016, where they hated Hillary Clinton, they don't have that visceral hatred for Joe Biden.

And he's just a non-factor.

So they're looking at Trump and trying to guard it.

And so I would agree with Steve that there have been some outlier polls.

I think the ones in double digits, I just don't believe.

I think I'm with Steve.

I just inherently don't believe them.

All right.

So I want to get to methodology because that's where Stu always you live there, and so does Steve.

Oh, yeah.

Steve was

a campaign guy who used to, you know, commission polls, and he reads them.

You know, he used to for a living.

He knows what they mean.

And Stu has done the same over the 20 years that I've been with him.

And I want to see where you agree and disagree on the polls and their methodology.

Tell me about the methodology and where you think these polls are falling apart.

And if there are any polls that you trust.

Well,

I trust methodologies, not brands.

I need to know, it's similar to when I looked at COVID models earlier this year.

I didn't say I'm an epidemiologist.

I just said these models are bad.

Those are two different questions.

Okay.

Same thing here.

When you have a model, and that's what a poll is, it's a model.

A poll's assumptions and premise and logic have to add up to the conclusion.

And then you've got to be able to reverse engineer it, meaning that when I see your conclusion and then I go backwards and look at how you arrived at that conclusion, it makes sense to me.

So let me give you two polls and brands that a lot of conservative audiences trust.

In 2016, Rasmussen was the most accurate national poll.

Last week, it put out a poll that had Trump down by 12 points, and it had him

only only getting 76% of Republican voters.

Despite the fact he's averaged an 87% approval rating throughout his presidency with Republicans, despite the fact that four years ago, Glennie faced guys like you, me, and not the fake conservatives, but real ones like you, me, Ben Shapiro, that didn't want to vote for him four years ago, that he doesn't face this time.

And they said he's going to get one out of, basically one out of every four Republicans.

That would be the worst by a Republican president since George H.W.

Bush in 1992, who had Ross Perot.

That's clearly not going to happen.

And that 12-point decline of Republican voters from 2016 was their entire top-line result of Biden plus 12.

And then look at the most recent Fox poll.

So Fox has a poll, and here's their dual headline from Fox News.

Biden widens lead,

but Trump widens the gap of people who think he's going to win.

If I was doing a poll, and I asked people, hey, who do you think is going to win?

And it was like 30-point swing difference or 25-point swing difference from what I was going to weight my top line results.

I fire myself for that.

Okay.

I mean, I cannot believe Fox News published that garbage.

One of those things has

both those things, Glenn, can be false.

One of them can be true and the other false.

They cannot both simultaneously, though, be true.

Yeah, I mean, there's been some polls I've seen where he's outperforming every Republican among Hispanic and black voters over the past past several decades, and he's down by eight and 10 and 12 points.

I think, though, like

when you look at this as a whole, right?

Like, because I think I see these same results, I think, as Steve is seeing, and we're maybe looking at slightly different things.

He may be very right.

I believe the final vote will not be 10 or 12 points.

However, there's a lot of room between

there's a polling error and Donald Trump winning this election.

There's a significant room.

There are significant issues, but here's why I'm focusing.

I don't disagree with any of your analysis.

I mean, I could, Stu, I could come back with a counter-pro-Trump analysis, but it would be really splitting hairs.

This is why I'm zeroing on these methodologies, because I think these methodologies are the same thing as the bad, corrupt COVID models we got earlier this year.

It's a psyop.

It is trying to convince you.

Don't believe what your eyes see.

Yes, Trump pulled in 25,000 people down the street from me last night, and 30% of them were registered Democrats.

Don't believe any of that.

Don't believe any of that.

Here's Here's our poll the next morning.

He's going to lose by 12 points.

Just like throw out the laws of immunology, virology, and biology.

Antibodies doesn't mean you're immune anymore.

There's no T-cell immunity.

What is it?

We don't know.

Never heard of it.

It's the same thing.

That's why I'm zeroed in on the models, because I think what it is, is a PSYOP operation, just like the COVID doomsday IHME models

and Imperial College models were the same.

It's a model with the intent of generating a policy result.

That's what we saw with COVID.

And this is a model with an intent of generating an outcome electoral result.

That's what I think you're seeing right now.

All right, so then let's go here.

What do you think is going to happen?

What does your gut tell you is going to happen?

If I worked on the Trump campaign, this would be my brutally honest analysis.

Mr.

President, I really believe whatever items are trending on social media the day before the election will determine whose narrative is driving out turnout.

I think it's a very volatile election.

I think it's all driven by negatives and no aspirational or no inspirational aspects at all.

And therefore, I think on a given day, my prediction of who would win this election would be determined by what stories are trending, what narratives are trending.

Whoever's dumbest last loses.

I really believe that.

And I think that could be a four or five point swing right there within 24 hours.

And I think, you know, one of the, because you mentioned the impact on the way these polls are going for a lot of people.

And And I think that's true.

A lot of people are looking at this.

Oh, maybe it's hopeless and maybe I won't go.

I do see the opposite too on conservative media.

And this is not what Steve's doing here at all.

He's doing obviously a much more detailed analysis.

But there's a lot of social media people on the conservative side who are kind of giving this idea that, look, in 2016, everybody said the polls are wrong.

And that, you know, look, they were wrong last time and they're going to be wrong again this time.

And this idea that like the Democrats are going to be sobbing into their arms, and they're going to be, all their tears are going to be piling up in the streets, and we're all going to laugh at them.

And I don't think that a lot of people, at least, you know, real hardcore Trump supporters who are on a lot of social media, have the idea that this is where this is.

Like, there is a point here that Donald Trump needs to do what Steve's talking about, right?

He needs to be on the right side of these late-breaking issues.

It's not a thing where Trump is killing, is crushing this and winning by a ton, as it's presented by so many on the right.

And I feel like the opposite psychological thing might happen where conservatives are like, wow, they all said it was wrong last time.

What do I need to do?

I don't need to go out and knock on that last door.

I don't need to make those extra phone calls.

I haven't met a conservative yet that feels that way.

That's all over social media for sure.

Well, that's unfortunate.

I have met people who think he's going to win, but they always go, he's going to win, right?

You know what I mean?

And that's different than, ah, he's going to win.

No, no, no, no.

Your sausage McMuffin with egg didn't change.

Your receipt did.

The sausage McMuffin with egg extra value meal includes a hash brown and a small coffee for just $5.

Only at McDonald's for a limited time.

Prices and participation may vary.