Best of The Program | Guest: Stephen Moore | 4/1/20

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Welcome to the podcast.

Don't forget, tonight at nine o'clock Eastern is Glenn's big show.

It's a special on coronavirus and the media, the way they're handling it.

Are they helping things?

You might know the answer to that, but it's important to get all the details.

They are amazing.

That's at 9 p.m.

on Blaze TV.

You can go to Blazetv.com.

Use the promo code Glenn.

We'll save you 30 bucks if you sign up now.

It's the biggest discount they've ever done.

So go do that as well.

And immediately preceding Glenn's show is Stew Does America.

As well, we'll be talking about

all sorts of craziness that's going on with our spending around the coronavirus.

That's tonight at 8 p.m.

Eastern.

On the podcast today, we have Pat Gray, who is on, talking about

where this goes.

What are the numbers that are actually important to focus on with coronavirus?

Which ones are the ones to ignore?

We will get into that today.

Glenn is on the Tiger King kick.

If you are watching that,

like pretty much apparently apparently everybody in the world is right now.

We actually get someone who works at the tiger,

I don't know, Tiger Factory, whatever they call it,

who actually works there, calls in in defense of

the woman on the show.

We'll get into that a little bit.

And Stephen Moore, who if you may know, he was going to be one of the Fed's

Fed chief under Trump.

You know, media basically

threw him out of that role.

But he is on giving his expert opinion on what's coming up with the economy.

We have two big

unemployment reports coming out this week.

So he gets into that.

That's all on today's podcast.

You're listening to the best of the Blandbeck program.

Hello, America.

Welcome to the program.

Today, our coronavirus update, I'm going to try to keep it a short, as my Uncle Leo used to say, keep it a short.

We'll do that here in just a second.

And Stephen Moore is going to join us because

I'm really concerned about what does this mean in the future for the economy and how do we get out of the now and become futurists and start looking at new possibilities and new ways to capture the spirit of America as we go through this coronavirus update and so much more in one minute.

This is the Glenbeck program.

So yesterday we had the founder and owner of My Pillow on the news and or on the show, and he's been in the news for

going up in the Rose Garden.

And while he was being thanked by the president

for making 50,000 surgical masks a day, they've totally repackaged My Pillow.

And they've taken and stopped making pillows and everything else for a while.

And they're just retooling one of their big factories just to make surgical masks, 50,000 every day now.

And he did it because he wanted to help out.

And the media just bashed him because he dared to mention God and that we should use this time to go back to God and study our scriptures, et cetera, et cetera.

He's a real American hero,

and he makes great products when he isn't trying to save the country.

I think he is extraordinarily brave.

I don't know what happened to his business or what's going to happen to his business as he's just retooled all of this.

And when half the country is told to hate him, he's got a different life in front of him.

If you need a pillow, if you need new sheets, would you do me a favor?

Would you go to mypillow.com right now and support him and his mission?

He's going to be on my podcast this Saturday.

I spent about an hour and a half with him, and he's got a real mission that he's doing, and it's way beyond My Pillow.

My Pillow, he felt back in the day that he was given this design, if you will, of a pillow

because he was going to have to use that money to do good things.

And wait until you hear his plans.

He's a remarkable man.

That's on my special podcast this Saturday.

If you're a subscriber to the Blaze, you'll get it tomorrow.

Anyway, go to mypillow.com, click on the new radio listener specials, buy one pair of Giza Dream sheets.

They're tremendous.

I have them on the bed.

I've given up all other sheets.

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And the more you use sleep on them, the more you wash them, the softer they get.

It's the promo code Beck.

can be used and you'll get two for one buy one get another pair for free it's 800-966-3117 get the great radio specials now using the promo code beck at mypillow.com

All right, I want to give you a quick update here as we get ready for Stephen Moore joining us.

The daily stats: total confirmed deaths now worldwide, 43,271.

That's up from 38,000 yesterday.

What's amazing is we're now talking about in America alone, a death count over 100,000, between 100 and 200,000 just in America.

Total confirmed cases now we approach 1,872,000 up from 799.

So almost about 80,000 new cases yesterday.

We now have 188,000 confirmed cases and 4,000 deaths.

That's up 20,000 in

the case count

and up almost 1,000 in deaths just in the last 24 hours.

We now lead the world in total confirmed cases with 78,000.

That's more cases than Italy, although Italy leads the world in deaths with 12,428.

11% of the U.S.

confirmed cases are requiring hospitalization, roughly on par with Italy.

We may have a lot of cases, but not per capita.

We are 24th in total confirmed cases per 1 million people, with 507 cases per 1 million.

Spain has 2,185 cases, more than four times the amount per million.

We are 28th in total confirmed dead per 1 million, with 12 dead per 1 million citizens.

Italy has 206 dead per 1 million.

Now, here's the thing that we want to transition into with Stephen Moore.

The U.S.

energy industry is on the verge of a massive collapse.

For the first time in my lifetime, it could be said three weeks ago that the United States was free from all foreign energy.

We were energy independent.

For the first time in my lifetime, we have been trying to get that monkey off of our back forever.

Well, under Trump, we finally accomplished it.

Now, the U.S.

energy market is on the verge of massive collapse.

Here's why.

Russia and the Saudis have just been pumping oil like there is no tomorrow.

They've been trying to collapse the United States energy independence.

They need us to be hooked on their energy.

Well, they did that as soon as the airlines started to collapse all around the world.

Transportation is down 45%.

So that's why you're seeing gas prices going so low.

In fact, they're going so low.

There is so much oil now.

We are literally swimming in oil, the world is, that they're thinking now that the price could even go into the negative range for a price of a barrel of oil.

So they'd pay you five bucks to take the oil because there's no place to store all of the oil.

Rick Perry has recommended that U.S.

refineries be restricted now from importing and refining any foreign petroleum products for at least 60 days as a means to help domestic energy producers in Texas, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, and Colorado.

I think this is something that, as an emergency step, the president should do.

If independent energy producers go out of business, we are handing the market back to Russia and Saudi Arabia.

Rick Perry says, it's 1974 all over again.

In our bailout nation, now the car industry needs a bailout.

Year over year, automobile sales in the U.S.

are off as much as 90%.

Analysts say April is going to be worse.

Dan Ferguson said everything you need to know.

He's the manager of a Ford dealership in Arizona.

He said he may have to lay off his entire staff of 48 employees.

He said, We hear there are supposed to be government loan programs for small businesses, but that money may be weeks away.

I can't make payroll today.

One other.

It looks like in

New York, 40%

of renters are not going to be able to make rent this month, and it's expected to be worse next month.

The problem with that is stick it to the landlord, right?

Except the landlord's not getting any relief.

How is the landlord, if he's not getting rent, going to be able to pay for all the water, garbage,

electricity?

everything that it takes to run one of these apartment buildings.

There is a meltdown coming.

Stephen Moore is joining us now.

Hello, Stephen.

How are you?

Well, hi, Glenn.

I just listened to what you were saying, and

it is just so catastrophic.

I mean, it makes my heart drop to hear these stories about business after business going bankrupt.

And,

you know, it's just, it's heartbreaking.

And, you know, I can't tell you how many businessmen and women have called me in the last few days and said the same thing.

I can't meet payroll, you know, revenues and customers out of the oxygen supply of business.

And,

you know, I'm sorry.

I think this, I haven't talked to you about it recently, Glenn, but I just don't think that this lockdown of our economy is the right thing to do.

I think that the suffering, the human suffering, the trillions of dollars of losses, the millions of people who've spent the heroes of our economy, the people who've built up businesses from ground floor to put their whole life into it to see it ruined in a matter of weeks.

It's unspeakable.

It's horrible.

We've got to get our economy reopened.

So, Stephen, I agree with you.

I just don't see a way of doing that safely.

And the problem is,

you know, there might be 200,000 dead, but if we destroy the engine of the world,

if we destroy this and we can't get back online and start really jumping back in, how many millions will die because America

is in wreckage?

Well, that's the question we should be asking.

And these are tough questions.

I apologize for being a little late for your show today.

I was on the phone with some of the folks at the White House talking about this.

And I said, you know, the president's got some really tough decisions to make.

And this is his Trichillian moment.

He has to guide us through this.

I think the idea, you know, I live in Virginia.

Our governor insanely has said that he wants to keep the economy locked down until the middle of June.

That to me is not

going to be an economy.

It's crazy.

It's lunatic.

I mean, you do that, there's not going to be an economy left to rebuild

in June when the things are reopened.

So, you know, it's interesting.

I'm going to give you some rays of sunlight here.

I had a long conversation, Glenn, with one of my heroes, Fred Smith, the CEO of FedEx, one of America's great, great companies, one of our largest companies and biggest employers.

And we spoke for about an hour, and

he's up and running.

And they're up and running not just in the United States, but throughout the world, as you know.

They have 350,000 employees in the United States.

350,000.

That's a lot.

That's like a pretty medium-sized city.

And I said, how many of those people, because they've been working for the last six, eight weeks.

I said, how many have come out down sick?

He said, less than 400.

So that's one in a thousand.

That's one in a thousand.

And what he's saying is they're using all the best practices, the medical practices.

They're doing sterilizations and disinfectants, and they're wearing masks, and they're they're wearing gloves and they're doing social distancing in the workplace.

And I'm here to tell you, Glenn, I think we can do this in a smart way that reduces the risks of death.

We may have to tolerate some additional deaths, and that's the kind of decision we make every day and every policy decision we make.

But, you know, there's a rule of thumb.

Every 10,000, every one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate, and this is your rule of thumb, but it's fairly

accurate historically.

Every one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate is associated with 10,000 additional deaths in the United States.

Some economists are saying we're going to see a 25% unemployment rate in this country, and that's very conceivable if we continue to lock down our economy.

So there, we've just caused 200,000 more deaths just from raising the unemployment rate.

So we have to be very smart about this and calibrated in our decisions.

And I just don't think that this idea of there's this trade-off between our economy and our health is being discussed in a responsible manner.

So, Stephen,

the Fed came out with their prediction of 32.5%

unemployment by June 1st.

That is,

I mean, the height of the Depression was, I think, 25%.

We've never seen anything like that.

What should Americans

expect or prepare for?

Well, God, let's pray that that doesn't happen because, you know, then you're talking, you go back to my rule of thumb, the news, about 300,000 additional jobs just from the rise in the unemployment rate.

And that also is revolution.

That's revolution territory.

Yeah.

Yeah, see, this is what worries me, is I think you're going to get social chaos in that situation when you have that many people unemployed.

It does, look, Glenn, let me start from the beginning here because none of the penis in Washington understand this.

They keep thinking, oh, we're just going to keep having one bailout bill after another, one stimulus bill after another, $2 trillion, $3 trillion, $4 trillion, $5 trillion.

And then the Fed says, we're just going to keep printing money.

And I'm here to tell you, Glenn, it doesn't matter how much money the Fed prints, it doesn't matter how many of these rescue plans, how many trillions of dollars they put into helicopters and dump over cities.

If the American economy isn't producing, it collapses.

It doesn't matter how much money they're,

I mean, they're actively.

We only need

more.

This is the crazy thing, Stephen.

I don't understand why they just didn't say moratorium on rent and mortgages and everything else for two months or whatever it is.

Because what people need to know right now is I can pay my, I can pay my basic bills.

I can pay for

the rent and my company doesn't have to worry about their mortgage on their building and those big items.

I don't know why we're not covering that because we're not going out and spending.

We're not doing it and so

all we need right now is just to not lose our place

that's what we need just don't lose our place don't look don't let me lose my restaurant that i've worked my whole life to build because i can't afford the rent

and that's happening as we speak and it's it's heartbreaking it's happening in neighborhoods everywhere around the country and uh towns and

uh you know i is there any talk in washington about doing anything for that?

Well, we just sent out $1,200 per adult and $500 per child.

And we've got

the unemployment insurance that is paying people 100% of what their paychecks are.

So we're providing a lot of aid.

But the problem isn't the aid.

We need our businesses to be functioning.

Open.

I mean,

they need to be functioning.

They need to be open.

You mentioned that story about,

I was listening to you saying before I came to the people not paying their rent.

I just got off the phone with a woman who owns apartment buildings throughout the country.

She is not rich, by any means.

This is how she makes money.

And she says, basically, starting two weeks ago, zero.

Everybody stopped paying their rent because the government's saying, hey, you cannot pay your rent and you won't be evicted.

And people are making the decision, well, I'm just not going to pay.

Well, think about that.

That means now she doesn't have any income, right?

Because nobody's paying her rent.

So she can't pay her bills.

So she has to foreclose on the you know, on the bank, the loan she has from the bank.

The bank now doesn't have any money.

I mean, I worry this cascades in a really ugly way if we don't

get up and running again.

It reorders everything, and

the only ones that might win are at the very, very top or

at the government level.

Nobody wins in this one.

Nobody wins in this one.

All right, Stephen, hang on just a second.

Yeah.

Hang on just a second.

We'll be back in just a second.

This is the best of the Glenn Beck program, and we really want to thank you for listening.

Welcome to the program.

We have Stephen Moore with us.

He was just on the phone with White House

Economic Advisors

trying to work his way through all of this.

Stephen,

what are we expecting for the unemployment numbers tomorrow?

Gosh,

you know, they're going to be high.

They're going to be rotten.

You know, it's amazing because I think Friday we come out with

the new unemployment rate numbers.

I think

Thursday we get the new unemployment insurance claims.

They're going to be rotten.

Terrible.

We're going to see

5 million more people signing up for unemployment insurance.

I mean, this is just a natural so you don't think it will be bigger than the, you don't think it will be bigger than last week?

Yeah, I do think it will.

I think we'll go from

3 million something last week, and I think we could be 5 million this week.

Hard to tell, I mean, how fast people sign up for these benefits.

But,

you know, I mean, look, it's very simple, folks.

Without businesses, you don't have jobs.

I don't know why AOC and Minnesota

and so forth don't understand that, but they keep demonizing businesses in that aid pack.

Oh, we can't help businesses.

I mean, I'm the biggest, I hate corporate welfare and I hate business handouts, but you got to give some loans to these businesses so they don't go bankrupt, so they can be up and running when we get through this.

So

when you look at

the unemployment new claims at 5 million, maybe, what kind of number is that?

We went from the lowest unemployment in 50 years, 3.5 or 6.

What are we looking at when that new number comes out this Friday?

You know, I almost feel like

this is some bad nightmare that I'm going to wake up from because it was just a month ago, it seems like 10 years ago, that we had the best jobs report, you know, ever.

We had 350,000 jobs in February with counting the revisions from the previous months.

We had the lowest unemployment rate in 50 years.

We had rising wages.

We had the Federal Reserve Bank, we were saying we were going to 3% to 4%.

Now we're just booming, and now we hit this wall.

And it just depresses me.

I'm sorry, I'm so depressed this morning, but I just feel so horrible for our country in terms of the

misery that this is going to cause people.

And I just want to get it over with.

I want to get us up and running again because

it's horrible.

I know you run a business.

I'm on the board of a business.

We had about 30 employees, and we had to lay them all off this week, Glenn.

And that's just a heartbreaking thing to have to do.

But we don't have any money.

How can we pay people if we don't have any revenue?

So, Stephen,

is there a point to where

if we could print enough masks, you know, make enough masks, get everybody, you know, to wear them, wear gloves, you know, practice safely, is there a chance in the next four weeks that we could go back to work and we would see the engine just flame up?

Because I think there'd be a lot of people that would would be, you know, there's a lot of pent-up spending and creativity and everything else.

When does that flame kind of, do you worry, go out

and we're at a point of no return?

Yeah.

That is my worry where you get this cascading effect where, you know, once a business goes bankrupt and has to sell their assets, but a good business doesn't exist anymore.

It can't, it can't resurrect itself.

And so, you know, and that's happening.

So that's why I keep telling the White House every week that

you keep the economy shut down, this is not like a fine-tuned engine where you can just click the ignition, it starts up again.

So it's a hard

question to answer.

Look, I have nothing but respect for the resilience of the American people, the American workers, and especially our great entrepreneurs.

We are going to get out of this.

And hopefully,

six months from now, when you and I are talking, we're only talking about coronavirus.

But these are tough times.

And all I'm saying is every day that goes by with this shutdown, it gets harder to start it up again.

So, Stephen,

the frightening thing for me is: you know, FedEx is going to be fine.

Amazon is doing great.

All of these big, huge businesses are doing fine.

But anyone with brick and mortar, anyone who is on a small level,

are they going to, is there anything that is,

you know, coming for real

significant relief for like that?

Even that woman who owns those apartment buildings, she's not rich, but I can guarantee you she's not going to be eligible for the $1,200 check.

And who's helping her?

Who's helping the people who are trying to make the

basic payment on their building, on their equipment,

and just can't do it until the engine's turned on again, because they didn't turn it off.

The United States government told them to turn it off.

Nobody, nobody's helping those people right now.

And they're facing real

hardship.

And

this woman I talked to said, well, she thinks she can get through the next few months.

But what if people don't start paying their rent?

It's one thing for if they don't pay their March

rent, maybe not their April

rent, and maybe even not their May rent.

But then you go past that, there's no revenues.

Again, this is the oxygen supply of any business.

So,

you know, I do think we can get this thing going again.

And we've got a great leader of Trump on the economy.

I'll give you one example.

One of the things I'm in favor of.

I mentioned the payroll tax suspension for the rest of the year.

How about this?

Why don't we put a suspension, a blanket immunity from lawsuits for every business in America for the next year so that when they put people back to work?

Because I've thought the employees are saying, I'm afraid to bring our, well, I'll bring my employees back to work, but I'm afraid of lawsuits if they get sick.

So why don't we have a blanket immunity so that, you know, let's say you employ me, Gladon, and I sign the document that says, I'm willing to go back, and you say I'm willing to hire you, but there's no lawsuits

in case I do get sick.

And that way you'll encourage, we want to get, look, the American people want to get back to work.

We're all going straight crazy.

Right.

Right.

The $2 trillion in infrastructure bill, phase four

of this, Donald Trump is saying,

He's saying, you know, the interest rates are at zero, so now is the time to borrow.

And so

we're going to borrow $2 trillion.

I think that number is going to go up, but that's a stunning, stunning number to come out with to start the negotiations with Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer.

Is that because the president is seeing the future

and knows that he needs to get ahead of this because the news is going to be shocking?

I don't know his motivation.

I worked for Trump during the campaign.

I've worked with him as an informal advisor, and

I find when it comes to the economy, he not always, but most of the time, makes very wise decisions.

You know, look, the problem with this infrastructure thing, and there's something to what Trump is saying, is if the people are going to lend us money for free, now's not a bad time for the government government to be borrowing, although we've been doing a hell of a lot of it already.

But, you know, the problem with this issue of infrastructure is when you and I say infrastructure and the left says infrastructure, we're talking completely past each other.

So what I want to see in this country, yeah, we should fix the roads.

We should fix our highways.

We should modernize our airports and our ports.

And we need pipelines in this country so we can get all the oil and gas to the markets that we need to, so we could be exporting this stuff at a faster pace.

That's not what the left is talking about.

They want

energy subsidies.

They want public transit projects.

They want

things of that nature that don't really add much.

And of course, the union wages for all of these

jobs that require 30, 40% higher costs to the projects.

So

I worry that this becomes

pardon the pun, but a runway train of spending that doesn't really accomplish much.

Stephen,

are you in Texas?

Are you in Texas?

I am in Texas.

So I'll give you an example.

So in Texas,

your cost of building a mile of road is about one-half the cost of what it is in California, New York.

Think about that.

Right.

You know why?

Because you're efficient.

You don't have all these crazy

union work rules and regulations and so on.

So if we're going to build the infrastructure, let's do it the way Texas does it, not the way New York does it.

Correct.

Correct.

Let me ask you while we're on Texas, the oil situation.

Is it possible for the president to tell refineries no more foreign oil for the next 60 days just to keep our energy independence?

Is there thought about that?

I'm afraid these oil companies and the shale and everything else, they're just, they're not coming back.

We're going to set ourselves back 50 years.

Gosh, this is the toughest question you could ask me.

This is keeping me up at nights, too, about what do we do.

And some of my best friends in the world, my friend Harold Ham in

Oklahoma City, who really was the kind of inventor of the whole fracking process and the horizontal drilling and

the Bach and Shale there that became one of the biggest oil fields in the world.

And they're just shutting east side of it, we're shutting just about everything down.

And you're there in Texas, you're seeing it, and

the price is as low as it's been in 40 years.

And we may see a oil price go below $15 a barrel, which would be,

then you're talking about every

virtually every well in America closing down.

First of all, if we're going to do something like that to keep out the foreign oil, then what we ought to do is not just basically have a $25 a barrel import fee, right?

And then we could use that money to pay for the infrastructure.

So

if the Saudis and the Russians want to keep cutting the price to

cut off the needs of our producers, let's slap them with a huge import fee, and why not use that money to help people here?

And by the way, that would be suffice for our domestic producers.

Right.

I would just hate to see us lose our energy independence.

That, to me, that was a huge accomplishment and

not even foreseeable when we were talking

under Barack Obama.

They had done everything they could to destroy it.

And I'd like to see that.

that continue.

I'm with you.

Stephen.

I mean, this was one of the great advances of our decade was the fact that we were the number one oil gas producer in the world.

So we got to keep it up and running.

Thank you so much, Stephen.

We'll talk again.

This is the best of the Glenn Beck program.

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And while you're there do us a favor and rate the show this is the glenn beck program hey tonight at nine our response to the coronavirus has crippled our economy and it could get much worse because of the some some of the bad players there that are profiting off of america's uh demise if you will stakes are way too high

We need to get back into the fight as soon as we can and turn the American engine on.

When that is possible, I don't know, but you need to know what's coming beyond the coronavirus.

Tonight, we look at that and the effects of the mainstream media and how the mainstream media is, in my opinion, more dangerous than the coronavirus.

Tonight, 9 p.m., America's most dangerous virus, the media.

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All right, Stu.

Let's look at, let's start with

what do the numbers show us where people think,

how many people

are going to be dead?

What people think this is actually going to look like?

And then let's compare them to what the experts are predicting.

Yeah, I'd love to get that.

So I'm looking for the average person.

Yeah.

I'd love to get your thoughts on this, Pat, too, because Pat Gray joins us from Pat Gray Unleashed.

You know, it's one of these things where this has moved really fast, right?

Like you look at, this is March 11th, okay?

That's in March, no, three weeks ago?

So they asked, if you had to guess, how many people do you think will die in the United States because of coronavirus over the next year?

Okay.

18% of people said less than 100 people.

This is

less than 100?

Less than 100.

Oh, wow.

Okay.

This is as of March 11th.

More than a thousand.

Three weeks ago?

Yeah, three weeks ago.

More than 100 people, but less than 1,000

was 37%.

So half of the people in the United States believed less than 1,000 deaths.

I'll remind you, we're at 4,000 now.

So they've already, we've obviously exceeded that by quite a bit in the three weeks.

More than 1,000, but less than 10,000.

That was another 32%.

So you're at 87%

of people who believed it was going to be less than 10,000.

There's almost no chance it's going to be less than 10,000.

We should hit 10,000 next week with this, the way it's going.

Oh, I bet we hit it earlier than that, don't you think?

Maybe.

I would think

almost 1,000 deaths yesterday.

Almost 1,000 deaths yesterday.

Yesterday was the second highest total of any country during the entire coronavirus scare.

With the exception, I mean, you can't count China, which is obviously lying about their numbers.

I would expect they probably had bigger days than this.

But there was one day in Italy that was higher than our yesterday.

So, I mean, like, it is, you know, it is.

And we're not even at the peak yet.

We're not even at the peak yet.

No, as Trump talked about yesterday,

they believe the peak is going to be in a couple weeks, where it could be multiple thousands per day.

So, and only 12% of the people, only 12% believed it would be over 10,000 dead in the next year.

They redid the exact same poll in March 26, and it's revealing that the poll on March 11th, the highest answer you could give, was over 10,000.

So they didn't even have a category above that.

They had to add that when they asked the poll again.

So they asked again, which this is just at some point humorous,

less than 100, 5% still thought it would be less than 100.

Now at this point, we were going to be able to get away with it.

Another 19% thought it would be less than 1,000.

And again, we

had 10,000 as well on March 26th.

46% still believed it would stay below 10,000.

Again, I don't think that's going to happen.

And 31% said it would be more than 10,000 dead in the next year.

So they broke out that category and said, okay, if you believe it's more, if you're in that 31%, you believe it's more than 10,000, what do you think it will be?

Will it be more than, or less than 100,000?

A third of people believed that.

So about 10% of the total populace.

About 15% of the total populace believed between 100,000 and 1 million.

And the rest was more than a million.

So again,

I don't think it's going to get that high, but still, that is you realize how fast this comes.

We were at a point where half the country was like, oh, less than a thousand deaths three weeks ago, and now we're at 4,000.

And a lot of times, I think this moves just at the pace where it doesn't seem shocking to you on a day-to-day basis.

But when you look at it over a multiple-week basis, you're like, holy crap, this is moving quickly.

So that is, it is scary.

So, what are the real because first of all, I think we're going to hit between 100,000 and a million.

I think a million is a long shot, but I think we hit between 100,000 and a million.

Yeah, a million would be

no model predicts a million unless we do nothing.

Yeah.

Like they all,

you know, there are a lot of models that will say that if we basically just kind of go free-for-all and

enough, and no good news comes.

There's no treatment that pops up or anything like that.

Pat, what's your number?

I mean, I.

Less than 100?

100,000?

Or 100 people?

No, 100,000.

I think around 100,000.

Okay.

Damn, that's a, you That's still a lot.

That's a lot.

That's a lot.

That's a lot.

Now, Fauci says between

100,000 and 240,000.

Yeah.

And that's based on the Imperial College model, which is

the one that also predicted up to 2.2 million if we did nothing.

Yeah.

So, what is the Seattle model?

What is the one that's coming out of Washington State?

Yeah, University of Washington has one that I think has been more reserved and also updates every day, unlike the Imperial College model, which they did.

This one I think is interesting.

They predict the total death count to be 93,765.

Now it's interesting because they update it every day with new information.

Yesterday they were predicting 83,000.

So in one day they've upped it by 10,000, which I would say is not a good sign.

No.

Now that's their best guess.

The high-end and low-end is about 40,000 to about 175,

I would say, is their estimate.

And that's an interesting one because they they really do go and give they give state-by-state estimates as to when they think the peak of each state will hit.

I'll tweet this out at Stu DoesAmerica if you want to kind of go through it and nerd out on the data as well.

But at least kind of gives us a sense.

And this is why you see Trump, you know, I mean, dead serious yesterday, talking about, hey, the next couple of weeks are going to be awful.

Prepare yourself for it mentally.

And of course, obviously, physically, by not, you know, so when is the peak?

Our governor yesterday uh here in texas came out and said schools are not going to return uh until may

uh we're closing everything down until may

uh

uh and what is it may 15th do you guys know i mean when is when is it supposed to hit and peak in texas because it's

it's not really i mean it's here couple of people in my in my town we have a small town of about 900 people there's two people that i heard of just last weekend, so there's got to be more now, but two in my town that have it.

When is it supposed to peak here?

In early May, according to the models,

according to this University of Washington model, May 7th would be a Texas peak.

It's interesting to note that Washington seems to be on the decline already.

They went through a really bad time,

and it looked like they were going to be the state that was out of control, but New York took that from them, and so did New Jersey.

But

their numbers are actually starting to decline now.

So

that's about California.

Yeah, it is.

How's California?

California.

You're saying what peak date for California?

Yeah, what peak?

And I'd like to know Chicago, too.

I mean,

we haven't heard much about Chicago.

Yeah, well, first of all, Chicago, actually, not a state.

It's a city

in the United States.

Illinois, sorry.

April 29th for California would be, or actually, it looks like May 2nd maybe is the California peak.

Again, these are all approximations.

They change every day.

Give you an idea.

Illinois is a little earlier than that,

April 20th.

But you could see there's massive still bars of error here.

And as Dr.

Fauci talked about yesterday, Trump has echoed this as well.

We hope to do a lot better than this, right?

But this is with all of the social distancing stuff that we're doing.

This does not include if we all kind of give up on it.

If we give up on it, all their numbers get uglier, whether you believe it.

Well, if if we give up on it now, I mean, we've already done the damage, man.

Let's not pull out of this thing too early.

You know what I mean?

Let's, let's, there, I think that there's a chance that we come roaring back with all the pent up everything.

There's a chance that we just come roaring back because we'll want to go out and do things.

We'll want to go out and shop and spend money and go to restaurants.

So,

you know, as soon as this thing comes back, if there is a clear kind of cut ending to it,

it will really help the economy.

And there are some positive things that are that

there, for instance, there's a new study by the medical journal, The Lancet, Infectious Diseases, which I usually wait for the swimsuit edition, but I got this a little bit early.

Yeah, yeah.

Really?

The Lancet Infectious Diseases Swimsuit Edition is unreal.

Unbelievable.

It's almost too

explicit.

Too hot.

When they did the swimsuit edition on leprosy.

right?

Remember that?

Gosh, it was good.

Leopard prison for fire.

But

they've done a study and they found this.

The mortality rates have been overstated, is what they're saying.

They said that the mortality rate right now looks like it's going to wind up to be about 0.66%,

which is really promising.

Oh, wait, wait.

Did you hear CNN talk about this?

I don't know.

CNN reported on this.

And CNN, they did all kinds of stuff about how the mortality rate is too high and it's going to come in way under 1%, blah, blah, blah.

See, was I the only one that was screaming, going, wait a minute, you guys were just saying that the president, how dare the president say that when he came out and said it will be under 1%.

I did a whole show on that

stupid, because they were all bashing him at the same time.

It was when the World Health Organization announced it was 3.4% worldwide.

But

every expert was aligned saying it was not going to be 3.4%.

It was

almost about 1% is where they thought it would wind up.

So 0.66 is great.

I think there's a good chance it gets even lower than that

when it comes to the end of this.

I think there's a chance that even that's high.

I got to give you this last story, too.

I mean, you just want to talk about the press and

watch tonight's show.

It's just agonizing.

Try this one on.

Here's the New York Times.

This is from Monday.

New York Times headline.

More Americans probably should wear masks for protection.

They were just telling us, we told you.

No, why would they be saying they need them for the hospital if they do no good?

Of course you should be wearing a mask.

They're trying to make sure that they have enough for the hospitals.

Instead of saying that, they just kept saying, they're no good.

People won't, it won't.

It's not effective at all.

Now they're coming out and telling you, you know what?

Maybe you should wear masks.

Absolutely.

That's worse.

We all should have been wearing masks.

That's unbelievable that's disgraceful, though.

Look, you can say, I think the American people would say, look, we're not going to hoard masks.

You know, like, we, of course, want the health workers to have them first.

But, I mean, to tell us that they're not effective and then say that they are just a little bit later on is disgraceful.

You can't do that.

Well, to say they're not effective at the same time you're saying we need them for the hospitals.

Hello?

Gosh, they just think we're just idiots.