What really goes on at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (Update)

NPR.

This is the indicator from Planet Money.

I'm Darien Woods.

And I'm Waylon Wong.

Here at the indicator, jobs growth is one of our favorite economic indicators.

It's this really direct measure of how the economy is going in a way that has this tangible, wide-reaching effect on everyday people.

But somehow, over the last few days, this has also become one of the most controversial indicators.

On Friday, President Trump posted on Truth Social that he had directed his team to fire the Commissioner of Labor Statistics, Erica McIntyre.

Jacob at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as President Trump took to Truth Social, he said that he is directing his team to fire the head of the commissioner.

And now, this bizarre

firing or soon-to-be firing, what do we know?

Now, William Riotrowski, Deputy BLS Commissioner, is acting until a replacement can be appointed.

This was all after a weak jobs report and major downward revisions to the number of new jobs reported for the previous few months.

Trump posted that the numbers were rigged, and he also accused Erica McIntarfa of faking the jobs numbers before the election to boost Kamala Harris's chances of winning.

We've covered how the Bureau of Labour Statistics has multiple layers of protection from meddling, making that extremely unlikely.

Now, we at the indicator always try to understand, really understand what's going on with economic indicators, even to the extent of going backstage with these bespectacled bureaucrats and eavesdropping on their conversations.

Back in 2022, we did just this to learn how the jobs numbers are put together.

Today on the show, behind the scenes of Jobs Friday, we listen in as tightly held secrets that could move markets are whispered over the phone phone to a Florida call center.

There are two main surveys that go into Jobs Friday.

One that surveys households for things like unemployment and a second survey of businesses and government agencies.

This one is called the Establishment Survey.

And this is where you get the jobs numbers.

And every month, the Establishment Survey interviews about 130,000 employers.

It covers about a third of all non-farm workers in the country.

Some employers complete the survey online, but a lot of it is done the old-fashioned way, over the phone.

Hi, Darian.

It's Erica Henyon with the U.S.

Department of Labor.

How are you doing this afternoon?

I'm doing very well.

How are you?

How are you today?

I'm doing okay.

Erica Henyon is an agent for the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Department of Labor.

She is one of about 300 people working the phones to paint that big picture of jobs in America.

Erica used to work as a bakery manager, so she's no stranger to chatting with people.

And I will attribute that to my mother.

She's a hairdresser, so she's been a person who's always talked to people.

And so I've just been around that.

I mean, hairdressers know everything, Waylon.

Yeah, they do.

I mean, I have spilled many a secret to my hairdresser.

And this chatting is really important because when we spoke, Erica was aiming to make 400 calls for the month with people who don't necessarily want to answer them.

It gets stressful towards the end because you're like, I want to make those numbers.

A lot of businesses, when they call and we talk to them, they're not going to do it because it's not mandatory.

The more people who pick up the phone, the more comprehensive the survey is and the more accurate the Jobs Friday numbers will be.

While I'm on the line, Erica calls up a professional employer organization in Arizona.

This is a kind of company that shares hiring with small businesses.

It's Erica with the U.S.

Department of Labor.

How are you doing today?

Doing good.

I think I guys know your voice by now when you call.

I know.

It's been a while for us.

The way the survey works is that the same business will get a call each month for anywhere between two and four years.

That way, they're already familiar with how the survey works when Erica dials them.

And so for that pay period that included May 12th, then how many total employees worked or receive pay?

80.

80.

Went up another person.

Yay.

We'll take it.

Doesn't happen very often lately, so we'll take it.

No, I know.

Erica asks a few more questions.

The same she'll ask every employer.

How many of their staff are women?

How many are in non-supervisory roles?

Total payroll costs for everybody.

And the total hours were.

And Erica jots down notes for why this company's employees were working more hours this month.

But you have a very happy Memorial Day, and I'll check back in with you in June, okay?

All right.

Thank you.

You too.

Have a good one.

Okay.

So if this is representative of the rest of the economy, then we're doing pretty good in the labor market.

Yep, I will take any little bit of increase that I can see, definitely.

I'm relieved that it's another business that I can check off my list, and then I just put my nose to the grindstone and call the other 399 cases that I have.

399.

We call it smiling and dialing, and you just, you call, you collect the data, you thank them, you schedule them forward, and you hang up, and then you just do the next call.

And then all of a sudden you look up and it's lunchtime, and you're like, where did the morning go?

Has it gotten easier or harder to get people to respond over the years

it has gotten harder

it has gotten harder over over the years especially after the pandemic there has been some pushback from different respondents that don't want to report the data because of of the political economy the way it is and and everything like that there has been some pushback

there is some distrust there and i've actually had a few people that have yelled at me and screamed at me and then they called me back and apologized because they realized that they took it out on their own person i'm their outlet.

I am the person that they can physically talk to about the government.

Well, I'm glad they at least apologize, but it's like maybe they should call their congressperson instead of yelling at Erica.

Yeah, absolutely.

Call your congressperson.

Erica says she tries to get people to stay on the phone by helping them understand why the jobs numbers are so important.

These numbers feed into town planning or business decisions about relocation and also big decisions at the central bank, the Federal Reserve.

So remember that the Federal Reserve has two mandates.

At the moment, it is really focused on getting price inflation down, but it also has the goal to keep employment high, to keep jobs high.

And for those jobs numbers, the chair of the Federal Reserve and his colleagues rely on the numbers spoken to people like Erica in a Florida call center.

I mean, it trickles down to your price of bread, milk, and eggs.

So it does affect you.

You just don't see it.

And along with explaining why the jobs report matters, Erica also makes makes sure to build a strong relationship with the people that she calls.

I have a couple respondents that share a birthday.

And so I'll make sure I put like a note in that they had a birthday or it was their son's birthday party and ask them how everything went and kind of thing.

I've helped some people actually plan vacations to Florida

because they've asked, they've been wanting to visit the area and I'll help them find restaurants that locals like to eat at.

So let me get this straight.

Erica's like an event planner.

She remembers birthdays and special occasions.

She's like a travel agent.

There are many jobs wrapped into this one interviewing job.

It's incredible.

Erica also gets tips about specific industries from people like her hairdresser mother.

I'm like, mom, I'm like, salons.

When should I not call a salon?

And I try and take that into account and I take some advice from her that Tuesdays are her busiest day.

So then I might not call them on a Tuesday to follow up with them.

Erica's soft skills are critical for getting hard numbers correct.

Sometimes you hear a string of months with good jobs numbers, but then they're later revised to be not as stellar.

Other times it's the opposite.

There's been some high-profile revisions recently.

And one reason for those revisions was the Bureau of Labor Statistics finally tracking down those respondents and getting their missing numbers after the deadline for Jobs Friday.

But to get ahead of the clock, Erica does one other call, this one to a corporate office in California.

How many total employees work to receive pay?

That would be 506 employees.

And I feel like it's it's about time for me to leave Erica to continue with her work.

I still have another eight more calls left, and I'm here for like another 45 minutes.

Erica ended up collecting 298 responses before the deadline.

A little less than she'd hoped, but not for a lack of trying.

She said there was one day where she squeezed in a massive 115 calls.

Well, we at the indicator are always looking out for those job numbers.

So we thank you for doing the hard work, getting those three or 400 calls every single month and getting those numbers out there.

Well, thank you.

Special thanks to Nicholas Johnson at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, who really helped to make this whole episode possible.

For more, check out Friday's episode on our sister show, Planet Money.

This episode was produced by Julia Ritchie and Jess Kung.

It was fact-checked by Cyril Huides and Corey Bridges, editing by Viet Lay and Keikin Cannon.

The indicator is a production of NPR.