Western Allies Formally Recognize A Palestinian State. The U.S. Won't.

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Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast.

I'm Danielle Kurtzleben.

I cover the White House.

I'm Frank Cordonez.

I also cover the White House.

And I'm Greg Myri.

I cover national security.

And today on the show, the U.S.

and a number of its allies are finding themselves increasingly at odds over Israel's war against Hamas in Gaza.

In the last several days, some of the U.S.'s most traditional allies, the United Kingdom, Canada, France, and Australia, they've all officially recognized a Palestinian state.

The U.S.

has not.

So, Greg, I want to start with you.

What does recognizing Palestine as a sovereign state actually mean practically?

Like, what does that entail for the country doing the recognizing and what does it change for Palestinians?

Yeah, so broadly speaking, Israel and the U.S.

have always said that negotiations must come first, that you work out these millions of details.

You have to agree on the borders, on security arrangements, on the status of Jerusalem, for example.

It's a city that both the Israelis and the Palestinians claim as a capital.

And once you get an agreement and want this grand grand deal, then the Palestinians would get a state and Israel would have security.

But since negotiations are just so implausible right now, the notion has kind of been flipped.

And we're hearing this from much of the international community, including several additional countries this week.

First, you recognize a Palestinian state, and then you can work out the details later.

Now, Danielle, it's important to remember what happened back in the 1990s, some version of this with the 1993 Oslo Agreement.

President Clinton brought the leaders of Israel and the Palestinians to sign an agreement and they started to build a Palestinian state.

The Palestinian leader, Yasser Arafat, had big offices in Ramallah and Gaza.

Palestinian security forces were created.

A building for a future of Palestinian parliament went up on the edge of East Jerusalem.

So they were in the process of building a state, but it still had to be negotiated.

Now, of course, that all famously broke down in 2000.

We really haven't been very close since then.

I see.

So these countries are theoretically just trying to redo that, to make that happen again.

I would say they're actually taking this sort of opposite approach, declare a Palestinian state, recognize its existence before it actually re-exists in reality.

It doesn't yet have borders or many of the other attributes that a typical state would have.

Now, this thing that you're talking about, recognizing a Palestinian state before negotiations, President Trump spoke about this today at the UN.

Here's what he said.

Now, as if to encourage continued conflict, some of this body is seeking to unilaterally recognize a Palestinian state.

The rewards

would be too great for Hamas terrorists for their atrocities.

This would be a reward for these horrible atrocities.

I want to ask both of you, what do you make of that?

Let me start with you, Franco.

Yeah, I mean, you kind of just heard there that the president is arguing that this is kind of a gift.

It kind of rewards them for taking hostages.

It rewards them for the, you know, horrific attack on Israel on October 7th.

I mean, Trump wants the hostages released first.

And that is something that this morning he pressed allies to focus on together.

But Trump's also, let's remember, his allegiance with Netanyahu and Israel.

Their bond is very close, even under the most difficult circumstances.

I think think the U.S.

is going to stick with Israel on this issue.

And I will say, it's not just Trump.

I mean, this is something that the Biden administration faced as well.

So I do not expect a change in that regard anytime soon.

Yeah, I would just add that symbolically, we seem to be getting closer to a Palestinian state than we've ever been before.

More and more countries, now more than 150 countries, say they support or announce that they would recognize a Palestinian state, at least in principle.

But in practical terms, we seem to be moving further and further away from it.

This terrible war we're witnessing in Gaza.

Israel has a government led by Benjamin Netanyahu that says a Palestinian state is not going to be established.

And the strongest Palestinian group is Hamas, which has never said that it would accept an Israeli state permanently in peace next to it.

So these groups don't even talk to each other.

So the idea that they could sit down and negotiate all of the very difficult details details of statehood is just not even realistic right now.

And I'm reminded of former Secretary of State Jim Baker, who served under George H.W.

Bush, who said famously talking about Middle East peace, we can't want peace more than the parties themselves.

You can't force feed it on them.

Right.

Franco, you've gotten at this a little bit, but I want to ask you point blank, why doesn't the Trump administration join its European allies here?

I mean, like I said, I mean, this is something that the president has made clear that he feels that this would be a gift to Hamas.

And also, again, I mean, the fact is that Israel and the United States have always been in alliance.

And Trump, probably more than any recent president, has been even closer to the Israeli government.

Ever since the beginning of the administration, Trump has been very clear on his support for Netanyahu, Netanyahu's government.

I mean, this is a position that Republicans, in large part as well, are very much aligned with Israel and use that as a political wedge issue as well.

It's not clear how Palestinians in general would certainly welcome the recognition of a Palestinian state.

But the underlying assumption is a Palestinian state would be recognized, but it would also recognize the legitimacy of Israel.

And that's something that Hamas has never done.

So it's not clear that Hamas would fully embrace this.

Yes, they would like a Palestinian state recognized, but it wouldn't mean that Hamas accepts Israel permanently as a peaceful state living next to it.

Right.

While Trump is on Israel's side here, he is also not sharply admonishing his allies who are recognizing a Palestinian state on this move.

Last week in the U.K., with Prime Minister Starmer, Trump almost seemed to take an agree-to-disagree stance.

And I'm wondering, Franco, what do you make of that?

Trump is not shy about lashing out at people he disagrees with.

Yeah, I mean, I would agree.

I do feel that President Trump has been very careful, particularly in this administration, not to disagree as much with European leaders.

You pointed out the meeting with the British Prime Minister.

Trump did say that he disagreed with the UK's decision to recognize a Palestinian state, but he was very clear and very forceful to say that this is one of the very few things that they disagreed on.

And I think that's kind of an example of how this administration is kind of different than his first administration, how Trump has worked hard not to necessarily contradict leaders.

It is also, and probably more so, you know, an example of how European leaders have learned how to get on Trump's good side through the use of flattery and gifts, especially very flashy ones like

historic second state visit in the UK.

Right.

Okay, it is time for a break.

More in a moment.

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And we're back.

And Greg, I want to talk about Israel's response to all of this because it's worth noting that they've been steadfastly opposed to these decisions to recognize Palestinian statehood.

What is their reasoning here?

Yeah, their position, which has been strongly backed by the U.S., is that you do negotiate first and you go all the way back to the 90s, and this is the way it's been done.

Several attempted negotiations, none of which have fully succeeded.

Now, this works to Israel's advantage in a number of ways because it holds all the cards.

It's obviously much more powerful than the Palestinians.

Israeli troops are in Gaza and the West Bank.

The Palestinians have very little leverage, no real cards to play here.

The Palestinians also argue that when it's relatively quiet, the Israelis don't feel any need to negotiate.

Everything is okay from their perspective.

And then when there's violence or some sort of political turmoil, the Israelis say, well, we can't negotiate.

during a time of turmoil.

Therefore, the status quo works well for Israel.

They want to keep it and they always find a reason not to negotiate.

This has been, I think, particularly true during the Netanyahu administration.

He has been prime minister almost continuously from 2009 till today, 16 years with a short break in there.

And he says flat out now that he won't allow the creation of a Palestinian state.

Now, many Palestinians will also say, look, we've tried negotiations.

They didn't work.

Now, as we see these moves towards recognizing a Palestinian state, Netanyahu is threatening to respond, and he may take an action that could include annexing parts of the West Bank.

Israel has a lot of Jewish settlers, hundreds of thousands of settlers in the West Bank, but it has never annexed the West Bank and made it, in their view, sovereign Israeli territory.

It's still disputed territory at this point.

But there are members of Netanyahu's right-wing government saying that Israel should now respond respond to this international call by pushing back and annexing parts of the West Bank.

Right.

And we should also say here that this isn't just about borders and about statehood.

There has been a terrible humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

We've seen photos of starving children, some really horrific images coming out of there.

So Frank, I want to ask you, given the U.S.'s power, given the fact that the U.S.

is Israel's strongest defender, is there any way that this administration can can use its influence to change the Israeli government's conduct in the war against Hamas in Gaza?

I mean, I think if anyone can, it would be the Trump administration, but also his track record is just not very good.

I mean, Trump is only willing to go so far.

I mean, let's just take a few weeks ago when Israel launched an attack.

on Hamas leaders inside Qatar, an important ally of the U.S.

Also, an attack that was not that far from a U.S.

military base.

Now, Trump expressed some disappointment, but there was no action taken, and he was soon defending Israel on opposing Palestinian statehood.

Now, he says it won't happen again, but I think what you are seeing is

the U.S.

continuing to support Israel's military actions.

And I don't think you're going to see that change.

I mean, Netanyahu is even coming to Washington next week.

I don't expect it to be a difficult meeting.

I think you're going to see a lot of camaraderie, and I think you're going to see a united front, particularly on this issue of opposing statehood of the Palestinians.

Yeah, and just a quick reminder, the Israelis and Palestinians reached a ceasefire on January 19th, the day before Trump took office on January 20th.

It did hold for about six weeks or so.

It then fell apart with an Israeli military operation in Gaza.

It's essentially been broken down since then.

And the Trump administration, yes, they want the hostages released.

Yes, they want a ceasefire.

But Trump hasn't put that much pressure on the Israelis, as Franco noted.

And even to the larger question about getting beyond this war and trying to work out some larger, more comprehensive political solution, Trump and his administration really hasn't been talking about.

about that at all.

Yeah, let's remember what Trump has talked about.

He's talked about removing Palestinians from the region.

He's talked about redeveloping the area.

He's talked about resort-like beachfront property.

I mean, this is, you know, Trump definitely has some ideas for that area, and statehood is probably not one of them.

Right.

Well, I'm going to take a really big step back here and ask about how both here and in the war in Ukraine, we've seen the U.S.'s European allies stand apart from the U.S.

I'm wondering if you guys can address what does this moment say about the U.S.'s role in foreign affairs and how has that changed under Trump?

Greg, let's start with you.

Sure.

I mean, we've all heard lots of talk, particularly among think tanks or panel discussions about the way the world is changing.

The world post-World War II order led by the United States is breaking down.

Here, I think, with the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, you see two concrete examples, and you really see where that's happening.

In Ukraine, Trump says, this is not our war.

We're not the ones to sort this out.

The Europeans need to do more.

The U.S.

is doing some very limited things.

Trump says, I will sell weapons to NATO countries which they can give to Ukraine.

He thought his relationship with Putin would sort this out.

That hasn't happened.

The U.S.

is not leading in this major conflict in Europe, something unthinkable for decades.

And in Gaza, the Trump administration, like other U.S.

administrations, Republican and Democratic, has been very strongly supportive of Israel.

So that's not new.

The Palestinians often describe the U.S.

as Israel's lawyer in this conflict.

But previous administrations have spoken openly about the desire for a two-state solution that would give the Palestinians a state and would bring security to Israel.

That's just not what we're hearing for the Trump administration.

And again, he says very, very little about the humanitarian suffering in Gaza.

Right.

Yeah, I mean, I'd say like when Trump came into office, a lot of people looked to his America-first policies and expected kind of a pulling back from international affairs.

And I think you do not see that.

And I think his record shows that he wants to be very involved in international affairs.

I think what is very different, though, that he wants to do it on his terms and not on multilateral terms, not on European terms.

I don't think that means that Europe is totally on its own.

here, but they can only do so much.

And Trump is clearly going to be a reluctant player on some of these big conflicts, as kind of Greg was describing.

And Europe is going to have to use all the powers of persuasion to convince this administration to take certain steps if they want the U.S.

to increase pressure on Israel and Russia.

And they've only, you know, been so successful so far.

All right, we're going to have to leave it there for today.

Until tomorrow, I'm Danielle Kurtzlaban.

I cover the White House.

I'm Frank Ordoñas.

I I also cover the White House.

I'm Greg Myri, and I cover national security.

And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.

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