Roundup: Shutdown Threat, Tariffs & Ukraine

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Hey there.

It's the NPR Politics Podcast.

I'm Asmakhaled.

I cover the White House.

I'm Frank Ordonez.

I also cover the White House.

And I'm Claudia Grizadis.

I cover Congress.

And since it is Friday, we've got our weekly roundup of political news for you all.

And it has certainly been a long, busy week here in Washington.

Years.

We're in our 80s now.

So we're going to begin the show with the latest from Capitol Hill and the fight to keep the government open ahead of a midnight deadline.

And Claudia, I want to begin the conversation with you because Republicans need votes from Democrats to pass a spending bill and avert that government shutdown.

I have a lot of questions on the intra-Democratic fighting we've seen.

But first, I think we need to take a step back.

So can you just remind us how we got to this point where once again, Congress is flirting with a government shutdown?

Right.

This is now a regular tradition in Washington, government shutdown threats, but this one is getting pretty close and the partisan divide is pretty deep.

And Republicans put this entire plan together on their own.

There were bipartisan negotiations to pass annual spending appropriations bills.

That's what we see usually Congress do at some point in the fiscal year, but not this time.

We're seeing a rarity where they're going to pass a so-called continuing resolution.

And this stopgap bill will keep funding at last year's levels.

And that could lead to some dramatic cuts.

for federal agencies or federal entities.

That's alarmed Democrats.

They've been left out of the talks when it came to the CR, but this is what Republicans jumped on along with President Trump.

And so in the House, Republicans could pass it on their own.

That's not the same in the Senate.

Republicans only have 53 seats.

And we are hearing about at least one Republican who may vote no.

That's Rand Paul of Kentucky.

And so they may need eight Democrats to overcome filibuster, to get the 60-vote threshold.

Claudia, I want to ask you about Democratic strategy here.

It seemed like Democrats were not necessarily definitively forecasting what they were going to do, or I should say, not all Democrats.

But then yesterday, Senator Chuck Schumer from New York, the leader in the Senate for Democrats, signaled that he'd help Republicans keep things running despite some misgivings.

While the CR bill is very bad,

the potential for a shutdown has consequences for America that are much, much worse.

For sure, the Republican Republican bill is a terrible option.

It is not a clean CR.

It is deeply partisan.

It doesn't address far too many of this country's needs.

But I believe allowing Donald Trump to take

even much more power via a government shutdown is a far worse option.

I don't think it is an overstatement to say that a number of Democrats were livid with that response, Claudia.

What are you hearing from them?

Yeah, the fury is intense here.

And there are questions about how does this party move forward.

This issue is deeply divided Democrats.

We saw House Democrats largely hold the line.

They were opposed.

Some moderates in Trump districts took a difficult position and voted no against this bill, thinking Senate Democrats would follow suit.

And that's the kind of message that Schumer telegraphed telegraphed a day earlier.

The votes aren't there.

We're not going to give you the seven, eight Democratic votes.

You may need Republicans to get this past the filibuster because we're not prepared to support it.

And so that's what Democrats were thinking.

Okay, we may be heading into a shutdown.

That's why it feels so close this time.

But after several days of closed-door meetings for Democrats, for that lasted hours, we could hear yelling outside of the doors, very intense.

This really deeply divided the party.

And there's a lot of concern in terms of how they move forward.

And part of this goes back to concerns about the party being asleep at the wheel while Republicans are moving at a breakneck speed.

So Franco, I imagine the White House has got to be thrilled that this spending plan that the Democrats had no role in shaping is now going to be passed as they had intended.

I mean, I think they're very excited that.

They're also very excited about the dysfunction that's going on in the Democratic Party.

And you might even be able to argue that Trump is stoking that a little bit when he issued a statement just today praising Schumer for saying that he would vote in favor of the Republican bill, writing congratulations that it took, quote, guts and courage.

And this was just days after Trump was lashing out at Schumer and the Democrats amongst talk that Senate Democrats then would not back the Republican bill.

So this is a big flip of the switch, but for sure, the White House and Republicans are feeling very confident and in a position of power.

Claudia, I've heard that quote that we've just listened to from Schumer a few times, that somehow a government shutdown would allow Donald Trump to take even more power.

And some Democrats would say Trump already has a lot of power, right?

He's already already slashed the federal government.

So can you explain what is Schumer's reasoning?

One of the concerns that I've heard from Senate Democrats is: what is the ultimate impact on federal workers if there was a shutdown?

Could they face more of these dramatic cuts, see more dismantling of sections of the federal government?

But at the other side of that argument, I also heard federal workers wanted a shutdown because layoffs were due yesterday to the president from each agency.

There's all sorts of rumors.

We already saw the Department of Education is going to get cut in half.

And so federal workers thought the ones that wanted a shutdown that they would get a break, that they could get Democrats in there to try and stop all this momentum that Republicans have on their end.

So I heard arguments on both sides.

It was a very difficult decision for Democrats to make on this.

You know, I mean, just I think this goes to, you know, some of the success that the White House strategy has had on Democrats and just throwing every single thing possible at the wall in order to keep Democrats and any opposition off of their heels using all different steps to kind of put the pressure on in so many ways that Democrats just have yet to find a consensus, find a way to fight back, to attack.

They are just so much on the defensive.

You're just not seeing them speak with a unified voice.

So just to be abundantly clear, Hurt, now that Schumer has given his reluctant, let's say, blessing, does that mean that Republicans have the votes?

And Claudia, you do not expect the government to shut down tonight.

I am not sure.

But with Schumer making those remarks, what that signals is that there's enough members there, enough senators there that will vote yes.

There are a lot of groups of senators who haven't told us what they plan to do.

So it's not clear this will get done.

There's a lot of anger and fury even within the Senate Democratic Caucus.

They may be on track to get this done, but it's not 100% sure.

All right.

Well, let's take a quick break, and we'll have more in a moment.

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And we're back.

And we're going to turn now to the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue here in Washington, to the White House, where this week, President Trump's unorthodox approach to the economy, to foreign policy, to diplomacy, were on full display.

The White House continued to make markets nervous this week.

You know, those 25% steel and aluminum tariffs on all countries went into effect.

And then the administration threatened more tariffs, like a 200% tariff on wine and champagne from Europe.

And Franco, these tariffs have often been discussed of as a possible negotiation tactic.

But the president does not seem to be backing down here.

And this is having tangible economic consequences here at home.

I mean, we saw new numbers today that showed consumer confidence plunged again this month.

Businesses don't seem to like this chaos.

The stock market seems spooked.

But do you see any indication that any of those economic data points are actually giving President Trump a pause or a reason to reconsider?

I mean, he does not appear to be backing off.

He absolutely appears to be doubling down, and he is saying that himself.

I am one like you who have said that, you know, with these tariff threats, you need to be cautious, you need to watch.

So often is the case that Trump uses these as a negotiating tactic.

Even after they're done, let's see how those kind of play out.

You saw that with Mexico, with Canada.

He pulled back, did another, you know, month-long extension over the last ones.

But this is getting more real.

And you definitely see that in the responses from Wall Street.

You see that in kind of at the White House as well with these, you know, messages from different top officials saying, look, if you try to anger the president, he is going to come back even angrier.

Wall Street has taken this approach that, especially on terrorists, that you take Trump seriously, but not literally.

This is a bit differently because as you point out, the stock market is absolutely

struggling.

It's been tumbling.

The S ⁇ P 500 has fallen 10%

after recent highs.

I mean, we're talking correction territory.

That is a very serious indication that this is more real than in the past.

And President Trump has in the past, I guess I would say in his first term, seen the stock market as sometimes an indicator of his success.

And that doesn't seem to be the case this time.

He seems to be saying, hey, it's going to take a while.

This might be a period of transition.

I would say that he is still promoting caution and trying to let people know that, look, there could be a time of transition, as you say, that it could be challenging for a while, but things will turn around.

I would argue that Wall Street is absolutely the thing that could impact Trump.

And you are starting to hear from executives, from lobbyists for Wall Street speaking out.

There are all these reports of senior officials receiving panic calls from these people, raising concerns about the markets, concerns about uncertainty, of of unpredictability.

Trump is known for liking to keep things unpredictable.

He's changing his mind here and there.

Well, the markets don't like that and executives don't like that because they're unable to plan.

But for example, with the 200% on wine and European goods, that certainly seems to be a doubling down and a retaliation threat to some of the moves that Europe is going to make.

So

let's see how this standoff plays out.

And it's also interesting, Asma, you bring up Trump's first term and how different this second term is, is, how emboldened the president is.

I think normally in the first term, we would have heard from Republicans in Congress raising concern and alarm over these tariffs and the impact on the economy.

We're seeing it percolate in the poll numbers already in terms of concerns with how this could impact the economy.

And so now what we're seeing is such a united Republican Party, the most united Republican Party behind President Trump than we have ever seen.

This has helped make Trump much more emboldened to pursue these tariffs.

It almost feels like an experiment in terms of the calculations of what we're going to do here and there, as Franco was mentioning.

And there's less of an opportunity to try and talk the president out of some of these tariffs that could have a detrimental impact.

All right.

Another bit of major news out of the White House this week are the efforts to end the war in Ukraine.

It appears that there's been sort of momentum, it seems, around trying to reach a ceasefire.

And Franco, I know you've got some reporting on this.

What is the latest on that front?

Yeah, Ukraine has signed on to a U.S.

proposal for a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine.

Trump says it's now up to Russia and that he's had conversations with Putin and that he feels optimistic that they are closer to an end in the fighting.

But, you know, like the tariffs, this is something that we have to watch with a very sober

perspective.

This is a very complex issue, a lot of different parts, a lot of unpredictability.

But that said, the White House is certainly taking some credit for, you know, their unorthodox approach to these negotiations.

Whereas the Biden administration has said it would support Ukraine for as long as it takes.

Trump has done completely different.

You know, and just in speaking about unorthodox approaches, just like Trump is speaking with Putin, you know, the Trump administration is also in direct talks with Hamas in regards to the situation in Gaza.

I mean, to be talking with an organization that the government sees as a terrorist group.

But this is how the Trump administration is working, and you could argue that it's paying some dividends.

Hamas just today said that it's willing to release the one Israeli-American hostage that is still alive, as well as releasing some of the bodies of other dual citizens who have died.

And Claudia, any chatter over on Capitol Hill about this new Ukraine approach that we're seeing from the White House?

Well, clearly, there is a divide for Republicans here who want the United States to completely drop its support for Ukraine and let things play out.

But there is a significant share of Republicans here who are hopeful that there will be a breakthrough.

There was quiet alarm here, as I mentioned.

Republicans publicly are very united behind the president, but quietly they wanted to get Ukraine back in these talks to see if they could reach some sort of a deal after that dramatic blowup at the White House.

And so what I've heard from senators, such as the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, this is Roger Wicker,

is that they need to stay quiet here and let these negotiations continue.

And he signaled that perhaps there's a lot of back channeling going on.

on here in terms of trying to support returning to the progress that they were seeing on this front.

and there's a hopeful sense here they'll move a lot faster than what we saw with the Biden administration.

All right, well, we have got a quick note here before we take a break.

President Trump will be visiting the Justice Department headquarters.

It's something that doesn't happen all too often, though we should point out that both George W.

Bush and Barack Obama did pay visits during their presidencies.

Trump is giving a speech about restoring law and order, and it's another instance of the president seeming to blur the lines that have existed for a long time between his office and other parts of government.

Alrighty, we've got one more quick break, and then it's time for Can't Let It Go.

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And we're back, and it's time now for our favorite part of the show, Can't Let It Go.

That's the part of the show where we talk about the things that we just cannot stop thinking about, politics or otherwise.

Otherwise.

And Franco, what about you?

This is something that I think will be close to your heart, Osma.

The thing that I can't let go this week is, you know, the ongoing fallout over

LeBron James confronting ESPN Stephen A.

Smith

at a recent game over comments that Smith made about LeBron James' son, Bronny, and the struggles

many would argue, I don't think too many would dispute, that he has had on the court and perhaps lack of production.

Stephen A.

Smith has talked about how,

you know, LeBron shouldn't be doing this to his son and raising concerns that he's putting him in a position that is uncomfortable for his son.

And LeBron came to Smith during the game in the third quarter and said, stop talking about my son.

Stop talking about my son.

And it's kind of blown up and it's gone back and forth.

Stephen A.

Smith's talked about it a few times on ESPN, but also on some podcasts.

On the one hand, that he understands a father coming to defend his son, but also, you know, criticizing him for doing that, you know, in such a public way and not in private.

And I will admit, I've kind of like torn feelings, and I think that's why I can't let it go.

I don't know what the right thing is.

Of course, you know, Bronny is a professional player.

He's going to get scrutiny with that.

But also, can you blame, you know, a father for coming to defend his son?

I'm not sure he's really helping his son by doing that.

Yeah, that's true.

That sounds a little helicopter apparent to me.

It is.

It is.

It sounds like when you go to see your kid at a time,

and you make a scene on the sideline.

I don't do that because I watch the other parents do it, Claudia.

And I'm very happy.

Exactly, same, save.

Why are you doing that?

Same.

I've been told I'm a little loud.

Really?

Franco?

At the side of the corner.

See, I always got nervous when my parents would come.

Like, if I was playing tennis, I would tell my parents to

come.

I don't make a scene.

Even though she doesn't make a scene, I would just get nervous if they came and watched it.

Okay, I guess what you're trying to tell me is I can relate with LeBron.

Yes.

I'm glad Stephen A.

Smith is not coming to my

song.

Take note, everybody.

Franco's coming.

Osma, what about you?

So I saw this story in CNN the other week about how an employee at the Office of Personnel Management, which for folks who don't really know what that office does,

it has been involved in the reduction of the federal workforce.

And so anyhow, so there's this employee there who apparently had an Instagram account, a fashion Instagram account, which look, I can relate to.

I too love fashion.

You know, have a cute outfit, take a photo, photo, next to a full-length mirror, like cash tie back.

That's right.

I mean, but I don't like post it for,

well, sometimes I kind of do.

If it's a really good one, I might post it on my Instagram.

But anyhow, so this person was posting their photos there while also taking some of these photos at the OPM office.

Kind of a bit of a double-duty side hustle situation going on here and encouraging people where they could buy the said outfits that they have.

And what seems to have been rather controversial is some of these photos were taken videos at the OPM office, which is kind of a no-no.

Right, but it's multitasking.

I mean, I guess some folks would argue this is very efficient.

So it's part of the Department of Efficiency, government efficiency approach to the work.

So maybe we'll see more side hustles from other workers.

And hey, I mean, considering how these things work, I mean, this could, you know, if she gets that Instagram page up again, she might get a lot more subscribers.

Right.

Right.

You don't get subscribers.

Unless you're really big, Franco.

And then you can like make money.

You know, that takes a lot to be a content creator.

Yes.

Why are you downplaying her?

This could be big.

All right, Claudia, what about you?

So I have to torment you guys with my forever can't let it go.

Taylor Swift.

What do you have?

We are in a drought, okay?

The Swifties are in a deep depression.

We have been plunged into a deep depression.

She has not been cited very much in a long time.

And she had a difficult end to the year.

And so did her boyfriend, Travis Kelsey.

He lost at the Super Bowl.

She didn't get anything at the Grammys.

And it's like they have disappeared.

And so...

My Swifties, I have like a little Swifty text group, and we're always keeping each other posted on any sighting because she hasn't posted, by the way, on Instagram.

This is the longest drought on Instagram since I believe 2017.

We had fantastic news this week that my Swifty group is so pumped about is there's a new pop-up bar that's opened this past week.

And it's basically a Taylor Eros tour pop-up bar.

And it's all Taylor music.

It's lots of glitter, a lot of sequence, and all these foods.

They can make this expression like, when is my daughter going to make me take her there?

Except it's a bar, so you can't take her.

No, no, no, you can.

You can.

So children.

There are ours under 18.

There's mock tails there, by the way.

And then on the drink menu, they have lavender haze.

So all like parts of titles of her music or lines in her music.

By the way, the lavender haze has gin, lavender honey, lemonade, and lavender, a lavender sprig in there.

So really beautiful.

And I don't know if you guys heard, but at the Arist Tour, they had all kinds of tailor-themed drinks that you could buy with these kind of names.

So it's like we get to get together, commiserate on how much we miss miss her so this is just an announcement a psa if you know a swifty in your life check on them make sure they're doing okay support them i feel like this is great news for you claudia

i'm going this weekend my shifty and let us know how it is i will i will all right well that is a wrap for today's show but before we go we want to hear what you all are up to please send us your timestamps those are the little blurbs that you hear at the top of every episode like the one you heard today and if you need advice advice or guidance on what to say, you can go back and listen to the start of the show and then record a voice memo of yourself as you're going about your day.

You can send those to nprpolitics at npr.org.

And who knows, you might just hear it at the start of an upcoming episode.

Our executive producer is Mathsoni Maturi.

Casey Morrell edits the podcast.

Our producers are Brea Suggs and Kelly Wessinger.

Special thanks to Krishna Dev Callimer.

I'm Asmafollen.

I cover the White House.

I'm Frank Ordenez.

I I also cover the White House.

And I'm Claudia Grizalez.

I cover Congress.

And thank you all for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.

And we're back and it is time now in the show for Can't Let It Go.

What was I going to say?

Sorry, what off script?

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