74. The Trump Exodus: Why Are People Leaving The United States?

Hello and welcome to the Restus Politics US to our Monday, except that it's not Monday, it's Tuesday.

But anyway, live stream for our founding members.

Welcome, everybody who's on.

I'm Catty Kaye.

And I'm Anthony Scaramucci, fresh back from London.

And I see some people like Joanne Haswell came out to the Jury Lane Theatre on Sunday night, Catty.

I bet that was.

I really wish I had seen that.

I wish I had gone to that.

Joanne, when I kissed Dominic Sandbrook, that uptight Brit, he didn't really like it.

And then he tried to deny that I kissed him, Caddy, but.

I have the photos.

What happened?

It was a magical, it was a magical moment for me.

And you've never seen anybody more horrified in your life.

You have been a big fan of Dominic's for years.

I imagine he starts kissing on the stage was exactly what you want.

Exactly what he did not want.

Yes, exactly.

I said to him, Dom, I'm comfortable with my sexuality.

Come over here.

Let me give you a kiss.

You know what he said?

I'm not comfortable with my sexuality

as I was moving in on him.

He wasn't comfortable.

Oh, well, I'm glad.

I really wish I could have gone.

It sounded like that was a fantastic event.

We got people from everywhere.

We got people from Wales, Bristol, Amsterdam, Madrid.

I am very excited because Alice is joining us from Shrewsbury.

I have actually seen the Shrewsbury football team play twice.

They are known as the Sheep Shaggers.

Do you know what that means, Anthony?

I don't.

I really don't want want to know.

No, let's pass.

This is a family show, so we'll pass on that anyway.

I have seen the sheep shaggy.

I got a shout out to Jane, though.

Jane came to see me on the British Airways flight.

Thank you, Jane.

Oh,

taking selfies in the plane.

That's great.

Listen, I hope people know I'm very approachable.

You are.

You become...

Just don't throw orange paint at me or something like that.

Because my favorite color, orange, is like Bitcoin orange, not Donald Trump orange.

You're just.

Anyway, big shout out to Jane and her friend for being so nice to me on the flight.

It's getting out of control.

We're going to need to get this back in control, everybody.

Okay.

What do you want to talk about?

If you're a founding member joining us live, drop us a message in the chat.

We love getting your comments and questions.

You can tell that Fiona wrote that for me because I read it so perfectly.

Listen, today I want to talk about something that I think has not got enough attention, and that is the impact that these cuts on scientific research that are all part of the Doge process are going to have on America.

We've said several times, maybe a little glibly, that this isn't make America great again.

It could be make America weak again.

And just in the last few days, I've been speaking to scientists who say all of the other cuts are getting so much attention

and the tariffs are getting so much attention.

And of course, we'll speak about that later this week when we do our regular podcast, because we'll have the tariffs then.

But what is not getting much attention are these billions of dollars that are being cut from American scientific research,

without which which America would not have its preeminence in the world of research, wouldn't have the kinds of breakthroughs that it's had in science.

And I just thought that would be something interesting and different for us to dig into.

Because I do think, you know, we're trying to always, on this podcast, look at what matters and what doesn't matter and what has a long-term impact on this country and what doesn't have a long-term impact on this country.

And I think the cuts in scientific research could be one of those things that both have a long-term impact and do matter and are not getting enough attention.

So that was why I wanted to talk to you.

What do you think about it?

I think it's fascinating.

Obviously, the statistics bear out what you're saying, but give me the theory of the case.

Channel the administration.

Tell me the theory of the case, because I

think what we're both trying to do is I really do want to understand their theory.

I want to understand why they're going at Delinsky, why they want to crush the automobile industry in the U.S.

They've brought the U.S.

stock market down 13%

since they started this debacle.

The relative flows are going into Germany versus the U.S., etc.

But give me the theory of the case.

I'm going to cut the research.

I'm going to have people like Peter Stein leave the FDA.

So I want to dumb down the system for what reason exactly.

Give me the theory of the case.

So the argument that Elon Musk seems to be making, and I think he is driving this, it's great.

Thanks, by the way, everyone who's putting in comments about

people they know who are scientists who agree with us that this is such an important topic.

So, the argument that Elon Musk is making is that there is a lot of bloat and inefficiency in the procurement process for getting government grants for scientific funding.

And many people that I have spoken to will say, yes, there is inefficiency in the system.

It takes too long to do the paperwork.

It takes too long to get the grants.

And Elon's theory is that basically the private sector is better off doing everything, including scientific research.

And so let's cut the amount of money that the government spends and science and private sector will jump in and start doing this.

The counter argument that I've heard is that particularly in the field of kind of medical research, and this goes beyond just medical research, but one example that was given to me was that the drugs

the obesity drugs that we now know of, Ozempic and Wagovi, which are proving to be incredibly popular here in the United States.

And one scientist described them to me as something that will literally change the health of humanity going forward.

The research for those drugs, the foundational research, was actually done 20 years ago with grants from the National Institute of Health, the American big healthcare funding project.

And that at the time, the research was seen as too risky, too high risk, not enough return for any private sector company to touch it.

And it took 20 years of research for them to be able to come up with a Zenpic and Guagovi.

And if it had not been for that American government financing, we wouldn't have those drugs today.

There are countless examples of this.

You know this, Anthony, but that is why I thought that was an interesting example because it's something a drug that everybody's talking about.

And we literally wouldn't have it if it hadn't been for government research because the companies would have thought this is a 20-year

investment against my company's PL, L, and my shareholders just won't let me take that on.

So some of this stuff is a moonshot.

Some of it pans out and some of it doesn't.

But in the case of the stuff that does, it's transformational for America and America's competitiveness in the world.

Aaron Powell, and so to cut it back, we're doing that to save money, we're doing that to dumb down the society, we're doing that to have intellectual capital flight away from our universities, away from our research centers.

There's one doctor in the chat here saying that obviously these graduate programs will end up closing.

They'll have less private centers for research, Caddy.

So, and this is good for America for what reason?

What's the reason?

Well, I think the idea is, firstly, that there is an anti-expertise bias potentially

generally, an anti-academia bias.

Clearly, we're saying that play out.

And this money that goes to the National Institutes of Health basically then gets

funneled to universities.

They kind of outsource the research, is my understanding.

And that the private sector will do it.

Now, the private sector then builds, and this is

people that probably know a lot more about this than we do.

Doors expert is saying that academic research establishes the foundation for private company drug discovery.

So, but without, yes, the private companies then take the ball and run with it, but without that academic research, you're not going to have that

discovery in the first place.

And I think if you framed this So I think what's happening to your question, Anthony, and it may be happening across the board, is that there is such a focus in Doge and in Elon Musk's cutting of the government.

The focus is on the targets.

So let's cut everything by 20%,

or let's cut everything by 10,000 people, whatever it is, that you focus so much on the target that you're not focusing necessarily on the actual thing that you're cutting.

I mean, I think if the message went out that Americans are not going to get the latest and best new antibiotics because of the cuts that are taking place, there may be more of an uproar about this.

Or as Roland says, you know, the disruption to the mRNA vaccine research is insane, the kind of research we needed for COVID.

What do you think?

I mean, you're asking the question, and I think you're asking it because you make a...

We go through waves of doing this, by the way.

I mean, so we have, it's like anti-incumbency.

We're now in an anti-vax, we're in an anti-science wave.

I think if we're being brutally honest with everybody, I mean, the vaccines probably lessened symptoms, but there was some people that said before the vaccines came into place that they would stop the COVID or prevent you from getting it.

Every one of us ended up getting it, and maybe it did lessen symptoms.

I'm not an anti-vaxxer, but you know what happens.

If you get a kernel of truth in something, you can really spin it into sometimes some level of absurdity.

So this anti-expertise movement that you're talking about, I think, is a big part of it.

I think the people in the society that do feel left out, that champion in Donald Trump, they feel that they've been shafted, if you forgive me for saying it so directly, by the media, shafted by Wall Street.

They've been shafted by the medical community.

And so why not push back?

It's almost like, see, again, I'm imploring everybody to look at Trump administration decision making through the prism of the culture war.

See him as Napoleon.

He can see the entire field.

And if he's attacking the science and he's attacking the doctors, it's good for his base.

His base sees that as anti-elitism.

It sees it as anti-establishment, and they like it.

They're like, okay, we'll show those rich, smug, know-it-all doctors.

We'll show those rich, smug Wall Streeters,

media people.

But don't you think, I mean, that's such an interesting way of framing it.

So that trumps, to forgive the pardon, the argument that Americans like their health care.

They might not like the system, but they go to the doctor a lot.

They use pharmaceuticals a lot.

They like the idea that America has the best healthcare system in the world.

They like the idea that when they go to the doctor for treatment, they know they are getting the latest and the best therapeutics for whatever it is they have.

They like the idea that it is America that comes up with the cutting-edge therapeutic for Alzheimer's or cancer or, I don't know, atomic energy even.

This goes beyond, you know, geriatric care.

Don't you think that that is something that Americans are proud of having?

And I'm not talking about blue state Americans here.

I'm talking about equally about red state Americans.

They would hate the idea that America didn't have the best healthcare service in the world.

Because

how does that fit into the MAGA idea?

Oh, you remember the science, Caddy, when the Tea Party, first of all, The MAGA movement is an evolution from the Tea Party movement and from Occupy Wall Street.

It's almost like Occupy Wall Street and the Tea Party had a baby and the baby was MA, right?

And then Donald Trump became the father figure of MAGA, but I submit to you that there would have been another figure.

Trump is a part of this thing, but there was a populist movement and there would have been a political leader like a Nigel Farage that championed that movement.

Maybe they wouldn't have been as successful as Trump, but there would have been a movement.

And those people used to hold up signs, Caddy.

Get your government hands off my Medicare.

And you're laughing.

Could you remember the signs?

And then reporters would go, it's a government program.

And they'd be like, it's a government program.

And then they put the sign down.

And so what's going on is no one's explaining that to them.

No one's saying, hey, you know, Trump's cutting this stuff.

He's pulling the doctors.

And they say, yeah, good, give it to the doctors.

And then the second question is, oh, by the way, Trump's cutting this stuff.

He's giving it to the doctors.

And it's now going to hurt you when you go to the doctor's office.

Oh, wait, wait, no, no, I don't want that.

Right.

You see, you see, see the superficiality.

Because you're not getting the full story.

Yeah, it's superficial.

But my thing is, is Trump Brexiting America from the world?

Okay, so just hear me out for a second and react to it.

I feel like Trump has decided I'm going to disengage America from the world the way the United Kingdom disengaged itself from the EU.

Moreover, I'm going to pile on some austerity with Doge.

And so I'm going to create a multiple decade cataclysm for America.

But I'm doing it because of the culture war.

We're going to show those foreigners, teach those foreigners a lesson.

We're going to block them from coming into the country.

There will be less jobs in the country, but don't worry, whatever jobs there are, no foreigners will get that job.

And you'll have less wages and you'll be more miserable and you'll have less medical care.

But this is what we're going to do because this is going to, we're going to own the libs if we do this.

But I'm using the word Brexit as a verb in the sense that I believe that Trump is Brexiting America from the world.

And he's doing it on the healthcare side.

He's doing it on the allies side.

He's doing it from a military perspective, immigration perspective.

And I think it's going to have a similar outcome for America.

What's your reaction to that?

Yeah, I think...

I think there's a, look, a couple of things.

When you were talking about expertise just now, that did remind me of a discussion I I heard before Brexit actually on UK television about economics and somebody who actually was on the Brexit side saying, well, we don't want economists, you know, running our economic policy plans because they've got it wrong so far.

I mean, I don't know who you want running your economic policy plans, but the implication was that you don't want expertise.

And to bring it back to this particular case of the scientific research, I think you're right, because what is likely to happen now is that America is going to be further cut off from the world in two ways.

It's going to lose good academic talent.

You're already seeing that happening in the scientific field

with academics who are going to go to Canada or going to go to Europe.

You're seeing the Chinese put out ads literally saying, come to Guangzhou, it's right near Hong Kong.

Everybody speaks English.

It's great.

Come and live here, you scientists, because we will reward you and let you do your scientific research.

So in that respect, it's going to get more isolated.

It's going to lose a lot of its talent.

But it's also that it's going to cut itself off in the sense that if the research is not being done here, the big pharmaceutical companies for their RD, one doctor told me, medical researcher told me, are likely to start pushing all of that R and D abroad as well, which we've just realized the implications of having our supply chains dependent on other countries.

But we're going to get even more dependent.

I mean, weirdly, the idea is to make us more isolated, but we're going to be dependent on other countries doing our RD for the medicines that we want.

I mean,

it doesn't,

they're just, you know, when you look at the stats, what is it?

It's for every dollar invested in research and development in America in science, the returns are about $5 in economic gain.

The Dallas Fed had this research that just came out.

The government funding in research accounts for a fifth of all growth in American productivity since World War II.

A fifth, 20% of all growth in American productivity came from government research and funding.

The idea that you can just say, well, we're going to cut ourselves off from the rest of the world, we'll lose our good academics, we won't do our scientific research funding, what are you going to do then?

What are you going to do when you have a crisis of Alzheimer's or aging as we are heading into an aging population and you need those drugs?

You're going to have to get them from somebody else.

And then you're going to be, you think you might have Brexited, but you're going to be dependent on somebody else's supply chains.

i guess i i it's so hard for me so i'm just trying to this is one of the hard this is why i want to

tell this it's one of the hardest things for me to understand when america's you know i got i got paid a compliment the other night at the jury lane theater they said that i they said that i cursed less than you i was so i was i was so happy i was about to let out like a fire bombing of cursing and then i remembered this compliment from the jury lane theater that i cursed less than catty cats can i tell you what i was so happy You thump your table more and Paul Fiona is chatting into us.

Okay, I'm not going to thump the table, Fiona, but I'm doing my best not to curse

MFing crazy.

Donald Trump is

twice.

But let me just ask.

This is mad.

But let me just ask you this because it's super important for me, and you have a different perspective than me.

So

I'm going to create Liberation Day,

which actually became liquidation quarter, meaning the first quarter of 2025, we liquidated the capital markets in the United States.

The Fed is now talking about the likelihood of a recession.

And it could probably be the first quarter of 2026.

We're probably going to have a contraction in the economy.

And then, so what happens is, because to make the sense, you get a positive flywheel, confidence, spending, spending, earnings, earnings, stock market growth, but you can get a negative flywheel.

And so,

Mr.

President, you're creating a negative flywheel.

Oh, yes, I'm doing that, but these countries have ripped us off.

And so now I'm going to get back at them.

And so they're going to pay their fair share and not rip us off anymore.

That's not going to happen,

Caddy.

It's not going to happen.

So just go ahead.

You try to explain it.

You know, there's a lot of people listening.

Before I do,

they want to understand it, and it's hard understand we're going to take a quick break and we will be right back

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I mean, you're getting to the point about what are they trying to do with all of this and is it purely ideology?

And do they think they have so much power?

Is there such hubris that they can bend

the systems that have been in place for the last 70 years to their will in a way that will recreate the country in the model, the image they like.

America that is more independent, America that has more power over other countries, but in a transactional, non-multilateral way, that just negotiates everything.

You sent me that great piece of research by Michael Grief on this.

America that just negotiates everything on a kind of two-way basis, but with a sort of slight stick, not a carrot.

And is that what they're really trying to do?

And they think with the tariffs, that in the end, yes, okay, the market won't like it.

There could be a bit of a shock.

I'm sure they don't buy the argument that there could be a 2026 recession, but that

it will,

I mean,

I guess the president genuinely believes, although this is not what most economists say, that it's just going to bump up manufacturing and produce jobs in such a way that it will replace

what is lost from the imports.

I mean, that's the argument they keep making, right?

But they, it, I think, what I see on the scientific side, where they think, well, the private we will do this and the private sector will step in because that's what Elon fundamentally believes, and that you just don't want government doing anything, or on the tariff side, we can defy history and make this not a tax for American consumers, not have a market run, not have a recession potentially.

And we,

there is just this incredible sense, I guess, of confidence that they can do things differently across the board and the result will be the country they want.

Is that what's going on?

That's the only way I can explain it.

Yes, I mean, and I sent you that for a reason because I think that's the most

optimistic view.

If you're a Trump person, what he wrote is the most optimistic view.

But the more realistic view is he's going to throw us into a recession.

He's going to cause a huge problem.

There was two reports today, again, I'd like you to react to.

Number one was some of the Democrats are going to team up with the Republicans, or let me rephrase that.

Some of the Republicans are going to team up with the Democrats and stop this

declaration of emergency related to fentanyl to prevent the 25% omnibus tariffs that the president has the legal authority to do.

So I guess that first question would be, do you think that's going to happen?

And then the secondary question, because I know how Washington works, the people inside the Trump administration do not like Howard Luttnick, and they think Howard Luttnick is fanning the flames of Trump tariff-ism.

And do you think there will be any repercussions to Howard?

Because there's a lot of people leaking on him now.

So first question, will any Republicans break ranks and try to stop this insanity from happening?

I don't think so in a way that's going to stop the tariffs from happening.

I mean, look, this is going to be we're going to talk about the tariffs and the impact and what we see in the markets and any retaliation we see from other countries when we record on Thursday morning.

But I think the Republicans you you've already had one or two voices who said that they don't like tariffs.

There's mutterings that you have up to six senators who wouldn't like this to happen, would like to stop this from happening.

But if they haven't managed to change minds in the White House by now, when we're kind of literally up against deadline time, I would be surprised.

I know that Donald Trump is capable of making a decision until that decision is reversed by himself.

But I don't know that there are going to be, I haven't seen enough of a ground swell.

My understanding on the Republican side is that anything less than eight or nine Republicans speaking out is too much of a risk for those individual Republicans.

to stick their neck outs in a way that has impact.

On Howard Luttnick, I've heard the same thing, thing and it's been interesting to see how much leaking there is against him.

I love the fact that Susie Wiles, the chief of staff, came in and said, right, there will be no leaking in this administration.

And it's like kind of, you know,

circulation.

Is she the one leaking it though?

Because it plays Shakespeare, right?

Yeah.

Doubt thus protest about it.

There'll be no leaking.

Whoever smelled it, dealt it.

Excuse me.

Yeah, quickly call up to the New York Times.

So the argument is that there are people within the administration.

I mean, look, you've got plenty of people within this administration who are big believers in tariffs.

Peter Navarro is a big believer in tariffs.

Scott Besent, the Treasury Secretary, seems to be okay to a certain degree with tariffs.

Howard Lutnick

seems to be the main

champion at the moment.

And maybe he's just enjoying being the person in the Oval Office who out-trumps everybody else.

I mean, I think there is this, I have this image of everybody in the cabinet at the moment trying to be mini-me.

Like the Signal Chat.

Signal chat was an example of that.

Signal chat was exactly, wasn't it exactly not an example of that i i know we probably have to go but could i tell you a quick funny story we have not taken any questions yet we'll have to go to some more but i got to tell this story quickly i promise it's only 30 seconds so i'm in the white house and caddy i know this happened on a tuesday because i was only there for one tuesday so it was a tuesday and there was an aide to the president that said to me hey listen

There's an email coming in from XYZ.

Could you go to my Apple computer on my desk and respond to the email for me?

And I said, okay, fine, I'm happy to do that.

When I got to the desk, okay,

it was tied to the person's cell phone.

And there was one text after another coming in.

I know who you're talking about.

Okay.

It was one text after another coming in from different reporters.

And this was the person that was complaining about all the leaking in the White House.

And I was like, oh my God, this is the biggest leaker in the White House.

I was literally at, I was literally underneath the sink watching the water pour from underneath the sink.

And

for some reason, and I'm not going to mention the gender because people be able to pick it up, the person didn't realize that I was watching.

Can I just say, okay, so can I be on the record on this?

Is this off the record?

Is this on the record?

I'm like, oh, I'm probably not supposed to be watching this.

You know what I mean?

But just a lesson to everybody, because you're our founding members.

You know, we love you to death.

Don't link the cell phone to the hard computer if you're trying to hide shit.

I just point that out to people.

And maybe also

include Jones.

Okay, listen, let's take a second.

I love this one.

We're going to give ourselves a compliment.

Not that we haven't given ourselves enough compliments already.

Sandra Spencer Gibbs has written in, saying, bravo for multitasking, masculine and feminine.

You're talking to one another, looking at screens and our comments, which are whizzing up and making pertinent comments with your back knowledge.

Sandra, we love you.

Thank you.

Thank you, Sandra.

But I don't know.

So, one, I was in Wall Street too.

I think somebody's asking that.

That was a lot of fun for me.

And I met with Mickey Downs, who's the writer for industry.

So I've got my script, ladies and gentlemen.

So I'll be practicing all weekend,

my lines for industry.

And then there was another question here I wanted to answer.

I thought was a really cool question.

Okay, here it is.

Is anyone terrified for U.S.

national security between U.S.

Cyber Command ceasing offensive operations against Russia and the group chat.

This is from Rachel Haymaker.

Katie, I think it's such a good question because, Rachel, I'll just let you know, I'm terrified.

Okay, there are former cabinet officials that I talk to all the time,

you know, in the Secretary of Defense category, terrifying.

Oh, and by the way, having your wife in sensitive Secretary of Defense meetings, as Pete Hegseth has done a couple of times.

I don't know why his wife, nobody, no Secretary of National Security brings their spouse

into a sensitive meeting with a foreign counterpart when that spouse doesn't necessarily have top clearance.

I mean,

the level of the things that are being done from the national security, oh, we were talking about medicine in terms of cuts to research and development, but look, it's AI too.

I mean, the next big push is going to be in AI.

So far, why does everybody point to the United States and say, look, where are the big AI companies?

They have come out of America.

We know now there's one also come out of China, it looks like too.

But it's because of the kind of thing that we've been talking about, the amount of research money and dollars that has gone into keeping America ahead of the game.

I mean, that's equally relevant for

national security.

I mean, I would argue that healthcare is a national security issue, but it's equally relevant for healthcare and national security.

Okay, here is another one

that I really wanted about the fact somebody was asking about how there will be,

will this anti-science, here we go, Loxer 2004, will this anti-science, anti-US university college approach ultimately drive scientists abroad?

I don't know, honestly, Loxer 2004, if that's your real name, that it's going to do it in huge numbers, but we are starting to see some of that.

brain drain.

We're starting to see Oxford and Cambridge and the UK

appeal.

Now, one, I actually was having a conversation, you know, my daughter is a PhD scientist and she was working on a malaria research project that was cut because of funding cuts,

which now maybe you'd argue that malaria is never going to come to the United States.

Maybe that's what Elon Musk thinks.

So you don't need any malaria research for America, but it's probably a good idea for America to be monitoring malaria outbreaks in West and East Africa as she was doing.

And I asked her whether she thought she was now tempted to move to Europe.

She actually is going to start looking at jobs.

She's always lived in the States, went to the top universities here, has benefited enormously from America.

She was a National Science Foundation fellow, benefited enormously from American scientific research.

But she says that if there isn't money to do the kinds of research she wants here and somebody else offers her that kind of research, then she's a research scientist.

That's what she wants to do.

So I think, will you see it in huge numbers?

Not necessarily.

Will people who can move and get offers, as we've already seen this week, move abroad?

Will students not come to the United States?

Because they're worried about getting picked up on the streets.

And American universities, again, benefit from the best

students that they can get.

I'm not making a comparison to Nazi.

I'm not making a comparison

to Nazi Germany.

I'm not making the comparison.

And I was told at the Jury Lane Theater, I can't use the word fascism in Europe.

And Dominic Sambrock doesn't think Trump is a fascist.

But

I just want to point out

that they did something similar.

And that's how Albert Einstein showed up in the United States.

Okay, so

the question is: which Einstein is leaving the United States now because of the imbecility

or not coming

because of the imbecility of

this policy and this posse.

Here's a good,

I came across this study, a 2022 study.

Immigrants have accounted for, what is it, 36% of total innovation in the country since 1990, measured if you measure by patents, right?

36%, they only make up 20% of the population.

So they kind of punch way above their weight in terms of scientific research.

And America wants to keep attracting them.

I would have thought,

okay, are there any more?

So someone's asking a quick market question.

Why is the NASDAQ up with the tariffs?

Yeah, that's it.

I was going to ask you.

The NASDAQ has gotten blasted in the first quarter.

This is like the second trading day of the second quarter, if you will.

And so there is some small buyback going on right now.

And there is some expectation in the community that the tariffs on certain things may not be as bad as have been originally been reported.

And I just want to point out to people that are market participants here.

Trump has delayed the announcement of the tariffs tomorrow.

Remember, Trump didn't want to do it on April 1st because it was April Fool's Day, and he is a fool, but he didn't want to do it on April Fool's Day.

But he's delaying the tariff meeting now, the declaration of them, until 4 p.m.

And the reason he's doing that is that he wants the markets closed while he's making these announcements because I'm sure several of these announcements, Caddy, are going to hit the markets pretty hard in the after trade.

Yeah, so what do you, I mean, we'll we'll record afterwards, sensibly.

What what's yours, what's your kind of speculation 4 p.m.

tomorrow?

So I think some of these tariffs are going to stick and they're going to be harsh.

Some of the China ones,

I think they're negotiating and they've been negotiating around the clock with Canada.

Again, I think the person that's handled Donald Trump the best of the Western leaders is Prime Minister Carney.

And I think he realizes that he needs Canada more than he really.

I think he's looking at Carney and saying, okay, that guy's not blinking and he's going to put a lot of pain in the U.S.

economy.

You know what I said yesterday in London, Getty?

Don't fight with people that live in cold weather.

Okay, because when you fight with people in cold weather, they get really pissed off.

Okay, you can't beat the Russians in the winter in Stalingrad.

And you can ask Napoleon about going to Moscow in the winter.

Not a good idea.

Do not fight with people in cold weather.

I think Trump is going to be surprising on some of the Canadian tariffs.

And it's interesting.

Israel did something today that I thought was interesting.

They have eliminated all tariffs on U.S.

goods coming into Israel

because Trump did say that.

You eliminate your tariffs, I will eliminate my tariffs.

So I think some of that is probably going to happen during the day tomorrow.

Some gentleman here, I think it was a gentleman saying buy the dip.

I do think that that's right long term.

I do think that

you're going to see people,

I think you're going to see a softening of policy.

I do think that that will happen.

I don't think these things are going to stick.

And there are car dealers in the U.S., German car car dealers, British car dealers, Rolls-Royce, Assen Martin.

They're leaving the car off the shore or at the port before the duty gets charged, hoping that the duty will be reduced in the ensuing weeks slash months.

And it's also possible that if there are some exceptions, even though the White House is saying there won't be exceptions and the tariffs are coming into play immediately, if it's a, they've set the bar so high, I think, for a show of toughness.

And I think that Trump wants and feels he needs to have a show of toughness on this.

But if there are some exemptions, you could see the markets be less freaked out than they have been.

I have to read this one from Peter Korochan.

Anthony, how are you so fresh and energetic back home after the fantastic rest is assassinations event in London only 48 hours ago?

You always do this.

You have this ability to fly around the world

and come back and look like a woman.

It gives my wife crazy.

Well, first of all, I am Peter.

I'm going to totally embarrass myself here.

And the founding members may be.

You guys are like my family.

It opened up to you.

I've got some self-tanner on, Peter.

I just want people to know that.

Me too.

All right.

Me too.

Okay.

Right in the middle of it.

You want to have a bit of a makeup.

Just do me a favor, Peter.

Don't tell Dominic Sandbrook that I use self-tanner, okay?

Because I think it would upset him.

This new relationship that I have with Dominic, I think he'd be very upset to know that I have some self-tanner on.

But I do appreciate it.

But I also did Matt Ford's show last night in London, which I had a great time with him.

I mean, what a great.

When did you fly back?

Like, straight up?

I flew back.

I took the 825 BA flight this morning,

landed at 11 and took a shower, and here I am.

But, Caddy, before we go, Donald Trump, three terms?

Is he going to have three terms?

We're going to talk about that as well tomorrow.

I mean, look, I have two thoughts on this.

One is that

he knows every time, and this is Donald Trump on an interview with NBC over the weekend, who said that he was looking at methods by which he could possibly run for a third term.

And no, he isn't joking.

But he

part of the reason Trump raises this is to, it's a sort of distraction thing.

Every time he talks about it, people don't talk about the other things that are happening.

He knows that it riles up.

the mainstream media and liberals, so he loves doing that.

Any opportunity he can to do that he enjoys

but there is something a little bit more serious I was speaking to a democratic strategist who has always dismissed this idea

but thinks that he is planting this and this I and the method that he spoke about or that he said was one of the methods he was looking at was that actually J.D.

Vance would run be elected president and then hand over to Donald Trump and Donald Trump would be his vice president but then they would flip sweet flip seats.

I don't know if

J.D.

Vance is in on this scheme or not and would be happy with that scheme.

I keep coming back to the idea that he will be 82 by the time this term ends.

82-year-olds are vulnerable to health events.

They start slowing down.

Is he really going to, if it were not for his age, if he was 10 years younger, I would be taking this more seriously than I am at the moment, but I still think it's, don't rule it out.

Don't rule it out.

I know what you think.

I know you think this is a possibility, and you've always thought it was a possibility.

I think,

you know, listen, I mean,

36%

approval rating on how Donald Trump is handling trade policy.

Yeah.

There was a vote.

There's a poll this morning.

So keep it up.

Let's see if you can keep it up like this.

And look, Helen Mann has just commented.

I think this is good.

Katie, all your comments touch on the issue of today's China-Japan-South Korea Accord.

When you get Japan going into an accord with China, you realize things are a little off and not what you might be expecting.

And that is the danger of unpredictable policy.

You force your allies to make decisions that they wouldn't make.

India and Canada have had no envoys.

I don't know, it's gone on for at least a year.

They've been fighting.

They said, whoa, the Americans are nuts.

Let's team up again.

And they've now got the door open diplomatically to both sides.

Watch the Chinese are trying to make

as much hay out of this as they can in Europe, understandably.

If you haven't got an ally in America, you're going to start looking somewhere else, and you'll get strange bedfellows coming into alliances because of this.

Okay, we're going to leave it there.

Thank you very much, everybody.

Thanks for all the questions and comments.

We love them.

Thanks again for being founding members.

If you want one of your friends to join up, you know where it is.

The rest is politics.

Well, before we go, it is April Fool's Day, and Caddy is stuck with me.

She's not getting another host.

host.

I know the wise guys at Goalhanger put out that tweet.

It was upsetting to me.

Even I was upset.

I thought, well, wait a minute, it's April Fool's.

So too bad, Caddy.

You're stuck with me.

And you're April.

So are our founding members.

Sorry.

I love the idea that this was just one hour a week.

Yeah, well, I know it's like 50 hours a week, but I'm just telling you, I'm not going anywhere.

You guys are stuck with me.

Thank you guys for being here.

Okay, thanks, guys.

We'll see you later in the week, and next week we'll be back as well with another live stream.

But we will see you for our regular podcast on Friday.

Thanks, everyone.

Thank you.