456. Antisemitism, How the Tories Lost Britain, and Gaza

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The attack on the synagogue in Manchester, which has really brought the focus on anti-Semitism in Britain, which we don't talk about enough.

We have had some response that, you know, we've been far too critical of Israel and that has fanned the flames of anti-Semitism.

I think you have to be able to differentiate between the two.

The Palestinians were not involved in negotiating this plan, so it would be like a Ukraine peace deal negotiated between Trump and Putin.

This was negotiated between Trump and Netanyahu.

Even if the fighting were to stop now, peace is not just about stopping wars.

Peace is then about what follows and how do you build a durable peace.

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Welcome to the Rest of Apologies.

I'm Yanis de Campbell.

I'm me, Roy Schuart.

And Rory, it's October the 7th, which is one of those dates that is going to go down in history along with September the 11th.

And so we'll talk about that two years on.

We'll also talk about the terrorist attack in Manchester and the protests that are ongoing on Palestine action and the way that the government is handling those.

I think in the second half, we should talk about your old party.

They're having a very successful conference so far.

I'm sure you're really sorry you're not there, aren't you?

It's very, very sad.

Yeah, I'd not been invited, but I should probably have gone to the next.

I think I've been in the turned you away for a fringe meeting.

That's how we got it all wrong with Rory Stewart.

Right, exactly.

So, where do you want to start?

Well, let's start with the attack on the synagogue in Manchester, in which a British Syrian attacker killed a worshipper.

A second worshiper was then killed, it seems, in the attempts of the police to provide security, and which has really brought the focus on anti-Semitism in Britain, which we don't talk about enough.

I thought the most powerful thing that I've seen recently on this was, in fact, from Robert Peston on our sister show, The Rest is Money,

where Robert makes the point that we can be very, very angry with what Russia is doing in Ukraine, but it doesn't manifest itself with people attacking and killing Russians in Britain.

And that I feel,

and there are many complicated reasons for this, but I think that anti-Semitism is very real.

and that Jews and Muslims are almost unique.

I mean, listeners may challenge me, but almost unique in finding themselves victims, targeted, and associated with what's done by other people.

So in the case of Jews, and there was a Matthew Said article about trying to walk around Trafalgar Square talking to protesters, it is the sense that Jews in general are being made to bear the full burden of what Netanyahu is doing in Gaza.

And with Muslims, it's the sense that they're being

made to bear the full burden of atrocities committed by the Taliban or terrorist attacks are being directed to Muslims in general.

Just a final thing from me, which is that

thinking about responding to that attack, I had to be

clear with myself about asking myself again and again,

would I respond to this attack in the way that I would respond to an attack on a mosque?

So if there was an attack on a mosque in Britain, I would be straight out there.

Which there was two days ago.

Right.

Saying, this is is completely horrific.

This is disgusting.

And that is, of course, the correct response to the attack on the synagogue.

And we have to challenge ourselves again and again and again, particularly someone like me who is so angry and disgusted with what Netanyahu's government is doing in Gaza and feels that so strongly, to keep that line so, so clear and keep the

empathy for the Jewish community, love for the Jewish community,

decency towards the Jewish community, respect towards it, protection in exactly the same way as we would for any community, but particularly for the Jewish community at this moment.

Yeah, because I think the history well, the history of anti-Semitism goes back a long, long, long, long way, but in terms of the rest is politics, of course it sort of came to a head during Jeremy Corbyn's leadership of the Labour Party and the sense that anti-Semitism was real and it wasn't being properly addressed by the leadership of one of the two main parties, which is now the party of government.

And it's interesting you said about how you reacted, because as soon as it happened, and I agree with you, by the way, I thought Robert's commentary at the start of his podcast was really quite moving, because Robert is Jewish.

He is somebody who, on his,

as an independent, independent television journalist, doesn't sort of express his own views, but you don't have to watch him very often to know that he's pretty condemnatory of the a lot of the actions of the Israeli government.

government and does make that observation about around the world, I think there is some anti-Russian feeling because of Ukraine, but if you bump into a Russian person, you don't automatically assume they are pro-Putin.

In fact, if they're outside Russia, you think, well, maybe they're left because they're anti-Putin.

And you may not automatically talk to them about it.

I mean, I think one of the things that my Jewish friends probably experience is that just because they're Jewish, everybody wants to incessantly talk to them about Gaza in a way that if you're Russian, people are not incessant.

And again, if you're a Muslim, it would be a bit strange if people were incessantly trying to talk to you about the Taliban.

Yeah, and the other thing I'd say is that you and I both had a lot of criticism, particularly not immediately after the October 7th

massacre.

But because we have become so trenchant, I basically said, I think what Nenya is doing is genocide.

You're not far from that position as well.

And so we have had some response that, you know, we've been far too critical of Israel, and that has fanned the flames of anti-Semitism, which I think is unfair, because I think you have to be able to differentiate between the two.

You know, Fiona and I've got a lot of Jewish friends,

and we've got one

who is actually

does feel that sense that if you're attacking Israel, you're attacking Jews.

Most of our Jewish friends are absolutely appalled by what the Israeli government has done, particularly in the last 12 months, just when they've taken the campaign in Gaza to a completely different level.

And at the same time, do want a sense of assurance from all of us that we understand their pain as Jews in relation to October the 7th and in relation to anti-Semitism and now in relation to

the extent to which Israel is so divided.

That's something that the Jews I know say it all the time.

You have got no idea what it's like when your country has become so divided divided and there's so much hate.

So right at the heart of this question is the relationship between being anti-Semitic and being fiercely critical of the horrible actions the government of Israel.

And how can you divide those two?

And I think it's really conflated.

And actually, there are people in the Israeli government who clearly weaponize the slogan of anti-Semitism to undermine critics.

You know, they used it against the Labour government when they tried to sanction Ben-Govira Smotric.

They used it against the Labour government when they tried to recognize the state of Palestine.

And the Israeli government have weaponized this allegation of anti-Semitism again and again in a very unjust way and have used it against people who are not anti-Semitic.

I think the litmus test is exactly the one that pests and produces in the rest of money, which is ask yourself again and again, if I'm talking to somebody from Congo, am I holding them responsible for the horrors in Congo?

If I'm talking to a Russian, does it make any sense for me to judge them, have prejudice against them, feel bad feelings towards them because of what Putin's doing in Ukraine?

No, I agree with that.

And Robert's clip from the rest is money, I thought it was really interesting and quite moving, actually.

And the other thing I found repulsive about the response, I mean, the action,

the act itself was off the scale, horrific.

There was some amazing courage.

And I'll tell you, some of the biggest courage I've seen has actually been, because when I heard a police officer had killed one of the two people he'd died, I thought, oh God, this is particularly as it came on the morning we'd had this report about the Metropolitan Police, which was awful in sexism, misogyny, racism, etc.

I thought, oh my God, this is going to become a really bad day for the police.

But actually was the extent to which I saw an interview yesterday with the ex-wife

of somebody who was in intent had been in intensive care, who'd been also shot by the police, who said she'd spoken spoke to him and he did not blame the police because they were doing their job trying to keep us safe.

And likewise, I've heard no criticism from the family of the guy who was killed by the police, which stands in great contrast to the

way that some people,

some of the shock jocks on our right-wing TV stations, some of the,

I'm afraid I put Nigel Farage into this camp in relation to the protests where he basically said these were celebrating the deaths in the synagogue.

These were protests that had already been planned.

But these people who came out straight away, like literally like that, this is on Gear Starma.

He has fueled this.

I think we got a little bit of that as well.

We did an interview with David Badil on Leading that if people haven't heard, it's maybe worth listening to because that is very, very focused on his experience of anti-Semitism, his book, Jews Don't Count.

He tries to draw a very, very clear line between anti-Semitism and Israel.

In fact, I think he says in the interview, I don't have a view on Israel.

I I don't have to have a view on Israel.

I'm just talking about anti-Semitism.

And a lot of our viewers and listeners criticise him for that, saying it's your responsibility, et cetera.

But I actually quite, you know, I totally understand what he's saying.

It's like somebody meets you abroad and, oh, you're British, therefore you must inevitably have a view about every single thing that I know about Britain.

Yep.

Now, as it happens, you and I probably do have views about most things, but most people don't.

Absolutely.

And I think there's a double thing also, which is he, I think, might also say, I have an identity as a British Jew, not particularly in any way as an Israeli Jew.

However, there are other people contacting me.

I just got a long, long series of WhatsApps, 14 this morning when I woke up from a friend from a Jewish family in Australia where this is a very, very live issue.

And he's incredibly angry with Albanese, and he feels that anti-Semitism in Australia is getting out of control.

Liberals are enabling it.

And his view, which again is another view that you'll hear a lot, is that he does not feel there is enough analysis and criticism of Hamas.

So, a lot of focus on what Israel is doing wrong, not enough talking about who Hamas are, their cruelty, the way they treat people, their terrorism,

their savagery, the treatment of women, their links to Iran.

I think what's something that a Jewish friend of mine said recently, who is not remotely pro-Netanyahu, in fact, is very, very angry with Netanyahu, but said it really shocked him how quickly

the actual events on the day of October 7th sort of receded from the public debate.

And I guess that's why these

marking these anniversaries is so important.

And also, again, I was remembering October the 7th and remembering that one of the things that totally threw many of my Jewish friends off balance was how they felt, at least in their memory of it, is that by kind of October the 8th, there were massive anti-Israel demonstrations happening.

And I think Kier Sam has also, I think, today called for people not to demonstrate.

What is going on?

Can't you give us a couple of days before this gets going?

Yeah, I mean, and

the only other point I make, though, is I think one of the...

I understand, and we've criticised the Israeli government for not allowing international media in,

but I think that has been another byproduct.

Because you're having most of the world's top international journalists reporting from Israel about what's happening inside Gaza, to which they have very, very limited access.

I think you probably would find there'd be more focus on Hamas if there was proper media access.

Couldn't agree more.

I was talking to somebody from the Israeli government about this and I said, well, why won't you let the journalists in?

And he said, well, you know, I'm worried that we're worried that if they went in, they would, to be honest, take the Hamas line.

I said, no, come on.

These are very experienced international correspondents.

They've operated in Afghanistan.

They've operated in Syria.

You cannot have anything worse than what you've currently got by not letting the journalists in, at least take the risk.

There will be some stories analysing what Hamas is doing.

Meanwhile, we're in a fake news environment.

So again,

a very interesting moment for me last night, which completely threw me off balance.

So

as we have explained on the show a couple of weeks ago, the UN process looking at famine in Israel is a very rigorous, objective process.

They followed exactly the same process they followed in South Sudan and Sudan and Somalia.

They looked at three indicators.

They measured the width of people's arms.

There was some issue around access to weighing machines.

But it was the same process exactly down in those other three places.

And they concluded there was a famine in a governorate in Gaza.

And that's about as objective as you get.

It's not journalists.

That's professional experts going in with literally take measures, producing the stuff.

And then last night somebody said to me, well, since the peace has happened, people have been in and apparently it's all a lie and lots of photographs of fat gardens.

And I said, well, where is this coming from?

You know, where did you read this?

At which point they got a bit sort of vague.

And presumably the answer is this stuff is going out on social media.

And part of the problem there is that the Israeli government is relentlessly, we now know, paying influencers, pushing out stories which are not true, which again doesn't help any kind of objective analysis.

On

Saturday, I was up in the Midlands for my Sins Rory doing another Labour Party fundraiser.

And

I was in a hotel and it was, it came on Sky News, whoosh, breaking news, Netanyahu to make a statement.

And I'm looking at my watch thinking, oh, we're going to be able to see it before I have to leave or what have you.

Anyway, it was a long wait because they said he was going to make the statement at six o'clock.

And it was, I think it was gone seven by the time.

And what had been happening, seemingly, is that Ben Gavir and Smotrich were going in saying, no, you cannot say that.

No, you cannot say that.

So, he ended up not saying very much.

This was about the Gaza 20-point plan, which we'll talk about.

But, meanwhile, this guy, Adam Parsons, who's Sky Middle East correspondent, he was in Jerusalem, endless two-way,

as they were, you know, we're still waiting for Betty Billeti.

So, they replayed a couple of times a report that Adam Parsons had done inside Gaza with the IDF.

And it was very interesting because

he made the point, they made the point, we are only allowed to see what they show us and we have to clear our reports with them okay so they made that point but just by showing the pictures he was able to paint a picture of absolute devastation and then

even though he's been covering it from the off say just how shocked he was to see the scale of that devastation And he said he was only allowed in there for quite a short period of time and he and he came out.

And that's when I thought, I actually do think if Israel had been much, much more open,

they'd have, I don't think they'd been quite the, you know, the state in international terms that they're in.

I was before the synagogue attack, when we were talking over the weekend about, you know, before the end of last week, what we're going to talk about next week, I'd read this piece in Foreign Affairs magazine.

analyzing Israel's relations with all the countries around the world, big and small.

And it's impossible really to point to a single relationship that has actually strengthened.

They've pretty much all weakened.

And so I just, I think there is something in this sort of,

you know,

just the complete shutdown and the sense of relentless propaganda.

The other thing I should say, which we should, you know,

by the way, shout out to our social media team.

I don't know if you've been watching some of the films they're doing, but ITN, it was last night or the day before, they did this.

John Irvine was reporting and they found some old footage of Gaza on October the 6th, two years ago.

And they showed this big, busy street, high-rise blocks, cars moving around, what have you.

And they've now got pictures of the same place today, and it is rubble.

Let's now do the transition to the peace plan.

So listeners will have heard us do what was almost a kind of emergency episode around the peace plan as it was announced in the 20-point plan.

At the time, we pointed out that there are unbelievable problems with this plan, and I suppose there are two major problems.

Number one is that Palestinians were not involved in negotiating this plan, so it would be like a Ukraine peace deal negotiated between Trump and Putin.

This was negotiated between Trump and Netanyahu.

And the second issue, which is that Netanyahu presents it as a total victory, a surrender for Hamas, everything achieved, and how difficult that would be for the other side to sign up to.

Since then, Hamas has very much come back with a yes-but.

And a lot of the Arab states have said also some version of, yes, this is almost our plan.

Some of the details got lost in what Trump and Netanyahu presented in the end, but broadly speaking, we want this.

So let's try to understand why that is.

And it's not, I think, if you talk to Palestinians or if you talk to...

Qataris or people from UAE that they think this is some sort of just peace deal.

It's that they have concluded that there are no options left.

That if you are in Gaza at the moment, all you want is to stop being killed.

The advance on Gaza City is beginning.

The power stations are being hit.

The high-rise buildings are coming down.

700,000 people have been displaced and are moving towards

very inadequate shelter.

There are children being born already with malnutrition at the moment of their birth.

67,000 people have been killed.

Just stop.

Enough already.

And the pressure now on Hamas from both the people of Gaza and from the Gulf states is you've lost.

There's nowhere to go now.

There's no point actually holding on to these hostages anymore.

The story was you were holding on to the hostages because by holding on to the hostages you had some leverage and maybe Israel wouldn't hit you that hard.

Give back the hostages.

There's no guarantee that Israel will withdraw.

There's no guarantee that they'll even release your prisoners.

But take the chance, there's a 10% chance, maybe that Trump will put pressure on Netanyahu to do what he says he's going to do.

And what have you really got to lose?

Because things can't actually get any worse.

And so it's a surrender.

I mean, I think Netanyahu's right.

He's saying total victory.

And of course, for people looking around the world, it is, of course, total victory.

and will be interpreted by many other countries around the world as total victory and vindication for Netanyahu's methods.

He will essentially be sending the message to the world, it doesn't matter that the International Criminal Court or the International Court of Justice or the UN or any of this stuff, we won.

It worked.

This is the way you do it.

No consequences, victory.

We're in a much stronger position towards Palestine than we were two years ago.

Yeah, and yet Donald Trump seems quite irritated with Nenya's response to the way this thing's gone.

Nenya is talking at the moment about implementing the first phase of this plan.

There was a report of a conversation in which Trump used the F-word and said,

why are you all so effing negative?

This is a win, take it.

We said when we did the pod,

we talked about this last week, this isn't really a plan.

It's a sort of wish list of all the things that, if they all happened, might really lead to the end of the war.

It's not really a peace plan.

It's a sort of let's just stop fighting plan.

And then, and Netanyahu is not really engaging with the stuff beyond the immediate, which is Hamas have to release the hostages.

And he said the one thing he did absolutely clearly say in this statement on Saturday night is the IDF is remaining in most of the strip.

So that goes against what we thought was being said.

Exactly.

The January March plans were basically hostages would be released.

And in return, Israel would withdraw its troops, ceasefire and withdraw.

This plan is hostages must be released.

And in the fullness of time, maybe no indicators.

And of course, as you say, Netanyahu is indicating that he won't.

You see, and I think what we've got here.

Again, this is something we reflected last week.

This is so complicated.

It's so fraught.

There are so many players.

There are so many factors.

People say Donald Trump can sort this out on his own.

He can't.

There are so many, he can set a framework.

And to be fair, he's done that.

I worry that what we're seeing here is a clash between his style of leadership, his style of negotiation, which is to slap something on the table and say, right, take it or else.

And then lots of people outside who don't really worry that much about the or else, including Netanyahu.

Netanyahu's not actually delivered what Trump thought he was.

And I honestly do think that the

pending date this Friday of the announcement of who wins the Nobel Peace Prize.

I mean, I hate to question the guy's motivations, but I do think that's a big part of this.

And he sort of woke up a few days ago and thought, if I'm going to get this peace prize, I've got to stop this fighting now.

and and he's really really gone for it and by the way I have to say well I don't have to say but I will say it even if the fighting were to stop now yeah I think it would be absurd

because peace in the end is about is peace is not just about stopping wars peace is then about what follows and how do you build a durable peace that's why you should get a peace prize

a ceasefire is not a peace do you think it would be more motivating for trump to remain engaged if he won the prize on Friday, or if they dangled the possibility that if he did a good job over the next 12 months, they might give him the prize next year?

Well, he's convinced himself that he's already stopped.

Sometimes it's four, sometimes it's seven, sometimes it's 11 wars.

So he thinks

he deserves it anyway, regardless.

And of course, the people of Albania and Cambodia are very grateful.

My friend Ira was sailing close to the wind.

I hope Trump didn't see that video of him with Macron and the leader from Azerbaijan saying, you know, Donald Trump,

he's stopped us fighting, and here we are.

Thank you for your supportive role, Emmanuel.

No,

yesterday, we're recording this on Tuesday.

Yesterday,

the group representing the hostages and the families, they wrote to the Nobel Peace Prize Committee and said, please give it to him.

But just presumably.

But so he stays engaged.

Let me push you one more time for the break.

Do you think he would be more engaged by the holding out the carrot that they might give it to him in a year or two?

I think he does here and now.

I asked for it this year.

I want it this year.

And you don't think the risk is that if he gets it it this year, he's saying, Oh, well, I've got that now and can now focus on my golf game.

Yeah, 100%.

100%.

So, what's the point of getting that?

And also, somebody's.

So, at least take the risk that he might stay engaged for it next year.

Give me a second.

Well, Sony was also making the point that one of the points in this 20-point plan is that he, with Tony Blair alongside him, chairs this board of peace.

Absolutely.

He'll be thinking about it all the time.

So, they're going to have to build a golf course in the new Gaza.

We should briefly, before the break, just reflect on these Palestine action protests.

So, the government legislated to make or they prescribed Palestine action as a terrorist organization.

You and I both suggested at the time we didn't think that was properly thought through and we haven't really been given clarity of reasoning.

As a result of which it is a criminal offence to hold up a sign saying I oppose, I support Palestine action, stop genocide.

And thus far we're into the thousands now of people who've been arrested at these protests for

Palestine action.

So the government, new Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, now saying that she may legislate, bring forward an amendment to a bill going through Parliament now to give police more powers and her more powers to stop repeat protests.

So what do you think of that?

I think it's a hiding to nothing and I think it's a dangerous route for the government to go down.

We began talking about anti-Semitism.

I think anti-Semitism is real and that synagogue attack should make us all focus on the fact there's a very nasty undercurrent of anti-Semitism in Britain and a very nasty undercurrent of extreme Islamophobia in Britain and right the way across Europe.

And the government has a real duty to work out what we do to deal with anti-Semitism in this country and reduce it.

But this going after the Palestine action protests is mad.

You end up arresting thousands of pensioners.

And just to be brutal, as somebody who used to be a prisons minister,

our prisons are full to bursting.

We need those prison places.

They're violent.

They're out of control.

And we need them for murderers, burglars, violent criminals.

We do not need them for elderly professors, even if they are poorly informed about Hamas.

I also know, I mean, I spoke to somebody who was at one of these protesters who said that the police were basically saying to them that, you know, as long as you don't keep coming back, there's no chance of you going to jail.

So,

no, I think this is one of those instances where you've got to be very, very careful about the long-term consequences.

And

usually legislating to respond to something in the moment is you should be a little bit wary because the other thing i heard somebody pointing out that some of those people who are supporting the idea of greater powers to stop protest

are also the people who think they should be allowed to stand outside abortion clinics and

stop people you know and would be angry people would be angry very angry if the police arrested them or to stand outside asylum hotels.

Yep.

And, you know, so you've got to be very, very careful about how you handle it.

And I do think it's one of those where it might be a case for just sort of

stepping back a bit.

And the other thing is, I mean, I feel, you know, when that Tommy Robinson march was on recently, people,

one of the ministers I heard on the radio said, you know, when people feel very, very uncomfortable, well, I felt very uncomfortable.

Sure.

You know, I don't want to be surrounded by Tommy Robinson and his mates.

But I still think you have to defend the right to protest.

Small ray of light.

Many people will be aware that an Israeli minister issued an invitation for Tommy Robinson to visit Israel.

So Tommy Robinson, convicted criminal, football hooligan, very much the far right, well beyond Nigel Farage, extremely dangerous character associated with basically fascist movements, now been invited as almost a state guest by the Israeli government.

But the ray of light is that the Board of Deputies, British Jews,

who've been criticized in the past for expelling members who referred to what was happening in Gaza's genocide, have actually come up very strongly saying to this Israeli minister, you do not speak for us.

Tommy Robinson is a very dangerous character.

You should not be doing this.

Don't go down this line.

I think the ray of light would be brighter if the Israeli government said that.

This guy is the Minister for the Diaspora.

He described Robinson, Yaxli Lenin, in glowing terms, almost like a freedom fighter.

And I think to do that at this stage, when things are so sensitive and when this negotiation is going on is absolutely

it's completely mad.

And I don't know where it came from.

And I don't know whether it's influenced, for example, Bain or Musk.

I mean, because Musk, of course, is a great supporter of Tommy Robinson and campaigning from all around the world.

Did he ring up the minister and put pressure on him to do this, to try to promote and legitimise?

It was surely if you're...

I mean, look, the Israeli government is not happy with the UK government at the moment because of the recognition of Palestine.

But I don't think it would do Netanyahu any harm, actually, to call this guy and say, excuse me, do you know what you're dealing with here?

Yeah.

Just drop it.

Yeah.

And I think it's a good idea.

And I should be very useful.

It's very useful to make a statement of that sort.

Exactly.

Okay.

Time for a break.

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Welcome back to the Restless Politics with me, Rory Stewart.

And me, Alistair Campbell.

So today, Tuesday, the man of the moment, Robert Jenrick, he is the big rising star of the Conservative Party.

Kemi Badenock was on the Today programme this morning.

I made a point of listening.

I find her manner quite difficult to deal with, but I've got to say, she was, I suspect she was really annoyed because the first part, fairly sizable chunk of the interview, was taken up with questions about something Robert Jenrick said,

where he claimed that he spent an hour and a half in Handsworth in Birmingham and didn't see another white face.

Andy Street has been saying this is almost certainly complete nonsense.

Anyway, she had to deal with that.

And it is remarkable how Robert Jenrick, who

I

there's a great, very, very negative profile of him in the New World last week.

And when he won his by-election, I think it was, he was described as reassuringly dull.

And boy, is he trying to make himself interesting.

Here's, let me just kick off with this, Rory.

I'm going to test your history of the Conservative Party now.

Of the last 151 years, how many of those of the Conservatives have been in power?

I'd say the overwhelming majority.

So let's say 105.

Oh, no, not bad.

98.

In the early 1950s,

how many members did they have?

In the House of Commons?

No, members of the party.

Oh, in the country, 2 million.

2.8 million.

In the 80s, they had 1.8 billion.

At the leadership election between Ms.

Badnock and Jenrick, it was 53,000 against 41,000.

So they were down to 100,000 people voting.

That's incredible.

So when my mother was a member of the Conservative Party, as a young girl in Wimbledon in the 40s, they had enough Conservative Party members, and you just remind remind us they had almost three million, where every street had a representative leafleting was incredibly easy

because there was someone on every street to do the leaflets.

By the time I was campaigning as a Conservative MP, basically there were half a dozen, a dozen at most people in the constituency, mostly councillors, mostly older, who'd come out with you.

You were really struggling to get those leaflets out.

Let's step back for a moment though and look at the hole that the Conservatives are in.

To remind people, the Conservatives, as you say, been the big dominant party of government over the last 200 years.

David Cameron won most seats and formed a coalition government in 2010.

He won an overall majority in 2015.

Theresa May again puts together a minority government 2017.

And 2019, Boris Johnson wins a pretty stonking majority.

He's getting well over 40% of the vote.

Fast forward to 2024, which we obviously were right in the middle of and covered together, the Tories dropped down to the low 20s.

Now they have lost a further 40% of their vote in a year, almost all of it to reform.

So they're probably down now at, let's say, 13, 14% of the vote.

How that 40% has gone and how low it's gone varies from poll to pole.

So they've now got a real question, right?

And there are two totally different narratives, what I want to call the sort of David Gork narrative.

I spoke to my friend here at David Gawk, former Lord Chancellor, who, like me, was thrown out of the Conservative Party by Boris Johnson.

He wrote a very good piece in The Times, debunking this nonsense about the European Convention on Human Rights.

It will make very little difference to the immigration debates.

Strongly recommended.

Good piece looking at this complete nonsense that people are, the ECHR is about stopping people from eating chicken nuggets.

They don't want to eat.

And then on the other side is the analysis produced by my friend James Johnson, who's a pollster.

worked with me on various campaigns and was Truth's Mate's pollster.

So here are the two narratives.

David Gawk.

The problem with the Conservatives is they're completely obsessed with trying to redo Boris Johnson 2019.

Boris Johnson 2019 was a completely strange event where traditional labour working class voters from the Red Wall, for the first time in their lives and the last time, voted Conservative because they wanted to get Brexit done.

And David would argue those voters have gone.

They're never coming back.

They were always basically non-Tory voters.

They were betrayed by Boris.

They're enraged by what they see as a wave of immigration, by austerity, poor public service.

Some of them have stayed on the right, though, and gone to reform.

Some of them have gone to reform, but David would say that they ain't ever coming back to the Tories.

Instead, he says, and of course, this is music to my ears, let's rebuild the Cameron voters of 2015, 2017, even under Theresa May.

Let's find people who are now voting, Lib Dem, Green, or even Labour, middle-class business people, wealth creators who will begin to feel the Labour government isn't delivering growth, their taxes are going to go up, who believe in the markets, a bit suspicious of statism, but don't want crazy cultural wars, voted remain, don't want to get involved in fights about the ECHR, just want a sensible, serious, competent government with a little bit of flair from time to time.

Well, I hate to deliver the bad news to you, Rory, but

that side is not winning the argument inside the Conservative Party.

Because not only have they come out and said

a Conservative government would withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights without any real explanation.

And that poor guy, David Wilson, who's clearly quite a serious lawyer, they ask him to produce a report, which, when you actually read the report, doesn't substantiate really the reasons that they're giving for coming out.

It's sort of on balance here and there.

So they've really had to kind of cherry-pick what he's saying.

They've also said that they're going to reverse the

Climate Change Act, which was supported by both Theresa May's government and the Labour government.

Yeah, and that act was passed by a Conservative government.

I mean, Labour may have voted for it, but it was a piece of government legislation from Theresa May's government.

And this, by the way, on the day you were saying a ray of light at the end of part one, a ray of light on this today

is this report showing that for the first time,

renewables have overtaken coal as the main producer of electricity, driven mainly by China and India and Pakistan, with America and Europe slightly falling behind.

And then we've got,

and I'll be fascinated.

We're talking later today, the leading to Lady Hale, famous judge.

I'll be fascinated to hear what she thinks about Robert Jennerick's latest intervention, which is coming later today, which is basically we're going to have politicians appoint the judges.

Now, this is so dragging them forward.

This profile I mentioned in the New World is this great line about Jenneric.

Devoid of any innate beliefs, Jenerick has slid further and further to the right as his environment demanded it.

Now his party follows because no one else can be bothered to guide it.

And can I I just make this final point, Rue, because you mentioned David Gore there.

The two absolute wreckers of your party, I think, have to go down in history as Johnson and Truss.

Truss, because she so damaged the Tories' record in the economy, and that has not gone away.

That still comes out.

I'm sure your friend James Johnson says in focus groups, that still comes out as Liz Truss wrecked the economy, and this lot put her in power.

Okay.

But the second one is Boris Johnson.

Because if you watch this conference, I watched on Channel 4 News last night Gary Gibbon interviewing the queue going into a Robert Jenrick, a Robert Jenrick fridge meeting.

And he said to this woman, is he the Messiah or is he a naughty boy?

And this woman,

he's the Messiah.

And I thought, this party has completely lost its marbles.

But what Johnson did was throw out.

People like you, people like David Gork, people like Nick Soames, people like Anna Subry, people like Dominic Greed, people like Ken Clark.

These are serious people who would be able to fight and win some of these arguments.

Kemi Badenock has totally caved in to generate.

So you're completely right.

I'll get back to James Johnson's analysis just in a second, but there's a big structural problem that I was talking about to David Gork yesterday.

So I was saying, well, David, you know, what would it take for people like you and me to start rebuilding a party that felt more like Cameron 2010, right, 2015?

And what I pointed out is that one of the problems is they've created these limitless tests, these loyalty tests.

So the reason that David and I couldn't run for the Conservatives in 2019 is that Dominic Currings and Boris Johnson made it a requirement to run that you had to back Boris's version of a Brexit.

And they're now making it a requirement to say you have to come out of the UCLA.

Exactly.

Nuts.

So the first thing, 2019, gets rid of 21 of us.

and actually quite a lot more who decide not to run.

So the Conservative Party goes quite dramatically, you can see it, from being predominantly Remain supporting to predominantly Brexit supporting.

So you end up with a much more right-wing parliamentary party.

And now she ratches it up once again, because even within the group of people who were prepared to hold their noses, get behind a Boris Hart-Brexit deal, which would be, you know, Tom Tugenhart, Mel Stride, these sort of people.

She's now ratcheted up again.

And now the second requirement is: okay, you've got to support leaving the European Convention on Human Rights if you want to run as a candidate, which will mean that after the next election, the people left in the parliamentary party have been selected to be far more right-wing than they were in 2017.

And then the problem is, how on earth are people like me or David Gork or Ken Clark or whoever to make an argument for that old centre-right party if they've put these loyalty tests in place?

Yeah, the fundraiser I mentioned that I was doing was actually in my nephew's constituency in Rushcliffe, which is Ken Clark's whole seat.

And it was really interesting because I just assumed Midlands, there were flags everywhere and all that stuff was going on.

But actually, Labour there were pretty confident because there's quite a sizable professional middle class there, but also because there are still a lot of Conservatives out there who really don't want the reform leadership of this country.

And what they're seeing with Jenrick in particular, but with Kemmy Bade not now being dragged along behind him, is them fighting.

absolutely in the same space.

So therefore, where are they going to go?

They're probably

a lot of them, provided, you know, Jamie sort of does a good job as as a local MP will go to him.

Some will go to the Lib Dems.

Some might go to the Greens.

I don't know.

But I think we've bought into this idea, listen, don't get me wrong, reform are doing very well in the polls.

And there are some MPs that I talk to who say, you know,

I don't know if I can say who it was, was a Tory MP.

It's always very hard.

But anyway, I heard that this Tory MP, who's got a fairly reasonably decent majority, has told her local party she's toast, she's finished, because reform are just going to wipe her out.

In the end, people are going to vote.

It's the old thing.

You vote for the real thing rather than the fake.

And one of the most bizarre moments of this conference was this speech by Matthew Syed, very well-known writer, journalist at the time.

Olympics.

Don't say ping-pong.

It's table tennis.

He actually said in the speech, do not call it ping-pong.

And certainly don't call it wiff-waff.

But honestly, it was a very, very bizarre speech.

Because he was basically saying, this is the time to join the Conservatives because the country has moved so so far to the left and he recalled how he stood for us he stood as a candidate against john redwood i think in 2001 for labour

um i mean intellectually the speech didn't hang together at all but his big argument towards the end was that you know the the country's got deep-seated problems reform essentially is a socialist party it's a it's talking about state intervention it's talking about you know and i guess what he means by that is populism is just spraying around promises whereas so he says the only party that can be fiscally responsible is

the Tories.

It was a very, very weird speech.

Just to come back then to why then, given all that you've said, are they heading into reform territory?

And that's when we get to the James Johnson analysis.

So

James Johnson, JJ, would say, well, their biggest problem is that they've lost 40% of their vote since 2024 in a year.

And almost all those voters have gone to reform.

And he would say, before you even start fantasizing about a future, you've got to get back to at least where you were in 2024, where they were reduced to just over 100 seats.

They're now on track to have something like 40 seats in the House of Commons.

And the only way to get those guys back is to go after the issues that reform voters care about, in particular immigration.

Now, let me develop this further.

He would also say, listen, Rory, it's all very well, you know, your fantasy of a kind of Rory Stewart conservatism, which of course would have space for the kind of Matthew Seitz.

If what Matthew Seitz is saying is actually the space for a fiscally conservative government that says, you know, we think actually tax is getting too high, the state's got too big, we want to be pro-business, pro-market.

Fine.

But he would say, listen, Rory, your 2015, 2017 voters, they're lost.

They haven't voted conservative for almost 10 years now.

They've dug into their new positions with the Liberals, some of them even with the Greens, some with Labour.

They are so angry with Boris Johnson, with Liz Truss.

They're so disgusted by this kind of flirting with the far right.

You're never going to get them back.

The The FT did a piece of the weekend headline, Flirting with Oblivion, and it said the age at which a voter was more likely to support the Conservatives over Labour at the last election was 63.

So if you look in polls, whereas in 2019 it was 39.

So that's the final thing, which is the real sort of council of total despair, which you get from the realists and Conservative Party headquarters, which is like totally...

you know, forget the question of whether the Conservative Party should be a David Galt, Rory Stewart Party, or a Robert Generic Party.

All of that's irrelevant.

All we've got to do is cling on to our increasingly aged pensioner base that doesn't really like any of the things we're doing, but just feels some sort of intrinsic loyalty towards the Conservative Party and can't really see themselves ever moving to reform Labour.

And this gives us a sort of steady 16, 17% of the vote, which we can cling on to for the

rest of the world, provided we don't touch the triple-lock pension.

Which young people might actually think was a good thing to do.

I thought that

it was a bit sad seeing the pictures of poor old Mel Stride, who's the big draw on the Monday, Shadow Chancellor.

Some of the angles that looked like there were more empty seats than the seats with buttons on them.

And you're right, traditionally a Shadow Chancellor's speech

would be packed.

The one point I'll say that I thought Matthew Syed made, which I really do agree with, he said, and he was clearly enjoying, I think he got a standing evasion from this tiny crowd, but he was clearly enjoying being a bit of a man of the moment.

But the one point point I think he made that they really should listen to, he said,

when you've suffered the sort of defeat they did, there has to be a little bit of apology and penitence.

And the way they talk, the way Jenrick talks about immigration, I mean, yes, he occasionally admits, we tried and we failed, but I've now got the ideas.

But there's been no apology.

There's been no apology for trust.

There's been no admission that their policies are what has driven immigration to the levels that it has, including Johnson and Brexit.

There has been no apology for the sort of smashing of public services.

And all Mel Stride offered yesterday was more austerity.

Massive cuts that he couldn't really explain.

So I think unless they do actually have a proper analysis to why they're lost, I just don't think people are going to listen.

Final thing for me.

The real reason why Conservatives must not, cannot

continue down this path of going further and further to the right is moral.

It doesn't really matter if somebody produces a poll suggesting you can get back a few 2024 voters by doing this.

If we are anything, we were and should be the party that believes in tradition, the constitution,

prudence at home, restraint abroad, good fiscal management, and upholds the rule of law.

The European Convention on Human Rights was created by Conservatives.

It's been an extraordinary thing in keeping peace and the rule of law in Europe.

Getting rid of it is the beginning of a very, very dangerous path.

You'll find very quickly that what's stopping you expelling people illegally from the United Kingdom isn't the European Convention.

It's our own Supreme Court.

It's our Convention on the Rights of Children.

It's our Convention on the Rights of Torture.

And then what happens?

You get rid of the Supreme Court.

You get rid of the Convention on Torture.

You get rid of the Convention on Truth.

You get rid of our fundamental rights.

But this is what happens when you have debates that are founded on political myth and wishful thinking as opposed to reality.

Let me just quote Dominic Greave.

I thought he'd really put it well.

The advice received by Kemi Badenock shows clearly that leaving the ECHR will come at great cost.

This is the Wilson advice that they're relying on.

It will end at minimum all security cooperation with the EU and probably the TCA, the Trade and Cooperation Agreement itself, with all the economic implications that come from this, which Labour are bit by bit fixing.

Despite the attempts in the advice to wriggle round reality, it's plainly in breach of the Good Good Friday Agreement, an international treaty that underpins the Northern Ireland peace process.

They don't have any answer for that.

And she actually did an interview in Northern Ireland the other day where she said that Northern Ireland voted to leave the EU, which it didn't.

All this is for very little benefit.

The advice is honest enough to point out that leaving does not solve all the problems of deporting criminals or removing failed asylum seekers.

The reality is starker.

It is largely peripheral to these issues.

By leaving, we will damage ourselves and our international standing, and the electorate will see almost no impact on dealing with illegal

i agree with him but it's not the key point is not the practical arguments the key point is the moral right we're in a world in which trump is destroying all rule of law at home in america internationally the israeli government is challenging the rule of law the chinese government's challenging rule of law the russian government's challenging the rule of law our only hope for peace future is for countries like britain and europe to stand up for human rights, the rule of law, international regulations.

That's what's kept peace since 1945.

It's moral, but it's also in all of our own interests.

And if we lose that moral focus, lose the idea that we can get stuff done while remaining within the rule of law, we're really doomed.

Final quiz question, Roy, you did very well on the one so far.

Of 20 Conservative leaders who have fought general elections, only four have not won an election.

Wow.

Whereas with Labour, only five, I think of 19, have won.

Well, but that will not be true in the future.

I'm afraid they are on track.

My question was to me

the second most popular populist party.

Name the four.

Oh, the four that didn't win.

The three are quite recent.

So sorry.

So these are conservative leaders.

Conservative leaders who fought a general election but didn't win.

You mean just the ones that lost?

Rishi Sunak lost.

And then I guess it's the guys that lost before.

So Michael Howard, William Haig, John Major.

No, John Major won an election.

He lost an election.

Leaders who never won a general election.

Who never won a general election.

So then we need to go back before that.

Alec Douglas Hume never won an election.

He never fought one.

Okay.

All right.

Who's the fourth then?

Balfa.

Balfa.

Well done.

Balfa.

That's taken me back a long way, isn't it?

Over the central.

That just shows you what a winning machine they have been.

Yeah, yeah.

Talking to winning machines, Rory.

Maybe one of the most impressive winning machines in politics is the LDP in Japan.

They've been in power for most of 70 years.

And they've had a real kind of rough ride in recent times, but they're still in power.

And they've got a new leader just been elected called Sane Takaichi.

And you talk about the enduring influence of Margaret Thatcher.

She wore a very Thatcherite blue suit to accept her victory.

And she basically says that Thatcher is her hero.

She's quite tough in terms of China.

She's also very tough on Ukraine, to be fair.

She thinks that the Americans have not been tough enough on Ukraine and Russia.

So there we are.

We've got a woman leader in Japan, first ever.

So that's the moment of history.

Very good.

Well, I'm afraid we'll have to keep coming back to the Tories, but my instinct is they're on the path to ruin.

This is it.

This great party, which you keep giving us these extraordinary statistics about, you know, the oldest, most successful party in any parliamentary democracy in the world, if it goes down the route of trying to become Britain's second most popular populist party, is done forever.

Well, I'd be lying if I said I wasn't music to my ears, but then I sort of think, actually, no, is it that good to have reform as the main right-wing party?

probably not okay Rory and then back tomorrow with question time we're going to talk about the American shutdown of their government we're going to talk about France and the political chaos there we're going to talk about the Greens and also I know you're gagging to ask me whether I'll get a BAFTA for my my cameo and the hack very good I look forward to asking you that tomorrow thank you and bye-bye see you soon

Alistair Campbell here.

Now we've just released a series on one of the most controversial and consequential people of the past 50 years, Rupert Murdoch.

I think you can argue that he is the most consequential figure of the second half of the 20th century.

He holds power longer than anyone else in our time.

And it's meaningful power.

It's phenomenal power.

Power without responsibility, the prerogative of the harlot throughout the ages.

This is where he becomes not just a newspaper owner, he becomes a major newsmaker.

Fuck Dacre publish.

There is always a premium on bringing him gossip.

I don't know what you mean by down market and up market.

That is so English class-ridden snobbery when you talk like that.

How you get it doesn't make any difference.

Actually, to be perfectly honest, whether it's true or not doesn't make much difference.

There is a massive, massive scandal.

brewing.

This was industrial, illegal activity, and that I think is what really cuts through to the public and thinks you people are really, really bad.

I would just like to say one sentence.

This is the most humble day of my life.

There is no Donald Trump without Fox News.

His dream was always to elect a president of the United States.

The bitter irony is that that turned out to be Donald Trump, a man he detests.

He is conquering the world.

There's nothing less than this methodical, step-by-step progress to take over

everything.

To hear more, sign up at the restispolitics.com.

Hi, it's David from The Rest is Classified here with a very special message for listeners of The Rest is Politics.

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