Ray Dalio: America’s Hidden Civil War, and the Race to Beat China in Tech, Economics, and Academia

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So I've heard you say that the United States is in a civil war. And I think most Americans don't perceive that.
Can you tell us what you mean by that? Well, what I mean by a civil war, I should say a type of civil war, right? And what I mean is that there are irreconcilable differences that each side is willing to fight for in order to get the outcomes that they want. And that in that environment, the issues of how does the legal system work? Is that going to stand in the way of that fight or is there going to be a fight that will um make the cause um more important than anything so that's the type of situation that we're in and those gaps we understand there's common there's wealth and values gaps that are entering into this.
We've seen this through history. So where that goes is a different question, but we are in that type of civil war, are we not? Clearly we are.
Clearly we are. How are they resolved? I mean, clearly they can be resolved through violence, but what are the other ways you resolve the kind of conflict we have?

Normally, they're resolved through conflict because you get to the point where both sides can't reach agreements. Both sides don't even want to talk.
Both sides don't want to respect the rule of the law. So when we're dealing with things like sanctuary city issues, we're dealing with enforceability.

Who has the enforceability? Okay, and you almost have to play out, okay, enforceability means police forces and such things. Right, people with guns, yeah.
Right, people with guns and, you know, causes that just because the legal thing says they shouldn't do

that, that's not going to stand in the way. We have that kind of a situation.
So we are probably

past the point of being able to resolve that by compromise and empathy and all of that. So

normally it goes that way. I mean, the only thing that can be done is to have the fear of that create a necessity for having another path.
You know, like we were talking about the debt situation. So can can there be a fiscal commission that gets together and then achieves those things or not? I think it's unlikely.
I think we're going to more fragmentation states. There are some states and other states.
I think we're going to see more fragmentation. And so but, you know, it's like this dynamic through history.
This isn't the first time this happened. This happens repeatedly through history.
And usually, you know, it runs its course. So the way our leaders in the United States have dealt with it over the past 30 years has just been to ignore it completely, just ignore it.
Well, there's a cycle, you know. The cycle was, let's say, I don't know, Ronald Reagan and Tip O'Neill,

and they get together. Well, there's a cycle, you know.
The cycle was, let's say, I don't know, Ronald Reagan and Tip O'Neill,

and they get together and they were operating in a certain way.

And the manifestations of the circumstances, you know,

the manifestations of debt or wealth gap or values gaps were not as great.

So you didn't, over that 30-year period,

have as much polarity in many different ways. So now you've gone to greater polarity.
If you watch statistics, everything I do comes from measuring things. So I look at statistics.
The gap in measuring conservative or liberal votes in the House and the Senate is the greatest gap since 1900. And the voting across party lines is the least since 1900.
So you see this gap. You see it in the elections, right? The green and so the blue and red.
So we're not, it's not just an evolutionary, it's where we are, where we have gotten to, that is the irreconcilable questions. Does the Supreme Court, you know, we thought about the Supreme Court differently not long ago.
Right. The Supreme Court was the Supreme Court.
And so now it's different. So what accounts, I mean, there are a million ways to measure this and all of them.
Do you agree? Well, of course I agree. Of course I and i and i agree with you that every measurement shows the same result which is the country so we know

where we are but what completely and we're not sure how it's resolved but i think it's also pausing to ask what happened what was the change that led to the polarization that was unimaginable even 35 years ago.

The change

was

in a combination

of the system working well for the majority of the people and which has to do with the majority of the people not being productive you have productivity equals income right okay so now if if you take education and you take measures of how productive or how well-trained you're going to be, you see, and therefore also income, your productivity, you see by all of these measures, great, great gaps that exist. So by way of example is unicorns and the changes that we're seeing, fabulous changes in what we're seeing in technology.
But it really comes down to, if you take the number of people who have been making those changes and having unicorns in this wonderful world, they go to the best universities and they make these wonderful things happen. That's about 3 million people in a country of a little over 330 million people.
And if you take the average, 60% of Americans have below a sixth grade reading level. 60% of Americans.
So when we deal with education, you have to make that population productive. And through productivity, they become educated and they become productive.
They earn money and you have a better society. So a number of things changed that.
It was the combination of globalization and technology. Think about, I remember, and you probably remember, what the middle class working on an assembly line at an auto plant was like and how manufacturing occurred.
Yes. Okay.
A combination of foreign producers and automation changed all that. Of course.
So that produces a larger wealth gap. And then with that wealth gap, we also have very large values gaps.
But it's driven by the wealth gap. It's both, you know.
Some population, here we are at the World Government Summit in Dubai, and you have very globalization and everybody, the elites, let's call them the elites, we're among the elites, are here doing deals and, you know, facing questions and all of that. And at the same time, then there's those who are dealing with their basics.

So wealth gaps contribute to it, but there's also values gaps. Technology is part of the reason that we're here.
Religion. Yes.
You know, belief systems. These are important, too.
Of course. but we're on the edge of this AI transformation, which seems like it's going to accelerate the trends that have led us to where we are right now.
So what do you, I mean, if artificial intelligence, you know, increases efficiency, but leaves an even greater number of people without meaningful work in the United States, what happens? There needs to be a game plan.

Yeah. Okay.
There needs to be a game plan. That's the main thing.
In other words, I can describe the circumstance. Yes.
Okay. And we can agree that there needs to be a game plan.
Well, let me ask you some I'm not responsible for the game plan, you know,

everybody and you spend your life talking to everybody and you know, you're one of the world's biggest investors. So, you know, you're taking these questions seriously.
Are you familiar with a game plan in progress? Like there was not a game plan at all. No, that seems crazy.
You know, yeah, it seems crazy.

It seems like we are going from a transition.

I'm just being analytical.

Yes, mechanical.

OK, we are going from from a transition in which there is, I don't know, collectivism, a multinational, you know, all the constituents working together kind of environment that has also created a bureaucracy and inefficiencies and so on. So you're going from an environment in which there was a World Health Organization, a World Trade Organization, a World bank, and all of that, to unilateral, in my own interest, in other words, as a country or within a country, as a constituency, my tribe, what is my interest, and you're going to fight for it.
So we have evolved into that kind of lay of the land situation. And so the question is almost, what is the we? Who is in control? Okay.
I mean, we change control very quickly. And then who has the plan? So now you get in control, you fight to get into control, you're in control, you got to do things quickly, and you're doing things quickly.
You know, we don't have the continuity to be able to work together to be able to have a plan. Well, to be more specific about it, I would say the people developing the technologies, so they would be various Chinese companies, of course, but also Google and Microsoft, Sam Altman.
Parker, you're so idealistic, but realistic. Yes, we all should work together.
No, no, no, no. I'm merely saying if I'm unleashing something on the global population, then I think it's fair to ask me, like, what do you expect to happen to everybody?

I think, no, but I think that's what I mean.

The notion that it's fair to,

denies the reality

that we're in an environment

of pursuit of self-interest.

So if you take the fight,

let's say of technologies,

of course, the one who wants to get

the latest AI out

wants to beat the other one who does it

Thank you. fight, let's say, of technologies.
Of course, the one who wants to get the latest AI out wants to beat the other one who does it, let alone an American firm and a Chinese firm. And I'm just trying to describe the reality to you, Tucker.
So now let's look at those realities. That's the reality.
So when you say they should, okay, that's the theoretical should yes they should come up with rules that is better for the harmony of the people as a whole okay i agree they should i guess what i'm saying is i'm once again realistic idealistic oh you got to grow up i'm 55 i'm still disappointed. But you're absolutely right.
And I'm not here to sort of inspire a moral lecture from you or deliver one. I just want to kind of know what you think is going to happen.
So you have these technologies. Is it fair to say that they really are as transformative? They're as big a deal as? Hugely.
The greatest. So I've studied history, right? Yes right yes i study um you know what was the impact of the printing press and what was the impact for the industrial revolutions and so on this in my opinion is the biggest impact that we have because it will revolutionize all thinking that applies to everything.
It applies to everything. So whatever you're doing, it will make it much more efficient, much more powerful.
But that includes wars too. You know, everything is going to be radically transformed because anything that we apply thinking to is going to be very much transformed by it.
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Can you give us some concrete examples that you believe will come to pass, you know, in the next few years?

What will change that we at this point can understand?

Well, right now, tests of AIs is we, all of them, can pass tests that are equivalent to the PhDs in all fields in one mind, so that there is what we call molypaths, people who can think both across domains. So in that, we have these operating so that it's not just like a PhD in one area, it's like a PhD in all areas, and that it could look across those areas and give you answers and operate that way.
That has created the, there's an acceleration of this because it compounds as it learns the learning compounds and it produces that. So that is a reality today.
People just haven't yet experienced all of that. And so you're very quickly going to be in a situation where the problems are going to be given to it.
You're going to ask it strategies and so on that can take into consideration all of the things that are happening from everywhere and how the cause-effect relationships work. Think about it this way.
There's so much complexity in the world. Everything that we're, you know, what happened, there's economic policies or economic things.
There are financial things. There are health things.
There are all of these things. And they all relate to each other.
It's, you know, it's called, I think, the butterfly syndrome. You know, if a butterfly changes, flaps its wings, it has these secondary consequences.
This is all very complex. It's very complex for the human mind to think about those things.
We're now having a situation where it can all be taken into consideration and be a partner, a thought partner, that can actually go beyond our capacities to think about those relationships. And in thinking about those relationships and so on, it has an enormous impact.
Somebody in the medical area was giving me the example of learning about all the causes, but with the data that they're going to have on each one of us about what were our experiences and what is our diagnosis of each of the parts. And you watch that over time.
What air do you breathe? What environment are you in? What stress are you in? And all that, that there will be the understanding of these cause-effect relationships that in turn change things. And then you go down to the microscopic level of dealing with practically at the molecular cell level in dealing with these problems.
Okay, the changing of DNA and these types of things. All of those we are in the midst of a tremendous revolutionary change.
What about the field of economics? Can you take kind of the art and the guessing out of it at this point? So you're saying, you have said many times, you've written a lot about it, but the need of governments to get down to 3% of GDP with their debt. So or else everything collapses.
How do you do that at all these political consequences? The population doesn't want less money spent on them.. Obviously you could get, you know, governments falling and stuff.
Wouldn't AI just solve that for you? You said it produced a strategy. Does AI control human nature? No, but these are- Human nature, my bet is that human nature is going to be the biggest force, and it's all going to come down to how we are with each other.
I'm so glad, though. So there'll be room for human beings still, even as we're changing DNA and implanting chips in our brains and stuff.
Well, if not, we're lost. And if so, we're dealing with each other.
Yeah. I don't know how well that's going to go either but i wonder like that you know there's still debates i mean you're effectively an economist the debates about supply side versus demand side like what is you know what is the near and far-term effect of these economic causes we're going to we're going to be able to understand at a micro level how things work better.
Exactly. Okay.
So,

by the way,

again, We're going to be able to understand at a micro level how things work better.

Exactly.

Okay.

So, by the way, again, I put out this writings, this study that shows the mechanics, and I want to convey that mechanic so everybody can see the mechanics. But you're going to go down to a molecular level.
That means like nowadays we or policy makers like the Federal Reserve think about something like inflation. And there'll be maybe five measures of inflation.
And we're using the term inflation because our minds are limited in its capacity of the number of things we could think about. When we're now in this new reality, which we now are, you can go down to a molecular level essentially and saying, I could see all the different transactions of what was bought and what was sold and why.
And now I can really have a level of understanding. We don't have to be at this grand level that we don't.
We're going to be at the molecular level of understanding individual transactions and what's affecting them and be able to deploy resources at the individual molecular level, just like we can do it in biology or physical existence and so on. So, I mean, this will, lots of downsides to AI.
Obviously, I dread it. I would end it if I could.
But there are upsides, and this sounds like one of them. So like if you- Of course.
So we have a COVID again, and we're thinking about, should we issue COVID checks? With AI, we can know the effects of it. Right, what the money's going for.
And that'll change everything. It'll change the controls.
But it is it is of course a two-edged sword right it'll change uh who controls it who has access to it who can use it detrimentally to other people all of these things are part of the question is there any way to avoid like totalitarian social controls under ai with ai I think there's a question of whether you can have social and totalitarian social controls under AI, with AI? I think there's a question of whether you can have social and totalitarian controls, or maybe you just have anarchy. I mean, I don't know where we're going.
I can't tell you, I cannot tell you what this world, I do believe we're going to go through a time warp, okay? What I mean, it's going to feel like, pooh, you're going through over the next five years and that environment is because of these five major forces that do all of these things and the changes in the technologies particularly artificial intelligence and related technologies so the world five years from now is going to be a radically different world.

And I don't know what that's going to look like when you go into the world of quantum computing and what quantum is like in so many different ways. It raises questions of, you know, what is that like? I'm not smart enough to tell you what that world is going to look like.
But as an investor for 50 years. Who is in control? I don't know who's in control.
Okay, so, but, right.

So this is like the opposite of what you've done your whole life,

where you try to predict, you know, five years hence.

That's your whole business right well that's uh i said my my business is try to predict but i i'd say the first thing whatever success i've had in life has more to been due to my knowing how to deal with what i don't know than anything I know. Okay.
So how you deal with what you don't know. I believe that.
Okay. Is so important.
So I, yes, my, my business in a nutshell is I try to find a bunch of bets that I think are good bets, but to diversify well, so that I have a bunch of diversified bets because I do not know. I mean, in terms of my actual track record, I've probably been right about 65% of the time.
Okay. And any one bad bet can kill you.
So I've known how to deal with that. That's what I've learned, including how to deal with what I don't know.
So now you're describing an environment where you can't really know anything about the world in five years. Well, I can know, I could place good bets.
Okay. There are some things that are highly knowable.
Okay. Highly knowable, like they say, you know, death and taxes.
Right. Okay.
Demographics. Okay.

So I can know or have a view, for example, that owning, I believe, owning dead assets is not going to be a good thing.

So I could think about alternative storeholds of wealth.

I can think about that.

I can place some bets that allow me, you know, they're not the certain bets, but I can place enough bets and have enough diversification that I can be relatively confident of some things, but never absolutely all totally confident. But I think when we're coming back anyway, that's the reality.
I'm just describing our reality the best I can. That's why people who are confident in the future and are just experiencing the present, you know, right now, people are describing, all of them are describing how things are.
And almost everybody thinks the future is going to be a modified version of the present. A pure extrapolation forward, yeah.
Okay. Things are good.
I get it. Okay.
Well, I'll guarantee you there will be big changes. So those are dumb people, you're saying, making those comments.
I'm saying it's understandable, but when you study change and the nature of change, it's a, you know, the world changes in dramatic ways because of causes that we can look at and get a good understanding of. But we can't be sure about anything because of the nature.
But in this specific case, I mean, that's always true, and wise people understand that. Like, you're not in control of the future.
Of course, you're not God. But in this specific case, I mean, that's always true and wise people understand that.
Like you don't, you're not in control of the future. Of course, you're not God.
But in this specific case where there are specific technologies whose development we understand because we're watching it, it almost feels like there's no human agency here. Like not one person ever suggests like, well, why don't we just stop the development of the technologies by force? Well, I think you're being theoretical again.
Well, I don't know. Just look how the system works, okay? Yes.
Who makes what decisions how? Like, I think you have the bias of we should stop all these technologies and just stop it. Somebody else has another view, and the other people have other views.
And then there's a means by which those views turn into actions, okay? And so it's correct, the system that we're dealing in will make those types of decisions, and we could discuss the pros and cons of all of those things, but that's just how it works, right? I don't know. I mean, there are all kinds of pernicious, longstanding things that we've stopped, like the global slave trade.
The Brits are like, we're not for this, we're stopping it. And they did.
Tucker, you are using that we stopped, okay? No, Britain stopped it. Okay, but I'm just trying to say, you have to look at the system and say, who has their hands on the levers of power? Right what will they do? And what are their motivations? How does the system work? I think that's right.
Okay. How does the machine work to make decisions? Okay.
So if we can agree on this person makes these types of decisions about these things, and it works this way, then we can say we, the collective we, can do that. But the theoretical collective we that is going to make decisions, like we could sit here and be very theoretical.
I get it. A determined nation probably can't stop this.
So that, my second question is, you keep hearing that there's this AI race between the United States and China. Yeah.

Is it true that one country will be completely dominant by the end of this race and that that will be meaningful? No, I think that what's going to happen is, and again, I'm speaking now probabilistically, I think that there will be different types of developments. But by and large, it's very difficult to keep intellectual property.

Yes.

That you, when you take the products of the intellectual property and you put them in the public, that'll last about six months, I mean, at most, and you'll develop the nearest. And so intellectual property protections and isolation is probably not going to work.
So and so now we're going to have different advantages and disadvantages. Let's say, for example, in China's case, there are many fantastic chips, not quite at the same level.
See, we design chips, but we can't produce chips effectively. We can't produce, by and large, we can't produce things, any manufactured goods, as effectively, cost effectively, by and large.
We have a problem doing that. So what we'll do is we'll design those better chips.
You won't have the intellectual protections, and you're going to then have the production of things in China at a very inexpensive way. Manufacturing.
China has about 33% of the manufacturing in the world, which is more than the United States, Europe, and Japan combined. They manufacture effectively cheaply.
They will embed chips in the manufacturing the application of chips they're going to probably they are more ahead on china's more head on the application of chips robotics so we're talking about just thinking but when you connect the thinking to bodies that are automatic bodies too yes and you have robotics and so on they're ahead on that type of thing so different entities are going to be ahead in different ways. And we're going to then be in this world in which there's competition in that world.
And then there's an attempt to be protectionist or whatever, or to fight those differences. And that's what the world looks like.
Does the combination of AI and robotics bring manufacturing back to the United States?

We are behind in both of those areas. Greatly behind.
You know, so, you know, I would say we're not going to have competitive advantages in those things. what we're competitive in is that small percentage of the population that is uniquely inventive in terms of inventiveness, you know, the number of Nobel Prize winners in the United States.
The United States dominates Nobel Prize winners in the world. The inventiveness, best universities and so on.
We have a system that is a legal system and a capital market system, and we can bring the best from the world all to the United States to create an environment. If we can work well together in that inventiveness with rule of law working and all of that working, we have those things that are our competitive advantage.

We do not have manufacturing, and we're not going to go back and be competitive in manufacturing with China in our lifetimes, I don't believe.

Okay?

So now the question is how we deal with that.

Our inventiveness, you just said, and many have said, comes from our education system from our universities. But then you began the conversation by saying that AI is already...
And foreigners. If you look at that population, this 3 million people who's just basically changing, about half of them are foreigners.
If you can attract the best and the brightest, and there's a lot to be attracted to in the United States from the best and the brightest body because we are a country of all of these different people operating this way. And we create these equal opportunities.
Look who's running some of the countries with companies. They come from different places.
If we can have the best of the world in the world come in that kind of environment to be creative and so on, we can invent and so on. But we can't produce.
But those, the people you're describing have come to our universities, that's basically. That's right.
Silicon Valley's there because Stanford's there. That's right.
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But you began the conversation by saying that AI is now at the point where, you know, the machines have the equivalent knowledge of a PhD in every different topic. So like at some point, are you going to have universities? We'll redefine what universities are like, but are you going to have that combination of things working together? Because still, we're a long way from, not a long way, but we're away from the point of the decision-making will be made by the AI.
Because, okay, and the wisdom will be by the AI. Like, you're not going to have the AI determine how you raise your kid, and different people will raise their children differently and so on.
The actual, you'll rely on it, but it's really the magic for the foreseeable future is remarkable people with remarkable technologies producing remarkable changes. And then we're going to have then the consequences of that.
As long as human decision making plays a role, I'm totally fine with it. But yeah, you say that the university is going to change.
I mean, how could it not? I thought the Internet was going to get rid of universities. It didn't happen.
But, I mean, how long does it take for the current model to change? It's pretty resistant to change. I think it's, yes, it's slow to change.
And those who change slowly will be left behind. And then you'll have the best.
I would say you see things taking place. But anyway, I would expect that it's going to...
Life is more like a game, I think. You know, it's almost like a video game.
And you're going to be able to have real-world learning experiences in many different ways to be able to provide education, but it's going to be interactive. You're going to see a type of merging, whether you like it or not, you're going to see a type of merging of the man and the artificial intelligence.
Does that worry you? of course it worries uh and then it excites me um you know what worries me most fundamentally is how people are with each other okay yes can we put harmony and and and happiness um togetherness can we resolve decisions? Can we deal with these issues together?

That is the most important thing. I think we emphasize too much the wonderful, remarkable things that we get from AI, like we'll have greater life expectancy and less disease, and we can have all of those things.
But the question is, do we have harmony, quality of life? You know, I did a study. It's also, I put it out free online, which is ratings, lots of statistics used for rating various conditions of countries, 24 top countries.
It's called the Global Powers Index. It's online free for anybody who wants to look at it.
And I rated different powers, economic power, military power, education power, and so on. Then I rated health, how long you live, the diseases you're encumbered by, and so on, and happiness, what your happiness level is.

And what's interesting about that is that the measures of power don't have a,

past a certain level of living standards, don't have a correlation with health,

which is amazing because you have all the money to produce the health, and have no correlation with happiness. Like, for example, in the United States, which is the most powerful country in the world by these measures, our life expectancy is five years less than Canadians, so they they're right next to us and five years less than company uh countries of equal income levels okay so health we don't there's poor correlation um and unhappiness there's no correlation but the like uh indonesia has the second highest happiness rating.

So all I'm saying is we think about also how we work with each other,

how we are with each other.

The highest determinant of happiness is community.

Of course.

If you have a good community, you have happiness and it has a positive effect on health. So I think it all comes down to how we are with each other that is going in dealing with all of the questions that you're raising.
There's been no advance in like changing human nature over time, right? I mean, what's a technological advance, no advance in getting along with each other. Yeah, it goes in ebbs and cycles.
I would look at it this way. There are many religions in the world.
Most of the religions have two components to them. The first component is, you know, follow the word of God, and you have to follow it, you know, in that way.
But the others are about harmony. And they are, in other words, how do we create a harmonious society? You know, the, so you look at the Ten Commandments or something, and they are rules for how do you achieve harmony.

And there are things like karma. Okay, how do you achieve harmony? So different societies have different ways of trying to achieve harmony.
So I think that's important, harmony. I think it comes down to some basic things.
Like I study this thing and I go around the world. I think, first, do you educate, raise your children well? Okay.
In other words, educate them in capability, so they're capable, but also in civility and how they are with each other. Because a capable, civil person will come out to a society in which they can work well together to be productive.
That people have to be productive, right? So, but in order to be productive, you have to have a harmony. They have to deal with the questions.
I'm answering your question about how we deal with this. I'm saying we have to deal with it together.
There's only in an environment where there's harmony rather than fighting are you going to be able to address the types of questions that you're raising right how do you you you know you when you're asking me uh uh you know is uh what's going to happen with uh ai and and then you say we need to do this and we need to do that it strikes me that it depends how the we's deal with each other to be able to deal with those things is the most important things and there are basics of how we deal with each other that's the most important thing i agree with that last question you didn't grow i don't think you grew up in like a billionaire world no my dad was a jazz musician and you know we had a low middle class family but i have it everything i ever needed well so that's kind of my question now you live obviously in a billionaire world which is where do you run into more happy people oh almost general if you get past the things that you uh your basics you know if i can uh you know health education habitat education, habitat, and you get past those, you've got everything you need. And then if you have community, you have everything you need.
That is the best. Rydalia, thank you very much.
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