Mark Halperin on Why He Thinks Trump Will Win and the Left’s Mental Collapse

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Here's the episode. So, where,

Speaker 4 like, where are we? So, we're three, I think, three weeks out today.

Speaker 4 What's the state of the race?

Speaker 4 Well, people say it's going to be close for sure. I don't agree with that.
I think it could be one of them could win easily. And I think today that's more likely to be Trump.

Speaker 4 All the variables that you would look at to say who's going to win

Speaker 4 point towards Trump with four big exceptions that I think I know is what the Democrats are relying on. So barring these four things coming together, I think Trump will win.

Speaker 4 And I think he might win easily.

Speaker 4 But she could still win. Number one is abortion.

Speaker 4 Just don't know how big a vote it will be. Now, I say to people, why wouldn't that be showing up in the polls now? Why would that be a secret? But the reality is

Speaker 4 there's

Speaker 4 an emotion to that issue. As you know, politics is about emotion more than anything else.
There's an emotion to that issue that may be bigger than is currently measured. Number two is...

Speaker 4 But to be clear, that's not showing up in the public polls right now. Well, I mean, by definition, it's not showing up in the two places you'd look for.
One is in the horse race.

Speaker 4 She's not way ahead in the horse race. And number two, when he asks people what's the most important issue to you, abortion is well behind the economy, inflation, immigration.

Speaker 4 But we've seen its electoral power. And we know that Donald Trump thinks it's a big issue because he's struggled to neutralize it.
He's not doing that for fun.

Speaker 4 He's doing that because he sees the same data that there's a power to this issue that may be beyond the current measurements. That's number one.
Number two is simply a gender gap, just the

Speaker 4 reality that women vote vote more than men.

Speaker 4 And again, they may, it connects to abortion, but it's not just about abortion because women don't like Donald Trump, a lot of women don't like Donald Trump. That may just power a victory.

Speaker 4 Three is her ground game, right? The mechanical process. Her campaign is run.

Speaker 4 The chair of her campaign is someone who grew up as a field person. I don't think that's ever happened in a major presidential campaign before.
And they have way more money.

Speaker 4 And President Trump has gone out of his way to demonize early voting. He's trying to change it now.
But the mechanics of that, if it is in fact close, people say that could be worth three points.

Speaker 4 Three points could well be significantly bigger.

Speaker 4 And then lastly is the notion that he has a ceiling, that if the third party vote is very low, and it's much more likely to be low like it was in 20 than high, like it was in 16 from the Libertarians and the Greens and

Speaker 4 Cornell West, then

Speaker 4 it may be that he can't get above 47%,

Speaker 4 that this simply, what do you call it Trump fatigue or January 6th, whatever you want to call it, puts off limits to him some number of voters, that

Speaker 4 she may, in a two, effectively a two-person race in the seven states, may be able to get to 48, 49, and he can't. Those four things are what give Democrats hope that they can win.

Speaker 4 But in my reporting over the last week, Republicans are not. are not measuring the drapes and picking the cabinet, but pretty close to it.

Speaker 4 Not at the level they were at the convention when Joe Biden was still their opponent, but there's extreme confidence that they're going to take the House, take the Senate, take the White House.

Speaker 4 Democrats are somewhere between worried and freaking out. And her conduct and her capabilities as a candidate are not reassuring them.

Speaker 4 If they were honest about it, they would say, as some of them have started to say,

Speaker 4 how could we have dumped Joe Biden for someone who has a few advantages over him, but has many of the same problems? And by the way, some additional problems of their own.

Speaker 4 And I think they're recognizing that when you choose a candidate like that, you're taking a bit of a risk and the risk may not, just may not pay off for them.

Speaker 4 So on

Speaker 4 what basis are they evaluating the race? Like what polls are

Speaker 4 both sides, people, you listen to the smart people

Speaker 4 with predictive success over time. Like what are they looking at?

Speaker 4 Well, they're looking at the reality that the race may be back.

Speaker 4 As some Trump people told me immediately after she became the nominee, we may be looking at a situation where she's back to where the party's back to where they were when Biden was the nominee before the debate.

Speaker 4 Before the debate, he had one electoral college path, which was to win the three Great Lakes states in the Nebraska congressional district. And that's it.

Speaker 4 No one's ever won when they had one electoral college path. It's, you know, margin of error, but not impossible.

Speaker 4 But they have to be all in on that because Biden was not going to win the four Sunbelt battlegrounds. She's edged back closer to that.

Speaker 4 She may be able to win them or one or two of them, but it's possible that those are going to be as off limits to her eventually as they were to Biden.

Speaker 4 And she's weaker in the Great Lakes states than he is. So

Speaker 4 if you look at the private data and where things stand, these races are close.

Speaker 4 And if it's within two points, if Trump has consistently has a two-point lead or a three-point lead or a four-point lead, does that mean he has to win the state? It doesn't.

Speaker 4 But it's the consistency that has come in the last couple of weeks in both parties' data, where she has come down and he has come up a little bit that make them worried that she simply hasn't done enough to win.

Speaker 4 Her problem is, I say, the P problem of policy. People just suspect the undecided voters just don't understand what she's about.
And she has not done,

Speaker 4 some of them find it insulting how little she's explained what she's about. And we really don't know.
I've known her a long time. I've covered her a long time.

Speaker 4 I've studied her positions and her public policy engagement. I don't really know what she stands for.
I don't really know what she does as president.

Speaker 4 I don't really know what she believes in or why she's running.

Speaker 4 And you contrast this with Trump, where even his enemies can tell you right away what he stands for, what he would do in a second term, at least the big picture. And his problem is personality.

Speaker 4 And he's done almost as little to address that issue as she's done to address hers. And that means

Speaker 4 I'm amazed. People have said for so long.

Speaker 4 No one, so many people in the electorate don't want Trump or Biden. They want a third choice.
You don't really hear that now

Speaker 4 nearly as much, but it's almost as true.

Speaker 4 Not as true because she satisfies a lot of Democrats who are not satisfied with Biden, but a lot of Democrats and certainly a lot of independents and centrists and moderates, they don't like either of these choices.

Speaker 4 And that's part of what Democrats are looking at because I think in the end, as much as she's not satisfied people's desire for knowledge about her, they won't vote for Trump.

Speaker 4 They just simply don't want four more years of Trump. And she's turned to that message in the last 24 hours the way Biden did.

Speaker 4 Now, I don't know if she'll stick with it, but she's now emphasizing this notion of we can't go back to somebody this unstable and this

Speaker 4 and this unattractive in terms of personality.

Speaker 4 Changing your personality is hard. Well, it's probably impossible, and any attempt to do it comes off as false.
So there's, of course, a cost and a risk. But coming up with a platform is not hard.

Speaker 4 You just sit in a room with your pollsters and your policy guys and like pick three topics and stake out positions that contrast with your opponents. And like, why, why haven't they done that? Yeah.

Speaker 4 A lot of the questions about things she's doing and not doing

Speaker 4 um are mysteries even to a lot of democrats even some people close to her you've named one but why is she doing one event a day some days most days why isn't she flying to three battleground states in a day um

Speaker 4 when

Speaker 4 when uh people ask me why i think she she she's more likely to lose than not

Speaker 4 her her great weakness is she is indecisive she doesn't doesn't like to make hard decisions. And

Speaker 4 coming up with policy choices is difficult. If you think of everyone who's been elected president since H.W.

Speaker 4 Bush, so Clinton onward, they've all put at the center of their campaigns a set of policy proposals and kind of an ethos of the things that start with this sentence.

Speaker 4 What my party's gotten wrong is X, right?

Speaker 4 They've

Speaker 4 seized on some things that they really believe their party's out of step with the country and wrong on the substance.

Speaker 4 So, Bill Clinton, 92, supported the death penalty, right to work, NAFTA, and welfare reform. And he would say, my party's wrong on these things, right?

Speaker 4 It's obvious for the rest what they did. Not only has she not said that, I'm not sure she believes that.
I'm not sure that she thinks the party's out of step with the country on anything.

Speaker 4 And when you see

Speaker 4 government-funded

Speaker 4 operations for illegal immigrants who want to change their sexual identity.

Speaker 4 No way would Bill Clinton or Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton or John Kerry, no way would they have said,

Speaker 4 I'm for that. What is she? Because there's not strong public support for that.
No, no, just the opposite. So, so

Speaker 4 we say, why can't she come up with a platform? Any position she takes is going to be

Speaker 4 criticized if she moves to the center by the left.

Speaker 4 And even on the left, even if she takes something further to the left, as she has some of the things she's come up with, new government spending programs and tax programs, they're still subject to be criticized.

Speaker 4 And she doesn't like to be criticized. She'd rather try not to take positions.
Now, the other day.

Speaker 4 But can I just ask,

Speaker 4 even within the Democratic Party, which I routinely dismiss as crazy and evil and poisonous and all that, but paying for sex changes for legal aliens, that can't be a hugely popular issue, even within the party.

Speaker 4 It isn't, but it, but it is a popular position for the loudest, angriest, most influential part of the party. But if you do the sister soldier, that actually works.

Speaker 4 So if your goal is to get elected, I mean,

Speaker 4 this is a moral evaluation of this, right? But

Speaker 4 you just denounce the unpopular wackos in your party. It's not hard.
Yeah. Right? Well, it's, it's hard for her because she's indecisive.
She doesn't like that.

Speaker 4 That is, that is, I think, what explains it. You know, her big sister soldier moment was to say,

Speaker 4 I want to

Speaker 4 cut, I want to raise the capital gains tax rate less than Joe Biden. That was her big sister soldier moment.

Speaker 4 She also,

Speaker 4 you know, you look at her career, she's not really been a font of policy ideas. No.

Speaker 4 And that, you know, she's stolen a lot of Trump's ideas, which, you know, the Trump people don't like, but I guess it's smart if the other side's got a smart idea and you can claim it do.

Speaker 4 But in terms of original ideas, ideas, it's just not been her thing.

Speaker 4 And again, I think partly is she doesn't like to go onto terrain where people might shoot at her from the left or the right or both.

Speaker 4 And she is in a complex position just because of the nature of how she got to where she is now, the fact that there's a sitting president sort of in the shadows behind her.

Speaker 4 What is her relationship like with Biden?

Speaker 4 Well, it's gotten a little bit frayed of late because

Speaker 4 I don't think he, I think he, there are people who say he doesn't want her to win. I think he does want her to win.

Speaker 4 There are people who say he only wants her to win without disrespecting him, even though he has said privately to her and the teams have said to each other, she needs to do what she needs to do to win.

Speaker 4 I mean,

Speaker 4 I saw his mental decline in 2017. I did too.
You know, I saw him do a public event for a book in 2017, and I said after the event, thank goodness he's off the public stage.

Speaker 4 Thank goodness this didn't happen earlier. And so the

Speaker 4 those of us who knew him before, and speaking for myself, I always liked him

Speaker 4 in a very shallow way, but, you know, he's a fun to be around. Totally.
And sort of large personality, touchy Irish guy. I like people like that.

Speaker 4 But those of us who knew him, it was immediately obvious that he had some sort of cognitive decline. I mean, it's just

Speaker 4 so I think the things he's done of late that the press casts as hurting her, I just think he's doing because

Speaker 4 he's not super sharp. He's kind of out of it.
And the staff is, as they have when he was still the nominee, being deferential to him. But there is a,

Speaker 4 again, just recently, in the last 10 days or so, there have been a number of things like he went out in the briefing room, right, when she was starting her event.

Speaker 4 No one's really explained how that happened.

Speaker 4 It's hard to coordinate, right, between the West Wing, Wilmington, and the vice president's office. Like, those are three entities, busy people doing other things besides coordinating.

Speaker 4 So, I think they've dropped some stitches. I think they're determined to stop dropping stitches the rest of the way.
So, you don't think it's passive-aggression? I don't think it is.

Speaker 4 There are many people I respect who think it is. I don't think it is.
I think it's just it's hard, and he's not up to doing hard things.

Speaker 4 And she's, even though she's not campaigning very much, she's still on the road. And it's just, I just think they're dropping stitches.

Speaker 4 I really don't think there's a passive aggressive or even a mixed feeling about it. I think he wants her to win.

Speaker 4 I mean, the toughest question for her that I have seen is, how will you be different from

Speaker 4 Joe Biden? Yeah.

Speaker 4 Why haven't they thought through a better answer? Again, it's hard to get a straight answer about that. I think there's three things at play.
Number one, she doesn't want to appear disloyal.

Speaker 4 And that is something he does care about. As I said, he wants her to win, but he wants her to win his way.
He doesn't want her to win at his expense.

Speaker 4 That is an ambivalence, but

Speaker 4 not the fundamental question of does he want her to win? So number one, she doesn't want to disrespect him. Number two,

Speaker 4 taking different positions from him involves risk.

Speaker 4 There could be a backlash, right? And she doesn't, as I've said, that's her main problem. She doesn't like to take risks.
And then finally,

Speaker 4 there's just a basic performative question with her. That's not her only bad answer, right?

Speaker 4 That's the one that people have focused on the most, but she's just not good at delivering sound bites or complicated messages in a way that, that, that is helpful to her.

Speaker 4 You know, she does these interviews where nothing bad happens and they give high fives that nothing bad happened, or only a few bad things happen.

Speaker 4 None of these interviews has she come out of it where people said, wow, now I get it. Now I get why this person should be my president.

Speaker 4 And that's, again, just testament to she's just not that good at this thing called answering questions that are hard or easy.

Speaker 4 What do the donors who put her there think of all of this? Yeah. So I'd say impressionistically, because I haven't talked to them all, but impressionistically, about 80%

Speaker 4 of them are just,

Speaker 4 we got to look forward, the elections coming up, Trump must lose, we have to do everything we can to help. 20%

Speaker 4 say,

Speaker 4 How could we possibly have replaced,

Speaker 4 we all said the only Democrat who could lose

Speaker 4 to Donald Trump was Joe Biden. How could we have possibly played a role in replacing him with apparently the only other person who could lose to Donald Trump?

Speaker 4 Now, Joe Biden and I and Kamala Harris would say these other Democrats would have been struggling as much or maybe more than she would, even though they wouldn't have been as burdened with the Biden-Harris record.

Speaker 4 So what they're saying is this is the best we could do. This is better than Biden.
The pollsters are saying the public polls are saying she can still win it. Let's put our heads down and win.

Speaker 4 But there will be a lot of soul searching about how they possibly could have placed her in this role

Speaker 4 without the benefits of actually beating Donald Trump. How did that,

Speaker 4 I think you were one of the very, maybe the first person

Speaker 4 to report that this was coming, that Biden was going to step aside.

Speaker 4 How did you know that, by the way?

Speaker 4 I predicted it, but just predicted you reported it. Yeah.
So how did you know that? And how did that happen?

Speaker 4 I reported it against my instincts because I did not believe Joe Biden would give the nomination up.

Speaker 4 First of all, it's embarrassing and, you know, it's staying on his legacy as much as they built it up as great for his legacy.

Speaker 4 But also, he believed that she would become the nominee in all likelihood and that she could not beat Donald Trump.

Speaker 4 And that if somehow she didn't become the nominee, he didn't think Gavin Newsom or Gretchen Witten or any of these other people could beat Trump. And I think two years ago.

Speaker 4 Biden didn't think Kamala Harris could win. No.
Or be a good president, as I understand it. So he was.
Really? Yeah.

Speaker 4 He's he he, from the day, from the transition forward, he told Ron Clain and everyone else, she needs to meet with foreign leaders all the time. And she did.

Speaker 4 I mean, she's had an unprecedented, you know, kind of tutorial in that. She needs to be, you know, supported and all that.
We all know what happened. She, she, she did not run a good operation.

Speaker 4 Uh, there was leaking and, and her approval ratings were ridiculously low. He, he,

Speaker 4 part of it was his own, you know, pride in himself, but yeah, but, but the people around him to a person would not have told you that she could be Donald Trump.

Speaker 4 So my point is, I reported on it thinking he's not going to step down. And I had lots of people who we know, you and I both know, very smart, who say, you're wrong.
He's going to have to step down.

Speaker 4 Particularly Republicans said the party can't be that irrational. They can't say we're going to continue along with a guy who is who 70% of the Democrats say shouldn't be the nominee.

Speaker 4 But he didn't have to give it up. So

Speaker 4 I can't obviously say exactly how I broke it, but it started with a tip about the vetting of vice presidential prospects by her.

Speaker 4 And one of the stories that hasn't been written yet, I'll tease it out here and hopefully someday somebody will give me a big enough book contract I can write it is she started maneuvering for the nomination well before the Sunday morning when he called her and said he was not going to run.

Speaker 4 And part of that was vetting of potential running mates, which her team knew that couldn't wait. That had to get underway.
That's something, you you know, normally takes months.

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Speaker 4 I mean, that's more than vying for the job. I mean, that is measuring curtains.
Oh, yeah.

Speaker 4 If you're vetting your VP candidate when you're the VP,

Speaker 4 but because she knew, as my sources did, that he was strongly considering getting out and more than strongly considering, there was a period of at least a week and maybe more where amongst a very small circle of people, the default was he's getting out.

Speaker 4 And it's just a matter of when and how. You'll recall he got COVID and that kind of delayed things a little bit.

Speaker 4 Was that actually COVID?

Speaker 4 I don't know of any reason to believe it wasn't. I know there's lots of speculation about it, but I think it was.

Speaker 4 So on one track, you have him sort of starting to realize he needs to. And then you have the Pelosi track.
And the Pelosi track is part of why I was able to report what I was able to report, because

Speaker 4 she was determined to get him out. And she saw that Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer and the donors were not doing enough to get him out.
And so she felt she had no choice but to get him out.

Speaker 4 But again, not reported yet, she didn't want to be Kamala Harris. She wanted Shapiro to run, governor of Pennsylvania.
So she intended there to be a two-step process.

Speaker 4 And I'm not sure, because I don't know this from her and I would take it only from her. I'm not sure if she knew the outcome, whether she still would have been for it.
I think so, but I'm not sure.

Speaker 4 What would this do?

Speaker 4 I remember hearing people told me the exact same thing,

Speaker 4 that Obama wanted a two-step process. What would that have looked like? Well, lots of people talked about it publicly, right? There were people like James Carville and

Speaker 4 trying to think of the other prominent people who talked about it.

Speaker 4 There's others who wanted basically either in the run-up to the convention or at the convention, like one proposal was that Obama and Bill Clinton would pick six people and that those six people could run for the nomination by giving speeches and having the delegates vote.

Speaker 4 And they didn't rule out Kamala Harris, but the clear kind of gestalt of it was: this is the way to stop Kamala Harris.

Speaker 4 The delegates were Biden-Harris delegates. She's the incumbent vice president.
She's a black woman of color, and the campaign money could only transfer to her.

Speaker 4 So, those are pretty big advantages, particularly this question of the delegates, right? They're Biden-Harris delegates. Were they going to vote for somebody else in a competitive contest?

Speaker 4 So, the assumption was, even if you couldn't get her to stand down, and they knew they probably couldn't get her to stand down, who's going to run against that?

Speaker 4 Who's going to run against somebody with all of those advantages? And so

Speaker 4 I think what some people don't take sufficiently into account is the clock was ticking.

Speaker 4 If they'd had a year to figure this out, maybe things would have gone differently, but they didn't have much time.

Speaker 4 And the minute she made it clear to people she was going forward, and he asked these other people, will you run against her? None of them wanted to. None of them wanted to.
So it wasn't a matter of.

Speaker 4 Like who didn't want? I thought Gretchen Whitmer wanted to.

Speaker 4 Well, first of all, my sense of the people who get talked about, the half dozen, none of them are in a John Edwards, Barack Obama, George W. Bush school of, I must be president.

Speaker 4 And of course, Bush was relatively ambivalent, but he is like, yes, that's something I want.

Speaker 4 I think if you look at the six of them, not only are they ambivalent about running, let alone running against an incumbent vice president, I'm not sure if you offered them the presidency, any of them would take it like that.

Speaker 4 And some people think I'm naive about that. There are politicians who are ambitious who think about the White House.

Speaker 4 But just from knowing them and the people around them, I don't think you could say about any of them, automatic, here are the keys to 1600. I don't know that they would take it.

Speaker 4 And I say that without hoping I don't sound naive. They're politicians who have aspirations, but

Speaker 4 they're all relatively young. Some of them have younger kids.
They recognize the downsides of how it changes your life forever. And none of them are,

Speaker 4 again, in the Bills or classic Bill Clinton, like, I'm at Georgetown plotting how to get to the White House. They're just not like that.
So.

Speaker 4 I absolutely strongly agree with what you just said. Okay, good.

Speaker 4 And I've seen it happen. I saw Chris Christie.
I saw him do that in 2012. Exactly.

Speaker 4 Exactly. There are plenty of people.
It's a big step. Yeah.
It's a life-changing step. And if you've got younger kids, it's just like, for some of them, it's a non-starter.

Speaker 4 Or if you've got a spouse who's ambivalent, exactly.

Speaker 4 You can't do that.

Speaker 4 And if you look at the politics of the era we're in now, like a Democratic president is going to be attacked every minute on social media, no matter how good a job they do.

Speaker 4 Unless they can revolutionize our political culture, they're just going to have, you know, constantly bombarded. None of them have national security experience.
Like it's a big job.

Speaker 4 So, so in some ways, in retrospect, it was a fantasy to think anybody would run against her to say,

Speaker 4 I'm going to tear away Biden-Harris delegates. In addition, how are you going to design a system really where Bill Clinton and Barack Obama get to pick?

Speaker 4 They put a premium on,

Speaker 4 and she did, on the nomination wasn't handed to her. And it really, in some ways, it wasn't.

Speaker 4 She earned it in the sense that she figured out what the rules of the game were and she won the game.

Speaker 4 Yeah, I mean, if you had Obama and Clinton just make the decision, you'd have to admit publicly that it really is an

Speaker 4 oligarchy. Correct, you know, correct.
And so would they pick Bernie Sanders? You know, he might win if they picked Bernie Sanders. Yeah, they faced that problem twice before.
Yeah.

Speaker 4 So

Speaker 4 I was able to figure out that she was underway. And then I was able to figure out that he was working on a withdrawal plan.

Speaker 4 And then I was able to figure out that he had decided to withdraw as early as that weekend. This is on the Thursday night, the final night of the Republican convention.
And,

Speaker 4 you know, people said, how could you risk, you know, I don't work for a big legacy news organization with lawyers and, you know, PR people. How could you risk reporting it?

Speaker 4 I had it just completely nailed. It wasn't, it wasn't,

Speaker 4 it wasn't, it wasn't like a tough call to report it. I reported that he was not going to endorse her, which when I reported it was true.

Speaker 4 What happened after I reported that was he, he, there were people in her camp who didn't want him to endorse her because he didn't want to seem like a coronation.

Speaker 4 They were confident that she'd be the nominee, and they didn't want it to be the president chose the vice president.

Speaker 4 But he got a lot of heat from the minute I reported that from women close to her who felt differently about it and some women in Congress who said, it would look horrible for you not to endorse her.

Speaker 4 So from the time I report it, I think because I report it till Sunday, he changed his mind and decided, yes, he would endorse her.

Speaker 4 But others, as you know, did not because they wanted to not create the impression that this was just

Speaker 4 an elite

Speaker 4 selection of the new nominee. How did he, I still don't fully understand how he dropped out.
So the media, which had cheerled for him, obviously,

Speaker 4 had stopped,

Speaker 4 not only stopped, they started attacking him. Yeah.
Right. So there's that.
I felt that was a big deal, just as an observer.

Speaker 4 But Biden himself was resolute, at least in public, but also every story you read said in private he was resolute. And then it just seemed to change.
Well, you know, it's, it's the normal thing.

Speaker 4 It's, this happens gradually and then all of a sudden

Speaker 4 So

Speaker 4 I'm very frustrated with our business and with kind of our political media culture that

Speaker 4 for seven years there could be this cover-up of all the major.

Speaker 4 How many years have you been in this business? Since 1987.

Speaker 4 Long time. We're moving toward 40.
Okay. So just to for people.

Speaker 4 I think this is the worst scandal in journalism, American journalism history because

Speaker 4 anyone knew what was happening. The public knew what was happening, and yet the cover-up continued.
And when the cover-up was exploded,

Speaker 4 of

Speaker 4 the client acutie, he spoke to a dead congresswoman. I mean, what more do we need to know?

Speaker 4 A congresswoman who had died, you know what I'm talking about? Yeah. Okay.

Speaker 4 He speaks to a dead congresswoman, and his press secretary says he spoke to her because she was top of mind because he was going to be meeting with her family. That's not forgetting somebody's name.

Speaker 4 That is a loss of acuity, which would disqualify him from being a museum docent. Right.

Speaker 4 Much less having access to the nuclear code.

Speaker 4 So that cover-up goes because

Speaker 4 some affection for Biden, the bullying of his staff, but primarily because of a desire to make sure Donald Trump doesn't win.

Speaker 4 And then when there becomes no choice

Speaker 4 but to say we got to get rid of him now because he's a threat to the Republic because Trump could beat him.

Speaker 4 They turn against him. They never acknowledge their participation as co-conspirators in a seven-year-long cover-up.

Speaker 4 And then the same people get to cover the new candidate and Trump.

Speaker 4 It's staggering to me. Like after weapons of mass destruction, there was some soul searching.
Yes. After the Mueller investigation, there was some,

Speaker 4 not more than 5%, but some

Speaker 4 acknowledgement that

Speaker 4 perhaps the coverage was a little bit off. There's been zero, as I see it, zero soul-searching acknowledgement.

Speaker 4 We wrote story after story about how, well, Trump misspeaks too. And, well, Biden, you know, there are days when he's good.
And there are days, still to this day, there are days when he's fine.

Speaker 4 But we all have seen people in decline. They have good days and bad days.
Of course. They shouldn't be president.

Speaker 4 And that's not a partisan statement. That's just a statement about the rigors of the job.

Speaker 4 But the press turned on him

Speaker 4 and then acted like they had not propped him up for seven years. In one day, in one hour.
And watching my former colleagues on CNN pivot like that. Yeah.
It's incredible. I was, my job, I couldn't.
So

Speaker 4 I was out. I'll say I was out of the country when that happened, which made it even weirder.
to watch your country from the other side of the world and wonder what is going on here.

Speaker 4 And it looked very much like a setup, very much like a setup.

Speaker 4 I think that because they all said the same thing at exactly the same moment. Yeah, I think that they just

Speaker 4 don't think the conspiracy is that discussed. They just all have the exact same orientation and they're bullied in the same way.

Speaker 4 So I don't know that they have to and react to the bullying the same way. So I don't know that they had to discuss it.
I do know that

Speaker 4 when I would talk to White House reporters privately for major news organizations, they would acknowledge Biden, the acuity decline was substantial.

Speaker 4 They saw it. They just were in newsrooms where that was, it was impermissible to say it.
How could you not report? I don't know, but no one did.

Speaker 4 Except for people from places like Newsmax and Fox, no one did.

Speaker 4 I really do wonder how people look back on that because, again, again, they've moved on now. But you know them all very well.
I don't know how they think about this.

Speaker 4 By the way, for people who don't follow this stuff, you know, people who are watching this, I mean, I should just say the obvious, which is you are not just part of the news business, but really at the center of the political news business for, you know, many decades.

Speaker 4 It seems like decades.

Speaker 4 Because I think it was. It was there.

Speaker 4 So you know every single person personally. I mean, I just know they're.
Well, I know a lot of them. You know, there's a bunch of new, new ones.
All right, but I'm a lot of them. I know a lot of them.

Speaker 4 Anyone over 30, you know. So, what do they say? I

Speaker 4 don't understand how they could explain that. You know, the presidency now, but you don't tell your viewers or readers that

Speaker 4 the ones who will offer explanations blame their bosses

Speaker 4 that their editors and their executive producers and their anchors didn't want to hear it

Speaker 4 and that they would say it, and it just didn't become part of the

Speaker 4 coverage. Some of them have said that, but again,

Speaker 4 to me, the failure to acknowledge it, what they did, I won't say it's worse than the original crime, but it's pretty bad. It's pretty bad.

Speaker 4 And of course,

Speaker 4 along with lawfare, it helps Trump extraordinarily because people say sometimes in our business, oh, I trust the American people. They're way ahead of us.
On this one, it's true.

Speaker 4 It's not just a trope.

Speaker 4 American people, including Democrats, they saw what was happening. They saw the clips on social media.

Speaker 4 And that period leading up to the debate, like when he was overseas, when the White House said, oh, this is, what was the word they had for it?

Speaker 4 Cheap fake, that these clips are selectively edited. I say, he talked to a dead congresswoman.
We don't need more examples.

Speaker 4 Sure, are there some Republicans and some red people online who choose bad examples? There are. But we don't need good or bad examples.
His mental acuity decline is obvious.

Speaker 4 And so everybody knew, just to bottom line, everybody who covers politics in Washington, covers the presidency, knew. Of course.
How could you not?

Speaker 4 Now, they might have had a different sense of how bad it was. Right.

Speaker 4 But

Speaker 4 I'll give you an example of the lack of accountability.

Speaker 4 Not only have they not acknowledged their own role, what about the role of the people around the president who to this day say he didn't fail, he didn't decide not to run because he had to acknowledge that his loss of mental acuity made it unlikely he could beat Trump.

Speaker 4 They continue to say say he didn't think he could win or he was going to divide the Democratic Party.

Speaker 4 The people, the story of how they protected him, there's been some piercing of that with foreign leaders saying, you know, anonymously that he had this, Biden had this problem or that problem.

Speaker 4 You had the Wall Street Journal piece, which was actually week T

Speaker 4 about

Speaker 4 mostly Republicans. It was an absurd piece.
Yeah, it was ridiculous.

Speaker 4 But I know many examples, most of which I can't describe because of the terms in which they were shared with me. But Democratic members of Congress knew full well.
Of course.

Speaker 4 And that Wall Street Journal piece, you know, the editors of the Wall Street Journal,

Speaker 4 I'll just say I think are very dishonest, but I know that they are, some of them. But

Speaker 4 that piece was really the only piece in a big, big publication to make the point that, hey, people are talking about his senility.

Speaker 4 But that piece was so watered down that it was like, what was the point of even running that? I'm surprised they spent so much time on it, and that's what they came up with

Speaker 4 but again it helped it helped biden because it was certainly did help biden peace now it hurt the democratic party because if if trump wins history is going to show of course if they'd replaced him sooner with anybody including harris they'd have had a better chance rather than rushing her into this but

Speaker 4 but how there could not be i mean she's not been asked about it she was in the town hall the other day but she's not explained her connection to this cover-up kind of incredible But what was her connection to the cover-up?

Speaker 4 Like, what is the truth? I don't think she was heavily involved with it because that wasn't her responsibility, right? She wasn't in charge of making sure the president's okay.

Speaker 4 Now, you could argue they should have been, but that really is not the role of any vice president, let alone this one.

Speaker 4 Again, he had good days and bad days, and he had good hours of the day and bad hours of the day.

Speaker 4 My guess is when she saw him, most of the time he was fine. But I'm sure, just by the law of averages, I'm sure she saw him when he was not.
Well, she must have known. Yeah.

Speaker 4 I remember when I was a kid and going into this business and hearing people speak derisively of the White House press corps during the 1930s, which covered up the fact supposedly that FDR was in a wheelchair and thinking, you know, how could that, you know, I mean, that's so North Korean.

Speaker 4 Like that could never happen again.

Speaker 4 I've long been a critical critic of the press. I think that

Speaker 4 the degree to which Trump was helped from 15 onward with the press hostility is obvious. But this one really frightens me.
It really frightens me that

Speaker 4 it's beyond just like, you know, North Korea or communist China. It's beyond that.

Speaker 4 It's the fact that it's occurring in a society with alternative media and social media and

Speaker 4 White House briefings. And reporters presumably wanted to make their bones by getting big stories.
No one reported it.

Speaker 4 When it was clear they needed to turn, they just turned against him. No accountability for themselves or for the people in the government who engaged in the cover-up with them.

Speaker 4 I just find it frightening. Not just, it's fun to say it's a big media scandal

Speaker 4 and provocative to say it, but I find it frightening that that could happen in this country now.

Speaker 4 I find it frightening with all the media that we have different from back when other presidents, Kennedy, Roosevelt, et cetera, Wilson, this is now. This is the age of transparency.

Speaker 4 And had he not had a bad debate,

Speaker 4 he'd still be running for president.

Speaker 4 I find it frightening. How did he have, how did that debate happen?

Speaker 4 Well, like, how did there are a lot of Republicans who say it was a setup and there were people who knew he'd do badly and they made him debate to force him out.

Speaker 4 I just don't believe that based on what I know. He was on track to lose.
Okay. And there was no precipitate, there was no intervening event that they saw could turn things around.

Speaker 4 He was on track to lose before that debate? Yeah. He had one path to win, which was to win the three Great Lakes states in Nebraska 2, CD, and he was behind in Pennsylvania.

Speaker 4 I don't remember ever reading that story.

Speaker 4 It also, there seems like there's a lot of pressure not to report what the data show, which is, you know, if a Democratic candidate or president is behind, no one wants to report that. Yeah.

Speaker 4 Is that, do you think that's true? Well, it's true if it's a Democrat. That's what I'm saying.
Oh, yeah. He was on track to lose.
He might have lost all seven Battleground states.

Speaker 4 And he was, and he was, he was, he was in trouble in New Mexico

Speaker 4 and in Virginia and in Minnesota. Not as bad trouble as he was after the debate.
But before the debate, things were very grim. Really? Oh, yeah.

Speaker 4 He had one electoral college path,

Speaker 4 and it was not in state. Again, I just don't remember ever reading that.

Speaker 4 It's true. And not to make it too personal, but I should just say, for those who don't remember, I always thought that you were a liberal Democrat.
I have no idea what your politics are.

Speaker 4 I'm not going to ask you. Not at all.

Speaker 4 I'm a journalist. I'm an old-fashioned journalist.
Okay, so but I just never even, I didn't think of you as any kind of right-wing activist because you weren't.

Speaker 4 But I remember in 2016 when you said shortly before the election, I think Trump's got a pretty good shot of winning. Yeah.
And you, and that was, I think, just like your analysis analytical.

Speaker 4 I covered Trump rallies in 30 states and talked to voters across the country. It was clear he could win.
And he did. Yeah.
So you were right. Yeah.
But you were attacked.

Speaker 4 You were denounced for saying that. Yeah.

Speaker 4 I think covering Trump's really hard. Covering Trump is really hard, even if you want to be fair, because he does say a lot of things that are untrue.
He does break a lot of norms that at least cause

Speaker 4 reasonable people to wonder whether those are good norms or bad. And he doesn't play straight with the

Speaker 4 kind of decorum of

Speaker 4 interactions with the public and the press and January 6th and some of the things he said publicly that are hateful and hurtful. Okay.
Makes him very hard to cover.

Speaker 4 But he's also hard to cover because most of the press covers him in a way that is unfair and that the American people, not everyone, but anyone who doesn't watch MSNBC primetime knows is unfair.

Speaker 4 It's right there with the law fair. It's unequal treatment that's hostile to him.
So covering him is really hard.

Speaker 4 But you should be allowed to analyze the poll numbers. Well, of course.
But also, to me, it's more

Speaker 4 to me. It's It's more, it's more to appreciate that the things that people liked about him, who liked him in 2015 and 2016, are legitimate things,

Speaker 4 that they don't believe Washington stands up for them, that they don't believe they believe there's too much government regulation. They believe that there's no plan to deal with China.

Speaker 4 There were serious things he talked about, that the border needs to be secure. There are serious things he talked about that are

Speaker 4 he talks about them some often almost always in a cartoonish way, but those are those are aspirational things and worries of the american people that other politicians in both parties weren't addressing so you can you can analyze the poll numbers but you can also say as i said in 2011 which is really how i met trump

Speaker 4 he's talking about stuff that people respond to viscerally that aren't being addressed and they're not incidental things they're core things for tens of millions of americans so it wasn't it wasn't to me when people say oh how did you know it was not it was not hard with the election just weeks away kamala harris has only won a single clearly defined policy objective, and that's more abortion.

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Speaker 4 But it's it

Speaker 4 right. Well, I agree with you completely.
And I also wrote a story in Politico

Speaker 4 making some of these points, but I wasn't attacked for it because I was already on the outside.

Speaker 4 You were very, you were the inside. And I just thought it was the response to you was so interesting in 2016 because really the demand was not that,

Speaker 4 you know, you be like a Democratic partisan. The demand was that you just deny observable reality.
Yes. And that's a different thing.

Speaker 4 So I have great empathy for the people who support Trump and who are angry that the establishment media and universities and all these liberal cultural institutions are hostile to them.

Speaker 4 I appreciate, and to see their candidate get four indictments

Speaker 4 that are wholly political, even though some of the underlying actions were wrong, but wholly political indictments. But I also have sympathy for the people of Trump derangement syndrome.

Speaker 4 I get why they think this is the worst thing that could happen to America.

Speaker 4 And I hear it from Democrats all the time who say, Donald Trump being president is not the worst thing that's ever happened in my life politically.

Speaker 4 It's the worst thing that's ever happened in my life.

Speaker 4 I don't want to put myself on a pedestal, but I don't believe there are too many people, forget just journalists.

Speaker 4 I don't think there are a lot of people who have empathy and understanding for both those groups.

Speaker 4 And I think that's the core challenge for the country right now is for all of us to try to understand both groups. But why do you, I mean, you're from Washington, D.C.

Speaker 4 Your father worked at high levels of government.

Speaker 4 You're very much from that. I mean, you're from literally from that culture.
Yeah. And then you spent most of your life in New York.
This one's called the High Priest of Establishment Journalism.

Speaker 4 Well, and that is, I was, I'm 55. I was there, and that is totally accurate.
Yeah. so how do you wind up with empathy for trump voters

Speaker 4 um

Speaker 4 because

Speaker 4 three things one is i covered bill clinton was the first presidential candidate i covered and i went to 46 states with him and listened to people unhappy with the status quo not just the short-term economic pain but the long-term dislocation we've seen since you have

Speaker 4 surveys. Are your kids going to have the same economic future you didn't know?

Speaker 4 Do you understand your place in the world in terms of the economy? Are you confident that you'll have a career that you like?

Speaker 4 Are social changes, is a society changing in ways that are offensive to you or unsettling to you?

Speaker 4 So I saw the importance of getting out of Washington and New York and watching presidential candidates talk to voters and talking to the voters.

Speaker 4 And I saw some people like Bill Clinton and Donald Trump and Ronald Reagan, I put those three ahead of the others, saw the mood of the country and saw that their party was not necessarily addressing everything that needed to be addressed.

Speaker 4 And they did. So that's number one is I just understood the concept of someone speaking against the status quo and the establishment.
Number two,

Speaker 4 I've always seen liberal media bias, even when early in my career, Peter Jennings was my mentor. He saw it too.

Speaker 4 He was ahead of his time in understanding half our potential consumers were conservative.

Speaker 4 And so you have to constantly be questioning whether your news product and your and your analysis is appealing to the entire country and not just the people on the upper west side of Manhattan.

Speaker 4 And then lastly,

Speaker 4 I've always

Speaker 4 been concerned that the,

Speaker 4 how do I explain this? It's like

Speaker 4 you have to be honest as a journalist. You can't just go, not just not go with the upper west side, Washington, D.C.
mentality, but you have to be constantly questioning the assumptions.

Speaker 4 That's core to the job. And so I do that, whether it's politics or not, just is, are we thinking about this right the way? I covered the gaming industry for a little bit and I'm fascinated by it.

Speaker 4 And I think the way we cover the gaming industry in this country is insane. And

Speaker 4 it needs to be different.

Speaker 4 If you look at most coverage of it, it's not. So he'd say it about sports.

Speaker 4 What does that mean?

Speaker 4 I mean, not to get too sidetracked, but I'm interested. What does that mean?

Speaker 4 It's a huge business that's completely unscrutinized.

Speaker 4 Pardon my total ignorance because I hate all of it. Are you talking about gambling or computer games? No, no, no, no.
Well, I could say it about both, but

Speaker 4 I would say it too about social media and about kids on iPads. No, we're just talking about casinos,

Speaker 4 sports betting, gambling.

Speaker 4 How is it covered that you think is?

Speaker 4 Well, it's barely covered. And

Speaker 4 the fact that it's like a regressive, you know, that it hurts poor people.

Speaker 4 The fact that these businesses are are extremely powerful and they're lobbyists and they rarely have rules that are deleterious to their interests.

Speaker 4 And the fact that they create economic opportunity some places that has been successful. But just it's one of the biggest businesses in the world.
And

Speaker 4 you pick up the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, Associated Press, the networks, they're barely covering it.

Speaker 4 And when they do, they're not covering to me, the essence of what it's really like.

Speaker 4 So when I covered it, I got backlash from the people in the business, both in the journalism business covering it and from the gaming industry, because I was coming in and questioning assumptions.

Speaker 4 How as a society are we thinking about this? I don't think we're thinking about it at all. Well, we're not, but we should be.
Both the positive, but also the negative.

Speaker 4 The lives it destroys and the percentage of people's household income that they use on it. I find it insane.
I find it insane.

Speaker 4 So I'm embarrassed that I haven't, again, I don't want to get sidetracked, but since you said that out loud, I'm one of the people who's ignored it.

Speaker 4 And think about how much, think about how much coverage there's, you've ever read in the New York Times about the gaming industry.

Speaker 4 I learned the other day that it's really common for young men in their 20s, recent college graduates, who by definition have no money, most of them,

Speaker 4 to spend a lot on sports gambling. Yes.
It's a huge thing.

Speaker 4 And the recruitment of athletes to, you know, to raise the brand identity of the individual companies. It's a massive business and just uncovered.
And it's, it's massive.

Speaker 4 I forget how big it is, but it's huge. It's like bigger than like Hollywood, something, something, something combined.
It's just really? Oh, yeah, it's huge. It's huge.

Speaker 4 So again, I just always, as a journalist, have said,

Speaker 4 people say Trump can't win. Well, I saw him speak at CPAC in 2011.
That guy could win. And so just going to question.

Speaker 4 They did. Am I misremembering this? You were attacked viciously just for observing that, correct?

Speaker 4 Not in 2011. I was a teenager.
No, no, in 2016. Oh, in 2016.
Yes. Yes, I was attacked vision.
But I'm saying I saw it in 2011 as I started my relationship with Trump.

Speaker 4 I saw him speak at CPAC where, you know, Mitch Daniels and a bunch of potential presidential candidates spoke.

Speaker 4 And I went on TV the next morning and said Trump was the best speaker, not just because of the performance, but he got the best reaction.

Speaker 4 And you may not take him seriously as a presidential candidate, but you need to take what he's running on and talking about seriously.

Speaker 4 And I say always that Donald Trump is in some ways a complicated man, but in some some ways he's simple. If you say nice things about him on television, he likes you.

Speaker 4 So he called me up and invited me over to Trump Tower. And I mean, he wasn't like my best friend, but I talked to him about politics then pretty consistently from 2011 to 2015.

Speaker 4 And part of why I had some access to him was because when people on the networks were interviewing him and talking about him, because he's a grid box office, but mocking the notion that he could win, I took him seriously.

Speaker 4 Incredible. And then took heat for it, obviously, when he actually won.
Big, big heap. Yeah.
Yeah.

Speaker 4 So how just I keep getting sidetracked, my apologies, but

Speaker 4 how exactly did it happen that Biden went from telling the world, telling people around him that he was going to stay in

Speaker 4 with the full support, I think, of his wife and son,

Speaker 4 to announcing that he was not running again?

Speaker 4 The data was very very grim and inarguable. Yeah.

Speaker 4 And he was presented with a lot of it. But Nancy Pelosi, who, as I understand it, has not spoken to him since he got out of the race, as we sit here today.
Really?

Speaker 4 That's what she said, I believe, in an interview I just read.

Speaker 4 She knew where the pressure points were. She's extremely skillful, right?

Speaker 4 She knew.

Speaker 4 what it would take to get him to cry uncle.

Speaker 4 And I'm not sure exactly what that included, included, except more and more governors and members of Congress saying he had to step down, donors saying they would not write a single additional check, right?

Speaker 4 So if you're the incumbent president and your fundraising dries up pretty completely, because he wasn't raising small dollars, right? He was reliant on big checks. Could you stay in the race if

Speaker 4 leading members of your party called for you to resign? Could you stay in the race if

Speaker 4 you had no money to run a campaign and really had to lay off tons of your staff, not be able to afford advertisement, not be able to fly around and do big rallies? Could you stay in? You could.

Speaker 4 But if Nancy Pelosi is saying to you, you will have no money, you will have almost no one supporting your continuing on, donors, celebrities, members of Congress, governors.

Speaker 4 You will lose and you will be blamed in history for having stayed in and lost to Donald Trump. Or we can celebrate you at the convention.

Speaker 4 We can say you're like George Washington and you can salvage your reputation. I think presented with those choices, he didn't have a choice.

Speaker 4 What was Obama's role?

Speaker 4 To talk to Pelosi and Schumer and others, Clyburn and others, about

Speaker 4 how you get him out,

Speaker 4 how you design a process to replace and to maximize the chances of the the party winning

Speaker 4 and

Speaker 4 to

Speaker 4 try not to get his backup,

Speaker 4 right?

Speaker 4 The psychodrama between him and Obama is real. I don't think it is between him and Kamala Harris, but between him and Obama, it's real.

Speaker 4 I remember Hunter Biden, who was my neighbor for many years, telling me more than once when Biden was vice president how much they despised Barack Obama. He despised Barack Obama.

Speaker 4 Well, what he did to Joe Biden in 2016, a man who'd run for president twice, who thought it was his birthright to then be the nominee in 2016, to say, we're going with Hillary Clinton,

Speaker 4 that in the Biden family, that's as bad as it gets. That's as treacherous as it gets.

Speaker 4 And then in 2020, he didn't really support him until he had to

Speaker 4 when it was just him and Bernie.

Speaker 4 So Obama had to worry, and this is why Pelosi was singular. If it hadn't been for Nancy Pelosi, I don't think this would have happened.

Speaker 4 He had to not get Biden's backup. Biden had to see this as

Speaker 4 inevitable,

Speaker 4 but minimizing the embarrassment. And so Obama was very careful to not be, and he doesn't like to be public anyway at this point, but he was careful to not have Biden think that he was engineering it.

Speaker 4 But

Speaker 4 he was strategizing about how do we put the pressure on him publicly and privately, and how do we end up with the strongest possible nominee? Boy, this is not a sentimental group, I've noticed.

Speaker 4 I mean, loyalty, personal affection, long-lasting friendship, assuming that even exists in that world, none of them play any role in any of this.

Speaker 4 I think there's some affection between Bill Clinton and Joe Biden. I'm sure.
So there's some there. I mean, this is high-stakes politics.
I don't think

Speaker 4 I don't think that Nancy Pelosi,

Speaker 4 I don't know this from her, so I'm speculating based on just observing her and knowing her a little bit. I don't think that she took pleasure in this.
I think she felt bad for him.

Speaker 4 So in that sense, I think there was some humanity to it. There was just a problem that had to be solved.

Speaker 4 They were trying to switch from zero chance to win to a decent chance to win. And so

Speaker 4 I don't know that there's room for sentimentality that would stand in the way of that. So they call on her to bring the dog to the vet to put him down.
Well, they didn't really call on her.

Speaker 4 She stepped up because she saw in Clyburn and

Speaker 4 Jeffries and Schumer and Obama and Clinton, both Clintons. She didn't see sufficient effort.
And the clock was ticking. Did you see? I just, I know I'm fixated on this, but I am fixated on it.

Speaker 4 Did you see prior to June of this year, any story in any major news outlet saying, hey, Joe Biden's going to lose?

Speaker 4 Well,

Speaker 4 in my own work, yeah. Okay.

Speaker 4 You've been exiled from that world. I mean, no, because they, they couldn't.

Speaker 4 I mean, you saw stories in this before before they agreed to debate, you saw stories that said his fundraising was a real problem.

Speaker 4 You saw stories that said he was having, you know, problems in like New Hampshire and Virginia and New Mexico and Minnesota. You saw stories saying

Speaker 4 he was having problems with over the Israel war. You even saw the press covering immigration like they'd never covered it before, not the way they would if it were on the other foot.

Speaker 4 You saw the coverage of inflation. Yeah, you saw the coverage.

Speaker 4 Part of why he had to agree to the debate was the coverage was,

Speaker 4 they turned on him to extent, not to the extent they were trying to drive him out of the race, except for a few calmness. But yeah, the coverage of Biden from February or so onward was quite negative.

Speaker 4 So we just got back from a month on the road, coast to coast and everywhere in between 16 cities in 30 days and I've got to say almost everyone on our team looked suspiciously well rested every morning as we got back on the plane.

Speaker 4 It turns out most of them are using a product called Sambrosa which is one of the sponsors of our tour.

Speaker 4 Sambrosa blends antihistamine with a syrup of herbs and honey and is designed to help you sleep well waking up feeling refreshed and revitalized and based on the sunny cheerful faces of the people I work with it works.

Speaker 4 It's inexpensive. It's less than 50 cents a night.
And we know the people who own the company and they are great people. They are faithful people.

Speaker 4 And they are about the happiest family we've ever run across. The product Sambrosa has a ton of five-star reviews.
You can check it out on their website, sambrosa.com.

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Speaker 4 Dashing through the store, Dave's looking for a gift. One you can't ignore, but not the socks he picks.
I know, I'm putting them back. Hey, Dave, here's a tip.
Put scratchers on your list.

Speaker 4 Oh, scratchers. Good idea.
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Speaker 4 What's the underlying illness that he suffers from? No idea.

Speaker 4 How crazy is that that a nation on the cusp of nuclear war, which we are to this day,

Speaker 4 could have a commander-in-chief suffering from some illness and nobody demands to

Speaker 4 find out what it is? That's crazy. And

Speaker 4 the fact that, I mean, again, this goes to the press course

Speaker 4 part of the conspiracy. His doctor was never made available to answer questions.
That is stupid. They had a Parkinson specialist come in.

Speaker 4 Yeah, although the facts on that are still a bit murky, but they're totally murky. Yeah, but

Speaker 4 how they could explain

Speaker 4 to any White House reporter's satisfaction why they weren't given access to the president's doctor, I can't understand.

Speaker 4 It just should have been an alarm bell, and they should have brought the briefing room to a halt. We demand to talk to the president's doctor as we've talked to past president's doctors.

Speaker 4 When this president spoke to a dead congresswoman, we need to access the president's doctor.

Speaker 4 And just the way the stiff leg walking and everything, just you turn the sound off, and you could could tell that there was a problem.

Speaker 4 And the American people knew it. And that's why, you know, I forget the exact numbers, but like 70% said he shouldn't be running.
You know, it's like there's a reason why

Speaker 4 the press had to say the emperor looked fantastic in his new clothes, not,

Speaker 4 you know, I like the shirt, but I don't like the pants. They had to be all in on the emperor looked fantastic because

Speaker 4 they couldn't show any weakness. I like the shirt, but not the pants.
Exactly. They couldn't show any weakness.
Why?

Speaker 4 Because they couldn't do anything to be accused of helping Trump win.

Speaker 4 It's not my imagination.

Speaker 4 The press has always obviously been liberal, always been sympathetic to Democrats, but this posture of like total denial, of absolute big lie deception, that's a new thing. It's a new thing.

Speaker 4 It's covering Trump's heart.

Speaker 4 And just as people on the right, I'll say say again,

Speaker 4 are revolted by

Speaker 4 the slanted press coverage, the lawfare,

Speaker 4 the unequal treatment, I think people on the left have proper grievance about the things Trump has done that are, again, antithetical to a lot of what America stands for.

Speaker 4 They're right about that. He's hard to cover.

Speaker 4 But the way that most of the press has chosen to deal with it is to just focus on the negative aspects of Trump and disregard the grievances of the other side.

Speaker 4 But honesty, just, I mean, even leaving aside the ideology or how you think Trump fits into American history, just like, I don't know, if it's raining out, you can't say it's sunny out because that's lying.

Speaker 4 I agree. But, but, but they,

Speaker 4 they, they're

Speaker 4 besides liberal media bias and besides just the emotional Trump derangement syndrome, they've decided that January 11th and Stormy Daniels and the documents at Mar-a-Lago and his comments about immigrants are

Speaker 4 more

Speaker 4 important,

Speaker 4 are so important that they have to cover those to the exclusion of Americans being killed by people in the country illegally. That's just what they've decided.

Speaker 4 Is there any sense from within those big media organizations that they've committed suicide?

Speaker 4 No.

Speaker 4 Their cultural, personal, institutional orientation is towards covering the news for half the country.

Speaker 4 That's what they do. But as a business, it's like they've destroyed themselves.
That's my read on it anyway. And I work for all those people.

Speaker 4 I mean, the New York Times has created Wordle and recipes, so they haven't destroyed themselves.

Speaker 4 There's always going to be a demand for news. And,

Speaker 4 you know, they all adapted like, you know, as you and I discussed, it adapted way too late. But

Speaker 4 it's an industry in crisis, but some of the legacy players are finding their way towards digital survival. So I don't think they're all going to disappear.
And I think they'll

Speaker 4 the weaker ones, CBS, I think NB, I mean, CBS is like almost done.

Speaker 4 I think NBC, CNN, I don't think they have bright futures, but I could be wrong.

Speaker 4 They'll have to, you know, very late in the game, adapt to digital sales and different models besides people paying for subscriptions, people paying for advertising, or cable systems paying for carriage.

Speaker 4 They'll have to find different sources of revenue and they'll have to make products that appeal to enough audiences that

Speaker 4 there's this mass there. But somebody's got to fill the assigned, the intended role of the media, which is to inform the public about things,

Speaker 4 factual things.

Speaker 4 Yeah.

Speaker 4 It's a crisis, not just a crisis in America. Obviously, other countries have this problem, but there is a market for news.
People do want news. You have to have it.
Yeah. So, so we just need

Speaker 4 whether it's legacy places that find their way or new places like what you're doing, what I'm doing, that

Speaker 4 say we're going to make money off of quality content that some number of people like, and we're going to find business models that work.

Speaker 4 And we're not going to be wedded to the old business models, which is just not going to support journalism. How long were you at ABC? From 87 to 2007.

Speaker 4 A long time. How many years is that? That's about 20-ish years now.
It's 97, 2007.

Speaker 4 Did you ever think that you would be part of independent media? I never did. I mean, I loved working for a big, powerful, you know, one of the most powerful news organizations in the world.

Speaker 4 And I assumed I always would.

Speaker 4 And I still think there's some value in it. I mean, you and I both now do things for ourselves and with our small merry bands that before 17 people would have been working on.

Speaker 4 We never would have had to think about it.

Speaker 4 But it's a small price to pay to not be freed from the downsides of being, you know, in an institution where you can't do what you think's right, you know, some of the time at least, or best, not necessarily right, but best.

Speaker 4 Like what

Speaker 4 looking back, like, can you give examples of things that you couldn't do that you think you should have been allowed to do?

Speaker 4 File more Freedom of Information Act requests, even if they were going to annoy people we covered.

Speaker 4 So if somebody said, well, we're trying to book that person as a guest, so please don't file that Freedom of Information Act request. That happened a few times.
Yeah.

Speaker 4 Now, there was another equity involved for the organization, right? They wanted a booking more than my fishing expedition on a FOIA.

Speaker 4 But

Speaker 4 I will say that that's an example. I could give a few others, but I was blessed when I worked for ABC, when I worked for Time Magazine, when I worked for Bloomberg.

Speaker 4 I was blessed with a fair amount of autonomy. So I was never told by corporate, the corporate side what to say.
I was rarely told don't pursue something because of another equity.

Speaker 4 I gave you one of the examples, but it's more just,

Speaker 4 you know, you know, putting on a TV show at a major network, like 200 people are touching the product, right? It's just, it's just a hard bureaucracy to

Speaker 4 be super creative in, but it also produces, you know, from a production point of view, quality stuff.

Speaker 4 That's a trade-off.

Speaker 4 I'm not imagining, without getting into it, this is my read. You may disagree.
I think in the end, you were very severely punished for demanding to think for yourself.

Speaker 4 That's my view of it, but I don't think you're the only one who was.

Speaker 4 It did seem like a systematic cleansing of anybody in media. Not even, it wasn't even a left-right divide.
It was like,

Speaker 4 I felt it was a testosterone divide, but it was people are like, no, no, no.

Speaker 4 I think this is right. I'm going to pursue it.
Those people are all gone. I just have noticed.
Well,

Speaker 4 I mean, it depends on the category. I think people, particularly people who challenge the left, I think are more susceptible to that.

Speaker 4 I mean,

Speaker 4 Rachel Maddow says stuff that's out there. She criticizes her own network sometimes.
She pursues stories. She's interested.
She has a lot of power and autonomy.

Speaker 4 And there are other examples.

Speaker 4 To her credit. I've always, I disagree with everything Rachel Maddow says, but I have always admired that about her.

Speaker 4 But she's kind of the exception. There are others, but she's one of the exceptions that proves the rule.

Speaker 4 Most people don't want to cross the orthodoxy or their corporate bosses.

Speaker 4 And in that sense, they're not so different than working for J.P. Morgan Chase or working for Boeing.

Speaker 4 There's not a lot of stepping out of line.

Speaker 4 The difference is, of course, to state the obvious, that we're in a journalist or in a business of truth-telling and challenging powerful interests and holding powerful interests accountable to the public interest.

Speaker 4 And sometimes that has to be, you know, either your own employer or sometimes it's liberal Democrats. Well, it's got to be that way, though.
It's inherent.

Speaker 4 Like, that's why we have First Amendment protection. Like, the system is set up with a free press at the, really at the center of the enterprise, in my opinion.

Speaker 4 So, where, where are we five years, 10 years from now?

Speaker 4 I thought there was going to be more joking around in this episode.

Speaker 4 No, I'm just interested.

Speaker 4 The grimmest episode of your program ever.

Speaker 4 Let's play paper football or something to shake up the mood. I mean, I'm a big believer in finding consumers who want quality and that that can happen independent of

Speaker 4 ideology.

Speaker 4 You know, my new platform, you know, we've not started to make a ton of money yet, but it explicitly tries to appeal to people, not just centrists, moderates, and independents, but people on the left and the right.

Speaker 4 And I'm hoping that there is a market for that that is different than the conventional wisdom, which is the only way to make money is to go hard, left, hard. Of course, right.
Be the New York Times.

Speaker 4 Yeah.

Speaker 4 But how does does it work?

Speaker 4 We bring people on who are willing to talk about the country in a way that's not politics of personal destruction. I would say our model is peace, love, and understanding.

Speaker 4 And then we open it up to citizens from across the country. And so far, organically, Democrats, Republicans, Trump supporters, Trump enemies all come on and they all talk.

Speaker 4 And they're supposed to talk in a way that is respectful. And if somebody's disagreeing with you, I say learn from them rather than say, this platform is too pro-Trump.

Speaker 4 Well, this is your opportunity to hear from pro-Trump people or

Speaker 4 this platform is too pro-Harris. Listen to them talk.

Speaker 4 And that almost doesn't exist in America. No, it doesn't.
What's the business model for that?

Speaker 4 Well, it's a platform that's not just about politics. It's eventually we're going to expand to sports and music and writers.
It's called two-way.

Speaker 4 All communication, almost all communication is one-way, right? It's you talking or writing a sub stack or writing a book or cable news. We bring people together with the people they want to hear from.

Speaker 4 And so

Speaker 4 if you get the best parenting experts in the world or NFL quarterbacks or great musicians that people are super fans of, sponsorships, payments, super fan payments

Speaker 4 that are higher than what they pay for a normal access through live video. And then eventually the ability to be the place to people come for two-way conversations.

Speaker 4 But in politics, it has the additional element of all voices under one roof. And I have so hardened when people say,

Speaker 4 liberals will say, I understand why people are for Trump more than I ever have.

Speaker 4 The other day we had on, just by coincidence, we didn't book them, two young black men both live in Manhattan or live in New York City, both of whom explained extraordinarily well why they're for Trump and why they don't like the Democratic Party.

Speaker 4 And

Speaker 4 they were listened to respectfully and liberals could ask them questions. That just doesn't exist anywhere.
No, it doesn't.

Speaker 4 I got to say that's consistent with my personal experience of black men specifically. Not that I'm around black men all the time, but actually fairly regularly.
Yeah.

Speaker 4 Don't know that many black men who are Republicans, but I know zero black men who are liberals. Yeah.
Not one. I can't remember the last time I met one.
Yeah.

Speaker 4 Is that that seems like a trend?

Speaker 4 If the anecdotal is even close to true, Trump will break the record among support from black men. I mean, he'll smash it if the anecdotal is close to true.
It's just, it's all over social media.

Speaker 4 It's all over my platform. It's all over every story I hear.
And part of it, you know, I'll give you a couple of elements of this that I think is important.

Speaker 4 Part of it is Trump has always had appeal with kind of a macho, rich, pretty white thing. Yeah.
Has that. But it's also, you know, this example of biased coverage.
The press says when Trump says

Speaker 4 some young black men identify with him and their parents because he's been persecuted. The press says that's racist.

Speaker 4 My experience, it's just true. They get the fact that the legal system comes after people unfairly.
And if it can happen to Trump, it can happen to them.

Speaker 4 And it has happened to them and their family and their communities. And then lastly,

Speaker 4 the failure of liberals to make life in cities for poor kids better is also a massive scandal.

Speaker 4 Another scandal is that the Republican Party hasn't done anything to capitalize on it and create competition to be mayors of these cities. For sure.

Speaker 4 But when Trump says, I'm for criminal justice reform and I'm for fixing schools and I'm for creating more economic opportunity, he did criminal justice reform.

Speaker 4 The other stuff, you know, his record is spotty, but

Speaker 4 he's saying, as he said in 2016, when people mocked him, what do you have to lose? These young black men say, the Democratic Party offers nothing to me.

Speaker 4 Trump might offer something to me, and he's done criminal justice reform.

Speaker 4 I think, again, you could be the most partisan Democrat in the world. If you can defend the performance of the Democratic Party to helping young black men, good luck.
But

Speaker 4 I agree with everything that you've said, but what's interesting is that black

Speaker 4 voters, including black men, are not just like part of the Democratic coalition. They're the basis of the party's moral authority.

Speaker 4 After black women, they're number two in terms of

Speaker 4 degree of support. Right.
But in terms of the story that Democrats tell themselves about

Speaker 4 why they're right and why they're better than their opponents, it's all about black people. We've saved black people.

Speaker 4 And so how do they, like, what's it like if you're a Democratic Party, if you're Ron Clain and all of a sudden all the black guys are against you and for Trump? That must be mind-blowing.

Speaker 4 Well, of all the sort of canary in the coal mine.

Speaker 4 of those who believe, as some of my sources in both parties do, that Harris is about to lose and maybe somewhat decisively, she's spending three days, maybe four days at the end of the campaign, spending the majority of her time courting black men.

Speaker 4 That's mind-blowing. So, what do they say? They say

Speaker 4 they're a little bit in denial about the causes of it, but they're not in denial about how big a problem is.

Speaker 4 Again, testament to when have you seen a Democratic presidential candidate with 20 days to go spending her time day after day courting black men?

Speaker 4 But it's just weird because the one thing that everyone on planet Earth knew about Donald Trump was that he was a racist.

Speaker 4 that's the one i mean that line was i mean that was the summary of trump so i had a i had a black woman who's who's lives in new york also who came on my platform the other day and when she was confronted i i connected her to an older black gentleman who's a harris supporter and he said how can you support the man who

Speaker 4 led the birther movement? How can you support the man who denied knowing who David Duke was? And she said, how about Joe Biden?

Speaker 4 He's of that generation too, hanging around with Strom Thurmond, supporting the crime bill.

Speaker 4 You know, her view was Joe Biden's got a racist past, too.

Speaker 4 I'm not going to decide who to vote for based on allegations about who's a bigger racist.

Speaker 4 It's just interesting of all the candidates in the history of American politics for Donald Trump

Speaker 4 to increase the share of the black vote in his family. And the Hispanic vote.
Well, big time in that way.

Speaker 4 And again, the liberal press would say, how could Hispanics support a guy who's been so racist in his rhetoric about the border?

Speaker 4 And of course, as you know, we're talking about people who've came here legally and don't like to be lumped in with people

Speaker 4 who support more open border.

Speaker 4 Or even people who came here legally and benefit illegally,

Speaker 4 who benefit from the 86 amnesty, for example. Correct.
And also people who think bacon costs too much. Yeah.
Well, exactly. Yeah.

Speaker 4 Amazing. So why did you said at the outset that

Speaker 4 everyone's telling us this is going to be an extraordinarily close election? You don't believe that. Well, it might be.

Speaker 4 I just think it's not a foregone conclusion because I think seven battleground states, six or maybe all seven could go to one candidate. It could.

Speaker 4 In other words, if one of them wins the seven states or six of seven narrowly, by our recent standards, that would be an electoral college landslide. And I think that could happen.

Speaker 4 I think whatever dynamics exist, well, there'll be some variation state to state. But if Trump won all seven, I wouldn't be surprised.
If she won all seven, I wouldn't be surprised.

Speaker 4 And if that happens, it's not going to be close.

Speaker 4 I was talking to a member of Congress

Speaker 4 just a few hours ago who said, I'm totally convinced this election will not be called within a week of election day. Will not be.
Not be. Yeah.
I mean, if it's close, it won't be.

Speaker 4 There'll be litigation and there'll be, you know, all the normal second guessing. Our elections are decentralized and really messy.

Speaker 4 And although there were efforts to fix that after 2000, it's just the American way.

Speaker 4 And in some of these states, like in Pennsylvania, the state gives incredible deference to counties to figure out how they want to run things. It's a commonwealth.
Yeah.

Speaker 4 And I think there's a real equal protection questions. We saw that in Florida in 2000.

Speaker 4 Like, is it fair to one county compared to another county or the state of Florida compared to the other states that they count differently?

Speaker 4 It's got political implications that are messy, but it's a great 10th Amendment question. So in what sense do they count differently?

Speaker 4 You know, when you can start counting different types types of ballots and what the rules are for accepting ballots that have errors in them.

Speaker 4 You know, like if one county says, well, they said 2023, but they meant 2024, we're going to count that because we know who cares what the outside address is like.

Speaker 4 One county counts that and the other doesn't. Is that fair to the voters? You know, is that equal protection?

Speaker 4 And even if the rules aren't different, just as a matter of course,

Speaker 4 say,

Speaker 4 well, in this county, they stopped counting at midnight because the election supervisor said, We have too many votes to count. We're going to go home.
And in this county, they kept counting.

Speaker 4 And so now, is there some chain of custody question in the county where the people went home and said they'll come back in at nine o'clock? We just don't have uniform rules.

Speaker 4 That's just the way America is. So, I mean, I would say my base case, unlike everybody else's, my base case is we'll know by the next day because I think more likely than not, it won't be close.

Speaker 4 But if your person's right, a week would be delightful if it was only a week. It could be significantly longer.
Because once litigation starts,

Speaker 4 it never stops. And this time, the Democrats are as lawyered up as the Republicans.
In 2020, the Bush campaign said, we're only going to do Florida. I'm sorry, in 2000.

Speaker 4 They said, we're only going to do Florida. We think there's stuff in New Mexico we could do.
There's stuff in a few other states. They said, no, we're just, and the Gore people went along with that.

Speaker 4 That won't happen this time. All seven states will be litigated if

Speaker 4 the

Speaker 4 recap those states are.

Speaker 4 The recap the states, there's the three Great Lakes states,

Speaker 4 Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. And then the four Sunbelt states, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona.
And the state where Las Vegas is that I can't pronounce correctly, so I never do.

Speaker 4 It's Nevada. Like Vlad.
And it's Nevada. And in the last, say, 30 years, I grew up going to Nevada.
Yeah. And we had a house in Nevada and everyone called it that.

Speaker 4 And now they will yell at you for calling it that. They've renamed it.
I have a a mental block about it. I say it wrong every time, even though I think I'm saying it right.
They're so judgy about it.

Speaker 4 They are very judgy. That's why I don't even risk saying I call it the Silver State or the state where Las Vegas is.
Harry Reid's old state. Harry Reid's old state.

Speaker 4 Home and McCarran Airport, Clark County. Nothing you can say about it.
Reno in the north.

Speaker 4 So can we just go through those really quick? Yeah. Sure.
And love to get your view of where the race is. And let's just start with Nevada.
Yeah.

Speaker 4 It's the hardest one.

Speaker 4 The Trump people think they're going to win it, and the Democrats think they're going to win it.

Speaker 4 Abortion, unions, the ghost of Harry Reid, which they still cite. So I would say there's consensus amongst my sources that of the seven states,

Speaker 4 it's Harris's best.

Speaker 4 But I wouldn't be surprised if Trump won it. Economy is horrible.
Inflation's been horrible. Housing's horrible.

Speaker 4 He's got, of course, a presence in Clark County, a lot of rural vote. So

Speaker 4 it's her best of the seven. Well, he's taken Elco.
We know that. Yes.
Elco is.

Speaker 4 But the change in, you know, Clark County is very, very heavily Hispanic now. Yeah.

Speaker 4 And the change in voting patterns of Hispanic voters, or at least what we think is the change, that's kind of what they're banking on. They are.
And they're banking on the economy. And she's not,

Speaker 4 she's a Westerner, right? But people there don't like Californians, you know, typically there's a good reason. Yeah.

Speaker 4 So, again,

Speaker 4 I think it's right that it's his least likely of the seven, but

Speaker 4 there are reasons to think he could win it. And,

Speaker 4 you know, the biggest thing she has going for is probably is the unions. Yeah.
And

Speaker 4 whether that's a union and a location where the gap between the leadership and the rank and file is smaller. There's a reason to believe that she'll.
you know, she'll do well.

Speaker 4 Unite here and the

Speaker 4 big casino workers' unions.

Speaker 4 So I would say, again, her best state, but a state Trump can still win. Okay.

Speaker 4 Let's move. New Mexico? No, Arizona.
New Mexico is blue.

Speaker 4 Arizona is probably Trump's best of the seven.

Speaker 4 If there's a state she'll give up on, and I don't think she will because she's got so much money and there's only seven and she's got to fly out with it. Can I ask you to pause?

Speaker 4 Just can you summarize where the money stands as of right now?

Speaker 4 Relative. So originally,

Speaker 4 her money advantage, the Democrats' money advantage early on when Trump was having trouble raising money was significant. Then they had a money advantage, but not dispositive.

Speaker 4 It's now potentially dispositive.

Speaker 4 Not so much for the ads, although that matters too, but for organizing. She just, she has, she's raised a billion dollars since she got in the race.
That's extraordinary.

Speaker 4 And that doesn't include like the outside money. That's not directly tied up.
She's raised a billion dollars since she got in the race.

Speaker 4 She's raised more for her campaign and for the party committees that she controls than Trump has raised the whole campaign. So

Speaker 4 typically when you're at race, as Trump said in 16, they have enough to win. They won't have as much money, but they'll have enough to win.
It may be he doesn't.

Speaker 4 I'm not saying for sure, but her financial advantage over the last three weeks is considerable. Where's all that money coming from?

Speaker 4 Grassroots and rich people. One of the biggest mysteries in politics for the last 20 years has been Democrats' capacity to raise big money online compared to Republicans.

Speaker 4 Jamie Harrison, who's now chair of the Democratic Party, ran against Lindsey Graham in South Carolina. No chance to win.
Not a particularly good candidate. Nice guy, but not, you know, not

Speaker 4 somebody people thought, I'll give money because I'll be president someday. He raised like $110 million.

Speaker 4 That's more than Marco Rubio, who should be a good web fundraiser, social media fundraiser, raised when he ran for president. They just are great at raising money from small dollar donors.

Speaker 4 Part of it was they started earlier with the thing, Act Blue, but it doesn't explain it. And I talk to people about it all the time.
I can't explain it.

Speaker 4 But that's a big part of why Trump's being outraged. And if they hadn't kept indicting him, he'd be even more disparate.
And then there's people writing big checks.

Speaker 4 Wait, if they hadn't kept indicting him, he wouldn't have raised as much money.

Speaker 4 Trump raised a lot of his online money in the wake of all the legal stuff, like literally on the days of indictments, the days of bookings, court dates.

Speaker 4 That was a great equalizer for him to raise more money.

Speaker 4 But he's badly outraised. But again, I don't think it's dispositive.

Speaker 4 It might be dispositive, but I don't think it will be. I think Trump has just enough.
And the Democratic Party has rich people. So does the Republican Party.
The big disparity is not the rich people.

Speaker 4 The big disparity is the small dollars.

Speaker 4 There's some disparity, right? There's three kinds of money. There's small dollars, social media and online.
There's bundlers, people writing checks of $3,900 or whatever it is now.

Speaker 4 And then there's people writing super PAC checks for

Speaker 4 10 million or

Speaker 4 less.

Speaker 4 Trump

Speaker 4 is doing,

Speaker 4 is, I think, being outraised in all three categories is my guess. But I think the biggest discrepancy is the one that's the most valuable, which is the low dollars because

Speaker 4 people can continue to give to you.

Speaker 4 And for that money, the Harris campaign guess gets what? More TV ads, more digital ads, more field organizers, more offices, more get-out-the-vote operations,

Speaker 4 more of

Speaker 4 more lawn signs,

Speaker 4 and more surrogate travel, you know, just more of all the stuff you can spend money on. And again,

Speaker 4 no one's criticizing their operation in terms of how they're going about turning people out, voting early, voting by mail, and then on election day, getting people to polls their Their team, led by the woman who's running the campaign, Jenna Mally Dillon, who's an organizer by trade,

Speaker 4 that's an advantage. So in other words, more money spent wisely.
It's a big advantage.

Speaker 4 So you think Trump probably does have an advantage in Arizona? Yes.

Speaker 4 Just as the silver state is her best of the seven, my sources agree that Arizona is his best of the seven. All right, let's move east.

Speaker 4 Georgia

Speaker 4 is a it's a it's a tougher one.

Speaker 4 Trump is ahead. Trump is favored.
I think Georgia will will will be

Speaker 4 would be the fifth or sixth state she won if she's doing really well. In other words, if she wins Georgia, it means she's going to win

Speaker 4 all the Great Lakes states and probably

Speaker 4 the silver state as well.

Speaker 4 So

Speaker 4 it's probably Trump's third best of them, probably.

Speaker 4 And I'd make him the favorite there. And my Democratic sources today would make him the favorite there as well.

Speaker 4 There is a reality of Democratic politics in southern states, which is if you can increase the percentage of the vote that comes from black vote, which is called the contribution to the vote.

Speaker 4 So what percentage of the number of people who vote are black,

Speaker 4 and she can get her numbers back up to where Democrats typically are, two big ifs, she'll win.

Speaker 4 But Trump is doing well with the young black men there. And, you know, the normal way he wins states, running up in exurbs in rural areas.

Speaker 4 All of the seven states have a pro-choice energy. In the two western states, there's ballot measures that will help there.
There aren't

Speaker 4 in the five others, but Georgia, you know, the Atlanta metro area is very pro-choice, a lot of suburban women.

Speaker 4 So, some combination of her swelling black vote, holding her own with black vote, and suburban voters, particularly women. She could win it, but Trump is the favorite there.

Speaker 4 Okay, so we've named three so far. North Carolina.

Speaker 4 It's funny, the vice president herself, I'm told, and a lot of her aides have been very bullish on North Carolina as the linchpin for replacing Pennsylvania if they lose Pennsylvania.

Speaker 4 I have one Republican source who I trust immensely regarding North Carolina who says no way Trump loses it. So the storm is a variable.

Speaker 4 No way to know who that helps or hurt. The governor's race is a bit of a variable.

Speaker 4 But my sources now, I trust the ones who say Trump is likely to win North Carolina, but vice presidents put a ton of time in there, and I think she'll continue to because they need a hedge against losing Pennsylvania.

Speaker 4 Now, Pennsylvania has more electoral votes. So if it's just a swap, if Trump wins the three Sunbelt states and Pennsylvania and she wins North Carolina, Wisconsin and

Speaker 4 Michigan, she loses.

Speaker 4 So

Speaker 4 if she wins Michigan and Wisconsin and North Carolina, but loses Pennsylvania, she needs one of the other three Sunbelt states. But North Carolina is the largest

Speaker 4 and same historias, the same number, but that's the kind of linchpin for them. So that's the biggest mystery.

Speaker 4 Democrats are very bullish on it. Republicans believe that it'll be Trump's in the end.
Interesting.

Speaker 4 What about Wisconsin?

Speaker 4 Was considered her best of the seven until she started to slip there in the last couple weeks. And it's always been a close state.

Speaker 4 Trump had his convention there, a lot of rural vote there, a lot of the social issues cut for Trump there, less pro-choice state than some of the others.

Speaker 4 So I would say if you take the combination of my sources, it's a slight favorite to Harris. But if Trump's

Speaker 4 running the rest of the table, he'll win Wisconsin. I thought the whole point of Tim Walls was to shore up support in a place like Wisconsin.
Running mates really don't make a difference.

Speaker 4 They just don't. As long as you pick someone who the public says is ready to be president, it's really very marginal.

Speaker 4 That leaves Michigan. Michigan.

Speaker 4 So it's a little bit of a cross current there because it's kind of the bluest of the seven states.

Speaker 4 But she's got a problem with labor. She's got a problem with black men.
She's got a problem with union, with Arab American and Muslim American voters.

Speaker 4 And she's not gone there until recently, just the last couple of days, and done the things that the locals there demand.

Speaker 4 Like the local Democrats say you have to go to union halls, you have to be doing, you know, black barbershops, you have to be figuring out how to make peace with the Arab American and Muslim Americans.

Speaker 4 So she's done those things the last few days.

Speaker 4 I would say

Speaker 4 it's a must-win for her. It's not a must-win for Trump.
But I'd make it at this point,

Speaker 4 just like in Wisconsin, a mild favorite.

Speaker 4 And finally, Pennsylvania. Yeah.
So it is said the winner of Pennsylvania will win. It's said by everyone all the time.
Yeah, it's almost certainly true.

Speaker 4 I'm going to do a two-hour show called It's All About Pennsylvania because it sort of is. Now, I say Trump can win without Pennsylvania and she can win without Pennsylvania.
And it's not far-fetched.

Speaker 4 They both have reasonable paths without it. So people shouldn't say it's all about it.

Speaker 4 But certainly the winner of Pennsylvania, as a matter of demographics and electoral college math, is in the driver's seat.

Speaker 4 The other person has

Speaker 4 kind of has to

Speaker 4 circumvent conventional wisdom about where these states are to make up for the loss of Pennsylvania. And Trump is ahead and he's been ahead for a while.
Now, ahead within the margin of error.

Speaker 4 But if you're consistently ahead, even if it's in the margin of error, you know, no one thinks these states are going to be one by seven points. So she's got demographic problems there.

Speaker 4 Changing her position on fracking was absolutely essential.

Speaker 4 Whether people believed it or not, she couldn't have won being against fracking. It's not as big a deal throughout the state as people think, but in a partisan state, it's a very big deal.

Speaker 4 So I make Trump the favorite there, as do most of my Democratic sources, but she's spending an unprecedented amount of money. She'll continue to work it there as a Democratic governor.

Speaker 4 It has two Democratic senators.

Speaker 4 It's more of a blue state in terms of statewide office than a red state.

Speaker 4 Trump won won it once and lost it once, but he's showing strength there with white working class voters, with older voters, with black men, with the Hispanic suburbs around Philly. So

Speaker 4 that's a place, because Biden was born in Pennsylvania and so associated with it, that's a place where trading out Biden for Harris was probably a downgrade for them. That

Speaker 4 Biden, you know, at least on paper, had a better chance than she does. Well, he's, of course, a loyal son of Pennsylvania.
Yeah, he had his own problems.

Speaker 4 They've also not been a super big state about electing women to statewide office compared to some other states for whatever reason.

Speaker 4 And she's a California liberal.

Speaker 4 One of the things I don't think we've discussed in our brief talk so far is

Speaker 4 she's really liberal, right? She's really liberal. She's culturally liberal.
She's economically liberal. And she's not done a sister soldier.

Speaker 4 She's not fleshed out a portrait of who she is, except for saying she's a capitalist in a way that has resonated with a lot of these undecided voters.

Speaker 4 And you see that in Pennsylvania as much as anywhere else. They just see her for what she is, and that's not really what Pennsylvania is.
Their governor is a pretty moderate Democrat.

Speaker 4 And as we did say at the outset, you said she hasn't really, I mean, if I'm Kamala Harris and I'm from San Francisco by way of Montreal, I'm going to make some effort to convince people I'm not as liberal as they think I am.

Speaker 4 She hasn't done a ton of that.

Speaker 4 Well,

Speaker 4 she's done small things on the margins and not

Speaker 4 put them in sharp relief so that everybody would hear them. Because again,

Speaker 4 she's cautious and

Speaker 4 indecisive. So

Speaker 4 she really hasn't. And

Speaker 4 time's short. And of course, anything she does now will be seen by some voters as crazy.
Of course.

Speaker 4 What's the spread between the publicly available polls and the so-called internal polling of the campaigns? Like, how different are those numbers?

Speaker 4 Depends on which apple and which orange you're comparing. But I would say

Speaker 4 it's just like a back of the envelope super rough thing.

Speaker 4 Trump, like, you know, two points stronger in a lot of the private polls, not in every state, but in some of the states than in the public polls. What accounts for that?

Speaker 4 The public polls are done on the cheap. And of all the ways newsrooms have cut back, the polling budgets take a big hit, right?

Speaker 4 So a poll is only good if likely voters, if you know who a likely voter is. That's right.

Speaker 4 And the simplest explanation is if you say, I want my poll to have 40% Democrats, okay?

Speaker 4 Because that's what I think the electorate is going to be. So I think a poll that's good, that has likely voters, 40% of my respondents are going to be Democrats.

Speaker 4 So which Democrats are going to fill the slots? Because you're under pressure to finish the poll as quickly as possible.

Speaker 4 You want 400 respondents, say the longer it takes, the more money it costs because you're paying for the call center to continue to make calls.

Speaker 4 So the Democrats who are most likely to fill the slot are better educated Democrats who are more likely to pick up a phone or answer an online survey and say, I'm a Democrat and I'm participating.

Speaker 4 Those wealthier Democrats and better educated Democrats, because those are the particularly better educated are the are the is the is the is the way that is a single trait by which you can most easily tell if they're a Harris voter or a Trump voter, they're going to fill the slots.

Speaker 4 So you say, okay, 40% are Democrats, so

Speaker 4 I'm not overrepresenting Democrats. You are representing Democrats who are more likely to vote for Harris than Democrats who are likely to vote for Trump.

Speaker 4 And that single variable is, according to my sources, probably the the main reason why the private polling, which is more expensively done and wants an needs an accurate poll so they know how to make decisions about the campaign, compared to the public polls, which just want to get the poll done so they can publish it for publicity.

Speaker 4 They're not looking to be accurate. They're looking to get it done as cheaply as possible.

Speaker 4 It's more expensive to do private polls. Kamal Harris just, as you said, raised over a billion dollars.

Speaker 4 I asked where that money went. I should have pointed out that the consultants I have noticed, just having known consultants for 30 years, are richer than they've ever been.

Speaker 4 And I'm not sure the public understands just how rich some can be. I don't think it's true they're richer than they've ever been.
Oh, really? Yeah. Yeah.
Maybe I'm just noticing. I'll tell you one.

Speaker 4 Some of them are not flying commercial anymore.

Speaker 4 So a lot of, I think a lot of the change, and I don't know like dollar per dollar, like are they making 47 cents on the dollar compared to before?

Speaker 4 But I can tell you the Bush campaign really changed the culture

Speaker 4 in one very fundamental way. The people who make the ads used to get what was called a percentage of the box, right?

Speaker 4 And that was ridiculous. 15%.
15%. So Bush negotiated them down to like 1% or something.

Speaker 4 He also said,

Speaker 4 you know, salaries are going to be controlled. Then when John Podesta was chair of Hillary's campaign in 2016, he said, if you're one of the many people traveling between D.C.

Speaker 4 and New York, you're going to take the bus. for 12 bucks as opposed to the train or the plane.

Speaker 4 Again, that was a very big kind of cultural thing of we're just not going to waste the campaign's money on either spending or salary.

Speaker 4 So my sense is that consultants don't make what they used to, particularly ad buyers, but my sense is even pollsters don't make what they used to, but they do, they do make a lot and they spend a lot on polls, which is why they're better.

Speaker 4 They're just, there's a, it's a, it's a quality, it's not a quantitative difference, a qualitative difference to say, we need an accurate poll so we know how to make decisions about this race.

Speaker 4 So a billion dollars gets dumped into one, just one side of one race in the final months, and no one's getting rich off that? They're getting rich.

Speaker 4 I don't think the consultants themselves are making as much as they used to. That's my impression.
Interesting.

Speaker 4 The consultants I covered early in my career were like millionaires who had like their own planes and vacation houses. Most of them aren't.

Speaker 4 A few are, but most of them now, they just don't, they just kind of change the culture of how much consultants get paid.

Speaker 4 What do you make of, and at our age, is it bewildering to you to see the shuffling of the parties? Dick Cheney and his daughter now

Speaker 4 campaigning for Harris, endorsed Harris.

Speaker 4 And then you see a bunch of people you thought, you know, Bobby Kennedy

Speaker 4 campaigning for Trump. Like, what do you make of that?

Speaker 4 Well, I'll probably anger some viewers here by saying I don't think you can attribute what the Cheneys did to anything but their belief in the unfitness of Donald Trump to be president and

Speaker 4 growing somewhat from january 6th i don't think the cheneys are going to get rich off of this oh no i don't think they want jobs i don't think i don't i mean i think it's possible liz would take one but i don't think she's doing it for that at all uh i don't think they hate donald trump for some past grief personal grievance i really do believe that they think what january 6th and and related things and challenging the election say about trump's character make him unfit for the job and they're willing to support someone whose position on issues they find to be, you know, socialist or worse.

Speaker 4 So I think that's- But they don't. I mean, I know them, and my take is that what they care about is not January 6th.
They care about war and the foreign policy stuff.

Speaker 4 I disagree.

Speaker 4 I think that matters to them in terms of Ukraine. And we haven't talked about the forever wars.
That's something you and I see eye to eye on. And I think another huge blind spot of the dominant media

Speaker 4 is the America's bipartisan, from Bernie Sanders to Donald Trump disdain for the forever wars?

Speaker 4 And I know the Cheneys disagree with that point of view, but I don't think that's what's motivating them here.

Speaker 4 I think they,

Speaker 4 and again, this won't be popular with everyone watching us, but

Speaker 4 they think that Trump makes the planet less safe by not being supportive of Ukraine and

Speaker 4 not challenging Putin as aggressively as they'd like. I definitely think that.
Yeah, but I don't think that's what's, I don't think, I don't think, I don't think the

Speaker 4 characterization of them as warmongers or lovers of the military-industrial complex. I just think they have a different point of view about how to keep the planet and the country safe.

Speaker 4 Well, they certainly, I mean,

Speaker 4 I think both are true. Yeah.

Speaker 4 Well, both are true, meaning they care about January 6th and they care about wars or their wars. Well, I think it's overwhelmingly war.

Speaker 4 I think that in their minds, they are keeping, you know, an international order that's been very effective intact.

Speaker 4 And Donald Trump challenges that order. And that challenge is, in their opinion, like

Speaker 4 a massive threat to the world. Right.
Well, I, and I think that's sincere. They think that.
Well, but I also think they're warmongers.

Speaker 4 In other words, like, I think they think they have high motives. They may be high motives, but I also think that.
you know, the root of their power is

Speaker 4 planning war. Like, that's what makes it feel godlike.
So I agree with you on the substance of their objection. I disagree with you about that being,

Speaker 4 for Liz, at least,

Speaker 4 whatever, what's the opposite of subordinate over January 6th. I think January 6th really matters to her a lot.
I just do. In terms of characterizing them as warmongers,

Speaker 4 I just don't agree, if I understand the term,

Speaker 4 I don't think they love war.

Speaker 4 I don't think they profit from the military-industrial complex.

Speaker 4 I don't don't think they're on the boards of defense contractors or or they're oh i agree it's much cheaper than that yeah but they but they but they are

Speaker 4 they just have a they have a very different conception than donald trump and then a lot of the american people about how to keep us safe their view of how to keep us safe is to get us into endless wars yeah i completely no no i completely agree with you yeah um and i never thought i thought all the halliburton stuff was absurd i and also a shallow analysis yeah because i i think I think it's actually much worse than that.

Speaker 4 But whatever. Well,

Speaker 4 I mean, I think it's worse in the sense that

Speaker 4 they take their intellect and their worldview and they lock us into the loss of American lives and great cost and hurt our reputation around the world, exactly the opposite of what they think.

Speaker 4 But I don't question their

Speaker 4 intestine, Cheney's, I don't question their belief.

Speaker 4 It's not connected to self-interest.

Speaker 4 I completely agree. The reason I'm saying it's worse is because it derives not from greed, but from hubris.

Speaker 4 And I think that's much scarier than greed.

Speaker 4 And in other words, if you think you have powers that no human possesses, for example, the power to foresee the consequences of a big decision that you make,

Speaker 4 you know, a rational

Speaker 4 person, by rational, I mean someone informed by humility, which is, you know, a realistic understanding of the limits of his power.

Speaker 4 You do something big like invade a country, and an honest person says, I have no freaking idea really what happens next.

Speaker 4 And the Cheneys, because they are like everyone in D.C., bipartisan, seized with this crazed hubris, they're like, No, no, I know exactly what's going to happen.

Speaker 4 This will start a domino effect where democracy takes root in the Middle East. And, like, that's insane.
Well, the fact is, we do know what's going to happen if we look at history. It'll end badly.

Speaker 4 Exactly. We do know.
The only thing I don't like about when you say warmongers is, to me, warmonger means somebody who relishes sending the U.S.

Speaker 4 to war and maybe profits profits from it or does it because they're insufficiently concerned about the welfare of the country no no no i'm saying just i'm i'm i'm saying something slightly different that which is

Speaker 4 someone who believes that the most important thing he does and i think 90 of republican senators feel this way for example um is sort of manage the world yeah and is convinced that he's doing a good job and this is like a high calling and he understands again consequences which no human can foresee So that's deeply offensive to me because I think it's like stupid and corrupt on the most basic level.

Speaker 4 You don't understand the limits of human foresight. And that's a massive problem.
Yeah. And again, history makes it pretty clear.

Speaker 4 And it infuriates me when people say Trump hates NATO, Trump wants to destroy NATO. He doesn't.

Speaker 4 He wants to reform it so that it's fair to American taxpayers and that its mission matches up with our security needs. I totally agree.
I, by contrast, do hate NATO and like to destroy it.

Speaker 4 So I am the radical. Trump is totally moderate on this.
I agree with you. I mean,

Speaker 4 I would only want to keep it if it were really reformed, but

Speaker 4 I think there is still a purpose for it. There could be, but man, does it hurt the countries that participate, in my opinion? It eliminates their sovereignty.

Speaker 4 And foreign troops on your soil, like that's a big thing.

Speaker 4 The problem is they just don't have an

Speaker 4 there's there's it's the best arrangement for maximizing our safety

Speaker 4 even even with all the flaws. If it were reformed,

Speaker 4 it would be

Speaker 4 even flawed. It's probably still the best arrangement.
But if it were reformed, I think it clearly would be. Well, Western Europe is done.

Speaker 4 Its economy is in shambles. Oh, but it's not going away.

Speaker 4 Right. It's not being sold to the Martians.
I mean, it's still going to be killed with

Speaker 4 Finnish and Belgians and Dutch. It's all going to be there.

Speaker 4 You know, as someone who's part Finnish, it hurts me even to hear the word Finnish because I just think that was a country that had sovereignty that earned it yeah by beating you know one of the world's great powers in an actual battle the winter war of 1940 and they just gave it up to NATO and they're gonna just really suffer as a result yeah that's crazy but I mean would it the world be better if they all had their own robust armies

Speaker 4 No, I mean, but I, I, you know, navies and air force and you know, you, you could easily envision like regional cooperation between, say, the four Nordic

Speaker 4 or Eastern,

Speaker 4 but why is that better than

Speaker 4 a continent-wide

Speaker 4 force to deal with the realities, which is Russia and China are going to threaten us for a long time? But it's not continent-wide, actually.

Speaker 4 There's just an extension of a faraway empire that doesn't have any of their interests

Speaker 4 at heart.

Speaker 4 And also, it degrades the spirit of a country to have foreign traders on its soil. I agree with that.
You look at England and it's like,

Speaker 4 why is it collapsing so fast? And I think a lot of that is, and I don't think anyone meant to do this, actually.

Speaker 4 I think a lot of the worst things that happen to your very wise and true point about the Chinese, I think they think they're doing the right thing.

Speaker 4 I think the people who administer the EU think they're doing the right thing. I think your average NATO commander thinks he's doing the right thing.

Speaker 4 But the effect of having foreign troops on your soil for 80 years is to eliminate any pride in your country. Yeah, I agree.
And I think you see that. Japan's probably the country I know best.
Yes.

Speaker 4 And America's troop presence is just deleterious to their feeling like an adult country. Totally.
And that's one of the reasons they have such a high suicide rate. Same with South Korea.
I agree. But

Speaker 4 again,

Speaker 4 there are threats in the world that are serious

Speaker 4 that America cannot as easily deal with a deterrence and spying and

Speaker 4 action if necessary if we don't have North Korea, Australia, or South Korea, Australia, Japan, and NATO countries with some degree of military cooperation. I just think

Speaker 4 it's just the reality of real estate and how long it takes to get places.

Speaker 4 We cannot defend and deter from the continental United States. Just not going to happen to the same degree that's necessary to deal with

Speaker 4 the Middle East and Russia and China and North Korea.

Speaker 4 It's just a requirement geographically to be there. But I agree with you in terms of the case.
But

Speaker 4 it really is kind of like Munchausen's by proxy. It's like we're killing the people we claim to love.

Speaker 4 But one of the powers of Trump's idea is if they paid more for it, if more of it was theirs, I think it would be less infantilizing and it would be

Speaker 4 they'd be more full partners as opposed to being under the American umbrella. Part of the challenge is also their nuclear weapons, right? We don't want these other countries to have nuclear weapons.

Speaker 4 That's exactly right. And if we're not partnered with the Japanese and

Speaker 4 the South Koreans and the Europeans, they're going to want nuclear weapons.

Speaker 4 Well, and Japan, especially, because Japan, I think people, it sounds like you like and go know the area, but the one thing, I'm not no expert on Asia, but having spent time there, the one thing I'm always shocked by is how totally freaked out by Japan every other country is, particularly China.

Speaker 4 Yeah. And

Speaker 4 South Korea, too, their ally. For sure.
You don't think of Japan as a martial power because it's not. No, but

Speaker 4 China. 1995 wasn't that long ago for exactly right.
Yeah. And that's, and that's, again,

Speaker 4 there's downsides to our our relationship. People in Okinawa hate the United States because of our military presence.
But the upside is

Speaker 4 we have effectively restrained them and allowed them to become part of the community of nations and develop a relationship with South Korea that's stronger now.

Speaker 4 It's one of the things Biden has done successfully in foreign policy.

Speaker 4 It's stronger now than it's been since the end of the war, in part because they do not have a military that's threatening to these other countries. It's yeah, the Japanese are so elaborately nice.

Speaker 4 They're just such wonderful people. It's so hard to imagine what they were not that long ago.
It's amazing to turn in one generation.

Speaker 4 And I mean, if anything, they could use a little bit more of the fierceness

Speaker 4 than the current generation, but they've been turned into just completely defanged in a way that I think has hurt the society, but had to be done to some extent because of the specter of the end of the war and the strong feelings, as you said, in China and South Korea.

Speaker 4 Wow, to this day, really, really jaundice view of the Japanese. Yeah, it's really noticeable.
Now, you asked me about Bobby Kennedy.

Speaker 4 Predicting or explaining Bobby Kennedy is like predicting or explaining Kum Jong-un. I mean, he's just a

Speaker 4 mercury man, that Bobby Kennedy. So why is he for Trump? I think he's anti-establishment, and he believes that the current military situation,

Speaker 4 food safety,

Speaker 4 foreign wars, all of that

Speaker 4 requires profound change.

Speaker 4 And so I think there's some really strong ideological ties to Trump. I think he also is angry at the Democratic Party for keeping him from being able to run for the nomination

Speaker 4 fairly and for

Speaker 4 attacking him personally. So I think that's part of it too.
And I think Trump offered him the better deal for what it would mean to endorse him.

Speaker 4 But I think it's a mistake to just say he's a cuck who wanted a big role. I think food safety, foreign wars, military-industrial complex.
Yeah, all that is

Speaker 4 if he were, if he were 50, 20 years younger, had a normal voice and stayed on message, I think he would have been a formidable

Speaker 4 formidable. His announcement speech was one of the best and most important speeches of the last five years by any politician, but he simply doesn't have the discipline to do this.
And

Speaker 4 in that sense, he's a great companion for Donald Trump, who also lacks the discipline to stay focused on the core issues that have immense appeal across party lines, not just fringe. So he told me,

Speaker 4 I think a lot of him, I think your analysis is fair, but he told me that the Democratic Party didn't even consider talking to him.

Speaker 4 And, you know, clearly he's got a real constituency. He's an energetic man, and he's got a lot going for him, despite, you know, the deficits.

Speaker 4 And so like, why wouldn't you make a good faith effort to bring him over to the party that he grew up in? I don't understand that. I think that

Speaker 4 you mean, you mean after he got out of the

Speaker 4 or he's considering getting out. Obviously, he's considering getting out.
We knew that was going to happen. So like, why would the Kamala people try for him? They just decided

Speaker 4 to not elevate him by treating him like a serious person. It's a decision they made to just brand him as a kook.

Speaker 4 I'd love to see a parallel universe. If Biden hadn't run and he had run for the the Democratic nomination.
I would have been curious to see how he would have done.

Speaker 4 But they just decided when he was running for the nomination to destroy him. And

Speaker 4 he made it easy through his past and his present. But having done that, I think they just felt they couldn't suddenly change and decide he was a good guy.

Speaker 4 It does seem like, and Bernie Sanders obviously felt this very personally twice, but it seems like the real sin in the Democratic Party is trying to bring any kind of change.

Speaker 4 Yeah, being anti-establishment, being populist.

Speaker 4 You know, Bernie,

Speaker 4 had Bernie played under fair rules, I think he would have been the nominee at least one of the two times. But

Speaker 4 that's, you know, that's politics. And whether you've got an incumbent like Joe Biden or a quasi-incumbent like Hillary Clinton,

Speaker 4 you know, the party establishment's going to do what it does. And pre-Trump, that would have happened as well in the Republican Party.

Speaker 4 So, okay, let's just, I've got two two more big questions for you.

Speaker 4 First, I should have asked you earlier, who is running the country right now? Do you know?

Speaker 4 Yeah, Joe Biden and the White House Chief of Staff and senior advisors to the president and definitely Tony Blinken and Jake Sullivan.

Speaker 4 If you manage Joe Biden's time, if you recognize when he's up to it and when he's not, he can still make a lot of decisions, and I believe does.

Speaker 4 So I don't think there's any Barack Obama or all these other things, basically bad. But the White House Chief of Staff has to manage that.

Speaker 4 And then there's a few very close personal aides to the president who aren't famous people, but they

Speaker 4 help figure out when to plug him into this and

Speaker 4 minimize the prospect that a big decision will need to be made at a time when he's not equipped to make it. It's not a great situation, but it is

Speaker 4 as evidence of the fact that

Speaker 4 the number of times he's displayed abject inability,

Speaker 4 it's probably 25 times where it's just abject,

Speaker 4 given the circumstances, that's relatively small. And it's testament to not just the fierceness of the conspiracy, but the degree to which it's well managed.

Speaker 4 Have to understand under the circumstances, if there's not going to be an invocation of the 25th Amendment, if he's not going to resign, we have to be grateful that it's well managed.

Speaker 4 Let's say Trump wins

Speaker 4 three weeks from today.

Speaker 4 What happens? The Democratic Party just, I mean, as you said,

Speaker 4 a lot of Democrats, maybe the majority, believe that Trump becoming president again is the worst thing that ever could happen. So how do they respond to that? I say this not flippantly.

Speaker 4 I think it will be the cause of the greatest mental health crisis in the history of the country.

Speaker 4 I don't, I think tens of millions of people will question their connection to the nation, their connection to other human beings, their connection to their vision of what their future for them and their children could be like.

Speaker 4 And I think that will

Speaker 4 require an enormous amount of access to mental health professionals. I think it'll lead to

Speaker 4 trauma in the workplace. I think there'll be some degree of

Speaker 4 protest 100% serious. 100% serious.
I think there'll be alcoholism. There'll be broken marriages.

Speaker 4 What? Yeah.

Speaker 4 They They think he's the worst person possible to be president.

Speaker 4 And having won by the hand of Jim Comey and Fluke in 2016 and then performed in office for four years and denied who won the election last time and January 6th, the fact that under a fair election, America chose by the rules pre-agreed to.

Speaker 4 Donald Trump again, I think it will cause the biggest mental health crisis in the history of America. And I don't think it will be kind of a passing thing that by the inauguration will be fine.

Speaker 4 I think it will be sustained and unprecedented and hideous. And I don't think the country's ready for it.

Speaker 4 So, mental health crises often manifest in violence. Yeah, I think there'll be some violence.
I think

Speaker 4 there'll be workplace fights. There'll be fights at birthday, kids' birthday parties.

Speaker 4 I think there'll be protests that will turn violent. I hope they're not, but I think there will be some.

Speaker 4 But I think it will be more, it'll be less anger and more

Speaker 4 a failure to understand

Speaker 4 how it could happen. You know, like

Speaker 4 the death of a child or your spouse announcing that, that, you know, your wife announcing she's a lesbian and she's leaving you for your best friend, like

Speaker 4 something that's so traumatic that it is impossible for even the most mentally healthy person to truly

Speaker 4 process and incorporate into their daily life. I hope I'm wrong, but I think that's what's going to happen for tens of millions of people because

Speaker 4 they think that

Speaker 4 their fellow citizens supporting Trump is a sign of fundamental evil at the heart of their fellow citizens and of the nation. That's how they view it.

Speaker 4 Well, that's very heavy. Yeah.
So that's one thing I think will happen. And then I hope that Trump handles it well.

Speaker 4 I hope that he recognizes his both his responsibility and his self-interest, and that he chooses in his words and in his cabinet and White House appointments, nominations, and in his initial legislative agenda.

Speaker 4 I hope he sees a confluence of interest between minimizing that mental health crisis and the success of his presidency. And I think he might.

Speaker 4 I'm bullish on him seeing the alignment of those two things. things.

Speaker 4 Wow.

Speaker 4 And if he loses, what happens?

Speaker 4 Well, it'll depend on how he loses. It'll depend on if it's close and if he and his supporters see

Speaker 4 wrongdoing in casting and counting of ballots in the seven states. It's very difficult

Speaker 4 for me to imagine her winning by enough that that doesn't happen.

Speaker 4 I've been disappointed in the efforts in the states.

Speaker 4 There are some in every one of the seven, but they're not mature enough to

Speaker 4 prepare to explain to people: elections are messy, but this one wasn't stolen. Our electoral votes were awarded correctly to Kamala Harris.

Speaker 4 I think if that somehow goes well, and if Donald Trump himself doesn't challenge the results, Twitter can do what it wants to do.

Speaker 4 I think that

Speaker 4 the negative impact of her winning on the psychology of the losers will not be as great, but I don't think it'll be nothing. And I think there'll be all sorts of things.
Lawfare

Speaker 4 replacing Biden with her after Trump had spent millions trying to beat Biden.

Speaker 4 the media's completely

Speaker 4 full body on the scale. I think all those things will lead to mass skepticism that the election was fair.
And I think it'll be up to

Speaker 4 luck

Speaker 4 that

Speaker 4 the result is clear-cut enough that people don't feel reflexively it was unfair. I think it'll be up to what Trump's attitude is.

Speaker 4 And I think it'll be up to the governors of the states, whether they're Republicans or Democrats, and most of the

Speaker 4 Battleground state governors are Democrats, to

Speaker 4 be as transparent and

Speaker 4 clear

Speaker 4 about any irregularity and

Speaker 4 its potential impact on the outcome. If all that happens

Speaker 4 and Kamala Harris

Speaker 4 decides to, in the transition and in her inaugural address and in her legislative agenda, to

Speaker 4 be

Speaker 4 gracious,

Speaker 4 I think that we could be in a decent place. I think there'll probably be a Republican Senate, and I think people have failed to

Speaker 4 game out. If there's a Republican Senate, a Democratic House, a Democratic president,

Speaker 4 all of MAGA and those unhappy with her winning will put their

Speaker 4 chips in the Senate and say it's up to the Senate to keep her from turning this into a far-left country. And that goes first and foremost in the initial instance to nominations.

Speaker 4 I think it'll be very difficult for her to nominate anyone acceptable to the left who can be confirmed by that Senate. So they'll just keep people in place.

Speaker 4 Well, I mean, you can't be acting forever. It's very limited what you can do as an acting secretary, and she'll want her people.

Speaker 4 So I worry a lot about that.

Speaker 4 You know, one of the huge dysfunctions in this country, regardless of party, is the, and every president will tell you this and probably has, is the difficulty of getting your people in place because of the background checks and the confirmation process.

Speaker 4 You think about her, she started running for president not that long ago. She hasn't had time to start a rigorous transition.

Speaker 4 I really do worry about her, even if she emerges from this election with the country in love with her, not a whole country, but enough to have a honeymoon. If she rises to the occasion,

Speaker 4 if world leaders don't seem

Speaker 4 poised to take advantage of her in some way, even if all that happens, I really do worry about her getting a government in place because I don't think a Republican Senate is going to confirm the kind of people who Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders and AOC are going to demand her to nominate.

Speaker 4 You hear people mutter darkly about some kind of civil conflict, the possibility of that. Are you worried about that?

Speaker 4 Less than most, but I don't dismiss it entirely. Again, I'm a big believer in governors, right? Civil conflict will take place in the state of some governor.
by definition.

Speaker 4 I hope the governors all have great bipartisan plans for minimizing this and for policing peaceful protests and not allowing them to escalate, but not trampling on the First Amendment.

Speaker 4 I think we could have violence regardless of who wins. I think both sides are capable of that.

Speaker 4 I think the chances of it are minimized if the losing presidential candidate makes it clear they don't want that to happen and if the governors are vigilant in devising plans to balance public safety with the First Amendment.

Speaker 4 If those things happen, I really, I'm not all that concerned about violence. If those things don't happen, I'm deeply concerned about it.

Speaker 4 Mark Halpern, I am grateful. I mean it, that you are still a

Speaker 4 powerful voice in media after all these years. Well, you're very nice.

Speaker 4 It's great to be here and your

Speaker 4 place in the world, as you know, we have lots of mutual friends who say to me and to other people you know, what's happened to Tucker? What has happened to Tucker?

Speaker 4 And

Speaker 4 I say, let me go find out. I'll be back.
So I'll go report back. You're right.
You're right here, right here. Good natured, iconoclastic, interested in the world.

Speaker 4 And as we say, unafraid to stand up when you agree and disagree.

Speaker 4 My cousins all say that. What happened to Tucker? We're worried about him.
Yeah.

Speaker 4 I have dinner all the time with people who've known you for longer than I've known you. And they just, oh, what happened to Tucker? What happened to him? What happened to Tucker?

Speaker 4 Well, it just, it was too corrupt for me. Had to leave.
Yeah. But so I'm glad I can go back to New York.

Speaker 4 Maybe I'll do a Zoom. Give them all my best.
I will. I'll say, here's what happened to Tucker.
It's got a nice desk, nice table with some good microphones, sturdy. Exactly.

Speaker 4 Eats right, exercises when possible. When possible.
Anyway, you're nice to host me. Thank you.
I loved it. Thank you.
Good to see you.

Speaker 4 Thanks for listening to the Tucker Carlson Show. If you enjoyed it, you can go to tuckercarlson.com to see everything that we have made, the complete library, tuckercarlson.com.