October Surprise and the Strange Defeat

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Hello and welcome to the Victor Davis Hansen Show.

This is our Saturday edition where we look at the news of the day and we still have lots going on with the Long Shoremans and in Israel.

And so we'll talk about those things first.

And then we'll get to the middle segment where Victor's going to be talking about the battle for France.

So stay with us and we'll be right back.

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Victor's the Martin and Ily Anderson Senior Fellow in Military History and Classics at the Hoover Institution and the Wayne and Marshabuski Distinguished Fellow in History at Hillsdale College.

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So Victor, I know that you wanted to give a little update on the October surprises first.

And we have Jack Smith out again with, of course, leaking things, which is a fun way to try to affect campaigns and an election, and that's what he seems to be doing.

But I was wondering your thoughts.

Well, we know that the Department of Justice has a protocol.

I guess that's the right word for it.

It's a handbook, and all federal attorneys are subject to it.

And in section 985.500, actions that may have an impact on an election.

I won't read you the whole statute, but it says federal prosecutors, prosecutors, that's Jack Smith, and agents, those would be his prosecutorial team,

may never, never, never select the timing of any action, including investigative steps in criminal charges or statements, statements, statements, statements, such as releasing the

I guess the outline of the further indictments for the purpose of affecting any election or for the purpose of giving an advantage or disadvantage to any candidate or political party.

Are you trying to tell me that he couldn't have waited 30 days before he reissued an indictment?

And are you going to tell me that Judge Tanya Chutkin,

is that her name, Chutkin?

Chutkin?

Chukten, I don't know if it's a long or shorter, could not,

had to release all of the little anecdotes that Trump supposedly said, why do I care about pence?

And all this is hearsay.

And he just loaded it up.

And he loaded it up because his other indictments are falling apart for

three reasons.

One, he tried to rush them in a fashion that would coincide with the election.

Number two, he tried to suggest that everything that Donald Trump did was on his own time and therefore not subject to presidential partial immunity.

Right.

And number three,

he

consulted frequently, frequently with people in the Biden White House, as did Alvin Bragg when he hired the third person in the DOJ, as did Fannie Willis, who sent Nathan Wade to speak to the White House counsel, etc., etc., etc.

So this is a blatantly political move.

to try to embarrass Donald Trump.

And it's happening because the original part of his complaint, i.e.

that Donald Trump took out classified documents to Mar-Lago

and broke the law, this fell apart.

It fell apart for two reasons.

Usually those are civilly

adjudicated between presidents.

Obama had complaints.

But more importantly, they had the act the

They had the President of the United States dead to rights with a twin special prosecutor.

And he found that Joe Biden, for over 30 years, had removed documents that were classified, knowingly so.

And he had a ghostwriter who was given access to these classified documents who did not have a security clearance.

And that was known to Joe Biden, who said on tape, I shouldn't be doing this.

That

ghostwriter destroyed subpoena materials, i.e.

the tapes of the two talking about this.

He claimed preposterously he was doing it to protect the integrity of the investigation.

Oh, I'll just destroy subpoena evidence to

protect it from hackers.

That was preposterous.

So then

we came to the conclusion with Special Prosecutor Orr that Joe Biden was guilty, but no

jury would prosecute him successfully or I should say convict him given his mental debility.

He was a sympathetic old man is basically what he said.

In other words, the the other special prosecutor, the twin to Jack Smith, said he's guilty,

but he is too non-compos mentes to stand trial.

But he can be president.

You don't have to be sane to be president, and clear, cogent.

So after that happened, everybody had an outroar, and we found out that some of the documents were arranged for pictures.

They went into Melania's private closet.

It was just a debacle.

So then he pivoted to January 6th, January 6th, January 6th.

And he tried to time it.

The Supreme Court gave him a hurdle.

Nobody thought he would do it.

And then he did an October surprise in violation of the protocol in the DOJ handbook, which he's subject to.

He's got another problem.

The special counsel statute

expired.

So he has no legal authority unless he's

approved by Congress.

He was never approved by Congress.

He has no legal statute that authorizes him to be a special counsel.

It was just Merrick Garland.

In other words, he's still subject to the DOJ.

He's not independent.

That's why he talked to the Biden White House.

And this raises another issue.

They are desperate.

In the last 30 days,

there have been developments that are really starting to hemorrhage them.

Forget about what the polls say.

Look at how they act in accordance with their undisclosed internal polls.

She wanted to hire an airplane to pull a sign at the Alabama-Georgia game to embarrass Trump to debate.

60 minutes put pressure on him to do an interview because they wanted another ambush interview.

And he rightly said, why should I do it?

And you'd never apologize the last time Leslie Stahl interviewed me and lied and said the laptop was watching disinformation.

It was not authentic.

So they want something.

And then the natural occurrence of events, not generated by Republicans, is not in their favor.

We were told that Hurricane Helene was just a storm.

No, it's almost like Katrina.

There's already over 120 people dead and there's hundreds missing.

It could easily get up to Katrina figures.

People have been wiped out.

And you get the impression that this administration for four or five days did not act, and partly because it was the East Palestine, Ohio demographic.

They just said, you know, we're not going to go help those people.

Rural North Carolina, nah, nah.

And the outcry then became, and we talked about this on the earlier podcast, with this completely phony photograph of Kamala Harris with a blank piece of paper and headphones, earplugs into a phone that was not connected.

We're supposed to, and then Joe Biden saying that he talked for two hours on a phone.

That really hurt them.

I don't know know if it's going to hurt them as much as Republicans and conservatives in rural North Carolina not being able to get to the ballot because the whole infrastructure has been destroyed.

That's a real concern.

In addition to that, when he tells Israel, do not do this, do not do that,

you're supposed to take the win, he said last time when they suffered 320 projectiles aimed at them and fired three back.

He said, take the win, Take the win.

Meaning, no one was killed.

So now there was 182.

I guess he's saying, take the win.

You're not supposed to reply back.

And why is he doing that?

He's doing it for the same reasons that the Democrats impeach Donald Trump.

He's looking at foreign policy in the interest of the United States, and he's adjudicating what will be the fallout in Michigan of Arab American or Muslim American voters.

In other words, he's saying to himself, it's not in the the interest of the United States that Iran shouldn't be nuclear.

It's not in the interest of the United States for Israel to take out this with righteous indignation after being attacked.

It's in my interest, Joe Biden, Harris, that Harris will be re-elected.

Not re-elected in the sense of vice president, but will be president.

Therefore, I say Israel do not do.

That's not going to be a winning issue.

Then we talked last time about the interest rates.

Did we really believe that the economy would collapse unless they cut the interest rates?

So they are manipulating events.

Get the special prosecutor to get some embarrassing hearsay stuff out in the last 30 days.

Get

the Federal Reserve, get them to lower the interest rate.

And

we'll see if this works, but there are natural October surprises, and I just mentioned, too,

the

tepid response to Israel and the restrictions on Israel's right to defend itself in disproportionate fashion.

And they use the word proportionate, which is kind of a dirty word, to tell you the truth.

No war was ever won by proportionality.

And then

third, so you had

then we go to the longshoreman strike.

We had the hurricane disaster, we had the restrictions on Israel, and now we have another natural October surprise.

And we talked about that at length, but I'll just point out two things.

I'm sitting on the West Coast, and the talk in California today is not liberal, liberal, liberal California, pro-union California.

The talk is not about shutting down Long Beach and LA port or open port.

It's can we handle the redirected traffic coming from the East Coast.

Now, why would that be?

It's because

the shipping companies invested in automated port facilities in Long Beach and Los Angeles and to a limited extent in other West Coast ports.

In other words, they're able to handle much more traffic at a cheaper cost.

So here you get this argument that we the longshoremen that are making $80,000 or $5,000 or whatever want to make $200,000 and we want a 77% raise and our director is living in a mansion, he drives a Bentley, makes a million dollars dollars a year, and he's threatening all of us to shut down the economy and make us hurt.

Said that.

We can cause a lot of hurt.

45,000 people.

But here in California, apparently, that battle was lost because it's fully automated.

It lowers the price of goods for the consumer.

And we're told by the

Longshoremen's Association that this is evil, that you automated ports and you took away jobs.

Maybe it is.

But I'm looking out my window right now at an almond orchard, and I can tell you that when I grew up, I had a nice job one summer.

You know what it was?

It was taking a mallet and walking down and hitting an almond tree at the stump again and again, and then pulling two heavy canvases on both sides and collecting the falling almonds and then dragging the canvas to the next tree.

But in the process, when it got heavy, then getting my partner and we folded the canvas and dumped it into gunny sacks.

And then we kind of sewed the gunny sack clothes and put them at the side of the road,

the row, and then we came back with a tractor and trailer and threw these heavy sacks on.

And that

took us all day to do an acre.

Well, two people in machines just went through this almond orchard.

One shook.

And as he was shaking, he was blowing a little bit.

The next guy came through with another machine and blew all the almonds into the middle of the row.

And the third guy, about five days later, came in and scooped them all up.

Presto done.

Now,

all that put a lot of work out, people out of work.

I didn't hear the longshoremen say, this is terrible.

We've got to stop all the automation of every aspect of America because we're just the, they say now, we're the model.

If they do it to us, they'll do it.

No, no, no, they've done to everybody.

I didn't hear you say anything about the almond industry or the raisin industry or anything else.

And the one thing

that they don't quite understand is, yes, automation helps people who have capital and sophisticated access to technology.

And therefore, there is no, no, no 20 acre, 30 acre almond.

I have 40 acres of almonds, and I can tell you if I lived on them, I would be starving.

Nobody does it.

Everybody has consolidated.

That means they rent out or they're bought out by huge conglomerates.

Why?

Because the machines I just described go for from about $200,000 to $300,000.

And they're very sophisticated.

No one can afford them except a vertically integrated corporation.

Do I like that?

No.

Did I call the longshoremen and say, you better strike because all of our small farmers, everything we grow is being automated and we have no role anymore.

Only corporations can afford these huge machines?

No.

So

that is a losing issue for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris to just give at the outset a blanket endorsement of a union leader who is a multi-millionaire and who threatens the country that he's going to shut it down and people are going to hurt.

And I think they will quickly

revoke that support or they'll have a cooling off period under the Taft Statute.

Yeah.

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So Victor.

Hold on.

I just have one asterisk.

Okay.

On the October surprises.

So why was one reason among many that Joe Biden told Israel not to retaliate in a muscular fashion against Iran, i.e.

don't send 182 missiles at their infrastructure?

And what was the infrastructure that people had been targeting, supposedly, talking about targeting?

It was the nuclear facilities in Iran, and it was Karg Island.

Now we're right up next to an election.

And the last thing that this administration wants is Israel to take out the oil export facilities, which they encouraged to pump oil by lifting the sanctions on.

And if you don't think that's a political calculation by this administration, you don't have any,

everybody, you have no sense of history.

Let me just remind you that before the 2022

election, Joe Biden during the campaign prior to 2021 inauguration had said that Saudi Arabia was a pariah state and was fighting an inhuman war in

Yemen against the Houthis and he was going to think about cutting them off.

Saudi Arabia just gave him the middle finger and said, go ahead, and then quietly decreased oil production.

Right before that election, he did two things.

He begged Saudi Arabia to pump more oil and Iran and Venezuela and other countries.

And more importantly, he began draining the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

And he never refilled it.

It's less than half full.

Now we're looking at another election with Democrats.

And what is he doing?

He's telling Israel do not

retaliate in ways that would be in your interest, i.e., disrupt the oil markets, because I have already drained this reserve.

So it's less than half.

If I do it anymore,

it'll be so obvious that I don't care about national security.

I'm only caring about Democrats being re-elected.

And we have to get the price of gas low.

We do not want it to spike in the last 30 days.

So I could even go further.

I would guarantee you that if this

hurricane hit a big city, a big blue city in a swing state like Pittsburgh or Philadelphia, and they were without power, this administration would have been there on day one.

No doubt.

Yes.

And right before election, they would be talking about we got to make sure everybody's early ballot.

They would have tables and chairs with ballot people before they would have food and water.

But when you have a demographic like the East Palestine demographic, then they just shrug and say, oh,

it's not as bad as Katrina.

Or let me just take a photo up and give me some blank paper so I look like I'm writing on them.

Hey, give me some earplugs and plug.

Ah, just act like I'm on the phone making an important call.

But I don't really care about these people.

And if they can't get to the polls, better for us anyway in a swing state.

Yeah, sure.

And they're going to show up late for the game on top of it all, too.

So

let's turn to a different subject.

Those 51 experts that vowed that the laptop was Russian disinformation.

The House has been having conversations about it, and they want to form some sort of bill that would

at least work against these so-called experts on information.

But what came out in this was that that letter that the 51 wrote saying that the Hunter laptop was disinformation was cleared at the highest level of the CIA.

And that I thought was shocking.

Oh, it was.

She should be,

is it Jeannie Jespill?

She should be fired.

She should have been never appointed.

But the worst thing about it was

It was a lie.

They were not former, in every case, former intelligence authorities.

Some of them were still having contracts working for the CIA.

And so that's why they asked the CIA director: can we write this letter to affect and warp an election and try to change the perception in the public?

Because the Hunter laptop, with all of this incriminating evidence about the Biden Family Consortium, is bleeding them.

And we need some ammunition for Joe Biden in this

final debate before the election.

We need a big October surprise.

And by the way,

we have a lot of contracts.

Will you get mad if we kind of lie?

No, go ahead.

We won't cancel your contracts.

And that's what they did.

And you know what's even worse?

Some of them signed this recent, the 700 national security experts, the other one, 100 former,

some of them, some of them, Michael Hayden,

Leon Panetta, they signed it.

In other words, they're still doing it.

They've never apologized.

They've never apologized to lying to the American people and trying to warp an election.

And this is going on at the same time that they're saying that Donald Trump was engaging in election interference, and he's under trial for that.

What these people did was a conspiratorial effort organized by the CIA, the interim, former interim director Mike Morrow, on the prod or the catalyst for it was Anthony Blinken, the Secretary of State now, but at that time a Biden campaign advisor.

And so they basically said, we're going to use the authority of the CIA to lie to the American people so that it will get Joe Biden elected.

And it did.

One Republican or conservative poll said later, after polling people, it did make a difference in their vote in swing states.

And so

this

consortium, the Bidens, Harris, the Left, the Progressive, whatever we call this movement, it's not the old Democratic Party.

They will do anything, anything.

Lower the interest rate, pop off a sudden re-indictment of Donald Trump right during the election cycle, try to pressure Israel not to hit Karg Island so that the price of oil doesn't skyrock and embarrass them.

Anything.

Anything.

Suspend 2,000-pound bombs to Israel when they need them as sequential bunker busters when they're afraid of the Arab American vote in Michigan.

These are things, remember, that they impeached Donald Trump for

in 2020, in December, and then they tried him in 2020.

They said that he was interfering in national security matters by putting a hold on military aid to Ukraine so Zelensky until he could explain why Viktor Shokin was fired under the prompt of Joe Biden.

And they said, Biden is likely, likely to be his presidential rival.

He's using his own campaign interest

to affect national security, i.e., the interest of all of us.

Well, I mean, that's exactly in

South Korea in 2012, an election year when Barack Obama said to Medibed, tell Vladimir that, you know, I'll be flexible on missile defense, i.e., I'll cut it.

If he gives me some space, this is my last election, i.e., do not invade anybody until after the election.

Did they impeach him?

No.

No.

Are they going to impeach Biden because when he was a candidate still, he tried to use foreign aid to suspend it to Israel so he would win Michigan?

No.

No.

Are they going to suspend him right now because he's interfering with the national interest of the United States by pressuring an ally that would do the world a great deal of good to take out this nuclear threat in Iran.

Are they going to do anything?

He's doing it because of the election.

He wants to get Kamala Harris elected, and he does not want a big Middle East war.

He doesn't care about the war, but he doesn't want it before the election.

He doesn't want oil prices to spike, and they will.

Yeah, absolutely.

Well, Victor, let's go ahead and take a break and then come back to talk a little bit about the Battle of France in 1934, 40, 1940.

We'll be right back.

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Welcome back to the Victor Davis-Hanson Show.

Victor's talking about World War II right now, and he has a book, The Second World Wars, and we highly highly recommend that you go to it.

It's an

extensive study of the wars that took place in World War II, and it's got lots of new

ideas about evidence that has been gone over, of course, in libraries on World War II.

So please go get the book as soon as you can.

It's a good one.

And here we'll listen right now to The Battle for France, 1940.

Well, remember, everybody, we're trying to follow the course of World War II from the very beginning.

We've talked about the denuement of World War I, the Versailles Treaty,

these

sequential appeasement of Hitler as he gobbled up the Sudetenland, the Anschluss, the Saarland,

invasion of Poland we went through, and then we went through the Pony War, that period from basically October 9th to April 9th of 1940, October 9th of 1939, and then he waited seven months and then he went into Norway and Denmark.

And then things really got interesting.

After a month in which he overran Denmark and most of Norway, his general said,

let's take a pause.

We have lost in Poland and even in the

war to take Norway, we've lost about 20,000 dead.

We've lost about a thousand aircraft.

We've lost about 10 destroyers.

And Hitler said, no, we've got to go into France right away because we still have

Mr.

Stalin and the Soviet Union working with us.

They're supplying us food, they're supplying us oil, and we haven't double-crossed them yet.

So we're going to go in and go into France.

And his generals went crazy.

They said, wait a minute.

Halder, von Rundstedtt, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait.

It took us four years, just 20 years ago, and we couldn't get more than 70 miles into Belgium and France.

Why do you think, after we're exhausted, that you would take on this war?

And they looked at the Maginot Line.

Remember that it went from the Swiss border along the French,

it went on the French boundary or border all the way to the Swiss border into Belgium, and it stopped at the Ardennes Forest, which was in Belgium.

And the Belgians said, well, they won't go through the forest and the foothills.

I've been there.

It's only about, I don't know, 3,000 feet.

It doesn't look that formidable compared to foothills and areas in California.

But nevertheless, the French were very worried about the Belgians because they'd seen what had happened in World War I, that it was a highway into northern France from Germany.

Nonetheless, they did not finish the Maginot line to the coast.

And so everybody knew it was going to be

a big battle there.

But no one thought that the armored divisions of Hitler could go through the Ardennes right near the Maginal line

and do a sickle cut.

That is, just go through and then isolate, like just cutting off a piece of meat and then isolating the British army from the French army.

Not trying to make a big sweep through Belgium to the coast, but just going right through between the two armies.

And that's what they did on May 10th.

And that was a formidable

operation, but it was also historic because that's the day that Neville Chamberlain gave up his Conservative Prime Ministership and the Conservative Kitchen Cabinet without an election, and that's how the parliamentary system works, chose Winston Churchill.

So he had been first Lord of the Admiralty under Chamberlain, now he became Prime Minister.

And basically, as Mark Bloch, the great medieval historian, wrote in Strange Defeat, the entire French army in a matter of three weeks collapsed.

And it was very hard to see why that would happen because it had not done that in World War I.

And if you look on paper and you look at the Belgian defenses and you look at the Dutch defenses and you look at the British invasion forces, about 250,000

they had sent over the British expeditionary forces and you look at the French army, they had mobilized 5 million people.

3 million of them were on the front.

So what I'm getting at is, in terms of tanks, the Allies had as many as the Germans, and the Shard B tank was better on paper than the Mark I, II, and III.

Maybe as good as the Mark IV, early models of it.

The D-Watin fighter was in performance and maneuverability just about what the Bf-109 was.

So this Supermarine Spitfire was better.

When you look at the actual number of artillery pieces, all of the Allies together had about 14,000, the Germans had about six.

So what I'm getting at is on paper, there were more Allied Belgians, Dutch, British, and French on the continent, near the Belgian border, where they knew the attack was coming, than there were Germans who had been fighting.

So what happened?

Well, what happened is the people who won World War I didn't want to fight, and the people who lost it most certainly did.

And so when you start to look carefully at the realities behind the preponderance of advantages that the Allies had, remember they were the defenders.

Usually to attack a defender you need three times the number of the defenders the offense did.

The Germans were the offensive

party and yet they had fewer assets than did the Allies in total.

So what happened?

Well, it's very easy to look.

When you look at missions by 109s and Junkers dive bombers, they were flying four and five missions per day.

The French were doing one or two.

When you look at motorized vehicles, they had 45,000 vehicles coming through the Ardennes.

They had a traffic jam that was over 100 miles long.

They could have been wiped out

if the French had just gone ahead and tried to bomb them and bomb them all day long.

The British were very careful because they had half their fighter strength in France and they thought if they lost it, they would not be able to save Britain from the ensuing blitz, which they knew was coming if France fell.

Churchill went over there and in about four days he said, where's your reserve?

They said, no, there's no reserve.

They're gone.

What do you mean they're gone?

In World War I, every time they tried to take Paris,

we had, you know, General Joffe, we had the miracle of the Marne.

The reserves, there is no reserves.

Whether that was quite true or not, we don't know.

De De Gaulle was famous because as a one-star general and an armor commander, he fought very well.

He did a counter-attack, and he was very successful had he been supported.

So where was the French fleet?

Well, it was fleeing to North Africa.

And I don't know why it wasn't going sailing right into the Baltic and then the North Sea and then in the Baltic and it could have gone right in and shelled things.

I suppose they were afraid of U-boats.

But the point was, France fell in six weeks.

And all of a sudden, Hitler, this was very important because the Wehrmacht was getting very worried.

And they said this war will go on for four or five years in France, just like it did there.

It's going to destroy Germany.

And as soon as we get bogged down, the Soviet Union may decide to join the Allies and attack us.

This is a very strategically unsound policy, Herr Hitler.

But after he won in six weeks, toured for the first and only time Paris, those famous pictures of him staring at Napoleon's tomb in the Invalad,

in Valid, I should say, and at the Eiffel Tower with the Wehrmacht High Command.

And by the way, remember Darrell Cooper, which prompted a response on World War II, had said that picture, iconic though it was,

of Hitler and all of his generals relishing the destruction of French democracy, he said he would rather be there, that's a much nicer Paris, than the Paris of the Olympics with the transgender kind of Last Supper,

suggesting that an aberrant group of people represented all of modern France, and Hitler

did not represent all of France.

I don't know what he was trying to say, or maybe it did.

But what he's basically saying, the architects of a war that cost 70 million people and a Holocaust that killed 6 million and a people who destroyed France for four years were preferable, and the French were preferable on them

than the current situation in France.

Than the democratic state of France today.

It was lunatic.

So, what happens at the denuement of this, and now Mussolini's sniffing around,

and remember we had said that Chamberlain Halifax thought after the fall of Poll, maybe we can get Mussolini.

Maybe he's suspicious.

You know, they've got the German Empire now with Austria right at his border.

He fought on our side in World War I.

No, no, no, no.

On June 10th, he invaded eastern France.

Didn't do very well, but he joined the Axis power and declared war on France and Britain.

So after the war was over,

then there was a second,

June 10th, Mussolini went in, and then for the next two weeks there was a mop-up.

And then they brought in General Petin.

And he had been the hero, say, of

after the mutinies on the Western Front, he had been the hero of the French army.

He was in his 80s.

And he said, this is a result of socialism and communism and atheism

and pacifism.

And he probably was right about that.

But the solution that he advocated is that Germany is a traditional power and they are preferable to the decadent democratic Europeans, British, and Americans.

So he told the Germans, if you let me deal with half the country, I will pacify it.

I will get the French Empire in North Africa so that it won't try to break away.

Just give it, but don't occupy the country and be...

visibly oppressed.

So the Germans said, this is a great deal.

We only have to put 100,000 troops here.

And then they said,

now we've got all summer.

And guess what we're going to do?

We're going to send a peace offering to Britain.

And Hitler, this is what Darrell Cooper said, that the British then caused World War, the real world, to get intensified and therefore to become the real war.

And basically, Hitler said, you can have the British Empire, and we will just keep all of the stuff we stole.

And Churchill and other people, some of them wanted to do it in his cabinet.

They thought about it, but he thought they're lying to us.

They would keep us in a permanent subservient state.

Our only hope of salvation rests with two developments.

Number one,

the Americans have to come in and help us, and they will not come and help us if we cut a deal and sell out to the Germans.

Number two,

we have expeditionary armies in North Africa fighting the Italians, and they can be supplied by us and the Empire because think about it, we control the Atlantic and we control the entry and exit into the Mediterranean Sea.

We can go into Gibraltar, we can go out Suez, we can bring oil, we can bring food from North America, and they can't stop us because they have no veritable navy other than U-boats.

So we need some help.

So they went to Roosevelt and said, we need 50 destroyers from World War I.

Roosevelt,

I don't know.

Okay, we want bases in the Caribbean and Latin America and Central America, your British possessions.

And that was the deal they worked out.

There were other elements of that deal, but those were the main items.

And we gave them 50 old, 20-year-old, they were still good destroyers.

And we started to implement Lin-Lease.

And then the other third development was:

if

Britain survived and could check Axis aggression in the Mediterranean and stop them from taking the Suez Canal and meeting up maybe at some point if they invaded Russia, meeting up in Russia at the Caspian Sea,

then maybe Russia

will have second thoughts of its deal with Germany and maybe Germany will have second thoughts.

Churchill was a brilliant guy.

He said, you know what?

If he can't take us,

then he has all of Europe.

And what he'll do is he'll turn on Russia.

And if he turns on Russia, that's going to be a disaster for him because we're not conquered.

And that's exactly what happened.

And then Stalin, of course, was double-crossed.

He thought just the opposite.

If we keep helping Hitler, he will destroy Britain.

And then...

Britain will fight.

And he never in his wild imagination thought France was going to fall in six weeks.

Stalin and Molotov were convinced that France would fight for three or four years and Britain would too and America would get in it and Germany would eventually win, but Germany would be very weakened and all the democracies would be weakened and then he would just sort of renege on his

non-aggression pact and take over Western Europe.

That sounds like a good bet, but it turned out wrong.

We didn't realize that,

as I said in one of our podcasts,

I had lunch once with Tom Soule, and he was reading about this, and he was asking me questions.

He says, did you know, Victor, that

it was not allowed to teach about Verdun in they shall not pass, that famous slogan?

They were not allowing kids to learn about it.

I said, Tom, in the Netherlands, they were not using the word destroyer for ships.

They thought that was too provocative.

So, yeah, they were completely imbued with a socialist mentality.

They were just ill-equipped mentally.

They had the resources.

France was desperately rearming.

So was Britain by 1940.

And so were we, by the way.

And so everything, and then all of Europe, all the capitals are under German control.

Every capital is either pro-Nazi, like Lisbon or Madrid or Stockholm or conquered like Oslo or Paris.

or Amsterdam or Brussels or they're part of the Axis themselves like Rome or Berlin.

So what's going to happen?

Hitler is going to try to attack Britain.

And he's going to learn very quickly within 90 days that unless you have air supremacy, and he can't

because of the few, never in the field of history of human conflict of so many owed so much to so few, those were the

RAF pilots, and they had a plane that was as good as the Germans and they were flying over their own territory and they were producing them like mad.

And they stopped the, we're going to talk about the Blitz and they failed invasion.

And then when he couldn't take Britain by the end of 1940, he started to look toward the Soviet Union and prepared to invade it.

And we're going to see next time

Mussolini.

Mussolini is like a problem child.

You go out of the room and he's painted the walls or he's broken windows.

And he's so mad that Hitler never told him that he was invading Poland on that day or invading France that he decides that he's going to do his own thing and invade

Greece from Albania.

And that is going to turn out to be a disaster and delay the invasion of Russia by about a month.

Hitler has to come in and save him.

So that's what we'll do next time.

Yeah, next time.

I look forward, especially Germany had, I think, 2,500 planes, and Britain only had 1,500 when the Battle of Britain breaks out.

So I'll be interested to see that.

Well, remember one thing.

War is a question of choices.

And somebody,

not Dowding and Bomber Harris and all these people for years had said that

you've got to have the greatest bang for the buck.

So you've got to load a plane with the most bombs and the fewest crew members and the fewest platforms.

And so they were building four-engine bombers, and they're just about ready to field the Lancaster.

And the Germans never once had a viable four-inch bomber.

They could not have the capacities to bomb Britain to its knees.

Not in the way the Allies did to Britain and to Germany by 1944.

Well, thank you, Victor.

Let's go ahead and take a break and then come back and talk about a few more news stories.

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We're back.

This is the Victor Davis Hanson show.

And

we have what we're in our third segment.

And I'd like to ask you about or talk about some polls or a poll in particular.

A poll taken in Pennsylvania of independents that show 50%

in support of Trump and only 38% in support of Harris.

And I thought, wow, that is a really encouraging poll.

And I wanted your thoughts on that.

Something's happening in these last 30 days.

And

we know that from a variety of polls of the sort you just mentioned.

Harris

Waltz is bleeding, bleeding, bleeding support among young men.

They're bleeding support, as you said, among independents.

They're bleeding support among Latinos and blacks.

And they're polling far, far

more weakly than they did in 2020, but more importantly, even more than 2016 when Trump won.

And so

I would say there's a 60-40 chance that Trump will lose the popular vote and win the Electoral College.

And you can tell that is something that they're paranoid about, or they would not be pressuring Israel not to hit back legitimately Iran's oil industry, or they would have told Jack Smith, you can't have another indictment.

That's so overt.

That will boomerang on us.

Or they would have

told Waltz, you know,

I don't know what they would have told him.

Cancel the debate.

Cancel the debate, but I mean, but when you put their reaction toward Hurricane Helene and you put their flagrant restrictions on a legitimate response from Israel and you put this interference on the part of Jack Smith and you have the Federal Reserve entering the fray and lowering interest rates, you get the impression

they're going to throw anything they can to stop the hemorrhaging.

And it's continuing.

The hurricane, the longshoreman strike, the Israeli war, and

Tim Waltz, the kind of teddy bear, weepy little Winnie the Pool guy, whatever he is, he really hurt them.

He's a knucklehead, apparently, Victor.

I admired him for that.

He said, I'm just a knucklehead.

I just lie.

I'm just a knucklehead.

Yeah, I wish he would have said, I just lie, because

that would be closer to the trip.

Storytelling.

All right.

We often talk about the border and the southern border, but there's some information that recently came out about the northern border that illegals are starting to cross there in greater numbers.

And in fact, they've had a 50-fold increase on the eastern side of that border with Canada.

And this year, they've apprehended illegals 19,000 by, and it's what,

we're in the last quarter of this year.

So the first three quarters it was 19,000.

Why does everybody want to come?

I don't understand this.

The left has told everybody

that this is a horrible country.

1776 does not exist.

It's 1619.

We are slave owners.

We're racist.

We're just awful people.

That's what our campuses.

Our professors say that.

We have all these Hamas people.

And

there's a big protest.

planned later, early next week, you know, on the anniversary of October 7th.

Hamas,

his agents or their supporters are all ready to take over the campuses again.

So my point is, and then you have all the countries where these people are coming from, Central American countries, Obrador hates the United States, and Latin America and his successor probably does too.

She's a communist.

So why do all these people who live in countries that hate us want to come here when they're getting the message that we're no good?

And I'm just saying they, because most of them are what the left would call

DEI constituents, diversity, equity, inclusion.

But they're telling them how awful it is.

And all I can think of is

that's all a lie.

They just understand that as soon as they get here, they're going to be lavished as they are in New York.

with free health care and free housing and free food and free legal care and they're going to commit 75% of the crimes in Manhattan.

And then we're going to have Camilla Harris say that you've got to have free health care and trans surgeries if you need.

So there's such a disconnect between the official narratives and what the reality is on the ground.

And the truth is, all of these health facilities that we all use are being swarmed.

I mean, we've let in maybe 15 San Francisco's, and we're not capable of it.

And then when you look at this whole therapeutic

no-consequences society is starting to implode.

I really believe that.

For the loan guarantee, 1.5, we owe about 1.8, we Americans,

of student loans, 1.7, 1.8 trillion.

They were going to forgive almost 800 billion.

That would have completely

rebuilt the Navy.

We could have had 300 great ships for that price.

And the border is going to cost us billions.

trillions of dollars.

So you just can't keep doing this with no consequences.

It's not sustainable.

What can't go on won't go on.

And here in California, we've already seen what happens when you have a state when 27% of the people were not born in the United States and they live in a society where there's no assimilationist integration effort.

In other words, the textbooks, the teachers, K-12, it's all about the pathologies of the resident population.

And the people on the conservative side just say, I'm out of here.

I'm not going to stay in California and fight fight this madness.

I'm going.

Bye.

But it's hard to live here, to watch a civilization crumble daily.

And it is.

Yeah, it sure is.

It is.

And every aspect, every aspect is starting to crumble.

It's very sad.

And I'm glad my parents and grandparents are not here to watch it.

I'm really terrified about my grandkids.

to live under a situation.

It's hard to know what to do.

We were talking about energy today.

Vance and Trump said we're going to lower the cost of energy.

But here in California, the solar wind projects

of

all of these leftists that are along that thin coastal strip from La Jolla to Berkeley, who are very affluent in the tech, finance industries, media, all of them that have

global consumers,

they have created a power billing

system where the kilowatts are so expensive that people can't afford to turn on the heat or cooling, and yet they do.

So are you mad at them?

Are you mad at the people who don't pay their power bills?

25%

of Californians do not pay their PG ⁇ E or Southern California Edison bill.

And that makes everybody else pay for them.

Same thing with the real ID.

We were told during COVID, remember, you got to get a real ID.

You've got to, we're going to, this is a federal law, and every state has to comply.

So it's not enough.

You're going to have to have a passport.

You're going to have to have a proof of residency.

You're going to have to have a driver's license.

And then they waived it until, what, August of next year?

You know what's going to happen.

There are people who are not here legally are being waived.

I've seen it happen at the Phoenix airport where people just go through.

There's a special, they just wave them through who were here illegally.

And I can see, as I said before, something's going on.

I don't know what it is.

I don't want to

specify because people don't tell me what's going on.

It's not being discussed.

But somewhere between 1 in the morning and 3.30, there are several flights from different cities in Mexico that are just flying people in.

in mass.

I'm talking about hundreds of people each night.

And I don't know if there's passport control, but I can tell you they don't have real IDs and they will not have real IDs.

And so everybody who went to the DMV and went through all that trouble,

they're not going to enforce that.

That's what's so frustrating about California as a model for the nation.

They look at the middle class and they say, you will follow the rules.

And we're going to make you dot your

I's and cross your T's on every statute.

And if you do, you will create enough capital and enough lawfulness that we will allow a whole underclass of immigrants or whoever we want to completely break the law and to be completely wards of the government.

And that's their attitude.

It really is.

It is.

They hate the middle class.

And the middle class is so weird.

They don't commit the crimes.

They don't.

They pay their taxes.

They follow the rules.

And that's what this election is about, really, to tell you the truth.

The survival of the middle class.

Yeah, it sure is.

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So Victor, the last topic that I have today is Chris Ruffo is on a new investigative trail, and he's looking at all sorts of government documents

across all sorts of departments.

And he hasn't finished investigating, but he has said

that he's finding that the federal government not only punishes and rewards, because the target of his investigation is the DEI policies of the government broadly.

So he says, not only does the government punish and reward individuals based on racial identity, but also has dispensed billions of dollars toward building a DEI regime that spans government, academia, medicine, and contracting.

And from my vantage point, Chris Ruffo

is on the right trail.

It's a world and a corrupted world that runs so deep into all of those institutions.

I just don't see anybody taking care of it.

Well,

if you ask yourself

why Switzerland works with no natural resources and why Mexico doesn't when it's rich in natural bounty and wealth,

or why North Korea works and doesn't work and South Korea right across the border does.

It's really about meritocracy and the rule of law.

It really is.

And they're indistinguishable.

So, if you have a merit system where everybody plays by the same rules and has to

take the same test or be qualified in the same manner, and there's a statute that shows everybody transparently what is required to be a pilot,

what is required to be a carpenter, what is required to be a professor, then that society creates wealth, security, prosperity.

If you tamper with that, and you say, we're going to select someone who is not as capable based on prior expertise or aptitude or cognitive ability or present education, whatever the criteria are because of their race, sexual orientation, gender, and you do that enough, then that society does two things.

It discourages people who are merucratic and they become like Soviet citizens or Eastern European citizens that disengage from the system and their cynicism.

And more importantly, then you get people who cannot perform at a level that people expect the society to run at.

And that's what's happening.

And you can see it all the time, whether it's Boeing or United Airlines or these companies like Disney that used to be

the gold standard in children's entertainment.

Nobody wants to go to it.

Nobody wants to watch a Hollywood movie.

The Hollywood movies are awful because they're trying to make these DI points statements rather than to tell a good story.

And

the K-12, as someone who talks to young people, I can tell you that the quality of education that colleges expect from high schools has fallen off.

So there's a quiet revolution that these universities who are so left-wing are saying, you know what?

We committed suicide because we destroyed the SAT and we don't require it, and then we started admitting on the basis of race, and then we noticed the last three or four years that the students cannot perform at a level that we said, we said, we said was necessary to maintain not just standards, but give us prestige.

In other words, Professor X says, when I go to a conference, I tell everybody I'm a Stanford professor of literature.

I'm a Harvard professor of history, and that gives me cachet.

But if I go back to Harvard and everybody's out protesting, or they're out camping, and they're calling the Jews this and this, and then they can't do the work,

then you have to lower your standards.

And you lower your standards, and some student...

places don't and the word gets out that if you want to study engineering go to

I don't know Georgia Tech don't go to Stanford or if you want to study literature the last thing you should go is Yale.

Yeah.

Because it's all going to be race,

race, race, race, gender, gender, identity, identity, identity.

It's not going to be on,

you know, if you're a graduate student, you're going to apply and you go in to take an interview with the Stanford Lit

chairman.

He's going to ask you, can you just give me the plot outline of seven Shakespearean plays?

Can you name, I don't know, just tell me what you think of Joseph Conrad.

I don't know.

Would you, if you want to be a little bit more modern uh would you compare heidegger to hegel to foucault i don't they can't even do that no

so and that's postmodern so i i just think the whole system is in danger and it's going to affect everybody's life it already is people are afraid of the medical establishment, the pharmaceutical establishment.

They're afraid.

When I drive now, I used to, I think in my lifetime, because I commuted four years as an undergraduate, four years as a graduate student,

and then I was a visiting professor for two years at Stanford, and I've been now there since 2003.

So I would imagine, I don't know, 30 years

going maybe once a week during the school year, 30 times, 900 times.

I've driven that, I don't know, 400 mile-round trip.

It's not that I'm old now.

It's the same trip I was doing at 18, but it's much more dangerous.

Yeah, that's a good thing.

It's much more dangerous.

It's so much more dangerous.

It's not just the traffic, it's the quality of drivers.

They're crazy drivers now, and a lot of them don't know the driving code.

And I realize that law enforcement

can't be ubiquitous.

I don't see, when I was driving, you saw hybrid patrolmen everywhere.

And you get the impression they're not everywhere.

You got the impression people were really scared to get a ticket.

It was costly, and

they don't have any fear of enforcement.

And then you get the idea that the state,

apparently, they don't believe in freeways or roads.

High-speed rail, it's Stonehenge, it's still ossified.

Oh, by the way, there's an update on 14 years of this high-speed rail.

They need another billion and a half dollars for eminent domain just to get from Bakersfield to Merced.

They're still in litigation over a decade for the land they need to confiscate.

And remember, they had a corridor, the Amtrak corridor.

All they had to do was use that corridor and lay a parallel track, and they would have had two tracks all the way from Bakersfield to Sacramento.

And they could have gone 100 miles an hour with two tracks and improved tracks.

Maybe even 110.

It wouldn't have been high-speed rail, but we're never going to get high-speed rail.

Yeah.

So it's very sad to watch a civilization in decline.

And it's not murder, it's suicide.

Yeah, it sure is.

We're doing it to ourselves, that's for sure.

I have a reader, Victor,

who has a comment on Darrell Cooper.

He says, Dear Mr.

Hansen, thank you for addressing Darrell Cooper's mangling of history.

You'll be pleased to learn Cooper has quickly moved from roaring, opinionated expert to sober and judicious victim,

informing all he's moved on with this entire issue and the undue attention he has suffered.

Quite the drama queen.

Well played.

Respectfully, Eric Kohler.

I appreciate that, but that's exactly.

I mean, you go on blog after blog after blog, and you go on Tucker with 70 million people, and you tell the world

that

Churchill was a terrorist, that he bombed the Black Forest, that he was a drunk, that the Allies were culpable for World War II,

and then systematically.

I mean, I wrote an article, I'm doing it in our ultra right now.

I think I'm on part seven that's appearing this week.

Yes, and that Black Forest was a complete lie.

He said that was just one of the greatest terrorist incidents in the history of the world.

Just

makes it up as he goes along, and then he's upset that people who are historians try to set the record.

I tried not to be ad hominem.

I wasn't.

I didn't attack him personally.

I just took point by point.

I wrote an ultra three a week just to show you that not only was he wrong, but there was no evidence that

he adduced.

He kept saying, I've read a lot about Churchill.

I don't believe that.

I just don't believe that.

He wasn't a terrorist.

No.

And

there were terrorists to World War II, and they were called the Nazi Party hierarchy and some of the fascists in Italy.

Well, I get this sense that your readers are enjoying the articles on this particular subject.

Yes, there's a

lot of people who are in the world.

It's going through part 10, is that right?

Yeah, at the end, I have a long, convoluted explanation why this is happening now.

Why are people on the far right

trying to rehabilitate Hitler and the Nazis and blame the Allies for World War II?

And I think

that they look at the modern world and they're angry about it, and they say the liberal project took up after after World War II and we empowered the Soviet Union by siding with it and therefore we had the Cold War and that meant we went into an imperial state, big government to fight the Cold War and then we slayed dragons overseas, we lost our republic and then we the empire collapsed in Britain and then we have all of our open borders and we had Mongolization and we look at a country

like Germany in World War II, whoa, it was blood and soil.

It was on the right side of the Danube and Rhine.

It had its ethnic purity.

So

it's, I don't know what it is, but it's ridiculous.

It's a little bit scary, I think.

Pat Buchanan wrote a book in 2008 basically with that theme, but it was a lot more sophisticated, but it was wrong.

So there you have it.

Well, thank you for all of your wisdom today, Victor.

Thank you, everybody, for listening.

Yeah, Yeah, thanks to our listeners.

And this is Sammy Wink and Victor Davis-Hansen.

We're signing off.