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Hi there, and welcome to the listeners of the Victor Davis-Hanson Show.

Victor is the Martin and Ely Anderson Senior Fellow in Military History and Classics at the Hoover Institution and the Wayne and Marcia Busky Distinguished Fellow in History at Hillsdale College.

He's a scholar, columnist, essayist, and political commentator.

And we love to hear Victor on politics.

And today, for this commentary on the news, we will talk about the elections and the economy and maybe think a little bit about what Republicans might do if they should win back the Congress.

And it's starting to look good, but Sammy Wink here is a skeptic because it looked good in 2020 in November for Donald Trump and things happened.

So she remains a skeptic, but we'll talk about those things and come right back after these messages.

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Welcome back and Victor.

How are you doing today?

I'm doing well.

I'm strangling the long COVID serpent.

I got a little case of the flu, so I'm

back

kind of square one for a little bit.

But I appreciate the fact you called me a commentator and not a pundit.

Yeah, you corrected me.

Sorry, I got that.

Yes, I'm not a pundit.

I'm not paid.

I don't know.

Maybe I am a pundit.

Could I ask you on the just one thing before we get into the elections?

What do you think about this Liz Trump regs, sorry, Liz Truss, excuse the mistake there, resignation after 44 days?

Well, I mean,

when you just out of the head of Zeus announce that you're going to have one of the largest tax cuts to stimulate the economy at a time of stagflation and running chronic debts with aggregate debt, chronic deficits, then people say the markets say, well, wait a minute, how secure is the British pound, the British economy?

How are they going to pay for this?

Because while these massive tax cuts will stimulate economic growth, what happens in the short term?

I.e.,

to have any semblance of a budget, are you going to cut what?

And when you cut what, what will be the public reaction?

And will you have any

confidence that people will support you?

And it was all so abrupt and herky jerky that she didn't think anything.

And so, of course, then she backtracked.

So it wasn't a very good thing.

And they're going to bring Boris back, the buffoon, who's, you know, he's better than the alternative, buffoon that he is.

I was reading in the American Spectator, I was expecting some critique like you just gave, but they actually said she basically doesn't have any charisma or skills of a statesman.

No, she doesn't.

That's because The Spectator is a British, even though it was called the American Spectator.

It's a British publication, isn't it?

It's the

Spectator is, right?

And then they have the American Spectator, aren't they?

Yeah.

The American Spectator is genuine American, and the Spectator that's published here is

British.

Yeah, okay.

Anyway, yeah, they said she had no charisma or skills of a statesman.

And then they just went on to talk about what's next.

Yeah, I mean, believe it or not, their political landscape is more screwed up than ours.

Yeah.

All right.

All right.

So let's turn to the elections.

And I think the senatorial elections are the most important.

And I know that we've talked about some, and I wanted to look at some of the ones that we haven't talked about.

And the first one would be J.D.

Vance in Ohio.

What are your thoughts on his?

That he took a lot of, I mean, he hadn't had political experience, but he had announced, you know, well over a year ago.

So he got political experience.

And he was always doing, I thought, better than the polls.

And this is true of most of these races indicated.

And I guess he was one of the

Senate candidates that Mitch McConnell Winkinod sort of kind of referred to obliquely.

as a liability because, you know, he was a Trump candidate.

All that being said, Ohio is no longer a swing state in the manner that it used to be determined of a presidential elected.

It's more or less a red state.

And he's got a very good,

he's from the Appalachian area of eastern Ohio.

So he's genuinely, he's got all of the credentials.

He's a military veteran.

He's an Ivy League person.

He's a successful business person.

He's very bright.

He's a novelist, et cetera.

So once people got acculturated to him, he got the kinks out of his campaign, he's going to to win.

And Jim Ryan is a pseudo-populist who now is, like any leopard that wants a change of spots, can't do it because he voted about 98% with the Pelosi-Biden agenda.

And then all of a sudden, it's like all these candidates.

Well,

I don't like the open border.

I was never for high gas prices.

I really did want to oppose all of these, you know, defund the police initiatives.

Oh, wow, I didn't really want to vote for this Build Back Better or inflation package or whatever I did.

And so that's not going to resonate.

So J.D.

Vance is going to win that election and he should win the election.

He'll be a good senator.

Yeah.

What are you thinking about Ron Johnson in Wisconsin?

I've always liked Ron Johnson.

I know that a lot of Republicans got angry at him because

he was a forceful critic of Anthony Fauci.

He brought in people people who said that there was efficacy with ivermedsin and

hydroxychloroquine, which I think in specific cases, in limited amounts, there is.

But he was categorized by the left as a

conservative, mainstream senator that drank the Trump Kool-Aid and went nuts.

And all that was unfair.

He's a workmanlike, competent, successful guy in business, and he was a very good

senator.

He's rock solid on conservative issues.

And this Mandelan Barnes is the same thing as Mr.

Ryan in Ohio.

He's trying to run away from what he has said and what he has supported.

This is the this is what I don't understand, just if I could detour generically about all of these races.

Why don't they claim their agenda?

Why don't they say, yes, I voted for open borders.

I like open borders.

We got 3 million new Americans.

We got rid of the calcified 19th century idea of an arbitrary line between us and Mexico.

Yes, I wanted to spread the wealth.

Obama didn't do it enough.

I voted for all these inflationaries, big spending.

I like this COVID redistribution.

Eight-point-something inflation per annum is good.

It devalues all these greedy people with money and it helps the people who don't have it.

I like $5 a gallon gas.

That's the point.

Stephen Chu outlined the initiative on our party years ago.

We want it to be expensive.

Then you'll use less of it.

Then solar and wind and batteries will be more competitive.

So, yes, this is part of the transitory pain of a necessary agenda.

And I like the idea there are fewer felons than ever before in prison.

It was always arbitrary and it was racist.

So these people need a second and third chance.

As Mr.

Fetterman said in Pennsylvania, they're all Morgan

Freemen from Sharpshank Redemption that were unduly

sentenced when they were young and ignorant, and now they're older and they regret it.

We should let them out.

So why don't they just claim that agenda?

But instead, it's like.

Can I answer that?

Yes,

it's a rhetorical question, but go ahead.

Okay, that'll answer your rhetorical question.

Because they would say voters won't understand the context in which they voted for those things.

Exactly, because basically they're Marxists and they believe that the opiate of the masses is, you know, ignorance or religion or media and they don't know what's good for them.

So like good little platonic guardians, they have to embrace the Socratic noble lie.

So you have to lie.

and say that you weren't for all the things that were you were for that did the people good, but the people didn't know it was doing them good.

And because they're ignorant, they might

lash out and and not take their vaccination.

The vaccination being the Biden Build Back Better program.

They didn't take their medicine.

So you've got to trick them and say, you know what?

That's not your medicine.

It's just a sugar-coated tablet.

Swallow it.

And that's what they're trying to do.

They're just as condescending to the masses as they are to racial groups.

It just seems, you know, that's.

Oh, we haven't even seen the beginning of that yet because they're going to get a shock like they've never had the day after Election Day on a Wednesday in two weeks because they're going to learn that 45% of the Latino vote or maybe higher doesn't like them.

And maybe 20% of African-American males are sickening of them.

And they're going to ask themselves, but we did so much for these people.

And we're so liberal.

And why?

What happened?

They're deluded by these right-wing MAGA propagandas.

That's what they're going to say.

You know what they're going to say.

We We can talk about that, but we already know the script.

Democracy died in darkness.

There was voter suppression, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.

They've already got the script written when they lose.

And when you ask me about these races, we should say that all of the candidates that are doing well, especially Ron Johnson, JD Vance, and we'll go on to others, they were all in quote-unquote polls,

way behind.

You remember if we had this conversation in September, it was wow,

the red wave is over.

There's a blue wave resurgence.

JD Durance is down by six.

Blake Master is down by 12.

Mandela Barnes is ahead by five.

Wow.

This is the

Roe versus Wade.

Did them in.

Joe Biden is aviator Joe with his glasses.

He's back.

He's masculine.

He's tough.

That was what they were talking about.

And what did that mean?

That meant, uh-oh,

they're going to win.

and we got to figure out how to re

either recalibrate that win or stop it.

So, what we're going to do is say they have no chance.

There's a blue wave, even though that's a lie, and maybe they won't turn out in depression, or maybe

they won't get enough funding, or maybe they'll be depressed and turn on each other and join Mitch McConnell in damning these Trump candidates.

When that didn't work, they said, Well,

there's always the cycle dramas.

Let's try the January 6th.

Let's put some oxygen in that dead corpse and revive it.

And then there was Mar-Lago.

Let's raid and said, Donald Trump's got nuclear codes in his house.

And when that kind of faded, let's unleash Joe is, you know, Lenny Rifenschill and triumph of will.

There's always.

And then when that didn't work, it was like, okay,

we can still win because we're going to buy people off.

So, hey, Mr.

President, I just thought of an idea.

How about marijuana amnesty?

Okay,

that's my base.

How about student loan forgiveness?

Okay.

How about extending the COVID emergency so people still get free COVID checks?

Okay.

How about draining the Strategic Petroleum Reserve?

Okay.

And

that hasn't worked.

So what hasn't worked?

Why have all these distractions not worked?

Because it's not about the issues that people care about.

They care about inflation and food and gas and crime and the border and things like Afghanistan.

And they don't want to talk about it because they're culpable.

Yeah.

You know, can we go on then to the next one?

Yes, we can.

Chuck Grassley,

I think he's way ahead, but he's so,

I mean, I'm not an ageist or anything, but

I am.

Yeah.

Like he's getting pretty old.

He's holding Joe Biden.

So what's your point?

He's 89 years old.

So what?

Yeah, it looks like he might win.

I'm surprised.

What do you mean it looks like he's going to win?

Okay.

Oh, okay.

Okay.

I mean, don't believe these polls, these five points ahead.

He's going to win.

And by the way, he's a farmer.

And anybody who's a farmer, I have a particular

sympathy for.

It's the hardest profession in the world.

Anything I fail at and other people succeed at, I have great admiration.

You have have a great confidence, too, in the inadequacy of polls.

And

I'm still admiring that.

No, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait.

Before we go on, I'm going to have one more detour before we go to the next race.

You've got to remember that 90% of the polls are done by people who you don't like.

And they are academic media types with a pseudo-sophistication that they're scientists, but they're not.

And

they feel that they're an extension of the Democratic progressive liberal cause.

So what their modus operandi is, as long as they think and that their polls show that a Democrat is going to win, they will exaggerate that.

If the poll is close,

they will exaggerate the Democratic advantage.

If

they really loathe the Republican,

i.e.

they're a really hardcore Trumper like Kerry Lake, then they're going to really exaggerate the Democratic advantage.

And they will do that to, as I said, to bring out voters, to discourage Republicans, to get more money for Democrats, less for Republicans.

But also,

watch how when it gets, when their own internal polling, I mean internal in the sense that we don't see it, why they digest the results, when that starts to show them

that it's hopeless, what they always do in the last two or three weeks, they say, uh-oh, our polls show the race is tightening.

Uh-oh, there might be a

Republican recovery.

And what that means is we're going to be embarrassed that we lied to the people and they're going to get on to us.

So what we're going to do, since our guy's going to lose anyway, we're going to show he's not 10 points ahead.

He's not eight points ahead.

He's only three points ahead when he's really two points down or three point down right

so with carrie luck carrie lake how it works in the real world is carrie lake has no chance she's down 15.

carrie lake has no chance she's down 20 she's down all summer long and then when she's dead even or within a point they said she's only uh oh she's seven points behind but you know she's not going to win she has 18.7 percent chance of winning if you're nate silver silver or somebody like that okay and then when she's five when their polls come back and they oh my God,

she's going to win.

She's going to be five points.

And then suddenly they'll say,

the red wave is real.

Carrie Lake is within three points, meaning they're still going to lie that she's not going to tell you she's five points ahead or four points ahead because they still want to depress turnout and fundraising.

But they, at the last couple of weeks, they always do not want to be shown to be incompetent or partisan post facto.

So they always go within the margin of error.

So they're going to show us that Carrie Lake is ahead by two points when she's really ahead by five.

And then when she wins by four or five, they're going to say, well, I was within the margin of error.

Yes, yes.

And that's how they work.

I mean, that's a stereotype generalization, but I've found over the years it works pretty well.

I know some pollsters and with very few exceptions.

If one knows them, then I think they understand their modus operandi.

Yes, but it didn't work in 2020 as i brought up it did beginning it that that evaluation like sticking to that kind of evaluation of the polls for your understanding of if you looked at key state if you looked at key let's not even discuss voter irregularities but if you look 45 000 votes in in the rights key state and donald trump went to won the electoral college it And remember, when everybody said, well, he lost the pop or vote.

Well, it was basically three states.

It was California, Illinois, New York with those overwhelming left-wing margins.

But if you look at the rest of the country, it was very close.

And that was not supposed to be close.

It was not.

No, I mean, come on.

I mean, Wisconsin was very close.

It was supposed to be a blowout.

He was supposed to lose Florida.

He was supposed to lose North Carolina.

He was even even or down in Ohio.

And so.

They didn't.

They didn't do as, I think what you mean is they didn't lie or they didn't deceive like they did in 2016.

Yeah.

So it was even worse.

You have a better memory than me.

I don't remember.

Well, I think they were confident.

If you read Molly Ball's time essay that I've often referenced, where she talks about a cabal or conspiracy and what she meant by that was hundreds of millions of dollars she knew at the time were being infused into key precincts to get left-wing voters out.

And she knew, and she pointed out that the voting laws were changed in March and April that most people weren't aware of.

So, what, 30% of the people voted on Election Day?

And of the 106 million, not counting early ballots, but just mail-in ballots,

I think 75% of them went for Biden.

And the error rate went way down from, you know, an average of three to five, depending on the state, to 0.2 or 0.3.

So what I'm saying is that people knew that going into it, that they had

She gushed.

She said, this is the secret story of the 2020 election.

Aha ha.

I can't even repress it.

It's so fantastic.

I've got to brag and boast.

I'm giddy about it.

We modulated protests so they kind of died down so they wouldn't embarrass

Biden.

We were ready to gin them up if Biden lost and we needed some protests of Trump's victory.

We changed the voting laws.

We suppressed quote-unquote disinformation, i.e.

Hunter's laptop, et cetera.

Go read it.

It's one of the most frightening things I've ever ever read.

Yeah.

You know,

you've already referenced Carrie Lake, but I would like to return to her.

And we've talked about her before, but she's been recently in the news because for two reasons.

She's getting very close, but also she's really quick on her feet.

I mean, didn't she tell an MSNBC reporter something to the effect of you don't even have any audience?

Why would I do an interview with you?

I think it was that or something.

Yeah, she did.

She said something like CNN, what was it on live or that online version?

Yeah, plus or something.

Yeah, that's why you guys

I could go on there, but you, you know, basically you destroyed it.

Yeah, I mean, I wrote an article about the day she had a press conference.

That day, I just finished an article that came out the day after on

who's the denialist.

And I went through all of the election denialing, denialist, you know, Al Gore, Stacey Abrams, Jill Stein, and Hillary Clinton and Benny Thompson and Barbara Boxer and all of them that have challenged elections or said they were fraudulent or the president was illegitimate.

And then that very day I was writing, she did the same thing and just destroyed reporters.

What she's saying, yeah, what's different about her is she's not reactive.

She's proactive.

So when somebody asks, when the

left-wing person answers a hip, ask a hypocritical question that they would never ask a Democratic candidate, she tells them that.

Okay, I'll answer it, but we know what you're doing.

It's just a complete, you know, hypocrisy on your part.

Once you go ask this candidate about that, and they don't like that, they call that combative or Trumpian.

I don't know what they do.

But she's got, she was an anchor for what, over 20 years.

She's got natural charisma.

She's very attractive.

She's very well spoken.

She puts a very soft face, a soft charismatic tone to Trumpism.

I wouldn't be surprised, as everybody else has pointed out, even though she would have only been a governor two years.

If Trump should win, he wouldn't try to get her as his vice president, candidate, partner, running mate.

So I wanted to ask about also Adam Laxalt.

I think that...

race is a little bit closer in Nevada than the other ones.

What do you think on that?

Well,

it's not.

That's what the polls would like us to believe.

He's going to win,

but it seems that way.

But

Nevada was considered one of the prime examples of flipping red states to blue due to illegal immigration.

So the left, remember,

is giddy that it flipped California, New Mexico, Colorado, and sometimes even thought Georgia and Arizona

as blue states because I think of the electorate that votes in Nevada, 40% are Latino, another 15% or 10% are Asian, maybe 3% or 4% Black.

So it's a heavily minority-majority state.

And it's unionized.

The culinary workers, Harry Reed's culinary workers run the state.

And so they thought they would never lose that state ever.

But

this is what's very ironic, Sammy: is that once you got rid of the

Mitt Romney, Bill Crystal,

Bulwark,

Jeb Bush hierarchy

that was easily caricatured as aristocratic, and you made a populist party, all sorts of advantages opened up to you, i.e., you could talk about class rather than skin color.

And once the Democratic Party went hard left,

the old mantra of Carl Rowe that Hispanics would start looking at family values started to be true for once, because it's one thing to,

you know, be skeptical about abortion.

It's another thing to have to endorse late-term abortion on the day of what would be birth.

Or it's one thing to say, oh, live and let live transgenderism.

Another thing to have drag queens in schools or

raunchy entertainment.

So

they jumped the shark, they, the Democrats, with a Hispanic constituency.

So half of them are going to desert in a state like Nevada, where almost all of the white working class is Republican or conservative, that's all Adam Laxalt needs, even though he's running against a Hispanic candidate.

So

I would say he's going to win that race by two or three points.

Yeah.

Okay.

He's a very, I've talked to him on the phone a couple of times.

He's called.

He's a very, you know, he's, I think he's a grandson of Paul Laxalt, the Reagan-esque senator who was Reagan's sort of best friend in the Senate.

Guy's really young.

He's in his mid-30s.

And

I have a feeling that he's going to win.

Let's hope so.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah.

He's going to, he's going to win.

All right.

And then lastly, I have, besides Herschel Walker, if you want to say something on him, but what about Blake Masters?

Well, let me just say

one last thing.

Remember, Adam Laxall is going to win half the Hispanic vote or more against Cortez Masto, who has that hyphenated name in his Hispanic.

And she's managed to be a senator without any record at all.

Nobody even knows she's in the Senate.

She hasn't done anything bad or good.

She just exists there.

So

it's going to be

He's done what people said was impossible.

Blake Masters, I met him a couple of times.

He's very, very intelligent.

He's a financial manager, as I remember, of the Peter Till fortune.

He was backed by Peter Till.

He's a mega, uncompromising, unapologetic candidate in a state where people were told that that was impossible because they had elected John McCain repeatedly, and they had Senator Kelly

in cinema.

And we were told that due to the

Mexican-American diaspora, illegal immigration, et cetera, that Arizona was a purple state.

It may well be, so that a MAGA candidate had no chance.

And he was outspent, even though he had some access to money.

But everybody's outspent by the hyper-rich Democratic Party.

But my point is that

when he debates, he's very learned.

He knows all the issues.

Kelly's just sort of,

I was an astronaut.

Isn't that good enough?

I flew in outer space.

Come on.

I'm not a right-wing Trump person.

And then when you watch that debate, well, how about the border?

Well,

I'm against illegal immigration, but you voted for everything, everybody and everything that opened the border.

Well, I don't think I did.

And I'm for crime, but you didn't ever, you know, have no record.

Well,

I'm against crime.

And I don't like this inflation, but you voted for all these things.

Well, you know, I just, that's what I'm supposed to do.

That kind of attitude is just,

it's, it doesn't sell well.

It doesn't sell well.

So every time they get on debate, he's going to do more poorly.

One theme of all these, as we go through these things, one theme is that,

you know, next Tuesday,

We're getting close to the two-week mark.

And what is going to change for the Democrats?

I can't think of anything.

Maybe inflation is going to crash to,

I don't know, 2% in two weeks.

I doubt it.

Maybe gas here in California is going to go from $6.60 a gallon to $3.

I doubt it.

Maybe all of a sudden the homeless people are going to get cleaned up.

I don't think so.

The border wall is going to be suddenly finished.

We're going to have no more.

No, nothing's going to change.

And they're not going to either, they're not either going to support these things as i said they're not going to say that was a wonderful open border i created they're not going to do that and they're not going to talk about it

but they're going to let the republicans you know they're going to try to distract but they're going to let the republicans point it out again and again this is what they did and i don't see people are very funny sammy they in these swing years that end up definitive

they they take in things they absorb things they examine things, and then all of a sudden, without too much warning, they just shrug their shoulders, say, I'm done.

It was true in 1980 when Reagan, we were told, was going to lose to Jimmy Carter.

In fact, it was very close.

And then, about, I don't know, four weeks before the election, people said, I'm done with Carter.

I'm sick of the hostage.

I'm sick of the gas.

I'm sick of his sanctimonious preaching.

I'm done with him.

They did the same thing with Mondale.

Mondale was supposed to be a Carter, but much more charismatic.

And he was actually close, we were told.

And then the economy took off at 7% per annum, I think, six months before the election.

And Reagan was not the senile person everybody said he was.

And they were done with Mondale.

And that's what happens.

You get kind of, they just kind of shrug and say, I'm done.

The Republicans had happened to him in 2018.

They lost 40 seats or so.

They should have won, but it was a midterm, first term president usually loses on average, I think, somewhere like 28 seats, four Senate seats.

And

the people were angry that they got rid of the salt deduction for the professional classes for state and local taxes, federal tax deduction.

And then Trump was starting to, you know, they were really hounding him on Russian collusion hoax.

And then they just kind of said, we're retired.

We're going to vote Democratic.

It really hurt Trump.

Yeah.

Okay.

Victor, let's go ahead and take a break and for a few messages and come back and talk about what the Republicans might do.

I thought we were going to do Congress.

Oh, well, we'll come back and do Herschel Walker first and then we'll talk about the Republicans.

All right, we'll be right back.

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We're back.

And yeah, so I wasn't sure if you had more to say on him.

It's a very close race, but go ahead.

What do you think about Herschel Walker's race?

And I hope you notice that I'm only mentioning the Republican in these races.

Yeah.

Well, Warner,

they're both flawed candidates.

So you've got a very sophisticated

rhetorical socialist versus a very earnest and often poorly spoken conservative, which means

most of us would always go with a poorly spoken but genuine, authentic conservative

because you can trust him.

And he's not going to be a socialist like Warner.

And Warnick is doing what they all do.

He went hard left, left, left, left, left, and now he's acting as if he's a folksy Georgian who's of traditional values.

There's scandals.

So everybody's talking about Herschel Walker's ex-wife, ex-girlfriend, illegitimate son, legitimate, all these people are coming out of the woodwork.

And

Warnick, of course, he was a camp counselor.

There were problems.

He was the director of a camp.

There were problems with his camp counselors.

There was his ex-wife that she

says that he ran over her foot.

So I suppose that it's our guy, our guy who's accused of sexual assault or battery or unkindness to his wife versus their guy who's accused of the same thing.

thing.

Yeah.

And so

it's

Walker will win, and he'll, the main thing is he'll be a Republican vote in the Senate.

Yeah.

And that's all you need to know.

Yeah.

Well, let's then turn to the Republicans and what they might do.

I was just reading again in the American Spectator, Josh Hammer, who was talking about

just how high will the red wave might yeah reach and then his whole article culminated in

quote what will republicans possibly do if they do reacquire congressional power and he didn't answer that but i understand you want to answer that so well first of all remember that it's a little different this year when a president's first red term takes place and our pundits tell us that the average pickup for the out party the oppositional party is four Senate seats and 27 House seats.

I think I'm doing that by memory.

I think that's right.

They're usually talking about a party that has been struggling, right?

That's why they lost the general election.

And so they have a lot to make up.

They're 30 seats down.

So they win 27 and they're almost even, right?

But, or they're eight down in the Senate.

and they pick up four seats and now they're only four down.

But this is not this year.

They're dead even in the Senate, and they're only eight down in the House.

So you pick up 30 or 40 seats, right?

And my gosh, you've got already 30 less

Democrats and 30 more Republicans.

And you pick up three or four Senate seats, and you've got 54 or 55, 53 to 55 Republicans, and 45, right?

47 Democrats.

So it's not how many seats you pick up, it's the margin that you start with when you pick up or lose seats.

And the houses are almost equal.

So a typical win, and I think this is going to be greater than a typical midterm win, especially in the House.

I think maybe the Senate will be the same, four seats, three to four seats.

It'll be a

substantial margin.

And that allows them to have, you know, when you have, what am I getting at?

You can have Elisa Murkowski if, in fact, she wins, I hope she doesn't, but you can tolerate her or somebody like her or crazy House members.

You don't need everybody to be lockstep on the same page to get something done.

You have some fluidity.

So that's one thing.

And

what the Republicans are going to do is everybody has to realize that they do not have the presidency and they do not have 60 votes.

What does that mean?

That means they can pass a law in the House, send it to the Senate.

Senate went, does, right?

Passes it.

And the

first thing that will happen is they'll be filibustered by the people who say it's a racist filibuster, right?

The Democrats.

And they will not have 60 seats to override it.

And so they're not going to be able to pass a legislation.

And if they were able to get rid of the filibuster, in other words, if they said, well, Joe Biden said it was racist when you guys had the majority and you said it was racist, the relic of Jim Quill.

And we now kind of, you convince us that we're getting rid of it.

And so they could pass legislation, and then Joe Biden would veto it, and then they would need 60 votes.

And they don't have 60 votes.

They will next time, but not this cycle.

So then what are you talking about?

What is their real power?

Their real power is still pretty impressive.

For example, they can say, you know what?

You guys, we didn't really vote against your guys like you voted against our guys when we had majorities.

But

we're not going to vote for any ninkum poop

incompetence like Javio Becerra or Pete Buttigieg.

We're tired of sanctimonious incompetence.

So don't even send them up.

We're not going to approve them if they're a new cabinet appointment or a third or second tier bureaucratic appointment in the cabinetcy.

Or they're going to say, you know what?

We're not going to approve any more judges.

We're sick of it.

We're not going to do it anymore.

So don't even send a judge up.

We'd rather have him vacant.

We're not going to approve them because we know who they are now.

They're all Sorrell's Bank judges.

Or they can do that.

And then they can run investigations.

So I think you're going to see, we're going to investigate the Biden crime family.

We're going to investigate insurrections.

Not just January 6th, a redo of that.

And by the redo, how many FBI informants were dispatched that day?

What were the decisions made?

What are the communications about the

decision not to have adequate capital

police protection on that day?

Why were certain people not charged, but put in solitary confinement with indeterminate charge and sitting there?

Why were they harassed or treated poorly by jail staff in Washington, deliberately so because of their politics?

maybe.

Why?

Who was the people who insisted Brian Sicknick, tragically, though he died of natural causes, was a martyred hero at what lay in state to perpetuate the lie that he was murdered?

And why did we not hear about the policeman who shot an unarmed protester

who was not committing a felony, but a misdemeanor going through a broken window?

And these are questions that will come up.

And if we're going to investigate insurrections, why not the 120 days of 2020?

Then we go to the, as I said, the Biden crime family investigations.

What was Hunter doing?

Where's his tax receipts?

What were his communications with his father?

Did Joe Biden report this and that and this income that Hunter Biden says he got?

et cetera, et cetera.

And then there's going to be investigations of Merrick Garland and what he, who did what with the FBI, investigating school board meetings and parents?

And why did they do these performance art arrests of these various people?

Who lied?

Why was Andrew McCabe lying?

Why did they pass off a FISA to a FISA judge, a dossier that now that's been admitted in court, they knew was false?

Because they were so desperate they even had to pay a million dollars to Christopher Steele, who still couldn't find one thing that could be collaborated.

So there are going to be a lot of investigations.

I think that the people might get a little bit upset if they end up spending time and resources on investigations that need to be spent on governance for the people.

I mean,

yes, they will.

They will.

But I don't think they're going to get any news coverage.

So it'll go under the radar because the Democrats will not want that to be investigated.

So you can do both, and they will pass laws about, you know,

we don't want to have any more oil taken out of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

We want to have some limits on aid to Ukraine, and they will all be vetoed.

That's how their system works, but they will try to keep being active.

Can they do anything?

Can they do anything to address woke corporations and universities?

The culture, the whole culture.

There's only three things you can do.

The president can...

issue an executive order.

They don't have the presidency.

The Congress can pass a law and the president can sign it.

The president will not sign any law that the Congress will pass.

He'll veto it.

They don't have the votes to overturn it in the Senate.

And then, and then, three, the House of Representatives can shut down the government and not fund it.

And that just depends on how far you were willing to go.

Their power is investigatory and confirmations in the Senate.

And that's where their power will be.

And then the third leg of their

stool is

they can stop

new legislation coming through a left-wing Congress.

There will be no new legislation for Biden to sign.

None.

The only legislation that will reach Joe Biden's desk is a conservative bill that he will veto.

And that's better than signing a lot of left-wing.

And then they're going to try to, it's going to be a two-year war for the hearts and minds of America.

And why this is happening,

we're going to get some bad GDP quarterly reports.

We're going to get bad annual inflation reports.

The gas situation this winter and oil is going to get worse.

We don't know what the hell is going to happen in Ukraine.

We've got a lot of existential problems.

Crime is not going to get any better.

So,

okay, so I wanted to get to the economy, but let's take another break and come back, and then we'll talk a little bit more about the economy and where it's headed.

We're back.

Victor, so the economy, recent articles,

at least one, I've been noticing housing issues.

And the most recent article I found, renters are downsizing as rents rise.

So this change in the this inflation is affecting even renters who are not being able to keep up.

So it seems to me that that's going to be a good thing in the election for the Republicans because that's an even broader population of people that are affected by the economy.

And then also Biden talking about the oil reserves.

I think a lot of people are very angry about how he's straining the oil reserves so he can get his guys elected on November 8th.

What are your thoughts?

Well, One way to look at the economy is just take this.

I just thought of it, this simile.

The economy is like a car that's out of gas at the top of a hill.

Okay.

And it's going downhill and there's no gas and it's in neutral.

And as it builds momentum, it gets faster and fastest.

And everybody's cheering it on.

This is 2021 and 22.

Wow.

Look at it go.

And it was going on the momentum of what?

Everybody had pent up demand from being locked down.

They released them all at once.

And everybody said, I got to eat out.

I got to go to the movies.

I got to go on a cruise.

I got to remodel my office.

I got to go buy a new refrigerator.

I want a new car.

Right.

And then there wasn't a lot of demand.

I mean, there wasn't a lot of labor because people said, well, I'm getting a check from the government.

Why should I go out and work?

Or I've got COVID or I'm afraid of getting COVID or I've got long COVID

or I got used to kind of staying at home.

I kind of sort of like it.

I don't want to go out and get in the rat race again.

So you had record labor non-participation, record demand, and you were not, there was no gas, There was no physical discipline.

There was no regulatory deregulation to encourage investment or productivity.

So this car looked like, it looked great.

And now it hit the bottom of

the road and it's flat.

And there's no gas.

It's not moving.

So all of that momentum was a, I don't know, it was a mirage.

It was just running.

We knew it was running on three things: printing money, huge deficits caused by entitlements, and zero interest money, right?

And that's over with now.

Interest rates have climbed up, and Biden's not going to get through any big spending bills.

And the people ran out of the funny money, and the economy is starting to constrain itself because there's less and less consumer demand and purchasing.

And so we're going to go into a classic stagflation.

I went through it farming from 1980 to 84,

5.

It's really weird because on the one hand, you get all these inflationary prices

that you have to pay, right?

I would look at nitrogen fertilizer.

I would look at Carmex herbicide.

I would go in and try to buy ammonium nitrate.

I bought Roundup by the gallon.

I guess I'm going to get lymphoma.

according to our experts.

But the point I'm making is it just kept going up, up, up, up, up, up, up.

And then you had high interest rates.

So a guy would come out from a tractor and think, hey, Victor, I think it's about time you went, got that massey 265 and upgraded to 285.

And I got a great deal for you.

If you put $2,000 down, I can sell you an $18,000 tractor.

That was a price then.

I tell you what, for you, we'll give you 12.5%,

13%.

I'm serious.

I believe you.

And then you would go into production credit and say, can I buy a tractor?

Well, what interest are you going to pay?

13?

That's wonderful.

Yeah,

that's great.

The going rate is 17.

So on the one hand, it was struggling.

And then when you think, well, it's inflation and prices are going up.

So the economy is booming, but it's not.

The interest rates have ensured it's not.

To fight inflation, they've destroyed the economy.

So when

get your plums and you usually got $12 a box for 23 pounds, you got $3.

Or your raisins were worth $1,400, you got $400.

You see what I'm saying?

And so

you're in a recession, but you're in inflation.

And the two are supposed to be incompatible and antithetical, but in stagflation for a long time, maybe as long as two or three years, they're not.

And when you get into that, it's like being a sailing ship in the doldrums you know what i mean

and the more sails you put out the this the the you go nowhere faster and that's where you that's what is happening right now so the fed has waited too long they printed too much money they encourage for political reasons a hyped up economy and and guess what

There

is no consumer demand now.

All the money has been consumed.

And

there's too many disincentives to go work.

And now it doesn't matter if there is or not because consumer

cutbacks have affected corporations and businesses.

And they're laying people off anyway.

They don't.

If we had this conversation just four months ago, it was, wow, where do you get labor?

And now it's maybe where do you get good labor, but you can get labor because people are going to be laid off.

It's not going to be good.

It's bad.

And

when you have these stagflationary cycles, the essence of life is the worst.

By that, I mean the price you pay for, as you said, rent, housing, food, gas, heating oil, health care.

That's what really kills people.

Yeah, they're exorbitant right now.

Yeah, they are.

They are.

And people are not going to be buying.

I mean, every time you put it this way,

I go a mile down here with my, I keep

talking about a diesel pickup with 32 gallons, and I put $7 gas diesel in it.

And I see some, I can afford to do that because my children are grown.

I'm living in the middle of nowhere.

I don't really go that many places just over to work on the coast.

But my point is, and I see these guys pull in with older diesel pickups, and they don't have echo diesel.

They're Cummings engines that get 17 or 18 miles, these big,

big, you know, big, big Rams

or, you know, a Chevy or Ford big gas engine.

When they come in and you can see that they, they're work trucks.

They're, they're full of shovels and pumps and paint or everything.

And when you see these guys paying that money and they're self-employed, they should be paying

$100 and they're paying $220.

Well, that $120 means they're not going to take, going out to eat.

They're not buying their kid a bike.

They're not going over to the aquarium in Monterey for the day.

And that is cumulative and it's it's it's a force multiplying effect and and then you have to have a factor in human nature people psychologically will make it worse because they say oh my god it wouldn't do a oppression i'm going to cut way back

and then somebody said well i will too and then it becomes just like inflationary buy the house before it goes up tomorrow it is

don't buy the house because it's going to be cheaper tomorrow.

See what I mean?

I think housing housing purchases are the lowest they've ever been in 10 years, and they're most abruptly so.

The fall off has just been dramatic because of the interest rates.

And just think of it.

If you know last year, if you're in California and you want to buy a 1,200 square foot home on the coast, and it's really not worth $1.5 million,

but at $1.5 million, at 2.8%,

yeah, you can buy it.

You can afford it.

And then two things happen.

The next person in the musical chair game at 6 and 7%, can he afford 1.5%?

No.

So for him to buy that house at 7%, that price has to go down from 1.5 all the way down to 700,000.

Well, the person who's selling it thinks, hmm, it's always worth now.

Human nature being what it is, once it gets to that high price, they think it's always worth it that.

I'll never sell it for less than 1.5 million, even though there's no market for it.

So what's happening now nationwide is there's no market for these homes at these inflationary prices.

They're all predicated on an interest rate that no longer exists.

So it's, and they're coming down, but they're going to crash because what's going to happen?

Everybody's going to hold out and hold out and hold out and say, you know what, I just got transferred.

My mom just died and I have her house.

I got to sell it.

My kids left the house and I bought a new vacation home.

We're moving into as our permanent.

I got to sell it that I can hold out.

Well, they're holding out and holding out and holding out.

And at some point, they're going to say, screw it.

I'm going to sell for what I can get.

And when that happens, it's the reverse course of inflation.

It's a deflationary price, and the price collapses.

And boy, you saw that in 2008 and 2009 when house pricing in California didn't really rebound for 12 years.

Yeah, it sure didn't.

I've been in both cycles.

I bought homes and sold them in both cycles.

And it's really taught me at the age of 69

what John Paul Getty said,

you always

buy low and sell high and you wait it out.

And so whenever I've bought a home, I've always bought a home when it was at a low cycle.

And I just turned off my appetites.

I just said, I'm not going to buy a home in this market.

And I've always, if I had to sell a home, I've always sold it at a high price.

But I always had my, in my mind, I always said, things will change.

So hunker down and save money so that if you have to sell this house, you do it at an inflationary cycle.

And when you buy, buy in a deflationary cycle.

But most people can't do that.

When I talk about me buying a home, I'm not talking about a million-dollar home.

I'm talking about a modest home.

Yeah.

In Fresno, about three, three to four hundred thousand homes.

Yeah.

I think I bought a home.

It had been $500,000 and I bought it for $2.98,000 in 2010 or 9.

It was a good deal.

It's not a great deal.

I mean, it was $200,000 off what it sold just two years earlier.

But, you know, by the time it was a foreclosure, and so the people took the lawn, they took the trees, they took, they prior the air conditioning off the roof.

Oh my God.

And it was a new home.

So the bank went in and replaced everything with the cheapest of the cheapest of the cheapest of the cheapest appliances.

Of course.

And then they put the cheapest of the cheapest of the cheapest tile in.

And so it looked great.

And I thought, wow, I got it for $200,000.

And then, you know, I had to replace all that stuff eventually.

And so I think I, when, and then you have capital gains, federal and state.

But I think when it was all over, I don't know what it was, 10 or 12 years later, I made a modest $25,000, $30,000 profit, but I didn't lose money is the point.

And when I bought that home, I thought I had got a pretty good deal for $200,000 less than it had sold.

But there are ways that screw the individual ignoramus like myself that's not acquainted with the real estate market.

I have one more thing though

on this because it is stagflation, which means that there is inflation in places.

And that's

stagnation.

We should use the full term, stagnation, inflation.

Yeah, and the inflation part is becoming,

has come because of supply crunches to some extent, which always raises the profits of the corporation.

And old Joe Biden seems to be using that as the evil corporations who are price gouging us.

And I don't know

how far you think that'll go with people.

Well, it's a little bit more complex because

certain, when you get into a stagflationary economy, certain industries that are essential,

right?

You have, I mean, you don't have to buy a car in a stagflationary economy and you can get by for a few years.

You might have to buy a house, you have to pay for a funeral, you have to buy food, you have to buy gas.

So, those industries do pretty well, right?

But

the idea that they're price gouging, remember in stagflationary, so you're an oil company and you

want to frack or horizontal drill, right?

Let's say in West Texas, you want to expand your oil field to capture these good prices, right?

Because there is demand for oil, for gas.

But your labor has gone up by 30%,

and

your interest fee has gone up by tripled.

And you got more government regulations.

And so when you're making that money, Joe Biden says, well, you're just hoarding it.

No, you're not hoarding it.

You're paying for all of the inflationary part of stagflation.

And

the second thing is, if you're an oil company CEO and Joe Biden ran, and we have those clips, everybody's heard them, I'm going to end fossil fuels

in my presidency.

Yes, I'm going to stop all drilling.

Yes, yes.

All that demonization.

They're kind of our version of the Saudis.

I mean, you don't call the Saudis pariah and then say, please produce more of this stinking, filthy, dirty oil for us that we have in abundance, but we're too clean to produce.

And so you don't say to the oil CEOs, we hate your damn blank, blank guts and you're horrible people, but you horrible people produce more of this horrible fuel so I can win the midterm.

And that's what's happening.

And then, you know, when he says this about inflation and CEOs,

inflation, Elizabeth Warren has got to be the most ignorant senator in the whole Congress.

When she says,

this is because of price gouging, I'm thinking, okay,

So, CEOs

who are,

as we know,

now

very liberal, unless you think Jamie Dimon or somebody like that is a conservative, or the Disney Corporation is conservative, or, you know, American Airlines or United are conservative.

I don't think so.

Or maybe you think Apple or Facebook are conservative, but let's just go along with their liberals.

They're going to to say to themselves, we're not going to price gouge because we like Donald Trump, but we're going to really price gouge because we hate Joe Biden.

So my point is, did Donald Trump ever say, will you guys stop price gouging?

No.

Because the inflation rate was under 2%.

And so, yeah, there is price gouging, but it's not the contributing factor.

You go back to Milton Friedman's dictum.

It's too much

money,

demand, chasing too few goods.

And the currency is expanded and it's not worth as much.

So it takes more of the currency to buy the same or less

goods and services.

And the way you stop inflation,

we all know how to do it.

You

restrict the money supply.

You raise interest rates, discourage discretionary spending, and you cut federal budgets, and you bring back federal budgets so that the government is A, not borrowing in private markets against us to finance these huge deficits and aggregate national debt.

And in addition, you're not giving people

stuff that creates non-productive activity.

So

the way I look at it is in this inflationary spiral that we've been in, I used to play a little game.

I thought, I'm going to do my business at 10 o'clock in the morning.

And I can say without any modesty, Sammy, I'm 69 years old, and I feel I worked three jobs my entire life, whether it was farming, teaching, writing, speaking, consulting.

I did that.

So I was busy 24-7.

So I can judge.

And

I went back and look at my Social Security.

From 1980 to 1989, I never made more than $24,000.

And from from 80 to 84, I never had Social Security taxable income of more than $10,000, some years seven.

And then when I started teaching for $22,000 a year full-time.

So my point is when I go in at 10 o'clock, I look at things.

You know what I see in an inflationary economy?

A lot of men walking around.

They're not going in to buying parts at Home Depot.

They're not at Napa buying generators as, you know, alternators because they're mechanics.

They're just walking around the store.

They're walking along the street.

They're getting their hair cut.

They're not working.

And so my point is, how are they living?

And there's a lot of unproductive activity that allows them to do that.

But you get a recession when people cut demand and government has to cut services.

And then people start to scramble.

believe me.

And you'll see more and people out on the corners of these rural highways selling shovels and flowers and chocolate milkshakes, which I just saw the other day.

Yeah, we have a lot of those in the valley.

It's a very big business, I think.

Very big on tax.

So remember, everybody out there, when they talk about 87,000 new IRS agents, they are not talking about going after Hunter Biden.

And they're not talking about going after Mark Zuckerberg or Bill Gates.

They're talking about going after Jose Lopez, who's got a pretty thriving business of selling merchandise on a very busy corner in California without sales or income tax, or go down to the swap meet down my street on a Sunday morning and you'll see thousands of people exchanging money, and that is all on taxed.

And that's what they want to go after because that's where the money is.

Can you imagine an IRS agent at one of those flea markets?

Yes, they wouldn't know what to do.

Oh, they would.

We've got to remember one thing about the IRS.

They're not woke.

They say they're woke, but they're not.

They want money.

And you get a certain person that goes into the IRS.

And

they,

I was in Farmer's Market 30 years ago, and they decided that they were going to have make people.

I guess it was Gray Davis, or no, it was before him.

Maybe it was Jerry Brown's first term.

Yeah, very Jerry Brown's first term, 81.

And he was going to have sales tax on Farmer's Market.

And man, they had people at Farmers Market that would come around and ask you how much money you estimated you were going to make and what was your Social Security number.

So believe me.

It can happen.

All right.

Well, that's

on that note.

We're at the end of our hour.

Thank you very much, Victor, for all of your words.

We covered a lot of ground.

We covered the election and what Republicans can and cannot do and the perils of stagflation inflation and

how human nature reacts to it.

It's not going to be good.

I wish I could be upbeat to everybody, but it's time to put on your armor and hunker down.

And go out to vote.

Yes, you have to vote.

You have to vote.

That mail-in ballot, send it in if you do that or show up.

You have to vote.

You have to bring your friends.

You have to bring your family.

You have to be vigilant.

And just take it, take this responsibility as nothing.

And I'm not a person who's really ever said that to anybody.

I'm always live and let live.

But my God,

you've got to stop the madness.

This is unsustainable, what's happened.

And we've all got to vote and say, you know what, we've had it.

I'm not going to take it anymore.

Just like they did network when they went outside and started screaming at the moon.

We're not going to take it anymore.

Yes, let's all do that.

Thank you.

Victor, thank you very much.

And thanks to all of our listeners.

Thank you, everybody.

Thanks for listening.

This is Victor Davis-Hanson and Sammy Wink, and we're signing off.