What Up Trade?! Reaction to Today’s Deal, What It Means for Beal, and a Whole Lot More With Howard Beck.

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All right, coming up on a jam-packed Zach Losha.

We had a trade that just happened.

Kind of an interesting trade.

Norm Powell to the heat.

John Collins to the Clippers.

A bunch of stuff to the tanking,

the stinky tanking Utah Jazz.

We're going to get into all the implications of that.

What it might mean, could mean, maybe means for the Bradley Beal, maybe happening sweepstakes if he gets waved and stretched by the sun.

Should the Suns even bother to do that?

We're going to revisit Dame and Miles Turner since that happened while we were almost kind of on the air last week and we reacted in real time.

We're going to talk about Mike Brown to the Knicks, DeAndre Ayton to the Lakers.

What's going on with LeBron?

What does LeBron want?

What should he want?

What should he have done?

What can he do to get what he wants?

Let's see.

Cam Whitmore got traded.

We're going to talk about Kaminga, Jonathan Kaminga, and restricted free agency.

Some teams that are very confusing.

Like, what happened here?

What are these teams now after the dust has settled in July?

So we got Howard Beck coming in.

A lot to get to, starting with an interesting trade with a lot of tentacles around the league.

And And then we're just going to hit a whole bunch of teams.

And we'll do it again on Thursday.

But I hope you enjoyed this episode of the Zach Lowe Show coming up with Howard Beck.

Welcome to the Zach Lowe Show.

It's time on July 7th with free agency winding down, but not over.

Nay, not over.

We have a trade to talk about.

We have signings to talk about that happened over the weekend.

We got Domin Aiton in Los Angeles.

But most importantly, it's time to say the three most anticipated words in basketball podcasting.

What up, Beck?

What up, Zach?

Niche basketball podcasting.

No, we're beyond niche.

We're beyond niche.

I'm niche, man.

There's no broad appeal for me.

Let's face it.

Good to be with you.

Really busy first week that I did not anticipate as I took a quick family side trip right after the finals.

A lot of stuff going on.

And yet, I'm not sure the overall race change, but we'll get into it.

Well, we got to start with the trade.

We had one this morning a couple hours ago.

The Miami Heat, the Los Angeles Clippers, and the Utah Jazz engage in a little three-team action.

Miami gets Norman Powell on a $20 million expiring contract.

The Clippers get John Collins on a $26 million expiring contract.

And the Utah Jazz, for their troubles, get Kyle Anderson, Kevin Love, and a second-round pick and a gigantic trade exception, apparently, which they could use in a whole number of ways.

It's an interesting three-team trade with two teams clearly trying to get better in the Clippers and the heat.

The Clippers, I think, had some extension talks with Norm Powell that did not go well and are prioritizing cap flexibility beyond this season.

And so they wave goodbye to Norm Powell.

They are also a little bit short on ball handling as currently situated, which makes me think, educated guests that they are now the favorites in the clubhouse to land bradley beal once he is waved and stretched by the phoenix suns i expect that to happen asap

maybe we even when we're uh

recording this podcast i had narrowed the beal do you want to hear my beal nexus that i had narrowed it down to oh yes please miami who i think is now out the clippers the lakers

The Bucs, who I think urgently need Bradley Beal more than any other team, urgently need anyone who can dribble and shoot threes, a guard, any guard that's capable of doing anything.

The Warriors, who are kind of caught in the Kaminga

restricted free agency situation.

And our buddy Fred Katz nominated the Orlando Magic, who are not on my list.

I think now it's likely going to be the Clippers.

The interesting, well, who knows?

I shouldn't say that.

My edge people around the league think that this was the domino.

This Norm Powell trade was the domino before the Bradley Beal domino falls.

We'll see what happens.

The interesting thing about this is none of these aforementioned teams have the ability to pay Bradley Beal the mid-level, the full, the big mid-level exception, the $14 million mid-level exception without going way into the tax, with the exception of maybe the Warriors.

And I thought about a world in which the Warriors sign and trade Kaminga to one place.

That place dumps salary to the nets, and the Warriors end up taking back no salary and then can sign Bradley Beal for more money.

I just, I checked in with everyone around the Kaminga situation, all the teams that might be linked to Kaminga.

I found no relationship so far between the Kaminga and the Beale situations.

We'll talk about the Kaminga stalemate later.

And so I think this is going to be, I think the Clippers are now the favorites to land Bradley Beal.

Miami just gets Norm Powell for like nothing.

It's an absolute home run for the Heat.

It's an interesting one for the Clippers adding another big man.

And the Jazz, you know,

people made a big stink about Austin Ainge saying we're not tanking anymore.

And nobody paid attention to what he actually said.

He didn't say we're trying to win.

He didn't say we're going to trade for veterans to help Lowry market in, blah, blah, blah.

He just said we're not manipulating the roster anymore.

And there's no more manipulating to do.

They're trading everybody left and right.

They traded Sexton for use of Nurkic, and they included a second-round pick.

That makes no sense.

Good deal for the Hornets.

And they trade Collins here for a bag of basketballs.

And all they're going to do is play their guys, and they're going to be, they could have played their veterans and still been this bad.

But anyway, where do you want to start with this trade?

How about in 2027?

I know we've got to talk about 2025, but let's start with 2027 because

Norm Powell was not under contract, but expiring deal

as is

Collins.

As is Collins.

So you look at it as a net no impact, but Norm Powell on the roster, you feel an obligation to extend him or very awkward if you do not.

John Collins, they have no such obligations to.

Point being, Ivika Zubach is the only player of substance or the only proven player with a large contract on the books for 2027-28, which makes me think about 2019.

The Clippers in 2019, you and I have argued, debated this a little bit, but I still say 2019 was an overall success.

First time in history that the LA Clippers became a destination.

They get the Kawhi Leonard, Paul George combination.

Ever since then, they've been on that train, for better or worse.

They have the fourth most wins in the NBA since then, behind only three teams that won championships, Boston, Milwaukee, and Denver.

It's been, I would still say, I would still argue, a success for the Clippers in this era.

They became something that they weren't before, which was stable, respectable, and a destination for big-time free agents.

So now I'm thinking about 2027 because there's nobody on the books except for Zubach.

They offload Powell in part because they didn't want to probably have to extend him or at least not at a serious number through then.

Kawhi and James Harden could be off by then.

I know we're in an NBA where free agency, especially like max player free agency is kind of a thing of the past.

And everybody moves via trade instead.

But we're still early in this second apron era.

And I think things might look a little different in a couple of years.

So I'm thinking about 2027 more than anything, Zach.

I'm thinking about the Clippers have their bridge.

We don't know what the bridge is to, but they're going to play this thing out with Harden and Kawhi

and Zubach and see where it takes them for a couple of years.

And then there's a big ass reset button sitting there in front of them, and we'll see who may be available.

And if there's not anybody available, as you and I both know too, cap room doesn't have to be just spent on max free agents.

It could be used in a variety of ways.

So

the Clippers, who are one of the two biggest reasons why we have a second apron, them and the Warriors wildly spending, pissing off all of the other teams, all the other owners, they're the reason we're here.

And yet a couple of years into this thing, it feels like the Clippers are doing one of the best jobs around in navigating it.

So I think that's interesting.

Yeah, it's also time to stop giving the Clippers trophies for like, like being competent.

Like, oh, wow, the Clippers asset management, they did a great job.

And I've did it too.

I said said they were the franchise of the year.

I did say they were like low-key, below.

This is during the playoffs.

Like I said, the Thunder are clearly going to be the franchise of the year.

But the Clippers, like, what a job doing 50 games.

And then they get shellacked in game seven of the first round because James Harden and the whole team pooped the bed like they always pooped the bed in a big game seven.

And so, look, I'll go you one further.

Next year, 26, 27, Kawhi Leonard becomes an expiring contract.

James Harden has a player option.

That deal I thought was was a fair deal for both sides.

The one plus one that Harden signed, it was exactly what I predicted would happen.

And they could get flexible and frisky even before the summer of 2027.

But yeah, good for them.

They managed their cap very well.

I want to talk about their current team.

Let's start with them.

Right now, their starting lineup would be something like Chris Dunn.

James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, Evita Zubats, and then a hole at the four that could be John Collins.

I will definitely see Collins and Zoo play together.

One of the reasons they did this trade was, I think, to add a little more size and a guy specifically who could play the five and the four next to Zubats and Brooke Lopez, which was a great, great signing for the Clippers.

I mean, just absolutely no notes on that.

I put Derrick Jones Jr.

as the placeholder starting for.

You could always start Batum at a pinch who they re-signed on a good deal.

Let's just say it's Derrick Jones Jr., even though the Dunn Jones Jr.

combo, as we saw in the playoffs, is going to be so shooting challenged as to be almost unplayable.

And then that would leave you on the bench with Bogdan Bogdanovich,

John Collins, Brooke Lopez, Batum.

And then we'll see if they resign Jordan Miller.

And if they get Beal, Beal fits in here somewhere.

I would still like Beal off the bench and stagger him with the Harden Kawhi

Tucson.

And that's...

That's like a really interesting team.

Lopez is a game changer as a backup five.

I think the Clippers are trying to split the baby in terms of clean up our books going forward by not doing something with Norm Powell, turning Norm Powell into John Collins and maybe Bradley Beal, making them better on paper than the team that won 50 games last year and went toe-to-toe with, I mean, it's like they took the team that took the Thunder to seven to seven.

I guess that's something and it is something, but I think this is, I think Collins is a good, I think John Collins is good.

And the world has forgotten that John Collins is now, he's got his, he's not a great defensive player.

The shooting, I think, is there now.

He's not like the most intuitive offensive screener, passer, ball mover, whatever, but like he's a good player.

And between just disappearing out of Atlanta and a salary dump and then literally disappearing in Utah, like, hey, John, you're healthy.

You know what?

We don't need you for a couple weeks.

Just enjoy, enjoy Park City.

We're not really trying to win any games here.

He's good.

I think the Clippers made themselves better.

Now,

they didn't make themselves as much better as the Rockets did, as the Nuggets did, and as some other teams in the West, and they just have the unfortunate realities of being in the West and being dependent on one player who could miss any number of games at any time in Kawhi Leonard, and another player who is James Harden in big playoff games.

I don't know how politely to say it, but it's a good trade for them.

It's a good trade for them.

And yes, John Collins was a really interesting player and a fun player for a while in Atlanta, and he's just been in purgatory.

And so, yes, we kind of forget about him.

As you note, he comes with his flaws.

As you note, defense is a major one, and that will be a concern for them.

But

James Harden plus a lob threat is always a great thing.

And

having Collins there in the mix, whether it's at the four.

next to Zoom.

And by the way, I'm sorry to interrupt you, but it's dawning on me, you play him with Brooke Lopez at the four, and he is still the lob threat with Brooke Lopez spacing the floor.

Yes.

Yes.

So there's a really nice three-man rotation at the four and five to say nothing of, yeah, all the other, you know, plug-and-play guys, you know, Batum, Kawhi, whoever else you want to move up to the four.

It's a good addition.

It is a great addition if Norm Powell going out means Beal coming in.

Now, Beal coming in.

So, one, you and I, you know, chatted a little bit before the show, and I had chatted with some folks around the league before we got on.

It does feel like this is where this is going, that Beal is going to land with them.

Like as we sit here at 1.14 Eastern Time on Monday, there's no buyout and no destination, but it seems like the Clippers are

doing this with that in mind, that they're going to backfill with Beal.

If that doesn't happen,

you know, have you taken a serious step back offensively?

You know, Powell had basically a career year at a late stage in his career, which you very rarely see.

They could miss him.

Beal does not play full seasons.

Kawhi Leonard, as we all know, does not always play full seasons.

By the way, it's still stunning to me.

He played 37 games.

They won 50 games last season, and their best player played 30 seasons.

It was a master stroke by everybody involved.

If they do nothing else other than having added Collins, swapped out Powell for Collins, signed Beal, maybe signed Chris Paul.

And

I always say going into a season, even with a guy like Kawhi who has this long history of missing a lot of games, you don't assume on day one he's only going to play 50.

I don't assume on day one that Joelle and Bi's only going to play 40 games, whatever.

I do.

I think if you're building a team, you have to.

But you have who you have is my point, right?

Like you are on the Kawhi Leonard train.

If you're the Sixers, you're on the Joelle and Bi train.

Like you're just, you're just there.

So all you can do is look at who you've got and say, does this group make sense together?

Did we make it deeper did we make it on paper and i know paper

you know flies in the wind on paper the clippers are that much ahead of the game and you go into the season not assuming but at least hoping that you get closer to a full season from kawaii and what does that mean if you won 50 games with him only playing 37 like i i i i would feel pretty good given where they are given the built-in uh limitations and built-in

concerns you always have as a Kawhi Leonard team.

You are getting continually older here.

So if it's Beale, if it's Beal and Chris Paul, maybe,

and James Harden and Kawhi Leonard, this is an old team, and there's a lot of volatility that goes with that, and health risk that goes with that.

But it's a lot of really good players, too.

Chris Paul, it's one of his rumored destinations.

We'll see where the point guy ends up.

I mean, they are wildly overdependent right now on James Harden to be the guy who dribbles the basketball.

Like, Kawhi can do a lot of that, and you just have to assume he misses games.

Bogdan Bogdanovich is kind of aged out of even like medium-volume secondary pick and roll ball handler.

He's more of a just a shooter, movement shooter, very good at what he does.

In a pinch, can do some stuff, but you don't want to do too much of it.

So,

I find it hard to believe they do this deal if they don't know they are getting someone who can absorb someone or someone's who can absorb a lot of that.

I think they're clearly,

I think they're a better team if they get one of those guys than they were with Norm, who I think is good.

Norm Powell also sneakily 32 years old.

Like, that extension would have taken him into the late stages of his prime.

Now, should age well, has a good skill set, although he is dependent on speed to some degree.

It is interesting, though, we're seeing with

Norm Powell's like was a borderline all-star last year.

I thought the all-star buzz was a little much.

Like, he wouldn't have made my team had I been employed in picking an all-star team,

but he would have been close-ish, like top 16 kind of candidate,

and had very little trade value.

Like the Miami Heat got him for nothing relevant to their team present or future.

The Miami Heat traded, to take the John Collins part out of it, the Miami Heat traded Kyle Anderson, who they don't need and never really needed, and Kevin Love, who is aging his way to retirement at some point soon.

And a second round pick.

They traded that for a guy who some people thought should be on the all-star team last year.

That's crazy.

And we've seen this with some of these, like,

like John Collins just got traded for very little himself.

And like Terrence Mann, who's worse than these two guys, but is not a bad player and makes $15 million a year.

They had to attach a pick to salary dump him.

And I think we're reaching this, like, it's funny, everyone, these mid-sized contracts, $15, $20 million,

are extremely valuable for greasing the wheels in trades.

but on their own,

maybe it's just a temporary retrenchment because everyone is so scared of the hard cap, which is what I'm calling the second apron now.

And everyone is so scared of the repeater tax and this and just putting themselves in any kind of jail other than the Bucks and soon the Sons, who are putting themselves in dead money jail for years and years to come.

Those contracts just

are hard to trade for value, even when they're attached to good players.

And I think it has to inform how we talk about the Michael Porter Jr.

Cam Cam Johnson trade, because I heard Bill talking to Rossillo about just slamming the Nets

for not getting more to take on Michael Porter Jr.'s contract.

Michael Porter Jr.

has $78 million due over the next two years.

Cam Johnson has 45 or 48 or something like that.

So significantly less, like $30 something million less, $35 million less.

And they only, only in quotes, got an unprotected Nuggets 2032 pick to do that.

And I think Bill's point was, well, I mean, Cam Johnson's good.

You could have traded the two years and $43 million that Cam Johnson has left and gotten an asset for it and absorbed Michael Porter Jr.'s contract and gotten an asset for that and ended up with two assets instead of one.

Maybe that's true, but I'm not sure it's true on the scale that Bill is kind of imagining because like Cam, I'm not sure what trade value Cam Johnson, who, by the way, hasn't played that many games in the last two years himself relative to Michael Porter Jr., I'm not sure that there's like a great first-round pick waiting around the corner given what we just saw move for Collins man

um Clarkson gets moved for God gets bought out because they can't even move him Sexton moves for nothing um and and now Powell and I think actually I mean call me boring and lame I think the Nets did all right to get that pick that's a really valuable pick potentially when Jokic is like 37 38 years old probably still gonna be tearing up the goddamn league if he wants to be and if he's not with his horses the Nets had had Cam Johnson for a couple of years now and have had the chance to and have been gauging his value all along.

Um, you, I, I thought they held on to both Mikael Bridges and Cam Johnson too long after getting them in the Durant deal, but whatever, that's water under the bridge.

But, like, they

I think by the time they make that deal for Michael Porter Jr., they know what they can and cannot get for Cam Johnson.

Um,

Porter Jr.

himself,

who knows?

A year from, he becomes an expiring a year from now, right?

So

Porter Jr.

may be able to be retraded for something of value down the line.

So you can't judge that piece right off the bat.

He obviously isn't of much value to the Nets themselves.

They're not going to be competitive anytime soon.

And

that 2032 trade, or pick, excuse me,

how many firsts of a better team is that worth?

Like, is that worth

three late 20s picks from a really good team that you never expect is going to deliver you a great pick?

Like 2032, and the thing is,

it's the concept of that pick, right?

The Nets are probably not using that pick themselves.

It may be traded 50 times between now and 2032, but everybody in the league is going to be looking at that as the next potential golden ticket type deal or a pick where,

hey, we all expect the Nuggets are going to fall off a cliff as soon as Jokic retires or, you know, whatever.

He may be gone long before then.

I think everybody will be betting on that scenario.

So that pick becomes really valuable to use, whether it's in the next year, the next two years, three years.

They've got all the time in the world to figure it out.

So, no, I think the Nets did fine.

Let's do the Denver thing now, and then we'll come back to this race since we're talking about it.

They're going to try to force Valentunis to play in the NBA this year.

That was their buzz from the beginning when

he

started his flirtation with the Greece, the Greek team.

And I expect JV to play for the Nuggets next year.

That would be my prediction as of right now.

I was initially quite euphoric from a Nuggets perspective about their combined summer of Michael Porter Jr.

and this first for Cam Johnson and Bruce Brown and Tim Hardaway Jr., which I had not podcasted since then.

Great minimum signing.

Obviously, he can come in and go on a heater.

If he's not on a heater, you sit him on the bench.

And Valentine's.

And then I read Hollinger's recap of the summer, and he rated the Nuggets as in between

and lamented the Michael Porter Jr.

deal as primarily, if not entirely, a salary dump and lamented the fact that the Nuggets yet again lit a first-round pick on fire to dump salary.

And look, even dating to Tim Connolly, who obviously did an objectively amazing job building the Nuggets, and even dating before Tim Connolly, their management of first-round picks has been shaky.

They offloaded one to dump Farid.

They offloaded one to dump JaVail McGee, if my memory serves.

They traded the Rudy Gobert.

They sold the Rudy Gobert trick.

They traded down from

the Donovan Mitchell pick.

And so picks are flying out the door.

And yes, this was, in some senses, a salary dump.

Cam Johnson makes $17 million less per season over the same number of seasons as Michael Porter Jr.

But

I think he is going to be as good, if not a little bit better for the Nuggets than the occasionally banged up and defensively challenged Michael Porter Jr.

was better in a different kind of way.

I talked about his ball handling upgrade over Michael Porter Jr.

on the last podcast.

You can listen to that if you want.

I think he's a slight to slightly meaningful defensive upgrade, all that.

But if you are going to cut those costs, which they did, at least use the flexibility that you have opened up in a productive way.

And in flipping Sarich for Valentunas, which is a $5 million add to the payroll, they have done enough of that to satisfy me.

Are they into the tax?

No.

Would I love it if they spent into the tax every year big time?

Sure.

They have for the last three years and it should behoove them, just as it does did the Clippers last year to get under it if they can do it in a convenient way.

This is a convenient way.

I still think it's a home run for the Nuggets overall in the summer.

And I do expect Valentine's to play for the Nuggets.

That is my nuggets aside.

Any notes on that, or can we go back to this trade?

We can go back to the trade.

I agree with everything you said on the Nuggets.

And

I think

we are in a stage over the last couple of years where every team that's at the nuggets level, perennial contender, one of the best players in the game, anchoring them,

cap concerns.

And in their case, obviously, just

allergy to the luxury tax in general historically.

But we sit here and we go,

what could they possibly do?

They're locked up.

You can't move this guy.

You can't move that guy.

They're capped out.

It's nice to be able to see teams get very creative.

And in this case, we've been talking about a potential Michael Porter Jr.

trade for how long and how difficult is it going to be.

It was going to cost them something.

It cost them one pick that's seven years down the road.

I agree.

I think the swap isn't a net upgrade.

And we will see

the Cam Johnson, who we all, you know, really enjoyed in Phoenix,

you know, as it was with Mikael Bridges.

Like when you're out, when you're suddenly miscast into a role that is beyond your abilities, you don't see the best of them.

We will see the best of Cam Johnson playing next to Nikola Jokic or playing between Jokic and Jamal Murray.

And

I think it's a fantastic move.

He'll slide right into this.

I did it last week.

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Okay, back to the trade.

Let's just dispense with Utah quickly.

They're going to ride the tank train again.

The tank train spit them out at the sixth pick this year, and it spit them ace Bailey.

So they ended up being pretty happy with that.

A lot of losing a lot of holding guys out didn't work a lot of unhappy fans a lot of unhappy coaches a lot of unhappy people wasn't a happy year with the jazz so let's do it again even more dramatically i tried to plot out the starting five of the utah jazz and i got to collier marketing kessler and then i just stopped because then you just have a morass of young players all of whom are going to get copious attempts to try and fail and succeed and grow and all of that.

And I will say this right now.

This trade just happened a couple hours ago.

Lowry Marketing now becomes maybe the most interesting trade candidate in the entire league for the next six months, eight months, 10 months.

And I would say even further,

I would accelerate that timetable to now.

And I would say that had he had a

season last season on par with his all-star season in Utah, had he been quote unquote healthy and played the entire season, I think his trade value would be at a point now where they would just move him now and go full board, just give us the best deal we can for Lowry Markinham.

I think he probably has to rebuild his trade value to that point.

But I mean, he's got to be looking around and just like, I can't do this.

I just can't do this anymore.

And the Jazz have to be looking at him and be like, I know, just give us some time to get this all together.

The Jazz are, I mean,

they're going to, Ace Bailey, Captain George, Hendrix, Cody Williams, Walter Clayton Jr., Sensibal, who I still have a soft spot for Bryce Sensiball, he can really score.

They're all going to have chances to play.

This team is obviously going to be last in the West and

enjoy that, I guess.

I don't know.

Should we go to the Heat?

Yeah, I don't think there's anything else to say about the Jazz.

And you and I discussed them about four or five weeks ago, and my feelings haven't changed.

Lowry Markinen needs to be traded yesterday.

This is a heist for the Miami Heat,

what just happened with Norm Powell.

I don't know where it really gets them for next season in the Eastern Conference.

I don't know if Norm Powell is even going to start for them next year.

I would, I mean,

you could do it like this.

Davion Mitchell, who they just resigned, two years, $24 million, good deal.

Tyler Hero, Andrew Wiggins,

pencil in a power forward.

Jovich, I just penciled in Jovich.

And bam out of bio.

Solid.

Heat have a lot of questions to answer.

We'll get to that.

Jovich is extension eligible.

High Highsmith is a free agent after this year.

Tyler Hero is sneakily extension eligible.

That would leave you with a bench of some combination of Roger, still on the Heat.

Didn't figure into the playoff rotation.

Remember the Heats playoff run of 2025?

Do you have any great memories of that one?

Illustrious.

I'm thinking.

I think they were down by 50 at one point in a game against the Cavs.

I think that happened.

That sounds like a thousand years ago.

So their bench is Rogere, Norman, Powell, Jakez, Highsmith, Kalel, Ware, who could also start next to Bam if you want to go back to that lineup and bring Jovich off the bench, fine.

They picked up Fontecchio.

They have just a lot of guys.

Kashad Johnson, Paolo Larson, they think these guys can all play too.

And they just picked,

what's his name, Yakachunis from the University of Illinois at number 20, who is a kind of player the Heat have not really had, maybe ever, like a big pass, first, pass, pass all the time point guard with some moxie to him i think that's an interesting player type for them but i mean this is like no harm no foul to get norman powell for a year for for this price i i don't i mean anything's possible in the east i guess but they're still to me pretty pretty behind new york cleveland and orlando and we can go you know my hawks

We can go down from there, but

they're going to be in the mix with this.

This is a nice bet for them.

And you know what it gives them?

It gives them someone who can just go north-south.

This team has just

made art out of it, but sometimes art can become a little tiresome of these like passes and cuts and fancy little handoffs and this and that.

And it's sometimes like, can someone get the damn ball from north to south?

Can someone get the damn ball through the paint into the rim?

And Norm Powell can put his head down and do that.

This is the heat following their own script to a T, basically.

They don't want to tear down.

As long as Pat Riley is there, this is not going to be a team that

decides to take a year off or two or three years off.

They want to be competitive.

They want to be good enough that if a break comes their way, if a star is suddenly available, if suddenly somebody wants to force their way there,

they're prepared with a good, solid supporting cast.

In the meanwhile, they'll tread water.

And that's really all they've been doing.

I mean, listen, I want to say that's all they've been doing.

They made two finals with Jimmy Butler.

Things went south with Jimmy Butler.

But even during the back end of the Butler era, and part of,

you know, part of the issues they've had were just they couldn't find that other guy.

And,

you know, Jimmy gets sour, moves on.

They just want us, they don't just need to backfill and be competent.

And that's what they're doing.

Like,

they're at the bottom end probably of the play-in now with the Hawks, I think, we all think moving up and everybody else around them getting better.

Like, you know, how far do the Pacers slip this coming season?

Where are the Bucs?

We'll get to them.

I just don't see much of a path for the Heat to be a straight-up playoff team and probably not even the high end of the play-in range.

And I think they're probably fine with that.

They're just going to keep being opportunistic and biding their time until the next thing falls in their lap.

I don't agree.

I mean, look, I'm not going to be like the Heat are going to have home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.

The only teams that like I'm a 1,000% sure, here are the teams like I'm 100% sure they will be better than the Miami Heat after this trade in 25-26.

Cleveland,

New York.

I'm pretty confident in Orlando.

Yeah.

That's three.

And let's just go down the rest of the list going through the standings next year.

Am I super confident the Celtics are going to have more wins than the Heat next year?

No, I'm not.

Maybe you are.

I'm not.

Am I super confident the Pacers are going to have more wins without Halliburton and now with Miles Turnagon, which you will get to?

Not really.

The Bucs?

Not really.

The Pistons?

Not really.

All of these teams could win more games in the heat.

I'm not saying that they won't.

I'm saying, like, you know, and then Atlanta, as bullish as I am on Atlanta, you think

I've been burned once or twice before by the Atlanta Hawks.

I'm not willing to give my heart to them to this degree.

Okay.

The Bulls, Raptors, Nets,

Sixers,

Sixers.

You think I could have any phase?

The Sixers could win between 25 and 55 games.

Absolutely no idea.

Charlotte, interesting.

I shouldn't have fart noised the Raptors.

I think the Raptors are worthy of a little bit more than a fart noise,

but they still don't pass my, like, am I super confident they're going to have a better record than the Heat test?

All of that fair, but I'm looking at it through the lens of who do I expect to be better if for no other reason than I think their best player is going to propel them further than the Heat's best player can propel them, right?

At a certain point, you reduce it to who's your guy?

How far can he take you?

So, yeah, I still expect the Boston Celtics with Jalen Brown, Derek White and company to win more games than the Miami Heat with Norm Powell and Bam Autobayo and Tyler Hero.

I don't know what to think of the Pacers right now.

Wiggins is not bad, by the way.

Wiggins is like.

Not like, he's not great, but he's a good player.

By the way, I did not get the Wiggins Lakers trade rumor.

Like, I don't know where this came from that the Lakers were going to trade Hachimura and Kinect and a first-round pick for Andrew Wiggins.

It's like Andrew Wiggins is good, but what, what?

What's happening?

And I don't know if that was real at all.

I missed that one entirely during my brief sojourn.

But yeah, that's weird.

Yeah, no, I expect the Pistons to be better than them.

I expect even the Bucs.

Look, the Bucs still have Giannis.

They're doing weird stuff.

They're screwing up their cap.

There's all, you know, I'm not,

I expected more of them this summer under the circumstances, and there's a lot more summer to go, so we'll see.

But no, everybody we've just named, I still expect

to have

a better season than Miami.

Yeah, I like Detroit's summer.

Boston still has Jalen Brown, Derek.

Well, I see your point.

I see your point.

I just don't think there's much differentiation between Miami and all those teams.

I do think you're right in this sense.

I think Miami is keeping its future as open as possible.

And, you know, their path to cap room, by the way, not that clean, depending on what happens with Jovich.

Highsmith is up for a new deal, as I said, and some other, some other variables, but they're very safe from the tax going forward.

And I believe they only owe

one more future first-round pick to Charlotte.

And other than that, they are pretty free and clear to trade a whole bunch of stuff.

And you know, they'll try.

But, I mean, to me, this is just a heist.

And it's a why not?

Why not get Norm Powell and see what happens?

Yeah.

And they'll have to pay him.

They'll be the ones now to be on the hook to extend him, but it'll be at a manageable number and he'll be be a movable contract most likely too so um

this is this is just about all them keeping everything in play

okay let's go back to where we started which is bial who at now 137 eastern time has not moved or is not there's no word of a uh final buyout or anything um

should the should should

in light of the dame thing which i do want to revisit

should the sons do this?

Like, are these smart?

Now, let's be clear.

If they do it, he will give back.

Bradley Beal has owed $54 million this year and $57 million next year.

So $112, $113 million, whatever it is.

He will give back some of that in a buyout.

That's the whole point of a buyout.

And he will make up some of what he gives up on his next deal.

He might not make up all of it because of the cap landscape that I laid out.

He might have to sign a one-year deal and then hope to make up for it with his next contract in a friendlier cap environment, which we could see.

The only thing in this for the Suns is money.

That's it.

Like, yeah, you can get under the second apron, whoop-de-doo.

It's not like you're suddenly going to do all this cool stuff because you're under the second apron.

The only thing they're going to get out of this is a lower tax bill and

some wiggle room,

whatever lower tax bill you get by cutting Beale's salary X amount.

I don't know, like it's just when you look at the Bucks cap sheet, the Dame Miles Turner thing happened right as Waz and I started recording last week.

So we just had our first blush, like, what?

Reactions to it.

And I've been able to think about it some more, been able to listen to some other people talk about it.

And you look at that dead cap money, $22 million a pop

for five years.

You know, and I did hear Bill made a good point saying he could have just been an expiring next year.

And Bradley Beal could just be an expiring next year.

I just, I think what we've seen again is like, I don't know what kind of trade value those expiring contracts would even have.

I think you're just looking at trading it for someone else's slightly less expensive problem on a longer contract.

Like, I don't know that it does you that much good as a trade asset.

It does just then disappear.

So you don't have this dead money on your books.

I heard Woz say there was a chance he had heard that Dame would have just opted out of his player option for 26, 27.

I will believe that when I see it, I don't think that was going to be a thing.

Maybe it, maybe it would be, maybe it would.

I just don't think you can plan on anything like that happening.

But I see the point of just like, just let it expire, especially in a situation like the Suns, where, like, what am I trying to win in the next two years?

At least with the Bucs, I can be like, well, at least I got Giannis to be like happy and do a happy tweet for a couple of months or something.

I don't know.

Should the Suns just keep them and forget all this?

So I thought about these two in tandem as well as we were prepping for the show.

And

at least in the Bucks case, you are under the gun.

Giannis is still there.

Giannis has not apparently asked out despite all of our expectations and speculation to the contrary for months and months.

So you have to do everything possible to show Giannis, we are in this.

We're all in.

And if that means, you know, damn the future, and, you know,

there's some future date here where Giannis may or may not be on the roster.

And if that's when we're locked up and we've got all this cap hell to get out of, fine.

As long as Giannis is still here, we are obligated to do everything possible.

If this is the path to getting Miles Turner to be the younger backfill for Brooke Lopez, fine.

I don't think it's enough, unfortunately.

I mean, shocker there, but

you need to,

I've been working under this assumption, Zach, or I've been viewing the Bucks through this lens.

Giannis did not ask out.

Giannis would have every reason to ask out.

Giannis dropped hints two summers ago to our friend Tanya Ganguly from the New York Times that if they weren't in a position to compete for championships, he might want to go somewhere where they are in a position.

There was every reason to believe that he might force the issue now, and he has not.

So I look at it this way:

there has to be some sort of understanding here.

He's been there a long time.

There's a partnership that develops over time between the superstar franchise player and the franchise.

My best read of this without having really dived into it or checked this, but I would be fairly confident in believing that there's an understanding.

Do everything you can.

I'm holding that card back.

I'm not playing the trade me card.

You know what I need to be happy here.

You know what my goals are.

You know I'm not happy with just one championship.

I want to contend.

Show me.

And as long as he's giving them time to do that, and the latitude to make those moves, everything's fine.

Is waving and stretching Lillard to sign Miles Turner smart long term or even the shorter version of long term?

Maybe not.

Does it show good faith that we're still trying to do everything we can for you right now?

Yeah.

And maybe there's more to come.

Again, it's only July 7th, a lot of summer left.

And so that's kind of the way I'm looking at this.

You could say that's rationalizing on their behalf, maybe.

But I at least see it.

I understand the thought process.

I don't understand for the fucking life of me what the Suns are doing on any level because

trading Kevin Durant was the only thing that they could do, needed to do.

They did fine.

They did all right.

That's if that's Jalen Green, Dylan Brooks, and Malowatch, and it ends up as that's fine.

Yep, that's fine.

I know Devin Booker says, I want to be here for life.

There's no reason that Devin Booker should want to be there, and there's no reason that they should be keeping him.

They're stuck.

They're absolutely stuck.

And waving and stretching Bradley Beal does not get you unstuck.

I don't know what it does for you at all, other than, as you noted, a little bit of savings and a minor bit of safety.

Yeah, in this, you know, the more we talk it through, in this situation,

I just would not want the debt.

It's not worth it to me to have the dead money on my cap.

I just don't want it on my cap.

You're going to be bad this season, regardless.

With Beal, without Beal.

You are not a playoff team.

I wonder if Madishbia

doesn't think they're going to be that bad.

Like, I look at their roster, I'm like, in the West, this is not just no shot at a playoffs team.

But, like,

does he agree with that?

By the way, I do want want to say this about Bradley Beal.

Mark Stein just tweeted something, our old buddy,

adding Minnesota to the list of potential Beal teams, which is really interesting considering they just lost Alexander Walker in part to elevate Dillingham, but Dillingham obviously kind of untested.

That's an interesting one to monitor.

Good job, Mark Stein.

Bradley Beal,

now he only played 53 games.

And you should probably pencil him in for about 50 games because his last, here are his last

six season game totals: 57, 60, 40, 50, 53, 53.

Pretty consistent.

I don't think he played particularly hard last year.

I think that whole son's team was infected by some sort of just like, oh boy, this really didn't work, huh?

Malaise.

He's not some chump, though.

It's not like he averaged eight points a game.

He averaged 17 points a game on 50% shooting, 39% on threes, four assists in a role where he didn't get to run the offense that much.

Like, he can still do enough of the Bradley Beal stuff to be a good player in the right role.

And if Phoenix was just the dead wrong place for him, but like, I just don't, I don't want the dead money on my cap.

And, but, but let's go back to Milwaukee because I wanted to say my piece on this.

I didn't get a chance to do it because we were just in the muck of it.

My initial reaction from a pacer standpoint was:

it's, it's

if I were a fan, I'd be like, oh man, that sucks.

Like, I like that guy.

That guy's grown with us.

He's a pacer for life.

I've watched him play like 500 games.

You feel like, you feel like you know them by that point.

You feel like you know the players personally when you've watched them, their growth, their setbacks, their quirks.

Just made the finals.

But I said from the beginning, like, I think the pacers are justified to think.

And I think they would have paid him had Halliburton not gotten hurt.

I think that's dead 1,000% true.

They go into the tax tax for a finals team.

Is it a little bit grotesquely opportunistic of them to use the injury as an excuse to not pay the tax?

Yeah, it is.

But I also, as a basketball decision, think it's fair of them to say he's almost 30.

He's going to get paid a lot of money.

His shooting is okay.

Like he's coming off a career best 39% from three.

Do we believe?

that that's real.

Do we think that that's somewhat the creation of Halliburton?

He's not like a super high-volume three-point shooter, although he's more so than before.

Really struggled in the last two rounds of the playoffs when the stakes were the highest and the defenses were the best and most competitive.

Is not an intuitive decision-maker on offense with the ball.

And he's going to have to be put in more

positions with a little more optionality to them, a little bit more decision-making responsibility without Halliburton to just stir the whole drink.

The drink is different.

It's a totally different flavor drink now.

It's like a soda.

It was a smoothie.

It's something worse now.

And is he going to look worse as a result?

And defensively, like he's not the same.

And I've been saying this for two years.

This is not a fresh take from me.

He's not the same guy he was in his prime when he was on the fringes of the all defense conversation.

I've said many times, like he's a better offensive player than defensive player now.

His room protection is pretty good.

His defense in space is eh.

The Pacers were were about as good defensively with him on or off the floor in the regular season and playoffs combined, worse in the playoffs.

As Caitlin Cooper tweeted over the weekend, he was quite clearly the fourth best defensive player in their starting fine, but starting five, but behind Nemhart, Neesmith, and Siakam.

Now, he plays the most important position, so his good defense is elevated.

I just don't think it's unreasonable for the Pacers to say, hey, look.

Next year is gone.

It's a gap year for us.

Does it make sense for us to pay this guy this much money in this circumstance when we can try to recalibrate our books and the center position going forward for when Halliburton is healthy again?

Now, that's a big challenge.

Isaiah Jackson, they like him a lot.

Coming off an Achilles tear, we'll see.

The Tony Bradley, Thomas Bryant, combo, whatever.

Do they go small with Siakam and Toppin at the four and the five?

They did that quite a bit in the regular season and the playoffs.

It was a good look for them.

Is it a sustainable 25 minutes a game look?

They just traded for Jay Huff, who, you know, look, nobody watched the the Grizzlies last year.

Jay Huff was pretty good when he played.

He's a good shooter.

He's a kind of surprisingly springy rim protector.

Like, he can do some stuff.

His contract, he's got three years left on a super cheap contract.

We'll see how that goes.

I don't think it's like a,

I think, I think they're going to come out of this looking okay, despite the ire that the fans are going to direct at them and the initial sort of like, it just feels queasy in my stomach.

For the Bucs, and on the flip side for the Bucs,

I don't even remember what I said about the Bucs other than I was stunned that this was the path they took.

I remember saying they have no guards and I think they're still pretty far from being contenders.

I said that.

That's even more true in the light of day than it was when this just happened.

I just keep coming back to this.

Miles Turner just isn't this good.

He's not, this isn't trading for Drew Holiday.

Now, they didn't give up draft picks and all that stuff.

It's not trading for Drew Holiday.

It's not trading for Damian Loader.

Like Miles Turner's fine.

He's a good fit with Giannis.

He replicates like the best of what Brooke Lopez did in the prime of the Brooke Lopez time, although he's not as good a rim protector as that version of Brooke Lopez.

He's just, he's not the savior.

Miles Turner isn't the savior.

Miles Turner isn't going to turn this ship around.

It's really just kicking the can and trying to appease Giannis for X more amount of months.

I don't think it's going to work.

I don't think he's worth all this rigmarole.

And I honestly think we're going to get to the end of this.

And the pacers are going to end up looking kind of reasonable and the Bucks are going to end up looking like we have $20 million of dead cap for this.

Now, cool, you appease Giannis.

I've just,

it's a hard question to answer.

And so I'll just put it to you.

Should they just trade Giannis?

Probably.

And that was probably the answer before all of this happened, right?

It was probably probably the answer the moment Damian Lillard went down with the Achilles.

It might have been the answer before Damian Lillard went down with the Achilles, given his age and given just where they were.

They are kind of stuck.

We talked about this earlier about the idea of like these teams that have been at a championship level before or in recent memory, and then guys get old.

guys you know deteriorate or you lose a key player or two along the way and suddenly you are beyond capped out you're flirting with the the the hard cap as you call it with the second apron and you're just not good enough, and you don't have any obvious path out of it.

And I think that, yes, there's a cost to just appeasing your superstar, right?

We have seen this over the years

in various forms, most notably with various LeBron teams, right?

Where you're constantly mortgaging the future.

But I have always said, and will continue to say, that when you have a player of LeBron's caliber or Steph Curry's caliber or Giannis' caliber or Nikola Jokic's caliber, you are obligated to them, to yourselves, to your fans, to the basketball gods to be all in at all times.

And it doesn't mean to be foolish about it.

I'm not saying that means spend wildly.

And it doesn't mean put yourself in cap hell for forever just for the sake of it.

It should be done wisely, but you do have to

abide by that kind of

mentality, that ethos, that we need to do everything possible for this player and to be competitive.

And if it's enough for Giannis, then it's enough, right?

We can sit here and say it's just not enough.

But if Giannis says,

I'm okay with this, and this buys you another year with me or another two years with me while we see what else you can pull out,

cool, that's fine.

Because keeping Giannis is super important.

So, to answer your question, like,

should they trade him?

So, this actually relates to the Pacers, Zach.

There are times when you and I, in the positions we're in, as commentators on this, as analysts, as writers, as whatever,

we can cleave this thing and cut off the emotion and the fan aspect from the just cold-hearted business decision, right?

You said it, and I agree.

The Pacers are probably going to be proven correct or wise in letting Miles Turner walk rather than paying him that kind of salary, especially given that this next season is already a lost season.

And who knows how long it is before Halliburton, after an Achilles, is back to 100% of himself.

Just because it's a wise decision, just because it's smart and makes sense from a cap standpoint and roster building and all this other stuff, doesn't mean it's not hard on the fans, right?

It sucks if you're the fans to see Miles Turner walk out the door.

It will suck even more for the Bucs

fans to see Giannis traded.

But you and I could sit here and say that that's the smartest business decision or the wisest thing for the Bucs

for the present and the future, but especially the future.

And

it would have been a smarter move than waving and stretching Damian Lillard and screwing up your books for years to come.

Giannis would fetch you an absolute, just mind-blowing shit ton of assets, picks, players, everything.

And the whole league was already ready for that and preparing their offers because everybody thought that's where this was going.

So,

all that said, it's hard.

It's hard.

It was hard for Portland to finally trade Dame Lillard and they waited until he absolutely demanded it.

And I think that that's generally the way you should do this.

You wait until the demand comes.

You don't do it proactively.

I ask because

a few weeks ago, I said, you know, everyone asked the question:

Should Giannis ask out?

And I said, to me, the more interesting question is,

should the Bucks just go to him and say, hey, we think it's best to trade you.

Like, can we work together?

And they should initiate it.

And

I heard a lot of stuff from people in the league saying, you're right.

They absolutely should.

As chilly as

cold and calculating as that seems and depressing depressing as that seems to Bucs fans.

And then I got some pushback from people who were like, Giannis is only 31 years old.

Like, Zach, you don't understand the value of having a top four,

top three at worst player in the league still in his prime in a market like Milwaukee.

You just don't trade that guy.

You go down with the ship the way Presti went down with the ship with Durant.

And the difference is Presti didn't dig and dig and dig deeper and deeper and deeper into the traded draft picks and draft assets grave to appease Durant the way the Bucs have with Giannis.

But

that was like somewhat persuasive to me.

Like, he is only 31.

We're talking about him like it's like ring now or never.

He's not of that age.

But the more I think about it, I just like, I look at this team.

Like, the Kevin Porter Jr.

contract, fine.

He was good for them last year.

Ryan Rollins, they resigned over the weekend.

Fine.

He was good for them last year.

Gary Trent, Gary Harris, Torian Prince, Bobby Portis came back.

It's like, this is just not a good enough team around Giannis.

It's just not.

It's still super light on guards.

And

to me,

I think there are two possible reasons why the organization can't get to that point where they are the ones initiating.

Number one is what I just said.

He's 31 years old.

He's a top three player in the league.

He's beloved in Milwaukee.

He's a buck for life.

He won a title.

Like, it's hard to trade those players.

Number two is they don't control their own picks.

And I just wonder if that's really

if that's a bigger part of the calculus than I'm even conceiving it as, because yeah, you can get all these assets and end up with, let's say, you trade them to the Rockets or the Spurs or whatever, and you get like some players and some picks and end up with like a pretty good team now and a pretty good batch of assets for later, but great in neither timetable.

And also, I still don't control my own picks.

And, but maybe with the new tanking, you know, new lottery odds, new-ish lottery odds, and tanking isn't as profitable.

Maybe it's not as as big of a deal, but it's a hard question to answer.

But anyway, we're not there yet.

Should we talk about some other things?

Absolutely.

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Let's talk about the Lakers.

You wrote a piece on LeBron James today and how we're living yet another summer of LeBron.

Over the weekend, they finalized deals for Jake Laravia, who I already talked about on this podcast, and DeAndre Ayton on a two-year, what, $17 million-ish deal, taking up the last chunk of the mid-level.

Reaction, Mr.

Beck?

Oh, boy.

So, LeBron has not asked out, but would be, as far as we know, but would be justified if he did.

And

I want to start with the, let's start with Aiden.

Let's start with Aiden.

All right, let's start with aiden

what if i what if where i was leading was you signed deandre ayton i'm out of here um

deandre ayton i mean deandre eighten was just bought out by a losing team a losing team said go away

um

you're not buying you're not buying the spin that deandre ayen was like i want to be on a winning team please buy me out

I would like everybody who constructed, hastily, busily, quickly constructed all of their fun graphics about LeBron James setting some sort of like mythological record for most number one overall picks played within his career or whatever the fuck those things were floating around on social media.

Stop it.

Stop it.

The day that you were the number one pick, you are the number one pick, and that's cool, and that's awesome, and it's a label, and it's on basketball reference for all time.

It does not mean you're good.

I think we have enough proof of that.

So stop throwing him in there with Kyrie Irving and whoever else was on that list.

This is dumb.

DeAndre Ayton is a fine, serviceable NBA player who is sometimes motivated and sometimes not.

And

if you're at all curious about why the Portland Trailblazers, a young rebuilding team that is just trying to find good pieces to surround their young guys with and figure out the best path forward, why they would just tell them to go away, read Jason Quick's piece in The Athletic that documented a lot of people.

Which, by the way.

Yeah.

Talk about kicking a guy on his way out the door.

I mean,

every time this happens, I know this happened with Luca too.

I'm just going to say this broadly, and people are going to hate me for it.

I don't think it's fair to immediately put it on the teams to say, well,

let me retract that.

We do our jobs.

Our job is to explain what just happened.

And when a player of note

That has various definitions depending on who we're talking about, but when a player is sent away by trade, waived, whatever, bought out, it's our job to explain it.

And often there's some stuff you're sitting on that you already knew.

Often it's the team wouldn't talk about it until it was time to talk about it, whatever.

Kicking him on the way out the door.

Jason Quick and others are doing their job in explaining why the Portland Trailblazers did not exactly enjoy the DeAndre Ayton experience.

It's fine.

It's fair.

We can all sit here and say, like, oh, they're being mean or something.

This stuff's either true or is it, or it isn't.

Luca not taking care of himself was either true or it's not.

That's it.

When the information comes out, it is secondary.

DeAndre Ayton, according to all of Jason Quick's reporting, was perpetually tardy for things, including I think some of his own rehab appointments, and was just kind of a blah, a burden,

not particularly responsible or attentive or a positive addition.

So if that comes out after you've gotten rid of him to explain why it was time to move on, I don't have any problem with that.

That's just journalism.

Sorry.

I don't think that DeAndre Ayton, given all of that, is the answer to any question that the Lakers may have.

Is he an upgrade from Jackson Hayes?

Sure, who they also brought back.

I don't understand the Lakers offseason to this extent.

You got Luke at midseason.

There was very little more you could do on the fly after that.

You traded for Mark Williams.

You rescinded the trade for Mark Williams.

Fine.

My thought the whole time was

you'll just get the best you can out of Luca, LeBron, and this

supporting cast.

And then you'll revisit it in the summer.

And you'll figure out the best way to recalibrate now on Luca's timeline, but also with some respect to the fact that Luca and LeBron together plausibly should, you know, could be a contender-ish team, depending on who else you have around them.

And they've done nothing except for design DeAndre Ayton.

Well, okay, so

here's their starting five as of now.

Luca, LeBron, Reeves, Hachimura, Ayton.

Off the bench, I think they need Jordan Goodwin, who's on, I think, a non-guaranteed deal.

Laravia,

Connect, possibly.

Hayes,

Vanderbilt, still here.

It's a decent team.

A team that can use Bradley Beal

as well.

So

I already said, like, I bet they're going to come out looking fine on the Laravia-Finney Finney Smith exchange.

I think they kind of botched the Finney Smith situation.

I think Laravia is pretty good and much younger and will fit pretty well with the Lakers.

Also, curious to see what Finney Smith's contract looks like with the Rockets.

I'll just say that.

I've made a lot of fun of DeAndre Ayton.

He's giving himself a nickname, Domin Ayton,

saying at one point, I'm a max contract player.

No one can take that away from me.

Well, someone took it.

It's gone now.

Like, you're not a max player anymore.

I've made jokes about how he gets to the free throw line once every couple of weeks.

Exaggeration, sure.

How his default direction upon catching the ball near the basket is spin backwards instead of go up.

And so I'm a little surprised to hear myself saying this.

But I spent part of my July 4th weekend.

I was like, you know what?

I'm going to go back and I'm going to watch.

DeAndre Ayton's pick and rolls with the Blazers and also with the Suns.

I think the Lakers are going to make him look good.

I think Luca is going to make him look good.

And I think this is going to work better than the jokes guilty is charged and the punchlines and all of that have made it out to be.

I think Aiden will be pretty good for the Lakers.

He's still got great feet and good hands.

He's a creative screener.

And you do see when you go back and watch the film, glimpses,

not enough.

Like people talk about him being a lob threat.

And I said, you you know, last week, I was like, he's kind of neither a lob threat nor a stretch guy.

He's this in between.

I think Luca will turn him into a lob threat or a ring running threat much more so than he's been anywhere else.

Because you see, like, if you go through his pick and rolls, you'll see like, oh, that's a nice hard roll to the basket after a good screen.

Lob dunk.

One dribble.

and attack the basket.

You see a lot of the other stuff, the settling, the spinning away, the let me settle into a post post-up and fade away.

But I think Luca is going to bend him and LeBron is going to bend him in more of, now he's still going to frustrate the hell out of you sometimes, but in more of the right directions.

And

I just like in Portland, he played with Anfray Simons, who's not a good passer, Scoot Henderson, who's not a good enough shooter.

People go under screens on him.

It's hard to get traction as a role man.

Interestingly, when you saw him paired up with Denny Avdia, a tall guy who can pass pretty well, you saw a lot of good stuff.

And obviously with Booker and CP, you saw a lot of good stuff.

I think this is going to work a little bit better than people think it's going to be.

A lot of it's going to come down to defense, and he's just got to play hard and urgently and with total alertness on defense all the time because this team will fall apart defensively if he doesn't.

But I think offensively, he's actually going to look all right.

And

he's got to set better screens.

He likes to slip out.

He's got to mix in more when he just hits people hard.

I think he can do that.

He's also just like a flat-out elite,

like 13- to 15-foot foot jump shooter.

It's a weird little range that he likes, like little jump shots from the elbow or a little bit inside the elbow.

He can hit those at a 55% rate in good seasons.

Those are going to be good, clean shots for him.

I think offensively, the Lakers are going to turn him into, he'll never be the best version of what DeAndre Atten could be because he just doesn't want to be.

He wants to shoot fadeaway jump shots and he wants to fade from contact and all that.

I think he's going to turn into pretty close to the best version of what realistic DeAndre Aten can be in the NBA offensively.

I think he's going to be okay

offensively, defensively, we'll see.

And in space, he's like the thing that

I always describe DeAndre Atten like this.

He's like inches away from being a great player, just inches.

And what I mean by that is, let's say they trap Luca on the pick and roll.

He slips to the foul line, catches the ball, he's open.

He has this one-second pause where, in that pause, pause, in that one second, the cutter from the corner is open for a dunk.

And he looks at him.

And by the time he says, I think I can make that pass, it's too late.

Then he's like, well, maybe I could just dribble to the rim.

And that's closed off.

And he ends up just kicking the ball out to a semi-open shooter who's not really open because the defense is rotated back to him.

And I don't think he's ever going to have that one second.

deprogram from his brain.

And he's so close.

You could just like see it right there.

Like, dude, just make the right decision.

You got it.

Just go go right to the rim.

You got it.

Instead of just holding it and trying to be cool and dribble.

But I think the, I think he's going to be all right with the league.

I think, look, I look on paper, like, that's a pretty good team.

I don't think it's a contender in the West.

I just think the West is too good.

Which brings us back to the LeBron question, which you wrote about today.

It does.

So, yes,

I'll fair on DeAndre Aton, by the way.

Like, you know, there's a reason he was the number one pick.

Yes.

And the talent is there and the size is there, and da-da-da-da-da, and he will be better if he if he fails here with these two dudes feeding him the ball, yeah,

just

go away from life, right?

But there's also a reason, like, the Suns wanted to move on from him, right?

Like, and the Suns were a good team.

He's, he's, you know, he has irritated people at every stop, there's no question about that.

So, I'm, I'm, I'm not

the best case scenario-ish that you that you outlined, like, it's on the table and it's fine.

And the Lakers needed size, and then he can do some things.

Fine.

Are they the fifth best team in the West?

Sixth?

Are they playing?

I don't know where they are, but they're not a contender.

They're not top four.

They're not catching Oklahoma, Denver, or Houston.

I don't know that they're even catching Minnesota and Golden State.

Golden State's done nothing the entire offseason, by the way, other than in this waiting game with Kaminga.

i can't extrapolate the jimmy butler uh portion of the season and say that they're like a 60-win team i'm not allowed to do that i guess i mean they'll be good but it's also like quite an old team like they're dependent on three old guys right now and that's not a good place to be in an 82 game nba no um there's a lot of volatility that goes with it um i'm being facetious but i do think you know at a glance I like what they've got and they're still going to play the Kaminga card at some point, I think.

I'll personally be shocked if Kaminga's on their opening night roster.

So let's see if there's a sign and trade.

We're going to get to that.

All right.

If there's a sign and trade on the, that, that, that manifests sometimes over the next couple of months, weeks, whatever, um, we'll see what that nets them.

It's the summer of LeBron all over again.

And what I wrote on the ringer today was like, like, here we are, and we can lament it.

And we can sit here and go, like, oh my God, oh, this passive aggressive statement from Rich Paul on LeBron's behalf and all this.

Like, one, I think a lot of what was in the actual statement, all the other stuff aside, what was in the statement was actually fair.

Like, the position that LeBron is in.

I don't think it was passive-aggressive, Howard.

I think it was closer to aggressive, aggressive, aggressive, aggressive.

However, we want to describe it.

I think what was in the statement was like, uh, you know, factually fair and defensible.

Whether or not you should issue that statement, it's a whole other thing.

Um,

but here we are.

I meant to write this one line, and I forgot somewhere along the way in my haste and my sleep-deprived state yesterday.

But like, we're going to miss LeBron when he's gone, including this stuff.

I know people say, oh, give me a break, Becca.

We're tired of this.

All the LeBron histrionics, the drama, everything.

The dude is one of the most singularly fascinating players ever in the game, and not just because he's a great player.

It's fascinating.

What's fascinating about issuing this?

What's interesting about this issue?

About this statement.

No, no, no.

So when we talk about like, you know, the mythical face of the league and all this stuff, there's so much more that goes with that, right?

You have to be a great player, but you have to be a compelling figure.

LeBron has never not been compelling.

He has never bored us.

It's true.

Good, bad, otherwise.

Contender, not contender, 10 straight finals, whatever, championships, non-championships, free agency, everything.

He is always interesting.

Always, always interesting.

And there's a reason there's a whole fucking cottage industry of people who have made almost entire careers in some cases out of whether it's trying to mind read and tea leaf read LeBron or just bash LeBron or whatever.

It's because he is singularly fascinating and because to the extent that you can, he has welcomed it, right?

He doesn't always love it, but he has met it head on.

And

yeah, like I to that statement, unnecessary.

Like I say, probably defensible on some level, at least the sentiment is defensible, not the actual issuing of it.

And

LeBron's apparently willing to take take whatever blowback comes with it.

Like we're, he, he makes the offseason interesting in a way that maybe it wasn't going to be otherwise because everything else has been, like, there's been some fun stuff, right?

But we're, we're, we're spoiled in this league.

We're spoiled by, by, you know, the big trades, by, by being blown out of the water by, by Luca on a Saturday night or whatever it was in February.

Not a ton has happened this summer.

And so if nothing else, LeBron has given everybody plenty of fodder to talk about whether LeBron

should be traded.

Let's talk about it.

What do you think is actually going to happen here?

Nothing.

I think nothing is going to happen.

So, did we just talk about it?

Is that it?

Are we done?

I think that the combination of the obvious, LeBron's age, LeBron's contract, the difficulty of making a deal, the difficulty of finding the right place for him.

I'm not even sure he really wants to be traded, Zach.

Like, I ended up talking to a handful of of people over the course of the last 24 hours, including a couple more follow-up conversations this morning around the league.

And the general sense I'm getting from everybody is just outright cynicism or skepticism that

this is actually the

passive-aggressive or aggressive-aggressive trade demand request desire, whatever you want to call it.

He's mostly just venting that this is just putting pressure on Rob Polenko, once again, as LeBron perpetually has

in LA,

to do something so that I, LeBron James, do not feel like this next season and perhaps one more beyond it are spent on a team that's on a Luca-based timeline in which you're a contender two or three years from now as opposed to right now.

I would say, in response to that, of course, I think any team that has LeBron and Luca, and LeBron's still playing at an all-NBA level, the guy made all-NBA second team legitimately last season.

I get the defensive concerns.

I get aging.

You look at it, it's like second team all NBA.

Luca, when he's healthy, is a first-team all-NBA player.

Right.

That should be the basis for a really good team.

I think we agree that they're not anything better than somewhere in the middle of the pack in the West.

So, if that's the case, and you're LeBron and the clock is ticking,

it's fair to have some angst.

It's fair to look at the, for lack of a better term, two timelines that they're traveling on.

And maybe they're only traveling on one.

Maybe they're only traveling on Lukas and LeBron sees that that's very apparent to him.

Because what have they done to be all in as a contender right now?

What have the Lakers done to close the gap between them and Oklahoma and now Denver and Houston?

Have they, and again, it's July 7th.

There's a lot of summer left.

Well, they tried to trade everything for Mark Williams and then they walked it back when they saw his physical.

And so here we are, LeBron sitting here tapping his foot going like, guys,

you know, time's a wasting.

And to him, that probably looks like, well, that's fine.

We have, we can be, we can be patient.

Luke is 26, but there's no urgency here.

And for the first time in LeBron's career, there's no urgency surrounding him.

It's not about him.

And

I get why that is probably ruffling him.

I think there is urgency just because,

like, all this dialogue is like talking about Luke as if he's 22 years old.

He's in the middle of his prime.

He made the finals 14 months ago.

He is ready to win right now.

And there's like, I don't know that the lakers are like taking a like a long long view i think if they found good deals they would move their assets to win right now but back to what actually happens with lebron james who is at worst the second greatest player of all time he he is either doing what he's always done and putting pressure on a front office he's done this everywhere he's been

or

I guess that there's an alternative version here where he truly does want out.

I have not talked to anybody yet who I take that back.

One person said, not only does he want out, but he's wanted out for predating this.

I don't want to go say how far back it was.

I don't know if that's true or not.

But does LeBron actually think that there's a trade out there that is going to resolve this for him?

Where is he going to land?

First of all, let's start here.

You are with a player who is at worst the third best player on the planet as we speak.

Unless you're getting traded to go play with Shay or Jokic,

who else are you going to be paired up with that is going to improve your chances at a title in the next two, three years?

I don't know what LeBron James wants.

I cannot speak for LeBron James.

I can only call people and figure out,

try to figure it out.

And he has not spoken.

I will stick by what I said last week, which is that when I first saw that he opted in,

I was in the car and I just sort of glanced at my phone.

I wasn't driving.

I just glanced at my phone, okay, digested.

I said, okay, this is the same playbook.

Seen this movie before.

He does this all the time, puts pressure on the team, et cetera.

Then the calls started to come in, and I started making calls and I read the statement again.

I looked at his contract.

He said, well, that's right.

He doesn't have a player option for 26, 27.

He's just naked after this year.

That's it.

And I was like, this feels to me more like maybe I just don't want to be on the Lakers anymore.

And I still, it's still on the continuum of typical LeBron putting pressure on, and I don't want to be on the Lakers anymore, it still feels to me closer to the second pole of the continuum:

I actually wouldn't mind being on a different team with a better chance to win.

Now,

now,

had he wanted that, the simplest way to get there would have been opting out of $52.6 million,

becoming a free agent with the ability to sign anywhere for the minimum, for the tax mid-level, for whatever.

He obviously did not do that.

He wanted his full salary.

He got his full salary.

And in exchange for that full salary, he has surrendered a large portion of control over this situation.

I have heard it said on the airwaves that LeBron, quote, controls this situation because of his no trade clause.

Sure, he controls that part of it.

He does not control the broader part of it because he signed a piece of paper that says, I will play for the Lakers for this amount of money next year.

And the Lakers don't have to do anything.

They certainly do not have to do him the favor of buying him out so that he can sign wherever he wants and they can do nothing with the leftover non-flexibility that they would have.

I wonder this, Howard.

LeBron has both lamented ring sculpture recently and less recently than that, talked about

chasing the ghost.

Remember Chasing the Ghost?

The Lee Jenkins article about Chasing the Ghost?

The ghost had six rings.

The ghost is Michael Jordan.

Yes.

Right.

I just want, this is just pure Zach psychoanalysis, whatever.

You mentioned in your story Carl Malone signing with the Lakers in 2004 for the 1.5, some, some,

very little amount of money when he was

one and a half million, which was then the minimum for a player of 10 years more.

Yeah.

And he just wanted the first ring, right?

One ring.

LeBron's got four.

I just wonder if in his, I, to me, I wonder if people, I don't know who in his universe, but like

if if him signing for the minimum in picket, Cleveland, whatever,

feels like almost a cheap fifth ring.

If he feels like, I got to get like, I got to get a Jordan ring, like I got to get a real, like I got to get a Jordan level ring where it's not me almost stacking the deck by signing for the minimum on a team that's already great.

I don't know.

I know he opted into 52.5 million and he's playing for the Lakers and I have heard zero, nothing about any kind of trade, anything in the last week since he did that.

And I continue to look around.

I'm like, I'm not even sure I can find one that really makes sense and is is possible other than the Knicks ones that Waz and I floated last week.

And now the Knicks, having signed Clarkson and Yapuseli and gotten right up to the Itsy Fitzy second apron, are certainly not operating like a team that thinks something like that is possible.

So I don't know what's going to happen, Howard, but this still feels different to me materially than the previous, okay, guys, you better trade some stuff to appease me.

It's materially different because he's so close to the end that Lord knows, like, no, he doesn't have actual leverage or control over the situation,

but the guy can make your life really uncomfortable and himself really uncomfortable.

And then, by extension, his son really uncomfortable who's on the roster and who, again, like, you've, you've manufactured everything you possibly wanted.

You got to the city you wanted with the team you wanted, with the prestige that it had.

You got them to draft your son.

You've got your business there, everything.

Like, I,

there, there really is kind of a point here where it's like, what more can you possibly want or ask for?

And if what you really, really want want right now is the chance to win another title and you don't think and i agree i don't think you have that chance most likely this season with the lakers pending whatever else may happen this summer

if you want out then you should have just walked away you had that opportunity and i i get it it's really funny from a media standpoint where we've the the the road that the media has traveled over the last like 20 30 years where it used to be

guys were castigated for being greedy and putting money over winning.

And then we kind of all flipped around.

And I I think in a mostly healthy way to say, no, listen, these guys are worth more, especially in the NBA with his max salary.

LeBron's worth way more than that 50 million.

He's worth way more than he's ever made

in his career because the system

caps his earnings and he's worth more to the Cavaliers, the Lakers, the Heat, the NBA at large than he's ever made.

Fine,

all true, all good.

But if the players themselves are going to

say, I want to win, winning is the most important thing.

You are in a capped system.

There are limits on it.

And you do have the option

to make the swap, especially if you've made hundreds of millions.

I don't think he's at a billion in career earnings, right?

Just an NBA earnings, but he's over a billion in career earnings when you throw in endorsements and everything else.

If anybody could have ever afforded to say, you know what, it's fine.

At this stage of my career, what matters most to me is not the prestige or the status or whatever of a $50 million salary, but is in fact the chance to win one more ring or more.

And I think I have a better chance to do that somewhere else, that fine, then go do it.

You have that option and you passed it up.

So

at that point, I think the pendulum has to swing back the other way, where it's like, yes, he has earned everything he's made and then some.

And does it suck that he has to might have to make a trade-off of money for wins in this scenario because of the way they're structured?

I guess, but that's just where it is.

And no, I don't feel that much sympathy when a guy's made the kind of money he's made.

If what matters most at this point of your career is the resume and finishing on the right note and maybe chasing one more ring, then go do it.

He had that option and he

passed it up by opting in.

And yes, like I do think the Carl Malone, Gary Payton example is instructive because we just don't see it anymore.

In 2003,

Peyton and Malone kind of conspired in this.

Malone agreed that he'd be the one to take the minimum salary.

Peyton took what was then, I believe, the mid-level exception of $4.5 million.

And the two of them combined cost the Lakers all of $7 million to join Shaq and Kobe in a scenario where they otherwise would not have been able to add anyone anywhere near their caliber.

Peyton was in his mid-30s, still pretty good.

Carl Malone was in his late 30s and still very, very good.

And they came for a song because they both wanted to chase a ring.

And as much as that team is often looked at as a failure because they did not win the championship, they did make the finals.

And if Carl Malone were healthy,

I was going to say, here we go.

There's always always, if Carl Malone were healthy, who knows?

Who knows?

Come on, man.

Slava Medvedenko was covering Rasheed Wallace.

So the Pistons won that championship legitimately, but the Lakers were like

the finals.

Right.

But they made the finals, and they were absolutely dominant before Malone got hurt in December of that season on a freak accident.

But point being, there was a time when.

And when, and these stars made far less money.

Carl Malone's pay cut was from about 18, 19 million down to the one and a half.

Peyton's was at like 12 or 13 million down to four and a half.

But they did it.

They did it because they saw that

they were nearing their end of their NBA careers.

And at that point, winning was more important.

LeBron has the cushion of already having four rings.

I think if he really wanted to, if the rings were the most important thing, Zach, forget 2025.

There's a bunch of junctures over the last few years where LeBron could have decided it was time to move on.

Because he's been frustrated pretty much every year since the championship in LA.

And he's chosen to stay.

And he chose to stay and then have Bronnie drafted there and live out that fantasy.

And that's fine.

Like that, that's his prerogative as well.

But he is responsible himself as well as the Lakers for whatever predicament he sees himself in right now.

I think we're in for a nice until somebody says something publicly affirming the continued union of these two

entities.

I think we're in for

something.

I don't know.

Stalemate.

Is that too strong of a word?

Some housekeeping items.

The Knicks have hired Mike Brown as their new head coach.

We don't know if James Borrego is joining him yet, if the Pelicans will allow that.

Tom Thibodeau watching this wondering, wait, that guy's better than me?

Is that guy better than him?

Is this a good move for the Knicks, Howard Beck?

I have to look at it as two separate moves I don't think they woke up one day and decided we would rather have Mike Brown I think they woke up one day and decided we think that Tom Thibodeau is no longer our best option let's see what else is out there and teams have blocked our number now because we can't even get through to these other teams with coaches we like I mean apparently they woke up one day and said uh we think that Jason Kidd uh quinn snyder uh what's the rest of the list i've already like billy donovan chris finch yeah maybe they maybe they decided that all those guys were better than than Tom Thibodeau.

But

get Nelly out of Hawaii for a second run as Knicks coach.

Nelly's living the best life of everybody.

And seeing Nellie at the finals was awesome.

I like the hire of Mike Brown.

I'm not going to compare and contrast it to Tom Thibodeau, even though that's the thing.

And that's literally.

But you have to.

You have to.

The Knicks made you do it by saying, essentially, we think this guy's a good coach, but not good enough for us to win a championship.

Therefore, we are going to hire a coach who we think can win a championship.

Okay.

Upside of Mike Brown.

I think he is going to be less rigid than Tom Thibodeau with the rotation, with the bench.

I think he might be a better partner for the front office.

Thibodeau, I think, had

up and down.

I think he was actually ironically better toward the end than at the beginning of his time with the Knicks in terms of being in

working with the front office.

I think that Mike Brown has shown in his time in Sacramento, has shown

during his time even on Steve Kerr's staff, Mike Brown is a creative offensive mind.

I know he came in as more of a considered as a defensive coach in his first run with Cleveland.

I think that there is a possibility, or at least there's probably the hope, and I have not talked to anybody

in the last several days.

I would think there's at least the hope that Mike Brown is going to bring a little bit more innovation to this offense and a little bit more dynamism and a little bit more creativity that will also take some of the pressure off of Jalen Brunson to create absolutely everything.

I think he's, you know, on the flip side of it, like Thibodeau, Mike Brown,

leans old school in terms of practice habits, work ethic, his own work ethic.

He is obsessed with the job.

And maybe sometimes to his detriment.

I think he's a little bit more of a lighthearted soul than Tibbs, for whatever that's worth.

Personality can go a long way in your relationships with players and with the front office and the organization.

Um, I think Mike's got a little bit more, um, he's a little bit more fun.

Sorry, Tibbs.

Um,

maybe, maybe you just needed that.

Like, we didn't do the classic go from the hard-ass old school coach to the quote-unquote player-friendly coach and do that

extreme swing.

Um, he's closer to Tibbs than not,

but maybe a slightly more,

I don't know, amenable version.

Well,

this is it for Mike Brown.

This is the job.

This is the job.

This is the

sum of all your experiences add up to this job, job.

Starts off in Cleveland with the LeBron teams, piles up an incredible winning percentage.

No one gives him any credit for it, but instills a defensive identity and all of that.

Flames out with the the Lakers and then the Cavs again.

Goes to Sacramento after the Golden State experience where he absorbs all the vibes, all the Golden State.

We play music and practice, the ball's bouncing around, everyone's having fun.

Whoops, that guy punched that guy.

Okay, we'll get by that.

Minor thing.

Goes to the Kings and, like you said,

leans into

first goes defense.

Like, we got to have a defensive identity here.

Successfully gets them to be a little bit better defensively.

And then actually, that was the reverse.

They did that in year two.

Year one was like, we're going to figure out what we have on offense with Fox a bonus, let it fly a little bit, handoffs, all that.

Had some nice moments in that playoff series against the Warriors, like going small with Trey Lyles at the five and a big moment.

And I still think they win that series if Fox is healthy and not dealing with a banged-up finger on his shooting hand.

But I will continue to say this:

I don't think there's a ton of evidence that if what you're looking for is a playoff

genius tactician to get you over the hump after your first conference finals berth in a million years, I don't think there's a lot of evidence that Mike Brown has a big edge in that specific category than Tom Thibodeau, which is why I think who they surround him with is going to be important.

But I think Mike Brown's a very good coach.

I do agree the vibes will be a little different.

The approach will be a little different.

But the pressure is what, make no mistake, like the job is to get to the finals.

Like, that's it.

By the way, fan duel, I checked the odds.

The Knicks are now the favorites to make the finals out of the East.

Plus 270.

I don't really know what that means.

I'm not a gambling guy.

They have edged past the Cavs who are plus 280.

And then after that, it's a big jump to the Magic and then a bigger jump to the

Hawks.

The Six are still checking in at the fifth best odds to make the finals.

And I think they've had a great offseason with Clark Sidney Dabuselli.

And I think that Kolek and Dadier will get chances.

And I do think there will be a little bit more dynamism and creativity on offense.

I just didn't think, I'm not going to reiterate everything I said during the Pistons series where I was a little bit aghast.

But that's the pressure.

Cam Whitmore got traded to the Wizards.

Any hot takes on that one?

Nice

flyer for the Wizards.

Fine, cool.

They're just collecting dudes.

all kinds of young dudes.

Some of them might actually become the future of the Wizards.

I think it was a great grab by Washy Diddy.

Now, look,

Cam Whitmore's decision tree has one branch.

It's have ball, shoot.

If yes, shoot.

And

he's got to grow some more branches on the decision tree to become a viable NBA player, but he's got size.

He's got athleticism.

He's got some craft, like a little hesitation, change of pace kind of stuff.

in traffic on the pick and roll.

And when he's decisive,

which is not often the case because he likes to dance a little bit, but when he's decisive, he can shoot, he can get to the line.

When he's decisive attacking closeouts, when he's decisive catching while coming off a pick, catching off a pick.

So it's like a dynamic pick and roll, he can do some damage.

It's a long way to go.

He has a slightly negative assist to turnover ratio over two years.

I think it's a good bet by the Wizards.

By the way.

You know, Wizards rockets, purely coincidence that they make this trade.

I do think the Wizards look at themselves potentially as doing a junior varsity version of what the Rockets did, not nearly to the same level, but just we have all these young guys who are lined up with a lot of cap space.

I wouldn't be surprised if they quote unquote overspent a year from now on veterans and tried to just like become competent while their young guys learn the league.

And I don't think they have anyone.

They need to figure out what they have among all these young guys.

There's certainly no Shengun or Ahmed Thompson or or anything like that there yet.

Yet, yet.

I like Detre Johnson Pick.

I like Tsar, all that.

But I think this is their last year of like deep, deep,

deep rebuild.

So Fred Van Vliet to the Wizards, locked in 2026.

Something like that.

Not him, though.

And then lastly, Kaminga, who we've been talking a little bit about.

So I wanted to do a podcast, and I will do it later this week.

I like to sit back and now that the dust is settled, be like, okay, so

what the hell are these teams?

Like, what happened with these teams?

And my list of like, so what the hell is going on with these teams?

Would have been Chicago, which we will do at a later date.

Toronto, Miami, just did a something.

The Warriors, who have done a nothing so far, and the Hornets, who I just like to talk about.

And then I realized, well, like Chicago, Miami,

Golden State.

I guess you'd have to include Sacramento.

I just, it's too depressing to talk about.

They're all sort of in this Kaminga universe

and have had some of their business held up because of it.

He is probably the most interesting non-LeBron chip that sort of left in the offseason.

And I mentioned earlier that I tried to figure out if there was some connection between Beal and Kaminga and the Warriors, and I couldn't really find any connectivity between those things.

And from what I've heard in the Kaminga situation, I'm not sure what you've heard.

This might take a while because I think the Warriors want

real stuff back to the tune of like a decent young player, a first-round pick.

And the team that's getting Kaminga is like, well, because of the base year compensation rules, which are super complicated, there's got to be salary kind of flying around the league.

If we're dumping money to get Kaminga, like the team we're dumping to might ask us for another pick.

And at that point, the price is just a little rich for our blood.

I don't know what's going to happen here.

I don't know if there's any team outside the Bulls, Kings, Heat, if they're even still in it now that they've done this Powell thing.

I guess

they could still be for sure.

You know, the Wizards were mentioned.

I don't think that was ever true.

I don't think the Wizards are in.

I've never got the sense that the Nets are super in.

We could just be looking at a little bit of an old school restricted free agency

standoff here.

Same thing with Giddy in Chicago, although much less acrimonious, because I think the Bulls want to and will bring him back.

I don't know what's going going to happen with Kaminga.

The only thing I know is this.

I don't think either side, the Warriors or Kaminga, wants this to end with him signing the qualifying offer for one year.

I don't think that's a desirable outcome.

I don't know, like,

I don't know what's going to happen here.

I don't know either.

And, and the

corollary to your one thing that you're sure of is that they don't want him signing the qualifying offer.

I'm pretty sure both sides would don't want an outcome, any outcome where he's still with the Warriors, frankly.

Like, I should qualify that.

Depends on who you're talking to with the Warriors, or it depends on

which

influential voice we're talking about.

I think if they offered him a fair deal with nothing else on the market, he would take it for sure.

He would.

As a basketball matter,

as a basketball matter, I think it's pretty clear that Jonathan Kuminga has some really nice talent that would be better served in a system other than that one, in a context other than that one, and with a team team that has less at stake in the near term than that one.

And I think that's got to be, it's obviously abundantly clear to most of the warriors

who matter.

And I think it's certainly clear to Kaminga by now, given the way that he is floated in and out of Steve Kerr's rotation.

And

there's clearly a sense there that whatever talent he has, and he has considerable talent, it doesn't necessarily fit with who they are.

He's not intuitive enough with the ball.

He's

not much of a ball mover.

And

they are now on a very, very, very, very short timeline.

You mentioned the ages earlier,

Butler, Curry, Draymond.

Is it a year left?

Is it two years left?

And I don't just mean on their contracts.

I mean that they're viable as a contender.

And is Jonathan Kaminga helping you get there?

There's no universe right now where they can beat a healthy Thunder and a healthy Nuggets or two of the three healthy Rockets, Nuggets,

Thunder in back-to-back playoff series.

They can't beat those teams.

I'm sorry, they can't.

I agree.

And Kuminga is not helping them do that either.

So I don't know what you're getting for him in a sign and trade deal.

I don't know where he's landing.

I don't know what's coming back.

And I think that that is really complicated, partially because of restricted free agency, partially because, as you mentioned, the base of your compensation rules, partially just because of trying to figure out what what is his value to the team acquiring him.

What are you willing to pay him and what are you willing to give up in a trade?

And then try to figure out the mechanics of it in this very difficult environment with the second apron, et cetera.

So

it may take some time.

I'm going to bet right now as we sit here on July 7th with all this summer to go that ultimately when the wheel stops spinning, Jonathan Kaminga is elsewhere and the Warriors have got some stuff that they like better back.

Yeah, sign and trade is still the leader in the clubhouse on that.

And just to be clear, I think the Warriors could win one of those playoff series.

I meant they couldn't beat two or three of those teams in a row to make the finals or something.

Just last thing, Josh Giddy and the Bulls, who I'm going to talk about them next week.

I just want to say this one thing.

When Scotty Barnes signed the max and Franz Wagner signed the max,

Simmons was like apoplectic that these teams just surrendered and gave their players the max.

And I leaned more toward the, well, that's just what you do for young young players at that level.

You just give them the max.

You don't risk antagonizing them.

And his retort was just like, why?

Business as usual.

I still think that's probably going to be the norm, but I look at the Rockets.

Rafael Stone

has done what a lot of front office people have been afraid to do, which is use the leverage that he has at all times.

Shangoon, significantly less than the max.

Jalen Green, like you're not even sniffing the max, man.

How about this short-term, whatever, three-year, whatever thing?

Fred Van Vliet, we've got a $45 million option on you, $40, whatever it was.

How about we opt out and you sign for $25 a year for two years because there was no market?

I don't think any of those people were like psyched about

their lack of leverage in those situations or their agents.

But I have not heard like acrimony or bad blood or anything that would lead me to believe that there's sort of lasting anything, negativity with the Rockets front office.

In fact, I've heard some agents express like kind of begrudging, like, yeah, he played it pretty well.

And I mentioned that only because

maybe Bill was more right than I was on that one.

And when you have the leverage, you need to lean even harder.

And like the Bulls in Josh Kitty, like they have all the leverage.

And

I'm just curious to see where it ends up.

And I'm very curious to see where it ends up vis-a-vis the Emmanuel Quickley contract, which is a contract that gets talked about a lot around the league.

It's $32.5 million a year, flat as it goes.

And

it's right now, I don't think you could trade that for positive value for sure.

I think there's a chance that Emmanuel Quickley lives up to that contract at some point or approaches it, given the rising cap environment.

But at the time, it was like, yeah, you know, they traded all the OG and Anobi for him.

It's a big deal.

Like, you just give them what, you just do that and you do that.

And like, if I'm Josh Giddy, I look at that as a comp and say, well, I'm, I'm better.

I put up better numbers than that guy.

Give me more money than that.

And if I'm the Bulls, I'm like, well, that's a bad contract.

You should get less than that.

I'm just interested to see where it ends up.

That's all.

But the Rafael Stone thing is interesting, like

the use of the leverage he has.

Any parting thoughts on any of this?

Yeah, I also just think that broadly speaking, because we are still so early in this new CBA, with as you have, I think,

with apologies to certain people, the league office, you have accurately dubbed it the hard cap.

It is functioning that way.

It's really what they wanted it to function as, and it's working.

And it's going to take time for the system to kind of flush out the Zach Levine type deals and some others that were relics of the previous CBA that are.

And it's not that those won't exist anymore, right?

Like teams are sometimes going to go to the extreme to keep their guys happy.

They're going to make a bad bet.

They're going to think their guy's better than he is, or they're just going to be afraid to piss him off or whatever

but i do think that in this environment

you have less room for error than ever and it's more important than ever to properly assess the value of your best player and if your best player is just your best player but he's not one of the best players maybe don't pay him the max just because he's your best player that started happening almost the minute that the quote-unquote max was created back in 99.

Immediately, you know, Bryant Reeves, Antoine Jameson, and everybody else who were the best player on their team got the max because, well, he's our best player.

I guess we got to give him the most money that we're allowed to.

That has been the operating principle pretty much since then.

And I do think we are

in an interlude here, in a period where the system has to rebalance, where teams and players and their agents have to kind of

come to grips with a new reality.

where

I hate to pick on Zach Levine, but maybe the Zach Levine contracts don't exist anymore, where everything gets ratcheted down a little bit and the true max guys still make the max or the guys that you think you're pretty damn sure are going to be worth the max within a year or two of you signing them to it still get it.

But everybody else, they're not one of your best players.

Like there can't be another, pick on Michael Porter Jr.

You can't have Michael Porter Jr.

contracts under the new system.

You can't sign another guy to that, a guy of that caliber to that contract.

Maybe.

Michael Porter Jr.

was really good when he was healthy and they did win a title with him and Jamal Murray

making huge amounts of money.

But yes, he has not been good enough or consistent enough since then.

Howard Beck, what do we got?

When are we on Real Ones this week?

Real ones, we have

Friday.

We'll be back on Friday.

And then we've got one more, I believe, a week from Thursday before we go on our summer hiatus.

And you have a column on theringer.com today on LeBron James.

It's always a pleasure to see you.

We'll be back on the Zach Lowe Show on barring news and Bradley Beale.

It's 243.

Bradley Beal still hasn't signed anywhere or been bought out or anything yet.

We will be back on Thursday.

We were supposed to debut Mets Corner today with Sean Fennessy.

We had to postpone that.

We will debut that on Thursday.

Thank you to Jesse, Jonathan, and Mike on production.

Thank you to Howard for rolling with the punches.

That's it for today's Zach Low Show.

Lot to cover.

Lot to cover.

There'll be a lot to cover on Thursday.

We'll do the

WTF teams on Thursday.

That's it for today.

Thanks, everybody.

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