Your flights will be canceled

Speaker 1 You always think flying can't get worse, and you are always wrong.

Speaker 3 You have traveled out of Houston's Bush airport within the last week. Please tell me what is actually going on.

Speaker 5 Who's stuck at the airports in three-hour lines just to get through TSA? Child, this is crazy.

Speaker 6 This is

Speaker 6 insane.

Speaker 1 Always, always wrong. Tomorrow, the government is going to cut flight capacity at some of the country's busiest airports.

Speaker 8 Here's the Transportation Secretary, Sean Duffy, and his prediction: You will see mass chaos, you will see mass flight delays, you'll see mass cancellations, and you may see us close certain parts of the airspace because we just cannot manage it because we don't have the air traffic controllers.

Speaker 1 Because no one coming to work, because no one getting paid, because shutdown. Coming up on Today Explained, your flight's been canceled.

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Speaker 13 Ladies and gentlemen, this is your captain speaking. Welcome aboard Today Explained.

Speaker 8 We hope you enjoy your flight.

Speaker 14 Please prepare for takeoff.

Speaker 15 My name is Daryl Campbell. I'm an aviation safety writer for The Verge, and I also wrote the book Fatal Abstraction.

Speaker 1 Tell us broadly, what is going on in American airports right now?

Speaker 15 Well, the government shutdown has really affected a lot of the operational behind the scenes that you may not know what's going on if you're on an airplane, but it's absolutely critical to just the normal functioning of aviation.

Speaker 15 The two things that most people will probably experience is, number one, at the security line, a lot of Transportation Security Agency or TSA officers haven't been paid since at the very least the middle of October, if not more.

Speaker 3 They want you there and they don't care what you have to sacrifice to get there.

Speaker 17 Good pay for medication. Good, I pay for my food.
Got to pay for gas to go to work, but have nothing to eat that day.

Speaker 6 It's one thing to say, like, you know, people's mortgages and rents are due, which they are. People have already missed other payments.

Speaker 6 So this is just the biggest one.

Speaker 15 And that's a huge impact because a lot of these TSOs are, you know, coming in. They have to pay for gas.
They have to pay for child care.

Speaker 16 I am a mother of five.

Speaker 18 I'm a grandmother of two.

Speaker 15 I run a single parent household.

Speaker 3 So it's hard.

Speaker 19 It's hard enough just going to work. Now, when you add in not getting paid, that's when you just like multiply the level of pressure.

Speaker 15 And they just can't afford to go into a job that's not paying them. So you'll see things like a number of lanes being being shut down or TSA pre-check not being available.

Speaker 20 At Bush Airport, only TSA checkpoints at terminals A and E are open. At Hobby Airport, fewer screening lanes are open with wait times exceeding over an hour.

Speaker 2 I've been here for four hours. My feet hurt.
My legs hurt. My back hurts.
I'm very tired.

Speaker 15 The other thing is that the air traffic controllers, so the people who tell airplanes where to go and when to land and really just try to avoid any possibility of a collision or

Speaker 15 violent maneuvering because people have to take evasive action or anything like that, those people also aren't getting paid.

Speaker 15 And that means that there are fewer people coming in, and you're seeing these huge delays where either airports can't handle the planned volume of traffic, or in some cases, some airports are operating their control towers or their air traffic control facilities with not enough people at all.

Speaker 18 In Orlando last night, the FAA warned that the airport was close to turning away arriving flights altogether due to staffing issues.

Speaker 13 At 4:15 Western Time, the control tower here at Hollywood Burbank Airport will be unmanned.

Speaker 13 There are no controllers who will be on the job starting in less than 15 minutes due to that government shutdown.

Speaker 14 There's already been a brush with disaster. A Delta flight with 300 passengers was 125 feet from landing in Boston, just as a commuter plane was taking off from an intersecting runway.

Speaker 15 So it's really starting to have a huge impact in just delays and cancellations.

Speaker 1 Okay, this is what you've just told me is terrifying.

Speaker 1 It is also understandable if people have not been paid since October for doing a job like air traffic controller, which is a very, very important job. So let's start with the air traffic controllers.

Speaker 1 How are they responding to this? What have they been doing?

Speaker 15 So what we're seeing is just a lot of air traffic controllers calling in sick or being unable to come into work.

Speaker 5 We are continuing to see spotty staffing issues at air traffic control facilities across the country.

Speaker 21 The three New York City airports have been especially hard hit. And the FIA says on Friday those facilities saw nearly 80% of controllers call out.

Speaker 15 And that usually impacts the level of traffic that can come in. So a single air traffic controller can only handle so many simultaneous flights.

Speaker 15 And in places like New York or Dallas or Atlanta, where there's just this huge amount of traffic, you need three, four, five people at a time, even during your lowest periods of volume.

Speaker 15 So when one person calls out, that means that's a third of your capacity that you just can't handle. And so that tends to compound.

Speaker 21 And this past weekend was the worst for controller staffing since the shutdown began.

Speaker 22 Ground stops all over the country because if you don't have these controllers, you have to slow down the air traffic to keep the skies safe.

Speaker 15 It's not just one airplane that gets delayed. It's also the people who are supposed to be on the next flight because the airplane was supposed to be in another city and another one.

Speaker 15 Some of these smaller airplanes like a 737 like you might fly on Southwest do five or six trips in a day and so when the first one gets disrupted that means all five or six are also disrupted and it just kind of cascades throughout the system.

Speaker 1 Okay so calling in sick is very effective in terms of

Speaker 1 the air traffic controllers saying, hey guys, without us, you're kind of screwed. We talked to you earlier this year about there already being a ton of discontent among air traffic controllers.

Speaker 1 What has been happening with them?

Speaker 15 Essentially, the FAA as a government agency is always trying to fight for scraps on the budget, and it just does not have the amount of money available to hire enough people and to maintain a lot of these facilities that are in some cases 30 or 40 years old.

Speaker 15 So there's already this background of limited staffing and budget that's causing radar systems to go out and satellite tracking to be unavailable for long periods of time.

Speaker 15 Earlier this year, we were talking about what was happening at Newark.

Speaker 21 Controllers there lost both radio communications and a picture on their radar scopes.

Speaker 24 Our scopes just went black again. If you care about this, contact your airline and try to get some pressure from them to fix this stuff.

Speaker 15 You're literally in the middle of the day and your systems go out and you cannot see an airplane that's coming in. So you just basically lose track of it.

Speaker 15 And so that's just what's happening before any of the shutdown stuff.

Speaker 15 Now, if you think about the stress stress normally at air traffic control and just sort of the amount of concentration that it takes to do that job well, when you layer on top of that, gosh, I haven't been paid in three or four weeks.

Speaker 9 Today was payday and we collected a $0 paycheck. Do I put food on the table? Do I pay gas? Do I pay my electric bill? Something has to give somewhere.

Speaker 15 That just creates an even higher level of stress. So consequently, people are totally justified in taking leave to deal with the stress of the job.

Speaker 15 And then I think on top of that, people are also using their bank's PTO as kind of a protest to say, hey, this is really not fair.

Speaker 15 And if I'm not getting paid, then I shouldn't really be expected to do this. So I think we're also seeing a little bit of that.

Speaker 1 Okay, so that's the air traffic controllers. There's also, as you said, TSA agents.
They are also calling in sick. Is it the same story?

Speaker 15 It's pretty different. A lot of them make the lowest rung on the salary ladder in the government.
So an average annual salary of $30,000 to $40,000.

Speaker 15 And if you're living in a high cost of living area like LA or New York or Washington, D.C.,

Speaker 15 I mean, you really don't have a lot of margins. I was talking with one TSA officer named Johnny Jones.
He's here in Dallas, where I live.

Speaker 15 And he was saying that, you know, put yourself in the mind of these TSOs. They got less than two weeks' notice that this government shut down was even happening.

Speaker 15 They're still scheduled out and it costs them, you know, $10 to between gas, tolls, just to get to their job.

Speaker 15 If they've also got to worry about child care or, you know, figuring out if their kid's sick or something like that, maybe they have to go and drive for Uber or a lot of them have second jobs.

Speaker 15 And so maybe they have to prioritize that one.

Speaker 15 And I think that's happening in a much larger scale than it is for air traffic controllers because, again, there's less sort of margin of safety in terms of finances and the fact that just a lot of them have this second job backup.

Speaker 15 So they just kind of switch between the two. But it's really, I mean, I was talking with some people who said there were hundreds of TSA agents who were calling out sick.

Speaker 15 And that's why we're seeing like Houston had, I think, a two or three hour security line. Seeing the same thing at Newark, places like that.

Speaker 1 All right. So TSA agents calling in sick leads to longer lines.
That's a pain in the butt for everybody. What are the risks if they are not there?

Speaker 15 There's a big portion of the TSA experience, let's call it, that's a lot of security theater. Yeah.

Speaker 15 You know, people are not smuggling bombs on the airports. Nobody's going to try and do a 9-11 style attack.

Speaker 15 And in fact, airlines themselves have done a really good job of just developing tactics to stop the next 9-11. So if you eliminate a TSA, if anyone tried to

Speaker 15 do another 9-11-style attack, they just wouldn't be able to because of the policy and the security barriers that airlines have enacted. So I think that's one big thing.

Speaker 15 Now, there are probably other things like scanning for people accidentally taking loaded weapons on an airplane, which I live in Texas.

Speaker 15 It happens a lot, more than you might think, but that's a potential risk. Or,

Speaker 15 you know, people accidentally taking a lithium battery, or there's one guy at the airport last time was trying to take a power drill on. So a lot of

Speaker 15 sort of inconvenient/slash minor security things. But I really doubt that,

Speaker 15 you know, getting rid of the TSA would cause the next 9-11. Now, that being said, I think there's also a level of sort of deterrence that happens, but that's just a hard thing to quantify.

Speaker 15 In terms of the operational impacts, though, I mean, there are still going to be supervisors and plainclothes cops who could step in and do some of this.

Speaker 15 In San Francisco, it's actually not run by the TSA, it's a private security organization. So you could see something like that happen, but it would still be pretty disruptive.

Speaker 1 All right. So after all of this, the shutdown is continuing.
And the Trump administration says we're going to cut flights at some of the biggest airports in the country.

Speaker 1 Daryl, how unprecedented is this? And what does this actually mean for travelers in the next couple of days?

Speaker 15 I can't think of another time that the FAA took such unilateral action across the whole of U.S. airspace since September 11th.
Wow.

Speaker 15 Usually they're focused on a specific area or a specific airport, but for them to say a 10% cut on all flights across the board, I literally, you know, can't think of anything that's been like that since what, 2001.

Speaker 15 And for context, they're expecting about 4,000 cancellations. In a typical day, you'd probably get 300 to 500.
And since the shutdown has started, they've been kind of ticking up to about 700 or 800.

Speaker 15 So this is a huge expansion of the disruption that travelers might face. So a couple of airlines have already kind of tipped their hand as to what's going to happen.

Speaker 15 United, American, Delta have all said international long-haul flights won't be affected. And really what they're probably going to do is cancel the flights that are the little tiny airports.

Speaker 15 So not, you know,

Speaker 15 JFK to LAX or Atlanta to Seattle, but think about things like, you know, South Bend to Detroit or El Paso to Love Field.

Speaker 15 Because if you think about it from an air traffic controller's perspective, an airplane is an airplane, but the airlines have this huge incentive to keep the kind of cash-cow routes, the ones that have a lot of passengers and they sort of invest a lot of money in going.

Speaker 15 So you'll probably see disruption on these smaller regional ones, but it's TBD right now.

Speaker 1 Daryl Campbell of The Verge coming up, believe it or not, once upon a time, American rage over flight chaos was enough to shut down a shutdown.

Speaker 10 Are we looking at a repeat?

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Speaker 7 You're listening to Today Explained.

Speaker 16 What happens is if you're not paying folks, eventually they don't come to work.

Speaker 1 Too true, Burgess.

Speaker 1 Burgess Everett is the Congressional Bureau Chief for Semaphore, and he's here to remind us that there was a government shutdown, the longest in history back in 2019, that ended because of outrage over airports.

Speaker 16 I mean, it's what happened back then, and it's what's happening now as we're seeing some of these frontline TSA employees not coming to work or air traffic controllers, and that makes it more difficult to get people quickly onto their flights, and that can mess up the whole intricate dance of our nation's flight system.

Speaker 16 The 2019 shutdown was a partial shutdown, but that piece of the government, DHS, was not funded, and that's where TSA gets paid from. Right now, we're in a full government shutdown.

Speaker 16 So we have that element as well, in addition to all the sort of more well-known, widespread things like SNAP benefits, military pay, federal worker pay.

Speaker 1 Was it in 2019, was it Americans saying to the government, hey, we don't feel safe flying? Was there a plane crash? Like, what exactly did happen?

Speaker 16 Well, I think anecdotally, this is how members of Congress get around. And so they start to notice this.

Speaker 16 And this is one of the, you know, if you're if you're a senator who's who's busy and going across the country, this is one of the places that you're going to notice the effects of the government shutdown.

Speaker 4 I'm very concerned about security. Many TSA agents are calling off sick in order to go work other jobs because they have to put food on the table, they have to meet rent, all of that.

Speaker 16 There was also, I would say, another piece of that was Republicans were kind of at odds with President Trump overfunding the border wall back then. They didn't think it was a realistic ask from him.

Speaker 16 And they were surprised when he said, I'm not going to sign a funding bill that doesn't fund the border wall.

Speaker 27 We're in a shutdown because Democrats refuse to fund the border security.

Speaker 27 They try and make it like it's just about the wall and it is about the wall.

Speaker 16 So there was a little bit more disarray, I would say, on the Republican side back during that shutdown.

Speaker 16 And so as soon as the president was ready to end it, everybody else in the Republican Party was ready to end it, too.

Speaker 28 The longest shutdown in American history will finally end today,

Speaker 28 which is great news for 800,000 federal workers and millions of Americans who depend on government services.

Speaker 16 Which is a little different than today.

Speaker 1 It is. It is a little different than today.
Today is a little different. There has been this question throughout this shutdown.

Speaker 1 Why do the Republicans and President Trump seem less bothered by the shutdown and by all the compounding effects than one might think? Is this strategy what's going on?

Speaker 16 Well, I would say the president has been really creative in lessening the pain in certain areas, like finding ways to pay military workers during the shutdown, which I had heard multiple smart people tell me this was the moment that the government would reopen is because people cannot stomach the military not getting paid.

Speaker 16 And Trump has made it a little bit less painful by paying them.

Speaker 7 Truth Social.

Speaker 29 I'm using my authority as commander-in-chief to direct our Secretary of War Pete Hegseth to use all available funds to get our troops paid on October 15th.

Speaker 29 I will not allow the Democrats to hold our military and our entire security of our nation hostage with their dangerous government shutdown.

Speaker 16 Now, I think the president's sounding a little bit different right now. He's saying the shutdown's hurting Republicans.

Speaker 30 I think if you read the pulses,

Speaker 30 the shutdown was a big factor, negative for the Republicans.

Speaker 30 That was a big factor. And they say that I wasn't on the ballot was the biggest factor.

Speaker 16 And so

Speaker 16 I do feel like he's acknowledging that it's not good for him politically. I mean, you don't have to be a genius to look at these polls and see that

Speaker 16 it's hurting both parties, but voters are not inordinately blaming the Democrats, as I think Republicans believed they would.

Speaker 1 What do we know about the state of negotiations? What is in play at this point?

Speaker 16 There's been a big thaw over the past seven to ten days. I think a lot of Democrats are pretty much ready to end it, particularly with the elections behind them, with the November 1st ACA premiums.

Speaker 16 Now, public for everyone to see. They think they've pinned that on the Republicans.

Speaker 16 And there's a lot more bipartisan talk.

Speaker 31 The Republicans need to hear what the people are saying because it's clear. They are saying enough is enough.

Speaker 31 There is nothing left for the Republicans to do but get back to work.

Speaker 28 The Republicans got to sit down and talk to us about it. And I agree with Bernie Sanders.
The way to solve this is for Trump to sit down with Jeffreys and I.

Speaker 16 It's interesting, though, what is on the table is sort of what's always been on the table, which is a vote on extending these expiring enhanced premium tax credits for the Affordable Care Act.

Speaker 16 Democrats can kind of pick what they want to have a vote on and get a guarantee from Senate Majority Leader Jon Thune.

Speaker 16 And then a new continuing resolution, which is sort of a stopgap bill that would keep the government funded while negotiations on these full-year funding bills, which Congress really struggles to pass most of the time, would continue.

Speaker 16 So that's kind of what's been on the table for weeks now. I think what has changed is that everybody's sick of the shutdown.
The Senate's been in session for seven weeks. These folks want to go home.

Speaker 16 And now a lot of these key dates are in the rearview mirror. And there's a sense that, okay, it's time to end this thing.

Speaker 1 So as you said, and as we've covered on the show, the Democrats made this about health care. They said the Republicans are going to raise your premiums, and that's why we're standing our ground.

Speaker 1 Open enrollment has started. People are seeing those price increases.

Speaker 1 What do we know about whether or not the public and their thoughts about health care are actually putting pressure on the Republicans to move on this?

Speaker 16 Well, I think the Republicans are pretty darn divided on propping up or anything seen as propping up Obamacare. And that's how they view these enhanced subsidies.

Speaker 23 The COVID-era Obamacare subsidy that they're all talking about is supposedly the issue of the day. It was supposed to be related to COVID and it's become a boondoggle.

Speaker 23 It's a subsidy for insurance companies.

Speaker 16 But the reality is they've lowered people's premiums.

Speaker 16 And so when you get a sticker shock type price increase, which we're seeing all across the country, and it's blamed on congressional inaction, like that's not great for Republicans.

Speaker 32 The Republicans have never done anything anything to correct the problems that exist with it. And I don't think it's an easy thing to fix.
However, it's something that we should have a plan for.

Speaker 32 And Mike Johnson, for a month now, cannot give me a single policy idea.

Speaker 7 And I'm anxious.

Speaker 16 So there's a decent group of Republicans in the Senate and probably a group, you know, we've seen about a dozen or so in the House.

Speaker 16 So certainly enough to pass the House and maybe to pass the Senate to revive these subsidies. But there's a whole other sector of the Republican Party that hates them.

Speaker 16 They think it's bad policy and they think it props up obamacare and anything that they do um to to bring down these uh premiums could be seen as as sort of like helping a failed system that the affordable care act put in place so there's a big division in the republican party that's been kind of simmering behind the scenes that we're going to see um really come out publicly over the next two months as negotiations on whether to extend these things really really heat up because the drop dead is coming up it's really at the end of the year i know that the markets are open now but Republicans have always said there's some time.

Speaker 16 It's a December 31st problem. So I expect this to be kind of a dominant issue over the next six-ish weeks.

Speaker 1 We started by talking about how this shutdown is different. Back in the day, there were pressure points that applied.

Speaker 1 This time, it seems like the pressure points are, for a long time, they were nowhere to be found. What do you think is the legacy of the longest shutdown in history?

Speaker 16 Well, I think it's really going to depend on the midterms.

Speaker 16 And the reason I i say that is the other big full government shutdown of this sort of modern era of politics happened in 2013 it was the opposite on obamacare ted cruz was trying to defund obamacare and alongside a bunch of conservatives and the house and senate republicans kind of got the crud kicked out of them in the polls during that it looked really bad they eventually cried uncle Fast forward a year later, they didn't pay a price for that at all.

Speaker 16 In fact, they had an amazing election in 2014. So Democrats have this in the back of their head.
They're saying, yeah, Yeah, we don't like shutting down the government.

Speaker 16 It inordinately affects our constituents. A lot of them are federal workers in places like Northern Virginia or Maryland or across the country.

Speaker 16 They have in the back of their mind that Republicans didn't pay the price for that.

Speaker 16 Trump hasn't seemed to pay the price for a lot of his controversies, so they don't think they're going to pay the price in the midterms for this.

Speaker 16 So, I would give this about a year fuse because I think if voters are still talking about this a year from now, that's probably bad for Democrats.

Speaker 16 They've made the bet that that's not what voters are going to be talking about. They're going to forget it pretty quickly.

Speaker 1 Semaphores Burgess Everett. Hari Muagdi produced today's show.
Amina El Saadi edited. Laura Bullard is best director and Patrick Boyd is our engineer.
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Speaker 1 I'm Noelle King. It's Today Explained.

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