2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker

Welcome back to the All In Podcast, everybody. I'm your host, Jason Calacanis.
I'll put in a bunch of plugs for the projects I'm working on throughout the show to annoy my co-hosts and continue the grift. But it is 2025, and we are doing our Bestie Awards.
It's going to be amazing today. We've got so much to do.
Today with us again for the second time, a truly amazing Bestie, Gavin Baker from Atreides Capital. Am I correct? Is it Atreides Capital? Atreides Management.
Atreides Management. Oh, Atreides Management.
Okay. Just call it House Atreides.
Nope, that's not getting him in trouble. I pay.
Gavin, welcome back to the program. Let us know, just briefly, what does Atreides do? Thanks for having me here, Jason, Chema, and Dave.
Atreides, we're a crossover firm. We invest publicly and privately in consumer and tech, and we go from series A to mega cap.
Got it. Okay, so you are a capital allocator.
You place bets on technology, on the most important new companies in the world. We'll get into that.
And this is our prediction show.

We did our Bestie Awards.

How big is your firm, Gavin?

Oh, well, you just met the guy, Freeberg.

You don't just ask him how big his firm is.

The audience wants to know, is this guy a player?

Like, what's the deal?

Tell us.

Roughly $4 billion.

Okay.

All right.

So that's about a half an inch bigger than Chamath.

He's really very nice.

Not that he's a size queen or anything. We're going to do a really great prediction show today.
And we're going to do some super predictions this year. Each bestie gets to make a super prediction or two during the show.
And we're going to take those super predictions, Shamath, and we're going to put them on Polymarket. Yes, that's right.
If you don't know Polymarket, there's a prediction market where people can place a wager a bet an investment in one or

the other side and uh there's my image good it feels like it's blurry it's a little blurry that's

the avalanche coming and so i guess is that the maga avalanche what is this avalanche is that

people streaming across the border what's the metaphor here jump up is that the huge orgasm

uh that you're about to lay down in 2025 rocking my friend my friend? No, no, this is a shout out to my friend Ruben Ostlund, who's the director of a bunch of really amazing movies, including the one behind me force measure. There you go.
All right, we did an amazing partnership with Polymarket Freeberg, you want to detail the partnership in some way you I think you help work on it well we obviously have talked to shane at polymarket for some time and we set up a a deal with them where we could put our own markets up on the on the site so we're going to talk about a couple of our predictions this year and then polymarket will post them up on on their site and people can can trade them obviously x us and we're really excited about it because it'll allow us to kind of track how we're doing and give us the opportunity on an ongoing basis to create market so there'll be an all-in section on polymarket where you can kind of go in and see the all-in market it's gonna be really cool awesome fantastic and so we just got we're all wrapping up our ski trip here nick understand there was some footage, some found footage from the Bestie skiing. Is that true? Oh, here we go.
Look at this. Here I come down the mountain.
Gavin, I want you to rate everybody's skiing. Here I come.
Looking great. There comes Chamath.
Looking good. And then here comes somebody.
I think the technical term Joe Lonsdale does for that third person is a beep, beep. Okay, here we go.
And look at this technique coming down. Look at Chamath.
Chamath, you really advanced this last season. Look at him cutting those S-turns, Gavin.
What do you think? I think it's great. Listen to me.
I made a very strategic decision to stop snowboarding so I could learn to ski with my kids. It is so hard to learn how to do something in your 40s.
No, I mean, if you've never done it. But I do appreciate what you and your brother did for me last season.
I learned a couple things. So it's been my third.
Yeah, you were out there with the Black Bomber. My third season.
It was great. I am absolutely amazed at the progress you're making.
Freebird, I'm amazed you made it onto the mountain. You were out there a number of days.

You're getting it done.

I needed new boots, and I tore my MCL last season.

So it got really tweaked when I went out there, but I'm good.

It was great.

I had a lot of fun.

I think I skied four days.

Yeah.

You skied four days.

Okay, I finished my 16th day yesterday, but I took today off just to get prepared here.

Yeah, I got 16 days.

I do the executive program.

Gavin, I go out for an hour and a half to three hours. Zip, runs and i'm done i only ski in the morning yeah that's the way to do it same same same and end at 12 15 have lunch relax get a little work done you need a healthy healthy mix of operate ski and ski gavin how would you compare yourself to what you just witnessed in that video? Your skiing ability, where would you rank yourself?

Clearly, it's me, Chamath, Freeberg in that ranking.

Where would you live in the ranking?

Well, I would say I'd make two observations.

First, like I'm in the bottom percentile in terms of natural athleticism.

Okay.

But I do have many, many thousands of hours skiing.

Great.

Okay.

And I would just leave it at that. Yes.
Oh, wow. Well well then we'll be going out with you next year new bestie all right we got to get to it we're going to start off with politics gentlemen we got to keep this moving because there's so many predictions we're going to do our 2025 prediction for biggest political winner now last year well yeah i think we got it kind of wrong.
Friedberg, you said independent third party in the US. And we did see some of that with,

you know, the breakout of Robert Kennedy, maybe. Chamath, you said independent centrists.
We didn't

get there with that one. And I said dark horse presidential candidates.
Maybe I get a quarter

point credit there with... Wait, hold on.
What do you mean we didn't get there? Independent

centrists won the election for MAGA. Independent centrists won the election? Really? That's It's a very good idea.

It's a very good idea.

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It's a very good idea.

It's a very good idea. It's a very good idea.
It's a very good idea. It's a very good idea.
It's a very good idea. dates maybe i get a quarter point credit there with wait hold on what do you mean we didn't get there independent centrist won the election for maga independent centrist won the election really that's what you believe yeah okay i didn't think that it was the independence but okay i think independent centrist swung the election for biden in 2020 and then i think they swung the election for trump in 2024 huh is that statistically correct you think freeberg? You about that? Independent centrists did the election? Gavin, what do you think? I think it's right.
I think there are a lot of people, not just centrists, but a lot of people who had been lifelong Democratic voters who voted for Trump. So I do think Trump won the centrists.
Trump won everything, essentially. Yeah.
Okay. Shabbat, who's your prediction for the biggest political winner of 2025? My biggest political winner for 2025 are fiscal conservatives.
I think that we are going to test a very important concept in 2025, and I hope it works, which is that of austerity. And the reason why austerity has to work is that the only thing left after austerity is to cut entitlements.
And I think that in doing this, we're going to figure out how much waste, fraud, and abuse exists in the United States federal government. I think that that's going to spill over to a lot of state elections.
And I think that the fiscal conservatives that have been clamoring for a more restrained approach to spending will have their day in 2025. Okay.
Fiscal conservatives from Chamath Freeberg, who's your prediction for the biggest political winner of 2025? I also took a class-based approach. I chose young candidates.
So Trump's cabinet picks have an average age of 40 to 45 years old compared to the Biden cabinet where the average age is a little over 59, almost 60 years old. And I do think that this marks the beginning of a new trend in the kind of age range of political candidates shifting younger.
So I think that this is something we should expect as candidates start to emerge for the midterms by the end of 2025. We'll start to see younger new names start to pop up that deliver resonant messages and aren't part of kind of the old guard of, you know, the aging political class.
So I think that's a trend that's kind of underway now. Excellent.
Young candidates. So we've got fiscal conservatives, young candidates.
Gavin, what do you got for the 2025 prediction for biggest political winner? I would say Trump and centrism. For my choice for 2025's biggest political winner, I went with something similar to you, Friedberg.
I said Gen X and the elder millennials. If you look at the notable Gen X appointments, you got Elon with Doge, you got Sachs, obviously, Marco Rubio.
My God, it just goes down. And then if you look at the elder millennials, J.D.
Vance, Vivek, Tulsi, just a lot of young people. And this is going to be absolutely fantastic, I think, because they're going to start thinking not just about themselves, as the boomers are doing with social security, taxes, real estate, all the different issues that they tend to pick for themselves.
They're going to start thinking about maybe their own kids and themselves. So yeah, it's obviously a sea change is underway.
So there you have it, folks, for our predictions for political winter. Let's go with political loser here.
Prediction for political loser. We'll start off with you, Gavin.
We'll do this a little round robin here. We'll snake it around.
Gavin, what do you think? Who'll be the biggest political loser of 2025? I think Putin. I think Putin is going to lose bigly.
So if you were Xi Jinping, you know, Xi Jinping,

Russia is a client state of China at this point.

And if you're Xi Jinping,

what is happening is now a disaster for you

because Europe is starting to rearm

and which will only accelerate this year.

That will allow America to take resources out of Europe

and put them in Japan and South Korea and all over the Pacific. And that makes it a lot harder for you to do what you most want to do, which is reunify China and Taiwan or invade Taiwan.
Let's call it what it is. And I just think Xi is going to begin decoupling from Putin.
If you're Trump, you want to show that you're independent, that you're not enthralled to Putin in any way. So, I think Trump is going to be a lot tougher on Putin than people think.
And I think he's going to get a deal that's very, very bad for Russia and Ukraine. And, you know, you've lost half a million people.
And for what? For what? Exactly. And it's a thousand, over a thousand days into this.
Nobody from the West, you know, in NATO or America, no soldiers have lost their lives from our side. We've just given them weapons.
And so it's a humiliating defeat so far for Putin. I agree with you.
Freeberg, your prediction for the biggest political loser of 2025. Freeberg's prediction.
I'm going to predict the pro-war neocons who are going to go head to head with the J.D. Vance and Elons and others of the world.
And I think that they're going to lose. And I think that there's going to be

this kind of big crack in the establishment

of this neocon movement

that's been very pro-conflict around the world.

And we've heard it in the speeches

and in the commentary from JD and others.

And I think this is going to be the year

that it's all going to kind of come to a head.

I think they're going to end up on the losing side.

Can I take the other side just a little bit? So that's why you're here. Yeah, yeah.
I think it's right in reality. But I think Trump said something very interesting about John Bolton.
He said, the guy was absolutely crazy, but it was awesome having him in the room when you were negotiating deals because people looked at this guy looking angry, red in the face, so excited to hit the nuclear button, so excited to go to war.

And you ended up with much better deals. So I think you're going to see probably a lot more bellicosity from the Trump administration than anyone expects.
And that's just to get a good deal for, you know, between Russia and Ukraine. And then it's to get China to kind of decouple from Russia.
So I think the in reality, I think you're right, David. But I think there will be a lot of rhetoric that is at odds with what you're saying before you end up being right.
We already see it with Canada, with NATO, with Taiwan. There's a lot, you know, we're going to do this or this.
The tariffs, obviously, there's just a lot of very aggressive posturing leading up to the negotiations that are hopefully going to get the US good deals. We'll see.
Shamath, you have a prediction for your 2025 biggest political loser. Prediction, it's hard to do.
The biggest political loser of 2025 is going to be progressivism. So November of last year, right after the election, I flew to London and went up to Oxford and I spoke at the Oxford Union.

And my speech was a full-throated defense of MAGA.

But it was mostly an explanation of MAGA. And it was sort of the antidote to progressive instincts that had been riddling the Western G8 countries and was starting to basically come on gun.
And when you look at what's about to happen in 2025, in Canada, Justin Trudeau is going to lose massively to Pierre Polyev. In Germany, AFD looks like they will win.
In France, if there's a deadlock and it goes into an election, more than likely Marine Le Pen is going to win. And then in the UK, where you see this unfolding child rape scandal, where allegedly upwards of hundreds of thousands of young girls over the course of 20 plus years were being raped by organizations of Pakistani Muslim men who were then not prosecuted for fears of stoking Islamophobia, as it turns out, by the current Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
And if all of that comes to pass in the UK, I think you're going to see the Labour government fall, and I think you're going to see Nigel Farage win. So what do all of these countries look like by the end of 25? It's very much a repudiation of this class-based identity politics, and I think that has enormous ripple effects all throughout the world.
And so I think the biggest political loser for 2025, I think, stands to be progressivism, quote unquote, what we labeled progressivism. I took something very similar.
I said the racist vocal minority of each one of these parties. And there's a little bit of this on either side.
You have DEI on one side, and then you just have outright racism on the other side. And it's probably 5% of MAGA and 5% of the left.
And just to recap last year's political predictions, for 2024, our predictions for political loser was, I said Netanyahu, Freeberg, you said Ukraine, and Shemath, you said the Koch family, the GOP donors. Nailed that one.
I nailed that one. Freeberg, any thoughts on last year's? Who lost on the Republican side more than the Koch family, do you think? I mean, explain for the audience who maybe aren't as deep into it.
Well, I think essentially 2024 was the end of the Republican Party as we knew it. And I think what stands in its place is what I would call the MAGA reflection of a coalition of people that will be housed under the label of Republicanism, which is to say that these folks aren't necessarily Republicans.
These folks are believers of the MAGA philosophy. They're just using the Republican vessel in order to run their candidates and get elected.
And in that overturning of the status quo, So what you had was this one family who was at the center for the last few decades of political machinery that essentially decided candidates, that it decided agenda, that it decided policy, and that was the Koch family. And they spent an enormous amount of money to get that, which they stood up, frankly, literally the day after Citizens United happened in the Supreme Court.
And I think that in that lens, those billions of dollars of investment have essentially gone to zero, because I don't think it means much of anything anymore. And if you look at the new class of donors who will decide, quote, unquote, Republican policy, it's going to be the Miriam Adelson's of the world, the Elon Musk's of the world.
And that's very different than how I think the Kochs used to decide things. Do you think there's too much money in politics now, Gavin? I think there's too much money in politics now.
it's a good question

you know Um, it's, it's a good question. You know, I might feel very, very differently if I didn't agree so profoundly with, with the largest donor in this political cycle.
Yeah. I would say the reality is, is like the, the, the money, as long as the money raised on each side is roughly equivalent, I don't think it really matters.
That would be my take. You just want some equivalence.
That's all. All right.
Let's do our 2025 predictions for biggest business winner. Freeberg, why don't you start us off? Biggest business winner for 2025.
What's your prediction? So I feel like we're at a really interesting inflection point that is going to make 2025 the year of autonomous hardware or robotics if 2024 was the year of kind of compute build out and the rollout of ai systems in software i think 2025 will be the year of. You know, there's a company we just placed an order today, actually, out of China called Unitree.
Gavin, have you looked at this company? Yeah, it's pretty wild, actually. It's an incredible business, incredible product.
So their GO2 robot is $1,600, has an API. Here it is.
You can run a payload on it.

It's got LiDAR on it. It's got kind of intelligence guidance systems on it.
This is the robot system

that was used on some of those videos we looked at earlier this year where there were machine

guns mounted to the back. And it was basically a new kind of field soldier.
It's an autonomous

field soldier. But really, you can use it in scientific applications.
We're looking at using

them on our test farms where it can wander the farm and take images and report data back to us. And at such a low cost, at like less than $3,000, you can do some incredible things with it.
So this business just raised a couple hundred million dollars last month from mostly Chinese investors to Chinese company. And I think that there's going to be other similar type businesses.
similar type businesses, you know, kind of takes a long time for things to work. And then all of a sudden, they happen faster than you could have ever imagined.
I think this is going to be the year where we're all going to look at humanoid robots and autonomous systems and be like, Oh, my God, I can't believe this is here. So this could be the year.
What a good choice. Such a great, strong choice for the biggest winner.
And I think the quote you're looking for is, how did you go bankrupt? Slowly and then all at once. That's how these technology changes.
I'd met. I would love to have one of these for the ranch to just run around and do the perimeter security.
Sorry, Nick, pull up the... You guys got to watch this if you haven't seen it.
Nick, find the video of the GO2 with the wheels on it, managing terrain. Oh, yes.
And everyone thought this was a BS video, that it was like CGI wasn't real. It was AI generated.
But like this thing is just incredible. Here it is.
This is a real video of this thing. Yeah.
And it can learn from an LLM too, right? Like a large language model could teach it how to do something. Yeah.
Gavin, is this real? Like what's your sense on this? Yeah. Yeah.
I want to get the G1, which is their humanoid robot. Yeah.
So pull up the humanoid. It's really cool.
Yeah. It's a little more expensive.
Yeah. Yeah.
I mean, $16,000 is the cost of a used Prius. Let's be honest.
That's in spitting distance of being affordable for the middle class. So here's the G1.
Look at this thing. 16 grand.
And this thing, you can, you know, you can basically command it to do things for you in your house or in your factory or in your workplace oh come on i knew you would do it oh come on i was gonna say maybe we could get a poker dealer maybe bow you know i wonder if this thing could deal do you guys remember do you guys remember that robot that was on stage for our all-in holiday yes spectacular one x so my my brother made an observation he said as soon as that robot came out it's like everyone just wanted to abuse it he's like humans have this very interesting nature where like the robot emerges and all that humans want to do is like hurt the robot it's like a very strange revelation of human behavior yeah like it just it's like oh here's something i could dominate can tell it. Well, that's because we're so threatened by it.
We want to make sure that we're at the top of the species here. And it doesn't feel like it's going to be for much longer.
I mean, these things will kick our ass pretty soon. Anyway, these things are amazing.
I think this is going to be the year of the robots. That's my prediction.
Year of the robots is your prediction. I love it.
Gavin, what do you got? Profoundly agree. I think you're the robots, inclusive of FSD.
You know, I think FSD works today, and it's gonna, it's, it's gonna cross into mainstream adoption, where I already notice, particularly if I'm taking an Uber late at night, I really, really prefer to have a Tesla. Just sometimes you get an Uber driver who's tired.
And I just feel a lot safer if they have the FSD running. And then obviously, using it for yourself is amazing.
But I think it's going to continue compounding at an accelerating rate. I think that in a lot of ways, what I'd say broadly is, I think for a while, it's going to be big businesses are winners, big businesses that use AI thoughtfully.
The reason is that with what is happening, what O3 showed us, OpenAI's new model, a combination of reasoning and test time compute. like I think you're if you're a big business and you can pay a million dollars to let an AI think

for of reasoning and test time compute. Like I think if you're a big business and you can pay a million dollars to let an AI think for six weeks about the most important question for your business, that's gonna be a profound advantage relative to small businesses that can't afford that.
And by the way, we are the other, like inference compute is gonna be be the kind of derivative winner of that. We're going to run out of GPUs, accelerators, compute in 2025, the same way we did in 23.
Okay, so you're also long NVIDIA and chip makers, Grok, etc, because we're finding new uses for all that compute. Absolutely.
Okay, very good. Chamath, do you have a prediction for your biggest business winner of 2025, sir? I think the biggest business winner of 2025 are going to be dollar-denominated stablecoins.
I'll make two points. In 2024, two critical things happened.
The first is that stable coins essentially became uncoupled from crypto volatility, and it started to be used for wholesale useful functions in running businesses. And there's an image here that starts to show that.
So independent of crypto volatility, what you saw were stablecoin usage just rising up and to the right. That's an incredibly important decoupling that happened in 2024.
The second, and this data is still just trickling in, but it's an incredible stat. Stablecoin usage at the end of the second quarter of 2024 was about 1.1 billion transactions that summed to $8.5 trillion of transaction volume.
If you compare that to visa over the same period, it was more than double Visa's transaction volume. So I think what we have now is something that has fundamentally crossed a point of no return.
Similar to how last year, I thought that the big trend was going to be Bitcoin in 2024. I would say that the big trend in 2025 is stablecoin usage.
I think we're going to finally attack the duopoly of Visa and MasterCard. I think you're going to see an innumerable number of use cases that sit and use stablecoin rails.
I think when Donald Trump becomes president, I think you're going to see him go after incredibly high credit card transactions and costs. You're already seeing cracks in consumer credit anyways, because of these high APRs.
All of this stuff is going to come to a head in 2025, I think. And I think stable coins could quadruple or quintuple by the end of 25.
I think it's just going to be an enormous market. Great choice.
Should they be regulated? Chamath, we saw at some of these congressional hearings, Tether was kind of dragged for being the primary transfer and monetary tool for terrorism, for getting around sanctions, and for human trafficking? Should it be regulated? And how? I don't think I'm qualified to say how it should. But I think the point is that there are these immutable logs that sit in between and on either side of all of these transactions.
And so I think the knowledge is there. And there are a whole bunch of third party services that add that intelligence layer.
I think the thing to really question is, if you just took 300 basis points of drag out of the global economy, how valuable would that be? And I think it would be valuable just in the United States alone to the tune of a trillion dollars. The idea that you wouldn't do it at this point is somewhat quizzical to me.
I just think that the economic justification for this now is just so profound. Gavin, let me ask you a hard question there as well.
Should the United States government give up the, let's face it, they have a bit of a stranglehold, they've got a bit of a monopoly on US dollars. These things are a competitor.
And we were sitting here on this program for the last couple of years talking about the BRICS and them starting their own currency. Aren't these in some ways similar to that? And they would take people off the USD standard? How do you look at that? Because that is the criticism that some people in power have put forward.
I do think that they might be very good for the world, but I do think they would be very bad for America if they replaced, if some constellation of stable coins became the new reserve currency, it is such an advantage to be able to borrow in your own currency and to give that up lightly. That means you control the real size of your debt at all times.
Oh, wow, we have a big debt? I mean, this is a little bit like what we just did. Let's just have, let's just let inflation run hot.
And oh, wow, that debt's a lot smaller than it was. Effectively.
So I think it would be a big mistake. Freeberg, you have any thoughts on it? We've been talking about currency here a whole bunch over the last couple of years.
Any thoughts on stable coins and just the monopoly we have on it? I don't know enough about stable coins. Well, that'll be one of our big topics for the year.
And we should definitely invite Jeremy Allaire from USD on or USDC USDC. Jeremy Allaire.
I mentioned, by the way, that I had this small little product that I exposed to the world, which is just our research. And we sit it on top of Substack.
Again, the tools aren't very good. And we use Stripe.
And Jeremy reached out to me and he's like, I'll just rebuild all your payment rails on using US dollar stable coins. And it's a no brainer because I'm spending hundreds of thousands of dollars in transaction

costs. your payment rails on using US dollar stable coins.
And it's a no brainer because I'm spending hundreds of 1000s of dollars in transaction costs that now I can just save and use to hire somebody else or just pay the team more. And so I just like paying 10% to sub stack and the 3%.
Yeah, if it's obvious for me, it's obvious for everybody else. All right, my biggest business winner prediction for 2025 is

Tesla and Google. I think this is going to be the year of AI and robotics, obviously.
But I am just absolutely amazed at the comeback that Google has made with AI. And I'm absolutely in awe of what Elon did with Colossus.
If those of you don't know, Jensen Wang, Michael Dell, they all obviously participated in building out XAI, and they were shocked. They couldn't believe that they stood up 100,000 GPUs in under 45 days, was it, Gavin? Yeah.
Something in that neighborhood. It was a tremendous effort.
But that's not Tesla, right? Is that Tesla? Well, Elon, Tesla, XAI, and Google, that cohort who are investing heavily in AI, those two specifically, those two three names, I think are going to be the biggest winners next year. They're going to come out with some things that people didn't anticipate.
I don't think people are anticipating what Google is going to come out with because Gemini deep research, I keep telling people this and I'm using the app, is so impressive. Drop what're doing right now pause the podcast download Gemini, and just start playing with deep research on your desktop pay the 20 bucks for it.
It is mind blowing. It blows anything else in the market out of the water period full stop.
It is a step function higher. All right, I'll just leave it at that.
Jason shouldn't you just go into the vibe of the podcast? Should you explain what it is? What? Yeah, sorry. Okay, so what it does is good.
Good. Good.
Yeah. If you wanted to create a model, let's say and I did this where I said, hey, make me a model based upon what it would take to replace all the cars and trips in the United States with full self driving cars, what would that cost to do? And if you ask that to chat GPT or grok or, you know, Claude, it's going to give you a decent answer.
What deep research does is it goes in, it figures out what the sub components of each of those questions would be. And then it fires off multiple threads.
And then it searches the web in real time, which Google is extremely good at. And then it summarizes it, gives citations, and it produces a report that looks like something that Gartner Group, McKinsey, Boston Consulting Group would have spent, I don't know, 30 days on Gavin and a million dollars, a half million dollars.
It's bonkers how good this is. But the amount of compute it takes is extraordinary.
That's why ChatGPT released something similar. That's 200 bucks a month, the 01 Pro, I think they call it.

And then this one is like 20 bucks from Gemini.

Anyway, given what Google has access to, YouTube, your G Drive, your Google Docs, etc., your Gmail, it's going to do things that you wouldn't anticipate.

Like if you were asking this question, it might look in your Gmail for possibilities to answer those questions, or YouTube videos of channels you subscribe to. So this is going to I think knock people's socks off and solve problems that people didn't know they had.
Is that a pretty good explanation, Gavin? Yeah, it's great. For last year, our predictions for business winner, Chamath said bootstrapped or end or profitable startups.
I think that's a really great pick. And that came to pass.
We're seeing some of those go public and raise money at higher valuations or not go out of business. Freeberg, you said commodities businesses.
I'm not sure how that did. Do you know? Did you check in on that? Pretty flat.
Yeah, we didn't have a lot of the inflationary pressures that I think were underlying that thesis. So got it.
It ended up being, I'd say, a loser relative to other indices you could have bought this year. I said training data owners like Reddit, New York Times, Google, etc.
Reddit stock up to 24% in 2024. And they launched their own Reddit answers.
Yeah, I think I got that one. New York Times stock is up as well.
And they fired off that lawsuit with OpenAI. All right, now we're going to move on to the 2025 biggest business loser predictions in 2024.
Shamath said pro sports teams because they hit peak valuations. That's looking like a pretty good prediction.
Freeper, you said vertical SaaS companies because of AI disruption. That's another one that seems like a great prediction.
I said smartphone manufacturers, Apple stock was up 30% in 2024. But I think we've all seen that these smartphones aren't advancing.
And people are taking their times the sales of those are down services are up. I would take the other side on pro sports teams.
It feels like that market is about to be institutionalized. And funds are going to start buying pro sports teams.
Okay, that ultimately, and ultimately, capital markets have way more resources than kind of the wealthy individuals who've done it for now to date. So I just think it's the amount of money that can go after pro sports teams is about, you know, 10x, 100x.
No, I think you're totally right. The reason I said that last year was it was pretty clear to me at the time.
And the NBA was the canary in the coal mine that there was a viewership problem in professional sports. And specifically in the NBA, the game has devolved into essentially rebounds and dunks or three pointers.
And the issue with that is that it becomes just meaningfully less interesting to watch. At the same time, because of the fact that the TV deals are really what determines the discounted value of these sports franchises, the TV deal was so enormous that it creates no reliable rivalries anymore, because people will hopscotch teams almost every year, because the compensation that they can get is just so obscene, quite honestly.
And I think what happens is sports will have a decent run until the next TV deals get done. And I think if you, for example, take pharma ads outside of TV, so like that pool shrinks, if you have less viewership, and so you can sell the remaining ads less effectively, because there's just fewer of them.
And then there's fewer buyers, and it shrinks yet again, then the dollar pool that the television networks and the streamers are going to be willing to pay for sports will go down. And the group that will be the most price sensitive are exactly who you said, Gavin, meaning the non-trophy buyers.

So like, you know, when I bought into the Warriors, I bought it purely as a trophy asset, and I was price insensitive. But I agree with you that now that you have the PE firms on the cap tables of these sports franchises, those folks are all DCFs, those folks are all Excel models.
I don't think that they're buying things for emotion. I don't think they've grown up thinking, I want to own this thing, not using institutional LP dollars.
So I just think that's why I said that in 24. So I just- On behalf of Phil Hummuth and I, we appreciate you made that vanity investment for the number of times we got to sit in your court side seats.
Yeah, because I never went to the games. We made with NBA players.
I never went to the games the games i should have gone to more games i went to your games and almost got thrown out of your

seats i got a red card one time it's true is it true you did oh you don't know i got a no i got

a call i got a call i think it was from the warriors or it's from the nba something to the

effect of this guy that was sitting in your seats was almost kicked out and i said excuse me because

i knew that it was the next game in fairness and and he was like jawboning our own players

Let's go. this guy that was sitting in your seats was almost kicked out.
And I said, excuse me? Because I knew that it was Jason. It was the Knicks game, in fairness.
And he was like jawboning our own players. I was getting into it with Bogut and with David Lee.
It was unbelievable. I told Steve Kerr, listen, you're up 30 on my Knicks.
Sit these guys down. This is Bush League.
What if Steph Curry gets hurt out there? And Bogut told me to shut up on Andre Iguodala. Bogut told him to basically go pound sand in a more cold.
He basically did. It was the funniest thing ever, Gavin.
This is what happens when you get there. Bogut's one of our friends.
He's one of our good friends. So that's why it's so funny.
But they come over, Friedberg, and they tap you on the shoulder. I'm with my wife.
She's mortified. And the guy hands you a card.
And the card says you've been uh warned one time and one time only about abusive you know uh behavior if we have to warn you one more time you will be escorted out so i look at the guy and i say but and he goes read the card i read the card i say he goes gives me a thumbs up that was it i never was it you're not supposed to then three years later i'm sitting in the same seats i'm interacting with draymond during the finals games and then everybody's hokey dokey with it when you say interacting what do you mean when you say interacting hold on gabin wanted to make a point about what i just want to just just come back to because i for sure these private equity guys are dcfs the nba has been terribly managed i think LeBron said they have a big problem. And I'd separate the NBA is the worst managed, NFL is probably the best managed.
But the one kind of counterpoint I would say on the TV rights is Google bought Sunday ticket and are extremely happy with it. Amazon and Netflix also both bought NFL games and are really happy with them.
And so I just think those three companies, it doesn't really matter to them if pharma ads go away. In 18 months, you're going to be able to dynamically create an ad for each individual person and show it to them.
And if you're a high value user with, you know, that Google knows that you're about to book a vacation, they'll dynamically generate whatever hotel destinations you want and show click here. So I just think sports, as long as they command the eyeballs that they do, and for sure, if the NBA doesn't fix it, the value of those franchises will start to decline.
But just the fact that all of the biggest tech companies are so happy with the sports kind of rights that they bought, they're going to buy them all. Every sport will go to one of those companies.
I can't understand, Gavin, maybe you're closer to this, but why wouldn't Apple, Amazon, or Google just back up the truck to the NBA and say, we'll take the whole thing.

And then anybody who's got an iPhone gets the NBA for free. And then everybody else has to pay.

And they figure it out in the back and they lose a, you know, 5 billion, they make 2 billion, who cares? It's a rounding error for Apple. I agree.
And they, you know, I mean, they all,

all except for Apple, really, and Apple, they have, I think, an MLS deal, but they all kind

of stuck their toe in the water. And I think they feel like, wow, the water's warm.
Let's dive in. Okay.
Yeah. And the new deal is an 11-year deal for the NBA.
So these things don't come up that often. But we'll see over time.
Maybe somebody will buy one of these media companies and inherit them. Okay.
Biggest business loser for 2025. What's your prediction, Gavin Baker? Government service providers.
You do not want to have the United States government at any level as over 35% of your revenue. Good choice.
Yes, obviously, in the age of Doge, they might not be spending wildly and they might actually look at the bill. They might check the bill.
Crazy thought. Crazy thought.
Yeah check the bill you never know who do you predict will be the biggest business loser of 2025 well this is a little bit precarious but i don't know what the percentage drawdown from here will be, but I think when we look back, the absolute dollar drawdown of the MAG7 will be in the trillions of dollars. Okay.
And the reason is not necessarily because of the underlying fundamentals of these companies.

But I am a little bit worried, and I tweeted this a few days ago, about just the general

concept. necessarily because of the underlying fundamentals of these companies.
But I am a little bit worried, and I tweeted this a few days ago, about just the general concentration of the top 7, 8, 9, 10 companies in the indices. I think it's approaching 40%.
And I think that when you look at these historic concentrations, they've generally foreshadowed a big drawdown. And unfortunately, I don't see how you can sort of, you know, inoculate yourself from that risk.
So independent of the quality of these companies, because I think these companies are exceptional businesses, I do think you've just had too much concentration. And I think it is a setup to retrade and give back.
And in that, it could even be 10%. But 10% in the MAG-8 will be a couple trillion bucks.
And so on an absolute dollar basis. One or two percent would be a lot.
Yeah, an absolute dollar is a lot. Okay, Freeberg, who do you predict? You predict MAG-7, government service providers for you, Gavin.
Freeberg, who do you predict the biggest business loser of 2025 i'm not i'm sort of on the same vein as gavin i went with the kind of old defense and aerospace providers boeing lockheed martin raytheon defense 1.0 driven by kind of china dominance driven by u.s defense budgets that i think are going to need to shift towards a more kind of tech oriented and roi drivendriven rationalization and pricing and spend. So the Palantirs and Andurals, obviously, the world

will benefit. And I also just think there's a lot of failure at scale with these businesses.

They've gotten too clunky and too bureaucratic, as we've seen with Boeing from their space program

failure in 2024 to the challenges with their airplane business. But I think that this government contracting business across the board is going to be deeply challenged this year with all the new blood.
So the cost plus are going to suffer is what you're saying. And the Andrels will thrive.
Would you guys add, just a question, would you guys add the traditional consulting companies into the mix as well? Like if you think there's... That's a good point too.
That's a great one. Yeah, we think what we talked about with DeepMind.
Like the OnePros, the Tatas, the HCL, the Accenture. Cognizance.
Cognizance, the EMYs. All these folks that are in real trouble if that also happens.
That's right. The efficiency that they'll gain will also be felt by their customers and their customers might not hire them.
When you got a bunch of software entrepreneurs that are now advising and informing the federal government on how to run their operations, I'm pretty sure that some of these service providers are going to get washed out. So that's a good idea.
The thing to keep in mind is like cost plus is a fancier way of saying time and materials. And time and materials is a fancy way of saying human labor arbitrage.
I think that all of that stuff will get extremely scrutinized in 2025 because if you are buying $800 wastebaskets and $9,000 umbrella hangers because of time and materials and all of this other crazy stuff that's in the system and all of that gets washed out, then a lot of these folks and their business models will get put under severe stress. The alignments, you know, you show me an incentive, I'll show you the outcome.
The alignment of cost plus is to just keep being inefficient and waste. And these defense contractors are taking 60, 70, 80% off the price of each piece of munitions or vehicle.
Yeah. Cost plus is terrible.
No, just cost is terrible. That's all right.
For my biggest business loser prediction, I had to go through a lot of the people I've criticized. I started fights with over the past year, commercial real estate came to mind because these leases are going to keep coming up.
And I think like they kick the can down the road a little bit. So I started there.
Then I looked at micro strategies, and that made no sense to me that they were trading at two, three, four times the book value of their Bitcoin. And I think that's not sustainable.
I looked at Truth Social, which is like doing four or $5 million in revenue, and valued at $7 billion. That makes absolute no logical sense.
But I think the one that is the most overpriced of all of this, and I think is going to see their peak valuation is OpenAI. I think the headwinds for OpenAI are being absolutely underappreciated.
Like I said before in my previous one, my previous prediction, Google is kicking ass. XAI is just getting started and building out so much big iron.
Microsoft was basically on another podcast almost like laughing at OpenAI for selling them the source code and that they didn't even need OpenAI anymore because they had it all. They don't need them and they own all the big iron.
I think OpenAI's valuation made no sense. I don't think they're going to be able to keep charging the prices they're charging.
And I think AWS, Apple, Google, XAI, this cohort are going to really take that $157 billion valuation and make it the peak valuation of the company. And I do think that there is a non-zero chance they could lose their process and these court cases of transferring $157 billion in value from a nonprofit into a for-profit.
I think that whole thing could blow up. Is that your super prediction is open ai will not be able to convert from non-profit to for-profit in 2025 i think that that's a small piece of it but that's a really interesting super prediction insert polymarket graphic here super prediction will open ai convert is that's a good 25 yeah by the way you know they're projecting, I think, in the leaked financials, $12 billion in revenue next year, JCal.
So unlike a lot of the other things you were talking about, this is a real business with real revenue, real scale, real growth, real technology. It's a little bit distinct from kind of being a meme stock or being a...
Exactly. That's why I'm picking it because I think it's easy to pick a meme stock.
It's harder to pick a real company. But I do think that that revenue, which you know, a lot of it is consumer and a lot of it is developers, the developers I know, all want to do open source, they don't want to have to be beholden to open AI and Sam Altman, they would much rather, and they're already setting their queries across multiple different sacks and trying different ones.
I don't think there's any loyalty to OpenAI or Gemini or any of these services. I think they'll just go with eventually open source in many cases.
So anyway, that's my thought on OpenAI. 2025, biggest business deal.
What do you got, Shamath? What's your biggest business deal for 2025 prediction, Shamath? What do you got? You said Starlink to go public last year. that hasn't happened yet totally riffed on that one yeah totally riffed on that one I think that

this deal for 2025 prediction, Jamath. What do you got? You said Starlink to go public last year.
That hasn't happened yet. Totally riffed on that one.
I think that this is the year that we will see the collapse of the traditional auto OEMs. And I think that the deal that happened at the end of 2024 with Honda, Nissan, I think is a bit of a signal to what the industry has to do, which is to go through a massive wave of consolidation.
I think that Tesla is just in an incredible position with the quality of their vehicles and the quality of their software and the quality of their autonomy with FSD. So I suspect that after a couple of more meaningful product releases, it's just going to trigger the realization by the public capital markets that these auto OEMs are uninvestable.
And I think the result of that will be a wave of auto mega mergers. And for people who don't know, Honda and Nissan signed an agreement to merge and Mitsubishi is involved because they're part of, I think, Nissan's alliance.
This would obviously get rid of all of the redundancy. But I think this is going to touch like the European OEMs are in real trouble.
You know, what does Volkswagen do? It's not clear. What does Stellantis do? It's not clear.
These are all businesses that are effectively melting icebergs. And so typically melting iceberg businesses, when they get put under pressure from smart investors like Gavin and his ilk, they're forced to merge.
Are you short these, Gavin? Gavin, you got a spread trade? Are you short these names? I would rather not talk about specific positions. I would just say I agree 100% with Chamath.
I think these... All right, there you go.
They're going to lose their Chinese business because they don't make competitive products anymore. If there's not massive protectionism, and we're seeing signs of that, they'll be caught between Tesla and the Chinese OEMs.
And I think the only way that this doesn't happen, the only risk to Chamath's prediction is just government intervention because they're such big employers and, you know, often seen as national champions. but absent really significant government support,

they're all in deep trouble.

Okay, well done.

Freeberg, last year,

you said there'd be some blockbuster deals

for rights holders, licensing data for AI training,

and Reddit did in fact sign two of those.

So a great prediction from you for last year

on biggest business deal.

What do you got this year?

See if you can go two for two. Was was just reddit i should probably look it up i'll just follow on my year of the robot theme i do think that there's going to be massive funding deals similar to what we saw this past year for compute build out i think we're going to see massive funding deals for hardware based manufacturing manufacturing build out in the United States.
And I think that those deals may take the form of kind of traditional equity from private markets, or they may have some component that includes government support to kind of motivate and drive and accelerate onshore manufacturing. We're not going to go in the US to making stuff that is like last century.
I think we're going to need to move manufacturing to the next decade, next century of production. And I think that's going to mean making some of these autonomous and robotic type systems that are going to become really critical for us, particularly with China doing this massive ramp up and build out for both drones and robots and autonomous vehicles.
So I think we're going to need to kind of onshore a lot of this. And so that'll be a big amount of capital that's going to move.
And so you'll see a bunch of these big blockbuster deals for hardware build out in the US. Gavin, what do you think should be the biggest business deal in 2025? I think the biggest business deal is that they're going to be deals.
I think there's going to see a tidal wave of M&A after four years of not being able to get anything done. I think there's an enormous amount of pent-up demand.
So kind of point number one. Point number two, something will happen with Intel and that will be big and hopefully it's good for America.
And then I do think you will see a lot of these frontier AI labs that are independent be acquired. You know, I thought your points were well taken, Jason, about everything that Google is bringing to bear and XAI owns their own compute.
I mean, you guys can choose whichever one of these three you like. But the ultimate AI winner will be the one with the lowest cost of infrastructure costs, the lowest cost of compute.

And definitionally, you can't be the low cost provider if you're renting your compute from someone else.

Because of markups.

Yeah, because there's a markup.

If you're buying your compute from Azure or AWS or Google, you are at a disadvantage relative to their internal services over time. So the full stack wins.
Great prediction for me. Last year, my prediction was that ByteDance would go public or TikTok would get divested or some version of this.
We are but 18 days away from figuring out if the Supreme Court will do just that. My prediction for this year, I was looking at all the media companies, gentlemen, there were so many possibilities there, Warner Brothers, we talked about Apple and Disney, you know, a couple years ago.
But I think the age of autonomy is here. And I think there is going to be some partnerships that will happen between Amazon, DoorDash, Uber, Tesla, Waymo, and that cohort.
And I would not be surprised to see Tesla could buy Uber right now for but 10% of its market cap. And Waymo could spin out and partner with Uber.
Amazon could buy DoorDash fairly easily. And with the wrath of Khan being over, the wrath of Lena Khan being over, Gavin, it is possible that mega deals like these could go through and if a couple of mega deals go through like this whoever uh you know teams up here could win autonomy delivery food delivery and e-commerce this is a ginormous space and i think listen i don't i haven't spoken to uh obviously my friend about about it, but Tesla buying DoorDash and Uber or Amazon buying DoorDash and Uber could be the greatest service ever created if you wanted to build a super app.
The only thing I would add, and I think dovetails with what you said and Friedberg's kind of year of the robot, is autonomous drones. There's a company called Zipline, which my firm is an investor in.
Fantastic company. Yeah, but autonomous drones, they really are the best way to deliver almost anything to suburban America.
And then I think over time, it will be sorted out so that they can deliver in cities as well. So I just think that that might be a little bit of a wild card for some of these delivery services.
Well, and Amazon in I believe it's Texas is actually doing these now. They've got 60,000 SKUs is my understanding already being delivered.
And they just drop it in your backyard. And it's there in 45 minutes.
We talked about this like two weeks ago, you know, Meituan in China has got this and they have food delivery happening with these drones.

By the way, just kind of dovetailing off of this, I think the other big deal potential in 2025, just to be very specific, is a deal with Waymo. You know, Waymo launched NSF in August 2023 in kind of an open market way.
Uber and Lyft were 66% and 34% market share at the time. And in 15 months, in November of 2024, Waymo is now a 22% market share of rides in SF, which is the same as Lyft and Uber is now down to 55.
So Waymo ate into both Uber and Lyft's market share by on the order of 12 points in just 15 months. And now they're launching in LA, in Austin, all over the country.
They're already in Phoenix. So I think you could see a massive and by the way, you know, they also just moved the hardware platform over to a new drop new device, that's supposedly going to bring the CapEx significantly down for new launches.
So you'll see much improved ROIC metrics, which means that there's a much kind of more efficient way to use capital to scale. So the system works, it is scaling, they're opening up a new market.
So you could see something happen with Waymo this year, that could either be something like a massive financing and IPO, or a merger or acquisition with one of the big ride sharing companies. I don't know if that makes as much strategic sense as I've thought about it a little bit.
But I do think you could see a big deal with Waymo. This company is if you guys have not been in a Waymo, I think we all talked about this, but it's an incredible experience.
And everyone I know of every age group that has been for a ride in Waymo comes out of it saying, that is the future. This is going to absolutely dominate how I'm going to get around when I'm in urban areas.
Most people say it's slow right now and monotonous and they don't like it, but because it does take weird routes, but that'll be fixed over time, obviously. Totally.
uh just in case anybody thinks i'm talking my book here i have exposure to all these almost all these companies in a in a significant way because i believe in the entire space one and a half percent of rides in the u.s and globally it's less than one percent are done by ride sharing the tam is going to go to 20 in a very short period of time and it's going to be across the board. There's going to be a lot of winners here.
And to my favorite, Uber, obviously, they have deals with eight people and it's a global market. BYD produces cars for half the price of any other car manufacturer and they have full self-driving and it's pretty darn good from what I understand.
So this is going to be a global competition. And that means if you want to win that global competition, something like Uber and DoorDash, Waymo, Amazon, BYD, you're going to see some interesting partnerships happen very quickly, I believe, because there's so much at stake.
All right, any final thoughts on biggest business deals? I think I maybe have a good one here. Consolidation in the transportation space.
Okay, moving on to 2025, most contrarian belief last year enterprise value of open ai goes down from chamath it roughly doubled but i just picked it as my prediction so i think we're sim we're simpatico on uh what we think long term freeberg you said increased probability of a nuclear weapon being used for the first time since world war ii thank the lord that that didn't happen again this is contrarian beliefs people are going out there i didn't predict it was gonna happen i just said the probability went up it was it's a tough it's a tough thing to call well this is most contrarian belief i think it's fine dr doom strikes again it's all good i picked apple would become the player in ai and they did launch apple intelligence but it but it sucks. I mean, it sucks.
It's terrible. I just bought the Google Pixel Fold 9.
And the Gemini works perfectly. It does everything that Siri is supposed to do.
If you say, please play this song. If you say, please download this app.
If you say, add this to my calendar, it does it and it does it in one fifth or tenth the amount of time that Apple takes. And Apple gets it wrong every time.
It's a piece of garbage. It's a disgrace.
Disgrace the odd Apple. Apple intelligence is even worse than Copilot, which is saying something.
Jason, would you like to announce? You the domain disgraciad.com i own it i'm not selling it right now it it redirects to jake paul gavin gavin do you have any idea what what word he's even saying when he says that disgraciad it's disgraciad is what people used to say in brooklyn for somebody who is disgraceful it is a italian american slang how do you spell it you don't even know you own the domain you don't even know d-i-s-g-r-a-z-i-a-d gratia yes and if you type in gratia it goes to to Jake Paul. I bought it when I was watching the Tyson fight.
It was so disgraceful. I was saying to my brother, Josh, the Black Bomber, this is, and he just said, Disgraciad.
And I just said, I wonder if that's available as a domain. I'm redirecting Disgraciad right now, Tim Cook, to Apple Intelligence, the website.
Do you guys think Tyson threw that fight fight that it was part of the deal thousand percent yes i so agree i would love i think somebody said saudi arabia was offering to host a remake or whatever a redo a rematch a rematch of the fight where the winner would make 50 million and then we'll see what's what and the loser gets zero yes the loser gets

zero this is a good use of the kingdom's money the people want to know we will all fly out there and do an all-in episode from that fight did you see this did you see this thing where is it is it logan paul is fighting conor mcgregor in india and conor mcgregor is going to get 250 million dollars What?

Yeah.

It's like a whole

Is it boxing

or is it MMA?

I think it's boxing, and it's meant to sort of like bring a bunch of tourists into India to show them the country. But it's a quarter of a billion dollars to Conor McGregor.
How do we get in on this grift? Freeberg versus Baker, Polihapitiya versus Calacanis. Oh my gosh.
We need to get in our own celebrity boxing and who would we do come on keep going i gotta drive home let's go come on too much fun this episode chamath what's your most contrarian belief prediction for 2025 we're going out on a limb here this is going out on a limb folks don't judge us the spicier the take the better here this is where you can go freestyle I think that you're going to see a banking crisis in one of the major mainline banks. A banking crisis.
Wow. There is a small chance it happens, but that's a contrarian belief.
Okay. Why, Chamath? Why? Box one? Well, I think if I had to kind of build the case for this, it would be along the following lines.

If you added up the total indebtedness of Pax America, which is US government debt, plus corporates, plus mortgage debt, and you actually sensitize it to rates that are around, call it 5%,

what you quickly realize is on a dollar basis, that because the amount of debt that we have has just massively exploded. That 5% rates today on 70 odd trillion dollars is actually equivalent to 10%

rates 25 or 30 years ago because we only had a fraction of that debt on a dollar basis.

And so the pain that you feel at 5 or 6% can very quickly ripple through the economy

the way that it did when rates 25 or 30 years ago were 10%. And so I think that when people look at rates, they forget the actual total dollar impact because when somebody or collectively, when we have to come up with three or $4 trillion, how do you you do that and so i think that there is a

non-trivial risk i think it's small this is why it's contrarian but i think it's a it's a risk where if you have a mark to market problem if you have a credit default problem amongst the corporates or amongst enough individual consumers what i think that happens more than anything else is that it triggers a reserve issue and i think that the reserve issue in one of these mainline banks i have two that i think are more obvious than others but i don't want to name them okay fair enough i love this contrarian take this is This is great. I think that there's a small but reasonable chance that that happens.
I love it. It's a great, great contrarian take.
Small chance, but big impact. Gavin, what do you got? Well, first we should use Gemini Deep Research to just ask it to look at the total, you know, Pax Americana debt outstanding, apply the current market interest rate to it, and

then look at that interest expense relative to GDP and generate that chart over time, that would be a cool chart. That would be interesting.
I don't disagree with Chamath. you know any anything is possible and know, there, there could for sure be, be a problem at a big bank.
I don't know that I would say it's likely, but anything is possible. My most contrarian belief.
So I think that America over the next, at some point over the next four years, will print at least one year of greater than 5% GDP growth, real GDP growth. I think productivity is going to go vertical because of AI and deregulation.
And I think there could be a world where this is the late 90s. And it doesn't sound like a big difference, you know, 5% or 6% versus 2% or 3%, but it is a massive difference.
You know, at 5% or 6%, you know, the economy is doubling, you'll call it every 12 years roughly, versus 24 years at 3%. I mean, it's just, it's a massive difference in terms of kind of the wealth of the country and individual Americans.
As far as a specific prediction for 25, because I don't know when that will happen,

I think you will see the frontier labs

stop releasing their leading edge models

to prevent knowledge distillation

and their IP effectively being stolen.

You know, DeepSeek from China,

it was really impressive,

but it thinks it's GPT-4, you know?

Yeah.

So I just think you'll see the labs

keep their best models in-house, distill them and put small small models out over time ferber do you have a contrarian belief and i did put into gemini advanced 1.5 pro with deep research the question which banks have the great biggest chance of being insolvent or having a financial collapse or crisis so it's doing its research right now it'll be about 10 minutes, I think, which gives you an idea of how much research it does. It's nuts.
Free break, what do you got?

I think that the party line is that socialism was defeated in this election cycle and that there was a resounding kind of vote from the American populace against socialism. And I actually think my contrarian belief is that we'll see a rise, a dramatic rise in socialist movements in 2025 in the United States.
And I think that we are going to see, as Gavin pointed out, an acceleration of progress. We're going to see an unleashing of economic growth because of deregulation and AI.
But I do think that some markets, we've also talked about the downfall of US auto manufacturing and some other industries. There's going to be a real significant shift in 2025.
Some industries and some companies are going to be huge winners and some companies are going to be huge losers. There's going to be some parts of the economy that are going to be big winners and some parts of the economy that are going to be big losers.
When you have this sort of a change this fast, there are often large contingents of people that are left behind. And when that happens, I do think that the socialist policies and the socialist movements gain steam.
When Perón came to power in Argentina in the mid-1940s, that country was experiencing 8% GDP growth, to Gavin's point about accelerating growth. Growth does not mean that it benefits everyone equally.
And I think that some folks will see people go from being billionaires to 100 billionaires to the world's first trillionaire, and it will also start to fuel this rise. So I think that we will see an increase in the breadth and depth of socialist movements in the United States.
By the way, particularly with Doge cutting government funding to programs that benefit individuals, employment being cut in the federal government and through federal contractors, there's just a lot of rapid change that's about to kind of really upset a lot of people. I totally agree.
I think AI, you know, people are fond of saying that in a world of AGI or ASI, money will be meaningless. But for a short period of time, money will matter more than it's ever mattered before.
because the amount of money you can spend on AI, on test time compute,

is going to give you a massive advantage, whether you're a company or an individual.

So I just think AI is going to really amplify inequality for some period of time. Yeah.
I hope I'm wrong. Like I hope, you know, AI leads to, you know, all sorts of, you know, opportunities being created for low income people.
That would be awesome. There's just going to be a lot of employment and income disruption in 2025.
And it's going to fuel socialist movements. And I think that this is going to be a more difficult year.
Everyone thinks it's kind of rosy red because we're all working in the tech industry in Silicon Valley. But the reality on the ground for most Americans could be a lot harsher than any of us anticipate.
And that could make for a very difficult political environment and social environment. This is a great contrarian prediction, Freeberg.
I would build on it that I don't think this is just going to hit blue collar. I am seeing in the venture industry and in entrepreneurs all over the place, people who are super qualified, who had six-figure salaries, even to mid-six-figure salaries, not be able to find work or not find work at previous compensation levels.
Why? Because people are doing more with less. It's much better to invest and do deep research and AI and automate stuff or deprecate stuff or delegate stuff to other regions than to hire Americans in some cases.
And that philosophy that's happening isn't just going to hit truck drivers, it's going to hit developers, potentially designers, writers, what is the contrarian part of what you guys are saying? What's the contrarian part? Socialism. Socialism is going to rise.
Socialism on the rise. I think it's pretty interesting.
Because I think. You don't think it's contrarian? You think it's obvious? I think the party line has been that socialism was getting knocked back this year with this election cycle, and it was a mandate against socialism, and some of the socialist policies that were being put forth.
And I think that the contrarian view is that we're actually got this really wrong. And socialism is going to be on a big rise.
But just to build on what you said earlier, like wokeism and progressivism will decouple from socialism. I think wokeism and progressivism, you know, will be on a declining trend, but socialism in terms of the government like policies, you know, having more of a role.
Yeah, yeah. I think that's an interesting idea.
Why don't we have universal healthcare? Why don't we have pre-K or, you know, in every state and, you know, these kinds of things. i think americans are right to ask those questions now other behaviors are obviously abhorrent but you do have the right to ask why we can't figure this out and why our government has failed us in something as basic as you know providing after school programs or universal health care or universal child care these things are easy to do and when you see everybody getting rich and the polarization of wealth, I can understand people saying, why don't we have these basic things when other countries have them? It's a reasonable thought.
You're making the assumptive statement that these things are easy to do, which was what was said about education. It's like, let's give everyone access to college education with the federal student loan programs.
And what happened was, when we introduced those programs, those schools started to charge more, and the tuition went up every year. And eventually, the cost of education inflated away from the benefit you were getting from it.
And this has happened universally in healthcare. It has happened in housing, it has happened in education, it has happened in every market where the government has stepped in to provide capital to support that market that the market basically no longer operates in a free way.
I appreciate the challenge to it. And I'll explain to you why I believe it's easy.
If you just put this down to the states, and you make it more competitive, I think you solve the problem. If you introduce school vouchers, and you create competition, if you take universal healthcare, and maybe you run some experiments where different states get that money from the federal government, and let them run 50 different experiments, I think we could actually solve some of these problems.
But you're correct. Anything that the federal government does, it eventually becomes corrupt and inefficient.
My most contrarian belief was open AI loses its lead, loses its nonprofit to for profit transition and becomes the number four player in AI. The total collapse of open AI is my most contrarian prediction for 2020.
That's a good one. The total collapse of open AI.
Doubling and tripling down. Hey, man, I'm trying to make this spicy.
It's a spicy category. Let's do it.
Yeah, I got it. Jeff Bezos could still run for president, J.
Cal. Don't forget.
He's great. I don't know.
Everybody who, all his friends left the company, maybe he's great. Maybe he's a stand-up guy.
I mean, everybody quit, but maybe he's... Gavin, are you familiar with J.
Cal's prediction that Jeff Bezos is going to run for president? That was my favorite. I was predicting I wanted him to.
I wanted him to. And he bought Washington Post, and he quit the Amazon job, and he bought a house in Washington, D.C.
and he went down to Mar-a-Lago. Don't be surprised if Bezos, after he gets through his midlife crisis and going to Coachella and partying and having a great time, which he deserves, if he comes back and says, you know what, I want to serve my country.
I still stand by that contrarian belief. Do you think he's going to sell the Washington Post or do you think he's going to hold on to it? Well, let's stick with that one because that's one of my predictions.

Jeff Bezos will sell the Washington Post in 2025.

That's a good polymarket.

Yeah, sell it to Kara Swisher.

Sell it to Kara Swisher.

They'll run it right into the ground.

They'll double down.

Okay.

Best performing asset.

Everybody loves this one.

Best performing asset.

Hey, you can put a price on this. Best performing asset.
Last year, Chamath did a spread trade. He was long public tech stocks, short private, late stage tech stock index.
NASDAQ top 100 tech stock. ETF was up 10% in 2024.
Freeberg, you went with your uranium ETF, not Uranus, uranium ETF. And URA was down 1% in 2024 i know sideways you know what i looked at the components of that etf last week when we were preparing for this it has absolute junk in it like it it was not the right the right way to kind of trade uranium but anyway that was my my outcome for the year i went with the with the on demand economy with Uber, Airbnb and DoorDash.
Uber was up 30%. But now it's only up 3%.
With the robo taxi headwind, Airbnb is basically flat. And DoorDash up big 74%.
Shout out to Stanley Tang. Great job to the team over there.
So Chamath, get your flowers there. Let's do our best performing asset.
Let's let our our guests go first gavin what would be the best performing asset of 2025 i think the companies that make high bandwidth memory going back to we're gonna run out of compute it's it's um it's actually a pretty shocking stat high bandwidth memory is a bigger part of NVIDIA's cogs on GPUs than Taiwan Semi is. And today there's two companies that can make it, Hynix and Micron.
We'll see if Samsung gets their act together. But HBM memory, it's in NVIDIA GPUs, AMD GPUs, Amazon Terraniums.
And particularly in a world of test time compute and inference being so important,

high bin with memory is arguably more important than it ever was. And it's been sold out for the

last two years. So high bin with memory would be my pick.
Okay. Good pick.
Great pick. In fact,

what do you got, Shema? So let me preface this by saying that this is a pick that 92 times out of 100 goes to absolute zero okay and six out of the remaining eight times you make 10 10 extra money. And then the final two times, you make anywhere between 100 to 1,000 extra money.
Okay. Sounds like Bitcoin.
Okay. So this is a loser trade.
Okay. But I would be long CDS.
So what am I buying? I am buying insurance insurance i'm buying insurance using credit default swaps i'm buying what's called protection that there is no default event in 2025 again i'm not going to tell you which companies or what maturities but just the general idea for me is I would like a little bit of an

insurance policy in 2025, so that the men and the women that we have voted in have the chance to do

their work in peace. I think that there is a small chance of some volatility next year.
I hope it

doesn't happen. I hope that this trade, like I said, 92 times out of 100 loses money.
I hope it loses money. But if it hits, it will be the best performing asset of 2025.
It will be the equivalent of Ackman buying CDS right at the beginning of the COVID crisis. How does one buy those? You have to have an ISDA, you talk to the big investment banks, and they'll price it out for you.
But again, and I just want to be clear, this is not something I think will happen. It's not something I want to happen.
But I do think that if you look back, in terms of just the tonnage of dollars you can make, and the massive risk asymmetry that it presents to you, when you look at the concentration of the S&P, when you look at just the total gross amount of debt that we have, when you look at rates spiking, all of these things say having a little insurance may not be a bad thing. So I hope I'm completely wrong.
Gavin, you're nodding. You want to answer that? No, no.
I was just thinking. I mean, if you're, if, you know, Chamath's prediction of a bank failure is true, you absolutely want to own CDS.
I mean, you'll forget 100X, you'll, 1,000X, 10,000X. What do you got, Freeberg? So I went with Chinese tech stocks, Chinese tech ETFs.
Wow. I think that the market, everyone's kind of dumped Chinese tech stocks over the last couple of years.
Everyone's taken this isolationary stance on positioning portfolios and saying, hey, we can't do business with China. It's over.
But I do think that the Trump administration, particularly with their recent request on TikTok, the ban on TikTok being kind of halted, they're trying to line up what I would call kind of like the great deal with China. So I don't know anything about what they're actually trying to do.
But I think that Trump and leadership in the U.S. government want to kind of open up the Chinese market to American companies in order to give Chinese companies access to the American market.
And I think that they're going to get a deal done given the position with China. I think that they're very likely to kind of get a deal done.
That's one driver. I think there's three drivers.
The second driver is that obviously the cost of build out of electricity production in China is unfathomable. They recently approved $137 billion hydroelectric dam facility, which is going to add another, I think, couple hundred gigawatts of electricity production in that country, not to mention all the nuclear build-out we've talked about in the past.
So the cost per kilowatt hour is already lower. The amount of electricity available is going up.
And then I think that the Chinese Communist Party have this incredible ability to throttle up and down free markets and entrepreneurship. And this is a moment where you could kind of see them making the throttle go the way towards enabling more innovation, more free market activity.
And it's going to be one of the motivators for them to do a deal. So when you put all of this together, I do think that there's a lot of Chinese tech companies that have been beat up under the assumption that this is going to be a very difficult conflict with the US in the years ahead.
And I think that that may not be the case going into 25. And I think that these stocks are pretty cheap.
I was just looking at Alibaba and it trades at a pretty decent multiple. It seems like these stocks could be poised for a pretty good run in 25 if the macro works out.
It feels like a contrarian take. I mean, Trump, I don't think is going to find a way to balance the relationship with china very well and i don't think you can rattle up entrepreneurship after you cut everybody's knees out the last time plus i don't trust any accounting statement coming out of china because they could fudge whatever they want but wow what a great uh potential you know buy low sell high the good thing is you'll know if i'm right thing is you'll know if I'm right or wrong in a year.
You can. Exactly.
We'll know exactly. That's right.
Pull the ETF. Absolutely.
I mean, Gavin, what do you think of this hot take here from Mr. Freyberg? Really cheap.
I've had a, I would call it a no China guideline ever since the long top financial fraud more than 15 years ago. Or it was just amazing.
It was, you know, a lot of great investors owned it and, you know, they, they talked a great game and they had a Western auditor, but then it turned out that the fraud was happening at the local post office where they were opening up the documents that the local auditors had signed off on changing them and then sending different documents you know whatever fedexing them yeah so i just think it's it's a hard place if you're i think if you're not chinese to make money but i tend to agree with a lot of what david said i think trump and she both want to deal i think there's a deal to be done that leaves putin out in the cold as i referenced and if that happens katie bar the door i mean there are really really high quality companies you know that are some of them are mid single digit multiples and there and it's a big market so if you did get it right and you did by the way the chinese the chinese companies serve a global market it's not just the us they serve uh you know africa south america australia i mean the whole southern hemisphere well yeah if you look at byd that it's all over europe it's yeah yeah it's it's yeah no look i mean i i mean the chinese companies and they have the best unit economics they they have the best cost of production. I mean, everything is advantaged, particularly if you believe it's the year of the robot.
There's going to be kind of a massive demand around the world for automation and for rebuilding manufacturing capacity all over the world. And I think that China could service those markets more efficiently than any other kind of country of origin.
So it's a pretty, pretty powerful set of macro drivers as well. I think the Mac seven is going to be the best performing asset.
I'm taking the other side, Chamath, I think in an earlier prediction said maybe not so much. I think that what they've learned in the last couple of years is that there is an incredible earnings expansion you can do by not hiring

people and outsourcing jobs to other parts of the world and automating. And the gains we'll see from

AI, which they're producing for other companies and for consumers, they're applying first

internally. So the internal application of AI will allow these companies to have earnings growth

that people will not be able to comprehend over the next couple of years. So I'm going with Mag7.
We got a lot of different takes here going different directions. What a great episode so far.
All right, worst performing asset. Last year, Chamath said, late stage tech stock index, mostly SaaS.
Freeberg, you put in a brilliant spread trade. Short vertical SaaS, long AI cloud providers.
SaaS has had a little bit of a rebound, but Google up 36% for AI cloud. Microsoft 14%, Amazon 46% all in 2024.
I said LLM startups like OpenAI Anthropic, too many players, open sourcing will kill. Pricing,, the one valuation we can track is open AI and it doubled.
But I do think long term have that one work. Worst performing asset of 2025, Gavin? Enterprise application software.
This is basically just about 2025 is going to be I think the year of agents, particularly in the second Agents just being AI models that can take action on your behalf, that can do anything online that a human can do online. And if the labs and the big cloud providers dominate agents, which seems likely, going back to the low-cost producer is going to win, enterprise application software, I think, is going to be in a lot of pain.
And, you know, some of these companies are talking a big, big game about agents. But at the end of the day, they don't have their own models, they don't own their own compute.
And I just don't see them being ultimate winners in the world of agents. You know, I could they have some customer data, maybe a little bit of a data moat, and they do have strong customer relationships.
But most companies have relationships with AWS, Google, or Microsoft as well. So I think enterprise application software will be in pain.
Okay. And Chamath, what do you got? I think Gavin just absolutely nailed it.
I'm going to double down on what he said. I think that there's a term that we will start to use more.
I started to use it internally at 8090 over this last year in 2024, which is the software industrial complex. These are these large, bloated, in many cases, enterprise software companies that effectively have convinced incredible numbers of organizations to spend a tremendous amount of money, essentially wrapping a bunch of heuristics and business rules around a CRUD database.
And along with that, what they have perfected really is a go-to-market and sales motion. The golf trips, the steak dinners, we mentioned this before, what Alex Karp railed against.
None of those things equate to product value. And increasingly in the world of agentic software and AI, I think that you can rebuild a lot of these workflows in very efficient ways.
And I think the go-to-market is going to be driven by CEOs and CFOs who start to exert a little bit more pressure on their CIOs to manage spend. In that world, I just think that these next-generation AI businesses are built, frankly, an order of magnitude cheaper than the companies that they compete against.
Even if it's just feature for feature the same, I think the software industrial complex, these old mainline, traditional enterprise software companies, I think you're going to start to see fissures in those businesses in 2025. So I agree with Gavin, different words, but same result.
And you put your time and money where your mouth is on this one. 11 months ago, you found it 80-90 to get 80%.
And the traction in less than a year, to me, is shocking shocking and I don't think it speaks necessarily I think we're decent we're very good we have great engineers but my 30% engineering team I think does the work of 300 people by next year it'll be doing the work of 3,000 people maybe it will only grow by 10 or 20% so and the reason is we use these, we're productive to an order of magnitude that I didn't think was possible. And as a result, we're just able to price it differently.
So even if it's the exact same product, its cost structure is just meaningfully lower. And so this is what I mean where the ROI calculators get blown up, all of the traditional go-to-market motions get up, because in an RFP or in any other sales environment, what you do is somebody says it's $100, and you show up and you say 10.
Okay, and at 10, it's still hugely profitable for you. And just to add just one last thing is just, you know, fundamentally, these enterprise application software companies, the software industrial complex, and I agree with everything Jamath said, you know, they're fundamentally based on making white collar human employees more efficient.
And what the AI companies are going to do is just say, hey, we're just going to replace that worker. And it's just a fundamentally different mentality.
It's a paradigm shift. And it goes to like, there may be a lot of pain that accompanies this and you know david's points around the you know potential rise of of socialism what do you got for worst performing asset mr freeburn 2020 i'm probably just going to triple underline vertical sass again percy pricing model being challenged pricing being compressed as companies to explore in-house tools built with ai that replaces these kind of traditional business practices.
Moats are going to be destroyed. Yeah, geez, this is scary.
It was an obvious one on my list, but I want to make a different one. I want to make a different one.
How about OpenAI? Do you have anything OpenAI-related? No, no, no. OpenAI is very common.
Tell me why OpenAI is going to die. I mean, all the talented people left, but know i don't know where they are where do all the where are they all the other open ai employees are they on vacation they're skiing too right they've all started competitors oh right that's what happened correct yeah they all left to compete and have revenge startups wow that's an interesting trend okay so consumers make five big decisions in their life as we all know 12 billion revenue're still doing 12 billion in revenue.
I mean. Well, that's a projection.
But also 6 billion in losses too, David, against that 12 billion in revenue. Yeah.
6 billion this year or 6 billion next year? I think the 6 is for next year, but I don't know. I guess it makes sense why they're trying to charge 200 bucks a month now.
Up from 20. They got some headwinds.
Okay, listen, consumers make five big decisions in their life. We know college spouse kids are the obvious ones.
And then cars and homes. And the consumer is up against it with record debt.
So since you can't trade college spouse kids, really, I think legacy car companies and real estate are going to face continued headwinds and be terrible assets. Because listen, we've overbuilt in some cases, there's tons of cars on lots, and people can't afford homes with these mortgages.
So I think these are going to be the two worst performing asset are people in the legacy OEMs as Chamath pointed out in a previous prediction. And then I just think real estate is the same.
If you look at a place like Texas, two years in a row, housing values have gone down,

rent has gone down two years in a row, same things happening in other states where they

allow you to build, and people are leaving states where they don't allow you to build. So that's my

worst performing asset trade. Enterprise was my other choice, but I'll go with something

slightly different. Most anticipated trend for 2025.
Last year, Chamath, congratulations.

You said last year that Bitcoin would hit 100k for the first time nailed it half court shot well done i think at the time you made that prediction it was probably trading it felt like a layup felt like a layup to you up 112 freeberg you said predictive models and ai driven discovery and pharma and bioengineering how did that do that prediction well there was a lot of funding and demis won the Nobel Prize. And a Nobel Prize.
There you go. So it worked out.
I picked efficiency in the form of AI advancements in labor and outsourcing. And I've seen that a bunch with our investment in Athena, go to athenawow.com.
Okay, got my plug in there. Let's go for most anticipated 2025 trend.
What do you got, Chamath? I think that there are a handful of,

not to overuse an overused term,

but canaries in the coal mine

for the end of the deep state.

And I would like to point to one,

which is this obscure thing

called the supplemental loss ratio.

And essentially what it is, is a mechanism that

the banks can use to include or not include treasuries and how they calculate reserves,

et cetera, et cetera. Now, why is this an interesting thing? It's not interesting for

many people. It's very arcane.
But if we are unable to manage the debt situation,

Thank you. for many people, it's very arcane.
But if we are unable to manage the debt situation in 2025, I think what you're going to see is maneuvering at the edges of these arcane regulations that effectively kick the can down the road. And there's a chance that that could happen to help the banks.
Because, you know, we believe that we meaning collectively America, that maybe Doge won't be as effective as it needs to be that there's still going to need to be, you know, 10 $20 trillion of debt issuance to refinance the 10 that's maturing this year and to plug holes in the coming years. My point in all of this is we don't need to understand the details except that if we don't move the goalposts here, it is a great sign that the folks that are running the show are the ones that we all elected.
Okay. So that is my most anticipated trend.
Small, arcane, regulatory changes that allow us to kick the can down the road stop in its tracks. This is an example.
Okay, Freeberg, you got a most anticipated trend for 2025? My most anticipated trend is around the announcement of build-out of nuclear power in the united states in 2025 as a function of deregulation and some new technologies i do think that this new government is going to be much more accommodating and it's going to as i've said in the past i think it's a necessity just because of the the rate at which we have to do power build outs to meet kind of competitive demand against China. The United States is going to need to add more electricity production capacity than we can scale up with any other renewable source.
So I do believe that nuclear is an inevitability. I think that the deregulation will happen in 25.
And I do know a lot of very smart people who are actually starting nuclear

power companies and have left very good jobs to go and do this in anticipation of this happening in 25. So I'm very bullish.
That's a leading indicator for sure. When smart people do something with their time, that's a great indicator.
Gavin, what do you got? I think AI, Nick, I sent you a chart. I don't know if you can flash it up.
But I think AI is going to make more progress per quarter in 2025 than it did per year in 23 and 24. And the reason is just with 01 and 03, this is Arc AGI.
It's designed, you know, we keep, we keep changing the goalposts for the Turing test and AGI. And I'm sure we're going to change it again, because we're going to blow through this.
And I just think what has happened is, we were scaling around, around one, on one axis, which was pre-training. And then we started scaling around inference time compute.
And it's very clear that we have now added a third axis of scaling performance. And that is reasoning.
And what this is, is these models, the internet is composed of answers, people giving answers. And what the models really benefit from is kind of the internal monologue of somebody getting to that answer.
And this is, you know, in AI terms, they call it a reasoning trace. And it's one reason, you know, 18 months ago, everybody was like, Oh, wow, the more code you train a model on, the better it does and all sorts of things that have seemingly nothing to do with code.
But all code, you see kind of the reasoning, the internal monologue, the thought process, the step-by-step. And so what's happening is you're using models to generate synthetic data that contains these reasoning traces.
So you ask a model, you know, solve this problem. It has to be a problem that is functionally verifiable, that has an answer, or we know the answer.
And we say, show your work. And we have it do that many, many different ways and times.
And then you pick the best ones, and you kind of feed those

back into the model, you apply some reinforcement learning to it. And so now you're scaling along

three axes that are multiplicative with each other. And I just, I, you know, a guy on the

Google team said, tweeted maybe five days ago, it's going to be a straight shot to ASI, artificial superintelligence. And I think that might be right.
Ilya gave a talk at NeurIPS, Ilya Suitskever, one of kind of the original pioneers of this field. And he said something that I thought was scary.
And he said, these models that reason are inherently unpredictable. So, the best reasoning models in the world today are the ones that play games, the kind of alpha go, alpha zero style models.
And they are constantly making unpredictable moves that no human grandmaster ever could have come up with. And now these models are going to be making similarly unpredictable leaps in all sorts of domains, which, you know, hopefully will be awesome, but, you know, might not be.
Well, they're going to go around corners that people might not have considered that are non-intuitive. And then just to circle back and do a little callback here, remember I asked which banks would have the biggest chance of being insolvent or having financial collapse or crisis, tons of misspellings in there as I typed it while we were talking.
And you can see what deep research did here. It went and said, here's what we're going to do.
We're going to research a bunch of websites and find a list of banks in the US, find top banks by US by asset. For each one of these banks, find their latest financial savings.
For each of these banks, find their capital adequacy ratios. For each of these banks, find their loan loss.
You get the idea. And then it went and it analyzed, and then it created a report.
This took about 10 minutes. And when you look, it created this final report here where it gave a list, Chamath, of JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, yada, yada.
It did an analysis of each one. And and at the end you can see all the different websites it pulled it was well over a hundred websites that it pulled that's incredible live data from 162 websites and you have to pay for this but it's only 20 a month and its conclusion this analysis has provided a snapshot of the financial health of some of the largest u.s banks while all banks face inherent.
Citigroup and Wells Fargo appear to be the highest risk of insolvency of financial collapse compared to JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup's recent net loss, lower CET1 ratio and high exposure. I mean, you start looking at this now.
I don't know how much of this is correct. I'm no expert on this.
But it does seem like it's a pretty good start of where it's getting to.

And if you haven't used 1.5 Pro with deep research, just go to Gemini.Google.com.

I'm not being paid to say this. I just think it's the best product in the market.
And it's pretty darn impressive. Okay.
My most anticipated trend for 2025 was alluded to in an earlier prediction, I think, by Gavin himself. Mine is that exits in DPI, Shower Town,

and we'll have this incredible uh distribution as the wrath of lena con ends and mna and ipos will surge that is my prediction my most anticipated trend okay let's go to most anticipated media i had two that i was working back and forth from james james guns dc universe with superman coming out this year i think is going to be amazing and or season two could be amazing i predict they're going to do a clone wars live action series if you don't know the clone wars watch it with your kids it's amazing animated series that takes place during the prequels but i went with a little of a weird here. I think my most anticipated media is seeing what happens with legacy media outlets owned by billionaires and or people who no longer want to pick a side.
Washington Post, CNN, and LA Times specifically are steering towards the middle and trying to get back to classic journalism. The editors are revolting.
Karen Swisher is upset. uh they're adding some right-wing voices it is going to be popcorn time for everybody so enjoy whatever you want to enjoy star wars i got a little star wars for you with andrew season two i got a little superman or you can watch the chaos in the editorial newsrooms at washington post and la times what do you got for most anticipated media, Chamath? It is the enormity of the files that are going to get declassified and released by the Trump administration.
I think it's going to be unbelievably interesting, salacious, useful, good, earnest, all of the above so the jfk files the epstein files diddy files the moon landing who knows what they find across all of these other fringe quote-unquote conspiracy theories that may turn out to actually have some shred of truth but all of that let's call it content lack of a better word, that gets released in 2025 by the Trump administration, I think will be incredibly interesting. What do you got, Dave? Media.
Any anticipated media for you? What do you got? I'm into AI video games. The cost of production comes way down when you use AI and you can have dynamic storylines, you can have new gameplay concepts, things that don't exist today.
I think that the creative talent plus the technical talent that you typically find at development houses can be kind of unleashed with tools that have come to market recently. We've seen a lot of the generative video stuff.
But there's also ways structurally that video games can kind of be rebuilt where the video game engine can run kind of locally. It can be generating parameters that can then use an existing rendering engine.
So you can have entirely new storylines and entirely new kind of plot sequences. So I do think that there's going to be a rewrite of video games in the video game industry with the variety of AI kind of capabilities that are hitting market now.
And it's going to be incredible. It's going to be incredible entertainment.
People are going to people that don't play video games are going to find stuff that they're going to love.

Gavin, most anticipated media, 2025.

Unquestioned, 1923, season two.

I'm normally a science fiction kind of fantasy or spy kind of guy when it comes to TV.

But 1883 and 1923 were the first TV shows

that kind of hit me the way Game of Thrones did. and i'm crazy excited for that to come out fantastic are you watching landman i'm enjoying landman i haven't watched it yet i'm excited to try it it's quite fun quite fun turns out this guy taylor sheridan he's i mean yeah it's incredible he's in the zone i highly recommend day of the jackal i know chamoff also loved day of the jackal oh that was really good that was really good that was a good that was a good suggestion for streaming yeah i'm excited yeah absolutely what was your predictions for for this last year last year chamath predicted mr beast freeberg ai generated news i predicted gladiator 2 and the three-body problem.
Gladiator 2 was mid, but okay, three-body problem. I didn't finish, so I guess mid.
Jimmy's show on Amazon Prime, the Mr. Beast thing, was the top unscripted drama in 140 of 180 countries.
Wow. Incredible.
All right, we're going to do our prediction markets here. I'm going to put up a prediction market, which is based upon immigration and the promise that Trump made to have 15 million people be deported from the country.
I think in the first year, I'm going to set the over under at 5% of that stated number, which is 750,000. so after one year in office will trump have deported 750 000 less or more that's my first prediction how are you gonna measure that you have to there has to be a like a source of truth on these things right we'll do it based on the white house's reporting of deportations yeah it's reasonable and we'll check with the polymarket team if there's a way to do that prediction market, obviously.
But I think that was the biggest issue of the election. So I'm putting it up there with just 5% in the first year.
Yeah, it is interesting. Obama deported, I think, more than 2 million people.
It's like people have forgotten, but he was actually really, really tough on the border. Yeah.
Chamath, do you have a prediction market you want to put up the magate representation on the s&p 500 shrinks below 30 oh that's a good one that's a good one so dispersion would happen to the other stocks that's a good concentration that's a good one so we'll finalize these you'll be able to go by the way i know another one i wanted to kind of play with was Microsoft, AWS, and Google Cloud revenue growth. Who's going to win in growth in 2025? I don't know how closely you guys track, but I get a sense that Google is kind of accelerating ahead.
Gavin, I don't know how much you've spent on these three. I mean, Google is.
I wouldn't say they're a lot smaller, which makes it easier for them to grow faster. Yeah.
Should we talk about... Yeah, I mean, I guess who has the largest dollar gain in revenue, in cloud revenue in 2025? Is it Google, Amazon, or Microsoft? Well, it probably won't be Google,

because if they had the largest dollar gain, it would mean they were growing at insane rates. But I think Azure versus AWS will be interesting.
Oh, I know the other one I want you to do, which was the national debt. The national debt has grown about $2 trillion per year in each of the previous two presidential administrations right so over the last eight years we've gone up over 16 trillion two trillion per year average so i'm going to set it at and trump said he would not increase the national debt i'll just set it at the national debt increases one trillion in the next year over under over or under.
Is that a good prediction market? Or should it be $2 trillion? How would you do it? Yeah, so what I would do is I would set the federal debt for December, the U.S. Treasury market report on federal debt in 2025.
And I would set it at $37 trillion. And so basically, the U.S.
Treasury market report, December 2025 2025 above or below 37 trillion it's going to be above i mean let's just call it 38 trillion then yeah you want to basically in order to make this when you set a line dave it's got to be one where people take either side of it it can't be everybody takes it over we'll do the u.s treasury market report December 2025, federal debt above 38 trillion or below 38 trillion.

Perfect.

Which would- of it it can't be everybody we'll do the u.s treasury market report december 2025 federal debt above 38 trillion or below 38 trillion perfect which would be how much added in the year about one and a half yeah i love that i love that that's a perfect one we'll see if he can make any he can control the spending or if it'll just be the same gavin what's your sense on federal debt next year i think like most things it'll to get going. Yeah.
It just, it's going to take a little bit of time, but I think they will make progress. By the way, at some point, if I'm here on the all in again, I want to talk about UFOs and the drones.
Let's talk about it now. Do it right now.
Are you going full conspiracy theorist? Are you trying to get your seat here by being a little more Alex Jones? Do you believe those drones were aliens? What's going on? So I don't know. And I think it's very clear if you look at all the statements from the New Jersey mayors and governors, you know, who've met with the police, the FBI, the Defense Department, that they don't know.
Now, you know, Trump said someone in the government knows what they are. He also said he was not going to go to Bedminster anytime soon, his resort there.

I just think over the last, I'd say, eight years, every 18 months, there's a big story in the New

York Times, the Washington Post, the New Yorker, the Atlantic, very credible media sources

with dozens of interviews with fighter pilots and commercial pilots talking about

Thank you. Posts, The New Yorker, The Atlantic, very credible media sources with dozens of interviews with fighter pilots and commercial pilots talking about seeing things with advanced sensors that made no sense to them.
Then there's kind of a taboo that went away. There was an article in The New Yorker where they quoted from a bunch of people who were at, you know, kind of the skunkworks laboratories in the 1950s and said they absolutely saw extraterrestrial materials that had been recovered from a crash.
That's one reason the U.S. made such big leaps in material science.
and um you know there was the uamana thing where essentially a lot of, you know,

astronomers said, hey, this is clearly a UFO of some sort, including the head of astronomy at Harvard. And then just the conspiracy theory I would have is if, if, if, if, if these are actually UFOs and not, you know government drones either from the united states or china you know it seems like the most likely explanation in new jersey is it's some sort of a drill and obviously once this hysteria gets going people um you know misidentify commercial airplanes as drones and like like, why would UFOs have blinking green and red lights?

But it is just interesting that there was, you know, a big concentration of these reports

as we were scaling into nuclear technology, 1945 to 1960.

And then now that AI is getting going, which is the next kind of technological phase shift

for humanity, there's another big kind of bolus of reports. You can come back.
Come back next week. Congratulations.
We have our winner for all in idle. Gavin is now the fourth best.
I love this kind of conspiracy. But I mean, come on.
How do we make a polymarket out of this free? I don't know that we make a polymarket out of this.

Wait, Gavin, are there documents

that you think Trump will release

about the past in terms of UFOs?

There must be just an entire

spectrum of stuff

that could be subject to FOIA

if we went after it, no?

I mean, I think it depends

on how deeply it's classified.

And, you know, I'm sure if the government doesn't want to give it up, they won't give it up. But, you know, there's all the, you know, there's all this.
But look, let's be honest. You think that there are docs, like there's documentation that the US government has that there are UFOs, that there have been.
We just can't explain it. Yeah.
And, you know, they call it UAPs now to make it, you know, not flying saucers. But it just feels like something funny.
What percentage chance do you put on we have actual knowledge? On a percentage basis, what percentage chance do you put on the government, U.S. government is sitting on knowledge of extraterrestrial? 20%.
At least 20%. 20% from Chamath.
What do you say, Gavin? I would say 25. I say 25 i would take the over on the 20 okay great so you think there's a non a significant small chance that this is the case freeberg sultan of science what chance do you think there is this government sitting on some extraterrestrial life or proof of it it's a longer conversation i don't have time for this but i i gotta be honest i don't um i don't generally align with the idea that like our very narrow range of like understanding of technology and biology kind of is what visits us or would visit us i think that there's an extension of information gathering that doesn't require moving physical, biological life forms from one part of the galaxy to another.
So I think that the whole premise of like UFOs moving bodies around is rooted in the current state of technology of humanity. Which is the basis of Arthur Clarke's treatment of 2001 A Space Odyssey, which was done before the screenplay, which was done before the book.
And the treatment, which you can buy, I think highlights this the best, which is eventually every civilization reaches a sufficiently advanced level of technology that you no longer need to physically move the bodies of the biological organisms around, that you simply are gathering information and affecting information. Because once you have the ability to convert any molecule into any other molecule, and you have access to sufficient energy, which you will eventually evolve to be able to do, you can basically turn your local part of the universe into anything you want it to turn into.
And then you're simply gathering information from all over the rest of the universe. So I would argue that there doesn't really make a lot of basic sense in why alien bodies would want to move around the galaxy.
I'm just saying it right now. If Trump releases information on extraterrestrial life, I'm voting for him to have a third term.
I'm putting it out there. I'm going full MAGA.
He gets a third term for me. We're changing the constitution.
This has been another amazing episode of the All In Podcast podcast question for gavin oh well let's forget okay do you think extraterrestrial life built the pyramids is that the most plausible explanation to the accuracy i don't know it is it is so strange the way there are you know in so many i would say cultures all over the world pre you know we are closer in time to cleopatra than she was to the time of the great pyramids like there was a long time ago but it's just weird that in so many cultures all over the world there are these depictions of what looked like astronauts and then there's all's all these Renaissance era paintings that clearly show what we would call UFOs in the skies over cities. So I don't know.
I just think it's... I'm with you.
I love Conspiracy Gavin. This has been the best part of the show.
Conspiracy Gavin is awesome. I love it.
Jason, if you're a questioning person, these things create these weird, open loops that it's hard to close in your mind. I think we're in a simulation, so I'm fully vested in this.
Anyway, Freiburg's got to drive back. Freiburg's driving home.
I think the pyramids, the best, most credible thing I saw on the pyramids was that they used water, and they raised water in channels, so they put them on wood slats or something, and then they would raise like in like the Panama Canal. They would do canals and float them up and then place them and then release the water, which, you know, sounds great to me.
This has been another amazing episode of the All In Podcast. And thank you to everybody.
Let's have an amazing 2025 to everybody let's kick ass yeah

let's all kick ass let's kick ass 2025 let's get it take care all right we'll see you all next time

bye-bye

we'll let your winners ride rain man david sacks