Wonders, Oddities, Revelations & Horrors of the 2025 Football Almanac

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I don't know.

Like,

I would feel very nervous to like peg this team as one of the super, true Super Bowl contenders, and yet you guys are on that island right now.

How do you feel about it?

Are you nervous at all about this one?

In Kyle Shanahan, we trust.

Okay.

Heed the call.

Welcome.

Heeding that call.

On a Monday morning, Dan Hans is here with Mark Zessler, my co-host.

How's your weekend, buddy?

Delightful.

Aw.

I don't think I've ever had a better weekend.

That is not true, but I'm going to try to sell it that way.

Okay.

Do you have any anecdote to share from the weekend, or you just want to kind of leave it as a little bit open-ended that it was just the best couple days of your life?

Yeah, I'll leave it there.

An anecdote would not do it justice.

You know what?

Leave it to the imagination of the audience.

And I assume you had a good weekend.

I can only hope that's the case.

You You know, that principle of everything evening out, it was the worst weekend of my life.

Well, okay.

I too will not share anything about it.

And the audience can also imagine what that would look like.

All right.

So we're right off the bat.

We are flying.

And gravy?

Gravy right in the middle weekend.

Yeah, very average.

Nothing notable to tell, so I too will keep it to myself.

But yeah, the most average weekend you could possibly imagine.

An electrifying start to the episode.

Absolutely.

As we creep closer and closer to the start of the regular season, we are

looking to get our knowledge up, feel fully prepared.

It's training camp for us also.

And that's why very exciting that Aaron Schatz of

FTN will be joining us to talk about the absolutely essential football almanac that they put out every year and the things that really,

I don't know, I feel like a way to

explore our league, the wonders, the oddities, the revelations, the horrors of the 2025 FTN Football Almanac coming up just a little bit later.

Before we get to the news, I want to, something that grinded my gears.

I wouldn't say this was like,

why not?

You know, feed the bit.

I'm feeding the bit.

Part of the worst weekend ever was seeing what happened to our boy Mike G on NFL Network this weekend.

Did you see this?

Shameful.

Right.

So here's the setup.

It's Mike G, our former NFL Network colleague.

It's Mark Ross,

NFL Network colleague.

And then Debo Samuel,

the commander's wide receiver recently, formerly of the Niners.

Let's watch the end of this conversation.

Debo Samuel joined us on Inside Training Camp Live.

Usually I give a handshake when a guy leaves, but I tried to shake a hand on the way up.

He said, no, no, no, no, no.

Got a little

jam my finger today.

Uh-oh.

Jam my finger.

Oh, was that supposed to say that?

I don't think so.

All right, edit that part out.

Just, just, just break that.

That didn't happen.

I'll give him a left-handed fist bump.

I ain't getting anything now.

Oh,

Devo.

Oh.

Oh, oh, Debo.

By the way.

By the way, I have several thoughts about this.

First of all,

God forbid

the public knows that the 57th best wide receiver in the NFL jammed his finger catching a football at practice.

Like, this is state secrets or whatever.

It was actually reported.

It was reported.

And Debo, if you're just listening to the show, gave kind of a disgusted look.

Like, how dare you bring this up?

Apparently, I guess there was some, it was embargoed information that he had jammed his finger.

I'm very upset about this.

Debo selling out our boy Mike G.

We love Mike G.

I think also, you know, if you just watch football coverage, like we were lucky enough to have hung out with Mike G at various events and places as a reporter, one of the best football reporters around.

And like you get sent to these training camp spots like for 25 days in a row.

And like we're treating this like the U-2 spy plane was shot down over Russia.

Like this is a minor injury that it's not a big deal.

And Mike G didn't get a lot of support from anyone around him there.

I feel like they cut the scene pretty quick.

You know, Mike G is a pro.

Yeah, Mike followed up with a tweet.

He wanted to make it clear that he did get the fist bump

after the fact.

But they had kind of cut away.

They cut away too soon.

Colleen Wolfe, our buddy, she of the laugh track in the background can vouch for me.

I believe that.

I believe Mike and NFL Network even played another clip where they showed the raw footage to prove that there was a fist bump.

And by the way, while we're here, we talk about it.

I talk about this in my home.

We've talked about it on the show.

I call it home team.

You stand by your home team, your family.

Mark Ross, come back to us.

Mark Ross is like, at the end of it, I think we cut it out too soon, but Mark Ross is like, oh, you fumbled the bag on that one.

Whatever, Mark Ross, Mark Ross.

Are we being serious, Mark?

Like, no, you stand with Mike G.

Apparently, there was a misunderstanding, but instead, he like piles on.

So we stand with Mike G.

That's all I'm going to say.

I'm going to send Mike a message

to follow up on this, but I won't stand for that, Mark Ross.

Oh, you fumbled the bag.

It's like, no, no, no, no, Mark.

You stand with Mike G in a big spot.

I like you looking out for

Mike G here.

And, you know, as a fellow Mark with a C,

we got to keep a lid on stuff that gets us into trouble in the public eye.

And I mean, I speak to myself first, but

just, we gotta, we gotta, you guys gotta get that.

Yeah, no, he was getting sideway glances from his own partner.

That ain't right.

And this is also, by the way, just the, we gotta move on, but I just also, why we used to go to a lot of those camps.

And it's one part of the job I don't miss because these players that, I mean, God, these interviews, dude.

Like, again, Debo Samuel jammed his thumb at practice or his finger, and

it's treated as if

they're just so worthless, so many of these interviews.

And

if that's going to be the tone of them, it's like, why do they exist?

I don't know.

It's a little bit of like, it feels like a slumber party, like everyone's a little juiced up on soda and chips.

Like there's a lack of gravity to a lot of what's...

It's that time of year where it's like, we just haven't seen these people in a long time.

But

I quickly feel like I've seen a lot of them all of a sudden.

Justice for Mike G.

Let's do some news.

Mark Ross.

Oh, you fumbled the bag.

You should stand corrected.

Good morning.

False.

Great maureen.

Let's go.

My grave.

What makes us want to break?

Because we're another day closer to death.

You know,

Mike McDaniel, the Miami Dolphins.

It's a great day because we're another day closer to death.

There's a lot of ways to...

There's a lot of ways to read into that.

I'll just go one way.

One way is you're a holy man, and that takes you one day closer to eternal salvation and sitting in the house of God or something.

I don't know.

You could look at it that way.

You could also look at it like

it like, man, being head coach of the Miami Dolphins isn't as fun as it used to be.

Maybe that's a good way to get into.

Yeah.

I think maybe it's a little bit of the latter.

Yeah, because here's the latest.

I don't give a shit about what I feel.

It's also just who you're the latest from Dolphins Camp.

So, Tyreek Hill, he of the half-hearted, like, trade or release me demand at the end of the last regular season.

They mended fences on some level

or tried to move on.

But obviously, there's some still some bad energy, bad juju flying around that complex right now.

Um, and Hill told reporters on Friday that Devon Achan, no, Devon Achan,

shouldn't be Miami's short-yardage running back,

going out on a limb and talking strategy, and I guess calling out Mike McDaniel's offensive scheme.

Here's a little bit from Hill.

Take Devon out on third, Don.

What?

Are you on him?

That's my honest opinion.

If it's third and short, he's not a power back.

I'll be telling him that in the locker room, but he saw he a power back.

I love Devon, though, but if I'm being honest, like

that's why you got Jalen Wright, that's why you got Ali Gordon for those kind of situations.

It's kind of an unusual move for the player from a different positional group or in general to call out the strategy of the coach and the rotation of the running back room.

Uh, Mike McDaniel, he seemed to be both amused and a little bit, I don't know, ticked off by his star wide receivers commentary.

I thought it was a genius reporting by Tyreek, seeing how we had a short yardage period that very day that

you guys were in attendance for.

And

his suggestion was, I guess,

congruent with Coach Studesville.

That's exactly how we repped the backs in that short yard period that very day.

But

we thought it was funny that

he reported the news that wasn't news on that practice day in that short yardage period that you guys were all there too for.

Okay, I have a prediction here i got a prediction because this happens every few years yeah you see a this is a slow-motion car crash this is the breakup of a marriage um and the teams the team and player should have been wise enough to say you know what we've reached the end of the runway we're gonna trade you out of here we're gonna we're gonna end this relationship

um but they didn't they decided and i get i get that also they decided the dolphins like let's try to mend the fences here because he's simply too valuable a player maybe he's not the player he was a couple of years ago at this point, but still one of the great game-changing talents the league has ever seen at wide receiver.

But this is also the same Tyreek Hill was reportedly late to the Dolphins team stretch on Sunday.

After at the Friday press conference, he emphasized the importance of being on time for the start of stretch.

Again, minor things, but tremors, Mark, as Captain Kirk is known to say, disturbance in the force field.

And I think what's happening here is we are heading towards

we are one slow start away from the Dolphins, from Tyreek being released in

October 17th.

Like, I feel like we could be heading towards suspension,

conduct detrimental to the team, all sorts of talking back and forth that eventually

he hits the open market in the middle of the season.

Am I crazy for thinking this is an outcome?

No, because

it was an episode with Connor where we talked about him feeling more and more like a realistic trade target before the deadline.

You're right.

It's not one giant thing.

It's the Tyreek experience.

It somewhat tired out the Chiefs at some point, and they went on to win back-to-back Super Bowls after he left.

But here's the thing about the Chiefs.

They weren't able to duplicate and find another Tyreek Hill that still haunts them to some degree.

And it changed that team that was a challenge.

Like, that's the same with the Dolphins, because I think if you take Tyreek Kill out of this Mike McDaniel attack, like

there's a glaring hole missing.

He also has talked recently, Tyree Kill, that he praised their new wide receiver coach, Robert Prince, and Bobby Sloick, the ex-Texans OC,

basically saying that they finally helped him to understand Miami's scheme and offense, and that he had not in his career until this year taken notes in meetings.

So there's a lot going on with Tyreek Hill because there's like,

he was also on network this weekend and spoke glowingly of Tua and spoke in rich detail about what he's tried to do with his own game to learn and grow.

But then you get this as well.

It's kind of like these players need to be, the Dolphins have to get in there and help him perform better on the mic because this is sort of a weekly thing now that they're talking non-stop.

And I'll go back to one last thing.

The way that Tua had to dance diplomatically around the person of Tyreek Hill and what the teammate experience is like.

You could tell he just wasn't telling you how he really felt in some way, whether they get along or not.

Like, he was leaving part of the Tyreek Hill teammate experience out of that answer, which in reverse, Tyreek Hill's not doing that for the other people on the team the same way.

Now, if they're six and one in October,

probably things will be okay until maybe the cold weather hits.

But if things start out slow, I could see this snowballing, especially if Tyreek's not getting the targets.

It's all, I mean, it's out of a playbook of the D.Va wide receiver that we've seen played out repeatedly over the years.

So just stick a pin in it and remember this conversation if that comes to pass in a couple of months.

In other news, more unhappy players.

Micah Parsons, shortly after we recorded on Friday, Parsons, the star defender of the Cowboys, sent out a long social media post

making a trade request from Dallas.

And he cited, among other things, quote, repeated shots from the organizations and added, unfortunately, I no longer want to be here.

And again,

again, we've been doing this show a long time.

We've been doing summer training camp podcasts a long time.

This is a lot of posturing.

Yes, do I think there's bad blood and hurt feelings here for Parsons?

Yes.

Do I think all this will disappear in a minute if Jarrah adds a zero

or a high digit to the contract offer?

Yeah, I think that could happen too.

But Jerry Jones, for the time being, being, doesn't seem to be backing down in this increasingly messy dance.

Let's listen to Jara because we love listening to Jara.

It seems like that we forget that it's been less than a year and I paid the highest been paid in the NFL to DAC and I paid a big price for lamp.

And anybody that says I'm not interested in

financially rewarding my players

hadn't been looking at the tea leaves.

And so there's

always,

always negotiation.

And the negotiation is to put the best team on the field.

I mean, this is one time when I listen to what Jerry Jones is saying because he also said, I don't want Cowboys fans essentially to lose sleep over this whole,

I wouldn't call it a fiasco, just an elongated negotiation.

It is feel like 18 summers in a row that the Cowboys have one player sitting out there like this, where it's just like, can we get this thing done?

This is going to get done.

I just, that's that's where my belief is.

I think this is all drama and part and parcel.

Am I wrong here?

Like, I feel like this thing's getting done.

It will probably get done, but at the same time, like, the Cowboys Stars and Scrubs

policy of team building is not really inherent to winning football.

And it's just, nope.

To your point, they do this every year and then they end up paying out the nose.

You know, Miles Garrett got four for 160.

Max Crosby got three for 106.

TJ Watt got three for 123.

You allowed other teams to set the market instead of getting ahead of it.

And now you're going to have to pay out the nose.

And you have a player who's empowered and sees what these other guys that he believes he's just as good, if not better than.

And he's saying, now it's my turn or else.

So I don't know.

It's just for a guy that's been an owner slash GM slash team builder for now, you know, over 30 years, 35 years it's weird to see him continually make these mistakes with the most important players on his roster I totally agree because it's just factual that getting this done last offseason would have removed the sentiment around it but also would have been better business the locker room is siding directly and in passion in an impassioned way behind Micah.

Like it's they're not siding with Jerry.

And that makes sense, but it's also like you got to think about the fact that you've got one of the most high high-pressure jobs in the league if you're the head coach.

You've got a first-year head coach in Brian Schottenheimer who's having to answer questions about this or not answer them basically every day.

It's like, can we set the table for once in Dallas where like it just feels like they're ready to go tackle real football when it matters?

In other holdout/slash hold in news, Bills running back James Cook abruptly began holding in,

not participating in practice Sunday or Monday.

Cook Cook did report for the mandatory minicamp in June, but

now he is taking a different tack.

So just keep an eye on that.

The Pell Raiser reported on Sunday that Cook and the Bills aren't far off on a number and remain engaged in talks.

So that sounds like it's going to get done.

In other news, I don't want to talk about contracts anymore.

They bore me.

It's my least favorite subject matter.

I feel like we have to hit on it because that's part of it.

That's what we do.

We cover the news, and these are star players for contenders.

I don't know if Dallas is an actual contender, but they're a very famous football team.

But I don't want to talk about it anymore, Mark.

Very famous football team.

That's like where we are with the Cowboys now.

They're just super famous.

That's part of the problem, too.

I think that

they're content.

Many, it seems like at least some or one inside the building is content with that being the A to Z of the entire experience at this point.

Let's head to America's Heartland, Indiana, where the Colts are trying to make sense and figure out their quarterback depth chart.

And almost more importantly, they're trying to figure out the messaging to the public

on who's QB1.

Is it Anthony Richardson, the former first-round draft pick, who's had a very tough start to his NFL career, but still has the tools that

you would salivate over as an evaluator?

Kind of gross, but just drool pouring out of the sides of one's mouth because he's so big and fast, and the arm is so powerful.

Mark, have you salivated over Anthony Richardson at any point in your life?

To be honest, you know,

I'm cycling back through the months and years, and I don't think that happened to me.

But you do recognize that he has a unique skill set.

Yes, I do.

Okay, Justin, you salivate.

What?

No, I just have to call Mark out.

He did salivate over Anthony Richardson once upon a time when we were leading up to that draft, the famous draft that we did a live stream for where Mark and I were mocking off.

And there was some Richardson hype leading into that moment.

And I actually believe,

if I'm not mistaken, which I very well might be mistaken,

Mark accurately projected that the Colts would draft Anthony Richardson.

Oh,

there's two things happening here.

Well, one, you pitched that you're not even sure if you're correct.

Thank you, Mark Ross.

Yeah, go ahead.

Yeah, Yeah, exactly.

Second, like, the distinction was, did I salivate?

No.

All right.

Anyway, Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones both listed as QB1 on Colt's first unofficial depth chart.

Do we have that?

Does it say that?

I think it says something like Daniel Jones or Anthony Richardson.

Hilarious.

What a mess.

But I get it.

Because otherwise it's a story.

And it's like a story that you don't want anything to do with.

It all feels a little bit like farce,

but, you know, we'll see.

We'll see who shakes out in the end.

And

do you remember real quick?

Do you remember when the Jaguars?

Because

it's annoying how they report these depth charts like at this time of year in some ways.

But remember the Jaguars?

Was it Denard Robinson, I think, was listed as OW offensive weapon?

Stupid.

And it never came to pass.

That would not have been the right distinction.

Right, that was like essentially the end of his career when it was like

the team can't classify you.

You don't have a real position, but we really think you're talented.

So we're going to make up a make-believe position that you are for us.

It never really happened, as I recall.

No.

No.

All right.

And one last kind of news item here.

Well, I'll just run through some quick notes that the Broncos are signing all-pro defensive lineman Zach Allen to a four-year $102 million deal, includes nearly $70 million guaranteed.

Dolphins and Zach Seiler, their defensive tackle reach agreement today on a three-year extension.

Falcons and tackle Caleb McGarry agree to a two-year, $30 million extension.

Chargers linebacker Denzel Perryman is in trouble.

He's been arrested for possession of an assault weapon.

They don't need an assault weapon.

Everybody, they don't need it.

It doesn't fit with

growing one's career typically,

depending on your career.

Raider safety Lonnie Johnson Jr., this sucked, suffered a broken leg fibula during Saturday's practice at a Legion Stadium.

I believe it was a

no, that wasn't.

There was another player that had like a hip drop tackle and broke his or suffered a very serious leg injury this weekend.

But unfortunately, Lonnie Johnson Jr.

also suffers a very ugly injury.

And the Niners sign Robbie Chosen Anderson.

Good for Robbie.

He's just hanging in there trying to make it happen.

I thought he dropped Anderson.

Getting into the news rundown.

That's a big move.

Didn't he drop Anderson?

Wasn't it just Robbie Chosen now?

Gravy?

Gravy?

I'm going to Mark Ross your ass here.

That's a great question.

Let me look it up.

I'm going to Ross you.

Big spot.

Robbie Chosen, previously known as Robbie Anderson.

This is also a guy who once

his name was spelled R-O-B-B-Y, and he changed that to R-O-B-B-I-E.

So lots of names.

Robbie Chosen, previously known as Robbie Anderson and briefly chosen Anderson, but also R-O-B-B-Y slash R-O-B-B-I-E.

Now just Robbie Chosen.

So the rundown, I'm going to go full Ross on you.

The rundown was incorrect, and you put the words into the mouth of the host to make him out to be a fool.

Yes, and no fist hook for you.

Oh, you really fumbled the bag on this one, Justin.

And you totally just Ron Burgundy read exactly verbatim what was in the rundown.

And also, it was to help our audience in case they weren't fully aware of all the name changes that he's undergone.

We get them all in there, and you know who we're talking about.

You finessed that well, Justin.

But yeah, we mentioned the Broncos, and they get that deal done with Zach Allen.

Also, the Broncos are in the news.

Now,

because Sean Payton

did a little sit-down, it looked like, with Charles Robinson of Yahoo,

read the column.

Good calm.

It spoke really to echo the comments that our own

James Palmer made.

Remember, James told us, I really like this.

One of my favorite Palmer moments of the HTC era.

He leads with, I'm at Broncos Camp, and Sean Payton sees me and makes a B-line toward me to say,

man,

Jimmy, I really like this team.

Peak Palmer loved it.

Well, that's kind of the same sentiment that Payton had in his conversation with Charles Robinson.

Here's a quote from that column.

The short-term goal is winning the division.

Remember, the Broncos share a division with the Chiefs who have been in the Super Bowl three straight years.

The short-term goal is winning the division, but this is a team capable of winning the Super Bowl.

I've coached six teams that I thought could win the Super Bowl.

Some went to championship games, some to the playoffs.

This is my seventh team that I think has

that.

And that, Mark, is why they are in heavy contention as the

Can we hear that again?

Team of Mitch C.

That's a placeholder, you know?

Yes.

We might have to work on that again.

Might have to to reach out to our friend Jackie Daytona, who maybe he can update that.

Jackie,

who updated

the Keith song.

Maybe it's time for an update because that one doesn't seem like it's got long-term legs for us.

There's room for him to make an improvement upon it, I think.

Anyway, so just keep an eye on it.

Peyton talking up big, the Broncos.

But I thought that was an interesting

turn or kind of way to look at it i i'm just imagining peyton just

writing on a scratched paper just here are the seven teams that i thought could win the super bowl in my career and this is one of them so they are they're getting they're getting a little buzz mark as a little bit of a super bowl dark horse but let it be stated that we were ahead of the curve just barely we were they don't have on paper like an overt weakness and and for all the

I think you know Peyton creates a lot of his own

issues with reporters because of just the way he is and all that stuff and I get that and I think he enjoys it a bit but

to me like he deserves credit for helping build this team very quickly like they are a legit AFC championship type squad and he pointed out the window in that article they're redoing the whole complex and it's turning into like a state-of-the-art type Denver Broncos they got owners that want to spend money left and right and he pointed to that and said like that's us in construction.

I didn't like that.

That was the one that felt a little cheesy to me.

It was like the, it was such, as I'm reading it, I was like, oh, God, is he going to do it?

You see that big structure right there?

Right.

I was like, don't do it.

Don't do it.

That's us.

We're going to be big and we're coming.

It's like, all right, all right.

Yes, all right.

Are they the team of HTC?

Do we have to bring it to vote?

I forgot how we even did these things, but

it's a few voters but yep all right let's take a break and then we're gonna welcome in aaron shats um of ftn

football almanac fame stay right there

if you're a true hedonist and heed the call the podcast isn't enough there's patreon patreon.com slash heed the call where we've created what we like to see mark as like a extended universe for our show yeah it's like uh you know, we had never traveled to this universe before, but it is rich with

goodies and I think things that are kind of like our side projects, things we love to do.

And if you haven't seen a Friday Fun Show, what are you doing?

Friday Fun Show, Silver Horses with the Sess Dog,

Rolling Thunder with Mark and Jay.

covering the strange and startling.

Don't forget about the Throwback Podcast with Dan and Bob covering the music of our youth.

And coming up this week, the the next edition of it came from the subreddit.

And my goodness, there will be things to talk about this week on that there program.

So, check it all out, it's all there, and it's all for you.

Patreon.com/slash heed the call.

Join the revolution, hedonists.

Welcome back.

Our next guest is,

I'm going to use it.

I'm going to use the P-word, pioneer.

In pro football analytics, for over 20 years, the creator.

That's how you get the pioneer.

You got creator in the title.

Creator of advanced stats, including DVOA.

Ever heard of it?

D-Y-A-R

and adjusted line yards.

You see him everywhere, and he's making the rounds promoting his wonderful

Aaron and his team's

FTN Football Almanac.

Yes, Aaron Schatz, welcome back to Heed the Call.

Thank you for having me on.

Yes, I've been doing this a long time now, haven't I?

You have, but you're, you know, you are, I feel like you're the godfather, right?

You're the godfather of football analytics.

Yeah, I like that.

Heavy wears the crown.

Share it a little bit with Brian Burke, but we're like the two godfathers.

So I've been doing this a long time.

And there's always new stuff to do.

There's always fun football stuff.

Always somebody making a one-handed catch or something crazy.

All due respect.

Do you get

if you were to just go to Wendy's or

Barnes and Noble, do you get stopped and noticed on the street for what you've pioneered here?

Not as much now because they don't show NFL top 10 as much on the NFL network.

There was a period of five or six years where I was doing NFL top 10,

and that was on all the time.

And I would get stopped like at Starbucks by people who had seen me on NFL Top 10.

But since that show is very rarely on at this point, I don't get stopped.

Yeah, we were in several of those episodes during our NFL media run, and like, you know, they would knock those out during like Super Bowl week, and then it would come on TV and like 14 months later, I'd see myself on the screen and be like, oh, God, that was a rough night previously, I could tell.

I look like holy hell forever on television.

Can these things disappear from the grid?

With zero wardrobes back then, too, like just a holy disaster.

I just remember a year at the Combine where we were having dinner at the high velocity at the JW Marriott, and within five minutes, everybody I was having dinner with showed up on that episode of Top 10 on screens.

And I was like, hi, there we all are.

Hey, how are you doing?

All right, let's get into it.

Wonders, oddities, revelations, and horrors of the 2025 FTN Football Almanac.

And yeah, one because

authentic plug from Heed the Call.

We love it.

We love the almanac,

right, Mark?

And it's not just because it's smart and digs into the game in ways that other people are afraid to or don't realize how to, but as Mark and I came up as writers,

that's the thing that read the special sauce for us.

Yeah,

I think we're in an age where you can question like the future of sports writing.

Like it's easier just to go get eight chunky paragraphs that AI authored at this point.

But when I read the almanac,

you've got a number, you've got like a squadron of really quality and different unique writers.

And I try to like, with a couple of them, like Rivers McCann, I'm like, is this his?

I'm going to wait till the end.

But but like, I love just seeing some of the wit and the humor.

And it's while it's like densely packed with incredible information, there is a little bit of a wry, um, squinting glance at some of the teams and what they've done to you.

And I think it's like you're not taking it too seriously, where it's very accessible.

And like, for a younger person wanting to learn about writing and sports writing, it is a pretty inviting treat.

I'm not calling myself younger.

I'm saying if someone else were younger,

that's my favorite part of it.

I'm always proud.

I always thought our differentiator for a long time back when we were football outsiders before I joined FTN was the quality of the writing, that it wasn't just a bunch of numbers, and that I've had great writers come through my staff over the years, guys who aren't with me anymore, like Bill Barnwell and Bill Connolly and Ryan Wilson, to all the guys that are with me now still, like Rivers, Mike Tanier, Dan Pizzuta, Brian Knowles.

So those guys are all on this book.

You might even call it, you know, advanced sports data and analysis with just a touch of of mirth.

You might do that.

Do you have a little bit of wit?

Yeah.

Let's get into it.

Mark, get us going.

So Mark and I picked two teams each that really stuck out to us as strange or startling.

And we're going to get into those teams.

And then I'd like to tee you up on a team that jumped out to you, Aaron, during this process overseeing the whole project.

But Mark, get us going.

Yeah, I am.

The Raiders jumped out at me because I think they've had one of the more fascinating and franchise-altering offseasons.

We can all see that.

You guys dug in really, I thought, powerfully and well, looking at like the Tom Brady effect and pointing to guys like a John Elway or a John Lynch,

and then from the other side, like the Dan Moreno fizzle-out scenario that

there isn't a huge sample size for star players trying to come in and, I guess, be sort of like a football czar.

His position's a little ambiguous with the announcing thing, too.

But you looked at the Raiders.

You must really, as a group, believe in what is about to happen here.

You have them at 8.3 wins, and with an average win total, this kind of threw me higher than the Bears, the Vikings, the Seahawks, the Chargers, the Cowboys, and the Steelers.

So I just wanted to ask you, there's one other line that jumped out that

it was mentioned that the Raiders defense could in quotes shock people.

I just would like to find out where you guys are coming from with this optimism.

I don't think it's unfounded.

It just kind of was not the team I expected to

see this unfold with.

I will note that that was based on the idea that they were getting Malcolm Kuntz and Christian Wilkins back.

Now they're not getting Christian Wilkins back.

They are getting Malcolm Koontz back.

So I would say that right now, my projection for them wouldn't be quite as high on defense as it is in the book.

But yeah, there's stability here.

Pete Carroll, I mean, Tom Brady overseeing things.

We, you know, don't know exactly how much he's overseeing things, but Pete Carroll and having a quality veteran quarterback like Geno Smith brings a lot of stability.

I've talked a lot when I've been doing this promotional tour about teams with a wide range of possibilities.

The younger your quarterback, usually, the wider the range of possibilities.

The Patriots are a good example of a team like that.

The Raiders are the opposite.

I feel like they are a team with a small range of possibilities.

It's really hard to imagine that a team with Pete Carroll as the head coach and Geno Smith as the quarterback is going to only win four or five games.

It's also hard to imagine they're going to win 11 games.

Like they seem very eight and nine to me, much improved over last year, especially on the defensive side of the ball, but also on offense with Smith.

But not,

but

there isn't that great chance of them taking that massive leap forward.

Yeah, that that makes sense.

And you know, I

another team that kind of jumped out to me, and this is a tricky one, Aaron, because

both myself and Connor Orr, who we do the show with, were not as bullish on the Eagles late last season before they got hot, nuclear hot in the playoffs and ran off a huge win streak and obviously took home the trophy.

But, you know, I was curious with this Eagles team because

I think you have them right now slotted at the eighth spot in terms of like expected wins, their playoff percentage.

You have them in the tier where I think it's 57% chance of making the playoffs.

I think that would surprise a lot of people that expected them to be in the top tier of

because of obviously the talent and the success

of last season.

Are there certain teams that

scare you a little bit in terms of your data, what it spits out and what you study?

And it's like, ooh, we're a little bit on an island here, potentially with the Eagles.

And then are you afraid of Eagles fans reading this almanac and, I don't know, swatting your home?

Yeah.

First of all, if Eagles fans want to be skeptical because we were too low on the Eagles last year, they have a right to be because we were too low on the Eagles last year.

Also, the big reason why we're down on the Eagles is that their defense was so good last year.

And something we write about a lot is that offense is more predictable and more consistent than defense.

It is very hard for them to have a defense that is going to be as good as what it was last year, especially because of the amount of talent that they lost, veteran talent, whether it's Josh Sweat, Darius Slay, Milton Williams.

Now,

there are two items here.

One, they are depending on a lot of young players who were later round draft picks, but subjectively we think are very talented.

The system doesn't think that these guys are talented because they were like third and sixth round picks, but whether it's Jalix Hunt, right, the edge rusher, or Moro Ajomo, the defensive tackle, we like these players.

So these, this defense may be better than we're projecting.

And also, the offense may be better than we were projecting because it wasn't that good last year during the regular season.

They were only 13th in offensive DVOA during the regular season, but they took that big step forward in the playoffs.

And we know how much talent there is.

And so maybe we're under projecting the offense a little bit.

The other thing I will point out, number two, hardest projected schedule behind the Giants.

Yeah, I...

Kind of as a follow to that on the offensive side of the ball, like, you know, Barkley had one of the great seasons ever, and you guys did a great job, you know, breaking down, you know, Barkley's running, he had, it's a crazy stat.

So Barkley had 46 runs of 10 or more yards, which led the league.

1,072, so approximately half of his total, you know, over 2,000 rushing yards were on those 46 runs.

So he, and he's always been a boomer-bus guy, right?

Barkley, and you have, you live with that because you, you hope that, you know, he's going to eventually break one.

And that was kind of like the DNA of their offense, right?

Like, wait for Saquon to change this game.

I just, I guess I get a little spooked a running back coming off that type of workload last year, even though relative to other 2,000-yard rushers in the past, maybe it wasn't as big.

But like, that was the perfect season for

what you would ask for Saquon Barkley.

Can you expect that level of greatness again?

And if not, it puts more pressure on a passing game that

where are we at on the Eagles' passing game and how we see see them developing this year in a different offense?

Why, yes, I am picking up A.J.

Dillon in as many fantasy leagues as possible.

Why do you ask?

Yeah, I mean, Barkley's definitely an injury risk.

The thing about Hurts, listen, Super Bowl, fantastic, absolutely deserved the MVP award,

played great in the playoffs against Washington NFC Championship game.

Around early December of last year, nobody was talking about this man as if he were the fifth best quarterback in the NFL.

Now you have a lot of people who are insisting he's number five, right?

We know that one through three are Mahomes, Jackson, and Allen in some order, and everyone pretty much agrees Joe Burrow is fourth.

And then nobody really knows who counts as fifth, but a lot of people now think it's Hurts because of the playoff run.

But again, that playoff run was driven primarily by the defense.

And Hurts also gets to throw to A.J.

Brown and Devontae Smith and Dallas Goddard.

And he's got an amazing offensive line in front of him.

So I don't know how much, how good he is that the Eagles' offense can take a big step forward.

We have them projected ninth, which would be a little bit higher than they were during last year's regular season, but not a lot higher than they were during last year's regular season.

Yeah, and just one more thing on the defensive side of the ball.

First of all, shout out Jalen Carter.

He gets the cover of the football almanac.

That's got to be an honor up there with the gold jacket.

Can you explain to our audience, because there are some signs you guys see for defensive regression, you stated earlier that they were just historically great down the stretch of Fangio's defense.

The plexiglass principle is in play, you write.

What does that mean exactly?

That means that teams that dramatically improve from one year to the next tend to decline in the third year.

It's not always the case, and there are certain teams in which we are actually projecting the opposite.

But for the most part, a unit or a team that dramatically improves will tend to decline, and it's not just regression towards the mean.

Like a team that goes from terrible to average,

regression to the mean would suggest they would stay average, but actually they tend to get a little bit worse in the third year because they kind of go back to what they were before.

So that's the thing about the Eagles is that defense was nowhere near number one the year before.

And yeah, it's a lot of different players.

I mean, obviously, two years ago, they didn't have Cooper Desjean, and they didn't have

Quinyon Mitchell, and they're depending on the young guys like Jalix Hunt and Keely Ringo,

but

and they didn't have Vic Fangio.

But still, there are these trends that exist.

And so

we have the Eagles projected as a top 10 team in all three phases of the game.

It's not that we don't think the Eagles are a really good team.

It's just that defense from week six onward last year would have been one of the 10 best defenses by DVOA since 1978.

That's how good they were if you take September out.

And they're just not going to be that good again.

Speaking of Rivers McCown,

in the Jaguars section, this was an interesting...

read.

He spoke of Liam Cohen, first time head coach.

Call him big boss because this is Liam Cohen's Cohen's outer heaven.

Shad Khan ripped out the guts of his organization for a 39-year-old who had never been a head coach at any level and had just one season calling plays in the NFL.

You have them projected

after a pretty disastrous 2024 for a lot of reasons at nine wins.

That should make anyone who's rooting for the Jacksonville Jaguars very excited because, yes, you've got Travis Hunter here.

You've got a coach that basically helped revive Baker Mayfield.

There's a lot lot to like.

You got Trent Balki out of there.

Their schedule is a pleasant schedule compared to many.

But when you are looking, because this, not unlike the Raiders, there is a lot of new faces here.

And with Las Vegas, you can say, I see reasons for stability, as you mentioned before.

But when it's Liam Cohen and it's

essentially James Gladstone, a new BGM, and you've got Trevor Lawrence questions at quarterback, like, how did you get to the nine-win result here as a group?

We have their defense improving, and part of that is Hunter, and so I don't know whether that's right, because one of the things we've learned is that high draft picks on defense have a more predictable effect than high draft picks on offense.

So our projection system gives you a little bit more for drafting high on defense.

And we counted Travis Hunter as both.

And I don't know whether we should do that.

It's the greatest question of the season is what is Travis Hunter going to do and how are they going to use him and how's it going to go?

But there are other, you know, there are some good defensive players there like Walker, like Heinz Allen.

So we do have their defense improving.

They were very low in turnovers last year.

That's likely to regress towards the mean.

Subjectively, I think I would bet that their projection is too high on defense and too low on offense.

I do believe in William Cohen being able to unlock Trevor Lawrence.

I don't remember who made this this joke because I've quoted it so many times now.

I apologize to whoever made it first, but they said before the Buffalo-Jacksonville game last year, my two favorite quarterbacks are Josh Allen and the idea of Trevor Lawrence.

Perfect.

And right?

Like, don't we all feel like if Trevor Lawrence just had the right receivers and the right offensive coordinator, that there's a top eight quarterback still in that body waiting to come out.

And he's got the receivers now.

Brian Thomas Jr.

is a stud.

And Travis Hunter should be very good.

So if he's got the offensive coordinator, then things are looking good.

We're basically projecting Jacksonville to be average, with the difference being that we have Houston with the number 13 projected schedule and Jacksonville with the number 28 projected schedule.

That was Carrotop that had that joke, by the way, about Trevor Lawrence.

It was.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Funny story.

I ate lunch with Carrotop at the Super Bowl three years ago.

They had that thing.

I'm so glad I referenced Carrot Top for no reason whatsoever.

Go on, Aaron.

Gives out buffalo wings to everybody on the floor at the media center at the Super Bowl.

And I'm sitting there eating, and who comes up with buffalo wings to just eat, stand and eat next to me is Carrot Top.

And we had a little conversation about the Super Bowl, and then we all moved on with our day.

It was very strange.

Did he know that you're the lord of DVOA?

Is he aware who he was?

I knew who he was.

He was shocked.

He had no idea who I was.

No.

Classic Top.

top.

Little did he know.

Yeah, I think they're such an interesting team.

And you mentioned Trevor Lawrence and it was written in this, in this write-up too, that we enter into the fabled Ryan Tannehill discussion with Lawrence.

You know, that this quarterback clearly isn't bad and a supporting cast has clearly been bad.

But does that actually mean he's good?

He is in that place in his career where like, I want to believe in everything I'm seeing for just the makeup, the human body, like just the fact that he was like cut out of like Greek stone.

Like he looks the part and it's not happening like it's in a way an incredible opportunity for liam cohen like do you have personally trust that when you go from like the lone years like the play calling oc to this now i mean this was a weird story because he almost stayed with tampa bay on a lucrative deal and then had to kind of finagle his way into the jacksonville second interview so it was an odd start but um With someone like Liam Cohen, do you trust the idea of him more than other first-year head coaches with Trevor trevor lawrence or is it just a big mystery and a wait and see well i mean i trust him more

in that he's an offensive-minded head coach whereas if aaron glenn was taking over the jaguars i would be like well who's the offensive coordinator oh it's a you know tanner angstrand we don't know much about tanner angstren or whoever you know that's who i believe he brought with him to the jets

um i would feel the same way if ben johnson had taken the jaguars job

you know oh here's an offensive-minded guy who's had success in the past maybe he'll finally unlock Lawrence.

Our projection for the Jaguars offense is 19th.

So we're not projecting as much growth there.

But subjectively, doesn't it feel like it could happen?

Like, if we're a little wrong about the defense, I feel like maybe we're a little wrong about the offense in the other direction.

And

it should be easy.

And,

you know, teams do come.

You know, not every team repeats in the playoffs.

And it usually is more accurate to to predict most of the teams to repeat in the playoffs because you're going to be more accurate that way even though you will be wrong on some of them it's hard to guess which ones you're wrong on but here's one where we're guessing that we you know that this is a new team that will make the playoffs i you know what i need all i asked for aaron with trevor lawrence because i got a little trevor exhaustion at this point is like either be a top 10 quarterback slash offense this year or be like 25th and then we know for sure that he's not a generational star.

Like I, if they end up being like just inside, tucked inside the top 20 in terms of efficiency and their, you know, where they kind of rank, we're going to be having the same conversation again next year.

I don't want to have the conversation anymore.

I'll point out that Houston has the same thing going on that Philadelphia does, which is I believe they were number two on defense last year.

And again, not likely to be as good on defenses this year.

So if Houston doesn't fix their offense, Houston's going to decline and that leaves room for Jacksonville to win the division.

Last one I had, Aaron, is the Niners.

And to my point about the Eagles earlier, that I'm wondering if there's certain teams at FTN headquarters.

I imagine you guys all under the same roof together.

No one's remote.

You're just chopping.

It's like a bullpen where you're just chopping things up.

Maybe it is.

I don't know.

But

that, you know, between the tape dogging and the data mining,

when the Niners have their all-in, or as we thought it to be, season last year, and it goes up in flames and they lose double-digit games.

When you go through your whole process, it once again spits out that they're an elite team potentially, or that's how you kind of see it as the most likely outcome here.

And I just look at this team as like questions on the offensive line, wide receiver, the superstar running back in general, the depth chart there and the health concerns, key pieces gone from the defense.

And

I don't know, like,

I would feel very nervous to peg this team as one of the super, true Super Bowl contenders.

And yet, you guys are on that island right now.

How do you feel about it?

Are you nervous at all about this one?

In Kyle Shanahan, we trust.

Okay.

That's the first element.

There's no doubt that the McVay and Shanahan family of offensive coaches have better offenses, all other things being equal, than everybody else.

They do.

And this is a team that was 13th in DVOA last year, despite all the injuries and the 6-11 record.

They were in the top 10 until the last couple weeks of the season, believe it or not, despite all the injuries.

So they were better than their record.

And now they get a lot of guys back.

And yeah, I don't know what's going to happen with McCaffrey, but he's not the only one.

They get a lot of other guys back, plus some of the young talent they've added on defense.

We're not projecting their defense to be great or anything.

And then add to that, the easiest projected schedule in the league by a lot.

By a lot.

You called them, or DVOA assessed them as the best 11-loss team in the history of DVOA.

Yep.

So you're trusting for, because they've also lost, was it 10,000 snaps

combined in terms of there's a lot of new faces here, and you've replaced, especially on defense, like that does leave you with questions or it's just variables.

But I think this one one feels like organizational trust that you just believe that they're going to get their players are going to be managed well and trained well and appear more ready for a game time.

And the old adage that there's like maybe five coaches, five or six coaches who truly matter, right?

And they have one of them.

Kyle Shanhan is very interesting.

I did some research last year.

We have a stat called

post-game win expectancy that says, based on the numbers in this game, who would you have expected to win?

And certain coaches have a history of outperforming the expectation, like Mike Tomlin, wins more close games than you would expect.

Kyle Shanahan actually loses more close games than you would expect.

It's not a sign of a good coach, but what he gets to get his players into position to be in those games is amazing.

Look at what he's done with the quarterbacks that he's had, including Purdy.

It's amazing.

And so when it comes to building an offense, in Kyle Shanahan, we trust.

Right.

And

then maybe come first weekend of February, then those other data points make you worry.

There's a little bit of a worry for 49%.

I've got to admit, the guy does have a history of underperforming what the in-game stats would suggest about who's supposed to win that game.

He is kind of an outlier, right?

Like one of the most influential, important minds of the 21st century.

And he's still looking for that ship.

Yeah.

That's an achingly high level of pressure, probably on the market.

And I don't think he's going to get it this year.

I don't think this is one of the top five teams in the league to be a Super Bowl contender.

I just, I think that that schedule means they're going to be like a one or a two seed in the NFC.

All right, before we say goodbye to Aaron Schatz, and again, check out the FTN Football Almanac.

Justin, if you could throw up a link where people can get it,

is there a team, like those are the four teams Mark and I really either bumped up against or just found to be interesting.

Is there

a team to you, Aaron, that when you went through this whole process and working with your team that to you kind of exists as a wonder, an oddity, a revelation, or a horror?

First of all, for people who can't see what link you put up and are just listening, I'll say it's ftnfantasy.com slash almanac.

And you can actually read the San Francisco chapter for free.

That is our sample chapter.

Nicely done.

also good job picking up for the host failing in a big spot to account for a huge chunk of our audience the audio listeners all right

he is an old radio guy uh

the um washington commanders we are driving the washington commanders bandwagon this year and i certainly going into my projections would not have expected that there are plenty reasons to see this team regressing The plexiglass principle we talked about earlier, right?

They improved so much last year.

They'll come back to the pack a little bit.

Fourth downs.

They were maybe the best fourth down team of all time.

There's no way that that continues.

No way.

But the system looked, it liked adding Tunsell.

It liked adding Samuel.

It's a big believer in Daniels keeping the same quality as last year.

It likes their defense to improve to average.

And then the schedule difference between them and the Eagles, just to show two of the three games that are different between them, they play Miami and the Seahawks,

where the Eagles have to play the Bills and the Rams.

That's a big difference.

And so

they got to get McLaurin signed.

They're not favorites if McLaurin isn't signed.

But we crazy came out with the Washington Commanders as our NFC East favorites.

That's not to say the Eagles aren't a really good team, but we just...

I was shocked when our numbers came out with the Commanders so high.

And I was thinking about, and we've talked about it on the show.

I'm curious where like C.J.

Stroud going into last year, like how you guys saw him being able to build on or carry on.

I think a lot of people saw C.J.

Stroud making the leap coming off his rookie year, and it didn't happen for numerous reasons.

That were some on him, some on the other team.

Is Jaden Daniels the type of player/slash prospect that you think is more even bulletproof in terms of regression candidate?

Because he's that talented and he has just a better surrounding cast?

Better surrounding cast.

Yeah.

We We didn't think Stroud would take a leap because when quarterbacks play that well as rookies, there isn't much of a leap to take because they're already that good.

And Daniels is in that same category.

You know, very few quarterbacks that good take a leap in their second year.

Marino did.

But they took their biggest weakness on offense and they addressed it, which was the offensive line.

Now, ironically, they addressed it by getting the only good lineman that C.J.

Stroud had.

So that's weird.

But I will fully say, if you want to criticize our commander's projection by saying, didn't you think that Houston was going to still play well and, you know, that Stroud was going to play well in his second year?

Yes, we thought Stroud would play well in his second year.

And it was quite a surprise when that entire offensive line completely imploded.

I will say that, you know, this is sometimes a slap in the face for fans, depending on who you're rooting for here.

And we did our power rankings to not much different results than you have here, but we've got in Justin a Titans fan, in Mark a Browns fan, a disaster in the making, and Dan is a Jets fan.

And they're all buried at the bottom

six here.

And so, you know, that's when I stopped reading the almanac at that point.

I had to put it down.

So

my thing would be that the Titans have the most hope of those three teams.

Because if you look at rookie quarterbacks and number one picks, and you have to predict that rookie quarterbacks will be bad, even number one picks, but

there is a good possibility that they're not bad.

And certainly Cam Ward could lift that team much more than my expectation would be that Justin Fields is going to lift the Jets or Joe Flacco is going to lift the Browns.

And for those who may not be familiar, Cam Ward is the first overall pick in the most recent NFL.

Yeah, I know it's not discussed very much.

Yeah.

And Aaron, because you kind of, in a way, you didn't realize it, but you put Justin ahead of us there, and he's going to have bragging rights within the FTN universe.

We're going to be able to understand that Karma is going to come for you because now he's going to ask you to go on his Titans podcast, and you're going to have to deal with that.

You're going to have to handle that.

We've had Aaron.

We had him on pre-draft to talk about Cam Ward, actually.

It'll be easier once we know, I mean, after we've seen a few weeks of what Cam Ward is.

I mean, Cleveland and the Jets have better defenses, but it's having that young quarterback who hits that obviously mattered so much to Houston and mattered so much to Washington.

And if it happens, it will matter so much to Tennessee, or he'll have Caleb Williams as rookie year, and Tennessee will win five games.

You get on that Titans podcast, and that's when Carrot Top starts to take notice of you in public.

He's a big Tennessee guy, yeah.

Aaron Schatz, you've done it again.

FTN fantasy.

And make sure you get your hands on this football almanac because if you don't, you're just not serious.

Be informed, get in with the almanac.

Thank you, buddy.

Hey, thanks for having me on, guys.

There he goes.

Always informative.

Feel smarter, Mark.

And as someone that got a 39 once on a state-mandated math test during my high school years,

you know, it's humbling to have conversations with a man who thinks of football

as a science/slash math problem to be solved.

Yeah,

it puts us back in our place a little bit.

You know, one area that I think we've got like a shared Venn diagram is that I also was not a looming candidate to create DVOA as a young adult or adult or even now or ever.

So that's the special nature of him.

I wish we could have almost done like four more teams because there's so much in that book.

But he said, you know, we could maybe revisit in the middle of the season and see where they hit home runs and where they didn't hit a home run.

The other thing, the strikeout.

Yeah, I'd love to have Aaron on.

He's smart.

All right, that's it for today's show.

We're going to be back on Wednesday.

Connor's going to be rejoining us.

And I promise, this is it.

This is it.

We are going to talk about the Netflix quarterback series.

Come hell or high water, we're talking quarterbacks and maybe even Happy Gilmore, too.

I mean, the tease has been out there for a while, but I think this,

if it gets, let's put it this way, if it gets side-swiped again, Mark, we know there's something else bigger at play in the universe, but it's locked into the rundown for Wednesday.

I have complete faith that it might happen.

Well, I'll take that.

All right.

And everybody, have a great day.

Do what you must.

Heed the call.

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