Super Divisional Round Preview Spectacular

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The Heat to Cup Podcast.

Can't wait for Alan V.

Lamar,

retirement now.

Like, honestly,

why not?

Why not ramp up the stakes just a little bit more?

Unsolicited advice to 345 Park.

Like, it reminds me of WrestleMania 7, Randy Savage versus Ultimate Warrior, retirement match.

Warrior wins.

Savage goes away for like the equivalent of if, let's say, Josh Allen, after losing a game this weekend, like he came back six months later.

So whoever loses, we say they retire.

We have all the juice juice that comes with that, the press conferences, the tears, and then that guy shows up for voluntary OTAs and nobody even thinks anything of it.

Anyway, just a thought.

Always trying to make the product better.

Welcome to Heed the Call.

Dan Hans is here.

Great crew.

New crew, Jordan Rodrigue, Mike Dugar, Connor Orr.

Mark quit.

He no longer works on the show.

Just kidding.

Mark's okay.

Mark's a little under the weather today.

So, Connor, thank you for pinch hitting.

Of course.

This is an honor.

It's good to see the other half of the crew.

Hi, guys.

Hi, Connor.

Yo, yo.

This is like one of those sitcom crossovers.

Hello, everybody.

It's like one of those sitcom crossovers

where, you know, we just don't know how it will go.

And it could go great.

It could be a chemistry disaster.

We'll talk about sitcoms a little bit.

Two later.

Don't worry, though.

Mark, relax.

Get your rest.

Mike, so we're just going to, this is a live-action chemistry exam, and we're going to see how we do.

Are you feeling confident?

Yeah, always.

I have faith in this.

All right, that's good.

It's like spoken like a man wearing a hoodie that has Tupac and the Beatles on it at the same time.

It's going to be a wild show.

I can feel it.

Yeah, it's definitely.

I looked it up before we went on.

Yes, the picture is definitely real of Tupac dressed in Detroit Red Wings gear and a bandana spitting on a camera, leaving a courthouse, I believe, in 1994, 1995.

Yeah, I did a quick search.

Tupac spits at the reporters after leaving state Supreme Court

May 7th, 1994.

94.

There we go.

I look like it was yesterday.

Yeah, the Beatles.

Looks like that's early period Beatles.

Strange bed fellows, just like this show, Jordan.

Just like this show.

I'm very excited, though.

I know, I'm fired up.

I've been excited for this.

I was sad to miss last week.

So this is good.

This is fun.

I have lots of notes that I will not ramble about, Dan.

I promise.

Well, this is, yes, we're going to try to bring this thing under three hours.

There's only four games to talk about,

but they are, you know, four of the best games all season.

Everybody knows it because there's nothing, nothing, in my opinion, better than divisional round weekends.

So we're going to have fun.

Remember, we're going to do our fearless predictions at the end of the shows.

Because of all the horrible stuff with the fires last week and the preview show was just Mark and I, we pushed fearless predictions a week.

Skins competition, this week's fearless predictions worth double.

Okay?

I'm ready.

Oh, yeah.

So the competition just got

Michael Sean Dugar, expert at Fearless Predictions ethos, and I tried to go big on this one.

So smart.

I've been like saying that

all year to myself, but then Mike just puts in that little extra bit of effort that I can't do.

So I just keep on making the same dumb shit over and over again that doesn't work.

And Connor, you're going to be picking on behalf of this cess dog this week.

So you have to do right by him because he's tied with me for last place right now.

So there is a different type of competition going on at the bottom of the standings.

That was my question.

And so I immediately need to just rewrite this quick and predict like a death or something, like a plague or something very, very sad and strange.

So I'll get back in the workshop.

All right.

Let's get to it.

Let's start where we must.

Let's start with the retirement match, okay?

Let's start with the game

that I, I think I said on the last show,

every year there's usually one game that's an absolute beauty, right?

At least one, usually more than one, in the playoffs.

But the one that really stands out, and to me, this is the one that really stands out.

I refer, of course, to the Baltimore Ravens,

champions of the AFC North and winners in the wild card round.

Easy victory over the hated Steelers traveling to Orchard Park to face the number two seed Buffalo Bills retirement match.

Okay, it's not a retirement match.

It should be a retirement match.

It's not, but the stakes are that big.

This is on CBS Sunday, 6.30 Eastern kickoff.

Nance, Romo, Wolfson.

Jim.

Connor, I'll start with you as our special guest on this Thursday show.

Not a retirement match.

However, there's got to be an intense, well, I'm sure in these locker rooms and at these facilities, the excitement and everything and the adrenaline is off the charts, but they're human.

In the back of their mind, the stakes are so high because if you wake up on Sunday on the wrong side of this game, organizationally, it is chaos and pain on a level that you probably won't find anywhere else in the league spinning forward.

And it's interesting because, at least how I read it,

we make this game about the quarterbacks, but it's going to be the one team that successfully takes the other quarterback out of it and disallows mobility.

And I was thinking a lot about how Josh Allen down the stretch last year had a couple of these games where where teams started using unorthodox players to spy him and to hit him and to dissuade him from running.

And Baltimore, just from top to bottom, seems to contain the most amount of players who could do that to him and to really disincentivize him from leaving the pocket.

And so, as much as I want this to be one of these games where both of these guys throw for 400 yards, I think it's going to be one of those where the quarterbacks get hit early, they get hit really often, and it's going to be about what is your two through 11 look like?

What's your supporting cast look like?

And you throw the weather in there, too.

You know, I don't know if this is exactly going to be the game that the NFL is hoping to get out of it.

I think part of the problem, too, when you do decide that you're going to make that your game plan, it's hard to then switch out of it if you find that now, okay, you're using a player to spy and sort of float in this void watching Josh Allen and sort of just defending him at a distance.

And you're leaving that space then open on the field for other players to attack.

And I think that when you see what the Bills and Joe Brady are able to do, they do maximize the amount of space, length, and width on the field, particularly when they get the running backs involved in the passing game, some of those like quick outlets.

And then they're very comfortable running the ball without Josh Allen.

I think what I like about that.

potential, Connor, that you bring up with Josh Allen specifically is over time, and I saw this when he came to SoFi and just went total insanity mode against the Rams in that comeback effort.

They're cutting him loose earlier and earlier in games.

Last week, watching him play, you could see right away they were like, All right, Josh, go play Josh Allen football.

And where they were a little bit more careful with him early in the season, they maximized efficiency, they really prioritized getting the passing game developed and getting him into rhythm with some of those receivers that he hadn't had a ton of reps with.

And then getting some of those tight ends more integrated into the scheme as well in the running backs.

And so now you're seeing him, it's it's as early as the first quarter this time you didn't see it till the second half a few weeks ago and now you're seeing it as early as the first quarter and so i think if they do that then you're going to see baltimore react and say okay well maybe we have to make sure that we're accounting for all of the space on the field less so um we we know the quarterback is going to get some against us

yeah dan i think this is uh on top of maybe the retirement game it's like the legacy game unfortunately uh because they're both kind of young i don't have both their ages in front of me but uh the guy who loses, and I'm focusing this on the quarterbacks, like the guy who loses is going to have a tough season.

He's going to have a tough offseason, that is.

He's going to have a tough time sleeping because you're going to have another season where you don't get, you don't even get to the AFC title game, let alone win it, you know, and reach the Super Bowl.

And it's a fascinating one because like for people like me who or fans who like have a team where their quarterback, maybe you don't know if he's the guy or whatever, he's up for a contract, you know, like a Brock Purdy situation.

You know, when they, when they're making those arguments, usually against keeping that quarterback or paying that quarterback, it's, well, he's not, you can't get to a Super Bowl with insert, you know, whichever guy, Brock Purdy, Geno Smith, a Kyler Murray, whoever is in that conversation at the time.

And what they usually point to is like, he's not a Josh Allen, he's not a Lamar.

No matter what happens in this game, one of Josh Allen or Lamar won't even get to a title game.

Damn the Super Bowl.

They could both not get there if the Chiefs, you know, at the annual Arrowhead Invitational get there.

But it just speaks to just the overall difficulty of how hard it really is.

Like both of these teams are pretty stacked.

Like the Ravens and Eagles like have probably the two best rosters when healthy, I think, in the playoffs, in my opinion.

And like the AFC, the Ravens roster is like nasty.

And it just, it sucks.

In my notes, I was looking at it, writing some stuff up about this game.

And I think at the end, I was just like, it's a shame that one of these guys does got to lose.

Because even if it's not their fault, We're in for a pretty, I think this is the last game of the weekend too.

We're in for a pretty like special hot take Monday, which I will engage in too, in bad faith sometimes if I just have time with my daughter's sleep or something.

But it's a shame because if one of these guys could really ball, and I actually think the Ravens are going to win, but like even no matter what direction it goes,

I feel like

this should not be, but it will be probably an indictment of one of them or team building or their franchise or whatever.

And it sucks because the real like nuance takeaway should just be, it's hard to win in the NFL and it's hard to get to conference title games.

And especially in the AFC.

We kind of had this conversation in a different manner earlier in the week when we talked about how the AFC,

in this era of football, and by the way, Lamar and Josh are both 28.

Lamar just turned 28 last week.

They are playing,

you know, these guys are playing in their 20s at the peak of their career.

Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes.

They're just like in these death matches every January.

And so far, the only guy to get out of it clean is Mahomes, right?

To his eternal credit.

And the Kansas City Chiefs.

Burrow did get to one Super Bowl and fell short, as Jordan knows more than anyone.

And then Allen and Lamar are both waiting for their turn.

So when we look back, this is, you know, above the treetops because I'd like to dive back into the grittiness of the game and the nitty-gritty.

But like

one, two, or maybe even three of these four potential Hall of Fame quarterbacks, their career is going to be defined by not being able to get over the mountaintop just by virtue of who they ended up playing with in their era.

So all that stuff is baked into it.

Now, as someone who's just, I love football and I love the history of the game.

Like that's part of the reason this game, Connor has me so jazzed because these two guys are to me like in their contemporary moment, like watching all-time greats at the apex of their career.

And yet one of them is going to come out of this game feeling in a really dark place and looking at his legacy as anything but secure.

But they shouldn't, right?

And who has the game?

CBS, right?

Yeah.

Okay, so here's my one thing.

Like if CBS could just take one piece of advice, we need like a Surgeon General's warning on the bottom of this game that says Lamar Jackson has as many playoff wins in the first seven years of his career and has better postseason statistics through those first seven years than Peyton F.

and Manning.

Okay, let's put it there.

Let's keep it in the bottom third of the thing the whole time.

Do we have like a C.

Everett Coop head next to just a graphic there?

Just like, okay, so when we get when we log on on Monday and everyone's like, oh, Lamar Kittwin, the playoffs, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, all this stupid stuff,

I don't think there's a singular player that's had a bigger impact on the NFL and the future of the NFL than Lamar Jackson since I've been covering the game.

And I think that even if he loses this game, it shouldn't make us think otherwise, but it will because people are idiots.

But I just want that in the bottom third of the TV the whole time.

And I don't think that's a large ask for CBS.

All right, 2 to 11, Connor.

I think you said you like Baltimore in this game, too.

Why Why do they get it done 2 to 11?

Well, I know there was a lot of talk, right?

I mean, I think this defense took some time to adjust when Mike McDonald left.

And I think that there was a growth period there.

But I just think they have different types of players who can play different types of games a little bit better.

Where if this turns into a fast break, Baltimore's got a certain set of personnel on the field.

If this turns into a, you know, three yards in a cloud of dust, I like Baltimore's chance to adjust a little bit better defensively.

I just think they have the bodies to do it, whereas I think Buffalo needs a few more things to go right.

Now, I was really impressed at the way that they played the run, quarterback run against Denver, although it didn't really end up mattering all that much.

But I just don't think they have the speed 2 to 11.

I don't think they have the body types 2 to 11 that Baltimore has.

I liked how calm Buffalo stayed when Sean Payton's script was executed, like his scripted calls went perfectly, like better than anyone.

And he even had like sort of a f ⁇ you call in there too as

he tends to do as well that that deep throw um touchdown so i liked how calm they stayed i think they're going to need that composure buffalo will because the ravens are going to throw so much at them and the reason i'm picking the ravens in this game is because of this series not only do i think that they just have a the most complete roster in the nfl right now and have for some time and the pieces are all fully activated this late in the season um other than the potential of zay flowers who we're still sort of waiting to hear about whether he's able to go.

But the series that Lamar Jackson threw, the touchdown pass through Rashad Bateman last week, to me, encapsulated so much about what this Ravens team is capable of doing.

Because on that drive, they executed a sequence of inside run plays with Derrick Henry that all featured like these tiny little minute details that gave a pause to the defense because they had just a little bit extra to look at and diagnose on everything.

It could have been the way that the blocking surface was about to lay out through the efforts of not just the linemen, but the tight ends, the receivers, the fullback.

Or it was the way that Lamar's cadence would operate.

They would force hesitation because, oh, is this maybe going to be a pass play?

And obviously, you have the threat of runner pass with him every single play.

It was the way that he was even pulling the ball back and delaying the fake handoff or the handoff itself.

And then by the time they started figuring it out near the very end of the drive, he did pull back and purely throw a great touchdown pass.

And that's what playoff football really is.

The teams that make you figure them out drive after drive after drive, play after play after play, in different ways.

And then the next time you come out and take the field with your offense, that's not the way that they have to defend you.

Those teams win deep into the postseason.

The Ravens have had the capability of doing this, but I don't think they've had the dudes and the execution over time over these last few years.

And this year, I think they do.

And that's why I'm picking them because I think that they're just, they're too much mentally and physically to handle.

Because if all of that fails, they're just going to run in your face.

Zay Flowers.

I got it.

I swear.

I promise.

Zay Flowers did not practice on Wednesday.

John Harbaugh told reporters

on Monday the Ravens were in we'll see mode with Flowers.

So we'll keep an eye on what happens today.

But the number one wide receiver, who they didn't seem to miss overly

in their wild card round, but this is a different beast, and we've talked about how important Flowers is to their offense.

Also on the weather front, here we go.

Zuzzer checking in, the meteorologist.

Putting it on.

The game is Sunday evening.

Huh?

Huh?

28 degrees.

Mainly cloudy.

24% chance of

snow right now, Mike.

All right, let's go around the horn.

Mike, so you have Baltimore.

What's the score you got?

Let's see.

I'll go 23-20, which I think would be a decent show, decent showing for Buffalo's defense, which I'm really not a fan of.

I don't generally like turnover-reliant defenses, just as a general rule, there, which they are.

And then the Ravens don't really turn it over that much.

I think they have their lowest turnover rate.

So, yeah, got a close one.

Hopefully, it really doesn't come down to either kicker.

But yeah, like 23-20, Baltimore.

How about you, Connor?

28-27, Baltimore.

I was going to,

Mike, convinced me to just push the score up just slightly after his thoughts.

So I was like, you're right, you're right.

All right.

28-27.

Some sort of a misfield goal comes into play, but not by Justin Tucker.

Ooh, something.

Ooh.

I'm talking about legacies, boy.

He better not miss

a kick of consequence like that in this game.

Jesus.

Jordan, we remember how the Bills went out last year.

It was a missed kick by the guy who's still the kicker, Tyler Best.

So there's that element of the story as well.

What's your your pick?

I'm picking the Ravens.

You guys will not be shocked because I'm so good at lines and things like that that I did not do scores, but I'm going to go on the fly here.

27, 23 Ravens.

Okay.

Dan, can you pick a score of Gami?

I mean, it's so easy to pick a score of me because there's 1,000 of them.

But yeah, I'll try.

I'll try.

How about, I don't know,

37, 33 Bills.

I love them.

I'll be the guy that says this will be remembered as the quarterback game because very rarely have we seen two quarterbacks as locked in at the same time as Allen and Lamar.

I don't see either laying an egg in this game.

And I think they go back and forth and the Bills win because they have the ball last.

It's like one of those games.

And

maybe

Connor.

And I'll own up to it.

I'm just like a basic.

But like part of my love of the game is all that stupid stuff that we get caught up with because I love the theater of it all and these big stars like going head to head, even if they're never sharing the same field.

I always see like the NFL season is just like a long movie or a prestige TV season.

And this is like the penultimate type episode where all the real shit happens and then everything else is

kind of just settling matters otherwise.

I can't wait just to see not just like how the game goes, but the post-game and the conversations that are had afterwards.

You know, that's just me, Connor.

I guess I'm a basic.

There you go.

We need more people like you because

week two of the playoffs is like the blackness of my heart takes over and I'm just like, you know, like the NFL sucks and you're going to get Texans, Rams, and the Super Bowl because that's what you deserve, you know?

So just to have your like, you know, you know, to have your energy and your enthusiasm, I think, is very necessary.

Man.

Isn't it weird that Amari Cooper, by the way, doesn't have Amari Cooper doesn't have any role in the offense, really?

Like that was supposed to be the piece that was going to take their wide receiver group, but they're totally fine.

Like, their offense is totally fine without Amari Cooper being the guy that they ostensibly got him to be.

It just speaks to Alan's ability to just make things happen.

And how good Khalil Shakir's been, too.

He's been awesome.

Really good.

All right.

Let's keep moving.

Football, sports.

to love them.

All right, let's go to the Saturday evening game.

The Washington Commanders, the sixth seed in the NFC, traveling to Detroit to get the Lions.

Now,

this is, yeah, Saturday, 8 p.m.

Eastern on Fox.

It's Burkhart.

It's Brady.

Big Brady game, Connor, Andrews, and Ronaldi.

So here we go.

I mean, the Detroit Lions,

Mike, are a team that they are America's team.

Everybody wants the Detroit Lions to see it through and get to their first Super Bowl.

The Commanders, are they a pushover?

I know the story is that the Commanders can give this team a scare or even maybe steal a game, but do you find that this is the game that the Lions are going to be tested to their limits?

So I will read, I think this is the last note that I had after diving into this game late last night.

Quote, from me, quoting myself, this is great.

I love that move.

Gotta love it.

This is a big-ass spread, but honestly, I think it might be appropriate.

The Lions offense is a weapon of mass destruction, and the Commanders have some very productive individual players, two all-pro linebackers, but not sure they have the horses, end quote, from myself.

Because I tried to talk my,

when I was looking at these games, I kind of went into it from the lens of, can I talk myself into the underdog winning?

Which got a little tricky because the spread flopped it, flip-flopped in the Ravens game.

But in the other three, it was very easy to go through it with that lens.

And I was like, eh,

not really.

I think what this game could come down to, just very simply, is a fourth down variance.

It's a teaser for my fearless prediction.

Because that was really the key, I thought, to that commander's game.

You know, they were trying to maximize their opportunity to score points.

And I think it really mattered.

I think they went for four of them, got two of them.

I think...

Three of the fourth down decisions, the opposite decision would have been a field goal attempt.

I think one of the other ones would have been a punt.

And that really, I thought that won them the game.

And I thought like the Lions have the the one seed in part because they were on the right side of fourth down variants in that Vikings game.

Vikings just got screwed because the fourth down stuff was just a mess.

And the Lions were better in those situations and boom, they got the one seed.

And the Vikings are, you know, are out of here.

But I think any team, that's why I bring up the variants, because any team can upset someone when you're just talking about that.

Fourth downs are a coin flip.

Maybe there's a holding penalty.

Maybe there's a face mask.

Maybe a defender falls down.

The weather won't matter here.

But just there's so many things that could happen.

You know, ineligible downfield is called or it's not that's been a funky penalty um this year for teams with screens and rpo stuff so i think if there is a way for the commanders to win this game maybe it's a shootout or whatever but i do think it kind of comes down to that like when you got the ball like you got to have your foot on the gas try to maximize every possession uh you know roll the dice every time that it's applicable which cliff and dan quinn have been really good at so i still like the lions and i actually like them big but i do think they just got to kind of get weird if you're the commanders particularly when you're on offense because i'm just not a fan as much as i love bobby wagner as the homie i'm just overall just kind of not moved by the commanders defense which i think is going to be a problem connor you're shaking your head in agreement yeah i just i i hope like to mike's point right it's like don't do what you would assume that people would do against the lions which is try to hold on to the ball and try to limit possession you're not going to win that game i mean they have the best offensive line in the nfl the best most dangerous running game in the nfl get weird Like, now is the time.

And, you know, Cliff Kingsbury's got a lot of diversity.

I mean, like, he's called a couple different offenses.

I mean, the air raid, when he brought it to the NFL, was so McVeigh-ized by his staff out of necessity because it wasn't really functional by the time that he tried to call it for Kyler Murray.

But then you have all this different stuff that's sort of beautiful and it sort of melds in different ways.

Just throw the kitchen sink at this.

Like, you have to.

I mean, there's really no other choice.

Yeah, I like that these teams are shades of each other.

Just one is the one is the future and one is like the past.

Like the commanders are where the kind of where the lions were several years ago, except obviously record overachieving.

But in terms of their ethos, like people forget that the lions were always trying to maximize their downs and maximize points and chase those fourth downs and make those decisions.

It just was happening sort of anonymously because nobody was paying attention to them when Dan Campbell first took over other than laughing at him because of some of the shit that he said in the press conferences.

Well, Dan Quinn and Cliff Kingsbury early in this team sort of rebuild and similar to the Lions had big questions on defense, have to continue to build that out.

And they're doing those types of things, the risk-taking and trying to maximize every single down, including on fourth down, as best that they can.

They are both calling these games, both coaching staffs, and I think in an extremely hyper-modern way.

And a lot of that has to do with the trust that is built so early between Cliff Kingsbury and Dan Quinn and Jaden Daniels, who has stayed remarkably calm.

And I think if they do have something that they can lean on going into this really tough environment, and I think the Lions are going to are going to win, but going into this really tough environment, it's his composure.

It is his unflappability and also the way that he can put defenses in conflict, a defense that's playing a lot better in Detroit right now as well.

The Lions

are coming off, obviously, that great win that really destroyed the Vikings.

They already killed a team.

They already eliminated a team.

The Vikings were never the same after that week 18 game, and it was Aaron Glenn's masterclass that's going to get him hired as a head coach, I think.

So from that standpoint, they're in a very good place, I'm sure, headspace-wise.

I'm curious how, and I think I know the answer to this, but we talk about the aggressiveness, and that's what a lot of people are talking about because...

The Commanders and Quinn are the same way as the Lions in some ways.

The last time the Lions were in a playoff game, it was the 34-31 loss to the Niners.

And Dan Campbell, after being lauded for his ballsy nature, he faced a lot of criticism for two critical failed attempts on fourth down in the second half where he gave up chances to kick field goals in a game that he lost by a field goal.

With the stakes higher, is there anything that Campbell changes about his outlook on the playoffs that maybe differentiates from the regular season to now?

Or is we going going to see the same Campbell?

I kind of think that's the way he is, Mike.

Dan Campbell is not going to change anything about him.

Also, there is something to be said from learning and adapting and reining in some of your bolder tendencies.

But at the same time, as I say all this, I think they're going to do the same thing they always do, even if similar situations present themselves against the Commanders or whomever.

Yeah, and I think one of those fourth-down plays that he got killed for was like a Josh Reynolds drop, I think, which is just a brutal play to to have your season depend on.

But I think doing what you normally do just because it is what you normally do can be a dangerous game.

Like I do think there is sometimes room for criticism of that.

You should just do what's right in that situation.

Sometimes that may be conservative.

It just kind of depends, time score, look at, you know, weather, whatever, you know, and I think Dan Campbell has been very good at that.

Not just, okay, we just go for it.

So we're the go-for-it team.

That actually becomes then bad process.

I think you just need to go, well, this is the score.

This is the look we want.

Maybe one of their starting corners is hurt.

So we kind of like, you know, J-Mo's matchup here.

So we're going to go.

You got to play the moment.

And I think Dan did that correctly, I believe, in every situation last year in that Niners game.

And so far, he's been doing it pretty good this year.

So yeah, I think that

both of these teams have done that really well.

I haven't watched as much commanders earlier in the year, but I do know Jayden, every time I watch him, he is nails in those cut situations.

To Jordan's point, I was just looking it up just now.

You know, Jaden leads the league this year in drop back EPA on fourth down.

Dude, it's cash.

Now, these sample sizes aren't huge, but like, that's impressive for a rook.

I'll read you the top five.

It's Jaden, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff, and Kirk Cousins.

You know, like, so we got two of the top four most efficient fourth down quarterbacks in this game.

You know, I don't think that's an that I think that contributes to why these guys are here and why their offenses are so good.

And it shows how like this game could be close if either one of these numbers just kind of gets funky because fourth downs, third downs, they often get weird.

I just think ultimately

that Lions offense, man, it's a scary, it's a scary thing.

Their tricky thing on fourth down is, where's the ball going?

You know, whereas on fourth down with the commanders, you can kind of be like, let's double Terry.

You know, it's not a guaranteed game plan as the Bucs just learned, give up a touchdown.

But, I mean,

it's a plan that I trust a little bit more going into this game.

Yeah.

And

on the Lions offense,

they're expecting running back David Montgomery back, who's the Knuckles to the Sonic Knuckles tandem in the backfield.

He's missed the past three games.

He has a knee injury.

Kevin Zeitler, their guard, cornerback Terion Arnold, both injured in week 18 against the Vikings.

He can't guarantee either of those players will be playing, but getting back Montgomery Connor is a big piece in terms of the balance of their offense.

I just have a weird take on that.

I think like watching Jameer Gibbs in a solo role, like I'm not saying that Montgomery isn't valuable.

And clearly when we saw Gibbs getting stuffed at the goal line, there was, you know, some find a way to pound this thing in there.

You know, Jameer needs to develop a little bit at the goal line, but I think like having him involved in an every down role did do more to an opposing defense just because of the threat of receiving more constantly different stuff that he can do out of the backfield.

Just like watching him, watching what he did to opponents, even during training camp, during like joint practices, it's like this guy needs to be on the field every day now.

Montgomery is a great complimentary back, but the every other series thing kills me sometimes.

Like I'm like, he needs to be in there more.

I don't think that's a weird take.

I like that take because, you know, we all know that.

coordinators are very petty and they talk about each other all the time and they sort of like assess and they see, okay, that guy stole my idea and now I hate him for life, but we're going to shake hands and smile at each other at meetings and like all of these things.

We know this, right?

But I hear a lot of respect when you can put linebackers in conflict effectively.

Like all that pettiness kind of goes away and that's like, all right, he's cool, you know, like, and Ben Johnson does that, right?

Ben Johnson does that to where he, every other offensive head coach or offensive coordinator in the league could be deliciously petty about this guy who is like the hot shot coordinator with like the stellar reputation who could probably have his pick of any job he wanted in the entire league and probably several feeder leagues in other countries.

But they respect him and people really talk about him with admiration because specifically, and it's like this measuring stick of how well and how creatively do you put linebackers in conflict.

Now, the way that he used Jameer Gibbs did that and does that.

And I think that having the idea of David Montgomery available does give Washington something extra to prepare for, whether or not that means he is in a significant role on the field.

Any delay you can give an opponent throughout the course of a week when it's matchup football time in the postseason, that's important.

And with Bobby Wagner going to be back this week, Dan Quinn just told reporters this in Washington this morning as we're recording this.

And Frankie Louvu, that is going to be the red circle on the whiteboard for Ben Johnson and utilizing hybrid players against these extraordinarily talented linebackers who are the heart and soul of that defense.

And maybe Bobby being a little bit banged up, but probably even a power through.

I mean, Mike's probably seen a playthrough way worse than this.

But having those guys circled on the whiteboard to me is going to really define this game.

I do think it's weird that Tom Brady is actively going to be interviewing Ben Johnson and calling him.

I'm sure we could rant about that like another time, but like, I think that's really weird personally.

Pick a lane, Tom.

You just have to, we have to care about little rules like in

some corner of society for like just a little bit longer.

And like football is the perfect place to be like like anywhere and i don't i don't wherever you know

you know you guys probably know what i'm referring to but it's like you know like can football be the one place where we're just like here's how the rules are written and no matter who you are you have to follow them thank you you know

i feel like

just says crazy stuff

I can't wait for Tom to tell us that like, oh, on third and long that we're going to pass or like, you know, all the other brave insights that he's had so far this season as a broadcaster.

Let's pick the game.

Let's pick the game quickly.

I see Washington, and all due respect to Washington, successful.

In fact, the same exact things I was saying about the Denver Broncos last week, I'm going to say about the Washington Commanders this week.

There is no shame in how this is going to end.

You have had a successful building block season, and you have the right rookie quarterback to go on the road in the playoffs and go into this game with the right headspace.

Hell, just like Bo Nicks, you know, he hits his old college teammate for a touchdown early in that game to put a little scare in the home team.

I could see that happen in this game, too.

But I think the Lions will overwhelm the Commanders the same way the Bills did.

And for that reason, I will give it the identical head score,

a final score, which was what?

38-7?

38-7

Lions over Commanders.

Jordan.

I'm going to go,

let's see, 31-14.

And I do, I'm picking Detroit.

I do want to take a small piece of time to shout out Zane Gonzalez, the commander's kicker, former Arizona State Sun Devil.

He has been open about his struggles with obsessive-compulsive disorder, and the entire world saw that right up close.

Dan, and I know you'll love this because you cover kickers, like that's like your side job is you're on the kicker beat.

And he was out in the end.

Dan covers hair very well.

And also hair.

He has great hair as well.

I wonder if you guys could meet up and talk about Redkin for men kind of thing.

So, but he's been open about his struggles with obsessive-compulsive disorder since he was in college.

And a lot of the world is not aware of this.

And so I wanted to share that for not only our listeners, but the UK listeners as well who might not be aware.

To be a kicker, Dan, like think about that.

And have obsessive-compulsive disorder and push through and to make that game-winning kick.

I just wanted to shout him out at the end of this.

I don't think that's going to make a difference in this game.

I don't think either kicker is going to make a difference in this game.

But I did want to shout him out.

Yeah, OCD or not, and that's good for him.

And I'm glad that we didn't have fun at his expense the other day without knowing that.

We don't want another Ed Begley Jr.

situation

from our Patreon Christmas special.

Just loot me in on this.

Yeah, no, no, no.

But it was you.

He did put it off the upright and looked very nervous too, separate of all that.

So, you know, the kicking is very hard in the playoffs.

And shout out to him.

Your final score was what?

I believe I said 31.14.

31 14 all right Connor that was gonna be so that was gonna be the score that I picked so I'm gonna go 30 to I'm gonna price this right Jordan and go 30 to 14 and also just

a little bit of housekeeping I lied about the Broncos bill score it was 31 7 not 38 7 so if you want to adjust yours

I have now adjusted it it is a 31 to 7 final in favor of the Lions thank you Connor and money mike All right.

It's weird.

We're all like the same point total.

I like 31.23, though.

I have a little bit more faith in the Washington offense.

And I'm glad we brought up Brady because I thought he was really bad on the game he called over the weekend.

I almost enjoyed Greg Olson's commentary on

Twitter about the game more than whatever else was saying.

I don't get to listen to many broadcast copies live, you know, during the season because I'm traveling and stuff.

So I think that was maybe like my third time hearing Brady.

And I was just like, oh, this stinks.

So maybe I'll just follow Greg Olson and just get updates on his tweets.

Do you think that was like a behind?

I was wondering it was.

Like, it's just like, oh, here's what I would say if I was in the job.

Yeah, of course.

Yeah, I think that was totally intentional by Gira.

Yeah, for sure.

Good for him.

It was no coincidence.

Yeah, and I loved every bit of it.

Yeah, and Greg is like the unofficial mascot of the show as well for reasons.

And so I think that like hashtag reasons.

For reasons.

And so

I have loved like sort of this like little subtle pettiness or not so subtle pettiness.

I remember back when there was news about Brady getting that A-team seat and he was like at a charity event in Charlotte.

You know, they do a lot for the community.

Him and his wife do a lot for the community and a lot of the hospitals in the community over there.

And he basically was like, they're going to have to pry that job out of my dead hands.

Essentially, like he was like, he was on one for sure.

And if you don't know, Olson was, he was going viral a little bit on social media during that game because he was pointing out, well, viral might be strong, but I saw it.

He was pointing out that

an instance where a team should have gone for two after a touchdown to keep it from

falling behind nine points after you give up an ensuing field goal.

And just like the type of strategy that ideally the guy that's getting paid $30 million a year or whatever should be saying.

Anyway.

All right.

Let's take a break.

We're at the midway point.

And by the way, you know, football is not the only sport on the calendar right now.

The NBA season is in full swing, too.

And Underdog has.

Oh.

Police headquarters, Tomanda Director Call.

Officer 1215 over.

Please hold.

Officer 1215 over.

Terry!

Terry!

Slow down, man!

I don't have time to slow down, Lieutenant.

Lisa is dead!

Little birdie told me the lion and his henchmen are at the old warehouse by the river.

I need to know if you're gonna help me with what I need to do.

I heard about Lisa.

I.

I'm sorry, Terry.

Sorries won't help me.

I need your best men on this.

You know, I'd do anything to help you, Terry.

But I can't spare anyone with the queen in town.

The mayor will have my throat if I pull any of my guns.

Oh, of course, Lieutenant, of course.

But what about Lisa's throat?

You know, the throat that exploded in my car?

That's not fair, Terry.

Also, your kids were in the car too, right?

Lisa, get out of the car!

Terry!

Terry!

Snap out of it, man!

Where?

Where am I?

Oh, yeah, look, if you won't help me, Lieutenant, then I'll just have to help myself to some cold, hard justice.

Terry!

No!

Go ahead and protect your precious queen.

I'm used to being a lone wolf anyway.

I'm getting too old for this shit.

Nightly NBA pick'em,

slates, discounts, and promos of plenty.

You could even play against other users with daily tournaments and private drafts where Underdog is giving out over $100,000 every single day.

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audience only.

That police chief, that the lieutenant sounded familiar I

it did strike me as I'm does Terry does Terry care that the kids were in the back seat is he so is it so much about Lisa and like this this need for vengeance for his fallen wife that I don't know it just seems like a bit of a weird guy dark Terry I don't know just the takeaway from this this this week's installment I appreciated the empathy from the lieutenant to ask about that Terry seemed to just gloss right over it very quickly

Yes, Justin.

I disagree.

I feel like bringing up the kids is what triggered the flashback and put him into a headspace where he wasn't even present in the moment anymore.

Agree to disagree.

I think he doesn't give a shit about the kids.

That was

the energy I felt emanating off a man that's obviously consumed by rage and grief.

But I think he just like misses having a girlfriend around.

I don't know.

We all interpret art differently.

Yeah, and that's what's beautiful about it.

I also like that Connor hasn't done any of these Thursday episodes, so I'm sure that kind of came out of left field a little bit.

I listened to the show.

I'm good.

This was excellent.

All of you guys were excellent.

Who do you mean, all you guys?

Well, we're not connected to the project.

Oh, right, right, right.

These are actors.

Is it a project?

Nobody knows exactly what's going on.

Let's move to our next game.

It is the

number four in the NFC, Los Los Angeles Rems traveling to Philadelphia at the link to face the number two seed Eagles who are laying six points in this game.

It is the Sunday, 3 p.m.

Eastern.

Tarico, Collinsworth, Melissa Stark, Tarico with the sun up.

You just don't see it a lot.

This game,

Jordan, is a game that obviously the Eagles, many are expecting the Eagles to win this game.

They've been rolling over many opponents this year.

They're at home.

They got so many things cooking on both sides of the ball.

Or maybe one side of the ball more than the other.

But the Rams, man, that version of the Rams.

And thank you for helping us out, Jordan, on our Monday night recap, talking about how the Rams coaching staff are experts at figuring out what you suck at and then spamming you with something that just exacerbates that issue for the team.

What do you think the Rams are going to do to the Eagles along those lines?

This is a tough one, you know, because they could schematically figure them out, but there's a size issue, you know, there's a size discrepancy between the Eagles offensive line and a Rams defensive line that should get all the praise in the world for how they have developed this year and are truly a connected and

really fun group to cover.

They're all first and second year players.

They have a strong bond together.

They all have this celebration photograph printed out that they signed for each other after the 49ers game a few weeks ago.

That when they evacuated, they all took it with them.

You know, when people are evacuating, you can take very little with you, and they all took it with them.

And I just, of course, I cried over that.

And so

it's like.

She's an empath, folks.

But they are, they're just, they're small.

They're dynamic and aggressive, but they are smaller than this Eagle's front.

And that was the issue last time.

And it was the reason why Saquon Barkley, and also a really smart scheme, but just pure physicality and pure size, moving people out of the way.

And Saquon Barkley's ability and dynamism, but also his size as a running back and his power as a running back, that was what really made such a huge lopsided game

last time they played.

And 3720 and 302 screws or something like that, scrimmage yards.

But I think when the Rams are,

if they make less mistakes, and if we have one of those Matthew Stafford psychopath games that will be tough against this defense because Vic Fangio is fully in his bag, back in his bag after some time, you know, lurking in the wings, studying other people.

Outside of his bag.

And he, like, he will challenge Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay in ways that even Brian Flores has not been able to this year.

And those are the two, the big bullies for Sean McVay, right?

Vic Fangio and Brian Flores.

And so I think that Matthew Stafford, you can say multiple things at the same time about him.

He did not play well.

He and I talked about this.

He did not play well near the end of the season, the back fourth, the back third of the season.

He did not play well at all.

He was sort of relegated into even like a game management role.

The defense was what won them games.

But he's got this like switch, this lever that I saw in 21, that I saw last year when they were playing in Detroit in the wild card, that I saw again the other night in person, where he has, he goes into like this, like, I call it darkly chaotic Matthew Stafford where like he he wants someone to come and like punch a hole in his chest and then he's going to throw for 500 yards on you because of that like he he he wants that he needs it and then he just like totally flips into the psycho and he's still got that in him at his age and so I think that they're going to need that from him to have a shot in this game not because they shouldn't be complimented for what they've achieved this season and I've seen some crazy shit with this team all year especially over the last couple of weeks.

And they should be commended for all of that.

But they are just smaller than the Eagles.

And I think that is a huge factor.

I have a big picture take and a

like in the moment take.

Big picture, I think the Rams kind of have put on like a team building, like clinic.

I mean, both teams, really.

Howie Roseman is like.

dialed in.

It just doesn't make sense what he's been able to do with that roster.

Best one in football for my money.

But the Rams, too, just over the last few years, like to just go all in on the kind of f them picks thing and then kind of have to go clean your books because you're like damn this is we're kind of maxed out here and then clean them lose aaron donald and then your d line gets better you know and like the whole team just is is pretty good too it's like that is just unfair you know i'm viewing it you know i watch the rams every every year a couple times and it's like for them to lose aaron and your d line gets better that's just nuts uh and one first round pick since 2016 it's jared verse too to your point yeah exactly it's with the team building it's like you don't need it's nice when you have a bunch of like high picks and all that.

And then the year they stunk and bottomed out, they didn't have their pick.

I think the Lions had it, right?

So they didn't even get the benefit of that.

You know, the one year they weren't that good and had the high draft pick.

So just like big picture team building masterclass.

And then the short-term thing is like, I think we've talked about on this show, you know, teams that have kind of pushed the limits of like, all right, we're going to just have this nasty ass secondary and it's going to help our front.

Or we're going to have this nasty ass front and we don't really need to have like the super good DBs, you know, because our front's so nasty.

And like, I don't really like either of those, but the Rams are kind of succeeding at the latter.

Like, their D-line is disgustingly good, right?

And their DBs are like not bad, but I call them frisky.

That's what I wrote last night.

It's like they have a nasty pass rusk and like frisky DBs.

Like Kitchens, Curl, Durant.

They're good.

They're just fine DBs, which is kind of what you need as like a baseline when you're all when your pass rush is just disgusting.

And then they got my homie, or my boy.

I don't know him that well, but Akelo Witherspoon, man, he just is a playmaker, man.

The Seahawks just, he's like Seahawks legend over here because they punted on him before they even played a game.

And here he is, just like making all these game-changing plays.

Shout out to his pops.

Lucky that is the homie.

Like, they just got these frisky DBs and this nasty trench play.

And I do like that.

I do like the Eagles in this game.

But like I told you guys, I was kind of viewing these games as like, can I talk myself into the underdog?

And that would be how I would talk myself into the underdog in this game.

They're doing a team-building model that, again, I'm not a super fan of, but if you get it right, you get these dogs up front and just some frisky DBs on the back end, you can make a run like the Rams have.

Just occurred to me, by the way, that Jordan and I are going to be in the same place this weekend, which is very exciting.

I was like, oh, shit.

Yeah, we're both going to be there.

You and James Palmer last week, and now you and J-Rod in a big spot.

She likes that nickname, by the way.

Very excited.

I'm looking at, it was interesting to watch the game last weekend because the Eagles ran the ball like between the guard and like you're they're an A-gap running team.

They ran the ball to inside their guards more than any other team in football this year with Saquon Barkley.

But against the Packers, they pushed everything outside, like pushed a lot of runs outside, a lot of sweep runs outside.

I think they were one of the most outside heavy run teams in that first round of the playoffs.

And it's not like they had anything inside to avoid with Green Bay necessarily.

That interior is not necessarily the strength.

And so I'm wondering if it's just like, this is how I'm interpreting it, because Jalen Hurts is struggling and you need Saquon in more of a home run situation.

Are they trying to get him to the edge more?

Are they trying to get him into open space more regularly?

Are they trying to use him in a way that might represent that home run knockout if you can't necessarily get Hurts there?

Because Hurts, I mean, he vanished for like two and a half quarters of that Packers game.

And I don't think the Rams are necessarily going to allow you to do that and hand you the game like Green Bay did.

So I think that's one thing that I'm looking out for.

And if they continue to try to run outside, you're going to need A.J.

Brown more than ever.

One of the best blocking receivers in the NFL has been a huge part of this Saquon season that no one's really discussed and may or may not be why he's reading, you know, some motivational material on the sidelines.

So Jack performs a winner.

He's a winner.

He wins.

Yeah.

This is also, this is the Saquon Barkley that, what did he run?

Was it 255?

Yeah, 255.

255, yo.

Was that the game where Sirianni and I gave Siriani some credit for once?

It was like, hey, do you want to go break the record?

And he's like, no, let the other guys eat.

That was the Giants game when he could have set his career high again.

Isn't this amazing?

Like, how many different Saquon games, like, we get them confused?

Like, hey, you have a chance to be historic this week.

Do you want to be historic?

And his credit keeps saying no.

Actually, a little Saquon thing here.

And I love Saquon Barkley.

He's a Bronx guy.

Like, he was a good giant.

Now he's a great Eagle.

But how about we do some things, break some records?

We're okay with it.

Like, you don't have to slide down there at the end of the game last week.

Just have your historic touchdown.

Go right in, run for 200 in that game, maybe become the all-time leading rusher in the playoffs this year.

Like, just be a, just be a little bit more about Saquon.

That's my only criticism of his entire season is it's almost to a fault at this point.

He's like, I don't care.

Nothing matters.

Like, bro, you're only on this planet for a finite amount of time.

You're only at this level of greatness for a finite amount of time.

Take advantage of it.

Show the world how beautiful you are as an athlete.

Let's pick this game.

I mean, what an insane rant.

I am going to say,

I know Eagles fans know exactly what I'm doing here.

The Eagles are just a better team.

The Eagles, I like what Jordan's saying.

They're bigger.

They're bullies.

They could beat you on the inside.

They could beat you on the outside.

I mentioned Barkley as this,

you bring in this Hall of Fame player at the peak of his talents that takes the offense to another world.

Zach Bond?

What?

You can do it on the defense too.

In addition to that great draft in your secondary, you have this guy that goes from a special teams player in New Orleans to an all-pro linebacker who is making game-changing plays every week.

The roster is stacked.

There's no way they lose this game.

Jalen Hurts, who looked a little bit like a guy that hadn't played in a few weeks after suffering a concussion, I think he'll be better in this game.

I think it's going to be a low-scoring game because the defenses are both playing at a high level.

But I think the Eagles surge into the NSC title game.

Congratulations to the Eagles, 17-13.

Congratulations, Eagles, and all your fans.

Good luck in Detroit.

Magnanimous.

All right, Jordan, don't forget that I'm an asshole.

Oh, man.

Jordan.

Logic and reason and pure matchup football, whether it's the size discrepancy up front, whether it is what good running teams have done to the Rams front all season, whether it's the threat of a running quarterback and what they have done to the Rams defense all season.

And the fact that Vic Fangio, even if the Rams go 12 personnel like they've been doing a lot, Vic Fangio does not have to change his defense one bit because he's got Dejine Parmesan in the star who can cover these tight ends.

All of those things tell me to pick the Eagles.

But

I've been through a lot of shit this last week, and so has Los Angeles, and so have the Rams.

And I'm going to tell you guys, if the Rams can beat this Eagles team, I think they're going to win the goddamn Super Bowl.

So I am going to pick the Rams.

I'm going to pick the Rams 17 to 14.

Stanford's own Josh Cardi makes the game-winning field goal.

After Matthew Stafford and Cooper Cup set up the game-winning play

to position the kick, a la 2021, that miracle, crazy, stupid run on the road in Tampa for the love of the game route to Cooper Cup that set up the knife twist and put them on a collision course to end Kyle Shanahan's life.

This is the Rams team that I'm feeling right now, and I'm going to pick the Rams.

And shout out to the great community of Los Angeles.

This is an emotional pick.

It's not a logical one.

There's some logic.

Oh, my God.

What a ride.

Indeed, Jordan.

It's an amazing drive.

Yeah, indeed.

Indeed, Jordan.

Hello.

Connor, your pick?

I'm changing it to the ramps.

Let's go.

I'm serious.

Like, why the hell not?

I was in awe last week of watching that game from the press box and seeing all of the difficulties and the trouble that Green Bay went through just to establish a running game against Jalen Carter.

They were walling him off.

They tried Josh Jacobs out of the backfield.

They tried him as a receiver.

They tried all different kinds of of motion concepts.

And it was just so hard to get the ball rolling against them.

So every ounce of my being is telling me to pick the Eagles, but sometimes you have to ride the tailwind of life.

And Jordan, that was beautiful.

I'm picking the Rams 21-17.

I don't give a shit.

Let's go.

Beautiful.

Mike.

I have the same score, actually, as Connor just flipped.

21-17, I like the Eagles.

I think that if there's any team that can neutralize,

speaking of like finding what the other team is weak at, I think what the Eagles can win at is neutralizing what the Rams are best at, which is resting the passer.

I think if there's any team that can do it, it would be the Eagles' front, which I think is the best front in football.

They actually did a pretty good job keeping Jalen clean in that first matchup, too.

I think he was only sacked once.

And I think they had, so they kind of have the recipe, know the formula.

It's not just running the ball with Saquon.

You can schematically kind of keep Jalen clean.

You can trust your tackles, which are two of the best tackles in the league to keep Jalen clean.

So I think keeping him clean enough to make a few plays to Devontae, AJ, Saquon, whoever gets their four-point win, sends them to the title game.

All right.

Love it.

I've loved the Eagles.

I love those picks because I love the Eagles all year.

I want to put that on the record.

Oh, stop.

No, Jordan.

I see what you're doing because you don't want those leaves.

Well, you're not doing it.

You piss them off.

All you do is piss them off.

I like that.

That's a gambling term, too, there, Dan.

She's hedging.

She's hedging a little bit.

You're hedging.

Okay, that one I like.

I'll do that one.

I like that.

Hedging is great.

It is.

By the way, good job by the Eagles.

First of all, great job by the Eagles' PR machine.

Not only did they find a way to dig through that book, a sideline story, then they managed to get a puff piece out on Siriani this week.

He's one of the great men of the 21st century.

The world contains all kinds of people, Dan.

Oh, absolutely, Jordan.

Absolutely.

But like, when I'm reading, like, no one knows how to set culture better than Nick Siriani.

And it's like, what do you mean?

Everyone hated each other by the end of last season.

And like four weeks ago, I see through it all.

Call me a cynic, Rodrigue.

That's all right.

Somewhere in the middle, we balance out.

That's right.

Yeah, that's true.

All right.

Lastly.

I thought I had something else to say, but now it's too late.

So we move on.

The Houston Texans, the number four seed in the AFC, traveling to Arrowhead to face the Chiefs.

All right, congratulations, Connor.

We give them their flowers.

The Texans did incredible work in the wild card round, especially on the defensive side of the ball, sending home the Chargers and making them look bad as they did it.

However, now you get the Chiefs.

And Mahomes, unlike this show, he is Mr.

Perfect.

He is never lost in the divisional round.

He is 6-0

in this week.

And again, when you think about the amount of competition that he has faced through the years in the divisional round, that is quite an achievement to be 6-6.

7 for 7 to me seems like it's going to happen.

They're favored by eight points.

What do you think here, Conman?

This is a perfect opportunity for me to stick to my New Year's resolution and eliminate one place where I would have used designer statistics and instead just make a very crisp and clear point, which is that sometimes better people are worse than worse people.

And Chris Jones against the interior, that offensive line is not a mix.

That's not something I would want to play with.

I think if they try to get get any sort of an outside running game going, the Chiefs and Steve Spagnola are so good against outside zone, and those tackles are so good against outside zone.

The formula of that offense, that Texans' offense, I'm taking the Chiefs all the way.

I don't think this one's going to be close, and I think Chris Jones is going to absolutely eat this game alive.

I should mention Chris Jones has not played since week 15 because of a strained calf muscle, but he's had plenty of time to get right.

Those can be tricky, the calf muscles, especially in cold weather.

So you just hope he's healthy.

But yeah, Jordan, I think Connor's on to something there that Jones is going to eat against the Houston line that has been trouble all year.

And even beyond, you know, the Texans did great work in dispatching the Chargers overall.

I still left there with questions about their offense coming out of that game, even.

Yes, I don't think that Houston is going to score a lot of points in this game, but I think that the game will be close, at least in the first half, because of what Houston's defense is capable of.

And I am going to use some designer statistics because they do come with a valuable point, Connor.

Thank you.

Per next-gen stats, Kamari Lasseter and Derek Stingley have allowed the lowest and second-lowest completion percentages among defenders with at least 50 targets this season, including the playoffs.

And this is important because

Pat Mahomes may have to try to use the middle of the field.

And I think how the Chiefs target the middle of the field, where the Texans are in nickel like more than any other team right now in the playoffs, other than the Eagles,

and deploy their extensive screen game.

The screen game, I think, is the key to actually starting to separate what I think will be a really close game early on because you have to remember, this is a Chiefs team that, yeah, they're going to be fresh and they're rested, but it's been like, what, it'll be 23 days or something since the starters have played football.

And I think the Texans' defense is riding that wave of absolutely being the defining.

entity in that game last week and in that chargers win and i think that andy reed who coaches talk about his like notebooks full of screenplays with like reverential, like they're talking about, you know, Easter Sunday.

And it's, it's like, this is something that you can use to really settle the quarterback.

You can try to target the middle of the field, but really that screen game to then settle your run game and use that as an extension of your outside zone run game, make that.

those corners come down, pull those corners down and make them tackle in space and then start getting the perimeter shots going.

I think that is what is initially going to keep this game from looking like the Chiefs are going to really pull away.

But it'll be a part of the plan to eventually set that separation, quite literally, in the second half.

And that's how I think personally this game will go.

And I think it is important that Houston's defense is coming off of such a victorious

momentum, really.

I think that matters in this game.

Yeah, so viewing it again from the underdog lens, this is the game I have the trouble with the most, actually.

It's really, really bad matchup for the Texans because they're they're mostly because their offense i think jordan's right if they have a chance it'll be their defense and so i was watching some texans games back late last night and i was like man something's off here let me see if i can figure out what it is statistically because i kind of worked through film first and see if the numbers could back it up and i found it so the texans defense is fourth in drop back epa at home On the road, they are 21st.

So I found what was throwing me off.

Like at home, they're like the Legion of Boom.

Like

you go look at the quarterbacks and their completion percentage and their interception numbers.

Everyone just goes to Houston and plays like shit.

Josh Allen, Tua, Jared Goff, just saw Herbert do it.

And then when the Texans have to travel, like their defense is still like okay generally, but their passing defense, which I think is their strength because of those DBs, because of Will Anderson, Denil Hunter, it's just not there.

And it's not even just like it takes a little dip.

That's a huge dip.

And this is not the team you need to take a huge dip against.

You're trying to win the Arrowhead Invitational.

So I agree with Jordan.

I think this would be low scoring for the Texans.

And I actually could see the Chiefs putting up a lot of points because, I mean, it's Mahomes against the defense that's like not super great on the road.

I think that will be the difference maker.

The Texans' strength, like their strength is strength, the strength is thing, I don't think will carry to Arrowhead.

And that's tough.

Good stat there, Mike.

Good stat.

Do you think that's a dome thing?

Do you think that's like, do you think it's just comfort?

Like, what do you think that is?

Because that's interesting.

So

I don't think it's a weather thing.

I think based on the few games I watched, I mostly watched the games that they were like kicking ass, like the golf game, the kick to his ass,

obviously the playoff game, and then watch some of their road games.

I really think just D'Amico is just really gets into like a different play caller bag at home.

I don't know.

Maybe he just like does all his best game planning in his office on like Saturday nights or something.

I don't know.

Because they just seem to have a better job confusing the quarterbacks.

That's what they really did in these games where these guys are throwing a lot of picks.

Like Josh Allen played really bad in that game.

I think it was like 9 of 30.

in the game.

I went back and watched that.

He was awful.

And golf was, too, is easily Golf's worth game.

They could threw like five picks or something.

So I think D'Amico is better.

There's probably some personnel stuff, too.

I'd have to do a real deep dive, but just like watching it late last night and crunching some numbers, I was like, yeah, I think D'Amico just gets in his play caller Fanzio bag a lot better at home.

Maybe he can do that here, but

it hasn't happened so far in the regular season.

One of the things that helps with the defenses like that when they are in a friendly environment is you can capitalize off of your studies of tendencies of how opponents are going to silent count.

And so when you have your home crowd screaming their heads off at the opposing offense and you have studied what that looks like and D'Amico is a coach that has stereotyped has done this typically for years because that's what Kyle Shanahan has demanded of his defensive coordinators and even the assistant coaches is to study those tiny details and those cadences and some of those things and really key in and try to mix them up even more and almost like reverse them upon you.

And I think that I don't, that's just my opinion.

That might have something to do with it as well.

As you could befuddle the quarterback a little bit more if you can manipulate or use their own silent count against them a little bit.

Could be cheating like the Patriots and during Belichick, too.

Just kidding.

Connor just says some crazy shit.

Somebody got to say it.

And he said it.

And now it's out there in the world.

Oh, Connor just says crazy stuff.

All right, let's pick this game.

The pathway.

The pathway to a Houston shocking the world scenario is Daniil Hunter and Will Anderson go off like they did last week.

They both had a 25% plus pressure rate on poor Justin Herbert.

Danico Autry also got after it in that game.

It was just a masterclass in getting after a QB.

Can they do that against Mahomes?

Mahomes' offensive line is not, you know, an impenetrable fort.

So can you do that?

Can Derek Stingley, your boy, Mike Dugar, can Sting make a game-changing play?

They're going to have to steal points here, either on the defensive side of the ball or in special teams.

That said, I think what makes Kansas City, Kansas City is they tend to avoid those catastrophic eras, especially in January.

And for that reason, I don't think it's going to be necessarily exciting.

It's going to be the game that kind of is the big take-care of business game.

26-13, I got the Chiefs.

Yeah,

I was texting the homie DJ Ben to me, covers the Texans for ESPN, and I actually told him, I was like, yo, if they're going to win, it probably, I'm reading our text now, I was like, they're going to need a generational day on defense or special teams.

I do think that is going to be the key.

There's one matchup in particular.

I can't remember number 74's name for the Chiefs.

The guy who's like false starts every play.

They're right tackle.

But I think him versus Danil Hunter, like if Hunter just goes nuts on him, because sometimes we see the game as that simple.

If like you're just right tackle sucks today, your offense is cooked.

Like if they have a day like that where 55 is just whipping 74's ass, maybe they got a shot.

Yes, I knew something with a Jay.

Yeah, Jay Taylor.

Yeah, Jawan Taylor.

Yeah.

If he just stinks against the new hunter, maybe that's, you know, strip sack, whatever, bad ball, pick six, something, you know, something flukey.

I think that would be the key.

But if that doesn't happen, I don't think it will.

I like the Chiefs 20 to 13.

I love Sting.

Even when I got my prediction right, too?

Well, no, you just got you didn't get the full Sting drop there.

You didn't get the Sting penalty drop.

You're okay.

That's fair.

Not yet, anyway.

Connor?

I think about

like narrative-busting games that annoy me as someone who has to be in the locker room and just listen to all the players say, No one in the media believed in us that we could do X.

And so I think that the Chiefs' offense is just going to come out like lighted on fire and score like 38 points.

And like, all the receivers are going to be awesome, and Travis Kelsey is going to have 100 yards, and everybody's just going to be like, Oh, you guys didn't talk about the way that we were so awesome on offense all year.

And then, well, we're trying to do our jobs in the locker room.

And so, uh, that's uh, that's what I predict.

It's going to be like 38, 21 Chiefs.

Okay.

And Jordan, yeah, the Travis Kelsey Rising from the Dead come January again.

I could see it happening because it happened last year, just when we were writing him off as an impact talent.

But he looked super slow this year, like next level slow.

I don't know if we're going to get it this year, but that'll be something to watch in the playoffs, too.

Sub-prediction to that is.

It gets ignited by Mahomes and Worthy finally hitting one of those design deep shots.

And then it just, everything goes bonkers from there.

I'm glad you brought up the post-game, Connor, because sometimes I worry about you.

I think that there's not, I think that there's, you haven't let go.

That's the first time a woman has said that to Connor, by the way.

I think that you still haven't let go when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers GM Jason

liked, approached you at the Combine and made you a part of the content that they were secretly filming, and secretly filming you.

And so you are still fixated uh internally on that trauma and i i can understand that like this is a safe place but i am a bit concerned about you um i'm gonna no i was just one one point on that like now that he's got the chrysler town and country 2016 model hold on connor is in general a much more like even killed individual but don't confuse that with it not still the fire not still being within connor sometimes that town and country uh you'll see fire coming out of the windows because it's still within him.

And don't mess with him.

Well, that's part of the reason why I am

settling scores.

I think that's part of the town and country, that's another reason why I am worried because sometimes when people have a deep inner trauma that they're working through, they try to mask it with worldly possessions and things that make other people think that they're actually doing fine.

Just on my radar.

Just on my radar.

I did have a really good insight about that that the other day, though, because I think it was like I'd vaguely brought up when we had Andrew Marshan on.

I was like complaining about something.

And I was like, you know, that just reminds me of like being talked down to in high school.

And then Andrew was like, sorry about whatever happened to you in high school.

And, you know, I was thinking about like all the times that I've gotten mad, specifically on this show, about players saying that or GMs or anybody saying that I'm wrong about something.

And I will say, like, I was on a run the other day and it hit me in like a very cosmic moment that I was like, it all did go back to like this one thing, like in high school.

And I was like, and that's where my like crippling Napoleon syndrome developed from.

So I was like, you know, it's good.

It's good that I get a chance to work this out in front of everybody.

Excavating things.

I'm really proud of you, and we did some really good work today.

We did.

We did.

This was a lot cheaper than regular therapy.

All right.

Let's.

So I'm going to pick the Chiefs.

You got the Chiefs.

I got the Chiefs.

I'm going to go 27-10, Chiefs.

All right.

Let's take a break and then we'll do some fearless predictions.

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All right, we are back.

All right, before we do our fearless predictions, Money Mike, do we have something for the people?

Do we have a Greg Olson three-legged parlay

to put braces on little Susie in a big spot this spring?

What's your name?

G-Reg.

What you do?

Drop my drawers and let her see my third leg.

Chilling on the seven flow, I gotta let these chickens know.

We Greg is in the house and I finna make these hoes.

Come on, fellas, let's get weird.

Stick

following after Nathan's got a second.

All right, all right.

Oh, man.

What

a record.

What a record.

Yeah, I do have.

What a record.

Yeah, what a record.

Wow.

Take that, LeAngelo ball.

I will, I will, my G-Reg, three-leg parlay.

As you guys can tell, I am a big fan of the dogs covering this week.

I think all my dogs, I think all the dogs covered in my predictions.

Outside of that, that Bills game is the toss-up.

Like,

it's whatever.

So let's take the, I'm going to go by the HTC

Google Doc spreads here.

I like Houston plus eight and a half, the Commanders plus nine and a half, and the fighting Jrods plus six and a half.

That's catching on nationally as the title.

It is.

It is.

People are saying.

Yes.

Justin.

I believe the stat is something like this century, teams that are favored by more than seven points are 27 and two straight straight up, something like that.

And the only two losses were Baltimore to Tennessee in the 2019 game and Kansas City to Tennessee in the Mariota caught his own touchdown pass game.

So that was not a Titans thing.

But

Mike, picking both teams to cover this spread is a, it's an unusual, I mean, that doesn't mean they're going to win outright, but it's, that is a huge, like this being such a big spread, these two games, has been an indicator of that team just wins almost every time.

Yeah, very true.

I think these are big spreads, though, man.

These other teams, the dogs aren't like shitty squads, and these kind of spreads kind of reflect that.

Nine and a half for the commanders,

that is a

team that's pretty good, you know.

So, all right, I'll go the other way, Mike.

Um,

and I won't get this right, but I'm gonna go with all four of the home teams

win,

and three of the four cover the spreads in our dock.

So that means Buffalo just needs to win.

They're minus one or their plus one.

Detroit's got to win by 10.

Philly's got to win by seven.

Chiefs got to win by nine.

All right.

I don't feel great about it.

About to say, yeah, hearing that out loud, that's playoff games are usually pretty close, man.

Usually.

Very rarely, I feel like do we really get full-on beat-em-downs.

I'd have to go check the math on that.

But But I feel like these are some relatively evenly matched teams, and weird shit happens in the playoffs, particularly in cold weather.

Okay, so three of the four for me.

Connor, how about you?

My fearless prediction?

Yes.

Let's go.

And you are picking for Mark.

And of course, just a reminder that these picks are worth double this week.

Okay.

My fearless prediction, let me just pull it up so I can make sure that I read it exactly as I sent it to Graver.

So there's no...

An unbelievably stupid call benefits the Texans in the Chiefs game, which causes all the Chiefs fans to be like, it happens to us too, see?

But then it ends up not mattering because the Texans end up getting called for way more penalties than the Chiefs do over the course of the game.

Is that too complicated?

No, so the Texans are going to finish with more penalties.

Yeah, there we go.

But there's going to be one very loud, social media-worthy, missed call or

ridiculous call that goes against the Chiefs and that causes their fan base to go to martyrdom, full martyrdom.

And you know why I think that is fearless?

Is that typically what gets people upset is that the Chiefs always get all the calls, it feels like.

So you're saying in this case, it goes the other direction, and Chiefs fans don't like getting some of their own medicine.

Ooh, spicy.

This seems like a

good opportunity for Justin to fire up and then redirect his Tennessee Titans bot farm at this cause to get a win for Mark.

True.

Mike, did you give your fearless prediction or was that was just your three leg?

Bot.

That was the three leg.

It can double as, but I also have a separate fearless prediction.

Yeah, let's do that as well.

All right.

So my fearless prediction is it goes back to the Commanders Lions game.

I think that game will feature at least nine fourth-down conversion attempts.

This includes any special teams,

fake field goal, fake punk.

I love that.

I think this is going to be the fourth down game because it's going to have to be.

I feel like both teams are going to go into it with that mindset.

You said nine?

Yeah, that was a tried to figure out whether that was the season high.

It wasn't.

A Jags game had 10 for some reason.

And there's been some other games.

That was weird.

The Jags went for it eight times in the game, I think against the Bills.

I want to say that game featured 10 fourth-down tries between the two teams.

So weird.

And there were some games that had seven.

These are just unbelievable.

I couldn't believe my number crunching last night.

I was like, are you kidding me?

But anyway, so it wouldn't be the season high because for some reason that game happened.

I think this would be the second highest.

I think nine would be.

I think there were seven in the Vikings Lions in week 18.

So it's a very high number and it requires two aggressive teams with everything on the line.

So I think that's what's going to happen.

We get at least nine, including special teams fakes.

All right.

Jordan, not Jay Ryan.

Mine is nowhere near as artistic.

Always, it's a masterpiece every time with money, Mike.

Yeah, and I tried to keep mine as simple and non-indecipherable as possible

because I know I've struggled with that at times this year.

Just a couple times.

I just think a tight end will score a touchdown in every single game.

It doesn't matter which team.

I think a tight end will score a touchdown in every single one of these games.

Four for four for the tight ends.

Very good.

Good.

That'd be great.

Thanks, Mike.

It means a lot.

That's good.

I've been wanting that all year from Mike, and it just hasn't come.

Oh, good one.

Yeah, how you feel?

I feel so good right now.

Mike, when I do my Fearless Bricks, Mike's like, oh,

that's an interesting one.

Gosh.

Hello.

He's like, dad has a good personality, you know?

Justin.

My prediction is going to sound a lot less cool and grave toss now that Jordan's talked about the Rams in an awesome way, but I'm going to do it anyway.

Saquon Barkley's 150 or more total yards from scrimmage go in vain as the Rams upset the Eagles.

Ooh, Daddy!

Daddy likes mommy.

So you, wait a second.

So you say not only are the Rams going to win, you also have a specific stat line affixed to Saquon.

That is fearless, my friend.

Good job by you.

Do we have the standings going into the final three weeks of the competition?

Sure.

Here we go.

Oh, good.

This won't matter.

Okay.

Yeah, no, no.

Well, it does because there is, you don't want to finish in the basement, right?

Although you do get the first overall pick next year.

Michael Sean Dugar is

up to 8-10.

Look at Mike.

8-10 on the year.

Jordan, 7-11.

Gravedigger, 7-11.

And then Sestog and the old Zuzzer, both 3-15.

Maron.

So both Jordan and Justin have a chance to win this thing, but Mike is in the driver's seat with three weeks to go.

And there's a trophy.

Not only is there a trophy, everybody, Justin and I have done some conversations about it.

Justin's reached out to some manufacturers in the region.

It's going to be nice.

It's going to be nice.

You want this trophy in your background.

It's going to be late, but it's going to be nice.

Oh, yeah.

It's going to be super late.

Super

untimely for just paying off off this segment for all season.

But at the same time, it won't be completely forgotten about.

Or maybe it will.

These are all things.

You never know.

All right.

Good stuff.

Can't wait.

Divisional round playoffs.

A special thank you to Connor Orr, who literally on 15 minutes' notice stepped in and knocked one out of the park.

So thank you, Conman, as always.

This was a thrill.

I've been a huge fan of you guys and this show all year.

It's been wonderful.

It's been great to see it.

I love

real Lou Gehrig Wally Pips situation.

Perhaps we could kind of feed that into Mark's brain.

Mike and Jordan, thank you.

As always, you guys are the best.

And obviously, well, Mike's got the coverage of the Seahawks on lock, even with their season over and everything coming up for them.

But Jordan, she's covering the Mighty Rams right now.

So make sure you check out the athletic for both our fine young reporters and their incredible work they do.

And we'll see you.

Bye.

Yeah.

Yeah, we'll see you Sunday to recap the games that we just previewed.

Until then, as Mark said, bye.

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