Battle of the bribes in the Pacific

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The Prime Minister has now added his voice to growing calls for Liberal Senator Jacinta Napajimpa Price to apologise for her remarks about Indian immigrants.

But the Senator has doubled down, instead urging the opposition leader Susan Lee to force her colleague Alex Hawke, who raised the issue with Jacinta Price, to apologise for his comments.

So what does this very ugly public affair mean for Susan Lee's authority over a deeply divided party room?

And could it spell trouble for her leadership?

Welcome to Politics Now.

Hi, I'm Patricia Carvellis.

And I'm Raph Epstein, host of Melbourne Mornings on ABC Radio Melbourne.

And Raph, the Liberal Party implosion shows no signs of slowing.

Gathering pace, my friend.

I discussed it with Jacob and the broader ramifications of it all.

We did a bit of a deep dive yesterday, but there are new developments.

Senator Jacinta Nabajipa Price is coming under increased pressure.

The Prime Minister has weighed in.

He was asked.

Look, not entirely surprising, I don't think that the Prime Minister

would say that.

But the issue for Jacinta Nubajipa Price now is that her own colleagues are saying it in greater numbers, including

last count, it was also, I think it was Bridget McKenzie.

Yep, she should apologise.

Julian Lisa, who's also on the front bench, not only says she should apologise, but has apologised himself on behalf of her because she's not doing the apologising.

Where's this going?

Where it is going is to complete electoral irrelevance.

I heard you and Jacob talking about this yesterday.

When the Prime Minister says she should apologise, that is just his way of saying, look over there, they're a complete basket case.

When her colleagues say that she should apologise, it becomes a proxy war for the future of the party.

I do see real parallels, if I can be very parochial.

There was an issue in Victoria with the Victorian Liberal Party.

There's a woman on the right of the party, Maury Deaning, her issue was trans issues.

I see a real parallel.

This is an issue that seems deeply important to Jacinta Price.

It seems to be foundational to Liberal Party values and how she wants to talk to voters.

It is an issue that most people, it's irrelevant to them.

Not that migration infrastructure isn't irrelevant, but the thing she raised with you last week, completely irrelevant.

You raise it, you cause trouble, and it just becomes this proxy war for the future direction of the party.

So whether or not she says sorry, I'm not sure actually matters anymore.

It's just a way for liberals to beat each other on the head.

And it just becomes another conversation where they're not talking about the government.

That's right.

What I think is interesting is the proxy war for the future of a party, because that's the key bit here.

I mean, not to say that there's not other key bits.

The fact that the Indian community is so angry and is making it clear that they're so angry and do want her to apologise and think that she should.

And that's important.

That is important.

But at the same time, Raf, we have historical precedents for why this matters.

Now, I know you've been doing a bit of a deep dive on...

The history of the Liberal Party with these issues of race and how much it dogged them when John Howard got this wrong.

Talk me through it.

So the other thing to say, by the way, Australian politics, both sides of politics have had really bad issues with migration for decades, for more than 100 years.

But have a listen to John Howard in 1988.

They have, they're in opposition.

They have a policy called One Australia, which is, guess what?

Their vision is for one nation and one future.

So this is 1988, so you're talking at least eight years before Pauline Hanson pops up.

John Howard goes on radio and I looked it up, actually, he does two interviews, one with John Laws and one with PM on ABC radio and he says basically the same thing and see if there's any echoes with what Jacinda Price said to you it would this is on he's asked about Asian immigration he says it would be in our immediate term interest and it would support social cohesion if it were slowed down a little so the capacity of the community to absorb it was greater I mean it is almost word for word what Jacinda Price said to you I don't have anything against these people it's about whether or not we can absorb them into the country it took John Howard years to live that down.

It goes to the thing you were saying with Jacob yesterday about talking about these issues with nuance takes real skill, real practice, real understanding.

That completely blew up in John Howard's face.

Of course, there's other issues going on, but at the time it was also, he got piled on by other people in his party, exactly what is happening now.

So they have a real checkered history with this.

And the fact that John Howard went through that experience and it was so difficult for him, that gives you one or one major reason why the Liberals are so panicky and so upset about this.

And I'm sure you've had the same thing said to you.

I don't know if people remember during the last federal election campaign when Jane Hume basically said something about Chinese spies.

It doesn't actually matter what she meant to say.

She talked about Chinese spies.

It went viral on Chinese social media here in Australia.

And I think every liberal I've spoken to except one has said, this is like the Chinese spies incident.

So it goes directly to the way they get along, what they think about the future of the direction of the party, and it goes directly to their history.

And it's all a huge gift for the federal government.

Oh, it's the biggest gift ever.

You know what?

It's deeper than just about

the particular immigrant group that's right now being debated in many ways, the Indian Australian community.

It's also about just generally the way they talk about immigration full stop more broadly, because Jacinda Namajibra Pras wants to really lean in on this word, which is being used, and Jacob mentioned this, like mass immigration, right?

and I really really tried to push Alex Hawke who was the one that allegedly according to her office berated him he said she said you should say sorry I should say sorry no you should say sorry so it's just like now circular right about this now a bit bit of info about him he does represent a community that has high numbers of Indian Australians so he's advocating for his community you know you he should do that like that's what an MP should do

but he's also the numbers man for Susan Lee so that's the sort of factional part, right?

So different parts of the Liberal Party they come from, and there's a big fight over that.

So there's two elements.

But back to what he said, I really tried to push him on the word mass immigration.

You know, do you think we have a problem with mass immigration?

Obviously, he doesn't, he's not, he thinks it's wrong, the Indian comment, but the broader thing.

And no, he doesn't.

You know, he said it did get too high after COVID.

I think a lot of people would agree with that, actually.

I think the government agrees with that.

Like, I think the government concedes that it spiked too high.

They justify it, but that's factual.

It got pretty high.

But the numbers we're at now, and in fact, he said, well, it's not mass immigration.

So the debate is broader.

Like, it's actually even in substance a disagreement on their side about that.

Oh, yeah, they definitely disagree on.

on how to deal with it, who to talk about it with, whether or not it has an impact.

In fact, I had someone say to me who was a liberal, and this is true, it just fluctuates around 1% of the population.

So yes, the numbers went up after COVID and yes, the numbers were low during COVID, but it's still just, it's around the population increases by about 1% if you include birth plus permanent migration.

That's actually not at the heart of or the seat of our problems.

And I just wanted to add one thing.

So I think it's really interesting and important to focus on mass immigration.

One thing that I think was less focused on that I think is really important in terms of who are they talking to.

The idea that Indians vote left at at the moment, okay, you've got a poll, you say a lot of people in the Indian Australian community vote for the RP, okay, but then to say that the government is bringing them in for that express purpose, I think that actually erodes faith in the idea of the government.

There is no evidence whatsoever, but it really talks to that sort of language that says, you know what, there's all these secretive, nefarious levers being pulled by governments and they don't want to tell you about it.

And I think

it is way too close to that language.

And we know that

that is sitting there beneath our politics in social media.

So I guess that's just more proof that politicians have a gazillion audiences all at once.

But it's definitely about who are our people, who are we talking to, which way are we going.

Now, politics and timing is everything, right?

And I want to segue here to some things we're seeing coming out of Victoria, which I think are really interesting and have national implications.

So we're seeing at the moment the Victorian Premier, Jacinda Allen, facing mounting pressure over the time it took for her to stand up following that horrific stabbing death of two young boys in Melbourne on the weekend.

Raph, just the back story here.

Melbourne does have a problem, a significant problem in my view, with gang youth violence.

I feel really, you know, the personal is political.

I grew up in an area where there was a lot of gang youth violence and it was very frightening in the 90s for me.

I think it's actually really serious serious when young people feel scared to participate and I feel this really viscerally at the moment.

This has, I believe, this is politics, federal podcast as well, actual implications for the federal government too.

This crime issue ends up kind of hurting them as well.

And today the Prime Minister was actually asked about it when he went on Radio National and he was asked about it and he said all the right things.

But what's going on here and why aren't they grappling with this?

Because this has many dimensions.

Oh, there's lots to there.

But first thing to point out, it's a 12-year-old boy.

It's a 12-year-old boy from our community that is one of our newest arrivals.

He's got South Sudanese background.

And this goes directly to everything we're talking about when it comes to immigration.

It's not the fastest-growing part of Melbourne, not the fastest-growing part of Victoria.

It's the fastest-growing part of the country, these newest Western suburbs in Melbourne.

He's 12.

We think that's the youngest kid to die from knife violence in Victoria.

What is really quite astounding when it comes to timing, this happens on earlier on Saturday evening.

Both the Victoria Police and the Victorian opposition, the Liberal leader Brad Batten, they put out a statement on Saturday night to address it.

I think a lot of people in Melbourne share your concerns.

If we've got time, I've got interesting things to say about discussion.

I'll take time because I think it matters.

The interesting thing is that Jacinta Allen, the Premier, she does not respond with a statement.

She does not respond with social media.

A minister goes out on the Sunday, but you've got a senior police officer investigating the crime, saying publicly to the media that the penalties aren't enough for the offenders.

They don't know who the offenders are yet.

Still, the Premier says nothing.

And then the Premier only puts out a statement on the Monday, almost 48 hours afterwards.

And she only puts out a statement.

She only actually spoke about it today, Tuesday morning.

So that's two and a half days after.

And I think it is

the other side of the coin.

Jacinda Price leaned in too hard.

The Victorian Premier, Jacinta Allen, these are all adjacent issues for a lot of people.

If you're a policy expert, sure, crime in Melbourne is different to immigration policy run from Canberra.

If you live in the big suburbs, the expanding suburbs of Melbourne Sydney, it's all the same stuff.

And on this one, you've got Jacinta Allen leaning away from, looking like she is running away from, whatever she is doing, this conversation is going.

Have a look at the Facebook pages in the big suburbs of our major cities.

They're talking about the things Jacinda Price is talking about.

They're talking about things like knife crime.

It's all going on at once.

And the Labor Premier has lent away.

Her line is she was busy actually engaging with and talking to those communities.

That's fine.

That's a choice.

But the news cycle, breaking news, is 24-7.

Social media is going to take off anyway.

It doesn't matter what you and I say.

It actually doesn't in some ways matter sometimes what a politician says, but they can choose to dip their toe in that water.

They can choose to try and, to mangle my metaphors, you know, manage the direction of that conversation.

And the Victorian Premier chose not to.

Yeah, that's right.

And the fact that the Prime Minister was asked is because, and I do think we must say this, I mean, I feel it really strongly.

So these are two African-Australian kids, right?

I don't know if a 12-year-old

Anglo-Australian kid was...

I'm sorry, but I imagine that would be something that we would...

When a synagogue got burnt, politicians come out like that.

so that's just one small incident in Melbourne the politicians I guess were used to that they knew how to respond to that they came out straight away it's just they are real third rail issues you know that American expression you feel like politicians and the media feel like if they touch them it can just blow back on them and sort of and blow them up but this this feel it feels to me like we have politicians blundering around.

We should be really grateful in Australia.

These are not issues that are confined to Australia.

So in some ways, they're a lot smaller in Australia than a lot of other places.

But you do feel like there's some real ineptitude with our politicians in dealing with some really, really difficult problems.

Yeah, I think that's right.

Look, Ralph, I want to segue away from that

because watching brief on that, I think, as I say, I think it's really, yeah, really very troubling.

But I want to take you to...

You know, the Prime Minister doing something really significant, but all of the noise being, of course, in the Liberal Party.

But we're going to focus just briefly on the Prime Minister's work, the Pacific Blitz, if you want to call it that.

He's heading to the Solomon Islands via Vanuatu to rub shoulders with world leaders at the Pacific Islands Forum.

This is very important for our region and this government, to be fair to them, since being elected in 2022, has been focused on rebuilding relationships with the Pacific after accusing the Morrison government of kind of letting that

fall apart.

Now, before he could even jump on a plane, the PM faced a bit of a diplomatic blow-up.

He's admitted on Radio National this morning that the expected landmark security pact that we're expecting with Vanuatu, it's not going to be signed.

Today is pretty explicit about that.

Obviously, they have not done, it's not clear.

You know, they know that when it's all done, dusted, you're going to sign the deal.

There's no deal to sign yet.

Why is this so hard?

The first thing to say is that I don't want to reduce everything in the Pacific to China, but it's often always

about China.

But Vanuatu, small place, 300,000 people.

It's one of those archipelago nations, you know, spreads spreads out 1,000 kilometres.

I think it's 80 islands, something like that.

Really, so tiny landmass, not much of a population.

How do we deal with them?

Everyone will probably remember in the 22 campaign how the Solomon Islands signed a deal with China and there was this, oh, shock, horror, the Morrison government have neglected things.

What also happened in 2022?

There was an agreement that was going to be signed by Vanuatu.

It didn't happen because people in Vanuatu were unhappy with the language.

At the time, Australia was going to be Vanuatu's major Australian security partner.

Now, this, the lack of the signing of the deal that the PM announced today when he was talking on Radio National with Sally Sarah, this is kind of worse.

Because last month, there was Richard Miles, Penny Wong, and Pat Conroy in the Pacific, you know, the nice colourful Pacific shirts.

I think Pat Conroy called it transformational.

Richard Miles, I tried to count in the transcript.

I think he used the word significant three times.

They'd initialed it.

They'd announced it.

It's going to get signed.

It's not going to get signed.

So as best we can tell, it may not even be signed this week.

Again, it is about China.

To reduce it to the really transactional, there's a great story about the Pacific Islands Forum that the PM is going to in the Solomon Islands.

China gave the Solomons 30 vehicles for everyone to drive around in, for all the leaders to drive around in.

It is very clear that Australia has gone, what?

We are not driving around in vehicles donated from China.

A, they're donated by China.

B, what if they're bugged by Chinese intelligence services?

So Australia has given the Solomon Islands 60 vehicles.

So even though we try not to reduce that relationship to just a being about China, it is always just about China.

When the PM's asked about it, he always has to say, oh, no, no, they're a sovereign nation.

Well, I don't dictate what they do.

But it's just this incredibly tortuous dance.

And always the kicker is...

People from Pacific Island nations, they want visa-free travel to Australia.

They want to basically be considered the way New Zealanders are.

There are some people with a New Zealand passport who live in a nation like the Cook Islands.

They get visa-free travel.

People from Anuatu, people from the Solomon Islands, they are never going going to get visa-free travel.

It is the Trump card that always gets pulled out.

Oh, we're not getting visa-free travel.

And I think a lot of Australian politicians, they see that Trump card pulled out.

And actually, that is someone in a place like Vanuatu or the Solomon saying, you know what?

We've got to keep sweep with China.

So it's just this.

terrible delegate dance.

And so not signing something with Vanuatu ever does.

And all of that is rather awkward, right, for the Prime Minister, but he's kind of managing it pretty well because there's not so much pressure on him.

That goes to that other issue.

I just don't think it's blowing up like as it probably would have or should have or something.

We've got an opposition that's not being a very good opposition, let's be honest.

But I think you can see the leverage, the incredible flexing of muscle for Pacific nations like Vanuatu.

Well is it muscle?

It's as much muscle as they've got, which is this competitive...

Can I we'll tell you how the sausage is made.

Raph and I just got momentarily distracted, didn't we?

Because Susan Lee's doing a press conference somewhere in regional New South Wales.

And I'm guessing she's saying something very profound, but she will be peppered with questions about apologies and how she manages that.

Excuse me, dear opposition leader.

Can you please tell me how you can stop a seismic break happening in your party while talking about race and migration in Australia?

It seems like an easy job.

Why haven't you done it better?

Yeah, but I love what I'm seeing is, I'm going to say it, shoddy camera work on Susan Lee.

There's close-ups and then they're pulling out and then they're going back in.

I love a live press conference.

Anyway, yeah, this is all, what I mean by flexing their muscle is they've got this strategic competition.

They do, but we...

That they're trying, that's why they won't sign with us, that they're leveraging and trying to get the best out of what is a difficult situation for poor nations, aren't they?

We treat them like client states.

And so do China.

Yeah, and it's terrible.

So the Nauru deal is a classic, right?

So let's say the Nauru deal signed last week.

Let's say they get 70 million a year.

That's worth a quarter of their entire economy.

so we're distorting their economy there isn't a free press in nuru like there is in australia there isn't respect for human rights like there is in australia what i would love our nations to be doing is pushing for things like human rights and a free press in the pacific island nations it becomes a series of competing bribes between australia and china for pacific island nations it does nothing for their

actual development as democracies.

I don't think it does.

No, no, I don't mean to have suggested it was, but you can see how

they are trying to make a bad situation, you know, they're just trying to make a bad situation better.

Yeah, yeah.

Yeah, maybe they are.

It's just, it becomes an ugly strategic fight.

And it means, like a lot of things in politics, the fight means we neglect the really important, substantial things like...

It'd be great if nations like that had industries other than tourism.

It'd be great if nations like that could rely on something other than people coming to Australia to earn money and send money back there.

But it becomes in the, you know, on the surface, it's all happy Pacific family, decisions made in the Pacific.

And actually it's this really underhand tug of war between Australia and China over these tiny nations that don't seem to have their own fate in their own hands.

That is true.

Can I say he's also going on his way, of course, to the Pacific Islands Forum, where the Pacific Island nations, lots of them, will be putting pressure on Australia for an ambitious emissions reduction target.

Oh, you mean, sorry, is that climate change, Patricia?

And the nations that might most be affected by climate change?

Currently affected.

They don't even have to wait.

This isn't even a like future us problem.

This is a current them problem, right?

It's already happening in real time for them.

Really important discussion.

Yeah, and there will be pressure on Australia to

step up.

And that will be, I think that works into the optics of the Prime Minister as he kind of steps into this month is 2035 target month.

You've dubbed it 2035 target month.

I have, because I will be on a beautiful Greek island.

It's hotter than you would be probably because of climate change.

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Probably very much.

And I will have more sunscreen in my luggage as a result.

I always take Australian sunscreen with me.

I don't trust anyone else.

Conversation.

Do you burn as much in Europe as you do in Australia?

Conversation for another.

Well, yeah, that's.

So it is going to be 2035 climate month, I called it.

He will have to announce where we're going.

It will be a range.

I think it's almost certain now that they've kind of confirmed that they're looking at a range.

It's a season side of the range.

Well, they'll create this kind of, you know, what's achievable, blah, blah, blah.

But there will be pressure on them to, and at the same time.

So is blah, blah, blah going to be in the announcement.

Blah, blah, blah is the bit that you don't have to listen to, that we try and kind of don't bore you with.

But Susan Lee is right now railing against kind of the

renewable transformation,

the social license for renewables, just...

leaning into the concerns of her party around that in regional Australia.

But at the same time, you know, Australia is going to have to step up.

How the Liberals deal with that will be interesting.

So watch that space.

Now, Raph, you know how much I love talking to you.

In fact, I won't sort of see you now for another little bit because I'm off.

I'm going to miss you.

You know, I have one request.

No one sends real postcards anymore.

Oh, my partner does.

You've chosen wisely.

Have I?

And well.

I find it really annoying.

Every holiday we do, she makes us go.

Listen.

I am so impressed.

No, no, it's annoying.

It's true.

To find the postcards.

Then she makes the girls write the postcards.

Then it's half a day of our trip.

Sounds like the perfect parent to me.

And I'm like, why don't we just send a text message?

She's like, oh, don't you get it?

Postcards.

She's right.

I'm with her.

Sometimes the postcard arrives after we get back.

Set yourself a challenge, PK.

That doesn't matter.

You've got to send one postcard from Greece.

to one ABC building anywhere in the country.

You can send that postcard to anyone at any ABC building.

That's your challenge.

I don't know if anyone wants it.

I don't think anyone else wants it.

Send me a postcard.

I will.

Well, I'm going to be forced to the post office to do this, so I will write you a postcard.

That's it for politics now.

Be back in your feed tomorrow with David Spears.

We'll talk about the Pacific Islands forum and see what else has come out there.

And of course, we'll take your questions on Thursday on the party room.

See you, Raph.

Bye.