Did the PM get his ideal COP outcome?

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Speaker 5 Government is always formed in the sensible centre, but our Liberal Party reflects a range of views.

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Speaker 2 Hello and welcome to the party room. I'm Patricia Carvelis and I'm joining you from Rangerie Country in Melbourne.

Speaker 4 And I'm Frank Kelly on the Gaddigal Land of the Orination here in Sydney and I'm back. Feels so good to be sitting here talking to you again PK.

Speaker 1 I missed you.

Speaker 2 Did you miss me? Because I was wondering I was like is she missing me or is she living her best life? Well not quite your best life.

Speaker 4 Well not quite my best life. I have my knee chopped up but apart from that I have been tuning in.
I've got to say, a lot happened while I've been away. Moments of it were hard.

Speaker 4 Like I just wanted to get up off the couch or where I was and get in there. And it's still going on.
You know, you had the whole split within the libs on net zero. You've talked a lot about that.

Speaker 4 Where's it all heading? PK, this is what we call the killing season in politics. Leaders tend to get, if they're going to get knocked off, they tend to get knocked off at this end of the year.

Speaker 4 So far, no move against Susan Lee, and you and Mel have talked about that over the last couple of weeks. But state liberals are going down like nine pins.
Is it 10 pins?

Speaker 4 Anyway, pins, filling that void. So we're going to take a look at what's going on with the Liberal Party brand across the nation because there is a fair bit of movement and

Speaker 4 they seem to be taking all the headlines.

Speaker 2 Well, Fran, Mel's done such a terrific job, as you know, but we have actually missed you. And I will let you in on a secret.

Speaker 2 Like, I often walk around the streets of Melbourne, as everyone knows, because I love a walk, love getting my steps up.

Speaker 2 Not afraid to look at the statistics at the end of the day either because I'm mental and I often get stopped and people say, hey, loving the pod, really nice things about everyone.

Speaker 2 But when's Fran coming back? What's happening with Fran? So the big reveal, Fran is back. We're going to do the live show soon.
It's all happening. But Fran, you're right.
Lots has happened.

Speaker 2 And that makes sense because it's been a bit of a time. I think just a couple of things I want to sort of signpost and let you know are happening.

Speaker 2 We've got some pretty significant things we're going to get into on this podcast. We've got basically Australia pulling out essentially,

Speaker 2 and I think this is always what they wanted at the end, of the bid for COP. So Turkey, Turkey is going to have COP, it seems.

Speaker 2 And this is quite significant, I think, because they really played a bit of a game, the government, of sort of pretending almost that they were really into this when clearly...

Speaker 2 They didn't fight too hard in my view, but we can get into that.

Speaker 4 Yeah, I want to get into that because

Speaker 4 they fooled me, to be honest. But anyway, well let's talk about did they?

Speaker 1 You got let's talk about that later.

Speaker 4 You know what I can't believe PK is that I've been away for quite a long time. I come back and now we're talking about immigration again.

Speaker 4 It's just this issue that keeps coming back isn't it and you know the coalition is clearly shifting their focus to immigration.

Speaker 4 Susan Lee feels much more comfortable on that territory and it's a territory that's sort of galvanizes the whole of the coalition I think.

Speaker 4 We know it's an issue that has in the past traditionally caused labor problems and here we are.

Speaker 2 We're here going we're here again not just us but much of the rest of the world it would seem yeah and I think that is the key point for Anne much of the rest of the world because that is the sort of perennial human story in many ways this sort of competition for space wealth land like that's really what the immigration story is partly about and also of course I think

Speaker 2 cohesion

Speaker 2 you know culture the concepts of who we are but look I'm being very existential there you certainly are that's me parliament returns next week.

Speaker 2 Lots on the agenda, including the environment laws and whether they will pass.

Speaker 2 Really interesting intervention I want to get into in the pod with our guest, who I'm about to secretly reveal, not so secretly in a moment, but interesting intervention from the Treasurer Jim Chalmers with me yesterday saying he would prefer a deal with a party of government, i.e.

Speaker 2 the Liberals, on environment laws, also kind of giving a steer of the direction he'd like to take there. Should we bring our in, though?

Speaker 4 Let's do it. I've been missing all of this and I am really thrilled actually that Mel Clark.
Okay, I'm going to do the reveal. Mel Clark is here to help us through it all.

Speaker 4 Mel, I want to say thank you for all of your brilliant work on the pod over the last few months. I used to think PK was the hardest working person in the ABC.

Speaker 4 Now I know that you can share that title because everywhere I seem to turn, there you were and doing a great job. So

Speaker 4 I'm loving this handover.

Speaker 1 Oh, thank you, Fran. And thank you, PK, for putting up with me for the last little while.
But, Fran, I'm just thrilled you're back because I'm the listener that wants to hear Fran and PK reunited.

Speaker 1 So, I'm glad I could be part of this handover episode and I can go back to being an enthusiastic member of the listening audience.

Speaker 2 You'll always be here, mate. You know that.
You're part of this team. Politics now is a broader family, and you're part of that.
Look, let's talk about it.

Speaker 2 Fran described it perfectly, really, the killing season. And it's such a

Speaker 2 brutal term, but so perfect for I think what political life really is

Speaker 2 federally though I think let's just kind of tell the story at a sort of national level we've got this new leader in Jess Wilson sort of a moderate liberal in Victoria that I will be the person to take the Liberal Party to the next election that I am the best person to put my foot forward and take up the very very serious

Speaker 2 third liberal leader in 11 months which is wild because the Victorian Liberal Party is a mess and is known to be.

Speaker 2 That change in direction, she's known for being kind of, you know, into net zero and climate change policy. So a really different direction, at least aesthetically.

Speaker 2 Let's see if her party lets her change any of their actual policies now.

Speaker 2 And then in New South Wales, the potential for Kelly Sloan to challenge their leader, Mark Speakman, again, a sort of teal-ish, I've described it as, in terms of the aesthetic aesthetic woman leader.

Speaker 2 So we've got all of that. And then federally, Mel,

Speaker 2 a weird situation where whether it happens next week or not, and I think my money is probably not, but you never know. And I don't have much money, so it doesn't matter.

Speaker 1 But

Speaker 2 ultimately, like, I think Susan Lee's time is kind of

Speaker 2 coming up.

Speaker 1 Do you see it that way? I think she'll be safe next week, although if something goes wrong, you know, a slight misstep, it wouldn't take much for things to cascade at the moment.

Speaker 1 But I don't think there's an appetite at the moment to suddenly get blood on the hands and jump into the seat.

Speaker 1 From what I can gather speaking to Liberals here, it is a case of her leadership won't last that long, but it should last over the summer period and sometime before the budget next year would be the zone in which the leadership change is likely to happen.

Speaker 1 But like I said, it does feel like it has that tenuousness that if there was a misstep or an unexpected move, that that would be enough to precipitate things at this point. So

Speaker 1 it's the killing season or the thereabouts killing season. It's definitely something in the air.

Speaker 4 Well, it's definitely something in the air, right? I mean, you know,

Speaker 4 the Victorian Libs have done it. The New South Wales Libs, we're recording this on a Thursday.
The word is that they're likely to have some kind of leadership meeting tonight.

Speaker 4 This afternoon, Mark Speakman, who keeps a pretty low profile generally and presumably hoping all this would blow over.

Speaker 10 I believe in showing up. I guess that means I'm a bit boring to some people but you know what? Boring gets the job done.

Speaker 4 He received a kind of a posse of moderate supporters last night. We don't exactly know what they said but it looks like there could be a challenge this afternoon.

Speaker 1 He hit the airwaves.

Speaker 2 He blasted out.

Speaker 1 He blasted out.

Speaker 4 Well you know what he's not conceding. He says loyalty and hard work were key to his leadership and boring gets the job done.

Speaker 4 But he also said, and I think this is key, he hit the airwaves this morning and he's blaming the low-polling of the New South Wales Libs under his leadership on quote brand damage from their federal counterparts now I don't think that's quite that simple but basically the Liberals around the country state and federally are having a kind of identity crisis they don't know whether to be a party of the centre with you know a moderate bent to appeal to all those gen z voters and the millennials that make up the bulk of the voters at the moment the inner suburbs or that ought to be you know tough on on crime, taking hardline positions on things like net zero, law and order, immigration, all of it.

Speaker 4 But what we do know is that none of them have been very successful in developing coherent, popular economic policies that they've been able to communicate.

Speaker 4 to the electorate at a time when everybody knows cost of living is the main issue. So they have a problem and Pika, you said it.
I mean there in Victoria where you are.

Speaker 4 The Labor government is on the nose. It's been in for 11 years.
It's unpopular. And the Libs are still fighting amongst themselves.

Speaker 2 Yeah, or at least they're sort of laying down their guns at least for a couple of days. Who knows how long it'll last?

Speaker 2 How long this kind of truce is.

Speaker 4 Yeah, but they've been all at sea, right? They haven't been able to capitalise on the low popularity of the Labor government there.

Speaker 2 No, and there's a reason. There's a few reasons for that.
One of them is, I think,

Speaker 2 truthfully, Victoria is a very kind of progressive-leaning state. I think South Australia is similar.
Like, so I think that is a factor.

Speaker 2 Another factor definitely is that

Speaker 2 some of their focus, like under Brad Batten, who's just been rolled, he really focused on crime, right? Now, I thought, you know, that's not a terrible strategy. Crime is a big issue in Victoria.

Speaker 2 People are very frustrated. But don't forget, and I think it's important to say this, that we have a very, and Raf and I talked about this on the pod the other day.

Speaker 2 We've got a really savvy Labor Party, right, in the Victorian Labor Party that really pivots when they need to. And they have now outflanked, out-right-winged the Liberal Party on crime.

Speaker 2 So sometimes that is part of the story too.

Speaker 2 So it'll be interesting to see whether that small owl, liberal, economic, kind of trying to get back to economics approach of Jess Wilson works and what the lessons might be, can I say,

Speaker 2 of trying less culture wars and perhaps, because I think that will be her emphasis, more economics, what that might look like electorally.

Speaker 1 I want to just pull out a little bit here because while there are certainly particularities between the different jurisdictions, and you know, we can throw the ACT in here as well, which have also just changed their leader in their liberal opposition.

Speaker 1 I think there's a bit of a common cause that is adding to the woes of the Liberal Party and their ability to take on Labour at different levels.

Speaker 1 And if we look at the decline in support for political parties, which isn't restricted to the Liberal Party, but I think they're really feeling feeling it more than others.

Speaker 1 The Labor Party has its institutional connections with the unions that keeps its membership at a much broader base than what the Liberal parties have seen. Their numbers have declined.

Speaker 1 Their membership base has become narrower in its political view. And I think you see that filter through in the candidates they select, in the policies that the party membership wants to focus on.

Speaker 1 And then when you have a period in opposition, your numbers are diminished at election losses, you lose more of that institutional support that helps you be an active and competitive political party.

Speaker 1 You don't have as many staff to help you.

Speaker 1 You lose the drain of people who are smart and aspire to be a politician in the future that might help with really good policy development behind the scenes in the early days.

Speaker 1 And I think what we're seeing federally and in Victoria in particular... particular,

Speaker 1 I'm not as clear about New South Wales because my knowledge isn't as deep there, but I presume they have similar issues in that they just lose a lot of institutional depth and support.

Speaker 1 That means they're just not as good at coming up with good policy offerings.

Speaker 1 They don't have as broad a range of candidates to thrash out policy debates or to choose leadership options from, which is why you end up with a first-term MP in Victoria now being the leader to take on a very experienced government.

Speaker 1 I think some of the things that we're talking about.

Speaker 4 We saw in the last election, and I think we're seeing it again now to some extent, an opposition, a Liberal opposition or a coalition, speaking in almost like headlines with the policy depth beneath it not there.

Speaker 4 And that was a real problem for the Libs at the last election. I mean, they ran a terrible campaign because they didn't have, they hadn't done the work they should have done.

Speaker 4 And perhaps you're right, Mel, it's a response of not having the numbers and the breadth to do it. And that's even, you know, written larger this time around.
And

Speaker 4 I've been watching from home and I've been watching the coalition and Susan Lee in particular, she's been on an absolute media blitz.

Speaker 11 To withstand any pressures coming from the likes of Andrew Hastie or Jacinda Price or anyone else who'd like to see you as a former opposition leader, not the current one?

Speaker 5 Ben, I've been underestimated a lot of my life. I remember when, you know, a lot of blokes told me I couldn't fly an aeroplane.

Speaker 4 Go out and spruce this, you know, dumping net zero. Okay, fine.
A lot of people think good idea.

Speaker 4 But there's big questions that she hasn't answered and a lot of attention has been drawn to the fact she can't say how much her policy would bring down prices.

Speaker 4 But also, I mean, every time she's on the media, she says emissions under her will come down year in year. She's committed to bringing down emissions.
But Mel,

Speaker 4 how? What is in the plan as we see it so far to make that happen?

Speaker 4 Because all I've seen is they're dropping the penalties on manufacturers in the emissions safeguard mechanism, so the pressure's off there for them to bring down emissions.

Speaker 4 They're dropping mandatory vehicle emissions standards, which has been promised for such a long time, barely in yet, and and and they're going to drop that it's all got to be they're instructing the regulator not to focus on emissions reduction How will emissions come down year on year under Susan Lee's plan?

Speaker 1 I think that's a really good point, Fran, and there's both the specifics of that policy and then what it tells us about their policy development.

Speaker 1 So we had the nationals in them coming up with their own party policy.

Speaker 1 They talked about going back to a system of directly funding polluters to reduce their emissions, which is sort of what we had in the Abbott government era.

Speaker 1 The joint coalition policy didn't adopt that approach.

Speaker 1 So all they can really point to is wanting to change the investment mandate of the Clean Energy Finance Corporation and ARENA, the Renewable Energy Agency, to be able to fund technologies like carbon capture and storage, soil carbon, and a couple of other sort of unproven but hoped for developments to reduce emissions.

Speaker 1 Other than the sort of speculative, well, if carbon capture and storage can develop in the future, which has a very big question mark over it, there isn't really an answer to the how question.

Speaker 1 It's just not there. And that's one of the logical, incoherent elements of this policy, where there's statements about things, but not the detail to back it up.
There's contradictions in this policy.

Speaker 1 And I think that comes back to this bigger question.

Speaker 1 What we're seeing is the party acting in a political accommodation without having a strong policy base on which to draw or to develop it even in a shortened time frame.

Speaker 1 They just haven't been able to do that. And it's leading to policies like this that frankly don't make sense a lot of the time.

Speaker 2 Yeah, the policies that don't make sense at a lot of the time. Look, I want to let you in because that's the point of this podcast on some of the conversations I've had.

Speaker 2 I've spoken to lots of moderates, of course, and others about, you know, the way this is all played out. And, oh man, I'm just going to tell you what I really think.

Speaker 2 They're telling me, they don't, this is not settled. You can drive a truck through this policy.
This is a sort of deeply problematic policy. It will have to be revisited again.

Speaker 2 It's not settled at all. Like, right now, the Conservatives, yeah, the Conservatives have the numbers.
That's the story. They have the numbers.

Speaker 2 And we'll get to immigration in a moment because I think it's really key and how that's going to be played out next. And therefore, that's why we've got this outcome.

Speaker 2 Now, the numbers aren't likely to change before the next election, of course, because that's the, you know, the parliament, it's fixed until unless there's some wild by-election or something.

Speaker 2 So that means that how do they think they can revisit it? Well, I think through kind of chipping away in some ways, right?

Speaker 2 Like if you listen to some of the moderates, they're still, you know, they're emphasizing, Mel, you've talked about this, that they're still in Paris, that they, you know, they're going to have to push for some of these.

Speaker 2 They're being, they're trying to push this, we're not going to subsidise coal. But the policy is about subsidizing potentially coal, Mel.

Speaker 1 Like,

Speaker 2 is my brain not sort of processing information right?

Speaker 1 Like what's happening here?

Speaker 1 What you have is completely contrary statements being read out of the same information. And that's because the policy doesn't match.

Speaker 1 The process of wanting to abandon net zero and the 2030 and 2035 targets, but stay in an international framework which is designed to get everyone to get to net zero in the second half of the century by five yearly targets that you can't go backwards on, being in something that your policy is directly opposed to is not something that you can easily wrap your head around, PK, because they are contrary ideas.

Speaker 1 It's ultimately what it comes down to.

Speaker 2 So then we've got the next debate, and this is really key to mention. So the conservatives and the leading conservative, really, Andrew Hastie, and I say leading in terms of really being

Speaker 2 a bit of a maverick trying to push the line, puts out

Speaker 2 some internet stuff basically suggesting, hey,

Speaker 2 memes and all the stuff he does on his social media, fair enough, it's the generation we live in, saying

Speaker 2 next it's immigration. We've had our first victory, net zero.
It's almost like a shopping list of what to do to change the direction of the sort of centre-right party, the Liberals.

Speaker 2 And next is immigration.

Speaker 2 Now, what I couldn't believe this week, and I just have been desperate to sort of pick the brain of Fran Kelly on this, is when Susan Lee on Sunday, and I worked Sunday because I wrote a column at the end of that, the joint press conference with Little Proud.

Speaker 2 It seems like a million years ago now, but she stands up to announce the sort of brochure, you know, the we're going to give money to Cole. And then all week they've said, maybe not.

Speaker 2 Like, I don't even know what the line is. So they stand up to announce it.
And then she sort of throws in, guess what? Next, I'm going to settle this immigration question.

Speaker 12 Migration policy over the last six months, I said when I became leader, the number was too high.

Speaker 2 And Sally, in in the coming weeks we'll release the principles of our migration policy but the numbers and i just my brain blew like i thought why are you telling us this well i didn't have to ask myself for long guys because i knew the answer the conservatives have already written the script that that must happen next she was sending a signal that don't worry i'm listening i'll do it today she's being grilled we're recording this on a thursday as we do about what that means she says her party isn't stoking division in australia by focusing on immigration that this was going to to be, you know, a policy that was

Speaker 2 thought about through the prism of infrastructure. But I spoke to John O'Duniam, who's the home affairs, shadow home affairs spokesperson.
And I can tell you, you know, this is multifaceted.

Speaker 2 He also said it's not about race, but he did talk about values and citizenship and the sort of questions they'd like to ask people coming to Australia. Fran, how do you see all of this?

Speaker 4 I see it as same old, same old. I mean, they can't help themselves because it is true.

Speaker 4 There is a sensitivity, if not an anger, in the broad electorate right now about infrastructure, about lack of housing, about clogged roads, about certain suburbs getting, you know, perhaps more than their fair share, if you like, of refugees coming in, asylum seekers coming in, refugees.

Speaker 4 And that is... That is true and that is causing tensions.
And we have all that social cohesion disruption that we've seen in the wake, particularly of the Gaza War. So it's ripe now.

Speaker 4 But Susan Lee might want to say, it's not about the immigrants coming here. It's not that we resent you.

Speaker 4 It's just that the government is mismanaging it so that we can't manage this in a way that can be folded into

Speaker 4 a community that is at ease and without tension. And it harks back to the Howard years.
Philip Ruddick, his mantra was: Australians want an orderly migration system. And that is true.
They do.

Speaker 4 We largely have an orderly migration system it got out of whack it has got out of whack the numbers are too high there's we've had the argument about foreign students both parties the government too say we've got to have fewer foreign students and I think there's wide agreement around that let's not forget that too is about government policy because you know the universities have depend been more and more on the money coming from the foreign students as governments have withdrawn funding.

Speaker 4 I mean don't get me started on Australian governments past and present lack of focus on our university system which in my view is broken but also the coalition is looking outwards it's looking around the world it's seen what's happened with immigration in Trump's America and particularly it's looking at the division and the unrest in the UK at the moment and the rise of the right like the Reform UK Party, which is headed by Nigel Farage.

Speaker 4 The last government polling on Nigel Farage had him becoming Prime Minister if a vote was held today in the UK.

Speaker 4 Now that is wild and the Liberals and the Nationals are looking around and seeing, no, not quite that here in Australia yet, but some of the same dynamic.

Speaker 4 Look at the polling this week that shows one nation vote as high as 18% with the Libs vote tumbling to just 24%. So we're not there yet.

Speaker 4 They can see the pattern and they're preparing to capitalise on it.

Speaker 1 I think that you're really right to point to what's happening overseas, Fran, because that is absolutely in the minds of particularly the Conservatives within the Liberal Party, and they see international trends and see that as a guide for how they may be able to tackle this issue domestically.

Speaker 1 But I think you have

Speaker 1 a very narrow but important point that Susan Lee has to manage in this immigration debate, which is she has a party that agrees that immigration should be lower, but I have part of the party that want to talk about the problem of how many people are coming, and you've got the other part of the party that want to talk about infrastructure and its failure to keep up with our immigration.

Speaker 1 Now they're two sides of the same coin.

Speaker 1 They're absolutely related issues but how you emphasise it and what you choose to put the emphasis on makes a really big difference to how this debate is read by the public. It's a real

Speaker 4 impact of this debate.

Speaker 1 Absolutely. Do you want to talk about the chicken or do you want to talk about the egg?

Speaker 1 Different parts of the Liberal Party want to talk about different things and it's going to change very much how this is received so that is going to be crucial for susan lee to manage as she tries to bring the party to a position on this the other thing i think it's worth but also crucial for labor because yeah it's it's devilishly difficult

Speaker 1 devilishly we've missed the kelly haven't we devilishly difficult yes well and part of the difficulty that Susan Lee is going to have to set out in this policy, even if she doesn't come to any conclusion about numbers, which I don't think she will because Peter Dutton tried to put a number and no details and it worked very badly for him prior to the last election.

Speaker 1 But you need to give some sense of what you mean if you talk about cutting numbers.

Speaker 1 And wherever Susan Lee might look to our immigration intake to cut, there are trade-offs that she will have to try to justify. Is it skilled migrants that you want to reduce?

Speaker 1 Because that has flow and impacts.

Speaker 1 Do you want to reduce students when that's also a big economic driver and have already been efforts to cap numbers at universities that universities have pushed back against.

Speaker 1 So do you want to take that on? We've got big numbers that come from New Zealand because we have free movement of people between Australia and New Zealand.

Speaker 1 I don't think you really want to attack that, but that's a key source of numbers coming here because of the economic situation in New Zealand.

Speaker 1 Another key area is tourist numbers because there are plenty of people who come on a tourist visa but then apply for other visas, including protection visas, once they get here.

Speaker 1 So how do you want to tackle that? And is that going to put limitations on tourism? And this is what I meant. At every point,

Speaker 1 there are plenty of levers she can pull, but they all have trade-offs. And she's going to have to give some level of detail that is going to lead to pushback.

Speaker 1 It's a very difficult policy area to tackle.

Speaker 2 All right, I want to do a like dramatic segue to something else, which I think is a big deal, and I'll explain.

Speaker 7 Turkey will host the conference, but Australia, by having the COP presidency forward negotiations will be in a very strong position.

Speaker 4 Breaking news

Speaker 2 as we record.

Speaker 2 Turkey has won the COP conference fight.

Speaker 2 Chris Bowen, the climate and energy minister, he is to become the COP president.

Speaker 2 They've been playing this elaborate game that people have been calling out in the last week, finally, of pretending to want the cop when really they're always doing these side deals and now it's come to a head we were not going to get the cop uh the cop was always going to be we were not going to get the cop or we didn't want the cop we didn't want the cop too much i'm so i'm so surprised by this in some ways

Speaker 4 i know i know i know i'm i'm i'm naive but you know there was a lot of work done in south australia over the last 12 months about this about trying to make sure it came to south australia it was going to be a boon to South Australia.

Speaker 4 They were talking to groups about funding different projects as all part of it. That wasn't made up.

Speaker 2 Just some of the complexity is. Yeah, you think that about Adelaide, but they've also got a state election.
And do you think this, like it looks, oh,

Speaker 2 jobs, but is it because it also costs a lot and it doesn't play well in the tabloid media that you're spending money on these fancy pants people coming to have these meetings when average people can't afford, I don't know, tins of tuna.

Speaker 2 Like there are issues with the optics here and Labor governments are alive to it. I don't know, Mel.
My mail is, they haven't been trying too hard.

Speaker 1 Look, I think we should point out that this bid originated quite some time ago.

Speaker 1 And I think Labor absolutely wanted to host COP31 in the early days of its first term because at that point They were Labor coming into government.

Speaker 1 They had a good internet story to tell the international community that they were coming in with a more ambitious approach to taking action on climate change than the previous coalition government in Australia.

Speaker 1 And COP31 would be a platform on which this message could be sold.

Speaker 1 It was a way to try to repair relations with Pacific nations that Scott Morrison hadn't been particularly deft in managing when it came to the issue of climate change.

Speaker 1 And we saw that at a number of PIF meetings, including the very infamous one in Tuvalu, where people were crying in the meeting of leaders over some of Scott Morrison's comments.

Speaker 1 So I think Labor was very committed to this bid when it was first made and through its first term.

Speaker 1 I do think circumstances have changed in a second term where some in cabinet, not all, I think some are still very committed to it. Hello, Chris Bond.

Speaker 1 But I think some in cabinet have the concerns that you've raised, PK, of how is it going to look spending this money? Do we want to invite extra scrutiny about our approval of resource exports?

Speaker 1 Exactly,

Speaker 1 environmental approvals of gas developments when a lot of COP is about trying to stop the development of new coal and gas facilities.

Speaker 1 So I think the circumstances have changed over time and Labor's appetite for this has changed over time.

Speaker 2 I think they I'm so glad you framed it better than I did, Mel, because that's right. No, it's true.

Speaker 1 I just stretched back a little further in time, I think.

Speaker 2 Stretching is important because it's not like they fabricated an interest from the beginning, I agree, but it has dramatically

Speaker 4 true and this was seen as proving Australia's bona fides to the Pacific and the Pacific is a big part of our security policy at the moment as Australia tries to fend off China moving

Speaker 4 more into the Pacific. So we have been really having a, as I say, a love offensive with the Pacific and this was part of it.

Speaker 4 So there's got to be something in this deal that maintains some profile for the Pacific or our Pacific neighbours won't be happy.

Speaker 2 Our Pacific neighbours must be onto us a little, though, that we've waned this interest. Seriously.

Speaker 1 I think there's still some details we'll have to learn as this is all trickling out as we speak, as well, because there was a strong push from the Australian government as a plan B to try and secure certain guarantees about events in a COP that might mean greater prominence for Pacific initiatives.

Speaker 1 So I think we'll also have to wait and see what else has been secured. But obviously, Chris Bowen having the presidency is very significant.
And Didn't happen overnight. Absolutely.

Speaker 1 All right, all right, all right.

Speaker 4 I've been off with a broken knee, so I didn't know.

Speaker 1 But anyway, this is how the sausage is made, guys.

Speaker 4 This is how the sausage is made.

Speaker 4 Look, the sausage is going to, it's got one last chance for Labor to make some of their key elements of policy before the end of the year, because Parliament's back next week, and I'm looking forward to that.

Speaker 4 But I have to say, my pick of this week, and I imagine it's going to feature somewhere next week, was the moment when Pauline Hansen told Sally Sarr on our in breakfast that she's looking forward to inviting Barnaby Joyce to dinner.

Speaker 4 She's going to cook him a dinner.

Speaker 12 This week, so I hope to catch up with Barnaby next week, and I intend to cook him dinner and have a good talk.

Speaker 4 Good chat. And she was really making no bones about the fact that she wants Barnaby there alongside her at One Nation.

Speaker 4 I just thought that was gold. And very telling, and very telling, because that poll I mentioned before, you know, it had One Nation's vote soaring, really.
She's clearly got her eye on

Speaker 4 the big prize here and she thinks bringing in someone with Barnaby Joyce's experience and just getting that chink in perhaps the coalition, the Nats in particular, you know, she's clearly got a plan but when she invited him to say she was going to cook a dinner, I just love that.

Speaker 1 I think we should briefly mention the polling because it's very interesting and there's a lot of attention being paid to it.

Speaker 4 We should say it's the Redbridge polling.

Speaker 1 This is the Redbridge polling that was in the Australian Financial Review that showed their

Speaker 1 primary vote going up to 18%, which is very significant for One Nation, having the Liberal Party's primary vote down at 24%,

Speaker 1 which is phenomenally low.

Speaker 1 I guess I just want to add in some of the normal disclaimers around polling, particularly at this time of year when we're very far away from, or this time in the electoral cycle where we're very far away from the next poll.

Speaker 1 and there is big disaffection with one of the major parties, in particular the Liberal Party. I think we're seeing more votes for minor and independents across the board.

Speaker 1 We're seeing dissatisfaction with the Liberal Party and some of that is bleeding to One Nation and some of it is bleeding to Labor.

Speaker 1 And you're much more likely to have people being polled at this point in the electoral cycle to be willing to mentally commit a vote. to a non-major party.
Yeah, true.

Speaker 1 That doesn't happen when we actually have a federal election. You know, we always talk about our polls tighten closer to polling day.

Speaker 1 And I think that's very true when we're also, you know, two and a half years away from polling day. I'm not saying this isn't significant.
It clearly is. But it's also.

Speaker 1 not what would happen if we had a had polling tomorrow. The situation would be a bit different.
I guess there's just a little bit of caution in there.

Speaker 4 When people get in the ballot box with their lead pencil, their stubby little pencil, and then, you know, they really come to grips with what's going on.

Speaker 4 But it is the electorate certainly putting a scare, I think, into the coalition.

Speaker 1 There's a message there, 100%.

Speaker 2 So many messages. All right, quick thoughts.
Parliament's returning.

Speaker 2 I'm going to put to you, Mel, do you reckon? Do you reckon they're going to do a deal with someone? Probably the coalition, maybe. I don't know.

Speaker 1 I think there's a good chance of it. I think there's a good chance that a deal gets done on national environment laws.

Speaker 1 There are avenues with both the Greens and the Coalition, and there's rationale for both of them.

Speaker 1 I know there are definitely views of some within the Liberal Party that having taken the position they have on net zero that there's a need to be seen to be constructive on some environmental element and this is one where the business community does want a deal struck and would like the coalition to do that so there's quite a few things that line up to nudge the coalition to try and take the lead here having said that

Speaker 1 Labor's previous resistance to doing a deal with the Greens, not wanting to give them a win, is less of a vociferous concern for them than than it has been, that it was at the end of their last term.

Speaker 1 Again, we're at a different point in the electoral cycle. There's a desire to just get this done in any way, shape or form, more so than getting it done exactly how they want it to get done.

Speaker 1 So I do think both avenues are open and I wouldn't be surprised if a deal is struck next week.

Speaker 2 That is interesting. And look, there is, don't forget, the Liberals have completely, I think,

Speaker 2 well, I'm going to go there, kind of trashed the remaining credentials they even had because of the sort of flipping on net zero. So there is from moderates a bit of a flexing on this.

Speaker 2 I noticed that from two moderates on my show, Andrew Bragg, Dave Sharma. Like, I think they would like to show that they are serious about getting a deal on this.

Speaker 1 I've even heard it from Conservatives, the Liberal Party, who acknowledge that even though they're very happy with the outcome they've got, that there is some brand damage in some parts of their supporter base.

Speaker 1 So I do think that sentiment is there beyond the moderates.

Speaker 4 Yeah, I think so. So the Libs are going to have to give considerable ground, aren't they, to sign on?

Speaker 4 Because Labor surely is not going to agree to this with a watered-down environmental protection agency.

Speaker 1 I think there's room to move there because the business community has sort of already got the main objection that they had, which is they wanted the ministerial discretion to remain.

Speaker 1 And they've got that in the current draft. I think with some tinkering around definitions that are there, I think an agreement is quite close.

Speaker 1 I don't think the Liberal Party will have to make major concessions. I think what has been put on the board by the business community, if Labor can agree to that,

Speaker 1 I don't think that's a huge stretch for the Liberal Party.

Speaker 2 Not a huge stretch, but you know what? Next week is going to be absolutely wild for Susan Lee.

Speaker 2 I know we started with the prediction based on what we know that it's unlikely she'll get rolled, but managing her party room next week is not going to be easy. It is just not.

Speaker 2 There is a lot of unknowns and she has to just tread very carefully. Can I say having both of you, my ladies, my political sisters, talk to me today has been such a delight.
Thank you.

Speaker 4 Sisters, it's been great to quote you, Piquet. And Mel, fantastic as always, as you've been right through this.
Thank you so so much. And Mel, I've just been loving this handover issue.

Speaker 4 In fact, I don't want to finish yet. So you've been great.
You've been great right throughout. You've been great today.
But why don't you stay for question time?

Speaker 1 Oh, I'd love to. Every political tragic's favourite moment, be it in parliament or on the party room podcast, I will definitely stay for question time.

Speaker 4 Bring it on.

Speaker 8 Questions without notice? Are there any questions? Members on my row. Prime Minister has the call.
Thanks very much, Mr. Speaker.

Speaker 8 Well, then I give the call to the Honourable, the Leader of the Opposition.

Speaker 5 Thank you, Mr. Speaker.
My question is to the Prime Minister.

Speaker 2 The bells are ringing. That means it's time for our question time.
This week's question comes from Dan.

Speaker 13 Hey Party Rumours, it's Dan from Richmond in Melbourne. I love the show and I rarely miss an episode so thank you for everything you do.

Speaker 13 My question is about the federal Liberals ditching net zero and whether you think that might have a flow-on impact to state elections next year with at least South Australia and Victoria going to the polls.

Speaker 13 Now I know that normally you'd probably say that people can distinguish between state and federal issues, but when you've got something like the environment that obviously cuts across all levels of politics and all levels of government, can

Speaker 13 basically state parties get away with pretending to have a different philosophical outlook on the environment than the feds?

Speaker 13 I get the impression that it seems like, seeing the feds have made such a big call, it has to surely flow through to impact state and local politics as well. I'd love to hear your views.

Speaker 13 Thanks very much. Bye.

Speaker 2 Dan, great question. Fran, what do you reckon?

Speaker 4 Well, you know, I said earlier, we've sort of talked about this a little bit, that Mark Speakman was saying that the New South Wales libs have suffered brand damage from the federal libs, and to some extent that's true.

Speaker 4 I think it is true, Dan, that voters do and can distinguish between state and federal issues.

Speaker 4 But when you've got something like the net zero thing, for instance, on the Liberals' headline policy, and we know that younger voters make up the bulk of the vote at a state level and a federal level, and this is an issue close to their heart, you know, it makes it difficult for state governments because are they going to be completely at odds with their federal counterparts?

Speaker 4 Then what does that mean for the effectiveness of the federal position?

Speaker 4 You've already got Pauline Hanson out this week saying the Fed's opposition to net zero is a nonsense because state governments are all for it.

Speaker 1 You know,

Speaker 4 I can see that it's difficult for state governments to differentiate themselves. It's difficult for that to make a coherent position for the coalition.

Speaker 4 And I think that there is going to be an impact for state governments if the federal opposition stays true to this hard line on the environment. I really do.

Speaker 1 I think you're right, Fran. Voters can differentiate, but there is undoubtedly a cost that the states are paying for the prominence that federal politics gets in our media.

Speaker 1 And increasingly, with media shrinking and a number of outlets not having resources to cover local news in the way that they used to, we see a lot more national news around the country, more so than state and local politics.

Speaker 1 And if there is credibility issues for a party on an issue at a national level,

Speaker 1 Without doubt, that would raise question marks in the minds of some voters who are paying close attention.

Speaker 1 If you really care about reaching net zero as soon as possible, you've seen the federal liberals work very hard to move away from that position, but your state party, your state Liberal party is saying it's committed to it, you might reasonably have a question mark of

Speaker 1 just how committed is a party to this policy. And if you're not paying close attention,

Speaker 1 maybe you do fall in the category of, oh well, what do I know about the Liberals?

Speaker 1 I know they're not really for net zero, so that's when I come to the ballot box, that's not really the party when that's all I recognise on the ballot paper is the party.

Speaker 1 I'm just not convinced. So I do think there is an impact between

Speaker 1 the different levels of government. It's just a question of not overstating it, I guess.

Speaker 2 Yeah,

Speaker 2 I think all of those points are right, so I'm just not going to repeat the problem.

Speaker 1 The great points that you've made. Okay, good.

Speaker 1 People shouldn't do that.

Speaker 2 Thank you so much, Mel. It's been so terrific to have you on the pod.

Speaker 1 Once again, thank you, team.

Speaker 4 Yeah, we'll see you again soon, Mel, and thanks again. Everyone, send your questions in because we love getting them.

Speaker 4 We're especially fond of voice notes, which you can email to the partyroom at abc.net.au.

Speaker 2 Remember to follow Politics Now on the ABC Listen app so you never miss an episode.

Speaker 4 And that's it from the party room for this week.

Speaker 4 But David Spears will be in the feed for Insiders on Background on Saturday, speaking with Tanya Constable from the Minerals Council, talking about net zero, of course, the EPBC, and critical minerals.

Speaker 4 So it's all there, David, having a look ahead really to what we'll be looking at next week, probably.

Speaker 2 That's right. And I'll be back in your feed on Monday for Politics Now with Jacob, which will be, of course, a big day ahead of the sitting week.

Speaker 2 Fran, just a reminder that people can get tickets for the Politics Now Party Room live show. The link is in the show notes.

Speaker 2 I've been talking about us coordinating our outfits to the audience, I don't know, to the listeners while you've been gone. I haven't really raised it with you, but let's have a chat about that.

Speaker 4 Okay, well, we'll see how we can gather around Orange, shall we? I'm excited about this. It's on at the Canberra Theatre on the 2nd of December, and it's just going to be a huge amount of fun.

Speaker 2 It's really going to be lots of fun. I can't wait.
See you, Fran. See you, Mel.

Speaker 4 See you, PK. See you, Mel.
See ya.