Net zero gains for Sussan Ley

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Speaker 2 Jules and Jez here, and every week on Not Stupid, we chat about the news in your feeds.

Speaker 3 So, there was a study done in the UK last year. It was a poll of 2,000 cat and dog owners, and one-third of them said they would rather talk to their pets than actual people.

Speaker 3 Entirely believable, I think.

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Speaker 2 As Parliament returns for its final sitting week of the whole year, Labor is looking at all avenues to pass its controversial environment laws. Yes, it's actually called the EPBC legislation.

Speaker 2 but you don't have to call it that.

Speaker 2 And while the Greens and the Coalition mull over what conditions they want for their support, Murray Watt is warning that this is a now or never moment for the environment laws.

Speaker 2 Meanwhile, after two state opposition leaders were rolled last week and another dire news poll this morning, there's no doubt Susan Lee will be sleeping with one eye open this week.

Speaker 2 Welcome to Politics Now.

Speaker 2 Hi, I'm Patricia Carvellis.

Speaker 1 And I'm Jacob Greywell. That sounded like a Metallica lyric at the end there.
That's funny. My partner went to the house.
I was like, I was sleeping with Holly at a concert just recently.

Speaker 2 Did you?

Speaker 1 No, no, I didn't. She said it was good.
It would have been good. Yeah.
Enjoying your coffee.

Speaker 2 I'm so into it. Oh, yeah, Jacob.

Speaker 1 You know, it's the first time in my life I've had to order a soy latte, but I did.

Speaker 2 Did you just out my coffee order on the pod? Yeah, I have like a very woke inner city coffee order. I'm proud of it.

Speaker 1 All the rumours are true, listeners.

Speaker 1 What you always suspected about PK is true.

Speaker 2 The truth is I like the nutty taste. It's not sort of an ideological agenda.

Speaker 2 But what I want to say is thank you for buying me the coffee. Not only did you buy it, but you went to the coffee cart to buy it, and I didn't even come with you.

Speaker 1 The coffee cart man.

Speaker 2 But seriously, yeah, sleep with one eye.

Speaker 1 Oh, no, no, no, no, no.

Speaker 2 Yeah, I know what you're talking about. I know people who really do that, by the way.
I'm not going to name them, but like some people can't close their eyes at night.

Speaker 2 I'm not sure if she's in that category, but she would be paranoid at the moment. She'd be worried.
She's worried.

Speaker 1 She's worried.

Speaker 2 She seems worried. Sometimes I think she seems rattled.

Speaker 1 The poll, that poll by News Poll, was actually brought forward a little bit. That was actually scheduled to go a bit later.
So, yes, how could they have done that?

Speaker 1 Start of a sitting week, the last one of the year. There is a Liberal Party room meeting tomorrow on the Tuesday, for those of you listening.

Speaker 1 And yeah, at the moment, there's nothing a brewing. There's nothing, there's no deals done, there's no,

Speaker 1 you know, the right hasn't decided who their candidate is, yada, yada, yada. All of that, people keep telling me that you might be hearing the same thing.

Speaker 2 Absolutely. In fact, I've run into some senior right-wingers in my travels who are like, oh, this is hilarious, the amount of excitement you guys have over all of this.

Speaker 1 But who knows?

Speaker 2 Well, exactly. And it's often when they deny a lot to you, sometimes think, hmm, you seem to be protesting a lot, me-matey.

Speaker 1 And so they drop one nation, sorry, not one nation. That's a Freudian slip in a political sense.

Speaker 1 They dropped net zero with a view to getting votes back from One Nation where they've been drifting since the election.

Speaker 1 And the news poll today indicating that, well, maybe it's too early to know whether that strategy's worked. That's certainly what David Littleproud reckons.

Speaker 1 He's saying, give us time, we'll be able to make that case about why net zero was such a terrible thing and voters will come back to us.

Speaker 1 But she would have been a little bit disappointed with that number today. One Nation still on the 15%.

Speaker 1 The only party that actually really moved were the Greens. They went up two,

Speaker 1 which is why the two-party preferred for Labor is now 58 to, I mean, 58. It's extraordinary.

Speaker 1 Why are we even talking about politics?

Speaker 2 With the preference flows to explain to people who don't understand the system. So it's kind of boosted them, right?

Speaker 1 But for her, it still means that tomorrow is just a day she's going to have to try and get through.

Speaker 1 And

Speaker 1 there's almost 50, 50 odd members in the party room. Any one of them can cause some serious mischief.
That's right. Whether they do or don't.

Speaker 2 And what's worth mentioning about News Poll is, so it was at record lows. It's kind of stayed there for her.
I don't think it's got any worse, but it was already so bad. So, okay.

Speaker 2 The other part to mention about it, and a couple of libs have said this to me, who are more

Speaker 2 it's obvious moderates, are more of the pro.

Speaker 2 They should have kept net zero by 2050. Schools say, hang on a minute, look look at the figure two.
This is a week after everyone knows we've dumped net zero. Do you see the coalition vote increasing?

Speaker 2 Like, do you see that it's had a positive outcome for them? Has it given them a right wing boost even? No. It's not.

Speaker 2 It's all same, same, right? So they're not,

Speaker 2 someone made a joke, it's like net zero results, right? Like there's no, yeah, like, can you see that?

Speaker 1 And I think there's a perfectly good explanation for that, actually.

Speaker 1 If you are a One Nation voter/slash conservative voter and you're saying, I want my representatives to dump net zero, I think this climate stuff's a whole bunch of hooey,

Speaker 1 you've drifted to One Nation because it's really clear what her position is, what Pauline Hansen's position is. It's never changed.
She doesn't think any of this makes sense.

Speaker 1 She's always been opposed to it. Whereas the Liberal Party and the Coalition took it to two elections.
They've then had this debate.

Speaker 1 They've landed on a position where they're not talking about net zero, but there's a bunch of them saying, well, actually, we still are in the Paris Agreement, which is about getting to net zero.

Speaker 1 So the message is very mixed. It's not a black and white piece of political

Speaker 1 branding, if you like. It's this blend.
So those One Nation voters who

Speaker 1 want their coalition partners to go that way, they're just staying with One Nation because it's quite clear what One Nation's position is. I think that's why that hasn't moved.

Speaker 1 But it is just one week.

Speaker 2 That's right, yeah. And it takes a while, someone actually acknowledged that.

Speaker 2 Like it takes a while repetition of message for people to get it although i think there was a lot of big bang and a lot of coverage of them dumping net zero and the bit before where they were going to dump it and everyone knew it was going to happen so i do think it's probably out there in the the vibe of the community that they know they've gone in this direction it's just worth mentioning in my view the way and i'm just going to sort of call it out the way that news poll was a bit framed the framing around

Speaker 2 you know almost the headline like sort of smoke and mirrors suggesting you know andrew Hasties closing in on her.

Speaker 2 I don't think so.

Speaker 2 She's still, as far as I can see,

Speaker 2 in all the categories, particularly the ones that they need.

Speaker 1 Go through the numbers.

Speaker 1 She's, what, 21%? Yeah.

Speaker 1 Which is the most of all of them, isn't it? Yep. On the liberal side.
Yep.

Speaker 2 I mean, it's not great ratings, but it's better than everyone else's.

Speaker 1 Yeah.

Speaker 2 Then Hasties next, right? Yeah. So that's a problem for.

Speaker 1 Tim Wilson's six. He's already put out a funny tweet, apparently.
Of course he has. So he's

Speaker 1 he said, he says he's only been in six months and he's at six percent at this rate. He'll be in the high twenties at the next election.

Speaker 1 He was semi-joking about that.

Speaker 2 Semi. Semi is the important word.
Okay, so.

Speaker 1 O'Brien. Ted O'Brien was three.
Thank you, Lara.

Speaker 2 Thank you. Lara, our producer, sitting with us and she helps us with like really obvious things that we can't work out because we're middle-aged.

Speaker 2 Can I say, Jacob, Andrew Hastie is the second most popular of an unpopular rating.

Speaker 2 Let's be clear about that. Of not sort of...

Speaker 1 And what was Taylor? Like, I've lost what Taylor is, but

Speaker 1 he was under Hastie. And that's the point.
That's the point.

Speaker 2 So I get the point they're trying to make there, that out of the conservatives, Hastie's the winner.

Speaker 2 But if you look at even Hastie's numbers, a few people pointed out to me in the groups they need to grow in terms of their voter, young people, women and stuff.

Speaker 2 Hasty's not like winning those groups or anything. He's actually popular with boomers, older people.
So he doesn't solve that problem for them either, even though he is a millennial.

Speaker 1 Yeah, and the other interesting thing, if we're talking about polls, there was one last week in the AFR where I think one-third of voters didn't know who Andrew Hastie or Angus Taylor are.

Speaker 1 that they're actually they're they're not very well defined in people's minds and that's maybe normal. They haven't led the party.

Speaker 1 Leaders always, you know, that you make up your mind when they when people become leaders but the danger for both of those characters is that Labor can then get out the paint set and start painting a portrait of who these people are for that 30% that doesn't know who they are that's yeah so so whoever gets this job and to go back to our original conversation if there is something some event in the next few days next 24 hours if Lee is not the leader, the new person gets one shot at creating a first impression.

Speaker 1 And

Speaker 1 probably means you and I don't get much of a Christmas or January because they'll be out all the time having to make that first impression.

Speaker 2 It's so true, which is why I think they're not going to Astoolam on that side, do it now, because I don't think that it's in their interests actually to do it over that period.

Speaker 2 And I also think that, you know, they have got a pretty sharp labor machine up against them.

Speaker 2 Do you think the labor machine isn't planning on how to frame, it's the language they use in politics, the framing of Andrew Hastie.

Speaker 2 So there's a competition now, and Hastie's aware of this, of who will frame him first. Will he be framing himself

Speaker 2 like within the way he wants to present, or will Labour be framing him as, and you can imagine, a sort of

Speaker 2 old school woman, you know, not into women, like not contemporary figure. That's what they'll try and do.
So that will be a thing.

Speaker 2 It brings me though, if we're talking about Susan Lee and their direction to the obvious point about the week ahead of us and that's the EPBC the environment laws this one's really fascinating also not fascinating so I'll tell you the fascinating bit first the fascinating bit is

Speaker 2 that the government is trying to play a little bit of

Speaker 2 well they're playing they're playing the theatre quite well here I'll give them some credit which is well we're just going to get a deal regardless so you know putting the hard word on the coalition or the greens as we record this on a Monday morning or Monday sort of mid of the day, even before question time, it is my vibe that it's more likely, possibly, that it's a Greens deal, and I'll explain.

Speaker 2 I'm not saying it's happened because it hasn't, but I reckon Susan Lee,

Speaker 2 because she's so weakened, would find it very difficult to do a deal on environment laws. especially because she has a party room that will probably, some of them at least, cross the floor on.

Speaker 2 It kind of weakens her authority. She can't make a captain's pick.

Speaker 2 You know what I mean? Can you see it happening?

Speaker 2 I just think it's really difficult for her to go there.

Speaker 1 I wrote maybe two months ago that it was going to go through the Greens. And of course, you never know.
But I've always had that view that you've just explained.

Speaker 1 The structural reason why she's going to have trouble getting this through. through her party room.

Speaker 1 There's a rump in the coalition that really doesn't want to help Labor here fix these environmental laws.

Speaker 1 They think the decisions and the version that Labor has come up with will be very, very unfriendly to resources companies, will hurt communities that they try to represent, you know, central Queensland, and frankly they want to campaign against whatever it is that it lands.

Speaker 1 So that rump has never really been on board, no matter what.

Speaker 1 the ones who are keen to get a deal done. And remember, this is originally Liberal Party legislation.
This was John Howard's environmental bill.

Speaker 1 So there are Liberals who feel they should be part of the solution here for the problems with it, which everyone agrees there are problems with this bill.

Speaker 1 No one thinks the current system works.

Speaker 2 It does not.

Speaker 1 And so the government has recognised that particularly they've really tried to grab the fact that the coalition's moved away from net zero.

Speaker 1 as an opportunity then to say to the Liberals, hey, you guys need a win on environment, your environment law, so you need to come to the party.

Speaker 1 And that's the, I mean, that's the sort of kabuki theater that we're playing this week in the next 48 hours.

Speaker 2 Can I add something to that that I think is interesting to explore? Yeah, they're doing that. That's all accurate.

Speaker 2 But I actually think there's a risk, I'm going to go there, for Labor to be doing a deal with the coalition, who they keep calling climate change deniers. So they say they're climate change deniers.

Speaker 2 They're banging on about them dumping net zero by 2050. Fair enough.

Speaker 2 I'm not bagging them for doing that. I would too if I was in the Labor Party.
I'd be bagging on about it too.

Speaker 2 But then to do a deal, to make your new environment laws with those guys,

Speaker 2 how does that kind of...

Speaker 1 No, and I think that's a deep problem for them.

Speaker 1 The lean, the Labor Environmental Action Network faction within the Labor Party,

Speaker 1 you know, they're very, very worried about. the perception or the reality of the bill being something that's super, super friendly for go-for-it type development.

Speaker 1 And

Speaker 1 the thing that I think is a tell is the way the Prime Minister is very close to Roger Cook, the WA Premier. He had a cabinet meeting, took everyone over to WA.

Speaker 1 I think they went to Geraldton or somewhere, I might have that wrong. Bunbury.
Bunbury, was it? And then they appeared. The Prime Minister appeared with the Premier of

Speaker 1 WA.

Speaker 1 So there is, and he's been very active in the background, I'm told, on all of this environmental legislation, because in WA, resources is everything.

Speaker 1 So that's the tension. And this is why I think actually

Speaker 1 this debate's frustrating because it is ultimately boiling down to one thing. It's the Prime Minister's call.
Who are you going to annoy? Are you going to annoy Jerome Laxall and your progressive

Speaker 1 base in your Labour caucus,

Speaker 1 all the people who care about the environment? Or are you going to annoy Roger Cook, your best mate, Labor Premier? That's the choice. In the end, he has to make that call.

Speaker 1 And until he sits down in a room and makes that call, the rest of this stuff is fun theatre, but it ain't mean much.

Speaker 2 I think you are so right. And we know that generally about the Prime Minister and his authority, but we also know it over these laws and what happened at the end of the last term, right?

Speaker 2 Where he literally just went, nah, we're not doing it. Nah.
not worth the political risk to me as the election neared.

Speaker 1 And they got really close, remember? He had Sarah Hanson-Young, the Green senator, in the room. They had a deal and then it got rolled.

Speaker 1 And Roger Cook kind of took credit for the rolling in the next day.

Speaker 1 But what's changed is they've both had elections. They're both very, very strong post-those elections.

Speaker 1 So they don't need to fear the backlash that they might have feared 12 months ago, which is when they were in that position. It was almost exactly this.
It was this week, 12 months ago, wasn't it?

Speaker 1 When that unfolded. So that's changed.
And the Prime Minister's under a lot of pressure from

Speaker 1 what I'd call progressive voters who are saying, what do you stand for?

Speaker 1 And I think that's the other danger here. You said there's a problem if they do a deal with the coalition.

Speaker 1 I think there's also a problem with this negotiating going on and on and on, because they're playing both sides. You could say quite

Speaker 1 cleverly, Murray Watt's doing a good job of keeping the door open to both sides.

Speaker 2 If parliamentary theatre matters to you.

Speaker 1 Yeah, but that also then says, so what do you believe in? What side does Labour actually believe in here in this debate? Or is it all just opportunistic?

Speaker 2 So brilliantly articulated. Because the roads are so, like, it's like sort of almost in terms of the way it would look to the public, sort of a hard left way or the hard right way.

Speaker 2 And if you could go either way as if, oh, it depends how it works out today, you kind of go, well, what are your values?

Speaker 1 So one road would see an end to native logging.

Speaker 1 native forest logging.

Speaker 2 Which Labor has said they don't want to do.

Speaker 1 And it would also require some kind of recognition and I think they've given a bit of a concession here to the Greens of fossil fuel companies having to identify their emissions when they get approval.

Speaker 1 So that's one road. The other road is neither of those things happen and you have a much more friendly to resources type result.

Speaker 1 And the government, you know, there is a view that actually for housing and getting more approvals for people to build homes, you need that stuff to happen fast. So they'll have a story to sell there.

Speaker 1 But that's what we're looking at here. And if you keep playing both sides off, you start to go, well, what is this government about? Is it just the numbers in the Senate or do they believe something?

Speaker 2 Yes, that's right. So that is, I think, fundamentally at the heart of their problem.
Just in terms of some of the sticking points, just a bit of detail. Don't worry, everyone.

Speaker 2 We're not going to go too heavy on the wonky stuff, but just a bit.

Speaker 2 You mentioned the native

Speaker 2 logging stuff.

Speaker 2 I mentioned also the forest logging that I don't think Labor wants to do that and there's a reason for that and you know part of the sort of gift of being old and you're in this category too you're even older than me I want to be quite clear about that.

Speaker 2 I just want everyone to know that but part of it is history right now when when has Labor messed with native logging and it's come back to bite them. Well, I'll help you out.

Speaker 2 Mark Latham was leader, the man that they have to have a special plaque for now, at the 2004 election, which I covered. I was in Canberra and

Speaker 2 he announces this ban on native logging in Tasmania and the CFMEU forestry division goes nuts. They advocate a vote for Howard.
Like this stuff

Speaker 1 Well, there's a long memory there for this topic.

Speaker 2 It hurts them on their worker base too. You know what I mean? Like that's people wonder.

Speaker 2 They have to marry Labor, not only their environment lefty base, which they have, and although it's splintered to the Greens, I believe, significantly over the years, but also their kind of working-class union base.

Speaker 2 And there is a conflict there. So, who do you think the Prime Minister is going to side with in that? Well, to me, it's a no-brainer.
He will definitely go down the worker union. Am I right?

Speaker 2 I think so, too. I mean,

Speaker 2 that's his whole shtick, right? So, they've given a little concession to the Greens, but come on, that's not good enough for the Greens, is it?

Speaker 1 Well, the problem with the deal, as I understand it, stands now to the Greens, is uh an end to that kind of logging and this is really this really only matters in two states because the rest of the country has already moved away from this we're talking tasmania and new south wales the the bit that the greens will struggle to accept is that it would be over a three-year period there'd be a three-year period and then it would come into force and the it is that forestry would no longer be exempted yes from these environmental protection standards and rules that's the it now That can't happen then, right?

Speaker 1 Well, it means that they then, yeah, it basically shuts down those activities and it affects a whole bunch of workers.

Speaker 1 But the Greens will fear that in that three-year window, they'll go nuts and go for broke.

Speaker 1 The industry will go crazy and just log every tree it can find

Speaker 1 and that it's too long a period.

Speaker 2 So the opposition's calling for a series of demands.

Speaker 2 They want to water down the powers of the new environment agency, scrap emissions reporting requirements and clarify if if the minister will retain final say on major projects, right?

Speaker 2 They're the things they're pushing for. Apparently there's more as well that we don't even know about, but that's the stuff they've publicly shared.

Speaker 2 In terms of some of it, like the scrapping the emissions reporting requirements. I don't even think business cares too much about that because they kind of have to report anyway.

Speaker 2 So it's just like, it's a bit of paperwork. And I imagine if you're a big business, that's annoying.
But also you've got an entire department that just puts out paperwork.

Speaker 1 You're doing it already. Right? Yeah, yeah.
I think

Speaker 1 that one Labor probably doesn't need to

Speaker 1 You know, they can give that away probably.

Speaker 1 If they were in this world of doing a deal with the coalition, they won't do the emissions reporting bit because they'll be able to say to their people, look, we do it in the safeguard mechanism, this other policy area, and we have other ways for monitoring of all of this stuff.

Speaker 1 So

Speaker 1 they'll be okay with that bit. The really hard bit is the level of...
intervention that a minister has in a project and how quickly that intervention gets triggered.

Speaker 1 The minerals people and some of the business people pointing out that there's a lot of projects that would get knocked on the head much more quickly under certain kinds of governments and they're nervous about having that in legislation.

Speaker 1 So that bit's, I think, a genuinely tricky, crunchy piece of negotiation if the government wants to go down the road with the coalition.

Speaker 2 And again, we return to the that will be hard for them to go down the road with the coalition because of the way the coalition is currently operating.

Speaker 2 Look, I just want to reflect a bit on the way that the week might play out. Look, I'm making a prediction here, but I'm just going to do it.
So we're Monday, question time,

Speaker 2 what strategy will be used, what questions will be asked. I think the coalition has decided that exploiting the role of Chris Bowen

Speaker 2 at the, you know, doing this negotiating role for the next UN climate conference, the COP,

Speaker 2 is fertile ground. And

Speaker 2 I think it's a slow burn, but they've got a point. I'll explain.
Not that I'm saying you shouldn't do the job. That's not my point.
This is the point it's coming.

Speaker 2 Energy prices are such a problem to the government, and they are. People are frustrated by them.

Speaker 2 They might grudgingly still support the government over the opposition, but that doesn't mean they're not irritated by their energy prices at the same time, and the transition is a big problem for them.

Speaker 2 Chris Bowen, having this kind of role, which is very climate internationally focused, can be really exploited to suggest his eyes off the ball of energy prices.

Speaker 2 Now, I'm not endorsing the view that he can't do two things and I think he's pretty competent and probably can do two things, and that there's a relationship between the two anyway.

Speaker 2 But I think that's going to be the strategy in question time in terms of

Speaker 2 what's going on here. And in that sense, I wonder why the government let themselves in on that vulnerability

Speaker 2 just because Chris Bowen wanted that job? Or like, I'm kind of surprised that they've even opened that door.

Speaker 1 Look, I'm not, let's see, let's see how pungent that is because Chris Bowen's been a punching bag for the Coalition for three years now.

Speaker 1 They love talking about him. Their audience lights up.

Speaker 1 He serves a marvellous purpose for the coalition and has since the beginning of the government.

Speaker 2 Yeah, and this gives an extra gift for it.

Speaker 1 It gives us an extra kick, but I don't think it's a new thing necessarily. This is, to be honest, a consolation prize for Chris Bowen.
He wanted the cop really badly.

Speaker 1 And the world where Australia had won the COP would have been much more difficult for the government because you and I would have spent 12 months talking about the big event that's coming, what it means, whether we're doing enough as a country, are we serious, are we taking the piss?

Speaker 1 It would have been endless, endless debate. And the government would have been sitting there looking like that was their primary focus instead of energy bills, cost of living.

Speaker 1 In other words, I think a rerun of the voice setup. Yes, so this is a

Speaker 2 better outcome than that.

Speaker 1 For the government, this is a much better outcome than they would say.

Speaker 1 For people who thought we should actually step up and host these things, it's a terrible outcome. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Speaker 2 And there is a case for that.

Speaker 2 That's not to say there is an occasion for that, but we're talking about the retail politics, the way it's sold, the way it's covered in the tabloid papers, the way TalkBack Radio talks about it.

Speaker 1 And so, yeah, Chris Bowen's now got this special role. What is he? President for negotiations.

Speaker 1 Great, so he can do that.

Speaker 1 And I just don't think the damage, the damage, if you want to call it that, that Chris Bowen does

Speaker 1 with the coalition using him as the punching bag, I don't think that's like, it's already there. It's baked into the pie.
The polls are what they are.

Speaker 1 I don't know that it moves the dial that much, but it'll be a good talking point for them. They'll remind us every time he gets on the plane to

Speaker 1 whatever Sherpa's meeting, build-up, Mark III every time, you know, and the tabloid stories, the cost of his travel to do these things.

Speaker 2 You can see it, right? Like, you know, you can write the stories before they've even happened, seriously. Look, just final thoughts from us.
I'll start, just because I'm like watching this closely.

Speaker 2 The Barnaby Joyce steak nights happening. Is it steaks?

Speaker 1 Steak dinner.

Speaker 2 Yeah, I think he's going to try and have a dinner with Pauline Hanson. No proper invite yet.
Who knows?

Speaker 2 I think

Speaker 2 they're going to have some sort of meeting is what I hear

Speaker 2 and he's gonna make a decision by the end of the year now of the time frame so couldn't he just

Speaker 1 happen

Speaker 1 this week you never know he just happened to be in front of a camera and a microphone this morning and got this question about have you had the dinner are you gonna stay in the party I mean

Speaker 1 the poor guy he's been in this building and he keeps wanting into corridors where there are cameras and microphones I know it's just such a coincidence happenstance Happenstance.

Speaker 2 It happens all the time. And that's it for politics now for today, Jacob.
Always good to be in the studio with you.

Speaker 1 All the best. Thank you for having me.

Speaker 2 And there's plenty more to come this week. It's a roller coaster week coming up ahead of us.
Like, we really don't know what's going to happen. So very exciting.

Speaker 2 Tomorrow I've got Claire Armstrong on the pod with me. We will tell you everything we possibly know.
The party room at abc.net.au is where you send voice notes with questions for Fran and I.

Speaker 2 I'll see you tomorrow.