Wildfires, Insurance, and Planning for Disaster

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Speaker 2 Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making better decisions. I'm Maria Konakoma.

Speaker 5 And I'm Nate Silver.

Speaker 5 Today on the show, we'll talk about the ongoing wildfires in Los Angeles, and we'll take a listener question about Elon Musk, the river, and the village.

Speaker 2 All right, let's get into it.

Speaker 2 Before we get into the wildfires, you know, really serious, weighty topic, incredibly important,

Speaker 2 let's talk about something a little bit lighter. Nate, you just got back from a trip to Tokyo and Seoul.
So you were halfway around the world.

Speaker 5 Yeah, I don't know if I'm 15. We had this debate.
My partner partner and I are like, can you really be like 15 hours ahead? Doesn't that mean like 11 hours behind or 9? Can't even be the fucking math.

Speaker 5 But yeah, I'm a little guy, a little bit of the lag, as we say.

Speaker 2 Welcome back to New York.

Speaker 2 And we hope that your jet lag will

Speaker 2 evaporate soon enough. But tell us a little bit about that trip, just because I think it's absolutely fascinating.

Speaker 2 Two great cities,

Speaker 2 such a fascinating part of the world, but also one where you had to make a lot of travel decisions, right? A lot of risky decisions.

Speaker 5 Yeah, I mean, so one thing is, so first of all, I love both cities. We were lucky enough to have

Speaker 5 a good Korean-American friend that we traveled with and caught up with another friend in Tokyo. So we had

Speaker 5 to help got,

Speaker 5 dude. No, you wouldn't know the other friends.

Speaker 2 Okay.

Speaker 2 Not our mutual poker friend who lives in Tokyo.

Speaker 5 No, no degenerate poker playing this. Our degeneracy was merely no pachinko parlors.

Speaker 5 We just ate a lot. You know, everyone's like, oh, I went to Asia and or Europe and actually I lost weight because I walked.
So it's like, nah.

Speaker 2 I always find that that's bullshit. I'm like, oh, just give me food.

Speaker 5 I mean, they are like, they are in some ways, like Japan is kind of a more

Speaker 5 risk averse society than other countries. You know, I'm not sure if I want to, you know, as Korea is in certain ways too, but like,

Speaker 5 so apart from the food, which was wonderful,

Speaker 5 seeing these two countries back to back, where on the one hand,

Speaker 5 if you look at the per capita GDP of Japan, this may not be exactly precisely right, but like it's like basically the same as it was in the 90s. The country has not really grown for 40 years now.

Speaker 2 That's crazy.

Speaker 5 Whereas Korea has now per capita-wise, caught up with Japan or surpassed it

Speaker 5 and feels more modern in certain ways. I mean, certainly, you know, Tokyo is a very comfortable place to live, but,

Speaker 5 you know, sololy the English they speak tends to be a little bit better.

Speaker 5 It's a little bit more modern in different ways. I think Korean culture to make very broad Waikai stereotypes.
I mean, this is like emerging, right?

Speaker 5 You have like all these Oscar Award-winning films and the art we saw was interesting. And,

Speaker 5 you know, it's a culture that's gone from being for a long time a very poor country to being relatively wealthy in a hurry.

Speaker 5 What's interesting now is that both countries, but especially Korea, have these very low birth rates, which is that's something we've talked about before.

Speaker 5 I guess neither of us have kids, so maybe we're part of the problem, right? But like,

Speaker 5 I don't know, just again, dumb wake-up observations to arrive in this country that just all of a sudden found itself as being like kind of a big player in the region and on the world stage.

Speaker 5 But now it's like, yeah, I think we're comfortable here. And maybe that's enough.
It's just, it's just interesting.

Speaker 5 I'm not sure how to how to like put this without having too many stereotypes, I suppose. Yeah.

Speaker 5 But seeing the contrast back to back was fascinating to me.

Speaker 2 I'm sure it was. I'm sure it was.
So I've actually never been to Seoul, but I did last week watch Maybe Happy Ending on Broadway, which is a play about two robots in

Speaker 2 South Korea who end up falling in love and taking a trip to Jeju Island. So bonus shout out to poker players who like to play the Jeju series.
There is a poker scene in Korea as well.

Speaker 2 So

Speaker 2 I felt like I was missing out on your trip. So I had to vicariously make it happen on Broadway.

Speaker 5 Yeah, we did travel only to those two destinations, Seoul and Tokyo.

Speaker 5 So it's a little bit weird after a long year with elections and the podcast getting started, whatever else, to like relax by going to these gigantic cities.

Speaker 5 But I think it was actually, I think we, our group, just the three of us,

Speaker 5 we had planned maybe go to Kyoto or maybe we'll go somewhere else in Korea or both. And like, I think, I think I advocate for for having fewer

Speaker 2 destinations, right?

Speaker 5 Yes.

Speaker 2 I'm actually with you. I think this is a good, you know, we did our GTO travel episode.
And I think this is actually what I find. I think travel, you know, is, is different for different people.

Speaker 2 But one of my travel tips is don't put too many destinations on there.

Speaker 2 And I actually prefer to go to just one place and.

Speaker 2 and stay there. And I know every single person's different, but for me, I think that's like max ED for a trip that you'll really get a lot out of.
On that note, let's talk about the LA fires.

Speaker 2 Obviously, you know, much more serious, much heavier topic,

Speaker 2 but I think it's a really important one for us to discuss because obviously there are so many topics of risky decision-making, risk perception, how we act on risky information.

Speaker 2 And I think we want to talk about it from two different perspectives, right?

Speaker 2 One, and this is something we've talked about on the show before, but I think it's incredibly relevant and kind of relevant for the future and for the entire country, not just for California, which is the insurance angle, right?

Speaker 2 And the future of the insurance industry, how to think about risk from that perspective, both as the insurance company, but also as the individual purchasing property, purchasing or electing not to purchase insurance.

Speaker 2 And then I'd also like to talk about kind of the individual psychological risk perceptions here, not just the insurance component, but like, you know, what happens if you're in one of these zones?

Speaker 2 How do you handle risk? How do you respond? I think that those are

Speaker 2 two

Speaker 2 related, but distinct areas. And I think that both are really interesting and

Speaker 2 core risky decision metrics. So let's start with the insurance angle.
We've talked about this before.

Speaker 2 In California, not just in California, all over the country, you know, Florida, some other states, insurers have been pulling out of regions where the risk of disasters, natural disasters, has risen.

Speaker 2 And that is a lot of different parts of the country.

Speaker 2 And in the last few years, insurers have started using different models, right? Because insurance is a backwards-looking business in general, right?

Speaker 2 You look at risks and then you try to kind of extrapolate. And that's not working anymore with climate change, with all of these things happening.
And so especially, I don't know. whether all

Speaker 2 insurance companies are doing this, but I know that a lot of insurance companies and a lot of the insurers in California have started using AI and other things to try to change their risk models to take into account the fact that the world is changing.

Speaker 2 And they even flagged the Palisades as an incredibly dangerous area.

Speaker 2 And so some of those, you can't get insurance anymore. So yeah, let's talk about it.
Let's let's hear some of your thoughts on this process and on what it means.

Speaker 5 Yeah, so in addition to the challenges with doing any type of statistical modeling, which is always more difficult than people want to let on,

Speaker 5 if you have disaster risk that's affected by climate change, then you don't really have an empirical baseline, right? You're probably doing more

Speaker 5 elaborate forms of modeling, or maybe you're actually trying to do some climatology or whatever else, right? But it's a lot of like educated guesswork, I guess I'd say, right?

Speaker 5 From what little research I'm done on,

Speaker 5 you know, what's the effect of climate change on particular types of disasters, I think it's not quite so linear as you might assume. It's probably bad.

Speaker 5 But, you know, some of the models say, for example, that the hurricanes, there are fewer hurricanes, but they're more severe. Probably worse net from like a climate modeling perspective, right?

Speaker 5 To have fewer, but more devastating storms. And we had some this year

Speaker 5 is probably worse. But, you know, if you're guessing, you get into different problems.
You also get in the issue that like,

Speaker 5 it's not like a thing where like, I don't know, if you have like some home insurance or like, oh, my home gets broken into or whatever, like, that's more stochastic and random. Not perfectly.

Speaker 5 There's probably some correlation when there's some gang of, I don't know, bandits or thieves or whatever, but like, um,

Speaker 5 but you know, if this disaster all comes at once and all of, well, not all of Los Angeles, we should emphasize, by the way, LA is a very, it's a huge area.

Speaker 2 It's a large area.

Speaker 5 I mean, I was very briefly in LA on the way home. And,

Speaker 5 you know, we were in the part of LA, which wasn't on fire,

Speaker 5 but it's a very large area and certainly a little, you know, expensive area too. And so, so, you know, one issue is like the modeling issue.

Speaker 2 So, yes. So we have, we have these issues of modeling.
But even with those problems, I think that something that you just started mentioning is

Speaker 2 when you have risks that are highly correlated, right? It's very, very difficult to

Speaker 2 try to figure out, okay, how how many how much should I charge in premiums?

Speaker 2 And in some place like California, you also have another thing where there's regulation, right, where insurance companies are required to have a certain number of reserves.

Speaker 2 Until very recently, they couldn't raise their premiums as much as their models said they needed to raise their premiums. So instead, they just said, okay, fine, like fuck it.

Speaker 2 We're not going to insure these places. Like, you can't renew your insurance.
You can't, you can't do anything. And that puts a lot of people in very difficult situations.

Speaker 2 And the areas that are burning in LA, sure, you have the Palisades with some, you know, incredibly expensive housing, some of the most expensive real estate in the country but then you also have parts of you know altadena and other parts of la where there are lots of people who are poor who have been there forever um and you know what in the world happens right when you can no longer win either the insurance says we won't insure you or the premiums are so expensive that you're like i can't afford this anymore um what do you do and there are families that chose like last year right i'm not going to renew my insurance coverage and then this happens

Speaker 5 yeah look i mean um

Speaker 5 this has been in the news a lot

Speaker 5 because of like these beautiful, glamorous properties in like outside Malibu and the Palisades burning, for example. But like, yeah, it's affected all types of areas of LA.
And LA is like more of a

Speaker 5 more of a middle class kind of working class town than I think some people realize, really, right? The average per capita income isn't that high.

Speaker 5 You know, look, so yeah, there are these three issues like we mentioned with insurance. One is that the modeling itself is difficult and involves a moving target.

Speaker 5 A second is that there's some degree, maybe less so with like home insurance, but some degree of adverse selection is a term where if you're someone who buys insurance and not everybody does, then maybe you're more of a risk than the model would let on, right?

Speaker 5 You're buying insurance. I mean, the analogy I give is like,

Speaker 5 if you have like an all-you-can-eat buffet, right?

Speaker 5 There is adverse selection for who comes and eats at at the all-you-can-eat buffet, right?

Speaker 5 Probably if you don't, you don't want to have an all-you-can-eat buffet set up outside like a sumo wrestling tournament, for example.

Speaker 2 That's another

Speaker 5 yeah, and it also means that if, you know, for some people, the expected value of insurance, I mean, you know, this is complicated.

Speaker 5 On the one hand, it has to do with like hedging catastrophic risk and diminishing marginal returns, right?

Speaker 5 Like if your home is worth $2 million and your net worth is $4 million, so it's half your net worth, right?

Speaker 5 Well, then probably in principle, there is negative expected value for most forms of insurance in terms of like the pure dollar amount, right? The risk of your house burning is supposedly lower than

Speaker 5 the premium that you get from it.

Speaker 5 But, you know, you'd much rather pay the small amount than

Speaker 5 have to lose half your net worth in one inferno, basically.

Speaker 5 But yeah, the third issue is that California

Speaker 5 is a state with lots of, I wouldn't even say

Speaker 5 well-intended regulations necessarily. I mean, I don't think it's the most economically literate state, frankly,

Speaker 5 or the policymakers are especially smart, frankly.

Speaker 5 But, you know, based in a combination, including, by the way, some of these are things that like

Speaker 5 are ballot measures.

Speaker 5 passed by, you know, it's a state with a bunch of referendum, right? Everything goes to direct democracy. People like me might think this is kind of wonderful in the abstract.

Speaker 5 It's ruled by true democracy and not ruled by the expert class, et cetera. But like, it creates issues.

Speaker 5 I believe the rule is that basically any insurance increase has to be appointed by an insurance commissioner in California, which is like a regulated industry, instead of kind of letting the market take care of it.

Speaker 5 So yeah,

Speaker 5 these insurance companies are correct. I think to say that if you have limits on what we can charge and we now have negative expected value, then fuck you.

Speaker 5 We're not going to offer insurance in the first place. And that's

Speaker 5 a rational reaction, I think, on top of the other risks.

Speaker 2 It is completely rational. I mean, you have to remember that insurance companies are also businesses, right? They're not pro bono organizations.

Speaker 2 This is not like a federal relief fund that is there to catch you.

Speaker 2 It is something that...

Speaker 2 you know, even if the returns are low, you need some positive returns. It's not a business that's going to be a money-losing business.
And so you understand that.

Speaker 2 But then you end up in this situation where like, what the fuck do you do? Right.

Speaker 2 If I am a person who, you know, has always lived in California and who lives in California and I, you know, my house burned down, what do I do? Right.

Speaker 2 Like it puts people in these impossible situations and it's, it's horrible. Like I, you know, I'm just a little bit of.

Speaker 2 editorializing, but like we shouldn't be in a situation where people are, you know, sharing GoFundMe campaigns for everyone, right? Like that, that shouldn't be the case.

Speaker 2 There should be, especially if you're somewhere like california where you know this is a thing there they should figure out a way to make this work or you know or not and just not let people live there you know that it's kind of one of these one of these

Speaker 2 very very stark contrasts

Speaker 5 yeah look i mean um there is a backup state program called fair f-a-i-r um

Speaker 5 the mechanics are a little bit complicated.

Speaker 5 It looks like if it runs, I mean, you know, you can buy a premium, right? It's not particularly cheap.

Speaker 5 If fair overall runs out of money, I think there's some pocket they're taking from private insurers who are selling insurance in California, which ultimately makes insurance more expensive to sell in California.

Speaker 5 And so, you know, it's one of these other perverse incentives. But

Speaker 5 there is that option at least available up to some limit, I think up to $3 million worth of coverage. So let me be...

Speaker 5 a little bit of the turd in the punch bowl for a second, right?

Speaker 5 You don't see a lot of efforts to like

Speaker 5 be honest and forthright about the fire risk here, right? With the way different properties are built and the amount of distance between, for example, the amount of distance between this like

Speaker 5 shrubbery, what's called chaparol or chaparol? How do you say that?

Speaker 2 Yeah, I don't know. That's one of those words that I read and never say out loud.

Speaker 5 So I've never said that word out loud, have I?

Speaker 2 No, I have good reader syndrome. There are so many words that I pronounce.

Speaker 2 Chaparol. Chaparol?

Speaker 5 Let me.

Speaker 5 chaparral

Speaker 5 chaparral chaparral i don't know if i like how that ai bot

Speaker 5 said that um

Speaker 5 but you have a lot of this kind of shrubbery and and these are these are not like forests per se that are catching on fire right i mean if you've been to california um maybe you get a little bit of this in vegas though not quite right but you have this kind of dry bushy area right that's not super dense but where fires tend to spread pretty fast, right?

Speaker 5 They're not doing a lot of cultivation. You can do controlled burns in areas that are fire-risked.
There is reluctance to do that.

Speaker 5 Whenever you do one of those things, you have to go through five years of regulation and environmental studies and whatever else, right? But there's not a lot of honesty about

Speaker 5 the way these properties are designed to mitigate fire risk. And maybe there will be more now, right? But like, you know, and that kind of puts homeowners at risk.
And so,

Speaker 5 you know, so if your your home can

Speaker 5 be covered by insurance, then that can create

Speaker 5 a moral hazard. It's the other famous insurance term along with Edward Selection, right? Where like, if I am covering, I mean, the classic example is like the bank bailouts, right? Where

Speaker 5 if the government steps in and prevents whichever companies, Morgan Stanley, I don't want to accuse particular companies.

Speaker 5 I'm sure all the, all the, all the big Wall Street firms had like somethings involved, right? But if they're going to come and bail you out, if you fuck up,

Speaker 5 then you have an incentive to like make riskier bets, right? And I don't think homeowners individually are

Speaker 5 quite as calculating as like the banks might be, but like I almost say as a rule that like if you create a rule where there is financial upside to basically what we what we term like an exploitative strategy in poker, right?

Speaker 5 then people will exploit that in the capitalist system. People will build right up to the edges kind of figuratively or literally.

Speaker 5 And so that can be a problem too, potentially.

Speaker 2 Yeah, I think this is a good kind of pivot point to looking at this from the individual side as opposed to from the from the insurance company side, because people, you know, when we've we talk about this all the time.

Speaker 2 People are not rational when they're evaluating risks. And they're especially not rational when it's like a personal thing, like, you know, oh, I've always lived in this area, right? Or,

Speaker 2 you know, I, you know, I want to do this. And sometimes they're gamblers, right?

Speaker 2 Sometimes they're actually risk-seeking in this particular case because they kind of take the gamble that, oh, sure, like there's a risk of a fire, but like my house isn't going to burn down because it hasn't burned down for, you know, however many years.

Speaker 2 And there are properties. So one of the, one of the places that burned, one of the businesses that burned down in LA is Real Inn, where I've been, you've probably been there too.

Speaker 2 It's on the way, kind of on the road to Malibu.

Speaker 2 There's only one road, by the way, which is also not great in terms of natural disaster and like trying to get away and trying to get the fuck out of there when shit's burning, which is why people have had to abandon cars and bad things have happened.

Speaker 2 But Real Inn burned down and it was there for, I think, over 35 years, right? That specific business.

Speaker 2 But if you've been there for 35 years, you think, oh, well, yes, there are fire risks in Malibu, blah, blah, blah. But We've always been fine, right? So we're going to just continue to be fine.

Speaker 2 People do have this tendency to

Speaker 2 be ostrich-like, right? Ostriches are the ones who bury their hand in the sand. Do I have the right analogy? And

Speaker 2 you want to, when it's convenient to ignore these things, you want to ignore it because you want to be comfortable. Like, you don't want to make the tough decision of saying, Okay, you know what?

Speaker 2 We need to sell our house and we need to move to a different part of the state. We need to move all the way out of California.
Like, people don't want to make those hard decisions.

Speaker 2 And so, instead of doing that, they're just going to fudge the risk in their mind and take something which to us looks like you know an irrational or very gambly decision which might not actually align with their risk preferences right i doubt that all the people who had houses that burned down were risk-seeking some of them might not have cared right like some of those if you're very wealthy and you just say okay if my house burns down fine i'll just rebuild right like that's that's one way of looking at it but i'm talking about like the lower middle class people who who aren't thinking that way they might appear risk-seeking because of that choice but in their minds they're not right?

Speaker 2 They just

Speaker 2 they

Speaker 2 do they miscalculate willfully, if that makes sense.

Speaker 5 Yeah, I mean, there's a famous story from my book where Elon Musk sells his first company, buys a McLaren sports car, which is worth like a million bucks or something, and then crashes it on the way to the pitch median, and he doesn't have insurance on this car, right?

Speaker 5 In part because he, I think, thought he was invincible, but also he might say, hey, look, I just sold this company for $17 million or whatever it was, and this car is worth $1 million.

Speaker 5 So like, I am far far enough along that

Speaker 5 diminishing returns curve, right, where I don't kind of care either way about a million dollars, right?

Speaker 5 I'm not going to pay because insurance, again, ought to be in principle negative expected value in a narrow sense if you don't account for diminishing returns, right?

Speaker 5 And he's at the other end of that spectrum where it's like, okay, well, who cares, right? I'll just wire another million bucks to the McLaren dealership and buy a new car, right?

Speaker 5 And it doesn't really affect me much either way. And so like,

Speaker 5 so I don't think it's necessarily, I want to be very careful, right? But like if

Speaker 5 having your home destroyed by an earthquake or a flood or a fire is something where you'd make out

Speaker 2 okay,

Speaker 2 right?

Speaker 5 Notwithstanding the psychological damage and the damage to the artifacts and the belongings and your pets and whatever else, right? And you're safe.

Speaker 5 Like it may not be rational to buy insurance, right?

Speaker 2 Yeah, I think, well, that's why I try to distinguish between the people who can afford to lose it and the people who can't. And I'm wondering if

Speaker 2 as these things, because we know with risk perception, right, so much of it is personal experience and what has typically happened to you or to people you know.

Speaker 2 And I wonder as kind of these risks are spreading to communities that, you know, before thought that they were relatively safe, as we have so many properties that have been destroyed, so many people that have been displaced, if that's going to start changing, right?

Speaker 2 Like I'm in Las Vegas right now, and I've heard multiple conversations around Las Vegas about, you know, is Las Vegas going to see an even greater inflow of Californians than it has in recent years after this, right?

Speaker 2 Are people going to actually change their kind of their risk preferences based on the newly available data?

Speaker 2 There are some Hollywood executives who are starting to look at building studios here, right? There are a lot of people who are saying, okay, you know, this might have been the tipping point.

Speaker 2 And I think that that's also interesting to observe and to see what will happen.

Speaker 5 And we'll be right back after this break.

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Speaker 5 One thing I think you sometimes see happen is that when you have these tumultuous and tragic events, they

Speaker 5 accelerate processes that were already underway.

Speaker 5 So one example is that you have the pandemic, actually a bunch of these with the pandemic, right? You have the pandemic.

Speaker 5 People stop going to the movies and then the movies recover, but to some substantially lower baseline. Right.
And people are just kind of calculating, well, you know what?

Speaker 5 You have so many ways to watch a movie in your beautiful home theater or whatever set up that like it's just a special occasion kind of thing now.

Speaker 5 And like that's kind of a permanent change that maybe happened in two years when it would have happened in 10 years instead.

Speaker 5 Look, California has been losing population. It's going to lose.
I think it's lost an electoral vote and will lose more probably at the next redistricting process.

Speaker 5 So in a relative sense, relative to the rest of the country, it's no longer a growth state exactly. You have movement all over the West, right? To Nevada,

Speaker 5 to Idaho, to Colorado, also like Texas and Florida, which are fairly good substitutes for it, right? So yeah, I know. I don't know how many people have actually been put out of their home.

Speaker 5 But you can imagine, I mean, I don't know. When I've been to

Speaker 5 California recently, I mean, it feels like a little bit sleepier, right? I don't think New Yorkers have the jealousy of California that they kind of once did.

Speaker 5 Maybe you do have vice versa a little bit. I mean, you do have Silicon Valley that is still booming, at least as an industry, right? I don't know as a town, but like,

Speaker 5 you know, that's still attracting talent from like all around the world. And with AI being another potential boom, then that seems not to be going away very much.
But like, but yeah, I don't know.

Speaker 5 I don't think I'd want to live in.

Speaker 2 No, it's definitely changed the way that I look about it, that I, that I look at it, that I think about it, because there was part of me that always thought, you know, oh, you know, maybe at some point I'll live in LA.

Speaker 2 And at this point, I'm like, no fucking way, right? Like, I'm, you know, why, why would I do that? Certainly would never buy property there

Speaker 2 because,

Speaker 2 you know, I think that the risk reward, I don't think it's a rational decision right now.

Speaker 2 And a lot of people are going to disagree with that because everyone's risk preferences are different and everyone's decision matrix is different. And I think that

Speaker 2 that's important.

Speaker 2 Right now we're talking about personal EV calculations. One final thing that I wanted to talk about is the actual experience of fires, right?

Speaker 2 Because there are people who died and some of those deaths couldn't.

Speaker 2 be prevented, but others were because of just frankly, absolutely asinine decisions where like you decide that you're gonna pick up a hose and protect your home from the fire

Speaker 2 which is endangering you endangering firefighters you know that's it's when people say evacuate you're supposed to evacuate and I think you know looking from the side you say that is really asinine but for some people if they've never experienced a fire right if they've never seen how quickly fires can spread it might have seemed rational they might have been like oh the fire is a block like it'll it'll be fine right I have time and what you don't understand because you don't have kind of the experience the visceral experience of it and your brain can't comprehend it when people are telling you go now is just how quickly fires can spread like it is insane you remember um last year we had a fire in our backyard in new york when there was an explosion in the middle of the night of batteries and of the of a restaurant and our building almost burned down but i just remember from the moment of the explosion to like the fires being taller than our windows which is for a fourth floor apartment.

Speaker 2 It was seconds, right? And I was like, holy shit, like it went from what's going on to we need to get out right now in like under a minute. And so I think that, and that's not even a wildfire, right?

Speaker 2 That was a very different situation. That was an electrical fire.
But it's, I think that people's risk in the moment,

Speaker 2 you know, in that hot situation, your risk assessment can be off and you can say, oh, I have time. I can do this.
I want to protect my home.

Speaker 2 And so you just lose perspective that actually the only thing that matters is your life and the life of firefighters.

Speaker 2 And so people make just really, really stupid decisions, which is why I always say like, you need to, in hot situations, this is like poker too, right?

Speaker 2 And like being on, being on tilt in poker, like you need to think of it in advance, like, how am I going to react to this situation?

Speaker 2 Because in the moment, you're going to make a bad decision if you don't know what you're going to do, if you haven't thought it through.

Speaker 2 you might think that you'll be able to think clearly but you can't right when you're emotional when you're stressed um clear thinking goes out the window unless you already have a plan of action yeah and it kind of happens fast i was trying to explain to someone the other day who has not played much poker about how you know if you're playing a five ten

Speaker 5 no limit game right and like um and the effective stacks are like five thousand dollars well how do you ever get kind of like the whole five thousand dollars involved when there's only the $15 and blinds to pick up initially, right?

Speaker 5 Maybe it's not the best analogy, but the point is that like danger can happen quite quickly

Speaker 5 and you don't necessarily have a moment to like kind of catch your breath, right? I mean, there are different cases with

Speaker 5 hurricanes, which is something that

Speaker 5 we deal with a little bit more on the East Coast.

Speaker 5 although not in New York like we would in like Florida or something like that. Like there you do have some

Speaker 5 advanced warning, right?

Speaker 5 It's not like the hurricanes come exactly out of nowhere, but you know, but you have the risk that like, you know, if you evacuate people too early in New Orleans, when Hurricane Katrina hit, there had been kind of a long history of New Orleans

Speaker 5 having good luck with storms that were bad, but not as bad as feared or forecasted, right? I think, you know, I think the literature, I wrote this in the first book of mine more than 10 years ago.

Speaker 5 I think the literature is pretty consistent that there are real consequences to false alarms for any type of natural disaster and people really feel invincible of, like, oh, last time you said it was going to be bad.

Speaker 5 Yeah. And it wasn't right.

Speaker 2 Yeah.

Speaker 2 And I think that it creates this, it's kind of, you know, coming full circle to what we were talking about, it creates this perverse incentive where you personally feel more invulnerable than you should because you've gotten away with it in the past, right?

Speaker 2 Like California, well, my house hasn't burned yet, right? You've told me to evacuate before and everything was fine. So I'm just going to be comfortable and it's all going to be fine.

Speaker 2 And once again, head in the sand because that's just,

Speaker 2 that's easier, right? That's, that's the path of least resistance. And, you know, it's scary to just leave and to do it quickly.
Do you have a, do you have a go bag, Nate, by the way? Or no?

Speaker 5 No.

Speaker 5 Yeah. I, I mean, I,

Speaker 5 um,

Speaker 5 maybe we should. I understand.

Speaker 2 I think, I think we should. Yeah.

Speaker 2 Um, we, yeah, um, we have, we have go bags. Um, and it's something that, you know, we thought through like, you know, because in New York, there have been situations.

Speaker 2 So like, obviously 9-11, where you think about like, you know, what happens if I need to get out of here? What happens if I need to get out of here on foot?

Speaker 2 Hurricane Sandy, you know, we lost power, had no cell phone reception. So after those experiences.

Speaker 2 I have thought a lot about, you know, go bags and the fact that this is something that you just need to be able to grab. And it should be light, right? There shouldn't be too much in it.

Speaker 2 Mine is like passport, copies of documents, cash. It's really important to have cash, even though we're turning towards a cashless world.

Speaker 2 But if, you know, if there's no connectivity, if you can't use Apple Pay, if, you know, if shit goes bad, like cash is actually an important thing to have.

Speaker 2 Laptop, right?

Speaker 2 When my apartment was threatened by fire last year, I grabbed my notebook because I write all my first drafts by hand.

Speaker 2 So, and I don't, you know, if that's lost, like, you know, huge chunks of my next book are lost. So, I grabbed that, you know, laptop, passport, um, and you're out of there, cell phone.

Speaker 2 Um, but I think that it's important to just figure out what are those things that you need immediately, and also the things that you can't replace, right?

Speaker 2 Like, if you have photographs, I have my grandmother's letters to her sister, which are you know handwritten. Um, it's their correspondence, and it's you know, the only thing I have left of her.

Speaker 2 So, like, I would grab that, even though it weighs a ton, right? It's not like a

Speaker 2 life-changing thing, but to me, it's something that like I could never replace. And that's really, really important.

Speaker 2 So I think that you have to, there's like a balance of obviously water, some bars, but you need to replace that stuff, right?

Speaker 2 Like some stuff goes bad in your go bag, you need to replace it constantly so that it stays fresh. And so it's a little bit of a pain in the ass, but once you have it, it's pretty easy.

Speaker 5 Yeah, I guess, I guess, I guess our main risk in New York is probably a

Speaker 5 terrorist attack. I mean, because with it, with the hurricane, you have some

Speaker 5 warning time, right? I mean, you can get severe summer weather in New York. The winds are, um, but yeah, the main risk, if we're being honest, is like

Speaker 5 some terror attack. And the fact that I live in Manhattan, right? You're kind of on, um,

Speaker 5 kind of on an island, right? There's only so many physical ways to like connect with the rest of the United States, right? Um, and so, and so that gets a little bit frightening, I suppose.

Speaker 2 Yeah, well, one of my friends who lives in Tribeca actually, um, after Sandy, they ended up buying um an in you one of those like inflatable boats so that they could,

Speaker 2 because also thinking about terrorist attacks, like what happens if all the roads are closed. So they like bought a little inflatable raft that they can take to the Hudson River and get out of there.

Speaker 2 And at first I laughed and then I was like, huh, should we get one of those? Right. Like

Speaker 2 how far do you want to take this? And obviously there's like a, you know, there's a full spectrum from no go bag whatsoever. I'm totally fine to prepper, right?

Speaker 2 And I've got a bunker that I paid for for that I'm going to go to. And like, I know exactly, you know, off grid what I'm going to do.
So there's, there's a whole lot of room in between.

Speaker 2 But I think that doing the bare minimum is a good thing to do. It's just that to me is like where I, where I come out rationally.
I did not end up buying an inflatable boat, by the way.

Speaker 2 You didn't? Okay. No, I do not have a boat.

Speaker 5 Inflatable is a little nitty.

Speaker 2 I don't know. I don't know.

Speaker 2 Yeah. So I do not have an inflatable boat.
By the way, that friend moved from Tribeca to LA and just and had to evacuate,

Speaker 2 was in one of the evacuation zones. So

Speaker 2 the inflatable boat is not very helpful over there.

Speaker 2 Yeah, so I think that these are all, these are all important decisions, something you have to think through for yourself, but it's something you do have to think through.

Speaker 2 I just want to make one last push. People do like to ignore things that are scary, that are inconvenient, that forces them to make difficult decisions.
Don't do that, right?

Speaker 2 And instead, like actually sit down and do a rational calculus, look at the numbers, look at the risk, and try to figure out if it's worth it or not. Right.
Yeah, you don't have to make a commitment.

Speaker 2 Right.

Speaker 5 You could say this is silly, the risk is low enough, and we're probably fucked anyway, or whatever, right? You can do that calculation and then decide not to, right?

Speaker 2 Yeah.

Speaker 2 But at least do the calculation, please.

Speaker 2 So, on that note, let's take a break and then let's take a listener question.

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Speaker 2 So we got a listener question from JM. And Nate, this listener question is directly about your work, right?

Speaker 5 Yeah, so Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy,

Speaker 2 is that who you say it, right? Yeah.

Speaker 5 Are Are meeting with top government officials

Speaker 5 and they also are trying to kind of formulate this quasi-official agency called Doge. It's an acronym for Department of Governmental Efficiency.

Speaker 2 And also a meme coin.

Speaker 5 And a meme coin.

Speaker 5 Elon's favorite meme coin, I think.

Speaker 5 And the question is, how do you integrate the river and the village?

Speaker 5 So if you have not read On the Edge, The Art of Risking Everything, published in 2024, but um these are my terms where the the the village is the you know east coast establishment risk-averse uh government uh at least when biden's in office right um government and academia and media right these are the people who are super concerned about COVID risk and the types of risk and they're you know they're the ones who are doing more speech policing and things like that right and they're kind of become like the liberal establishment the expert class right um whereas the river are the risk-taking degenerate types in finance and Silicon Valley, as well as the poker world and the gaming quote-unquote world, more general.

Speaker 5 But parts of the river have had an increase in their political power.

Speaker 2 So typically, you know, government seems more village-y, right? You know, old establishment, et cetera.

Speaker 2 But people like Musk and Ramaswamy are more from the river and are trying to inject some of those ideas into kind of old Washington. So how does that play out?

Speaker 2 How do we integrate the two together, right?

Speaker 2 How do you make the two

Speaker 2 mesh and how do you actually make it a productive thing as opposed to

Speaker 2 two sides entrenching against each other and polarizing even further, which is obviously one possible outcome?

Speaker 5 Yeah, I mean,

Speaker 5 you know, look, there's long been a conservative critique that there is a lot of waste, fraud, and abuse that taxpayers are on the hook for, which I'm relatively sympathetic toward.

Speaker 5 So, you know, I guess one critique I would have,

Speaker 5 and you see it in like this

Speaker 5 LA wildfire stuff, right? Where like,

Speaker 5 you know, they'll make.

Speaker 5 five accusations about how it's all the liberals fault, right? And I'm no fan of Gavin Newsome or governance in California in general, right?

Speaker 5 But then you actually kind of like check these and like maybe one of the five is basically true and one of the five is half true and the other three and a half are just deranged, right?

Speaker 5 There's a big deal about like, you know, the LA fire chief is like a lesbian and somehow this is like a DEI

Speaker 5 thing somehow for reasons I don't entirely understand, right? And you hear claims about like

Speaker 5 where are water tanks. I guess there is one water tank in Pacific Pacific Palisades that was up for repair, right? That seems not good.

Speaker 5 Seems like you probably want the repair time, you know, to be quicker than, oh, we'll get around to it at some point.

Speaker 5 But if you go and scrutinize these claims, you know, Noah Smith, the writer, the blogger, has a good rundown.

Speaker 5 And again, there are things, there are elements of it that have some degree kind of truth, but like it's not very precise, right?

Speaker 5 And, you know, there is this like duality in the river, the way I conceive it, where on the one hand, the river is supposed to be kind of like the money ballization of everything where it's calculating and and

Speaker 5 precise right on the other hand there is this like degenerate gambler side and elon in particular is someone who i mean look you gotta add to him he's who founded all these amazing businesses he's clearly doing something right including by the way being a co-founder of open ai um

Speaker 5 but not a guy who you'd say has like a lot of precision really right and like and like

Speaker 5 the giddiness of someone who's on a winning streak, right? I mean, they not only have won in all sorts of ways in terms of becoming wealthier and wealthier, right?

Speaker 5 But also now this faction of the river, again, I think the average person in the river probably is a moderate Democrat,

Speaker 5 but this faction has just had this kind of gigantic win. Clearly,

Speaker 5 you know, they were backing Trump and clearly they're going to have, I think, a fair amount of influence on Trump. It's already also bolstered

Speaker 5 Elon's net worth in certain ways, right? Even without kind of alleging anything untoward, right?

Speaker 5 His business are all subject to regulation. And if you have a more friendly regulator in office, it's probably worth something to you.

Speaker 5 So

Speaker 5 it's been disappointing to see this side of the river

Speaker 5 become the side that won, I guess. But, you know, but look, I mean, it's, you know, one message of the book is like, these people are actually not so rational

Speaker 5 necessarily, right?

Speaker 2 Yeah.

Speaker 2 No, that definitely is a message. And I think that from a psychological standpoint, you also have hit on something that is really important to remember as we see kind of these rivarians

Speaker 2 making their move on Washington, which is there is a hubris that comes from being on a winning streak, right? Oh, yeah.

Speaker 2 And that definitely makes you irrational, like that irrational exuberance, right? And a lot of bad shit happens from that. And to bring it all back down to kind of the poker level, right?

Speaker 2 Think about poker players who are on a hot streak, right? Who are running well, who are sun running in poker terms. And then, you know, they think they can't lose.

Speaker 2 I'm not going to I'm not going to mention the name of this player, but there was a player who

Speaker 2 went on this incredible streak a number of years ago and like just would would win everything and ended up winning, you know, a shit ton of money and just like couldn't lose.

Speaker 2 And people are like, oh my God, this is like the best player in the world. And then the sun run ended.
And I remember one specific stream, this was televised, where this player

Speaker 2 lost, not even a flip. Like it was just like lost an all-in and

Speaker 2 was behind and stayed behind, didn't hit the miracle card, had always hit the miracle card in the past and was, you know, just expecting it to happen. And it didn't.
And this was a huge hand.

Speaker 2 And he was out of the tournament. I can say it was a man, right? Because we know that 97 to 98% of

Speaker 2 the dealerships I don't want to put them on blast right now, but this is one of the, this is one of the, maybe another time. This was one of the, it was an epic meltdown.

Speaker 2 This person like got up from the table and threw the chips, like just threw the chips at the other player and at the dealer and stormed off. And I was like, holy shit, right?

Speaker 2 Like this is someone who is not used to losing. And when you, when you're at a poker table, like you can watch the stream and laugh and be like, ha ha, right, sunrun over.

Speaker 2 Like, and you do not, your mental game, because this person also prided themselves on good mental game, like mental game non-existent. Like, you've just been winning.

Speaker 2 But when you, when that happens now, like, let's go back.

Speaker 2 When, when that happens in Washington, the stakes are much higher than throwing chips at a player, which by the way, if you play poker, big poker, no, no, you never throw your chips, right?

Speaker 2 Like, that is a, that is a big etiquette, no-no. Like, chips should never fall off the table.
Like, do do not do things with a lot of force. Like, just be nice about it.
Splashing the pot, not good.

Speaker 2 So, yeah.

Speaker 2 When that happens in Washington, consequences are much more dire and it's no longer quite as amusing. So, when I always say, like, beware people who've been on huge winning streaks, right?

Speaker 2 Their decision-making is going to be colored by that.

Speaker 5 American or Euro? Can you say that much?

Speaker 2 Euro.

Speaker 2 Okay. The Euro, the Euros.
I don't know. The Euro, Euros kind of believe in

Speaker 5 luck. They're a little superstitious, I think, right?

Speaker 2 They seem like they're so rational.

Speaker 2 There's a rational superstition, I think, in a lot of rivarians, right? A lot. And I don't even know.
I don't know about Musk.

Speaker 2 Like, I don't know if he has irrational superstitions, but a lot of people who are Rivarians and who are kind of these gambly types and who do you think about risk, they also are superstitious.

Speaker 2 And I just find it amusing and also, you know, sometimes disappointing.

Speaker 2 And some people are aware of it, like Ike Haxton, you know, in my In The Biggest Bluff, I have a section where I talked to Ike about superstition and he fully owned it.

Speaker 2 And he's like, yeah, I know this is totally irrational, but like, I'm going to do it anyway, right? I'm going to have my like rituals, et cetera.

Speaker 2 But then there are other people who are like, no, I'm not superstitious at all.

Speaker 2 Oh, yes, this is the same shirt I was wearing from day one of the tournament because, you know, I've been running well at it, but no, I'm not superstitious at all.

Speaker 2 But I think, I think that that's Ike's perspective that it can't hurt right like it you know it's probably it's not it's it's bullshit but like can it really hurt and my argument is yes it can hurt because when your rituals when your superstitions are disrupted it can actually really fuck with your mental equilibrium right like what happens if that lucky shirt that you've been wearing every single day um suddenly you can't find it or like you know that if you're staying in a hotel like

Speaker 2 it you know it got lost somewhere housekeeping took it like and then suddenly like you have a day four restart day five you're deep and like you're thrown off by this and um i i wrote about this but it's happened to olympic athletes like there was one olympic athlete who lost her lucky necklace right before a run and like just completely fucked up her run right like so yes there is a downside to this it can hurt um because if when you're kind of reliant on that it can take it can be really difficult to kind of to move past it.

Speaker 2 But I think this is a this is a good way to wrap up the show because in some ways, like there have been some themes that have gone through all of our segments today from fires to now.

Speaker 2 One of them is kind of the irrational exuberance and people, people not making correct decisions because they're a little bit overconfident and misperceived risk, whether it's risk of fire or

Speaker 5 we're a quarter of the way now through the 21st century.

Speaker 2 I'm getting that right.

Speaker 2 Yeah, we are.

Speaker 5 And irrational exuberance is still a thing I'm sorry to report.

Speaker 2 It absolutely is, and I think it's here to stay. And on that note, Nate, get some rest.

Speaker 2 Let's get over your jet lag so that you're fully awake. And we will see you all next week where Nate will no longer be in a time zone that he doesn't even know what time it is anymore.

Speaker 2 So we'll see you next week.

Speaker 2 Let us know what you think of the show. Reach out to us at riskybusiness at pushkin.fm.

Speaker 2 Risky Business is hosted by me, Maria Kondakova.

Speaker 5 And by me, Nate Silver.

Speaker 2 The show is a co-production of Pushkin Industries and iHeartMedia. This episode was produced by Isabel Carter.
Our associate producer is Gabriel Hunter Chang.

Speaker 2 Our executive producer is Jacob Goldstein.

Speaker 5 If you like the show, please rate and review us so other people can find us too. And if you want to listen to an ad-free version, sign up for Pushkin Plus.

Speaker 5 For $6.99 a month, you get access to ad-free listening thanks for tuning in

Speaker 10 this is sophie cunningham from show me something do you know the symptoms of moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea or osa in adults with obesity they may be happening to you without you knowing If anyone has ever said you snored loudly or if you spend your days fighting off excessive tiredness, irritability, and concentration issues, it may be due to OSA.

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