What to Look for on Election Day

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Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making better decisions.

I'm Maria Konakova.

And I'm Nate Silver.

Do we even need a script for a day?

We're just talking about the election, right?

We are.

And today is Monday, November 4th.

And so today we will be, this is an extra special episode of Risky Business.

We don't usually drop on Mondays, but here we are recording and dropping on the same day to bring you what we know and hope and fear and just

state of the world

less than 24 hours away away from election day.

Yeah, it's exciting.

Nate, what are your plans for today and for tomorrow?

So for

today,

there are things that are extremely high priority and things that are medium high priority.

Today at midnight, we will run the model for the last time and I'll publish kind of my big last overview of the race.

So I'm starting to write that in my head.

I haven't put keys to our fingers to keys quite yet.

We also have an election night model for silver bulletin readers that I think is kind of cool.

It relies on which states have been called by the networks because we don't want to have to estimate vote shares

individually, right?

We don't want to have to get too cute and we're busy.

We're just two people, Eli and I.

But I figured out that you can get a lot of information from like when when a state is called.

If Florida, probably a Trump state, is called early for Trump, it counts its vote fast, that reveals much more information than if it takes a while and it's kind of close, which even though Trump might win, is kind of

potentially maybe even vaguely okay for Harris.

If Florida is not called until 11 p.m., that means probably Trump wins by only a couple of points, which means that Harris over from her polls.

So the model can now account for the timing of calls as well as which state remains uncalled.

I think it's a pretty cool product.

I have like three more hours of work to do on that product.

Oh, that is pretty cool.

No, I didn't really think about that.

But of course, there is a ton of information

and things like that, which can be more bullish or more bearish for either of the candidates.

So I'm excited to see how that plays out in real time.

So before we get into kind of the nitty-gritty and some of the big polls and big news that have come out since we last spoke

last week, what is your thought on kind of where we are right now?

Let's get like a a big picture overview.

You know, one day to go before the election, where do we stand?

Where does the race stand?

So the big picture, and we'll get into the medium-sized picture in a moment.

The big picture is that it's an extremely close election in the polls.

That does not necessarily guarantee it will be a close election in reality.

The polls could be way off another direction.

And I've been getting more worried about that in both directions for various reasons recently.

But, you know, we've never had a presidential election this close to 50-50.

Literally, our last model run had Trump at 50 point.

Let me look at the exact numbers just so I'm not misquoting myself.

It is Harris at 49 points.

Scroll down page.

Scroll down.

Scroll down.

49.2%, Trump at 50.4%,

and no majority, meaning a tie, which probably gets resolved for Trump, by the way, at 0.4%.

So I literally do not know who's going to be ahead in the last model run we published after midnight tonight.

That is Harris's best number in two and a half weeks.

At the same time, the forecast has spent the last six or seven weeks in the range we call a toss-up, within the range of 60-40.

You know, the direction, it's rarely fallen outside of that range.

We've never gone outside that 60-40 range at almost any point, just for a few days for

Harris after her convention.

She was below 40%.

But like, so it's the same variation.

There are these seven swing states.

She, at this point, seems to be doing a little bit better in the Blue Wall states, in particular, Michigan and Wisconsin, less so in Pennsylvania, but that's kind of a pure tie.

And has kept North Carolina and Georgia quite competitive.

But if you squint, you see maybe a Trump lead of one point.

No one can agree on Nevada except to say that we don't know anything about Nevada.

Arizona is the one state that seems like the safest bet for Trump.

Although...

Although, Maria, there was a poll of Latino voters out today that showed

Harris ahead in a survey just I think it was Telemundo or Univism I can't one of those major networks

that had Harris winning Latinos by 32 points in a large sample of Latinos or something in the range of 32 points

which would be a total reversal of earlier polling that showed her doing worse than typical Democratic margins among the Hispanic population and you have this plausible cause where Trump had this rally where

one of the warm-up speakers made offensive comments about Puerto Ricans and all these Latino pop stars

endorsed Harris.

And that would be a big deal.

I mean, that's when you might get,

you know, in particular, Arizona and Nevada

finishing for Harris a little better than the polls might suggest.

By the way,

there are a lot of Puerto Ricans in eastern Pennsylvania.

There are some counties in Pennsylvania where

11% of the population is Puerto Rican.

That

could be important in a race that could come down to one or two counties in Pennsylvania.

Absolutely.

And so, I don't know.

We talked about it last week.

Bad bunny matters, people.

Bad bunny matters.

Well, I also worry that, like, look, there's not a huge change in the race.

There's also some data that Harris is doing well with people who decided late in the race over the past week.

You know, I mean, I wish, despite wanting to get some sleep and having his fucking thing be over with, I wish that

we had like three more days of polling or that we had pollsters that were polling this weekend because, like, you can kind of see the makings of a trend toward Harris.

It's not so clear that it isn't just noise.

A lot of pollsters, by the way, are, this got picked up last week, are hurting.

They're just kind of literally matching the polling averages exactly in every state.

You know, but the independent data points like this poll of Latinos, the last seven New York Times polls were pretty good for Harris, not fantastic, you know, consistent with

Tilt Harris race.

Also some polls that were good for Trump, right?

I mean, the forecast is like literally 50-50 now.

Should we talk about the Seltzer poll?

Yeah, let's do it.

So let's first set this up for people who don't obsessively follow polls.

So the Seltzer poll, one of the most high-quality polls that exists and something that people really pay attention to.

Nate, do you want to just give us like a little bit of an overview why her poll matters and kind of what this means and why it's important that this poll dropped just right now

and is actually giving information that is contrary to prior polls in the state?

So

Anne Seltzer is the one pollster that kind of doesn't have egg on her face.

She has repeatedly defied the conventional wisdom and been correct.

I remember in 2008,

she had Barack Obama winning the Iowa caucuses by a large margin.

People didn't believe believe it.

And he did.

So

in June, Anne Seltzer has a poll showing Biden trailing Trump by 18 points.

Every point is a lot, by the way.

18 points is epic landslide.

And she is an old school pollster.

She doesn't do this hurting crap.

She's not afraid to let her data speak for itself.

In September, she has a poll showing Kamala Harris trailing Trump, but by only four points in Iowa, people are like, oh, it's an outlier.

Kind of interesting.

Kind of interesting.

I think Biden lost Iowa by eight points in 2020.

So she had her final poll out on Saturday night.

I had plans on Saturday night, which were canceled because of this poll.

And people are like, okay, it'll probably show Trump plus six, a little bit better for Harris than the priors might be, but you know, whatever.

We know Trump's going to win Iowa.

Instead, the number is Harris plus three.

The state that Democrats lost by nine points and 28 nine points in 2020, Harris is hit by three points.

Now, look, these polls have a margin of error.

If you actually calculate this out diligently like I do, the real margin could be Trump plus three, or for that matter, Harris plus nine or whatever.

I think that's pretty unlikely.

But this is an epistemologically important data point because Ann Seltzer doesn't follow the herd.

One of the few independent pieces of information that you get.

And there's kind of this story of like Harris getting some surprisingly good polls in this kind of prairie part of the Midwest, right?

You've got polls of Ohio that she's probably not going to win Ohio, but are closer.

You've got polls in, you know, in Nebraska, including the one district where they do award an electoral vote that have been very good for Harris all year long.

Even a poll in Kansas showed a single-digit race.

You know, the thing that doesn't make sense is like, if she's doing so well in Iowa, then why is it tied in Wisconsin?

You're not going to have like Wisconsin Harris plus one and Iowa Harris plus three.

If she wins by three in Iowa, she probably wins by seven in Wisconsin or something at a minimum.

And so lots of theories about it, but

you know, it reassured, at the very least,

it raises the possibility that pollsters who have less guts than Ann Seltzer are terrified to show Harris leads because they're nits, Maria.

They're fucking nits.

And they're terrified of being wrong and being criticized because they don't have the fucking guts that we have here on the podcast.

This is true.

This is true.

We're definitely not.

And they have bad data, by the way.

If you have bad data, then just copy the polling averages.

That's absolutely true.

So if

Seltzer

is

onto something, I'm actually...

a little bit curious about your your take on whether we've been we've been critical of her vp pick um

for for many for many months basically since she made it do you think that Walls might be helping her a little bit in no not at all I'm just she's not volunteer in Minnesota I'm just curious oddly enough yeah that that is that is very funny the Saturday Live skit where they couldn't tell if it was Tim Walls or Tim Kane I think is all you need to know is all you need to know all right all right I just wanted I just wanted to throw that out there but yeah it seems like Ann Selzer has more balls than a lot of the other pollsters that we're seeing and

that says something.

So other than that, we had the New York Times Sienna polls come out.

That is the other thing that

has changed since you and I spoke.

And those are, well,

why don't you give us a little bit of an update and

how that has

that has affected your thinking, if at all, because they did their polls of the seven swing states, right?

New York Times, Sienna College

had shown this unusual divide where they had had Harris doing conspicuously well in the Blue Wall states.

Again, those are Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, and conspicuously badly outside of the Blue Wall.

So North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada.

Those margins tightened a little bit in their final set of polls, which could reflect,

I mean, they don't hurd either.

At least I don't think.

It could reflect meme reversion, right?

I mean, maybe if you run all these polls and you're honest and you don't hurt, you're going to have some results that

are outliers.

And directionally speaking um

you know i mean they still show a wider gap than somebody it was a little bit more scrambled right it kind of was more the thesis like yeah

all these seven states are are really close um but in general i think if you like in general they were consistent with like a map where um Harris probably finds some way to win.

I think they had her head in like North Carolina and Nevada and Michigan, Wisconsin.

That's a case where actually Nevada would matter in that precise combination.

I think they also had Pennsylvania as a tie, roughly.

Well, all these polls have had a tie roughly.

I think they had like an exact tie, just going from memory here.

So, yeah.

Now, look,

there are other polls.

There's this Brazilian firm called Atlas Intel that's highly rated.

It's had very Trump numbers.

National polls have tightened a lot to the point where you would think that would be good news for Trump.

If he wins or loses the popular vote by only a point or wins a popular vote, then he probably is going to win the Electoral College.

So yeah, conflicting data.

But I'd say that, I mean, both the model and kind of my

subjective take, not worth very much, are,

you know,

more bullish for Harris than they were a week ago or two weeks ago.

And to the point where if you literally gave me a million dollar free bet, I'm not sure who I'd been on.

Maybe Harris.

Maybe Harris.

That's interesting because we know that a few weeks ago, that would not have been the case.

And I, you know, from a psychological standpoint,

I'm really nervous that I am taking the data that I want to see because obviously we know, you know, I'm very open that I voted for Harris.

I want Harris to win.

And so when I see this, you know, Ann Selzer poll, I'm like, yes,

awesome, right?

Like we're seeing, yes, absolutely.

This means she's going to win.

This means she's going to win.

And I am so nervous of that tendency because confirmation bias is real.

Right.

And there are people on Trump's, on Trump supporters who are just as absolutely certain that Trump is going to win.

And we know that the way betting markets work, right?

If you're someone's betting against you and both sides always think that they're right.

Otherwise, they would not be putting money down.

And usually everyone thinks that the other person's the dumb money.

No one thinks that they're the dumb money.

The betting markets, by the way, have tightened also.

Yeah, let's actually talk about that a little bit because Polymarket and betting markets in general, but Polymarket Polymarket has made the biggest move because Polymarket was the biggest Trump favorite outlier.

There are a couple of things here.

One hypothesis is that this French, he was identified as like some French guy with sort of midwit opinions.

He's like, hey, the shy Trump voters.

I'm French.

The French.

Nate, we need your French accent.

Where's your French?

Chat Font Fautel?

There you go.

I don't really do French.

I don't really do foreign.

I do regional American.

All right, fine.

Where's our French guy from in regional American?

Vermont?

All right, let's do it.

I'm in Louisiana.

Okay, anyway.

But like, so maybe he just ran out of money that he's willing to bet.

And if he's now

put all the money he's willing to invest in this bet and kind of capitulated, then it kind of falls to this price floor.

And I think that's part of what happened.

Because the movement in polling averages didn't really correlate that well day to day with movement in the polls, except the Seltzer poll.

But the Seltzer poll also changes the narrative a lot.

And so, you know, so one story is about this one trader who impacted the whole market, right?

Another story is that you have lots of people making technical trades because they think they can read the vibes of the market.

And then you have a reconciliation close to the election.

So if you get Harris cheap, right?

Maybe you might now hedge on some Trump.

But anyway, but it could be that you revert to the fundamentals, but they converged.

The markets converge toward the models and not the other way around.

And again, I work as a consultant for polymarkets.

so I respect both of these techniques.

But I think people don't understand

that market sentiment is a thing, particularly in

things.

Well, I don't know, I guess it's more anchored to some reality than a lot of things that are traded, right?

But market sentiment is a thing and becoming more of a thing, right?

When GameStop can go rocket 100X based on no fundamental change whatsoever, right?

Or NFTs or,

you know, DJT, Donald John Trump, DJT stock.

You know, look, and again, as someone who's actively an actual gambler, I understand that rich whales are what make gambling profitable for skilled gamblers.

They're a very important part of the ecosystem.

And you have people who are like, who are like, well, he's putting his money behind it.

It must be, it must know something.

No, he's probably a fucking idiot, right?

An idiot will be right right 51% of the time, so God bless him.

But, like, God, have you ever fucking met rich people with like strong political opinions?

They are not particularly specific.

I have, and they are, they are some of my favorite opponents at the poker table.

And they are great to have in your lifestyle, right?

Um, but like, they, they don't, they index off this, these kind of stylized truths that are not more accurate, I don't think, than the models.

Now, when there's new information, if uh, you know, there's a murder investigation into

Kamala Harris's husband that begins tonight, right?

You know, that won't have time to be reflected in the polls, but it will be reflected by prediction markets.

And so that's quite useful.

But they kind of believe in these halfway superstitious things.

And in any event, they've converged toward the models.

I mean, there's a slight Trump edge in Polymark here.

I think it's

5644 or something, but much closer than it had been a couple of weeks ago.

That's very interesting that there's still a Trump edge there.

And then yet you say that if you were given a million free roll, you might actually place it on Harris.

So, this is just giving me and my gambler's mind a little bit of pause to try to figure out, you know, what are some arbitrage opportunities right now leading into the election.

But

I'm interested

to see what will actually happen and how this will play out.

And given the fact that everything is so close, let's pivot a tiny bit and talk about our predictions

tomorrow and for whether when we basically think this race is going to be done.

We'll be back right after this.

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We've obviously had some close elections.

Last election cycle,

so four years ago, we did not know the outcome on Election Day itself.

What do we think, you know, if we were if we were making some predictions,

what do we think is going to happen this year?

Because obviously there are some people who are giving just very, you know, scary Civil War-like predictions that, you know, no, no outcome is going to be accepted, blah, blah, blah.

All these things are going to happen.

People are going to not certify.

There are all of these what-ifs.

So let's try to talk from a rational, data-driven, not an emotional perspective, not the things I'm afraid of, and try to figure out what do we think is going to happen tomorrow?

Where do the results need to be?

What do the margins need to be like for the results to be kind of definitive within the next few days?

Or, Nate, are you and I going to be having this conversation for the next month, two months, to try to figure out who the hell won the election and what's happening?

So,

as I think I've talked about before, if you want a non-tense election, then you want to be rooting for a polling error.

So this is is why my life sucks.

Either we have this nightmare situation or you have a big polling error.

So if the polls are off consistently in the same direction, then

someone could sweep six or seven of the swing states.

And in that case, then look, I'm sure that Trump would not happily accept defeat unless it's really, really bad.

But yeah, there's a 34% chance that one candidate sweeps all the swing states and like another 20% chance that it's six or seven in in one direction.

I mean, I've tried to look a lot.

Those are, by the way, those are pretty high percentages.

34% is a pretty high percentage.

Yeah, one in three.

Um, I've tried to look a lot at uh

exactly how the night will play out.

That's important for the election night stuff I'm doing.

Um, you know, the vote counting should be faster than last time around because, um,

there are fewer uh male votes because you don't have Democrats staying at home because of COVID as much.

Um,

Some states have expedited their procedures.

Some have not.

You know, I mean, there's way more than networks call it versus will skilled traders know by which way it's leaning by 3 a.m.

Wednesday morning.

I mean, I'd say

a 70% chance that we'll know by Wednesday, 3 a.m.

with 95 plus percent confidence.

Well, that's that's higher than I would have thought.

Guesamate pulled out of my ass.

Well, you're pulled out of ask guesstimate actually reassures me a little bit because I was.

But that doesn't mean Trump accepts the results, right?

Let's say Harris wins the Blue Wall plus Nevada plus North Carolina.

One of the more plausible maps, by the way.

Okay.

You know, that gives her

some room to spare, right?

In that scenario, she could lose any one state and still have a victory, any one of the swing states.

She couldn't lose California or something.

And, you know,

and that outcome might be clear enough that we'd know it by 3, 4 a.m., although Nevada takes a long time to count its votes.

And Pennsylvania does too.

But we might know by 3 or 4 a.m.

And then it's all about the aftermath and about and about what happens with Trump.

Now,

Congress passed reforms to the vote counting process.

Basically, it's actually a pretty good law in the view of election experts that I've read from.

It basically allows the courts to have precedence over

Republican legislature or Democratic ones for that matter over people who are at the state level, state officials who are trying to interfere with the vote count.

And the courts have not shown any tolerance for Trump's shenanigans.

He lost like all but one other, he was like one out of 60 in like court rulings in 2020.

Also, you have in place in all these states positions, people in key positions like governors and

secretaries of state.

You have Democrats having a firewall in almost all, if not all of these swing states, in at least some of those roles.

Or in the case of Georgia, you have Brian Kemp, who is notoriously not a fan of Trump's

tendency to deny that he lost the election in 2020.

So I'm not so so worried about like,

if Harris wins, she won't become president somehow.

Am I worried about violence?

A little bit, yeah.

And just for the record, too, I mean, if it's a really close Trump win, I don't know what happens then either.

People are unhappy.

I actually, I do hope, I'm sorry, Nate, I know that you said, you know, you're in a very tough spot, but I do hope that the polling averages are off in the sense that I hope that it's a more decisive election result than it is a closer one, because I think that would just be better for, you know, better for the country in a lot of respects.

Obviously, you know, as we know, I'm biased, so I hope that that victory is in Kamala Harris's favor.

But,

you know, I think that this is going to be a crucial election, not just in terms of who wins, but in terms of, you know, the future of our democratic institutions, just to kind of watch to see

how they can be stress tested, right?

They and whether,

how much they've weakened versus not,

and what's just going to happen over the next few days.

I do hope that by November 6th, as you said, so next time we're talking is going to be November 6th, right?

So we're going to be dropping another risky business podcast in two days.

So I hope that, you know, 9 a.m.

Pacific, noon Eastern,

when we speak, that we will actually know the results of the election.

I think that would be such a wonderful outcome

just to know that, okay, we're not going to have this protracted battle going on.

And

to me, that would be, to me, that would, you know, that's something that's really...

an optimistic an optimistic take because I definitely see the scenario where on the sixth, you and I are talking again being like, so who do we think is going to win this election and what's going to happen?

And I don't want to be having that conversation again in the sense of, wow, like we really can't decide and

shit's going down.

Because I do think there is a lot of uncertainty.

And I do think that there are a lot of things that we just don't know because this is a largely not unprecedented, but it's a very different situation than any that's happened during our lifetimes.

And as you say, this is.

This is the closest race we've had, right?

This is the closest race we've had during our lifetime.

Yeah, I mean, look, I've never had a race where it's literally 50-50 before on election day.

I've only forecasted for presidential elections, I guess.

But, like, you know, look, I was going to say that,

oh, if you're a Democrat and Trump has to win, then

maybe at least would have him win clearly.

So, you know, it kind of ends the misery earlier and/or avoids the sorts of, you know, whatever that could happen in a close election.

I think if you're somebody who is like concerned about Trump excesses and

overreach,

you want a close close election if Trump wins, conditional on Trump winning, for a different reason though, which is that in

a close election, there's a chance that Democrats

control, still control, probably not the Senate, either control the House or keep the Senate to a margin where Trump can't appoint insane cabinet secretaries and has some degree of oversight, right?

That you don't have

Robert F.

Kennedy Jr.

as the health secretary, for for example.

I'm not joking.

He's talked about

if you have a 52,

excuse me, a 5149 GOP majority in the Senate, you're going to have some

objectors to RFK Jr.

If it's 54 seats, then that's a huge difference.

So the scenario where like the polling is way off on Trump and he beats his polls again, and again, this is, I've looked this up.

I mean, it's unsurprisingly where Republicans beat their polls in the presidential race and vice versa, the Senate candidates will do the same thing with very high correlation.

So,

yeah, Democrats, I think,

really want to avoid these landslide outcomes where they are kind of totally dealt out of power.

I mean, I obviously agree, but I, as people know, you know, that's the outcome I want is a Democratic victory.

But like I said, I'm

trying my best, Nate, to look at the data

without that emotional tint right now, because I think that emotion ain't going to help anyone

other than, you know, as we already said, if you haven't voted yet, please, please, please go out and vote.

And if you're undecided, please go, you know, please go and vote tomorrow.

I think that that is crucially important.

And this includes, by the way, let me add, you know, yeah, we talk about these

seven swing states,

and there's, you know, a 90% chance that one of them is what I call the tipping point state.

But if you're in

Iowa or New Hampshire or Virginia or New Mexico or Minnesota or or

Alaska.

Some of these states are reaches for the candidates, but they come up every once in a while, right?

And we're pretty smart about how we simulate this variance.

And like, if the polls are way off, you could have some surprising states in place.

So if you're in that broader penumbra of swing states, whoever you have, if you have a preference, I'm not endorsing anybody.

But I would endorse the idea of your vote being worth the time for you to get off your ass and vote tomorrow.

It's going to be easier now because

you have in most states this spread of like methods of voting, the polls aren't as swarmed as much on election day.

So you're not going to have to

go too far away, go to one of those nice artistic little coffee shops, right?

And get your sticker.

So I will endorse the idea of voting.

So now, you know, with less than 24 hours left to go, I am going to let you go and worry about your final model and polls.

And looking forward to seeing what the silver bulletin says tonight.

Nate, as you've already said, you have no idea what it's going to look like when you run the model for the last time.

Yeah, just as we were taping this, there was a Marist national poll, another high-quality poll that is known for not hurting that had Harris plus four.

So look, I mean,

I don't know.

I don't know who I'd been on.

People think I'm like tinkering with knobs and shit.

I don't.

I have no idea who's going to be ahead too.

Well, let's see.

And I'm very curious.

I will be waiting with bated breath.

So with that,

let's leave everyone.

Please, please go vote.

And we will check back in in 48 hours to see where we are.

Good luck, everybody.

Indeed.

Good luck, America.

Let us know what you think of the show.

Reach out to us at riskybusiness at pushkin.fm.

Risky Business is hosted by me, Maria Kondakova.

And by me, Nate Silver.

The show is a co-production of Pushkin Industries and iHeartMedia.

This episode was produced by Isabel Carter.

Our associate producer is Gabriel Hunter Chang.

Our executive producer is Jacob Goldstein.

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Thanks for tuning in.

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