The Democrats Are Folding on the Shutdown

Transcript

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Speaker 1 Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making better decisions. I'm Maria Konakova.

Speaker 9 I'm Nate Silver.

Speaker 9 We're at no lack of political news.

Speaker 9 We're going to talk about the elections that were held last Tuesday, the shutdown that it's on its its way to being over maybe will be officially super duper over by the time you listener are hearing this episode.

Speaker 9 Big win for Democrats in 1Ks. I'd argue a big L for Democrats in the other.

Speaker 9 So we're going to talk all that through in kind of a merged way, I think, which is how it feels as we're approaching this in real time.

Speaker 1 Yeah. And, you know, what does, as we often wonder on the show, what does this mean for the future of the Democratic Party and what they should be thinking going forward? So let's get into it, Nate.

Speaker 1 So yes, full disclosure, we are taping this on Monday, November 10th.

Speaker 1 Lots of things happening, Nate, that you would probably agree that had we been taping this, say, on Friday, it would be a very, and I mean Friday last week, it would be a very different segment because we'd be talking about it in very different terms in terms of what the Democratic Democratic Party was doing, what its momentum was like than we are after the weekend when we had 10 members of the Senate basically capitulate and say, okay, we don't want the shutdown to continue.

Speaker 10 Yeah, look, if we've been taping on Friday or Wednesday for that matter, I mean, look, on my newsletter, I called the night a 10 out of 10 for Democrats.

Speaker 10 They won basically every race that you might expect them to win. They won Virginia, New Jersey by huge margins.
They won a bunch of Supreme Court retentions of Pennsylvania. They won all the little...

Speaker 10 piddly state senate and dog catcher races. You know, depending on what type of Democrat you are, you may or may not feel good about the results in New York City.

Speaker 10 That's a little bit of a different bucket. You had a Democrat running against a former Democrat.

Speaker 10 But this was like a 10 out of 10 night. You know, one thing it demonstrated is that President Trump is extremely unpopular.
In fact, his unpopularity increased during the shutdown.

Speaker 10 Let me qualify that though, right? What really seemed to trigger an increase in Trump's disapproval rating was suspending SNAP benefits, that is the Food nutrition program, aka food stamps.

Speaker 10 If you look carefully at when his approval rating spiked, because at first in the shutdown, it wasn't much affected actually in silver bulletins, tracking it increased marginally, kind of within the margin of error.

Speaker 10 But when he tried to use that as a political cudgel and ignored court orders to fund it, and obviously Trump has exercised a lot of discretion in what things are or are not funded, I mean, that affects 43 million Americans or something.

Speaker 1 And,

Speaker 9 you know, that combined with having these fancy dinners that Trump is inclined to have, most presidents do at Mar-a-Lago, and

Speaker 10 just the general insensitivity toward how actual might feel

Speaker 10 was, you know, it seems like really starting to affect his numbers.

Speaker 10 Also, all these issues, both healthcare, which were the ostensible stakes of the shutdown, and SNAP benefits have to do with affordability, right?

Speaker 10 In the case of some SNAP recipients, maybe the ability to buy food at all or go hungry potentially,

Speaker 10 you know, between those things and tariffs.

Speaker 9 You know, I mean, we talk about all the fuck-ups that Democrats make, and we'll talk about some of them today, but like Republicans are not exactly game theory optimal political strategists either, or at least, or at least Trump isn't, right?

Speaker 10 You know, on some level,

Speaker 10 the kind of progressive critique that Republicans want to cut benefits for the poor in order to pay for tax cuts for the rich, I mean, that's like directionally been true for a long time.

Speaker 10 You know, it's true of Trump, but if you fuck with people's benefits, and by the way, we're in an environment now where Trump likes to stereotype Democrats as being poor, the ones who would need food stamps.

Speaker 10 Again, the audience should know, I'm not super woke, right? This often is racially coded messaging, right?

Speaker 10 If you look at the data, then probably a pretty even mix of Democratic and Republican groups that are receiving these benefits, right? Trump actually does quite well with poor white voters.

Speaker 10 Trump also does fairly well with minorities who didn't attend college and things like that. And so

Speaker 9 that was a big political opportunity

Speaker 9 for Democrats. And then they just caved.
You know, I'm busted out of my poker tournament and like, oh, the shutdown's over. Maybe I'll make my flights back and forth around the country.

Speaker 1 But Maria, what do you think? Yeah, well, I was looking at a lot of the numbers over kind of the last week, and I noticed two things.

Speaker 1 One, kind of when you see the New York election, it seems like Mabdani was able to make inroads into a lot of the areas that had gone redder in the presidential election and that had gone Trump, right?

Speaker 1 So it seems that he was actually successful in appealing to some of that base to vote Democratic, which to me spoke of the fact that, you know, there were people were starting to get fed up, right?

Speaker 1 Some of those lower-income areas that had been heavily pro-Trump were starting to kind of feel the pain of everything that's been going on.

Speaker 1 And as you pointed out in your newsletter, and I think this is true, some of the messaging of the Democrats during this shutdown hadn't really been landing. Like the Affordable Care Act, right?

Speaker 1 The healthcare, it should be landing, right? You should want health care.

Speaker 1 But, you know, because people are very in the moment and they don't always, you and I are, you know, very much online and kind of paying attention to this, but a lot of of people, they're not online and they're not really listening.

Speaker 1 They're like, I don't know what the Affordable Care Act is. You know, like, I don't care.
My payments still seem the same. They don't realize, oh, this really might be affecting me.

Speaker 1 So the messaging wasn't exactly landing. But with the combination of, you know, tariffs finally starting to kind of play out in the pricing and snap, which does immediately affect you, right?

Speaker 1 It affects your ability to get food. It affects your ability to get benefits right now.
It's kind of, it's a very emotional, very kind of visceral experience that causes.

Speaker 10 Well, if you look at Google searches for snap benefits, they have this weird cyclicality based on, I don't, you know, I've not been on food stamps in my life.

Speaker 10 I don't know the timing of when they're released, but you can see cyclicality that indicates people are searching for information about where's the grocery store I can go with

Speaker 9 with food stamps the moment they receive those benefits and things like that, right?

Speaker 10 And so it's, you know, literally eating is about the most visceral chart

Speaker 1 that one can imagine.

Speaker 10 Healthcare may be, you know, one

Speaker 10 degree removed from that in the sense that it's hopefully mostly preventative, or if it's not preventive, then it's things that you don't realize until you have a problem, right?

Speaker 1 But food, food is something that we really care about, right?

Speaker 1 Obviously. And now this was kind of a double whammy because food prices are going up.
You know, I don't care what Trump is saying that prices are down. It's not true, right?

Speaker 1 We know that inflation is actually hitting kind of that angle. And we know that SNAP benefits were finally, you know, people didn't know.
There was a lot of uncertainty.

Speaker 1 We also talk a lot on the show about how the human mind really doesn't like uncertainty. So it's horrible.

Speaker 1 Can you imagine if you have a family to feed and you're in limbo, you're like, I don't know if I'm going to get my SNAP benefits, right?

Speaker 1 Like, I actually have no idea if they're going to come this weekend. I don't know if I'll be able to afford my meal.
Like, I don't know what's going to happen.

Speaker 1 And it keeps going back and forth, and they release funds and they don't release funds. And people,

Speaker 1 you know, this is a moment where you can really appeal to people and be like, see, you know, this is actually, because people also were, you know, I think about equally blaming, and correct me if I'm wrong, Democrats and Republicans for the shutdown.

Speaker 1 It wasn't like Republicans were getting all the blame. But with the SNAP benefits, it's very clear that there are people who are saying, hey, you know, release the money we need to pay.

Speaker 1 We need to get money to the families. And you have Trump saying, no, right? It's actually, he's saying, no, I don't want to release this money.
I don't want the SNAP benefits going out.

Speaker 1 So, you know, Nate, who knows what in the world he was thinking. But what we do know is that the effect of this was felt, right? The approval ratings were going down.

Speaker 1 And I think that this helped kind of the momentum, the victorious moment of the Democrats saying, you know, because this all happened at the same time, right? There was this coalition.

Speaker 9 I mean, look, I think

Speaker 10 Democrats have the problem, the same problem that Maria and I do, which is that, you know, most people who comment on politics are fairly privileged, right?

Speaker 10 And in certain ways, it's the

Speaker 10 privilege to talk about abstract concepts like creeping authoritarianism or long-term impacts like climate change, for example, as opposed to the visceral, can I eat today if I get into a car accident, do I have insurance to cover my, you know, broken leg or whatever else, right?

Speaker 9 Those things are a bit more visceral.

Speaker 10 And

Speaker 10 I think,

Speaker 10 you know, one of the problems you had with the shutdown is that, like, so the ostensible basis for it was healthcare, right?

Speaker 10 If you look for Google searches for the Affordable Care Act, right, they were up a little bit, but they're tiny as compared to searches for SNAP benefits or the shutdown or other news stories that came up, like the new King's protests, or even

Speaker 10 the White House renovation/slash destruction construction of the East Wing creation of a new ballroom.

Speaker 10 All those things have a much bigger registry.

Speaker 10 And I think because there are some Democrats like Alexander Ocasio-Cortez or Bernie Sanders that are very effective on healthcare, a lot of Democrats who go on TV want to talk about these kind of more abstract themes instead.

Speaker 10 That's kind of what the Democratic, we used to call it like the blogosphere, right?

Speaker 10 You know, Democratic podcasters, substackers, social media personalities, cable news guests, guests, right?

Speaker 10 You know, they are usually talking about these abstract things, democracy and so forth, right? And so like, you know, it wasn't quite like Democrats' hearts were really in the message either. And

Speaker 10 I mean, there are a couple of stories by Democrats cave, right? You know, one story involves, we're afraid about the tangible impact on people and

Speaker 10 we are the kind-hearted people. We can't make people suffer for this thing that's not going to work anyway, right? It's one story.

Speaker 10 You know, story number two is that that ultimately, if you listen to Maria and I or read my writing at Silver Bulletin, you know, recognize early on that, like, a lot of this comes down to: are you willing to have Republicans blow up the filibuster, right?

Speaker 10 If you do that, you don't need any Democratic votes, right? You have majorities in both chambers of Congress. And, you know, reportedly, there were some senators who didn't want to go that far.

Speaker 10 And then there's just kind of general risk aversion, you know.

Speaker 10 So it's kind of the flip, you know, on the one hand,

Speaker 9 the public assumes, perhaps correctly, that it's Republicans who like to not pay for shit that helps working class people and shut government shit down, right? So on the one hand,

Speaker 10 that might create, I don't know if you'd call it a

Speaker 10 bias, but create like kind of a presumption among the public that like.

Speaker 10 If things aren't functioning well in government, then, and it's some type of policy choice as opposed to incompetence or whatever, right? Then that is a Republican choice, right?

Speaker 10 And that message is pretty hard for them to overcome, especially when Trump is saying about things like snap benefits: no, we don't want those, right?

Speaker 10 You know, on the other hand, like if they're big like softies who are going to like cave on everything,

Speaker 10 then

Speaker 10 okay, then that creates a predictable outcome. You're going to cave at some point.
And what consequence does that have? I mean, Maria, you know, since we've been out here playing poker,

Speaker 10 let me go for a poker 201 kind of more detailed analogy, right?

Speaker 10 There's times when, let's say, I'm playing a tough player, right?

Speaker 9 The tough opponent raises, you, I'm playing you, I'm playing you, and I just feel like you're owning me today.

Speaker 1 I'm sorry, Nate, you know, I just got your number today.

Speaker 10 You raise, I'm defending my blind, right? And I have a hand that I know, according to the computers, according to game theory defense, right? Um,

Speaker 10 is a thin defend. It might be, for example, a king four offsuit or something, right?

Speaker 10 And

Speaker 10 the way that you realize money with that hand is, yeah, sometimes you flop a king or a pair of fours and hold on, but it's also stuff like sometimes you're supposed to turn it into a bluff.

Speaker 10 Sometimes you're supposed to call down really thin, right?

Speaker 10 Someone's supposed to hope that Maria is deterred from betting and like, and all those ways to realize the value of the hand are difficult and require a lot of skill and discipline on every other street, right?

Speaker 1 Yes, and I'm just going to caveat this because for people who don't play poker,

Speaker 1 yes, 201 for kind of and applying it to kind of the broader political thing. Like, big caveat: in poker, just to remind you, you do not actually have to have the best hand to win, right?

Speaker 1 It is the only game where you can win with the worst hand if you play it correctly, if you execute the strategy correctly.

Speaker 1 And yes, some of it is just just outright bluffing, but it's also putting your opponent

Speaker 1 to a hard kind of test when they might have a decent hand, but not a great hand. So it's all about being able to figure out how do I exert pressure correctly.

Speaker 1 So your King 4 offsuit, for people listening, they're like, wait, I thought that was a bad hand. Yes, it is a bad hand.

Speaker 1 However, there are reasons why we might still want to play it if we have kind of this future game tree in mind and we are confident of our abilities to be able to execute that correctly.

Speaker 1 Please continue, Nate. So you've defended King 4 and now we're...

Speaker 9 By the way, you get a good price from the pot, right? You have good pot odds.

Speaker 10 If you are not willing to make those thin call downs and creative bluffs from time to time, then the hand is not profitable

Speaker 10 to defend.

Speaker 10 just if everything goes right. Yeah, now and then you hit two pair or make trips or some weird straight with the four or something, right?

Speaker 9 It just happened enough to justify the time when you have a better hammer a year, right?

Speaker 9 You know, in other words, if you are not willing to be strategic and exercise your options and adapt to circumstances, you just have to unfold, right? Then just don't do it. Yeah.

Speaker 10 Because like you're not going to like, you know, this thing about Snap, I mean, people kind of mischaracterize, you know, all these kind of more partisan Democrats who are like, we're winning the shutdown.

Speaker 10 It's like, I don't really think you're winning the shutdown because at first, trip screw rating didn't really decline at all. We talked about it on the show, right?

Speaker 10 And then Snap, and there was some other stuff.

Speaker 10 There was the White House and no kings, but like it seemed based on the persistence of Google searches for Snap and the persistence of that in the dialogue and the discourse and the real world impact of it that like that was a real gift to Democrats and you know about the best possible turn of events they could have

Speaker 9 and they still caved, which means that like their whole strategy was really misbegotten in the first place. If something goes well for you and you still

Speaker 9 don't know how to play, right, or still give up, then that means you aren't even close to having to do that.

Speaker 1 Yeah,

Speaker 1 imagine, you know, to continue, Nate, your poker analogy since you started it, imagine that you did decide, you know, okay, you know what, I'm going to defend this. I'm not quite sure why, but I am.

Speaker 1 And then the flop comes, you know.

Speaker 1 king three six something like that so you have top pair and then you know you check i bet big you call basically you end up folding the king anyway right and you you end up folding the king on a board that doesn't really change at all from the flop and you already or let's just let's say you made a pair of fours and there's nothing else let's just imagine that you actually did well right and your hand became something much more playable than it was originally and yet you still end up bending to pressure because you're like, well, Maria's betting so big that she probably has a better king, right?

Speaker 1 She probably has, you know, an even better kicker. Kicker is the second card for people who don't play poker.
You know, she probably has a king 10 or something like that.

Speaker 1 I'm just going to fold just in case. Well, then what the fuck were you doing defending the king four if you're either going, you know, if you're not actually able to navigate those situations.

Speaker 1 And it seems to me that over and over, what Democrats have done is have these principled positions where they're like, you know, we can't do this. And I'm not.
you know, great. You know,

Speaker 1 I also don't think we should be taking away health care from people. You know, kudos, this is a great thing to stand up for.

Speaker 1 But then, why the hell did you do it if you're going to say, okay, well, fine, you can take away the health care as long as you

Speaker 1 pay them food benefits right now?

Speaker 1 Well, then, why did we even get, you know, if you didn't even have a shutdown, if you capitulate on everything, then we wouldn't even be in this snap situation or this airline drama or any of this.

Speaker 1 And the Republicans get everything they wanted originally anyway.

Speaker 1 So it just seems like, you know, if you already know that, then why in the world, then it means that your strategy was not principled because you are stepping back from all of those principles, right?

Speaker 1 Like if you were saying we're the nice party that just doesn't want people to get hurt, well, you know, then sometimes you have to take immediate pain and it seems like they're not able to do that.

Speaker 1 And we'll be right back after this break.

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Speaker 1 So, back to kind of this broader question of how is the Democratic Party doing.

Speaker 1 Now, I'm in a, you know, as I said, last week it was such an amazing moment where you could see an amazing moment if you're a Democrat where you could see all sorts of different kinds of candidates win, right, in different places.

Speaker 1 It's not like the progressives won. Yes, Mamdani won in New York, but much more moderate candidates won in New Jersey,

Speaker 1 in other states. And

Speaker 1 it seemed like there were people coming together to say, okay, you know what, we're getting fed up and there is some democratic momentum and this might hold through the midterms.

Speaker 1 And if you can keep it going, this might

Speaker 1 have all sorts of good things for the party. I think actually Nancy Pelosi saying she's not going to run again was also a good thing for the party to say, okay, we need some younger blood.

Speaker 1 We need some of these

Speaker 1 people who probably shouldn't have been running for re-election already last cycle. It's good that they're finally stepping down.
There were a lot of good things. And now, you know, what it's kind of

Speaker 1 in some ways, Nate, and maybe this is a little bit harsh, what they did over the weekend seems like a little bit of a fuck you to the people who kind of banded together and stood by them and said, you know what, we can actually affect change.

Speaker 1 And then said, ah, you know what,

Speaker 1 we're just going to capitulate anyway. At least that's what it felt like to be.

Speaker 1 Look, we haven't mentioned the Chuck of of chuck and nancy yet chuck shumer yes um he by the way was opposed to he was one of the voices that was that was opposed to um ending the shutdown correct he voted against it but what the party leader does is

Speaker 1 theatrics right yeah it's theatrics and and

Speaker 1 fair enough

Speaker 10 look if he if he couldn't control his caucus after this very good turn of events then he should resign anyway because he has no no confidence in his concern.

Speaker 1 Right.

Speaker 1 So yes, it either means that he is disingenuous and he was okay with these votes that are ending the shutdown and he just wanted to publicly say, no, I'm not, or it means that he's ineffective, one of the two, and either one is not a particularly good thing.

Speaker 9 Remember, he didn't shut the government down in March at a time when

Speaker 10 it was a lower boil for democratic disarray, I guess.

Speaker 10 I mean, you know, look, when you're the opposition party, in some ways, there's never that much array because you don't really have to do that much, right? But,

Speaker 9 you know, Schumer didn't command any confidence in his caucus, right?

Speaker 10 He's also very unpopular, even among Democrats. A plurality of Democrats in the recent Pew research poll have a negative opinion of Schumer, right?

Speaker 10 Like all these things to me suggest he's not tenable as party leader.

Speaker 10 Like, I don't understand why, I mean, actually, I do kind of, you know, one reason why you might not have someone replace Schumer is because it's kind of a bad job. It's kind of a terrible job.

Speaker 9 You're going to piss people off no matter what.

Speaker 10 But, you know, look, here are, in my view, kind of the

Speaker 10 long-term stakes, right? Which is that do you kind of trigger a

Speaker 10 mini kind of Tea Party movement among Democratic voters where

Speaker 10 if they don't do kind of what

Speaker 10 the activist base wants, right, then they're voting out of office in primaries, right? That is a powerful incentive. It's a very powerful for Republicans.

Speaker 10 You know, you always hear stories about, oh, privately, Republicans are very reasonable, but they're terrified of being primaried, right? I kind of halfway by that.

Speaker 10 I think sometimes it's spinning to reporters. That's probably mostly true most of the time, right? You know, if Democrats replicate that dynamic, it's,

Speaker 10 you know, A, that makes leadership even more inflexible. If you think the base is smart about its demands, then maybe that's fine, right? I'm not sure.

Speaker 10 I think they're particularly smart or rational about kind of the kind of things they want Congress to do, right? But also, it affects what type of candidates win.

Speaker 10 The incumbency advantage is diminishing matters less than it once did.

Speaker 10 At the same time, more experienced candidates do tend to win office more often.

Speaker 10 A big point of controversy in my research, I've spent a lot of time on this. More moderate candidates, on average, win office more often.

Speaker 9 Other things being equal, all those qualifiers there are important, right?

Speaker 9 You know, you have in Maine Graham Plattner, who was an outsider. Have we talked about good old Grammy?

Speaker 1 I think

Speaker 9 him of the

Speaker 9 controversial Reddit post and tattoos and tattoos

Speaker 9 happens to be associated with a certain panzer division of the army formerly known as the Nazis.

Speaker 9 You know, probably not

Speaker 1 your ideal yet.

Speaker 1 Cover it up.

Speaker 9 You cover it up.

Speaker 1 After how many years? After 20 years or how many years did we? Oh, you already have this tattoo.

Speaker 9 I 100% buy that he was on some drunken sojourn in Croatia when he got the statue. Sure.
And it's a skull of crossbones. It kind of looks so cool, man.

Speaker 1 If he has it on your body, you're probably going to know what it is after

Speaker 1 years. Yeah, after whatever, right? Yep, yep.
Or this is like the Schumer question.

Speaker 1 Either you know what it is, which says something very important about you, or you never bother to figure out what it is, which also says something very important about you.

Speaker 1 And neither one is something that you particularly want in somebody who's going to be representing you.

Speaker 9 Yeah.

Speaker 9 But like a primary, you know, he's running against Janet Mills, who is the two-term governor of Maine, 77 years old.

Speaker 10 You know, couldn't really be a bigger contrast between the kind of old safe establishment choice and this new kind of thing, right? Flatter is like, oh, I won't turn into John Fetterman.

Speaker 9 You're someone who shifts their ideology all the time. I was like, well, actually, you just did, you know, so how anyway,

Speaker 9 it's neither here nor there. He would be fun to get a beer with.
That much seems to be.

Speaker 1 He would be interesting to get a beer with, that's for sure. And he could probably drink me under the table

Speaker 1 and get some tattoos as a result. But anyhow, I think that what, you know, the broader point is like, what is, yeah, what does the face of the party look like?

Speaker 1 And, you know, the moderate candidates there is, all things being equal, I think the data, I've seen it too, and Nate, obviously, like you said, you've worked with it, that that does does make a difference, but there is also kind of this, I think, movement, and I think this is inspired by Biden

Speaker 1 for

Speaker 1 younger candidates right now, because

Speaker 1 in Maine, like the fact that she's 77, like that also plays into it, right? I think people are fed up. They're like, we do not want another one of these debacle debates, right?

Speaker 1 We would much rather have someone, even though experience matters, we would much rather have someone who can at least,

Speaker 1 be vibrant and more youthful.

Speaker 1 And it doesn't always have to be a 34-year-old, but let's stop nominating people in their late 70s and 80s.

Speaker 10 Yeah, look, I mean, there are signs that

Speaker 10 on lots of political issues, there's a kind of divide that cuts about midway through kind of millennials where people kind of grew up in an age.

Speaker 9 where they were on their phones from early childhood, right? Like that's, that's quite different, you know what I mean?

Speaker 10 Um, my age, it's kind of like, well, you got computers early in life and then phones when you were in college, right? Like, I think technology is behind a lot of these shifts.

Speaker 10 I mean, it's probably not that uncommon, but like, look, you've had you had Democrats dominate. Ironically, Bernie Sanders is older than Hillary Clinton, right?

Speaker 10 I think older than Joe Biden by half a year, too, if I have that right. Um,

Speaker 10 and

Speaker 10 but he was a choice of the youth, right? You'd go to, I went to Rally's in New Hampshire as a reporter. Um,

Speaker 10 And, you know, I saw Hillary Clinton speak at some college and like she was talking about the Vietnam War and shit that fucking these college students, this is now

Speaker 9 12 years ago, don't know or care about, right?

Speaker 1 Nate, I mean, that was the Vietnam War.

Speaker 1 I recently gave a talk to a financial audience and realized that a lot of people in the audience not only did not go through, but didn't realize basically that there was a huge crash in 2008.

Speaker 1 So like it was, I was like, oh oh my god, you know, right?

Speaker 1 That is how far removed we are from,

Speaker 1 you know, you're talking to people who are in finance and they're like, oh, like 2008 crash, you know, that's basically like Black Friday, right? It's like the Great Depression.

Speaker 1 It's forever ago and I don't care and I don't really know. And what are you even talking about? But that is one of those, I mean, I'm just...

Speaker 1 pointing that out to say people's memory really is short and we are talking to a very new generation and we do need people who know how to appeal to them and how to say words that actually resonate.

Speaker 1 That's important.

Speaker 1 That's part of a politician's job.

Speaker 9 Youth goes a long way, right? Like maybe you want more

Speaker 10 moderate cam.

Speaker 10 I mean, you know, Cheryl and Spanberger in New Jersey and Virginia, I know how old they are, but they're like, you know, even that some, you know, even being middle-aged basically seems to help quite a bit, right?

Speaker 1 And they're called. Josh Shapiro.

Speaker 9 Josh Shapiro, by the way, you know, he was ranting about snap benefits. He understands politics pretty well.
Well, Shapiro is like 59 or something.

Speaker 1 Yeah, but he seems to, but he has youthful energy, right? He has.

Speaker 9 You know, one could accuse him of borrowing a little bit from the Obama cadence. I'm not going to try to imitate it.
Maybe that will be a future silver bulletin Easter egg, right?

Speaker 9 You know, one might say Josh Shapiro, but like, but he's extremely effective. That's the other thing, too, is like,

Speaker 10 when you have a candidate who has run for and won office before, then depending on how much they outperformed relative to the typical numbers in their state or district, right?

Speaker 10 You know, again, my view is always,

Speaker 10 I'm not sure Zoran's a great example of this because

Speaker 10 Iran against kind of another quasi-Democrat, former Democrat, right?

Speaker 10 But like, you know, anybody who performs objectively well relative to some reasonable baseline, right?

Speaker 9 That trumps any abstract arguments for me about moderate versus progressive or electable or not.

Speaker 9 You know, Bernie Sanders, until fairly recently, actually won by wider than Democrats' presidential margins in Vermont. That's changed slightly, but he has a good long run, right?

Speaker 9 Elizabeth Warren underperformed routinely, Democratic presidential margins, right?

Speaker 10 To me,

Speaker 10 that is a difference between a very good politician, say what you want about Bernie, right? For him to get socialism so much into the mainstream, right?

Speaker 9 Versus, I think, a very bad politician, right? Maybe not a bad politician, a bad,

Speaker 9 bad at the retail aspects of electoral

Speaker 9 office.

Speaker 10 I think Elizabeth Warren is surely a very smart person, right?

Speaker 10 And articulate, but not very appealing.

Speaker 9 And there are lots of gender-based and other

Speaker 9 difference is a big one, you know.

Speaker 1 It is a big one. And as we talk about a lot here, and I think that this is really important, you need to, when you have objective data points, you need to look at them, right?

Speaker 1 Like, because we are emotional, like we, we want to say, oh, but, but when you have the objective data, right, when you have the electoral performance, when you have the actual numbers for who turned out, how did they turn out, who did they vote for, what did they say, look at those numbers and do not dismiss them, right?

Speaker 1 Like, you have data, stop dismissing data, even if it goes against your view of who should be popular and who shouldn't. And so, you know, I have not been a Bernie Sanders fan

Speaker 1 quite frequently.

Speaker 1 I am at odds with Bernie Sanders, but I cannot deny that he is an incredibly effective politician, right? And that people who say, oh, we should dismiss him aren't looking, right?

Speaker 1 If you don't like him, it doesn't mean he's not effective.

Speaker 9 Can I make one more poker analogy here?

Speaker 1 Yes, absolutely. This is risky business.
I can make poker away from this.

Speaker 9 This is the whole fucking premise of the show, for God's sake.

Speaker 1 This is our show night. You can make a poker analogy.

Speaker 10 Poker players who don't have a long-term game plan or aren't very experienced, what they do is they just, they call too much, right?

Speaker 9 They're not just hitting the action.

Speaker 10 And like, that's a theme here too, right? Like, you know, when Democrats kind of replaced Biden, I guess that got so bad they couldn't really have any other option, right? But like,

Speaker 10 but, you know, the kind of compromise was Kamala Harris.

Speaker 10 And like sometimes, and that was not the worst decision that Democrats made, re-nominating Biden in the first place was a bigger disaster than that and the predicate to it in a lot of ways, right?

Speaker 10 But like, you know, if you don't have

Speaker 9 a game plan, you wind up calling too much in poker, which means the opponent gets to dictate the action all the time. And you're like, oh, shit, what do I do now? What do I do now? What do I do now?

Speaker 9 Right. And to take bolder action, and bolder action sometimes means bolding.
Sometimes it means turning the page or something or turning down an opportunity that you think is a losing battle, right?

Speaker 10 If you don't have a more of a long-term game plan, and you know, again, if you look at the messaging on the shutdown, some of it is on healthcare, some of it is on authoritarianism, some of it's on SNAP benefits, some of it's just kind of blame defraying or airlines or whatever else, right?

Speaker 10 You know, that reflects a lack of an actual

Speaker 10 consensus

Speaker 10 on what you're fighting for. And it's like kind of leadership's job to firm up that consensus, I think, right? To say, look, if we do this, we will achieve or have a chance of achieving objective X.

Speaker 10 And here are the ways things could go wrong.

Speaker 10 Because like nothing here, again, nothing in the shutdown was really surprising, except that kind of Trump picked this battle over snap when there's a lot of ability for the president, the executive branch to determine what's open and what's not, right?

Speaker 10 Picked a fight, turned badly for him, and Empress still didn't take advantage of that. Maybe enough about the shutdown.
But do you have any thoughts before we turn to New York?

Speaker 1 No, I think we're on the same page here where like this is just a failure, a failure of strategy, a failure of long-term strategic thinking.

Speaker 1 And to kind of close the loop on your poker analogy, Nate, you know, a lot of what happens with these passive players is you, you know, you take the passive route, you kind of go the way of inertia, you avoid risks because you think that's the actual risk-free way of playing.

Speaker 1 When you look down, you realize you don't have chips left, right? You have so few chips because you've put yourself in all these positions, and then you're forced to take a suboptimal risk, right?

Speaker 1 Then you're actually put in a position where you are forced to play a hand that you don't actually want to play or take a spot you don't want to spot because otherwise you are going to go bust, right?

Speaker 1 You have put yourself into a corner where you have to actually make an incredibly risky play. You have to go all in for your tournament life, which is the riskiest thing you can do.

Speaker 1 And you're doing it not on your terms, but on the terms that have been dictated basically by the circumstance because you've been so risk averse.

Speaker 1 And so that risk aversion ends up forcing you to take a bad risk, right? A suboptimal risk. So it turns out that it's actually not the risk-free strategy.

Speaker 1 It turns out that it's the strategy that backs you into a corner that forces you to take a risk that you should not be taking at a moment where you should not necessarily be taking it.

Speaker 1 You're taking it for the wrong reasons. I think that's what got us Kamala Harris, right? Like that's what gets us into a lot of these situations.

Speaker 1 And so I think that strategically, whether you're playing poke or playing politics, you need to understand what the repercussions are of playing that sort of strategy.

Speaker 1 And we'll be back right after this.

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Speaker 10 Maria, are you prepared for Mayor Mamdani?

Speaker 1 Well, Nate, as a part-time resident of New York, I am very curious to see what Mayor Mamdani will actually do.

Speaker 1 I remember you and I talking this past summer at Aspen when we were kind of dealing with the primaries and, you know, seeing the Mamdani momentum.

Speaker 1 I'm going to repeat something I said back then, which is I'm very curious to see how all of this campaigning is going to actually play out in practice, right? Because campaigning is not governing.

Speaker 1 And things that you can say and do, positions you can take, rhetoric that may or may not reflect your true point of view is much easier when you are not yet elected, right?

Speaker 1 And especially when you're new, right? You're a new face, there's all this hope, there's all this promise, there are all of these things that people project onto you.

Speaker 1 They see what they want to see, kind of they project their dreams, and they think that you can embody them if you campaign well, which Mom Dani absolutely did.

Speaker 1 And so then you get into office and there's political reality, right? You have to build coalitions, you have to get shit done, and you can't just bulldoze your way into the policies that you want.

Speaker 1 You have to realize that, okay, now I'm going to have to try to be re-elected when the time comes. I need to kind of get along with all of these different things.

Speaker 1 And so, when you are suddenly put in a position where you're governing, it's a very different proposition from where you were when you were campaigning.

Speaker 1 So, I'm very curious to see how he actually does in office because he's largely untested, right? He is someone who has not had kind of this position.

Speaker 1 Well, obviously he's not been mayor of New York, but he hasn't been in a similar position in the past.

Speaker 9 I feel like the Cuomo messaging got through to you.

Speaker 1 Oh, didn't win

Speaker 9 three terms in Albany.

Speaker 1 No, no, that's not what I mean. But

Speaker 1 you know exactly what I mean. And this is what I said, you know, back in the back in the summer, where like, let's see how it actually plays out.

Speaker 1 And I would love to give him the benefit of the doubt and hope hope that he's going to be effective and that he'll step back, hopefully, from some of the things that are potentially not as great for New York as a whole.

Speaker 1 So I'm cautiously optimistic, but I have no idea. I want to see what he does in the first six months, in the first year.
I want to see how this plays out once he gets into office.

Speaker 1 And I'm going to be very open-minded and hope for the best.

Speaker 9 Or you can ride the free bus to the communist grocery. No, I'm just kidding.
I've been surprised at how

Speaker 10 polarized some of my more

Speaker 10 centrist friends have been against Zoran, who seems to me like a

Speaker 10 right young dude who's been a little more forthright in some ways. And for example, apologizing for his like the 72 versions of him saying like defund the police.

Speaker 10 And again, whatever we talk about, he's camping. Like, I, you know, look, um,

Speaker 10 After the election, I talked, did a substack live with Ross Barkin, who's a journalist in New York, who also, interestingly, had zoran as his campaign manager he ran for office in 2018 right you can listen to that but like but ross was like yeah he actually is pretty progressive right and yeah look i mean there were stories about how like zoran when he was running for like class president promised like free fresh squeeze like orange juice every day i think this is literally true i think he is going to be guilty of like having overpromised especially because like

Speaker 10 you know A lot of his coalition was younger when I turned out to vote last Tuesday, substantially, notably younger electorate, people I voted stickers on than you typically see in New York and at my polling place and things like that, right?

Speaker 10 And also very notable in the data, right? So it wasn't just, it wasn't just my anternal observations from Winthrop.

Speaker 10 But younger people can be fickle. They tend not to tune into especially local politics outside of election years, right? So in practice, the squeaky wheels

Speaker 10 during fights over a budget, which by the way, a lot of it's controlled by Albany, right? Or fights over a new city policy, right?

Speaker 9 There, having vocal opposition can make your life a lot tougher.

Speaker 1 Yeah, and I will say that a second time because I think it's a really important psychological point.

Speaker 1 People in general, but younger voters in particular, younger people in particular, are fickle, right?

Speaker 1 It's not just things of the moment, but it's also, especially when you're talking about like delayed gratification.

Speaker 1 Before,

Speaker 1 like, and this happens, you know, brains mature, people mature. Like, as you get older, you understand that change takes time, that things kind of don't always happen.

Speaker 1 But we're, I think, seeing a generation right now that hasn't had to delay gratification very often, where you do have kind of instant gratification with, you know, cell phones and social media and all of these things.

Speaker 1 And so we might see a disconnect where, you know, you elect someone on these hopes and if, you know, the...

Speaker 1 promises aren't met immediately, then there's a backlash and you're like, oh, you're betraying us, right? Because they don't understand. Wait, no, like this, this takes takes time, right?

Speaker 1 Things take time. This is not, you know, this is not a betrayal.

Speaker 1 And so

Speaker 1 I do wonder how that's going to play out more broadly.

Speaker 1 So, Nate, to kind of wrap up everything here, then, if we're going to be looking towards the midterms, what do you think kind of are the issues that people should be focusing on?

Speaker 1 Because as you said, like in New York, some of these issues like crime, they didn't really work.

Speaker 1 As we were looking at the shutdown, some of the things like healthcare, they weren't really working.

Speaker 1 Kind of the let's prevent autocracy doesn't, you know, the No Kings protests did work because that was a much more succinct way of putting it.

Speaker 1 But in your opinion, what are the issues that Democrats should be focusing on going into the midterms?

Speaker 1 And how should they play their hand now that they've painted themselves into this corner with capitulating to the shutdown?

Speaker 9 Maria. Inflation, inflation, inflation.

Speaker 10 The euphemisms become, not euphemism, the term rights become affordability, which is kind of more, it's like the winnie a poo meme where it's like there's poo in a fancy anyway um

Speaker 9 call it inflation affordability that's for fucking pretentious

Speaker 9 bowden college i don't even have to pronounce that college students right bowden bowden college

Speaker 1 east coaster

Speaker 9 inflation just call everything inflation if healthcare is more expensive inflation if groceries are more expensive inflation if trump takes away food stamps even if he restores them later on inflation right just call everything inflation that's a word that people understand.

Speaker 10 I mean, affordability is a fine term. I'm not saying it's the worst political messaging of all time, but like, but yeah, and tariffs and everything else, and generalized anxiety about the economy.

Speaker 1 Um, it's the economy stupid, Nate. Is that what you're saying?

Speaker 9 Yeah, which is why I thought Democrats should have shut down the government. But you know, but healthcare also gets to affordability, right?

Speaker 9 What these are actually tax credits that help you to pay for healthcare.

Speaker 10 By the way, Obamacare is

Speaker 10 increasing,

Speaker 10 The premiums are increasing irregardless or regardless of these subsidies, right? They also are getting more expensive. People will notice that.
And like

Speaker 10 Republicans will probably say, hey, look, I'm sure Trump will say, like, this proves that Obamacare is broken.

Speaker 10 I don't want to get into a bunch of economics just late in the episode about like the individual mandate and things like that, right?

Speaker 10 But the thing is, when you are the president, I mean, look, if there's one good thing from Democrats from the shutdown and how the polling went down, right?

Speaker 10 It's like that plus the elections, we're evidence that like when you are are the president in power, then you get blamed for shit.

Speaker 10 And in some ways having like a nameless, faceless party makes it even harder for you to get blamed.

Speaker 10 That's probably the reason I think Schumer, you know, have someone fucking relatively anonymous, probably some fucking Chris Murphy or some fuck who wants to like get on meet the press all the time.

Speaker 9 Like Chris Murphy was better on the shutdown than a lot of people. I think he I think he was more honest, right? But like, you know, you're going to have some media whore.

Speaker 9 Is that is that this is going to all be edited out by the producers probably.

Speaker 1 And

Speaker 1 on that fine note, no,

Speaker 1 I actually think that that's

Speaker 1 you've made

Speaker 1 several important points that I think we can use to sum up simplifying the messaging and making it something that is kind of more emotional, more visceral, like

Speaker 1 inflation, affordability.

Speaker 1 This affects your pockets right now. It's not other people, right? It's not immigration.

Speaker 1 It's not things that are not affecting me. It's things that are affecting my ability to live, kind of my ability to live the life that I want to live.

Speaker 1 And I think that that is a powerful message, obviously, for either party, but one that the Democrats have kind of had been losing sight of for a long time.

Speaker 9 Yeah, look,

Speaker 9 my final thought here. It's been unusual to be actually a citizen in the city where my vote mattered in a somewhat close election.
Democrats, excuse me, not a Democrat. I'm actually a Republican.

Speaker 9 I've explained that before on this show, right? Yes. But as a citizen of New York, in national general elections, your vote usually doesn't matter.

Speaker 10 It's interesting having to kind of think through this. If we do a segment on how I decide to vote, that's a difference.

Speaker 10 I'm not going to reveal that info to you today, audience, right? But like,

Speaker 10 what I will say is, like, if I do an issue matrix thing where I'm like, here are

Speaker 10 the three candidates on the 17 issues that affect New York, right? I'm not probably wouldn't wind up closer to Zora, maybe with some exceptions, right, on a few things.

Speaker 10 But like, that's not the only thing that goes into being mayor. Effective governance transcends ideology, especially for city government, right?

Speaker 9 It's like, does it get done on time, right? Yep. If there's a snowstorm, you get to school the next day.

Speaker 10 Is there good communication in public emergencies, right?

Speaker 1 How is everything running?

Speaker 1 I think that that's, sorry, I'm just, I know we're wrapping up, but this just reminds me, and I think this is so apropos, of the town in New Hampshire, I'm blanking on its name, that was very libertarian and kind of wanted to abolish everything.

Speaker 1 And they did, and it ended up being taken over by bears,

Speaker 1 which is a very funny.

Speaker 1 I think there's a,

Speaker 1 it sounds like a children's story, but our wonderful producers have just shared that there was a book on this called A Libertarian Walks Into a Bear.

Speaker 1 And that book is about this town of Grafton, New Hampshire, and what we can learn from Grafton. But yes, you know, does shit get done?

Speaker 1 How does the government end up running the day-to-day is very, very important.

Speaker 1 Let us know what you think of the show.

Speaker 3 Reach out to us at riskybusiness at pushkin.fm.

Speaker 3 Risky Business is hosted by me, Maria Konakova.

Speaker 11 And by me, Mate Silver. The show is a co-production of Pushkin Industries and iHeartMedia.
This episode was produced by Isaac Carter. Our associate producer is Sonia Gerwit.

Speaker 11 Lydia Jean Cott and Daphne Chen are our editors. And our executive producer is Jacob Goldstein.
Mixing by Sarah Bruguer.

Speaker 3 If you like the show, please rate and review us so other people can find us too. But once again, only if you like us, we don't want those bad reviews out there.
Thanks for tuning in.

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