Part 2: Josh Vs. Lamar, Mahomes’s F-You Game, and the Round 2 NFL Mega-Preview With Sheil Kapadia and Joe House

Speaker 1 Wemby and the Spurs are going to be in Austin next month. And I decided I wanted to see Wemby in Texas, and I have to go.
I'm going to see him live. But while I'm in town, let's get together.

Speaker 1 Let's do a live show at the Paramount Theater in Austin on Wednesday, February 19th. Tickets go on sale tomorrow at 10 a.m.
Central Time.

Speaker 1 Again, live, Austin, Wednesday, February 19th, the Paramount Theater, some special guests. Basically, the BS podcast just doing its thing.
Tickets go on sale Saturday at 10 a.m. Central Time.

Speaker 1 Details will be available at theringer.com slash events very soon. Hope to see you there.
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Speaker 1 We're also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network.

Speaker 1 If you missed part one of this podcast, we we put it up earlier today, and it was a mid-season PowerPoll that I got a lot of takes off on and really had a good time.

Speaker 1 And then Joel Anderson and Van Lathan joined me to talk about college football and a whole bunch of other stuff, the Ohio State Notre Dame game, Joel's five favorite things.

Speaker 1 Really fun pod, but we had to keep going because football is happening this weekend. Round two, NFL playoffs.
I have Shield Capati and Joe House joining us.

Speaker 1 We're going to break down every game, our favorite parts of each matchup, and then we're going to do some million-dollar picks.

Speaker 1 I mentioned I wanted to talk about the wildfire recovery efforts out here in Southern California. I wanted to pass, look, there's a lot of great things happening.

Speaker 1 I wanted to pass along five charities that I really like. The Wildfire Recovery Fund, which is calfund.org.
It's set up by the California Community Fund.

Speaker 1 That's just trying to get money to all the places we need as the Southern California is obviously in a major, major crisis right now.

Speaker 1 The SoCal Fire Fund, which you can find at eifoundation.org, EIFoundation.org.

Speaker 1 It provides immediate and long-term support for community-centered recovery initiatives that aid students, school employees, and families impacted by the January 2025 fires.

Speaker 1 The third one is the LAFD Foundation Emergency Fire Fund, which you can find at supportlafd.org.

Speaker 1 They provide vital equipment and fund critical programs to help the LAFD save lives, protect communities. Then there's World Central Kitchen, WCK.org.

Speaker 1 Their relief team is in in Southern California right now, supporting first responders and families impacted by wildfires in the L.A. area.

Speaker 1 They have a link at the top when you go right to WCK to help Los Angeles specifically. And then last but not least, Habitat for Humanity, which has really gotten involved in the last week.

Speaker 1 They have a disaster response fund set up on their website at habitat.org for the wildfires. So I'm committing $250,000 total, $50,000 a piece to the five that I just mentioned.

Speaker 1 And if you're listening, do whatever you want. Do whatever you can.

Speaker 1 There's no right answer for any of this, but that is, that's what I'm doing at least. All right.
We are going to talk football right now with Shield and House.

Speaker 1 Stay safe out there in Southern California.

Speaker 1 Hope everybody is good. We're going to talk some football right now.
First, our friends from Pearl Jam.

Speaker 1 All right, we're taping this. It is Thursday afternoon Pacific time.
Joe House is here because we do million-dollar picks. We'd not get to do them last week.

Speaker 1 We're going to try to bounce back strong this week. And we brought in the real star of the Ringer Sunday pregame show, Shio Caparia,

Speaker 1 who comes in every couple of weeks like Deion Waders and just crushes it. Big heat checks from you.
Congrats on that.

Speaker 3 Yeah, I said, you know, on the show, Indian Timothy Chalamet, you know, he goes on game day and just goes in, crushes it, disappears. I feel like that was my role on the Ringer-Wise Guy stuff.

Speaker 2 I mean, respectfully,

Speaker 2 everybody loves winners. We love having Shield on.
Shield comes on. All he does is give out winners.

Speaker 2 But respectfully, if you're picking one thing a week, like some of these winners were Deshaun Watson unders, like, uh-uh, okay. A.J.

Speaker 2 Brown on, you know, catches the week after he complained he bitch like oh is aj brown gonna get yes again we love what

Speaker 1 she loves what success looks like success comes with a backlash you're feeling the backlash now minus 110 or better listen that's all i look at and then i go with the pick i'm retiring on top thank you can we go right to the eagles rams game we're gonna break down all four games Shield is a is a Philly student.

Speaker 1 You can see him on the Ring of Philly special sometimes. So I do the playoff manifesto, and I'm going to read all the rules in a second.
The playoff manifesto goes back to the late 90s.

Speaker 1 I've been honing it, cultivating it, working it, adding rules, taking out rules. Eagles Rams has more manifesto rules attached to it than any playoff game I can ever remember.
Wow. It has red flags.

Speaker 1 It has come hither. This is good.
It is all over the map, which is what I could imagine you're probably feeling with these Eagles game, right?

Speaker 3 I actually feel like they're going to win pretty handily in this game.

Speaker 3 Yeah, I'm, and I'm not usually like that. I've been on the on the fence.
I wasn't sure about that Packers game. Uh, I feel pretty confident that the Eagles are going to win this game.

Speaker 3 So, I need to hear the violations they have going on.

Speaker 1 So, we got to go through the manifesto. Before we do, House, you're leaning Eagles, you're Eagles-ish too for this game, correct?

Speaker 2 I'm beyond Eagles-ish. I'm full on Eagle hump.
I mean, it's Go Birds Go.

Speaker 2 I think that that this is a terrible spot for the Rams. I think that

Speaker 2 the Eagles have advantages on both sides of the line, both defensive line and offensive line. It's like, we're playing in the freezing effing cold, and I know the team that has the better lines.

Speaker 2 Let's go. Let's go get a W.

Speaker 1 35 degrees, maybe worse. Rain and snow, potentially.
Matthew Stafford coming from L.A., I'll go through some of the manifesto rules because it really is eye-opening. Rule number one,

Speaker 1 beware of the looked a little too good the previous playoff round team.

Speaker 1 That couldn't be more Ramsey. Rule number three, beware of the nobody believes in us team.
Don't try to talk yourself into one either.

Speaker 1 I think the Rams are trying to, there's a nobody believes in us case.

Speaker 1 Rule number four, a sad one, but beware of any team that might use a major off-field distraction as a galvanizing force leading up to a game. We saw that last week.
The Rams,

Speaker 1 all the terrible stuff in L.A., it really seemed like it affected them in the game positively. Rule number six, never pick an underdog unless you genuinely believe that it has a chance to win.

Speaker 1 I'm going to stop there before I keep going with the rules. Do the Rams genuinely have a chance to win, Shill?

Speaker 3 I don't think they have a great chance. The Eagles have not lost a game that Jalen Hurts has started and finished since September 29th, week four.

Speaker 3 We've gone through this whole season where you're watching them. You're going, this passing game kind of sucks sometimes.
Every dropback is resulting in a sack or a throwaway.

Speaker 3 And then their talent usually just overwhelms the opponent. There's one play by A.J.
Brown or Saquon Barkley, or last week it's Dallas Scott or Devontae Smith.

Speaker 3 It's like they don't have to be efficient down to down. And then what House said, they've got probably the best offensive line in football.
So I add all those things up.

Speaker 3 And with as conservatively as Jalen Hurts is playing right now, for better or worse, they're not a team who's going to like give the game away. So every team always has a chance.
We know that.

Speaker 3 But when you read that one out loud, that that really rang true to me.

Speaker 1 House is Sam Darnold. Is it true he's living in your attic right now?

Speaker 2 I mean, he's welcome.

Speaker 2 And by the way, he's still going to get a great contract. It's not going to be the massive contract, but still, I mean, a couple of years, 25 million bucks.
You could do worse.

Speaker 2 I mean, congratulations to him. What was his best hope for outcome when he took the ball on first down, the first play of this season?

Speaker 2 I mean, I think if you told him, how about another another couple of years and 25 million bucks? You good with that? I think he might have said yes.

Speaker 1 Unfortunately, it was the sports movie for him where the final scene was him, his teammates lifting him up after the Packers game and going nuts. And the movie should have just ended,

Speaker 1 but there was 20 minutes to go in the movie. And he got his ass kicked against by the Lions

Speaker 1 and last week against

Speaker 1 the Rams. Sheil,

Speaker 1 we didn't talk about this on the pod, at least with you. Were you surprised that Darnold cratered like that? Because he wrote me in.
He wrote me in. He roped Salon.
Did he rope you in?

Speaker 1 He kind of half roped you in, right, House?

Speaker 1 Darnold?

Speaker 2 Well, sure.

Speaker 2 A little bit. I mean, the thing that we couldn't

Speaker 2 divine on our own, it just revealed itself is that that offensive line for the Vikings suffered injuries on the left side that created some mismatches for both Detroit and for the Rams.

Speaker 1 And he couldn't,

Speaker 2 there was no, he held the ball too long. He froze.
He went back to his old DNA.

Speaker 1 Why did that happen against Green Bay? Shio, what happened?

Speaker 3 Yeah, I mean, I wrote on the ringer in like week 14, I had this piece that said the Vikings can't make the Daniel Jones mistake with Sam Darnold. And then the next three weeks, he was awesome.

Speaker 3 And I'm like, shoot, I might have screwed that one up. And I think if you zoom out, I think part of it's what Howe said, I think part of it is we probably overrated that Vikings passing game.

Speaker 3 I mean, in the regular season, they were 14th in passing DVOA. They were like statistically in the mediocre range.
And then they have these two games where you have some protection issues.

Speaker 3 And a lot of what they did was based on the explosive passing game. And if he's holding on to the football and that's taken away, the run game was never really that efficient.

Speaker 3 They weren't that methodical. So, yeah, I got roped back in.
I thought they were going to win that game.

Speaker 3 I thought that Lions game was kind of a blip on the radar and they were trending in the right direction.

Speaker 3 But it was kind of two games in a row where, you know, the ghost of Sam Darnold came back a little bit.

Speaker 1 i stayed at the craps table too long with sam darnold and with the uh

Speaker 1 with uh the steelers heading into december just should have taken my chips gone with house to get some food some 2 a.m pizza and just would have been super happy with it hey house when he said the the daniel jones mistake

Speaker 1 which i think is a great way to frame it That's basically been the philosophy of the Washington Wizards for the last 40 years, right? The Daniel Jones mistake.

Speaker 1 This guy showed some hope. Here's Here's a lot of money.
Oh, shit, we shouldn't have done that.

Speaker 2 Are we, why is there wizards violence on this?

Speaker 1 I'm saying, I didn't know if that resonated. Who cares about the wizards?

Speaker 3 I thought maybe it was. I didn't know if Daniel Jones was the guy starting for the Sixers tomorrow night because none of their guys played.

Speaker 1 So I was a little confused there.

Speaker 3 I'm glad you took the shot at the Wizards, not the Sixers.

Speaker 1 Thank you.

Speaker 1 Well, you know, Embiid, he'll be back eventually when there's not four really tough games and five. When do you play Charlotte? And Bien's going to be back for that one.

Speaker 2 Circle it.

Speaker 1 Beats got Charlotte circled. Is there a Toronto game? Oh, I'll play against Toronto.
That's great.

Speaker 1 All right. More manifesto rules.
We're not even done with this game. Beware of all dome teams playing outdoors, especially in cold weather.
Yikes.

Speaker 1 Rule number eight, beware of any and all aging QBs in cold weather unless they drink half their body weight and water and like 40 things Tom Brady did.

Speaker 1 Rule number 15.

Speaker 1 This is working against the Eagles Shield. Okay.

Speaker 1 Make sure the team with a home field advantage actually has a home field advantage. Philly's in that weird zone.
The fans, they get fickle really fast. They get upset really fast.

Speaker 1 There's an ornery vibe in that stadium. Does that, do you feel that changes this week with the snow and the rain or does it get worse?

Speaker 3 Yeah, I was in the stands those early 2000s when they had the McNabb teams and they were favorites against the Bucs and the Panthers. And the fan base was so confident going into those games.

Speaker 3 And then you saw what happened. So really, it comes down to early in the game.
If you have a few three announcements, no, it doesn't change. This is in our DNA.
This is what it's going to be like.

Speaker 3 But I think there's also a possibility that Saquon Barkley has a 35-yard run in the first quarter and all of a sudden the place is going bonkers and they don't actually have to worry about that.

Speaker 3 But yes, to answer your question, it could go either way if they get off to a slow start.

Speaker 1 It's the only out of the four home games, House.

Speaker 1 It's the only crowd that I feel like you might be able to take out in the first quarter. I don't feel like you're taking out Buffalo.
Casey's been there too many times.

Speaker 1 Detroit's going to be a madhouse.

Speaker 1 I don't feel like that crowd's going to get nervous, but I feel like you can get to the Philly crowd because there's that motto of the Eagles, that first quarter, 39 seconds of play.

Speaker 1 It just feels clumsy and discombobulated. It's 0-0 after the first quarter.
Don't you think, House? Like there's

Speaker 2 all season. They're among the bottom teams in the NFL in terms of scoring in the first quarter.
So they're not coming out and instilling confidence. They're not coming out and kicking ass.

Speaker 2 Now, they did score a touchdown within the first three minutes of the first quarter of this most recent game, but that's because of, you know, the bogus fumble that happened.

Speaker 2 And that was the only touchdown of the first half.

Speaker 2 And so, like, if you want to be frustrated with the Eagles getting going, I think, I hope, I don't know, the good people of Philadelphia, having seen Hurts get his rust off a little bit with that Green Bay game, they'll be patient and understand the best way for the Eagles to win this football game is to just run the football down the Rams throat and do it, do it, and do it.

Speaker 2 And it may take a little while to get the battering in place that that is their pathway. But Philly doesn't really strike me as a place that has a lot of patience.

Speaker 1 The only thing I didn't believe about everything you just said is when you said the good people of Philadelphia. You don't like Philadelphia.

Speaker 1 You don't.

Speaker 1 You don't like Philadelphia.

Speaker 2 You don't. Philadelphia.
Here's the thing.

Speaker 1 You're from Washington. Why would you like Philadelphia?

Speaker 2 Over the years, I've softened because of two things. There is incredible golf, super underrated golf in the Philadelphia area.
I got to play Marion

Speaker 2 last year. Marvelous.
But yes, the food in Philadelphia, again, crazy underrated. The food in Philadelphia, this we should go do.

Speaker 2 I did a Philadelphia food tour with Chris Ryan five or six years ago on the House of Carbs because, and the scene just keeps getting better and better. So I have my soft spots for Philadelphia.

Speaker 1 Yeah, so it's basically just all selfish, food and golf, the two things you care about.

Speaker 1 That's how to win over Joe House. Sheila, you agree with the food, food scene?

Speaker 3 Yeah, I want in on all of this, House. Next time you come, Marion is about 15 minutes that way.

Speaker 3 I'm pointing here.

Speaker 3 And then, you know, obviously

Speaker 3 house eating.

Speaker 1 I mean, whether I'm observing or participating, I've been hearing about this participation. Yeah.
Yeah. Yeah.
Over a decade.

Speaker 3 I've been hearing about the legend.

Speaker 1 It starts out with participating and then it turns into observing.

Speaker 1 After at about the 45-minute mark when everyone else is finished and house is still eating some health. Guilty.

Speaker 2 Guilty is charged.

Speaker 1 Two more rules.

Speaker 1 Take one last look at the quarterbacks. And remember, there's plenty of time to bet against any QB or coach.
This is specifically a Hurts question.

Speaker 1 So I know, is Hurts, what does he command on your tech, on your Eagles text thread shield?

Speaker 1 How much of the conversation is what's up with Hertz? Like 40%, 20%? What is it?

Speaker 3 Yeah, it's probably, it might be over 50%. And the conversation has been...

Speaker 3 is it hurt or is the coaching terrible? Because you'll be looking at the film and all that, and everyone's pointing out no one's open, and they're running the same play seven times in a game.

Speaker 3 And it's like, what are they doing? And then you watch some of these other offenses and they're beautiful and guys are getting schemed wide open. So that's the big argument right now.

Speaker 3 In addition to, can this team win the Super Bowl? You know how

Speaker 1 Philadelphia is. But the defense you have.

Speaker 3 Yeah, the defense is awesome. Everybody's happy with the defense.
Everybody's happy with the offensive line.

Speaker 3 Saquon Barkley Barkley might have the highest approval rating of any Philadelphia athlete, right?

Speaker 1 Oh, wow. And he's only been there for a year.
Where's this competition for that? Bryce Harper.

Speaker 1 How about this? Nobody on the Sixers.

Speaker 3 No,

Speaker 3 Maxie.

Speaker 3 Everybody still loves Maxi. So Maxie is on there.
Whatever.

Speaker 1 Bryce Harper is there.

Speaker 3 And then, yeah, but I think Saquon Barkley has only been there for a year, but I said it's the best offensive season. for a Philadelphia Eagle since I've been alive.
And I think that's true.

Speaker 3 And so I think, yeah, he's kind of taken over the fan base.

Speaker 1 Is there any explanation for

Speaker 1 the weird pace of the Eagles' offense and the lack of unpredictability and just how there's a sameness to every drive? There's a methodical nature to it, and they never zag.

Speaker 1 They never keep you on your toes. Why do they do it that way? I just don't understand it as a football fan.

Speaker 3 I think Siriani has this like Bobby Knight saying in his office that's like that the team that makes the fewer mistakes wins or

Speaker 3 whatever the quote is. That's how they play.
Like, if you watch this last game, they are running the ball on every third and long. They're being conservative on fourth down.

Speaker 3 If Jalen Hurts has an opportunity to throw the ball to A.J. Brown and he's not sure this year, he is just tucking the football, throwing it away and running.

Speaker 3 And so everything they do is kind of like, hey, our defense is awesome. Saquon's going to break one eventually.
Let's not give the game away. And so I think that's why it looks like a lot of people.

Speaker 1 So like just save as few plays as possible. Keep the clock moving.
Do you agree with that, House?

Speaker 2 I kind of do. It does fit the,

Speaker 2 you know, the personnel that the Eagles have. We did think that Kelvin Winslow was going to come in as a whiz-bang guy and really show,

Speaker 2 you know, some open up that offense in a way that who was the poor guy that got run out of town last year?

Speaker 1 Brian Johnson. Yeah.
Yeah.

Speaker 2 Yeah. Yeah.
There was a lot of just bad taste left in the mouth from the Ron Johnson experiment.

Speaker 1 Red Brian Johnson.

Speaker 1 All of them. All the Johnson.
Anyone named Johnson?

Speaker 2 Brian Johnson in the mouth. That's all I could say.

Speaker 1 Possible new rule. This is not in the manifesto.
I'm just going to throw it out here. It's a possibility.
Possible new rule.

Speaker 1 Beware of any home playoff favorite with a frustrated fan base that might kind of hate the team, coach, and or QB.

Speaker 3 Yeah. I don't think they're there.

Speaker 3 I think they like the team a lot because you've been.

Speaker 1 Yeah, I'm just kicking.

Speaker 1 All right. Yeah.

Speaker 3 They like the team a lot. It's probably split on Hurts and it's probably split on Siriani, I would say.

Speaker 1 So for the lean for a million-dollar picks, I think House and I, we were talking about it earlier.

Speaker 1 If I had to bet it straight up, I would take the Eagles. And I think the Rams won their game.
I think everyone,

Speaker 1 the biggest manifesto rule is Buer, the team that looked too good last week. I think they fit.
I like them more on a tease or a parlay, though. And I think that's the play with them.

Speaker 1 And if,

Speaker 1 you know, if they screw us, they screw us. But I think that's the way to go.
Are you safe with that, Shield?

Speaker 3 Yeah, I mean,

Speaker 3 this would go down as one of the darker upsets at home. And now there have been some of those in recent Philadelphia sports memory.
I think they're

Speaker 3 justifiably six and a half point favorites in this game. I would be, they could lose, but I would be surprised if they lost this game.

Speaker 1 And House, you're on board with that.

Speaker 2 Yeah, I mean, I think the Eagles are going to win.

Speaker 2 I don't mind laying the six and a half, but if you want to tease them from six and a half down to a half and just have them win outright, I'm not going to argue with you.

Speaker 1 Let's do Chiefs, Texans, really quick. Chiefs minus eight and a half over the Texans.

Speaker 1 I still feel like if they call the intentional grounding on Stroud or if that fumble shotgun that goes over his head bounces to the left and the Chargers are up 13-0, that game's probably over.

Speaker 1 It was like it gave Stroud the superpower. I wasn't really impressed with either of those teams.
Meanwhile, you got Casey, three wins from a three-peat.

Speaker 1 Andy Reid could have 29 playoff wins by mid-February. Mahomes could be 18-3 in the playoffs by mid-February.

Speaker 1 They're plus 350 for the Super Bowl, which seems high because

Speaker 1 I clearly think they're going to win this game. And now you're just, you basically have plus 350 for two games.

Speaker 1 The one that jumped out to me, though, this was in Debundo's column about how Casey has failed to cover every seven-plus spread this season. Yeah.

Speaker 1 0-7, even though they won all of those games, Shield.

Speaker 1 So this looks like the classic just put them in a tease parlay because this is just what they do. They win by seven, they win by four, they win by three.
And yet, I like how the Chiefs look lately.

Speaker 1 This is the best version of them we've seen this year. Could this be a little bit of a breakout party for them? Where are you leaning?

Speaker 3 Yeah, Debundo scared me with that one too, in his column, but I feel the same way. I feel like the Chiefs have a lot of things going for them in this game.

Speaker 3 Like the way they want to play is get the ball out quickly, methodical drives downfield. And that's the way you want to play against a team that has a great pass rush with the Houston Texans.

Speaker 3 So this isn't going to be like a new thing for them where they got to play left-handed or whatever. That's how they want to play.

Speaker 3 And to your point, that's how they were playing down the stretch of the season, where it was just long, methodical drives, the ball's not hitting the ground, Mahomes' short completions go down the field.

Speaker 3 So I like them offensively there. And then defensively, CJ Stroud is 29th against the Blitz this year.

Speaker 3 When you look at all the efficiency numbers, I like to look at Chiefs Blitz at the fifth highest rate in the NFL. So I'm with you.
I didn't watch that Texans game last week.

Speaker 3 I wasn't like, wow, I feel differently about their offense. This was the worst offense of any team that made the playoffs by DVOA.
And so I think they're going to have issues offensively.

Speaker 3 I think there's a chance they could ugly up the game a little bit with their defense and their pass rush. But I like the Chiefs, but I think you're right.

Speaker 3 If it is a slow game, maybe bump the Chiefs down and do do a teaser.

Speaker 1 So Chiefs,

Speaker 1 eighth run, eighth against the run, fourth QB hits, six QB hurries, 11th tackles behind the line of scrimmage. House,

Speaker 1 there's a random non-nerd

Speaker 1 sports hack talk case with Mahomes where it's been Lamar and Josh for three, four weeks here.

Speaker 1 And Mahomes is kind of shoved to the side. He's like, old guy Mahomes, even though he's like 27, 28.
It's like, oh, yeah, and Patrick Mahomes.

Speaker 1 But all the hype with this Lamar versus Josh and everyone talking about them the whole year and the Ravens and they're the best team. And it's just fucking fuel for that.

Speaker 1 Everything we know about Mahomes, this is absolute fuel for this dude. And I wonder if this is, he pulls it out this week, house.

Speaker 1 He waves it around and he does the lasso. And he's like, this is the first game of the weekend.
Hey, by the way, I'm Patrick Mahomes. And he just does 17 Mahomes things and reminds us how great he is.

Speaker 2 Well, part of what is going to facilitate that is the health, the restored health for Kansas City, really on both sides of the ball, but definitely on offense.

Speaker 2 All of their weapons will be available. One of my very favorite bets on the FanDuel Sportsbook is Patrick Mahomes over one and a half passing touchdowns.
It was like minus 144.

Speaker 2 I have no issue whatsoever with laying it. And I'll probably parlay that with Kansas City to win outright.
That's fine.

Speaker 2 I love the narrative aspect of this that you're describing bs which is we're going into a weekend where everybody is absolutely appropriately fantasizing about what's going to come between josh allen and and and and lamar jackson and patrick mahomes and the first game of the weekend is like y'all i'm still here i'm right here i'm looking for a three peak guys hey i'm right i'm right here yeah winner still has to go through me i just I think those certain guys are like Brady was always wired like this, and he's talked about it pretty openly.

Speaker 1 Like these guys take everything personally, they take every slate, they notice everything, they pretend they don't, but they do. Shield, does this add up to you at all?

Speaker 1 This could be an FU performance from Mahomes, yeah, absolutely.

Speaker 3 It could be an FU playoff front. I mean, they are well positioned, they are monster favorites at home, and then they're going to get to face whichever team lost that Ravens-Bills battle.

Speaker 3 And then it should be a battle, yeah, and then they're potentially in the Super Bowl.

Speaker 3 So, uh, absolutely, from the narrative stand not getting mentioned with you know, all-pro, MVP, all those conversations that happen this time of year, And all they are are the one seed in the AFC going for a three-piece.

Speaker 1 So one bet, and this is something we saw last week with the quarterbacks that you don't want them to run during the first 18 weeks of the season.

Speaker 1 But when we get to the playoffs, you start using your legs more. And this has been house.
We've cashed in on this with Mahomes so many times. Like, he's basically even odds, 25-plus yards this week.

Speaker 1 against Houston. We know he does this in the playoffs.
In the playoffs, he starts moving around more, taking more chances using his legs.

Speaker 1 So, you know, I thought last week I was mad that I didn't think of that with

Speaker 1 Lamar. It was so obvious that, of course, they were going to do that.
Of course, he was going to use his legs like that.

Speaker 1 With the Texans,

Speaker 1 their D-line's really good. That's the one, like, their ends can put some pressure on.
And the Chiefs' tackles make me nervous.

Speaker 1 And as I play the game out of my head, Shield, that's the one thing I keep coming back to is like, let's say this is just one of those weird, classic, ugly first half Chief playoff games.

Speaker 1 They're putting pressure on Mahomes. They get the one long Nico Collins pass.
Chiefs guy fumbles a punt, and all of a sudden it's like 10-7 Texans at halftime. We're like, what the hell is going on?

Speaker 1 My tease is in danger. What's happening? I don't see another scenario other than that.
Is there anything else we're not thinking of?

Speaker 3 No, that's the biggest thing. Their pressure against those tackles is one.
Two is the Chiefs are 30th in explosive plays.

Speaker 3 The only teams that create explosive plays at a lower rate than them have been the Raiders and the Browns. So they are going to have to work at it.

Speaker 3 And if you kind of shrink the game and all of a sudden you have a weird fumble or a weird penalty and you ugly it up that way, then maybe the Texans have an opportunity here.

Speaker 3 The other thing is, if you still believe in C.J.

Speaker 1 Stroud and feel like this season has it.

Speaker 3 I still like him. I don't like him here in this spot.
Like if you asked me if we're doing a pot in August and how do I think he's going to perform? I think he's going to bounce back next year.

Speaker 3 I don't think he has it this year. But if you think he does have it this year and he comes in and has him and Nico Collins combined for, like you said, 160 yards, maybe that keeps him in it.

Speaker 3 I don't see it with their offensive scheme, their offensive line. I think he's going to have a tough day.

Speaker 1 He's an unusual quarterback because during the same game, it can feel like he lost his confidence and then he completely gained it back and is like has swagger.

Speaker 1 And it's all happening over the course of three hours. And you saw it happen last week.
The playoff manifestos for this one, this is a big one.

Speaker 1 Rule number six, never pick an underdog unless you genuinely believe it has a chance to win. And this has been something that's been really helpful over the years.

Speaker 1 And if, look, if you bet, if you pick Casey minus eight and a half and they don't cover

Speaker 1 the odds of threading that needle between the higher number and them winning, like, you know, we call it, I, I'm just, I just want to pick winners and not worry about the Lions.

Speaker 1 So maybe a little bit less on that, but I don't think Houston has a chance to win. I don't think they're good enough.

Speaker 1 So that's one. Beware of all dome teams playing outdoors, especially in cold weather.
Boom, Texans.

Speaker 1 There's a beware of any team that reminds you of the 2007 Giants rule.

Speaker 1 I just want to, I don't think the Texans remind me of the 2007 Giants, but I just wanted to talk it out. There's a couple similarities, right?

Speaker 1 Mixon running the ball, kind of a younger, erratic, up-and-down quarterback like Eli in 2007, a good pass rush, a really good coach.

Speaker 1 There's elements, but I'm not willing to go there. Sheila, you agree?

Speaker 3 I don't think so. Yeah, that would shock me.

Speaker 2 House? The Mixon thing, especially, is a stretch. Like, he only runs well against teams that are, you know, that permit it and the game script.

Speaker 2 Like, he had 60 of his 100 yards on the last drive of the game where Houston really closed out that game.

Speaker 2 Otherwise, he had

Speaker 2 a very average day. And that's really been the story of Joe Mixon this entire season.
Like, they came out with an offense that looked super formidable when everybody was healthy.

Speaker 2 I thought, oh, this is the version of Houston that's going to win this division and maybe win 12 games or something and really be a threat.

Speaker 2 And then they had the injuries and their offensive line never was up to the task. And that's the problem with Mixon.
They're just not, you can't establish the run

Speaker 2 with the offensive line that they have. And they ain't establishing the run against the Chiefs.
I'll tell you that much right now.

Speaker 1 Rule number 16 is take one last look at the quarterbacks.

Speaker 1 It's Mahomes versus Stroud. Mahomes has lost three times.

Speaker 1 He lost the D-Ford game to Brady, his first year as a starter, where if DeFroward doesn't, it's one of the great breaks in the history of Boston sports, DeFord jumping off sides. You have that.

Speaker 1 You have him get his ass kicked by Tampa in the Super Bowl, where, you know, there's real reasons for that. Tampa's defense was great.
They were able to pressure him the whole game.

Speaker 1 It was a little bit of a goofy KC season. So that was the second one.
And the third one was the game

Speaker 1 House and I lost incredible amounts of money on.

Speaker 1 when the Bengals beat the Chiefs, where Mahomes got concussed at the end of the second quarter and they pretended he wasn't, but something happened, and he was never the same the rest of the game.

Speaker 1 My point is, it's very unusual for Patrick Mahomes to lose in the playoffs, and I feel pretty safe about putting money on him against the Houston Texans, guys. Yeah, so agreed.

Speaker 2 I think we're unanimous.

Speaker 1 Okay, great. We're going to take a break and hit the other two games.

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Speaker 1 Visit the website for full terms and conditions. All right, our third game: the Lions against the Washington Seawards, the beloved team of Joe House.

Speaker 1 So

Speaker 1 here are the rookie quarterbacks that have made the conference title, Game House.

Speaker 1 The true rookies.

Speaker 1 Brock Purdy.

Speaker 1 Mark Sanchez.

Speaker 1 Joe Flacco.

Speaker 1 Ben Rothesberger.

Speaker 1 Sean King.

Speaker 1 Daniels is the most talented of all of those guys.

Speaker 1 His team needs him the most out of all of those guys.

Speaker 1 And I'm just pointing that out because it's so Brady first year as a starter made the Super Bowl. Mahomes' Mahomes' first year as a starter almost made the Super Bowl.

Speaker 1 So if you think he's on that class, maybe that's a better comparison. Does Daniels have it in him to win two playoff games and drag this team to the conference title game?

Speaker 2 Are you asking me that question? I am. Hell no.

Speaker 2 And it's not, it doesn't have anything to do with Jaden Daniels. He doesn't get to play defense.
I mean, the problem is

Speaker 2 that the offense, they will have a great game plan and they will do their best to shrink the game. They will try

Speaker 2 and have long drives.

Speaker 2 They'll try and replicate what they did against Tampa. In that game, both teams had exactly seven possessions.
That's the best way for Washington to have a chance. They go,

Speaker 2 every possession is a four-down possession. There's no such thing as three downs and punt with Washington unless, you know, they're

Speaker 1 fourth and nine or something. Yeah.

Speaker 2 And on the very much on the wrong side of the field. That's exactly right.
But Jaden Daniels can't control the defense and the defense, God bless them. It's been been don't break all season long.

Speaker 2 They've put that offense in position to go win six consecutive last possession games. The last possession of the game for Washington, they've won.

Speaker 2 That is, it's an absolute miracle. And Jaden Daniels has been a tremendous,

Speaker 2 like you, you, the hyperbole for his performance, you know, I can't overstate how much he's done to transform this franchise, but he doesn't play play defense. So

Speaker 2 it's not up to him.

Speaker 1 So everything House just laid out, Shiel, this is why I'm not betting it because I always lose on over-unders, but the over-under seems so high to me. It's 55 and a half.

Speaker 1 The Lions, I think, are 33.5, the over-under for their total points on Fandel. And I agree with House.

Speaker 1 I think Washington's going to try to have these long-ass drives and try to keep it to seven possessions on each side. And that's it.
Why does everybody think this is going to be a shootout?

Speaker 3 Yeah, I'm with you. I'm with House.
House nailed it. Like an average NFL game, you get 11 possessions in a game.

Speaker 3 And so everything about this commanders game plan has to be lean into the variance, like House was saying.

Speaker 3 If it's only seven possessions and now Jared Goff has a pass deflected at the line of scrimmage that somebody comes down to.

Speaker 1 Swiss fumbles. Yeah.

Speaker 1 It has a bigger impact.

Speaker 3 Exactly. And that's how the commanders want to play.
Methodical, long drives, run the football, complete passes at a very high rate. So they've got that in them.

Speaker 3 And then the same thing about the fourth down stuff. Like if they're in the red zone, if they're on the, you know, past midfield, they need to be aggressive, a fake punt here and there.

Speaker 3 Like when you're an underdog of this magnitude and you're facing an offense and such a mismatch with the Lions offense against your defense, I think that's how you have to play. So

Speaker 3 I would not go against Jaden Daniels in a big spot.

Speaker 3 I mean, I don't know that there's another quarterback in the NFC that you say, hey, if you take the Lions here minus eight and a half and it's whatever, a three-point game, a five-point game in the fourth quarter, and the commanders have fourth and six, like I want to be on the Jaden Daniels side on that because he's come through over and over and over again.

Speaker 3 And there's a couple schematic things here. I mean, we know how the Lions play man coverage and they want to blitz.

Speaker 3 Jaden Daniels, very good against man coverage because he can use his legs and he has killed the blitz this year.

Speaker 3 Like all those rookie quarterbacks you named, as you were reeling them off, I'm like, that guy had a great team. That guy had a great team.
That guy, like Jaden Daniels doesn't have a a great team.

Speaker 3 He's putting the team on his back. And, yeah, so I took the commanders with the points just when I pick every game.
So I don't like being on the other side of that guy.

Speaker 1 Also, in a dome against not that good defense. It doesn't seem like the crowd's going to bother him because it doesn't seem like anything bothers him.

Speaker 1 And the amazing thing is how much they fucking trust him, House.

Speaker 1 Like

Speaker 1 some of the things they were asking him to do in the second half, it was like he's like 32 years old.

Speaker 1 That little

Speaker 1 lob screen pass that was one of the key plays of the game. That's a, I mean, nine things can go wrong in that play, but they trusted him.

Speaker 1 And it just seems like over and over again, he has the wherewithal to know what to do in the right spots. He's really exciting.
I think the line's too high.

Speaker 1 I'm not going to put like a ton of money on Washington or anything, but I, you know, I was looking at the alt line of Washington plus four and a half as plus 182 on Fandu.

Speaker 1 I think this could be a close game. It reminds me of some of the games last year when when we had, you know, Green Bay as a big underdog.
We had Tampa as a big underdog.

Speaker 1 The Rams were an underdog at one point. Like, I think they can score.
And I think even if they're down 14 plus, they can make, you know, get a cheap touchdown down the stretch.

Speaker 1 I just, I think the line's too high.

Speaker 2 So that's the case, right? Nine and a half is a big number when you have a quarterback on the other side like Jaden Daniels. And Washington will play this entire game all the way out, right?

Speaker 2 There's not, they're not going to do an El Foldo here. And so even if the Detroit's up 17 points with six minutes left and Washington gets the ball and goes down,

Speaker 2 they could score a touchdown and get a two-point conversion and you lose your bet because

Speaker 2 they take it from 17 down to nine and you've lost the nine and a half point cover.

Speaker 2 It's a great tease candidate. I mean, the thing with Detroit that I really believe is going to be the big swing here is they're going to establish the run.
If David Montgomery is back and is

Speaker 2 in full full force, they're going to establish the run and just run the football down Washington's throat. And

Speaker 2 they might get explosive with it. Like they might, because if Jameer Gibbs gets outside, he gets gone.
It just could be a couple quick scores.

Speaker 1 That's my fear. Like, you just, I always write down all the different stats and see how them teams match up in the offense versus defense.

Speaker 1 And you just see that Washington defense 30th against the run,

Speaker 1 Detroit sixth with the run, and that was without Montgomery the last couple of weeks. And the fear would be Detroit just rushing, you know, 49 carries for 270 yards one of those games.

Speaker 1 Manifesto rules. Beware of the nobody believes in us team.
Is Washington a nobody believes in us team house? Because it seems like there's belief.

Speaker 2 I think there's belief. I mean, certainly here in Washington.
And I think, you know, Jaden Daniels, this is part of the joy of being a Washington fan.

Speaker 2 He's captured the national imagination because of how of his stones. He has the biggest balls of any athlete in Washington that I can think of.

Speaker 2 I mean, Ovie came in with big balls, but then Sidney Crosby kicked his ass for a while. Ovie finally sort of got the Stanley Cup, and he's threatening the Great Ones' record.
And Bradley Beal.

Speaker 1 Bradley Beal was the other one.

Speaker 2 That is, god damn it. Let's just, let's, let's move on.

Speaker 1 Well, you're talking about Washington stars with huge balls who came through in big moments. That was the other guy that jumped to mind for me.

Speaker 1 You got a bunch of pick swaps for him. You're a dick.

Speaker 1 Two more manifesto rules. Never pick an underdog unless you genuinely believe it has a chance to win.

Speaker 1 I don't necessarily think Washington's going to win, but I also don't really believe in that Detroit defense either.

Speaker 1 And part of the calculus, when you think about we're back in on Detroit, partly because their defense looks so good against Minnesota.

Speaker 1 And then the Rams, who were 26 in DVOA, also looked awesome against Minnesota.

Speaker 1 Some, Sheila, where do we stand on the Detroit defense right now? For what we know, guys coming back, all that stuff.

Speaker 3 Yeah, I mean, you look at the stats and stuff, and they're what, top five in DVOA, and they got some guys back, and they hung in there, and they had a great game plan against the Vikings.

Speaker 3 But I'm sort of with you. I want to see a little bit more.
When we saw the Rams do that to the Vikings, I had the same thought: like, all right, let me rethink what I think about that Lions defense.

Speaker 3 So, I don't know. I think the Lions, I picked them to win the Super Bowl before the postseason began.
I still think they're going to win this game.

Speaker 3 But if you told me, hey, which of these big dogs is going to actually win this weekend, Commanders, Rams, or Texans? I'm riding with Jaden Daniels out of those three.

Speaker 1 I think I agree with that, House. Yeah.
I'm not just saying that because you're here.

Speaker 2 I love it. No, I love it.
And the case, that's the best case, right? Is that Jaden Daniels and Washington controlling the ball and offense?

Speaker 2 They play defense by playing great, efficient offense, and that's their best opportunity.

Speaker 1 House, is it possible for you to talk about the resurgence of Washington football over the last 12 months without breaking into tears?

Speaker 2 I mean,

Speaker 2 tears, where we're beyond tears. Like, this is

Speaker 2 what it's done for my libido, for my love life, it's just been unbelievable.

Speaker 1 It's like a Viagra.

Speaker 2 It's better than that.

Speaker 2 I'll tell you what, it's better than that.

Speaker 1 So, Washington ultimately is a football town, and this brought it back after Danny Snyder basically injected medicine into everybody's bodies to put them into a medical coma the entire time he was an owner.

Speaker 2 It was worse than that. And Danny Heifitz of The Ringer, a great story on the ringer.com about the return of Washington as

Speaker 2 a place where good football can happen. We have this legacy, this unbelievable,

Speaker 2 you know, 20 years of success that

Speaker 2 a bad owner came in and ruined. He ruined it for three generations almost.
Like there are people in my life who are like, this is our first playoff win.

Speaker 2 You know, there are, there are young folks here who never saw any of the old glory days with Joe Gibbs

Speaker 2 the high-flying Washington attack. And it's just, you know, this city.

Speaker 2 It's our football city. It's back.
It's back.

Speaker 1 Yes. Shoot, when I met House in 1988

Speaker 1 and we went to college together for you were a year ahead of me, but 88, 90, 88, 89, 90, 91.

Speaker 1 And Washington was like, they were probably the team.

Speaker 1 There was a bunch of successful teams in the 80s, but they were the most consistently successful over like a 12-year span, all all the way through the Ripon Super Bowl.

Speaker 1 And that's how I knew you as this confident football fan. And then I gradually watched it get beaten out of you.

Speaker 2 Well, it coincided with the Patriots getting good and Tom Brady. Think about how bad that was for me.

Speaker 1 Well, we both sucked in the 90s and then it went back. But is it, Shio, is it weird for you that Washington has hope again? Because you've probably kind of given up on them as an Eagles fan.

Speaker 3 Yeah, when I was first following the Eagles, it was those teams you're mentioning, and they were better than the Eagles. And there has been this long run.

Speaker 3 I mean, the Giants have been one of the worst teams in the NFL the last decade. The Commanders have been hopeless.
Now it's flipping a little bit.

Speaker 3 I will say, you know, there's a lot of love there for Josh Harris.

Speaker 3 I mean, if Josh Harris wants to buy the Wizards and give up the Sixers and just be a full-time DC guy, I think that would be okay with the biggest franchise trade.

Speaker 2 Philly hates Josh Harris. The Sixers,

Speaker 2 they are so out on him as the Sixers owner. I hear it all the time from my Philly people.

Speaker 1 It's funny that you can be good at owning one team and then bad at owning the other team. Yes.
But it's basically like you would think it was something of the same skill set.

Speaker 1 All right. So we're going to lean toward

Speaker 1 so lions and a parlay or tease. We're all good with that.
Yeah. And then maybe, maybe a little hedge washing bet, like a little tiny one house.
You can do it. I'm not participating.

Speaker 2 But you do it. You do it.
You do it.

Speaker 1 All right. The big kahuna

Speaker 1 Ravens Bills, which flipped. It was Bills minus one and a half, and now it's Ravens minus one and a half.
as predicted on this podcast with Sal on Sunday.

Speaker 1 There's so many ways to go with this. And a couple of people have brought up versions of this, but I feel like I've been alive long enough that I've seen a lot of these.

Speaker 1 Like people throw in like the great QB matchups, and they just grab two people who are really good. To me, it's different than a great QB matchup.

Speaker 1 It's a point of the career QB matchup, which I think is completely different and a lot more special, right?

Speaker 1 So I wrote down: like, when we were in college, Montana and Elway played in the Super Bowl, and it was really meaningful. Elway felt like this one-man band.

Speaker 1 Montana had a chance to be like the greatest ever. And it was like, who's winning this? And just that moment felt important.

Speaker 1 Elway Favre was really fun. Elway had already won.
Favre was kind of the next L Way. Elway's trying to go back to back.
Favre's like the next guy. That was like a QB moment.
06.

Speaker 1 Some people would say 03, 04, but Brady wasn't Brady really until 06. I don't personally think.

Speaker 1 06, he had nobody. The Colts were the team.
He goes in there in Indianapolis. It's Brady versus Manning.
Manning's never beaten him in a big game. Manning comes back from 18.
That was awesome.

Speaker 1 Brady versus Russell Wilson, would you put that in there for where we were with Russell Wilson in 2014 in the Super Bowl, already winning a Super Bowl? Felt like he was heading toward Rodgers.

Speaker 1 Is he not quite good enough, Shiel?

Speaker 3 I think not quite good enough. That was still the defense, I feel like, was the identity of that team.

Speaker 1 House, you agree? Totally agree with that. We'll cross off them.
2018,

Speaker 1 Brady versus Mahomes in KC, AFC title game. And then same thing 2020 when Brady was on the Bucs.

Speaker 1 That was the last time that Brady Mahomes was like the old, the old Wisen champion versus the new upstart.

Speaker 1 This Lamar Josh battle is so unusual because neither guy has won. And they're at this awesome point in their career.
Even like I mentioned, 06, 98, Montana Elway, like one side had won.

Speaker 1 This one, neither guy has won. And it's, they're competing against each other for the right to now have to then beat Patrick Mahomes.
Yeah. It's a really unusual game.

Speaker 1 Shio, can you remember any matchup quite like this in football? We've seen it in basketball, but not in football.

Speaker 3 No, this is because of the legacies. And they're both still young in their career.
So I still think like there's going to be a lot of narratives that come out of whichever quarterback loses.

Speaker 3 And I'm probably going to be the nerd being like, relax like that. You know, it wasn't all on that guy.
Yeah, they're going to to get there eventually.

Speaker 3 But it's been the same conversation around both these guys, really, to a large degree. They're both among the top two or three MVP candidates pretty much every year.
You have them on your team.

Speaker 3 They get offensive coordinators paid. They get other players paid.
It's like they are the star of the show. And you can't

Speaker 1 too. There's nobody like either guy.

Speaker 3 Exactly. So you have that as well.
And so it's just a matter of time before one of them breaks through.

Speaker 3 I'm not saying either of them is ever going to be there with Mahomes, but I think each of them is going to have their year. And who's it going to be this year? And who has the better supporting cast?

Speaker 3 And who has the better chance? Like, it all comes down to this matchup and how they play in this game.

Speaker 1 House, I know how you feel about this game.

Speaker 1 This just seems like a terrible matchup for Buffalo.

Speaker 1 I just don't like the matchup. It's like a basketball team that's just going against an awesome center.
and doesn't have enough size to defend the center, right?

Speaker 1 It's, it's like those three Shackiers and the Lakers where they would just play whoever. They play the Sixers, the Nets.

Speaker 1 And you just felt like, man, they just, they're the size. I just think Baltimore has too much size for this Buffalo defense.

Speaker 1 I don't see a world where that Buffalo defense can win the game, which means Allen just has to be perfect and has to have one of the great moments of his career, I think, to beat them.

Speaker 1 You agree on this seam stacked for Baltimore angle, right?

Speaker 2 That's definitely my point of view.

Speaker 2 I mean, the aspect of it that is so curious and what we'll see in this upcoming offseason, I wonder allowed, is it looks like a Baltimore has a defense that is well constructed to compete against Kansas City.

Speaker 2 I don't think that they could have anticipated what impact Derrick Henry would have on Baltimore, and they don't have a defense that is

Speaker 2 just not big enough.

Speaker 1 They're talking about Buffalo's defense. Buffalo, I'm sorry.

Speaker 2 Buffalo's front seven is just too light. They just can't, they can put everybody in the box.

Speaker 2 And that is a terrible predicament to put yourself into because Lamar really does have a next level of confidence.

Speaker 2 The way that they ran their offense against Pittsburgh last week, they just ran this option play.

Speaker 2 It was like a pick and roll.

Speaker 2 And Pittsburgh had one kind of solution for it, but

Speaker 2 just the confidence that Lamar demonstrated in his ability to make the right choice and just do it. And he didn't break a sweat.
He just was like, this is the way it is.

Speaker 2 And I just think the way that Baltimore will get off with Derrick Henry,

Speaker 2 he's going to establish. Now, I don't think he's going to run, have a 90-yard touchdown in the first touch, like he did when these teams played in the regular season.

Speaker 2 But I do think they're going to establish him. And I do think he's going to get his yards and it's going to come early.
And then that Baltimore offense opens up. And it's just a tough.

Speaker 2 I mean, I'm rooting for a tremendous game. So I want to see the very best out of out of Josh, but I just you're a lover of football.

Speaker 2 The field is tilted in my in my humble estimation.

Speaker 1 Shil, I watched hard knocks because they're doing the AFC North. So I actually watched this week's episode and

Speaker 1 they had a lot of like behind-the-scenes stuff of before the game and during the game. And Lamar is just so fucking confident in all the stuff they capture.

Speaker 1 Like confident in a way that I just don't remember seeing in the previous things.

Speaker 1 I think they all know something, they have something special with this combo, with the Lamar and Henry, that it's just unusual. It's different.
It stands out. It's hard to stop.

Speaker 1 And they have a swagger to it. You could just kind of see it.
And, and what was really interesting about it, they had Cam Hayward mic's.

Speaker 1 And near the end of the first half, when the, when the Ravens got that last touchdown. And the Steelers are on the field.
And he's like, we got to try to strip the ball. Like, I'm, I'm dead.

Speaker 1 Like, I, like, they're wearing us down. We got got to like force a turnover because he knows he was like, they were like killing them.
Um,

Speaker 1 I just don't see why that wouldn't also happen to Buffalo's defense. So, is there what world does Buffalo win this game?

Speaker 3 All right, let me make the case for the fine people of Western New York, Josh Allen.

Speaker 1 Yeah,

Speaker 3 I mean, narrative, what Josh Allen, this was supposed to be a reset year. They get rid of Stefan Diggs.
Oh, no one people are, people like me are picking the Jets to win the AFC East.

Speaker 3 All the guy does is

Speaker 3 new cast of characters on his back every week. They win that division going away.
And now he gets to the playoffs, and he's an underdog at home. He's healthy.

Speaker 3 He's one of the best quarterbacks we've seen in the last decade, and his team is an underdog. And everyone's pointing to that week four matchup.

Speaker 3 And the Bills did not have either starting linebacker in that game. They did not have Taryn Johnson, their nickel corner, who might be one of their best players on defense.

Speaker 3 All those guys are back here. And by the way, people are forgetting that the Ravens probably are not going to have their leading wide receiver in this game.

Speaker 3 Zay Flowers did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday. So you're looking at two evenly matched teams, one that is healthier, the other that is without its starting wide receiver.

Speaker 1 And

Speaker 3 you don't have to be perfect on defense.

Speaker 3 Derrick Henry is going to get yards. Lamar Jackson is going to get yards.
Can the Bills match them possession for possession?

Speaker 3 and can you get that one key turnover that one key play uh on special team so i see home field advantage home yeah i see the path for a ravens blowout you guys are right house made the great point that the bills are small up front and now you have the one team that you do not want to be small up front against and the ravens could run for over 200 uh but i'm not counting up the i was basically going to take whichever team was the dog here and just say i'm going to get that so i was just flipping a coin back and forth changing my mind all week but josh allen as a home dog like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, when these guys are home dogs, I'm just like, take them.

Speaker 3 If you lose, I'll live with it.

Speaker 1 Two playoff manifesto rules. Rule number nine,

Speaker 1 severely discount anything that happened in the first five to week, six weeks of the season.

Speaker 1 That's a good one. That's a good one.

Speaker 1 When we go back to week four, week five, like guys are out. Like, it's just stupid.
I always discount that. Rule number 16, take one last look at the quarterbacks.

Speaker 1 Here's the difference. This isn't just Allen versus Lamar.
It's Allen versus Lamar and Henry.

Speaker 3 Yeah.

Speaker 1 I like James Cook. He's good.
The Henry thing is different. And especially if they have a lead and the way they can keep it, I also feel like Baltimore's defense is just awesome against the run.

Speaker 1 And we saw it again, like for Pittsburgh, it was just the all-time worst-case scenario matchup. So for Allen, I think to beat them, he's going to have to do stuff with his legs.

Speaker 1 He's going to have to use his different receivers. It's going to be a lot of like moving the ball 10, 11, 12 play drives.

Speaker 1 I just think Baltimore is the best team, guys.

Speaker 1 Now, we've been in this spot heading into round two, and usually it doesn't work out with whoever we think that team is.

Speaker 1 I think they're really good.

Speaker 1 And I'm always like a little slow. The catch is the playoff Lamar piece.

Speaker 1 And what's interesting about this matchup is the stakes for both guys, if one of them really fails in this spot,

Speaker 1 we We talk about legacy a lot in sports, but like Lamar kind of needs this game. Like if he loses this one now with the better team,

Speaker 1 then I think it opens up a conversation where, cool, you're the regular season guy, but every year in January, we see the same thing happen. You know, what are you doing wrong?

Speaker 1 Is it when you talk about playoffs with quarterback Shield, is that fair to hang the losses on them like we do? Semi-fair, a little bit fair? Where do you stand?

Speaker 3 This is where I feel like we've swung too far in like the modern, be fair to everyone type of sports analysis.

Speaker 3 Like when I was a kid, I remember watching like a local Philly sports show and they took a pumpkin and like Michael Jordan hadn't been Michael Jordan yet.

Speaker 3 And they took a bat and smashed this pumpkin and was like, Michael Jordan hasn't done anything. He's selfish.

Speaker 3 And I'm like, all right, that was crazy. But also now we're like, you can't like this past week, oh, you can't criticize Justin Herbert or Sam Darnold or Jordan Love.
It's their offensive line.

Speaker 3 It's like, all right, that you can tell me a guy had a great regular season. You can show me the film from week 12.
When the stakes are at their highest, how do they perform?

Speaker 3 And I agree that it always, it hasn't been all on Lamar Jackson. Last year, Zay Flowers fumbles.
Like, we should point that stuff out.

Speaker 3 But also, when a quarterback doesn't play well in a big spot and they're in a certain year and it's not their first or second year in the NFL, I think it is fair to criticize them.

Speaker 3 So yeah, if these guys go up and down the field and they both play awesome and one of them loses, then no, I'm not going to be like that guy can't win.

Speaker 3 But if one of them comes out and lays an egg and turns the ball over more than they do in the regular season and their team loses, then we're allowed to. It's okay.

Speaker 3 We don't have to be like overly fair to some of these, some of these guys.

Speaker 1 I agree. I thought Justin Herbert was reprehensible last week.
Funny. And it was fun.
I don't feel like I criticized him enough.

Speaker 2 He sucked and Jordan Love sucked. And Sam Darnold sucked.
They all sucked and looked at the quarterbacks.

Speaker 2 C.J. Stroud was excellent.

Speaker 1 Jay Daniels was

Speaker 1 an hour and a half.

Speaker 2 Yeah, well, enough to win the football game. Matthew Stafford was excellent.

Speaker 2 We're allowed to say that.

Speaker 1 We're going to take a break and come back and do Million Dollar. Prischilla, you're going to stay on.
We'll do Million Dollar Picks for round two.

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Speaker 1 All right, million dollar picks round two. I'm going to throw out some possible bets.

Speaker 1 Ravens minus one and a half. We talked about Shield.
Sounds like he's,

Speaker 1 you just like the dog. You don't feel like you're you're just afraid of the game, it seems like.

Speaker 3 I took the bills in my official picks, but it was a coin flip, so yeah, don't let my opinion there change what you guys think.

Speaker 1 I'm sticking with my Malcolm Gladwell blink test on that one. I just felt before I even knew what the line was, I was like, I just like the Ravens.
I think it's a bad matchup for the Bills.

Speaker 1 If the Bills were playing the Chiefs, I'd feel better about it. I just don't like the Ravens Bills, so we're probably going to put something on Ravens minus one and a half.

Speaker 1 There's a couple parlay teaser options with Chiefs, Eagles, Lions on FanDuel. We do a little eight-point T's, even odds.

Speaker 1 Oh, we could take the Eagles all the way to plus one and a half.

Speaker 1 I know it infuriates Raheem to, but it's actually better odds than the money line parlay to do the eight-point T's and to bring everything down. There's a seven-point tease that's plus 120,

Speaker 1 and there's a six-point tease that's plus 140. So you would have Baltimore,

Speaker 1 I'm not sorry, Casey minus two and a half, the Eagles minus two and a half.

Speaker 1 Oh, no, the Eagles even Lions minus two and a half. So my instinct is the eight-point tease,

Speaker 1 and you just have to win the Chiefs. You just have to win the Lions, and then you get the free point and a half in the Eagles game, and that's even odds.
And who's going to fuck us is my instinct.

Speaker 1 Any alarms for either of you?

Speaker 3 I feel like if you lose that, you get to watch a Jaden Daniels classic playoff game.

Speaker 1 I think other than that, you're safe.

Speaker 3 So it'll be worth it.

Speaker 1 I think that Lions 33 and a half is too high, but I don't want to bet it because I could also see a world where they score like 50 points. But I just think it's too high.

Speaker 1 I think they're trying to sucker you into, it's a lot of points, especially with how we laid out the game. I like the Mahomes 25 plus rushing yards bet.

Speaker 1 That's one 15-yard scramble when he does the thing where he sticks the ball out at the end and then gets a cheap shot and tries to pretend he got knocked unconscious for a second to try to get the flag.

Speaker 1 And two more scrambles. It's like a four for 27 Shield.
Does that make sense to you?

Speaker 3 I think so. Yeah.
And the Texans like to play man coverage. They've got good corners.
So there could be some plays in there where he has to hold on to the football, make a play, and he takes off.

Speaker 2 So here's my concern, and I'm going to make a recommendation. You can't parlay this, but I prefer attempts.

Speaker 2 to yards when it comes to Mahomes because kneel-downs count as attempts and kneel-downs behind the line of scrimmage detract detract from your your rushing total so if he's in the low 30s and they are running out the football at the end of the game and he kneels down twice you're all of a sudden in the in the you know uh

Speaker 2 real danger zone of getting down to like 24 yards and you lose your bet the total for rush attempts is four and a half

Speaker 2 three rushes over the course of the game and then two kneel downs you collect on your bet yeah that's one that i like that's a motion better right there i feel like i need to take notes i'm I'm in awe.

Speaker 3 Like, that is a man who has been burned by a kneel-down at some point in the last 10, 20, 30 years.

Speaker 1 Which one do you like more? The 4.5

Speaker 1 runs or the 25-plus yards?

Speaker 3 Hal Saltney on the knee coming up.

Speaker 2 You can do both.

Speaker 1 No, I'm doing that. You can't parlay them, but that's plus 110 on Fando.
I'm going to mark that one down. So

Speaker 1 Kelsey and Hopkins to both score touchdowns

Speaker 1 plus 931.

Speaker 1 Mentioning it. Hopkins to score plus 310.

Speaker 1 It's been interesting watching them integrate him into their offense. And it seems like they really like him inside the 10.
Or usually it's Kelsey. And it seems that they like him too.

Speaker 1 I've always had bad luck with the TD bets, but I'll mention that.

Speaker 1 Stafford and Stroud to both throw a pick.

Speaker 1 So two Rode QBs against good defenses, both throw a pick, plus 195.

Speaker 2 I mean, I love that one. I think it's it's uh I like the two to one odds.
Stroud is like crazy. It's like minus 160 for him to throw a pick.
It's some crazy number.

Speaker 2 Um, so you're looking, this is really a Stafford bet. And I don't, what's the, what's the status of Higby? I mean, is he, is he

Speaker 3 I think he's supposed to play, but I don't know.

Speaker 1 Yeah. Right.

Speaker 2 That's a big.

Speaker 1 She'll seem lukewarm on the on the double pick bet. Plus 195.

Speaker 3 Listen, it's fun. My only concern would be if it's snowy, are they going with a run-heavy game plan?

Speaker 3 And then the Eagles are having one of those drives where it's like the Eagles have possessed the ball for 11 minutes in the set, so he doesn't have the opportunities to throw the pick.

Speaker 1 Great point. But listen, it's a little, you don't have to put

Speaker 1 it down.

Speaker 3 I'm not going to say no to any bet like that.

Speaker 1 Henry and Barkley both scored touchdowns plus 134 on Sunday. The little Sunday running back stud touchdown parlay.
Henry with Hurts

Speaker 1 bumps to plus 175.

Speaker 1 Tush pushy,

Speaker 1 something, five-yard scramble. Henry TD, Hurts TD, plus 175.

Speaker 2 Play both.

Speaker 1 Josh Allen touchdown is plus 105.

Speaker 1 The other thing. Do they jump out?

Speaker 3 Well, I do.

Speaker 3 When you were talking about the running backs, I like Saquon and Derrick Henry

Speaker 3 longest rush. Derrick Henry's is like 20.5.
Saquon Barkley's is 18 and a half yards. I think both of those guys are going to get the ball a lot and break one of them throughout the course of the game.

Speaker 3 So that's just if you're worried about getting cheated, like you said, on a touchdown where Saquon Barkley runs it to the one and then they give it to Jalen Hurts. That's one I would look at.

Speaker 3 I like the Barkley one specifically over 18 and a half yards as his longest rush. So pairing that with something with Henry could make sense.

Speaker 1 What are the odds on that longest rush? Do you remember? I can't remember.

Speaker 3 I think it's around minus 110, probably.

Speaker 1 House, have you ever experimented with the longest rush? I feel like I'm doing an exotic tequila shot. I'm excited.
I mean, Barkley's minus 120 for Barkley, 19 and up.

Speaker 1 And then for Henry, it's probably, I'm going to guess the same.

Speaker 1 That will be

Speaker 1 20 and a half minus 120. So

Speaker 1 try to hit both of them, probably split one, maybe lose a little to Vega, hit both. What do you think, House?

Speaker 2 Parlay them. Just put them together.
I agree with the idea that both of them are going to get them. Um, that both of those teams are committed

Speaker 2 in a way that you know, the future of the franchise is based on those two dudes going out and getting Russians. They're going to get all the touches, they're going to have all the opportunity.

Speaker 2 And if we believe in those offensive lines, then they're going to get there.

Speaker 1 Oh, it's a plus 236. Hey, now,

Speaker 1 so we need Henry for 21 yards,

Speaker 1 Barkley for 19.

Speaker 1 Let's do that. That's happening.
Come on, on.

Speaker 1 Put it on the card. Before they change the option.

Speaker 2 Put it on the card. The Shield special.
Put it on the card.

Speaker 1 All right. So we're going to add that one.
Plus 236.

Speaker 1 And then there's some most rushing yards that I thought were interesting.

Speaker 1 Henry plus 320. Barkley plus 155.

Speaker 1 The Barkley plus 155, I thought, was a little delectable. Gibbs plus 550, but Montgomery is probably going to be back.
So I don't know how many carries he's going to get.

Speaker 1 But the rushing receiving one I really liked was McLaurin. Plus 850 for most receiving yards this weekend.

Speaker 1 Some garbage time stuff.

Speaker 1 One long one.

Speaker 1 How seems dubious?

Speaker 2 Well, I kind of like it.

Speaker 2 I don't know how deep they're going to try and go.

Speaker 2 It would have to be

Speaker 2 kind of thing. But that's the thing, right? Look at the scripts for the other teams.
To me, it might be Xavier Worthy.

Speaker 1 I honestly think Worthy is going to get a ton of 60 yards what do you guys like

Speaker 3 yeah i i have one of my best bets of the weekend is mclaurin over 68 and a half receiving yards i mean they're gonna have to they're gonna have to move the ball he is by far their go-to target the lions don't have a number one corner the lions don't play the type of defense where they're gonna put a safety over top of him they're gonna say we can be aggressive and play man coverage i had mclaurin last week uh and it was uh it was fruitful he had it very early in that game and you're right two of these games are in bad weather, you know, potentially Buffalo and Philadelphia.

Speaker 3 So now, if you and maybe even Kansas City, so you get the weather aspect of it being easier to throw the ball. So, yeah, I'm in on the McLaurin over.

Speaker 1 So, plus 850, most rushing, most receiving for the weekend. I think it's worth a little dabble.

Speaker 2 I'm on that. I'm on that.
Yes. Hail, baby.

Speaker 1 And then the last one:

Speaker 1 Washington plus four and a half, plus 182. Is it worth a dabble?

Speaker 2 I'm out. So you have to, you, you can get your answer from Shio.

Speaker 3 So you have the Lions in the other

Speaker 1 T's at what?

Speaker 3 Minus.

Speaker 1 It's like a very, very hairy middle, which is why you probably don't do it. If you take the Lions, you're just rooting for the Lions.

Speaker 3 Yeah, it might be. It might conflict you, but if you didn't have the other bet, I would say, again, Jaden Daniels rule.
If it's over a field goal, why not?

Speaker 1 See, House is that, I've never seen seen House do this before with Gamling, where he doesn't want to jinx his own team. It's really interesting.

Speaker 2 The divisional round of the effing playoff has been 25 years. Like, what are you talking about? It's not surprising at all.
I haven't been in this position in forever.

Speaker 1 Okay.

Speaker 3 So we, you only have a few weeks left. I mean, why, if you're feeling it, go with it, you know? It's not like week three.

Speaker 2 You can play my, I'm just going to play my McLaurin overs to be satisfied. You made a great case.
We'll play McLaurin overs. It's fine.

Speaker 1 All right. Do we like Josh Allen touchdown for a plus one of five or no?

Speaker 1 Not really. Okay.

Speaker 2 I think, I mean, you know, decent chance they'll do it.

Speaker 1 It's time.

Speaker 1 The million-dollar picks, round two, here with Joe House and Shio Capadia. We are up $1.867 million for the season.
We took last week off. We're coming back strong.

Speaker 1 First bet, an eight-point tease on FanDuel

Speaker 1 with the Chiefs minus eight and a half, the Eagles minus six and a half, and the Lions minus eight and a half. We're teasing all them down.
It is even odds on FanDuel.

Speaker 1 We are breaking the Raheem Palmer rule. We're teasing the Eagles through the zero.

Speaker 1 I can see him like almost having a convulsion right now, but Eagles to plus one and a half, the other two just to win.

Speaker 1 That's plus 100. We're going to put 300K on that.

Speaker 1 Next bet:

Speaker 1 the Ravens, minus one and a half. Shield was nervous about this one.
House and I just think it's a no disrespect to the great people of Buffalo. Bad matchup.
Wrong team, wrong time.

Speaker 1 Ravens, minus one and a half.

Speaker 1 We are putting 250K

Speaker 1 on that one. And then we're going to dabble in some stuff.

Speaker 1 Some 10K. Mahomes, four and a half runs over, plus 110.

Speaker 1 Saquon and Henry. Saquon 18 and a half yards over longest run with Henry longest run, 20 and a half, plus 236.
That's Red Shield.

Speaker 1 I think so. So they just each bust runs were good.
It's a great one. Stafford Stroud both to throw one interception as the road quarterback in bad and potentially bad weather games plus 195.

Speaker 1 So we're doing McLaurin over 68.5 receiving yards. One dude's two small McLaurin bets?

Speaker 1 Yes. Okay.
McClaurin over 60.5.

Speaker 1 McLaurin to have the most receiving yards of the weekend, plus 850, where there's two games outdoors. He's one of the only ones indoors.
And what do you want to put in the parlays? 25K or 10K?

Speaker 1 I mean, not the parlays, the prop bets.

Speaker 2 10K is a good number.

Speaker 2 That's how people play him.

Speaker 1 10K. And those are the million-dollar picks.
For round two. Shield, happy gambling.
Good luck with the Eagles. House, happy gambling.
Good luck with the Washington, whatever your name is now.

Speaker 1 Hell yes.

Speaker 2 Hell yes.

Speaker 1 Hey, yo. All right.
Thanks, guys.

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