An NBA Six-Pack, Belichick to UNC, and Million-Dollar Picks

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Speaker 1 The Bill Simmons podcast brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network, where we put up a new rewatchables on Monday night.

Speaker 1 We did Disclosure, an absolutely bizarre movie from the 1990s with Michael Douglas and Did Me Moore. I did that with Van and Big Wise.
Go check that out.

Speaker 1 You can watch that on the Ringer Movies YouTube channel as well. We're also brought to you by FanDuel.

Speaker 1 Sportsbook, where I got to say, I've been costing them money lately, and I'm not ashamed to brag about it.

Speaker 1 We've been doing these 30-on-30s doing their during the NBA Cup rounds on Fridays, and then we carried it over to last week on Friday. And basically,

Speaker 1 it's a profit boost token. You can boost any 30-point score,

Speaker 1 30-plus. All they have to do is get to 30, anything higher.
On a 30-on-30s special bet on this Friday slate. So FanDuel listened to me.
I told them, let's do this. Let's try to get some profit boost.

Speaker 1 Let's try to win the people some money. We started doing it.
I've been tweeting out my picks on Friday. I look at the slate, start to get, I do like my favorite picks plus some long shots.

Speaker 1 I've been hitting the long shots. I'm just telling you, go check it out.
I'll be tweeting those out on Fridays. Be sure to claim your PBT

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Speaker 1 Sal has been absolutely out of his mind hot. I think he's

Speaker 1 12 and 2 on best bets, and he's not shy about telling everybody that he talks to about how excited he is about that. So there you go.

Speaker 1 So on this podcast, I'm going to do an NBA six-pack at the top because I had some NBA thoughts, even though we did a bunch of them on Tuesday with Goldsbury and Jacob. I have more NBA thoughts.

Speaker 1 So we're going to do a six-pack at the top. I talked to Seth Wickersham from ESPN, who's been on here a few times to talk about NFL shenanigans and Bill Belichick craft stuff.

Speaker 1 So Belichick went to North Carolina. We had to deep dive that and we did it for almost an hour.
It was really fun. And then last but not least, million dollar picks are just hot.
I don't know.

Speaker 1 I was trying to think of another word that would sound less braggy, but hot is the word. Million dollar picks are hot.
Joe House is going to be on at the end. We're going to try to keep it going.

Speaker 1 We're at almost $2 million profit of fake money, and we're going to see if we can bump it over there. But we've been on a good streak, and I really like the slate this week.
So, that is the podcast.

Speaker 1 We're getting up early today before the Rams Diners game as well.

Speaker 1 Birth our friends from Pearl Jam.

Speaker 1 All right, we're going to kick things off with a special part of today's episode. It is brought to you by Michelob Ultra, the official beer sponsor of the NBA, my favorite league.

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Six things I've noticed, six things I want to talk about.

Speaker 1 We hit a little of it with Jacoby and Goldsbury on Tuesday night's podcast.

Speaker 1 Specifically, we talked about Jimmy Butler and Golden State and how, from a Golden State standpoint, you saw it last night too.

Speaker 1 I think they have a two to three year window here with Curry and Draymond to compete for a title, whether they're going to win a title remains to be seen.

Speaker 1 But they need one more offensive offensive player, somebody who could take the burden.

Speaker 1 You saw in the game last night, they're up six with two and a half minutes left and just some of the worst possessions you could possibly have. They become very easy to stop at the end of the game.

Speaker 1 So Jimmy Butler is somebody that makes sense for them and kind of fits in him, Draymond, and some role players. You can kind of see it.
It's not nothing. So he makes $48.8 million this year.

Speaker 1 And he has a player option. The player option is key because everybody thinks that he's either going to opt out at the end of the year and become a free agent

Speaker 1 or

Speaker 1 he'll want to do an extension with Miami, which Miami clearly doesn't want to do because they've had a year and a half to do it.

Speaker 1 Okay, so we talked about some of that apron stuff on Tuesday and how hard it is to make trades in the NBA right now.

Speaker 1 And I was saying how, on the one hand, I kind of like it because it's a little more like the NFL. Guys are kind of stuck in their situations.

Speaker 1 You can't just decide you're unhappy in a month and be like, I want to go somewhere else. You look at Brandon Ingram, you look at Zach Levine.

Speaker 1 These are guys that are actually, well, Ingram just got hurt, but guys that were playing pretty well in situations that they weren't happy with because they didn't really have any other choice and that could be how it plays out with Jimmy Butler on the other hand we've we've already seen that he can get a little frisky if he's not happy I think Miami's feeling that pressure too and if you're Miami where are you going you're you're light years away from the Boston OKC Cleveland group you're not even really a second tier contender you're probably a second and a half tier contender And maybe you could use Butler's contract.

Speaker 1 You could put Roger with it. You could try to create a new world for yourself where you're basically just paying Hero and Bam and Duncan Robinson's last year, next year, and some other things.

Speaker 1 And you're under $110 million heading into free agency this summer with a lot of options. You might just want to blow it up and redo it.
The problem is this apron stuff.

Speaker 1 And for Miami, it's not that bad because they are not hard capped. They're over the first apron.

Speaker 1 They're under the second apron, not hard capped, which means you can actually make four for twos, three for twos, four for threes, all those kind of trades.

Speaker 1 But some of the teams that they would be trading with,

Speaker 1 it's just not realistic with the apron.

Speaker 1 Like Shams reported he had Dallas and Phoenix and some teams that I just don't think there's any way, shape, or form that there's a trade to be had with either side because of the apron stuff and because of the lack of assets.

Speaker 1 But that did lead to Jimmy's agent, Bernie Lee, getting really mad at Shams, which I loved. He's probably, he's one of my only agents that actually like,

Speaker 1 anyway, Golden State. So Golden State is hard capped at the first apron.
I swear there's not going to be a test after this.

Speaker 1 And 1.7 million under the second apron, which is key because that means they can make three for ones, four for twos, stuff like that, as long as they don't pop over the second apron.

Speaker 1 I'm sorry, this is so much math.

Speaker 1 Here's the trade. It would be Wiggins at Caminga and Melton who's out for the year, right? So that's $46.6 million and Jimmy's making $48.8 million.
Well, that doesn't work for Golden State.

Speaker 1 They also only have 14 guys. So if they do a four for one, they would have to then sign more guys to get to 14 because that's the rule.
Well, that doesn't work either. So

Speaker 1 I don't really know how it works with Golden State unless they dump one of their guys, Kyle Anderson, Gary Payton, Moses Moody, who they just signed to an extension.

Speaker 1 They would have to dump somebody to a third team. And I always get suspicious when that, when that, uh, when that becomes in play.
This is why Houston just seems like such the logical team to me.

Speaker 1 And I know they're on a high right now. They just made the NBA Cup semifinals with some help from Bill Kennedy.
Great call.

Speaker 1 Always want to call that loose ball foul when guys dive on each other, which never gets caught. You definitely want to decide a game that way.
Great job by him.

Speaker 1 The problem for Houston right now is the end-of-the-game stuff. And you saw it yesterday.

Speaker 1 As I've said before, they're probably my favorite league pass team, but the end-of-the-game stuff.

Speaker 1 is where it gets a little dodgy with them.

Speaker 1 And a lot of that has to do with Fred Van Vleet, who just has not been that good this year 16 points a game all shooting stats are down and he's also a team option for next year at 42.9 million so you could actually use van vlet as part of a mega trade right so they have stephen adams at 12.6 they have green and tate uh eight and seven and a half that are expiring so they have a lot of options too they also have a ton of picks they have a couple Brooklyn picks, they have a couple of Phoenix picks.

Speaker 1 They own some of their own first. So they have a lot of flexibility of maneuverability.

Speaker 1 And the trade that I created, being the picasso the trade machine if it's van viet and it's adams is expiring and tate's expiring and cam whitmore who i actually like who's just buried because he's got the tarot twins in front of him jalen green and you get butler and rogier back

Speaker 1 and you put a pick in that trade and miami is saving seven million just on that deal plus they get a pick they get to look at whitmore they get van voit they get to kind of stay peripherally competitive this year they could still move van voiet in a one-for-one trade if they wanted to if it was a salary close.

Speaker 1 That trade makes sense to me for both sides because it allows Miami to reboot. It allows Houston to end up with Butler, Brooks, Shangoon, Green, Rogier, Jabari, the Terra Twins, and Landell.

Speaker 1 And I already had them third or fourth in the West anyway. And I like Van Voiet.
Oh, I forgot Shepard too. I like Van Voiet, but I think they could get by without him.

Speaker 1 And you put Butler and Butler now becomes the end of the game guy. I think he'd have a chip on his shoulder.
That's the trade I'm rooting for. I just think that's a fun trade for everybody.

Speaker 1 Plus, it would be yet another Miami situation where they're doing a reboot and it seems like it's bleak and they're done.

Speaker 1 And then all of a sudden they're a 55-win team again because they make two moves. Anyway, that is number one.

Speaker 1 Leading to number two, what the hell does Golden State do if they can't get Jimmy Butler? Because I don't.

Speaker 1 I think it's be really hard to pull off. You're going to have to trade a pick in a Jimmy Butler trade.

Speaker 1 You're going to have to trade another pick to get rid of the contract you need to make it happen or put Pod Zemsky, send him somewhere else to create the thing.

Speaker 1 Like, is it worth it to trade Wiggins and Caminga and Melton and a pick and then send Pod Zemsky somewhere else to get another asset to get Jimmy Butler? I don't think it is. My advice for them,

Speaker 1 the Brooklyn Nets are in a bizarre situation right now where they're playing really well and they're overachieving because Jordi Fernandez has been a revelation as a coach.

Speaker 1 It really reminds me of Will Hardy that first year in Utah, Brad Stevens' first year in Boston. We see this happen from time to time where the coach is just too good for the tank.

Speaker 1 So Brooklyn's going to have to start sabotaging their own team. And they have Cam Johnson, who's having the best year of his career.
He's 19 a game, 45% three. Eye test looks the best he's been.

Speaker 1 28 years old. He's a little older than I think you would think he is.

Speaker 1 If I was going to stay out Audible and go after Cam Johnson and Schroeder and try to figure figure out, is there something we can do with Wiggins?

Speaker 1 Do we want to put Kaminga in that? If we don't want to pay Kaminga next year, could you turn Kaminga into

Speaker 1 Cam Johnson, basically? Could it be Kaminga and Melton for Cam Johnson? Is there some version of would you rather pay Cam Johnson 22 million than Kaminga for 30?

Speaker 1 Do you try to get Schroeder in it? Could it be Wiggins Melton and an unprotected first? for Johnson and Schroeder. Does Kaminga even need that bit?

Speaker 1 It just feels like Brooklyn Golden State seems the matchup, seems like the matchup for me. So, keep an eye on that.
I don't think Golden State's going to be able to get a second star.

Speaker 1 I don't see a scenario where they get LeBron and Bronnie back. LeBron and Bronny making 50 million combined.

Speaker 1 They'd have all the same problems that they would have trying to get Jimmy Butler that I just laid out, on top of the fact that LeBron is at his 22nd season and doesn't play defense anymore.

Speaker 1 So, Brooklyn seems like the spot for them. I'm still bullish on this Golden State team, but Curry needs some help.
Next thing:

Speaker 1 so, the Wilt 50 Club, which I just created one second ago, where you have to play 50 games and you have to average 50 points, rebounds, and assists combined at least.

Speaker 1 And it is not as easy as you think, my friends. Just

Speaker 1 since the merger, Kareem did it three times. Highest was 56 in 1971.
Luca did it last year, 52.9. Russ did it in his MVP season, 52.7.

Speaker 1 Bob McAdoo, 50.8 in 1975. Giannis is doing it right now, 50.1.
Hardin did it in 2019, 50.3.

Speaker 1 And Jokic,

Speaker 1 56.1 right now, which would be the single highest number anyone has done since Wilt and Russell were playing. So the reason it's the Wilt 50 Club, Wilt has the top six.
Will it has 10 of the top 11?

Speaker 1 Will it averaged a 78.4 points, rebounds, assists combined in 1962? That's insane. Oscar Robertson did it five times.
Pettit did it twice. Eldrin did it twice.
Walt Bellamy did it once.

Speaker 1 We don't count Walt Bellamy.

Speaker 1 Jordan's highest ever, 48.9. Shaq's highest ever, 47.1.
Bird, 45.8. LeBron, 45.6.
Kobe, 45.2. Just getting to 50 is really hard.
I like the 50 club. Let's create it.
Jokic right now, 32, 14, and 10.

Speaker 1 And he's shooting 56, 50, and 81%.

Speaker 1 33.2 PR.

Speaker 1 This season's just insane. But

Speaker 1 I don't know how high this goes because it's too high right now. It's not going to lie.
He's not going to be continuing to do the stuff that he's been doing. It's not realistic.
But could he end up

Speaker 1 31, 13, and 9? Could he end up 32, 13, and 10? I don't know. I'm prepared for anything because nobody on the team could score.
So the 50 club.

Speaker 1 I think Jokic, Kareem is the highest ever, 56.0. I think Jokic could potentially set the record.
I'm in on the 50 clip. All right, they wanted me to do a superior take, and I have one, of course.

Speaker 1 I've been thinking a lot about the fouling at the end of the game stuff because there was a Celtics Cavaliers game, which has now become infamous. I think it was a week and a half ago.

Speaker 1 Celtics are down four with under 30 seconds left. There are 18 free throw attempts in the last 26 seconds.
Both teams just were fouling each other. Everybody's like, nobody's going to shoot a three.

Speaker 1 Well, I'll foul you too. And it just becomes a foul-off.
Final score was 115 and 111. There were 20 points scored in the last 26 seconds because of all the free throws.

Speaker 1 And I think I speak for everyone. This sucks.
The free throw parade down the stretch is abominable and it feels like it's getting worse. So how do we fix it?

Speaker 1 Well, I have a regular season fix for this.

Speaker 1 If you foul somebody in the last minute of a game, no matter what the score is, whether you're leading or trailing,

Speaker 1 the first free throw counts for two points. And that's it.
And if you make it, you get basically the two points for the free throw as the game keeps going.

Speaker 1 If you miss it, you still get to shoot a second free throw, but that only counts for one point.

Speaker 1 So when we have these foul-offs at the end, Peyton Pritchard gets fouled by Cleveland, even though they're up four. If Pritchard hits one, now it's a two-point game.
And that's how it goes.

Speaker 1 And I really think it would work. I don't know who would be against it.
And let's speed these games up because the other option is the Elon Mending, which nobody really understands.

Speaker 1 Two points for your first free throw in the last minute of a game. Let's try it in the regular season.
Let's see if it works. And if it works, we do it for the playoffs.
That's my superior take.

Speaker 1 All right.

Speaker 1 Two more things really quick. Who could be next year's out of nowhere young contender? So this would be a team playing right now that a year from now,

Speaker 1 maybe would look like the Rockets right now as one of the best four teams in the West. The Rockets were 41 and 41 last year.
Maybe it looks like OKC last year when they won 57 games.

Speaker 1 The year before they were 40 and 42. Maybe it looks like Memphis in 2022 when they won 56 games.
The year before they were 38 and 34.

Speaker 1 So a team that's around 500, maybe a little bit lower, but has some pedigree, at least one young star with a chance to be like really great.

Speaker 1 Need to be around 500, need to have some other fun pieces. And there's two candidates, one for each conference.

Speaker 1 The Pistons. this is a team russillo has been very focused on i always admire rasillo's love for uh for weirdly compelling east coast teams detroit's 10 for 15

Speaker 1 played a pretty hard schedule they lost to boston twice lost to milwaukee twice lost to cleveland lost to houston lost to memphis lost to orlando uh split with the knicks and they've been hanging around a lot of these games and russell has made this point in his pod but these early afternoon

Speaker 1 like four o'clock games you're usually stuck with like whatever the 7 Eastern. So, I've actually watched some Detroit, and I've watched some Charlotte, and I like what Detroit has going.

Speaker 1 They don't have Monty Williams as a coach, which is the number of thing, but Cades, 24 points a game, seven rebounds, nine assists.

Speaker 1 Um, he has hit every sort of ceiling you would have thought he was going to hit at this point, shooting almost 40% from three. Like, he's just really good.

Speaker 1 He's somebody that you could build a team around. Um, Beasley and Harris were two pretty smart free agent signings.
They're averaging 30 a game and shooting 40% from three. Jaden Ivey's been good.

Speaker 1 They have rebounding.

Speaker 1 And I wonder, like, if I'm them,

Speaker 1 fuck it. Do I do a trade? Do I try to get, you know, Brandon Ingram's on a discount? Zach Levine's on a discount.
CJ McCollum's on a discount. Do I think about Jimmy Butler?

Speaker 1 They don't have to worry about any of this apron stuff. This could be another Cam Johnson team.
This is actually kind of a perfect Cam Johnson team.

Speaker 1 I wonder if Detroit is going to look at what happened with Orlando and OKC the last couple of years and what's happening with Houston this year and think like, hmm, I wonder if we make one move here.

Speaker 1 Could our ceiling increase, especially if Miami goes backwards. Indiana's already gone backwards.
Could we be a top 16 potentially? So I'm watching them.

Speaker 1 The other team is obviously San Antonio, who's 12 and 12, which is surprising because I haven't really enjoyed watching them. Sohan Castle and Johnson shooting 27% for three combined.

Speaker 1 Chris Paul, better season than we expected, but he's old and who knows with him. But the foundation I like.
They have Wemby and Castle and Harrison Barnes and Pauls. They have some good bets.

Speaker 1 They have a couple heat check dudes, and they have a lot of picks. They have a shitload of picks.
And I wonder, is that a Cam Johnson team?

Speaker 1 Probably not a Jimmy Butler team, but could it be like a CJ McCollum team?

Speaker 1 I'm watching them to see,

Speaker 1 are they just going to be happy to be a 500 team again? I don't know why they would be because they're going to be too good to tank. They're not going to be in the top five or top six.

Speaker 1 So maybe think about going for it.

Speaker 1 Which leads me to the sixth and last thing for the six-pack, Atlanta, a team that I really liked before the season. You probably remember from the over-under pod.

Speaker 1 House and I went all in on their over.

Speaker 1 A team that I mentioned last week. When House and I, after a million dollar picks, we talked about W Futures.

Speaker 1 I doubled down when I was in Denver last week on FanDuel with the Atlanta over-under stuff because it was third eight and a half. Right now, they're 14 and 12.

Speaker 1 They upset the Knicks last night, and it wasn't even really an upset. I thought they kind of dominated them in the second half.
And I really do wonder if that was a playoff series.

Speaker 1 I would be super scared if I was the Knicks because they don't really have a way to control the Trae Young dribble slash dribble penetration, whatever we're calling it these days.

Speaker 1 Their wings kind of match up against the Knicks wings, the Atlanta wings. They have rebounding.
It's just, I think that's a dangerous matchup for them. They're third in pace, which I like.

Speaker 1 And I wonder if Atlanta has a real chance to become this year's pacers.

Speaker 1 The key for them, two things. One is the three-point shooting.
Daniels is only at 31%. Reese Deshea is 28%.
Trey's 31%, which is bad. Hunter has been overachieving.
He's 45%.

Speaker 1 But can those swings start hitting more threes? Then secondly,

Speaker 1 what are we getting from Trey?

Speaker 1 I think... This is it.
I think we've hit the, let's figure this out once and for all moment with Trey, almost like a political candidate for an election.

Speaker 1 He's been dining off that conference finals thing for a few years now, which I think we all know happened because Embiid was super banged up.

Speaker 1 There were a couple fluky games, and Ben Simmons basically had a basketball mental breakdown and just completely lost it for whatever reason.

Speaker 1 Trey this year, 21 and 12, 12 assists a game solid. 38% shooting, 31% from three, which doesn't stop him from launching the 29-footers.
Free throws are down to six a game. They used to be at nine.

Speaker 1 Turnovers highest they've ever been, 4.6.

Speaker 1 And with all that said, this is the perfect team for him. He's got swings everywhere.
He's got a bunch of guys to protect him on defense.

Speaker 1 Daniels, whoever the other team's point guard is, you saw it with the Knicks game with Brunson. Daniels can guard every team's point guard, small guard, whoever it is, Mitchell, Garland, name a guy.

Speaker 1 You can put Daniels on him. They're playing the Bucs.
He can can guard Dame Lillard. He can guard anybody in the league who's under 6'8.

Speaker 1 And Jalen Johnson, you know, if you're ranking the swings, Jalen Johnson, Daniels, O.J. Nanobi, and Bridges,

Speaker 1 I think I would take Jalen Johnson over the other three guys. And Daniels is going to be a first-team NBA defense guy.
So

Speaker 1 perfect spot for Trey. He's got rebounding.
He's got shot blocking. He's got lob guys.

Speaker 1 He's got tall, interchangeable shooters all over the place.

Speaker 1 And I don't, I was thinking, like, what would the trade be? Should maybe they go get Cam Johnson.

Speaker 1 It's like, I'm not even sure they need to do a trade, especially now that Bogdanovich is back and they have some six-man scoring stuff. It really comes down to Trey Young.
How good is he? Because

Speaker 1 he is in the perfect race car for him right now. And maybe over the course of these next 20, 25 games, he's going to start figuring it out.
He's a guy that you saw in the next game in MSG.

Speaker 1 The bigger the stage, the more he seems to like it, whether he's missing 29 footers or not.

Speaker 1 He's one of the, him and Lamello are the two irrational, confident superstars that we have right now.

Speaker 1 And if we are ever going to find out that Trey Young can be a real piece on a team that wins 50 games and actually competes in a real way, it should start happening right around now. So

Speaker 1 maybe we'll see it. Maybe we'll see it on Saturday against Milwaukee in the NBA Cup.
Anyway, that was today's six major things.

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All right, we're taping this on Thursday morning.

Speaker 1 Seth Wickersham is here from ESPN. He's popped on here a few times to talk about big picture NFL shenanigans at the coach owner scale and other stuff and the Patriots.
And Belichick,

Speaker 1 shockingly, to a lot of people, goes back to college. You wrote about it for ESPN today.

Speaker 1 I don't really even know where to begin, but I guess I'll start here.

Speaker 1 People see this story, however they feel about Belichick, is my takeaway. And I'm just judging it from the people in my life who are emailing about it.

Speaker 1 The people who love Belichick, think he's a great coach. Like, I can't believe there was another NFL job for him.

Speaker 1 The people who were done with his style of doing, thought he was a little overrated, are all like, see, nobody in the NFL wanted him.

Speaker 1 And the truth is, this story really hits both sides of that spectrum, right?

Speaker 2 There's no doubt. And I think that what makes that interesting is that that reflects a lot of the coach GM and owner divide in the NFL.

Speaker 2 I mean, I think that like rank and file coaches, ask Sean McVay, Kyle Shanahan, Sean Payton, ask any of those guys if they think Bill Belichick should be coaching in the NFL.

Speaker 2 And you won't even be able to finish the sentence before they say yes. Whereas at the GM level, though, and the ownership level, there's just so much concern.

Speaker 2 And I think that part of it is his record. Part of it is, you know, that for, you know, the last half of the dynasty, certainly,

Speaker 2 you know, Robert Kraft made no secret that he could be impossible to work with at times, even as they were winning.

Speaker 2 But I think that there's just a sense that even if Belichick is willing to be deferential to existing infrastructures and existing GMs, whoever they might be, there's a sense that, like, if you hire this guy, you got to kind of let him do it his way and give him the keys, even if he's not technically asking for it.

Speaker 2 And I think what changed.

Speaker 2 2024 has been an interesting year for Belichick and we should talk about that.

Speaker 2 But what changed, I think, was that I think that he began to think maybe I don't really want this and I don't want to take the risk and wait in January, hoping that I might get one interview and might get one job when I can go to a program that I've got a little bit of history with, have the space to win or lose on my terms, and my career that way.

Speaker 1 All right. So there's two major things to unpack there.

Speaker 1 One is,

Speaker 1 how do I even know if I'll get a job in January?

Speaker 1 And then the other piece is, how do I know I want the job? So let's talk about the league dynamics because I think that's such a big part of this.

Speaker 1 He had such a bad experience with the crafts the last five to seven years, really starting with the stuff you were writing about in the mid-2010s that I think, and I was one of them, a lot of the Patriot fans who had gone through Deflate Gate and Spygate, and then people were starting to write about the dissension between Kraft and Belichick and Brady.

Speaker 1 And all of us were like, fuck you, there's no dissension. We're fine.
But then as the years pass, clearly there was. But I think the crafts thing got so dysfunctional the last five years.

Speaker 1 And if you didn't believe it, you just had to watch the Apple Doc, which was one of the most insane pieces of sports content anyone's ever released, where it was just an absolute hatchet job that tried to erase Belichick, especially from the first three Super Bowls, where I don't care where you stand on the Belichick versus Brady thing.

Speaker 1 Belichick was the bigger reason they won the first three Super Bowls. It's a fact.
The way he put the roster together, the defense he had, the game planning, and it was almost like they knew that.

Speaker 1 So they had to steer it toward everything that happened after that.

Speaker 1 And part of me wonders, was he just so disenchanted with his experience with the crafts that as he looked around the available jobs and you see father-son duo, incompetent franchise, father-son duo, and he's just looking around going, That looks awful.

Speaker 1 I was already in that situation. Maybe I could have control over my own situation.
So, just the NFL infrastructure, which you've written about a lot,

Speaker 1 is it more dysfunctional than we even know about? Because there's maybe seven franchises that are run smoothly and correctly. And then

Speaker 1 two-thirds of the week at least are kind of a disaster.

Speaker 2 Totally. And I think that,

Speaker 2 yeah, it's first of all, to go back to like the early part of the dynasty, like, you know, you and I talked about it when my Patriots book came out.

Speaker 2 I mean, those were hugely formative years because Belichick finally had

Speaker 2 the people, the quarterback in place to do what he had had in his mind for so long in terms of like being able to create an actual team. And,

Speaker 2 you know, that's where that ethos started.

Speaker 2 And I think that like Van Wright Thompson and I and Van Natta reported on it a year ago or so that, you know, Belichick really felt like that the crafts had eroded what he had built.

Speaker 2 in the past couple of years. Crafts, of course, were pissed off that he let Brady walk out and he told Kraft that Brady couldn't play anymore anymore.
And he goes and wins the Super Bowl. But then,

Speaker 2 yeah, 2024, he gets fired by the crafts, even though they call it a mutual parting of ways. Kraft later comes out and says that, you know, he was fired.

Speaker 1 Well, and he was also telling everyone in NFL circles, like, yeah, I fired him.

Speaker 2 Exactly. And then you have seven openings.

Speaker 2 And only one team shows any interest in him. He meets with the owner twice.
And then the next thing you know, you know, he's voted off the island, as we reported about.

Speaker 1 And you're talking about Atlanta.

Speaker 2 Atlanta. And like, he was willing to work with GM Terry Fonteno.
He was willing to work with Rich McKay, even though there's a lot of history there.

Speaker 1 Yep.

Speaker 2 But, you know, at the end of the day, they not only went with Raheem Morris, but they made a decision against Belichick. Like, didn't finish in any of the decision makers.
top three candidates.

Speaker 1 And

Speaker 1 they leaked it too to make him look bad, which I thought was,

Speaker 2 it was our reporting. I I mean, it's a little bit different than they leaked it, but yeah, we should be right.
Yes.

Speaker 1 But you're reporting it, you're finding out that that toy weren't in the top three. So they're telling absolutely.

Speaker 2 So he gets shut out. Then you have the dynasty comes out, which just, you know, really roundly dismisses his influence, you know, in that team's historic run.

Speaker 2 So start this season.

Speaker 2 He's got his media gigs, but every week, he and a lot of the old Patriots assistants who are also out of work would do these Zooms and they would go through every team, every game, every situation, these high-level conversations.

Speaker 2 And I think the subtext of it all is like, what teams and organizations sound good for us if

Speaker 2 the situation comes up? And there wasn't a lot of back-channel communication with owners. I think that the Brian Forest lawsuit has impacted that greatly.

Speaker 1 Wait, can you explain that? Because that's such a crucial piece of this. So, like five years ago, there's texting, there's, hey, what's going on over there? And you're just back channeling constantly.

Speaker 1 And the Flores thing just completely ended that?

Speaker 2 Well, it's an ongoing discrimination lawsuit against the League and Three teams. And I think that owners, you know, don't want to get wrapped up in that.
They don't want to be part of that.

Speaker 2 They don't want to violate the Rooney rule. And so I'm not convinced that Belichick wouldn't have ended up with an NFL job.
I just think we're never going to know.

Speaker 2 And I think that the ones that he thought he might have a chance at

Speaker 2 just didn't seem appealing enough. And I think that like on those Zoom calls, midway through the season, all of a sudden the college game just seemed much more appealing to him.

Speaker 2 And he wanted to discuss certain programs, how it would work if they tried to implement some of the Patriot way at that level.

Speaker 2 And again, I was as shocked as anybody. I think you and I were texting about it when North Carolina, you know, came up.

Speaker 2 And, you know, it's not Notre Dame exactly.

Speaker 2 but he felt like this is a good place to end his career the way that he wants wants to end his career, which is, you know, working with people that he cares about, that he likes, and winning or losing on his terms.

Speaker 1 Well, and he has a little bit of a father legacy with them. It's a great place to live.
It's a place that seems like they were willing to give him the car keys.

Speaker 1 I want to go through those NFL jobs, though, because it's

Speaker 1 such a crucial piece of this. Because there's going to be a narrative like, ah, the league rejected him.
And,

Speaker 1 you know, even your piece tapped into that. Did Belichick reject the league first or did they already reject him?

Speaker 1 But if you go through the jobs, Las Vegas, assuming that becomes open after the year, I mean, they have two wins, but I'm just guessing. Well, Mark Davis fired McDaniels.
He's a legacy kid.

Speaker 1 That's a franchise that's never,

Speaker 1 I would say, been stable the last decade. So he's not going there.
Jacksonville with

Speaker 1 him, I thought.

Speaker 2 I don't think he, I think consistently, he really didn't want to go out west.

Speaker 1 Well, and also they don't have a quarterback. There's so many variables, so cross them up.

Speaker 1 Jacksonville is the team I thought made the most sense, but what do they have? They have the father-son duo, who's been pretty incompetent over the last 10 years.

Speaker 1 Like he just dealt with that with the crafts. Now he's getting the more incompetent version of the crafts.
Trevor Lawrence, you'd have to really talk yourself into.

Speaker 1 And it would have to be a situation where they just gave him everything, but they've already proven they don't really work that way. The son runs the analytics department.

Speaker 1 And it just seems like that wasn't a match. So, cross them off.
New Orleans, no quarterback. The Benson family, they're a mess.
He's not going there. They're in Capel.
You can't succeed there.

Speaker 1 That makes no sense. Cross them off.
The Jets, no quarterback, and he can't stand Woody Johnson. Took shots at him constantly all the way during the season in all his media places.
So cross them off.

Speaker 1 The Giants were interesting because I thought that was another possibility. But it's pretty clear that he really likes day ball.

Speaker 1 And even in some of the reporting, it was like telling them, like, you guys need a better front office, but you have a good coach. He just didn't want to shank dayball.
So that's out.

Speaker 1 Plus, they don't have a QB.

Speaker 1 Dallas,

Speaker 1 we won't know until January, right? That's another father-son duo, by the way, but won't know until January.

Speaker 1 And he didn't want, he couldn't wait that long because this North Carolina job was either going to be there or not. So let that one go.

Speaker 1 And then the only other one I can think of before the one that you talked about in your piece, Cincinnati,

Speaker 1 if this ended badly, they didn't make the playoffs, and they fire Zach Taylor, who has not covered himself in glory this year. That's a really good job because you have Burrow, Ohio.

Speaker 1 But again, you can't wait till January. So the only one that really might have made sense was Chicago.
And in your reporting, they seemed receptive to that one, right?

Speaker 1 But Chicago is just, they want one of those offensive whiz kid play callers. Everybody has Ben Johnson linked to them already.
So it just didn't seem like a fit.

Speaker 1 And that was the one team that seems like they've rejected him, kind of.

Speaker 2 Yeah. And I mean, again, what are those situations is interesting.
I mean,

Speaker 2 Dallas is interesting to me because nobody can take a collection of talent and turn them into a team quite like Belichick. But again,

Speaker 2 you know, can the Jones share the spotlight with someone like Belichick?

Speaker 2 You know, I have no doubt that they could all get along, but I don't know if Jerry Jones values coaches enough to, you know, go after someone like Bill.

Speaker 1 Well, he had Jason Garrett for eight years or nine years. So we know the answer to that already.

Speaker 2 Exactly. And so I think that like, again,

Speaker 2 he saw the Giants as a rebuild, but he also believes that Brian Dayball has done a good job. And so

Speaker 2 it's almost like you take yourself out of the running for that if they were even considering it. And,

Speaker 2 you know, again, this is all just, I think that, like, and even Cincinnati, I mean, remember when he would go on his podcast or on the McAfee show, I mean, he was really critical of Burrow.

Speaker 2 And usually when he does that publicly, you know that there's a lot more there in terms of his private scouting report of a certain player.

Speaker 1 So were you devouring some of the Belichick media stuff, Chike, because you know him so well and you know the trying to just like the little breadcrumbs he was dropping one way or the other.

Speaker 1 Was that like a sport for you?

Speaker 2 I loved it. You know, it was, it was, it was really fun.
It was really fun. I mean, that's all we've wanted, right? Because what you, what you have is the,

Speaker 2 you know, for all these decades, you knew, you know, you had his, his, his public performance, which was, you know, very buttoned up.

Speaker 2 And then the things you would learn about what they were like behind the scenes and the way that they would

Speaker 2 really,

Speaker 2 you know, put so much thought into like all these decisions. It was just mind-blowing.
And so I loved like just getting a glimpse of that this year from him.

Speaker 1 And especially like his disdain for certain things was really funny. Like

Speaker 1 sloppy special teams just like really, really cut him to the point.

Speaker 2 Yeah, I interviewed. Yeah, I interviewed,

Speaker 2 I was talking with Peyton Manning earlier this year for my quarterbacks book. And he was talking about how Belichick just loves coming on the Manning cast and loves watching punts.

Speaker 1 Right.

Speaker 1 Yeah, like Belichick, if there was a punt near the end zone and the guy screwed it up and fell into the end zone, it was like Belichick was being electroshocked on the sidelines. It was, it was

Speaker 1 the worst thing that could happen to him as somebody screwing up a basic play.

Speaker 2 And then you watched him when we had an Atlanta game, and I think he was on the Manningcast. And, you know, he's just ripping them for sloppy tackling and things like that.

Speaker 2 And, you know, that was a job. Obviously, they made a point of making sure everyone knew why they didn't hire him.
And so, you know, I enjoyed that stuff quite a bit.

Speaker 1 Yeah, he seemed like he had an axe to grind against Atlanta. The Jets, he couldn't take Winnie Johnson shots enough.
There are a couple others, but you know, I'm torn on this because

Speaker 1 I really thought him trying to be the coach GM everything the last couple years just wasn't sustainable anymore, and he wasn't good at it.

Speaker 1 The free agent draft stuff the last five years, he was just bad. And you can see the results in the roster, he just didn't do a very good job.

Speaker 1 And

Speaker 1 that combined with I think he had a lot of trouble

Speaker 1 replenishing assistants. Once guys got plucked left and right, that becomes really hard to just keep replenishing these guys that you kind of taught your whole system to.

Speaker 1 You get older, you don't have the same kind of motor. So,

Speaker 1 you know, the way he did it in the 2000s, no chance he was going to be able to do that again. But I still feel like he was a pretty good,

Speaker 1 pretty like top, maybe not top seven coach, but in the top 10. What was interesting about last year, the team got sloppy in ways that were really uncharacteristic for Belichick.

Speaker 1 And I do think people around the league probably noticed that. This wasn't like the same buttoned up, overachieving thing.
Now, their defense overachieved and finished like, I think, sixth in DVOA.

Speaker 1 Some of that had to do with the schedule. Some of that had to do with when you're playing a shit team,

Speaker 1 you're not necessarily throwing the kitchen sink at them. You're just trying to get through the game.

Speaker 1 Some of it was smoke of marriage, but at the same time, the team did overachieve. They were awful offensively.
They couldn't have been worse.

Speaker 1 And the reason I bring this up is the irony of all of this is the best job for him, I think, would have been the Patriots for 2025 with like some pieces, desperately needed a stable hand.

Speaker 1 And they have an awesome quarterback, right? Which is the thing he didn't have for six years.

Speaker 1 And the funniest thing about all of this is that was the perfect job for him, but it never would have happened.

Speaker 2 Never would have happened. No, there was definitely no chance.

Speaker 2 And, you know, I think the

Speaker 1 although Ben and J-Lo happened, so maybe, maybe there's maybe no chance is too strong. There have been reunions that have been shut.

Speaker 1 The Eagles got back together, but that one would have been an all-time shocker, I think.

Speaker 2 I know. I'm trying to think if there's,

Speaker 2 I mean, you just look at the toxicity of how that ended. And I don't know if there's a sports parallel where they could have like mended that again.

Speaker 1 I mean, Phil Jackson, Jerry Crown. Phil Jackson.

Speaker 2 I was thinking about that. And that just wasn't going to.

Speaker 2 I mean,

Speaker 2 it got pretty bad.

Speaker 2 i mean you saw the body language at the press conference when they let balichek go you saw it at the brady roast the roast was the best he was he just had complete disdain you could he couldn't hide it couldn't hide it and um

Speaker 2 yeah i mean i'm with you like on paper in terms of like if you're looking at the situation that's kind of best suited for him where you're taking a team that you know, again, needs to kind of like come together and play smarter, that might be, you know, the Patriots might be his forte.

Speaker 2 But yeah, that was never going to happen this year.

Speaker 1 Yeah, because you look like Sean Payton, they give him the car keys in Denver, turns it around. Now he's younger than Belichick.
Harbaugh with the Chargers this year, same thing.

Speaker 1 Like, there's probably seven, eight guys that could do that. But in those cases, those guys are also

Speaker 1 running a lot of the

Speaker 1 front office thinking. And I think Belichick, with his last five years, probably lost that.
With a perfect job, it would have been, hey, we have a good team. We ran our course with our coach.

Speaker 1 Can you just come in? That's why Philly became super interesting in September for a couple of weeks there when it looked like Sirianni was going to go badly.

Speaker 1 And that was like, whoever's taking that one, that's like a hired gun job. Could he have just come in, hired gun, hey, just try to win as many games as possible and compete for titles.

Speaker 1 But then Philly turned it around. They won nine to 10 games.
So it makes sense to me that he did this because

Speaker 1 I do think he just wants to coach. And

Speaker 1 maybe he started to realize the NFL isn't for for him now on the other hand could he do this for two years and then realize

Speaker 1 oh that job's open and all of a sudden he's hopping back do you think the shula record's important to him because i've heard different

Speaker 1 different takes on this

Speaker 2 i think it is important but it's not the thing you know it's not why he gets out of bed in the morning it's not what really motivates him and i think that like probably given a year off, you know, he was able to

Speaker 2 reflect a little bit on like, what are the essential things that I enjoy about this job?

Speaker 2 And I think that like, you know, one of the things with the New York Giants, let's say he had gone there and he knows that it's going to take a year to get that team back.

Speaker 2 He would have been going through his third straight coaching year. So 22, 23, and then

Speaker 2 next year

Speaker 2 with,

Speaker 2 you know, the media on him and whether he's lost his fastball, a daily, you know, piece of speculation and content. And I don't think he really wanted to deal with that.
And I think that,

Speaker 2 you know, college football media is a little different than the NFL.

Speaker 2 And I think that, like, even though it's intense in its own way, it's like, that's something that he won't really have to contend with, I think,

Speaker 2 when he's at North Carolina.

Speaker 1 So the things working against him, the crafts poison the well.

Speaker 1 GM performance last five to six years was just bad.

Speaker 1 A known curmudgeon, which he tried his hardest over this with the eight media jobs he had to really try to prove that he wasn't.

Speaker 1 And I'm in the camp that he's probably more entertaining than a curmudgeon, but I think if

Speaker 1 he's working for you and you're just a rich guy who wants answers, he's going to be a curmudgeon.

Speaker 1 Brings a lot of like

Speaker 1 people that come with him. Some would say they're cast offs.
Some would say they're people that, if it wasn't for Belichick, would not be working in the league anymore.

Speaker 1 But he has a lot of those people, right? And the irony of it is

Speaker 1 this is the same kind of thing he probably despises with owners. Like, why do I have to deal with your family? Why do I have to deal with your, you know, now your son's telling me what to do?

Speaker 1 But this North Carolina situation

Speaker 1 he's going to be in. He's going to bring a lot of like his family with him, including actual family members.

Speaker 1 So

Speaker 1 but it seems like to me, that was probably a huge piece of this for him, just working with people that he trusts and likes, right?

Speaker 2 Absolutely. And I think that like, that was something that a year ago, when the Eagles, you know, were at, at, at the highest levels, were talking about, hey, look, you know, he's available.

Speaker 2 Do we, do we make a move here? You know, that was one of the things that was considered is that like

Speaker 2 Even though those group of minds for the longest time were just like so desired in NFL circles, right?

Speaker 2 I mean, owners just could not wait to try to tap into his thinking until they realized, you know, that it's, it's so singular. His system is not a playbook like Bill Walsh's.

Speaker 2 It's literally his decision making in real time.

Speaker 2 You know, he did, they, they thought, you know, he doesn't necessarily have the best record of developing coaches. And

Speaker 2 considering if he comes in, you have to kind of let him run it his way.

Speaker 2 Are you doing this again in two years? Are you blowing up the building again?

Speaker 2 Or do you give someone a third shot at being, you know a head coach, or you know, one of the people out of that group a second shot at being a head coach?

Speaker 2 And so, those things were definitely on minds.

Speaker 2 I think that, like, with Belichick, just him having been in the NFL for half a century now and been in the public eye really for most of the last 30 or so years, is that there's just enough material out there that if you want to lay out a convincing conversation as to why you don't want to hire him, it's there.

Speaker 2 But

Speaker 2 his record is also there.

Speaker 2 And I mean, just imagine him going through what he went through last January and February, and then having to go on his podcast and on the McAfee show and everything and explain to us

Speaker 2 and him trying to do it politely, just how stupid some of the coaching is in the NFL.

Speaker 2 I mean, when they have to, when they have to bring him on to explain what happened at the end of the Bears-Lions game. Right.
And I mean, you know, this is stuff that he knows how to do in his sleep.

Speaker 2 I mean, he is the one who, with the clock, you know, melting down against the Seahawks, saw confusion, saw personnel change, calls, you know, go line three. I think that was the name of it.

Speaker 2 Butler goes in, all that stuff comes together in a way that I can't ever see being replicated again. So much preparation and thought and execution and stones, for lack of a better word.

Speaker 2 And yet, you know, you're watching these coaches screw up game situations all the time. And they bring him on to try to explain why.
And these are the guys who have jobs right now.

Speaker 1 Right.

Speaker 1 Well,

Speaker 1 this NBA has the same problem.

Speaker 1 Most, if you have between those two, there's 62 franchises, NBA, NFL,

Speaker 1 probably three-fourths of them are terrible at hiring coaches. And the NBA coaches just change all the time.
The NFL coaches change all the time.

Speaker 1 We see situations like last year where Iber Fluce Fluce clearly,

Speaker 1 you know, that was going to be risky to bring him back with a new QB. That could have gone either way.
Salah looked like he'd already run his course with the Jets.

Speaker 1 They talked themselves into bringing him back. But

Speaker 1 a lot of the times you can kind of see it just from

Speaker 1 not being attached, just from watching your TV, being like, man, that guy seems like a man. Like Brandon Staley last year.
It's like, like, this. There's no way.
There's no path out of this.

Speaker 1 So I'm sure Belchek watches that too. And he's like, are you fucking kidding me? Like, really?

Speaker 2 Absolutely.

Speaker 2 And I think a year ago, I think it was a year ago, there was a, you know, they have owners meetings and then they have the privileged meeting, which is just owners and, you know, maybe they're family members, but it's not team executives.

Speaker 2 And I think that it was in a privileged session where the league presented some data as to the total amount of money that. owners are paying coaches that are no longer working for them.

Speaker 2 And it was a staggering amount.

Speaker 2 And, you know, then it prompted all this discussion about the value of coaches are we paying these guys too much all this stuff but the bottom line is that like most owners are not good at this and even if you're invested in a gm like

Speaker 2 i don't want to pick on him but let's just say terry fonteno or what whoever it might be

Speaker 2 why not

Speaker 2 tell why not have an owner who says look i'm keeping you around I want you to absorb as much as you can from this guy while we have two to three years with him so that we can take the best pieces going forward after he sets the record and you know rides off into the sunset.

Speaker 2 Like, that would be some really strategic thinking on an owner's part.

Speaker 1 And yeah, but said the owner, how this works, these the rich guys just call each other

Speaker 1 and then you know they weirdly look out for each other, even though they're all competing against each other in this league.

Speaker 1 And there's no way that Arthur Blank didn't call Kraft to ask for his take on Belchek. I just refuse to believe he didn't.
And there's no way Kraft didn't give him a bad review.

Speaker 1 So then if you're blank on it,

Speaker 1 yeah, you this, if you're blank, you have a franchise that's worth seven billion dollars

Speaker 1 and you're trying to think, do I want to give the car keys to the seven billion dollar franchise to this guy?

Speaker 1 And his last employer is just absolutely like smashing him, you're going to hesitate and you're going to go to the yes man because this is the other thing.

Speaker 1 Lombardi and I talked about this when he was on, I think in August, September.

Speaker 1 You have a lot of people in these organizations, and I've dealt with this professionally too, job protection people that their job is just to keep their own job.

Speaker 1 And they're always going to like push blame on other people and undermine other people because that's how they're going to keep their seat. And that happens in so many of these football.

Speaker 1 We just saw it happen with the Falcons. The Cousins Penix thing is probably a disaster, right? Are there going to be repercussions for it? They're just going to blame other people.

Speaker 1 Well, Cousins, he didn't tell us he was healthy. They'll figure out how to blame and keep going.
Rob Polinka is the master of this with the Lakers. They fire a coach every year.

Speaker 1 They've traded all their picks, they've done everything, but somehow everybody else gets blamed for it. So I just think that's such a big part of sports now.

Speaker 1 And I don't think the common person who just roots for football sees it.

Speaker 2 And owners,

Speaker 2 you bring up two interesting points. I mean, number one is that a lot of them are kind of risk-averse and conflict-averse,

Speaker 2 which I think, you know, within that context, it makes you realize just,

Speaker 2 you know, how

Speaker 2 baldy it was for Robert Kraft to trade a first-round pick for Belichick back in 2000.

Speaker 1 Right, which is his Hall of Fame case, by the way. It's like he not only hired Belichick, he traded a first-round pick.
He was that convinced in the guy.

Speaker 2 Absolutely. And then

Speaker 2 the thing is, though, is that you're right. I mean, like, groupthink takes over.
Like, even though these guys are, you know, in charge of these multi-billion dollar

Speaker 2 businesses, and even though they're all bosses in their own right of whatever other businesses they might own, like, when you see votes taken in the NFL, there's not a lot of close votes.

Speaker 2 Like they're almost always like 31 to 1. Yes.
Mike Brown never votes, you know, whatever it might be. Like groupthink does just take over.
And I think that like, you know, like we said,

Speaker 2 they can

Speaker 2 use whatever excuse they want for why they don't want to hire a balichek,

Speaker 2 but

Speaker 2 it doesn't look good for all of them. It doesn't look good that this guy left and went to college to a mid-level program

Speaker 2 while we're watching just like so much bad coaching every week.

Speaker 1 Well, I don't think it's a mid-level program anymore with the kind of money they're probably spending.

Speaker 1 I think that for North Carolina, you always have to look like, why would somebody do, why would somebody spend, I don't know how much it's, it's 30 for three, I saw 50 for five, whatever it is, plus all the other people in Belichick's life, plus the commitment to NIL.

Speaker 1 It's probably like a, I don't know, $40 to $50 million commitment per year. But when was the last time anyone talked talked about North Carolina football? Like, we just got Drake May from them.

Speaker 1 And all I read about leading up to Drake May is like, we have no idea how good he is because his team was such dog shit in his last year, right? So that's who you're getting.

Speaker 1 So this writer named Ollie Conley, who's I think does a good job, and he was on some of the reporting on this, but he wrote a piece today about

Speaker 1 when Bill Walsh went back to Stanford and how badly it went. And it went badly for a bunch of different reasons.
College football was totally different back then.

Speaker 1 Walsh maybe didn't have the stamina or the motor that he thought he did. He tried to bring an NFL mindset and it just went badly.
There was a book written about it. And,

Speaker 1 you know, I've been really like Stuart Mandela, the athletic, wrote a piece like, this is going to be a disaster. Like, he was just like, mark my words, come back here in two years.

Speaker 1 This is going to be a disaster.

Speaker 1 I don't know whether I'm just like a Belichick junkie at this point or a Belichick apologist. Like, I I don't know.
I just watched him do so many great things.

Speaker 1 I just really find it hard to believe he's going to go to college and not be good. And yet the track record said he won't, it says that he won't be good.
So where do you stand?

Speaker 2 My gut tells me he'll do pretty well there. Now, look, I don't know what that means.
You know, does that mean they make the playoffs? I don't exactly know. But I think when you have a legend

Speaker 2 who

Speaker 2 still feels like he has something to prove and

Speaker 2 is really sharp. I think history usually lends itself pretty well to those guys.
And I think that

Speaker 2 clearly this was a space that in 2024 really just started to appeal to him.

Speaker 2 And like from the people I've talked to closest to him, again, in September, when they started these meetings and they're going through all these games, I don't think that they were thinking like what what college program might you know come open that would be cool.

Speaker 2 It was really as the season went on and he became more intrigued with the college game that he asked these guys to look into some of these programs a little bit more.

Speaker 2 Well, what would it look like if we took my methodologies and tried to adapt them to this? Um, you know, how would that go?

Speaker 2 And, you know, is

Speaker 2 the ability to knowing that I'll be able to win or lose on my own terms worth the risk of not interviewing or, you know, yeah, yeah, homemade jobs before any of these NFL jobs.

Speaker 1 Yeah. Yeah.

Speaker 2 Before any of those jobs come open. And, and, you know, it was really kind of a a resounding yes.

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Speaker 1 There was one thing that I read in some of the stuff that's been written about this already: is

Speaker 1 with this college job, what he wants to do at North Carolina, I thought was fascinating, where he basically wants to turn it into this football factory that trains people to go to the NFL.

Speaker 1 So, this is something Cal Perry tried to do at Kentucky, right? This was a big part of their mindset of like, college sports is changing. The one and done eras is coming.

Speaker 1 We are going to be this factory that sends people into

Speaker 1 the lottery, top five pick, whatever you want to be. We're going to train you to do that.

Speaker 1 And if you look at the success of the Kentucky guys that came in the NBA, like, and there's other reasons for that. There were other people that were involved in that

Speaker 1 kind of chain, like people like Worldwide West, who's now one of the people around the Knicks.

Speaker 1 But a lot of those Kentucky people did come into the league

Speaker 1 position to succeed, and they did. And they've had the most success, I think, of any college the last 15 years.

Speaker 1 So when I read that about Balachek, I was like, that's interesting that he's trying to reinvent himself basically as, you know, UC, North Carolina, awesome, awesome school, like one of the top 25 colleges probably.

Speaker 1 ACC, you have a natural rival in Duke. You get to play big games.

Speaker 1 You have a chance to make the playoffs, but big picture, hey, if you want to play in the NFL, you're going to learn stuff here that maybe other places, it won't be the same. That makes sense to me.

Speaker 1 Now, whether he can sell that to some 17-year-old kid and some, you know, and their parents in Memphis, Tennessee, or, you know, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, wherever he goes to recruit, I don't know if that's going to work, but it makes sense to me.

Speaker 2 It's a pretty good pitch. And I also think that it'll be interesting to see, you know, which NFL teams end up drafting out of that program most.
Like,

Speaker 2 you know, when he had the first run with the Patriots, you know, when they win three out of four Super Bowls, and then his system got raided around the NFL, he had some tough drafts there.

Speaker 2 And one of the reasons was because all of a sudden, what felt like half the league was looking for the type of player that only he was looking for before.

Speaker 2 And so all of a sudden, there was a premium on those types of players. Now,

Speaker 2 who knows exactly? I mean, it would be interesting to see like if

Speaker 2 the Chargers, if the Ravens, if

Speaker 1 teams that he has connections with?

Speaker 2 Yes, teams that he would have connections with, you know, the Giants, Denver, you know, if like those types of players, those types of teams end up really looking hard at North Carolina players and wanting them because they'll have a better sense that they're mentally equipped to handle the rigors of the NFL.

Speaker 2 Name another coach who can get you ready for it. I think that Jim Harbrod, Michigan, could probably do it pretty well, but name another coach who you can say, I will prepare you for

Speaker 2 what life is like in this league. And it's, you know, as we all know, that goes way beyond schematics and doing your job.
It is a complete lifestyle change.

Speaker 2 Everyone talks about it, how different it is when football ceases to be, you know, your quote-unquote job and becomes your real job. And

Speaker 2 I think that he'll enjoy doing that. Like years ago,

Speaker 2 years ago, it was in 2006. It was around the time the Halberstam book came out.
Bill wouldn't promote it during the year, but in the offseason, he did a couple of events.

Speaker 2 He did one at Southern Connecticut. And

Speaker 2 he received like a Distinguished Speaker Award. And I went to it.
And I was really curious on how it was going to go. And he was so at ease in that audience in front of those young minds.

Speaker 2 And, you know, he wasn't talking about football. He showed some clips.
He kind of went to the film in kind of a funny way, but he wasn't like

Speaker 2 talking about football and using these kind of flat metaphors for how it prepares you for life and this type of thing.

Speaker 2 He was actually addressing these kids in terms of their passion and what they want to do and how best to do it. And he was just on fire and he was inspiring.

Speaker 2 And I do think that like, that's probably a muscle that he hasn't had a chance to flex as much in the NFL.

Speaker 2 And I think that he'll really look forward to doing that because he'll know that the vast majority of even his players won't play in the pros.

Speaker 2 But I think that he'll enjoy preparing these people for life beyond football, which to be honest,

Speaker 2 it is a little, even though we know that he can do that, it is surprising for Belichick because he's someone whose like self-worth almost seems tied to the results of games.

Speaker 1 Yeah, it made sense to me that he went to a school that actually is a strong academic school.

Speaker 1 Because the other way this could have gone that wouldn't have shocked me is if he just took over, like, I don't know what jobs are open, but Amherst, Williams, Harvard, Yale, one of those, just like he went full div three.

Speaker 1 Now, that would have been tougher for all the people he's bringing with him. And I don't, I don't know if there's the same amount of money, but

Speaker 1 the North Carolina Duke, that kind of level of really good schools that also have football at a pretty competitive level,

Speaker 1 it makes sense to me. Now, the thing he has to deal with with here is

Speaker 1 if he's grumpy, curmudge, and Belichick,

Speaker 1 every single person he's coaching is on a one-year deal with this new college system.

Speaker 1 And

Speaker 1 that balance, that's why we've seen a bunch of coaches get out. They don't want to deal with it, right? He's he's approaching it fresh, but um,

Speaker 1 oh, that's the biggest X factor to me, right? He's yelling at whoever, and they're just like, okay, cool. I'm going to be at Ohio State next year.

Speaker 2 So, college is kind of a combination, and maybe

Speaker 2 it's unofficially always been this way: of like raw NIL money and how much am I getting and cult of personality. I mean, you see it with Deion Sanders, it is just such a cult of personality.

Speaker 2 Yeah, even Sabin, you know, he had reached that level. And I think that, like,

Speaker 2 it's, it's, it's kind of interesting to consider, but I mean, it's like, you know, Belichick

Speaker 2 has reached a higher cultural place than any football coach for the the last two decades.

Speaker 1 I would hope so. And,

Speaker 2 and, you know,

Speaker 2 as a cult of personality type of guy, I mean, you knew when Kraft started marketing the hoodies with the sleeves cut off, you know, that something could change in the atmosphere.

Speaker 2 And, you know, a lot of the players that he'll be recruiting don't won't know, you know, they wouldn't have been born when he was winning Super Bowls with the Patriots.

Speaker 2 But I think that like the culture personality will be strong with him. And I think that like that affords you a lot of the things

Speaker 2 that

Speaker 2 if you're a good coach at a good program, you know, makes this job so difficult.

Speaker 2 Because I don't think that he's going to be married to his phone all day, texting every single position and making sure that they're not entering the portal after practice, metaphorically speaking.

Speaker 1 Right. Well, I'll tell you this.
He's going to be going against certain coaches that he's going to be so overqualified competitively that it's going to be kind of hilarious. And

Speaker 1 I'm in the camp of, I think he's actually going to do really well because just like his attention to detail and the game management stuff he'll be able to do is going to be so far superior to some of these dudes that are in college.

Speaker 1 That's one of my frustrations when I watch college is I can't believe how sloppy and dumb and stupid some of the stuff is, especially late.

Speaker 2 But here's what I'm saying. Well, I mean, just imagine like someone like Davo Sweeney.
I mean, just like, you know, you've, he's clearly an elite college coach

Speaker 1 that

Speaker 2 doesn't run the most sophisticated offense.

Speaker 2 And, you know, I think that like when Deshaun Watson came into the NFL, and I think Bill O'Brien did a great job with him, and Deshaun, for a while, there was like on the verge of being one of the top five quarterbacks in the NFL.

Speaker 2 I mean, they had to mesh a lot of what they did in Clemson with like the stuff, you know, pulling from like the Brady rookie playbook, right? Yeah, of the Patriots offense. And,

Speaker 2 you know,

Speaker 2 he will take that stuff as a huge challenge. I mean, you know, the fact that

Speaker 2 you essentially have, you know, great inflation in college with some of these quarterback numbers that are being put up. I mean, he will take that stuff personally.

Speaker 2 But there's also that aspect to the, you know, the fact that like he is who he is. And I mean, Brady on Fox the other day was asked about Belichick in college and he just could not imagine him there.

Speaker 2 And it's a funny clip of him.

Speaker 2 doing his impression of Bill giving his pitch, you know, well, we don't really want you, but if you want to come here, we'll see what you can can do.

Speaker 2 I mean, that part of it is really kind of interesting because he's going to be the complete opposite of what every other kid hears.

Speaker 1 Yeah, it's basically he's Bobby Knight in the modern era. Exactly.

Speaker 1 If it's over, 302 wins for the NFL, third all-time.

Speaker 1 31 and 13 in the playoffs, including, not including 13 buys.

Speaker 1 So 31 and 13 plus the buys. He's basically 44 and 13.

Speaker 1 333 combined wins. Only Don Shula had more, 347.
Six and three in Super Bowls, three more as an assistant. So nine total.

Speaker 1 And really the only person with a chance to catch him with any of this stuff seems to be Andy Reid, who is 32 wins behind him

Speaker 1 and five playoff wins behind him. And it's probably going to pass him.

Speaker 1 And

Speaker 1 I'm sure Belichick's probably okay with it.

Speaker 2 And I was wondering, I wondered if that factored into it. Where he's like, even if I go to Jacksonville and I coach two years and get the record, am I going to hold it for remember like when

Speaker 2 Drew Brees was breaking all those records and you knew that he was only going to have them until break, you know, another half season?

Speaker 2 I wonder if he, if that calculus went into things, you know, is that worth it for me?

Speaker 1 Probably not. I mean, that it, if it was Philly, if Siriani went sideways and he's moving in midseason, but you know,

Speaker 1 I talked to his people about him doing a podcast like with Ringer Spotify because, you know, they talked to everybody last year.

Speaker 1 And one of the things they made very clear to everybody who was discussing any sort of media thing with him is Belchek will be coaching in February. Right.

Speaker 1 It's like, keep it low, but this is a one-year thing. This is not a new career.
He's doing this for one year. He will be coaching in February.

Speaker 1 And I always thought that was interesting that they're so honest about it. And just like, this is, he clearly clearly wanted to do all the media stuff because he wanted to make money

Speaker 1 but he was also trying to shift some sort of perception about him

Speaker 1 and i think for the most part it worked because i think if you think about him in july people just knew him as the all-time coach curmudgeon we've ever had

Speaker 1 not not not the same now i don't think like he's inside the nfl his humor came out a little bit the manning cast i you know there were some pretty dreary moments in the manning cast cast, but there were some also some fun clips too.

Speaker 2 And some edgy moments. So you got to see that edginess with him sometimes.

Speaker 1 Yeah, he would, he would do that Jim Gray podcast sometimes, and he'd, he'd start throwing darts at coaches and stuff occasionally. So there was a little more, I think, that most people thought.

Speaker 1 But for people like you and me who had been watching him forever, like none of it was surprising. It backed up everything we had we'd already heard.
But I always felt like his

Speaker 1 sense of what his place was in football history and how he could shape that a little bit. I always thought he was way more aware of that.
You don't let Halberstan do a biography of you.

Speaker 1 You don't let the NFL film crew follow you around for a year. Like he did care about that stuff, I think,

Speaker 1 a little more than people realize, right? That was always my take.

Speaker 2 Absolutely. I mean, legacy has always been important to him and not just his legacy, but the legacy of the things that he built.
I mean, I always was told that, like,

Speaker 2 you know, back when he thought he would always leave the Patriots on his terms, he would never leave it if they were down.

Speaker 2 Like he always wanted to hand over the team, a good team to his successor so that like no matter what you said about him, you could always say that he made decisions that he thought were best in the best interest of the team, not himself, but the team and the franchise.

Speaker 2 And that was a lasting legacy beyond him. you know, on the sidelines.
And watching him this year,

Speaker 2 and even he was throttled.

Speaker 2 you know you could tell there was moments where maybe he would have gone there a little bit more but he had to restrain himself a little bit because he knows that he still wants to get back in and he's not quite done with this and it's not quite his personality just to rip guys on that was my fear with him doing a podcast with us yeah how far is he gonna go is he gonna hold back but the gap between him and most of the league was just painfully obvious and yeah i get all the reasons that i i think there's a lot of people who thought that like remember when mike shanahan sat out a year and teams started to fire their coaches early so they could get the inside track on him yeah um there was a sense that might happen with belichek but because of the rules that are in place you know that never really happened and plus i just don't think

Speaker 2 i think owners just had

Speaker 2 you know like we've talked about all their reasons as valid or not as as they may be of of why

Speaker 2 they would rather bring in someone else. And

Speaker 2 it's like, it's kind of hard not to be happy for Belichick and, you know, that he's landed in a place that he seems legitimately stoked about.

Speaker 1 Yeah. And even the crafts,

Speaker 1 they did end up with Drake May somehow, right? They probably have one of the four worst coaches in the league.

Speaker 1 They have one of the, I think, one of the worst front offices in the league that just had a horrible draft and a horrible free agency.

Speaker 1 But they do have this. this guy now who has a chance to be one of the five or six best QBs in the league.
And the whole fan base is completely in on him.

Speaker 1 And now it's become, I look at it and I'm just like, Vrabel's sitting there.

Speaker 1 Like, I don't understand.

Speaker 1 If you go back and you look at Vrabel's Tennessee career, in 2021, he was 12 and 5.

Speaker 1 And go look at that team. Like, it's kind of like about to be washed up.
Maybe he already was Tan Hill. Derek Henry plays half the season.

Speaker 1 AJ Brown is about to get traded for Traylon Burks straight up or Trayvon Burks, whatever his name

Speaker 1 And they overachieve with that team and then

Speaker 1 they trade Brown. QB situation goes sideways.

Speaker 1 Vrabel starts battling the front office and he's gone. And now he's just sitting there.

Speaker 1 And to me, like what we were talking about earlier about Harbaugh, Peyton, there's just like seven, eight coaches, Tomlin, seven, eight coaches that really matter.

Speaker 1 I think Vrabel's one of the seven or eight. You have Drake May.

Speaker 1 I don't understand if these last four games for the Pats don't go badly. If they go badly, just admit the mistake and hire Vrabel.
He's a Patriot Hall of Famer. I think he'll come.

Speaker 1 Why wouldn't they do it?

Speaker 2 Well, a couple of things. I think that, like, first of all, Vrabel is suffering from a little bit of the same thing that Belichick has.

Speaker 2 Like, you know, this perception that you got to give him the keys and let him do it his way. I think that guy's an excellent, excellent coach.

Speaker 2 I actually think that, I mean, it's obvious that Tennessee was better under him and they were tougher under him.

Speaker 2 I actually think that if you are trying to to develop Will Levis, he was better for that because he knew how to protect quarterbacks. Right.

Speaker 2 Like he knew how to run an offense that didn't put everything on them and took some of the pressure off. And,

Speaker 2 you know, I think he's suffering from a little bit of the stuff you see from Belichick.

Speaker 2 Would the crafts move on from Turad Mayo? I don't think so. I mean, I don't think so.

Speaker 2 I think Kraft has said publicly that he decided in 18 or six

Speaker 2 years, 18, 17, yeah, somewhere around that time that he was going to succeed belichek

Speaker 2 and it's unless there's something that's going on in the building that's so dysfunctional that hasn't come out yet that is just beyond intolerable i would really have a hard time seeing robert craft you know move on from from a coach like that after one year i agree and yet i do feel like this is one of those situations where it From everything we've seen this first year, there's really no glimmer of hope so far with the coach coach and the coaching staff and really any piece of this.

Speaker 1 And now it's like, well, we're so now we're going to run. And then a year from now, we'll change everything.

Speaker 1 That's why these

Speaker 1 next four games, well, these next four games are going to be so important because like Arizona this weekend is a winnable game for them. Arizona, I think, has overachieved a little.

Speaker 1 They're not that talented, from a talent standpoint, not like crazy different than the Pats. And May might be able to just beat them by himself.

Speaker 1 But if they play Buffalo twice, I forget who the last game is, but I feel like if they go 0-4

Speaker 1 and it's like a bad 0-4, I'm prepared for anything because Kraft's old. These owners get old and they're like, fuck it.

Speaker 1 I'm in my 80s. Like, I don't want to go down this way.

Speaker 2 And plus, with Bray Bull, as prickly as he can be, they're used to that. Like, they're like, whatever.
Like, you know, whatever. you know, Tennessee can't handle, they're like, it's fine with us.

Speaker 2 This is a beach. Like, we've been through

Speaker 1 Right.

Speaker 2 And, and he's, you know, and he's a good coach. He's a really good coach.
It's a real.

Speaker 1 Well, the funniest thing to me is why Chicago wouldn't hire him.

Speaker 1 And it's like, they're enamored with Ben Johnson. He calls great plays.
It's like, how much evidence do we need that that might not be the deciding reason to hire a coach?

Speaker 1 In the last like 15 years, Kyle Shanahan is the only real whiz kid, new coach. Even somebody like McVay, who I think gets credit for that.
McVay's a football coach.

Speaker 1 He's doing everything on all sides.

Speaker 1 He's a people manager. He's a strategist.
He's not just like,

Speaker 1 here are my 50 plays I'm bringing in the game. Freable is like a culture changer.
Chicago needs to,

Speaker 1 they play in the worst weather probably in the league, other than maybe two other cities. Like they need to be tougher on the lines.
They need to be able to protect Caleb.

Speaker 1 I don't understand how just hiring a play car is going to be the answer for them, but what do I know?

Speaker 2 Absolutely. And it's a little bit like Belichick.
I mean, you know, he's a total head coach. He can go coach running backs if he needs to.

Speaker 2 And Vrabel is a very similar, he learned, you know, from him and others, but like Vrabel is a total head coach. I'll never forget

Speaker 2 Belichick's last playoff game. I guess we're saying last, oh, the last playoff game with Brady

Speaker 2 when they lost to the Titans at home on that on that rainy night.

Speaker 2 You know,

Speaker 2 the Patriots need the ball back. They get a stop and you keep thinking, you're thinking, this is when, you know, we've seen this.
Yeah. You know, all of a sudden, they're going to turn it on.

Speaker 2 And Vrabel deploys that clock management trick that Belichick had used against the Jets earlier that year. And Belichick's just going nuts on the sideline and melting down.

Speaker 2 And you can tell he is hot because,

Speaker 2 but, but Vrabel had learned, like, he had studied the guy, and he knew the exact situation when to use that. That is next level coaching.
And when you watch, like, again, the end of like the Bears

Speaker 2 Lions game, which is just like a debacle on every front, it's just obvious that there are some of these guys out there that are fundamentally coaching and teaching a different sport, and others are just kind of glorified play callers.

Speaker 2 And that would be my concern with Ben Johnson, even though he's an imaginative play caller.

Speaker 1 Yeah, Sal and I talked about it a little on Sunday.

Speaker 1 I just think being a head football coach and being somebody who specializes on one side of the ball or the other, over and over again, I would just rather have the overall head coach who's

Speaker 1 like Kevin Clark wrote a really good piece for us on the ringer.

Speaker 1 I think it was for the 23 season about Vrabel and all the stuff that he did for the Titans.

Speaker 1 People can go back and read it, but just about how he would grab different time with different, you know, he'd just be like, oh, I'm going to spend a half hour with the left guard because I don't like the way that he's stepping back on just every aspect of the team.

Speaker 1 And I think for the Patriot fans, like the stuff we read and hear about Mayo, like we're just, it just doesn't seem like that's happening. Not to mention the media stuff's been bad.

Speaker 1 The game management stuff's been bad. The team is exceptionally sloppy.

Speaker 2 And

Speaker 1 I'm waiting for a light at the end of the tunnel with him because it would be a hell of a lot easier for all of us if he was a good coach or had a chance to be a good coach. But these next four,

Speaker 1 these next four games are going to determine it. All right.
So you announced you have a new book coming in September.

Speaker 1 It's called American Kings, a biography of the quarterback available for pre-order now.

Speaker 1 And you just used your massive media clout to just go get time with a bunch of famous quarterbacks and find out what's going on with that position.

Speaker 2 Including Drake May. But yeah, you know,

Speaker 2 I wanted to write a book that, you know, takes the most encompassing look at this position I possibly could. You know, what's it like to do at every one of these levels? What does it build in you?

Speaker 2 What does it strip away? What is it like doing in high school, college, as a rookie?

Speaker 2 How did this thing become cool? You know, the answer, as it turns out, goes back to 1885 and runs right through LA in the coming decades. Wow.

Speaker 2 And, you know, then what is it like to live with this the rest of your life? And what ways is it incompatible with kind of future happiness? I, you know, that's, that's what I wanted to do.

Speaker 2 And yeah, I spent some time with your boy Drake May when he was at Carolina and his family and the coaching staff there at the time. And

Speaker 2 I really enjoyed, you know, spending time with him.

Speaker 2 And I do think that like part of the reason he was appealing to the Patriots, there's a Brady factor there where it's like you had the youngest kid in a family of achievers who had to fight for attention.

Speaker 1 Yeah. And,

Speaker 2 you know, when he decided to go to North Carolina, he knew, you know, right then that like, it's not about whether you make it in the NFL or not.

Speaker 2 It's actually just whether you have something to say at Thanksgiving with your family around. You know, did you, did you do something that year that lets you have be part of that conversation?

Speaker 2 And anyway, I had a great time reporting it and working on it and looking forward to September.

Speaker 1 Yeah, I obviously was obsessed with that draft in april and reading everything talking to as many people as i could talk to and um

Speaker 1 and i was so all in on on may i but manning ironically i was at a thing with him and i was just picking his brain because he knew may a little bit and i was like i really feel like may's the guy and and manning was like oh yeah

Speaker 1 That guy's the man. Like that guy's going to be really good.
I was like, really? Like, I was like a little kid. Really? You think he's going to be good?

Speaker 1 But I do think part of it, and I'm sure your book taps into that, is how the guys who have done it can spot things with the next guys.

Speaker 1 Like, oh, like they just kind of know who has and who doesn't. And May's been, it's been the opposite of,

Speaker 1 you know, some of the other people we've had in different sports over the years. May's just been, he's checked every box.
It's crazy. Like he even knows what to say in the press conferences already.

Speaker 1 It's nuts.

Speaker 2 He has. And I mean, I think, like, to take back what you said, I mean, I think there's an element of it where, you know, they think they can.
And then sometimes they can't too.

Speaker 2 So like, you know, what makes this job and these weird responsibilities it has so unique and so

Speaker 2 hard, you know, so mythologized and so hard to predict baffles these guys. I mean, Steve Young loved Zach Wilson, mentored him.
Right. And, you know, what happened?

Speaker 1 What happened? What happened to Sam Darnold? How does he go from

Speaker 1 it? That's the thing. I think situation so much of it, which is why the Drake Maid thing has been amazing because he's in a bad situation.

Speaker 1 He's got bad receivers and a bad offensive line, and it doesn't seem like his coaching staff's that great. Although Van Pelt might be all right, but

Speaker 1 Darnold, holy shit, you look back at the situation he was in, it was like, of course he wasn't going to succeed, especially at the age he was at.

Speaker 2 And to tie it all back, and to tie it all back, Belichick used Darnold to take another crack at the Jets.

Speaker 1 Oh, yeah. He loved that.

Speaker 2 He loved mentioning that every team wanted to keep Darnold and liked him except for the Jets.

Speaker 1 Right. All right.
Well, I look forward to reading that book. It's a great idea.
Seth, awesome to see you. Read his piece today if you want even more information on this, but I hope all is well.

Speaker 2 Thanks, man. Good to see you.

Speaker 1 All right, Joe House is here. We're going to do some million-dollar picks in a second, brag about our record, do all that stuff.
But NBA Cup is the semifinals are Saturday night.

Speaker 1 The odds on FanDuel: OKC's plus 115, Milwaukee's plus 270, Rockets 4-1.

Speaker 1 Atlanta, a feel-good, super fun bet at plus

Speaker 1 550.

Speaker 1 My instinct says just lay the plus 115 with OKC and call it a day.

Speaker 1 I kind of landed the exact same place as you,

Speaker 1 what we saw in terms of how they handled Dallas. And I really enjoyed the breakdown, you, Jacoby, Kirk Goldsbury.
I felt like it took you guys too long to get to the part where Luca sucked.

Speaker 1 He sucked, sucked. He just was a flat-out no-show.
He couldn't go up and down the court. And what was crazy to me was

Speaker 1 in the previous three games, he looked fine. He looked like he was all the way back.
But I don't know if it was a setback. I don't know where his head was at.

Speaker 1 He was out of that game before it even really got going, BS. Yeah, it seemed like that OKC team is kind of a bitch to go against with all those swings they have and all those athletes.

Speaker 1 They just seem like they knocked him out of his rhythm in the first half and that was it. It shouldn't have been that easy though.
But if I'm okay, see, we talked about it Tuesday night.

Speaker 1 Like, that's such a good outcome that that's the team. That's one of the hurdles you needed to get over in the West.
And now you just feel like you can go at those guys.

Speaker 1 So, they're playing the Houston Pitbulls on Saturday night,

Speaker 1 who are just the classic. I don't know why I love this team so much because their last few minutes of their offense is so,

Speaker 1 you know, it's just, it's just a chore, which is why Jimmy Butler shot.

Speaker 1 Yeah, I talked earlier about a Jimmy Butler trade, but they just desperately need somebody who can get a really good shot. Doesn't appear like it's going to be Jalen Green.
But

Speaker 1 I just like the, I think it's going to be an awesome back and forth game. We saw it two weeks ago.
I loved it.

Speaker 1 The Atlanta game, Atlanta, Milwaukee with that weird, goofy Milwaukee team. And I know Giannis can just have the 38, 19 and just overpower them.
But

Speaker 1 I talked about it earlier in the pod. I continue to be infatuated by this Atlanta team, and you feel the same.
You know, I do because we bet heavily on them in the preseason. We did.

Speaker 1 We imagined this possibility with their size and their versatility. And lo and behold, you know, every once in a while, we get a couple of things right.

Speaker 1 And this was the team we thought for sure that DeJounte Murray was an enormous addition by subtraction because what they got back in Dyson Daniels and Larry Nance Jr., like, it's a mindset.

Speaker 1 It wasn't just, you know, the sort of the player aspect of it, but they are long. They can, they defend from side to side.
They defend full length.

Speaker 1 And they are a team that can score late in games that I'm not worried are going to get good looks. The shot selection.
No, you get worried about the 29-footer from Trey.

Speaker 1 So I said earlier in the pod, Trey is at this really, really interesting inflection point where I feel like it's either going to happen or it's not.

Speaker 1 You know, like statistically, all these signs that he's going a little bit downhill as a scorer, and yet he's on the most fun hawks team he's ever been on the kind of team we would create if we're trying to create a team for him where he's got lobbers and lob lob targets and shooters all these things people to protect him on defense and now i want to see him elevate and i think both of us are suspicious that it's in there well i i was going to ask you to clarify what you mean whether um it's going to happen or not Because my

Speaker 1 immediate response is, it's happening. We are seeing it.

Speaker 1 But not statistically for him, though. I guess that's the difference is, could he become with all these weapons, could he turn into like a 24 and 12 guy and a 40% shooter and all the stuff we need?

Speaker 1 The only stat that matters is the assists. Like if he continues to lead the league or be right up there, top three in assists with this set of assets, then I would say, yeah, yeah.

Speaker 1 I mean, you know, this team has the composition. of a team that can make some noise in the playoffs.
They were so tough against the Knicks.

Speaker 1 That's always, you don't know whether a team's going to show up and be prepared to have that bully instinct. They bullied the Knicks.
They had 10 more offensive rebounds. Yeah.

Speaker 1 They kicked the Knicks right

Speaker 1 in the front and the back of the lower section there. Yeah, I thought it was a moment.
You know, and I think... Trey is such an interesting guy to discuss and watch.

Speaker 1 And there's so many things I don't like about his game, like that Lakers game. He just took a couple of horrible shots, but then he'll make a shot, right?

Speaker 1 But the thing I do like about him is the swagger and the competitiveness is there. Like you knew at the end of the game, he wasn't going to be afraid of the moment.

Speaker 1 And the guys that he has around him, even that Risachet, and we watched him before the season in that Brooklyn exhibition game.

Speaker 1 And both of us, you were at my house and we were just watching going, what's up with this guy? We kind of like this guy. Maybe.
Yeah. Yeah.
And, you know,

Speaker 1 I just think it's a bunch of dudes that. Bogdanovich comes in.
He's not scared. It's a bunch of guys that aren't afraid.
So

Speaker 1 I'm kind of leaning toward liking them in that Milwaukee Milwaukee matchup as an underdog. They are plus 148, plus three and a half.

Speaker 1 I'm on record.

Speaker 1 I'm on record. I'm on the gambling pod.
It was

Speaker 1 already up. I've played them on the money line and the points.
I'll take them both ways. Yes, sir.
Please. Oh, wow.

Speaker 1 A double helping of Hawks. The Milwaukee team continues to be, you know, it's just everything they can extract from Giannis, and they need a good game,

Speaker 1 good to great game from Dame just to be. They lost by 15 points a week ago.
Now, no Middleton, but, you know, okay.

Speaker 1 And

Speaker 1 Dame shot very well from three, had 25 points, and Giannis did one of his 38-19s, and they still got their ass handed to him. It's just a bad matchup, I think, for Milwaukee against this Hawks team.

Speaker 1 Couldn't agree more. Because Giannis could still have the 38-17, and they could still lose.
They're going to put Daniels.

Speaker 1 They're going to try to take out Dame with Daniels and some of the other swings. Somebody like Trey has always been a problem for this Bucs team with how to guard these shifty point guards.

Speaker 1 So if Trey plays well, they win. I almost feel like you could do the Hawks money line with some sort of Trey overbed.
All right,

Speaker 1 let's talk some football. Let's do it.

Speaker 1 We're doing really well on million-dollar picks. I'm not going to be able to do that.
We won $551,000 last week. We are up $1.764 million.
It's pretty good.

Speaker 1 This is one of my favorite weeks of the year. It almost scares me a little.

Speaker 1 There's just, it's playing all the hits for me. I love good to decent teams, three points are under.

Speaker 1 I love Mike Tomlin getting points. You could probably guess what my picks are going to be.
There's like an easy teaser. So we'll go through some of it.
Steelers, Eagles. Steelers plus five and a half.

Speaker 1 I'll let you take the floor because I heard what you said on the Ringer Gambling show today, and you had a couple points on this game that I just wholeheartedly agreed with.

Speaker 1 Do your what good defense has Philly played thing? Yeah, well, I went through their list of wins, and please don't misunderstand a nine-game winning streak is outstanding, it's excellent.

Speaker 1 But when you go through the teams that they've beat, I don't think you can get to a top 10 defense. I think you're hard-pressed to get to a top 15 defense.
Now, they wait, can I give them quick?

Speaker 1 Please, please, Cleveland, Cleveland, Giants, Cincy, Jaguars, Cowboys, Washington, Rams, Baltimore, Carolina.

Speaker 1 And it's not like they were throwing up 40 points a game either against those defenses, but that speaks to like just nobody even remotely approaching what Pittsburgh has.

Speaker 1 Yeah, and I guess Cleveland would be the best out of that group, but right.

Speaker 1 So the thing about Pittsburgh and why I think it's going to be a shock to the system is their ability to bring a pass rush that these Eagles have not seen this entire season.

Speaker 1 And the Steelers are really rounding into form in terms of, you know, their quick pressure rate, their ability to disrupt, and they have health at the linebacker position, both Herbig and Alonzo Highsmith healthy.

Speaker 1 And I just think.

Speaker 1 Yeah, so.

Speaker 1 We already know that this Eagles defense is one-dimensional.

Speaker 1 They are the least passing team in the NFL, The fewest number of attempts and completions in the entire NFL, Jalen Hurts and this Eagles passing defense.

Speaker 1 They're 31st in a passing league that has some horrible quarterbacks. They're 31st out of 32.
So

Speaker 1 you want to give this Steelers defense a one-dimensional look? Do you think that they'll load the box and say, please, try and run on us?

Speaker 1 And, you know, I think this is finally a matchup where the Eagles, very excellent offensive line. Again, don't misunderstand me.

Speaker 1 They're going to meet their match in terms of what this Steelers defensive front seven can bring to the table. And Pittsburgh has a way better special teams.
Yes.

Speaker 1 Like Pittsburgh has one of the preeminent special teams of this decade.

Speaker 1 The season Boswell is having, I think Boswell might be having the greatest fantasy football season by a kicker in the last 15 years.

Speaker 1 I had him on the voteout league that I'm in with Sal and Hench and those guys.

Speaker 1 And I didn't make the playoffs. My team sucked.
And I felt felt bad. I almost felt like sending Boswell a letter.

Speaker 1 I'm sorry I let you down. You did everything you could.
This wasn't your fault, Boswell. You should have figured out a way to put him on a contender.

Speaker 1 I mean, you know, I understand the dynamics that are at work, but like, is John Hamm still alive? He could have done something nice for you.

Speaker 1 He might have over 200 fantasy points this year. Just outrageous.
But that's like the kickers don't do that. The top kicker is usually 160, 170.

Speaker 1 So they have him, the Tomlin factor, Tomlin as an underdog, Philly's first rushing offense.

Speaker 1 Pittsburgh's fourth against the run in the entire league. Yeah, that's great.
And the only thing that worries me is the pickets part. That's it.
They're not going to have pickets.

Speaker 1 That's a viable concern. And you're not imagining a game script here where Pittsburgh tries to get the ball way down the field, which has been

Speaker 1 one of their pathways to success with Russell Wilson. He's been throwing a very nice deep ball, but that's not the way.

Speaker 1 The way that they win this game is field position, special teams, defense, longer, under, under. You're just laying out unders left and right.
You're absolutely right.

Speaker 1 I think this has been a season about the general public underestimating things. And Pittsburgh is like the leader of the pack with that.

Speaker 1 People have underestimated them before the season, as the season was going. People kept looking for reasons.
And then this is the most offensive line of them all.

Speaker 1 Like the Eagles could win and win by 14. I still think the line's offensive.
I think it's a three-point game.

Speaker 1 I can't believe it's five and a half, especially with how the Eagles looked last week, barely beating Carolina, having some sniping after the game. And this is like where Pittsburgh loves to be.

Speaker 1 Like, it's going to be, the weather's not going to be that bad, but it's a Pennsylvania game. So not long travel.
And to me, it just feels like a 20 to 16, 19 to 16, 21 to 20.

Speaker 1 So I was looking at different bets. Like, the other thing is the Steelers are five and a half.
So Vegas is like, we don't know. We're throwing this to the Vegas zone.

Speaker 1 Steelers plus four and a half on FanDuel is even money. Okay.
Steelers plus five and a half is like minus 113.

Speaker 1 If you do Steelers plus four and a half with an under of 45 and a half, that's plus 198. It's almost 21.
Great. And I guess my question to you is,

Speaker 1 so how many points become unrealistic for a game like this? Because if we don't think the Eagles are going to be able to run the ball, that might actually lead to more long passes.

Speaker 1 But I don't think the Steelers are going to be able to get the same explosive plays that they used to have.

Speaker 1 So the model for them to win is just run the ball, run the ball, control it, try to wear the Eagles out. And then on defense, the Eagles stubbornly try to run against them for a half.
It doesn't work.

Speaker 1 And then maybe it opens up second half. But

Speaker 1 I was looking at that. Steelers plus five and a half, under 47.5 is plus 163.

Speaker 1 Another great one.

Speaker 1 As many of these as you want to do. I'm here for it.
Steelers win the game outright with under 45 and a half is plus 328.

Speaker 1 So there's some good ones, but I normally my instinct would be to pull the Steelers up over seven. I don't think, I think in this one, like this is, this feels like a three-point game to me.

Speaker 1 And they've played these games all year, and I think, I think they're going to have a chip on their shoulder. And this might be a team they see in the Super Bowl FYI.

Speaker 1 I couldn't agree more with any of your handicap or assessment there. I want to just add a couple other layers.
You mentioned the special teams thing.

Speaker 1 Tell me how many field goals Jake Elliott has made of 50 yards or longer this season. Oh, god, probably like one.

Speaker 1 The answer is none. Wow.

Speaker 1 He is 0 for 5. So, if we're talking about, if we imagine a game script where it's tight, it's you know, uh, field position kind of game, those 50-yard field goals start to become important.

Speaker 1 And then, the last sort of element of it is like, who do you trust more in a game like this, Nick Siriani or Mike Tomlin? And, you know, that

Speaker 1 to me matters. What's the best unit in the game? And I would say it's Pittsburgh's defense.
Now, if Philly can run the ball on them,

Speaker 1 we'll know within a quarter and the game's probably over. But I think this, to me, this feels like a close game.
It feels like a field position game. Special teams will factor it in.

Speaker 1 And I just, I like some combination of maybe it's all the way up to 47.5. Maybe it's Steelers plus five and a half with the under 47.5, something like that.
Fine. I think that's the move.
Fine.

Speaker 1 Next one, Lions Bills.

Speaker 1 So

Speaker 1 this is Lions minus two and a half, which is just a complete F you to the Lions defense by everybody. People are like, you didn't fool us last week.

Speaker 1 Your team spent 38 seconds calling every play on offense and just doing everything they could to keep the defense off the field. And now you're going to play Josh Allen.
We don't trust you.

Speaker 1 My counter is that the Rams showed what to do against Buffalo last week.

Speaker 1 They ran the ball, they ran the ball, then they then play action or quick passes, and they just got first downs and moved the ball. And Detroit has a better offense than the Rams do.

Speaker 1 They have a better offensive line. I don't know how Buffalo, I just feel like they're going to get pushed backwards the whole game.
I think that's Buffalo is a team that needs the lead.

Speaker 1 And I think the Lions are just going to push him back, push him back. Maybe there's a scenario where Josh is chasing the cover late, but this defense looks like an awesome matchup for the Lions.

Speaker 1 So I'm more focused on their offense and less the defensive deficiencies. What are you looking at? Yeah, so this is, again, kind of a razor-thin coin-flip kind of game.

Speaker 1 And so you're trying to find the teeny, tiny slices that might tip it one way or the other.

Speaker 1 And, you know, if you were wanted, if you wanted to back the Bills and grab the points, you would talk about Detroit secondary being susceptible to explosives.

Speaker 1 And the Bills are getting back both Coleman and Kincaid this week. They're supposed to both be ready to play.
And we saw

Speaker 1 through

Speaker 1 the tremendous comeback against the Rams,

Speaker 1 Shakir was incredible. Allen is at the absolute peak of his powers.
And if he is out of structure,

Speaker 1 you don't worry about Josh Allen out of structure getting the ball down the field. He is the best quarterback that Detroit will have faced this whole season with a pretty healthy offense.

Speaker 1 And one of the things I'm interested in, I'm looking at it right now, James cooked these nuts over, because I do think that they are going to try and establish a little run.

Speaker 1 We're going to go cook these nuts over 52 and a half rushing yards, but that's just a side play for me.

Speaker 1 That would be a case. But if the Lions win this,

Speaker 1 would it think 30 points for them at least?

Speaker 1 Oh, I mean, the points are going to be abundant.

Speaker 1 And I don't want to do this, but I'm just saying, like, if you're, if you're taking the Lions, if you're like, I want to take the Lions plus two and a half, I would take Lions money line and do over 50 and a half, something like over 50 and a half lions money line is plus 206.

Speaker 1 I would do something like that. This is not going to be a 24 to 16 type of game.

Speaker 1 I think there's going to be points, but I feel like there's been a few times this year where Detroit's offense got discounted a little bit. Okay.
Even Green Bay last Thursday night.

Speaker 1 We all love Green Bay. We ended up, actually, I think we ended up winning that bet.
We won our bet because it was, you know, we got the three and a half. Yeah.

Speaker 1 But Detroit, 34 points, probably could have more. To me, this is just a

Speaker 1 just don't overthink it. Lions are home.
They need the game. That's the other thing.
It's not like they have a three-game lead in the NFC. Minnesota is one game behind them.
And

Speaker 1 their offense is just way better than Buffalo's, even though Buffalo's offense is really good. But like Detroit's plus 27 in touchdowns this year, Buffalo's plus 18.
Detroit's net yards.

Speaker 1 They've scored almost 1,000 more yards than the other team or gained 1,000 more yards. Buffalo's had 300.
Buffalo's had weeks where

Speaker 1 they just looks like they've like that Baltimore game, the game last week where it just feels like you can go up and down the field in them. And

Speaker 1 I like the matchup for Detroit.

Speaker 1 Here's the thing that really tips it for me. If it's a tight game, we're in the fourth quarter and it's time to

Speaker 1 start doing some math about the most efficient way to produce an outcome.

Speaker 1 I don't, we just watched it. Sean McDermott just has too many unforced errors in this regard.
And Dan Campbell never makes a mistake.

Speaker 1 It is like Dan Campbell and the Lions are at the same level as the Chiefs in terms of like, it's an end-of-game scenario, and I've got it mapped out, and I know the correct call to make.

Speaker 1 We might not execute, and we might lose the game because of a failure to execute, but I know the call I'm going to make and it's the right call and that's how we're going to win.

Speaker 1 McDermott just gets it wrong so many times too often. And I don't want to be in that position of watching this great game back and forth, back and forth.

Speaker 1 And the Bills have the ball and dumb dumb McDermott makes a dumb dumb call and they're like, God damn it, why did I invest in this team? Muscle not pot, like Detroit really needs the game.

Speaker 1 Buffalo, they're either going to be the two or the three seed.

Speaker 1 There's urgency, but not like crazy mats urgency. Wow, you think they could drop to four? No, I don't think we're, I don't know if we're going to get to the Chiefs, but I'm not.

Speaker 1 After what we watched in that game of the year. Oh, you think they get to the one seed?

Speaker 2 No, yeah, yeah.

Speaker 1 I'm not ready to cross off that.

Speaker 1 Bigger game for Detroit. Detroit has to win this game.
Fine, fine. That's fine.
Home game two. Campbell and Goff at home.
Last couple seasons, incredible against the spread.

Speaker 1 With that said, I hate hate betting against Josh Allen. Sure.

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More games that I like.

Speaker 1 Well, there's one I don't that I stared at that I wanted to throw in Chargers minus three at home against the Bucks. And I had them written down all week.

Speaker 1 I kept looking at it, kept looking at the injury report. And this seems like a week to stay away with the Chargers.
I just, there's something I don't like about it. The McCocky's not healthy.

Speaker 1 Dobbins is out.

Speaker 1 Herbert now has this sprained ankle situation again.

Speaker 1 And

Speaker 1 I feel like this line should be like Chargers by four. And

Speaker 1 the Bucs are trying to tell us something. The Bucks being a three-point underdog, like

Speaker 1 they didn't even look good last week. So

Speaker 1 it's a stay away to me, house. Yeah, and it is 100% the injury uncertainty.

Speaker 1 It was trending in a way that let me go ahead and get a little bit down on the Chargers minus three because I think it's a great number for the reason that you just laid out.

Speaker 1 I mean, the Bucs have a bunch of wins against nobody teams. They beat the Giants with Tommy DeVito.
They beat Carolina in overtime. They played the NFC South.
Right, right.

Speaker 1 I mean, they handled the Raiders because Aiden O'Connell broke his leg. Like, you know, there's a bunch of wins.
Now, again, you win.

Speaker 1 You have to play the games that are in front of you on your schedule. Congrats to them.
But brutal spot.

Speaker 1 What's the status of Bucky Irving? That will impact the handicap. And then what's the status? McConkey was running drills on Wednesday.

Speaker 1 So I started saying, well, this is part of why I went ahead and got down a little bit on that Chargers minus three.

Speaker 1 You can't have Herbert. under any circumstances impaired at all because

Speaker 1 what Tampa has been doing these last three weeks very successfully against bad teams is blitz, blitz, blitz, blitz. They've greatly increased their blitz rate and it's been successful.

Speaker 1 I know I'm coming on the ringer Sunday pregame on Sunday. I could see

Speaker 1 being back in on the Chargers on Sunday. I'm not doing it now on a Thursday afternoon.
Great. Here's a game I do love:

Speaker 1 Houston minus two and a half against Miami. Okay,

Speaker 1 Texans off a bye.

Speaker 1 Miami's past defense kind of getting semi-shredded by Aaron Rodgers,

Speaker 1 who's been done for three years.

Speaker 1 D'Amico Ryans versus Tua. Raheem talked about that on the Ringer Gambling Show today.
There was a San Francisco game with Tua that was not awesome for Tua.

Speaker 1 Houston's defense, seventh against the pass, second in sacks, second in tackles for a loss.

Speaker 1 Most importantly, House.

Speaker 1 We're kind of due for a good CJ Stroud game.

Speaker 1 We're just due.

Speaker 1 We're overdue.

Speaker 1 I know that's a gift thing to say, but he's got his receivers back. Nico Collins is back.
They're coming off a bye.

Speaker 1 It just feels like this is a first quarter where they come out swinging, make a couple big plays. They hit two a couple times.
I don't think Miami's good.

Speaker 1 And I think

Speaker 1 to me, this is a gift of a line. This line should be Texans by three and a half.
People don't trust Houston. I get it.
Not even sure Houston's that good.

Speaker 1 If they can't win this game, we might have to take their AFC South title house, just give it to somebody else. Well, the Colts are, you know, sort of hovering around.

Speaker 1 Interesting matchup against the Broncos, but I understand your point with this Dolphins team.

Speaker 1 I just can't unsee what the Jets did to them.

Speaker 1 It looked like, you know, Devontae Adams was open on every play.

Speaker 1 It looked like Wilson was open on every play.

Speaker 1 Nine-yard outs over and over again. I just, and it, the, the, uh,

Speaker 1 second. And Jalen Ramsey looked like shit in that game, didn't he? Right.
Yes, yes. They've, they put him on an island, and they're, they're just, they just cooked him.

Speaker 1 Um, the Houston Texans do not deserve to be trusted, but I think we finally might be in a situation where you, you outlined it properly. We're not laying a ton of points.
They're at home.

Speaker 1 It's off the by. We're dying for a CJ Stroud game.
And, you know, we saw a version of Houston at the beginning of the season where Joe Mixon was super effective. Like, oh, look at this.

Speaker 1 This Houston team might be an 11 or 12 win team. They went through their injuries and stuff.
Their offensive line is the issue. They can't really be trusted.
But I like the spot for Houston.

Speaker 1 I'm in your direction on this. You know what I like the most about this game?

Speaker 1 So if the Jets just finished the game last week, that stupid game that they gave away. Yes.
And the Dolphins lose to the Jets last week. What's the line on this game? Right.
Exactly.

Speaker 1 It's at least three and a half. It might even be four.
Yep. So instead, we're at two and a half because the Jets just decided to actually have like a stroke on the field.
They were so stupid.

Speaker 1 Houston's four and one. Here's another reason to be suspicious of Houston.
They're four and one against the South, a terrible division. They've also beaten

Speaker 1 the Bears, the Patriots, and the Cowboys.

Speaker 1 So this might be the best win they have in a while. Well, let me put this to you because you'll go through the stats, and you mentioned this, them coming out fast.

Speaker 1 They are one of the top five teams in the NFL in terms of scoring in the first half. Yeah.
And they don't have to lay very much in the first.

Speaker 1 We can look at the FanDuel Sportsbook to see what the first half spread is.

Speaker 1 They're one of the worst teams. They're one of the worst teams in the NFL in the second half.

Speaker 1 Bottom line. Yeah, the second half stuff is terrible with them.
Right.

Speaker 1 Yeah, I hate doing those first half.

Speaker 1 You don't like the exotics. You don't want to see It's minus one and a half.
We saved like a point, you know? Okay. All right.

Speaker 1 Listen,

Speaker 1 you did make me think.

Speaker 1 Do you think two is good? Yes. Yes, I do.
I do think it's good. If you're in the Pro Tua camp, I am a Pro Tua guy.
Yes. I just can't get there.

Speaker 1 Under the right circumstances. When he's playing either indoors or in Miami when it's 80 degrees, I think he's good.
And I do think that the DJ has created a playlist for him. They're spinning

Speaker 1 some smooth sounds down there

Speaker 1 where he can be super effective with those weapons. But under any kind of adverse conditions, as soon as they go outside, we watched it.
Forget about it. Yeah.

Speaker 1 Well, or if he's getting pounded by the passers. Yes.
Okay.

Speaker 1 Last straight-up game, Seahawks Packers.

Speaker 1 Still the stupefying line to me of the week, the lack of respect for Seattle. Pittsburgh and Seattle were the two.
I was like, wow,

Speaker 1 why am I seeing this so differently? Seahawks are plus two and a half at home against the Packers.

Speaker 1 I just don't get it.

Speaker 1 Now that, and you laid out the case on the gaming pod today, but I don't feel like the defense thing is a mirage. There was real reasons why they started to struggle defensively.

Speaker 1 All of their guys are back now. They're actually like playing really good defense.
McDonald's been there for a while. They understand what he's trying to do.

Speaker 1 And then the other thing that jumped out, especially last week, is the blocking for their offensive line went from

Speaker 1 horrific to pretty passable. Like they ran the ball down the throats of Arizona last week.

Speaker 1 Their last four wins, they beat San Francisco, and they won three road games last four weeks at San Francisco, home Arizona, at the Jets at Arizona.

Speaker 1 The other thing I like house, their third,

Speaker 1 they basically have the third best passing attack in the league, and that's been a weakness for Green Bay. So I'm trying to think of how Green Bay goes in there and just waltzes and beat them.

Speaker 1 It would have to be a pretty extraordinary Jordan Love game. And I think Seattle's defense can actually contain him.
Yeah, I mean,

Speaker 1 you went through those games that they won, including the road games. Those are all high-leverage games.
Those are all like season-determining games.

Speaker 1 They lose like really any of those, and they're probably out of the playoffs. And it's a real testament to McDonald.
And they did get healthy at the right time.

Speaker 1 The buy couldn't have come at a better time for them. So, since the buy, 50%

Speaker 1 disruption rate. We saw it against the Cardinals.
Number one impact, I do because top five disruption, that means that they're going in and not letting the offense get itself set into a scheme

Speaker 1 where they can execute what they have in mind. And they're certainly not letting the quarterback get set up.

Speaker 1 But to me, you mentioned on the offensive side that

Speaker 1 they had a zone blocking scheme. We saw Zach Charbonnet look like the guy that, you know, like, hey, yeah, look at him run the ball.
And they, they, that was really uh effective.

Speaker 1 It takes so much pressure off of Geno if they can run that way. And look, Geno, uh, from a clean pocket, nine touchdowns, two picks.
It's, it's like the diametric opposite under pressure.

Speaker 1 Five touchdowns, ten picks, but the Packers don't generate any pressure. They're 22nd in pressure rate and 26th in pass, rush, win rate.

Speaker 1 Pass rush? rush?

Speaker 1 You do it. You could do it.
Well, the last few games, they lost to Detroit twice.

Speaker 1 They came back and beat the Bears 20-19. Iberflues' last win.
They killed the San Francisco in the game when, which was a good win for them, but also San Francisco had a ton of injuries.

Speaker 1 And then they beat Miami on that Thursday night. And I like the Packers.

Speaker 1 I think they're a good team,

Speaker 1 but I don't think they should be favored in Seattle. If it was the Seattle from five weeks ago, I get it, but not the Seattle we've watched last month.
So to me, that's

Speaker 1 I think Seattle should be favored. And the rule is if

Speaker 1 you feel like you're getting so many more points than you thought you might be getting. Anyway,

Speaker 1 there's a couple things we can do with this. I think Seahawks money line is the play.
Oh, okay. Fine.

Speaker 1 But

Speaker 1 Seahawks and a teaser is kind of fun. That's one of my favorite legs of the week.
Seahawks

Speaker 1 minus two and a half is plus 154. Sure, great.

Speaker 1 In

Speaker 1 so maybe that's the money line.

Speaker 1 Maybe you play the money line and then put them in a teaser. So teaser possibilities.
I'm just insisting on one. The Chiefs are minus four and a half against the Browns.

Speaker 1 So it's more of a money parlay than a teaser, but

Speaker 1 the Chiefs are only minus four and a half in Cleveland. Bad weather.
It's the Chiefs. Nobody trusts them anymore to cover anything.

Speaker 1 The Browns are horrible.

Speaker 1 The Browns should be one. I went through their schedule.
The Browns should be one and 12. They're not horrible.
The Browns are horrible. They're 32nd in DVOA this year.
They're last.

Speaker 1 They're dead last with DVOA. They're getting more and more injuries every week.
Now Greg Newsom is out. They can't run the ball at all.
They can't run.

Speaker 1 At all. That's true.
And to beat the Chiefs, it's just going to have to be Jameis doing stuff every week. Well, you know, who we didn't think could run the ball at all? The LA Chargers.

Speaker 1 Now, I'm not going to

Speaker 1 sit here and say that Justin. You're not going to make the case for the Browns, are you?

Speaker 1 I like the Browns. I like the Browns quite a bit.

Speaker 1 In fact, I think this is the Browns Super Bowl, and I think there's a decent

Speaker 1 to

Speaker 1 validate their season. If they have a season where they beat the Ravens, they beat the Steelers, and they beat the Chiefs.
The Chiefs, they're terrible. They're not terrible.
Their defense is.

Speaker 1 I watched them last week week against Pittsburgh. They're terrible.

Speaker 1 Those were short field, mistake-driven

Speaker 1 scores. Like they held Russell Wilson to under 160 yards.
He didn't have

Speaker 1 a bad thing. It's a big short field.
I understand, but

Speaker 1 this Chiefs situation is busted. And I said on one of our shows this week, I can't wait to find the opportunity to fade them in the playoffs because I promise you I'm going to fade them.

Speaker 1 How about them in Cleveland just to win and beat Jameis Winston in a team that's missing a Kajillion guys? I'm not doing it.

Speaker 1 I can't endorse it. I think the very

Speaker 1 thing that JJ too much. No,

Speaker 1 I just can't. That secondary for the Chiefs

Speaker 1 has no solution.

Speaker 1 You can't name

Speaker 1 five of the guys that the Chargers had on the field catching passes last week. And it just didn't matter.
They were all open. They were open every time.

Speaker 1 It's why the Chiefs had to run the Anaconda offense at the end of that game to win. They had to strangle the Chargers for five minutes and get to a field goal and kick that field goal.

Speaker 1 It was their only chance to win because the Chargers otherwise would have gone down the field and won. Maybe the Chargers are good.

Speaker 1 They could be, but you can't name the guys that were catching balls at tight end or receiver for the Chargers. I could name them.
Josh Palmer, Quentin Johnston. Those guys.
Disley. They're so bad.

Speaker 1 Disley got hurt.

Speaker 1 It was so smart. So you don't trust the Chiefs, and yet

Speaker 1 I heard you earlier today talk about how much you like the Cowboys in a fucking tease. Wow.
The Cowboys who are reprehensible. Look,

Speaker 1 you trust the Cowboys? To getting eight and a half against the Carolina Panthers? Yes. I just need the Chiefs to beat the Browns.
They can win by half a point, and I win a bet. I hate it.
I hate it.

Speaker 1 You could say that about every team that the Chiefs, every bad team that the Chiefs have have have won by the the tiniest you know hair on their ass in each of these last they're they're one and seven against the spread um

Speaker 1 go ahead yeah i know all those stats but in a weird way you're proving my point

Speaker 1 the browns have jedi

Speaker 1 but the jowns have the browns have jedi mind trick people into thinking they're not terrible and they are

Speaker 1 they're 32nd in dvoa they're they have a worse dvoa than carolina new New England, Tennessee, Las Vegas, and the New York Giants. Worse than everybody.

Speaker 1 That number has so much Deshaun Watson spilled all over it.

Speaker 1 What about, did you see, what did James do last week that you liked other than just sail the ball over people's heads and make terrible plays? They had the backdoor cover staring them in the face.

Speaker 1 It was right there. Oh, my God.

Speaker 1 The other tease I like is the Vikings against the Bears, just because I'm tired of it. Yeah, yeah.
Oh, I'm tired of passing on Sam Darnold. Now you're talking.
Now you're talking. Yeah.

Speaker 1 And look, you know, if you wanted to go ahead and grab my team and go from seven and a half down to one and a half against Spencer Rattler, I don't trust your team. Spencer Rattler?

Speaker 1 I don't trust your team.

Speaker 1 The closest margin of

Speaker 1 27 corner defense against the Saints just running the ball like 200 times against you. Makes me nervous.
All right, fine. I don't trust your team.
I'm sorry. That's fine.

Speaker 1 I just wanted to put it out there. I'm not going to try and make the case.
Vikings minus seven against the Bears.

Speaker 1 The Vikings' weakness is you can kind of throw at them, and the Bears are 30th pass.

Speaker 1 That's a dead man-walking team.

Speaker 1 Minnesota.

Speaker 1 Fourth and sacks, not to mention all the Flora split stuff. Chicago 32nd.
The only case for the Bears is just that they played the Vikings pretty well a month ago. Yep.

Speaker 1 But now that Darnold, Jefferson, Addison, they're all humming again.

Speaker 1 Did you see that there was a long video of Kirk Cousins saying goodbye to everybody in Minnesota after the game? Did you see this? I think I sent this to you. You didn't, but I loved it.

Speaker 1 I'm dying already.

Speaker 1 It's a four-minute video. All the Vikings, all their players, coaches stuck around in the field to say goodbye to him after the game.

Speaker 1 Because his career is over? No, they loved him. They loved him so much that it was just guy after guy coming over, hugging him.
Hey, man, it's great to see you.

Speaker 1 He just seems like he was the most beloved teammate ever he's a gamer i mean

Speaker 1 he lost 200 million dollars by being a gamer not very good but a gamer

Speaker 1 so you're down on vikings minus seven oh a hundred percent down and

Speaker 1 what if i talk to you into casey money minnesota

Speaker 1 i'm not doing anything with kansas city i'm telling you casey money minnesota money seattle plus eight and a half is plus 150.

Speaker 1 you can do that on your own i'm not endorsing anything with you.

Speaker 1 I'm not mad. What is it about the Ringer gambling show that the shitty teams and the bad quarterbacks are like fucking catnip for you guys? I don't get it.

Speaker 1 I laid three and a half points with the Chiefs on Sunday night, and they showed flaws that are unlikely

Speaker 1 we've seen out of them. Yeah.
So I'm not, I'm out on them. They are super beatable.
They keep telling us who they are.

Speaker 1 Every single week, they get down to a single moment, a single score, and they've been on the correct side of the outcome. I'm not betting on that.
I'm not betting on that anymore.

Speaker 1 I'm done with the Chiefs.

Speaker 1 So there's a Minnesota Tease possibility with Seattle. Okay, in.

Speaker 1 I still like that Seattle minus

Speaker 1 Seattle minus two and a half, plus 154. Great.
Love it. No argument.

Speaker 1 I think that defense is super legit. Like

Speaker 1 Green Bay in Detroit got a version of a Detroit defense, and we were like, oh, Detroit, they're really banged up. This is going to be a hard spot for them.
And, you know,

Speaker 1 they were gamers. It wasn't that, you know, Green Bay went out and flew all over them.
But this Seattle defense is a different deal. And we're outdoors.

Speaker 1 Now, I respect, you know, Green Bay's outdoor acumen. I'm not suggesting that they're going to have a problem playing outdoors.
It's just a different kind of situation, different speed.

Speaker 1 All right. I think I know what we want to do for million-dollar picks.
All right, it's time. Million-dollar picks, week 15.
We are staying away from Niners-Rams tonight.

Speaker 1 As much as we usually like throwing a little something on the Thursday night, if we can get the pot up in time, to me, it's just an abject stayaway, Rams, Niners, staying away.

Speaker 1 So apologies to both of those teams. We did not want to wager on you tonight.

Speaker 1 Here's what we do want to do. And we're up $1.764 million.
We won $551,000 last week, House. It's pretty good.
First one, Steelers. We looked at this all different ways.

Speaker 1 We thought about money line with the under. We thought about Steelers plus four and a half on FanDuels, even odds, like all kinds of machinations.

Speaker 1 Both of us feel like this line is two to two and a half points too high because of the Steelers defense, how good it is. Such a good defense.
Don't trust the Eagles' passing offense? Do not.

Speaker 1 Love Mike Tomlin as an underdog? Love.

Speaker 1 The most underappreciated discounted team of 2024, the Pittsburgh Steelers,

Speaker 1 plus five and a half in Philly. We were putting $200,000 on that one, even though George, don't call me Carl Pickens, is not playing.
So there you go. That's our first one.

Speaker 1 Second one, Lions, minus two and a half at home against Josh Allen and the Bills. This is a straight backing of the Lions offense.
We are going in eyes wide open.

Speaker 1 Could be a fun live head, live hedgehouse near the end. Bills down 14 late.
Just jump on Josh. Try to middle it.

Speaker 1 You have to get Sean McDermott out of there, but yes.

Speaker 1 Who do you think is the best team right now? Just in general? Is it still the Lions for you? Detroit.

Speaker 1 Detroit. Yes.

Speaker 1 That's how I feel. All right.
Well, we get them under a field goal at home in a big game. Great.
And by the way, the Bills don't necessarily need the game.

Speaker 1 They're either going to be the two-seed or the three-seed unless Casey loses in Cleveland this week.

Speaker 1 If you missed the first part of the pod, House wouldn't let me put Casey in a teaser parlay, even though Cleveland's 30-second DVOA. Cleveland sucks.
They're terrible.

Speaker 1 I don't think they're seemed like a layup, and House threw his body in front of it. So I get to just send him MF or Texas if Casey's up by 20.
Next bet, Texans minus two and a half at home

Speaker 1 against the Miami Dolphins, who came very close to losing Aaron Rodgers, who gave up a 300-point game or 300-yard game to Aaron Rodgers, which should get kicked out of the league at this point.

Speaker 1 Texans minus two and a half, coming off a bye,

Speaker 1 swinging the ball around. Yeah, we have to see whether Toronto Armstead's even able to go for Miami.
Overtime game for Miami, all those extra plays.

Speaker 1 Houston off the bye, rested, and really ready to put their stamp on the

Speaker 1 back half of this season. They have a really tough schedule.
They have to win a home game like this. We are banking on this being a, hey, C.J.

Speaker 1 Stroud, welcome back to the season game combined with if the Jets had just take care of business beating the Dolphins last week, there's no way this line would be minus two and a half. And

Speaker 1 we're grabbing Houston 200K on that. Then we're putting a little

Speaker 1 teaser with Minnesota and Seattle. Minnesota is minus seven.
Seattle is plus two and a half at home against Green Bay. So we'll we'll nudge that up six points.
We're putting 200K on that.

Speaker 1 We don't understand the Seattle line at all. Minnesota at home against Chicago.
We believe in this Minnesota team.

Speaker 1 Still lingering, still hoping the Lions stumble and they can just hop up and grab the one seed. Sam Darnold, would you take him on the Commanders if you didn't have Daniels? I think you would.

Speaker 1 Oh, if we didn't have Daniels, sure. He would immediately be one of the best quarterbacks of the past 25 years in Washington.

Speaker 1 I would take him on the Pats if we didn't have Drake May, the future of the NFL on our team.

Speaker 1 I like him.

Speaker 1 It's a great bounce back season.

Speaker 1 And then we're going to do a little 50K parlay

Speaker 1 of the Pittsburgh money line combined with the Seahawks minus two and a half on FanDuel, which is plus 142. You put those two together,

Speaker 1 plus 638. That's juicy big.
Pittsburgh money line, Seahawks minus two and a half. We're going to put 50K on that.

Speaker 1 I really was trying to figure out a way to work Drake May into million dollar picks in Arizona because I think they actually might be dumb enough to beat Arizona this week, but we'll stay away.

Speaker 1 We don't need

Speaker 1 those

Speaker 1 million-dollar picks for week 15.

Speaker 1 Uh, House, we can see you on the Ringer Sunday pregame show. I might be stopping by.
Can't wait. Look at that.
Have you thought about who's your underdog pick? It's just going to be Pittsburgh, right?

Speaker 1 It might be. I mean, I, I, one of the other guys might jump ahead of me, but there's a lot of great um choices, including the Cleveland Browns.
I hope you're dumb enough to take them.

Speaker 1 We'll see. We'll see.
You know who I was looking at as a possible underdog? I wouldn't bet it, but just for if you're forced to take an underdog for that segment, the Riddler and the Raiders

Speaker 1 going against Atlanta in Vegas. Doesn't feel like the Raiders have one more dumb win in them.
It's the funniest outcome for sure.

Speaker 1 It would be hilarious. And I do think, you know, the guys, the defense for the Raiders

Speaker 1 will be playing because they know they're really auditioning for the next head coach of the Raiders. They're not playing for that guy any longer.
Yeah, I thought that one jumped out to me.

Speaker 1 Seahawks are somehow an underdog. I'm sure JJ will take them.
I don't mind that Pats has an underdog pick, though. Anyway, House, great to see you.
Enjoy the NBA Cup this weekend.

Speaker 1 I will see you next week. So thanks to House.
Thanks to Seth Wickersham. Thanks to Sarudi and Kyle and Gahal.
Don't forget new rewatchable is coming on Monday.

Speaker 1 Don't forget you can find all the clips from this podcast on my YouTube channel. And I think we're running video for this podcast as well.
So if you're on Spotify, just flip your phone. Just look.

Speaker 1 You might just see me in-house right now. I will see you on Sunday.
Enjoy the week.

Speaker 1 I don't have

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