The Best College QBs With Todd McShay. Plus, the Irresistible Jags, the Resistible Steelers, and NFL Week 4 Picks With Joe House

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All right, Todd McShay is here.

It's been a while.

Good to see you.

Good to see you, man.

How are we doing?

How are we feeling about football season so far?

College football seems like a B minus.

NFL is like a B plus.

I think it's going to go to B plus for college football this weekend.

Oh, good.

Yeah, it's a big weekend.

We've got, obviously, we've got Penn State and Oregon.

We've got Georgia and Alabama.

We've got LSU old miss.

So there's like nine games with ranked teams that are, it's a pretty wild slate.

But it's been a frustrating year, man.

It's like taxi cab confessions for me coming on with you.

I've been like tiptoeing around it on my show because I've tried to be careful.

And there's some young quarterbacks that I think are playing at a really high level.

The veterans who I was, I came into the year is like screaming at everybody.

This is the golden age of quarterbacks.

And we've got all these last year's class was subpar.

Like, this could be closer to two years ago in 2024 when we had six drafted in the top 12.

Yeah.

And then the season starts, and it's like Nuss Meier's struggling.

Klubnik's regressed.

Arch is not who we thought he was.

Sellers gets injured and it's kind of up and down.

So it's been a little frustrating.

So I'm here to talk about it with you.

All right.

Let's go rapid fire because I went back and I found your newsletter when you basically did like your top 15 heading into into the season for like a

mini mock draft, right?

You club Nick first in the mock draft at Clemson.

They're one and three.

There's like, there's possible like, are we sure he's going to finish the season as the starter kind of stuff happening?

Like, yeah, I mean, we've seen this before.

Sanders was one at one point last year on some of the boards and he fell to the fifth round.

But were you shocked that it turned out this badly this fast?

Yes.

Yes.

And And I'm like here to freely admit it.

I spent some time at the Manning Passing Academy this summer, kind of, you know, just talking to people and getting to know who he is as a guy.

And he's everything you stand for and a leader and just a great human being and attacks the process.

And we saw last year, because the year back in

2023, he was kind of disappointing.

Yeah.

And then last year, as the season progressed, like he started to carry Clemson as they got on that run late in the year.

They obviously got to the ACC championship game, won that, got to the playoff.

Even in the loss to Texas, he did some really good things.

And I remember sitting there in Thibodeau, Louisiana with the general manager and being, you know, and he hasn't like, he didn't quite dive into the quarterbacks yet.

And I'm like, he's not there yet talking about Club Nate,

but I think he's ready to take that next step.

And so far,

it's been really disappointing.

He lost his top receiver in the first game, like first quarter of the first game against LSU, Antonio Williams.

But Williams comes back this past week, and he just, he doesn't look comfortable in the pocket.

He doesn't look comfortable with his reads.

He's panicky.

It's not at all what I expected.

And it's, it's disappointing for Clemson fans, obviously.

It's disappointing for NFL general managers who thought, like me, he could take that next step.

And so you look around the landscape, right?

And not to shift gears, the thing I'm most shocked about, because I didn't have him on on my preseason rankings, so I'm not sure if you'd even bring him up.

Dante Moore from Oregon is the best passer of the football in all of college football.

He's what the NFL is looking for.

And the problem with Dante was he came out and he wasn't like great in the Elite 11 stuff and all of that.

He went to UCLA and that thing was a mess.

I think he started five games, transfers last year.

We don't hear about him.

Reports out of Eugene this summer is like he's in a quarterback battle, has not established himself.

And then he comes into the season.

And you got it.

And the reason I've been slow to bring him up, and I finally talked about what I saw on tape on just the show yesterday.

Yeah.

The reason I've been slow is like, I have a responsibility, right?

And I talk to general managers and what I don't like is head coaches calling me in the college football and saying, well, you got my guy in the first round and he's not ready yet.

So I'm really careful with these young quarterbacks, especially.

We've seen that from Trent Richardson to Trubisky to Mark Sanchez, like the 13 starts and inexperienced guys, it's not working.

And so I don't want to like jump, you know, jump in headfirst and be like, I'm all in on this guy, but I'm all in on this guy.

Wow.

Okay.

Montana State, Oklahoma State, Northwestern, Oregon State.

None of them are good.

None of them.

And so I'm saying this before Penn State this week, it'll whiteout night game, Happy Valley, all of it.

And it could, you know, it may not go perfectly, but when you see it and you know it, like it's just there.

His ability to drive the ball down the field.

He reminds me, he's just a smooth criminal throwing the ball.

He's got some, some parts of like Jordan Love.

He's got some

aspects of like C.J.

Stroud at his best.

He's got some Baker Mayfield to him, catchable ball, driving it down the field, using his eyes to see the whole thing and manipulate defenders.

He's just the best pure passer in the country.

And I can now see that.

Could you see a world where he's the number one pick next April?

I absolutely could, but I hope he's not.

I hope he's not in the 2026 draft for him.

Not for Oregon, even though obviously Will Stein has done a tremendous, I mean, Will Stein came in and they were kind of a relative unknown as the offensive coordinator at Oregon.

Yeah.

He had, look what Bo Nicks did under him.

Remember, Bo Nix was kind of a laughingstock in NFL scouting circles at Auburn.

Well, now it's circling back.

I hear you.

I hear you, but he's the 12th overall pick.

He played really well his rookie year.

So I'm just saying,

but what Will Stein got and then what he developed him into is the 12th overall pick.

Then he gets Dylan Gabriel, who's not nearly as talented as Bo Nix and not nearly as talented as Dante Moore.

And he's a third round pick and won the starting job.

Pickets out.

Shador's on the sideline watching during practice.

So

another year with Will Stein, I think, would be the best thing for Dante more.

But if you're asking me right now, based off of a tiny sample size and four starts at Oregon, I think he's tracking to be the number one overall pick if things continue to play out.

Yeah, so that's why I wanted to jump the gun here and get that in there.

Well, the four you had before the season, and I love, I love these lists because it just shows you like we're you're trying to, not you, just everybody.

We're trying to predict kids that are 19, 20, 21, 22, right?

And

who the fuck knows what's happening with them off the field they might have like have some girlfriend break up with them they might have some some roommate they don't like you just don't know it's like all the variables in place but you had klubnik first you have nussmeyer fourth you had sewers sixth and you have mendoza 15th and then penn state quarterback hours not in there matir who people have gotten excited about this season uh the baylor quarterback carson beck we got to talk about the beckasants yep and then dante more and then we didn't mention Arch Manning, who got the most attention of everybody before the year.

But now, I mean, there's no, I mean, you didn't think he was coming out to begin with.

You were pretty adamant, like, he is not coming out.

This will not happen.

But now there's no way he's coming out anyway, right?

Yeah, I tried to warn everyone starting back in May, you know, and I have a great deal of respect and a relationship with the Mannings.

And I can absolutely separate, you know, business from friendship.

And

even Arch at his best on tape last year just wasn't ready.

And there were some things, some warning signs that you saw on tape, right?

And Sarkeesian, there's a reason that the Mannings chose Steve Sarkeesian, right, in Texas, because he can kind of mask things and develop quarterbacks better than the vast majority of people in college football.

You think that's a huge reason why they picked him?

I think the developmental aspect of it and Texas's resources and everything that the program has going for them.

But I'd be lying to you if I told you I thought we'd see this.

I mean, from the mechanics to the lack of certainty and decisiveness as a thrower

to just the flat-out misses,

he's got a long way to go.

And I'm not saying he can't.

And we saw Jaden Daniels was a third, fourth-round prospect going into his final year at LSU.

He was considered like a fifth, sixth, seventh-round guy when he came to LSU.

So

Cam Ward was a fifth rounder.

If you polled NFL scouts like Pete Thamble does for game day when he polls NFL scouts for, you know,

Cam Ward was a, was a fourth, fifth coming into last year.

He's the number one overall pick.

Even September, there was no chance he was not on anybody's radar to go first.

No.

You know what?

I think a big piece of this is, because I was watching, I watched that entire first game Arch Manning had.

He just couldn't have been more impressive.

And you think of all the hype that comes in.

And I was trying to think, is there another sport that we have where there's more pressure on somebody who's 19, 20, 21 years old?

Maybe, I mean, you would know better, but maybe the NBA, when a guy comes out of high school.

But the thing with the NBA is even if they come in after one year and they're 19, they're always going to a bad team.

They're not in a situation where there's like spotlight expectations, title chances at stake, any of that stuff.

You kind of come in and it's like a bonus if they're good in the first couple of years.

Like Anthony Edwards, when he went to Minnesota, nobody remembers like what team he was on that first year.

It's like, oh, he might be good.

This is great.

You have a situation like some of these guys that come in

where not only is are they being discussed in like the best possible ceiling of whatever could happen when they haven't even done anything yet, but then you also have like these giant, giant games, all the discourse about it.

You're going to a stadium with 80,000 people.

And I just feel like when it craters, it feels like it would crater the most in college football for our keyboard.

Our arch is an economy right now in Austin.

Like, yeah, when you,

I can't remember a guy who hasn't been a true starter coming into a year where it was like Heisman favorite, like for like fan duel, you know, like these are, these are not places that lose money.

Number one overall pick by a lot of people who didn't kind of weren't in the know, but a lot of people who are highly respected in this space.

And meanwhile, you didn't even think he was coming out.

No, no.

What about the Manning history and the Manning's devotion to process and development and Eli going back for his fifth year and Peyton going back for his final year at Tennessee?

Like, what about that told anybody that he would be coming out after this year?

So,

but

it was a perfect storm.

I mean, even talking to people in the circle, right?

Like, that weighs on a young man.

All of that attention.

He can't go to the convenience store and grab a bottle of water and a candy bar without like people like filming him and taking pictures.

So like you're thrust into all of that.

And by the way,

you may not be quite as talented as some people thought.

And your mechanics and the way you trust, it's not there yet.

So it's been, and Texas coming off the college football playoff.

They're talking like, oh, well, that was that was cute with Quinn Ewers last year.

But now we got our guy national championship in the state of Texas.

Like, I can't imagine more.

And by the back of his jersey, says Manning.

Well, how about first game, Ohio State on the road, 80,000?

Matt Patricia, right?

Yeah, in a place outside of Michigan, nobody goes and wins.

Like it's just, it couldn't have been

a harder setup for a young man to walk into.

All right, so you had Nussmeier fourth and

he brings a lot of stuff to the table that I personally like that I feel like at some point I'm going to translate that there's some leadership charisma stuff with him that I always overvalue when I just just kind of floated into college football.

And I'm like, oh, that guy seems like, but it's been disappointing for him, too.

So what's going on with him?

It has been so far.

Of all the guys who have struggled, I'm still hopeful with Nussmeier that he's going to kind of start to put it together.

He's got some new faces around him.

He's got four new offensive linemen.

As you know,

their best one was drafted by the Patriots.

Will Campbell.

So, by the way, I've enjoyed it.

I've enjoyed the Will Campbell.

He's a little bit of a bully.

That was a fun five-month

you and I going back and forth and just watching your whole mindset change on that.

Listen, I got, I didn't decided not to get freaked out by somebody's arms being a half inch shorter than they should be.

I'm going to think about a half inch or an inch and a half, but whatever it is.

I just decided not to freak out.

Anyway, I interrupted.

Yeah.

No, no, I Nussmeyer plays the game neck up better than any other quarterback in the country.

Okay.

What made Nussmeier so enticing and intriguing last year was his aggressive style,

but it came with, you know, the, it came with some of the mistakes and some of the

critical moments where he was trusting it too much or overly aggressive.

And so I've now seen him kind of overcorrect,

where it seems like

it's very clear.

LSU now has a defense.

They didn't have one last year.

LSU has a semblance of a run game, although not great, but they didn't have at all a running game.

They had one of the worst running games of a power five school and a power four school in all of college football last year.

So he has been trained by Brian Kelly and that staff that, hey, you don't have to carry this team like you did last year.

And so he's trying to play within the, like the construct of the, of the team.

And I think it's leading to a little bit more like hesitation and not as like John Matir.

I don't know if you've watched him at all from Oakland.

Let's talk about him because he seems like another one who's gaining steam.

he's a lunatic yeah and i know he's got the hand injury and so now it's a setback and he could be out three four weeks but i suspect he'll come back and it'll be right back at it i mean he's he's a different cat you talk about like the work ethic and and the competitiveness i remember there's this play against texas tech last year i'm watching washington state before he transferred texas tech fourth quarter up like 34 to 17 midway through the fourth quarter, pick up a first down.

Let's run out this clock.

Let's get out of here, right?

He picks up the first down and goes bolting towards this left sideline, gets tracked down, cuts.

And at that point, it's like, come on, John, just step out of bounds, right?

Yeah.

Cuts back inside, takes off.

He runs like a 4-5.

He looks like a fullback.

I met him in person.

I'm like, no, where's John?

Like this, like the Mannings, the Mannings brought in like a guy fullback to catch some outlets.

He's got these huge legs, but he cuts back in running like a 4-4-8, 4-5-0, and goes darting down towards the end zone.

Two defenders come converge on him, and I'm watching it, like sitting here in my office with my remote, and I'm like, just go down, just slide.

And he looks up these two defensive backs and starts stiff arming them, both of them.

And I was like, oh, this guy's built different.

He's just a competitive lunatic.

So who's the comparison to him?

Because that seems like an unusual NFL quarter.

I think he's a faster Baker Mayfield.

He's got a good arm, but Baker's got a stronger arm.

But he plays with that urgency and that excitement and that like, just like

there's no throw he's not, he's no throw that he's afraid to attempt.

Yeah.

So it does get him into trouble, a little bit like Nussmeyer a year ago, but he does so many things in terms of driving the ball down the field and showing up in clutch moments.

I like if he comes back and plays the way he was playing prior.

And he bet on himself.

It was like Flacco that year with the Super Bowl run.

Yeah.

Totally bet on himself.

He could have gone to Wisconsin.

He could have gone to like, he had all these different offers he looked at oklahoma and said i got to show that this style works in the sec and i got to prove it and by the way outside of maybe florida i don't know there's a team in the country that has a tougher schedule they play five ranked opponents to finish out the year and that's after texas and that's after um they've already played michigan and auburn so he bet on himself and so far he's he's shown it and if he comes back and plays at the same clip that he was playing i think mater is going to be a first round draft pick.

High first down, high first round, mid-first round, or a lower first round?

I could see more like a Jackson Dart range, you know, like mid-late.

You know, I think, I think there will be some intrigue.

He's not the tallest guy.

He does,

his mechanics are kind of all over the place, so he leaves four or five throws on the field.

The teams fall in love with the guy, they fall in love with the person, the guy

and what he can be if we drill in some of the footwork stuff and all that.

Like, yeah.

Tell me about Sellers and Mendoza because you had Sellers six and Mendoza 15 before the year.

Mendoza's had a little climb, right?

He has.

He's played really well.

Let's start with Sellers.

I think a lot like Dante Moore, but even more emphasis for me.

The same with Moore, Sellers, and Mendoza.

They can all be eligible.

They can all come back and be in that 2027 draft, okay?

Yeah.

Sellers is the furthest away development wise i've already said nussmeier is the the best in terms of neck up dante moore's the best pure passer in all of college football is that a rating for you neck up do you have like a i think it's gonna have to be from now on

i like my neck up rankings i don't know yes he's number one be he's number one neck up in the neck up board um

but but sellers is the most physically gifted of all of them He does things like athletically and then throws he makes that are just like very few people can do that but like we said some of the same stuff about anthony richardson right oh boy too soon i know i i know i know i'm but i i just i'm very hopeful that whether it's at south carolina or if he transfers somewhere whatever it is that sellers comes back for another year so he had the injury and kind of a setback for just a minute but um

this is such a weird sport by the way that You've done this now like three times just in the last 20 minutes where you're projecting like, you know, wherever he is, wherever he transfers next year, like this is just the sport we have now where we have no idea.

No, no, it's not, I'm just saying it's like, we have no idea where this guy's going to be next year because that's just, this is ring around the rosie now.

It's not

actually like anything.

It is.

And honestly, here's like, just take away like my love for college football and like the game and the sport and all of it.

Just as an NFL evaluator, what would Bo Nicks be without that transfer?

Oh, oh so you're pro i like this you're pro ring around morosi what would cam ward be if he didn't go from incarnate word to washington state to miami

what would you what would jaden daniels be if he stayed stayed at arizona state and came out early carson beck right now what about carson beck so like not it's not always the best fit and we can get to beck in a minute that was the right fit moving from georgia to to miami for some of these guys like go be in a in more of a pro-style system go get a new fresh set of coaching and put your eyes on something different.

Go develop in a second place.

Jaden Daniels was ready when he came in, man.

Bo Nix was ready, but the ceiling, like I had a second round grade on Bo.

I'm just not the biggest fan, but you can't tell me he wasn't ready, right?

All these guys are coming in with 50, 60 starts, you know?

Yeah.

And they're more ready.

And it goes back to the Parcells stuff from years ago.

You can tweak the numbers a little bit, but Parcells was on it.

Like, be a college graduate, be a starter for three years, have 20, have 30 starts,

have a bunch of wins.

So I just think it's important experience.

That's why I hate sitting here on your show, which is going to have more eyes and viewers, unfortunately, than mine.

But, like, but, but, seriously, like, and I'm saying Dante Moore's the best.

He's the number one.

Thank you.

I appreciate it.

And

we're loving it.

But, um,

but I, I, I, I hesitate, and and that's why I've been hesitant to come out and say this stuff.

But Moore is the best, and Sellers is the most gifted.

I love it.

Well, yeah, I trust you completely.

So when you go all in on somebody,

I just follow you.

You did it last year.

Yeah, I mean, you nailed the draft last year.

You're red hot right now.

We got to keep the momentum going, right?

We got to take a break, and then I want to finish this and talk about some NFL guys that I have a fun gimmick for.

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We didn't talk about Mendoza.

What are you seeing?

Indiana QB.

I'm seeing a guy that's found his home.

Again, he can come back for another year.

I don't know that he's going to, like, he completed all but two passes against Illinois, right?

He comes out and he kind of was like a little bit up and down.

They were, they were trying to be vanilla and not show what they were doing.

Frank Signetti, I know you love my guy, Mensch, Steve Mensch.

Like he is the great line of the

RCF, the resting Signetti face.

And that's who he is.

He's just kind of crusty, but he pops off.

But Signetti wouldn't let.

Mendoza go to the Manning Pass Academy this summer.

He wanted him there in the bubble, working the scheme.

It's RPO based.

It's all like quick decisions, fast eyes.

And so when you get done with 30 throws in a game, maybe only seven or eight are like NFL style throws that you can, you start to create a catalog on.

So he's going to have this high percentage and the numbers are going to look great.

But when you dig into him, he's 6'5, he's 225.

He's got mobility.

He's got a good arm.

He can be inconsistent.

And so I want to see as the season progresses and the schedule schedule gets harder.

But there's talent there.

And I've talked to some people in the league who are like, yeah, like I see more third round.

And I've talked to some people like, you know, if he had, if he puts it all together, he could be first round.

So to me, he's kind of like top 50 right now.

And it's a wait and see.

But I really liked him coming out of Cal last year.

And I was hopeful that he would get off to this kind of start.

And Carson Beck, like, what happens with this?

Like, what is the, give me the ceiling and give me the base.

I had to, I had to quit Carson Beck for a minute.

like cigarettes yeah like cigarettes i had to like put the box down and like and come back nicotine gum to get rid of them yes like nicorette whatever it was so

i just it was frustrating to watch him at georgia because it felt like every throw the weight of the world was on him right and he was overthinking and he was making his even on the completions making his receivers really work and nothing felt smooth he didn't look relaxed and playing free and easy and all that right and then the season ends and then it begs the question, right?

And I have sources and I talk to him.

It's like, Georgia's got money.

If Georgia really wants him back, and Gunner Stockton, their starter now who's played really well, like he's not setting the world on fire with physical tools.

But they were like, yeah, thanks for your service.

Go ahead.

You can transfer to Miami.

They didn't put up a fight.

And then it's like, all right, now he's got, he's buying Lamborghinis.

And then the Lamborghinis get stolen and he's dating a Cavender twin.

And then he's doing whatever he's doing to break.

And all the headlines, all the noise after a frustrating year last year, is just like, of course, you went down to Miami.

And of course, you're doing all this social media.

Like, stop.

So I quit him.

I gave myself a few months off of Beck.

But then, like, two weeks before the season starts, I started getting reports that, hey, now this, this guy, like, he's, he's at home.

Players love him.

He's there early in the morning, staying late.

He's part of this grind.

He's leading this grind.

And he loves this system.

He's decisive, getting the ball out.

He's kind of leaned up a little bit.

He's moving around better.

And I'm like, yeah, we'll see.

And then that first game against Notre Dame, I was like, it's everything they were saying is true.

He looks like he loves the game again.

He's playing light and free and easy.

So I've been really encouraged because you got to remember coming into last year, it was Beck as the number one prospect.

I think when Thamble did that, that first one for game day, when he pulled all the scouts, he had the most votes.

He was a top 10 pick.

And so the talent's there.

And now we're starting to see him play it at that kind of level again which is fun to watch it's almost like you just laid out a sports movie right

right like he like he just let everything go to his head and just lost his mind and um it's like an 80s 80s sports football movie where the where the guy has to like find himself but he found himself in miami which is weird yeah he just he found himself in an alley one morning and decided he's got to peel himself up and like bring himself back and yeah and it's it's the comeback story inspirational inspirational music for him yeah um

all right then do we need to talk about the baylor qb or the penn state qb or do you want to move to the nfl i like the baylor quarterback i think he's maybe like if he continues to play at this rate it's awesome to see the reason i love sawyer robertson so much is because i was at that manning passing academy i didn't know much about him He's a transfer in.

He's cousins with Jared Stidham.

Like he, it's like, he's got a cool backstory, baseball player, all that.

And then he comes out and we've got Sellers and Klubnik and Nussmeier and all these great quarterbacks that are out.

And

they're doing okay in these like drills.

It's like Friday night lights, you know?

It's like the purest thing left in football.

There's no cameras.

There's no television there.

There's no sponsorship.

It's just guys out throwing at night.

And, you know, a beautiful night in Thibodeau, Louisiana.

And this Robertson kid who's 6'4, 225, comes out and he nails it's like this competition, like all 12 throws or whatever it was.

And he just kind of walked back like nothing, nothing to see here.

And I was like, hmm, I got to pop in this guy's tape.

And then he comes out and it's like 400 yards each game.

And he's keeping this Baylor team in that's not very good in tough games.

So I'm excited for him as probably a backup quarterback and all that.

But Drew Aller to me is the most

confounding prospect.

I get like the, you know, the national list and Blesto list, all the scouts put together.

The NFL teams uses it as a resource and talk to scouts.

Everyone's got a first-round grade on him, it seems like, like high grades.

He's big.

He's competitive.

I like that.

He's strong.

He sees the field, all those things, but he's not mobile and he's slow with his feet.

He doesn't win big games and he's not accurate, Bill.

He like there's some kind of visualization thing with him.

Got receivers running away from him.

He just, he doesn't trust his throws.

And if you're not mobile and can't run around and you're not accurate, why are you a first-round prospect?

Yeah, I think you watched the game on Saturday night and text me.

And I want to get your opinion when you watch Dante Moore in his first level up competition.

And mind you, just nine starts going into Happy Valley white out.

But just watch him as a passer and then watch Drew Aller as a passer and let me know what you think.

Okay.

So neck up scale, Nussmeier still winning.

Yep, he is, but his tools aren't elite.

Like, I see it.

He doesn't have the great arm and it doesn't have great size and all that stuff, but neck up, he's a winner.

Who's the neck up scale all-time winner?

Zabrady?

And well, I mean, we didn't know that coming out.

Oh, true.

So it has to be college only.

So, if anyone you've ever evaluated, who wins

Andrew Luck.

Andrew Luck.

Andrew Luck.

Yes.

Smart enough to retire.

That was like he was neck up to the end.

Yeah.

Too smart.

Why am I doing this?

Too smart for the Colts.

I've made enough money.

I'm done.

All right.

NFL QBs.

So Sal said something on the Ringer Gambling Show on Wednesday that I really liked about these quarterbacks.

He's a trip, man.

He's always.

He's a trip.

He had his cut the shit QBs where these QBs where you're just like,

cut the shit.

Are you good or not?

Like, can you just tell us one way or the other?

And Trevor Lawrence is obviously the number one of that.

Of course.

A lot of drops for him this year.

A lot of stuff that wasn't his fault.

I still don't, I bet on them twice and probably going back for thirds this week.

Inside the 10, I just, your guard's up.

You're waiting for something stupid to happen.

Every once in a while, he'll just miss a guy completely.

You're like, what just happened there?

And then all of a sudden, he'll run like a gazelle.

He'll nail somebody in stride.

And it would be fine if it was year two, but it's not.

So

year four or year five now?

It's year five.

I think it's year five.

It's year four or year five.

I think it's year five.

Um, so where are we, Trevor Lawrence?

I don't know.

Okay.

I know he's not what we thought he was coming out.

Okay.

So you've given up on that version.

And when you go through different coordinators, and obviously the Urban Meyer thing was a disaster.

And so there was some recovery.

And we saw some glimpses and some flashes.

And you thought he's going to be okay with Doug Peterson.

And then that.

This is year five, by the way.

Year five.

Okay.

And I like Liam Cohen.

Like, I think, I think he's going to get the most of them.

I think he's a, I think at his best,

he's a good quarterback who you can't trust to be consistent enough and that you're going to have to be great around them.

Even though usually that guy's like the game manager, he's just going to make some mistakes and miss some throws that you wouldn't expect.

And he's going to create some plays and do some things.

But I can't envision, here's what I try to do sometimes with these guys.

Envision a world with the quarterbacks that are in that league

where they go head to head and it's some kind of shootout and the game's on the line the fourth quarter where he out duels

Mahomes or Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts even, if they can get that off.

And Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, when he's healthy.

Like, I just don't envision that world.

So maybe he gets him to a 9-10 win season playing really well if he goes on a run.

But like now we're in the playoffs and I'm looking at a matchup between him and Burrow or him and Mahomes, him and even Herbert, who doesn't win the playoffs yet.

So like, I don't know.

It's just, it's, it's hard to imagine he's ever going to take that next step.

Well, it seemed like he was in a good spot with Brian Thomas, and then they get Hunter.

You're like, we're like, I have no weapons.

Thomas has been a mess this season.

I don't know what's going on with that dude.

Yeah, he's believe me, I've done a lot of research on it because he's on all of my fantasy teams, basically.

So, and it is one of those things where the Jaguar fans are mad.

It's a whole thing.

And then Hunter, who they thought was going to be, you know, early 90s Dion,

it just has not been the case early.

And that might have been too ambitious to begin with, but they gave up a lot.

Like, Mason Graham's doing really well for

traded out of that.

And now they get two firsts next year.

Yes.

Yes.

You could have just stayed at six and taken or set, I think it was, it was five.

But they were good.

Like Tyler Warren was on there, who ends up falling all the way to 14.

Jason Graham was the easy pick.

They're two good tackles, like Membo, who I think is the Jets.

Banks, I think, has been good with the Saints.

There was a lot of good shit going on, and they trade everything to move up for Hunter, who doesn't seem like he has it yet.

So anyway,

that might have been Lawrence's chance to have the right supporting cast.

I'm not sure he has it.

Yeah.

That'd be the only defense I could think of for him.

Yeah, it's just like

there's too many excuses I feel like we've made.

I'm right on the ledge and I just keep I keep wanting to walk it back, but I don't know that I'm going to get to a point where I don't want to just jump off the Lawrence ledge.

No excuses for me.

I'm long out.

I've been out for I've been out since last season.

How do we explain CJ Stroud?

I'm shocked by that.

I mean, the offensive line is probably how we explain it.

It's a dumpster fire.

It's a top four worst offensive line in either country.

It's horrible.

So it's hard when you have a quarterback who lives in the pocket and needs not a lot of time, but needs enough time.

It's frustrating to watch because we all saw the ability.

It didn't take some like super scout to figure out how talented he was.

But it's hard to watch because you know it's there.

And I really like Ryan, D'Amico Ryan's.

I really like that organization.

I think that, but like they can't get the offense.

And they, in the offseason, they just shipped off that offensive line, like not good enough.

Let's start over.

Like, get, if you're in the O-line room, like, basically, get out of here.

And so, but now it's like not any better,

you know.

And so, that I have to, I have to believe that that's leading to a lot of the problems.

Um, I know he misses Tank Dell a lot.

You go back, I did some, I don't have the research in front of me, but if you go back, like whether it was Jackson Smith and Jigba, who had like equal or better production than the star first-round wide receivers, Olave and Garrett,

whether it was,

who who was it?

Oh,

was it

Mecca Mbuka?

It might have been who is just as productive or more productive than Marvin Harrison Jr.

Like he's a he's a slot receiver guy.

And so I think missing that kind of like

type of guy at the slot hurts him a little bit.

But I really do think it's the offensive line is at the crux of this.

We don't need to talk about Kyler Murray as a cut the shit guy because he's playing after we do this, but I gave up on him two years ago.

Um,

the on the flip side of a non-cut the shit guy, Herbert, who I've been uh

probably more dubious of than because I it always bothered me that the nerds were always so excited about him and always like basically rating him by his potential instead of the results, which I've talked about a million times.

I think he's been incredible this year.

Does he seem any different to you, or is the situation different, or what,

where is he right now in your eyes?

he seems different okay that's that's how i feel he actually does and and if if i go back to that draft what was that was that the burrow tua it was tua yeah it was versus tua and and and for me it was jordan love

i remember fighting with kuiper i'm like

he herber's the most talented i'll give you that but i also sat in a meeting at oregon with christoball there And it was like the protection they had for him.

I think it was me and McDonough.

And

I've got to remember, it was either me, McDonough, and

Spielman, Chris Spielman, or it might have been Levy and Greasy.

I can't remember.

But we sat in this meeting and all of a sudden, like Justin Herbert's a star and they're undefeated, I think at that time.

And we're there to like, it's a showcase game.

And we're like the number two crew.

And there was a big SEC game, you know, that Herbie and Fowler had.

And so we get this game and Oregon's kind of rolling.

And he comes in and like, he kind of lets the offensive lineman talk for him.

He sits in the back of the room.

Yeah.

And I've been doing that for like eight, nine years at that point.

And like the quarterback comes in and he goes, you know, and you get to know him.

And it always concerned me because it was kind of that, like, so much talent.

And then you blame Christoball and like they were run first.

And then he gets to the NFL.

And it's like, I just don't know if he's got that, like, you know, that like, but like Brady's an all-time prick.

So is Peyton Manning.

So like

all these guys, like you hear some of the real stories behind the scenes, it's not about the commercials and the front.

Yeah.

Like, they're like, they're brutal to be around.

And I didn't, I just wondered if Herbert would ever be like that.

And now I'm starting to see a little bit of prick in him.

And it's good.

And

I think Harbaugh has empowered him.

And I think Harbaugh, it's not necessarily the mechanics, the footwork, the scheme.

For him, it's the way he, like the confidence that you can't help have, but have when you walk out of a room.

and and and Harbaugh is crazy like I have so many stories but like but when you're in that foxhole with him you'll go to war and so I wonder if he like if they he infected Herbert in a good way with something

yeah yeah absolutely I'm seeing a different guy and the way he's carrying himself on off the field all of it so I'm hopeful hopeful for him but I still like Jordan Love a little bit more coming out we'll see if how that all plays out yeah so but now who would you rather have Herbert or Jordan Love

early this season herbert and it takes a lot for me to say that up coming into this season i was like it took it took a few years and i'm not i'm not fighting with uh kuiper anymore but i wanted to jump into the screen and be like hey mel what's up now you know

well you had the neck up scale i remember It was my podcast that Trent Dopfer came on like 15 years ago and told the Mark Sanchez story.

I forget what draft for all the QBs in that draft.

And he was like, if you were going somewhere and you had your car keys on you and somebody was going to drive, you toss them to Sanchez.

And that was his way of doing it.

That was Stafford's year.

Was it Stafford's year?

Okay.

Yes.

Yeah.

So he made the case like Sanchez is a car keys guy.

And I was always like, that's like a different scale, I think.

The car keys.

So you're saying Herbert was low in the car keys.

Yeah.

Like you, in Oregon, you wouldn't have been in the city.

He was sitting in the third row of like the Lincoln Navigator.

You know, like he was, he was going to sit back there, but super talented, you know, always.

Yeah.

I got to say, I bet against them in week one and week three, and

he just was

just breaking hearts if you had the other side.

But it got to the point, especially in the Denver game, where I started to feel like he was going to come back and make

plays.

That play he made, Denver was killing him that whole game.

I mean, I think they had 29 pressures.

Yeah, they were all over him.

That last touchdown he had was just an amazing play.

I thought that was probably the best play of the season.

And I've never questioned his toughness.

He takes hits and keeps coming back.

You know, the other one we should talk about, who I guess isn't a cut the shit guy anymore because he's had real playoff success.

But

I thought Goff was so good on Monday night.

I don't know how bad Baltimore's defense is, but even that.

Backbreaker throw he had to St.

Brown on fourth and two, it was fucking perfect.

And he just, he was playing with so much confidence.

I was really impressed.

And I love seeing him do it without Ben Johnson because I think a lot of people, and myself included, question like,

how much is this kind of manufactured?

It fits perfectly.

He's a play action guy, the run sets, all those things.

And to see him doing it now, and then they, you know, the first, it was the first game, right, where they came out and they struggled.

They looked awful.

Yeah, and then Green Bay.

Green Bay, yes.

And then to see, like, yeah, that was just a, that was a blip.

Like, we're, we're, we're back to what we are.

Yeah.

I, like, I really liked him in that draft and I had him as the first, first quarterback, and, but I always kind of thought the ceiling was lower with him.

And to see where he is in, and then when a guy like McVay, who I think we all have a ton of respect for, kind of just discards him after having success and going to the Super Bowl, it's like something's up here, you know?

Yeah.

And so to see him make that move and to pick himself up and to have the success he's had, I just poll for Goff and I'm excited that he's doing what he's doing.

But he is significantly better now than he was as a prospect coming out and he was in his early year or two.

Yeah, it's funny.

I fell prey to

their offensive line, isn't the same.

You can't lose coordinators like that.

When I was thinking about them as a playoff team, how good were they going to be?

Completely missed it.

I'm usually good at this specific stupid thing.

It's a very stupid.

This is usually my domain.

It's my stupid niche.

But like, I totally miss

them getting pissed off that everybody's like, yeah, with Ben Johnson out, your offense isn't going to be good anymore.

I think that's like a real fuel for them.

I think they really took it personally in the offseason.

And Dan Campbell specifically, who that should have been easy to guess, but

you could see it in Monday night with the way they played, how they finished the game, the stuff they said after.

I just think they were like, fuck this.

Like it's, yeah, Ben Johnson was a good coordinator, but we're really good.

It wasn't about our offensive coordinator.

Fuck off.

Yeah.

And that's like a passion project for all of them.

Yeah.

For Campbell, like Campbell getting involved in it.

Like, it's, it's pretty wild to see.

Yeah, because they take after him and his mentality as great as the play calls were.

But, like, some of those, the fourth and two was like not an easy call there at midfield with

a minute 50 left.

You knew they were going to go for it, but it wasn't like a no-brainer.

No,

he's wild.

He's crazy, but like it works the vast majority of the time.

And he, he trusts his group and his, his group trusts him.

It's pretty cool to watch.

Like he's, I don't know how many other guys in the NFL you would, if you were to kind of draft head coaches

with an organization, like he'd be on the very short list, I think, truly.

He's, so I always rank when I do my little putter rankings, I rank the coaches and I downgraded them this year because they lost their, I had them above average, but not like top 10.

Oh, I was worried.

i was legitimately worried but i think he's this is a a big no no no no no i'm i'm really good and and i and i know i'm getting trust infrastructure when kelvin shepherd now

like i saw when i was i was like oh he's a coordinator like he wasn't in my first two or three years of of of um evaluating players he was like year seven or eight and i'm like no he's he's a quarter he's been in the league how many years coaching like it's uh yeah it's it's wild to see but it but it's pretty cool to see too a guy who you saw as like a 19, 20-year-old kid, you know, trying to make to the NFL.

And now, where he is, like, it's, it's just, it's wild.

Yeah.

That is one of the stages of getting older.

Cause one of the first eye-opening things is when somebody's son is playing like in baseball and you're like, oh my God, Fernando Tatis Jr.

What?

Right, right.

But when it's a grandchild, that's when you're like,

just put me out.

I'm done.

Put me in a fucking home.

Yeah.

I know.

I'm worried that that hasn't happened yet that I'm aware of, but

I'm I'm worried about that.

What do you think about Jackson Dart?

I want to get your opinion.

As you know, I eat up all the

offfield,

how the team feels like he leads in the locker room and him in the meetings and hard worker.

He checks all those boxes, got the charisma.

I thought they should have gone to him last week.

I thought that was the perfect game.

But I know Wilson had a big game against Colin.

I'm coming off of that.

I get it, but he, but when Wilson sucked in the first part of that game, I just like they brought Dart in.

I was like, I wonder if they'll just keep him out there.

And it was like, they didn't have the balls to do it.

This is the right time, though, because they have an easy game next week.

So Chargers will be hard.

We set the over-under before the season started at week six.

So it went under.

Interesting.

I had a fascinating conversation and one has nothing to do with the other here.

I had zero to do with Jackson Dart, Giants, dayball, all that.

But I'll never forget, I'm in Mobile, Alabama.

It's the first day.

Practice hasn't even started yet.

And

Mench and I are doing some interviews before with some general managers.

And Dayball comes in and grabs me and is like, hey, I'm just getting caught up on the quarterbacks.

You know, the season just ended and coaches then get involved in the process.

He's like, what do you talk me through?

And this is like a three, four-minute conversation.

He's like, who do you like?

I've never told this full story before.

Oh, great.

Who do you like?

What do you think?

And I'm like, and I went through, I was like, you know,

I don't know that Shador is the right fit for you.

I,

you know, Cam Ward's probably going to be the first quarterback taken.

I said, if I'm being honest, the guy I want to see with you and I want you to have a chance to develop is Jackson Dart.

And this is Jackson Dart was kind of considered like a second rounder coming in that week of this senior bowl.

I was like, I was like, you're picking at five.

I'm like, so I like, it's not going to be at five, but like, and I don't, maybe he's there in this early second.

I was like, maybe you guys have to move up for him.

It was like, just totally, just spitballing, right?

And he hadn't gotten, he just came off the East West Shrine game and Shador was there, but Shador didn't play.

And so he's like, all right.

He's like, good to know.

And he just walked away.

And then like, we went through this whole process.

And then it was like Jackson, yeah, they might like Jackson Dart a little.

So it was cool to see that he thought the same thing of Dart.

And I'll never forget watching Dart's like, it's 161 clip reel where like the PFF ultimate, where you marry it to our tape our game tape yeah and you can break it up anyway throws from 10 to 20 yards and whatever you want it's a versus pressure clip reel that i watch for all these top top quarterbacks every year i do it and the 161 plays for him is when i fell in love

and listen he does not have a big time arm and i think that's the thing that was kind of lost and all like he can't drive it down the field like josh allen like mahomes like some of those guys it's it's adequate but he's got to be on time but watching him in the pocket,

as I'm watching Shador and Cam Ward and they're bailing and drifting and like extending and kind of lackadaising.

And then I watch Dart every play is like urgency, climbing the pocket, sliding over, throwing down the field.

And you know how, like, Josh Allen, when you watch him, it's almost like the chaos calms him down.

Yeah.

That's how I felt.

So I'm like, he's not as tall as

Josh Allen.

He's not as mobile.

He certainly doesn't have the arm.

And I'm hesitant to say it at the time, but I was like, screw it.

He reminds me so much of Josh Allen.

Not the physical traits, but the way he carries himself, the way he is with pressure around him.

And so I'm excited.

Like, I know the team isn't very good.

I know they're playing the Chargers week one, and maybe they can bounce back against the Saints

with Dart in his second start.

But I'm excited to see what happens here because I think this is a marriage that is perfect for both of them.

You know what's funny?

The Giants might not be that bad.

Because that Chiefs game, I was thinking, thinking i i wish i had talked about it more on sunday that that the that defensive touchdown that they should have had where the guy mahomes stripped the guy back

but yeah remember that background yeah yep yep yep i do wonder what happens if that happened if they get that play and they score combined with wilson just you know completely in the bed he was just awful but that they do have a pass rush They do have a pass.

Neighbors is a problem.

Yeah.

And their receivers as a whole are not like they're, they're better than than what we've seen.

And Scataboo, you know, I don't know.

I kind of like him.

I wish the pass.

He's a maniac, man.

I like him too.

I don't know.

I can see in the Chargers 3-0, Smoke blown up, Herbert MVP.

They're six and a half point favorites on the road.

Everyone's going to have them in a tease.

Like, to me,

it is an all-time stayaway.

I would not bet on either team in this game.

And who knows with Dart?

The crowd will be into it right away when it happens.

All right, we got to do it.

Actually, one more more thing quick.

I had a, I said before the year, I thought Allen was the best QB in the league and people got mad at me.

Why did they get mad at you?

Because of the Mahomes.

Oh, yeah.

And I was like, I'm sorry.

The hard quarterback

is Allen is the best quarterback in football and he was last year.

And I don't know why

just because Mahomes has the three titles and

he's still like, if I have a fourth quarter, he's still probably the guy if my life depended, I would probably take.

But Josh Allen, week to week for a season right now, the player he is, I don't see how you, you could say he's not one A and Lamar is one B, but I would have him over Lamar.

Do you

go, I actually would, and I'd like to disagree with you.

It would be more fun.

I always try to, you know, kind of like before, I try to ask myself, who do you want to face the least?

Like, who's the biggest problem?

And it was Mahom for the, Mahomes for the longest time.

And I'm not like, he'd be second on my list.

But if you're asking, like, who's the guy that creates the most problems for me if I'm a defensive coordinator, if I'm an opposing team?

It's Alan.

It's the physicality, it's the mobility, it's the driving the ball down the field, the amount of field you have to cover.

And look at, like, we all talk about the Chiefs and their lack of weapons and all that, but like, are the Bills that much better?

I mean, Curtis Samuel was a healthy scratch last week.

You know, like, yeah.

I don't know.

I think James Cook is really good.

He's certainly better than anyone on the Chiefs, but from a receiver standpoint.

Receivers, I mean, yes.

Yeah.

And

I just think he's the hardest one to play, to back up your point.

Like, if it's third and five on the five-yard line,

you have to be like, he's probably going to do a QB draw and we probably can't stop it.

We're going to have to keep more people in.

And now he's got sides open.

Yeah, but maybe he won't.

Maybe he'll wait.

Maybe he'll roll around.

I just think he's hard to play.

And then the other piece of that is if you switched him with other people's situations, what would happen to that team?

If you put him on Kansas City right now, I feel like he'd figure it out at least as good as Mahomes has tried to figure it out these last years.

But I don't think

to me, Mahomes could absolutely take it back.

Worthy's coming back this week.

Rice comes back, I think, week seven.

Yeah.

And there's a world where all of a sudden the Chiefs are fun and explosive.

But the reality is they haven't been fun and explosive in two years.

Yeah, for more than two years now.

Two plus years.

Like that, I don't know.

Okay, let's talk Drake May.

Let's go.

We'll end with the Pats.

We'll end with our guy, Drake.

I thought the Pats played really well last week, except for the five turnovers.

26 first downs.

They were in all the right spots.

They dominated the game.

I think they had a, like, it was like 349 to 101 yards the last three quarters.

I have no idea how they lost the game.

It was one of the stupidest losses in recent Patriots' history, but I

ball security, right?

Yeah, Drake does one dumb play a half, right?

He does.

And so, so, like,

you look at his passing efficiency.

He's, he's actually further along than I thought he would be as a passer.

Yeah.

Like, just, I,

I even remember going to like that Jets game live last year and watching before he got the head injury.

And it's like, man, he like the way he's carrying himself and the, the mobility aspect, like he's going to be just fine.

I really like this is better than I thought in his rookie year.

Um,

and then he's, he has making he has made a jump, and they don't have great supporting cast around him, but it's good enough.

And you're seeing that, like, he's going to keep getting.

I think they're going to wind up being the most improved team in the National Football League from what we saw week one against the Raiders to what we see in like weeks 10 through 17.

I really agree with you, and I don't know if I'm being a homer, but I like genuinely believe this team has the pieces to be a good team as the year goes along.

Yeah, a good team.

Like

they sneak in the nine and eight.

Yeah.

Yeah, in the hunt at the end, but maybe they don't make it.

Maybe they make it and they get knocked out.

But I think this year is critical for May to continue kind of on this trajectory and start cutting out the maybe five, six plays a game that he'd like to have back.

Maybe cut that down to one or two.

Yeah.

And like you said, one turnover had like, but like start chipping away at that a little bit because the good is really good and their defense is

significantly better than a year ago.

And

I like this team, but I know what it is, but it's huge.

This first year with Vrabel is huge that they that they progress.

And then next year, I think they become with another offseason and with the draft and with a couple moves in free, like I think they could then be be serious and someone you have to deal with.

Yeah, the being one and two after three is tough because I don't think the Raiders are very good, but the Pats just gave up a bunch of big plays.

Gonzalez comes back this week, which I think people have underrated how important he is.

What did I read?

I didn't actually watch, like Breer's, Albert Breer said something like, there wasn't a hamstring or what's the, what's the

yeah, there was something, look that up.

There was something about where he was.

He was beyond a hamstring or insinuating something

i don't know i thought yeah so do some find that we'll have to both find that out after that albert breer always start in trouble jesus but he's good man

uh the uh i think i could see so we're aligned i could see like around week 10 week 11.

i also think this team is gonna have an upset over somebody at some point over the next four or five weeks

Because I do think they can rush a passer.

They can move the ball.

Some of the offensive stats stats are pretty good, like some of the advanced stats, you know, that don't really count to multiple turnovers per game.

Well, that's the thing.

Like when you take away those,

that handful of plays every game, he's actually been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the National Football League this year, which is wild.

I just think once a game, he's going to have a play where he's under siege and he tries to be a hero.

And something like that.

Josh Allen did won a lot of players.

Josh Allen did that forever.

Forever.

Until last year.

Yeah.

Truly, until last year.

Last year was the first year where he actually were like, oh,

he's protecting the football.

He's not making those mistakes.

So it might be three, four years down the road before he completely turns the corner.

The frustrating one was having Booty in the corner and just not doing the little alleyo blob pass to him.

And it's an easy touchdown.

Instead, he's trying to fire it through somebody and it gets tipped.

That's like three years from now.

He's laughing that over.

I think, I hope people understand.

He is a pup.

Like he has not played a ton of ball.

You compare his starts come out of North Carolina and that system he was in to like what Jaden Daniels had and what some of the other these other guys have had.

Bo Nick certainly.

He's learning on the job, which considering the results, pretty good, you know?

Well, tell the freaking Boston media that.

Yeah, I mean,

I don't know.

It would be reprehensible.

I was there last week.

I mean, that.

Everyone just got so

yes.

And it's always been.

And if it wasn't the Patriots, it was the Red Sox during our childhood.

I mean, they just, they'll run people out of town if they're not careful.

That's, that's the problem with people around here.

Like Roman Anthony right away.

Roman Anthony was immediately the best part of the Red Sox.

Why isn't that Drake May?

Everyone should be.

Drake May.

Everyone's making excuses for them.

They'll probably play this on one of the shows.

Listen to these two shitheads making excuses for Drake Mang.

No,

it's like a whole segment on it.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Drake May's good.

Anyway.

All right, McShay.

So every Saturday, you do a live YouTube show with Mensch for your podcast.

Outside of like doing the draft nationally, like at the site, like it might be my, like the

most fun, my favorite project I've ever done is the Saturday night show.

And it kind of, we just kind of stumbled upon it.

So you're coming on.

We break into the late in the games.

The Georgia game is going to be the one

and Penn State, Penn State, Oregon.

So we'll break in with like five, seven minutes left, and we'll just react.

I'm looking at the big screen over here, and it's just a mess.

And then we'll reset and we'll do a recap of the whole day.

And this week, we've got like nine, ten games we got to recap.

But we'll probably be on two in the morning this week.

So it'll be fun.

Eastern time.

All right.

We love having you.

It's great to see you.

It's been great, man.

I love it here, and I'm excited about what we're doing.

All right.

Thanks, man.

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All right, we're going to talk NFL and Ryder Cup with our guy, Joe House.

Ringer 107, we're 5-10 through three weeks.

It's a bad start.

I'm not scared.

I'm not rattled.

This is the first week I've actually liked this week for.

Listen, it lit a fire under me.

I got to be honest.

I feel a little like the Atlanta Falcons after that Panthers 30 to nothing shut out.

We've had bad luck.

Our worst pick, actually, ironically, was the Falcons, which we had in a parlay, and they lost 30 to nothing to the worst team in the League Carolina, who we're about to talk about.

But House,

am I right to say week four looks delightful, looks enticing?

It's the first time I feel like, oh, okay, I feel like I have a handle.

I like some of the matchups.

Let's go.

Yeah, it does set up with

some semblance of normalcy, I guess I'll say, because I think we've gotten the overreaction out of our system now.

And the underreactions.

But both of those, the overs and the and the unders.

I mean,

the Falcons fired their wide receiver coach, and they're working on better communication with Michael Pennix.

What are you and I going to do?

Don't fire me.

Who can we fire?

They also moved their OC

from

the booth down to the field, which is another one.

Sometimes it's a move in the deck chairs in the Titanic situation, but even if you look at the stats from that game it's kind of hard that did not seem like a 30 to nothing game if you just examine all of what happened and i and carolina is going to come up later because i still think they stink and i'm willing to make our money back here are the stayaways for this week i want to zoom through this a little bit because we got a lot of rider cup to talk to rider cup on the east coast great uh i have a lot of thoughts stayaways rams colts um

I'm staying away unless you like it.

I don't know what to make of this Colts team.

They feel like the Rabbit team this year.

It's Rams three and a half at home.

I don't like the line.

If I had to, if it was Rams two and a half, I'd be intrigued.

Three and a half.

I'm hungry.

Sure.

It's a fair number.

We

are going to, I think, transact on

another team involved in next week's Thursday night game, which is to me the most compelling reason to stay away from this Rams-Colts game.

The Rams go from this game to Thursday night hosting the San Francisco 49ers.

short work week for both the rams and the 49ers and that's a crucial matchup for those teams so i like the idea of staying away i think it's a fair number three and a half seems fine with me good good test for the colts this is a good referendum on who these colts are house remember when we took the niners and ringer 107 minus two and a half

and then mac jones they were driving and it seemed like we had it one and a half minus one it was minus one and a half and then mac jones threw a terrible pick, and then they scored, and then he took a safety in the end zone.

They were down two.

And then Mac Jones then drove them down so they could win by one, and we didn't win.

We'll have a chance to talk about the Niners in context, but they have still abominable special teams.

That safety by Mac Jones was a special teams

safety because the dumbass punt return guy field of the punt at the goddamn two-yard line.

It's like a 65-yard punt.

He's like, let me get field position right here.

Just get out of the way.

Just let the ball bounce in the end zone, dopey.

Next day away is Bill Saints, which is it's over two touchdowns.

It'll probably land, who knows, somewhere in the 16 to 17 range.

The Saints offense is just decent enough

that there's backdoor stuff.

Like you look at the advanced stats, like they're not.

reprehensible.

They can move the ball.

If it's like 31 to 10, they could get one land.

If you had come in on fire for the Saints, I would have gone along with it.

I don't hate this spot for them.

I'm not going to bet on them, but I don't hate the spot.

Dolphins, Jets, a complete stayaway.

There's a mild case for the Jets just because they really could be two and one.

But there's also a mild case for the Dolphins because they're 0-3.

And if they're ever going to win a game, this would be it.

And they showed some fight and they're on 10 days' rest.

I don't want to find out.

Justin Fields first Tua, it's a no thanks across the board.

That's fine.

That's a fine Monday night game.

Just sit back and enjoy.

Don't have anything on it.

And then last but not least,

the Broncos laying seven and a half to Cincinnati.

Yeah.

And

Bonix has just been awful.

He's cost us money.

He's made me scared for my futures.

PFF ranked him, I think, the 35th out of 36 quarterbacks who have played football this year.

Not good.

I really want to put them in a parlay or talk you into some sort of tease on sunday and i'm just i can't until we see bonics have three hours that look half decent yeah so we're going to stay away from that i have put the broncos in a tease um but no way i'm laying seven and a half that's a preposterous number even though the bengals really bangled the hell out of that vikings game i mean they just bangled that game A guy in the Vikings scored two touchdowns who wasn't on offense.

True story.

He did that.

He made touchdowns.

If you had him in fantasy, it would have been like a huge day.

All right.

Two games that I think are stayaways,

but I'll let you, if you got super excited about it, I'm willing to have the combo.

Eagles minus three and a half over the Bucs.

It's in Tampa.

No Mike Evans for Tampa.

It's time for his annual hamstring injury.

Yeah.

It's like

we have

Halloween on October 31st.

We have Thanksgiving.

We have Mike Evans with a hamstring.

No No Godwin, probably.

Worfs might play.

I just,

I just want to stay away unless there's something you'd like here.

No, if the Tampa Bay Buccaneers had better health in any of those areas, I mean, Baker continues to be banged up.

And, you know, always halfway through each game, we see him with a limp.

If they had...

just a tiny bit better health luck, I would be all over the Bucs.

They have been tremendous in this spot against the Eagles year over year.

Ask any Eagles fan.

Tampa plays them super tough.

They always, for whatever reason, because of the way the schedules turn out and the way that Tampa and the Eagles have fared well in their division.

That's right.

It's a stayaway.

I agree with you.

You know, I was doing a bunch of homework trying to get our mojo back this week, and I was giving, I was assigning teams records, not win-loss records, but

actual win, actual loss, and then just the number next to it, which meant it's an either-or game.

Sure, Tampa's actual record is zero, zero, and three.

Sure, they don't have a convincing win yet.

There is

some stat out there, um, like the first team in modern history to win, you know, on the last drive or second to last drive, some some crazy number like that.

And Philly, Philly is two on one.

All right, we're staying away from that, and

I don't want to stay away from Chiefs-Ravens.

I don't want to bet on it,

but I also don't want to bet on it.

Chiefs plus two and a half at home against the Ravens.

What's your lean on that?

I'm interested in your lean.

My lean is the Chiefs.

They're begging you to take the Chiefs.

I think that Ravens run defense

is just going to be bad for the whole year.

So you're right, but who the hell runs the football for the Kansas City Chiefs, right?

And then from an explosive play standpoint, it just feels like Baltimore can at least put up points against anybody, and they're going to be in that 25 to 30 range just because that seems to be what they do.

And then can the Chiefs get there?

And it just, Casey is just mediocre in every single offensive category.

Like, give me anything.

Give me yards per play.

But what's weird is I think they still have the eighth-ranked offense by EPA, and then every other stat is in the middle.

Baltimore's defense, 30th rush, 31st pass, 25th yards per pass, 30th first down.

They're both one and two.

Obviously, one of these teams are going to be one and three.

My lean is the Chiefs, and I feel like on Sunday, I'm going to talk myself into a tease with them getting eight and a half is where this is going to land.

I actually kind of like that.

That's not, I mean, let's compare notes on Sunday.

The thing with the Ravens defense is they cannot put pressure on anybody because the injuries to Van Noy and Matabuke up the middle.

And we saw that.

We saw Jared Goff just enjoying the comfort and peace of a quiet pocket, and he absolutely picked that Ravens defense apart.

I think ultimately that ravens defense will be fine and we kind of went through a version of this um last year if if they can get the restored health but uh i think at this stage of the season it makes sense to stay away let's just enjoy the game

one thing i was thinking with that

so

the ravens off ravens defense died in that bills game in the second half right

And it died in the second half of that Lions game.

And I was wondering if there was a cousin South special

maybe looming.

Well, the problem is the Lions won the first half and won our, was it tied or did they were up at the

Ravens take a lead and then the Chiefs come back.

So Ravens would first have Chiefs second half.

It fits every sort of character of these two teams, the identity of these two teams over the years.

Like the Ravens are historically great in the first half of

games.

And the Chiefs have been a second half dynamo, just like, you know, that's the Patrick Patrick Mahomes story.

So if you want to do that, I'm not against it.

One angle I like about this house, if you're going to take the Chiefs, is the Ravens could go one and three.

And then immediately Texans home, Rams home, bye week, Bears home, at Dolphins, at Vikings, at Browns, home Jets, home Bengals, home Steelers, at Bengals, Pats, at Green Bay, week 17.

Like they might, this might be the last game they lose for three months.

And we've seen them do this.

We've seen them do this.

Eight and five last year, and then they didn't lose any more games.

Just finished out the season with a with a nice run slightly in chiefs i also wonder the giants might be a little better than maybe we think and maybe that's why the chiefs even though it was a little ugly last year they still did win 22 to nine but

me i i just feel like after this game we're gonna be like oh okay and we'll know a little more uh i'm leaning chiefs you know that that that baltimore to win the first half kansas city to win the game what is it plus 850.

oh it would be worth a couple, couple, couple dollars.

It might for like might do a sprinkling.

Okay.

The possibles.

Packers at Dallas,

minus six and a half.

The money line could go in any parlay we want to do.

Green Bay's a little banged up.

Detroit's defense

might be the worst defense in the league.

I'm sorry, Dallas's defense.

It's in the running for worst defense.

And then Green Bay's offensive stats, even after that weird Browns game when they went against that Juggernaut, they're still seventh pass, third run, second yards per play.

And it just feels like they're going to light them up, the Parsons thing.

And yet, something scares me about this straight up.

So we'll have to talk parlay in it.

No CeeDee Lamb.

Dallas looked dead after CeeDee Lamb.

Like it just seemed like they had no chance whatsoever.

There's no case for Dallas, in my opinion, but I didn't like how the Packers looked last week either.

That's the only thing

that is worrisome is that there's no case for Dallas.

And I can't imagine anybody out there betting on Dallas.

When we sit down and wake up, I mean, when we wake up Sunday morning, the splits are going to be like 85% of the tickets

on the Packers.

And this number has just held tight at six and a half, like no movement at all.

It's six and a half.

So,

I mean,

Everyone got excited about Caleb last week, and rightfully so.

He made some good throws.

But then if you watch the highlights, these guys are wide open.

They're open by like five, six, seven yards every pass.

He had hours to throw.

And he had hours to throw.

That is by far the most comfortable he's been as a professional in terms of, you know, going dropping back.

Okay.

Starting to get a little more serious here.

Texans, Titans, Texans minus seven and a half.

Only as a parlay here.

Yeah.

It's a kitchen sink game for them.

They're 0-3.

Season might be over anyway, but in the AFC South, who knows?

And they're playing this Tennessee team.

Pick a stat on offense.

They're 32nd.

Like, just name a stat.

I'll be like, oh, no, actually, they're only 30th in that one.

They stink.

And the Callahan Tirefires, which you nicknamed them Dumbo two weeks ago,

it could be the last one for him.

Houston's defense is

probably at least a top 10 defense.

Gave up 14 to the Rams, 20 to the Bucs, 19 to the Jacks.

They're good.

It's a good defense.

There's nothing wrong with the Houston defense.

This is how many points are they going to score a game for Tennessee.

Yeah, so I don't want to mess with the number.

Let's just take the Texans on the marline and put them in a parlay.

They're one leg.

I like that leg quite a bit.

Browns, Lions, Browns getting nine and a half.

And I would be all over this, except their left tackle, Dewan Jones, is out, and their right tackle.

Conklin is questionable and they can't really score to begin with.

But man, the defensive stats for them,

what they did to Green Bay last week and just what they've been doing in general, they're first in rush, fourth in pass, first in yards per play, third in sacks, first and first down.

Baltimore ended up with 41 on them, but that was a weird game.

It wasn't a 41-point offensive game.

And then Detroit has a really good offense too, but Detroit coming off Monday night.

Just everybody blowing smoke and Dan Campbell proving that it wasn't all about Ben Johnson.

They just have this awesome win.

And it just, it has all the makings of a stayaway.

And that's what I think we should do.

Yeah, I don't disagree.

I think that the number is crazy.

Nine and a half is an insane number.

It's too high.

It's

way too high.

Yeah, exactly.

Three points, three full points too high.

You cannot say enough about this Cleveland Browns defense.

You got to give it up to Jim Schwartz.

They had the person, they fixed, they figured out what they did wrong last year.

And the pass rush is back.

And it's ferocious.

They have played Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, and Jordan Love, and they get pressure on all those dudes.

The only reason why we're not going to fire on this is because we can't bet on Joe Flacco on the road, I don't think, to get any points whatsoever.

I like Judkins too.

Me too.

And they established the run pretty effectively, but that's the

injury to the offensive lineman is a bummer in that respect.

They made a great trade.

The Travis Hunter trade was awesome, and they ended up with Graham, who,

I don't know, their front four is just really good.

I was really, really impressed by them in that Green Bay game because we had,

I can't remember how I bet Green Bay, but I was nervous in the second quarter because it was clear their defense was disrupting everything Green Bay wanted to do.

Giants Chargers is another one.

That looks like a let's be careful out there.

Giants, six and a half point underdogs at home.

Jackson Dart starting, Andrew Thomas back in at left tackle.

And that Charger is O-line.

No Slater, who's out all year.

But then Bechton looks like he's out.

Their center Bozeman might be out.

They're riding high off these three wins and a lot of Herbert love, but I thought they had a ton of trouble protecting Herbert last week.

And this Giants defense, if the crowd's fired up about Dart,

this feels upsetish to me.

The Giants defense is...

28th pass, 31st rush,

and the Chargers are second in pass.

but yet their offensive line worries me.

It feels like a stayaway, but I do like the Giants.

I don't want to bet on a rookie quarterback in his first start.

That's why we're not doing it because we're five and ten.

We can't do a rookie QB.

I mean, Harbaugh's 4-0 against the spread against rookie quarterbacks.

Is there a stat of me?

Yeah.

Well, if I was, because I was considering, you know, do we do something with the Chargers?

I did the teaser that America should not do, which is the Chargers down to one and a half and the Green Bay Packers down to one and a half house.

I did it

or a half, whatever it is.

I did that.

I did that.

I told America not to do that on Wednesday's show just because I did it.

That was my public service announcement to everybody.

Do not tease the Chargers and the Green Bay Packers together.

Don't do it.

That was like the bad idea of Gene's commercial.

That tease.

I agree.

So she asked me

to have unprotected sex.

And I said, when's the next time I'm going to be in Haiti?

Remember that commercial with our own?

The bad idea?

It was one of those.

Bad ideas.

Bad idea.

I think that tease is a bad idea.

Okay, the likelies.

I have five.

Tell me, I'll just, I'll say what they are and then we can go to them.

Raiders, Bears, Jags, Niners, Falcons, Washington, Vikings, Steelers, Pats, Panthers.

Is there anything we don't have out of those five that you liked?

No.

No.

So when you sent me the notes,

some people accuse us of being, you know, I'm too agreeable, but like the whole point of this is us collaborating and trying to find games.

Yeah, we're at work.

Talked about beforehand.

We're trying.

We're trying.

We're too agreeable.

The fuck.

I mean, like, we argue all the time.

I did talk you out of week one, the Seattle Seahawks, you know, against the 49ers.

You had that on the list.

The problem is we've been agreeing on bad picks.

We're five and ten.

Bad picks.

We're bad at this.

I almost want to guarantee a four and one this week, but I'm not going to put that.

Don't you, don't do that.

I just want to say I have hit my same game parlay each of the first three weeks

on the Sunday pregame show, and I am two and one on the Sunday pregame show with my best bet.

So good.

We'll bring some of that magic here.

I'm trying.

I'm trying.

That's it.

Here I am.

Raiders, Bears.

Raiders by one and a half.

Bears coming off of we looked way too good last week game.

Raiders coming off of we didn't look good at all game.

So there's a double zag that I like.

It's a loser-leaves town match.

I think if either of these teams lose, I find it hard to believe they're going to make the playoffs.

The Raiders going one and three, like they're going to go eight and five down the stretch.

Like they're just going to be two up and down.

They're pretty healthy, though.

And apparently Bowers is fine.

I didn't love the way he looked.

He didn't look good against Washington.

The Bears had this miracle game where they play this really limited Dallas team and Liam gets hurt in the first quarter.

So it's not like I think that could have been a shootout and it just that got taken off the table.

They have a bunch of secondary injuries and all the defensive stats for them are really bad, including they are last in the league in yards per play allowed.

And Vegas's offense, I don't know.

So

put a pin in this one because I'm not all the way there yet.

And the reason I'm not all the way there yet is because we had two consecutive crappy Geno games.

Now, we anticipated that they were going to have, I did at least, I said on this show and other shows that I thought that it was a bad spot for the Raiders coming off of that Monday night football game against the Chargers in the previous week, just a tough spot for them coming east out here for a one o'clock game.

The compelling reason to invest in the Raiders here is because he's back home in that dome.

His splits in a dome are so much better.

And, you know,

they are showing something in terms of

offensive potency.

That guy, Tucker, was unstoppable.

He had

to do these.

Yeah.

Listen, this is pro sports.

You have a shitty week.

You recommit during the week and practice.

We got to get it.

And this is why we do this with the season.

It's just, we go down, we go up.

This feels like a Bears come back down, Raiders go back up.

I like the price.

I think this line should be be two and a half okay i don't know why how do the bears only how is this in the tic-tac zone the bears fucking suck on defense

and they're on the road what why do we think they're so anyway i i i feel like we're getting a free point and if the raiders lose this game their season's over next one feel more strongly about this one jags plus three and a half yeah against san francisco no bosa No kittle, Pearsall and Jennings questionable.

The Niners have had just a slew of injuries already.

We're either going to have a Mac Jones with a sprained PCL or a slightly injured Brock Purdy at starting QB.

Scary special teams, as always, for San Francisco.

And this is, the cousin I talked about this on Sunday.

I like how Jacksonville looks.

I think they're defense.

I think they have a pass rush.

I think they're causing turnovers.

Like they're doing shit.

You are correct.

And offensively, plays are there.

Guys are open.

Like they're just not stupid shit's happening with them, but that it, they remind me a little of the Pats where like you can see the potential of what's there.

Um,

I just think they're, I kind of like the Jags.

I got to be honest.

I mean, just in general, not even this game.

I just kind of like them.

Yeah, I agree with you.

I like the spot and I like the number and I like the Jags to win this game outright.

Um, because I think the Niners, this is the

angle that I'm particularly invested in is them looking at their division game on Thursday against the Rams and saying, look ahead,

we have to come into that Thursday night game as healthy as possible.

And so if Purdy, for in any way, shape, or form, shows, you know, distress or, you know, he's not moving well, get him out.

It just doesn't make any sense to,

you know, rush him in and push this one all the way through.

And you hit on the key.

I think on both sides of the ball, Jacksonville has like a, has a spine.

They have an identity.

The thing thing that they keep doing is self-sabotaging they need their goddamn receivers to catch the goddamn balls when trevor lawrence hits them in the hands and trevor lawrence needs to do better at hitting them in the hands his accuracy is still in the in the bottom third of the league but they lead the league in terms of drops uh drop percentage and so forth so uh yeah i'm i'm how about this they should be three and oh They beat the Panthers.

They completely gave away that Bengals game that they should have won, and I don't know how they didn't win.

And then they beat the Texans last week.

But I really like that one.

I think the line's too high, too.

I think it should be one and a half or two and a half.

Yeah, we're in agreement.

The only thing you would say you would worry about is are Jacksonville's defense numbers somewhat illusory because they've played offenses that are better, you know,

top-notch.

Joe Burrow getting hurt.

Right.

C.J.

Stroud and whatever is, and a team with a terrible offensive line.

But, all right, next one.

Falcons, Washington.

Falcons plus one and a half.

Atlanta coming off a horrible loss and Washington coming off an easy win.

The big thing here is your team is just banged up.

Yeah.

No McLaurin, it looks like.

You bunch of defensive injuries.

Daniels might play, might not play.

Ecker's already gone.

You have a bunch of just no-name receivers, I mean, running backs.

And,

you know, the Atlanta D, the stats are pretty, with three games is like enough of a sample size.

The stats are pretty good with them.

They're first against the pass, fourth yards per play, second first downs allowed.

I think there's something there with them.

The question for me is, why did it look like you guys had never had a practice on offense last week?

And did you fix that?

I'm going to bet on the talent.

I think they can win the game outright.

Well, the difference is.

Pennix on the road versus Pennex at home and all the communications issues, all of the things that we cited at the top of the show about things that Atlanta did to figure out how to make the communication work better, bringing the coach down, the offensive coordinator down to the field, fire the wide receivers, coach.

You know, we got to get the plays in quicker.

We have to have Pennex.

All of that should work better at home.

And they have shown us a kind of class.

What they did going into Minnesota and being able to establish the run, and they just ran the ball with the two-headed monster of Algier and Bijan Robinson.

And, you know, they got to get Pennex throwing the ball to those receivers in the end zone.

I think they're committed to it.

This is the game in which they're going to possibly have some success.

It hurts my feelings to go against Washington, but man, that secondary is so depleted

across the board.

So

the spot is correct.

And that's counting Lattimore, who's still playing.

Oh, my God.

Fake thugs.

Fake thug.

Falcons have the Bucs beat.

This was one of our ringer 107 losses,

and they fucking blow it down the stretch.

That was week two.

Multiple ways.

They blew it multiple ways.

Week two,

they spanked the Vikings.

Spanked them.

Week three, really stupid Panthers game.

They fall behind 7-0.

They just stopped running the ball.

I don't know what they were doing.

And I think they bounced back.

I really like the Falcons plus one and a half.

Let's go to Ireland.

There's a nice angle there also for teams that get blown out by 30 or more.

I saw their bet.

They cover like nearly 70% of the time the next game.

How about this angle?

Conspiracy Bill looking at week six, Bills, Monday Night Football.

So Atlanta plays the Commanders, and then there's a week five by,

and then the Bills.

I think the league wants the Falcons to be two and two heading into that Bills game.

It's a little more fun coming off a win.

Okay, fine.

You get some calls?

That's fine.

Viking Steelers in Ireland.

It kind of frightens me how much I like the Vikings in this game because their quarterback's going to be Carson Wentz.

But I love the Vikings.

And I think part of it is because I watched that entire Steelers-Pats game every play, and I just do not think the Steelers are good.

And I can't believe the Pats lost that game.

I cannot get over it.

I started preparing myself after I listened to you and cousin Sal on Sunday night for this pick.

That you were, yes, like it violates all your rules.

It's a Sunday morning game.

It's the first first game in Europe.

One of my first rules is don't bet on this game.

Do not bet on the game when you wake up and an hour has already gone by and you're down to nothing.

And then there's a Carson Wentz rule.

I mean, there's some amazing rules that we are going to violate because I think that the template that they showed us last week against the Bengals is eminently repeatable against Pittsburgh.

Super repeatable template.

That defense blitzing Aaron Rodgers into oblivion.

He is the worst quarterback in the NFL under pressure.

His completion rate, his accuracy, everything goes down.

He is immobile and they do not have any safety valves on that offense to let him get the ball out and protect him.

They're cooked.

I like the Vikings.

I said to Sal last week, I really only feel like Rodgers can do two things anymore.

Like the gets the snap, quick throw, like bubble screen or right over the, and he has that, and he has that three steps back, quick throw, back shoulder play, and nothing else.

I just didn't see one other thing that he could do.

Here's the other thing: Minnesota's run defense isn't good,

which might be a problem certain weeks, right?

It was a problem against Atlanta.

It's not going to be a problem against Pittsburgh because Pittsburgh's running game is bad.

Bad.

Rogers bad against pressure.

Minnesota loves pressure.

Pittsburgh should be 0-3.

They should have lost the Jets game and they should have lost the Patriots game.

And I just don't think they're good.

Here's another thing.

Jordan Addison back for Minnesota.

Yeah, I love that.

This happens right around week three, week four, week five.

Guys pop back in and you kind of forget.

It's like, oh, your left tackle who is suspended for steroids.

Now he's back.

I forgot.

Addison being back for them is a big deal because

now you can actually throw the ball in Pittsburgh, which the Pats did.

Pats had 26 first downs in that game.

Let me just say this out loud so that we're acknowledging it.

When we wake up, Carson Wentz is the quarterback of the Vikings.

We wake up and he's playing at 6:30 in the morning, Pacific time.

We wake up in the morning and we turn the game on, and Pittsburgh is up 17 to 3.

And you're like, what the fuck is going on here?

Listen, that's why I'm going to wake up at 6 in the morning so I don't have to have that experience.

I want to watch every play lab.

All bets are off in Ireland.

You just never know.

The other thing, I mean, Pittsburgh's defense,

super gettable.

I mean, I'm not saying that Wentz is the guy that's going to get them, but I do like Jordan Mason.

I like what he showed us.

And he didn't have to play the fourth quarter

against the Bengals.

Heisman's still after the Steelers.

Another angle I like.

Craig Horlbeck and the fantasy football guys are going to be there.

Craig, big Steelers fan,

about to shed some Irish tears

watching Aaron Rodgers backpedaling for his life for three hours.

He can drown those tears in a delicious Guinness and a Jameson.

That's what I recommend.

Jameson, a little Jameson, and then a little Guinness.

Last one, Pats, minus five and a half or minus 250 against the Panthers.

There's just abysmal stats for the Panthers here about

dogs after a money line win the next week is really bad.

Panthers hurt on the offensive line.

Gonzalez is going to be back for the Patriots on defense.

Carolina's offense, 38th yards per play.

Their defense, 32nd in sacks, 32nd in QB hits, 32nd in hurries, and 31st in tackles.

Oh, that sounds wonderful.

The Pats offense, eighth and first downs.

Dude, seventh passing?

They moved the ball up and down the goddamn football field against the Steelers.

Here's the thing.

Let me just say this also.

Another thing I'm going to say out loud for us to hear.

We're not going to be pussies.

We're going to lay the fucking number.

We're going to go ahead and lay the five five and a half.

We're going to do it.

We're grown ass, man.

We're trying to win picks on this show.

The number is five and a half.

It's to me a little light.

If it was seven, I might like tap the brakes.

But there's nothing instructive about the way that Carolina handled Atlanta.

There are no takeaways from that game that inform what's going to happen in this game.

The inside rush ability, the Patriots have a pass rush.

It is a good pass rush.

Barmore and and Milton.

What's Milton's last name?

Milton Williams.

Milton Williams.

We just met the Doris Berkman called Mr.

Milton.

I got that close.

I got that close.

I love that idea of them getting Bryce Young off his spot, get that man moving, and then good things happen in terms of turnovers.

I want to go ahead and lay the five and a half.

If they can't win by seven against this Panthers team,

this season is going to be awful.

But I really think the Pats, I had McShea on before you.

McShea was saying the same thing.

Like,

he thinks the Pats by like week 10, week 11, there's going to be something there.

I really think there's something here with the Pats.

And I thought they should have won last week.

Exactly.

The other thing is to that point, the handicap for last week was correct.

It was a good handicap on the Patriots.

They just turned the fucking ball over five times.

Let's just not do that this week.

We fumbled on the goal line and we threw a goal line tipped pick.

Let's not do that.

All right.

So it sounds like we have five picks that we like.

No parlays this week for us.

We're just doing five straight ups because the fifth one right now would be Raiders Bears

and we could run from that one and do

yeah that's the one we put a pin in.

I'd rather just do a money line parlay.

Okay.

So you want to do like a like a Packers Texans money line parlay?

That's the one.

That's that's the Let's go to Texas where the Texans are

sending Callahan home.

Tommy boy Callahan.

All right.

Well, you know what?

Let's take a break.

We'll figure out what we'll do.

We'll come back.

We'll do our Ringer 107 picks.

And then you're going to break down the Rider Cup for us and tell us how to win money and better gets our country.

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Today's Ringer 107 is brought to you by FanDuel.

And holy macro, House and I just, we just did a 25-minute break.

Poor Gahal and poor Eduardo were just sitting there pouring gasoline on themselves like that, like the people in an airplane

as we just debated, trying to figure out odds, trying to figure out what our parlay was going to be.

And I think we ended up in the right place because we had to obey House's edict that we had to be men, put chest hair on our chests.

For me to act like a guy whose birthday it is and just get on the pat straight up.

Yeah.

Happy birthday to you.

Thank you.

Just to go patch straight up minus five and a half.

So here we go.

The Ringer 107 for week four.

We are five and 10.

Hopefully we're 10 and 10 after these five picks.

We decided not to do the Raiders, Bears.

We talked about it a lot.

If we were 10 and 5, I would bet on Geno Smith, but we're 5 and 10, so we can't.

So we are going to bet on the Jags plus 3.5 against the very, very, very banged up San Francisco 49ers.

Both House and I like the Jags, just in general.

We're not going to apologize either.

We think they're pretty talented, correct?

They are talented.

They have to

stop self-sabotaging.

Well, we're taking the Falcons plus one and a half against your beloved Washington Seawards, and we're doing it because we're 5-10.

And if we have to bet against one of our favorite teams, we're going to do that.

Not a great spot for your team.

Speaking of self-sabotage, yes.

We like the Falcons with the bounce back.

We're going to Ireland for a 630 PT start.

Vikings Steelers.

Both of us absolutely love the Vikings minus one and a half.

This is a rule breaker special.

We are breaking the rules.

We're breaking the rules of don't bet on this game ever.

Don't bet on a game that starts before 10 a.m.

on a Sunday.

And

don't bet on a game with a bunch of drunk Irish people.

Don't bet on Carson Wentz.

I'm 25% Irish.

Don't bet on Carson Wentz.

Another rule we're breaking.

Bet against Aaron Rodgers and bet against a fraudulent Steelers team are two really good rules.

So we're taking the Vikings minus one and a half.

We're going going to bet the Patriots straight up minus five and a half at home against Carolina Panthers.

We think the Pats are better than the record.

I think the Panthers are probably a little worse than their record.

Well, they've only won one game.

Yeah.

They're one and two and they should be minus one and four.

We're going to take the Pats straight up.

And then this is what we debated.

We threw in a bunch of people in this.

We really wanted to put the Packers in a parlay.

We did.

We tried so hard.

We wanted to figure out a Packers-Texans parlay, but the minus 120 rule for Ringer 107, the bet has to be minus 120 or better from an odd standpoint.

And we just couldn't make it work.

We turned to our old friend, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.

We are doing the Packers minus two and a half against Dallas, a team that will not have C.D.

Lamb, that will be going against Micah Parsons.

And we do not think they're going to be able to move the ball that well.

And we expect a Green Bay bounce back.

So minus two and a half.

And we're putting them with the Chiefs alt line on Fandu plus seven and a half.

Yeah.

Close Chiefs-Ravens game.

I had to talk you into it.

Something scared you is that the Ravens offense scared you?

What scared you?

That's literally it.

The Ravens' offense is incredible.

Um, speaking of self-sabotage, if Derrick Henry stops fumbling, you know, at crucial moments of the game when they're driving to go up by

significant margin, I was hoping that we could figure out a way to get the Chiefs by eight and a half, but seven and a half is satisfactory because the Chiefs at home don't lose by margin.

Xavier worthy back.

Yep.

I mean, really, the Chiefs are going to get blown out by double digits at home and go one and three to start the season?

I don't think so.

Ravens defense is bad.

The Chiefs should be able to run the ball, some Pacheco.

I feel okay with this house.

Those are Ringer 107 picks.

I hope we turn it around.

Today's Ringer 107 brought to you by Fando.

It's subject to change.

Okay, let's talk about something you are passionate about.

The Ryder Cup.

You've been just putting more and more money

on the other team that's not America over and over again.

You've been, as the foreigners keep winning PGA tournaments, and you would just sprinkle more and more Ryder Cup money on them.

But now you're going to the Ryder Cup with our buddy Nathan Hubbard and you're going to root for America.

Do people know you're a turncoat?

What's the deal?

Well, I've been public about the fact that, as a rational better,

when I'm trying to help help all of the birdie buddies out there put a little bit of

green US dollars in their pockets, the rational bet is on Europe.

And Europe at the moment is getting on the FanDuel Sportsbook.

Let's see, I think they're plus 160, right?

Plus 170, right?

And the U.S.

is minus 150.

So your take is you feel like this is basically 50-50.

That is my take.

That's exactly right.

The foreign side, the bad guys, are plus plus 170 in a 50 50 matchup where they have a more experienced team you pointed out on the ringer gambler show yesterday it's basically the exact same team as they had in the last rider cup except for a twin brother switch

yeah if you took the picture of of 2023 and the picture of this year it looks the same same team looks the same i wanted it's it's like nothing nothing is different i want to expand on a point you guys made that i thought I've been thinking the same thing because this is such a hard ticket to get and it's so expensive.

And And everybody's like, Ryder Cup in New York, this is going to be crazy.

And it's like,

is it?

Is it going to be crazy?

Because did you see the U.S.

Open tennis crowd?

Yes.

Similar kind of, oh, you really need connections and some money to get here.

And oh, here's, here's, what's that drink they have at the U.S.

Open?

The honey glaze or whatever it's called.

Yeah, that's right.

With $38.

Right.

Yeah.

$38 drink.

You should get an overpriced sandwich from David Chang.

Just kidding, Chang.

I just want to make sure he's listening.

Just want to make sure he's listening.

Overpriced short rib sandwich from Chang.

$39.

But anyway, that's

just kidding, Chang.

That is, that's going to be the vibe at this thing, right?

Are normal people going to be at this?

There will be, yeah, you know, some folks, and they did, you know, offer up a set of tickets, but, you know, the early movers and the bulk of it, I think, was folks moving in on on expensive ticket packages so it's all it's all people like vino from caa he'll be there wearing a vest i mean speaking of where's my hat there we go i have my vino yeah there we go yeah he'll be he'll be there with some snazzy vest shaking hands but it's going to be a lot of that it's going to be a lot of people that we know for vino guess what people like us don't make a lot of noise at golf tournaments

you know it depends on how many cheer but we're not like you want people like the j-bug circa 1995 at this thing.

That's what you need.

You want like hardcore people in their 20s who are like, I'm going to fuck with that

fucking guy from Germany.

I'm going to fuck with that guy.

Tyrrell Hatton, right?

You know, Tyrrell, you piece of shit.

Fuck you.

All right.

So give up, give us some bets that we should do this weekend with the Cup.

Well, in the first place,

yes, the Europe price remains attractive at plus 170.

They announced the first four matches matches tomorrow morning.

It is the alternate shot.

It's going to pour rain tomorrow morning.

So it's like, well, isn't it now?

I don't know.

We're going to see.

You know, the weather forecast is iffy indeed.

It's been, it rained today

out there.

The four matchups are

the leadoff is Bryson D.Chambeau and Justin Thomas.

So we're going coming out with bangers up against John Rahm and Tyrell Hatton.

Speaking of, and the the the line on that match is rom and hatton plus uh 100 so even money and djambeau and thomas are plus 130.

i i love the rom hatton combo and that's like one of our best duos that's not a good sign for the us winning the thing when we're not even favorites in a match where we're throwing those guys out

i don't know whether or not it's one of our best duos it's an enormous unknown what's our best duo in your opinion?

What's the one you're counting on the most?

In this forsome format, which is the alt shot, our best team is Scotty Scheffler and Russell Henley.

Russell Henley, deadly short game specialists, and Scheffler, you know, will put them in good position.

And, you know, unsurprisingly, that team

is favored by a good margin over Ludwig Oberg and Matt Fitzpatrick.

The Scheffler-Henley team is minus 165.

If you want to lay that, I'm not mad at you.

I think that's a perfectly fair price.

Should have put that with the Packers.

There's nothing stopping us.

There's still time.

Yeah, I mean, you can build any kind of parlay.

I already parlayed

Europe to have the first day lead with the Georgia Bulldogs.

That was like plus 223 tomorrow on the FanDuel Sportsbook.

Yeah.

You can't do any shenanigans with Bringer 107 because Sheriff JJ gets upset.

He just wants to know what the rules are.

I don't, I don't, I'm not mad at you.

And you liked, what was the other one you liked?

Just for the

there was one.

What was the blank?

There are some.

There's one golfer you love.

There are some Victor Hoblin.

Yeah, there are some matchups.

So Victor Hoblin is matched up in, you know, who will win more points in this tournament, Victor Hoblin or Cam Young.

Cam Young was favored at minus 148 and Hovlin was like plus 110 or something like that.

Hovlin has played every single session of the last two ryder cups he's he played all five sessions in uh 2021 and he played all five sessions in 2023 and you know that the euro team comes in with analytics saying yeah we we think that that uh hovlin's a good investment um so i just think for cam young he's the king of new york he uh was born and and oh i don't know where he was born but he was raised out um in the hudson valley his dad was a golf pro out at Sleepy Hollow, and he, as a kid, won a tournament at Beth Page, and I think set the course record.

So he has like good, good vibes at Beth Page, but that price is crazy to me.

For a real

baby doll is going to be there at Ryder Cup to no surprise.

I wonder if there's...

So all I have to do is go find the smoking area.

That's where Baby Doll will be.

Find the smoking area.

Also try to find the odds on Findle for amount of hours Baby was at the Ryder Cup this weekend compared to amount of hours he was in LA for Jimmy's show.

What did he need to be at the show?

The Ryder Cup is favored by 38 hours.

More details to come on Sunday's pod.

I'm backing baby on this one.

What did he need to be at the show for?

His work was done.

The fact that there's a show, that's the work.

That's what Baby Doll is there for.

Jimmy's on the show.

Is there a show?

Yes.

My work is done.

Where's the golf tournament i can't do a baby doll accent baby come on uh i gotta meet carson daly he's hosting a rider cup thing he did he did host one yeah uh baby's very excited for this this is he really feels like uh

this is

this is going to be a special special weekend for america I'm a little more dubious.

There are some unbelievable home field advantage Ryder Cup stats, at least for the last six or seven.

So that is

hence the thing i'd be surprised if we won wow i really would i really would be surprised why

i just think that that foreign team

the the one thing they haven't done lately is come on our turf and take the cup i thought what sal said about how the draw 10 to one and europe gets to keep the cup that's a that's an interesting one but um i would bet the raised the trophy bet for europe which i think was like plus 125 something like that

Let's look and see if that's changed any.

Because then you're covered with the stupid draw because they could always play for the draw.

Lift the trophy,

USA minus 140, Europe plus 124.

So that's like closer to the applied probability of those odds.

Yeah.

Yeah.

That's all.

All right.

So you're going, you're going, and on Saturday, people should know if they run into you.

You love buying drinks.

I hope you're from

hospitality tent to hospitality tent, just helping myself.

I don't plan on.

Is there a signature drink?

Uh, that's a great question.

I don't know.

What would it be?

Like a Beth Page, yeah, I'm sure.

Beth Page Spritzer,

probably,

probably, yeah, Beth Page Splash.

I haven't, I haven't done any of that research yet.

Patriotic Punch.

I'm not planning on buying any of any drinks, spending a million.

Don't buy one drink.

Let Vino buy you drinks if you run.

Vino.

Yeah, come through, baby.

He'll have, I guarantee he'll have a really nice Ryder Cup 2025

vest.

All right, House, have a great time.

I really hope we're 10 and 10 next time I talk to you.

Yumi Bo, I'm knocking on wood.

Good job by us.

Good job by us.

See you later.

All right.

Thanks to Todd.

Thanks to House.

Thanks to Gahal and Eduardo as well.

Don't forget

Prestige TV Task Sunday night.

And then new rewatchables coming Monday.

So you have four days here to watch this thing.

And I will be back on Sunday night with the Cuz.

And we'll talk about some of the, we both went to Jimmy Kimmel's show on Tuesday, which was fantastic.

Just a great experience.

But we'll talk about all the stuff that happened with Jimmy this week.

And we'll talk about Sunday night football and college football and a whole bunch more.

Enjoy the weekend.

I'm off to enjoy my birthday.

And I will see you on Sunday.

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