Is Trans Ideology Dead? | Episode 77

A now viral post on X asserted the trans ideology is officially dead based on the stats.

But 20 million impressions later, and it seems like it all was a sham.

So this week, a British and Canadian professor whose name is Eric Kaufman posted a now viral thread basically asserting the trans ideology, especially for my generation, is over, amongst many other things.

Now, this post took off, like I said in the introduction.

It has almost 20 million impressions on X alone, just on his individual post.

And people have spent the last few days celebrating, congratulating each other, said we have won the culture war, everything has changed.

But unfortunately, the numbers and the stats do not tell the entire story.

So let's just dive right into this here.

This is the beginning of the thread, the first post that Eric made.

And this right here is the graph that, according to Eric, shows the decline in trans ideology.

So Eric Hoffman said, Number one, trans identification is in free fall among the young.

And there we go.

You see 15.5 million impressions at the time that I am recording this.

And you can see he is pulling from multiple different studies here.

But in fact, what he is talking about in this graph, there is a very evident free fall.

Now, Kaufman posted that graph as evidence of the decline in young people identifying as transgender.

But the graph that he posted is not even about transgenderism.

It is about people not identifying as either male or female, but instead, rather, non-binary.

So let's actually read the graph.

Share of students not identifying as male or female from 2016 to 2025.

Again, it is not even about transgenderism.

And yet he is asserting that trans identification is in free fall among my generation.

Now, the studies that Eric Kaufman is pulling from to do this report did not give the option for trans female or trans male.

It simply was male, female, or non-binary.

So everybody saw this.

They read his headline.

They looked at the thread.

They started to celebrate, but they were celebrating something that simply does not exist, something that was not even addressed in any of the graphs that he posted in his entire thread.

Certainly not in the graph that started the entire thread, started this entire conversation.

Very slowly, other academics started to speak up over the next 24 hours.

They tried to correct the data in their own posts and their own threads, but they have obviously been overshadowed by the excitement and the virality that this post garnered on X.

Now, one independent health and science journalist whose name is Benjamin Ryan, he focuses on gender medicine.

He wrote a substack piece basically debunking Kaufman's entire thread, and it's entitled, No, the data has not shown that transgenderism is effectively over, as Matt Walsh trumpeted.

And obviously here he's trying to use some name recognition to get people to read the sub-stack to hopefully look at the real data.

So he is using that Walsh's celebration that was done on X in order to do that.

But apparently this journalist, Benjamin Ryan, talked to Eric Kaufman, the professor, and pointed out that the core basis of his argument that he laid out in this entire thread, his entire assertion, was about non-binary identities and did not even include transgenderism.

And in his article, he gave us Kaufman's response.

He wrote, Kaufman told me today that he merely presumed that people who identify as transgender would check the non-binary box on a survey form.

But even if such a presumption were logical, which it is not, social scientists really should not be publishing and broadcasting such bold findings based merely upon their own speculation.

And I completely, completely agree with that.

And honestly, the fact that Kaufman was presuming and just using speculation when he made this broad assertion shows me that Eric Kaufman probably doesn't have a great understanding of these various identities or how these individuals within these groups actually operate if he thinks that a transgender individual in the year of 2025 would check a non-binary box because within their framework, those are completely distinct identities.

I mean, the very basis of being trans is that these people believe that they are the opposite gender.

Usually it's not that they are in between or neither, and usually they do not even want to identify as trans because again, they are asserting that they actually logically are a different sex.

So no, when they are presented with a survey that is like this, they're not going to check the non-binary box, they're going to check the box of the gender that they believe they are.

So again, Kaufman's entire conclusion is just false because it is not rooted in any kind of reality.

It is rooted in his own speculation.

But this little important fact has been missed by the millions and millions of people who saw his post.

Now that it has gone viral, now that the mainstream media has picked up the story, and it's unfortunate because the story that he's painting is actually not accurate at all.

Now, in his sub stack, Benjamin Ryan continued on and he wrote, One thing that we do know is that trans identity among young adults has increased exponentially in recent years, as a 2024 paper found.

Note that the chart below documents trans identification in adults based on the year that they were born.

The more recently they were born, the more likely they were to have a trans identity, such that just over 3% of Americans who are 21 or 22 years years old fall into this category.

So this is the exact opposite of what Kaufman was concluding in his post.

He was saying that the younger you get, the less trans you are, the less likely you are to identify as trans, but it actually is the complete opposite.

So unfortunately for everybody who is celebrating on X, there still is work to be done.

We are not finished.

We should not be celebrating yet because actually we are still trending in the other direction.

And I think obviously it's easier for people to see a post, see it as a win and just move on.

They'll make their celebratory posts and keep on scrolling as we all do on social media because we have the attention span of a pee.

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Now, back to the story at hand.

This whole situation is so unfortunate because had Kaufman not slapped the transgenderism label onto this report, we would be having a totally different conversation.

We would actually genuinely be having a very truthful and positive conversation that would be worth celebrating.

Because what is accurate about what he posted on X, what is accurate about his findings, is that non-binary identification is on a decline.

He thought that that meant that transgenderism was on a decline, but non-binary identification is declining, as is identifying as LGBTQ, especially for younger Gen Zers.

We can look at these two posts from his thread.

This was the second post.

And he said, non-conforming sexual identity, queer questioning, et cetera, is also in a sharp decline.

Gay and lesbian are stable, while heterosexuality has rebounded by about 10 points since 2023.

He goes on and he says not only this, but freshmen in 2024, 2025 were less trans and queer than seniors, whereas it was the reverse when BTQ plus identity was surging in 2022, 2023.

This suggests that gender sexual nonconformity will continue to fall.

And all of this seems very accurate, especially with what we know about the political divide between older Gen Z and younger Gen Z.

I kind of fall in the middle of those two categories, but the Gen Zers that were in high school during COVID, they are far more right-wing, they are more culturally conservative than the older Gen Zers who are already in college during COVID.

There is a split within the generation, and that is being shown in this data.

So, what Eric is saying here is accurate.

Now, later on in the thread, Coffin then goes through all the possible reasons why this would be happening, like the improving mental health in Gen Z, the changing cultural attitudes, the changing political attitudes, et cetera, et cetera.

And he really ends up arguing that non-binary and LGBTQ identities have just been a fad and they are fading away as a fashion trend might.

And all of that is incredibly interesting.

And that feels very accurate and honest to me, even without the addition of transgenderism.

So I wish that he had just stuck with that because that data, that conclusion in and of itself, is worth talking about.

And his conclusion, even with the removal of transgenderism, is what so many people have been saying for years at this point, that all of these crazy progressive gender politics, it is a trend.

It is a trend fueled by insecure young people who are searching for community and purpose and meaning, which which they find within the LGBTQ community, which they find within progressive gender politics.

It gives their life a purpose.

It gives them a community.

It gives them the opportunity to rebel.

And in the year 2025, it's really not rebellious anymore.

And therefore, as the culture changes, as they grow up and change, as they grow out of puberty and their own insecurities, they will move on.

And obviously, it is already starting to happen.

I mean, take the recent debacle with Emma Watson and J.K.

Rowling.

I mean, after years of distancing herself from JK, shaming her, publicly calling her out along with many of her other castmates, Emma Watson went on Jay Shetty's podcast and said how much she loves JK Rowling, how she respects her, and basically acted like she was smoothing things over and trying to get back in her good graces, even though they disagree on this one big issue.

Take a watch.

I really don't believe

that by

having had that experience and holding

the love and support and views that I have mean that I can't and don't

treasure Jo

and the person that

I had personal experiences with.

I will never believe that one negates the other

and that my experience of that person

I don't get to keep and cherish.

Now, obviously, that that is a lovely sentiment.

But the reason why I was laughing as I was watching that along with you guys is because it's just so incredibly ironic that now she is saying that.

After years of piling on, of contributing to the cancellation of JK, of not speaking out in support of her, of not saying anything remotely like that, years down the line now, she's going, oh.

You know, we could agree to disagree.

I love her.

I have such wonderful experiences with her.

I hope she can love me still and I can love her and we all could just sing kumbaya and move on.

I'm sorry.

We all would love that.

That is what we have been trying to achieve.

But it's been people like you who have hurled the most insane, baseless attacks on her after she gave you everything.

And obviously, you do not have to love somebody forever because of an opportunity that they gave you when you were a child, but the fact that you so aggressively turned your back on her and now you're trying to walk it back.

I mean, genuinely, it is laughable.

And so we watch this clip and I'm laughing at it and I'm like, okay, so what changed?

Now, obviously, Emma did not say that her opinions and politics have changed.

She is, you know, clearly saying we still disagree.

We are agreeing to disagree.

So clearly, what has changed is the culture.

Emma has realized that it is less cool, it is less desirable to be dying on the hill of men chopping off their dicks and getting boob jobs.

Emma knows that.

She knows that the majority of Americans, at least, think that that is insane, That they are not in support of this kind of gender ideology.

And so she herself is moving on.

Now she cares about nuance.

Now, even more recently, and this also has to do with JK Rowling, actress Kira Knightley, who, by the way, I just love Pride and Prejudice.

It's one of my favorite movies ever, so I adore her.

But she is voicing a character in a new Harry Potter animated project.

And she, in a recent interview, was asked about JK.

And when she responded, it basically seemed like she was rolling her eyes with her entire body.

Take a listen.

I I saw your voicing Professor Umbridge and the new

Harry Potter audiobooks.

I was wondering, are you aware that some fans are calling for a boycott giving J.K.

Rowling's ongoing campaign against trans people?

I was not aware of that, no.

I'm very sorry.

You know, I think we're all living in a period of time right now.

We're all going to have to figure out how to live together, aren't we?

And we've all got very different opinions.

So I hope that we can all find respect.

I mean, she was basically just like, give me a break.

She's like, no, no, I did not know that angry people online are trying to boycott J.K.

Rowling projects.

No, I did not.

Like, let's all just move on and let's try to respect one another.

I mean, this is crazy to think about, but imagine that interview happening two years ago.

She would have been tarred and feathered.

She would have had to make an Instagram apology.

She would have had to write something in her notes app about, you know, what resources she's looking into for the trans community, what GoFundMe she is donating to, how she's listening and learning.

But now, in 2025, no one cares, including herself.

She knows how ridiculous that question is.

Now, J.K.

Rowling isn't quite ready to forgive, especially when it comes to Emma Watson.

And while we're here, and while I have you held captive, I do think that we should read JK's response to Emma's statement from a couple of weeks ago.

This was while I was on maternity leave, so I didn't get to do an entire episode about this, but I think that this really fits into what we're talking about today.

So after Emma went onto Jay Shuddy's podcast and said all of that, again, kumbaya, nuance, she loves me, I love her, this is what J.K.

Rowling responded with after years of staying silent.

I'm seeing quite a bit of comments about this, so I want to make a couple of points.

I am not owed eternal agreement from any actor who once played a character that I created.

This idea is as ludicrous as me checking with the boss I had when I was 21 for what opinions I should hold these days, which is very fair of her.

Emma Watson and her co-stars have every right to embrace gender identity ideology.

Such beliefs are legally protected, and I wouldn't want to see any of them threatened with loss of work or violence or death because of them.

However, Emma and Dan in particular have both made it clear over the last few years that they think our former professional association gives them a particular right, nay, obligation, to critique me and my views in public.

Years after they finished acting in Potter, they continue to assume the role of de facto spokespeople for the world that I created.

Oh, I'm literally getting chills just reading this to you guys.

When you have known people since they were 10 years old, it is hard to shake a certain protectiveness.

Until quite recently, recently, I hadn't managed to throw off the memory of children who needed to be gently coaxed through their dialogue in a big scary film studio.

For the past few years, I have repeatedly declined invitations from journalists to comment on Emma specifically, most notably on the witch trials of J.K.

Rowling.

Ironically, I told the producers that I didn't want her to be hounded as the result of anything I said.

The television presenter in the attached clip highlights Emma's all-witches speech, and in truth, that was a turning point for me.

Now, if you don't know what that is, Emma Watson was at an award show.

I don't remember which one it was.

She was presenting an award and she made some comment about, you know, how she is in support of all witches.

And that was a comment about the LGBTQ community.

And then very quietly under her breath, she said, all but one.

And that is believed to be a comment that was directed at J.K.

Rowland.

So that is what she's talking about here.

And she says, so that was a turning point for her, but it had a postscript that hurt far more than the speech itself.

Emma asked someone to pass on a handwritten note from her to me, which contained the single sentence, quote, I am so sorry for what you're going through.

She has my phone number.

This was back when the death, rape, and torture threats against me were at their peak, at a time when my personal security measures had to be tightened considerably, and I was constantly worried for my family's safety.

Emma had just publicly poured more petrol on the flames and yet thought a one-line expression of concern from her would reassure me of her fundamental sympathy and kindness.

An expression of concern that she could not even give to Joe directly, that she couldn't text or call.

It had to be passed on through somebody else.

JK goes on and she says, like other people who have never experienced adult life uncushioned by wealth and fame, Emma has so little experience of real life that she is ignorant of how ignorant she is.

She will never need a homeless shelter.

She's never going to be placed on a mixed-sex public hospital ward.

I'd be astounded if she's been in a high street changing room since childhood.

Her public bathroom is single occupancy and comes with a security man standing guard outside the door.

Has she had to strip off in a newly minted sex changing room at a council-run swimming pool?

Is she ever likely to need a state-run rape crisis center that refuses to guarantee an all-female service to find herself sharing a prison cell with a male rapist who was identified into the women's prison?

I wasn't a multi-millionaire at 14.

I lived in poverty while writing the world that made Emma famous.

I therefore understand from my own life experience what the trashing of women's rights in which Emma has so enthusiastically participated means to women and girls without her privileges.

The greatest irony here is that had Emma not decided in her most recent interview to declare that she loves and treasures me, a change of tact I suspect she's adopted because she's noticed that full-throated condemnation of me is no longer quite as fashionable as it was, I might never have been dishonest.

Adults can't expect to cozy up to an activist movement that regularly calls for a friend's assassination, then assert their right to the former friend's love as though the friend was in fact their mother.

Emma is rightly free to disagree with me and indeed to discuss her feelings about me in public, but I have the same right and I finally decided to exercise it.

I mean, like, what a mic drop.

That is like the mic drop of the year.

And again, like I said, like, I get full body chills every time I read this statement.

And I think that anybody who has been canceled, who has lost friends, great friends, friends that you have known for decades, who have lost opportunities or work because of their beliefs can relate to what Joe is feeling here.

It's positive, it's bittersweet, but it stings because the world is changing.

And yes, people's opinions are going to start to change.

They're going to be waking up from this angry, delusional, in my opinion, fog that they've been living in for the last five, 10 years.

And hopefully they will come back down to reality.

But hopefully they do so honestly, knowing that they have spent the last few years advocating for something that was so incredibly ludicrous.

But for the people out there who are only changing their tone because of convenience, whether it is for popularity or cultural wins or political wins after years of hurling attacks, especially against people that they know and love, like Emma did to J.K.

Rowling, Like, I'm sorry, but I think we will be less forgiving.

Like, obviously, if you are coming in with good intentions, understanding that you've changed your mind about something genuinely with integrity, that is a completely different story.

But if you're just riding the wave because it's popular, no.

Like, I'm sorry.

That's not where I'm going to welcome you with open arms.

And so I think that J.K.

Rowling has every single right to say this.

Now, to circle back to the main point of this episode, everything that we were talking about, the main point here is that yes, Professor Kaufman, things are changing in the world.

You are right about that.

At least in culture, they're changing.

They just don't seem to be reflected in the statistics just yet.

But I I would not be surprised if that changes over the next 12 to 24 months.

So maybe next time, just don't jump the gun because you want to say something that's popular or is going to get clicks.

Your data and the story that it told was interesting enough without trying to stretch it to include transgenderism just based on speculation alone.

Give it time.

The culture is changing.

The media is changing.

Obviously, the celebrities are backtracking.

I think we'll see it in the numbers soon enough.