Why We Lost in Wisconsin — Explained

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So we're at 28% of the vote in. Let's just update on the macro.
Susan Crawford commands a nearly 107,000 vote lead. No spin.
That's a lot. There's still a lot of votes left on the board.
That's a 17-point lead. The configuration of that, it will likely tighten.
How much it will tighten, we will see based on election day votes. There are a ton of red counties that have yet to perform.
But understand, as you guys look at this map, it's it doesn't what is not.

Can you guys. election day votes.
There are a ton of red counties that have yet to perform, but understand as you

guys look at this map, it doesn't, what is not, can you guys please go back to the entire statewide? Thank you. What is not shown on this map is yes, red county, red county, red county, is what Donald Trump did is he brought in voters that have never voted and he made red counties redder, meaning the turnout was so high.
The Richter scale was that he made rural counties basically the power of a suburb where rurals used to just kind of be an afterthought. He combined like 50 rural counties together where it basically became its own Waukesha.
And if you are not able to mirror that or have that continue in special elections, it's very, very hard to win. Now, look, it's a serious deficit right now.
It looks as if it's about, what, 100 and... About 115,000.
Well, and Blake brought up... Yeah, I was just trying to do some of the math here.
Yeah, Blake brought up a couple of things that are really important for us to keep our eye on. So Waukesha County right now just dipped down below 60.
Brad Schimmel's got to be at 60, 61% minimum to have a fighting chance statewide, or at least to offset Milwaukee. Ozaukee County is a real problem.
Ozaukee County is right now like blake mentioned brad's running four points down again this looks to be mostly um early votes so i i would i think i believe that this is early votes still but you know you don't want to be down in you need to win ozaukee by a healthy margin on election day to help offset

those Milwaukee votes. Now, Washington County has a report.
I'm going to be the very blunt, direct communicator. This is not a great map for us right now.
And it is demonstrating of a high prop electorate as we have built a low prop party, a 19 point deficit and a now 137,000 vote deficit with 33% reporting. I don't like our odds.
I'll be very honest. It might end up getting much closer and much tighter, but we are not seeing the juice and the squeeze of high, high turnout from some of these areas that we will need.
I'm not saying that is 100% correct that we're going to lose. I'm just going to be honest.
I'm not seeing it in the cards right now. Blake.
I want to look at the, we've talked about the betting markets. We like to look at the betting markets because that's what people who are willing to put their money where their mouth is are saying, and they're tracking what they expect the specific outcome to be.
And there, there will will be blunt they don't see it as very likely we're going to win they are narrowing in here you can see all the odds for a close race are dropping all the odds for a super blowout those have fallen away too they're settling in they their favorite is susan crawford by eight to ten points 36 percent and they still have some for, for by more than 10 and some by a little less than eight. But that's, that's what they're surging for right now.
Yeah. And the real problem again is going back Waukesha County.
You have to have a dominant performance for Republicans. You have to turn out.
We have to have as many voters out as possible

for that to offset. Green Bay has not yet reported.
Brown County has not yet reported.

That's going to be a huge thing to look at too. That's a big population center that has shifted

far right. So Tony Weed, who's the new congressman that's up in that direction,

we've got to have a really severe, severely high turnout to help offset. And then, you know, we talked going back to Kenosha and Racine.
Racine hasn't yet reported, but Kenosha is not looking as good as you would want. You would want Kenosha to be flipped right now, which is, you know.
Now it's up to percent in and i mean i'll be honest crawford has a bigger lead than all the votes uh 73 percent of kenosha of kenosha 73 percent of kenosha county is in this is a county that trump won by about two points uh and i think it was actually three or four points and we're down there by six and that's that's worse than when it was at 50 50 yeah and and now dane county is about 50 percent in and shimmel's down to 21 which again you're knocking on the door if he his that's the floor the floor for him is like 20 21 we got to keep that up in order for things not to get go completely haywire Now it's 57% and he's hanging in there at 21%. So you can't tap out yet on that.
For sure. But again, we want to compare to...
I am going, again, I'm going to have to just come in because, again, I don't want to waste people's valuable time. Even though it might not be good for ratings, I give us an enormously low probability that this is going to be overcome.
I'm just going to be honest. I'm not saying it's impossible.
I want to look at the analytics. I want to look at the data.
And the reason being is I'm just went state by state is that the low prop voters did not show up in the numbers that we needed. These are the working class men that showed up for Trump and then they just disappear.
These are your carpenters and your welders and they work in the cheese factories and they build Winnebago's and they are the backbone of the country. And we call them phantom voters.
Donald Trump was able to basically get these people to appear. Donald Trump was able to get them to appear and they've never been on anybody's data roll.
They've never been on a voter file. never been anywhere and poof they show up and they say and guess what wisconsin had same day registration now hate to break it to you guys decision desk which has not been right wrong about much of anything has just said the wisconsin supreme court race is over uh defeating conservative brad schimmel so hate to break it to you guys now Decision Desk.
We'll keep an eye on here with how the rest of this report comes out. And, again, we're still hanging in there.
Waukesha is now at 77%, still hanging at 58%, which is not enough. Waukesha has got to be at 62%, again because of the size the magnitude of the county asked it's big enough where if you win by that much which waukesha used to win for conservatives by that much that is that is again the home of scott walker he lives he lives there not far in Pewaukee.
Pewaukee is one of the largest couch voter voting situations that we have. We talked about with Charlie.
The loss here isn't to the radical left. The loss is to our own people not turning out.
And some of these wards... We lost to the couch.
Some of these wards just don't... They have thousands of people who don't show up for these votes yeah so we're gonna in last november we had 3.4 million people vote this is going to be an enormously high turnout off election considering it's not a midterm not a general in the fall this is a spring election we're going to break 2 million votes on this it looks like it'll be 2.3 2.4, but that is a million missing voters where you'll be able to say if we'd had the five, there'll be 500,000 Trump voters from last November who did not show up.
And we're going, it's going to be close enough that if we'd had, you know, plausibly half those people arrive, we might have won this. But not enough of those.
And just you lose by a few points. You know, as much as we won it in November, but we won it by 0.9 percent.
There was not a lot of room for it to move left at all. So we likely had a bit of that.
And then if you have the enthusiasm enthusiasm gap if you have democrats spending more because they really want to win because they're really fired up and they're also just as we say the higher prop party right now they get more meaning out of politics they invest more of themselves into politics they're more likely to track every single race however obscure it is they're going to have they're going to be able to pick up one point, it looks like. And we've got to continue working on our strategy to get people whose engagement with voting as they maybe voted for Trump in 2016 and voted for him in 2024 and otherwise have largely avoided voting.
we need to work on the strategy of getting those people to consistently vote in midterm elections and in these off-cycle elections that well if because if the democrats are the high prop party they'll have the advantage in every election that is not a November election. Well, we know what the

solution is. The solution that we had in Arizona was you have to put full-time bodies on the low prop voters.
You have to have those people out for months and months and months and months. And you have to have enough people to be able to chase enough votes to win.
The forecast right now saying it's probably going to be in the ballpark of about 1.15 1.16 million votes that are going to be cast again these are just project projections but 1.6 million votes uh sorry 1.16 million votes for susan crawford you've got to chase that many votes. You've got to get out.
And this is much higher than people expected. This race is probably going to end up being well over 2 million votes cast.
Our estimation was we needed 2.2 million votes cast. We might come out slightly underneath that.
And that's part of what's not going to help Brad shimmel is we didn't get enough election day turnout, but that is, that is where you look at this and you go, okay, well, how do you get that many people out to vote? You've got to put that many bodies on that, on those people. And there's simple math to it.
What the left funds effectively one full-time person to chase somewhere in the ballpark, about three to hundred votes if you want to win and again there's not unfortunately not enough exuberance for supreme court races from the right for donors to to fund that many full-time bodies but yeah the difference here is probably going to be 150 000 votes which give or take is another 500 full-time people you have on the ground. The left has those people already, and we know this because they have the unions.
They give union workers time off. They already have the C4 set up.
They pay them. Our side doesn't have that.
So you have to build it. You have to fund it, and you have to keep it permanent.
Well, and Tyler, just's there's there's just to piggyback on what you're saying there. It's what people have to understand is that states in that northern tier from Michigan over, particularly working with the labor unions over there, traditionally speaking, they have this massive Democrat infrastructure, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, that's existed for basically a generation at this point, where they literally have people who, as you say, are paid full time, 24 seven, 365 days a year to do Democrat politics to work Democrat politics.
So a Donald Trump type candidate comes up and yeah, that'll get working class people to cross the line to get more active active, to come down out of out of work, to take time out of their busy lives because they're working class, they're working to go and cast a vote for Donald Trump. But any other Republican, like I was just saying, is going to have to work 10 times harder.
You have to you have to thread three needles to be able to get those same type of workers to come out. Democrats on the other side, as you're saying, Tyler, don't have this problem.
Democrats have, look, and you think of the Democrat worker, right? It's so much easier for them to do that type of work, fill in an absentee ballot, fill in an early ballot, mail-in ballot, because a lot of them are more of the white-collar workers. A lot of them are more of the, you know, working in an office or in many cases, working from home these days, you're working at universities, you're basically paid to be a Democrat, you know, paid to be a liberal 24 seven and to make more liberals like, like over there in Madison.
So there's there's a lot of inherent issues with having the low prop turnout when you don't have Trump on the ballot. And these are issues, by the way, the Democrats have been working with for a long, long time.
And this is where their control of the institutions statewide in places like Wisconsin really comes into play. Well, the institutions like unions, the teachers union, for example, you know, you have did we lose Charlie for a second here? Yeah, you just step away for a second.
teachers union you have i mean you have a lot of people in a lot of places who are already assembled our our site has to assemble these people you have to prepare you have to hire them they have to have jobs like you can't just snatch people out of thin air and be like oh quit whatever job you're working in and come do this they have to have a job full-time doing this again this is this is where the unions maximize, right? They have a full time job and they go, oh, you can take the next three months off and go campaign. Yeah, we'll pay you.
And you get basically double dipping. You get your normal salary, you get your time off, and then you get the C4, the nonprofit money that they'll throw at you to go do this work and chase votes.
And our side, again, this is where we're screaming from the rooftops is if you want to break that threshold, if you want to break through, you're not going to have Trump on the ballot each time that makes it easier to do that. Right.
And we, that's where we got so lucky this last election. We were lucky because it was easy to get people to go give money to help support Trump and then to help go chase votes for Trump.
It's a much tougher uphill climb, uphill battle with a relatively unknown candidate. And again, Brad Schimmel is awesome.
He was he's he is an incredible dude, legit, easy to work for all that stuff. But people just don't know him.
Right. And so they're not going to just abandon their livelihoods to go do something for six months or a year or three months or two weeks.
So we had a, we have an incredible team that's been on the ground in Wisconsin, you know, give or take about 200 people who are working at or nearly full time. And then thousands of people who were going in, you need about for this race to close the gap on what's there.
That's in addition to what's been done. You need another 500 full-time people to be on the ground.
We just did that math, but then you need about 10 times the amount of volunteers, about 5,000 volunteers. We had, we just pulled this today.
We had about 4,000 people that were helping in some capacity across Wisconsin. It wasn't enough.
You need more. And again, there's not a historic nature of activism within Wisconsin in conservative politics.
You got to build that. And so that's got to keep growing and keep moving towards, I mean, we're looking at Dane County here.
21% is, you know, your, your, your floor for Brad Schimmel. He's hanging on by a thread, but this Waukesha number, Oh, Ozaukee County just flipped.
That's true. Yep.
Which is good. Uh, but what this Waukesha number isn't where it needs to be.
We got to get, that has to be at like 62, 63% and holding and which, which is where he was. And it's really interesting because some of these other votes that came in were not super favorable to Brad Schimmel.
So we'll keep looking at this and keep an eye on it. And this is Brad.
So we'll keep talking while we're here as we're looking at these results that are coming in. Oh, and we just got another dump here.
It looks like things have stayed pretty much even. Trending still about 120,000 ballots down.
So you got to start figuring out where can those come from. Waukesha County is now 80% in, which it was about 75% just a few minutes ago.

They've also dialed Milwaukee back to 50%, whereas it was over 60% before.

So that's not great.

Not good.

Yeah.

That's not helpful.

Dane is 55.

So you're looking at about half of the vote in both those places.

And I'll be honest, we're running a bit behind where we were in those counties a few months ago. Brown County's in, uh, again, not as high as you would hope.
Um, it's not bad. Green Bay has been kind of split.
It's a 58, 42 number right now. Only 24% of the vote is in.
You expect a pretty decent day of election showing there for Brad Schimmel. But again, just more votes keep dumping here.
And you're moving backwards. And you're moving backwards.
And that's not good. Kenosha, not in good shape.
95% of the vote. All right, you have to win Kenosha and Racine.
And Kenosha, you're back six points right now. You're down 3,000 votes.
That's a lot. That's a lot for a place that you're hoping to win.
Yeah, I don't... So I've been analyzing this data.
Let me just kind of repeat this, though, for everyone watching at home, is that these off-year elections are going to continue to be a challenge for our party and our movement absent a change of strategy and a change of approach from the top down and also the bottom up look we can't blame working class people for not showing up we have to do a better job of exciting them of finding them and from bringing and and bringing them out to vote in a full grassroots mobilization and getting the mindset right. And let's also just appreciate President Donald Trump's ability to get these voters out, something that people thought was impossible.
The two people of this century that have been able to get low propensity voters out is Barack Obama and Donald Trump. And interestingly, they were both able to get out similar types of low propensity voters.
The party has been remade. The Democrats are now going to permanently enjoy this kind of high prop coalition that they've built.
And we're still dependent on Trump's magic. I want to ask Jack this.
Jack, theoretically, with maybe a vice president, Jay Vance, being the nominee in 2028. Can we win back some of these high prop voters? And can we can we bring the low props to be similar to the turnout of Donald Trump? One of those two things need to happen.
Jack, your thoughts. Yeah, I mean, that's that's really the 12 billion dollar question, isn't it, Charlie? Yeah, you're right.
So J.D. Vance, as it stands, let's say devil's advocate, he becomes the nominee in 2028.
He's obviously going for this. And it's J.D.
Vance's brand to begin with, right? He's sort of got this, he's equal parts like white collar and blue collar mixed into one. Curtis Yarvin said something about how J.D.
Vance has so many Americans within him. And I think that's an incredible, you know, an incredible way to view it.
You know, he goes to the Marines and he's a Marine. He goes to a bar and he's a bar.
But yet he can also sit down with like the New York Times and speak their language, go to Munich and tell off the globalists. So I do think that he makes the articulate case for new rights, Trumpism, nationalist populism, this in the same in a way that I think wouldn't necessarily turn off those high prop voters like you're talking about that Trump typically tends to do.
But at the same time, you're getting you're getting portions of the high prop base. But also he doesn't have have that he just doesn't have the same name ID.
He doesn't have the name, same street cred that Donald Trump does. And who could for the record, by the way, who could have the same level of street cred as Donald Trump with blue collar workers.
So, you know, of course, we've all seen the the, you know, the articles this week about, you know, what if what advance runs and Trump is on the ticket with him? I don't think that's a good idea, by the way, because that would, you know, if Vance resigns, that would preclude himself from running and actually being president in the future. And it's it's it's really going to be something where, again, he's going to have to be threading needles.
You know, maybe you'd look for a balancing act of having someone who has that, you know, either either blue collar appeal or also that cross party appeal. Someone who's able to pick up people from the middle, people, people.
And and really, by the way, tap into the Maha movement. You know, I think the Maha movement.
And let me just, you know, you know, step back and even bigger for a second. I didn't see the Maha movement getting engaged in the Wisconsin election because I didn't see anyone ask the Maha

movement to get engaged in the 2025 Wisconsin election. I didn't see anyone reach out and

explain to Maha why they should be involved in a Supreme Court race in Wisconsin. I didn't see

anyone asking for their votes. I didn't see anyone campaigning for their votes.
And I'm a big believer

in people don't come out and vote for you because you say you should. I think people come out and

vote for you because you ask specific coalitions to come out for your vote. This is something that FDR understood.
This is something that coalitions building on the Democrat side has understood for almost 100 years now. And I haven't seen any Republican really work this work this out up until Donald Trump put it together in starting in 2016, but then on forward in understanding that you have to go to each group specifically and ask them for their vote.
So, you know, it's the big piece of the table or piece of the pie that was missing here in Wisconsin was Maha. Did anyone go and ask Maha to get involved in Wisconsin because he didn't see it? And then you look at the but you look at the profile of a Maha supporter.
They actually do fit the high prop, white collar, suburban female, suburban white female, almost, you know, synonymous type voter. So maybe if Maha was on board or found an angle to be on board, you would have had those types of voters show up a little bit better.
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Yeah, I mean, look, in order for us to compete against the Democrats, Tyler, I want you to just brag on the great work that Turning Point Action did here. Again, we're about results, not just activity.
So it doesn't, you know, there's no consolation prize here. But talk about what the Democrats had on the ground in permanent infrastructure to win this Wisconsin Supreme Court seat.
Yeah, I mean, this is again, we just went through this. But, you know, the Democrats have a permanent infrastructure, particularly behind the blue wall, where you have this historic union based epicenter.
And you've got unions, you've got union members, they're vicious, they're angry, you know, on the left, the union bosses. I mean, most of the unions are actually pretty split.

They're about half and half in a post-Trump world here in a Trump era world where there's a lot of blue collar folks that are Republican.

But the leadership, that's why I'm referencing the leadership are all Democrats and they have the structure, the infrastructure is built. And the infrastructure that's already there pays people,

basically salaries and family members' salaries

to go out and do this work that we have to build from the ground up.

And again, bragging on the Turning Point Action staff,

we have incredible people who have made up significant ground.

We saw that in the 2024 election for President Trump where we chase tens of thousands of ballots that put them over the top. But here in this, I mean, you look at the last Supreme Court election with Dan Kelly, and you know, he lost that election by about 100, almost 200,000 votes, 200,000 votes, I think it was.
That's a lot of ground to make. You have to have on the ground.
And so the number that you need to make up what's projected now to

be, you know, a hundred, a little over a hundred thousand vote loss. We'll see how many total

votes get counted. I mean, it looks like we're trending towards that 2.2 million that I mentioned

that would put Brad Schimmel in the, in the ballpark of, of having the ability to win,

but you've got to chase 150,000 votes to win, you know, to have some safe padding. You know, you got to have 500 more full-time people on the ground.
And that's the way that the left pays them, Charlie, is they pay them basically full teacher salaries because you can't just hire, you know, people who will just come and go. You can't hire off Craigslist.
You have to hire people who treat this as a profession. They have to be people who are basically, they do hire a lot of teachers.
They hire a lot of people out of schools. They hire a lot of union family members.
And they say, this is your job. Now you are going to build relationships in the neighborhoods that you live in.
And you're going to chase these votes every election. If it's for dog catcher, and we tell you to, you're going to chase it.
If it's for Supreme Court, you're going to chase it. If it's for president, you're going to chase it.
And they have that infrastructure built in Wisconsin. And so we've got to match that.
There's 50 organizations the left has. We can't survive with one, two, or three of those doing small amounts of work.
You have to have many big organizations doing that,

making up that ground,

or you have to have,

like I said,

40,

50 of those organizations like the left has.

And we're heading towards that.

And,

you know,

Charlie just pointed,

poignantly said it is that this is a,

we have to keep telling people this is the mindset shift.

If you're,

you're not able to do this in places like Wisconsin,

you're not going to be able to do it in Pennsylvania.

That's a bigger state.

They're not able to do this in places like Wisconsin,

you're not going to be able to do it in Pennsylvania.

That's a bigger state.

You're not going to be able to do places where we've never operated before that we have to win.

And we've got to build these things in the Sun Belt and other places

where we have to defend the Trump legacy, the populist legacy,

whatever you want to call it, in order to win elections for the next 5, 10, 20 years. The Republicans need to learn how to win when Trump is not on the ballot.
And otherwise, we're going to have a more structural issue. This is by no means a black pill, everybody.
I mean, it's not a wonderful night with Wisconsin. We control control the white house we prove that we can win in presidential style elections and by the way just for those of you keeping score at home it used to be that we were always so concerned that we could never win the presidential but we could only win the special so we've we've actually solved the far more complex high stakes riddle it's democrats that are now trying to figure out the riddle of how they win a presidential election, especially via the electoral college.
So there's no doom or gloom here, but we have to stay really focused on what are the lessons here? Low prop is a lesson and the infrastructure is a lesson. The amount of money that needs to be spent on full-time professional.
And I love what Tyler said there. And someone from Chicago just sent me a message.
Charlie, what you're talking about is a grassroots professional. It is a full-time grassroots operative.
I think that's exactly right. I think it's very smart.
When we just say full-time people, they say, what are they like a full-time taxi no it is a grassroots professional it is their full-time job it is what they do from the same way look if you have a leak in your sink you call a plumber if you have a car issue you go to the mechanic if you want to win elections you need grassroots professionals otherwise known as community organizers blake comment on again this is not catastrophic it's a wake-up call it's one that we saw coming and that we knew was coming blake what are the broad lessons for the republican movement here not just going into the midterms but on a more macro on a more Sure, sure. So especially as we've been saying, this is a reflection that we have to be ready for races where Donald Trump isn't on the ballot.
I know he's been talking about finding a way to go for a third term, but I will tell you, even if they find a way, it won't be with Trump as the number one guy on the ballot because that is definitely constitutionally out of the picture so you're going to have to have someone we have to start we have to develop the strategy for winning a post trump gop on a trumpian message we hope on the trumpian platform but there's clearly a singular charisma to donald trump that drives turnout that really inspires people and we haven't seen it pan out that without that you can muster a nationwide majority we can still win races we can still do very well at the state level but that tipping point of getting the national majority that can save the country you right now need trump and there's some systemic issues there that we have made that bargain of the gop has become more populist it's become more economically middle and even you know lower class instead of having as many high income voters and what that means is you've swapped out a lot of the people who care the most about politics. And that's not to say that that's a good thing.
It's often a bad thing that a person cares obsessively about politics. We have people who care a lot about their church.
They have they care a lot about their civic organizations. They care a lot about their families.
All of us have finite amounts of attention. and if they care a lot about their civic organizations they care a lot about their families all of us have finite amounts of attention and if you care a ton about your church and a ton about your family you have less amount of care to invest into politics and the left has a large share of the people who derive the most meaning in their life from their political engagement.
You to church on sunday they go to their trans lives matters rally on sunday and that is church for them you tithe to your church they tithe to this race they would have money coming in from all across the country for this vote they had money going from all across the country to those florida races races they had no hope of winning and they got millions of dollars for it because some people just really get into that for now the democrats have a systemic advantage with people who care a ton and who are obsessive and this will possibly get more intense because things are happening in politics that will fire them up. They're extremely fired up about Musk.
I can see this. I can see this in places that aren't even political, that people are all riled up about Elon Musk.
They're all riled up about Doge. They're all riled up about this or that thing that Trump is doing.
And that will probably continue, that there's always a natural balancing force to american politics to give another example this happened to obama obama wins a gigantic landslide in 2008 he wins indiana as he turns indiana blue you can look at how indiana voted in this past election that was a shocking result and he gets 60 seats in the senate he gets a gigantic majority in the house and two years later all of two years later wiped out in the house loses a ton of senate seats loses a ton more senate seats in 2014 he like obama is this hugely popular person who gets a ton of low prop voters to come out for him. And yet the rubber band effect of American politics, the natural backlash his success created, essentially created the modern Republican Party at the state level.
It massively increased our power at the state level. And I think we're seeing some manifestation of that with Trump.
They came out. We were very happy.
They came out very aggressive, like a cannonball. One executive order after another.
A lot of big things. Things that are going to take a while to pan out, you know, securing the border.
We're very happy that the crossings at the border have dropped to almost nothing. But the impact of that, if you're a normal person in a normal town, you're not going to see that overnight.
You're going to see it on a macro scale of months years decades even whereas people who have that moral trigger of they're securing the border and i'm super mad about that because i hate borders they're fired up now they are donating all the money now they are obsessively reading all the articles shared on facebook on instagram on daily coast on wherever they get their articles these days they're fired up now they're going to be turning out to the max and that is going to lead to defeats and we have to do our best to enhance our organizing capacity to limit those defeats to turn some of those defeats into victories and to make the most out of this. This is a loss, but I see some people commenting on our chats that this is the end of the project.
It is not the end of the project. This is not even a top 10 defeat in terms of badness.
Guys, this is a singular state Supreme Court race of which we are anticipating an uphill battle. We won the presidency in the Senate and the House back in November.
We won the top prize of American politics and Turning Point played a role and the president did it. We're good.
This is just, hey, it's a little bit of just a little bit of an elbow, a little bit of a wake-up call. Just take a deep breath.
Don't be cocky. A little humility.
Keep your head down and keep working. Blake, continue.
I agree with that analysis. There's nothing catastrophic here.
Yeah, and I'll say this too. I mean, this is even more shines the light on what do we have to do, right? Baseball season just started.
I love baseball because it's a game of adjustments, and you constantly have these series going on, and you you get punched in the face and then the team can come back out just in the example that Charlie gave and correct a lot of things with the new pitcher and fix some things with better heading and everything else. we have this situation now where we're looking at this and we're going, we can see very clearly what the differential is.

We can see very clearly what you have to do.

We know how many people don't show up to vote. The question is, is, you know, like again, what Charlie was saying, how are you going to figure out how to get those people out to vote when Trump's not on the ballot, making it easy? Uh, because people like him, they know him, they want to show up for him.
How do you do that well it's we know some of these things and we'll talk about them but we know what it takes to get some of these people out anyways uh and yeah just in terms of badness i want to emphasize this is not even our worst defeat at the wisconsin supreme court because the one we had two years ago that is what actually flipped it from a conservative supreme court to a liberal one this was a chance to take it back that would be great there's cases unfolding right now that are unlikely to go our way that we were hoping would go our way if we'd won this race this will have a real impact the reason we always compare it to the house this wasn't a house race but democrats have really learned that oh we can use redistricting. We can create new district maps.
They've developed this new weapon where what they'll do is in states with the blue Supreme Court, they will sue and say, actually, the Constitution requires us to have a map that Democrats will always win all the House seats. And the Supreme Court will be like, you're right.
That's such a beautiful argument. And then they'll just remake their House maps to have more democrat seats and that's why we don't have a bigger majority now we lost seats in i believe louisiana we lost a seat due to that i think we lost some seats in north carolina due to that uh and we'll probably lose a seat or two in wisconsin because of that it's not the end of the world uh these things have a way of not mattering quite as much as you'd think because the voters don't always do what you expect them to.
But it's a loss. It is not a utterly catastrophic loss.
We don't want to engage in catastrophic thinking here. Well, and you make and you make moves forward, right? Which is you learn something from all of these things.
Today, there was a fantastic outcome, again, and this contributes to some of it. The statewide referendum for voter ID in Wisconsin passed with, it's already done.
They've already called it significantly. It's passing with huge numbers.
So it's huge numbers right now, which is really crazy if you think about it, because it's like, how does a person not understand like what they're electing for Supreme Court, but supports voter ID that the left wants to completely undo. But I mean, look, this is part of the education process, right? Which is that message has to be clear.
You have to put more bodies on the ground to help make that clear. The way I best describe it is, is like Mary Kay sales.
Everybody, you know, knows the, the Mary Kay sales woman in their neighborhood. They know who that person is.
They understand that they buy something from her cause they don't want to eliminate the relationship, right? She go to church with her, everything And they know if I need something, I'm going to go to her. And, you know, she's going to knock on my door and, you know, I'm going to know her face to face.
That's what you need for elections. You have to have that Mary Kay saleswoman type approach that, you know, bring cookies to your doorstep type of approach in the neighborly way to be able to show people

what to do and what's going on and that they can rely on you for that. We've started the process of building that.
We did that really effectively in Arizona. We had that the elements of that on the ground in Wisconsin.
but you've got to invest into that deeply for that to be, to, to take hold and take root and to impact way down the line races like the Supreme court race. And, you know, there are, there are positives right now.
I mean, we're trending towards entire counties flipping red from the last Supreme court race. We're likely going to see a decent amount of those.
But again, the Democrats are smart. The left is smart.
They spend all their time, energy and resources in Dane County, for example, which you can't lose Dane County by more than 21, 22%, which means you got to get those Republicans out who have given up in those places. You got to win by more Waukesha.
You can't let slide even more ozaki you know you get you get a win we i think we lost ozaki last supreme court race so you know or if we didn't it was close so you know you're you're in this space now um no we didn't lose the last time but it looks like we're gonna far exceed butosha, for example, we're bringing up, you know, that is not going in enough of a good direction. Like you've got to turn out voters that turned out for Donald Trump down to Kenosha.
You know, again, that's a real working class stretch there between Chicago and Milwaukee that are right along there and Racine and Kenosha. We've got we're winning space space where i mean we're coming back from the obama era but we've got to keep the foot on the gas blake well do you want to give an update of some sort is that what yeah we'll just well people have been asking for an update the update is it's not really getting any closer we're down by about uh just under 12 points uh so it has gotten better but now we're at 62 percent of the vote is below 10 it might yeah we might get into that 9 10 point range so that's not great that's uh but and the experts are actually saying now they think that it's going to expand the lead is going to expand for crawford yeah i mean we only have 61 percent in milwaukee so milwaukee is apparently now behind what the overall result is uh we have most of it looks like all of kenosha and racine are in we those we narrowly lost those two those are places we won uh we have most of waukesha going back you have to win yeah i mean really in a race like this you've got to bridge the gap between the trump voter and this race and i the the the gap didn't close very much in kenosha uh racine i think i'm gonna pull it up i think we won that last time and that's that's a problem that's a real problem yeah it was close it was very narrow but very similar type results but it was it's positive and brad might end up winning that you know when it's all said and done because it's within just a few hundred votes but you got to win these you got to win these by a lot uh a lot more than where you're at right now brown county is kind of an interesting story because it looks like schimmel might uh completely flip the odds because last election uh dan kelly lost that by a few thousand votes it looks like brad schimmel like brown county is going let's uh yeah let's uh draw on that because uh andrew's asking how does this compare to 2023 that might be the better comparison than just that's's what we're talking about.
So yeah, last 2023, first of all, we lost by 11 points. So we may slightly beat that.
We're a bit behind it now, but we might improve it. We'll see how that ends up resulting.
But it'll be pretty close. If you look at the map, a big thing that stands out, there's way less turnout in 23.
That was already, we were getting pretty engaged, talking about this is important, but they had 1.8 million votes. We're at 1.5 million, and we're not even two-thirds done.
So we're going to beat the vote total from that one by 500,000, 600,000 votes, it looks like. And so that's way massive increase in turnout on both sides for a similar outcome and then yeah looking at the individual places uh we lost kenosha by a little bit more we won racine county in that one we're going to lose it narrowly here we're going to have yeah we're good they lost uh brown county in that one it overall is a pretty similar map uh we lost dane county 82 18 in that race we're doing better than that now but it's been trending against you mentioned 20 as that sort of bare minimum threshold we're now at 80 20 that's five points behind where we were in uh last november for example And Dan Kelly only won 18% of that vote.

It was a bloodbath.

So you could end up there.

And that will be part of the story, right?

Which is you can't do that.

You can't.

You got to be like Trump.

You got to be a 22, 23%, right?

Which is, again, part of that bridge gapping is you got to lose Dane County by less as

a percentage. The problem is like we're looking at this only 77 of the votes in in dane county right now there's a lot of votes that are going to end up being cast a lot more than last time in dane county they made up they can make up a ton of ground in dane county with that and that's what they did that's what they did they made up some of these other places that went are probably going to go light pink i mean dan kelly lost the entire southwestern part of of wisconsin last time it doesn't look like schimmel's going to lose the entire southwestern part of the state i'll be honest we might because those are the ones that are red are early turnout and a lot of the counties have trended blue a little bit over the course of tonight yeah i mean we'll see i don't know i mean we'll see what the outcome is it's still a lot of votes to count in some of those places um they're about 50 i think it looks like but you know i can't imagine i'm just looking at like vernon county and crawford county i don't think you're gonna lose them you, you know, lose those places by, I mean, you might, who knows? We'll see.
Uh, you know, St. Croix County's in, uh, pretty much all that votes there.
You've got a very similar, I think vote turnout there. Yeah.
It's a little bit better in St. Croix County, but that's a place that you need to do better that Trump was doing pretty good in.
Yeah, I mean, the name of the story is like we've got to get more of our low-prop voters out in each of these places, particularly, again, Waukesha County is at 90% now and we're still trending 58-42. It's just not good enough.
It's just not good enough. You've you got to be at 61 62 percent which is what we were going for in waukesha county that's almost exactly where dan kelly ended up and at 58 41 last time that that's not good enough like and uh that's a.
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Shouldn't you be looking into doing that too in the end it is all turnout we're already well above the number of votes that he got in waukesha two years ago oh yeah it's all all the turnout is up across the board but their turnout is up a lot too and that's why we're going to lose this one it's but i say turnout is up but again in perspective turnout is way down from what it was in either 2020 or in 2024 so in all of these non-presidential contests it's a turnout contest in terms of who loses less of the people that they got to vote in the last big election and it looks like they're going to lose a lesser total because they are fired up, because they are less attached to a particular candidate as opposed to just sort of being amped up in general. And they want the win.
I think you could reduce it to they want it more right now.

Well, and here's the problem, too.

Yes and no. I will say, though, it's just, yes, I think that is right.
I just it's just temperamentally the Democrats have remade themselves where they have a easier baseline of people that think politics and meaning are directly correlated together. our best voters the ones that put donald trump back in the white house

they kind of hate government and they hate politics. And they take massive convincing and nudging to vote at all and to get into the system.
Which is fine. We just got to work through that.
And I see it all the time on campuses. Our side asks more questions.
Our side does more research. our side is more thorough and just trying to figure out like, well, is this person really trustworthy? And Trump was able to overcome all of that with just this power of personality.
And remember, David Shore said that even with more turnout, Trump would have won 54% of that vote. And so even more turnout would have elected

Trump by more, which it's just remarkable. So we have to figure out the turnout issue, and the Democrats are building this coalition, which is a very difficult presidential coalition to keep alive.

However, in off-year elections, we're going to be in some choppy waters. Jack, your thoughts? Yeah, Charlie.
I mean, I think that it really comes down to most Republicans don't really talk about the working class. They don't talk to the working class.
They don't really have much understanding for the working class. When I say this, I'm talking about like the the professional Republican consultant class types, the people who, you know, are supposed to be doing this 24 seven.
You know, they they seem to think that you can get by with just saying like this person is like Trump so vote without any you know without bringing up any type of uh direct connection with that person without creating any actual excitement behind that person and you know or or again going to those individual members of coalitions to get them to work and i i'm just going to fundamentally keep going back to this point. The professional Republican class does not actually understand the Trump coalition and how the Trump coalition works.
They don't understand the different components of it. They don't understand the working class part of it.
I mean, do you think when I go around Washington, D.C., and I've been all over D.C., I've been to Congress, I've gone around the different department buildings at the State Department today for the First Lady's event there. But you see these professional Republican types.
I'm not talking about the Trump admin, but I'm talking about the others. They couldn't explain tariffs to you.
They couldn't explain what tariffs mean for the middle class. They couldn't explain what tariffs mean for the working class.
They don't actually understand how any of this stuff works or puts together so when it comes to messaging we they they just fall back on these things that they think are safe like oh trump good so vote for trump like guy like the the story is not there what whatsoever there's no story that's being told there's no message that's being sent and this is what and we wrote about this in the book last year this is what democrats are so so good at. What do Democrats offer? Now, I'm not saying what do they believe.
I'm not saying what are their inherent drivers. I'm talking about what do they actually offer? They offer a positive vision of the future, a positive vision of the future.
How many Republicans do that? Republicans tend to define themselves by what they're against. We're anti-abortion.
We're anti-liberal. We're anti-trans.
We're anti-whatever, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. But as we, and rightfully so, oppose all those things, what we're also not doing for a long time, and when you only have perhaps, what, 15 seconds is like the average length of a TikTok video.
Charlie, you know better than anyone. But it's like you have just a tiny little amount of time to get that across.

You've got to be able to convey a positive vision of the future to a potential voter or else they're just going to tune out and say, well, this guy is just angry about stuff. This person over here, and I'm talking about your like normie average voter, this person over here, like, again, if your name isn't Donald Trump, and you haven't been through, you know, the 12 labors of Hercules and the the hero's journey that Trump was on in front of the entire planet, you know, surviving, you know, assassin's bullet from a miracle by the hand of God himself.
Then guess what? You have to actually go back to regular politics because regular political rules apply to you because, again, your name is not Donald Trump. And that's something that I think a lot of Republicans need to understand.
Let's begin to kind of wrap it here. So what is the final count here? Looks to be around 11-point margin.
It's probably going to land around that, right, Tyler? Yeah, it's going to be about 10, 11 points. It looks know Schimmel could gain a little bit of ground with what is remaining uh but you know I'm not so sure Dane County again still story is that he's at 80 20 which is not good enough uh Waukesha County is at 42 58 or 58 42 I should say Schimmel not good enough Ozaki's pulled out ahead pretty similarly to what we've seen.
The results, again, not good enough. We're hoping for a five-point margin or above there.
So you look like you're going to end up at a 10-point deficit, which is really unfortunate because, again, you're looking at some of these places still and going, wow, we're really close with flipping some counties. But like Blake said, the outcome was if you started this race and you said, I mean, many of the pundits that were there on the ground said, all we've got to do is we've got to turn out an extra two, three, 400,000 votes, which we're probably going to do.
The goal of how many votes you want to turn out happened here the problem is the left also turned out more people and and unfortunately they did it and they they fund those things and did it so i think when we look at this it looks like saying about two-thirds of the votes have been counted we're at 1.6 million we're probably going to hit about 2.2 million, which is exactly what two point. Yeah, it's going to be above 2.2 million.
Wow, that's that's crazy. The expectations were at that high of level.
It was going to benefit Brad Schimmel more. But we're going to have to look and dive more deeply into some of these counties and say, OK, well, what happened? You know, how how did we not win win with a higher turnout on election day well i mean it could be high turnout but you lose the swing voters that's always a possibility too so there there's the turnout race of your base but there's also there are voters who swing this way swing that way and they could have swung back away for any number of reasons.
I mean, you saw... So, yeah, a couple things.

First of all. I mean, you saw...
So, yeah, a couple things.

First of all, I would hesitate to say that this is a referendum on Elon or Trump or Doge.

This has been a thing for years now.

This is almost an identical Supreme Court spring election result from spring of 2023,

before Elon was even on the scene and before Trump was the nominee, let alone the of the united states so you got to prepare for the media narrative let's put 198 up this is tim waltz and they're playing out their economic populist uh let's just say messaging democrats are going to try to go all in on economic populism we'll see if it works for them it be amazing. They're going to be economic populists trying to win high propensity suburban voters.
Honestly, they probably could get it done. High propensity suburban voters at our college educator will vote for anything.
They'll vote for their kids to become trans. They'll vote for Black Lives Matter.
They'll vote for their police station to get burned down. So maybe they'll do that.
I don't know. I mean, just the idea that high propensity voters are going to come back, that read the New York Times and listen to NPR are going to come back to the middle, even though, hey, my name is Alexandria Cesar-Cortez.
I'm going to take your home and your 401k, but I won't call you a racist. Might work.
Honestly, I know a lot of people in the suburbs of Atlanta that would love that message. Like, well, so if I don't have a home and I don't have money, but I'm not a racist deal, I'll vote for you.
That's basically what the Democrats are selling. I'm going to take all your stuff, but I won't call you a race.
So we have to prepare for that. And look again, guys, we, we won the biggest of all the prizes.
We won the greatest accomplishment in probably American, American political history. Elections like this can serve as momentary little cautionary warning signs.
Ooh, we got to fix that. We got to rebuild that.
We got to fix that. We got to fix that.
And if we ignore them, then they bubble up and they become massive, massive issues. I want to also say this.
Thank you guys who have emailed us freedom at charliekirk.com and that have been watching us. We're going to be giving away 10 signed MAGA hats.
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President Trump just put up a truth social voter ID just to prove the Wisconsin Democrats fought had it hard against this, presumably so they can cheat. This is a big win for Republicans, maybe the biggest one of the night.
You should allow us to win Wisconsin like I just did in the presidential election for many years to come. So again, subscribe to the Charlie Kirk Show podcast.
Email us freedom at charliekirk.com proof of subscription. Let's go around the horn, guys.
Other thoughts, closing action items. The grassroots right now are rather upset.
I wouldn't say that they're pissed. Just say they're a little bit ticked off with how things proceeded tonight.
I think that we need to look at the seeded equivalent benefit. This is not us losing the House of Representatives.
It could be, but it's not. It's definitely not us losing the United States Senate.
It's not us losing the presidency. We didn't lose a Senate race tonight.
What we did

is we got a window into the current state of our politics and things that we need to fix.

And sometimes that our movement needs to stop being so high on our own supply and getting back

down to the fundamental basics that we can build a majoritarian mandate for governance for generations to come. Jack, we'll go around the horn.
Start with you. Yeah.
So once again, just like in geopolitics here in regular domestic politics, we learned that history is not ended. The end of history has ended.
Politics have not ended. Donald Trump and the MAGA coalition are not the final end of all politics.
Turns out that public opinion, and it turns out that doing the work actually still are required to win elections, especially as I just keep saying this, if your name is not Donald Trump, you've got to work within the confines of the coalition. You've got to work with Maha as well as the other members of the MAGA coalition.
All of the broad sections there are. Working class, if that had been engaged, is a huge, huge component.
The union vote, obviously very big in Wisconsin, huge up there. That's a way to get engaged people and bring them out.
All of these things need to be done. But again, this sort of this sort of belief that, oh, you can just sort of wave your hand and the GOP consultants will say, oh, this person is like Trump and you can go vote for them.
Doesn't work. It's not going to work.
You still have to actually do the work day in, day out. You need to put funding behind people who are doing this 24-7, the turning you know turning point actions the scott presslers the cliff maloney's of the world all of this stuff needs to be on the ground if you want elections to win you do still have to eat your vitamins you know it's like it's like everybody wants to uh everybody what's the old the bodybuilding phrase like everybody wants big muscles but nobody wants to lift heavy things Basically the same thing.
Everybody wants to win the elections, but nobody wants to do the heavy lifting. Blake.
I just wanted to flag. So we have had Valsico has been making many paid donations.
I can't read all of them because some of them have swear words. But he says, you know, that the problem is we're not arresting enough people.
I would say if you're dissatisfied with the number of arrests president trump has been making in his second term you might be unpleasable because he's certainly on border related stuff that's ramped up i uh i don't think that is that issue is being ignored i understand people are very frustrated with this outcome as we said politics is a frustrating endeavor it is inherently competitive you lose about half of the races and even after you win you certainly don't really get much more than half of what you want there is far more failure than success in politics and part of politics is you just have to deal with it you have to accept that you have to move on you have to keep fighting charlie's always good on this where he says we have to keep fighting not because we're always going to win not because it's necessarily that fun we have to keep fighting because it's the right thing to do and that is why we do it we do it because it is the right thing for the country It is the right thing for our families. It is the right thing according to our belief in God.
And that is why we're going to keep going at it. And sometimes there's going to be backlash.
Sometimes there's going to be shortfalls. Sometimes you're going to get an outcome like tonight, which is not great, which I will note is still fine.
We got voter id passed we got two wins in the florida house races we got wins tonight we just decided we didn't succeed on the most difficult thing that of the night and it didn't work out that's just how it is in politics we will move on we shall try to improve our strategy and hopefully future streams will be better ones we had we were around in 2022 2022 was a bad night bad series of nights and two years later we had 2024 that was that was that was a bad week that was a very that was a bad uh year after that that was not good no no i i can uh tyler close us out yeah i was just gonna say we have no choice but to fight harder for permanent infrastructure if there's anything that we look at this that the the analogy that i i go with charlie is you can't build a tent you know out of paper, you know, and expect it to survive a hailstorm.

You've got the right has built nothing permanent in most states.

And I'm just going to say it again.

The right has built almost nothing permanent in most states.

And we're seeing some massive years of hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars that have gone to Florida and Ohio that are just starting to turn because of the massive amount of investment that was put in all throughout the Obama years and prior to the Bush years and the decades that went into that. but you've got to invest significantly into these states put the ground forces the infrastructure

and figure out how to build the community organizer model that charlie you know and i

talk about all the time and our team talks about all the time to have their relationships in order to win in each of these neighborhoods. And that's where you turn a corner.
We did not chase enough votes to win this one, but the votes were there to be chased. We did not win.
We not, we not lose this election because we didn't turn out more voters in the last time. We turned out more voters in the last time we hustled and we exp, you know, expended a ton of resources on volunteerism and, and timely, uh, dedication to, to Wisconsin, but it's gotta be longer It's got to be deeper.
It's got to be

more aggressive. And that's what the left has done in so many cases.
And so, yeah, I'm very proud of the expansion and the growth that's happened in Wisconsin, but it's got to be more. We got to do more and we've got to focus on the other states, the key target states.
And we got to be thinking about 2032 and 2028 right now. I know it sounds crazy, but 2028 is right around the corner.
And that has to frame all of our minds for 2026. That is well said.
All right, everybody. Thank you guys for spending time with us tonight.
Thank you, Rob and Parker, for giving us the deck. In closing, we won the two Florida races, which is amazing.
Look, God is good. God has a

plan for all of this. And maybe God is trying to humble us to kick us in the rear a little bit to

build that permanent infrastructure. We won the voter ID.
This was not a catastrophic night. We

won the two house races. Now, if we lost those in Florida, we'd be having a much different

conversation tonight. When you think about how to take more ground, and it is a perplexing problem.
It is a riddle. And I would love to have you guys email us, freedomatcharliekirk.com, how to get, how to defeat a side that believes politics is their religion in an off year cycle.
That is a difficult riddle to solve. So I want to hear from you guys, freedomatcharliekirk.com.
It's a wake-up call, but we still control the White House. We control the Senate.
We control the House of Representatives. So glory be to God.
And let's just get back to work. Think critically about these races.
And I'll be honest, I can't believe we're doing this again. I told the team, I said, didn't we just have an election like 140 days ago? Feels like Christmas was yesterday.
I was like, this is too soon. I need at least a little breathing room.
But understand, in November, we got the New Jersey governor's race. We have the Virginia governor's race.
We got a lot of elections coming up in November. And then a year from November, if you guys really want to get spooked, a year from November is the midterms.
And a year from late November, we will have active presidential candidates for the 2028 election. That'll be happening a year from November, late November, year from late early December, we will have actively filed presidential candidates.
Let's just enjoy not always having politics and elections all the time. Huge amount.
I think it's unhealthy how politically obsessed we are. We should be much more focused on culture, strong families, communities.
I say that as a political guy, it's just too much at times. But the left wants us to be politically focused and less focused on raising kids and honoring God and having faith.
So keep those, the main thing, the main thing. Thank you

guys. And again, subscribe to our podcast and email us freedom at charliekirk.com.
Thanks so

much for listening. Everybody email us as always freedom at charliekirk.com.
Thanks so much for

listening and God bless. For more on many of these stories and news you can trust, go to charliekirk.com.