11/6/18- Best of Program - Guest, Flip Pidot

The Blaze Radio Network.

On demand.

Hey, welcome to the podcast.

We are so glad you're here.

By the way, election coverage on theblaze.com begins tonight at 6 p.m.

That's Tuesday night, 6 p.m.

All of the results in a way that is a little more entertaining.

And we can commiserate if things go horribly.

I am the designated driver.

Tonight, that's at six o'clock at theblaze.com/slash TV.

On today's podcast, we are talking a little bit about the predictions, what the Democrats are going to learn from a loss or a win, which is kind of important.

Halfway through the show today, we found out NBC was reporting two Harvard scientists said that there is an alien, what could be an alien spaceship.

that has just come around the corner of the sun.

It's a

minor development in our world.

Kind of a weird thing.

Yep, we've got that going on.

And we talk about really, we go into depth on all of these races.

Where do these toss-ups go?

Which way are they leaning?

What do we expect out of tonight?

And what are the possibilities?

I mean, it really is a pretty open night.

It's not one of those nights where you feel like you're going in and it's going to be over early on.

I feel like this is going to be a lot of questions.

If the house is close, we're not going to know tonight because of all these late California races.

We'll get into all those details as well.

This is today's podcast.

You're listening to

the best of the Glenbeck program.

It's Tuesday, November 6th.

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Glenn back.

Well, here we are.

It is election day.

Today is a day we choose.

And it's not really about Donald Trump.

It isn't.

I mean, it is for the left, but it shouldn't be for us.

This is not about Donald Trump.

This is to decide whether we're going to be a capitalist nation or not.

It really is, to me, that clear.

But

I want to give you a quick recap, if I will, of the top three things I believe the left does not want anyone talking about as we head to the polls today.

We know what they want us to focus on, and that is all of the postmodernist kind of claims, class war, race war, gender war.

Insert any kind of made-up social issue, and that's what they want.

They want us to be divided and eat ourselves over this division.

That is the new left's playbook.

And that is why I really truly believe that we are looking at whether we're going to be a capitalist country and a free country or not.

This is the playbook that they have been using since a bunch of college professors came from France in about 1968.

I mean, it started earlier than that with a Frankfurt School closing in Germany when the Nazis were there and moving to Colombia in the 1930s.

But this is

a plan that has been long in the making.

But enough of the history lessons.

Here are the top three things they do not want us talking about.

Number one, the economy.

The economy, the economy, the economy.

It's the economy, stupid.

If that is true, then the Democrats are going to have a very bad night.

It's the economy.

It's no secret that I have my worries over the long term, over the state of our economy.

But right now,

wow.

Wow.

You are dropping your kids off to school right now.

You're slipping into a polling booth before heading into work, and the economy is strong.

The country added 250,000 jobs last month, smashing all expectations.

Do you remember that during Barack Obama's period, he had to tell you how many jobs they were, what was it, creating or remember?

It was a created or saved?

Yeah, created created or saved.

That was it.

Because they had no numbers to show that we were doing well.

Gross domestic product is up by 3.5%.

Wages and salaries are finally rising over 3%.

Customer confidence is now up, the highest it has been in nearly two decades.

New information from the Fed showed that 74% of the country reported that they are now living comfortably.

That is 10% higher than it was during Obama's second term.

There hasn't been the October surprise in the stock market.

It is the economy, stupid.

Number two,

mass crime, violence, hate on the rise.

If you listen to the left, it sounds like it, but the facts don't lie.

The new FBI data shows that crime in this country is down across the board.

In fact, this is the first time that crime has dropped in this matter

since Obama took the Oval office in 2008.

The murder rate has now dropped by 2%.

Violent crime went down by 1%.

Now, if you could just get the Democrats to condemn the violent left, the groups like Antifa, I think the crime rate might go down even further, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

Tip number three, that they do not want you talking about.

The left has called everybody on the right a fascist, a race baiter.

They keep talking about dog whistles.

This is contrary to American values and principles.

I don't think they have any ground to stand on when they fail to condemn people like Antifa and Louis Farrakhan.

But in many cases, they actually support these people.

In the case of Farrakhan, the leaders of the biggest resistance, hashtag resistance,

the social justice organizers, the women's march, have ties to Louis Farrakhan.

Obama has now been caught

taking candid photos with him.

Representatives Keith Ellison, Barbara Lee of California, Maxine Waters, Danny Davis in Illinois, Andre Carson in Indiana, Gregory Meeks in New York, and Al Green in Texas.

They all have ties to Louis Farrakhan.

This is not a guy that preaches peace.

This is not a guy that says, hey, let's get together with the Jews.

This is an anti-Semite.

He is a raging racist and a raging anti-Semite.

He advocates violence.

He was just in Iran on Sunday leading Death to America chance, and many people in the Democratic Party were standing with him recently at speeches.

I don't mean the

funeral of Aretha Franklin, where they made all kinds of excuses why they would stand next to this man.

I'm talking about his actual anti-Semitic speeches.

The left actually has the ball to say anyone at all is inferior to them when it comes to American ideals.

Really?

There's a lot more I could add to this list, but these three alone, in a more rational time, would be enough to guarantee, or practically guarantee, an Election Day landslide.

I'm not saying that these facts are comfortable for our friends on the left, but they are indisputable.

The best of the Glenn Beck program.

Today is a day you've got to go out and vote.

And let me give you a little encouragement from Lindsey Graham.

I mean, what?

The unexpected hero in the hurricane-like nightmare that has been the last six months.

Yesterday, he was on Fox and Friends, and here he is with a rallying cry to guide through the storm.

What's your message, Senator, going forward?

Here's what he said.

To remind people what happened to Brett Kavanaugh, that the Democrats will do anything to win.

They do not accept the fact that President Trump won.

Talk about the caravan and the growing economy and get our vote out.

I've never seen Republicans more united than I do now.

I think we're going to kick butt in the Senate, and the House is too close to call.

And the last 30 days has been a nightmare for Trump state Democrats.

Powerful words and words worth remembering.

Did you see that guy came out

and said, hey, by the way, I think I was the guy that Blasey Ford was talking about.

You see this?

He just came out and said, it was consensual, at least I thought it was.

He said, but she was wearing a swimsuit.

We were at the house that she kind of described.

It was within walking distance.

It's exactly the same.

And her friend jumped on me.

And I thought we were all joking, but apparently not.

I mean, sounds exactly like it.

That was in the Senate report.

Yeah.

Interesting.

Nobody really seems to care.

And if you don't think they'll do anything to win, you gotta have your head examined.

The chaos of the media's prediction and outrage, to forget, we forget that there is a proper way to respond to this, a democratic way.

And today is that day.

The leftists have made a show of their feelings, their unbridled outrage.

They're willing to take to the streets with firebombs on the extreme left.

We have to remember that the democratic response, the only truly meaningful way

to respond, is by voting.

Linda Sarseur and her gang of provocateurs can interrupt a hundred more Supreme Court nomination hearings, but they will never accomplish as much as one person who votes.

I'm not against freedom of speech.

I'm not against, in fact, I'm for freedom of speech.

I'm for your right to peacefully assemble.

But what we've seen over the past two years, since the exact moment that Donald Trump was elected, is a sorry excuse for freedom of speech.

It's often driven by a desire to do away with free speech as we know it.

What's happening on our campuses should frighten every single person in America, left and right, I'm sorry, Democrat and Republican, to the core.

Left,

left.

That's what they want.

We should not equate words with violence.

Violence deserves, sometimes, it's the only way that you can curb it and stop it, is a

violent response.

But that's

the police's job, if they'll do it anymore.

Hello, Portland.

This is our moment.

If you want to see the world go the way of Portland,

stay at home today.

Don't vote.

Many times before we let the Democratic process run its course,

and the results will speak for themselves.

At the moment, we're in the last threads of the game, unsure if the Hail Mary is going to land.

I don't know what's about to happen.

But whatever the result to night,

tomorrow

is different.

Tomorrow the course has changed one direction or the other.

Whichever direction that is, we need to move forward with class, peace, and dignity.

It's Tuesday, November 6th.

This is the Glenbeck program.

You know,

what's amazing, Stu, to me is that,

I mean, Nancy Pelosi said, you know, we're ready to throw a punch.

We're ready to throw a punch.

I mean,

I just think the world is

not ready for what the Democrats.

And when I say this, I want to make sure that people understand.

When I say the Democrats, I mean the Democrats in Washington that have sold their soul to the Uber left.

I mean, when you have Linda Sarsour

and Keith Ellison, who worked for Louis Varracon, when you have them running the DNC and the women's march, and they're accepted by the mainstream media and by the mainstream Democratic Party, you have problems.

Let me play Louis Farrakhan

just this weekend in Iran.

Listen.

Is it not true

that you have called America the Great Satan?

Well, if you believe what you say,

then would not Satan

be actively involved in trying to destroy a nation that is set up on the belief and practice of submission to the will of God?

So we should not be surprised

at what Satan does to ill-affect the righteous.

All that your elders have sacrificed will mean nothing if you do not pick up the revolution and carry it forward.

America is making it very hard for Iran to successfully carry out its mission.

But if

you have the strength to persevere

under these hard trials,

the victory will be yours.

This is unbelievable.

And the media today is talking about Donald Trump's rhetoric.

This is this is what you

I think this is what people miss.

When Donald Trump said last night he wants to he wishes he could tone it down.

Play that cut, please.

This is him with NBC.

Is there anything as you look back at your first almost two years that you regret that you wish on you that you could just take back and redo?

i would say tone uh i would like to have a much softer tone i feel to a certain extent i have no choice but i do and maybe i could have been softer from that standpoint but i want to get things done

he said that he doesn't feel he has a choice and a lot of people don't feel like they have a choice we all do of course

But this is this is the one thing that I would like Democrats to hear and I would like Republicans to hear it as well.

Donald Trump is a response

to what the left and the media has been shoveling for the last,

I don't even know, 20 years, at least the last 10, 20, 30 years.

Just been shoveling it and shoveling it and stoking the fire and stoking the fire and throw more coal on the fire.

Here's a log.

They've just been stoking this fire.

And Donald Trump won because people felt there's no one fighting for me.

Now you say, well, he's a demagogue.

He's a, well, that's what happens.

This is what I warned the left of during the Obama administration.

Don't do this.

Don't you see what you're doing?

Don't you see that you are disenfranchising so many people?

It's why I do want the Republicans to hear this because it's going to turn around as well.

What do you think they're going to do?

Now, it's easier for them to do it.

Again, this is coming from a conservative perspective.

But I feel it is far easier for them to do it because the left historically

is the trouble in America.

The left historically has always been the ones who riot, the ones that bomb, the ones that kill and maim.

Historically, at least in the last 150 years, that's who's caused most of the big problems.

You're seeing it on the streets with ANAFA.

And that's just going to get worse and worse and worse because the media fails to recognize it.

You start electing some of these democratic socialists and the states.

I mean,

I hope that I would like to talk to people from Florida.

What the hell is going on with Florida?

What are you doing?

Gillum, what are you doing?

You want to see the effects of a Democratic socialist in office.

Well, all you have to do is look to Portland.

That's what that looks like.

I don't want to live in Portland, and I don't know any Democrats that want to live in Portland.

And Portland's a great city, but it's

out of control.

It's a little bit of a part right now.

It's out of control by Antifa and other groups.

And, you know, Florida, too,

it's had such a good run.

Things are going so well.

You have not only

bring in a Democratic socialist to be governor, the guy who was governor through all the success is running in the Senate and is a slight underdog right now.

What happened?

What happened to you, Florida?

What are you going through?

It doesn't make any sense.

What is happening in Florida?

Let me take some of the calls here.

We'll take a few of the calls at 888-727-BECK.

By the way, our coverage begins tonight on the Blaze Television and Radio Network at 6 p.m.

Everybody's going to be in.

We have all kinds of guests that you're going to want to see and hear their opinion.

Bill O'Reilly is going to be joining us.

Several people, so join us.

John, West Virginia.

Hello, John.

Hi.

I live pretty close to Pittsburgh, and most of the country doesn't know where West Virginia is.

The only thing they know about West Virginia is maybe Cole, Joe Manchin, and WVU Mountaineers is why I didn't come up to see you in Pittsburgh because they were playing.

But

when we have somebody on the national stage like Manchin or Bird, it seems like people in this state will keep them in power because it empowers us throughout the rest of the country.

They do.

come here for Trump.

Trump came to Wheeling, West Virginia, and there was a huge crowd.

There was like a dozen protesters.

They're huge for Trump, but they're local for like the Congress.

Now, so, you know, my statement was earlier that it is, that there is this blue heritage there, especially with the unions and coal and everything else.

Is that accurate at all anymore?

No, it's not.

When Hillary and Obama was trying to kill coal, it really.

That ended it all.

And it hasn't lingered at all.

No, it has not lingered at all.

Okay, good.

All right.

And I've met Joe Mansion before, and he's a very likable guy,

very personable.

And then you have Morrissey come in, who looks like the geeky Pillsbury Doughboy.

No offense, Blan.

I mean, I don't know why he needed to turn ugly on me.

But anyways,

Joe played the rope dope and just let Morrissey put out out his ads.

And then at the ninth hour, he came out with his ads, calling Morrissey a carpetbagger, and that he was a lobbyist for the opioids, which is a huge problem in this state.

And I think it's resonating because I know family members that are die-hard Trumpists who were going to vote for Morrissey, and now they're switching back over to Joe.

John, thank you so much for your phone call from West Virginia.

I'd like to hear from Missouri.

I'd like to hear from Arizona.

What the hell is

Mick Sally?

Mick Sally

is

tight

with cinema.

Cinema is, first of all, her name, it should remind you of Hollywood in the movies.

Cinema is damn near insane.

Well, yeah.

I mean, the things she said about Arizona are really bad, but also

that would bother me less.

I mean, she's trying to, maybe trying to be funny or whatever.

I could deal with that.

What I couldn't deal with is her being,

you know, on doing a show with a 9-11 truther and

being essentially a code pink level activist.

Now she's now moderated, of course.

That wasn't her.

No, no, no.

This is the best of the Glenn Beck program, and we really want to thank you for listening.

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This is the company that Stu, I think, found

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Obviously, thank God they're not criminals.

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I'm going to talk to the people of Arizona here for a second about cinema.

This is a woman who is running who is a hardcore leftist.

I mean, she is a code pink leftist.

It's incredible to me that people are listening to her.

Now,

it's working for her because she's saying, you know what?

Yes, I used to be radical, but I'm not anymore.

I'm not.

I think immigration is our biggest problem, and we've got to stop these.

Excuse me?

What?

A hardcore leftist?

A code pink activist?

She's moderating to be able to get in.

Same thing the Democratic Party is doing.

Hey, we have a big tent.

If you're pro-life, that's fine.

You're welcome.

No, you're not.

No, you're not.

You're welcome today,

but as soon as the election's over, you're not welcome.

Now, let me show you the difference between her and Donald Trump.

Donald Trump, my problem with Donald Trump at the beginning on his policies, was I didn't believe he would do any of this stuff.

He was a New York liberal and had lived his life the whole time.

He says, no, no, no, I've changed.

I didn't believe he had changed.

I changed.

Well, he has obviously changed.

And he's doing almost everything as a conservative, with an exception of things that he has a long record of, and he said he was going to do anyway, which was the tariffs.

But everything else,

he's starting to be the president, or he came in office being the president.

He said he would be.

I thought when he said a few years ago, you know what, the Republicans are stupid.

I'll just run as a Democrat, but I'm going to run as a Republican because they're just stupid.

He said something like that.

He didn't say that?

No, that's been passed around for a while.

I mean, he certainly bounced back and forth between the parties.

Right, right, right, right.

But my thought on this is his problem was not with the Republican people.

His problem was with the party.

And the party is all over the map and stupid.

And

he is connected with the people and the conservative American way of the people.

That's, I think, perhaps always been him.

And the people, when he said last night, you know, I didn't do this.

We did this together.

This is both of us.

I believe that from him.

Cinema is

just moderating her

position to become elected.

You don't go from a Code Pink activist to a moderate.

You just don't.

And if so, I want to hear that story.

And if so, how come Code Pink is not out against her?

Right.

That's an interesting point.

Yeah, I mean, you know, that one is so overtly terrible.

I mean, she is just so overtly against, you know, the typical way you'd think of Arizona.

I mean, Arizona's been a red state, you know, for a while.

You know, it's had its Maverick elements, as John McKinnon knows I could point out about himself.

But it was a situation where, you know, this should not be...

You don't think you're going to do very well with a hard left candidate.

A good example of this is the governor race, which is the same situation.

They have a very hard right candidate, or hard left candidate that has no chance of winning, which is exactly how this race should look.

So, I want to show you what I think the Democrat, excuse me, what the Democrats are going to learn, excuse me,

what they're going to learn from tonight's election,

because

Gillam probably is going to win, and there's going to be a few people like that.

Very, very close.

He's the favorite right now.

Betto is going to do better than anyone in Texas should have done.

And I'll I'll tell you what this is going to teach the Democrats.

And

you should be wary of it, but you should definitely be aware.

This is the best of the Glenn Beck program.

Let me go to Tracy, who just left a Starbucks here in Texas.

Tracy.

Good morning, Glenn, and happy election day.

Thank you.

I was born and raised in Mount Vernon, Skagit County, so I just wanted to drop that in and

my parents in Cedral Woolley.

Hi, Mom.

I love you.

So, anyways, I've lived in Texas now 30 years.

I'm a former ICE agent.

And I was in my local Starbucks in Grand Prairie this morning, and there was a lady in there that was wearing, she was was full of Beto Rourke buttons.

She was passing out stickers and I guess trying to get people to take them to vote.

She had a computer and she practically crammed these stickers down my throat.

And so I called Starbucks Corporate shortly after that, about an hour ago, to see if they had approved or sanctioned this.

And they said that they couldn't even comment that each store manager sets their own policies.

And so I asked, well, what if someone wanted to hold a Ku Klux Klan rally?

Would they be okay with that?

And he said, yes.

I just don't think they should be endorsing a candidate or forcing that on their customers.

It's kind of annoying.

And I voted early.

I voted for Cruz, and I would be saying the same thing if they were in there passing out Ted Cruz bumper stickers.

Well, I will tell you this.

I will tell you this.

I doubt that's what Starbucks would do, of course, because we know that they shut their entire place down when somebody abided by the rules of the local Starbucks.

So it's absolutely not true.

However, if that's what Starbucks wants to do and say, then you vote with your feet.

Go get your coffee someplace else.

I mean,

I wouldn't like it if they were doing it for Cruz and Trump and everybody else.

I don't want my politics.

I don't want politics with my coffee.

I don't.

I don't want politics in my entire life.

I'd like it where I'm getting.

My politics from a political talk show or from a political meeting or at the poll when I'm going there to actually vote.

Not in every aspect of my life.

Thanks, Tracy.

I appreciate it.

That's crazy, isn't it?

I have long had this theory that, and it's actually not mine, it's DARPA.

DARPA got into a lot of trouble right after 2001 because they said we should do a predicted market, a predictive market for terror attacks.

And we'll have all of the terrorist organizations, not terrorist organizations, sorry, all the anti-terrorist organizations around the world actually put money into a predictive market and say, we think this is where it's going to go.

This is the next terror strike.

And they thought that was the best way to predict it.

And I think they were right.

Because of political correctness, we didn't do it.

But I think it was right.

Polling is very, very difficult.

Now, the polls got it pretty correct last time.

Yeah, there was definitely some state-level errors.

The national polls were very close, actually, when you go look back and look at them.

People were fooled by that because they were looking at the Electoral College, which is something the poll wasn't exactly trying to predict.

But,

you know, obviously Donald Trump won the election, and most people didn't expect that.

In fact, I remember you could make

over five times your money betting on Donald Trump on election day.

Wow.

Like midday.

It was like, I remember two or three o'clock checking that.

It was like 5.5 to 1 you could have made on election day.

It was even wrong then.

And that was, yeah, and now that was like

one of these offshore gambling sites.

Predictit is a website that's different than that.

It's trying to get data

and kind of test your theory, I think, is what they're doing.

It's a fascinating site, and Flip Pidot is with us.

He's from Predictit.org.

Predictit.org.

And on Election Day, I'm sure it's one of the busiest days for you, Flip.

What are you seeing so far?

Yes, hi.

Thanks for having me.

It's a busy day on the site.

It looks to be the

highest volume day since Election Day 2016.

Might even surpass that.

But we're seeing, you know, we've got nearly 200 markets up just tied to today's contest.

So you can look at the traders' odds and

invest in outcomes for

every Senate race, most of the closed House races, the ultimate number of seats controlled by each party in each chamber.

And so you can really get not only

a purely financially driven,

and therefore one might expect more honest expectation of what's going to happen, but you can really look down at a very, very granular level and even see which races look to be the closest,

which are going to come down to the wire, and kind of make your own determinations about

what the real new balance of power is going to look like tomorrow.

And if you have a strong thesis, you can even earn some money doing so.

So, Flip, are you close enough to these numbers to be able to say

here are the ones that disagree with the polls.

Yes, in a few cases we can.

And aggregating from, for instance, across all of our Senate races, it looks like traders expect the most likely scenario to be Republicans picking up one or possibly two net seats.

So picking up in Missouri and Indiana,

which the statisticians are still calling slightly in favor of

the Democrats, whereas the traders are saying they think the Republicans manage to pick up

those two seats and lose only Nevada, which gives them the plus one and then with some possibility of picking up Ohio also, although that's a little bit of a farther reach.

But

overall,

the traders are giving,

let's see,

about a

13% chance that

that the Democrats do manage to capture the Senate.

Interestingly, they give

still well over a 30% chance that Republicans actually manage to keep the House, despite the fact that the expert prognosticators have been dwindling their chances on

that outcome down to the now single digits or low double digits.

So we see a real divergence here in terms of what people who are putting their money on the line expect.

They're still calling for the House to go to the Democrats, but by nowhere near the margins that the polls and pundits are saying

that it's locked up.

It still does appear to be very much in contention.

and whereas the the senate does appear to be more of uh you know more of a fait accompli for the republicans to hold or even slightly expand the majority what do you see in arizona

arizona we're currently uh traders are given 58 percent chance uh the republicans win there hmm it's interesting there's a couple of races like that because i noticed that in arizona there's and there's a couple of others where the the the The experts say it's a slight favorite for the Democrats, and Predicted seems to think there's a slight favorite for the Republicans.

Is there a pattern to that?

Are there more Republicans on the site?

What do you think?

There is a little bit of a pattern there.

Same thing we're seeing in Missouri.

The experts are saying

Democrats have a slight advantage.

We're actually got that at more like 60-40 against McCaskill.

And the same thing in Indiana, where we have that closer to a jump ball, but Braun slightly favored over Donnelly, which again is at odd odds, which is at odds with what the experts are saying.

So this might have something to do with the fact that

if you look historically,

the polling error, in particular on midterms, does tend to favor Democrats by a couple of points.

So

to the extent that the punditry is informed by the polling, despite the fact that there was a little bit of a systemic

polling error favoring Democrats in twenty sixteen as well,

it's yet to be seen whether that effect still exists.

Traders seem to be suggesting that they believe there is still

some measure of a systemic pro-Democratic polling edge that'll be washed out of it on Election Day and so that you'll see slightly better net Republican results.

And of course, with closely divided House and Senate, you know,

one or two points of systemic polling error can make the difference when it comes to who gets the gavels.

And to Stu's point, you know, are there more Republicans on Predicted?

That actually shouldn't be a problem, should it?

Because people

are not voting for what they want to happen.

They're actually putting their money down on the table for what they think is going to happen.

Right.

So in theory, that's right.

Presumably, one's financial incentive would outweigh their political bias.

But what we've actually found, interestingly, that because we looked a while back to see if Democrats or Republicans tended to do better in terms of their returns on

Predicted.

And we found that between Republicans and Democrats, they actually performed roughly evenly.

So to the extent people

can't get past their political biases even when their money is on the line, it should at least come out in the wash to some extent where one side's bias is outweighing the others.

We found, however, that really interestingly, independents or unaffiliated did better than both Republicans and Democrats.

So it does suggest that there is some, you know, some

unremovable political bias to your trading activity,

even when you should be able to separate the two and making decisions that are going to affect you financially.

But we did find that those independents were

somewhat anecdotally.

This is early on in the site when we ran this analysis, but it at least showed that by and large, independents tended to outperform partisans, at least mildly.

So, Flip, I'm fascinated with things that, yeah, I'm fascinated with creative destruction.

And I think you have the way of

the creative destruction for polls as they're taken now, as they're getting harder and harder to take.

And people, I'm not sure you can trust people, although they're not as wrong as everybody thinks they are.

And I was fascinated with DARPA's idea.

Do you remember that when they came out right after 99?

Yeah, they call it the TIA, the Total Information Awareness Program.

And I agree with you.

I think the idea was a good one, that if there's disparate information out there spread across the world, if you can synthesize all that information together in a predictive market, you ought to get better or at least a different

intelligence signal that

hopefully you can make useful decisions based on.

There are concerns, as you mentioned, some were about the optics of it.

I think some were also based on, you know, there were at least rumors at the time about various Middle Eastern entities shorting airline stocks and things like that before the events took place.

So I think there was some concern, too, that if if there was a mechanism out there by which someone could directly speculate on and make money from terrorist attacks, that it might actually introduce an incentive to

stake a position and then cause the event to happen.

But you guys are not doing this.

This is not a gambling site.

I mean, even though it kind of is.

I mean, you're putting your money down on the table and you're playing the odds.

But what is it you're trying to

do and to learn?

So we're trying to learn

as much as possible both about how predictive markets function, what makes them liquid, what makes them correct,

especially what factors make such markets more correct than the best signals that are currently out there, where the punditry, the statisticians, or the polling.

But we're also just trying to understand the

the market dynamics of how crowds aggregate and synthesize their collective wisdom into a single price signal

and to the extent

that's actually useful and actionable by those who consume the data.

So, Predicted

has research partnerships set up with dozens of universities that actively comb through and try and analyze this data to see if they do

yield better predictions.

And if so, if you can say anything interesting about which kinds of markets tend to do better

than others at kind of teasing out those hidden insights that might be scattered in all these disparate information sources.

And it's because of that

motive, right?

That's why it's sort of legal, right?

Like I think people would think that this is some offshore thing.

It's not, though.

You guys actually got approval from the government to do this, right?

That's correct.

The CFTC that regulates

these kind of markets generally issued no action relief to Predicted and the sponsoring university behind it to say basically if you if you do this with a predominant focus being on generating that kind of useful scientific and research data, and if you confine yourself to be within certain limitations to do with

the maximum size of position you can have in a given market or the total number of participants in a given market that sort of keep it to be a predominantly academic exercise,

then they offer this relief to say we're not going to treat you as though you're gambling or trading unregulated derivatives or anything like that.

So it's that approach that provides those protections both for the site and for the users and actually do keep it legal.

This

is the best of the Glenn Beck program.

I'm sure this is nothing.

And I feel a little like Orson Welles in 1929 with The War of the Worlds, but this is coming from NBC News

and Harvard researchers.

Scientists say mysterious object may be an alien spacecraft.

Harvard researchers have raised the possibility that this is a probe sent by some alien race.

Scientists have been puzzling over the

wamama or something ever since the mysterious space object was observed tumbling past the sun in late 2017.

Have you even heard of this?

No.

This is, I mean,

scientists have been talking about this for a while.

They're just mentioning like everybody's been talking about.

No, nobody's been talking about it.

We've been talking about stupid tweets.

Given its high speed and its unusual trajectory, the reddish stadium size, whatever it is, had clearly come from outside our solar system.

But its flattened, elongated shape and the way it accelerated on its way through the solar system set it apart from conventional asteroids and comets.

It kind of looks, Stu thinks it looks like a stick.

I think we're just seeing the side, and it looks to me a little like the

Millennium Falcon.

Now, a pair of Harvard researchers are raising the possibility that it is an alien spacecraft.

As they say in a paper to be published November 12th in the Astrophysical Journal Letters, the object, quote, may be fully operational as a probe sent intentionally to Earth's vicinity by an alien civilization.

Researchers are not claiming outright that aliens sent this, but after careful mathematical analysis of the way the interstellar object sped up as it shot past the Sun, they say it could be a spacecraft pushed through space by light falling on its surface or a light sail of artificial origin.

They have no guess on who might have sent it to us.

They said,

this is crazy.

They said, no one should blindly accept this hypothesis when there is also a more mundane explanation, namely it's a comet or an asteroid from afar.

Yeah, I would say that.

In science, we must ask ourselves, where is the evidence?

Not where is the lack of evidence, so I can fit it in a hypothesis that I like.

So those are two arguments that are against it, but apparently it's,

I mean, what else accelerates?

I mean,

what else would accelerate?

Asteroids don't.

I would assume this is why Harvard's saying it might be an alien spacecraft, right?

Yeah.

They have no other solution.

But I mean, you know, that is, of course, not proof, but it is interesting.

I mean, again, it's not just some guy saying it.

It's not just someone on some, you know, on Alex Jones saying he thinks it's an alien.

This is Harvard saying it.

They think it it might be an alien really bizarre isn't it very very strange and we don't know we don't know any of these candidates positions on the upcoming alien

we know Donald Trump's got to be against it or for it whichever the left decides they're for he's got to be the other side and it's wrong and racist no matter which side it is it will be wrong and racist he doesn't like little green men no because he doesn't want them coming here no they'd come with with vaporized guns And he'd be like, we should probably stop the vaporized guns.

And they would just attack Donald Trump.

We shouldn't be building walls.

We should be building bridges.

But they're shooting our people with we should be building little vaporizing guns to give to them.

We've been so bad to this planet.

We deserve to be vaporized.

I honestly would ask the alien if I could return with them.

Oh, man.

Can we please just leave here?

This isn't working.

We tried it.

It was, you know, we had a run.

We had a couple hundred years.

No, man cannot rule himself.

Let's try an alien race.

Maybe they can, maybe they can rule us.

I, for one, welcome our new alien overlords.

I think they're going to be fantastic.

They're going to

be crazy because I've been saying for years the only thing that could happen that would make this more crazy, and I don't think anybody would blink, is if all of a sudden an alien spacecraft appeared above Earth.

And here's a story from NBC News saying an alien spacecraft may be above Earth and no one's noticing it.

We're like, well, what's happening in Congressional District 21?

It's amazing.

Oh, my gosh.

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