Steve Sailer: BLM, Karens, Donald Trump, and What Democrats Don’t Want You to Know about DEI

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Speaker 5 Welcome to the Tucker Carlson Show. We bring you stories that have not been showcased anywhere else.
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Here's the episode. So I got to say,

Speaker 5 it's it's a little weird to be sitting across from you in my barn. I was thinking this morning,

Speaker 5 you're almost like Matt Drudge used to be. You know, everyone read the Drudge report starting in the 90s,

Speaker 5 but no one wanted to admit it in the news business, but everybody read it. But Drudge himself was this mysterious figure.
I actually knew him, sort of. I've never met you.

Speaker 5 Everybody I know on both sides has read you for years. You're not crazy.

Speaker 6 You're not a bigot.

Speaker 5 But somehow you became a sort of mysterious outlaw figure that no one was allowed to meet or talk to. Is it weird to be out in public?

Speaker 6 Yeah, it actually is.

Speaker 6 For 10 years from 2013 into 2023, you basically couldn't go see Steve Saylor give a speech anywhere.

Speaker 6 You know, I was being signed up for conferences.

Speaker 6 The last speech I gave in 2013 was an analysis of the Obama versus Romney exit polls. Didn't seem all that controversial to me,

Speaker 6 but for the next decade, every time

Speaker 6 I'd be invited to a conference, and about six weeks later, I'd get an email, you know, well, it turned out the SPLC or Media Matters went to the hotel and said that this is just deplorable.

Speaker 6 And you might find also that the local anti-FA, the black block guys,

Speaker 6 were thinking about protesting and how that can turn into violence and so forth. So they canceled their contract.

Speaker 6 So

Speaker 6 I just kept writing,

Speaker 6 but suddenly ice started to break up maybe last year. And this year, I've been...
doing traveling around the country and meeting people who've been reading me for years or just started reading me.

Speaker 6 It's a lot of fun.

Speaker 6 I appreciate it.

Speaker 5 It's just funny, though, because, you know, in a world where there are some wackos and there are people who advocate violence, you would seem to be maybe the last person who would scare people.

Speaker 5 I mean, you're effectively an informal academic, you're a social scientist, you're a numbers guy.

Speaker 6 Yeah, I'm kind of like Bill James, the baseball statistics analyst for the social sciences in the U.S. I've, like, for three years now, I've been

Speaker 6 raising a stink about, all right, what was the impact of Black Lives Matter on black lives?

Speaker 6 And as far as I can tell, it's got Black Lives Matter during the two eras of triumph after Ferguson in 2015-16, and then the big one during the Floyd effect, the racial reckoning of the 2020s.

Speaker 6 They've gotten an incremental 15 to 20,000 extra black lives murdered through

Speaker 6 incremental homicides versus the baseline, or just splattered on the pavement through increased traffic fatalities.

Speaker 5 So all killed by white cops?

Speaker 6 No.

Speaker 6 The vast majority of black shooting deaths is at the hands of other blacks.

Speaker 6 There was a, for example, in 2020, there was just an enormous explosion in mass shootings with at least four dead or wounded at black social events.

Speaker 6 This is, you know,

Speaker 6 we talk about mass shootings a lot, but as the New York Times did a big study in 2016 and concluded that almost 75%

Speaker 6 of the mass shootings with at least four victims wounded or killed take place in black-on-black

Speaker 6 events, typically Saturday night at the club or a funeral.

Speaker 6 Some of them are organized crime, very strategic, like in the TV show The Wire, but a lot is just one guy disses another guy and people pull out guns and start shooting. And

Speaker 6 yet that's very little interest to the Democratic establishment, the need for what I call point-of-use gun control.

Speaker 6 The Democrats tend to obsess over the need for point of

Speaker 6 sale gun control to keep rednecks out in the country from buying rifles, legally buying rifles at Walmart.

Speaker 6 And in truth, what we've seen,

Speaker 6 like in the 1990s into the 2010s in New York City, where

Speaker 6 people like Giuliani, Bloomberg, and Braddon did a great job of bringing down the murder rate, what really works is point-of-use gun control.

Speaker 6 You discourage low-life from packing their illegal handguns when they go out because they're more worried about the cops and getting caught carrying an illegal piece.

Speaker 6 So they leave it up in their grandmother's

Speaker 6 attic stuffed away. And the fewer people who are carrying guns on the streets in New York City, the

Speaker 6 less often they pull them out and start shooting, and you get this virtuous cycle. But

Speaker 6 nobody understands that. So

Speaker 6 during the Great Awokening of the last decade, and especially during

Speaker 6 what used to be called the racial reckoning before the whole George Floyd thing has pretty much gotten memory hold lately,

Speaker 6 just huge increases in black deaths by murder and by car crash.

Speaker 5 Okay, so coming back up, you said a bunch of different things I want to follow up on.

Speaker 5 But let's just start at the very beginning. You said the George Floyd thing has been effectively memory hold.

Speaker 6 Yeah. What was the George Flay?

Speaker 5 It's been almost exactly four years since that happened. Yeah.

Speaker 5 Memorial Day 2020

Speaker 5 with that, the benefit of, you know, some time to think about it. What was that?

Speaker 6 What was it?

Speaker 6 To a large extent, it didn't happen.

Speaker 6 The follow-on events,

Speaker 6 such as

Speaker 6 a huge increase in the murder rate,

Speaker 6 especially among blacks,

Speaker 6 the murder rate was 44%.

Speaker 6 More blacks were killed

Speaker 6 by homicide in 2021 than in 2019, the year before.

Speaker 6 And 39% more blacks died in car crashes in 2021 than in 2019.

Speaker 6 Yeah, it all ties together because

Speaker 6 when the establishment, as they did

Speaker 6 after George Floyd's death, said, okay, here's the biggest problem in America, even bigger than COVID for the moment, is that

Speaker 6 we impose too much law and order on African Americans. We are

Speaker 6 pulling them over for ticky-tack things like speeding and not having registration on their car and just driving badly. And then

Speaker 6 we're checking for

Speaker 6 outstanding criminal warrants and maybe searching for illegal handguns. This is all incredibly discriminatory.
So the cops went, oh, okay, you don't want us to do that?

Speaker 6 All right, we'll be in the donut shop.

Speaker 6 And so the number of traffic stops dropped way down. So people started driving worse.
They drove faster. And they started carrying illegal handguns more.

Speaker 6 And the number of shootings, the number of homicides just went through the roof just immediately. I can show week-by-week data from the Center for Disease Control.
It's pretty astonishing.

Speaker 5 Beginning with George Floyd's death in the press.

Speaker 6 Yes, I mean,

Speaker 6 the all-time most murderous day in the storied history of Chicago's murder narrative, you know, going back blowing away the St.

Speaker 6 Valentine's Day massacre by Al Capone and all that, was May 31st, 2020, six days after George Floyd's death, when 18 Chicagoans were murdered that day. Why?

Speaker 6 Pretty much because the cops went down to the magnificent mile to keep it from being torched and looted.

Speaker 6 And the word quickly got around that you can do anything you want in the neighborhood and nobody's going to notice. And so all sorts of vengeance was just taken on

Speaker 6 random people out out there for, you know, for personal reasons. And then it just went on and on for several more years.
Fortunately, last year or so, the murder rate started finally to come down.

Speaker 5 You don't think there's any, and you have the numbers, right?

Speaker 6 Can we see them? Yeah.

Speaker 5 You don't think there's any question that this was related to the Floyd story, to the Floyd events?

Speaker 6 Let's take a look.

Speaker 6 Let's take a look at the CDC's data

Speaker 6 weekly.

Speaker 6 All right.

Speaker 6 This is the Center for Disease Control collects data weekly on all the deaths in the United States. You can ask for any one particular thing.

Speaker 6 So this is weeks from 2018 into 2023.

Speaker 6 The blue line indicates the beginning of COVID lockdowns. The black line is George Floyd's death.
All right. The red line is the number of African Americans who died by homicide that week.

Speaker 6 So it's bouncing around. It has some seasonality.
In 2018, 2019, George Floyd dies, and suddenly, boom, it goes to this enormous peak and then just slowly fades over the next

Speaker 6 four years into 2008. But it's immediate.
It's the second George Floyd ODs.

Speaker 5 Yeah. People start shooting each other.

Speaker 6 Yeah, about

Speaker 6 probably by the Friday after he died on Memorial Day on Monday. It just,

Speaker 6 you know,

Speaker 6 there was just a giant cultural revolution.

Speaker 6 And basically, people lost fear of the cops because everybody, the establishment, the media, the politicians, were telling America that we have too much policing and too much law and order.

Speaker 6 And so we got a lot more murder.

Speaker 6 It's kind of ironic because the name of the movement was Black Lives Matter and it wound up getting an enormous number of Black Lives murdered incremental versus what you see in 2016.

Speaker 6 Boy, that's not even a close call.

Speaker 5 I mean, that is absolutely...

Speaker 6 Yeah. This is one of the biggest

Speaker 6 findings in the American social sciences,

Speaker 6 probably since

Speaker 6 Angus Deden and Case's finding in 2015 of deaths of despair and how the white working class's life expectancy was dropping in the early 21st century.

Speaker 6 The big part of it is that, oh, it also applies to motor vehicle accident deaths. So you could see this pretty consistent level.

Speaker 6 African Americans have traditionally been not bad drivers.

Speaker 6 They don't have the kind of problem with driving traditionally the way they had with homicide. But boom, a new plateau that's endured ever since.

Speaker 6 And to put this in a longer-term historical perspective,

Speaker 6 let me find

Speaker 6 graphs of the CDC data monthly going back to 1999

Speaker 6 through

Speaker 6 2021.

Speaker 6 These are homicide deaths as opposed to murders perpetrated. So these are the races of victims and blacks, Hispanics, whites in blue.

Speaker 6 You can see 9-11 there. That's what it is.
3,000 Americans die by homicide at the hands of

Speaker 6 al-Qaeda. Okay.
And then most years you've got, yeah, you've got more people get murdered in summer than in winter. They're out partying and so forth.
But it's pretty consistent.

Speaker 6 You can see an increase over here

Speaker 6 in

Speaker 6 the Ferguson effect after the Black Lives Matter emerges in 2014,

Speaker 6 which was a pretty decent year. And then all of a sudden

Speaker 6 murders go up dramatically in 2015-16. That helps get Trump elected.
You might remember how Black Lives Matter terrorists were assassinating cops in Dallas and Baton Rouge and so forth.

Speaker 6 Although that's really been memory hold.

Speaker 6 Anyway, Jeff Sessions came in,

Speaker 6 kind of told the police departments, no, you know, we're not going to persecute you for

Speaker 6 doing your jobs. All right.

Speaker 6 Then Trump got rid of Sessions.

Speaker 6 Maybe murder started going up a little more. And then comes 2020 and

Speaker 6 and the George Floyd racial reckoning. It's just enormous increase compared to anything else in the 21st century.

Speaker 6 Now, one reason we don't hear about this is because these graphs are kind of embarrassing because the black line of homicide death rate is so much higher than the

Speaker 6 light brown Hispanic line there. Hispanics actually in the 21st century have done a pretty good job of lowering

Speaker 6 their rate rate of being murdered.

Speaker 6 And finally, though, when the racial reckoning came along, it got worse again. So we're losing a bunch of that progress.
The blue line is the white line down there.

Speaker 6 It's an order of magnitude below the black line. And it's considered really bad taste to notice

Speaker 6 differences in the homicide rate.

Speaker 6 The other thing, but I point out is motor vehicle deaths. Motor vehicle deaths per capita, this isn't per mile driven,

Speaker 6 weren't too bad, weren't, they didn't have big racial differences in the past.

Speaker 6 The whites in the blue line often had the worst. Blacks weren't bad.
Hispanics weren't good. But then after 2008, Hispanics actually got better.

Speaker 6 And the brown-Hispanic line is doing pretty good until the racial reckoning. But you can see the black line just went through the roof again compared to the rest of the 21st century.

Speaker 6 So what's happened is during the Great Awokening, during the era of Black Lives Matter,

Speaker 6 what we see is that deaths,

Speaker 6 two different kinds of deaths, homicides and car crashes, what I call deaths of exuberance in contrast to Case and Deden's deaths of despair,

Speaker 6 seem to be, have gotten highly correlated. When Black Lives Matter is winning,

Speaker 6 people, especially black Americans, die more deaths of exuberance until Black Lives Matter goes out of fashion again and the cops are allowed to like pull over bad drivers and check for illegal handguns.

Speaker 6 So does anybody know that? No,

Speaker 6 it's hardly caught on at all. I mean, part of the problem is because I discovered in 2021,

Speaker 6 then if you're a social scientist and you want to write a paper for an academic journal, it's kind of like either, well, either I cite Steve Saylor, but I might get canceled for citing this horrible crime thinker, or I don't cite him and then his followers on Twitter all get real mad at me for not citing him.

Speaker 6 Here's my view. Just go ahead, don't cite me.
Just get the word out there.

Speaker 6 It's more important that America know about how badly it's screwed up, how many tens of thousands of incremental Americans have died because

Speaker 6 America's elites get infatuated with Black Lives Matter now and then than it is for me to get publicity about it.

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Speaker 5 These numbers are pretty striking when you see them graphed out like this,

Speaker 5 but they comport with what you notice

Speaker 5 already. I mean, you sort of knew that when you have riots, people die.

Speaker 6 And a lot of the people who died were black, not all, however.

Speaker 5 But it was pretty obvious from day one that Black Lives Matter wasn't helping anybody, including and maybe especially black people. So like, what would be the motive?

Speaker 6 What's the motive?

Speaker 6 There were a lot of motives

Speaker 6 for Black Lives Matter. One was that America had gotten better

Speaker 6 after the 1990s, after the crack wars at policing,

Speaker 6 that

Speaker 6 the drugs that were driving crime were not particularly marketed to inner city blacks, the opioids, the oxycodone, and so forth.

Speaker 6 Even when the Mexican cartels started selling black tar heroin, they also focused, like the Sackler family, on like, you know, who are a bunch of people? If they drop dead, nobody's going to care.

Speaker 6 And that's like, eh, white people in small towns in Kentucky, that kind of stuff.

Speaker 6 So you had these

Speaker 6 big rise in deaths of despair.

Speaker 5 So you're saying you think that was

Speaker 5 the Sacklers and the Mexican drug cartels, morally equivalent, I would say, or close,

Speaker 5 targeted rural whites, Appalachian whites, for example, on purpose because they knew that nobody would care when they died?

Speaker 6 I mean, it's the theory of a good reporter named Sam Quinones, who's written a couple books on the evolution of the drug trade in this century,

Speaker 6 that

Speaker 6 the Mexican cartels had a strategy that,

Speaker 6 no,

Speaker 6 we don't want to sell to particularly shooty people near media capitals. We'll sell to people who will overdose and quiet and

Speaker 6 take small towns in the Ohio River Valley that nobody's going to care much about. And so,

Speaker 6 I mean, nobody paid any attention to this increase in the white working class death rate until just fortuitously in 2015, Angus Deden was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics.

Speaker 6 And a couple weeks later, he and his wife published this important paper saying, you know, if you look at the CDC data,

Speaker 6 life expectancy for white working class people without you know, without college degrees has been dropping in the 21st century. And it's not supposed to happen.

Speaker 6 And it seems to be overdoses on painkillers. It seems to be suicide.
It seems to be alcoholism, just deaths of despair.

Speaker 5 Aaron Powell, seven years into Obama.

Speaker 6 Yeah. Yeah, 15 years into

Speaker 6 when it started around 2000, when the Sackler families, Purdue Pharmaceuticals, started their big push for

Speaker 6 opioid prescriptions.

Speaker 5 But how would no one notice this, I wonder?

Speaker 6 You know, there's no organizations dedicated to the welfare of white working-class people.

Speaker 6 So the fact that they're dying in great numbers of novel causes, it basically relied on two academics and who said, wow, this is interesting.

Speaker 6 And one of them happened to win the Nobel Prize just before their paper came out.

Speaker 6 So people paid attention to their paper because, oh, yeah, I heard about Angus Deden and the Nobel Prize and the Nobel Prize last month.

Speaker 5 Well, that's kind of it, if I can ask you what it was,

Speaker 5 I think you're right, but it's sort of interesting. If you think about it, there are no organizations dedicated to the welfare of rural whites,

Speaker 5 but there are a lot of organizations dedicated to the welfare of a million other groups that are much smaller in number. Yeah.

Speaker 5 So, why aren't there any organizations dedicated to that?

Speaker 6 Yeah,

Speaker 6 a few people have tried to set up organizations that speak for white people

Speaker 6 the way that Al Sharpton speaks for black people and countless other organizations speak for Jewish people or Latinos and so forth and are highly respectable and are constantly quoted in the newspaper.

Speaker 6 You know,

Speaker 6 a bright, very gentlemanly fellow named Jared Taylor tried to do this for the last 30 years and, you know, he's still banned on Twitter at this point.

Speaker 6 America has a phobia about anybody speaking up for the emerging white minority.

Speaker 6 Everybody,

Speaker 6 the conventional wisdom is that whites are rapidly being turned into a minority, and that's a good thing.

Speaker 6 But we're not going to

Speaker 6 ever treat whites like the minority that they're becoming in multiple states across the country.

Speaker 6 We're going to treat them as the all-powerful, omnipotent, legacy majority who can be blamed for everything from now on.

Speaker 5 Trevor Burrus, Jr.: But that's,

Speaker 5 I certainly

Speaker 6 would see that.

Speaker 5 Well, I think that's absolutely right. But if their life expectancy is declining faster than anyone else's, and they are dying, then, I mean, it does seem

Speaker 5 a little odd to lie about that.

Speaker 5 I mean, what's the intent there?

Speaker 6 Nobody lied so much as

Speaker 6 they just wondered, why are you interested in this? What kind of sinister reason do you have

Speaker 6 for worrying about

Speaker 6 the hundred million working-class white people in the country who are generating these new problems and dropping dead from them and

Speaker 6 putting out the alarm about it

Speaker 6 is

Speaker 6 just considered some sort of white supremacist, white nationalist

Speaker 6 dog whistle that

Speaker 6 will lead to slavery and the Holocaust and all sorts of imaginings.

Speaker 6 And

Speaker 6 the other half of the white population wasn't suffering.

Speaker 6 the kind of people who don't have a bad back because they don't lift heavy things on the job, you know, they're not hooked on oxycodone or

Speaker 6 when prescriptions got tightened up, they didn't go over to Mexican heroin and then to fentanyl and so forth. So,

Speaker 6 you know, who cares?

Speaker 6 We're just talking about deplorables here.

Speaker 5 But, okay, I mean, I get, you know, everyone has preferences and a lot of people in Washington, New York, and L.A. don't like the voting patterns of the population you're describing.

Speaker 5 But they are human beings and Americans. And if they're going extinct or they're dying in huge numbers in any case,

Speaker 5 to ignore that or downplay it is evil, isn't it? Yeah.

Speaker 6 I mean,

Speaker 6 to my view, they are our fellow American citizens, as are African Americans.

Speaker 6 And so the fact that Black Lives Matter

Speaker 6 in this ironic,

Speaker 6 complete self-destructiveness brought about just historic changes in the number of black lives dying in kind of the opposite of

Speaker 6 the white working class deaths of exuberance that you could see it in the Ferguson effect in 2015-16 and now in the huge Floyd effect of the 2020s. I mean, we're talking

Speaker 6 something like an incremental 15 to 20,000 more blacks have died in those in car crashes and murders than if the baseline of a few years ago had been maintained. And that's just enormous.

Speaker 6 That's easily the black death rate. death total in Vietnam, maybe Vietnam and Korea put together.

Speaker 6 And people should be talking about that too, because African Americans are our our fellow American citizens. We ought to be like keeping an eye on them and

Speaker 6 not refraining from noticing just because it's embarrassing, just because

Speaker 6 elites,

Speaker 6 the propounders of the conventional wisdom,

Speaker 6 the respectable prestige press, academia,

Speaker 6 the Democratic Party, and so forth.

Speaker 6 they promoted all of this stuff.

Speaker 6 They took Black Lives Matter

Speaker 6 at face value and did very little investigation. I mean, basically,

Speaker 6 you weren't anymore allowed to ask the question: like, okay, blacks

Speaker 6 men tend to get shot by the police about two to three times as often as white men per capita.

Speaker 6 That's a big difference, but it's nowhere nowhere near as big a difference as

Speaker 6 blacks tend to get shot by each other about 10 times as much as whites get shot by each other.

Speaker 6 And probably blacks get shot by non-police whites, you know, dozens of times less often than they're shot by other blacks.

Speaker 6 You know,

Speaker 6 young black men in this country have

Speaker 6 an enormous homicide problem, a gun homicide problem.

Speaker 6 I looked up for

Speaker 6 young, for males aged 15 to 34, their death by gun homicide in 2022.

Speaker 6 And

Speaker 6 young black men died about 50, not 15, but 50 times more per capita by gunfire than young Asian men, 24 times more than young white men, and six times more than Hispanics.

Speaker 6 The

Speaker 6 Hispanics are fairly comparable in poverty rate and education and so forth,

Speaker 6 but they don't have anywhere near the kind of gun problem that African Americans have developed. And I think

Speaker 6 But is anybody out there asking young African Americans and telling them, you know, if you guys could not get your homicide rate down to the Hispanic level, if you could get it down halfway from where it is now to the Hispanic level, this country would be so much better off and race relations would be so much better.

Speaker 6 But, you know, you're not supposed to put crime statistics like that in the newspaper. It's just considered racist to mention all these governments.
It's obviously not,

Speaker 5 you know, it's reality is not racist you know um by definition i hope not

Speaker 6 right

Speaker 6 but again sorry to keep asking variations of the same question but what would be the motive in trying to hide something like that all right i my theory is that it it goes back to the grand strategy of the democratic party which uh

Speaker 6 is enthusiastically assisted by other forms of the establishment, such as the prestige press,

Speaker 6 academia,

Speaker 6 much of the corporate world as well.

Speaker 6 The Democrats have realized over the last few decades that

Speaker 6 America is becoming more diverse.

Speaker 6 Immigration is driving diversity,

Speaker 6 patterns of interracial marriage,

Speaker 6 more people who

Speaker 6 have some claim to be non-white.

Speaker 6 Also, there's the constant generation of new identities, such as in the last decade, transgenderism.

Speaker 6 So, as America becomes more diverse, the Democratic Party can profit by being the party of diversity, the party of the diverse, the party of people from the fringes of American society, the party of people that the Democrats would call the marginalized from the margins of American society.

Speaker 6 So you're talking about immigrants, you're talking about black church ladies, transgenders,

Speaker 6 Jews, Muslims, etc., etc.

Speaker 6 Now, the one problem with all this

Speaker 6 is

Speaker 6 that while

Speaker 6 it works pretty well on paper and the Democrats have managed to win the popular vote in seven of the last eight presidential elections.

Speaker 6 The problem is keeping this coalition of the fringes of the marginalized from turning on each other, from becoming a circular firing squad.

Speaker 5 Because a lot of the components have very little in common.

Speaker 6 Yeah, as we're seeing with Jews and Muslims right now, it's, you know, these people do not like each other. Do the black church ladies who were the steadfast Democrats,

Speaker 6 do they really get along that well with the gays, much less with the transgenders? Nah.

Speaker 6 Do the Asian immigrants have much in common with

Speaker 6 Hispanic immigrants? Nah, not really.

Speaker 6 It can go on and on.

Speaker 6 It's inherent in the Democrats' grand strategy to be the party of diversity, the party of the fringes of American society. So

Speaker 6 how can they unite their coalition of the margins? And the one strategy the Democrats have come up with is

Speaker 6 basically to foster

Speaker 6 racist animus against core Americans, people who uh you know basically are demographically somewhat like George Washington, Ben Franklin, John Adams, you know, that are, that are white, that are men, that are straight, maybe they own homes, maybe they're married, they have kids.

Speaker 6 So the

Speaker 6 and to make them the bad guys in the American narrative.

Speaker 6 And that's the only thing the Democrats and their colleagues in academia, et cetera, can think of to hold together this diverse coalition. So we've seen this enormous increase in

Speaker 6 just

Speaker 6 racist

Speaker 6 bigotry being expressed in

Speaker 6 the pages of the New York Times in this century, things that in the past would have been considered rather in poor taste and extremist.

Speaker 6 So the New York Times will, you know,

Speaker 6 has put in a lot of effort in recent years explaining the racist sexist slur of Karen as this anti-white woman

Speaker 6 racist

Speaker 6 slur to their millions of subscribers so that they know just the right time to use it and they make sure not to use it on any

Speaker 6 non-white Karen and so forth.

Speaker 6 You recently had on

Speaker 5 my impression is that most of the readership of the New York Times is Karen's.

Speaker 6 Yeah, I would think.

Speaker 5 What I mean by that is like screechy, fragile, barren NPR listing middle-aged lawyers.

Speaker 6 Yeah, that's

Speaker 6 in the modal subscriber, perhaps. And yeah, the

Speaker 6 you know, the New York Times is not the failing New York Times anymore.

Speaker 6 They've done a very good job of identifying people who will pay to subscribe to have their worldview vindicated over and over again and

Speaker 6 kind of for the Times to bury inconvenient facts that don't support their view of the world, you know, in the 27th paragraph or something like that.

Speaker 6 Um,

Speaker 6 so yeah, you recently had on Jeremy Carl, he's got a new book, The Unprotected Class, that documents at great length just this trend toward ever more

Speaker 6 anti-white racism in the respectable press and in media and the Democratic speeches and so forth.

Speaker 6 And, you know, it's finally starting to

Speaker 6 backfire on Democrats. People are starting to notice just

Speaker 6 how much awful stuff is said

Speaker 6 about kind of the core Americans that tend to vote Republican.

Speaker 6 So, I don't know. I mean,

Speaker 6 have you been seeing this just over the last 10 years? Just huge increases and

Speaker 6 putting down white people.

Speaker 5 Have I noticed it? It's one of the defining facts of American society, and it's always perpetrated by people who are simultaneously in the same sentence giving you a lecture about racism. Yes.

Speaker 5 Shut up, white man. You're evil for being white and racist.

Speaker 6 Huh?

Speaker 5 There's so many, like the contradictions in that sentence are so inherent that it's hard to believe anyone could utter it. But no, of course I noticed that.

Speaker 5 And I guess what I'm really struck by, and I don't know the answer, is why people put up with it.

Speaker 5 So at that point, it's like, well, you know, like, if you're attacking my children for their skin color, then I get my gun, right? But nobody does get his gun. They just sort of sit there and okay.

Speaker 6 Yeah. You can't say anything.

Speaker 5 Like, why? I don't,

Speaker 5 why would anyone ever put up with that?

Speaker 6 I mean, white Americans go out of their way, not

Speaker 6 to

Speaker 6 just go, oh, yes, I hear what you're saying about how the evils of whiteness and

Speaker 6 my children are children of whiteness and

Speaker 6 they have oppressed the world.

Speaker 6 And I've actually thought about that.

Speaker 6 And while that may sound like just lowbrow racist bigotry on your part, it actually has a really impressive intellectual heritage going back to the Frankfurt School and Gram she

Speaker 6 and updated by,

Speaker 6 you know, in the critical race theory by Marcuse.

Speaker 6 And people will go on and on about,

Speaker 6 you know, what you're saying isn't as moronic as it sounds and hate-filled bigotry.

Speaker 6 It's actually, you're getting this and it all goes back to Marxism

Speaker 6 or Foucault or something like that.

Speaker 6 So, yeah, Republicans, whites have been reluctant to

Speaker 6 call out just anti-white racism for what it is.

Speaker 5 But why is that? I mean, clearly something

Speaker 5 is broken inside, right? I mean, like, why would you put up with an attack that's

Speaker 5 inherently unreasonable, right? You don't choose your race, therefore, you probably shouldn't attack someone on the basis of his race.

Speaker 5 It's totally anti-American, as defined by consensus over the last 60 years. That's one thing we're not allowed to do, and yet it's done at a greater scale now than during the Jim Crow period.

Speaker 5 So, like, why would you even consider putting up with that? There must be something wrong with you. Like, you hate yourself, obviously.

Speaker 6 Yeah.

Speaker 6 Republicans, they

Speaker 6 Republicans like

Speaker 6 other races, and good for them.

Speaker 6 And yeah, they want to blame

Speaker 6 the tendency that's been growing, especially in the Black Lives Matter era of the last decade, to just say the most bigoted things.

Speaker 6 They want to blame it on something old like Marxism.

Speaker 6 This isn't what African Americans want to say. You know,

Speaker 6 my son's friends on his high school football team,

Speaker 6 they're not bigoted racists. And the truth is, yeah, a lot of them aren't.
I mean, a lot of this stuff is coming out of colleges and so forth.

Speaker 6 It's kind of soft degree majors and so on. But,

Speaker 6 you know,

Speaker 6 taking claims to have some deep intellectual heritage

Speaker 6 is naive.

Speaker 6 It's just people with

Speaker 6 soft majors who got DEI sinecures and so forth and corporations and colleges, you know, just expressing their

Speaker 6 basic prejudices, their basic bigotry.

Speaker 6 And,

Speaker 6 you know, we should be laughing at it. We shouldn't be taking it that seriously.
We should be satirizing it and scorning it and making jokes about about it. And

Speaker 6 that could well get the message across.

Speaker 5 You may have come to the obvious conclusion that the real debate is not between Republican and Democrat or socialist and capitalist, right, left.

Speaker 5 The real battle is between people who are lying on purpose and people who are trying to tell you the truth. It's between good and evil.
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Speaker 5 And we hope we are on the former side. That's why we created this network, the Tucker Carlson Network.
And we invite you to subscribe to it. Go to tuckercarlson.com/slash podcast.

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Speaker 5 So, can I ask? I think a lot of people assume that when whites, who obviously founded the country, become a minority in the country their ancestors founded, that it'll stop.

Speaker 6 Whites will be the legacy majority. I mean, I'll give you an example.

Speaker 6 In 1955, a 14-year-old black child named Emmett Till was murdered for

Speaker 6 making

Speaker 6 a pretty

Speaker 6 aggressive pass toward a white woman in the South.

Speaker 5 All right. Married white woman in a store.

Speaker 6 Yeah, in a store. And then

Speaker 6 that was a big story at the time and helped lead to the civil rights era of the 1960s. And then it sort of faded from the newspapers.
The New York Times mentioned Emmett Till's name twice

Speaker 6 in 1980. In 2000, they were up to mentioning him four times.

Speaker 6 By,

Speaker 6 I think, 2018, they were mentioning him something like one and a half times a week,

Speaker 6 about as often as Chief Justice John Roberts named

Speaker 6 in the New York Times. It just became this huge breaking news story.

Speaker 6 And they, you know, I joke that they had a, you know, had a jet at LaGuardia fueled up, always ready to fly to anywhere to report on the latest Emmett Till news.

Speaker 6 All right. This kind of antiquarianism is increasing

Speaker 6 because, I mean, the truth for liberals is the liberals have been pretty much in charge of most things

Speaker 6 involving race for since the 1960s, and

Speaker 6 they haven't really accomplished that much. So they kind of want to hide their record and focus people on pre-civil rights

Speaker 6 antiquity, such as Emmett Till. Or you constantly hear these days about

Speaker 6 FDR's redlining of FHA loans in 1938 as the reason that black neighborhoods tend to have lower property values than

Speaker 6 white neighborhoods or Latino or Asian neighborhoods. And, you know, it couldn't have anything to do with current crime rates.
It couldn't have anything to do with

Speaker 6 discipline in the local schools. It's got to do with the nefarious plot of FDR

Speaker 6 almost 90 years ago.

Speaker 5 Why does no one, so often, you know,

Speaker 5 all these southern cities are famous

Speaker 5 in American culture for their association, you know, the Edmund Pettis Bridge, Selma, Alabama,

Speaker 5 the, you know, the trial in Wilmington. Oh, you know, there's like these moments in the civil rights era that people are still, as you pointed out, talking about Philadelphia, Mississippi.

Speaker 5 Why does no one ever go back? to those places, those physical places, and find out how they're doing.

Speaker 6 Yeah.

Speaker 6 Birmingham not doing that well.

Speaker 6 Selma not doing that well.

Speaker 6 Yeah. It's

Speaker 6 yeah,

Speaker 6 what then ends up is you then have, you end up getting a long lecture about how the construction of a freeway in 1958 destroyed the booming

Speaker 6 black Wall Street of Birmingham or whatever and all sorts of things like that.

Speaker 6 There's a large number of

Speaker 6 pre-canned excuses.

Speaker 5 But is there any effort to actually improve the lives of black people that you're aware of?

Speaker 6 I mean,

Speaker 6 what does improve the lives of black people?

Speaker 6 Basically, having some law and order, keeping people from carrying guns on the street.

Speaker 6 That's probably done quite a bit of good.

Speaker 6 Basically,

Speaker 6 the parts of of the country that are run

Speaker 6 by Republicans tend to have somewhat better performing

Speaker 6 black

Speaker 6 students in schools and so forth. For example,

Speaker 6 Frisco, Texas, a fast-growing exurb of Dallas, has the smallest test score gap of any school district in the country.

Speaker 6 It has the highest, it's about 11% black and 20% Hispanic, and it has the highest black and Hispanic test scores in the United States. Really? And the smallest white-black gap in the country.

Speaker 6 And, you know, other places,

Speaker 6 the great liberal cities like San Francisco and Madison, Wisconsin,

Speaker 6 tend to have bigger

Speaker 6 gaps, not just because they have a lot of smart white people living there, but

Speaker 6 they do a lousier job in San Francisco educating blacks

Speaker 6 because, you know, it's such a liberal, progressive environment that they do a poor job of doing things like having well-disciplined schools and focusing on basics and so forth.

Speaker 6 So, yeah, there's a general, I mean, there's been a general trend toward blacks who

Speaker 6 have some choices in life, who are looking to get ahead, looking to do good things for their their kids to be moving to the south to texas to red states and so forth where you know they can

Speaker 6 um

Speaker 6 and away from

Speaker 6 the highly liberal parts of the country it's it's not a panacea but yeah it does some good at the at the margin

Speaker 5 where are we on the continuum? In other words, if the graphs that you showed the four years after the Floyd verdict or Floyd death,

Speaker 5 if you extended those, if you doubled them, what would they look like? Where are we now?

Speaker 6 We're hopefully past the worst of the racial reckoning.

Speaker 6 What I've noticed in the newspapers was that the front section around a few months before the 2022 election seemed to get the word from

Speaker 6 maybe the bite in the White House that like, you know, this whole George Floyd racial reckoning thing, that's not going to be a big vote winner in the 2022 midterms, especially in the New York City area.

Speaker 6 So let's go easy on it. Let's not talk about it all the time.
Maybe it wasn't such a good idea.

Speaker 6 And then it just sort of disappeared from the serious news part of the paper. In the cultural section in the back,

Speaker 6 they never got the memo, so there's constantly discussions about how, okay,

Speaker 6 in a great leap forward for equity at the Art Institute of Chicago, they fired all the nice white lady docents who work for free giving tours of the great artwork so they can hire

Speaker 6 people of color. to

Speaker 6 then pay them to work there and stuff like that.

Speaker 6 And you kept hearing all those kind of stories going on much longer about the wonders of the racial reckoning because, you know, they hadn't gotten the message.

Speaker 6 But, yeah, probably the Biden administration

Speaker 6 engaging in benign neglect about like, yeah, let's not

Speaker 6 persecute police departments quite as hard as we were.

Speaker 6 has probably done some good about getting the cops out of the donut shop and actually pulling over, you know, people driving 100 miles an hour

Speaker 6 and

Speaker 6 so yeah that's that's made some progress but it took the it took the hispanics a while longer to get the get the word that the cops weren't being proactive and so their car crash and murder rates have gone way up and you know it's it's

Speaker 6 even if things are getting better now, they're going to take a number of years to get back to where we were in 2019, much less where we were before Ferguson in 2014.

Speaker 6 The death rate is still up like in these deaths of exuberance, like 30 to 40 percent over 2014.

Speaker 5 And way up over the non-black average. So

Speaker 5 the obvious question is like, why? And it's been going on a long time.

Speaker 5 Has there ever been a serious effort made in good faith to figure out why rates of violence among in black areas are so much higher which they are and have always been but why yeah people people have been studying it

Speaker 6 for

Speaker 6 the longest time

Speaker 6 uh you know time magazine ran an article in the late 50s about the the biggest worry of big city mayors is the growing problem of black crime

Speaker 6 You know, at this point,

Speaker 6 cities have done, you know, we went through a bunch of phases. We liberalized the country in the 60s and the war in court years.

Speaker 6 We cut the

Speaker 6 imprisonment times and so forth. And that wound up doubling the per capita murder rate in the 60s and 70s.

Speaker 6 It doubled? Yeah. It was by 1980, it was twice what it was in 1961 per capita.

Speaker 6 That's a lot of dead people. Yeah, that's a lot of dead people.

Speaker 6 And it

Speaker 6 did horrors to American urban life. People fled to the suburbs.

Speaker 6 They're all now denounced as these villains who engaged in white flight. But, you know, like

Speaker 6 my wife's family lived in the Austin neighborhood in the west side of Chicago. And

Speaker 6 when it started to integrate, they joined a liberal Catholic group and said, okay, we're all going to stick it out and

Speaker 6 make make integration work, and we're not going to flee to the suburbs. And

Speaker 6 my in-laws stuck it out three years longer than the rest of the members of the club did. But by that point, the number of felonies against their children was piling up.

Speaker 6 And so they finally sold out at a

Speaker 6 loss of like half of what they could have gotten for their house if they'd sold it three years before.

Speaker 6 Tens of millions of people. Did that change their views? What a tragedy for them.

Speaker 5 Yeah.

Speaker 6 My late father-in-law was the tuba player for the Chicago lyric opera.

Speaker 6 So he ended up buying a farm 63 miles out of town and then commuting to work to play the tuba in the opera house downtown.

Speaker 6 Yeah, it was kind of a disaster for them. And, you know, there's tens of millions of Americans who are still alive who can tell these stories

Speaker 6 of what actually happened.

Speaker 6 And the media is not that interested in hearing them.

Speaker 6 You know, the media wants to portray these people as the bad guys who, because of their bigotry and not because of all the felonies against their children,

Speaker 6 moved out to the suburbs.

Speaker 6 Interestingly, right across the street from where my

Speaker 6 in-laws lived is the municipality of Oak Park, Illinois, a suburb that Ernest Hemingway supposedly said was the land of broad lawns and narrow mines, but it's really nice, has all this great Frank Lloyd Wright architecture.

Speaker 6 They actually did something really intelligent and really illegal in the 1970s, which was they put a racial quota on real estate agents.

Speaker 6 It was called the Black-a-Block Club, and said, no, you can't make a huge fast windfall by terrifying everybody into selling right now

Speaker 6 because the whole block is going to tip black.

Speaker 6 We're going to do this in an orderly fashion and we're going to use a racial quota. And

Speaker 6 it worked. It kept

Speaker 6 Oak Park from going all black the way the Austin neighborhood next door has gone. And Austin just is bleak.
It's kind of post-apocalyptic looking now.

Speaker 6 Oak Park looks kind of like this gay utopia for older gay couples who like fixing up beautiful Frank Lloyd Wright houses.

Speaker 6 So,

Speaker 6 you know,

Speaker 6 liberals did some things to protect themselves, but they just didn't tell anybody about it.

Speaker 5 Was anyone ever held responsible for any of this?

Speaker 6 You know,

Speaker 6 if you read the press,

Speaker 6 yeah, there's been huge condemnation of all the

Speaker 6 white families that fled crime, as that they're engaging in white flight.

Speaker 6 And if their grandchildren move back to the city because the crime has come down a little, then they're engaging in the great crime of gentrification.

Speaker 6 You know, it's it's kind of you can't win,

Speaker 6 you know,

Speaker 6 either way you lose.

Speaker 6 You know,

Speaker 6 there's all sorts of talk.

Speaker 6 You know, Mayor Pete and the Transportation Department's always denouncing racist roads, that building highways was destroying black neighborhoods and so forth.

Speaker 6 You know,

Speaker 6 we've rewritten the past over and over again.

Speaker 6 So we don't learn anything from it because

Speaker 6 we just specify a few important,

Speaker 6 a few things that fit this narrative that everybody has now.

Speaker 6 So, you know, we'll see. I mean, the obvious goal is

Speaker 6 what they call equity. And the term equity is

Speaker 6 one of those where it's... It's not a secret what the DEI people want when they specify equity.

Speaker 6 What they're talking about, when they're talking about equity and generational wealth and so forth, is they want your equity in your home and they want to tax it away and take it as reparations and spend it on themselves.

Speaker 6 And

Speaker 6 that's kind of the bottom line. Whether that'll get carried out, I don't know.

Speaker 6 We've seen reparation programs start to put out checks in super liberal places like Evanston, Illinois.

Speaker 6 Even in California, the idea of handing out huge checks to black people for the horrors of living in California

Speaker 6 didn't go that well.

Speaker 5 Well, you have too large a Hispanic population.

Speaker 6 Yeah.

Speaker 5 But can I ask, how exactly would

Speaker 5 the DEI community steal the equity out of your home?

Speaker 6 Well,

Speaker 6 I mean, one start has been to reopen ancient history,

Speaker 6 what do you call it when the government condemns your property and sells it and buys it for what it thinks it's worth

Speaker 6 we've we've seen cases eminent domain yeah eminent domain cases from a century ago we saw

Speaker 6 uh so if you if if you're black and you happen to have a family legend that we used to own this really nice piece of property but then it got eminently domained to make into a park that that was racist and we should get that property back.

Speaker 6 So

Speaker 6 the descendants of a black family in Manhattan Beach recently, who

Speaker 6 Manhattan Beach had

Speaker 6 condemned their property and a few other and some white neighbors of theirs to build a park.

Speaker 6 And they recently got the city council to declare that that was racist in 1928.

Speaker 6 And that if it wasn't for this, they no doubt would have held on to the property through the depression, through everything that's happened ever since.

Speaker 6 They would have scrimped and saved to hold on to that land next to the beach, which is now worth $20 million.

Speaker 6 So they got a check for $20 million

Speaker 6 for that.

Speaker 6 You'll see... you know, this is a general trend that's speeding up as,

Speaker 6 you know, plaintiffs' attorneys are looking for these old cases. And it's not like they can relitigate the case because there's nobody alive that remembers, that can testify or anything like that.

Speaker 6 So

Speaker 6 there'll be lots of attempts like that to

Speaker 6 basically hand out large amounts of money.

Speaker 6 Maybe it won't be called reparations,

Speaker 6 but you'll see this. And it's definitely been increasing in the 2020s.

Speaker 5 But doesn't demographic change through driven by immigration

Speaker 5 scramble the formula a little bit? Yeah. So I'm 55.
You're older than I am by a bit, but we both grew up in a country where, you know, it was white majority, black minority.

Speaker 5 And with some, we're from California, both of us. So there was always a Hispanic component.

Speaker 5 But I think most Americans sort of thought of it as a white country with a black minority, a mistreated black minority. In some cases, that was true.

Speaker 5 But that's not the country that we're in right now, and it definitely is not the country we're going to be in in 10 years, which is going to have a Hispanic majority,

Speaker 5 a white minority, and then a much, much, much smaller black minority. So I just wonder if the Hispanic majority is going to be that interested in Emmett Till.

Speaker 6 Yeah, I mean, that's, yeah, that's definitely

Speaker 6 a possibility. And

Speaker 6 the

Speaker 6 establishment is working hard on that to

Speaker 6 inculcate in the public schools that Emmett Till is the most important figure of the 20th century.

Speaker 6 They're working very hard to keep together the democratic coalition of the fringes by pointing at these horrible white men who are the enemy and who also have all the generational wealth and keep your eye on the prize.

Speaker 6 Eyes on the prize.

Speaker 5 Which is other people's money.

Speaker 6 Yeah, other people's money.

Speaker 6 It's white people's home equity, basically, in stocks.

Speaker 6 Baby boomers are dying.

Speaker 6 They want to leave their property to their kids. This is a vast turnover of wealth.
We need to get our hands on some of this.

Speaker 6 Another question might be, you know, how big is the African immigration going to be? If you look at the border, there's all sorts of people showing up from Mauritania, from all sorts of places.

Speaker 6 You know,

Speaker 6 in recent years, all over the world, fertility rates are plummeting, except they're still way above

Speaker 6 reproduction rate in most of Africa.

Speaker 6 And

Speaker 6 it's not people know how to get out of Africa now. You got a smartphone.
It gives you all the instructions and so forth. So, you know, why not move somewhere nicer?

Speaker 6 And, you know, so the

Speaker 6 country could well be,

Speaker 6 you know,

Speaker 6 I mean, Europe's getting much more African and probably, and America is too at this point.

Speaker 6 The descendants of American slaves are losing out on their affirmative action and so forth. I mean, 20 years ago,

Speaker 6 two Harvard African American Studies professors pointed out that a huge fraction of the affirmative action spots at Harvard seem to be reserved either for foreign elites whose parents are, you know,

Speaker 6 foreign minister of Ghana or something like that, or

Speaker 6 have one white parent or like in the case of the Obama family, that's it's now a three-generation Harvard family, both

Speaker 6 privileges. And, you know, not many positions at Harvard go to descendants of American slaves the way, you know, Michelle Obama is clearly a

Speaker 6 highly legitimate descendant of American slaves. And Barack, man, not at all.

Speaker 6 But yeah, that's, we're going to see, we'll see that. I mean, American corporations, they want,

Speaker 6 if they have to meet DEI quotas,

Speaker 6 they tend to prefer immigrants for the jobs or people maybe who are raised by their white mothers or something like that.

Speaker 6 So

Speaker 6 we'll see where this all leads to. Where does it all go politically?

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Speaker 5 Well, actually, let me just just take a step back. You

Speaker 5 became famous to the extent that you were famous in sort of a Samas dot kind of way, 2016 for calling that election with some accuracy

Speaker 5 based on looking at the demographics.

Speaker 5 Tell us about your predictions.

Speaker 6 Yeah, I mean,

Speaker 6 that's a kind overstatement, but it's more like in 2000

Speaker 6 I became

Speaker 6 the most outspoken critic of the new GOP orthodoxy as promulgated by Karl Rove, George W. Bush's Swangali.
And Rove's theory was

Speaker 6 that

Speaker 6 what we need, what the Republicans need, is to push through amnesty and much easier immigration. And that's what the Latino voters or future Latino voters will

Speaker 6 love us for that, for bringing in fellow Latinos.

Speaker 6 And then they'll all switch to voting Republican, especially for the Bush family, which, you know,

Speaker 6 Jeb's son,

Speaker 6 George P. Bush, is half Mexican.
And so there's a future as the United States and Mexico demographically merge, the Bush dynasty of wasps and Mexicans will carry on as the natural ruling class of

Speaker 6 increasingly mestizo North America.

Speaker 6 And that's that wasn't too implausible, but I kept asking questions like,

Speaker 6 do Latinos really care?

Speaker 6 And that much about immigration policy?

Speaker 6 Are you sure they really want all their cousins from back home to be moving in with them?

Speaker 6 The one close Latino state is Florida. And do the Cubans in Florida really care about Mexicans, illegal alien Mexicans? I haven't noticed that.

Speaker 6 And

Speaker 6 I kept saying, you know,

Speaker 6 an awful lot of the Latinos are in California, and that's never going to go Republic again.

Speaker 6 And the others are in Texas in large numbers. And if that goes, if that's up for play, then the Republican Party's in really big trouble.

Speaker 6 So wouldn't it make more sense looking looking at the Electoral College map to go, well, look, there's all these Great Lakes states, the Rust Belt, and one of the things you see there is that the white working class isn't anywhere near as Republican as they are in the South.

Speaker 6 And they're actually really close in the Electoral College, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania. So why not do things for the white working class in the North,

Speaker 6 such as limiting immigration so that you know they can continue to be paid pretty well uh

Speaker 6 and focus on them and yeah that's

Speaker 6 and the republican establishment kept going on with the uh hispanic uh plan that was the big 2013 audit that convinced marco rubio that we need uh amnesty and so forth uh but i kept saying yeah you know the way you win in the electoral college is these is these Rust Belt states around the Great Britain.

Speaker 6 Did Rove not see that?

Speaker 6 I mean, for his loyalty to the Bush dynasty, I really think George P. Bush

Speaker 6 played a huge role in the Bush family's thinking that because

Speaker 6 Jeb had married into a Mexican family, that this gave the Bushes out of all all the WASP dynasties in the United States the greatest chance to exploit

Speaker 6 the immigration wave from Latin America and to be the natural rulers of

Speaker 6 a Mexicanized population. I mean,

Speaker 6 George H.W. Bush had 10-year-old George P.
Bush read the Declaration of Independence at the 1988 Republican Convention, which was a big deal

Speaker 6 the Democratic candidate had been unenthusiastic about the Pledge of Allegiance and so forth. So, you know,

Speaker 6 George H.W. was putting his, what he called his little brown one up there on national television.
The LBO. Yeah, to get that started.
So,

Speaker 6 yeah, it made sense to Rove.

Speaker 5 You got the sense that the more you listen to Rove, that maybe he wasn't the genius we were told he was.

Speaker 6 Yeah.

Speaker 6 You know, yeah,

Speaker 6 he won an election.

Speaker 6 Yeah, he got

Speaker 6 a couple of elections for George W. Bush.

Speaker 6 But yeah, is he this genius? Nah.

Speaker 6 But, you know, the Republicans weren't,

Speaker 6 didn't, you know,

Speaker 6 didn't have a whole lot of people who crunched numbers and spreadsheets. So

Speaker 6 in the first decade of the century, I spent a lot of time analyzing spreadsheets and so forth of election totals and going, you know, it looks like there's a different path here.

Speaker 6 And it really runs through the North Central region where

Speaker 6 white working class people vote about 50-50,

Speaker 6 Republican and Democrat, and you can get that up to 55-60%.

Speaker 6 You can win a lot of electoral votes. So did

Speaker 6 Trump read my 2000 article? Nah, but what else was he going to do?

Speaker 6 That was the one path to the presidency. You know, it almost worked again in 2020 under pretty adverse circumstances.

Speaker 5 So will it work this time?

Speaker 6 I don't know.

Speaker 6 I've given up making predictions. I mean,

Speaker 6 people came along like Nate Silver, who just were so much more interested in predicting elections and worked so much harder at it. I was like,

Speaker 6 I don't have that gambling instinct that Nate does. And, you know,

Speaker 6 I'm going to retire from making predictions.

Speaker 6 I don't see myself as a great forecaster of the future. What I try to be is a historian of the present and notice things that are happening right now.

Speaker 5 So, what is happening with Hispanic voters?

Speaker 6 In Texas,

Speaker 6 in Texas, it definitely seemed like the racial reckoning of 2020,

Speaker 6 when the Democrats went basically nuts over blacks,

Speaker 6 alienated quite a few Texas

Speaker 6 Latino Democrats.

Speaker 6 In California, less clear.

Speaker 5 Does it even matter? I mean, California is not much of a democracy at this point.

Speaker 6 Yeah,

Speaker 6 it doesn't matter.

Speaker 6 It's helpful in Texas in that the

Speaker 6 Republicans will basically lose the White House forever when Texas flips blue.

Speaker 6 The good news in Texas is

Speaker 6 that

Speaker 6 basically

Speaker 6 they have a pretty strong, loyal, steadfast Republican white

Speaker 6 population.

Speaker 6 A lot of the advantages of Texas are that they're not tied into guilt over the South. They were a Confederate state, but they don't care about that.
They care about the Alamo.

Speaker 6 They've got this whole national narrative,

Speaker 6 and

Speaker 6 it helps keep them together. And

Speaker 6 they provide strong leadership for Hispanics. And Hispanics are less, you know, domineering than people were talking about in the past.

Speaker 6 They kind of look around at their upper-middle-class neighbors and go, oh, okay, what do do you do? Oh, you're a Republican. Okay.

Speaker 6 That sounds pretty cool. I might be a Republican too.
California, you know, the upper middle class is Democratic, so the Hispanics follow that lead.

Speaker 6 So I can't tell, you know, exactly where it'll go.

Speaker 5 How does Trump change that? I mean,

Speaker 5 it feels anecdotally like a lot of Latin American immigrants like Trump.

Speaker 6 Yeah. I mean, what Trump has done is he's taken the appeal of the Republican Party

Speaker 6 downscale compared to, say, Mitt Romney.

Speaker 6 Mitt did a pretty good job of holding on to suburban upper middle class, the frequent flyer population,

Speaker 6 corporate executives and things like that. They feel at one with him.

Speaker 6 You know, Trump is picking up working class people of all races.

Speaker 6 That's good, but you know, it also is kind of taking the Republican Party downscale intellectually.

Speaker 6 You know, you're getting more dumb conspiracy theories out of Republicans, etc.

Speaker 6 You know, it's

Speaker 6 if can the Republicans keep some competent

Speaker 6 higher brow people around,

Speaker 6 you know, that's another question. what do you think

Speaker 6 i mean a big a big question is how much is this totally a

Speaker 6 uh a

Speaker 6 trump's personality i mean you know 2020 2024 it looked like ron de santis had like studied trump and said okay trump's got some interesting new ideas some post-romney ideas and i'm the competent uh well-educated guy who reads all the fine print, and I can implement some of these.

Speaker 6 And that doesn't seem like a bad pitch,

Speaker 6 but just

Speaker 6 didn't go over at all. You know, as soon as the Democrats

Speaker 6 started arresting Trump for all sorts of charges,

Speaker 6 then

Speaker 6 that

Speaker 6 helped solve the Democratic nightmare that the Republicans were going to nominate

Speaker 6 a competent 40-something to run against their octogeneric incumbent.

Speaker 6 And so now we're stuck with a rerun of

Speaker 5 that's what it was.

Speaker 6 It was the

Speaker 5 persecution of Trump.

Speaker 6 It seemed like that blunted DeSantis, and basically Republicans went back to Trump and went like, well, if the Democrats are going to do that, then we're going to stand by Trump. And,

Speaker 6 you know, if the, you know,

Speaker 6 arresting a major candidate is un-American. It's

Speaker 6 totally

Speaker 6 shameful in the United States history. And

Speaker 6 the Democrats didn't get in the way and go like, oh, let's not do that. They let local politicians, you know, kind of run amok, like this New York case.

Speaker 6 And

Speaker 6 so they got the nominee they wanted, Donald Trump. But

Speaker 6 now they're real worried that they're going to get the president they don't want, Donald Trump.

Speaker 6 So we shall see.

Speaker 5 So the reason that you've emerged from your Cave and Tora Bora

Speaker 6 coming to the... Sorry.

Speaker 5 It's because you've got a book. Yeah.

Speaker 6 It's a beautiful looking book.

Speaker 5 And it's collected

Speaker 5 journalism 1973 to 2023.

Speaker 6 You don't look that old.

Speaker 5 But it's called noticing. What does that mean?

Speaker 6 Yeah.

Speaker 6 I'll hold it up here.

Speaker 6 I mean,

Speaker 6 it's a slogan that I took from George Orwell, who said that to

Speaker 6 see what's in front of one's nose takes a constant effort.

Speaker 6 And I'm trying to make it easier for people to notice the realities that they see around them

Speaker 6 and to

Speaker 6 to understand that what they see with their own lying eyes in their daily life is also actually validated by the best of the social sciences and that there that there aren't these two different realms of existence, this kind of tawdry sublunary one where we make decisions about what neighborhoods our family should live in and what's what are good schools for the kids.

Speaker 6 And then this higher, more

Speaker 6 realm of the science. The world of data.
Yeah, the world of data that proves

Speaker 6 that all those things you notice in your daily life can't possibly be true because then that would be a stereotype. And my view is, no, it's all connected.
There's just one reality out there.

Speaker 6 It goes from your personal anecdotes to what people might dismiss as anecdotal to the data.

Speaker 6 And it all tells pretty much the same story.

Speaker 5 So. But why is it? I mean, we don't even need to get into COVID, but I just noticed from the very beginning, I never knew anyone.
I know people died of COVID. I never knew anyone who died of COVID.

Speaker 5 I did know someone who died from the vax and a number of other people who were injured pretty conclusively by the vax. That doesn't mean that more people were injured by the vax than died of COVID.

Speaker 5 I'm not saying that. But then I started to ask around, you know, do you know anyone who died of COVID? Do you know anyone? Like, actually, no one.

Speaker 5 Have you had dinner with anyone who later died of COVID? Do you know anyone who was injured by the vaccine? And I don't think I've ever met a single person who didn't have the same answer I did.

Speaker 5 Whether that's reality or not, I still don't know. But I do know there's been such an effort to tell me that I'm crazy for noticing that.

Speaker 6 Yeah, one

Speaker 6 thing I used to do was go through the list of

Speaker 6 on Wikipedia prominent people who have died of COVID.

Speaker 6 And the thing I noticed about it

Speaker 6 was

Speaker 6 that

Speaker 6 they were almost all people who were no longer in their primes.

Speaker 6 That, oh, like I saw, like, oh, baseball pitcher, Hall of Famer Tom Seaver has died at age 74 of COVID. And then I looked up a little more about him and like, well, you know,

Speaker 6 he probably would have had another good couple decades going to old-timers games games, and stuff like that.

Speaker 6 But then it turned out that he dropped out of public life the year before because he had dementia

Speaker 5 and Parkinson's.

Speaker 6 Yeah, just general, he didn't have a good life ahead of him.

Speaker 6 And so I think that's one of the things that was going on was that COVID was really taking a toll among people

Speaker 6 who had passed their primes and were toward the last decade of their lives and weren't no longer in the public eye? And

Speaker 6 so

Speaker 6 that sort of helps explain the thesis that, yeah, there was a lot of COVID deaths. The antithesis that, like, you know, it's not like anybody I was like met and I knew at work dropped dead of COVID.

Speaker 6 And then you get the synthesis of like, oh, yeah, it's, it mostly

Speaker 6 killed off people

Speaker 6 who were probably close to retirement, retired, in ill health from other things, and so on.

Speaker 5 Aaron Powell, so I think what's interesting is the point of social science, Susan, there was a point, was to bring the principles of science of the scientific method to bear on the world just right around us and to make it clear what we are actually seeing.

Speaker 6 I think. Yeah.

Speaker 5 And, but it seems like its use, at least over the past several years, has been to do the opposite, which is to obscure what we're actually seeing, living, experiencing, and tell us a story that's not true.

Speaker 5 Yeah.

Speaker 5 Is that my imagination?

Speaker 6 No, it's, I mean, the issue is that so much data has piled up

Speaker 6 that we can now answer quite a few questions that were beyond our capability beforehand. I mean,

Speaker 6 and the answers we keep getting are the political, are generally politically incorrect ones that were anticipated by the bad people, the Charles Murrays and James Q. Wilsons

Speaker 6 in the 20th century.

Speaker 6 So, for example, we have an enormous amount of data from DNA that tells us about our racial ancestry. And what have we discovered? in that in this century? Did the

Speaker 6 conventional wisdom that race does not biologically exist be proven? No, of course not.

Speaker 6 You can call up ancestry.com or 23 and me, and they'll tell you your race to

Speaker 6 three digits.

Speaker 6 They'll tell you, you know, if you're Jewish, they'll tell you, you know, you're 49.8% Ashkenazi.

Speaker 6 Other data is piling up. There's a Harvard economist named Raj Chetty who's done phenomenal work talking government bureaucracies into letting him work with totally confidential data like

Speaker 6 the tax returns of everybody in the country. And so he can do studies that nobody ever had the chutzpah to dream before that they'd ever get their hands on the data.
So for example, he gets

Speaker 6 he tracked 21 million Americans across 30 years of their lives from he looked at how much money their parents made in the 1990s, and then he looked at things like, were they in jail on Census Day, January, April 1st,

Speaker 6 2010, when they were about 30 years old.

Speaker 6 And so then he could plot out what are the odds of

Speaker 6 a man being in jail based on how poor or rich his parents were. And not surprisingly,

Speaker 6 guys who grew up poor go to jail a lot more. But

Speaker 6 he could also answer using data from the Census Bureau what the race was of all 21 million of his people. And he discovered, yeah, in general,

Speaker 6 blacks who had the exact same income as whites growing up as kids in the 90s, but on 200 in 2010 were in jail three to ten times more often than whites who were their exact peers in terms of family income.

Speaker 6 And this is like, wow, I never expected somebody to be able to come up with that. And it goes, yeah.

Speaker 6 So

Speaker 6 when people wonder why are blacks in jail more often,

Speaker 6 is it poverty? And poverty plays a role, but even without poverty, you take it all away. At the highest level,

Speaker 6 at the highest percentile, blacks go to jail about 10 times as often as the richest whites.

Speaker 6 So we're able to answer all sorts of social science questions these days, but

Speaker 6 nobody likes the answers they're getting.

Speaker 5 Well, it did seem like when we finally unraveled the human genome,

Speaker 5 which was right around the time the bell curve came out-ish,

Speaker 5 that's when the whole conversation got shut down. Yeah.
Maybe we had too much information?

Speaker 6 Yeah.

Speaker 6 What happened

Speaker 6 at a ceremony that Bill Clinton put on in the Presidential Rose

Speaker 6 Garden in 2000 for the Human Genome Project,

Speaker 6 they just sort of made progress decoding a single genome, which was mostly that of entrepreneur Craig Venter,

Speaker 6 who'd helped out enormously.

Speaker 6 And Craig got up and made a speech that was exactly what the zeitgeist wanted to hear.

Speaker 6 He said, we've looked at the human genome or his human genome, and we discovered the one thing you can't see in it is race. There's no difference whatsoever genetically

Speaker 6 between

Speaker 6 different genomes

Speaker 6 in terms of racial ancestry. Well, then...
Within three, four, five years, the evidence was piling up. It was like, no, actually, you can tell exactly what the ancestry of people is.

Speaker 6 It became a sizable business very quickly. But as far as I can tell, a huge fraction of the population remembers hearing that

Speaker 6 the science has proven that race doesn't exist genetically.

Speaker 6 And they've never rethought it since that 2000

Speaker 6 speech by Venter standing next to Bill Clinton.

Speaker 6 So

Speaker 6 people want to believe some things. They want to believe that the science has proven all of this anti-racist

Speaker 6 dogmas that they get told. And they just sort of ignore that, nah, it's actually moving the other direction.

Speaker 6 It's time that we think realistically about

Speaker 6 what the data is telling us.

Speaker 6 And

Speaker 6 personally, I don't think it's the end of the world by any means.

Speaker 6 And I think

Speaker 6 we can all get along pretty well knowing the realities.

Speaker 6 But a lot of people are just terrified of them and basically want to lie about it.

Speaker 5 I mean, the way that previous civilizations held together in the face of knowledge of genetic and racial differences, which are obviously real.

Speaker 5 But they weren't always at war with themselves.

Speaker 5 And one of the ways they did that was by believing in a religious doctrine that said God created everybody, therefore, despite whatever differences we have, have, we are all of equal value.

Speaker 5 Without that overlay, which we no longer have, how do you keep a society together in the face of these realities?

Speaker 6 Yeah, I mean,

Speaker 6 the Democrats have been moving

Speaker 6 toward the

Speaker 6 you know,

Speaker 6 toward a sort of Nazi-type solution of having a scapegoat

Speaker 6 who unites everybody else by being the locus of evil, namely

Speaker 6 whites. Or, you know, in the way the Democratic works, it's all sorts of circles within circles.
So you get more Pokemon points for being non-white. You get diversity points for being a woman.

Speaker 6 You get more diversity points if you were born a man, et cetera, et cetera.

Speaker 6 But yeah, unifying around a scapegoat population, that does not have a a good track record.

Speaker 5 What happens in the end?

Speaker 6 What happens in the end?

Speaker 6 We don't know.

Speaker 6 Does it get worse?

Speaker 6 Or

Speaker 6 one of the things we see

Speaker 6 maybe over the last year is people just objecting to it and pushing back and laughing at the conventional wisdom and scoffing at it and saying, you know, you guys are just making this up.

Speaker 6 It's not true. You're just saying it so you can get DEI money and easy sinecure jobs.

Speaker 6 And, you know, we don't believe this.

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Speaker 5 One thing ambitious people are doing, and you've written about this, is just denying being white.

Speaker 6 Yeah.

Speaker 5 And the flight from white. What is that?

Speaker 6 Flight from white has a lot of different dimensions.

Speaker 6 It's people,

Speaker 6 it's

Speaker 6 kids applying to college and remembering their grandmother was

Speaker 6 their Irish grandmother was born in Buenos Aires before she went back to Ireland.

Speaker 5 In Argentina, the whitest country in the world?

Speaker 6 Yeah.

Speaker 6 And it's so stupid.

Speaker 6 But it's also happening at the government level,

Speaker 6 the census and so forth.

Speaker 6 So the Biden administration just recently announced that

Speaker 6 they're allowing Middle Easterners and North Africans

Speaker 6 to have their own racial category, M-E-N-A,

Speaker 6 so that they don't have the

Speaker 6 unprofitable, ignominious fate of having to check white or Caucasian.

Speaker 6 And

Speaker 6 this has a long tradition in the United States. If you go back to in the 1970s, South Asians were classified as white, but that really annoyed the South Asian businessmen

Speaker 6 because East Asian businessmen were getting all sorts of low-interest loans from the SBA as a minority. They were getting

Speaker 6 contracting preferences on government deals.

Speaker 6 And the South Asians said, well, hey, we just got off the airplane. We should be getting those deals too.

Speaker 6 And so the South Asian organizations got themselves declared to be Asian and grouped in with the Orientals and formed the new Asian group so they could get these

Speaker 6 good deals from the government that white people are not entitled to.

Speaker 6 And

Speaker 6 so that was an early example of flight from white.

Speaker 6 You see it with...

Speaker 6 the Hispanics increasingly...

Speaker 6 Originally, when the Hispanic category was created, it was set up so Hispanics could get good deals from the government and get good affirmative action benefits, but without actually declaring themselves to be racially white because a lot of them were kind of took pride in their,

Speaker 6 they took racist pride in their blue-blooded Spanish heritage and so forth.

Speaker 5 Well, there's an awful lot of that in Latin America.

Speaker 6 So they increased.

Speaker 6 So they set up a separate ethnicity for Hispanics so you could get all the affirmative action benefits without actually admitting your shame of being white. But enough time has gone by that, you know,

Speaker 6 only your,

Speaker 6 you know, your Fuentes types anymore are like really publicly white racist from Latin America. And

Speaker 6 now it's more prestigious to declare yourself racially, I'm Hispanic, even though nobody's exactly sure what that means.

Speaker 5 What does it mean? I'm confused too, because

Speaker 5 would that include Brazil, which is, of course, a different language? It's not, right, and a different colonial power.

Speaker 5 But of course, it's a multiracial country, heavily black country,

Speaker 5 as is Cuba, which is Spanish-speaking. I mean, it's like, I don't understand what does the word mean?

Speaker 6 Yes,

Speaker 6 are Brazilians and Portuguese included in Hispanics, or are they

Speaker 6 Lusatanics?

Speaker 6 And

Speaker 6 according to a book I read by David Bernstein,

Speaker 6 categorized, I believe it's called,

Speaker 6 law professor, he said that most of the federal government will not give you a break on federal contracting if you were if you put down your Brazilian, except the Department of Transportation.

Speaker 6 They'll give you racial preferences for bidding on a highway overpass or something like that. If you're Brazilian,

Speaker 6 they'll include them in the Hispanics.

Speaker 6 So

Speaker 6 it's,

Speaker 6 I mean, we live in a society that's increasingly mixed in terms of ancestry. So we have more and more people coming out who are a quarter this and a quarter that.

Speaker 6 And there's lots of money on the table.

Speaker 6 And

Speaker 6 as long as you don't declare yourself white, you've got all sorts of opportunities to get free BC.

Speaker 5 I wonder how long this can go on, though, before it just blows up the country. I mean, is there any chance of getting back

Speaker 6 to

Speaker 5 a race-blind posture officially by the federal government? I mean, you can have whatever opinions you want on race.

Speaker 5 But the government, which represents everybody, has to treat American citizens equally as citizens. Is there any hope for that?

Speaker 6 I mean, the Supreme Court nominally outlawed affirmative action in colleges, like because Harvard was was

Speaker 6 clearly discriminating against Asians.

Speaker 6 On the other hand,

Speaker 6 they left huge loopholes like, oh, well, yeah, you can write about your race in your essay,

Speaker 6 and

Speaker 6 the admissions department can then go, oh, this kid is black, so we'll give him 50 extra Pokemon points on his application.

Speaker 6 I mean,

Speaker 6 one issue is that

Speaker 6 that Asian students are pulling away so fast from everybody else in terms of things like SAT scores,

Speaker 6 that the

Speaker 6 Asian-black

Speaker 6 gaps are opening up so widely

Speaker 6 that

Speaker 6 if you go to total color blind college admissions at the high end, you end up with

Speaker 6 a campus with very, very few blacks qualifying to get in and a huge number of Asians.

Speaker 6 And places like Harvard really worry about whether they might turn out like Yogi Berra's former favorite restaurant that got so popular that nobody goes there anymore.

Speaker 6 So if Harvard becomes 56% Asian, are Asians going to consider Harvard cool? Or do Asians want to go to places that there's a lot of white people there?

Speaker 6 You know, nobody really knows. And,

Speaker 6 you know,

Speaker 6 what I don't know is whether the Asian

Speaker 6 rise, the rise in Asian SAT scores is completely legitimate, and they just really have been getting so much smarter than everybody else in the 21st century that Asian test scores are pulling away from the field like Secretariat in the 1973 Belmont.

Speaker 6 Could there be other reasons? Yeah, could it be? I mean, we know there's a lot of cheating in Asia itself on the SAT.

Speaker 5 I don't think people bring their bad habits when they come here, do you?

Speaker 6 Yeah, I mean, I mean, nobody can possibly communicate across the Pacific Ocean. It's thousands of miles wide.
How could anybody text message what was on the test?

Speaker 6 Or, you know, just the enormous amount of tiger mother

Speaker 6 prep that Asians brought with them from

Speaker 6 their 2,000-year-old tradition of taking tests to become Mandarins and doing enormous amounts of test prep for years.

Speaker 6 Or is it

Speaker 6 there's possible technical reasons that the people making the SAT have been criticized for one thing or another for discriminating against blacks and Latinos, so they keep doing things like, let's get rid of analogies, and that'll be fairer, fairer, but it winds up just benefiting the Asians most of all.

Speaker 6 Why?

Speaker 6 Oh,

Speaker 6 it was more of a, when they had analogies, it was, it was harder to memorize, apparently, and the test prep didn't work as well. It took a certain amount of creativity and kind of

Speaker 6 insight in the brain.

Speaker 6 But the University of California demanded getting rid of analogies about 20 20 years ago. So the college board said, yeah, sure, you're our biggest customer.
We'll do what you want.

Speaker 6 And things just sort of got worse after that.

Speaker 5 But there has been a noticeable rise, relative rise in Asian SAT scores.

Speaker 6 Huge, huge. Huge.

Speaker 6 Since the year 2000. And

Speaker 6 I think basically

Speaker 6 we should have, you know, Blue Ribbon Commission to look into what's going on exactly with the SAT.

Speaker 6 You know, I mean, that's one reason

Speaker 6 that COVID came. Yeah.

Speaker 5 I'm sorry, just before you say that, but does it still matter? I mean, is that the trend of schools getting rid of the SAT requirement, is that real?

Speaker 6 Yeah, definitely all happened during COVID and the racial reckoning at once. All the colleges went, well,

Speaker 6 they had to cancel some some SAT tests because they had to be six feet apart and I couldn't fit in the classroom, et cetera.

Speaker 6 And then they all decided that due to the racial reckoning that they weren't going to take SATs. And in fact, they were going to make it go totally test optional.

Speaker 6 And the University of California went further. They banned the

Speaker 6 applicants from submitting any kind of test score.

Speaker 6 And

Speaker 6 then what happened was that the colleges started noticing like, wow, these kids who are showing up that we let in, they're not very bright.

Speaker 6 they are not going to become computer science graduates of mit so mit was the first one that went ah this was stupid we're going back to demanding uh standardized tests and now harvard's jumped on board everybody except the university of california at the elite level is moving in that direction uh because it it was so it is it is a measure of aptitude actually yeah and it yeah it's it's a very good measure of aptitude it tells

Speaker 6 you know, GPA, high school GPA is a great measure, but it's hard to compare schools. Some schools are hard in grades, some are easy.

Speaker 6 Having this,

Speaker 6 having a test and having high school grades, you can put them together and they work pretty well.

Speaker 6 But because

Speaker 6 of the racial gaps that have been around forever in these things,

Speaker 6 it was decided during the racial reckoning that that absolutely proves, as Ibram Ibram X. Kendi has demonstrated by scientific logic, that

Speaker 6 the only reason

Speaker 6 some races might be doing better than other races is because of

Speaker 6 the evil of whiteness.

Speaker 6 But, of course, what it turns out is the Asians are doing much, much better.

Speaker 5 Because of the evil of whiteness?

Speaker 6 Because nobody really knows because nobody's that interested in studying it because it sounds like the kind of thing you could get canceled for finding out. And

Speaker 6 just in general, we have a lot of problems that have been swept under the rug in recent years because they don't fit within the ideologies,

Speaker 6 the woke ideologies.

Speaker 6 And just to think about them is kind of dangerous sounding.

Speaker 5 When the planes start crashing,

Speaker 5 will people start thinking about them?

Speaker 6 I hope so. I mean, my father worked for Lockheed from the late 30s to the 1980s.
And when one of his planes crashed,

Speaker 6 he'd spend two months on the site.

Speaker 6 Because when a plane hits the ground, it spreads out over a mile or so, picking up all the pieces of the plane so they could reassemble it and there's a jigsaw puzzle and figure out why it crashed.

Speaker 6 And also picking up pieces of the pilot and the passengers and so forth. And over

Speaker 6 the last hundred years, people who were picked because they were smart and hardworking have done a whole lot of good at getting airplanes so they don't crash very much anymore.

Speaker 6 Now, Boeing may be working on reversing a lot of that history, but

Speaker 6 yeah,

Speaker 6 you know, we got a lot better at things by having systems to find people who were competent and work hard. And

Speaker 6 now the zeitgeist in the 21st century has been moving away from that.

Speaker 6 Will we see a lot of planes crashing? God, I hope not. But, you know,

Speaker 6 we need to make a 180 degree U-turn in terms of what we value, whether it's competence or diversity. And lately, diversity has been winning, and that's going to get people killed.

Speaker 5 Is there a point?

Speaker 5 I mean, I'm asking these questions because South Africa tried this, and the country is just continuously degraded for, well, 30 years this year, to the point where there's no electricity in parts at times, and the murder rate is among the highest in the world, and the rape rate is the highest in the world.

Speaker 5 But there's no deceleration that I can tell from afar, thousands of miles away, but I'm watching and it's like, no, there's no second guessing. It's just like...

Speaker 5 going to ride it right back to the Stone Age, pretend it was never an advanced society.

Speaker 5 In our our country, which is different from South Africa in a lot of ways, will there be a point like when the planes do crash and the air traffic controllers are just high or too dumb or distracted or don't care to keep the planes from crashing?

Speaker 5 Will there be a public demand? Like, no, no, no, let's just hire viability from now on.

Speaker 6 Well,

Speaker 6 what we've seen is

Speaker 6 what we saw with what we talked about earlier:

Speaker 6 homicides and car crashes, huge increases, and we've seen some pushback against that.

Speaker 6 But, you know, the establishment doesn't really want to talk about why that happened

Speaker 6 because

Speaker 6 it's embarrassing for them. On the other hand, the airplanes, you know, important

Speaker 6 people fly a lot more than unimportant people do.

Speaker 6 And that's one reason we have like pretty strict rules about who can be a pilot. There was a plane crash in 2009.

Speaker 6 Congressmen take a lot of flights to get back to their home district.

Speaker 5 The one in Buffalo?

Speaker 6 Yeah. So they immediately passed some laws that

Speaker 6 made it harder to become a pilot. And

Speaker 6 there hasn't been a fatal plane crash of an American airliner

Speaker 6 since then. And, you know, some of it is we just, we got really good pilots these days, in part because congressmen worry about stuff like that.

Speaker 6 Now, are we,

Speaker 6 you know, but on the other hand, the Obama administration came along and basically sabotaged the system for hiring air traffic controllers. And

Speaker 6 Congress had set up a pretty good system for finding

Speaker 6 good people in the 90s. But yeah, it turned out that it's like white men really like air traffic.
They really like airplanes.

Speaker 6 It's like, well, you know, what is, what does a, what have white men ever done with airplanes since the Wright brothers?

Speaker 6 So there, there were too many whites. So the Obama administration came up with a totally absurd, corrupt test to hire more black guys.

Speaker 6 And

Speaker 6 So what happens is then

Speaker 6 you get fewer people still make it through the training. So the training has been kept pretty legitimate.
So you flunk out more people, which then means that

Speaker 6 you're under the number of air traffic controllers you expected.

Speaker 6 So you're making them work really long hours and they're getting more and more tired on the job and they're making mistakes and stuff like that.

Speaker 6 And it tracks back to the Obama administration's DEI program for air traffic controllers.

Speaker 6 Can we avoid that?

Speaker 6 Yeah, we can. We just got to talk about it.

Speaker 6 And we just can't just shut down discussion by saying, are you saying that, you know, a stereotype that on average blacks wouldn't make as good air traffic controllers as whites?

Speaker 6 And the answer is, yeah. Yeah, I'm saying that.
So you expect to have a fewer percentage passing the test.

Speaker 6 And we can live with it. We live with it every day in sports that there are racial differences in performance on average, and nobody cares that much.

Speaker 6 And, you know, God bless them. We love sports.
So, yeah,

Speaker 6 there is hope for the country that we can go back and have a philosophy for, you know, for things like jet travel that

Speaker 6 we consider it as important as the NFL, and therefore we can't have

Speaker 6 racial quotas getting in the way.

Speaker 6 That doesn't seem

Speaker 6 outlandish.

Speaker 5 No, it doesn't.

Speaker 5 So, last question,

Speaker 5 and I

Speaker 5 sort of began with this, but maybe you've,

Speaker 5 I just want to push a little more. Why do you think that you're able to have these conversations? And when you travel the country talking about your book, you're not attacked.

Speaker 5 And, you know, speaking of good signs,

Speaker 5 do you take that as a good sign that the country's becoming more open?

Speaker 6 Well,

Speaker 6 yeah, somebody suggested to me, it's like, well, Stave,

Speaker 6 you're in the best possible position. It's the fourth year of a Democratic president.
Everybody's sick of Biden.

Speaker 6 But if Trump gets elected, then there will be an enormous effort on the part of the establishment to crack down on

Speaker 6 you know, honest, dissident voices that lead to horrible outcomes like Trump getting reelected.

Speaker 6 And

Speaker 6 if

Speaker 6 Biden wins, then they'll go, oh, ooh, we've got four more years

Speaker 6 and we really got to change things. So we never let Trump win, Trump's type people win again.
So

Speaker 6 it could be

Speaker 6 a short-term thaw. Or it could be that enough people

Speaker 6 have noticed

Speaker 6 and have been empowered by changes like Elon Musk opening up Twitter so that

Speaker 6 I can have 125,000 followers.

Speaker 6 Just

Speaker 6 the accumulation of little changes like that, that

Speaker 6 these ideas that I've been propounding for 30 years and have people out there going, yeah, Sailor's ideas, they make sense. He's like the most reasonable guy in America.

Speaker 6 Maybe, you know, we've gone through a watershed and we're beyond the mania of the racial reckoning and the great awokening.

Speaker 6 Knock on wood. I hope so.

Speaker 6 Or, or.

Speaker 5 This period 10 years from now is described as the Dark Ages, where Steve Saylor was actually in public.

Speaker 6 Yeah, I mean, face uncovered.

Speaker 6 I mean, what do you think?

Speaker 6 I mean, all right, let me ask you,

Speaker 6 why me in particular that

Speaker 6 I became sort of the Lord Voldemort whose name

Speaker 6 cannot be mentioned when I'm just,

Speaker 6 you know, this kind of, to my mind, this very kind of public-spirited, benevolent guy who can see both sides of various problems.

Speaker 5 Well, I've always thought that

Speaker 5 I've always thought that you were particularly threatening because you're so obviously moderate by temperament. You're just clearly not a hater.
You can smell that on people instantly.

Speaker 5 You're very reasonable, and you use the language that the left would like to keep for itself, like of science, of reason, of data.

Speaker 5 And you actually argue from that basis. And they'd like a monopoly on that.
And so there's something really threatening about a guy who's like, no, actually, no, here are the numbers.

Speaker 5 and doesn't raise his voice. That's way more threatening than some guy who's jumping up and down on cable news or, you know, sending crazed tweets all day long.

Speaker 5 That person is, you know, his potential audience is much smaller than yours. Your potential audience is like, you know, sort of any open-minded person who'd like to solve a problem.

Speaker 5 That's always been my thought.

Speaker 6 Yeah, yeah, I hope so.

Speaker 6 But

Speaker 6 yeah,

Speaker 6 it's been, you know, a long, strange trip.

Speaker 5 Did it bother you when they called you a Nazi or white supremacist or when they threw these slurs at you for so long?

Speaker 6 I mean,

Speaker 6 I didn't,

Speaker 6 it seemed ridiculous,

Speaker 6 but

Speaker 6 it also didn't seem like

Speaker 6 it also seemed like what they want to do is get you into

Speaker 6 a position where it's like, oh, I'm not one of those horrible people.

Speaker 6 Here's these six guys are the really horrible people. And

Speaker 6 get me to condemn people who,

Speaker 6 you know, get to drive them out of publicity.

Speaker 6 You know, it's kind of the way,

Speaker 6 you know,

Speaker 6 you hear liberals talk about, well, the great thing about William F. Buckley was he cracked down on Pat Buchanan.
All right. And

Speaker 6 I never met Mr. Buckley.

Speaker 6 You know, I worked for National Review, wrote for National Review in the 90s.

Speaker 6 But I did meet Mr. Buchanan.
And, you know, Pat was a great guy.

Speaker 6 I mean, one of my last memories of my father before he died at 95 was Pat sent me one of his new books, and he'd gone through and put post-it notes on every page where he quoted me or made reference to some concept of mine.

Speaker 6 So I showed it to my dad and he read it.

Speaker 6 He looked through at all the things that Pat had with his own hand had

Speaker 6 said, all the nice things he'd said about me and was like, wow,

Speaker 6 this is great. And, you know, that was like the last thing, our last interaction before he died.
And I

Speaker 6 thank Pat Buchanan for it. And a lot of people have good stories about Pat Buchanan.

Speaker 5 What a nice man.

Speaker 6 Yes, absolutely. Yeah.

Speaker 5 So, I mean,

Speaker 5 I guess it could kind of go either way. It depends on who's writing the history.
I mean, I'd bet money that,

Speaker 5 you know, Pat Buchanan is described in 50 years when there's not a single living person who actually knew him,

Speaker 5 you know, as some sort of monster or hater or something like that, wouldn't you think?

Speaker 6 Yeah.

Speaker 6 I mean,

Speaker 6 I mean, they say histories written by the winners.

Speaker 6 My impression is more histories written by historians who got paid by one side or the other, not necessarily the winners, to write the history.

Speaker 6 So, you know, for 100 years after the Civil War in the United States, the South, which was mostly pretty broke, but they could still scrape together enough money to pay historians to write the story of the lost cause.

Speaker 6 And so, most of our history books were kind of biased in favor of the South.

Speaker 6 You know, what's how we're going to remember

Speaker 6 our time, I don't know.

Speaker 6 But

Speaker 6 it could change very much. And

Speaker 6 maybe we'll have different heroes all of a sudden. You know, that's, that's, maybe you and maybe you and me will look come out looking pretty good with this.

Speaker 6 Well,

Speaker 5 I have trouble believing that, but I admire you.

Speaker 6 Well, me too.

Speaker 5 Steve Sower, thank you very much.

Speaker 6 All right. Thank you, Tucker.
Thanks.

Speaker 5 Thanks for listening to the Tucker Carlson Show. If you enjoyed it, you can go to tuckercarlson.com to see everything that we have made, the complete library, tuckercarlson.com.