How Trump saved Canada’s libs

Speaker 1 It's Election Day in Canada, which is nothing new for reporter Stephanie Levitz.

Speaker 2 I have covered, I believe, this is my ninth federal election.

Speaker 1 But Stephanie says this one is without precedent.

Speaker 2 How it looked like the next campaign in this country was going to go, and it feels like that's all been flipped on its head.

Speaker 2 So you have the liberal campaign, which is led by Mark Carney, which is driving a narrative that says he's the guy to take on U.S. President Donald Trump.

Speaker 3 We can't change President Trump, so we need a leader that can stand up to him.

Speaker 2 His chief opponent, Conservative leader Pierre Polyev, running more on a cost-of-living narrative.

Speaker 4 We cannot afford a fourth liberal term.

Speaker 2 It's as though they're kind of evaluating them and imagining a boardroom and imagining the U.S. president at one end of the table and this leader at the other end of the table.

Speaker 2 And which one do I want to see in that seat?

Speaker 1 How Trump's 51st state talk may have saved Canada's libs coming up on Today Explained.

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Speaker 1 When we sat down with Stephanie Levitz from The Globe and Mail, we started talking about how it was just about a year ago that we sat down with former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

Speaker 1 He was eager to talk about his ambitious plans to invest in housing construction, affordable health care and child care, raising capital gains taxes.

Speaker 7 These are things that actually meet people where they are in their cost of living and provide solutions for a better life. Those choices are going to be on the table in the next election.

Speaker 7 And I'm confident that Canadians are going to remain responsible, ambitious, and optimistic about their future.

Speaker 1 You know, I asked him if you should just step aside, and he said, no, I still have something to offer the Canadian people, but it turned out the Canadian people weren't buying what he was selling.

Speaker 2 I mean, that's pretty much it, right? When I I think back about when he went on your podcast, he was trying to reach a different group of voters.

Speaker 2 He was trying to reach people, frankly, that his opponent, Conservative Leader Pierre Polyev, had been so successful reaching, which was millennials, younger Canadians, people really worried about their futures.

Speaker 2 And at that moment in time, those people were squarely behind Pierre Polyev, and they weren't interested in Justin Trudeau because part of it was, well, thanks, where have you been?

Speaker 2 You've already been in power for nine years.

Speaker 1 And so, as this campaign sort of drags on, Trudeau has to finally face the music and he announces that he will be stepping aside.

Speaker 1 But it seems like right as he's in the process of stepping aside, all of a sudden the liberals do get a boost from a very unlikely source. Is that accurate?

Speaker 8 Canada and the United States, that would really be something.

Speaker 8 You get rid of that artificially drawn line and you take a look at what that looks like.

Speaker 2 This is one of the wild turning points of our election.

Speaker 2 So you have the Liberals down in the dumps. Nothing is going right for them.

Speaker 2 And then, in December, in this like Shakespearean political moment, his finance minister and deputy prime minister, Christia Freeland, quit on the very morning she was supposed to deliver a major economic update for the government.

Speaker 2 And when she quit, it was to tell Justin Trudeau that she didn't think he had the chops to guide the country in a trade war with the United States.

Speaker 9 Now, in a letter posted to X addressed to the Prime Minister, Freeland says, The Prime Minister and her have found themselves at odds over the past few weeks about the best path forward for Canada.

Speaker 10 There is one line that is particularly pointed where she says that we need to eschew political gimmicks that the country can ill afford.

Speaker 2 Trudeau sees the writing on the wall, decides to go.

Speaker 11 I intend to resign as party leader, as prime minister,

Speaker 11 after the party selects its next leader.

Speaker 2 But because he launches a leadership race in the interim, Now, while he's still Prime Minister, he only needs to focus on one thing, not all the things.

Speaker 2 And that thing, that big, big thing that was blotting out the sun in Canada, was Donald Trump and the launch of the tariff war.

Speaker 12 Mr. President, is there anything China, Canada, and Mexico can do tonight to forestall your implementation of tariffs tomorrow?

Speaker 14 No, nothing.

Speaker 8 Not right now, no.

Speaker 2 And from that point on, when you saw Justin Trudeau, you know, singularly focused on being captain Canada.

Speaker 7 Canadians are reasonable and we are polite, but we will not back down from a fight.

Speaker 2 Which is a role that suits him, that comes naturally to him because of his upbringing, because his father was a prime minister.

Speaker 2 People started sort of responding to the Liberals in a very different way than they'd been responding to them for months. And you begin to see the polls tick, tick, tick, tick up for the Liberals.

Speaker 2 Then along comes the new Liberal leader, Mark Carney, and that's when you really begin to see the polls take off for the Liberal Party.

Speaker 18 We didn't ask for this fight.

Speaker 18 The Canadians are always ready when someone else drops the gloves.

Speaker 18 So the Americans, they should make no mistake, in trade as in hockey, Canada will win.

Speaker 2 And under this new guy, who's very different than Justin Trudeau in all sorts of ways, people who had turned their backs on the Liberals began turning towards them.

Speaker 2 People who were worried about, you know, the future of this country, but used to put those votes in a much more progressive political party, the new Democrats, it was called, they started looking to the Liberal Party.

Speaker 2 People in Quebec, where the federal political party there is called the Blo Québécois, they're a separatist party, incredibly, Quebecers were looking towards the Liberal Party.

Speaker 20 The Liberal pitch in Quebec is that only the Liberals can stand up to President Donald Trump. Just like

Speaker 22 elsewhere in Canada, Quebecers' voting intentions and the way they looked at this federal election was completely upended.

Speaker 2 And it was this swing of fortunes for the Liberals, and now they're running neck and neck with their former opponents.

Speaker 1 Mark Carney, different from Trudeau, in some ways maybe similar to Trudeau, but tell us how he contrasts with Justin Trudeau, especially for the Canadian voters right now.

Speaker 2 Sure. I mean, there's a generational difference.
That's a big one, right? Mark Carney is 60. He's got grown children.
He has worked in a variety of high-profile jobs.

Speaker 2 He was the governor of the Bank of Canada, which is the equivalent of the head of the Fed in the U.S. He was the governor of the Bank of England.

Speaker 2 He had a job at the UN, sort of directing sustainable climate initiatives.

Speaker 3 If the world truly wants a revolution towards a more sustainable, resilient, and fair energy system, the finance for it will be there.

Speaker 2 He's got this international resume. He has never served a day in elected office.
He is definitely not a politician.

Speaker 2 And his demeanor, whereas Justin Trudeau had this energy, this buoyancy, and this dramatic effect that he would often bring to a lot of what he did, Mark Carney is like the opposite of that.

Speaker 2 He's calmer, much more academic, much more corporate in a way. And what's really interesting about that, just to go back to Justin Trudeau for a second, trying to reach those millennial voters, Mr.

Speaker 2 Carney has brought back the boomers. He has brought back this voting cohort that is, they are reliable voters in every single election, and they are turning to him and they're saying, yeah, that guy.

Speaker 1 And let's talk about Carney in relation to his opposition. Tell people who Pierre Polyev is and what his appeal is in this election right now.

Speaker 2 Sure. So Pierre Polyev is in his mid-40s.
He's got two young kids. He really has cut his teeth over the years as being a politician who can really meet particular moments very well.

Speaker 2 And he rode to a tremendous degree of success, became leader of his party in the easing out of the pandemic era, where where the restrictions in Canada had been, in some cases, quite dramatic.

Speaker 2 People were chomping at the bit for freedom. They wanted the government out of their life.
And so he began to jump on this narrative.

Speaker 25 Let's remove the government gatekeepers to build more homes, grow more food, and produce more energy right here in Canada.

Speaker 2 That he was really successful in beating Justin Trudeau over the head with on a daily basis for like two years. And people responded.
Mr. Pagliov is a master of the rhetorical flourish.

Speaker 2 He loves slogans. He loves things that rhyme.

Speaker 26 Acts the tax, taxes up, costs up, crime's up, time's up.

Speaker 2 And, you know, some of that stuff really works for people because it makes the message stick.

Speaker 2 And he's been really successful with that message up until the moment or the series of moments in which Donald Trump got elected, Justin Trudeau stepped down, and Mark Carney got himself elected liberal leader.

Speaker 2 And that message track, while still very resonant with Canadians, just can't take enough support away from Mark Carney.

Speaker 1 I mean, I've heard Polyev referred to as Canadian Trump. Now, how does a Canadian Trump compete in an election where Trump has become such a boogeyman for Canadians?

Speaker 2 And therein lies the issue, right? When people watch Mr. Polyev or they listen to him, they come away thinking, ugh, it's like he's kind of Trumpy.

Speaker 26 Listen, I think to have 10 or 15,000 people at one political rally, this is a movement like we've never seen because people want change. They want to put our country first for a change.

Speaker 2 And it's in the way he speaks, it's in his rhetoric, the hyperbole, the sloganeering.

Speaker 26 Trudeau gets protection from the cancel culture, woke warriors. And I will replace the woke culture with a warrior culture, a common sense Canada first plan.

Speaker 2 And so when Mr. Polyev gives off an echo of that, it sends people away.

Speaker 14 Okay.

Speaker 1 And then, either way, whoever wins, how do they stand up to Trump differently than, say, Trudeau and Kearney have done so far?

Speaker 2 Yeah, this one's interesting. I mean, Mr.
Carney does have a lot of contacts and connections in the international geopolitical world.

Speaker 2 And, you know, he's made a point of saying that the old relationship with the United States is over. There is a new path forward.

Speaker 2 And so he'll have to figure out how to shape that path and what those conversations with Mr. Trump look like.
Conversely, Mr. Polyev takes a much more domestic-facing view of things, I think.

Speaker 2 In terms of standing up to Trump, he's promising to do things that rebuild our economy quite quickly, developing natural resources, building more homes. And so we'll see.
I don't know. I mean, Mr.

Speaker 2 Trump has said not nice things about Pierre Polyev.

Speaker 27 Well, I think his biggest problem is he's not a MAGA guy, you know? He's really not. He's not a Trump guy at all.

Speaker 2 Which is weird and funny, I guess. I don't know.
And he has been slightly more conciliatory, shall we say, to Mr. Kearney than he was ever to Justin Trudeau.
He has not referred to Mr.

Speaker 2 Kearney as Governor Kearney. He has referred to him as Prime Minister.
Wow.

Speaker 8 But we had a very good talk, the Prime Minister and myself. And I think things are going to work out very well between Canada and the United States.

Speaker 27 Yeah, please go ahead.

Speaker 2 So that's an interesting tonal switch.

Speaker 1 Same party, different attitude, eh?

Speaker 2 Same party, different attitude. And, you know, there's lots of folks in Canada who will say that some degree of the animosity that Mr.

Speaker 2 Trump has displayed to our country was born out of a personal animosity for Justin Trudeau. Just didn't like the guy.
They didn't get along. Famous clash when Canada hosted the G7.

Speaker 2 Well, he's too fast. It's all a grudge match.

Speaker 1 Rumors swirling that Melania crushes on Justin. I don't know.

Speaker 2 You know what? All politics is personal at the end of the day. And if you can't make a personal relationship with world leaders, that sometimes that's not going to work to your advantage.
Can Mr.

Speaker 2 Carney build that relationship with Mr. Trump? We'll see.
Can Mr. Polyev build that relationship with Mr.
Trump? We'll see.

Speaker 1 You can read Stephanie Levitz at theglobeandmail.com. Elbows up when we're back at Today Explain.

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Speaker 5 Canada is the second largest landmass, the first nation of hockey, and the best part of North America.

Speaker 1 My name is Sean Ramesfurum, Today Explained here with David Moscot, Canadian.

Speaker 31 Born in Peterborough, Ontario, and spent most of my young life in central Ontario. Although, incidentally, my late father was American, in case anyone is wondering if I might be a sleeper agent.

Speaker 23 I'm not. But I want to just get that out off the top just in case.

Speaker 1 David's also a political columnist and podcast host. And he says, perhaps unlike most Americans, Canadians are taking Trump's 51st state comments pretty seriously.

Speaker 33 Here, nobody really took it as a joke.

Speaker 35 It was at best an insult and at worst, a credible threat.

Speaker 15 And I think for a lot of people, the calculus was: okay, well, this might not happen.

Speaker 36 It probably won't happen in the sense that we're going to get invaded, troops going over the border.

Speaker 36 But when the hegemon and your neighbor along the world's longest undefended border, at least for now, starts talking about annexation, you think, okay, maybe this is something we should take seriously, you know, just in case.

Speaker 41 And of course, that accompanied real economic threats that we started to feel immediately.

Speaker 19 And so that was a real one-two punch that that hit and then meantime there were some americans including people like steve bannon saying china and russia the great powers and the united states fighting it out over the arctic is going to be the new great game of the 21st century canada you are thrust into the middle of that and quite frankly you're the great prize of that it's like okay well then we're listening So what did you do as a country?

Speaker 1 It's not like Justin Trudeau sent troops to the border, is it?

Speaker 37 Well, yes and no.

Speaker 32 No, not in the sense.

Speaker 23 We didn't send troops to the border to go defend because that would be an exercise in futility. We don't have that many troops to begin with.

Speaker 44 It's a huge border.

Speaker 24 Yeah, they're stretched a little thin as it is. It's a long border.

Speaker 32 But incidentally, as it happens, as Trump started in the early days, said, well, we're going to hit Canada with tariffs because of fentanyl and because of a lax border.

Speaker 8 The fentanyl

Speaker 23 is massive.

Speaker 32 The government, at the time, Justin Trudeau said, okay, well, we're going to start patrolling the border with Blackhawk helicopters.

Speaker 34 We're going to send drones.

Speaker 15 We're going to declare drug cartels terrorists.

Speaker 45 We launched a $1.3 billion border plan that is already showing results

Speaker 45 because we too are devastated by the scourge that is fentanyl.

Speaker 31 Incidentally, it turns out that border apprehensions, according to the White House, are down, but

Speaker 39 as you can imagine, tariffs are not.

Speaker 1 Okay, so there's some real practical reactions there. What about the cultural reaction?

Speaker 34 The cultural reaction has been fascinating because at no time in my life, I'm a spry 41 and a half, but at no time in my life have I seen this sort of surge of nationalism that's been so widespread and sustained, at least so far, and rapid.

Speaker 23 And it's manifested itself in all kinds of ways.

Speaker 44 We saw the booing of the star-spangled banner at sports events.

Speaker 1 Which was actually encouraged by the Prime Minister of Canada, if I recall correctly.

Speaker 11 And yeah, we're probably going to keep booing the American anthem.

Speaker 13 Yeah, there was a kind of hedging on that.

Speaker 45 But let me tell Americans, we're not booing you. We're not booing your teams.
We're not booing

Speaker 11 your players.

Speaker 45 We're booing a policy that is designed to hurt us.

Speaker 23 We pulled booze off the shelves from the United States.

Speaker 33 A handful of provinces here, including mine in Ontario and British Columbia, straight up said, okay, the state liquor distributor and retailer is simply not going to carry alcohol.

Speaker 1 And since then, it's only been Canadian spirits and beer.

Speaker 31 There was a return of the I Am Canadian, this iconic I Am Canadian beer commercial from the early 2000s.

Speaker 24 Hey,

Speaker 21 I'm not a lumberjack or a fur trader, and I don't live in any igloo or eat blubber or own a dog sled.

Speaker 42 Jeff Douglas talking about these stereotypical Canadian things, you know, has a flag waved on the screen in the background.

Speaker 20 I believe in peacekeeping, not policing. Diversity, not assimilation, and that the beaver is a truly proud and noble animal.

Speaker 31 You go to grocery stores and you see American products sitting there on the shelves while Canadian products are empty and even I was part of this.

Speaker 46 I went to the grocery store one day and I wanted to make poutine because I guess I felt like being a stereotype, which is something you shouldn't do every day because

Speaker 47 it's heavy.

Speaker 1 Especially as you've got to get to your 40s. Yeah,

Speaker 47 as soon as you get into your spry early 40s, don't eat poutine every day. I'm not that kind of doctor, but I think that's solid advice.

Speaker 23 And I went in and I picked up a can of gravy and I get to the cache and I look at it and it's called Americano.

Speaker 43 And I'm like, I'm like, I should have noticed this earlier.

Speaker 23 So I go back down, I haul my butt back down the aisle and I went and I checked the label to be sure. And sure enough, it comes from the United States.

Speaker 23 I put it back on the shelf and I got a different gravy.

Speaker 47 I walked back and left, paid for it, and left the store.

Speaker 1 There was even this great instructional video, right?

Speaker 1 Also, you know, comedic, but telling Canadians how to go about boycotting U.S.

Speaker 14 products, right?

Speaker 48 You were going to buy American maple syrup?

Speaker 40 Okay, that costs way more.

Speaker 48 So does freedom.

Speaker 23 Which they have. They're not traveling to the United States either.

Speaker 31 Bookings are way down.

Speaker 23 Border crossings, both for Canadians and Americans, are way down. And this is, you know, two deeply integrated economies, both economically and culturally.

Speaker 48 A trade relationship worth a trillion dollars a year.

Speaker 23 75% of Canadian exports go stateside.

Speaker 31 And people all of a sudden say, no, no, it's both an economic and cultural imperative that I start to push back against this.

Speaker 42 And it came out of nowhere because, you know, prior to Trump trash-talking Canada, threatening Canada, and levying tariffs, this wasn't really on the radar.

Speaker 1 And we'd be remiss to talk about the culture of the backlash in Canada without talking about elbows up. Could you explain that for people who didn't know what Mike Myers was saying on SNL?

Speaker 32 That's right.

Speaker 31 This has become both a rallying cry and a meme, and a little bit cringe in Canada.

Speaker 31 It was a genuine moment that's also been appropriated by politicians.

Speaker 37 Elbows up!

Speaker 49 And it's elbows up time. Ladies and gentlemen, Canada will never bend.
We will never kiss the gangster's ring.

Speaker 22 But let me ask you, Mr. Prime Minister, will there always be a Canada?

Speaker 8 There will always be a Canada.

Speaker 21 All right, elbows up, elbows up.

Speaker 34 People have on social media, in some cases, have put little emojis in their profiles with hashtags that say elbows up.

Speaker 31 And it comes from Mike Myers going on SNL, and he's wearing a Canada's Not For sales shirt, and he puts up his elbow and Malays elbows up, you know, in reference to the hockey expression that basically means, you know, get ready to fight, get ready to stand up for yourself.

Speaker 31 And some people liken it back to hockey legend Gordy Howe, who was quite famous for throwing elbows.

Speaker 1 Do you think it dissipates after the election?

Speaker 1 Or does that more so depend on Trump's threats that follow the election?

Speaker 34 Well, this is it.

Speaker 31 I mean, I think every time Trump opens his mouth and starts beaking off about the 51st state or threatening another round of tariffs,

Speaker 42 it comes back.

Speaker 31 Even if it settles a little bit, it comes back.

Speaker 31 And I think the suspicion and the anger and the sense of betrayal that is expressed culturally and politically is going to lead to a remaking of public policy that's going to lock in those changes.

Speaker 23 Because once you said, okay, well, I'm going to start shipping goods and services to other countries.

Speaker 31 I'm going to make my business plans based on that. I'm going to build a bigger east-west electricity grid instead of running it north-south.

Speaker 34 I'm going to ship, I'm going to build pipelines to ship oil and gas east-west and out on the ocean instead of to the south.

Speaker 31 Well, then you're kind of locked into that new arrangement because it's expensive and difficult to change it.

Speaker 34 And so as Mark Carney, the prime minister himself has said, you know, the relationship has fundamentally changed for good.

Speaker 31 And I think a lot of people feel that way.

Speaker 1 And are people mournful of it?

Speaker 35 I think mournful is exactly the right word because that's how I feel.

Speaker 31 Millions of us really deeply love Americans, but don't love what the American administration is doing to our country and our relationship.

Speaker 23 And it feels like those ties that bind have been severed by that administration.

Speaker 36 And yeah, we're mourning that loss

Speaker 32 because it kind of feels like losing a family member.

Speaker 48 I can't even share for the Red Wings anymore.

Speaker 37 Do I have to be a Habs fan?

Speaker 47 No, God knows I'm not going to be a Leafs fan, but do I have to be a Habs fan?

Speaker 14 Ouch!

Speaker 14 Yeah, I know.

Speaker 46 There is a kind of light jokey side to this, a kind of spy versus spy side to it.

Speaker 24 But then you start digging and you're like, oh,

Speaker 31 the Trump tariffs could decimate entire industries and put cities out of work and industries out of work and drive Canada into a recession and people would lose their homes and you're like, that jokey bit stops at the water's edge.

Speaker 35 And so the cultural expressions are going to reflect that.

Speaker 33 And so, you know, maybe that means getting a Habs jersey.

Speaker 1 Hey, Goleaf Sco. David Moscrop is working on a book about Canadian nationalism and he's got a sub stack.
You can find it at davidmoscrop.com. That's M-O-S-C-R-O-P.

Speaker 1 Abhishai Artsy produced our show today. That's A-R-T-S-Y.

Speaker 1 Amina Al-Sadi edited. Andrea Christens, Doctor, and Patrick Boyd mixed.
Gabrielle Burbay and Laura Bullard. Check the facts and wait.
My spidey sense is tingling.

Speaker 1 It must be because it's Laura's birthday. Happy birthday, Laura.
From everyone at Today Explained.

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