Conclave (2025)

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To explain.

Catherine Kaleidas. Do they explain?

Catherine Kaleidas is a research associate at the Institute of Orthodox Christian Studies in England's Cambridge. We reached out there to ask her about Conclave 2025.

Yeah, so the Catholic Church is like so many, I think, global religious bodies in a sort of moment of transition, right? We're in a moment of greater religious transition than we have been since the Enlightenment, right? Really in the past 300 years. And there's a couple of factors.
You know, we all sort of, particularly in the United States, have a really good understanding of this idea of kind of culture war and this divide between progressives and traditionalists, which is definitely a factor in this decision.

But there's also a geographic element to this as well.

The Catholic Church, like Christianity writ large, is in demographic trouble in Western Europe and North America.

Yet it is growing exponentially in Asia, Africa, Latin America, places that are kind of collectively called the global South. The Catholic population in Africa has grown significantly, from around 185 million in 2013 to an estimated 230 million by the end of 2025.
The Catholic Church in South Korea has shown exponential growth in the last 50 years. There were about half a million Catholics in the country in the 1960s, but today there are nearly 6 million.
And so there's increasing pressure to have a pope who reflects that reality. Of course, this last pope was the first Latin American pope.
He was from Argentina, but he was also the son of Italian immigrants, right? So there's this kind of, he sort of occupied this middle space. I'm sure the church is elated to be growing in the global south, but I'm sure it's equally miserable to be shrinking in Western Europe and North America.
Why is it shrinking in Western Europe and North America? Do you know? So this is the conundrum. Most every bit of good data we have about why people leave the Catholic Church and leave Christianity writ large is largely centered around these issues of gender and sexuality, primarily the failure of the Catholic Church to become more progressive with respect to women, with respect to LGBT people.
And this is the tension then, because these are the factors that are driving people out of the Catholic Church in North America and Western Europe. And yet at the same time, people are much more conservative on these issues in places like Africa and Asia, where the church is growing.
Latin America is a little bit more of a wild card, but overall, Catholics are more socially conservative in those places. Got it.
So there's this tension in the Catholic Church, just like there's this tension most everywhere we look right now, between progressivism and conservatism. How is that going to factor in to this conclave to decide the next pope? Well, for many people, particularly conservatives, traditionalists in the Catholic Church, the reign of Pope Francis was one that was very, very difficult.
And they see this as an opportunity to return to a more traditional papacy in the model of Pope Benedict, Pope John Paul II. And there are some people in the progressive camp, particularly in North America and Western Europe, who don't think Pope Francis went far enough, that he didn't go far enough in addressing inclusion for women and LGBT people, and that he didn't go far enough in addressing the sexual abuse scandal, which has, of course, been at the center of Catholic life in many ways and Catholic politics for the past two decades.
The conclave that elected Pope Francis met in 2013, How will this conclave in 2025 look differently from that one? The primary way it will look different is that Pope Francis has now appointed 80% of the cardinal electors. So that is the cardinals in the College of Cardinals who are allowed to vote for Pope.
80% of those, 108 of the 135 have been appointed by Pope Francis. Is that the papal equivalent of like trying to pack the Supreme Court? Yeah, a little bit.
Absolutely. And, you know, I would say about 50 of those electors are really what we might call like a pastoralist in the image of Pope Francis.
I think it's important to remember that as much as we think of Pope Francis as sort of a reforming pope, he didn't change Catholic doctrine all that much, right? He pursued Catholic doctrine in a way that one might call much more pastoral. So, you know, the example of the little boy whose atheist father had died, Pope Francis didn't change Catholic doctrine to say that non-believers, that the unbaptized would go to heaven.
What he did is he told that little boy that his father was probably in heaven, right? that's a different bent than changing catholic doctrine and i would say you know 50 50 of the

cardinals now give or take um depending on how you want to cut this, are really in that theological, pastoral, papal model. Okay, so who are the contenders in this conclave? Do we have some frontrunners? Yes, we have some pretty clear frontrunners at this point, particularly in the immediate period after the Pope's death.
Some people have really emerged. In the traditionalist camp, the real frontrunner is a man named Cardinal Robert Serra from Guinea.
All the frontrunners in the traditionalist camp, more or less, are Africans. There is a

Hungarian, but more or less they're Africans. So Cardinal Robert Serra, if you go on a lot of

traditionalist Catholic social media at the moment, you are going to see a lot of love

for Cardinal Robert Serra. He is a very traditionalist cardinal, a very traditionalist

theologian and pastor. Should not a biological man use the men's restroom? How simple can that concept be? Certainly he's very traditional,

one might even say a bit draconian

on issues of gender and sexuality,

but also on liturgical issues,

questions like the Latin Mass,

things that people outside the Catholic Church

or outside of sort of religious circles

don't tend to debate.

You also have sort of the far-reach,

what I would call the far-reach progressives, right? People like Cardinal José Mendoza from Portugal. He is only 59, and so it is very unlikely he would become pope, quite frankly.
But he's very progressive, I think, in the ways that we sort of think about progressiveness, even in an American political sense. So, for example, he has shown some real sympathies for a Benedictine nun who is interested in the ordination of women and who is pro-choice.
He's the far end of Cardinal Sarah, right? What we'll probably get, though, and right now Vegas, the betting odds, the last time I checked, we're on this Filipino cardinal. You can always trust the Vegas betting odds because people actually put money on it, right? A holy, holy bet.
Yeah, love it. Like, actually bet on it.
Cardinal Luis Tagale from the Philippines. This is, I think, the inspired choice not to be too punny about it.
He is sometimes called the Asian Francis. So he is theologically, I would say, very moderate, but pastorally sort of open in the way that we saw with Francis.
Many things are changing, but the living conditions of some people have remained stagnant or even worse. And I call this a scandal.
The Philippines is one of the most Catholic countries in the world. It's in the heart of Asia.
You would get a non-white pope, which I think is important at this point, who is also sort of in keeping with the general ideological, theological, philosophical mood of the conclave at the moment. Got it.
And you didn't mention perhaps the most delicious choice, Pier Batista Pizzaballa. Why is that? I think that particularly his very outspoken position on the conflict in Gaza would probably disqualify him at this point.
Interesting, because another famous Catholic who had outspoken views on the conflict in Gaza was Pope Francis himself. Is that to say that that turned off this conclave? I think that it's one thing when you have a sitting pope who's able to take those hard lines and who has developed a good relationship, you know, around Catholic relations with Judaism and Israel.
Pope Francis had a great record for a pope in terms of his relationship with Israel and his relationship with Judaism. It's different when you bring in a new Pope, I would argue.
Hmm. So it sounds like Asian Francis is the favorite and it sounds like Asian Francis would perhaps just, you know, be a passing of the baton, so to speak, in terms of Francis's progressive politics.
What does that mean for the Catholic Church in the years ahead, if indeed Asian Francis is selected? I think if we have Cardinal Tagale become the next pope, it is a sort of continuation of the Franciscan model. First, it does signal, in some ways, this not turning away from Western Europe and North America, but an acknowledgement that where the church is growing, what the average Catholic looks like is changing.
I think for many people, this approach, this what we might call a Francis approach,

to the tensions within the Catholic Church is the way in which the majority of the cardinals understand the best approach to be. If you allow flexibility, regional flexibility, local flexibility, parish level flexibility in how that doctrine is applied, you can reconcile these real tensions over ideology, over theology, over doctrine, over morality that exists within the Catholic

Church today and really exists within every Christian tradition and every society at this

point.

So if we get Cardinal Tegale, we might continue to see Mariachi Mass in the southwestern United States. Absolutely.
I think in terms of liturgical reforms, the liturgical reforms of Vatican II and beyond, as much as there are people on traditionalist Latin maps, Facebook groups,

and discords around the world who would like to see that change,

no pope is going to be able to unring that bell.

I don't think even Cardinal Sarah could do that.

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This is Today Explained. Before Pope Francis died, the biggest Catholic news of the week was going to be the canonization of the first millennial saint.
We here at Today Explained were on top of the news because we like to keep tabs on our millennials, but we were not nearly as on top of it as this guy. Michael DiGiovine.
I'm a professor of anthropology at Westchester University. And we spoke with Michael this morning.
There was a pizza box with a cartoon Pope Francis on it sitting right behind him. Hey, you know, Philly people that we are we're proud people.
You know, I say we I'm from North Jersey. So pizza is really important.
So I wouldn't even call this pizza. But anyway, it's a pizza boxes that says, that says, welcome Pope Francis, Philadelphia, 2015.
There's a picture of the Pope waving in front of the skyline of Philadelphia. So.
All right, enough about the pizza onto the main event. The first millennial saint, Carlo Cutis.
Why was this kid so important to Pope Francis?

I think it was one of his big projects that he did. The idea emerged probably right as Pope Francis was becoming pope.
Carlo had died in 2006. Word was spreading.
I mean, what happens with these popular saints is that there is this grassroots movement that usually happens.

And then when it gets really big, then the church kind of comes in and makes it official. So he was born in London to Italian parents who were business people.
The father was in insurance and the mom was in publishing. um was raised by nannies from Ireland and Poland, so they were the ones that were religious.
The parents always said they weren't really practicing Catholics. They weren't very religious.
But somehow, I guess, that religiosity passed to him from his nannies who raised him. And he was already kind of seen as a kid, at least a lot of the stories go, as somebody who was very, who was a religious but down-to-earth kid.
And because of course he used to say, I have everything, I have a house, I have the love of my parents, I have all what I need, and these people are without anything. How can I be, you know, quite peaceful seeing this poorness? So there's a story of course where this, he's getting maybe bullied in school, like a lot of teenagers suffer.
So it's a very relatable story. And one of the nannies said, why don't you just hit him back? Like why don't you stick up for yourself? And he said said well jesus wouldn't want me to do that a

lot of the stories emphasize the fact that he you know had some struggle he loved nutella and had struggles with his weight you know and self-esteem it's very very relatable he played halo so it's not like he's playing only you know he's playing the playstation he's playing pokemon and halo he played halo and now he's gonna have a halo yeah and now he's gonna have a halo there you go but I mean it's not a very like religious

game right I mean it's kind of a shoot up

game now he's gonna have a halo yeah now he's gonna have a halo there you go but i mean it's not a very like religious game right i mean it's kind of a shoot-up game sort of but yes he will have hopefully he will have a halo i mean he is the saint of the internet uh or he will be probably um and that's because he did use not only playstations but he he was a computer programmer and he programmed some of the earliest online virtual exhibitions, one on Eucharistic miracles, which are miracles that the bread, that Catholics believe not just that the bread is a symbolic of the host, but also that it actually is Jesus's body. And so, he did this whole repository, this database that he made web pages for each of these back in the early 2000s.
He put that online and then Marian apparitions. So when Mary appears to people, he did a whole virtual exhibition on that.
To get a halo, you gotta do a few miracles. Those who are familiar with the Catholic Church will know.
What were young Carlo's miracles? There was a young boy, I think he was five years old, his name was Matthias, who had, he was born with an annular pancreas. And an annular pancreas means that the pancreas was wrapped around the intestine.
And so it was very, very difficult for him to keep food down or to really get nourished. So he was getting malnourished, not because he wasn't being fed enough, but because he had this pancreas problem.
And so they took him there to venerate the, you know, to see the relic and to venerate. And the mom said, what do you, you know, what do you want to ask Carlo? What do you want to ask God through Carlo? And he said, I just don't want to vomit as much.
I don't want to throw up as much. You know, that was his big thing.
And it was very, people heard it, right? So it was verified that he said this in the presence of the relic. When he went home, apparently he ate a whole steak and French fries and didn't throw up and he was, the pancreas looked normal and there's no medical explanation for it.
So a miraculous meal. With that steak.
It was steak. I mean, that's heavy duty.
What about the second miracle? Is there a second one? There was a Costa Rican student, a girl who was studying in Florence, Italy, and had a bicycle accident, had a traumatic brain injury. It was very bad.
And the mom came and Florence is not so, so far from Assisi where Carlo is buried. And she made it just about two hours away.
And she made the trip to Assisi prayed at this, at this point in time, his body is on display for veneration. And that's really fascinating how he looks.
And it's a really important part of his story. He's in jeans and Nikes and, you know, that kind of thing.
Very, very relatable. And she prayed, the mom prayed in front of the sarcophagus.
And when she got back to Florence, apparently her daughter was awake and, you know, inexplicably cured from that. So that was verified at the end of last year by Pope Francis, and he declared, okay, everything is set, and we're going to do this ceremony during the Jubilee year.
And unfortunately, he didn't last. But I know that that was a big deal for him, because this new saint really epitomizes all of the messaging that Pope Francis has done and kind of the reforms of the church.
How many new saints are there? How many did Pope Francis sign off on? There's a lot. He officially canonized 942 saints.
Whoa! That's a lot. I do have to say that number sounds bigger than it is because 813 of those were actually one group of martyrs from the 1400s.
But even if you take away, you count that as one, that's still like 150 saints. For 12 years, he did Mother Teresa at the beginning.
He also did three popes. He did all the three modern popes, Pope John XXIII, who started Vatican II, Pope Paul VI, who kind of concluded Vatican II, and then Pope John Paul II as well.
So, you know, those four are really huge saints. And then Carlo would have been the fifth really, you know, major kind of rock star kind of saints that people still remembered that they related to, that they had, you know, in their mind.
Yeah, you're talking about this kid in league with Mother Teresa and Pope John Paul. Is he really that big a deal for the Catholic Church? I think he is.
And I think, you know, Mother Teresa is a great example, more than Pope John Paul II, because, you know, there are kind of two classes of these saints, the popular saints, and then there's kind of the religious people like popes and priests, who a lot of people don't really even identify with, but, you know, the church hierarchy kind of makes saints. But Pope John Paul II was very transcendent.
I mean, he was a rock star in his life. People thought he was, you know, a living saint at the time.
It was very clear that he was, he really guided the

church through communism and all of that. So, he was really important.
But Mother Teresa, I think, is more along the lines of who Carlo is and more along the lines of what the message of what saints should be that Francis gives us. Pope Francis had really changed the Church and kind of focused less on the pomp and circumstance and really doubled down on being humble, being merciful, giving to the poor, and to be, you know, just the best normal person that you can be.
And are we going to assume that one day Pope Francis himself will be a saint? It would be something he would say that I don't need to be canonized to have been a model for good behavior. That being said, you know, we'll have to see what people

think in five years, if they're going to open a cause, which I'm sure they are, to see whether

he would be officially recognized as a saint. But I think his theology is such that you do not need,

you know, the official prefix in front, you know, the saint in front to be a saint next door, to be an everyday

saint, to be a model, to help other people. His theology would say that it doesn't matter.
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