How the YIMBYs won

Speaker 1 Hello, my name is Sean Ramaser. My host today explained along with Noel King, and I can still remember the first time I heard about NIMBYs.

Speaker 1 You know, not in my backyard types.

Speaker 2 Ah, cool. Apartments, yeah.
Apartments are good for society, but don't put them behind my backyard and block my view.

Speaker 3 Put them somewhere else. All right, boys, let's pack it up.

Speaker 1 And I also remember when I started hearing about YIMBYs. Yes, in my backyard types.

Speaker 3 Oh, cool. apartments, yes.
Apartments are good for society. Please put them behind my backyard and block my view.

Speaker 4 You know what? You can build them on top of me.

Speaker 1 And I can even remember when it seemed like the Yimbies won, because that kind of just happened.

Speaker 1 The best evidence is out in California, and we're heading there, at least spiritually, on the show today.

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Speaker 5 My name is Henry Grabar, and I'm a staff writer at Slate.

Speaker 1 And though

Speaker 1 you live in Boston, we're here to talk to you about California.

Speaker 1 Why you?

Speaker 5 Well, I think if you're interested in housing politics, as I am, California looms pretty large for the rest of the country, both as a cautionary tale about what not to do, and then from time to time, like in this instance, as an example of how reform is possible.

Speaker 1 Ooh, which reform are you talking about specifically for those not in the know?

Speaker 5 I am talking about the latest round of California housing reforms, which were reforms to the California Environmental Quality Act in such a way that reformers hope will be a very big deal in terms of permitting the state to build more homes.

Speaker 1 Okay, and it's my assumption that to talk about the reforms, we first have to talk about the act. So let's talk about the California Environmental Quality Act.

Speaker 1 What's its story?

Speaker 5 So the California Environmental Quality Act, which, by the way, everybody in California calls it CEQA. So I think we should do that.

Speaker 1 Okay, CEQA.

Speaker 5 So, CEQA is passed, signed by Ronald Reagan in 1970. Richard Nixon

Speaker 5 creates the Environmental Protection Agency.

Speaker 10 We can make 1972 the best year ever for environmental progress.

Speaker 10 The time has come for man to make his peace with nature.

Speaker 5 It is part of a bipartisan push in the United States to protect the environment in a systemic way that goes beyond just you know the creation of national parks. I mean here we're talking about

Speaker 5 cleaning the air, cleaning the water, regulating regulating industrial pollution.

Speaker 5 And in the context of California, there's a particular focus on forcing the government to reckon with its own actions in terms of the types of projects that it takes on.

Speaker 5 So we're talking about interstate highways, dams, nuclear power plants, all those kinds of things are in the crosshairs when CEQA is passed in 1970.

Speaker 1 Just a couple of heavyweight Republicans passing landmark environmental legislation.

Speaker 5 Politics used to be pretty different, huh?

Speaker 1 How big a deal is this law once it's signed?

Speaker 5 Well, I think there's some ambiguity right at the start about what exactly this law is going to apply to.

Speaker 5 And then there's a big court case that happens in 1972 in the California Supreme Court where the court decides that this law applies to basically any project that requires any kind of government oversight.

Speaker 5 So basically anything that you want to do. Huh.
And in particular, this case concerns housing. And so when the Supreme Court decides is

Speaker 5 from now on, all housing in California is subject to environmental review under the under CEQA. And this is just a bombshell.
I mean, nobody's really prepared for this. In San Francisco,

Speaker 5 the city decides to halt new building permits until they can figure out what this means. And Los Angeles has these disclaimers

Speaker 5 saying that

Speaker 5 they can't be liable if these building permits are later found to be unconstitutional. So it is a big surprise for the development industry and city planners in California.

Speaker 1 And over the years, does it come to be regarded as a good thing or a bad thing or both or what?

Speaker 5 I think that depends on whom you're speaking to. Environmentalists in California think of this as

Speaker 5 part of what they consider the state's really agenda setting on environmental issues for the entire nation, right?

Speaker 5 And it's true that CEQA has helped the state preserve a number of its natural treasures. But the flip side of this is that housing production in California has slowed to a crawl.

Speaker 5 And the consequences of that have become very apparent to anybody who lives in or visits California.

Speaker 5 It's apparent in the number of people who leave the state every year, citing affordability issues and sort of fan out across the Mountain West and the Sun Belt.

Speaker 4 More people are moving out of California than any other state in the country, according to a new study by Pods.

Speaker 12 Your Governor Newsom this year was nominated as the number one real estate agent for the state of Florida.

Speaker 9 Only 16%

Speaker 3 of Californians can afford to buy a home.

Speaker 5 It is apparent in the large numbers of homeless people who live on the streets and in their cars in California cities because they can't find a place to live.

Speaker 5 And so CEQA has also begun to be seen as part of the problem, part of the reason that it's so difficult to build new housing in the state.

Speaker 1 So when does a movement to reform this landmark piece of legislation get underway?

Speaker 5 It's been going on for at least a decade. Governor Jerry Brown, who was Newsom's predecessor, talked about it,

Speaker 5 couldn't get it done.

Speaker 5 But it's certainly been one of those issues that's always discussed in Sacramento as, well, if we really want to make it easier to build housing, we could remove this very strict and powerful law that governs the creation of any type of new housing that anybody would want to build.

Speaker 1 But Moonbeam Jerry Brown doesn't get it done. It's his successor, Gavin Newsom.

Speaker 5 And it wasn't easy.

Speaker 5 I mean, Newsom's been in office for almost a decade, and he and a number of sort of YIMBY-affiliated legislators have chipped away at the California housing problem with all of these little bills.

Speaker 5 That they've done several that are focused on ADUs or accessory dwelling units, right? Like backyard cottages or granny flats.

Speaker 5 They've done bills focused on transit-oriented development and on affordable housing and on student housing.

Speaker 5 But CEQA has remained the kind of elephant in the room that no one was was willing to take on until now.

Speaker 1 Huh.

Speaker 5 And then also I would say that there's been a kind of

Speaker 5 changing sense within the environmental movement and within the labor movement about

Speaker 5 what CEQA does and the extent to which it might be curtailing the creation of new housing in the state.

Speaker 1 And who's mad about changes to CEQA?

Speaker 5 Who's mad? Well, obviously a number of environmental groups are upset.

Speaker 5 But the other group that's been upset, and I think this will come as a surprise to people who are not versed in California politics, is labor unions.

Speaker 5 The State Building and Construction Trades Council was ultimately neutral on this bill.

Speaker 5 They say that if you allow projects to go forward without CEQA review,

Speaker 5 you get rid of this moment of negotiation that compels these builders to employ union labor and to create these safer, highly paid jobs in construction in California cities.

Speaker 1 It occurs to me that Gavin Newsom has maybe grand ambitions beyond running one of the biggest economies in the world, the most populous state in the country.

Speaker 1 Does this have anything to do with his ambitions for maybe holding national office? I don't know, the White House?

Speaker 5 I think what he can say and what he will say as he talks about this achievement is that California has recognized the severity of their housing crisis and they are willing to take steps previously considered unthinkable to fix it, right?

Speaker 5 He thinks of this as part of his track record as a problem solver who is willing to negotiate and get things done.

Speaker 13 It was too urgent, too important.

Speaker 13 to allow the process to unfold as it has for the last generation.

Speaker 1 But deregulating, freeing up development, letting industry do industry, these are things that you hear Republicans saying.

Speaker 1 This is Gavin Newsome tack into the middle because these problems that they're having in California around housing are not just California problems.

Speaker 5 Yes, I hear you on that. And I've seen the framing of this reform as being a kind of setback for the environmental movement.

Speaker 5 And I think in this case, there's a plausible case to be be made, and many pro-housing groups have made this case, that it reflects a different understanding of environmentalism.

Speaker 14 What we have done here is made absolutely needed housing easier to build, at the same time, advancing, not derailing our environmental goals.

Speaker 9 It's a very straightforward and intuitive bill.

Speaker 9 If it's good for the environment for a housing project to get built, then those projects should be exempt from CEQA, the California Environmental Quality Act.

Speaker 5 And then environmentalism in the 21st century is no longer merely about can we save this tree from being chopped down, but also are we living sustainable lifestyles in a larger sense?

Speaker 5 And, you know, the largest contributor to emissions in this country is transportation. And so if you block housing from being built in an urban neighborhood in a large city,

Speaker 5 those people

Speaker 5 still need houses, right? And so

Speaker 5 they might go and they might live 40 miles inland and drive 40 miles every day to go to work, or they might leave California altogether and move to a place like Dallas or Orlando, where they'll drive 40 miles pretty much wherever they live.

Speaker 5 And so maybe this CEQA reform reflects a new understanding about environmentalism and one that suggests that California actually is a pretty sustainable place to live.

Speaker 15 So the bill essentially recognizes housing that is close close to existing infrastructure, that is close to jobs and public transit, results in lower greenhouse gas emissions and is good for the environment because it means people are driving shorter distances or perhaps not even driving at all.

Speaker 17 Dense housing is green housing. And I'm happy to say that this week, California finally internalized that truth.

Speaker 5 And across the U.S., we are seeing a very hard time building enough housing to to accommodate their populations, right?

Speaker 5 And so, in that context, I think if these places, these other places, don't start to reform their development policies now, then they will wind up like California in the years to come in a bad way.

Speaker 5 In a bad way, like not like palm trees and surf, but like million-dollar houses and people living in vans.

Speaker 1 That was Henry Grabar. The last time he was on the show, he was talking about parking because he's the author of Paved Paradise, How Parking Explains the World.

Speaker 1 When we return on today, explained how housing explains our world.

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Speaker 13 Who?

Speaker 1 Today, Explained from Vox, Marina Balatnikova works at Vox. She's an editor who sometimes writes, and her most recent writing was about housing, a subject we've covered plenty in years past.

Speaker 1 But we asked her for an update on the crisis.

Speaker 3 So, housing is a lot more expensive in the United States today than it was several decades ago. And the average, I thought this was kind of stunning, the average monthly mortgage payment

Speaker 3 is in 2024 was over $2,500, which is

Speaker 3 far and away above the $1,400

Speaker 3 payment that was averaged just three years earlier.

Speaker 1 And we heard about this CEQA law in California from 1970 that really slowed development in that state.

Speaker 1 But from what you're saying, it sounds like there's a host of other factors that are leading to this crisis.

Speaker 3 Yeah, there are the housing crisis that is at the root of so many of our national problems is it's not just a technical policy failure, but a logical end point of

Speaker 3 that cherished American ideal. And what I mean by that is,

Speaker 3 think about how the United States builds housing.

Speaker 3 Since the end of World War II, our housing supply has been built overwhelmingly in the form of suburbs and sprawling single-family homes radiating ever outward from city centers.

Speaker 3 So instead of building cities up with density, which had been the normal pattern before, we largely kind of just built out and out.

Speaker 3 And the problem with that is you can only sprawl so much before it doesn't work anymore.

Speaker 3 Either you run out of land because you hit a mountain or an ocean or a literal physical barrier, or you get so far from the city center that people, it doesn't make sense for people to live there anymore.

Speaker 3 So we've built out suburbs really far in all of the really desirable parts of the country, like the Northeast, California,

Speaker 3 and increasingly in the Sunbelt Belt too, which

Speaker 3 has been prized, you know, celebrated for a long time for being relatively affordable compared to the coasts.

Speaker 3 These suburbs are

Speaker 3 getting really expensive.

Speaker 3 They're also low density, so in theory, they ought to have room for plenty more people.

Speaker 3 That's impossible to do. It's illegal to do in most of the United States

Speaker 3 because, you know, unfortunately, I have to use the Z word, which is zoning. But zoning is just a a fancy way of saying it's local rules on what kinds of things can be built where.

Speaker 3 Zoning has made it so that the overwhelming majority of residential land in the United States cannot contain anything besides a detached single-family home.

Speaker 3 Apartments are banned, duplexes are banned, triple-deckers are banned. There's little capacity to incrementally densify in the communities that already exist.

Speaker 3 And some listeners might be thinking, well, wait a minute, I see these big fancy apartment buildings. Some people know them as gentrification buildings going up all around me.

Speaker 3 What do you mean it's illegal to build them?

Speaker 3 And it's true that we're building them. They're going up on

Speaker 3 a really small share of residential land. And most Americans live on suburbs.
Most of that land,

Speaker 3 you can't intensify beyond a single family home. And so...

Speaker 3 The suburban dream offered Americans this implicit bargain. We'll freeze our communities in amber.
They'll never have to change, never have to become more dense.

Speaker 3 And instead, we can accommodate population growth by sprawling out forever.

Speaker 3 That's been the engine of housing construction. And it is,

Speaker 3 I think it's fair to say that it's failing us.

Speaker 1 You mentioned suburbs like in the Northeast and California, which I'm guessing are a little older in some cases at least than those in the Sunbelt.

Speaker 1 Did like Sunbelt suburbs learn anything from the mistakes that were maybe made in California or the Northeast.

Speaker 18 This housing crisis in California keeps getting even worse.

Speaker 14 Massachusetts is, has, was, and will continue to do a terrible job of building housing.

Speaker 19 There's no two ways about it. It is practically impossible to buy a home unless you are essentially wealthy these days.

Speaker 3 Yeah, the coastal suburbs in California and the Northeast are much older and belong to metro areas that built out much earlier than the Sunbelt.

Speaker 3 You know, Phoenix and Las Vegas, these are places that grew from just desert towns to massive metropolises since World War II.

Speaker 3 And part of the big spark for this story I wrote was that I encountered the leading urban economists, Ed Glaser and Joe Giorco.

Speaker 3 They write about the the collapse in housing construction in the Sun Belt over the last few decades.

Speaker 3 That happened on the coasts long ago. And what the researchers find now is that the same pattern is sort of repeating itself in the Sun Belt

Speaker 3 where

Speaker 3 cities like Dallas, Atlanta, Phoenix, Miami had really, really high rates of housing growth in the early 2000s, the 90s, and it has since plummeted to rates almost as low as coastal cities that are barely building anything like Los Angeles.

Speaker 3 And it really surprised them because the Sun Belt is celebrated for being friendly to building stuff.

Speaker 3 The fundamentals of housing in that region are not so different from

Speaker 3 the coasts in the sense that it has been population and housing growth in the Sun Belt has been overwhelmingly driven by suburban sprawl since the end of, you know, since the end of World War II.

Speaker 1 Right. So we talked about reforming CEQA in California, which sounds like a very California solution because most states don't have a CEQA.

Speaker 1 What do we need to see in other states to really get to the heart of this crisis?

Speaker 3 Yeah, so

Speaker 3 major, you know, comprehensive reforms to zoning to make it easier to build different types of housing, higher densities of housing.

Speaker 3 So, during the pandemic, Austin had a huge run-up in rents because so many people were moving there. And pretty quickly, the city responded with changes to make it easier to build housing.

Speaker 3 It also made it easier to build taller buildings. And the result has been that in the last few years, it permitted new homes faster than almost anywhere else.
And rents are down

Speaker 3 perhaps over 20% since mid-2023. and that's huge.
It's the difference between paying $2,000 a month for an apartment versus $1,400 a month.

Speaker 3 And for a lot of people, that's the difference between being able to stay in Austin and being priced out. Similar things are happening in other places.

Speaker 3 Minneapolis famously ended all single-family exclusive zoning in 2018.

Speaker 3 Montana has made it. a lot easier to build apartments and ADUs.

Speaker 3 Oregon has made it a lot easier to build duplexes, triplexes, other multifamily housing.

Speaker 3 So we're seeing the contours of a major shift in how housing in America gets regulated and built.

Speaker 1 Does that mean that the Yimbies have won and the NIMBYs have at long last lost?

Speaker 3 Yes and no.

Speaker 3 We've seen a remarkably fast change in consensus on housing policy across cities and states, states, both blue and red, in the last several years. And that's a really promising sign.

Speaker 3 It hasn't yet translated into

Speaker 3 relief in housing prices because there's such a large gap to make up. I think the momentum of the last several years

Speaker 3 has been remarkable and more than anyone in the Yembe movement could have expected five years ago or so. And there's reason to be optimistic.

Speaker 1 Our colleague Marina Balatnikova making her Today Explained debut.

Speaker 1 Iconic. Marina's with Vox's Future Perfect section.
They're all about making the world work better. This episode was made in collaboration with them.

Speaker 1 It was produced by Devin Schwartz, fact-checked by Laura Bullard mixed by Patrick Boyd and edited by Miranda Kennedy, who's still in the club. What's that, you ask? Who else works here?

Speaker 1 Well, let's just say Peter Balinon Rosen, Andrea Kristen's daughter, Gabrielle Burbay, Denise Guerra, Rebecca Ibara, Abhishai Artsi, Hadima Wagdi, Miles Bryan, and Noel King from the Apple Store.

Speaker 1 Our supervising editor is Amina Al-Sadi, and our deputy executive producer is Jolie Myers. We use music by Breakmaster Cylinder and listen to music by Justin Bieber.
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