Is Biden In or Out? with Jessica Yellin

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Welcome back to We Can Do Hard Things.

We are in a time that is testing that theory.

We are here to walk together with you through these

very odd, scary, destabilizing times we are in.

And with us to do that, to help us understand what the hell is going on, what has been going on in the last few days, what is going on behind the scenes, what we can expect, is our dear friend, Jessica Yellen.

She has been with us so many times and is always a very stable force of fact,

and trying to take it down a notch so we can stay grounded and know what to do next.

Jessica Yellen is the founder of News Not Noise, a pioneering Webby award-winning independent news brand.

Over 1 million subscribers and followers across Instagram and other digital media rely on Jessica and News Not Noise to understand what matters, which experts to trust, and to manage their information overload.

She is the former chief White House correspondent for CNN and an Emmy and Gracie award-winning political correspondent for ABC, MSNBC, and CNN.

Follow her on Instagram, Twitter, and Facebook at Jessica Yellen.

That's Y-E-L-L-I-N.

You could also find the News Not Noise newsletter on Substack.

Jessica, thank you.

This is a crazy time, and you have made time for us once again, and we are grateful for it.

I'm so happy to be with you because I get some calm from you.

And I'm trying to do my best to stay centered, but I could use the community.

So it's great to see you.

We were just talking about how

checking in to see how you were and we're saying like we, it feels like it's a very Herculean task to take care of everything that needs to be taken care of right now.

And so taking care of each other and ourselves feels very important.

So

We hope that everyone's listening is taking care of themselves.

And let's just jump in.

We had originally scheduled this conversation to try to understand what is happening in the Democratic Party, in the Biden decision, whose decision it is, whether he stays or gets replaced.

And in the few days since then,

there was a shooting at Trump that is being referred to as an assassination attempt.

The FBI has declared it that.

at one of his rallies.

And so it brings front and center the violence of this time.

And so we just, let's talk about that first, see what's going on over there and in the convention with the new VP announcement for him.

And then we'll get into the Democrats.

But

tell us what we know about what happened at the rally.

It's also challenging to talk about because the minute we start to pursue, I start to pursue one story, something else.

ginormous erupts and we change you know to the next thing what happened at the rally there was a really kind of inexplicable security breach.

I can't tell you how many Secret Service protected events I've attended in my career.

And one of the most basic things is that the buildings in the immediate perimeter either have a sniper on top or have a guard at the door to ensure nobody can get to the roof.

It's just sort of 101.

Like it's a weird thing of political coverage.

You get used to being in a place surrounded by snipers.

So, first, there was nobody protecting a roof that was just 400 feet from the stage.

And somehow a gunman

who was only 20 years old was able to get off enough shots to kill one person, a firefighter, and graze former President Trump's ear.

And he's saying that because he turned his head in the moment before that shot was fired, he survived.

Had he not turned his head, we would be having a very different conversation right now.

So there's, I mean, we could talk about how did this happen, all the ass cover that's come down after that.

This kid has no, like the FBI doesn't know his motive.

And I would just caution folks.

Remember, Reagan was shot in the, in 1981 by somebody who wanted to get the actor, an actress's attention, right?

It isn't always politically motivated.

And in fact, what we know about him is that he was a registered Republican and that this would have been the first election that he was voting in.

I'm not saying, I'm saying this neither here nor there.

He also apparently might have contributed $15 to a left-leaning cause too.

So there's, there's no basis on which to ascribe any motive at this point.

Right.

And he was not one of these people who had a big social media presence.

He did not leave any manifesto, no rants.

There's just, it's a black hole right now.

The FBI has been going through his phone, and these are considered early days in an investigation.

So we should know more soon, but sometimes you don't know.

And there's enough, there were enough weird things that went down to make the internet go nuts with conspiracy theories.

Yes.

But also there's no evidence supporting any of those theories either.

Right.

And the impact, regardless of what it is, and I have been just FYI, I have been admonished and encouraged by my illustrious co-hosts to keep this time with you based on only things that we can get from you because you are a very, whereas I have an abundance of opinions, you have an abundance of facts.

So I'm just going to say, like, asterisks when I have a half an hour that I could go down a rabbit hole of things.

But what we do know is that this has affected the election insofar as there were immediate calls for

unity, immediate calls for

saying that this was Biden's fault, saying that Biden pulled his ads against Trump during this time.

So there has

that has happened and in a way I think has quieted

things

in the Biden space.

In the Biden space.

Yeah.

So there's the there are a couple of dynamics.

One is the kind of attention this is drawn to Trump and the boost it seems to be giving him as he entered the RNC

is one point.

There's the sort of larger conversation about political language, which I think we should talk about.

But to start with the conversation about Biden,

this happened as the Democrats were in the middle of this sort of internal,

I don't know, you don't want to call it a civil war, but this great deal of self-reflection about who should be the candidate at this point and is it too late to change.

And immediately, though there was a lot of momentum and there was a lot that was going to happen over the weekend to push Biden out of the race, that all stopped.

And it gave Biden a lot of breathing room to to sort of push himself further forward as the inevitable candidate.

I will say that we're speaking after Biden did his second interview with Network News.

He spoke to NBC.

It was, he didn't do anything awful, like there's no terrible gaffe, but for it was not a good interview.

And it has a lot of people who were his critics re-energized today and again, trying to revive this effort to replace him on the ticket.

So I think that's going to start back up in the next few days, to be honest.

Great.

So let's transition to that, which is, yes, we should be anti-hostility in our language, and we should be pro-honesty also, which includes the reality that this political, this violent political rhetoric has not only been not condemned by Trump, it has been fomented throughout this time.

And I mean, the truth is, is that, yes, we need to be very aware to not

personally villainize and make people targets.

And we also need to stay very much on target with what is true.

And what is true is that Trump has been fomenting this for a while and has not responded to tremendous acts of political violence that have happened over the last few years, including Paul Pelosi, whose head was fractured with a hammer by an assailant who came into his home and did that to him.

And the very very

in the days following that, Trump stood up and called Nancy Pelosi crazy and said that she was the only source of terror and said, How's her husband doing?

Anybody know to the entire place that was laughing at him while he was still in critical condition.

He also refused to denounce the militia group that had a conspiracy to take Governor Gretchen Whitmer hostage.

And in the days following, said that the people hated her and that she wanted to be a dictator.

So this is, this has been the kind of environment he's been refusing to condemn until the moment that it affects him.

And it's moreover politically expedient for him to make Democrats stop talking right now.

Yeah.

I have plenty of examples of how it's sort of a gaslight to say, oh, you can't, you know.

You need to call out threats to democracy when they're there.

Great, great, great, great.

All right.

So before all of this, is it going to be Biden?

Is it not going to be Biden?

Whose decision is this?

Is it riskier to have him in or riskier to replace him?

So,

where were we pre-shooting?

Oh, that's a good question.

So, pre-shooting, there were these two camps inside the Democratic Party.

There was the camp that said Biden is the candidate.

Stick with Biden.

He is the only Democrat or person who has defeated Trump in politics.

He has already won votes.

His name is going on the ticket.

His money is there.

He has the campaign apparatus.

And it's easier to stick with the guy you got than to risk a change at the last minute.

In fact, some people are so adamant about that that there's a real growing sort of antipathy and kind of anger in the party.

Like in my own community, people will yell at me and get very mad because I talk about Biden's weaknesses and give air to the point of view that some people think he should be replaced.

So there's extreme infighting over this.

But that's over there.

The second camp that wants Biden to go,

let me just tell you, quote, like David Plough, who was Obama's campaign manager and strategist.

David Plough, in my view, is the most calm and sort of exceptional mind when it comes to gathering data.

strategy and language and understanding all of that and seeing forward what could happen and what's likely to happen.

David Plough says the Democratic Party has never had this weak a candidate at the top of the ticket since 1988.

So the closest parallel is when Dukakis ran.

And Democrats had a terrible outcome that year.

A lot of elected Democrats are fearful that if Biden's at the top of the ticket, voters will be so demoralized that Democrats will not just lose the White House, but will also not regain the House and will also lose control of the Senate.

So they see is Democrats losing all of government if Biden's at the top of the ticket.

And their argument is there is still time to make a change.

It is risky, yes, but it is worth it in their view.

It's kind of like that scene in a space movie where, you know, everybody's on the deck of the spaceship and it says we're about to crash.

Should we change to another ship?

And some people are like, no, I don't believe the dials.

We're not going to crash.

And other people are like, we're getting out because at least in a new ship, we have a chance.

That's kind of where the Democrats are.

And

so, yes, great.

Let's just name the thing, which is that we are not supposed to be talking about this.

People who want

to do everything they can to ensure there is not another Trump administration are not supposed to be talking about this.

And I think it's important just to say that part out loud because it feels to me like a very dysfunctional family.

It feels like this idea that

we cannot

say what is wrong in our family because we are going to make the family look weak to the outside world, to the people outside the house.

But

I don't think what we're doing is making the family look weak.

I think the family is weak right now.

The ticket is weak objectively.

We've never pulled this low at this point in the race.

And it feels like it's out of loyalty to the family that we're saying, like, let's see if we can shore this up and strengthen it.

And like, no one's saying they're not going to support whoever's on the ticket after this.

We're saying, let's put our best foot forward for who's ever on the ticket.

So what do we actually know when we look at the data?

This is a great question.

If we were to say, let's just theoretically.

get behind the radical notion that we should run the strongest candidate.

I know that's crazy.

That's a crazy idea that we just shouldn't shouldn't go with the one we have, but try to go with the strongest one.

What do we know about

the relative strengths of Biden, not vis-a-vis Trump, but vis-a-vis other people who could be candidates?

Okay, great question.

And I think your family analogy is so apt because there's this dynamic where other Democrats aren't even speaking out because they're afraid of upsetting the patriarch.

And I don't even mean like that, why aren't they speaking out calling for Biden to go?

But where are the Democrats' most telegenic and articulate and outspoken leaders countering Trump's message in these past few days?

Like

about shootings and about, you know, why don't they make the parallel to school shootings?

You're so worried about guns and shootings.

In your case, let's talk about school shootings or, you know, speaking up for who has used the most incendiary language.

Anyway, that's my little rant.

I don't understand why like the Biden White House isn't putting out all their best, you know, talkers to make the case.

So that's weird.

And not for nothing, why is it after 30 kids get shot up in a classroom, we are supposed to move on right after a thoughts and prayers tweet, but after this, we have to shut down our campaign.

Like, what?

Yes.

I mean, and Trump has literally said it's, you know, you just got to get over it and move on when it's a six-year-old who's shot, but not his ear.

Anyway, the.

The thing about shutting down the campaign, it's sort of like a tradition that when something terrible happens, you take down your ads, wait a nice 24 hours, and then put them up later so it's sort of old political behavior and i think the ads will go up in a nanosecond if they're not up already you know so that'll come back but it is the i take your point is absolutely apt like why where's the desire to be aggressive and forward-leaning um you had asked about the numbers okay this is a very strange conversation to have because whenever I talk about polls, the audience gets so angry and says polls are always wrong.

And why do you trust them?

It is correct that you cannot use a poll to predict the future.

However, you can use both polling and focus groups, which is when political consultants sit down with small groups of people and talk to them week after week after week.

I know people who've done this for all four years of the Biden administration and are continuing now, and you see the change in these conversations.

And when you see the change in these same polls, they might not be a perfect snapshot of America, but they are a consistent measure of a group of people and when you see a change in that group it tells you something's going on so what we're seeing with the biden polling is that it's been pretty stable but it's very low and even if he's sometimes he's six points below trump in some states sometimes he's two ahead right now he's behind trump in all the swing states that's important to note what we have to understand is that because of the way american voting works and the electoral college, Democrats have to pull like 7 to 10% above the other guy in order to win the electoral college?

Remember how it's all out of whack.

We've talked about this.

Y'all know.

So Democrats always can win the popular vote, but lose in the electoral college.

So to win in the electoral college, you have to really win in the popular vote.

So Democrats should be pacing ahead right now.

Biden is not doing that.

There's a kind of thinking that basically his support is is just die-hard Democrats, people who are going to vote.

D.L.

Hughley posted, I'd vote for Biden if he were asleep on Fifth Avenue, making a joke about Trump's old.

So these are the people who'd vote for any Democrat asleep on Fifth Avenue.

But the way Democrats are going to win this election is by getting out what we call low propensity voters, people who don't always vote, people who aren't super politically engaged.

But you got to like reach into whatever world they're paying attention to media in and excite them and get them them to think this is a vote that's this is an election worth me getting off the couch.

Biden is not doing that, and they think that he's not able to, right?

That's what all these wise men are saying, and wise women, to be honest, um, is that and and you and I can see it.

Like I just talked about this interview where he had all this opportunity to make an aggressive case and didn't.

So, who's going to energize those low propensity voters?

Right now, Kamala Harris is polling ahead of Biden against Trump,

and there are are others in the Democratic Party who are superstars, who are behind,

they're not ahead of Biden in the polling.

But the belief is if you give them the excitement of a convention that replaces the old candidate and puts a new, if you cover all this debate and dynamic change inside the Democratic Party, that will draw huge media attention.

It'll be intriguing.

It'll create a new opportunity for this person to present themselves to America and make the case that they are the change candidate.

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Is it really,

is the future of Western civilization at this moment truly up to

one man's decision that he alone is at liberty

to make

based on his own perceptions

and aspirations?

Is that where we are?

Is that the truth of what's happening?

Yes.

And is he the only one that gets to decide?

And PS or it's not like he is Biden.

We are talking about Biden.

Yes.

Is that the case?

Or are there other people who get to help make this decision?

Explain to us how this shit hits the fan here in terms of out or in Biden.

Is it truly up to him and his little heart?

So

fundamentally, in the end, yes, it is up to him.

He gets to decide.

If you want to get into like the real practical situation, here's what's going on.

Like he has a campaign team.

If they turn on him and his White House aides turn on him and the leadership of Congress turns on him and they all say, we can't do this, in the end, he can't do it.

But that's not happening, right?

So what it really comes down to is I was saying that prior to the shooting, there was all this action that was going to happen over the weekend to edge Biden out.

And what that looks like is after the press conference Biden had last week, which seems a lifetime ago, Hakeem Jeffries, the minority leader of the House, went and met with him, right?

And they used all this public diplomatic, you know, political ease.

But he basically said, here's a list of members who say they cannot win their districts if you're the president, if you're running again, swing voter, swing, and swing districts.

So like, we're not going to regain the house.

Then what you're going to have is Chuck Schumer going to meet with Biden and saying, here's the political reality and laying it out.

And then you have Nancy Pelosi who can go in as the closer to say, Mr.

President, you got to exit, right?

That's sort of where the power lies and the influence and who can sort of really nudge him into changing his position.

He has a group of, a very tight-knit group of advisors around him who have sort of been his trusted people for decades.

And then outside of that, you have a White House staff, you have a campaign staff, all of whom, you know, can have an opinion.

But the real ability to sort of maneuver him is through those congressional leaders and his closest aides.

But ultimately, again, the decision is his.

Those aides, those campaign managers, all of these people that are surrounding him that could say, it looks like the writing's on the wall, if they do, don't they lose their power and positions?

Is this a group of people who all, their political ambition is tied to Biden's?

Yeah, like the political calculus is they lose their position, they lose their access, they lose all of it if Biden goes.

And so you understand

sort of what would motivate a person to not want to do that.

I would frame it as in a lot of cases,

they convince themselves that he can win, right?

Or that a change is too dangerous.

It's more like

it's a fear analysis, a fear posture where losing is almost inevitable, but sticking with our guy is safer than the option.

And

the problem is, is that there's not a lot of penetration of the inner circle, right?

So you don't know what information they're getting.

There's in these environments, you get a lot of paranoia because people in the White House are now leaking.

That's another sign.

The White House used to be on lockdown.

It was hard to get leaks.

Now it's like leaking like a sieve, which means Biden's losing support in his own White House.

Same in the campaign.

So you're starting to see his own team sort of pull away from him in some ways.

But it's really like he needs to feel some greater pressure than he already feels from the power influences in his world.

This is a recent poll.

56% of Democrats say Biden should withdraw.

72% of Independents say he should.

Six in 10 liberals say so.

Seven in 10 moderates say so.

Seven in 10 among both white and Hispanic people.

The people, the voters, this is what they say.

I understand, again, the family analogy, but

at my job,

when there's a crisis, when there's an impending disaster for my business, I don't get to panic and do nothing.

Democrats

are panicking and doing nothing.

It's not, it's not Biden and his inner circle.

Yes, we would love for him to do the do the thing that is safest for the nation.

He believes and has convinced himself he's doing the thing that's safest for the nation.

Where are the Democrats in leadership other than like

Adam Smith and some other folks that have come out to be bold and say that it is our job to make sure we're running

the best candidate?

Like when Adam Smith said, he's this congressman from Washington said, the idea that we are going to slow walk into fascism because we don't want to hurt somebody that we respect's feelings.

I can't even begin to tell you how angry that makes me.

We heard that interview too.

So good.

The other one who I thought was so impressive was Michael Bennett of Colorado, who was the first member of Congress to put his name to this and face and senator and said, the first senator and said, we have a moral obligation to the kids of America to not do nothing, to speak up and fight for this if we have the opportunity to now.

And we do.

It was so, it was sort of like a have you no shame moment.

And people have had a lot of shame, I guess.

Is it, is it possible that,

and I want you to tell me that this is not true.

So it's just what,

are we just like a lot of other families where we don't call out our daddy because it would be too scary and we will

just like families all over the world we will go down.

We will sacrifice ourselves so that we don't hurt a man's feelings or ego.

I mean, that is a part of the dynamic.

I think another part of the dynamic is he's the president of the United States.

He's a very powerful person and he has a very powerful apparatus around him.

And he is fighting to stay.

He is not going, right?

And they know that if you go up against him, you know, and I think that there's just a lot of political fear and survival fear.

You know, I don't want to stick my neck out there in case it doesn't go my way.

It's all personal political calculus.

Every single person, Biden has done his calculus.

Every single senator and congressperson is saying, like, do I have more to lose by sticking my head out than I have to win?

There's also this additional dynamic, which I

bring up knowing that it could, you know, I could get blowback for saying this right now.

But there's also a thing where some Democratic voters are so unwilling to hear criticism of Biden that Democrats themselves are attacking anyone who has this conversation, including elected officials.

And they're so unwilling to hear another point of view that they're canceling subscriptions to newspapers that write about this.

They are threatening to vote against Democrats who are talking about it.

So part of it is Democrats also looking at their own constituency and not wanting to get ahead of their own voters.

And I get that.

I really do.

It is this, it's this real fear of if we talk a bunch of trash about this guy, about all the reasons he's not good,

then he ends up being it anyway.

Then that we have we have given you know oxygen to that fire about how he's not good.

I totally get that.

And I don't think anyone is saying that they're not going to support the ticket, whoever's on it, after this.

It's just that the window is closing to make the strongest ticket.

And I would just like for someone to tell us

that the reason why we're going with this ticket is because it's the strongest and not because the man who's on the ticket really, really wants to be it.

I mean, you're not going to find people telling you it's the strongest ticket.

Can I just add a little framing to why that is?

I had mentioned before these low low propensity voters.

I think one of the things is like when you're in a dysfunctional family, to go back to Glennon and Amanda, your analogy, you kind of think like this is what reality is, but you don't know what it's like to be in a family that communicates and is loving and like you forget or don't know what that was like.

Go back and remember other successful presidential candidates like Barack Obama.

What would he be doing right now?

He would be out on the campaign trail talking

about

the shooting and then all the issues we've talked about, making a case about gun safety, making a case about calling out your political opponents in ways that aren't violent.

But now that we're gonna do that, let me show you how to do that.

And then use that as an opportunity to call out his political opponent.

Like there is a version of, there's a world in which your presidential candidate, you're not just

grading on this weird curve where if he doesn't say something crazy and offensive, it's a win.

But where are your candidates actually making a positive case for the future and prosecuting the case against the opponent?

And that is not happening.

And that is what you need to turn out those low-propensity voters, not the super-engaged people, the not engaged people, who's going to reach them.

And there's no one who's going to tell you that Biden doing these baseline interviews is going to energize them.

The other thing that feels very disheartening about this is that we are in

a situation where we have the last president before Biden

refused to

concede to a peaceful transfer of power and tried to stay in office.

The entire basis of the current Democratic platform is

despite all the things they did that were amazing in this past administration, which is the really shame of all of it, is we're not talking about any of that because it's all focused on his ability to communicate and be forceful and compelling.

But and because they're not talking about that, we have nothing Democrat.

No, we have no messaging.

There's nothing who can carry a message, but it or who are out there doing it.

We have people who can.

I'm looking at you, Pete.

Where are you, Pete?

But

the

this, like, it's framed in terms of existential crisis of democracy, right?

And it is.

And yet, we have a situation in which the majority of Americans,

Democrats, Independents,

and Republicans say this should not be the man on the ticket.

And our whole argument to vote for this man is he's going to save democracy.

But where is the democracy in this moment where we don't even get to say who we think should be on the ticket?

Like it is, it is not where it's internally inconsistent from a like sniff test.

We don't get to have who we want.

Vote for us so we can save democracy.

Yeah, you could be forgiven for

people who say, isn't this a little bit of king energy in itself?

Like

you talked so much about the importance of seeding power peacefully when it is time.

Perhaps it is your turn.

The irony is, yes, is noteworthy.

And not for nothing.

I mean,

but are we just not going to talk about how

in his original, when we all agreed that this was the way, and Biden has an incredible record on many things, this administration did a lot of wonderful things.

I take nothing away from him except his ability to run again.

Like, great job.

Good job.

But

are we not going to talk about

how throughout the 2020 campaign, he called himself a bridge and he called himself a transitional candidate and all but said he would be a one-term president why is no one talking about that so jessica do you think that what do you what what are you hearing people say do we think this the writing's on the wall here do we think there's hope for someone else who else would it be talk to us about what is possible next okay we're at a

like this the moment we're having this conversation is a very flux moment.

So I go

back to Friday, and there were a lot of people who thought Biden would be out of the race by today or soon.

Go to the weekend, a lot of people thought that, you know, the same people thought the conversation was over.

And now after Biden's interview yesterday, the talk of replacing him, the energy to replace him is back.

There is a lot of interest in having some of these gray beards, I use that

term loosely, it includes Nancy Pelosi, go to him and tell him it's time to go, sir.

You're going to have to help us find a way to make this a really graceful exit.

But

the clock is ticking.

So there's a meeting of

the DNC's rules committee this Friday.

They're the ones who decide the process.

So when people say there's no process to replace Biden, that's not true.

The Democratic Party is a private business.

Its rules committee makes its rules.

They can make the rules to replace him at their next meeting.

Who's the key people involved in that?

It's like a bunch of names of people who are behind the scenes people you wouldn't know.

But do we know where their allegiance is?

A lot of that,

not necessary.

I mean, not no.

They work no.

But they also know that they have.

They have to represent the delegates.

Well, they have to represent the party.

And

if the party has decided to make a change, I think the rules committee would create the process.

And, you know, there's a couple of versions of this.

One is that Biden would,

first of all, for any of it to happen, the reason it's so up to him is that for any of this to happen, he needs to bow out because he has close to 4,000 delegates who are committed to him.

And so what you would need to have happen is for him to release his delegates and either ask them to vote for someone else of his choosing or tell them to vote their conscience whoever they'd like.

There's a version where one of

sort of like the Democratic Party thinkers imagine two versions.

One is where he set where the path is cleared for Vice President Harris to become to fill that role.

The argument being she has her name is already on the ticket.

on the ticket.

Now, to be clear, that doesn't have anything to do with ballots.

People think that the ballots are already printed.

The ballots do not get printed until a candidate is nominated.

So there is time on the ballots.

But her, she ran with Biden.

So those same delegates who are committed to Biden are committed to her.

So there's a very natural,

so this, we're talking about the primaries where all the delegates are now, the states have voted in the primaries.

They voted for Biden because that was pre any of this.

And they voted for him.

It was Vice President Harris, President Biden on the ticket.

So basically him coming off would automatically put her as the one who has been voted on.

And

the delegates delegates belong to.

Yes.

Theoretically.

It doesn't, because there's, that's not like really a thing.

It just is logical, right?

Right.

Because when you really, the thing thing is when you get nominated at the convention and we could decide to nominate some other person, anyone,

any, you know, anybody could make that decision.

The Democrats could make that decision.

What

Biden could do is sort of direct attention to Kamala Harris saying she's already gotten those votes in the primary.

She already has the campaign staff because it's his and her staff.

And the money would legally flow to her pretty easily.

Right.

So you'd, you know, make a natural transition.

And the argument is if Biden's running anyway, voters would be looking at Kamala Harris as a future president, assuming he couldn't finish out the term anyway.

So give her the opportunity to make the case in the strongest way possible for herself.

She would represent dramatic change and youth, and it would be a contrast to Trump and energize the party.

That's what her proponents say.

There are others who say that would feel undemocratic, like an anointment, and it is more democratic to allow delegates to choose from a slate of candidates that could include people like Governor Whitmer, Governor J.B.

Pritzker, Governor Newsom, Pete Budajudge, Governor Wes Moore, Governor Josh Shapiro.

There's a list, right?

Some have said they don't want to run, but, you know, give them the chance, they might change.

Create a small primary process where each of them is allowed to have mini debates quickly or town halls with the networks, allow them to speak at the convention and then allow the delegates to vote.

In that scenario, VP Harris would also be among the people voted on.

And if she gets the most votes there, then it would be seen that she was elected, not selected.

And the people of that camp believe that's a better way and a stronger way for her or any other candidate to come out.

Then they get the nomination and go on to run.

The problem is there are some deadlines before the convention that have to be met and that compresses the timeframe in which you get to decide, will it be Biden?

And if not, which of these processes will take over?

When does the convention begin?

August 19th.

But there's a vote of the rules committee this Friday.

And so really the whole ballgame is this Friday.

Because they could also make it possible that it has to be Biden.

Like the rules can go either way.

They could make the rules that say, that basically make it impossible to go these other routes.

True.

Basically, they could create a situation where there's a roll call early.

They nominate Biden and then those ballots do get printed.

And then it's hard to pull that back.

I don't know.

It's like the rules committee is a little bit of a secret.

And how things work is not totally transparent.

So some people say Friday is not the real deadline.

Some people say it's Sunday.

Some people say, no, no, no, it's not till August 6th or 7th.

I'm not quite sure.

It's very soon.

I think that the wise people

who are

in the light most favorable,

trying to do what is best for this country in their view, should be very wary of the appearance

of

making it not possible

for voters and the electorate to

say what they want to happen.

And I think it's very, it would be very dangerous for a rule to come down that made it impossible for that to happen because we're already in a precarious spot with like belief and institutions.

And

the whole thing is fun.

It's like, well, the ballots are printed.

It's like, well, I got to marry this dude because the tuna tartar is already ordered.

Exactly.

Well, it's ordering the tuna tartare early.

So you can say you have to marry him because the tuna tartare is ordered.

Like the tuna tartare isn't even ordered yet.

So do you think,

what do you, what's your gut, Jessica, like based on all of the buzz?

I mean, it doesn't, there's just such a groundswell to make a change.

And I'll say I spent Monday night watching the Republican convention and there's a lot of energy on that floor.

And they did a lot of creative things to broaden their appeal and reach out to sort of working Americans.

They had a whole populist appeal.

They had, you know, a multiracial social media influencer, you know, reaching younger and more diverse audience.

And Democrats really need to, you know, find a way to counter that appeal.

So It seems like the train is moving again to replace him, but it could be very touch and go.

Like I really, it's a, I don't really, I don't know what's going to happen right now.

I will say that even after the convention, there's a way to replace the person on the ticket.

It can be done.

So it's just, it becomes less democratic at that point.

I'd also add, you know, look at the, and this is not, this is like, I find this riveting and it's an important conversation, but if this weren't the drama, we would have spent this entire time talking about who is J.D.

Vance or what violent comments has Trump made.

And there's no longer such a clean focus on the opponent because Democrats are contending with this internal problem that they, you know, are under pressure to resolve quickly, which is the entire disaster of this thing.

When Biden's first campaign was not Trump, it was say very little.

Let Trump say everything that he needs to say and let that.

show you who he is and who you should be voting for.

But, and that was the strategy seemingly now.

He didn't take the, he didn't take the Super Bowl interview.

He didn't, he, it was going to still be, let Trump show you who he is.

So you want to vote for anyone who isn't him.

And

that's not what anyone's talking about anymore.

For the rest of the time, it's talking about, is Biden the right one?

That's going to be it for the next, like that strategy doesn't work when Biden becomes the focus.

of the Biden campaign.

And what's so weird to me is if he's so determined to stay in, why is he not just like accepting that he's not a good communicator and flooding out the zone with the best communicators in his team?

Like, again, why,

you know, make Pete Buttigieg hide his light in a bushel?

Is that the saying?

I can't, you know, whatever that saying is.

Like, he should be out talking all the time.

Gino Raimondo,

why are they not pushing out all the administrations?

They're arguing that you're not voting for a person.

You're voting for an administration.

Show the people who this administration is.

And so there almost seems like they're also resigned to not running a camp.

I don't know what's going on.

The resigned energy is terrifying.

It's unforgivable is what it is.

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Can you please talk to us a little bit about J.D.

Vance?

Who the fuck is this guy?

So the thing that I think is important to like help frame J.D.

Vance,

we'll talk about, you know, his positions on abortion and all that.

Before you do any of that, it's important to understand that his like worldview is that

America has been taken over by an administrative, the sort of deep state, the administrative state that are sort of liberal institutional elites.

And in order to get America to its vibrant best place, you need to sort of purge government of those people and shake what he would call wokeness out of institutions.

So that means sort of firing a lot of federal employees right from the beginning,

reversing a lot of policies and regulations, and

pursuing a very, like,

it's an

extremist view of America, but it's very specific.

And

it's partly populist, but it's also aligned with Silicon Valley.

And his biggest backers are some of the richest billionaires in America, Silicon Valley bigwigs, who believe that tech and AI and,

you know, new scientific breakthroughs are going to change us so much that government can't keep up, but they can make the best decisions for the American people.

And we need to sort of peel back

a lot of the government oversight so that they can innovate quickly and make us competitive.

Ah.

Okay, so this is why like the Elon Musks are putting $45 billion a month or whatever behind, yeah, whatever at that point.

At that point, whatever.

$45 million a month to the Trump campaign.

So it's that, so they can lead.

Yeah.

Okay.

Huh.

And what does that choice say to you?

What does that choice right after the shooting?

I know some people were saying, oh, this will be the moment, which reminded me of every single daughter who's ever been like, this is when dad changes.

Like, no,

no, he's not changing.

He's going to double down and triple down and quadruple down.

So what does the choice of JD Vance signal?

That he's very confident he's he's going to win because

if he wanted, if he, if Trump, if Trump were nervous, he would have picked more moderate person that could appeal across the aisle and appeal to Nikki Haley voters.

It also means that he's

like, if you are wondering, is he going to moderate his positions?

No, he's doubling down on sort of the base voter Project 2025 view of the world.

And he also, you know, is picking sort of a white guy, not a change candidate.

He is young.

J.D.

Vance is young, but he's really sort of going with what the billionaires want him to do in this case.

And

I'd add that J.D.

Vance is the preferred candidate of the Biden campaign.

The Democrats believe that he's so extremist that he will turn off swing voters.

And if you have a campaign that has vim and aggressive postures, they could take him on and make that case.

Just to sort of fill that in, J.D.

Vance is against against abortion, even in the case of rape.

He only makes an exception for the life of the mother.

He

is, you know, has very conservative or far-right positions

is against gender-affirming care.

He wants to strip language that's LGBTQ and sort of female-friendly from a lot of our government policies.

I mean, I could go on.

He's anti-IVF.

He has suggested that we should get rid of no-fault divorces.

He is, I mean, it's, it's like turning back the clock in a very dramatic way.

Yeah.

And then he scrambles things a bit because while he's for the border wall and he says that Biden's open border policies are, you know, destroying America, he also adopts some typically now liberal.

positions like he wants to raise the minimum wage.

He wants to have tariffs on some imported stuff to things that sort of help the American worker.

So there's ways in which he's extremely far right on social policies, especially as regards women and the LGBTQ community.

But when it regards working men, he'll adopt a more populist and sort of seemingly liberal frame,

which widens his appeal.

He's also

an

unabashed

communicator with a

willingness to have

to be mean, like like he, in a, in a way that's an asset to a campaign, like he can use his words and is not

afraid to use them in a way that, that Democrats have historically not been willing to

step up to the plate and match.

For example, a few years ago, when he called Donald Trump the Hitler of America.

Yeah.

And then Donald Trump did not.

Which you would think.

No, you would think that would be a deal breaker for a man with a big ego until you think a little bit harder and think maybe it's not an insult at all to Donald Trump.

Yeah.

Right after the shooting, Vance put out a statement essentially saying that Biden and Democrats had used language calling Trump a fascist.

And that like is the sort of incendiary language that led to this violence, which is a big time gaslight, but it it's the sort of forward-leaning, aggressive posture that Trump likes.

And that is actually very effective for a campaign from a vice presidential candidate.

The vice presidential candidate is usually the one that makes the harshest attacks.

And Vance is very comfortable leaning into that.

Yes.

Bad cop.

When you mentioned gaslighting, I just want to say this is that I have been thinking and struggling and wrestling nonstop with what to say and how to say it because

my main

goal is to use whatever small platform I have to do what I can to avoid this country falling into fascism.

It seems to me that the options presented to people like me right now are pretend you don't see what you see

and toe whatever future line is or i'm just not going to do that I'm going to

say what I see and how I feel in the moment.

I'm not going to

gaslight other people by saying, I don't see what you see when Biden speaks.

But when it is time,

you will see me.

standing behind whoever it is doing whatever I need to do to avoid Donald Trump becoming president, whether that is fruitful or not.

But I'm not going to pretend that I don't see what I see in the meantime.

May I ask you a question, Glennon?

Because

you're the person who's best at this and at words that are difficult, but it can be said without offending people, which is: when you say, I'm going to speak what I see, how do you language that?

What would you say?

Help other people who want to be able to say that too.

What I am experiencing is that in the lack of

good ideas,

a bad idea will take precedent over no idea.

And that is, I could see that, I saw that all the time in my classroom in third grade.

I see it in my family.

And right now, I see it in the country.

The energy surrounding this bad idea is so much bigger.

My anger at the Democratic Party right now is as big as my anger at the Republican Party, maybe even bigger.

I see in when I'm listening to interviews, I feel a fury

that I cannot put into words yet that

this party has not faced the hard truth of what you know they were seeing every single day for years before this moment.

And it very much reminds me of the fact that we as a people

will allow our families to crumble, we will allow our communities to crumble, our countries to crumble, perhaps our planet to crumble because we do not want to challenge the fragility of an old white man.

I am furious

about it.

I feel concerned about everyone that I love because it feels like

we have to shut up.

and not say the truth like every person in a family does with a father who's leading poorly.

Or

I think it's super important that we allow the truth to live right now and we allow the truth to guide us towards the next best decision.

And so, I am okay with some anger right now.

I'm okay with a little bit of chaos.

I'm okay with people speaking what they see in hopes that that leads us to a better, truer, next step.

But this silencing of all of us, this gaslighting, you do not see what you are seeing, feels very much like I am starting starting to get to a point where i understand the people who say it's all the same

the right side is the same as the left side the left side is the same as the right i see a lot of king energy i see a lot of gaslighting energy i see a lot of do not you do not see what you see you do not hear what you hear so i'm ready i understand that people will be furious with what i'm saying right now

In order to survive this, I'm going to say what I feel and see in the moment.

And then the next day, I'm going to do that again.

And And then the next day, I'm going to do that again.

But I'm not going to lie today

for some future promise that people make that never comes to fruition anyway.

I want to be a part of the fomenting that maybe leads to something better because we have to demand more of the Democratic Party.

If that's our family, we have to demand that it's better because this is absolutely unacceptable.

Amen.

That's how I feel.

I

feel exactly like you feel, Glennon.

And also, I feel a,

we have seen what

and a political movement based on fear

where it leads us.

We have seen an administration based on fear, a whole brand, which is exactly what Trump has done over and over.

Fear them, fear that they're the reason you're in danger.

You're in danger.

You need to stick with us so we can get rid of them all of that and i feel

like

how

dare

the administration

come to us with a fear-based

reason

why we can't have

that.

Okay.

So, yes, okay, it's not perfect.

Yes, he's really old, but like, it's too scary.

It's too scary to try something else.

It's too risky to try something else.

It's too, you can't have that thing, that thing that you can imagine that's better than this.

We would love to give it to you, but you can't have it.

I'm so sorry.

The fear keeps us in this place of what is, instead of having faith in what we can imagine, which is better.

And I reject the idea that our choices are to go with that Trump administration who is leading with fear or this Democratic Party that is leading us with fear that says, this is the scraps you get, and just try to turn off that vision of something

more and better.

And the faith in democracy and the faith in the American people that that reveals is very little.

And I would like to have a Democratic Party that has faith in democracy and faith in the American people and faith in gathering together the electorate at that convention to choose wisely.

And if Biden wants to be up there and running with it, great.

Great.

And if he wins, I'm with him.

But we cannot have two choices that are both fear-based.

Yeah.

May the best idea win.

And it seems that we don't know what the best idea, we don't know anything.

It feels like they're just saying, they're forcing us to believe that Biden is the best idea.

And we're like.

And then they say, really?

Okay, fine.

So what we want you to do is don't lead with the candidate then.

If you're so, if you don't, you're not excited about our candidate, just lead with the party.

Okay,

give me something for that.

Because I understand the young people who are saying to me, you can't even get your shit together to have somebody who can debate, but you want me to think that you're handling everything else that I can't see better than that.

Oh, I'm sorry.

The one forward-facing thing that you're doing is fucked up this bad.

And so I should trust that the million other things that I can't see are going well.

I understand that feeling.

I don't know.

Can't put it back in a box.

Good times.

I will say they do have very able people in their campaign and in the White House who are sort of, I think, also kind of

on this boat that they can't get off, on the spaceship that they can't get off.

There are sure they can.

Sure, they can.

There's millions of families across this country that have to deal with their own fucking messes, and they do it every day.

There's millions of family businesses that face crises, that need succession plans, that have older people and patriarchs and matriarchs that they have to gracefully take care of while the next leadership comes to mind.

Americans do this every fucking day.

Democratic Party, why does my family of four people have a more sophisticated succession plan for what happens when I die than the Democratic Party on which the future of Western civilization depends?

That is inexcusable bullshit.

You should have seen this coming.

You should have done your jobs.

Now, what we are noticing is that you didn't.

And all we're asking for is the chance to get it right instead of you explaining to us why we can't have it right.

Democratic Party has a humility problem right now.

And that's the thing that they've been operating under: that, like, oh, we are the nicest.

We are the most conscious of this country.

We would do the right thing.

And here we are.

And this is the test.

What are you going to do, Democrats?

Are you going to show up and actually be what you say you are?

Be what you say you are.

Okay, so Jessica, what should we watch next?

What should our eyes be on

to do next?

So we're watching the, I mean, the thing that's happening are two.

One is the behind the scenes maneuvers that are kind of, like I'm saying, revving up again to try to ease Biden out.

If there is meaningful action, one would look for it to happen by Friday.

The rules committee meets on Friday.

There's a separate deadline on Sunday.

There's, you know, this other vote on the, I can't remember, the sixth or seventh of August.

So that's sort of in the next couple of days, are we going to see some of the elders of the party speaking out, pushing him out to just say it gracelessly?

At the same time, you're watching the RNC to see what their messaging is.

And Trump is expected to speak on, no, he will speak on Thursday.

So you want to hear what Vance and Trump are saying is their agenda

as part of, you know, thinking about what the Democrats messaging is.

I would also watch like, where are the other candidates, all these potentials?

What are they saying and doing?

I think one of the biggest, that's on the hard politics.

One of the biggest unknowns to me right now is will Trump be able to own this lane, this kind of message that Democrats cannot call him a threat to democracy because that is there for incendiary language that incites violence.

I mean, if Barack Obama were leading this, he would have a really effective message in response.

I don't see that coming yet from Biden.

So who in the Democratic Party is able to articulate that and push back?

And what is that pushback?

It's not going to be Mrs.

Obama.

She, you know, there's all this polling that shows she rates very well, but she's not going to run for office.

She's not going to run.

But I do think you'll hear and see Barack Obama on the campaign trail.

I think his unique contribution is he frames an argument so well that once he's out there driving a message, you start to hear that message from all other Democrats on the campaign trail.

So he doesn't even need to be at the top of the ticket.

He just needs to be out in public talking so other people understand the frame for pushing their case.

Pete Buttigieg is also good at that.

And,

you know, it's really like a two-week window.

Is this going to happen in the next two weeks?

If not,

something dramatic can happen down the line, but you can't really count on that.

I also think we're living in these crazy times, and I wouldn't be surprised if two more events happen between now and the election that scramble things again.

It's very hard to plan for the future when, you know, unpredictable stuff is happening endlessly.

I will just say last thing is that I feel like a lot of the fear comes from, oh God, we can't have unpredictable things.

We can't have a, we can't have a convention that's unpredictable and wild and chaotic.

Part of our problem is that

everything seems choreographed and nothing seems real or organic or chaotic

or actually happening.

It seems like this choreographed event and we get to see the outcome that was already predestined.

I think it would be incredible for engagement and excitement for us to actually see something fucking happen in real time and people express their voice and we end up with a candidate.

What if we actually saw something that looked like democracy happening?

That might be exciting.

That might make people believe that we're a democracy.

The political insiders fear that will look like 1968 and it's, you know, chaos and danger.

But the counter to that is exactly as you're saying.

It will look exciting.

And by the way, that drives media interest.

One of the problems is that like people are super disinterested and disengaged.

I get told our candidates and our politicians are out there, but they can't quote break through.

The media won't cover them.

Well, a convention with an unknown outcome would get endless media attention.

The whole nation would focus.

Those low-propensity voters, it would break through their media bubble.

So that is one of the arguments for making this change now.

People are scared of change, though.

All right.

Well, they better get ready.

Okay, Jessica.

I'm just deeply, I truly have spent a lot of time thinking about you all doing you especially.

And I have a couple other friends that are in this every day.

I am

awed by,

I'm deeply grateful.

I cannot imagine

how unbelievably difficult it must be every day to stay sane, to stay grounded, and to deliver difficult information with the clarity and wisdom and groundedness and gentleness and kindness and that you do.

And I seriously, I am so deeply grateful.

And I am thinking about you and I am,

you know, just in your corner and will be energetically

loving you throughout this.

Thank you.

That means so much.

May I say there's two things.

One is if folks want facts, I put out a newsletter that's very grounded.

I try to keep it calm and it gives you the kind of information you can use to have conversations and form your own opinions.

So if people want to check out the news not noise letter, that's awesome.

And then there's one tool I've learned that I would love to share, which is a lot of times when I'm doing the news and scrolling social media and reading all this stuff or even listening to a podcast and I get that triggered feeling like I suddenly feel my anxiety rise.

I'm so trained to just push it down and move on.

And I think a lot of us are.

But the better practice I'm learning, because I know we've talked about this this and I've developed some tools, is when you feel that thing grab you, like I'm panicked, if you put it down and then you do the trauma therapy thing, you ask your body what it's feeling and allow yourself, is it fear?

Is it rage?

Is it frustration?

Let yourself have the motion deeply.

Like I'm sure, you know, it lasts 45 seconds and move on.

And then you can go back to the news from a more neutral place where you're centered.

And that strategy has helped me so much.

And as folks are getting engaged in politics again, you might practice this in other parts of your life, but I'd encourage folks to try it when they're engaging with politics too.

It really makes a difference.

And Jessica, how do they find your newsletter?

Where do we find that?

It's on Substack.

And it's called the News, Not Noise Letter.

And it really is.

Y'all, it's just, I am, I've been talking to my sister a lot about this lately.

I am committed more than I ever have before

been to doing this a third way.

Like, I cannot, I will not go on the ride every single day.

I won't.

I have this one wild and precious life, and I will not allow the news cycle that is dependent not on democracy.

The goal is not to, they don't, that's not the goal.

The goal is to keep us panicked so that we will keep coming back for more, right?

That's it.

So

I'm committed to being, to doing what I can do,

but not doing it in a way that hijacks my entire life and makes me unavailable to myself and the people that I love all day.

So this is a really

beautiful third way of we cannot, we cannot mistake entertainment

for being informed,

right?

Like we say, I just want to be informed, and then we spend all day in this like

cycle of clickbait and whatever.

So this is just because a third way for me

to

not disengage, but to engage with what is meaningful and can actually make a difference.

News.

News.

Thank you.

That sounds like you should share that with Jessica.

All right.

We love you.

Go do your 7 trillion other things that you're doing today and people you're meeting with.

And just thank you for keeping us grounded.

Pod squad, we love you.

All we can promise is that we are going to do this in with you and we're going to be honest so that you you can trust you trust us today that we're telling you how we actually feel what we actually see and then that means that in in two weeks if it's different and when it's different you can trust us then too because we weren't pretending this whole time okay bye pod squad

sure we'll hear from you in the voicemails bye

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We Can Do Hard Things is created and hosted by Glennon Doyle, Abby Wambach, and Amanda Doyle in partnership with Odyssey.

Our executive producer is Jenna Wise-Berman, and this show is produced by Lauren Lograsso, Allison Schott, Dina Kleiner, and Bill Schultz.