148. WHAT’S AT STAKE TODAY: Election Takeaways with Jessica Yellin

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I walked through fire.

I came out the other side.

Welcome back to We Can Do Hard Things.

It's the most important day of the year.

It's not Christmas or the holidays.

We are recording this just before and you are hearing it on midterm election day.

And so we have

the person

to join us today to explain to us all of the things that might happen, will happen, what happens next, what the hell with midterm election day,

Jessica Yellen.

Yes.

Hi.

Our friend and friend of the world, Jessica Yellen, is the founder of News Not Noise, a Webby award-winning independent digital media brand dedicated to giving information, not a panic attack.

You can find the News Not Noise letter on Bulletin and the News Not Noise podcast wherever you get your podcasts.

Jessica is the former chief White House correspondent for CNN,

an Emmy Peabody and Gracie award-winning political correspondent, and the author of Savage News.

Jessica, thank you for being here on this important day.

I am so happy to be with all of you today.

Happy, smiley faces who can do hard things.

Yes, today.

That's what we need to focus on, yes.

That's right.

Happy, smiley faces who can do hard things.

Okay, sister, speaking of intense faces who can do hard things,

why don't you kick us off because I know you're dying too.

I feel like doing hard things is a good place to start.

And I think since this day, there's a lot of

emotion, a lot of anxiety.

Frankly, for the past lo, so many years, it feels like there's so much riding on every moment.

It's important for me to center myself in

what we're doing here, because often there'll be

a loss, right?

By a couple of percentage points.

And it feels like, okay, you lost.

48 to 52, but you actually lost 100% because you don't get your person and all of that was for naught.

It's like offside after all that.

No goal.

No goal.

And I just think it's really good to think about it in terms of that is actually not true.

Right.

You know, when we're looking at Texas with Betto, how, you know, he lost by a couple of percentage points last round, but there was an entire infrastructure that was built in Texas under him.

And people who would not have registered, who would not have

engaged in the political system became galvanized.

and there was a whole beto effect down ballot.

So I just think regardless of what happens today, these races are important and showing up is important and getting politically involved is important because

of

the way that that bears fruit today,

in next election, a decade from now.

So

just speaking of the hope.

Yeah.

And one of the ways we talked about this that really really helped me in terms of how I'm thinking about it is we talk all the time about how what we're seeing now with Roe v.

Wade, what we saw with Trump, and how that was being built over time, strategically, a little bit at a time by Republicans and conservatives over time.

And that's what we are doing now.

Yes.

So there's a bunch of things to say about this.

First of all, you are right.

Folks who wanted to overturn abortion, right, and wanted to end Roe versus Wade started when Roe versus Wade was passed.

It took them 50 years to get to this moment.

How many elections was that where they didn't get their way, but they didn't stop?

They kept voting.

They kept organizing.

They kept fundraising.

And they were focused on the goal.

So I think that no matter what the results are, if they don't match your vision,

it's about a process and continuing to commit.

And I do think that one of the things I've observed this cycle, this midterms, is that there are some people who are super excited to vote in 2020.

And now they're like, well, we voted and things didn't change as much as we wanted right away.

And so why should I be voting again?

And that's just not how anything hard works in the world.

That's not how our system works.

You have to keep showing up.

Today's election day, voting ends today, but voting has been taking place for weeks in many states that have early voting.

And people have been organizing and focused and engaged.

And one of the most most important things to remember is all these big national conversations focus on the Senate and the House, but those ballots are filled also with local races.

And

these people decide

what goes into your school curriculum.

Should books be banned?

How is gender taught in your school?

That is on the ballot in these local races.

And if somebody is saying, I don't think I can weigh in on the House or Senate, I don't think I can make a difference, you're skipping the opportunity to really influence how your state works.

And that is crucial.

Jessica, I live in Virginia and Governor Glenn Young just proposed the rules for the Virginia Department of Education that

intends to be binding on all school districts, including my local independent school district.

with respect to transgender and non-binary students that would roll back privacy protections, treatment of transgender and non-binary students through our entire Commonwealth.

And so the school board members in my county

just

eviscerated the rule, wrote back, and resolved to reject it and to continue our long-standing practice of encouraging folks to enroll and participate according to their own gender identity and to keep those protections in place for transgender kids and non-binary kids.

And that is a local school board.

Totally elected by folks like you.

And if you choose to sit it out, the other side is picking them.

The local elected officials decide abortion rules in your state.

They decide things like you hear these big bills are passed in Washington, like a trillion dollars to help with the hospital system or roads.

But how does it get to you?

The people you're electing on your local ballot decide if they'll even accept the money.

Some of them say we don't want the money.

And then how and where it's spent.

There are some scandals in these states where money was taken for like funding health care and they redirected it to build football stadiums.

Those are local officials you have the opportunity to vote for every time there's an election.

And so it's really worth paying attention to what's on the ballot.

And they're not hiding the ball on this.

I mean, look at Dr.

Oz.

He said on national television that a woman's most intimate bodily and family decisions are going to be between the woman, her doctor, and her local political leaders.

Wasn't that amazing?

amazing?

And I just have to say, like, tell me, Pod Squad, it is Tuesday, November 8th.

Do you know who your local elected political leaders are?

Because they're the ones that are going to be sitting with you, apparently, and deciding whether you can have access to healthcare.

So Mayor Joe over there, who's like a middle manager by day, is the one who's going to decide whether you have a forced birth.

According to Dr.

Oz, that's what's going to happen.

So local political leaders are vital now more than ever.

And I'm happy to tell you, you can put it in show notes where you can look up who's on your ballot and learn about it.

Yes, please.

Because that's hard.

Yeah.

And it's available to learn.

Okay.

Tell us, what is it?

Just so I know.

Ballotpedia is a national resource.

You go and you can find out what's on your ballot.

Okay.

I also like to go to my local paper.

If I don't get enough information there, your local newspaper or your local NPR channel, often on the web, will show you um and usa fax has a midterm map that has a lot of information you can put in your zip code and find out what's on your ballot too yes and that's important too because the referenda are often written in an intentionally sneaky way so they'll say does the state have the right to make rules to preserve abortion in the case of rape or incest and really that's trying to say can the state legislate around abortion you have to be very careful about what you're reading.

The other thing I like to do is if you know somebody who you think is really smart and cares about politics, reach out to them and say, hey, can you share your voter guide?

Who are you voting for?

Do you mind telling me what you're doing?

I know that person.

I share their values.

I share their politics.

They did the research.

It's a good way to.

check yourself and get more information.

I also love to recommend a ballot party, but it's a little late on election day, so we can save that for next cycle.

That's good.

That's really good.

Okay, can we set the table for what we're expecting today?

National eyes are really focused on the Senate.

Right now, the Senate is divided 50-50, but because Democrats hold this White House, they have the tiebreaking vote and

barely are in charge of the Senate nominally.

But right now, there are at least five races that could go either way, Democrat or Republican.

And increasingly, it looks like even more than that, which could throw the Senate into Republican control.

So a lot lot of attention is focused on the Senate.

And in all but one of those five key races, the Republican running is an election denier.

And that's a theme we're seeing throughout this election.

There are 36 governors races.

More Democrats are in tight races than Republicans.

In three of the races, the Republicans running are election deniers.

You're also seeing in Secretary of State's offices, election deniers are running to be secretaries of state overseeing the voting process in their states.

This is one of the reasons this is considered sort of an existential election, right?

These folks could get in office and sort of change the rules around how we vote.

So there's a lot of attention being paid to the election deniers in these races, to this balance of power question in the Senate.

Now, if you want to talk about what we are expecting, expectations are that Republicans will win the House of Representatives.

That's based on polling and surveys of likely voters, which is an art, not a science, and it could be wrong.

And there's an uncertainty around the Senate.

It looks like it could go either way right now.

And there's a very big difference if Democrats run one part of Congress and Republicans the other, or if Republicans run all of Congress.

There's also a huge difference if Republicans win the House of Representatives by just 10 seats or by 20 seats.

There's a huge difference in what they can do.

And so every single race is being watched very closely because these tiny margins can really add up to substantial policy changes.

Let's ground that historically because if I'm

a person who's just like, wait, I know that Democrats have control of the House.

So what you're telling me, we're going to lose it right now.

But isn't it 18 of the last 20 elections where a first term president is sitting, their party has lost the House in 18 of the last 20 elections?

This is historically typical.

Excellent perspective.

It's almost always the case that when a president is elected, in the next cycle after he's elected, the opposite party wins the house.

So it's sort of our way of like.

balancing things out.

So anytime like George Bush wins for president, the next midterm, the Democrats win the House and he calls it a shellacking.

He guy got a shellacking.

It happened under Obama.

It happens consistently.

So you're absolutely right.

And that's

important perspective.

If Republicans take control, that's what's expected.

Like that's what tends to happen.

The reason this feels slightly different is because of this election denial thing, right?

Like what happens if

those folks have more of a voice?

And then what we're looking at within that is by how much do they win?

And so if Republicans win like 10 seats or fewer in the house they're still in charge but it'll be very hard for them to pass like a federal abortion ban

if they win 20 or more seats at difference from the democrats that's a different story and they can get a lot more passed and in the spring a lot of sources were projecting that they would take 30 seats.

It was very, very high hopes in the spring.

How has that changed?

This is such an interesting, like if you're into examining dynamics and psychology, this is an interesting conversation because a lot of it's about expectation and setting an expectations game.

And then there's also the question of, is the polling right?

And I think it's worth just spending a beat on this because people are always asking me about polling.

And we don't know if the polling is right.

So a lot of our predictions right now are based on these polls.

The thing to understand about how polls are done is they have a formula that pollsters for calling a certain number of people who fit a certain demographic, like this many young white women, this many young black women, this many young Hispanic women, like categories, right?

And then they decide those people are representative of a much larger group of voters, but they have to decide how many of these should I put in, like how many young white women are likely to vote.

And then they build these formulas based on it that are kind of

made up.

And one of the things we've seen that's happened since the Trump election is these pollsters undercounted that conservative Republican Trump vote.

We call it the invisible Trump vote.

Remember, everybody thought Trump wouldn't win and then he did.

So pollsters undercounted the invisible Trump vote in 2016.

So now they add in extra Trump vote.

They add in more because they think these people aren't answering their phones.

They won't talk to us.

We're not seeing them.

So we just have to assume they're out there and put them into the formula.

But this one puts that much in, this one puts a little less in, this one, we don't know how many there are.

And so a lot of these polls are just sort of like best guesses.

And increasingly, young people won't answer their phone and talk to pollsters or they're only, so we just does anyone answer their phone?

I feel like every poll has to be like wildly unrepresentative of the average American because who the hell is answering their phone?

Not reliable.

So that's one of the reasons everyone's like, we just don't know what's going to happen.

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Can I ask you a question about whether this is real or not?

Because I always have a hunch, and this could be totally wrong, that people

say they're going to vote for the more progressive person because they're ashamed to say that they are going to vote for the Trumpy election denier or woman or whoever they're like have all the biases against say sure I'm going to vote for that person and then they go into the poll and they think no I just want to I'm going to vote for whoever will like keep my money safe and then they do the other vote is there a shame polling

Yes, that's the assessment of part of what happened in 2016, why the polling was so wrong.

People said they weren't going to vote for Trump and then did.

There's the other piece piece of it is they're just not answering the phone.

Right.

Right.

But we do know that women have voted more than men in every election since 1980 and that we are seeing a surge in women registering to vote post-Dobbs.

So are they taking account that surge of new registrations into these polls?

Or is that just this unknown quantity that we don't know?

It might be like a Kansas situation and we're not aware of it.

And can you explain Dobbs?

Absolutely.

The Dobbs ruling was the decision that ended Roe versus Wade and ended our legal right to abortion nationally in this country.

Before that Dobbs decision, which came out in the summer,

that's when, Amanda, you were saying that there was all this expectation that Republicans would sweep this election.

And it was totally expected that that would be the case because the economy is in a confusing place.

Some things are good, some things are bad.

And inflation is not only a problem, but it's in your face all the time, right?

You drive past the gas station and that's like your measure of how we're doing for some weird reason because you see it all the time.

And I'm obsessed with how we, how you deal with that.

But so the assumption was Republicans would sweep.

And then the Supreme Court ended abortion rights in America.

And that energized Democrats and created more of a tension where both parties have a chance.

To answer your question directly, the people who've been most energized by the federal right to abortion ending are young women.

And young women voters have registered at record numbers since then.

The challenge is whether they will actually vote.

And the problem is that young people often register and don't vote.

And the people who are most likely to vote of all voters are white seniors who tend to vote Republican.

And when young people are frustrated that the system doesn't reflect their values or their future, like why isn't climate prioritized?

Because young people aren't turning out to raise their voice in the same numbers and the same way that these other folks are.

And as excited as some young women are to vote, and abortion is a factor in this,

the other groups that are most excited are older white Republican men

this cycle.

Are younger white women voting more progressively than older white women do?

Because older white women, you know, my generation keeps disappointing us

cycle after cycle after cycle.

So does this even help us to have more young white people voting?

Right now, Dobbs has energized young white women to vote Democratic.

There's a sense of shock, like, how could this happen?

Who's in charge if this is happening?

And we've got to participate.

We've got to say something.

And so that's driving more engagement.

It's my own view that people haven't fully processed the impact of all this.

It's not the case that everybody knows somebody who's had a nectopic pregnancy and couldn't get a procedure at the hospital yet.

But soon that's going to be the case.

So it might take a cycle for this to really sink in for a lot of young women, what's happening.

But you're already starting to see, yes, young white women engaged on this issue.

The question is, there's still time today.

Are you going to vote?

Right.

And I think that it's so important.

You know, we're talking about the likelihood of us losing the house and still how important it is for you to go get your ass to the polls and vote.

This is our right and our bodily autonomy that we're talking about.

Even if we know that we're going to lose, it is so important to actually start laying the groundwork.

And Miriam Kaba, the abolitionist advocate, and she always says, Hope is a discipline.

I mean, it isn't, yes, it isn't that you have to hope you're going to win, it's that you have to

do your discipline over and over and over to generate the hope that you're going to need.

We started with saying how

kind of this laughable thing of folks who were galvanized two years ago and are not seeing changes and they're not willing to show up.

But I think the opposite is also true, the reverse from us.

We can say like, oh, they're so silly.

Why aren't they showing up?

But it's also this moment of saying, actually, these activists who have been, who have been rallying around climate for a really long time

to the absolute just

neglect

of the established political system including folks like me we have an opportunity to reach out and say okay

you are passionate about climate you are passionate about union organizing i am passionate about reproductive justice we are all aligned in this desire and we need to form a coalition and we need to show up for each other.

And we can talk about the people that aren't showing up.

Like, who are we not showing up for?

Is an important question to be asking ourselves so that we really can

build the kind of coalitions that are going to last for generations.

I think that that's so important because, you know, the Republicans have stuck together.

And I do believe that there is a sense that like in my mindset, that if something doesn't change right away, that I'm like, oh, it's over.

We have to override that and take some of the lessons.

Might not be this year, might not be in the next four years, but we have to stick together and continue voting and do the hard things now so that we can eventually one day have actual freedoms that we're trying to fight for.

And it's important to also remember what has gotten done.

I cover politics, so I sit in judgment a bit, but it's surprising to me how bad the Democrats have been at explaining all the things they've managed to do in the last two years,

which does include the biggest climate bill that has ever passed Congress, right?

Infrastructure that will not just rebuild roads and create EV charging stations across the country and is like solving your supply chain problems right now, but also bring broadband to parts of the country that don't have it so that everybody can be online, bring buses to communities where single moms live and need to be able to get to work.

Like this is the real stuff of government and it's happening.

It's just like not being communicated.

It sort of happens and it disappears into the ether.

I watched Obama on the campaign trail the other day and I had the thought that like, you know, his value isn't just in turning out the voters at the end.

I think his value to Democrats is in defining the message.

And that when he is out there explaining, everybody else starts taking those

themes and messaging in the same vein.

And there hasn't been one of those exceptional communicators on the campaign trail this cycle for Democrats.

And I do think they've suffered for it.

But there's been a lot done that just is ignored or overlooked.

It is a failure of what we have here, it is a failure to communicate.

You know, it's just, I mean, the climate bill, yes, it's 26, I think, that we're going to start reaping that, but it's out there.

That's a huge deal.

What President Obama was talking about is that

if we lose the House and the Senate, they will hold the debt ceiling hostage to cut Social Security.

That's what they're saying.

They're saying they want to cut Social Security.

They want to cut some health care benefits.

There is going to be a federal abortion ban that they want to pass at some stage.

I don't know if it'll be a 15-week ban or more.

Who knows what they'll do on the election?

They want to impeach a number of Biden administration officials, like name a person in the administration.

Basically, there's a plan to impeach them.

I mean,

a lot.

There is in the ether the feeling of apathy towards voting because of, well, we have a president.

We couldn't even keep Roe.

So, what is the point?

And it's annoying because every time then they come out and say, women, get your shit together.

We got to do the thing.

And then women vote, and then nothing happens.

Not only do we have the presidency, we have control over the Senate and the House and the White House.

So, can you explain how on earth does Roe get overturned when we have that?

And why was it never not codified?

Why are they now saying, oh, we promise if we win this time, we'll codify it.

Why the hell didn't you do it before?

So, yes.

Okay, let me take it one at a time.

The reason Roe was overturned is because people didn't vote for Hillary Clinton.

Full stop.

Anybody who's pro-choice and didn't vote for Hillary Clinton, that's why Rover is overturned because she was running against Donald Trump.

Donald Trump appointed three Supreme Court justices.

He made it clear he was against abortion.

He said he would overturn Roe.

When someone's running for office, you have to listen to what they're telling you.

And all the people say, no, they're just running on that.

They won't do it.

Listen to what they're telling you.

He said he would do it.

He made good on that commitment.

Abortion went away.

If she had been in office, she would have appointed three members of the Supreme Court who would have upheld or expanded.

reproductive rights.

So that's one case where your vote made a crucial difference.

And I looked at all the people who were like marching for the women's march after Trump was elected and thinking, where was this before?

That's when it really would have moved the needle.

So that's one thing.

Two,

why wasn't it codified?

You know, we do have a very upsetting history of Democrats not going to the mat for women's rights.

And I'm just going to say it straight up.

And I'm going to make some like not friends for saying this, but when Obama had to reopen government during one of the debt battles, the thing he conceded on was a certain kind of funding for abortion in the District of Columbia.

Like, I'm going to give Republicans that we won't fund abortion in the District of Columbia to get government reopened.

Like, that sometimes you have to make hard choices.

He made a hard choice.

He did it at the expense of women's reproductive rights in the District of Columbia.

During the health care reform debate, when we were trying to pass Obamacare, the thing that was the last holdup was funding for contraception.

And it was Nancy Pelosi, who I have to say to her credit, because she is a stalwart on this issue.

She went into negotiations with Catholic members and said, we won't fund contraception through Obamacare.

We will find a workaround where it gets funded, but we will concede that to you.

And so it is the case over and over that the thing that is demanded to close the deal is sacrificing women's bodily autonomy in one way or another.

The silver lining version of what just happened with abortion is that it gives

people who support reproductive rights an opportunity to regroup and reframe the fight and make a new agenda.

And folks who are organizing behind that are arguing that bodily autonomy is a basic human right.

And that redefines what they're fighting for.

And that means, you know, pushing for a bill in Congress and then thinking about what we might be facing in the next few years, sometimes it's in the course of a fight where the choices are so obvious and stark that you actually finally make real forward progress.

But if the reason why Roe went away is because of Supreme Court justices, where is the hope?

Roe was lost because you had a Republican in the White House and a Republican Senate that approved those Supreme Court justices and basically got the court to move very far to the right.

Now, this court is a young court, and these justices are likely to be there for a very long time.

And by one analysis, you know, the court is lost to democratic and progressive values for the next decade.

If one believes that, one has to take a very long-term view and organize

for the horizon, right?

To have this stuff realized for one's kids in the future

and not losing sight of that goal, just like anti-choice forces didn't lose sight of the goal.

The difference on the other stuff, though, is you still have a Democrat in the White House.

So, let's say Congress passes a federal abortion ban, Biden can veto it, right?

Okay.

There's a whole bunch of stuff Congress can pass that Biden's going to veto.

And if you have a close Senate, it also means that they can impeach everyone they want in the House, but they're not going to get convicted in the Senate.

So, it is important to have as many, you know, a balance as possible possible to sort of as a check on what can be done.

And as a response to like, why haven't Democrats done more?

We started this off by talking about the Senate and saying it was basically 50-50 with Kamala Harris breaking ties.

You can't get a lot done there because then every single person in the Senate is a king.

And one person says, I don't want to support this because I want you to fund mosquito control in my district.

And that person has enormous power.

So every single person can stop things.

A party needs a much bigger margin.

Even two vote margin right now would make a difference where Democrats could pass their agenda.

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So let's talk about

the Senate.

So there's 35 seats up.

There's at least what five to seven that are really neck and neck.

Yep.

So it's possible it's going to come down to Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia.

Yes.

So

Wisconsin.

Nevada.

People are watching.

Yeah.

Okay.

Nevada.

All of those are crucial and could go either way.

And the big question is the Republicans are running on the economy and crime, and Democrats are running largely on securing democracy and abortion.

And trying to argue that Biden's done a lot, but as we've discussed, their message isn't really connecting or clear.

So the races everybody's paying the closest attention to of those are in Pennsylvania and Georgia, because those two states are considered like that will decide.

And the one in Pennsylvania is between this guy Fetterman and Dr.

Oz.

Oz was endorsed by Trump.

Oz is the one who said that, you know, local elected officials will be in the room with you when you're deciding your abortion.

And

Fetterman is sort of this progressive firebrand who had a stroke.

Oh, right.

Yeah.

And his communication is extremely challenged.

Dr.

Oz has really been like, was way behind him and is like coming up on him because Fetterman debated.

He had, you know, word finding challenges as a person who's recovering from a stroke.

So there's a lot of question about whether he's ready for office.

And Oz is fully backed by Trump and the Republicans are pouring tons of money into that race.

So there's questions about whether Federman is ready for office.

There is no question about whether Oz is ready for office.

And that is a hard no.

Hard no.

Yeah, exactly.

Exactly.

And also, if the shit all comes down to Pennsylvania, that is a very remarkable place for it to come down because Pennsylvania is the state in the last election that made a concerted decision to not count the early ballots until later so that it looked like there was this wild swing in votes.

That political infrastructure is ready for a sneaky fight.

Is that correct?

Totally.

Totally.

And that's such a good point.

We should really make this point, which is we might not know the results of the election tonight.

And that is not weird.

That is normal.

That is democracy working.

Don't worry.

So because so many people are voting early, those ballots get counted separate from the votes that are counted on election day, the votes that are cast on election day.

And different states allow different rules on counting those early votes.

So some states have been counting early votes as they come in the door and they'll be ready to announce right away.

But like Pennsylvania waits, right?

They waited last time.

So that it looks like intentionally.

Yeah,

why are they waiting?

To confuse things, because to make it more trumpy.

Because Republicans tend to vote on election day, Democrats vote early.

And so if you count election day vote, it looks like the Republicans are going to win.

When you start adding in early ballots, things start to change.

And so, in Pennsylvania in 2020 announced, like, look at the returns from the day of voting.

And then, as you start counting early ballots, it changed to a Biden victory.

And Trump has said that that was a fake thing.

That's why he was going to stand up

and commit the treason of claiming that he had won at the precise moment where it it could have looked like he won because the ballots were not counted.

And Pennsylvania made the decision to not count the ballots to prepare him for that moment.

So it would look like a win was taken from him instead of just half the ballots being counted.

Got it.

And the two states we're talking about as like these contested Senate races or these hotly watched Senate races are Pennsylvania, which he discussed, and Georgia, where you know that's where Trump called and said, find me 11,000 votes.

So

they're the states we watch watch for shenanigans.

I'll tell you that in Pennsylvania, the guy who's running for governor

is a full-on election denier, says if he wins, he will deregister all the states' voters and he will decide all the rules.

And I mean, it's just

hashtag hot mess, but he does not look like he's going to win.

There's a lot of crazy like that out there right now.

The other race I should point out is in Georgia, where you have Herschel Walker, who is this like, I don't even know how to describe him.

I don't know.

He makes Dr.

Oz look good.

And then he's running against Raphael Warnock, who is amazing, the income Democrat who's a pastor.

Their race could go to a runoff.

And if it goes to a runoff, it seems like it could tilt to the Democrats.

That's the Democrats' hope is that it goes to a runoff and Warnock wins in the end.

So that's something to watch for.

What's a runoff?

That's when neither person gets more than 50%.

And so the top two vote getters go face to face in another election in a few weeks.

Thank you.

Some things that I think are worth noticing is in Arizona, there's a governor's race between this woman named Carrie Lake, who's a former TV reporter.

Nikes.

Super polished, super charismatic and energetic, great communicator.

and says things like an abortion ban would put more rapists in jail.

Doesn't make sense.

Nobody knows what she's talking about.

That's where she stands.

She also denies the election and all those things.

She's doing really, really well and could be a new Trump because she's just much more likable and packaged.

She's running against this woman, Katie Hobbs, who

is the secretary of state in that state and really held the line on protecting the democracy, protecting the election, has withstood death threats.

And that's a neck and neck race that's worth paying attention to tonight.

I think that's so important that you brought her up because,

Lake, because

what

I don't think that we're talking about enough is

what it means to run

an election

in a place where the president has set a precedent to say,

I will not accept the outcome of the election.

So Lake, for example,

has not said that she will accept the outcome of the election.

So, we have a system now

where I can run,

say the thing is rigged.

It's heads I win, tails you lose.

If I run my race and I win, then I win.

If I run my race and I lose, then I win because I've been running this whole time based on the fact that this is

a system that is broken and and fake and false.

Right.

And they have actually made clear that they're going to use Arizona as a test case, meaning Trump and his crew, to challenge election results and create chaos, sort of.

Why do we care that they say, it doesn't matter, I don't believe I didn't win?

Then what is democracy?

So the reason we work is because we all agree that this is the system and the results are what we accept.

We accept that when our Secretary of State says this many votes went to this person, therefore they win.

We believe it and we move on.

And if we decide not to follow those rules, we no longer adhere to the law.

We no longer have a common bond.

We are no longer a society that shares the same rules of the road.

You know, democracy is a choice to believe these things every day.

Moreover, if we are asking everyday citizens

to

stop their life, buy into a system, and believe that their vote counts and that elections matter.

And then you have the people who are at the top of the system who are running for office saying elections do not matter, then the entire infrastructure dissolves.

So it's total disenfranchisement there.

It's like confidence in the market being the indicator of the market.

If confidence in our system does not exist, there is no system to exist.

Right.

And there's already such a loss of faith in our government.

I think it goes back to people felt lied to about the Iraq war, people felt lied to after it.

You know, all these things add up.

You know, there's like a lot of lie telling.

People feel it intuitively.

And so they've stopped believing.

And one of my weird obsessions these days is I mentioned how gas prices are always in your face.

And somehow we read that as a sign of our economic well-being or not, we need to come up with ways to show you the good that's being done.

Like when they build, spend, you know, $50 million building you a new highway, why doesn't it say built for you by the U.S.

government on it?

Just like show you.

I mean, maybe that's the bad example, but I think we need more reminders of what government is doing for us and how it's working.

And that's where a lot of creative energy should go right now.

And I think we need more conversations about

really what these issues are.

I mean, I reject the proposition that we need to decide whether our most important

value

and issue is the economy or abortion.

I wish to ask of any woman in America whether a in a country that does not provide

parental leave, that does not have an infrastructure of affordable child care, whether a forced birth affects her economy.

It sure as shit does.

Like abortion is an economic justice issue.

It is a social justice issue.

Climate change is an economic justice issue and a social justice issue.

When we see past these labels that they are trying to give us these false dichotomies that we choose A or B and in any event have to vote against ourselves, we should call bullshit and say we do not choose A or B.

We choose C and we are together with these other groups that are seeking C and you can go to hell.

Same the other way.

I mean, the Republicans are always voting as tough on crime.

These are the ones that will not pass sensible gun laws.

They are completely light on crime.

Why are we allowing that to be the

talking point on that side?

Big communication failures.

Yeah.

So what's at stake, would you say, today?

If as we're projecting, what happens is that Republicans take the House anywhere from five seats to 20 seats.

We're not sure, but we still need to get on vote because that is a very variable number.

We don't have the house and we either preserve the Senate or the Republicans take the Senate.

How does life change in that decision tree?

So I think that there's two sets of policy issues.

One is sort of like the democracy stuff and impeachment.

We'll put that over here and come back to it.

In terms of policies, I think that a

decisive Republican majority, more than 10 in the House, would pass some kind of federal abortion ban that could be 15 weeks or more, but we've never had that post-row.

That's never been a reality.

They would...

uh try to carve out parts of social security and even medicare and possibly you know, play with the debt ceiling to do that.

That is the full faith and credit of the United States that would harm our economy immeasurably if they mess with that.

I think that they'll try to do something on immigration because remember what they're trying to do is

pile up a number of actions they can say we have pursued so they can use that in a 2024 campaign to fire up their base and say we need control of everything.

And so they're going to do the most extreme version of all the things, not the consensus version, because they want the issue, not the win.

So they're going to say, we're going to try to shut the border, not create a new immigration policy that'll work for everybody.

They are also going to try to make the 2017 tax cuts permanent that benefited corporations and the wealthiest.

And part of the reason they want to carve up other things is to figure out how to pay for that.

In addition, we can't know what they're going to do on elections.

So let's say a number of these election denier types get elected in states.

Does Congress change the rules and allow the states to have a final say on how electors are certified?

I don't know.

It might be the court that's going to do that anyway.

The court's hearing it.

And then the House is also going likely, a Republican House, to impeach

Biden Harris, Merritt Garland, Homeland Security, immigration, all the things.

I don't think any of those impeachments will succeed.

They won't get convicted in the Senate.

If Democrats hold the Senate, all of it will be blocked.

All of that will be blocked.

Except the budget stuff because the House has unusual power with the budget and that gets hinky.

And if Republicans control the Senate, it ultimately gets vetoed by Biden.

Except the budget stuff, which is challenging because he might have to sign off on some stuff he doesn't like in order to keep government running.

And that's always a negotiation in the moment, depending on exactly the issues at stake.

Well, I'm sure there's some kind of women's issue he can just throw to another person.

What What would make you think you do that?

This administration, I think, knows politically F with women at your own peril right now.

Like, women, like, we don't got no Fs to give anymore.

I know you guys say it.

I don't know how to say it.

That was so good.

It was so good.

I don't know how to say it.

No, fucks Ray.

I don't have to give.

I'll say it.

I have no fucks to give.

Yeah.

Thank you.

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Speaking of disasters, We're coming to this point where

Elon Musk has purchased Twitter and we're dealing with incredible misinformation already.

Can you talk to us about how

that is going to potentially affect today,

beyond today?

And also the thing I keep waking up in the middle of the night worried about, which is that was he going to let Trump back on Twitter?

Yeah.

And then also, how do people sanely and wisely stay informed?

So on the Musk thing, it's hard not to see what he's doing as being an agent of chaos right now.

The first thing he did after he bought it was he posted misinformation or disinformation because at that point we knew it wasn't true.

He's now suggested, and I'm not sure it's clear, but that if you pay, you can get a blue check for verification.

So I don't.

I don't understand, but if that's the version, then we don't know who's a legitimate source and who's not.

I don't know if they're also verifying you as a legitimate person.

And we know that we've seen an explosion of hate language on the platform in just the days since.

I also think it's incredibly important to point out that they did a thing where they also sent in fake employees to come out of the building crying and pretending they'd been laid off to go talk to reporters and tell reporters they'd been laid off.

And reporters went out on air and reported that.

And then they were laughed at and discredited.

So he's punked the press, which I don't know how to say it.

That's a thing that fascists do.

So

I'm very confused and conflicted because I know I personally think that Musk is an exceptionally talented CEO.

Like put aside how,

you know, who he is as a guy, how he is in public, his public persona, what he does in business is make new things possible.

And he seems rational to some extent in what he's done with Tesla and SpaceX.

But in Twitter, his choices so far have not been rational as advancing a business interest.

He has just eroded the credibility of Twitter beyond where it was before rapidly in just a few days.

So the reason I think this matters, even though most people aren't on Twitter, Most of the press is.

And it's where we in the media flex for each other, drop tips, pick up on other people's tips, share ideas, and form consensus.

We all kind of coalesce around a story.

If Twitter is just a hellscape,

at some point people will leave, but in between now and then, does it redirect what we're talking about, the ideas that are in circulation, et cetera?

I will say that advertisers are already pausing.

People are very skeptical.

So there's a lot of awareness, but I definitely would not rely on Twitter for verified information.

And I just think there might be a time when we all have to find new platforms.

Yeah.

Yep.

In terms of where I go for news, go to people who you trust and ask them who they trust.

So for folks who listen to all of you, you're pointing to trusted experts, right?

The guests you have on are people you say, I trust in this space.

And so this audience should know those are people that are trustworthy.

And I can follow people in in their space that they trust.

I post news on Instagram.

And one of my everyday things is I post articles by news outlets I trust so that people know these are good sources.

All the major news outlets that you kind of sneer at or feel are annoying or are biased one way or another verify their sources.

It's not made up.

So I advise people to pick three places you like to go to.

three times a day to check your news and check those places at those times.

And when you find yourself getting sucked into a rabbit hole say oh i'm doing that i'm gonna stop yeah that's good what do you want people today election day

to know

what do you feel like is the most important thing to leave people with on this extremely important day where what people do or don't do might well determine the future of the country or will determine

we lost abortion rights because some people didn't vote

these things matter and i know that sometimes it's hard to get to the polling place or you don't know everything on your ballot or you really tell yourself, every year they say this, but my vote's really not the thing.

Make yourself do it.

Just do it.

And if you don't know your whole ballot, go in and vote for the three things you know.

You don't have to fill, it's not an exam.

You're not getting graded.

You don't have to fill it all out.

Do what you can do.

That's good.

If you have voted, Call one friend who you think might not have voted and tell them what I just told you or offer to drive them to the poll, or text them and say, Hey, I know it's sometimes hard to figure out where your polling place is.

I found it, here's the address, and here's a Google Maps to it.

If you voted, make it easier for one person to vote.

Honestly, this is, we don't have a right to complain if we're not showing up.

That's right.

That's right.

That's so right.

Sissy, what about you?

What do you want to leave the Cloud Squad with?

I worry about this conversation that it's been a lot of like,

well, they suck and they suck more.

But I think when truly

we are at this point right now, where if we sit it out, there are folks who are willing to take this American experiment and run with it.

That is what the people who started this particular baby

infant of a government that we're still living in called it.

They called it the American experiment.

And this American experiment is being highly tested in this moment.

And so the experiment requires the presence of folks who

will will it

to be

the will of the people.

I'm thinking of the James Baldwin quote.

I love America more than any other country in the world.

And exactly for this reason, I insist on the right to criticize her perpetually.

We are criticizing at every level and every form because

that is part of this process.

That is part of showing up.

That is making our voice heard and calling people to account and calling them to be better for us.

And that is not cynicism.

Cynicism is sitting out.

Criticism

is engaging and calling people to more.

And that's what we need to continue to do, or we're handing over the keys to folks who will do terrible things with this experiment.

Can I add that this is, I'm not pessimistic.

Like I think this is the playoffs before the big event, which is 2024.

And you got to show up for the playoffs to get in the main thing, right?

And so we're setting that up.

And if Republicans sweep, I do think what will happen is so much extremist policy will be passed that it'll be a wake-up call to the non-voters who will show up in droves in 24.

So, one way or another, I think we're in this process where the things that were covert are becoming overt.

It's waking up new people to our political process.

There's more engagement and more attention being paid, and that will only increase.

And people have to show up today to show that they're part of that whole process because it is an experiment and every one of us matters.

Pod squad, we vote.

That's right.

We are going to vote when the next generation looks at us.

And no matter what's going on in this country, in this world, we will at least be able to say that we showed up to stand for what we believe in and what we want for ourselves and our children and our future.

So

go vote.

And then we can watch the TV.

And now we will understand what the hell's going on.

Thank you so much, Jessica.

Thank you.

It's such a joy to be with you.

You're the absolute best.

We can do this.

Yes,

that's right, Jessica.

Thank you.

Thanks, Pod Squad.

Go vote.

We'll see you next time.

I give you Tish Melton and Brandy Carlisle.

I walked through fire, I came out the other side.

I chased desire.

I made sure sure I got what's mine

And I continue

to believe

That I'm the one for me

And because I'm mine,

I walk the line

Cause we're adventurers and heartbreaks on map.

A final destination

lack.

We've stopped asking directions

to places they've never been.

And to be loved, we need to be known.

We'll finally find our way back home.

And through the joy and pain

that our lives

bring,

we can do a hard thing.

I hit rock bottom, it felt like a brand new start.

I'm not the problem,

sometimes things fall apart.

And I continue

to believe

the best

people are free.

And it took some time,

but I'm finally fine.

Cause we're adventurers, and heartbreaks on that.

A final destination

we lack.

We've stopped asking directions

to places they've never been.

And to be loved, we need to be known.

We'll finally find our way back home.

And through the joy and pain

that our lives

bring,

we can do a hard thing

Cause we're adventurers and heartbreaks on that.

We might get lost, but we're okay with that.

We've stopped asking directions

in some places they've never been.

And to be loved, we need to belong.

We'll finally find

our way back on.

And through the joy and pain

that our lives bring,

we can do hard things.

Yeah, we can do hard things.

Yeah, we

can do hard

things.

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