The negative wealth effect

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Speaker 4 Today we'll talk jobs, dwindling 401ks, and the disappearance of the sub-compact car. And of course, we'll cover tariffs too.
From American Public Media, this is Marketplace.

Speaker 4 In New York, I'm Kristen Schwab in for ChirisDoll. It's Tuesday, April 1st.
Good to have you with us.

Speaker 4 The headline number of the day has nothing to do with the T-word, though we will get to tariffs in a bit.

Speaker 4 Today, we kick things off with the Jolts report, or the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, out this morning from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Changed little is the phrase of the day.

Speaker 4 February saw 7.6 million job openings and 5.4 million hires, both about the same as in January. And the number of quits and layoffs didn't change much either.

Speaker 4 Remember, February's numbers do not reflect the bulk of federal layoffs. We might get a better picture of that come the March jobs report out on Friday.

Speaker 4 Overall, though, this Jolt's data shows what looks like a steady, decent labor market. With one asterisk, layoffs were up at the smallest of small businesses.

Speaker 4 That's companies with fewer than 10 workers. Marketplace's Daniel Ackerman looked into small business staffing decisions.

Speaker 5 Eric Saunders runs Carolina Landscaping and Cleanup near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.

Speaker 5 He's got just a couple full-time employees, and with major question marks over over how much his customers are willing to spend these days, he sure isn't hiring.

Speaker 6 Yeah, holding steady. Unless the market changes to where people aren't so worried about every little cent they have, it's kind of hard to do anything right now with laborers.

Speaker 5 Holding steady in the face of uncertainty was kind of the theme of today's Jolts report, says Ron Hetrick, senior labor economist with Lightcast.

Speaker 7 Workers don't want to go anywhere. Employers don't want to hire.
Everybody just freezes.

Speaker 5 Really small businesses, though, were laying off workers at a higher rate than anyone else.

Speaker 5 Pavlina Cherneva, an economist at Bard College, says that's an indicator to watch because even though firms with fewer than 10 workers represent just about one-eighth of total employment, to me, their behavior is bellwether for overall trends in the economy.

Speaker 5 Cherneva says that's because small firms have no choice but to respond quickly to a changing economy.

Speaker 9 A small business owner really is working day to day, month to month.

Speaker 7 They don't have savings, liquidity, access to credit nearly to the same extent as a big company would.

Speaker 5 So when small businesses feel the need to cut costs, reducing workforce is a tempting lever to pull, says Lindsay Owens, executive director of Progressive Think Tank Groundwork Collaborative.

Speaker 10 Our measures of small business uncertainty have skyrocketed. And so for me, it is no surprise at all that we're starting to see the layoffs in small businesses.

Speaker 5 But sentiment has soured among businesses of all sizes, says Guy Berger of Economic Research Nonprofit, the Burning Glass Institute.

Speaker 11 It's just that a large enterprise, like we always joke, is a super tanker, right? It takes time to turn around.

Speaker 5 So changes to headcount might take an extra month or two to play out. I'm Daniel Ackerman for Marketplace.

Speaker 4 Wall Street today, a little up, a little down, as it waits to hear more on tariff policy. We'll have the details when we do the numbers.

Speaker 4 Tomorrow, on April 2nd, or what President Trump has been calling Liberation Day, the U.S.

Speaker 4 intends to impose a 25% tariff on imported vehicles, light trucks, and auto parts, which were announced last week.

Speaker 4 There may be other tariffs on the table, but Trump has not yet announced his full plan. The thing about ever-shifting and unannounced plans is they're hard to plan for.

Speaker 4 So we called up one of our regulars, Gretchen Blau, is a customs broker manager at Logistics Plus in Erie, Pennsylvania. Hi, Gretchen.
How are you?

Speaker 7 Good.

Speaker 4 Is that a loaded question right now?

Speaker 7 Yeah, this week it kind of is.

Speaker 4 Can you catch me up on what's happened since we last heard from you? What is work like right now?

Speaker 7 Well, it's a little crazy.

Speaker 7 We have the steel and aluminum tariffs that are in effect, and then we have a bunch of other tariffs that are going into effect tomorrow.

Speaker 7 The steel and aluminum, that has the 25% tariff on it with no exclusions, no exceptions.

Speaker 7 But there's also some finished goods that have this tariff on it as well, where if a large component of steel or aluminum in the finished good,

Speaker 7 we basically need to break everything out into a bill of material, and then that 25% only applies to the steel or the aluminum, and then the rest doesn't have the 25%.

Speaker 7 So that's presenting a problem for a lot of our importers because none of us were expecting that.

Speaker 7 If they don't have that information, then everything has the 25% apply to the entire good, which no one really wants that to happen either, but you have way what costs more the storage or the tariff at this point.

Speaker 2 Right.

Speaker 4 Well, that's a that's a lot of ins and outs. How do you even

Speaker 4 how do you even keep track of all the nitty-gritty when the rules are constantly changing? And, you know, I assume you

Speaker 4 can dot all your I's and cross your T's.

Speaker 7 Oh, it's not, it's not always easy. Mostly we're relying on the Federal Register when it's updated, but that's not always updated right away.

Speaker 7 We used to have fact sheets available on the government websites, and those seem to have gone away.

Speaker 7 So we're relying a lot on,

Speaker 7 you know, just news publications and whatnot to get

Speaker 7 a lot of the information as to how things are going to apply

Speaker 7 because we don't have things readily available.

Speaker 7 So we're trying to keep our customers up to date and our operations folks up to date.

Speaker 7 And it's not always easy to do that when we're not quite sure what's going to happen for example tomorrow um there's there's scheduled to be 25 on canada mexico and also retaliatory tariffs which we aren't quite certain what those are going to include um for other countries

Speaker 4 you know i talked to i talked to a small-scale banana importer yesterday who was talking about how she just doesn't have a lot of alternatives. She's got to import from Mexico.

Speaker 4 What are you hearing from your clients about buying in America or buying American?

Speaker 7 Well, you know, you see that a lot on comments, on Facebook posts and whatnot, but

Speaker 7 that's not always realistic.

Speaker 7 There's a lot of stuff that you can buy that's made in America that has foreign components.

Speaker 7 And,

Speaker 7 you know, it hurts manufacturers here

Speaker 7 because now they have to pay more for their components.

Speaker 7 Buy America,

Speaker 7 it's not

Speaker 7 always the alternative. And

Speaker 7 the other thing is, if the manufacturing does come back to the United States for these component parts, it's going to take some time to build the plants and get things operational in order to source them here in the U.S.

Speaker 4 You know, as somebody who has an intimate look on the ground of how tariffs are impacting businesses, also your own work,

Speaker 4 how much planning can you do for the next few months or the year ahead? Or is it just more of a day-by-day

Speaker 4 in-the-moment kind of workplace right now?

Speaker 7 Well, it tends to be just an in-the-moment type thing.

Speaker 7 It's really hard to plan when,

Speaker 7 as we saw with the tariffs with Canada and Mexico, they're on again, they're off again, they're on again, they're off again. You don't know what's going to happen from day to day sometimes.

Speaker 7 And plus, the retaliatory tariffs, we don't even know what those are going to be.

Speaker 4 Do you have a long day ahead of you? What are your work days like right now?

Speaker 7 My work days are answering a lot of questions.

Speaker 7 You know, a lot of upset importers right now, kind of, you know, explaining everything to everyone, having people that aren't too happy because they had something on the water in order to import it.

Speaker 7 It's cost 25% more than they were expecting. And people try and explain to me that, you know, they've had this purchased for six months.
Why do they have to pay this now?

Speaker 7 And I really don't have a good answer for them because I'm just the messenger, unfortunately.

Speaker 4 Gretchen Blau is a customs broker manager at Logistics Plus in Erie, Pennsylvania. Gretchen, thanks so much for coming back on the show.
Thank you.

Speaker 4 As we just talked about, cars are likely to get more expensive because of tariffs. And this is against the backdrop of the trend of cars getting more expensive.

Speaker 4 Because recently, the auto industry has been phasing out some of its lowest-priced vehicles.

Speaker 4 Mitsubishi ended production of the Mirage in December, so it'll likely be gone from dealer lots by this summer, and Nissan reportedly plans to discontinue the Versa after this year.

Speaker 4 These are the last two new car models with starting prices under $20,000, according to Car and Driver. Marketplace's Henry Epp reports on the disappearing subcompact.

Speaker 13 There's nothing fancy about the 2024 Mitsubishi Mirage. It's a small car, available as a hatchback or a sedan.

Speaker 13 Tim Bedard shows me the sedan version in black at the Mitsubishi dealership he owns near Burlington, Vermont.

Speaker 14 It has the power locks, the windows, cruise control, tilt steering wheel, air conditioning. You know, it has enough amenities to make it comfortable.

Speaker 13 But there's no getting around the fact that there's just not a lot of room inside. Though its small size, Beddard says, contributes to its real selling points.

Speaker 13 The beauty of the car is price tag, warranty, fuel efficiency. $18,000, 10-year warranty, 39 miles per gallon, better than any car that isn't a hybrid.

Speaker 13 And that sticker price, $30,000 less than the average new car right now, according to Kelly Blue Book.

Speaker 13 Bedard says it makes sense that about a third of the new vehicles he sells are Mirages, though they're not likely to turn many heads.

Speaker 2 No one's like, oh, wow, you have a Mirage? Wow, cool.

Speaker 13 Clayton Seams of Toronto bought a 2021 Mirage a couple years ago.

Speaker 13 He's an editor with the Canadian automotive publication Driving.ca, and he had some strict criteria when he was shopping for his own car.

Speaker 1 I had $15,000 cash. I want a car I could buy without a car loan or a lease.

Speaker 13 And he wanted something that was easy to drive and park in the city. The Mirage fit the bill.

Speaker 1 And despite its limitations, it's very noisy at highway speed, and the stereo is honestly not very good.

Speaker 13 He actually really likes it.

Speaker 1 It just felt like driving a car from the 90s. I was back, and it was simple, it had a manual transmission, it was charming in a way of how basic it was.

Speaker 13 But basic is not what most car buyers are looking for these days, says Jessica Caldwell, head of insights at Edmonds.

Speaker 12 We like SUVs, trucks, vehicles with just more cargo capacity. So even if it is a bit on the smaller side, it still is more of an SUV format rather than a sedan format with a trunk.

Speaker 13 For years now, she says sales of larger vehicles have been climbing. Affordable, smaller cars, on the other hand.

Speaker 12 We're just seeing the demand for these vehicles go away, despite the fact that a lot of Americans are dealing with financial difficulties right now.

Speaker 13 Caldwell says automakers have responded to that declining demand by dropping smaller vehicles from their lineups. The Ford Fiesta, Toyota Yaris, Honda Fit, all gone.

Speaker 13 But the change isn't just about consumer preferences. Bigger vehicles are more profitable.

Speaker 13 Because making a subcompact isn't that much cheaper than making an SUV, says Patrick Olson, editor-in-chief at Carfax. Some newer SUVs are even built on the same platforms as the old subcompacts.

Speaker 13 Honda's HR-V, for example, is the sibling of that discontinued Honda Fit.

Speaker 15 So for not a lot more cost and material in terms of aluminum or steel to build the car, they could put a higher price tag on it because there's more demand for that vehicle.

Speaker 13 Federal fuel economy regulations play a role too. The Trump administration is currently reviewing them, but right now they require smaller vehicles to get better mileage than bigger ones.

Speaker 13 Olson says that gives car makers an incentive to go large.

Speaker 15 Bigger SUVs, bigger pickup trucks, because it's easier to meet those standards than it is for the smallest of vehicles.

Speaker 13 The industry's increasing focus on larger vehicles has thrown the new car market out of whack, according to Burlington Mitsubishi owner Tim Beddard.

Speaker 14 With the influx of SUVs and crossovers that have taken over the market, we kind of lost sight that life was and has gotten very expensive for most people and can't afford an average crossover SUV of $30,000.

Speaker 14 What's the consumer do now?

Speaker 13 At least until the summer, Bedard expects to have Mirages available on his lot.

Speaker 13 After that, a used vehicle might be the price-conscious consumer's best option, but they're 32% more expensive than they were just before the pandemic. I'm Henry Epp for Marketplace.

Speaker 16 Coming up, biggest cost fluctuations we're looking at right now, as you can imagine, eggs.

Speaker 4 Eggs are everywhere, not just bakeries and breakfast joints, but cocktail bars too. But first, let's do the numbers.

Speaker 4 The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 11 points, essentially flat, to close at 41,989. The NASDAQ gained 150 points, 9 tenths percent, to finish at 17,449.

Speaker 4 And the SP 500 found 21 points, 4 tenths percent, to end at 56.33. The Department of Justice is reportedly close to approving Capital One's buying of Discover for $35 billion.

Speaker 4 Capital One Financial Corporation lost 6 tenths percent. Discover Financial Corporation fell 1 tenth percent.
Meanwhile, the mortgage company Rocket this week announced its acquisition of rival Mr.

Speaker 4 Cooper Group in a $9.4 billion deal.

Speaker 4 Rocket shares grew 4.4 tenths percent. Mr.
Cooper Group added 4.6 tenths percent. Bonds rose, the yield on the ten-year T-note fell to 4.16%.

Speaker 4 You're listening to Marketplace.

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Speaker 4 This is Marketplace. I'm Kristen Schwab.
The first business quarter of the year has officially closed. With that come envelopes and emails of quarterly statements for 401ks, IRAs, and mutual funds.

Speaker 4 And unfortunately, those summaries will be full of minus signs showing how much investors lost over the last three months.

Speaker 4 On this show, we often, especially over the last handful handful of years, we often talk about the wealth effect.

Speaker 4 Basically, how when assets like stocks and homes go up in value over time, people feel richer, even if it's just on paper, and are likely to spend more because of it.

Speaker 4 So what happens when investments shrink? Marketplace's Mitchell Hartman reports.

Speaker 21 Things were going really well for the stock market until they weren't anymore, says Rob Hayworth at U.S. Bank Asset Management.

Speaker 22 In the middle of February, we had the SP 500 touching new all-time highs, and we finished the quarter in negative territory for the year so far.

Speaker 21 SP 500 down 4.5%,

Speaker 21 NASDAQ down 10%.

Speaker 21 Economist Kathy Busjansik at Nationwide says there'll be a psychological impact.

Speaker 23 When you see this sharp decline in equity prices, that's the negative wealth effect. Consumers start to pull back.

Speaker 21 But here's the thing. For a lot of Americans, the majority of their wealth is in their homes.

Speaker 23 Latest data continued to show appreciation in home prices. So that in terms of like a wealth effect is still intact.

Speaker 21 And as for stocks, Sam Stovall at CFRA Research says history shows that a sharp decline followed by a quick rebound, like we've seen recently, doesn't usually lead to a prolonged downturn.

Speaker 21 But he says most small investors probably don't know that.

Speaker 24 They're the ones that are most likely to allow their emotions to become their portfolio's worst enemy.

Speaker 21 One group that's especially nervous right now, people 55 and up, seeing their retirement accounts decline in the midst of rising economic uncertainty, says Olivia Mitchell at the Wharton School.

Speaker 23 A lot of financial advisors advocate just ride the bumps. You'll be all right in the long run.

Speaker 21 Mitchell is over 70 and not really listening.

Speaker 23 I myself got basically completely out of U.S. equities about two weeks ago.

Speaker 21 As for whether recent losses on stocks will translate into less spending on stuff, Rob Hayworth at U.S. Bank says declines of this magnitude don't always squelch retail sales.

Speaker 22 The biggest driver we see for consumer spending is really, do people have jobs? And are their incomes growing?

Speaker 21 More, he says, than the negative wealth effect from a falling stock market. I'm Mitchell Hartman for Marketplace.

Speaker 4 We got a window this morning into how farmers and ranchers are feeling about the economy. Purdue University's Farmer Sentiment Index slipped in March.

Speaker 4 Farmers have weaker expectations for the future, with more than 40% of them citing trade policy as the top driver of pessimism.

Speaker 4 And five-year expectations for ag export markets hit an all-time survey low. Marketplace's Savannah Peters has more on agriculture's cloudy outlook.

Speaker 25 Farmers are used to dealing with the unknown, says Kristen Owen, managing director with the research firm Oppenheimer.

Speaker 7 We usually think about uncertainty coming from weather, coming from pests.

Speaker 25 And we usually think of federal policy as insulating the farm economy from those chaotic forces. But right now, it's piling on.

Speaker 25 Owen says farmers who were already stressed about breaking even in a tough commodity price environment now have bigger things to worry about.

Speaker 7 Where do we send grain and where do we send agricultural products globally?

Speaker 25 If countries targeted by Trump administration tariffs respond with tariffs of their own, demand could fall for American corn and soybeans and other ag exports.

Speaker 25 Michael Langemeyer, who runs the Purdue survey, says it's sort of surprising farmer sentiment wasn't lower in March.

Speaker 8 A lot of the respondents are thinking that, yes, it looks like we're going to have tariffs that are going to have a negative impact on farm income, but they're expecting some compensation.

Speaker 25 Compensation like the billions in federal relief paid to farmers during the last Trump administration trade war. Two-thirds of respondents to the Purdue survey are expecting something similar.

Speaker 25 Josh Gackle is with the American Soybean Association.

Speaker 26 Farmers would much, much rather have an open and fair and free market that we can sell our products to.

Speaker 25 Gackle farms soybeans, corn, and barley in Coulomb, North Dakota, where he says the mood is pretty jittery.

Speaker 26 If you go to the local cafe and you sit down at a table with a group of neighbors, the first thing that comes up in the conversation is, what is the price of soybeans today? What's the price of corn?

Speaker 26 What's the price of of wheat?

Speaker 25 In his small town, Gackle says everyone's livelihood is tied up in shifting trade policy. I'm Savannah Peters for Marketplace.

Speaker 4 Yesterday, Sabri Benishore did a story on how things have been a bit tough lately for bars and restaurants. Spending has been down, and so has hiring.

Speaker 4 Here's another service industry story, this time from the co-owner of a vinyl listening bar. It's the latest installment of our series, My Economy.

Speaker 27 My name is Brian Tetarakis, and I am one of the owners of Bad Medicine in Cleveland, Ohio.

Speaker 27 We call ourselves a listening bar or a hi-fi bar, so we don't do any streaming whatsoever, no Spotify, no title. Everything's played through vinyl records on a vintage hi-fi system.

Speaker 27 A lot of my friends and family, when they come in the first time, they're usually not empty-handed. So I just got some cool records from a friend I haven't seen in a while.

Speaker 27 Over the weekend, he stopped by for the first time and brought an Alice Cole train.

Speaker 27 I work at bad medicine, I would say part-time. I think about it all day, every day.

Speaker 27 I'm shooting emails and working on things on the side, but I do have a full-time day job that pays my salary until the bar can do that.

Speaker 27 We have four front of the house employees currently, not including myself, and we have two back of the house employees. One of them is a chef partner and the other one is a part-time line cook.

Speaker 27 Compensating staff is always something that we talk about and you know make sure that it's appropriate.

Speaker 27 We're one of the states where you have a tip tax credit where you can pay below minimum wage, but we pay well and above that, three to five times more, as a matter of fact.

Speaker 27 The biggest cost fluctuations we're looking at right now,

Speaker 27 as you can imagine, eggs. So egg white cocktails are very much a thing.
People request them all the time, but you know, an egg white costs about a dollar now, so it gets a little bit difficult.

Speaker 27 We use like the vegan version called Aqua Fabon. It's chickpea water.
It doesn't have the same taste to it. The texture is pretty similar.

Speaker 27 But as far as not having to raise prices or charge anyone a surcharge or anything like that, it's been pretty dependable.

Speaker 27 The bar has been negative the first couple months, but it was predominantly because we were doing so much spending as we were, you know, learning the space.

Speaker 27 And the past two months, we have not been in the negative at the end of the month. So we're hoping for greener pastures now.

Speaker 27 It's stressful owning a bar, but it's also very gratifying. My day job, I don't get to be very creative.
So I love to go in there, bounce cocktail ideas. That's my creative outlet.
That's my

Speaker 27 place that I get to go and express my work. It's my acrylics.
That's, you know, that's

Speaker 27 Van Go paints. I mix whiskey and sugar together.

Speaker 4 Brian Tedarakis, co-owner of Bad Medicine in Cleveland, Ohio. This series only works with your help.
Tell us about your economy at marketplace.org/slash slash myeconomy.

Speaker 4 This final note on the way out, another note about cars. Saw this in the Detroit Free Press.
Monthly auto sales came out today.

Speaker 4 At Ford Motor Company, sales were down a bit more than a percent compared to the same quarter last year.

Speaker 4 But that's not really the interesting part here because that number includes sales to car rental companies and the like. The interesting part is retail sales were up 5% last quarter.

Speaker 4 Analysts attribute the spike to consumers trying to get ahead of tomorrow's tariffs. The Ford Maverick saw an all-time monthly sales record in March.
The Maverick is built and assembled in Mexico.

Speaker 4 Our digital and on-demand team includes Carrie Barber, Jordan Manji, Dylan Myettinen, Janet Wynne, Olga Oxman, Ellen Rolfus, Edward Silver, Virginia K. Smith, and Tony Wagner.

Speaker 4 Francesca Levy is the executive director of Digital and On Demand. And I'm Kristen Schwab.
We'll be back here tomorrow.

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