Consumers couldn't turn frowns upside-down for long

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Speaker 5 Everything's fine

Speaker 5 from American Public Media.

Speaker 7 This is Marketplace.

Speaker 8 In Los Angeles, I'm Kai Rizdahl.

Speaker 9 It is Tuesday today. This one is the 24th of June.

Speaker 10 Good as always to have you along, everybody.

Speaker 11 First things first, the ceasefire in the Middle East does seem to be holding.

Speaker 13 Second things, second, stock and bond traders the past couple of days do seem to be taking the news out of the Middle East in stride.

Speaker 16 And third things, third, oil markets seem to be very relaxed.

Speaker 12 Brent North Sea crude the past two days, remember, that's the global benchmark, down 15%, a hair under $68 a barrel at the close today in New York. But market forces cut both ways.

Speaker 13 Marketplace's Sabri Benishore reintroduces us to the idea of risk premium.

Speaker 20 From Singapore to New York, the folks who buy and sell oil are betting Iran will not close the Strait of Hormuz, and oil prices show it. Samir Samana is with the Wells Fargo Investment Institute.

Speaker 22 Yeah, I mean, you're pretty much right where you were the day before Israel attacked a couple weeks ago.

Speaker 20 The cost of moving that oil around?

Speaker 24 We are now at around $2.95 a barrel, which is a 118% increase.

Speaker 20 Matt Wright is a a principal freight analyst at Kepler. One thing about shipping costs for oil tankers is that the price swings are kind of wild.
Like they can move by 20% and that wouldn't be news.

Speaker 24 There is typically much greater volatility in freight rates than there is in the underlying commodity price, whether it's crude or refined products or anything.

Speaker 24 That is very normal.

Speaker 20 But 118%, that is not. One reason for the increase has to do with scheduling.
Like turning a ship, scheduling a ship is slow. Oil pickups are booked 15 to 20 days in advance.

Speaker 20 So when the missiles started flying 11 days ago, some of those appointments were canceled. Now shippers are trying to squeeze in extra trips to make up for that.

Speaker 24 So vessels are going to have to come into the Mideast Gulf and pick up cargoes with a sort of shorter window than is normally done.

Speaker 20 That means more demand for ships, and that means higher prices for shipping. On top of that, you've got insurance rates on these tankers, which went up and are still up.

Speaker 20 Tim DeNoyer is vice president at ACT Research.

Speaker 25 Well, certainly the risks are still elevated in the Persian Gulf.

Speaker 20 The risk to the global oil supply may have come down, but the risk to any individual ship in the Persian Gulf, still there. Could get seized, could get hit.

Speaker 14 Who knows?

Speaker 25 I think those risks are starting to decline, but I think it might take a little time for the market to really reprice those risks.

Speaker 20 Between insurance and demand, Global Trade Intelligence firm Kepler estimates the cost of shipping oil is probably going to come mostly down within a couple weeks, assuming the ceasefire holds.

Speaker 20 In New York, I'm Sabri Benishore for Marketplace.

Speaker 2 We interrupt our commodities market coverage to bring you news of the politics of the American economy.

Speaker 16 Fed Chair Jay Powell was on Capitol Hill today for his semi-annual update to Congress. Lots of questions about lots of things.

Speaker 15 You could probably guess what they were.

Speaker 17 This particular and revealing exchange did catch our ear, though.

Speaker 18 California Democrat Juan Vargas asking the question.

Speaker 29 It's not missed on you. You know that we want you all to lower the rates.
You know that, both sides, right?

Speaker 29 You get that.

Speaker 29 The answer could be yes or no.

Speaker 30 Honestly, I'm not sure I do know that.

Speaker 6 I talked to members of the city.

Speaker 29 From our side, we'd love to see the rates go down. And I've heard from a number of my colleagues on the other side, we'd love to see the rates go down.

Speaker 7 I talked to the people who

Speaker 6 say

Speaker 30 privately, you're doing the right thing. I hear that from a lot of members privately.

Speaker 30 In any case, we have to do, you were appointed and confirmed.

Speaker 6 My colleagues and I do what we think is right.

Speaker 32 Love that long pause right at the top there.

Speaker 2 Powell is talking to the Senate tomorrow.

Speaker 12 It is a very safe bet.

Speaker 10 He's going to very much say the same stuff he said today.

Speaker 12 Wall Street on this Tuesday.

Speaker 5 Like I said, everything's fine.

Speaker 7 We'll have the details when we do the numbers.

Speaker 15 Jay Powell wasn't the only attraction on Capitol Hill today.

Speaker 9 There's the GOP's big tax cut bill still being chewed over in the Senate.

Speaker 10 You've been hearing lots about that.

Speaker 18 Crypto made an appearance, too.

Speaker 2 You might remember last week the Senate, in a rare actual bipartisan vote, passed the Genius Act, which could lead to something called stable coins becoming more common in this economy.

Speaker 17 And there was a GOP proposal today to change how and by whom most cryptocurrencies are regulated.

Speaker 7 Marketplace's Matt Levin explains what's going on there.

Speaker 34 So even if you've never bought Bitcoin and your eyes glaze over anytime someone starts talking about the blockchain, you should care about what federal agency regulates crypto, just like you probably should have cared who was regulating mortgage-backed securities and credit default swaps before the 2008 financial crisis.

Speaker 34 Chris Brummer is a professor at Georgetown Law.

Speaker 26 When things work well regulatorily, the entire economy does well. But when things don't work as well, and if you have bouts of financial instability, your life can be made harder as well.

Speaker 34 The total crypto market cap is now over $3 trillion globally, but there's still major debate over who should regulate it.

Speaker 34 Under the Biden administration, the Securities and Exchange Commission took the lead, regulating certain aspects of crypto, mostly by suing crypto companies.

Speaker 34 Summer Mersinger, head of the Blockchain Association and Industry Lobbying Group, says they need more than a piecemeal approach.

Speaker 35 Crypto is trying to interpret a bunch of different opinions across federal agencies,

Speaker 35 you know, the judicial system, and trying to find the regulatory paths.

Speaker 34 The industry wants most cryptocurrencies regulated by the Commodities Futures Exchange Commission, known as the CFTC, and not the SEC.

Speaker 34 It's complicated, but they basically argue because of crypto's decentralized nature, it's economically more like a barrel of oil or bushel of wheat than apple stock.

Speaker 34 Corey Frere at the Consumer Federation of America says there's an ulterior motive.

Speaker 26 The CFTC just isn't equipped by expertise, by staffing, by budgeting, to handle an enormous securities industry.

Speaker 34 About 700 people work for the CFTC. The SEC has about 5,000.
There are two proposals in the House and Senate. They'll have to pass both chambers before being sent to President Trump.

Speaker 34 I'm Matt Levin for Marketplace.

Speaker 12 We're going to do a little consumer check-in now.

Speaker 8 And the consumer is being checked in with are you?

Speaker 28 So,

Speaker 6 how are you doing?

Speaker 17 To judge by the consumer confidence index from the conference board this morning, maybe not so great.

Speaker 19 The index fell this month, just as it has fallen every month of this year, save May.

Speaker 27 Consumers are more downbeat both about the right now and about the future.

Speaker 18 Some of the reasons why are probably obvious if you read the headlines.

Speaker 28 Other reasons, though, maybe less obvious.

Speaker 7 Daniel Ackerman has that one.

Speaker 22 Tariffs, a new tax and spend bill, conflicts in the Middle East. It's all just a lot for consumers.
Says Tuan Nguyen, an economist at RSM.

Speaker 36 We are living in a period of elevated uncertainties, and uncertainty is the number one enemy of consumer confidence.

Speaker 22 But alongside this swirl of uncertainties that consumers can't do much about, they're also more and more worried about their jobs. Caleb Bruhn is lead economist at Morning Consult.

Speaker 37 The labor market has been seemingly doing this very long, prolonged, gradual kind of slowdown.

Speaker 22 The labor market is by no means in a bad place. There aren't widespread layoffs, but continuing jobless claims are near their highest in three years.
Bill Adams is chief economist at Comerica Bank.

Speaker 36 Consumers are seeing some more softness in the job market, fewer jobs available, and a harder time finding a new job.

Speaker 22 He says younger job seekers are having a particularly tough time, which could mean less willingness to make big discretionary purchases near term.

Speaker 36 We've seen some of that already in the May retail sales report, which was down on the month.

Speaker 22 There was some good news in the data. Kayla Bruhn of Morning Consult says consumers are less worried about rising prices.

Speaker 37 We have been getting cooler inflation ratings, and consumers do seem to be noticing that.

Speaker 22 Of course, the end of the 90-day pause on most tariffs could shift the mood again next month.

Speaker 22 And with everything happening so fast, Bruin says we got to read the fine print attached to these data sets. The conference board survey ran through June 18th.

Speaker 37 So it's not capturing the U.S.'s involvement in the Israel-Iran affair.

Speaker 22 Bruin says her group's more recent surveys show consumer confidence has kept sliding since then. I'm Daniel Ackerman for Marketplace.

Speaker 10 The woes of the American shopping mall have been much documented over the past decade or more.

Speaker 15 From the death of the big boxes like Sears and JCPenney to our new shopping habits inspired by the pandemic, there are less than a thousand malls left in this economy, and that's down from 1,200 a decade ago.

Speaker 14 It's not all doom and gloom, though.

Speaker 17 As Laura Hackett reports now from Blue Ridge Public Radio, communities Communities are finding creative ways to fill the vacancies left by those disappeared anchor stores.

Speaker 39 Inside of an old Charlotte Roost store, a pack of 10-year-olds are learning how to wrestle in the Asheville Mall.

Speaker 39 While shoppers stroll by, these kids are doing bear crawls and push-ups on a big comb mat.

Speaker 39 This used to be a popular fast fashion stop.

Speaker 39 Now it's the headquarters of Mountain Peak Athletic Center, a boxing and wrestling gym, where spectators can grab a $5 beer from the fridge fridge and hang out by the ring.

Speaker 39 Owner John Jastrebski says the former retail space is a perfect fit and price for his growing business.

Speaker 41 It was a long time that it was vacant, so I'm assuming since we were asking to rent it, they were willing to negotiate whatever they can get because they were getting zero.

Speaker 39 As many retail chains shutter brick-and-mortar sites, malls are pivoting to include more local flair.

Speaker 41 It seems that the mall is willing to work with local businesses to bring something a little bit different than things you can get at Amazon.

Speaker 39 In Asheville, that means a tattoo parlor, a food bank, and even a wedding venue. Brad to be autumn Davis will get hitched here this summer.

Speaker 42 It's fancy. I mean, this is a full-blown wedding.
We just happen to be in the center of a mall. They're going to have their own entrance in the back.

Speaker 42 It's going to be lining in lights and lace and chauffeurs walking people in.

Speaker 39 There's also an artist collective. They call themselves the Mall Rats.

Speaker 43 We're looking at the mall as a canvas and what can we put in it.

Speaker 39 Eric Mace is a leader of the group and this summer they hung a fish sculpture, an artistically bent gardening hoe, and other whimsical creations in an empty hallway outside of the closed JCPenney.

Speaker 43 There's a lot of discussion about how malls in their original heyday, like they were community centers.

Speaker 44 I think it's just that perfect time

Speaker 43 to start to talk about, well, what else could a mall be?

Speaker 39 Portland, Oregon, is trying to answer that question too.

Speaker 39 Locals sometimes call the Lloyd Center a, quote, dead mall, but it has an artist collective too, coincidentally, also called the Mall Rats, led by Nathan McKee.

Speaker 45 You know, it's anything from people who screen print their own t-shirts to letterpress cards to zines, ceramicists. It's all over the board.

Speaker 39 He says the artists group wants to get people off social media to gather and create in person.

Speaker 45 You know, when you're like online all the time, it can mess with your psyche. You know, like once you're like focused only on on likes and how many people, you know, tap the screen.

Speaker 39 He says people have fond memories at the Lloyd Center.

Speaker 45 Whether you were a mall rat or not, you have this like wave of nostalgia of just the sound of it and the look of it and the escalators and the elevators and the ice ring.

Speaker 39 But sometimes nostalgia is not enough to keep a mall alive. In the U.S., between 10 to 20 malls shut down every year.

Speaker 39 And that's why some communities are rethinking these spaces in a big way to reimagine the property entirely.

Speaker 46 The biggest surprise for me is that never once would I have ever imagined that the mall would turn into a school.

Speaker 39 Trevor Ivey now runs an elementary school in an old Macy's in Sumter, South Carolina. He says as a teenager, he would often come to the mall for corn dogs and arcade games.

Speaker 46 I'm born and raised in this community. The mall used to be the place to go.

Speaker 39 Decades later, it's still a place to go, just for kindergartners figuring out what school is or seven-year-olds learning to read.

Speaker 46 I think at the heart of our project is this idea of community revitalization.

Speaker 39 And that means the mall is still relevant, but just in a different way.

Speaker 39 In Asheville, North Carolina, I'm Laura Hackett for Marketplace.

Speaker 7 Coming up.

Speaker 47 It's become, for lack of a better word, a trend to to want to speak at Harvard Business School.

Speaker 12 A little trend analysis straight ahead, but first, let's do the numbers.

Speaker 38 Yeah, here you go.

Speaker 27 The really happy music because everything's fine.

Speaker 19 Dow Industrials ascended 507 points today, 1.2%, 43,089.

Speaker 19 NASDAQ jumped 281 points, about 1.4%, finished at 19,912.

Speaker 18 The SP 500 packed on 67 points, 1.1%,

Speaker 10 6,092.

Speaker 16 Sabri was talking about shipping rates.

Speaker 12 So, some global shippers.

Speaker 2 Mattson down 7 tenths percent.

Speaker 19 Maersk dropped 1.7% today.

Speaker 38 Oil down, airlines up. That's the paradigm.

Speaker 19 Delta rose 2.7% today. American grew 4.3%.

Speaker 12 JetBlue up 4.1%.

Speaker 8 Oil companies, you asked.

Speaker 15 ExxonMobil down 3%.

Speaker 19 Chevron declined 2.2% today.

Speaker 8 Defense contractors.

Speaker 15 Well, they fell after that feeling settled in that the Iran-Israel conflict might not drag out.

Speaker 8 Northrop Grumman down 3.2% today, Lockheed Martin down 2.6%, RTX, once upon a time, Raytheon down 2.7% on the day.

Speaker 15 Bonds up yield on the 10-year T2 at 4.29er%.

Speaker 7 You're listening to Marketplace.

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Speaker 18 This is Marketplace.

Speaker 10 I'm Kai Rizdahl.

Speaker 32 While the labor market here is, as of now, holding firm, that is not necessarily true in the rest of the global economy.

Speaker 15 China, in particular, young workers there to get even more granular.

Speaker 19 The unemployment rate in China for 16 to 24-year-olds was almost 15% last month.

Speaker 9 The obligatory note here is a grain of salt with that.

Speaker 14 The real number could well be higher.

Speaker 15 But whatever the data, with more than 12 million brand new college graduates entering the Chinese workforce this month, there's a lot of competition for the jobs that there are.

Speaker 18 Our China correspondent Jennifer Peck talked to some would-be workers.

Speaker 40 I'm checking out a job fair at Shanghai's Donghua University, which has 50 firms looking to fill just under 900 openings.

Speaker 40 It's a tiny job fair by China's standards, but Donghua ranks among the top 100 Chinese universities, which means its graduates have a leg up in the job hunt, in theory.

Speaker 40 In practice, going to a top school is not enough, says supply chain management grad Gao Sheng Chi.

Speaker 50 I've been looking for jobs for about a month, and most of them are not suitable. There were many jobs I thought I could do, but the employers said no.

Speaker 50 And the jobs where the employers wanted me, I didn't want because the jobs weren't that good.

Speaker 40 Not good because the pay he's hoping to make is at least $11,000 a year, but the offers were 20% less.

Speaker 50 That would make it hard for me to have a life in Shanghai.

Speaker 40 Just outside the job fair, I meet Miao Jia Hao, who has a master's degree in law. Like many graduates in China, he began job hunting early last fall.

Speaker 31 I've applied for over a thousand jobs. There were not many replies, just a dozen or so.

Speaker 31 I've had two job offers, both unrelated to law.

Speaker 40 But he really wants to work in his field. The biggest hurdle, he says,

Speaker 31 there are too many law graduates and not enough suitable jobs.

Speaker 40 Then he excuses himself because he has an interview. He goes off to a quiet corner to take the video call on speakerphone.

Speaker 40 It's a group interview, which is common in China when there are many applicants.

Speaker 40 The interviewer gives each applicant 90 seconds to introduce themselves in front of the whole group. Talk about pressure.

Speaker 40 Candidates here are all well aware of the high youth unemployment. That's why Arts Theory major Huang Yenhan is trying to get a head start.

Speaker 40 She's not graduating till next year, but she's poking around the job fair.

Speaker 51 I'm worried because the job market is overall not good. Plus, I'm majoring in liberal arts, so some employers will have higher requirements for us.

Speaker 40 Higher because many employers in China have a bias that liberal arts graduates have few practical skills. A college degree used to give applicants a competitive edge, but that's no longer the case.

Speaker 40 Here's Kao Sheng Qi again, the applicant who holds a bachelor's degree in supply chain management.

Speaker 50 I've walked around the whole job fair, and employers have really high requirements. Some jobs need a master's degree or higher.

Speaker 40 The positions are in fashion, real estate, the automotive sector.

Speaker 50 You want the truth? A master's degree is not necessary for a lot of these advertised jobs.

Speaker 40 From his perspective, even a technical degree would be more than enough. In Shanghai, I'm Jennifer Pack for Marketplace.

Speaker 18 Here's a not entirely hypothetical question.

Speaker 16 What do reality TV stars, TikTok influencers, and Grammy-winning musicians have in common?

Speaker 11 If you said an invitation to speak at Harvard Business School, you go straight to the head of the class.

Speaker 38 The real mystery here, though, is why do all those people want to make the trek to Cambridge?

Speaker 18 Rory Sachin wrote about it in the Wall Street Journal the other day.

Speaker 6 Welcome to the program.

Speaker 47 Thanks for having me.

Speaker 10 So before the Harvard Business School became an influencer pipeline, who was the average speaker?

Speaker 47 The average speaker was your standard CEO.

Speaker 47 So someone from HSBC, someone from the major consulting companies, kind of had attended an Ivy League school themselves, potentially business school themselves, but pretty dry.

Speaker 18 Without, yeah, I was just going to say, without casting a Spurgeon is kind of a snoozer, right?

Speaker 47 Exactly.

Speaker 6 Okay. Without casting a Spurgeon.

Speaker 7 Right.

Speaker 10 Well, I will now no longer be getting an invitation to Harvard Business School.

Speaker 5 Now, tell me about the influencers that are so eager to go to this stodgy old business school and do their thing.

Speaker 47 So it's become, for lack of a better word, a trend to want to speak at Harvard Business School.

Speaker 47 Some say that it harks back to Kim Kardashian, who spoke at the school in 2023.

Speaker 47 And she posted a selfie with the Harvard Business School sign, which went pretty viral.

Speaker 47 Since then, the school has been pretty much inundated with requests from influencers, but also more high-profile celebrities.

Speaker 47 So in recent months, we've had Phineas, Billie Eilish's brother, speak there, Marcelo Hernandez from Saturday Night Live, Alex Earle, the influencer. So it's become a really hot ticket.

Speaker 7 Okay, but why?

Speaker 17 What do the influencers who are kind of by definition, they've already got a reputation and huge audiences, what do they get out of going to Harvard?

Speaker 47 It's become a badge of honor.

Speaker 47 And aside from the branding opportunity of taking a selfie with the sign, I think it conveys a certain legitimacy the same way that being on a panel or appearing on a television show was once kind of a badge of legitimacy.

Speaker 47 Now speaking at Harvard is the latest one.

Speaker 7 And Harvard, of course, much in the news of late for something not at all related to this, but the Harvard Business School gets, you know, a profile boost out of this, right?

Speaker 33 When Phineas or Kim Kardashian come to speak, right?

Speaker 47 Exactly. They're not doing it for this reason, but it's great PR for the school.

Speaker 10 One does wonder how Yale or Wharton or the Stern School at NYU or Stanford, right?

Speaker 7 How do they feel about all this?

Speaker 47 I know. I dug into that a little bit to see if this was also a thing at Stern, also a thing at Stanford, and turns out not so much.
So it's a very Harvard brand-specific phenomenon.

Speaker 2 The Harvard Business School, I don't know what the tuition is, but it is certainly not cheap.

Speaker 32 If I'm an MBA student, other than the visceral thrill of seeing Alex Earle or Phineas or Billy or whatever,

Speaker 16 I mean, do I get something out of this?

Speaker 47 The students, for the most part, seem really excited about the phenomenon.

Speaker 47 And a lot of the students I spoke to say that they like seeing someone with an unorthodox, non-traditional background because it kind of mirrors what's happening in the Zeitgeist and in the business world today.

Speaker 14 Also, and this is kind of relevant, a lot of these influencers now run actual businesses. It's not just being an influencer, it's the businesses that they run.

Speaker 47 Right. So taking into account Alex Earle's perspective on business.

Speaker 18 You probably should tell people who Alex Earle is.

Speaker 47 So Alex Earle is, I would say, one of the top influencers of the moment, but she also runs a beverage soda company that she launched. Poppy was just sold to PepsiCo for over a billion dollars.

Speaker 47 So paying attention to influencers' business empires is actually savvy. It's not silly.

Speaker 15 Right.

Speaker 15 So look, we've established that I am no longer going to be invited to the Harvard Business School.

Speaker 7 What about you? Have they called you yet since you did this piece?

Speaker 47 I would have to run it by the standards and ethics board, but yes, I have been a pro.

Speaker 6 There you go.

Speaker 6 Well, we shall see.

Speaker 47 She opened it up to the common folk.

Speaker 14 There we go.

Speaker 10 Rory Satron at the Wall Street Journal. Rory, thanks a bunch.
I appreciate your time.

Speaker 47 Thanks for having me.

Speaker 18 This final note on the way out today, a housing market data point.

Speaker 18 The Kay-Schiller Home Price Index was out today, and how you're feeling about it kind of depends on which side of the transaction you are on.

Speaker 33 Nationwide, home prices were up 2.7% in April.

Speaker 23 That is an annual increase.

Speaker 18 Obviously, that's for the sellers out there.

Speaker 28 For the buyers among you, that was the slowest rate of growth in almost two years.

Speaker 16 So you take your selling that's where you can get it, I suppose.

Speaker 7 Our digital and on-demand team includes Jordan Manji, Dylan Mietenen, Janet Wynn, Olga Oxman, Virginia K.

Speaker 27 Smith, and Tony Wagner.

Speaker 9 Francesca Levy is the executive director of Digital and On Demand.

Speaker 38 And I'm Kyle Risdall. We will see you tomorrow, everybody.

Speaker 7 This is APM.

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