No, the Fed should not stop paying interest on reserves

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Speaker 2 This is the time to get a new Honda with clearance savings. Search your local Honda dealer today.

Speaker 3 Base out 2025 Consumer Choice Awards from Kelly Blue Book. Visit kbb.com for more information.

Speaker 1 Once again, how people are feeling about this economy is pretty much everything.

Speaker 1 From American Public Media, this is Marketplace.

Speaker 1 In Los Angeles, I'm Connor Risdahl. It is Thursday today, the 12th of June.
Good as always to have you along, everybody.

Speaker 1 There's a bunch of data points I could rattle off to get us going. Wholesale inflation is fine.
Continuing claims for unemployment benefits are up. The dollar is getting whacked.

Speaker 1 But we're going to go instead with one of our standbys, the reality that all the data in the world doesn't matter until you know how people are feeling in their economic day-to-day.

Speaker 1 Marketplace's Kristen Schwab has a series she's been doing for us. It's called Lived Economies, How People from All Over This Country Are Living and Spending and How They Are Feeling About It.

Speaker 1 Here she is with today's installment.

Speaker 5 Long Island is the birthplace of suburban America, and you can still sort of feel that when you drive around here in Farmingdale: vinyl-sided houses, freshly cut lawns, and American flags.

Speaker 5 Bill Thompson looks over at his neighbors.

Speaker 11 You look down the block here, and everybody that owns a house has a union affiliation, okay?

Speaker 11 This guy over here, Joe, he was Verizon. He gestures down the street: electrician, police officer, truck driver,

Speaker 11 the Long Island Railroad.

Speaker 9 Lots of blue-collar jobs.

Speaker 8 That includes Bill, who is a sheet metal worker, mostly installing ductwork.

Speaker 9 His wife Catherine was a nurse.

Speaker 8 She taught nursing as well.

Speaker 12 Good, steady careers that have led to a comfortable retirement. Between pensions and Social Security, their income is about $150,000.

Speaker 8 And that's without tapping into other retirement and savings accounts much.

Speaker 10 In retirement, Catherine volunteers 10 hours a week for AARP.

Speaker 6 She loves to garden.

Speaker 14 So the clematis is just blooming up top there, the purple flowers just opened up. That's today.

Speaker 5 Bill is into woodworking.

Speaker 8 We're in the living room staring at what is very much, and I cannot overstate this, a full-size, fully operational grandfather clock. Bill built it from scratch out of cherry wood.

Speaker 7 The two can enjoy their hobbies without really thinking about how much things cost.

Speaker 14 I think that's kind kind of one of the nice things about financially where we are is that we don't really have to worry. You just buy it to be able to do what you want with it.

Speaker 14 You know, even the traveling and everything, they just book the tickets.

Speaker 12 In the last handful of years, they've been to Alaska, Hawaii, Seattle, and Paris.

Speaker 6 Between vacations and visiting family in New Mexico, they spend about $20,000 on travel a year.

Speaker 11 We really are not super big spenders, but we don't have a budget either. It's really a very good life that we have.

Speaker 8 At 69 years old, Catherine and Bill are in the demographic that has helped prop up the economy despite the pandemic and inflation.

Speaker 12 In the last five years, people over 60 have increased their spending more than other age groups, possibly because their wealth has been buoyed by stock market gains and rising home values, and older Americans are often less impacted by interest rates.

Speaker 9 Catherine and Bill feel really lucky because they think they're the last generation to live a prosperous blue-collar life.

Speaker 6 That's become especially apparent to them watching their two sons who are in their 30s.

Speaker 11 I am very concerned about

Speaker 11 my son and his wife.

Speaker 13 The son that lives nearby on Long Island, his job doesn't offer health insurance.

Speaker 6 Their other son and his wife live in New Mexico.

Speaker 14 They have two kids and one has serious disabilities.

Speaker 11 She's going to have to have help from other parts of society.

Speaker 11 I don't feel good about your prospects for the future.

Speaker 7 It takes me a second to realize Bill is literally talking about me.

Speaker 8 I'm around the same age as his sons.

Speaker 5 It's his way of saying they are not worried about their economy.

Speaker 12 They're worried about the economy with a capital E.

Speaker 12 They talk about the state of healthcare, threats to social security, and tax cuts for the super wealthy, and how one of the only ways to get ahead these days is wealth that's passed from one generation to the next.

Speaker 6 Bill and Catherine spent something like 300K putting their kids through college.

Speaker 5 They helped one of their sons buy his house, which needed a total renovation.

Speaker 14 What we see now with these kids, and it's not just our kids, we're working, you know, we have, of course, a lot of nieces and nephews on both of our sides.

Speaker 14 They're renting an apartment for, you know, $2,600 a month, even with a good job.

Speaker 9 How do you save?

Speaker 5 Save to buy a house or put your kids through school or enjoy building grandfather clocks in retirement.

Speaker 8 They say it's hard to imagine their sons getting to where they are today without a little help.

Speaker 8 In Farmingdale, New York, I'm Kristen Schwab for Marketplace.

Speaker 1 About 30 miles west of Farmingdale, as the crow flies, right at the corner of Wall Street and Broad and Lower Manhattan, traders were mostly happy. Today we'll have the details when we do the numbers.

Speaker 1 I mentioned a data point from Challenger Gray and Christmas on the program yesterday the number of government workers who've been dismissed in one fashion or another since the beginning of the Trump administration.

Speaker 1 285,000 people put out of work, the earliest batch of which, and one of the biggest certainly, was virtually the entire workforce at the U.S. Agency for International Development, USAID.

Speaker 1 And along with the people getting cut, so too were USAID contracts, north of 90% of them.

Speaker 1 Among the many organizations that counted on that money to do what they do is Save the Children, which works across the country and internationally on child health and development.

Speaker 1 Yanti Shorepto is the president and CEO of Save the Children U.S. Welcome back to the program.

Speaker 18 Thank you for having me back.

Speaker 1 How much has your life changed since the funding freezes, the dismantling of USAID, and all the rest of it?

Speaker 18 Oh, just a little.

Speaker 18 Look, it's been an, I would say, an industry-wide upheaval. We had expected some change with an incoming administration.
That is not unheard of. We see it here.
We see it in other countries.

Speaker 18 But I spoke to a lot of people in this sector, inside DC, about this. No one had expected this level of disruption so brutally quickly, but also to this extent.

Speaker 1 Well, wait,

Speaker 1 sorry, go back to those conversations you say you've been having inside Washington. What do they tell you, the people you've been talking to in the administration, about the reasons and the logic?

Speaker 18 Well, it's been really chaotic. Let me be clear.
It was hard to find people who actually were there because, of course, at the same time that funding was stopped,

Speaker 18 people were also let go, right, and dismantled. So it was very hard to find people who were actually still there, who were able to give us answers.

Speaker 18 So that's why a lot of the uncertainty and the not understanding of us and many of our peer organizations who were in the same boat happened.

Speaker 18 We had programs terminated, which were then un-terminated, if you like. So one day we were told stop it, the next day it was, no, no, no, you can actually continue.

Speaker 18 And then the next day, it was re-terminated again.

Speaker 18 So it was in the middle of trying to deal with which programs must we keep alive, where we must find alternative sources, or we bridge a gap with our private funding that we're lucky enough to have,

Speaker 18 that choice making had to happen.

Speaker 18 At the same time, we were trying to figure out in real time, are we going to get paid for work done previously, and which programs are now actually either terminated or are they exempted?

Speaker 18 So it's been, yeah, it has been an interesting exercise in spinning plates.

Speaker 1 Well, so on that topic, you know, your job as president and CEO is strategy and growing your organization and serving more people.

Speaker 1 How much of your time now are you spending spinning the plates as opposed to doing what your actual job description and I imagine the Board of Directors wants you to do?

Speaker 18 Well, the Board of Directors definitely wanted me to address this crisis, as you can imagine.

Speaker 18 Fair point. First and foremost, yes.
Of course, in the first few weeks, it was crisis management. It was responding to whatever was coming at us.

Speaker 18 Now, I think we're getting to a place where we're still responding, because it's still not clear for some of the programmes that were not terminated whether they're going to remain, but so there's still a bit of response going on, but we are also in a rebound phase, right?

Speaker 18 We have made significant cuts to our organisation, as you can imagine.

Speaker 18 We let go of thirty eight percent of staff in the US, we have let go of between twenty five and thirty percent of people globally, right, mostly in the countries where the work happens, right?

Speaker 18 So the dust is settling on on those terminated roles, we're reorganising ourselves to make sure that our teams still make sense, and we have identified which are the most critical sort of life saving interventions that, no matter whether US government funding is going to continue, we would have to find new funding mechanisms and sources for.

Speaker 18 So this is the rebound phase, and then we'll get to reform, where I'm actually quite excited because, look, this whole crisis, I don't like how it's gone down, I abhor the way way in which this was done and the impact this has had on the world's most vulnerable children.

Speaker 18 But given that we are where we are, we also have to radically accept that this is what we now have. And can we use the moment to really step into some of the opportunities it gives us?

Speaker 1 Aaron Powell, well, so let's talk about the opportunities and what that reform that you mentioned might look like, because clearly you can't keep doing what you were doing six months ago.

Speaker 18 No, absolutely true. And we knew this industry wasn't perfect, right? We knew there were Byzantine structures, a lot of administrative bureaucracy, unnecessary layers.

Speaker 18 What this industry really lacks, of course, is market signaling. In the private sector, if you deliver a product that doesn't work for consumers, they're going to walk away from you.

Speaker 18 And you know it very quickly, whether you have a hit or a miss. And then you have to adapt, right? And there are financial incentives to do consolidation in the industry.

Speaker 18 Mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures.

Speaker 1 Your corporate background is showing itself here. It's fascinating, actually.

Speaker 18 Well, it is interesting that I always thought in the corporate sector there were a lot of those deals done. And by the way, not all of them are successful, let's also be clear.

Speaker 18 But in this sector, I found the spirit of collaboration to be unbelievable. It's genuine, it's authentic.

Speaker 18 I've seen it in areas of conflict where organizations really try to help one another without trying to get anything back for it.

Speaker 18 But interestingly, that spirit and that culture hasn't translated into distribution deals or joint ventures or other types of strategic partnerships that would really create value because the financial incentives just weren't there.

Speaker 18 And hence, the muscle and the capability hasn't been built in that way.

Speaker 1 I hear you despite everything being somewhat hopeful.

Speaker 18 I am. We have to take this opportunity.
If we don't do it now, then it would really be on us, right?

Speaker 18 We can't control how governments look at development assistance or international assistance, but we can very much control how we as an organization and even as an industry do better in terms of our efficiency, using each other's strengths and assets more deliberately, and also

Speaker 18 be more tight in our priorities, something that businesses I think have always been better at. And for us, it's hard.

Speaker 18 When you advocate for children's rights, it's very tempting to think you can solve everything for all children.

Speaker 18 And I think this crisis is prompting, nay, I think, forcing us to be more precise and to be also more humble and say, these are the bits that we're really good at, we're going to continue to drive hard for it, and these are some areas where we're going to leave it to others.

Speaker 1 Yanti Serupto. She's the president, the CEO also of Save the Children U.S.
Yanti, thanks for your time. It's good to talk to you again.

Speaker 18 Thank you, Kai. Good to speak.

Speaker 1 As Republicans in Congress, the Senate specifically, scramble for ways to make the President's big tax cut bill add a little bit less than $2.4 trillion to the national debt as it's now written, one of the ideas being floated is to have the Federal Reserve stop paying interest.

Speaker 1 One of the things the central bank does is act like a a bank for banks. It's complicated.
Sabri is going to explain in a minute.

Speaker 1 But much like a commercial bank, the Fed pays interest on its clients' deposits, clients being big banks, those deposits being called reserves at the Fed.

Speaker 1 Anyway, Senator Ted Cruz, Republican of Texas, says not doing that could save over a trillion dollars over 10 years.

Speaker 1 Sabri is going to explain what would actually happen.

Speaker 15 The Federal Reserve pays interest to banks on their reserves for one big reason.

Speaker 20 To move up or down interest rates in the economy.

Speaker 15 Seth Carpenter is Morgan Stanley's global chief economist. No bank in its right mind is going to make a loan to anybody for less interest than it's getting from the Fed.

Speaker 20 It's a question of at what rate banks have an incentive to lend money.

Speaker 15 The Fed controls interest rates as best it can because that's how it fights inflation and keeps people employed. So what would banks do if the Fed just stopped paying them interest?

Speaker 19 They would try to shift shift their short-term assets out of reserves and into other short-term things.

Speaker 15 Bill English is a professor of finance at Yale. Banks would say, get my money out of this zero-interest hellscape.
Let's put it into something else like treasuries.

Speaker 19 And by doing so, they would be bidding very aggressively at, say, auctions of treasury bills. They'd be pushing down the interest rate on treasury bills.

Speaker 19 Banks would pile into that asset until its return fell to something like zero.

Speaker 15 So like a school of piranhas, banks would pick interest rates down to the bone. That would keep rates for the rest of the economy far below what the Fed considers healthy.

Speaker 15 In reality, the Fed would not let that happen, says English. It has other ways of paying interest to banks and other financial institutions, and it would have to use them to control rates.

Speaker 21 But wouldn't even reduce the interest expense of the Federal Reserve.

Speaker 15 James Klaus is a fellow at the Anderson Institute. The Fed doesn't directly use tax revenue to pay interest.
It uses profits from all the treasuries and other investments it has.

Speaker 15 But maintaining control over interest rates would involve selling many of those investments.

Speaker 21 So if you reduce the size of the balance sheet, you're also reducing the net income of the Federal Reserve on average over time.

Speaker 15 That's less profit to share with the government. So Klaus says ending interest payments on bank reserves wouldn't end up saving much, if any money at all in the end.

Speaker 4 In New York, I'm Sabri Benishore for Marketplace.

Speaker 1 Coming up.

Speaker 16 And like we literally just sit and we watched it, you know, as the tree fell through the house.

Speaker 1 Storm season has arrived. First, though, let's do the numbers.
Dow Industrial is up 101 points, about a quarter percent, 42,967. The NASDAQ gained 46 points, also a quarter percent, 19,662.

Speaker 1 The SP 500 picked up 23 points, 4 tenths percent, 6,045. Boeing down 4.3 quarters percent today on the news out of India.

Speaker 1 Oracle shares up 13 and a third percent after the company raised its annual revenue growth forecast based on growing demand for its cloud business from companies using artificial intelligence.

Speaker 1 Some oil company stocks dipped after the U.S. announced it was moving personnel from the Middle East ahead of tense talks with Iran over that country's nuclear program.
Valero down 4 tenths percent.

Speaker 1 Halliburton fell almost 1%.

Speaker 1 You're listening to Marketplace.

Speaker 2 The year-end clearance sale is going on now at your local Honda dealer. Honda cars, SUVs, and trucks are on clearance during happy Honda Days.

Speaker 2 Get 2025 accords, pilots, and ridge lines on clearance with big savings on the full Honda line. Gas, hybrids, and EVs.
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Speaker 2 This is the time to get a new Honda with clearance savings. Search your local Honda dealer today.

Speaker 3 Base of 2025 Consumer Choice Awards from Kelly Blue Book. Visit visitab.com for more information.

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Speaker 1 These Doritos Golden Sriracha aren't that spicy.

Speaker 11 Sriracha?

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Speaker 1 Um, a little spicy, but also tangy and sweet.

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Speaker 1 This is Marketplace. I'm Kai Rizdahl.
If you're hankering for more artificial intelligence in your daily commerce, Amazon's got you.

Speaker 1 The company, which we should say advertises with us, is launching an AI video ad generator for sellers here in the United States.

Speaker 1 One click, it'll turn a still image of any product into a customized video showing said item in action, the latest big tech move to push farther into the business of generating ads, not just selling them.

Speaker 1 Marketplace's Megan McCarty-Carino has that one.

Speaker 17 Amazon has had an AI image generation tool for ads for a couple years now. You know, when you're shopping for a watch and see suspiciously similar photos of it superimposed on different backgrounds.

Speaker 17 The new video tool kicks that up a few notches, says Kabir Beatty, the head of product for generative AI at Amazon Ads.

Speaker 24 You want someone wearing the watch. You want to show how a human sees the time by, you know, moving their wrist with the watch.

Speaker 17 All set to music with animated text pulled from product descriptions and reviews.

Speaker 24 We, through this tool, want to lower the barrier of entry, and that's exactly what's happening.

Speaker 17 Meta is doing something similar, and Netflix has teased using generative AI to tailor ads to the worlds of its shows.

Speaker 20 Computer automation is eating digital marketing.

Speaker 17 Garrett Johnson is a professor of marketing at Boston University. He says AI could improve ad targeting.

Speaker 20 It's very easy to have, instead of just one message to consumers, to have a pool of 10 messages and for the AI to find the consumer that's best matched to that.

Speaker 17 Northeastern professor Kuhn Powles, who worked with Amazon Ads, says he's less worried about the melting faces and extra fingers that often showed up in early AI videos and more about them becoming forgettable.

Speaker 25 In the beginning, it may seem very cool and insufficient, and it can also sometimes even be more creative, but the danger is that things will look all the same.

Speaker 17 Though he says that can be a problem with human-made ads, too. I'm Megan McCarty-Carino for Marketplace.

Speaker 1 We're just a hair shy of two weeks into Atlantic hurricane season, quite possibly the last one for the federal agency that helps communities recover from natural disasters.

Speaker 1 President Trump says he's going to get rid of the federal emergency management agency and let state and local governments and nonprofits handle things.

Speaker 1 Marketplace's Amy Scott from our climate podcast, How We Survive, spent some time with an organization in Houston, Texas to see how that might go.

Speaker 26 Gwendolyn Como stands at the end of her driveway in a black WWE t-shirt and matching shoes.

Speaker 26 She's a wrestling fan, but right now she's watching a different kind of spectacle, the gut renovation of her little beige house.

Speaker 27 They're putting up a roof and they're trying to do the kitchen and one of the back rooms. Back there, that was damaged also.

Speaker 28 Como has lived in this home in Northeast Houston's Huntington Place neighborhood for decades.

Speaker 28 That is, until May of last year, when a derecho, basically a straight-line windstorm, tore through Houston, causing more than a billion dollars in damage in the region and toppling the pecan tree in Como's neighbor's yard.

Speaker 27 The big old tree over here next door is just, I guess when that wind had came, it just lapped over to the fence and to the

Speaker 27 garage and stuff. It damaged kitchen and mostly everything else so wow were you home when it happened? Yes, ma'am.
I was there.

Speaker 9 Oh my goodness.

Speaker 27 Me and my son, we was in the no, we was in the living room.

Speaker 16 The wind was blowing at probably about a hundred miles per hour.

Speaker 28 That's Gwendolyn's son, Kevin Como, who lived with her at the time.

Speaker 16 And like we literally just sit and we watched it, you know, as the tree fell through the house. I heard the noise.
It was like a real loud thump, like a, you know, thundering noise.

Speaker 16 And when I walked back into the kitchen, all I could see was a tree laying into the house.

Speaker 28 I came to meet the Comos for a first-hand look at how the changing climate is affecting Texans.

Speaker 28 Because while Texas is this country's top producer of crude oil and natural gas, it's also prone to the kinds of disasters climate scientists say are getting worse because of emissions from burning fossil fuels.

Speaker 28 And while it's difficult to attribute any one storm to global warming, studies show it has created the conditions for more frequent and intense extreme weather.

Speaker 28 After last year's derecho, FEMA put Kevin Como up in a hotel and Gwendolyn went to stay with her sister.

Speaker 28 Because they had no insurance and FEMA assistance wouldn't cover the full cost of repairs, they couldn't afford to fix the house.

Speaker 16 The estimates that I received was almost like I should just tear the house down and just rebuild. I was just like, there's just no way.

Speaker 28 So Kevin had to get creative. He looked around and finally linked up with a grassroots organization in Houston called West Street Recovery.

Speaker 28 The group was formed during Hurricane Harvey eight years ago by neighbors rescuing neighbors from the floods. Andrew Barley is now the group's co-director of home repair.

Speaker 29 Most of my community members that I serve call me by my last name, Barley.

Speaker 28 Barley started out with West Street doing water rescues during Harvey and then learned how to build.

Speaker 28 Since then, the group has repaired around 350 houses damaged by major storms in historically disadvantaged communities. Barley is overseeing the renovation of the Comos house.

Speaker 28 He estimates it'll cost about $65,000. And they're doing more than just repairing the damage.
They're future-proofing it.

Speaker 29 For example, there's PVC piping underneath the house right now. We're going to switch all of this out with what's called PEX-A-style plumbing.

Speaker 29 It's made out of a plastic-like material that'll expand when it freezes.

Speaker 28 As a lot of Texans experience during Winterstorm Uri, which caused widespread damage in 2021, the group sees itself as a stopgap to help communities that have struggled through neglect or overt racism.

Speaker 29 And part of the ways we do that is by ensuring that we preserve what there is of community by preserving the housing housing stock that are in neighborhoods like this.

Speaker 29 The best way to do that is to upgrade all the materials we can as we work on the house.

Speaker 28 West Street has also set up eight so-called hub houses around the city where residents can take shelter during storms or heat waves and access emergency supplies.

Speaker 28 Now, the group says cuts to federal funding will create a crisis in disaster recovery that nonprofits just don't have the resources to replace.

Speaker 15 But, you know, we carry on.

Speaker 29 We still have to do the work. And

Speaker 29 we still have to, the folks who live out here still have to make deal regardless of what happens or what the government says or does.

Speaker 28 That self-reliance will be tested again by the next storm.

Speaker 28 In Houston, I'm Amy Scott for Marketplace.

Speaker 1 You can hear more from Amy's reporting from Texas in the latest season of How We Survive.

Speaker 1 It's available wherever you get your podcast, marketplace.org, platform of your choice. Just follow us there.

Speaker 1 This final note on the way out today, I'm going to dip my toe back into the bond market real quick, following up on Sabri's story the other day about the U.S.

Speaker 1 30-year bond, the long bond, and why it matters for what the government's going to have to pay to borrow all those extra trillions of dollars in the GOP's tax bill. Treasury held an auction today.

Speaker 1 4.844%

Speaker 1 was the yield at sale for those 30-year notes. It's high, but it's good because it was below where people had been guessing it would be.
Trillions of dollars at that rate.

Speaker 1 John Gordon, Noya Carmen, Petra, and Stephanie Seeker are the marketplace editing staff. Amir Bibawi is the managing editor.
And I'm Kylie Rizdahl. We will see you tomorrow, everybody.

Speaker 1 This is APM.

Speaker 2 The year-in clearance sale is going on now at your local Honda Honda dealer. Honda cars, SUVs, and trucks are on clearance during happy Honda Days.

Speaker 2 Get 2025 accords, pilots, and ridgelines on clearance with big savings on the full Honda line. Gas, hybrids, and EVs.
All new Hondas are in stock. Honda, kbb.com's best value and performance brand.

Speaker 2 This is the time to get a new Honda with clearance savings. Search your local Honda dealer today.

Speaker 3 Base of 2025 Consumer Choice Awards from Kelly Bluebook. Visit kbb.com for more information.