Will homebuyers spring at lower rates?

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Speaker 2 It's only been five days in this economy, right?

Speaker 2 Because it sure feels like longer.

Speaker 2 From American public media, this is Marketplace.

Speaker 2 In Los Angeles, I'm Kyle Risnall. It is Friday, today, the 14th of March.
Good as always, to have you along, everybody. I think it's fair to say the economic weeks are all starting to run together.

Speaker 2 Can't really tell one from t'other, but by golly, we are going to try. David Gross at Bloomberg, Anna Swanson is at the New York Times.
Hey, two. Hey, Kai.

Speaker 2 David, remind us where you are.

Speaker 5 I am in Charlevoix, Quebec, which is where the G7 foreign ministers were meeting this week. So I'm about two hours north of Quebec City on the St.

Speaker 2 Lawrence Seaway. Give us the global economic vibe, would you vis-a-vis these United States?

Speaker 5 Total stupefaction at what's happening here, mixed with outrage and bewilderment.

Speaker 5 You know, tariffs and trade policy were not on the official agenda for this meeting. A lot of focus on Russia, Ukraine, the Middle East, but this was the backdrop.

Speaker 5 And everyone was just kind of looking at their feet, wondering how the geopolitical terrain had shifted and changed so much.

Speaker 5 And also looking at the United States, this long-standing ally of all of these countries, obviously a member of this multilateral alliance, and just wondering what's caused this, why is it happening?

Speaker 5 And what's going to happen next? How much is this going to continue ratcheting up?

Speaker 2 Yeah, I laughed when you said stupefaction because that's really the only word I can think of.

Speaker 2 Anna Swanson, the question is, of course, with that as the backdrop, President Trump is playing a global game of chicken with the American economy as sort of the all-in stakes.

Speaker 2 And I guess my question to you is: he keeps saying, I'm not going to change my mind, no exclusions, no nothing. And the question is, really?

Speaker 6 Yeah, yeah. Well,

Speaker 6 yeah, I mean, he is certainly full steam ahead on his tariff threats. For now,

Speaker 6 he said that a lot more are on the way to in April. He's implying that really big global tariffs will go into effect.

Speaker 6 But, you know, he said that exemptions undercut the power of his tariffs, and he's vowed not to do that this time.

Speaker 6 But honestly, I think, you know, it's hard for the president to resist the deal-making impulse. It's hard for him to resist trying to use tariffs as leverage.

Speaker 6 And it seems like he sees almost everything as a source of leverage in negotiations. He has a very transactional view of the world.

Speaker 6 So you've gotten into these situations where he is putting on very aggressive tariffs, but in some cases he's rolling them back, moving forward with them.

Speaker 6 And it's created just this very uncertain situation for businesses and for investors.

Speaker 2 Aaron Powell, David, to the stock market now.

Speaker 2 And of course, you know, the stock market is not the economy. They are, however, you know, very close cousins.

Speaker 2 It does does seem to me, and look, the president's people all say, no, no, no, he's not watching the stock markets, which honestly, I kind of don't believe. Let me rephrase that.

Speaker 2 I don't believe it at all. Forget the kinda.

Speaker 2 They are mutually exclusive, right? Keeping the markets calm and keeping these tariffs on or whatever he's doing, they are mutually exclusive.

Speaker 5 Yeah, I think what you're seeing in the stock market, and it's been a wild ride this week, is just increasing unease with what Ana was just describing.

Speaker 5 That is the president's affection for putting tariffs on and taking them off and threatening more of them.

Speaker 5 And I think you're seeing just kind of a general unease among people who are in the stock market, who are paying attention to the economy, just sort of wondering where all of this is headed.

Speaker 5 So you're right to issue your usual caveat about the stock market not being the economy, but I think that it's telling us that there is this sense that like things aren't happening the way that people want them to happen.

Speaker 5 And, you know, kind of pull back even more.

Speaker 5 We're hearing from big companies, from big box retailers, from grocers that it doesn't take long for these tariffs to have real world effects and for companies to worry about getting access to certain products, getting access to materials, worry about how much they're going to cost and how that's going to be transmitted to consumers.

Speaker 5 So all of it's happening.

Speaker 5 And I think the stock market is a prism through which we can see the effect that's having, not just on the economy, but on just regular folks who are kind of reckoning with what's happening here.

Speaker 2 So without extending the metaphor too far here, Ana, you know, we're in a trade war.

Speaker 2 We have become the aggressors in this trade war.

Speaker 2 Nobody wins a trade war, but I guess my question to you is, what does losing a trade war look like?

Speaker 6 Well, you know, there may not be any winners, but there are definitely winners, and some countries lose more. There are definitely losers, and some countries lose more than others, right?

Speaker 6 And so I think that's the bet that the president is making, that other countries are more reliant on the American market than we are on them.

Speaker 6 And that's certainly true in the case of countries like Canada and Mexico. Like, unfortunately, they're just kind of saddled to the U.S.

Speaker 6 market and just very dependent for exports to the United States. It's a little bit less true when you're thinking about countries that are more distant and big, like the European Union and China.

Speaker 6 And so you have seen some countries that are willing to try to call the president's bluff by retaliating.

Speaker 6 China, Europe, you've also seen Canada, you know, kind of standing up for itself, right?

Speaker 6 Maybe more because of a domestic political situation. And so countries are taking different routes.
Some are holding their firepower for now. Others are retaliating.

Speaker 6 And you are getting into these tit-for-tat cycles of tariffs that are really quickly escalating. And those costs are adding up for companies that depend on trade.

Speaker 2 David, on that, those costs adding up, and let me get back to the stock market real quick here.

Speaker 2 Obviously, just the disclaimer again, it's not the economy, but damage is being done to the real economy that is now manifesting in the markets. Do you agree or disagree?

Speaker 5 I agree with that. And I think, you know,

Speaker 5 you and I talk a lot about all different kinds of data, but I think the so-called soft data, the sentiment data is really crucial here. And we got some of that today from the University of Michigan.

Speaker 5 And

Speaker 5 we're seeing consumers who are worried about their prospects for saving and for the economy more generally.

Speaker 5 And then I think what's really concerning beyond that is their sense of where inflation is headed, their sense that inflation is going to stay elevated, go higher. And

Speaker 5 I mean, that's a really damning indicator. And one I think obviously the Fed is going to take notice of as they kind of plot their next steps here.
Yeah, just having real ramifications.

Speaker 5 And I think it's leading to more and more damage the longer this goes on. And we hear talk of an adjustment period or a period of transition.
That sounds like something that's quick and immediate.

Speaker 5 But I think what we're beginning to see here kind of in contours is it might not be that fast. It might be something more prolonged that could have more lasting effect.

Speaker 2 Ana, on that consumer confidence number out of the University of Michigan, interesting to me that the concern, one of the concerns expressed was concern about the labor market.

Speaker 2 I think the greatest concern about the labor market like since the Great Recession.

Speaker 6 Yeah. And, you know, it still seems like the labor market is fundamentally healthy, but private, but hiring has slowed.

Speaker 6 And, you know, I think people think that growth could cool somewhat this year. There's also, you know, rising sort of predictions of the chance of a recession.

Speaker 6 You know, so

Speaker 6 as we were saying,

Speaker 6 you know, it's some of this is vibes, but vibes translate into real economic activity from consumers and from businesses.

Speaker 6 And so that matters. And that could, you know, really determine some of the course of what we see over the coming months here.

Speaker 2 Vibes do matter. Anna Swanson at the New York Times, David Gura at Bloomberg North of the Border this week.
Thanks, you two.

Speaker 5 Thank you.

Speaker 2 Have a nice weekend. Wall Street on this Friday.
Up for the session, down for the week. Details, numbers, when we get there.

Speaker 2 As we head into spring, traditionally the most active season for home buying and selling, there is some heartening news.

Speaker 2 Mortgage rates have fallen seven of the past eight weeks, down from just over 7% in mid-January, and that itself was down from almost 8% in late 2023.

Speaker 2 While not wanting to look a gift horse in the mouth and acknowledging that the current 30-year fixed rate of 6.6-ish percent is still painful,

Speaker 2 what is going on? We asked Marketplace's Mitchell Hartman to find out.

Speaker 8 So, how is this spring home buying season going to go? Depends who you ask.

Speaker 9 When we ask people to describe their local housing market, doomed, inflated, crazy.

Speaker 8 That's Erica Gia Vanetti at U.S. News and World Report, which just released its spring home buyer survey.
What's most striking, she says?

Speaker 9 The disconnect between where home buyers want rates to be and where rates actually are. It is just simply unaffordable to buy at current rates and home prices for many, many people.

Speaker 8 Though mortgage rates have edged down lately, says Zillow economist Orfe Devon Guy.

Speaker 10 And buyers have more options than they had a year ago. It's the most homes for sale of any February since 2020.

Speaker 8 But remember, all real estate is local. Israel Hill is a broker in Portland, Oregon.

Speaker 12 What we're seeing here, a frenzy of activity, very limited inventory, and multiple offers. Those that can't afford it are just saying, okay, you know what? I'm going to make my move.

Speaker 12 I've been waiting for too long.

Speaker 8 But at the national level, the U.S. News survey finds four out of five buyers won't act until rates fall further.

Speaker 9 And says Erica Giovanetti, a quarter of those who are waiting want to see rates below 5%.

Speaker 9 That is not forecast to happen at all in 2025.

Speaker 13 It's challenging, to say the least, to figure out what direction mortgage rates will move in.

Speaker 8 Guy Sakala at Inside Mortgage Finance says right now mortgage rates are falling for a not very favorable reason.

Speaker 13 The stock market tanking as a result of the Trump administration's economic moves, particularly the tariffs.

Speaker 8 He says any improvement in the economic outlook could push mortgage rates up again. His best guess is that rates settle close to 6% later this year.

Speaker 8 And as for holding out for the rates we saw a few years ago, 3 or 4% mortgages? I don't think we're going to see that in the foreseeable future. I'm Mitchell Hartman for Marketplace.

Speaker 2 Schools and food banks around the country have been able to get tons of fresh produce and fresh meat from small local farms the past couple of years, thanks to federal funding.

Speaker 2 But that money is coming to an end.

Speaker 2 The Department of Agriculture is canceling the two programs that paid for all that fresh local food, totaling more than a billion dollars worth of contracts for small farmers and ranchers and fishermen.

Speaker 2 Marketplace is Samantha Fields. How's that one?

Speaker 7 Running a small family farm that turns a profit isn't easy. Emma Johnson's family has owned one for decades.

Speaker 15 I'm actually a fourth generation farmer.

Speaker 7 She and her husband run Buffalo Ridge Orchard with her parents on 80 acres in Central City, Iowa.

Speaker 15 We grow a lot of apples and we do grow some pears and then we grow from A to Z all of the different vegetables.

Speaker 7 Recently they've been selling a lot of their produce to local schools and food banks through these USDA programs, about $65,000 worth.

Speaker 15 And this season we are anticipating for those numbers to grow because the budget had grown.

Speaker 7 Instead, there's suddenly no budget for those programs, which means Johnson and her family are scrambling to figure out where else they can sell all those fruits and vegetables.

Speaker 7 Their contracts with schools and food banks were going to be about 25% of their income this year.

Speaker 16 That's jobs, that's staff, that's our ability to even have a profit for the season.

Speaker 7 In Pennsylvania, E. Nicole Taylor says she's also scrambling to figure out how the Great Valley School District, where she's a food service supervisor, is going to fill the sudden hole in its budget.

Speaker 7 They've been using federal funding to buy local meat, milk, and produce for school lunches.

Speaker 17 The meals that our students receive today are not the meals that I received when I was growing up.

Speaker 7 Now she says they may have to shift their budget around, cut somewhere, so they can afford some fresh local food.

Speaker 17 But there's some things that we're just not going to be able to offer our students.

Speaker 7 Families that rely on food banks will see a difference too. Paco Velez runs Feeding South Florida and he says buying locally has really changed what they can offer.

Speaker 14 You name it, it's grown here in Florida. We get asparagus, we get broccoli, we get strawberries, we get blueberries.

Speaker 7 Plus eggs, salmon, and yogurt. Without this USDA funding, the food bank will have less variety and just less food period.

Speaker 14 As the government starts pulling out, then it leaves a huge gap. So the first thing that came to mind is how are we going to do this?

Speaker 14 How are we going to ensure that as an organization we're doing everything that we can to fill that gap?

Speaker 7 I'm Samantha Fields for Marketplace.

Speaker 3 Coming up.

Speaker 18 The eggs. They went up, up, up, up, up.

Speaker 2 Egg prices have bakeries in a...

Speaker 2 All right, fine, I'll go there. Scramble.
But first, let's do the numbers.

Speaker 2 Dow Industrial is up 674 today, 1 and 2 thirds percent. Finished at 41,488.
The NASDAQ added 451 points, 2.6%.

Speaker 2 Closed at 17,754. The SP 500 gained 117 points, 2.10%.

Speaker 2 56 and 38 there. For the five days gone by, we should change the music here, I think.
The Dow fell three and a tenth percent. The NASDAQ subtracted two and four tenths percent.

Speaker 2 The SP 500 down two and a quarter percent.

Speaker 2 PepsiCo bubbled up up two tenths percent today after Bloomberg reported it's in advanced talks to buy the prebiotic soda brand Poppy for a billion and a half dollars.

Speaker 2 We just talked about that the other day. Poppy and the prebiotics, gut pops, I think they're called.
Rival Coca-Cola fizzed up about a tenth of one percent.

Speaker 2 Cosmetic retailer Ulta Beauty popped 13 and two-thirds percent today after reporting fourth quarter sales and profit came in above Wall Street estimates thanks to strong holiday season demand.

Speaker 2 Bond prices fell. When that happens, the yield goes up.
The yield on the tenure treasury note 4.31% to end the week, and you are listening to Marketplace.

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Speaker 2 this is marketplace i'm kai rizdahl the tariff retaliatory tariff life cycle is alive and well as you know and it is thriving in the u.s-china bilateral trade relationship one extremely relevant factor though is that we buy way more stuff from China than China buys from us.

Speaker 2 The trade deficit last year was nearly $300 billion.

Speaker 2 President Trump has, of course, urged Chinese consumers to buy American, which would, in turn, boost U.S. exports.
But getting those Chinese consumers to spend more is not easy.

Speaker 2 Marketplace Jennifer Peck has more from Shanghai.

Speaker 22 At a Starbucks in Shanghai, Kathy Guo sips an iced lemon tea. Coming from the Chinese countryside, she says she couldn't afford to buy anything American until she got to college.
It was a KFC meal.

Speaker 22 I had a part-time job then. I remember how good the KFC Sunday tasted, but then immediately regretted it because I worked hours just to afford that meal.

Speaker 22 Her consumption upgraded after she entered the workforce in 2010, when trade between the US and China was booming. I used to buy iPhones.
I've had the iPhone 4, 5, 6, and 7.

Speaker 22 When she became a mom, she pivoted to spend on her child, Dutch milk powder, higher quality meat at Sam's Club, and even a trip to Shanghai Disneyland. But then, Guo lost her office job in Shanghai.

Speaker 22 I said to my daughter, mommy doesn't have a job right now. Can we spend less? If we go to the movie theater, how about we don't have a big meal afterwards and just eat noodles?

Speaker 22 High unemployment, trade tensions, and the property crisis have made people spend more cautiously.

Speaker 22 Consumption last year contributed 45% to China's economic growth, down from 58% just before the pandemic.

Speaker 22 Officials have offered subsidies for people to upgrade anything from cars and fridges to cell phones.

Speaker 27 But, says Calvin Lam, senior China economist with Pantheon Macroeconomics in London, what they've done so far in terms of boosting domestic demand is always seen as underwhelming by market participants.

Speaker 22 He says investors shouldn't be surprised by this if they've paid attention to statements from China's leader Xi Jinping.

Speaker 27 He prioritizes China developments by putting all the resources in narrowing the technology gap between China and the US.

Speaker 22 Chinese officials have long preferred to help companies instead of handing out cash to consumers, says the China director of Eurasia Group, Wang Ban.

Speaker 28 They believe that companies can provide long-term steady stream of income. And if you subsidize consumers, they tend to become lazy.

Speaker 28 They enjoy using this phrase, we're not going to raise lazy Chinese.

Speaker 22 When the U.S. imposed new rounds of tariffs on Chinese exports this month, China's Premier Li Chiang announced in a government report that domestic demand should be a key driver of growth.

Speaker 29 We will vigorously boost consumption and investment returns and stimulate domestic demand across the board.

Speaker 22 He announced more subsidies, like rebates to encourage people to buy more. But boosting consumption won't be easy.

Speaker 22 Chinese consumers tend to save a lot, over 30% of their disposable income by some estimates, for education, housing, retirement, and healthcare. Again, economist Kelvin Lam.

Speaker 27 Basically, China has got very limited social safety nets.

Speaker 22 As for newly out-of-work Kathy Guo, she and her family now rely solely on her husband's salary.

Speaker 22 My husband used to save about 70% of his salary, but now that I don't have a job, we spend almost all of it.

Speaker 22 On things like their mortgage, car loan, and children's education, but not so much on buying stuff, whether Chinese or American. In Shanghai, I'm Jennifer Pack for Marketplace.

Speaker 2 The good news about egg inflation is that the price of a dozen is down about 15% over the past couple of weeks.

Speaker 2 The bad news about egg inflation is that even with that decline, the price of a dozen is still up about 170% from a year ago, data courtesy of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Speaker 2 So, restaurants and bakeries are adapting their recipes and raising their prices. This next story is about a small business where eggs are their bread and butter, if I can mix my metaphors.

Speaker 2 It's a one-of-a-kind cafe in a city famous for its restaurant scene. And it's a place that might soon be extinct, not entirely, though, because of the price of eggs.
Mary Beth Kirshner takes us there.

Speaker 25 At Cafe Jacqueline in San Francisco, the menu is all soufflés.

Speaker 22 Leek mushroom.

Speaker 16 A leek and mushroom souffle.

Speaker 3 Broccoli brief.

Speaker 25 Both entrees and desserts. We're going to get Gruyere.

Speaker 30 And what's the dessert?

Speaker 26 Chocolate.

Speaker 25 An 88-year-old chef, Jacqueline Margulies, whips up every single one. What does souffle mean in French?

Speaker 1 Soufflé is blow, is something that puffs up.

Speaker 25 Which is what glossy egg whites do like magic, elevating everyday eggs into a fragile towering masterpiece.

Speaker 25 Jacqueline opened her cafe 45 years ago in a former shoe repair shop in San Francisco's storied North Beach neighborhood, a hub of Italian restaurants and culture.

Speaker 18 Everybody said,

Speaker 18 Italian neighborhood? You're gonna put souffle, what is a souffle?

Speaker 25 Over four decades later, she's still making at least 25 exquisite souffles a night for her nine-table restaurant.

Speaker 30 A hush falls over the tables.

Speaker 25 Matt Weimer is the only waiter here. He's been at Cafe Jacqueline for 30 years.
Matt says he loves these moments when the conversation just stops.

Speaker 2 It's such a beautiful thing.

Speaker 30 They're in mid-sentence, this thing sits on the table, and they just go.

Speaker 30 And I love that.

Speaker 30 Now you'd like me to serve, or you'd like to dive right in?

Speaker 25 The menu, the decor, nothing's changed. There's no website.
You have to leave a phone message on their answering machine to make a reservation.

Speaker 2 One of my all-time favorite restaurants ever.

Speaker 25 In San Francisco, a tech hub with 28 Michelin-starred restaurants, Cafe Jacqueline is an anomaly. It's as low-key and low-tech as it gets.
You have no website.

Speaker 11 Have you ever looked online to see?

Speaker 25 So look, they list the hours and then there are pictures of soufflets.

Speaker 22 Look at these, Jacqueline.

Speaker 3 Wow.

Speaker 25 It's very nice. Jacqueline and Matt are busy with other priorities.

Speaker 18 It's almost 5.30. It's time to rock and roll.

Speaker 25 Jacqueline works in a galley-sized kitchen. She's whisking, beating, folding for five hours a night without a break.
She's tiny, 4'11, and her oven is over 6 feet tall.

Speaker 25 So when she opens the oven door for each souffle, it looks a bit like she's lifting a carry-on into the overhead of an airplane.

Speaker 25 And when each delicate souffle is ready, it's all a wonder, especially because Jacqueline fell and broke her shoulder just a few months ago.

Speaker 18 But within a couple weeks, the doctor said, Oh Mon Dieu, she's healing so well.

Speaker 18 Another week or so, you can go back to work. I said, that's very nice.

Speaker 25 And now her latest obstacle.

Speaker 18 The eggs. They went up, up, up, up, up.

Speaker 25 A case of eggs went from $75 a year ago to $230 now. That's over a 200% increase.
Some loyal customers like Alex and Taggy Lee started to fret.

Speaker 26 Somehow she manages to materialize her eggs. She has good juju.

Speaker 22 Everyone else can go without their eggs.

Speaker 16 Jacqueline needs the eggs.

Speaker 25 She raised prices a few months ago, $5 more per souffle.

Speaker 25 So far, not a single complaint.

Speaker 16 I I will be devastated when this isn't an option anymore.

Speaker 25 When will Chef Jacqueline put down her whisk?

Speaker 18 I don't want to be falling into my eggs. I don't know when I will hang my apron.
It's part of you.

Speaker 25 Jacqueline Margulies turns 89 next month. I'm Mary Beth Kirschner for Marketplace.

Speaker 2 This final note on the way out today, we don't do a whole lot of precious metals on this show, but here's a quick update on the original Safe Haven. Gold topped $3,000 an ounce at one point.

Speaker 2 Today closed just shy. The shiny yellow metal is up 14% year-to-date as, you know, things have been happening in this economy.
Our theme music was composed by B.J. Lederman.

Speaker 2 Marketplace's executive producer is Nancy Fargoi. Donna Tam is the executive editor.
Neil Scarborough is vice president and general manager. And I'm Kyrisdahl.

Speaker 2 Have yourselves a great weekend, everybody. We will see you again on Monday, all right?

Speaker 3 This is APM.

Speaker 23 Extra value meals are back. That means 10 tender juicy McNuggets and medium fries and a drink are just eight dollars, only at McDonald's.

Speaker 2 For limited time only, prices and participation may vary.

Speaker 19 Prices may be higher in Hawaii, Alaska and California and for delivery.