Elon’s Politics Detox, the “Big, Beautiful” Bill's Next Phase, and Open AI's Big Bet

Transcript

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Speaker 20 Oh, God, that's literally the worst spring break I've ever seen. And Marty Gras, you should throw a necklace at me if you're going to do that.

Speaker 21 Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network.
And I'm Tom Cruise.

Speaker 21 Oh, Oh, no, Tara Swisher.

Speaker 20 You're excited about that, huh?

Speaker 21 I am. I got the 10 o'clock show.
I'm going to the late show. It's three hours fucking long.
Do you know that? Two hours and 49 minutes.

Speaker 20 Wow.

Speaker 21 I know.

Speaker 4 It could be a lot of Tom Cruise.

Speaker 20 That is a lot of Tom Cruise. You're a big fan, though.

Speaker 21 I'm not a fan of him as a person, the Scientology part, but I love all his movies.

Speaker 20 The whole low conditioning thing.

Speaker 20 He doesn't pass my purity test, so I need to condition everything.

Speaker 21 No, I don't think it's a very good group of people from all that I've read. It's not a purity test.
Well, neither is the Catholic Church.

Speaker 20 He sounds like a pretty nice guy, though, no?

Speaker 21 He's always, he really sells these movies, I have to say. He's out there.
He's in theaters.

Speaker 21 He does the work. He is a very hardworking, massive celebrity.

Speaker 20 He really is the kind of the movie star that defines our generation, at least. Absolutely.

Speaker 20 I don't love Tom Cruise movies, but I'm a huge Tom Cruise fan. I just think he's, he works so hard.

Speaker 20 I love that he has a certain fidelity to movies and the big screen, and he's trying to promote theaters.

Speaker 20 And everything I've heard about him anecdotally about people who have interactions with him is that he's a very lovely guy.

Speaker 23 Yeah, hard worker.

Speaker 21 Hard worker. That's what I appreciate.
That's what I'm seeing. And I like the movies.
I'm sorry. I love all the movies he's in.
There's not a movie. I was just thinking of re-watching Taps.

Speaker 21 Do you remember Taps? That was really, even though he got famous in Risky Business, Taps, he played a crazy over-the-top military school cadet and Tim Hutton.

Speaker 21 Remember, they took over the school in the name of the...

Speaker 20 I do remember it. As a matter of fact, this is how things change.
The star of the movie who got paid more was Timothy Hutton.

Speaker 21 Hutton, right? That's what I said.

Speaker 20 He was the heartthrob at the time. And also, the other guy who was number two ahead of Tom Cruise in terms of the billing was Sean Penn.

Speaker 21 Sean Penn, you're right. That's right.
And it was all like, what did they do? And this and that. But Tom Cruise was the crazy one who like was all in.
Like, he was fantastic.

Speaker 21 He was fantastic in Born on the Fourth of July. He was great in Tropic Thunder.

Speaker 20 He should have won an Oscar for that. I think Brad Pitt and Tom Cruise were denied Oscars and Oscar nominations because they're so good looking.
Good looking, yeah.

Speaker 20 I think that Tom Cruise and Born on the Fourth of July was absolutely

Speaker 20 he was out.

Speaker 20 That was such a moving performance. There's a scene in that.
I remember there's a scene in that where he comes home.

Speaker 20 You know, it's based on a guy thinking, Ron Kovac, who's paralyzed in the Vietnam War. And there's such a moving scene between him and his father.

Speaker 20 You know, the mom is sort of overbearing and the dad's a softy. And this kid, you know, he's a kid back from Vietnam.
And he has this wonderful,

Speaker 1 as I think about it, actually, I love Tom Cruise as an actor.

Speaker 20 There's this scene where he's like, you know, putting him to bed and hooking up his catheter. And he's like sobbing.
He's like, dad, who's ever going to love me? So powerful. And then another great,

Speaker 20 really powerful scene is from a great movie called Magnolia, which he didn't get the credit he deserved. Another great movie.
Where he's...

Speaker 20 next to his dying father who abandoned him. He's obviously,

Speaker 20 I have some of my own father issues, but

Speaker 20 he really is, as I think about it, really an outstanding actor.

Speaker 21 Yeah. Anyway, I'm very excited, and I'm going to be up very late, but I'm super excited to go.

Speaker 21 Anyway, one quick note before we move on, some news breaking after our taping about the Trump administration's war with Harvard. You know, the university in Boston.

Speaker 21 Homeland Security Secretary Christy Noam, also known as Ice Barbie, and that's a compliment, ordered her department to terminate Harvard's student and exchange visitor program certification, certification, effectively barring the university's ability to admit foreign students.

Speaker 21 Harvard says it has nearly 10,000 people in its international academic population in an unusually petty move for the Trump administration, which specializes in petty moves.

Speaker 21 They have attacked Harvard in this way that really could hurt a lot of foreign students, because about a third of its students are from international countries all over the world. world.

Speaker 21 I think probably this will not happen. I think Trump administration will back down as it always does.
It's just another salvo that it likes to do publicly.

Speaker 21 Probably, if they keep at it, it will go to the Supreme Court, which is interesting because four of the nine justices went to Harvard Law School and two of them also went to Harvard College.

Speaker 21 The rest went to Yale and other

Speaker 21 important universities around the country. country.
I do think that eventually the Trump administration is going to pay for this kind of behavior and will lose, lose, lose, lose, lose again in court.

Speaker 21 We'll see how this turns out and we'll have plenty to say about it over the coming weeks. Oh, and one more thing, Scott.

Speaker 21 I have a quick update for you on the fake Scotts scam that's been floating around on, of course, Meta Property.

Speaker 20 Kara Swisher is so powerful.

Speaker 20 You connect me with literally like

Speaker 20 anyways. Go ahead, tell them the story.

Speaker 21 So you had complained about this. This is fake Scotts.
And I think it's absolutely something to complain about. I have the same issue on Amazon with fake Kara Swisher books.

Speaker 21 They don't take the care to get them down. And I think you made the very salient point that you don't see this in the New York Times or MSNBC or CNBC, but or Snap or even YouTube.
Anything.

Speaker 21 Tell them what happens. There's fake Scott selling investment advice, right?

Speaker 20 A bunch of my friends texted me and said, have you seen this? And some even said, should I do this? And I clicked on it and it's an AI-generated Scott saying, please sign up for my WhatsApp group.

Speaker 20 And there's a fee involved where I will share with you two to three stock tips every week.

Speaker 21 Good idea for us to do that, but go ahead.

Speaker 24 Well, it was everywhere and it was a scam.

Speaker 20 And that is just terrible for my brand. And I, I, we purposely, I don't, we don't take crypto investments.

Speaker 20 We turn down a lot of money and I'm, we're even quite cautious about doing financials because I take very seriously that I want young men to have economic security.

Speaker 20 And I think there's a bunch of grifters out there that have moved from finance to health who basically claim they can outperform the market if you just send them your 49 bucks and they'll give you insider stock tips or that you can't trust the industrial food complex buy their fucking ridiculous supplement, even though

Speaker 20 they failed biology in high school. And I'm very sensitive to the fact that young men can be very seduced by this.
And I think we both take economic viability very seriously in young people.

Speaker 20 So the fact that I'm out there.

Speaker 21 Only yoga pants for our customers.

Speaker 20 But there's literally probably tens of millions of people who have seen me trying to shill a fucking investment form on WhatsApp. That is just not, and most of them don't realize it's a scam.

Speaker 20 They just ignore it. That is not good for my brand.
That inhibits my ability to make a living. That hurts my brand equity, my reputation.
That is the definition of libel and defamation.

Speaker 20 And they can, with AI, figure out if someone in your house is about to go to a Beyoncé concert, but they can't find, they can't take that one ad.

Speaker 20 and send out a crawler across their network and go, anything saying this is fake and we're going to pull it down right away. They could do that in about a five.

Speaker 20 If they took two minutes of an engineer's time or two hours of an engineer's time to do it across everyone, everyone, they could get rid of all this shit.

Speaker 20 But instead, they throw up their arms and say, it's just too complex.

Speaker 21 Or we've gotten most of it. That's what sets you off.

Speaker 20 That was my favorite. While some still remains, I'm like, oh, okay.
So you've taken the knife 90% of the way out, but some still remains.

Speaker 20 Anyways, these people, you texted them immediately they got back to you.

Speaker 20 They texted me and then I texted you. I have been screaming into,

Speaker 20 I have been, you know, barking at the moon, trying to actually go through the, you know, the channels here, trying to get anyone's attention.

Speaker 20 And in about a hot minute, you got two people who I'm sure are lovely, nice people with good kids who are mendacious fucks hurting the world.

Speaker 21 Sorry, Andy. I told you.

Speaker 20 Anyway. No, I'm sure they're lovely people.
Everyone I meet from Facebook is super lovely. What happened? Oh, I haven't texted them back.
I'm scared.

Speaker 21 You're supposed to talk to them on the phone. He's like, I want to talk to you now.
And you didn't talk to them.

Speaker 23 Yeah, yeah.

Speaker 20 I got, I got distracted last night. I had, I stayed up late.
I watched last two episodes of friends and neighbors. I'll call them today.

Speaker 20 I'll call them today.

Speaker 21 All right. You do that.
They're so excited. You know, at the very same time something happened with your thing.
Walt couldn't get back into Facebook when he got a new iPhone.

Speaker 21 And they had put him on a security list by accident, some weird security list. So I think that didn't get fixed either, but he was a whole lot nicer about the situation.

Speaker 20 Well, even Alphabet has figured out a way not to have this shit on their network, right?

Speaker 21 One of the things that I was telling Amanda about it, and I said, she said, not everyone knows Carrouse Wisher, or if you fix it for one, why can't you fix it for everybody?

Speaker 21 That shouldn't be the way customer service works. They should take everything down.
There should be no mistakes.

Speaker 21 It can't be that hard. It's not in the New York Times.
It's not in magazines. It's not, I know it's a harder, difficult, more difficult thing, but that's the business you've chosen.

Speaker 21 And therefore, you need to keep your place clean.

Speaker 20 I see. I don't think it'd be that hard.

Speaker 20 I think they could so easily upload that video to AI and say, look for the attributes, the sentence structure, the photo resolution, everything, and go go identify this everywhere and pull it down.

Speaker 21 They give these makers a lot of outs. Like, I think it was whatever strikes that they get.
Anyway, you better fix it, boys, because Scott Galloway is not happy.

Speaker 20 They asked me if I had signed up for face scan or something. I'm like, no, I don't even know what you're talking about.

Speaker 21 No, you don't do anything like that. Like, you remember, you know how Amazon now has a hand scan at Whole Foods? And someone was like, Would you like to try it?

Speaker 21 I said, as fucking if, I would give my handprint to Amazon. Yeah, you pay just by putting your hand down.

Speaker 20 Really?

Speaker 21 Okay, we've got a lot to get to today, including target struggles and OpenAI making a deal with former Apple designer Johnny Ive with a photo that looked like he was marrying Sam Altman.

Speaker 21 It was a lovely photo.

Speaker 21 But first, Elon Musk says he plans to significantly reduce his political spending moving forward, saying in an interview with Bloomberg at the Qatar Economic Forum, I think I've done enough.

Speaker 21 I think we all think that.

Speaker 21 This, after he reported over $290 million in the 2024 election to support Trump and Republicans, he also spent roughly $25 million on that Wisconsin Supreme Court race that he like shit the bed,

Speaker 21 the cheese head hat, the whole thing. He shit the bed, essentially.
Things got a little testy in that same interview when he was asked about Doge saving less than originally promised.

Speaker 21 The whole thing was friggin testy. What a little baby and what a little wussy baby he is.
Okay, let's listen.

Speaker 25 What happened to the 2 trillion?

Speaker 20 Or do you expect it to happen immediately?

Speaker 25 Well, is it going to happen? Because Doge is supposed to run till next July.

Speaker 20 I mean, your question is absurd in its fundamental premise. Are you assuming that on day, you know, within a few months, there's an instant $2 trillion saved?

Speaker 25 No, I'm not at all. I'm just asking, is that still your aim, then?

Speaker 21 Is it still your aim to get to $2 trillion?

Speaker 20 Have we not made good progress given the amount of time?

Speaker 25 That's exactly what I'm asking. So, is it still your aim to go from $170 billion to $2 trillion?

Speaker 20 The ability of Doge to operate is a function of whether

Speaker 20 the government, and this includes the Congress, is willing to take our advice.

Speaker 20 We're not the dictators of the government. We are the advisors.

Speaker 21 This is such horseshit. He closed down a ton of stuff.
He didn't do well. That's all.

Speaker 21 Just like the Cybertruck, this was a flop so far.

Speaker 21 And of course, Congress has to pass it, but he ran through all the government, cutting things, closing things, firing things. He had plenty of power.

Speaker 21 And he had the President of the United States behind him. So he was running rampant.
What happened is he ran rampant. He did stupid things like the chainsaw thing.
He pushed around.

Speaker 21 And now there's story after story coming in about what a fucking nuisance he was to these people. Ran over Congress, ran over cabinet members, did stupid things, made idiotic mistakes.

Speaker 21 He's not getting to 2 trillion. And the entire interview was just ridiculous saying Tesla's doing great.
He's just such a, it's such horseshit. The sky is full of horseshit.
This was a failure.

Speaker 21 It was too bad.

Speaker 21 as we all say good thing to cut things and um he didn't reach his goals and even the 170 billion dollars is questionable i'm sure he's cost the the u.s taxpayer money but he got his he got his regulatory relief he's going to probably be part of that golden dome thing he will probably benefit in lots of ways with starlink and everything else so let's just say um he got his so one headline described this interview as a billionaire man child elon musk gives his most petulant interview to date uh i think that was correct scott any quick thoughts And then we'll talk about the Tesla part.

Speaker 20 Well, just some data. This has backfired.

Speaker 20 It was initially the best investment anyone had made for a quarter of a billion dollars and sort of the promotion of Tesla and the belief of the markets that this would pay off because we had gone to a kleptocracy.

Speaker 20 It's now the rivers have reversed and the tide is...

Speaker 15 turned entirely against them.

Speaker 20 And this has arguably been one of the greatest brand destructions. And Tesla was a great brand.
According to Axios Harris poll, Tesla has fallen from the eighth most reputable brand in 2021.

Speaker 20 I mean, that's in the company. Like Coca-Cola, right? You know, Amazon and Coke and Apple.
It's fallen from eighth to 95th.

Speaker 21 I'm surprised it hasn't even gone lower.

Speaker 20 We talked a lot about this. Their revenue was down 20%.

Speaker 20 Do you realize Tesla, despite the fact it trades at 150 times earnings and most automobile companies trade at 10, Tesla's sales are declining faster than any automobile company in the world?

Speaker 20 They declined 20%.

Speaker 20 Profits are down 71%. Sales, you want to talk about sales declines, down 59%

Speaker 20 year on year in France, 81% in Sweden, 74% in the Netherlands. Their sales have been cut in half in Switzerland, 33% in Portugal.
And their sales are down by two-thirds in Denmark. And

Speaker 20 what I don't get is he's such a, he is a brilliant guy, but

Speaker 20 he's alienated his core demographic.

Speaker 21 And he's alienated the Republicans. You should read these stories.

Speaker 20 He's alienated the wrong people.

Speaker 20 Three-quarters of Republicans would never consider buying an EV. So he's cozied up to the people who aren't interested in EVs.

Speaker 20 And then California, which is the biggest EV market in the U.S., Tesla sales in the state have dropped 12% and its market share has dropped almost 8%.

Speaker 20 So, and then let's just be clear about Doge.

Speaker 20 It's not saving the U.S. money, it's costing money because one of the recommendations they made was a plan to cut the IRS by 50%,

Speaker 20 which would essentially lead to a $400 billion increase in uncollected taxes.

Speaker 20 So if you're talking about effect on the Treasury and our receipts, let's give them the benefit of the doubt and say it is $150 billion.

Speaker 20 Well, but if you lose $400 billion in uncollected taxes, that's a quarter of a trillion dollar net loss to the U.S. government.
So you're down about $1.50 or $2 trillion

Speaker 20 over the next 10 years because Doge has emasculated our ability to collect taxes and the people who know him. And I'm writing a newsletter this week called Toligarchs.

Speaker 20 I think think there's this transnational oligarchy class that's emerging where people get so rich they can afford their own security and their own rights,

Speaker 20 their own family planning, their own schools. And as a result, they have less of a vested interest in the well-being and democracy of their native country.

Speaker 20 Anyways, and the problem is, or how this has arisen is the following, and that is

Speaker 20 what you see in America, and this has happened consistently, is that as income inequality has increased, a smaller and smaller group of people who are unified in their love of low taxes and getting richer continue to weaponize the government.

Speaker 20 And the result is, as wealth concentrates, political spending capacity increases, which secures policy outcomes that further concentrate wealth. And you enter into a doom loop.

Speaker 20 The share of wealth of the top 0.1% since 1980 has tripled. Their share of wealth.
Political spending has increased 17 times in real terms on an inflation justice basis.

Speaker 20 So that means, and what do you know, combined corporate and top individual tax rates fell from an average of 58 to 29%. So as the 0.1% gets wealthier

Speaker 20 over the last 40%, their effective tax rate has been cut in half. So you see a correlation here.

Speaker 20 And that is unless you step in and redistribute income from corporations and the 0.1% to the middle class, they increasingly, and I live this firsthand. It's just.

Speaker 20 When you're paid not to understand something, it's really easy to not understand it.

Speaker 20 And people can talk about, oh, income inequality, but at the end of the day, they vote for candidates and give money to candidates who are going to find a way to continue to cut their taxes.

Speaker 20 We have to have class traders.

Speaker 20 We have to have rich people. We do.
You know, FDR was a class trader.

Speaker 20 Truman was a class trader who turned around to these very rich people in these special interest groups and these lobbyists and say, no fucking way. No, you're going to hate me.

Speaker 20 I appreciate all the money you gave to me, but you're going to hate me.

Speaker 21 I'm coming for your ass. So when he asked, was asked about returning to Tesla and his commitment to the company, baby Huey attempted his usual brand of awkward comedy.
Check it out.

Speaker 26 Do you see yourself and are you committed to still being the chief executive of Tesla in five years' time?

Speaker 22 Yes.

Speaker 26 No doubt about that at all.

Speaker 22 Well,

Speaker 16 no, I might die.

Speaker 21 You know, I think one of the things that I don't believe is he will stop his financial involvement in politics.

Speaker 21 Back in March of 2024, he said he wouldn't be donating to either candidate in the presidential election.

Speaker 21 I called that horse shit then, very clearly, that he was obviously going to back President Trump because it was an existential crisis for him to be attacked for a Harris presidency.

Speaker 21 And that's exactly what he did. And he lied about it.
He just lied about it.

Speaker 21 His posts on X have become less political in recent months. So Washington Post analysis found under 20% of his posts are now about Doge or politics, while more than half are about tech.

Speaker 21 and his businesses.

Speaker 21 This interview was such a disaster. The reporter was trying her best to try to get an answer out of him.
And then in a separate interview on CNBC, he should just shut up.

Speaker 21 He also said robo-taxis would be driving around Austin in June and LA and San Francisco after that. I would not get

Speaker 21 in a robo-taxi because they haven't had any. And even one of the people who was doing this said they were years behind Waymo.
And I was reticent.

Speaker 21 I now go in Waymo's quite confidently, but I would never get in one of these.

Speaker 21 And before we move on, I just want to note that in that CNBC interview, Elon was asked about his plans to combine Tesla and XAI, a merger. I predicted a few weeks ago he didn't rule it out completely.

Speaker 21 Let's listen to what he said.

Speaker 28 It's not out of the question, but that would have to be something that the Tesla shareholders would want to vote for.

Speaker 20 Understood.

Speaker 20 But it's not something you're thinking about doing.

Speaker 28 It's not currently.

Speaker 28 There are no plans to do so. Right.
It's not out of the question, but obviously it would require Tesla shareholder support.

Speaker 21 Well, that means yes, obviously.

Speaker 20 Yeah, I 100% agree.

Speaker 20 The only pushback I would give here, and I think some of,

Speaker 20 and I share this bias, but I think your bias is coming out here, and that is against Elon, which I share. But one, I do think he should continue to do interviews.

Speaker 20 I think he gets so much free attention. He still has a big fan base.
I guess. You're right.
And free media around Tesla all the time and SpaceX and attention.

Speaker 20 I do think that is worth billions of dollars and he should probably continue to do it. Should he be coached a little bit better about things to say?

Speaker 20 He was coached there when he said, well, shareholders would have to approve it. That's not true.
He can muscle around his board, but that was the smart thing to say. The other thing is, I disagree.

Speaker 20 I think a lot of people, you may not. You didn't say a lot of people.
You said you wouldn't. A lot of people will try self-driving from Tesla.

Speaker 20 I don't think they're going to hesitate to get into a Tesla.

Speaker 21 I didn't think they wouldn't. I'm just telling you, as someone who's ridden in the earliest ones till now, they simply aren't safe enough.
They are not safe enough.

Speaker 20 I believe that you wouldn't. I think there's a lot of people that will try an autonomous Tesla taxi.

Speaker 21 Yeah, I just don't think. Listen, he was saying robo-taxis are coming by this date, and that was eight years ago.
And it was a date.

Speaker 21 Waymo has written circles around him in this issue. And so have others, by the way.
There's some Amazon efforts, there's Aurora.

Speaker 21 Everybody has moved forward here. And for him to pretend that they're not extraordinary, it's the same thing with AI.
Like, look, he was extraordinary late with Kroc.

Speaker 21 Good catch-up, sort of, I guess, although the numbers are pretty low compared to other things. But he just declares thing.
It drives me fucking nuts. And it may be biased.

Speaker 21 I just wouldn't, I don't think he should. I think he should go away for a while and keep quiet.
That's, I get what you're saying. But every, I think he became a nuisance at the White House.

Speaker 21 And now there's. Well, he's out.

Speaker 20 He's, but we predicted this.

Speaker 21 No, I get that. I'm saying I think he exhausted people with his never shutting up and his ridiculous jokes and his bullying.

Speaker 20 The exact moment was when I saw that whatever it is, the head of the province in Ontario said he was canceling a SpaceX contract. I'm like, he's out.
He'll leave government.

Speaker 20 Once he sees that happening, he's out.

Speaker 20 He's going to pull the Vivek. Vivek was fired, but basically he's going to fade to black.
And he did. Literally from that moment on, he started fading back into the bushes.

Speaker 20 And your analysis was the correct one. And that is they don't want him around, but they're scared of him because of his money and his platform.
But he's out. He's gone.

Speaker 21 This is what he should do. Let me leave on a positive note here.
He should work on his fucking cars and not make shitty cars.

Speaker 21 And the reason why Tesla's not doing well is because there's an old car that it's a a very good car, but it's something that's not a fresh car.

Speaker 21 And the Cybertruck is a, you know, sorry, that was his midlife crisis, I guess, not a good car. He should make good products and roll them out.
That's what he should do. That's what he was good at.

Speaker 21 And now he only, and he's bad at government. He's bad at a lot of things.
He's bad at media.

Speaker 21 He should go back and do the things he does best, which is be very bold about cutting edge products and then improve Starlink, improve the Tesla product. There's no way he couldn't come back.

Speaker 21 Tesla couldn't come back from this if they made good cars, but they aren't. And so he could blame all the protests.
He can blame anyone else, but the responsibility lies with him.

Speaker 21 Speaking about responsibility, we're learning more about former President Joe Biden's prostate cancer diagnosis.

Speaker 21 Biden did not receive his diagnosis until last week, and his last known PSA screening, that's what they used to do these, was in 2014, according to a spokesman. That is an astonishing thing.

Speaker 21 I cannot believe that.

Speaker 21 You had noted this, and I I was shocked again when I saw that.

Speaker 21 That information comes amid ongoing speculation about a possible cover-up, including from President Trump, who claims somebody is not telling the facts.

Speaker 21 He would know about that. Medical experts point to guidelines that advise against PSA screenings for men over the age of 70, I guess.
He's the president, though.

Speaker 21 Though some people are raising questions about whether Biden as president should have still been screened, such as you did. Scott, you asked this question earlier this week.

Speaker 21 Where do you think we stand now? And by the way, you also spoke with CNN's Jake Tapper on Prof G this week.

Speaker 21 Jake is the co-author of the new book, Original Sin, President Biden's Decline, Its Cover-Up, and His Disastrous Choice to Run Again.

Speaker 21 Let's listen to the clip when he talks about what it means for Democrats.

Speaker 29 All of Democrats right now are being blamed for

Speaker 29 the Biden fiasco. And by that, I mean his decision to run for re-election and his decision to hide his deterioration.

Speaker 29 As our reporting suggests, this was the fault of President Biden, his wife, and his son, and like a number, a few top aides.

Speaker 29 But this isn't necessarily something that could be laid on the feet of every single elected Democrat in the country.

Speaker 29 My personal view is that until the Democratic Party reckons with that, people are going to have a very difficult time trusting them on anything.

Speaker 21 So what do you think about the screening? And then tell me a little bit about your thoughts here.

Speaker 20 Look, Look, so I've tried to be,

Speaker 20 I think, like a lot of people during COVID, I decided I was a junior epidemiologist. And what I realized is I had no fucking idea what I was talking about.
Yeah.

Speaker 20 So when it comes to medical advice, I try to be more measured. And what I'll say as a citizen who gets regular prostate exams and even has a regular MRI that looks and images my prostate.

Speaker 20 And the PSA test is a blood test. That's it.
It costs 100 bucks.

Speaker 20 It just seems weird to me that this guy wasn't getting the most robust scans in history and PSA tests all the time.

Speaker 21 As president.

Speaker 20 As president. Your brother immediately reached out to me and said, it's not unusual for a man of this age to find out in a screening that it is this advanced.

Speaker 30 And

Speaker 20 I believe Dr. Jeffrey Swisher, who spent a decade of his life studying these issues, over my instincts.
Having said that, I still think this is just

Speaker 20 incredibly odd. And we don't, there's so much understandable and deserved affection and goodwill towards Joe Biden right now.
But this is the reality. He has ruined his legacy.

Speaker 20 This is what he'll be remembered for. He'll be remembered for the guy who fucked up and got an insurrectionist elected.

Speaker 20 This is the fine point on his career that will be the thing that he was known for. Our years of public service.

Speaker 21 Plus, he stopped him and then he got him elected, right?

Speaker 20 And he would have gone out a hero. This was such incredibly poor judgment.
And it brings up two issues around how we move forward.

Speaker 20 The first is, and we talked about this last week, we need, if we're going to have age limits on the lower end, we need them on the upper end.

Speaker 20 And two, the Democratic Party needs to recognize that one of the greatest tools we have in history in terms of our democracy is the primary process.

Speaker 20 The primary process is such full body contact violence and incredible competition that it matures not only the right person, but the right person for the moment. No one had heard of Barack Obama.

Speaker 20 No one had heard of Bill Clinton. No party, no, the Democratic Party wasn't going to pick either of those people.
But you know what?

Speaker 20 They just rose every week and did the work and America fell in love with them. So when the Democratic Party tries to clear Bernie Sanders out of the way for Secretary Clinton or Barack,

Speaker 20 you have to let... our primary process run.

Speaker 20 And the fact, in my opinion, another mistake they made in addition to this concentral hallucination we all entered in with each other is that I think they should have had a super shark tank like mini primary rather than just anointing Vice President Harris.

Speaker 20 I think they could have made it. And I want to be clear.
I don't think we're guilty of Monday morning quarterbacking. I was Saturday afternoon quarterbacking.
I said

Speaker 20 have a mini shark tank like

Speaker 20 primary with the best eight candidates go from two debates with eight, then to four, then to two. It would have dominated the media cycle.

Speaker 20 And by the way, Trump was dominating it because they were afraid to let Joe out of the basement.

Speaker 15 We would have, Democrats would have dominated it.

Speaker 20 And who knows, maybe it would have been Vice President Harris that would have matured. I don't think she would have.
The woman who.

Speaker 21 Yeah, she needed more time.

Speaker 20 Well, the bottom line is we don't want to acknowledge this. She's not a great candidate.

Speaker 20 I think she did a good job given the hand she was dealt with, but this is a candidate who didn't make it to Iowa four years earlier, which says to me, America didn't think of her as a great candidate.

Speaker 21 I thought she did a lot better. The first 60 days I thought were terrific, I thought, for her.

Speaker 20 Look,

Speaker 20 I think given the hand she was dealt, Vice President Harris, first off, I think one of the great performances in political history was her debate.

Speaker 20 I think the amount of pressure that she must have felt and for her to show up and be that composed, that articulate, that deft, practicing with two screens, I thought that was one of the great performances in political history.

Speaker 20 The reality is she was not a strong candidate. And

Speaker 20 President Biden and his family's narcissism have severely fucked this country, Severely. And that is his legacy.

Speaker 20 And we want to have, and I will get shit for this because people are correctly feeling empathy for him. But his legacy, in my view, has been ruined by this.

Speaker 21 Which continues. We were pretty outspoken, you first, and then you convinced me of his need to step down at the time.
And we got so much endless shit. You remember how much endless shit we got?

Speaker 21 I have blocked so many people on all the social networks because they just can't, they do have a derangement syndrome.

Speaker 21 I was like, you can't say to yourself what a fuck up this was because, you know, because it's not the point. I think we should move on, by the way.
I think we've got to move on quickly.

Speaker 21 And there's lots of ways to do that. We made a mistake.
We needed to do this. We're going to do things differently.
We're so sorry. Please trust us again.

Speaker 21 And here's how you can trust us by doing, as you said, a robust primary, correct?

Speaker 21 Here's some answers from us. Here's what we're going to do.

Speaker 21 And also saying out loud, Joe Biden betrayed us, right? Just say it. Sorry, he's sick.

Speaker 20 Betrayal is a strong word. He screwed up and we went along with it.
He screwed up.

Speaker 21 Okay. He screwed up and we went.
Okay. Betrayed is not the right word.
You're right. Okay.
But that said, like, stop it, you people.

Speaker 21 Like, you, you yelled at us when we said, which, which would have been a much better outcome, especially you, Scott. You were really out on that limb.
And I'm not giving you credit.

Speaker 21 It's just you were right. And it's the same problem we had.
We can't say anything because Trump, yes, we can say things.

Speaker 20 Look at the shit Tapper's getting right now. People are so angry at him.
Yeah, yeah, he is getting him. People are so angry.

Speaker 20 By the way, just we should point out or try and use this for some good about the importance of a prostate exam. And you know,

Speaker 20 you know, how you can tell or how I can tell it's going to be a really great prostate exam.

Speaker 20 I feel two hands on my shoulders.

Speaker 21 Oh my God.

Speaker 20 By the way, if Patrick comes over and gives me an in-home prostate exam, I think I should be reimbursed by my insurance.

Speaker 21 Okay, okay.

Speaker 21 Getting back to Tapper, the other thing is i've just gotten several of these new these books on the presidential race and stuff like that and i do have to say there's a lot of news in a lot of these they're all under embargo and stuff but sometimes you feel like maybe you should have said it at the time like you know when reporters have to do and here's where i do think the media is culpable i think a lot more reporters knew about this and several did some great pieces um talking about this but they got relentlessly pummeled when they did you were called an ist The moment you said it, you were called.

Speaker 20 No one wants to be called an issue. No one wants to be called a sexist or ageist, but immediately you were called,

Speaker 20 you were called an ageist right away. Oh, you're an ageist.

Speaker 20 You don't think you can do it.

Speaker 21 But reporters got the pressure. And in that way, they really have to just push back and keep going.
And

Speaker 21 they're not a creature of Trump. If they, the guy was a president and they should have done a good job covering him despite the fears of Trump.
And that's just the way it's got to be. I'm sorry.

Speaker 21 There's no, by all means necessary is not the way the Democrats could construct themselves. Anyway, okay, Scott, let's go on a quick break.

Speaker 21 When we come back, the bond market gets a little yippy again.

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Speaker 21 Scott, we're back. Republicans in the U.S.
House of Representatives passed President Trump's big beautiful tax bill on Thursday morning with a 215 to 214 vote. I mean, it was one person.

Speaker 21 The stock slid this week with the Dow dropping over 800 points on Wednesday as bond yields spiked following a weak auction of the 20-year Treasury bonds and concerns about the budget bill.

Speaker 21 I mean, this is just what you're talking about, selling out the poor to feed the rich. The 10-year and 30-year bond yields also jumped sharply, a very disturbing indicator.

Speaker 21 30-year rising above 5% to its highest level since October 2023. The sell-off isn't just a U.S.
story. Bond yields are rising globally too, with Japan and the U.K.
seeking similar moves.

Speaker 21 The bond market got yippy back in April, as Trump put it, which led him to pause the tariffs.

Speaker 21 I'd like you to explain what's going on without a penis joke and as pithy as you can be there for the people who don't understand it.

Speaker 20 Well, look, this is, and several nonpartisan economic think tanks have said that this tax bill is the greatest transfer

Speaker 23 of capital

Speaker 20 and

Speaker 20 money from poor to rich in history.

Speaker 20 And adding $5 trillion to the debt, which will increase interest rates for everybody and young people, is basically a deferred tax on young people such that

Speaker 20 it's very simple to understand this tax cut. The top 5% are getting a tax cut.
The bottom 95%

Speaker 20 are getting a tax increase.

Speaker 20 And I was hopeful that this thing was going to be rejected. I thought the arguments were just so insane and cruel that they weren't going deep enough in the cuts.

Speaker 20 Effectively, I was with Anthony Scaramucci last night, who I just continue to be so impressed with. I think he's so thoughtful.

Speaker 20 And he brought up something so interesting and that is is he in london yeah he's in london

Speaker 20 and he brought up so something so interesting he said look you had effectively you had republicans were

Speaker 20 fiscal budget hawks they were very concerned about the deficit and clinton who was a moderate figured out a way to have a surplus and al gore said, with my economic plan, over the next eight to 10 years, we're going to have four to five trillion dollars in surpluses.

Speaker 20 Bush won. And that was really the pivot point because what Bush did was the following.

Speaker 20 He convinced, he decided, and the American public has gotten used to this, he decided we can have our cake and eat it too. And what he did was he decided to go to war and lower taxes at the same time.

Speaker 20 And nothing really happened in the short term to the markets because we have built up so much. borrowing capacity because of the responsible fiscal approach of our predecessors.

Speaker 20 And the result is when we decided during during

Speaker 20 W's administration that we could cut taxes and spend more, we began

Speaker 20 essentially a downward spiral of fiscal irresponsibility that Democrats and Republicans have both taken a play from.

Speaker 20 That the haunting or the negative impact of deficits don't come to fruition during my administration. So whatever, I'm just going to keep everybody happy.

Speaker 20 I'm going to, the far left and the far right meet around, I know, let's cut taxes and I know let's increase social spending.

Speaker 20 By the way, government expenditures are up $200 billion since Trump took office compared to last year.

Speaker 20 And also, Biden, despite railing against the billionaire class, not paying enough taxes, during the Biden administration, taxes went down. So this is a continuation.

Speaker 20 of the same irresponsible fiscal behavior, but this is a focus and this kind of embodies what America has become about.

Speaker 31 And that is the bottom 95%

Speaker 20 are here to optimize the lifestyle and economics of the top 5%.

Speaker 20 And one of the reasons we do this is because Republicans are very good at representing the top 5% and convincing the top 50 that they'll be there.

Speaker 20 That Americans are so optimistic, they believe at some point they might be in the top 5%.

Speaker 20 And because Democrats, quite frankly, just don't want to be serious about,

Speaker 20 neither side wants to be serious about either raising taxes or cutting spending. And neither is willing to have a serious conversation.

Speaker 20 The best the Democrats will do will say, at some point, when I interviewed

Speaker 20 Leader Jeffries with Jess, he said, Well, at some point we should probably have that conversation. But no Democrat will stand up and say, We probably need to means test Social Security.

Speaker 20 The only person I've found who's being kind of responsible is Senator Chris Murphy. He's actually naming programs we need to take a hard look at.
But just this is a transfer of wealth.

Speaker 21 Explain what the bond market's saying very quickly.

Speaker 20 Oh, the bond market is saying that this irresponsible fiscal behavior makes that means that lending money to U.S. companies and to the U.S.

Speaker 20 government is now riskier, meaning that you need to get paid more to take that risk. And effectively, what you have is the bond year, the 30-year treasury is at 5.09%.

Speaker 20 And that's the greatest or the highest it's been since October of 23.

Speaker 20 And this impacts, this means you're paying more for your student loans, your credit cards, your mortgages, and companies are less inclined to borrow money to grow because it's more expensive.

Speaker 20 In other words, everything everywhere gets a little bit more expensive. Now, that's okay if you're the 5% getting a huge tax credit because I don't have student loans.

Speaker 20 My mortgage, if it goes up 25 bips, that still will be overcompensated by the tax cut that I will get.

Speaker 20 But the bottom 95% see their taxes go up and see an increase in costs across their debt instruments.

Speaker 20 And their kids are really going to have a tough time because the fastest growing expense line in the government budget right now is the interest on our debt. It's not investing in infrastructure.

Speaker 20 It's not social services to keep seniors out of poverty. And this is how nations fail.
Nations don't fail because they get invaded. They fail because they go broke.
That's what we're doing.

Speaker 21 And we're not creating the economic opportunity because we have, we're paying interest rates. That's what it's usury against ourselves, which is really astonishing.
Anyway, we'll see what goes on.

Speaker 21 They're going to pass it. But that was a tight vote.
You know, again, I have to insult all the congressional Republicans who pretend they're hawks. Fuck you for voting for this.

Speaker 21 Like, if you really cared, you would do something not like this, but you did it anyway.

Speaker 21 I don't know what deal you got or whatever promise, but it's all nonsense if you don't stick to your guns on this stuff.

Speaker 21 iPhone designer Johnny Ive and his design firm are taking over creative and design at OpenAI. This is an interesting story, speaking of expansion, to develop consumer devices and other products.

Speaker 21 Ives design firm and OpenAI CEO Sam Alton have reportedly been working on a device that moves beyond screens, including headphones on other devices with cameras.

Speaker 21 Ive will also work on future versions of ChatGPT, audio features, and its OpenAI's app. Ive also leads I.O., a company founded to design and develop a new family of AI products.

Speaker 21 OpenAI will acquire I.O. in an all-equity deal valued at $6.5 billion.

Speaker 21 So here we are. We have Johnny Ive coming back, the obviously famous iPhone guy,

Speaker 21 Aluminium. I just want to note, I spoke to Ive at Code in 2022.
He was on a panel about Steve Jobs with Lorraine Powell Jobs and Tim Cook. It was the last Code session ever,

Speaker 21 because Jobs was the first one.

Speaker 21 I asked him about intentionality and responsibility when designing tech products. Let's take a listen.

Speaker 42 I think if you're innovating, there will always be unintended consequences, some of them wonderful and some of them not wonderful.

Speaker 42 And I think the issue is just how, you know, your decision in terms of what responsibility you need to shoulder. I think the more powerful, I mean, there's wonderful historic

Speaker 42 precedent for

Speaker 42 powerful tools having

Speaker 42 that

Speaker 42 ability to be used in both ways.

Speaker 42 But I think it's, you know, the consequences.

Speaker 42 In the end of the day, I think it comes down to how you view your responsibility.

Speaker 21 Yeah, he's a very articulate person about design. He also insulted the current,

Speaker 21 there was Humane Pin, a couple of pins. He thought they sucked.
But is it too early in the process here at OpenA? They're clearly, as you noted, going consumer if they're bringing in Johnny Ive.

Speaker 21 And I will note, Ive and Altman are very close friends. And again, the picture they took together was really kind of odd and interesting.

Speaker 21 It looked like they were, it was like an engagement photo in the New York Times. What do you think about this?

Speaker 20 Well, it is a big moment in business history because this is now the most expensive Aqua Hire of all time. Yeah.
At $6.5 billion.

Speaker 20 And at just 55 employees, that's $120 million per employee. Actually, no, the biggest, number three was Instagram.
I think it was 20 people, billions, so 50 million. This is now, I was wrong.

Speaker 20 This is now number two, at $120 million per employee. Number one was Meta's acquisition of WhatsApp, which was purchased for over $300 million per employee.
But this was an aqua hire.

Speaker 20 They're getting stock. I don't think they're getting cash.
But even if it gets cut in half or by 75%,

Speaker 20 I think OpenAI is dramatically overvalued right now. But this is an Aqua hire.
And I can see why the justification is they got a lot of press, a lot of awareness today.

Speaker 20 Quite frankly, this isn't as big a story as Google's announcement of some of their AI products yesterday.

Speaker 21 Yeah, we're going to do that next.

Speaker 20 I know, but my point is. Open AI stepped on that.

Speaker 20 Yes. Basically,

Speaker 20 it took the oxygen out of the room. I don't know if they planned it, but it was quite brilliant.
As soon as Google came out with this, they came out with this love picture of them.

Speaker 20 And Johnny Ive is a very compelling, charismatic guy. And they stepped all over Alphabet's big announcement, which, by the way, is a lot more meaningful in terms of tech news.

Speaker 21 That was a jobs move. Yeah.

Speaker 20 They stepped on it.

Speaker 20 They basically said, now

Speaker 20 back of the bus in terms of your story.

Speaker 20 Look, good for Johnny Ive. He's a visionary.

Speaker 20 This is them saying that if we can come up with a better user interface or some sort of hardware product, it signals to the market that they're more leadership. Is it worth $6.5 billion?

Speaker 20 That's a 2% dilution at a $340 billion. I mean, that's real freaking

Speaker 20 dilution. But if it gets them awareness and they can end up having a cleaner user interface on their search or whatever products, you know, good for them.
So,

Speaker 20 look, I think it was a risk worth taking.

Speaker 21 Talk about the consumer,

Speaker 21 because they're obviously leaning in. Johnny Ive is the, probably the greatest designer in consumer technology history, right? One of them.
I mean, possibly the one.

Speaker 21 And so this is the idea of how do you make AI useful, right? And so a lot of it is very kludgey, how you use AI. And those pins were just ridiculous.
We made fun of them.

Speaker 21 But there has to be some way, because I have to say, I've been noticing, I mean, you use AI all the time. I'm really using it.
I don't use Google search anymore. I use ChatGPT.

Speaker 21 And they're better answers. They really are.

Speaker 21 And

Speaker 21 I'd like a little more information about the provenance of the information I'm getting sometimes.

Speaker 21 But I feel pretty good about it. It's getting better and better, that's for sure.
But interestingly, my Apple things are getting useful.

Speaker 21 In my messages, suddenly it said your Amazon package is at your doorstep. And it never did that before.

Speaker 21 AI is definitely inserting itself, trying to coordinate all my apps at this point in a way that's much more actually useful. But do you think that they're going full consumer here?

Speaker 21 And they're hitting at phone makers. They're hitting at search.
They're hitting at

Speaker 21 travel agencies. They're hitting at libraries.
I mean, how do you look at this?

Speaker 20 I mean, you could see an AI phone. And Johnny I

Speaker 20 is one of probably the

Speaker 20 three or five, one of the three or five greatest consumer designers. I mean, I'll list off some others.
Charles and Ray Eames, the furniture guys, Dieter Rams, who was

Speaker 20 kind of the original consumer design company, I think, was Braun. They said that, you know, this stuff can be more interesting and not just functional and ugly and look like Soviets designed it.

Speaker 20 James Dyson, I think, would have to be up there.

Speaker 20 A guy named Achille Castiglione, who was known for furniture and lighting. If you...

Speaker 20 You know, I love furniture, and I think some of the more interesting design and consumers actually been in furniture of all places. But anyways, he's right up there.
I can see an AI phone.

Speaker 20 There's something about when you get a physical product

Speaker 20 that creates,

Speaker 20 I was having lunch with Jordan Harbinger. He's a great podcaster and I just like him.
I think he's a really decent young man. And I said, my advice to him was, you need to write a book because

Speaker 20 something you can hold in your hands. It takes the podcaster and makes it gives you a level of heft and gravitas.
I kind of feel the same about a physical product for these digital-only companies.

Speaker 20 That if Google can put out an interesting laptop or a good phone, and the Pixel phone, while it hasn't really gotten any traction, is a great phone, it gives you a certain level of, I don't know, heft gravitas

Speaker 20 that it takes you, I mean, for God's sakes, Meta's been trying to figure it out. They might have it with their AR Ray-Band glasses.

Speaker 20 But there's just a certain affinity or affection or gravitas you get when you have something people can hold in their hands or marvel at its beauty because you are limited in terms of what you can do in a digital interface.

Speaker 21 You know what I was thinking? My iPhone suddenly feels older, too old. Like

Speaker 21 something else has to come.

Speaker 21 And I, for the first time when I read this, even though Ives has sort of been through many cycles and he's sort of at the end of a very long and illustrious career, I think he's got one more in him.

Speaker 21 And like, it's,

Speaker 21 someone could supplant Apple. Someone could.
That's what I thought of when I heard this.

Speaker 20 Will. You know, it'll happen at some point.
Just when.

Speaker 21 Yes, I know. But I thought someone, of course, will.
But now I'm like, oh, I can see it. I can see them making something I would buy.
Anyway, we'll see. We'll see.

Speaker 20 So

Speaker 20 I'm an investor and was on the board for a couple of years in a company called Ledger, which is kind of the premier hardware wallet for crypto.

Speaker 21 Yeah, they're in a little trouble because of some security issues. A lot of their stuff got...

Speaker 20 Actually, I think, well, it's still known as a secure story. The company is doing really well.

Speaker 20 I see the numbers. But anyways, I left the board mostly because I hate crypto and I shit post it everywhere.
So I wasn't a good fit for that board.

Speaker 20 But you know who took my spot is Tony Fidel. Oh, yeah.

Speaker 21 Another great decision.

Speaker 20 Yeah, because the company realized he's been very involved in the design. And one of the things that Ledger nanos do have on the competition is they just kind of feel better in your hand.

Speaker 20 They look cooler. Yeah.
They're beautiful. And so they realize that the guy who, you know,

Speaker 20 the guy who was involved in the iPod and

Speaker 20 I think he was involved in Nest, that it makes sense. These people, top end designers are rock stars and they can have a material impact on the perception.

Speaker 20 And when you have a tech company with people who brighten up a room by leaving it, having some of that sex appeal in the, in beautiful things,

Speaker 20 as I just talk process this, it probably is worth the 2% dilution when this company is trading at three.

Speaker 20 You know, OpenAI needs to maintain a lot of momentum and constantly be in the news to justify a third of a trillion dollar valuation right now.

Speaker 21 Yeah, it's a beautiful thing. It's a beautiful thing.
I have one. It's gorgeous.
And Tony is really great. The other one would be Eve Bahar.
There's a couple.

Speaker 20 Oh, that's a good one.

Speaker 21 And then Susan Kerr, who designed all the original stuff for Apple, all the iconic stuff for Apple. She did all the, anyway, there's a couple of really well-known tech designers.

Speaker 21 And I was at the very top of that pile in any case. All right, Scott, let's go on a quick break.
We come back. Google introduces AI mode.

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Speaker 21 Scott, we're back. Google has announced it will roll out its AI mode.

Speaker 21 Sounds so scary. A new search feature which will function like a chat bot to all users in the U.S.

Speaker 21 The feature will include personalized and automated email replies, can automatically purchase items when they're on sale, and with a new addition can click around the web for you, like to book travel.

Speaker 21 This is the idea behind all this stuff. For now, AI mode will just appear as an option inside of Google search.

Speaker 21 However, the group of the biggest news publishers in the U.S. expressed disapproval in a statement on Wednesday saying the new feature deprives publishers of traffic and revenue.
No shit.

Speaker 21 An internal document disclosing Google's antitrust trial this week revealed that the company decided against making publishers, asking publishers for permission to have their work featured in AI search features.

Speaker 21 Talk a little bit about AI mode. I mean, again, they've got to, this is, they've got to fight back because they sort of are.
have the poll position being the leader in search.

Speaker 21 They should be dominating this, and they're certainly not, although they've certainly got a lot of power. So talk about, would you use AI mode to replace your other apps?

Speaker 21 I find myself using Google a lot less than a lot more in my experience. And I'm shifting over to Chat GPT and whatever's on Apple.

Speaker 21 And I sell, I guess I'm just about to shift from Google Maps to Apple Maps because they've gotten as good, for example. So thoughts?

Speaker 20 Well, the metaphor I use is that Google is big box, everything at the lowest price, but there's some decision calorie expenditure. You have to decide which of the 45 brands of peanut butter you want.

Speaker 20 Whereas

Speaker 20 AI is specially retail and says, we're not going to give you every answer. We're just going to give you the three best toasters or the one best.
And that's specially retail.

Speaker 20 I think there's room for both, but specialty retail took market capitalization away from big box. And I think that's going to happen here.

Speaker 20 Having said that, I actually like the chat-like interface with Google search. I use it.
I find it's now at the top.

Speaker 20 They're integrating it into search and they're saying, look, if you want to go down the aisle and pick out which of the 100 toasters is fine, but we're doing doing like similar to what AI does, we're trying to at least start with what we think is the best toaster or the best answer.

Speaker 20 I also, one of my predictions in October for 2025 was I called it the Empire Strikes Back.

Speaker 20 I think Alphabet is about to strike back. And I think still the largest concentration of IQ and even IQ related to AI is in fact at Alphabet.

Speaker 20 And also the scale they have is

Speaker 20 the scale they have. So just one piece of data here.
There are 373 times more queries on Google than on OpenAI right now.

Speaker 20 Now, granted, their search has declined, but I still think that Alphabet with their

Speaker 20 IP, their IQ, their capital, and the interface they have

Speaker 20 is still, I just, I think it would be very dangerous to count Alphabet out.

Speaker 20 And I believe that Alphabet's market cap will go up and I think OpenAI is going to go down.

Speaker 20 And when I saw that product release yesterday of the different things, their, you know, their AI mode, the chat-like interface,

Speaker 20 I think that I thought I was blown away by that for that those product releases yesterday. I think it's really incredible what they're doing.
Yeah.

Speaker 21 So did they not get stepped on?

Speaker 20 How do you look at that? Oh, from a PR standpoint, they lost.

Speaker 20 I mean, one guy, Johnny Ive in a six and a half billion dollar acquisition is the bigger news today. They released so much stuff that I think a lot of the stuff kind of stepped on each other.

Speaker 20 I would have paced it out and had a series of product releases, but some of the things like basically putting a movie studio on your phone, some of the

Speaker 20 stuff that feels like mid-journey, but better. It just, some of the stuff they announced yesterday, I felt like I needed a few hours to really digest and understand.

Speaker 20 But I just got the sense they have all of a sudden that they got the memo that they're behind and they need to catch up.

Speaker 20 And I think the distance between that they're lagging OpenAI substantially narrowed yesterday is how I

Speaker 21 did you see it and what did you think about it I think OpenAI's principal competitor is Google. That's it.
That's it.

Speaker 21 I don't I don't meta from the outside with the open stuff and there'll certainly a player but if I had the top three are those three absolutely.

Speaker 21 I did see it and I do use I think what I like about Google search and I still I still use it. I'm just using it less just slightly less.

Speaker 21 I can I feel my patterns right because I went Google was the go-to period, and now it's not the go-to period. But I do like when you search for something, the questions they add, like,

Speaker 21 it anticipates your next question of why this is this, um, and why this is this. And so, I like that.
I think, I think search is a lot more use searchable and useful.

Speaker 21 And I never go down below the first six inches, right, of the whole thing. I, they usually get my answer to me pretty quickly.

Speaker 21 Um, and so that's that's great, except for everyone else below the line, right?

Speaker 21 They are deploying it well. They still, still have a problem with design.
You know, I always thought this was Apple's to lose in terms of delivering.

Speaker 21 Apple, I don't think, is doing anything that's really fantastic in terms of AI deployed to help me through my day. I think ChatPT GPT is much more helpful.

Speaker 21 And I think they're kludgy too. I think they're all kludy.
So we'll see. I think obviously Google's, I think you're absolutely right.
It's the Empire Strikes Back and they have to.

Speaker 21 And so they have to get more dynamic, I suspect. Anyway,

Speaker 21 let's move on to the last thing. Democrats still want a Joe Rogan, Scott.

Speaker 21 Since their loss in November, donor retreats and pitch documents have been full of asks for rich backers to contribute to the party's efforts to develop an army of influencers.

Speaker 21 Efforts include American Bridge, one of the largest Democratic donor networks, which has launched a plan for a nonprofit called Achieve Narrative Dominance and aims to have a budget of over $70 million.

Speaker 21 Project Echo, a new four-year, $52 million influencer program from the progressive nonprofit American Way, and several other smaller projects looking to amplify left-leaning influencers.

Speaker 21 I'm just looking at the top charts. I'm just using podcasts because there's lots of ways to influence on all the different platforms.
But actually, Joe Rogan's dropped rather considerably.

Speaker 21 He's now down at six.

Speaker 21 I think left-wing ones or left or softer ones are near the top. Good Hang with Amy Poehler is really burning the charts these days.
The Daily is still up there.

Speaker 21 Obviously, Megan Kelly is still up there, but I got to say, a lot, it's not so much a right-dominated thing. Tucker Carlson's up near the top, but so is Michelle Obama right next to him.

Speaker 21 Midas Touch is right there, along with things like Diary of a CEO, you know, more, or the crime ones, they're up to the top.

Speaker 21 So, you know, I feel like it's a mixed bag these days on a lot of these shows.

Speaker 21 I don't know. What do you think? Should they try to do this? It seems kind of silly.
It's sort of like making fetch happen.

Speaker 20 I do think they dominate. There's been some.

Speaker 21 Pivot is 76, just so you know, in the world. What is?

Speaker 20 Pivot. We're 76 in the world.
Yeah.

Speaker 21 Yeah. One top 100.
We're in the top 100.

Speaker 20 Watch out, 75.

Speaker 21 We're higher than Charlie Kirk.

Speaker 20 Well, here's the thing. When you're a Democratic, we're seen as center left to crazy left.

Speaker 20 I won't say who's who.

Speaker 21 You've become much more liberal. We have.

Speaker 20 I like that you said I'm a San Francisco lesbian.

Speaker 21 Anyways. Prof G is 87.
I'm just sorry. Go ahead.

Speaker 20 And Prof G is 87. I love that you threw that in.

Speaker 23 Just say it. Oh my God.

Speaker 20 That's such a Karis Fisher thing. Oh, by the way.

Speaker 21 Or higher than all in. Too bad, boys.
You BFFs or whatever you call yourselves.

Speaker 20 But we get, I mean, in terms of, I'm focused on money versus rankings.

Speaker 20 The Democratic podcasts get a much higher CPM because the bottom line is Democrats listening to podcasts have more money than some of the Republicans listening to these podcasts.

Speaker 20 I do still think they dominate. Occasionally stuff is breaking through, like the Midas Touch came out of nowhere into the top five.

Speaker 20 But a lot of the top podcasts, like Stephen Bartlett is pretty much the middle of the road. He tries to be apolitical.
I think he's going to replace Joe Rogan.

Speaker 20 And I'm, I, Joe Rogan, I kind of feel like we should all send Joe a royalty because he kind of busted open the medium.

Speaker 20 I still think he's number one on most accounts, if you really are honest over the medium in the long term. Mel Robbins, who's broken through, but she's not, she's not political.

Speaker 20 And, but there's megan does a great job in podcasts in terms of her viewership tucker's right at the top it still pretty is it still really is very right now what the republican party does really well is the synchronicity between the think tanks their media their podcasters and their candidates the democrats war within each other i mean if you think about even there were four parties

Speaker 20 just a few years ago. There was the kind of George Bush, Mitt Romney Republicans, and MAGA.
And And then there's the Bernie AOC side of the Democratic Party and kind of the more moderate side.

Speaker 20 The right has consolidated around MAGA. The Romney, McCain, Bush Republicans are gone.
They've been cast into the wilderness.

Speaker 20 And to a certain extent, that's an advantage because they're all on the same page from a messaging standpoint and all speak to the same talking points. I don't think it's good for America.

Speaker 20 Whereas the Democrats, we're still roaring with each other. We're still saying, oh, you're my ally, but I don't like the way you're holding the gun.

Speaker 20 And we're spending a lot of time, you know, getting angry at Jake Tapper as opposed to saying, okay, let's focus on the fact that the biggest grift in history is taking place.

Speaker 20 So,

Speaker 20 what I've thought about doing and have talked to some podcasters about is as we go into 26, I want to be more coordinated around organizing with other kind of what I'll call like-minded podcasts, because I do think podcasts are increasing their influence.

Speaker 20 And I've said that I think our revenues in podcasting are going to grow dramatically because I think political candidates are going to start transferring money from local news stations to podcasts based on Trump's genius move to go right into podcasting.

Speaker 20 But I think the left needs to be much more organized.

Speaker 21 Yes, this is what I talked to you about, this idea of creating a consolidated idea about six months ago, this idea of bringing us all together where we trade podcasts.

Speaker 20 The right does this beautifully promote each other, highlight great candidates,

Speaker 20 maybe, maybe even circulate certain data that's super interesting that people aren't focused on. But everyone, I'd like to see everyone from kind of the smartless guys to crooked media.

Speaker 20 You know, these guys are so smart. Let's just be a little bit more.

Speaker 21 I don't think we're, the problem is I don't think the left moves in lockstep in the same way. Exactly.
They aren't house organs, right?

Speaker 21 And so when I was, I was talking to some rich people into doing this about six months ago, this idea, but it's really hard. What you have to do is more.

Speaker 21 push each other. You know, we've had, I've had Julie Louise Dreyfus and our thing.
We're going to do, we're going to do some things with crooked, I hope,

Speaker 21 where we trade and push each other. The problem is we don't coordinate with the Trump administration or whoever the Democrat, in our case, whoever the Democratic administration.

Speaker 21 We're not going to go, all right, Pete, what do you want us to do today? The way the Trump people do with Fox News.

Speaker 20 No, an autocracy is very efficient.

Speaker 21 Right.

Speaker 20 And I think that there's a certain

Speaker 20 I think there's a certain elegance to once you get, I think our messaging has to be more on point and more coordinated.

Speaker 20 And we have to do a better job of building each other up and highlighting Richie Torres or Wes Moore or Josh Shapiro or Gretchen Whitmer or whoever it is.

Speaker 20 And start and also highlighting the fact that, okay, while you were sleeping, you know, there was a million and a half dollar per day.

Speaker 20 I mean, just some of the grift that we're constantly seeing.

Speaker 21 You did very, one of our most popular social things was Scott listing all the grift like in the list. It was really pop just to bring it together.

Speaker 20 Well, but there's, there's all sorts of great talking points.

Speaker 20 He did a trip to the Middle East, but the two biggest economies in the Middle East, or the three biggest, are Turkey, Israel, or Turkey, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and Israel.

Speaker 20 And he avoided Turkey and Israel because they're democracies and they wouldn't figure, they could not give him grift.

Speaker 20 Even Turkey couldn't give him a 747. There's no fucking way Israel would bribe him or his sons.
So he skipped those countries. He went to the countries where

Speaker 20 the supreme ruler was willing to give them

Speaker 20 a billion-dollar golf course, a multi-hundred million dollar Trump tower, or a 747.

Speaker 21 He seems to have accepted it.

Speaker 20 That's what he picked up in those three countries. You know what he would have picked up in Israel? He would have picked up a trip to the border

Speaker 20 of the Gaza border, which he's not interested in. He's actually not interested in actual defense.

Speaker 21 Right. Or saving anybody there.

Speaker 21 Or settling anything there. One of the things that was pretty heinous yesterday, it was a joke.
As you're noting this, the head of South Africa made a joke.

Speaker 21 I don't have a plane to give you. And then Trump goes, well, I'd take it if you did.
Oh, my God. And by the way, that was, he was spewing right-wing conspiracy stuff.

Speaker 20 If there's a genocide against white people?

Speaker 21 For the wrong country. It was for Congo.
And even his conspiracy theories were inaccurate. Like, it was just full of nonsense.
That was a white.

Speaker 21 And by the way, guess who I blame for that? Some, a famous South African who was one of his advisors.

Speaker 20 Yeah, there you go.

Speaker 21 But anyway, you're right. You're absolutely right.
I don't think we have to create a Joe Rogan. That's not what we want.
I mean, you could say Jon Stewart sometimes or John Oliver.

Speaker 21 They're all over the place. We have to create, to me,

Speaker 21 a 360 on every single social platform where we're not necessarily coordinating. I think you can't make fetch happen with the left.
You can't.

Speaker 21 But we're really giving messages and drilling in, as Scott said, on Grift, on give messages of hope and give messages of these guys are crooks over and over and over again.

Speaker 21 But coordination is not really a left thing to do.

Speaker 20 The way I presented it to the people I'm speaking to is that bad CMOs get a directive from the CEO and take budget from the brands and then impose a series of guidelines around, I want this type of advertising for this brand.

Speaker 20 And ultimately they get fired because all the power is with the people making the money at the individual brands. They start to resent the CMO and he or she gets fired.

Speaker 20 Good CMOs become a center of excellence and basically shared services where they say, I've done a bunch of work on media effectiveness.

Speaker 20 And if any of the brands want to come to me, I will provide you with this data. That's right.

Speaker 20 I think we need to be, we need a group of people that says, we have some amazing candidates that are available for interviews. Up to you.
Here they are. And we can make it seamless and easy for you.

Speaker 20 Every day, we're going to send out a series of talking points and data that you may choose or may not choose to highlight in your stories.

Speaker 15 By the way, Smartless.

Speaker 20 Pivot would like to promote you and promote certain episodes. Would you be interested in reciprocal deals to promote them? And we're also going to promote the Midas touch.
Would you like to be part?

Speaker 20 I'll opt-in. Would you like to be part of a consortium that helps build each other's audience? So, share almost like just a shared services where it becomes a pull as opposed to a push.

Speaker 20 But us lecturing at them, saying, Oh, you need to highlight this or talk this way, these people are going to stick up the middle finger. These people have their own businesses to run.

Speaker 21 Yep, exactly. That's the problem.
That's the problem. All right, one more quick break, and we'll be back for predictions.

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Speaker 21 Okay, Scott, let's hear a prediction.

Speaker 20 Okay, so

Speaker 20 my prediction is that this goes back to a prediction I made in October of last year.

Speaker 20 And my prediction is the Empire Strikes Back. And I just want to be clear, my financial advice to anyone, especially a young person, is hope you go double platinum or sell your company.

Speaker 20 But just in case you don't, save 3% to 5% of your salary in a tax advantage vehicle in low-cost, diversified index funds, not only in the U.S., but across the world.

Speaker 20 And by the time you're my age, even if you haven't gone double platinum or sold your business, you're going to be fine.

Speaker 20 And try to resist the temptation of believing you're smarter than everyone else and do stock picking and limit that to 20 or 30%.

Speaker 20 And I do think it's worthwhile to take some of your money and do stuff because it forces you to learn about the market. And also, quite frankly, it's fun.
Anyways, that's my big asterisk here.

Speaker 20 Having said that, my prediction is that Alphabet is going to outperform the market. And if you look at Alphabet right now, they have so many incredible businesses.

Speaker 20 So the Google Cloud is basically a $43 billion business going to 50.

Speaker 20 And if you put the same multiple on that business that Oracle gets, you get about a $400 billion, a company worth about $400 billion.

Speaker 20 YouTube, which is essentially the biggest streamer in the world, it does $54 billion in business. If you apply that Netflix multiple, you get a $650 billion, so at $1.1 trillion.

Speaker 20 Waymo, in my opinion, let's not even count that, but I still think, I think that's worth a lot of money. I think the autonomous war is about to break out and the leader is going to be Waymo.

Speaker 20 And if they spend that out, I think that'll get a huge valuation.

Speaker 20 So essentially, what you have is at the most conservative level, Google is being valued at about 800 billion to a trillion or four to five times revenues.

Speaker 20 And Chipotle and Coca-Cola trade at six times sales. So, you know, Kava trades at 10 times sales.
So

Speaker 20 a $200 billion tech business that grew at 13% last year does not deserve a lower multiple than Coca-Cola, a mature food and beverage firm with less than $50 billion in revenue that grew 3%.

Speaker 20 So if you do a sum of the parts analysis, it's undervalued. So the question is, well, why is it undervalued? And the two reasons I think are one,

Speaker 20 The existential threat posed by OpenAI, which is a threat, but I think it's been overestimated.

Speaker 20 And two, the likelihood of antitrust and a breakup, which I believe would actually be accretive to shareholders if they were forced to spend some of these companies because they would be unlocked from this conglomerate tax that the company is paying right now.

Speaker 20 And my final point here is that right now, Google trades at a PE of 19. The SP 500 with its drawdowns trades at 24.
So take an average company in the S P, a PNG or a Dow.

Speaker 20 Like, I don't know what company sort of embodies the S P, but those are both great companies.

Speaker 20 But any average, quote unquote, average company in the SP is not nearly as impressive, isn't growing nearly as fast, doesn't have nearly the margins of an alphabet. All right.

Speaker 21 Sundar, Pichai, thanks you.

Speaker 20 But go ahead.

Speaker 20 Well, I really think this company of all of the big tech right now is the most undervalued, and it's being overly punished because of this existential threat of open AI and the notion of antitrust.

Speaker 20 One, I think is overstated. I think they are absolutely striking back in terms of AI.
And two, I think antitrust

Speaker 20 if the law was passed and they had to spend something would actually be accretive to shareholders. There is no reason.

Speaker 20 Alphabet, at the end of the day, is a much more impressive company than your average SP company. And yet it's trading at 18 or 19 versus 25.

Speaker 20 And it's traded at an average of 26 over the last five years. And even this year, even with its bump up yesterday, it's down 12% year to date.

Speaker 20 This is an impressive company that some I think is undervalued.

Speaker 21 So interestingly, because Sudapachai is sort of never mentioned, you know, you give Satcha lots of props. He's kind of a plotter.
I know him very well.

Speaker 21 I've known him since he was a young product manager on a bunch of stuff at Google. He's kind of a plotter.
He's always thought of as doesn't make decisions fast enough.

Speaker 21 He certainly isn't a hand waver about himself. You know, he's quite, he's just a nice guy.
He's just a really nice guy. So he doesn't get the kind of props.
And you're right.

Speaker 21 It's a difficult company to tell the story of because there's so many parts of it. So that's an interesting prediction.
I think that's interesting. But I will note, I use Google a lot less than I did.

Speaker 21 I don't know why, but you're right. They really, it's theirs to lose in many ways.
But it's good they have competitors.

Speaker 20 Let me bring in a totally unrelated topic. Okay.

Speaker 20 So, Cinder Pachai and Satya Nadala, two guys who've created unbelievable market cap, hundreds of thousands of high-paying jobs, incredible ecosystem, incredible shareholder value.

Speaker 20 Cinder is from Majorai India, and Satya is from Hyderabad, India. The fact that we are not

Speaker 20 saying to every Indian

Speaker 20 golden visa for anyone, I can tell you, and I'm being a racist here. I think the Indian population that immigrates to America is some of the most accretive positive human capital flow in history.

Speaker 20 Walk around the halls of Stern.

Speaker 20 These Indian Americans, these people who decided to get, who are literally the 0.01% and got to IIT and then decided of all their options to come to America, they are a gift to America.

Speaker 21 At one point,

Speaker 21 the head of Microsoft, Sundar, was a name that was floated as the head of Microsoft also because he hadn't gotten the CEO of Google job.

Speaker 21 But yes, they're both really remarkable citizens of the United States and also immigrants.

Speaker 21 You know, I've had lots of really interesting discussions with Sundar about the anti-immigration, Trump stuff, but he's a quiet leader.

Speaker 23 Well, I think he'll probably, you're right.

Speaker 21 It's there. So is that a really interesting prediction? My prediction is that at 10 o'clock tonight, Kara Swish will be so happy because she's watching.

Speaker 20 Oh, you're going to, I'm curious. You got got to text me and tell me what you think.

Speaker 21 I'll text you at 2 in the morning because it's the three-hour movie. Anyway, because it'll be like a half an hour of previews, I'm sure.
Anyway, I'm so excited.

Speaker 21 I bought the popcorn in advance and the drink, and I'm very excited to watch Mission Impossible Final Reckoning.

Speaker 21 Anyway, I feel like an ad for them, but I don't care. I love that movie.
Anyway, I love the series. Anyway, we want to hear from you.

Speaker 21 Send us your questions about business tech or whatever's on your mind. Go to nymag.com/slash pivot to submit a question for the show or call 855-51-PIVOT.

Speaker 21 Okay, that's the show. Thanks for listening to Pivot.
Be sure to like and subscribe to our YouTube channel, which is growing handily.

Speaker 21 Scott, we're actually dark next Tuesday for Memorial Day, but we'll have a great episode of stay tuned with Preet in our feed. We'll be back next Friday.

Speaker 20 Today's show is produced by Lauren Amon, Zoe Marcus, Taylor Griffin, Kevin Oliver, and Corinne Ruff. Ernie Intertod engineered this episode.

Speaker 20 Thanks also to Drew Burroughs, Miss Averio, Dan Shallon, and Kate Gallagher. Mishak Kurua is Vox Media's executive producer of podcasts.
Make sure to follow Pivot on your favorite podcast platform.

Speaker 20 Thanks for listening to Pivot from New Yorker Magazine and Vox Media. You can subscribe to the magazine at nymag.com slash pod.

Speaker 20 We'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things tech and business.

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