2024 Predictions on AI, The Election, X's Future and More

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Hi, everyone.

This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network.

I'm Kara Swisher.

And I'm Scott Galloway.

Scott, it's our annual end of year predictions episode where we look into our crystal balls and make our best guesses about what we think will happen in the coming year, which is 2024.

And we get a little help from some friends of Pivot who will give us their best predictions on what to expect in AI, media, politics, and more in 2024.

As a reminder, in last year's predictions episode, you predicted that we'd hit peak personal genius.

But 2023 is going to be just as whatever, the metaverse or crypto, 2023 is going to be the year of AI.

I think we've hit peak personal genius.

I think we're going to see a lot of orange jumpsuits next year.

I think Sam Bakeman-Fried was kind of, I said this around Adam Newman and I was wrong, but I think there's going to be real pushback on this notion that individuals are more important than institutions.

I think people are just finally hit their breaking point.

This year, we were on the money with predictions about activist investors, Chris Lick's departure from CNN, Amazon's downsizing of Alexa, and of course, our controversial predictions on the writers and actors' strikes.

Also, I'll add that I called Linda Yakuruno getting named CEO of Twitter, but she might be wishing I hadn't.

And my Spidey Sense told me that we learned some sketchy things about the Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, which we have.

So let's see what 2024 will bring.

To start things off, here's a prediction from Matt Bellany of Puck.

Let's listen.

Hi, Karen Scott.

It's Matt Bellany from Puck and the Town podcast.

And I figured I would make a box office prediction because I know, Kara, you love going to the movies.

We had a lovely time.

We saw Mission Impossible together this summer.

Next year, 2024, the box office is going to be down.

And it's because of the strikes.

Hollywood still has not recovered from COVID in theaters, and the strike was just absolutely debilitating for next year.

This year is probably going to be down about 20%

from 2019.

My prediction is next year is going to be down even more than 2023.

And that is going to spell doom for a lot of these theater chains.

I don't think the big ones like AMC or Regal will go into bankruptcy, but the smaller smaller theater chains are in real trouble.

It doesn't mean there won't be hits.

There's going to be big movies next year.

There's Inside Out 2, Sonic the Hedgehog 3.

There's another Mad Max.

Dune is now in 2024, previously scheduled for this year.

But it's all about volume.

These theaters need a steady pipeline of Hollywood movies to, you know, make the money that they make, that they need to stay in business.

And it's just not going to happen at the same level because we've had six months of production pauses and all these movies are being pushed.

Marvel, DC, everything is in disarray.

So my prediction is 2024 is going to be a very bleak year at the box office and there's going to be lots of ramifications.

All right.

That's a good one, especially coming from him because he and I have had this argument about the death of movie theaters.

He's thought they had much more staying power.

This is a big prediction from him.

And I think he's 100% right, Scott.

Like the best thing that can happen to you in a business is success.

The second best thing is it fails fast.

And unfortunately, for Hollywood and LA-based media, it's going to fail slowly for the next 20 years.

And that is there will be Barbie and Oppenheimer summers that have a glimmer of hope,

but over time, the regression line is going to be, is going to be down into the right.

I remember when I was a kid, I would sneak out of school early to go see a movie

ever.

If I ever had a date, it was

a movie.

I saw The Empire Strikes Back five times in a movie theater.

And I think just consumer habits have just changed so dramatically that you know what they're, you know, it's really weird where they're going.

Like, they're doing like these little artisanal theaters.

Yeah.

But those are fine.

It's not going to support the business.

I wonder.

It was an interesting story in the journal about Fathom, which does events like opera, or they're doing all kinds of things.

They're replaying like dirty dancing.

You might want to see that in the theater, right?

Those are small little good ideas for these theaters, like to do those kind of things.

But it's not going to save this market.

I actually did go see Mission Impossible with Matt, but I wanted to see that in the theater, but they're few and far between.

And I now will only go to theaters that have reclining seats.

Do you love reclining seats?

I love a reclining seat.

I pick.

It's amazing.

I do.

One of the key things is my kids don't go to theaters.

They just don't.

They just really, they used to.

But

if you're trying to,

let's think, okay, how do you gain insight into where you should allocate your finite financial and human capital?

And I think a decent proxy is: does the business, if it's in the media or entertainment business, where does it make its money?

And you want to find and invest in media companies that make their money based on how small the screen is.

If they make their money or they get a lot of their income from a really big screen called a movie theater, don't get near it.

If they make it on a smaller screen that's still quite big, called a television, again, avoid it.

But if they make their money off of putting data on a small, small screen called a phone,

that's your bingo card.

All right.

All right.

There you go.

Good, good prediction.

We don't think you went too far on him, but you're right.

That strike did hurt it very badly, no matter how you slice that.

Okay, Scott, let's get to a prediction from our friend Bill Cohen, one of my favorite people.

Hi, Karen Scott.

It's William D.

Cohen here,

best-selling author and founding partner of Puck and friend of Pivot,

a delightfully happy friend of Pivot.

So my prediction for 2024

is that

finally, the Twitter X debt will be sold by the eight banks that have been holding on to it for more than a year.

It'll be sold at a discount of around 50 or 60 cents on the dollar.

It'll fall into the wrong hands because Elon Musk will not do what he should do, which is buy the debt at a discount from the banks.

But he won't do that.

And it will fall into the hands of vulture investors, distressed investors, who will then rattle his cage endlessly for the next year or so until they take control of Twitter X away from Elon Musk because it's basically can't pay its debts as they become due.

It's a struggling financial disaster as we know it to be, and companies like IBM have stopped advertising in the platform.

He will lose control of Twitter X, and he will have flushed $44 billion,

$24 billion of which was his own money down the tubes.

One other tangential prediction for 2024 is that the Boston Red Sox, under their new GM, Craig Breslow, and I have to disclose that I'm a friend of John Henry, the owner of the Red Sox,

will go from worst to first,

will become the winners of the American League East in 2024.

Happy 2024, Kara and Scott.

I love you both.

Bye.

How much we love Bill Cohen.

We love Bill Cohen.

He's the best, isn't he?

He really is.

What an unsome.

What a smart thinker he is.

I don't always agree with him, but we really do.

Let's stop praising Bill Khan for a second, though.

This is a good prediction.

Yeah, okay, hold on.

Let's just press pause.

A prediction saying that movie theaters will decline in revenue.

Okay, that's a prediction whose testicles have not descended.

Sorry, Matt.

That's okay.

Wow.

You're really going out on a limb there, man.

Don't be mean to me.

And then Bill shows up with testicles the size of Mars and says, Twitter debt is going to be cured.

It's going to be purchased by people who are going to bump Elon Musk into bankruptcy and take over Twitter.

That's a prediction.

Right or wrong, the key to predictions is not being right.

It's inspiring or catalyzing a conversation.

Anyways, I like that prediction a lot, whether it's right or wrong.

All right.

It probably won't happen, though.

Okay, why?

Tell me why.

All right.

Well, here's what the banks are doing.

Banks, and I'm parroting Bill.

He has a great banks are not in the storage business, they're in the moving business.

So the fact they have held on to this debt because they got caught in an interest rate environment that was accelerating.

So all of a sudden, they underwrote $12 billion of the debt.

Overnight, it's worth $10 or $9, then $8, and $7.

And the last thing they want to do is once they sell it, they have to recognize that loss on an earnings call.

And so they keep hoping, and this is the game they're playing.

They keep hoping that Elon is going to show up and say, Elon has done the math here.

He knows that the scenario Bill just outlined is a real possibility.

And so the banks are hoping that Elon shows up and says, okay, I'll give you 60 cents on the dollar.

And the banks go, no, we're just going to let it out on the private market, Elon.

And who knows who's going to end up with this debt?

And they're hoping he's going to show up and overpay for it such that he doesn't have vultures pecking at his liver over the next 12 months in terms of distressed investors.

If he doesn't show up, he's right.

But I don't think it'll go into bankruptcy.

Elon Musk has so much money with an impending IPO of Starlink, he would be able to make these interest payments in his sleep.

And so as long as he makes the interest payments, he can pretty much ignore them.

Yep.

Yep.

I don't know who'll buy them.

I think he's right.

The banks will offload this debt this year.

It's taken a long time for them to do it.

Question is, will he buy it?

And will he get together a group of people who will give him more money to buy the debt?

It's not that much money.

I guess if it's 13, it'd be 5 billion.

I bet he could come up with that with his friends, him and his friends.

I don't think his friends, I think his friends have been so burned.

They've paid such an enormous Elon tax.

Well, he could come up with the money.

I think he'll end up buying.

Yeah, he has the money.

He has the money.

Okay, Scott, now we have a prediction from Jen Saki.

Let's listen.

Hi, Scott and Carrot.

Jen Saki.

So I know you guys are asking for predictions for 2024.

Predictions are always hard.

That's why you're asking for them.

Here's mine.

I think people always undervalue, are still undervaluing the impact of abortion rights and the impact it could have for the Democrats on the ballot next year.

And one of the smartest things that we should, everybody should learn from for next year is the fact that on these states where there were ballot initiatives, there was big turnout.

So my prediction is that abortion is going to be a bigger factor than most people are betting on.

And the states that are smart enough to have abortion ballot initiatives are going to have higher turnout than other states.

Ooh, Sakatumi.

I think she's right.

I think it's an enduring issue with women particularly, but I think young people, and I think it still sticks in the craw of

everybody, what happened with Roe v.

Wade, and they're worried about it.

I think that's probably a very safe thing.

And it's been a really winning issue for Democrats.

And the Republicans are all over the place on this issue.

Only Nikki Haley has a pretty good answer.

The rest of them seem out of touch and confusing.

Scott?

It feels like it's already come to the fold.

I mean, if you look at the elections around the nation, it's been a huge factor.

And what's interesting is it feels like the ultimate self-inflicted wound across Republicans.

And that is, I just read an article saying that abortions are actually up since Roe v.

Wade was struck down.

And at the same time, they're losing elections because this issue is obviously very important to people.

So it feels like it was a kind of an unforced error on the part of,

I guess it's the Supreme Court, not Republicans, but

Republicans can't answer.

You know, they sort of go.

I interviewed Liz Chanik, and I, you know, I was like, let's, because she was thinking of running.

And so I said, let's talk about something, let's remind people who you are.

And when I asked her about all kinds of issues, but then I got to abortion and she couldn't answer.

She just was like, well, I, you know, empathy and

they don't want want to answer.

And she just couldn't, though.

It was fascinating.

And I have to say, she's as sharp as a tech.

She's very controlled.

And every answer is full paragraphs.

She was wandering all over the place because they don't know what to say because they know it's a loser.

I think just Nikki Haley is the only one who's had the most cogent answer, which gives her strength, I think.

Speaking of which, If Nikki Haley were to become president, that would hands down be the watershed moment for the Republican Party of the last 50 years.

It could be.

Think about after all the accusations of the Democratic Party, you know, seeing everything through the lens of identity politics and being sponsors or advocates for the Me Too movement and kicking senators out for, you know, playing grab ass at fairs, and then they're the ones that elect the first female president.

That would, oh my gosh, that from a brand move, if the Republicans were just thinking about what's good for the party for the next 10 years.

They're not thinking about that.

But still, I'm just saying, theoretically,

it'd be hard to imagine anything that would do more for the Republican Party brand than if they were the ones that elected the first female president.

Yeah, absolutely.

I agree with you.

But she unfortunately just keeps wandering down weird highways that she needs to go down to get that nomination, which she's not going to get.

Anyway, let's go on a quick break.

When we come back, we'll hear from some more friends of Pivot and make our own predictions.

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Okay, Scott, now we have a prediction on AI from Dr.

Joy Bulumwini.

Let's listen.

Hi, Karen Scott.

This is Dr.

Joy Bulumwini, the founder of the Algorithmic Justice League and the author of Unmasking AI, my mission to protect what is human in a world of machines.

My prediction for AI in 2024 is that companies adopting AI systems that have been built on data taken without consent and compensation will face a growing number of class action lawsuits, and that companies concerned about the climate impact of training AI systems will start exploring green AI pipelines.

Ooh, that's interesting.

That last one.

I wonder what a green AI pipeline is.

Because, you know, it's kind of similar to Bitcoin.

I was just thinking though.

Yeah, I hadn't thought of that.

The huge compute.

That's one of the issues with why the big companies are so involved here is because the compute is so massive.

I think she's right about lawsuits.

I mean, this is where it's been going.

And they've just been dragging information that they don't have rights to, and they're going to pay this time.

Yeah, agreed.

I wonder if they have the money, though, to strike a deal

with something that's tantamount to what the record labels have done with some sort of omnibus rights organization that

does big deals with big media companies.

The biggest media companies, I mean, fortunately for them, it wouldn't be that, it might be expensive, but it wouldn't be that difficult because media has been so consolidated

that if you did deals with, say, 20 or 30 organizations, you might have 80 or 90 percent of the content that people

want crowdsourced.

You know, just people know Google just recently

is paying Canada.

They're sort of getting out of that fight over compensation.

I think they'll just pay up now.

I think they've decided it's just easier to do that than face these lawsuits.

I ran into at a party I was just recently at is the guy who's head of content at Open AI.

He strikes deals with media companies.

They did the AP deal, obviously.

And I think you're going to see more of that.

And as Barry Diller, he controls, I think it's Scripps.

He's going to use the legal system because there's no laws in place.

And that's what he's going to do.

And that's what's going to him and others are going to do that.

And individuals like Sarah Silberman, it's just inevitable that it's going to become class action.

The green AI pipelines is true.

And also the cost of doing a lot of this AI is going to be massive.

What I do think will happen, though, in contrast with Bitcoin, which I have never understood the fact that we, I mean, Bitcoin's electricity consumption is equivalent to the electricity consumption of Argentina.

Yeah.

The cost to mine Bitcoin.

And I think, okay, a manufacturer.

I mean, talk about an energy consumption disaster or

what's the term, pool that just we dug ourselves.

It didn't need to be dug.

It's never made any sense to me.

And then the crypto Taliban claims that, well, actually it's financing the marginal source of alternative energy because a lot of Bitcoin miners are placing them near

wind and solar, which I always thought was total bullshit.

Anyway, I don't think this will be as big an issue because the companies that are biggest in this are so heavily scrutinized.

and have so much capital that they will be able to put these server farms or whatever they're going to need near hydro facilities.

I think this will be the greenest consumption of incremental power.

I think these companies will get that right.

Okay.

Yeah.

They're near.

They're not just solar.

It's solar or hydro.

They're not going to be excavating new coal mines.

Yeah.

Yep.

Agreed.

Agreed.

Okay, Scott, now let's hear a prediction from Dr.

Feifei Lee.

Hi, Tara and Scott.

This is Feifei Lee.

I'm a Sequoia Professor of Computer Science at Stanford, then in co-director of Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI and the author of the book The Worlds I See.

My prediction for AI in 2024 is that the technology will continue to deepen and widen with a very impressive speed.

We're going to see more multimodal large models beyond language into the domain of perception and world modeling.

And we will

also see AI continue to create a lot of discussion among the public and policy makers as we experience the messy impact of AI in our society, in our industry.

Thank you.

Well, the last part's obvious, I think.

And

she's at the

Center for Human-Centered AI, which has always been her push.

The point she's making about beyond language of perception and world modeling is really important.

Again, another thing I heard recently on some visits to a lot of tech people, this idea of what it could do beyond just, you know, give me what Scott would say if he was singing a rap, you know what I mean?

That kind of stuff.

But it's this world modeling of the way the world is and is a very big thing.

And this is where I think you and I have talked about where we're really going and where the real benefits of AI are is the ability to take all this data and really begin to model things that humans can't do because of their ability.

And then also to perceive things, pictures, photographs, and not just say what they are, but to understand and think, become like a brain.

And I think she's talking about something very important here beyond these just models of data, of these language models.

I just couldn't get past the fact that money has infected higher education.

Did you see how she introduced her?

Sequoia, yeah, that's what she is.

I'm the Sequoia professor of computer.

She's a legend.

Do not insult me.

She She has to do it.

I'm not insulting her.

I'm insulting the game.

And by the way, I'm here to announce that I'm now the new Cialis Professor of Marketing.

You wish.

I mean, forgot that.

You wish.

That's what they do.

That's what they've said.

We'll only give you this money if

Professor Lee will, every time she introduces herself, say she's the Sequoia Professor of Computer Science at Stanford.

Let me read you the first sentence of my new book coming out in February.

So it was capitalism after all.

Go ahead.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Actually, Times First of the Year should have been money.

This is the year where money literally won everything.

Although not as much.

This has been the least productive legislative session in history.

And as a result, you have money taking over the patient.

Let's actually go to what she said.

She's a very famous and revered AI researcher.

I think she's...

Everything I've read of her, she's very thoughtful.

I think this was a big nothing burger.

But anyways, go ahead.

Anything?

I don't know what she said here that's not obvious.

You don't know.

The world modeling thing is a big deal.

Everyone is talking about the language models.

You're not smart enough to understand what you just said.

I'm not.

I'm not.

I don't know her.

I'm sure she's wonderful.

She's a pioneering AI.

You're going to get in trouble for this, and you're going to deserve every bit of it.

I'm sure she's great.

I'm thrilled she's decided to partner with those really good folks at Sequoia.

Oh, my God.

Have you invested with Sequoia?

I have.

Aha.

Okay, then.

So now we know

who is who.

Okay, just want to make sure about that.

They backed me three times, Kara.

This is the gratitude they get from me yeah exactly all right you must have had a real tough time with mike more awful people kara just saying okay

yeah here's another one from our favorite one of our favorite comedians mike breviglia let's listen

hey kara and scott love the show my wife jenny and i listen to every episode here's my prediction for 2024 someone some genius who i do not know comes up with something in to replace text messages.

There's too many, too many text messages.

Like the other day I woke up from a nap and it was just like, your uncle's in intensive care.

Here's your brother's Wordle score.

Your wife wants you to pick up paper towels at the store.

And I'm just like, okay, thumbs up, thumbs down.

Ha ha ha.

No, ha ha.

And I just like, I can't take it anymore.

I'm thinking, I don't know, maybe like a flip phone that does Uber.

I'm not in tech.

That's my prediction.

All right.

Love you guys.

I love Mike Berbiglia.

Yeah, so do I.

By the way,

Old Man on the Pool.

It's from the theater show, which was wonderful.

You saw it.

Which you went to, and I took my son to in London.

Yeah, it's great.

And it's on Netflix.

I would recommend it.

I'm going to watch it again.

Also, I may note, he was in a Taylor Swift video this year.

This year.

He was.

Yeah, he played her son.

He played her son.

KFC has a Taylor Swift special.

It's two long, skinny legs and a left wing.

All right.

I have so much respect for her, I'm beginning, I've morphed into objectification.

Just so you know, anyone out there, I see that.

It never morphs into objectification.

Let me get back to Mike's question.

I agree.

Text messages is now like email.

There's a big story in the Atlantic about people just stop returning your emails completely.

Emails never really go away, even if everyone predicts their death.

Texts feel like that now.

It feels like emails now.

And he's right.

What is the solution?

I don't know.

But he's absolutely right.

They become annoying and invasive and problematic.

But there is no real solution yet to them.

I don't know.

I hate to say this because it's part of our democracy, but if you decide to give money to a candidate and somehow they get your phone number and you end up in the DNC data, I literally hear,

I am close personal friends with Charles Schumer.

Senator Schumer texts me late at night and at some point he's going to start to

send me dick pics or something.

But he's like, hey, friend, just a quick note to say, do you want to chip in five bucks to save democracy?

I mean, fucking four times a day I hear from Senator Schumer.

Me too.

I have the same thing.

My mother gets it on the opposite side for the Trump people.

I have to take them off her phone.

Yeah.

So what do you think?

What could replace it?

Do we have any ideas for Mike?

I don't know.

What are these AI projections on your hand?

You know what I've done?

I don't know if you've done this.

So my text message box becomes polluted.

Then I go to WhatsApp.

That's clean for a little while.

And over time, I find WhatsApp and Telegraph are less polluted.

All right, Mike, go to WhatsApp and Telegraph.

That's our only suggestion.

There's not been real innovation in email or text at all.

You know, they're very basic, but there certainly could be.

It's a a good idea, actually, Mike.

What could it be?

It could be like AI could just bring you the ones that make sense.

Although you kind of have to hear about your uncle being in the hospital.

My only connection to the outside world is room service right now.

I'm just staying in my room, eating edibles and a kid.

Our show runs on text messages, doesn't it?

Our show does.

It does.

There's no way.

You don't really do email.

You do text messages.

Tara does not do email.

I give it up.

I'm like the Atlanta.

I just, it's useless.

I do it sometimes, but not really as little as possible.

Anyway, good one, Mike.

Congratulations.

Listen to watch his show.

He's an amazing guy, old man in the pool.

It's wonderful and touching and beautiful.

And I'm excited to see it again.

All right, Scott, one more quick break.

We'll make some predictions of our own for 2024.

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Okay, Scott, now it's time for our predictions, of which we're not ready at all.

But go for it, Scott.

You start and I'll think of one while you're talking.

You haven't even thought of yours yet?

I have.

I have.

Go ahead.

Okay, so I'm just randomly picking three.

And I can't help but play a geopolitical commentator on television.

So

I've said this before.

I think that the kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Israel are going to normalize relations.

And I'd like to think that peace and prosperity are going to have a second chance or newfound vigor as the two largest economies normalize relations.

I think that President Biden sending these carrier-strike forces has ring-fenced the conflict.

I think the whole world is coming to the important recognition that you can have empathy for one side, and that doesn't immediately prohibit you from having empathy for the other.

And so I'm just hopeful that the normalization of

relations between the kingdom and Israel will create a lot of economic incentives to maintain something resembling peace.

I'd also say that it's not possible with the current leadership on either side, but anyways, longer conversation.

Normalization of relations in 2024 between the Kingdom and Israel.

I believe that the world's largest tax cut in history is about to take place in 2024 as the U.S.

and China and Chinese

relations thaw.

I think there's going to be a new bear hug.

I think that inflation in the United States is an existential threat across not only the United States, but governments are overthrown.

If Roe v.

Wade is overturned, people are upset about it, but only a small, a very small number of households are actually impacted.

Inflation hits people every day, and it's literally the number one cause of why governments are overthrown or political parties are thrown out of office.

So the U.S.

and the West have an inflation problem.

China has hit real roadblocks economically, whether you look at their stock market, some of their biggest real estate companies going out of business.

And with a one-party system, if you have economic calamity, you tempt or you risk revolution.

And I think that while two years ago, they were definitely feeling

very emboldened, I think China now recognizes they cannot take their economic growth for granted.

They have had real economic issues the last two years.

And the fastest way out of inflation and to renew economic growth across the largest and second largest economies in the world are for the two to kiss and make up.

And the IP and innovation of the U.S.

combined with the industrial and manufacturing might of China creates every single product in the world for a lower price and a higher quality.

The incentives are lining up for both parties to put their differences aside and re-embrace each other.

So a normalization or a thawing of U.S.-Sino relations in 2024.

All right.

And I think, and my final one is,

I think that we're going to see, actually, two more, a massive amount of disinformation from AI and Q1 and Q2 said that's before around the election.

And I think travel stocks are ranging from Expedia to,

I don't know what's another Airbnb, by the way, way, I'm a holder in Airbnb, not in Expedia, are going to boom.

I think the travel industry is going to boom.

And unfortunately, there's a very dark side to this.

And I think the reason they're going to boom is I think people in their 20s, a lot of them, have just given up on the traditional dream of owning a home.

And because they're no longer saving two, three, five grand a year in hopes of moving into a home in the late 20s or early 30s, They're going to have more disposable income and they're going to decide to spend it on travel is the traditional American dream of buying a home has just become kind of out of reach for them.

And I think the travel industry is going to be the unfortunate beneficiary of all this additional disposable income that traditionally has gone into saving for people's first home.

14 million homes have been formed in the last 10 years and only 11 million homes have been built.

Average cost of a home pre-pandemic was $290.

It's now $420.

And then you couple that with interest rates going from 3% to 7%.

The American dream is now a hallucination for most people when it comes to home ownership.

And I think people are going to spend more money on travel, travel stocks to boom.

Wow.

That's a lot.

All right.

I have

two, I think.

One, I think, big one.

I don't think Donald Trump is going to be the president of the United States.

I think Joe Biden's going to win.

And I'm going to say that now.

I know these polls are going this way.

I think the American people have had it with him.

And the more you see of Uncle Crazy, the less you're going to like what you see and remind you of bad times.

I don't think you're going to remember the tax cuts.

I don't think you'll remember anything else.

And I think the people will start to feel better about the economy over the next year.

I think the age thing is a significant issue, obviously, but he's been doing so well.

And I think people are just going to bite the bullet and vote for Joe Biden.

And also, there's some real signs the Republican National Committee is way down in fundraising, both small donor and big donor.

People don't want to give money that it's going to help Donald Trump, I think.

And people are very nervous about it.

So I'm going to go out on limb.

He's not going to be the president.

I think we should calm the fuck down.

I don't think he will.

I think it'd be a disaster, obviously.

But I don't think the American people,

every time there's that Kansas thing happening or what happened in Michigan with the judge, or they always go the other way that everyone is predicting.

And these right-wingers are like, we've got it now, Glenn Yunken.

And I said the same thing about Glenn Yunken.

I was talking to a lot of people.

I think people want to move on.

And there should be

the only caveat is this, is these third-party things.

And we'll see.

There could be issues around that.

But I just have this feeling.

People are like, let's just stick with the capitalists.

You have a good gut on predictions around politics.

Let me ask you a couple of follow-ups.

Do you think Trump goes to jail?

Yes.

Yes.

Every lawyer I talk to.

There's no.

Pre- or post-election.

Well, as long as he gets convicted before the election, if not, he can pardon himself or there'll be a whole mess of things.

But that'll be his whole administration, is him partying himself and not getting anything done.

So it'll be about him.

He'll be just outrageous and it'll be a useless waste of our time.

And I don't think people want to waste their time anymore.

What about these third-party candidates?

Do you think Joe Manchin's going to run?

Do you think RFKG is going to be?

I think he doesn't have the set.

Speaking of small,

no, I don't think he has the set.

I think he's an egomaniac and a narcissist, but I don't think he has what it takes.

I think he likes to be in the middle of things, but not the hard work of being a president and

doing the things it takes.

I even think Trump has got more of a stamina than Joe Manchin.

I think both of them do.

I don't think he has stamina.

I don't know, but I think RFK will fade as people get to know more about him.

I know a lot of people posted about going home and all these young people saying, I'm not going to vote for Joe Biden because of the Israel thing.

That's a year from now.

I think when they're faced with Donald Trump, they're not going to pull the, they're not going to stay home and they're not going to, they know what that means.

I think people will man up and do the right thing.

Anyway, that's my, on that.

And in tech,

I think the Justice Department might win this case with Google.

I don't know.

It's looking that way, isn't it?

Yeah, I think they will.

I think they've got a good case.

I think it's a backward-looking case, and they should be focusing on forward-looking things, but that's not the Justice Department's job here.

So, I do think they're going to win it.

I don't know what the real repercussions will be because

it's a story of the past, and search certainly has changed.

That shouldn't be Google's defense here from what they did then, right?

It can't say, well, murder's legal now or whatever.

You know,

they don't have an excuse.

What happened happened, and I think they'll probably have an issue.

I think they will lose this case, and then it'll just keep going on and on.

But I do think the government might prevail here.

I don't know about these Facebook cases.

They've got a higher bar to prove on things, but

it certainly looks like maybe a good year for

at least the Justice Department, not so much for regulatory bodies necessarily.

Just a prediction on top of a prediction.

If they are in fact found guilty and the remedy may be the breakup.

And it's not entirely clear, even if they are found guilty, if that would be the remedy.

But if the remedy looks like it's going to be a breakup,

Google stock will outperform every other big tech

stock in 2024.

You are 100% right.

YouTube is a juggernaut on its own.

I mean, obviously, search is just the ultimate toll booth.

And if they were to spin their AI and cloud division together, some of the parts, Google on a multiple of revenue basis is cheaper than every other big talk, big tech software.

You're 100% right.

You're 100% right about that.

I think that'll be interesting.

You're right.

It could be.

I would spin off YouTube if I were there.

They've got plenty there to work with.

So we'll see.

Those are my predictions.

I hope you're right.

I hope you're right on all of that.

I shall be.

I'm good on the political side.

I seem to be good on the political.

I just think people will be, once they see that guy again, they've seen little bits of him.

They'll be like, oh, that guy.

That guy.

Ugh, I hate that guy.

I hope you're right.

The data says we're both wrong.

Every time it does.

Nope.

The data doesn't.

The polling does.

The polling was wrong about everything.

And I'm sorry.

I just don't believe polls.

I think there's a silent majority of people who just want to move on from him first.

Maybe they want to, they might want to move on from Biden, but they really want to move on from him.

Well, you know what, you know what I did last night.

I'm alone.

I was alone, had an edible, and I took a poll and stuck it up my ass.

All right, and

we're going to do that.

I'll be here all week, Trava Ville.

Let me tell you one other prediction.

Scott will continue to make tasteless jokes no matter what I do.

And I'm thinking of calling in the Johnson.

That's right.

I don't want to be wrong.

Wait, John Cantor, call me.

What can we do to jail him with Donald Trump?

Free Perrara.

Anyway, Scott, that's the the show.

Uh, please read us out.

Today's show is produced by Larry Naiman, Zoe Marcus, Taylor Griffin, and Travis Larchuk.

Ernie Inner Totten engineered this episode.

Thanks also to Drew Burrows, Miles Severo, and Gadda McBain.

Make sure you subscribe to the show wherever you listen to podcasts.

Thank you for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media.

We'll be back for another breakdown of all things tech and business.

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